Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ERNESTO-24
in Bermuda, Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Turks and Caicos Islands, Dominican Republic, Virgin Islands British, Montserrat, Dominica

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 201437
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
300 PM GMT Tue Aug 20 2024

Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and cold sea-surface
temperatures have caused Ernesto to lose tropical characteristics
this morning. The cyclone lacks organized convection, and the
low-level center is becoming exposed as dry air wraps into the
circulation. Also, GFS phase diagrams indicate Ernesto no longer has
a warm-core structure. Thus, it appears the cyclone has completed
its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. Despite these structural
changes, nearby ship observations indicate Ernesto remains a
powerful cyclone with storm-force winds in its southern semicircle.
Based on these observations, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving quickly northeastward (055/32
kt) within the flow between a deep-layer trough over the north
Atlantic and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. An even
faster east-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday as
the cyclone remains embedded within strong steering currents. The
system is forecast to merge with a frontal system and become
extratropical by tonight, and the low should dissipate on Wednesday
over the northeastern Atlantic. Although some weakening is expected
during the next day or so, the cyclone will maintain a large wind
field to the south of its center.

This is the last NHC advisory on Ernesto. Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 49.0N 44.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0000Z 50.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 21/1200Z 52.8N 23.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201436
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
300 PM GMT Tue Aug 20 2024

...ERNESTO BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.0N 44.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ernesto was located near latitude 49.0 North, longitude 44.7 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 37 mph
(59 km/h), and an even faster east-northeastward motion is expected
during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected tonight and on Wednesday, and
post-tropical Ernesto is forecast to merge with a frontal system and
dissipate by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by post-tropical Ernesto are affecting the
northeast coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada. The swells
and associated life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
should gradually subside during the next day or so. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Ernesto. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 201435
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N 44.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 200SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 420SE 420SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N 44.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.3N 47.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 210SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.8N 23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 240SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.0N 44.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ERNESTO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200838
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024

Increasingly strong westerly vertical wind shear is affecting the
cyclone, displacing most of the remaining deep convection to the
east of the low-level center. The system's cloud pattern is
already taking on a less tropical-looking appearance, making
intensity estimates via the Dvorak technique somewhat problematic.
However, a couple of ship reports of winds of 58 and 51 kt to the
east of the center indicate that Ernesto is still near hurricane
strength. Thus, the advisory intensity is set at 65 kt.

The hurricane has been accelerating northeastward and the initial
motion estimate is 050/31 kt. Ernesto is embedded within a strong
deep-layer flow between a large trough over the northeastern U.S.
and a ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic. In a day or so,
an even faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast is
likely as the cyclone comes more under the influence of a large
deep-layer cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The official
track forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction, and follows
the multi-model consensus solution.

Continued weakening is likely as Ernesto moves over cold water and
remains under the influence of strong shear. Based on current
trends and simulated satellite imagery from the global models, the
system's deep convection should be disrupted to the point that
Ernesto will have become a post-tropical cyclone in about 12 hours.
In 24 hours, the guidance shows a frontal appearance indicating
extratropical transition. In 36 hours or so, Ernesto is predicted
to open up into a trough over the northeastern Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. The effects of swells generated by Ernesto on the coasts of
Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada should diminish
during the next day or so. Until then, beach goers should be aware
that there still could be a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents and should stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 47.3N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/0600Z 52.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024

...ERNESTO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.3N 50.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 47.3 North, longitude 50.0 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h). An even faster
motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto
will move over the open North Atlantic today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and
Ernesto should lose its tropical characteristics later today,
and dissipate on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the
northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. The
swells and the associated life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions should gradually subside during the next day or so.
Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out
of the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200836
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 50.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT.......180NE 190SE 140SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 360SE 360SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 50.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.6N 51.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 170SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 52.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 220SE 170SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.3N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200231
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

Satellite imagery shows that the convective structure of Ernesto is
decaying due to increasing shear and passage over colder water,
with most of the remaining convection now in the northeastern
quadrant. However, Canadian radar shows the remaining convection
still has a good tropical cyclone banding pattern. Satellite
intensity estimates were mostly near 75 kt at 00Z, and based on the
loss of organization since that time the initial intensity is
decreased to 70 kt.

Ernesto should continue steady to rapid weakening due to shear and
cold water. The new intensity forecast has the cyclone losing its
remaining convection and becoming a post-tropical low by 24 h.
However, this could be generous, and the system could become
post-tropical at any time. After 24 h, Ernesto is going to become
involved with a large baroclinic low developing near Iceland, and
as this occurs it is likely to develop or merge with a frontal zone
to become extratropical. The system is expected to degenerate to a
trough on the south side of the larger low by 48 h.

The hurricane is now accelerating northeastward with the initial
motion of 050/30 kt. The strong flow between an approaching mid- to
upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the
subtropical central Atlantic should cause the cyclone to accelerate
even more during the next 24 h, and a rapid east-northeastward
motion should continue as the baroclinic low becomes the
predominant steering influence. The NHC track forecast remains near
the middle of the tightly clustered models and has no significant
change since the previous advisory.


Key Messages:

1. The effects of swells generated by Ernesto on the coasts of
Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada should diminish
during the next day or so. Until then, beach goers should be aware
that there still could be a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents and should stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards.

2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to
portions of southeastern Newfoundland during the next several hours.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 45.7N 53.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 48.0N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 50.6N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/1200Z 52.8N 24.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 22/0000Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200230
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.7N 53.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT.......180NE 190SE 140SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 330SE 300SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.7N 53.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 55.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 48.0N 47.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 160SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.6N 36.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 200SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.8N 24.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 210SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.7N 53.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200230
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA...
...ERNESTO PASSING SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.7N 53.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto until the center moves into the open Atlantic.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 45.7 North, longitude 53.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). An even faster
motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto
is currently near its closest approach to Newfoundland, and it
should move into the open Atlantic on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast, and Ernesto is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the
northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. The
swells and the associated life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions should gradually subside during the next day or so. In
southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the
possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing
shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 192036
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

Ernesto is maintaining its intensity at high latitudes. The
hurricane continues to have an eye feature, especially in the
mid-levels, and thunderstorms remain most organized north of the
center. Recent microwave images indicate that the circulation has
become titled from southwest to northeast with height, an indication
of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial
intensity is held at 80 kt, in general agreement with the subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates.

Ernesto has likely peaked in strength. Since the hurricane has now
crossed the north wall of the Gulf Stream and moving into an
environment of increasing shear and drier air, steady or rapid
weakening is expected to begin soon. The environmental factors
should also cause extratropical transition, which will likely be
complete Tuesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as
the previous one and in line with the bulk of the guidance.

The hurricane is gradually accelerating to the northeast, or 35
degrees at 23 kt. The strong flow between an approaching mid- to
upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the
subtropical central Atlantic should cause the cyclone to accelerate
even more and turn to the northeast and east-northeast during the
next couple of days. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the tightly clustered models.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Ernesto will continue to affect the coasts
of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada during the next
day or so. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant
risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out
of the water if advised by lifeguards.

2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to
portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 43.8N 56.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 46.4N 51.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 49.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 51.5N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 53.8N 18.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192035
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA...
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.8N 56.1W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 43.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). An even faster
motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto
will pass near southeastern Newfoundland tonight and early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast, and Ernesto is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone early Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the
northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.
Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to
continue in these areas during the next day or so. In southeastern
Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of
coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines
from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from
your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 192035
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 56.1W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 190SE 150SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 280SE 250SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 56.1W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 57.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 51.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 160SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.2N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 200SE 160SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.5N 30.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 210SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 53.8N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 180SE 150SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 56.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 191447
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 58.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 270SE 240SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 58.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 59.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.5N 54.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 150SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 49.9N 36.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 170SE 170SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.2N 24.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 170SE 170SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.8N 58.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191447
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.8N 58.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 41.8 North, longitude 58.5 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast and east-northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern
Newfoundland tonight and early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected
to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the
northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.
Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to
continue in these areas during the next day or so. In southeastern
Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of
coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines
from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from
your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 191448
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

Ernesto continues to slowly gain strength. Satellite images
indicate that the eye of the hurricane has become a little better
defined, but the storm still has a convective asymmetry with the
strongest thunderstorms on the north side. The latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB were 4.5/77 kt and the objective
satellite guidance is a little higher. Based on the data and the
improved structure, the initial wind speed is increased to 80 kt.
A very recent ASCAT pass indicated that Ernesto remains a large
tropical cyclone. The strongest winds and largest radius of
hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds are located in the
southeastern quadrant.

The hurricane is gradually accelerating to the north-northeast, or
30 degrees at 19 kt. The strong flow between an approaching mid-
to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the
subtropical central Atlantic should cause the cyclone to accelerate
even more and turn to the northeast and east-northeast during the
next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Ernesto is now crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and will
soon be moving over sharply cooler SSTs. In addition, the hurricane
will be moving into an environment of stronger shear and drier air.
All of these conditions should lead to weakening very soon and
extratropical transition, which is expected to be complete by early
Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one,
and follows the GFS guidance during the extratropical phase.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Ernesto will continue to affect the coasts
of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada during the next
day or so. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant
risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out
of the water if advised by lifeguards.

2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to
portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 41.8N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 44.5N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0000Z 49.9N 36.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1200Z 52.2N 24.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190841
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 60.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 60.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 61.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.7N 57.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 150SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 170SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 50.8N 30.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 53.0N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 170SE 130SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 60.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190844
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

Satellite imagery shows that Ernesto's eye is irregularly-shaped,
with fairly cold convective cloud tops over the northern portion of
the circulation. The southwestern part of the high cloud canopy is
beginning to become slightly blunted, which suggests some
southwesterly shear is beginning to affect the system. The
various objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS indicate that, a
couple of hours ago, the hurricane strengthened a little more, but
recently the overall cloud pattern appears to have become a little
less organized. This suggests that Ernesto has stopped
strengthening, and the current intensity estimate is set at 75 kt
which is in general agreement with subjective Dvorak T-numbers.

Center fixes indicate a gradual increase in forward speed overnight
and the initial motion estimate is 030/18 kt. Ernesto is expected
to accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a large deep-layer
trough near the U.S. east coast for the next 24 hours or so. This
motion should bring the center of the cyclone near southeastern
Newfoundland tonight or early Tuesday. Based on the NHC
forecast, most of the stronger winds in the system's circulation
are expected to stay offshore of Newfoundland. Thereafter, a
faster east-northeastward motion over the North Atlantic is forecast
while the cyclone becomes fully embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies. In 2-3 days, Ernesto is likely to open up into a
trough while merging with a large extratropical low to the south of
Iceland. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical
model consensus and is just slightly to the north of the previous
NHC prediction.

Ernesto will be traversing significantly cooler waters later today
and will be impacted by increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind
shear during the next day or two. Therefore, a weakening trend
should begin by tonight or earlier. The official intensity forecast
is quite similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS numerical guidance.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that the
system will become post-tropical within the next day or so.


Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to
affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers
should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised
by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to
portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 40.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 42.7N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0600Z 50.8N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/1800Z 53.0N 19.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190843
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 60.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 60.5 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a turn
toward the northeast and east-northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland tonight
and early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today,
and a weakening trend is expected to begin tonight. Ernesto is
expected to lose tropical characteristics during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely
to continue in these areas during the next couple of days. In
southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the
possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing
shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190233
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 210SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 40.9N 59.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.3N 54.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.4N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 150SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.0N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.5N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 170SE 130SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 61.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190234
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

Ernesto continues to have a good structure this evening with a
partly cloud-filled eye surrounded by bands of convection, although
the convective cloud tops are not quite as cold as they were 6 h
ago. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now
near 65 kt, while various objective estimates are now near 75 kt.
The initial intensity is increased to 70 kt based on a blend of
these data.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 6-12 h
before Ernesto moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream.
After that, the system should quickly decay as it moves over colder
water and encounters increasing southwesterly shear. The cyclone
should become an extratropical low by 36 h as it passes south of
southeastern Newfoundland, and by 72 h it should be absorbed into a
larger non-tropical low developing south of Iceland. The new
intensity forecast is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance
for the first 12 h, and after that lies near the intensity
consensus.

The initial motion is now 030/17 kt. A northeastward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected over the next 24-36 h as Ernesto
becomes caught up in the flow between a large deep-layer trough
over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge centered to the
hurricane's southeast. This motion should bring the center south
of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday night or early Tuesday
morning, with most of the wind field staying offshore. A more
east-northeastward motion is expected thereafter before the cyclone
becomes absorbed by the aforementioned larger extratropical
cyclone. The tightly clustered track guidance has shifted a little
to the north since the last advisory, so the new track forecast is a
little north of the previous track.


Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to
affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers
should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised
by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 38.5N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 40.9N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 44.3N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 47.4N 46.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0000Z 50.0N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/1200Z 52.5N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190233
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 61.4 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected tonight.
A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast and an additional
increase in forward speed are expected on Monday and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. After
that, Ernesto should weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become
post-tropical on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely
to continue in these areas during the next couple of days. In
southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the
possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing
shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 182042
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

The structure of Ernesto this afternoon has continued to improve,
with a more distinct eye becoming apparent on recent visible and
infrared satellite images. This improving inner-core structure is
also exhibited in a 1808 UTC GMI microwave pass that also showed a
closed cyan ring on the 37-GHz color composite channel, which could
be a harbinger for more significant intensification. While
subjective Dvorak estimates have not increased much this afternoon,
the objective intensity values now range from 60-69 kt and so the
initial intensity was raised to 65 kt, making Ernesto a hurricane
again. Ernesto's wind field is a bit smaller than yesterday, as
indicated by a helpful set of scatterometer passes over Ernesto that
were useful to adjust the 34- and 50-kt wind radii earlier today.

With the improving inner-core structure, Ernesto is looking
increasingly likely to take advantage of the favorable short-term
conditions until the hurricane reaches the northern extent of the
Gulf Stream at around 40 N. The raw output form the
hurricane-regional model guidance now all show an overnight or
Monday morning peak intensity of 75-kt or higher in the next 12-24
h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a bit more
intensification overnight. However, Ernesto will quickly move over
cooler ocean waters just after 12 h and weakening will likely be
well underway by tomorrow afternoon. Shear is also forecast to
increase after that time as well, and my best guess at the timing of
extratropical transition, diagnosed by FSU cyclone-phase space
diagrams and GFS/EC simulated satellite imagery, is shortly after
36 h on Tuesday morning as Ernesto passes just southeast of
Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is on the upper-end of the
interpolated guidance aids in 12 h, but falls back to the
multi-model intensity mean towards the end of its lifespan in 60-h
where the cyclone will open up into a trough over the central North
Atlantic.

Ernesto continues its gradual acceleration north-northeast,
estimated now at 020/15-kt. A further increase in forward motion
with a turn more northeastward is anticipated over the next 24-36 h
as Ernesto becomes caught up in the flow between a large deep-layer
trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge centered to the
hurricane's southeast. A turn more east-northeastward is expected
thereafter before the cyclone becomes absorbed by a larger
extratropical cyclone located further north between Greenland and
Iceland. The track guidance this cycle remains tightly clustered
and pretty close to the prior forecast track, and only slight track
adjustments were made this cycle. On this track, Ernesto should
make its closest approach to Newfoundland just to the southeast
early Tuesday morning, with the bulk of the cyclone's wind field
staying offshore of the Canadian Provence.

Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to
affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers
should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised
by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 37.1N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 39.2N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 42.6N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 46.1N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 48.9N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/0600Z 51.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 182041
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 180SW 230NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.2N 60.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.6N 57.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 130SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.1N 50.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 150SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 48.9N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 170SE 110SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182041
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...ERNESTO IS A HURRICANE AGAIN...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 62.3W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 62.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight,
followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass
near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional intensification is forecast
over the next 12 hours followed by weakening before Ernesto becomes
a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely
to continue in these areas during the next couple of days. In
southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the
possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing
shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181448
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

After struggling to produce a lot of deep central convection over
the past 24 hours, Ernesto resembles more of a typical tropical
cyclone this morning, as convection continues to burst and wrap
around the center. There have also been hints of a cloud-filled eye
feature showing up on visible satellite imagery. However, subjective
and objective intensity estimates have not yet responded to the
modest improvement in Ernesto's structure on satellite, and the
initial intensity will remain just under hurricane intensity at
60 kt this advisory.

Ernesto has about a 12-18 h window to intensify back into a
hurricane while the shear remains low, and sea-surface temperatures
(SSTs) are between 27-28 C before the cyclone reaches the north wall
of the Gulf Stream. After Ernesto crosses this feature, the SSTs
sharply decrease and shear markedly increases, both which should
initiate extratropical transition. This process should be complete
in about 48 h with the cyclone opening up into a trough as it is
absorbed by another extratropical cyclone beyond 72 h. The NHC
intensity forecast is largely an update from the previous cycle, in
good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance.

The tropical cyclone is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward,
estimated at 020/14 kt. There is little change in the forecast track
thinking, with a large mid-latitude trough moving into the U.S. East
Coast that, in combination with a large subtropical ridge to the
southeast, is expected to cause Ernesto to increase in forward speed
along with a turn more northeastward over the next couple of days.
On this track, Ernesto should make its closest approach to
Newfoundland just to the southeast early Tuesday morning, with the
bulk of the cyclone's wind field staying offshore of the Canadian
Provence. After post-tropical transition, the cyclone is expected to
turn east-northeastward until its absorbed by a larger extratropical
cyclone. The track guidance this cycle was a bit slower and touch
further west early on, but ultimately the latest NHC track forecast
ends up very close to the prior one after 24 h.


Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to
affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers
should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised
by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 36.1N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 38.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 41.1N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 44.6N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/0000Z 50.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1200Z 52.1N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181445
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TODAY...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC
CANADA TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 62.5W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 880 MI...1410 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please
monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 62.5 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and some
increase in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and Ernesto is forecast
to regain hurricane status. The cyclone is forecast to become
post-tropical after it passes by southeastern Newfoundland by
Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely
in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern
Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of
coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines
from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from
your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181442
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 62.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 180SW 230NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 62.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.1N 58.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.6N 53.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 170SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.5N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 170SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.1N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 62.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180855 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 27...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

Corrected text of second key message.

Ernesto's cloud pattern hasn't changed much overnight, and lacks a
well-defined eye feature. Deep convection has been trying to
wrap around the eastern portion of the circulation, giving the
system a fairly symmetric overall appearance. The current
intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is in good agreement with
the latest objective, AID, estimates from UW-CIMSS. Subjective
Dvorak satellite estimates are somewhat lower. Unfortunately the
most recent scatterometer overpasses missed most of the circulation.

The tropical cyclone continues on a rather slow north-northeastward
heading, with an initial motion estimate of 025/8 kt. The steering
flow on the east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough approaching
the U.S. east coast should cause an increase in forward speed during
the next day or so along with a turn toward the northeast. In 2-3
days, Ernesto is likely to turn toward the east-northeast with
additional acceleration as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies over the north Atlantic. The track guidance models
remain in good agreement, and little changes to the previous NHC
track forecast were required.

Ernesto is still over warm waters, and should remain over SSTs of
at least 27 deg C for the next 24 hours or so. Also, vertical wind
shear is forecast to remain low today with upper-level divergence
diagnosed over the area by the SHIPS model diagnostics. These
environmental factors favor a short period of restrengthening
today, and this reflected in the official forecast. In 36-48
hours, the cyclone will encounter much cooler waters and this
should cause weakening. Simulated IR satellite imagery from the
global models show an increasingly asymmetric cloud structure by
the time the system passes near Newfoundland, and the official
forecast indicates post-tropical transition by 48 hours. Ernesto
is predicted to open up and become a large trough over the
northeastern Atlantic by 96 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to
affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be
aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and
rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto could bring wind and wave impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 34.6N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 36.4N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 39.4N 60.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 42.9N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0600Z 51.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180846
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

Ernesto's cloud pattern hasn't changed much overnight, and lacks a
well-defined eye feature. Deep convection has been trying to
wrap around the eastern portion of the circulation, giving the
system a fairly symmetric overall appearance. The current
intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is in good agreement with
the latest objective, AID, estimates from UW-CIMSS. Subjective
Dvorak satellite estimates are somewhat lower. Unfortunately the
most recent scatterometer overpasses missed most of the circulation.

The tropical cyclone continues on a rather slow north-northeastward
heading, with an initial motion estimate of 025/8 kt. The steering
flow on the east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough approaching
the U.S. east coast should cause an increase in forward speed during
the next day or so along with a turn toward the northeast. In 2-3
days, Ernesto is likely to turn toward the east-northeast with
additional acceleration as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies over the north Atlantic. The track guidance models
remain in good agreement, and little changes to the previous NHC
track forecast were required.

Ernesto is still over warm waters, and should remain over SSTs of
at least 27 deg C for the next 24 hours or so. Also, vertical wind
shear is forecast to remain low today with upper-level divergence
diagnosed over the area by the SHIPS model diagnostics. These
environmental factors favor a short period of restrengthening
today, and this reflected in the official forecast. In 36-48
hours, the cyclone will encounter much cooler waters and this
should cause weakening. Simulated IR satellite imagery from the
global models show an increasingly asymmetric cloud structure by
the time the system passes near Newfoundland, and the official
forecast indicates post-tropical transition by 48 hours. Ernesto
is predicted to open up and become a large trough over the
northeastern Atlantic by 96 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to
affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be
aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and
rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave and wave impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 34.6N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 36.4N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 39.4N 60.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 42.9N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0600Z 51.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180843
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...ERNESTO COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME TODAY...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 63.0W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area
later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 63.0 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and some
increase in forward speed is forecast later today, followed by a
turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-intensification is possible later today, and Ernesto
could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become
post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or
Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely
in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180842
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 63.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 63.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 63.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.4N 62.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.4N 60.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.9N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 63.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180548
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 63.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 63.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and some
increase in forward speed is forecast to begin later today, followed
by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue
moving away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern
Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-intensification is possible later today or tonight,
and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely
become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night
or Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on Bermuda
for the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas
of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches
or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall across Bermuda, with storm total amounts
of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result
in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the
water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda continue to show
limited convection associated with Ernesto, with the strongest
convection in a poorly-defined eyewall in the northern semicircle.
This is likely due to a tongue of dry air wrapping around the
system from the northwest into the central core. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
decreased a little more since the last advisory, and based on this
the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt.

The initial motion is 030/7 kt. This slow motion should continue
for the next 6-12 h as a mid-latitude shortwave ridge passes to the
north of Ernesto. After that, southwesterly flow on the east side
of a mid-latitude trough moving through the eastern United States
should cause the cyclone to accelerate to the north-northeast,
northeast, and eventually east-northeast. This motion should bring
the center just southeast of Newfoundland late Monday and Monday
night, with the system moving into the open north Atlantic
thereafter. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the
new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track.

Little change in strength is expected tonight while Ernesto tries
to mix out the dry air tongue. After that, upper-level divergence
is forecast to increase while the cyclone is still over relatively
warm water. This could allow some modest re-intensification as
show by the dynamical models, and this remains reflected in the
intensity forecast. After 36 h, the cyclone should weaken as it
moves over colder water and begins extratropical transition.
Transition should be complete by 60 h, and and the post-tropical low
is expected to degenerate to a trough over the northeastern
Atlantic between 72-96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is still moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not quite over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves should continue for a few more hours. The heavy
rains will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.

2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 63.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 35.3N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 37.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 41.3N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 44.7N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0000Z 50.4N 36.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180237
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 63.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 63.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 62.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N 61.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.3N 58.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.7N 53.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.4N 36.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 63.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 63.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area on
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 63.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. An
acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on
Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast
occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ernesto will move away from Bermuda tonight and pass near
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight.
Some intensification is possible Sunday and Sunday night, and
Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely
become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night
or Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda
for the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas
of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches
or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall through Saturday night across Bermuda,
with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This
rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding to the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the
water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 172336
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 63.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area
Sunday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 63.7 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this slow
motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration
toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a
turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly
move away from Bermuda through tonight and pass near southeastern
Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane
strength through Monday. The cyclone will likely become
post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or
Tuesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda
for the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas
of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall through tonight across Bermuda,
with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This
rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding to the island, especially in low-lying areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the
water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 172032
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

Recent infrared and microwave imagery indicate show that Ernesto's
convective activity is a little thin, with the deepest convection
located in a small band just north of the center. Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased through the
day, and combined with the earlier data from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft--which only measured 700-mb wind of 74 kt--it is estimated
that Ernesto's maximum sustained winds are near 65 kt.

Ernesto has slowed down during the day while moving away from
Bermuda, and the initial motion is north-northeastward (030
degrees) at 5 kt. This slow motion is likely to continue for the
next 12 hours or so, before the flow increases ahead of an
approaching trough and causes Ernesto to accelerate toward the
north-northeast on Sunday. The cyclone is forecast to turn
northeastward on Monday, and model guidance continues to show the
center passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland late Monday or
Monday night. After passing Newfoundland, Ernesto is expected to
accelerate further toward the east-northeast over the north
Atlantic. The track guidance is very tightly packed through 72
hours, and no significant changes were required from the previous
NHC forecast.

Despite Ernesto's recent weakening, the hurricane will move over
warm waters of 28 degrees Celsius and within a light-shear
environment for the next 24 hours or so. The storm's current broad
structure may not allow for significant strengthening within this
otherwise favorable environment, but many of the dynamical
hurricane models, global models, and consensus aids suggest that
Ernesto could re-intensity by 5-10 kt over the next day or so.
This is reflected in the official intensity forecast. Weakening
should begin by 48 hours due increasing shear and Ernesto moving
over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the cyclone is
likely to become post-tropical by 60 hours while it is passing near
southeastern Newfoundland. The GFS and ECMWF models indicate that
dissipation should occur by day 4 when the circulation opens up
into a trough over the north Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves should continue through tonight. The heavy rains
will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding,
especially in low-lying areas on the island.

2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 33.3N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 34.3N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 36.5N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 39.5N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 43.0N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 48.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 172031
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.0W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..315NE 305SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.0W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 64.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.3N 63.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.5N 60.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.0N 57.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 48.9N 42.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 64.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 172031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO INCHING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 64.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area
Sunday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 64.0 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
slow motion is expected to continue through tonight. An
acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on
Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast
occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda through
tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and
Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane
strength through Monday. The cyclone will likely become
post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or
Tuesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda
through tonight, with hurricane-force gusts possible in rainbands.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas
of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall through tonight across Bermuda,
with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This
rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding to the island, especially in low-lying areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the
water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171746
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...SQUALLY WEATHER STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA AS ERNESTO SLOWS DOWN...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 64.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has changed the Hurricane Warning for
Bermuda to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 64.2 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. An
acceleration toward the north-northeast should begin later on
Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast
occurring late Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda today and pass
near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km). Bermuda's L.F. Wade International Airport recently
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph
(100 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda
through tonight, with hurricane-force gusts possible in rainbands.

STORM SURGE: Significant coastal flooding is still possible on
Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and will
reach portions of Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next
couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather
office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 171453
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made a couple of
passes through Ernesto this morning and only found 700-mb flight
level winds as high as 74 kt--significantly lower than the maximum
winds reported by the mission yesterday evening and overnight. The
initial intensity is therefore set at 70 kt for this advisory, and
even that could be a bit generous. Although the central pressure
has not risen much, Ernesto's wind field has continued to expand,
and the hurricane is now exhibiting a large rain-free center region
that is just about to move past Bermuda.

The forward motion has slowed a bit more and is now estimated to be
north-northeastward (025 degrees) at 7 kt. Ernesto has been left
behind by a shortwave trough now located near Newfoundland, and
therefore a continued slow motion toward the north-northeast is
forecast for the next day or so until another trough to the west
gets closer. Ernesto should begin accelerating on Sunday as it
heads toward Atlantic Canada, turning northeastward and passing
very near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
The guidance has again slowed down on this cycle, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Although deep-layer shear is forecast to diminish a bit during the
next 24 hours while Ernesto remains over waters of 28 degrees
Celsius, the structure of the hurricane and dry air within the
circulation suggest that the storm may not be able to re-intensity
much, if at all. The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end of
the guidance and does keep Ernesto as a hurricane for the next 48
hours. Weakening is expected after that time, and global model
fields suggest Ernesto should become extratropical by 72 hours
while or just after passing Newfoundland. A 96-hour point is
provided for continuity, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that
the circulation could open up into a trough over the north Atlantic
by then.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves are likely through tonight. The heavy rains will
likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding,
especially in low-lying areas on the island.

2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 32.9N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 33.7N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 37.9N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 41.3N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 44.9N 54.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 47.7N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z 51.2N 27.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 171452
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 210SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 280SE 260SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.7N 63.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.3N 59.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.9N 54.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 160SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N 47.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 51.2N 27.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 64.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171452
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER STILL OCCURING ON BERMUDA AS ERNESTO MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 64.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1125 MI...1805 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. An
acceleration toward the north-northeast should begin on Sunday,
with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring late
Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto
will slowly move away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern
Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km). An elevated weather station at the National Museum
of Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h)
and a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane-force gusts are possible on Bermuda for a few more
hours. Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue through
this evening or tonight.

STORM SURGE: Significant coastal flooding is still possible on
Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and will
reach portions of Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next
couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather
office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171155
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO'S CENTER BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND WINDS
HAVE PICKED BACK UP ON THE ISLAND...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 64.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 64.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is
then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to slowly depart
Bermuda today and move near or east of Newfoundland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Some
re-intensification is possible late in the weekend before weakening
begins on Monday.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda through the
next several hours. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion,
strong winds will continue on the island through most of today into
this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These
swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada today.
Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these
areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from
your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170857
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of
Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda at about 430 AM
AST, with the National Museum of Bermuda recently reporting light
winds and a central pressure of 972 mb. The system overall has
become less organized as drier air has infiltrated much of the
circulation's southern semicircle. Earlier aircraft reconnaissance
data supported 75-80 kt as an initial intensity, and with the
degradation in the satellite imagery, 75 kt is chosen as the current
intensity (and operational landfall intensity). The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters should be out again in a few hours to sample the
cyclone.

While the current moderate shear is forecast to weaken today, it
will take some time for the vortex to recover from the dry air as
it moves across warm waters north of Bermuda. Thus little change in
intensity is anticipated in the short term, and re-strengthening
could begin tomorrow. This should be a fairly short-lived window,
however, since Ernesto will be crossing the north wall of the Gulf
Stream on Monday while moving into a strong wind shear environment.
Therefore, steady weakening is forecast for the work week, and
Ernesto is expected to complete extratropical transition near or
just east of Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one, a bit lower in the short-term to
account for recent guidance.

Ernesto has turned more to the north-northeast overnight and slowed
down to about 8 kt. The motion should creep in that direction today
as the hurricane is stuck in an area of lighter steering currents,
waiting for the next trough to move off the U.S. East coast. This
slow motion and Ernesto's large size will cause a long duration of
impacts through tonight on Bermuda. The trough should force the
cyclone to accelerate northeastward later in the weekend and early
next week, taking Ernesto near Newfoundland Monday night. The
guidance is again slower than the previous cycle, so the NHC track
forecast is trended in that direction. Global model fields depict
that Ernesto should open into a trough, or become absorbed in a
larger polar low by 120 h over the northern Atlantic ocean, thus the
NHC forecast now shows the system dissipated at that time.

Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring periods of strong winds, storm
surge and battering waves on Bermuda through tonight. A hurricane
warning is in effect for the island, and residents there should
listen to orders from local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall from Ernesto will continue to impact Bermuda
through tonight and will likely result in considerable life-
threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the
island.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days.

4. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Ernesto.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 32.3N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 33.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 36.6N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/0600Z 51.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170855
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.8W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 210SE 110SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 285SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.8W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 65.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.3N 64.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.6N 62.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 51.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 150SE 130SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 64.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170855
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ON BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 64.8W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Surface observations indicate that Ernesto made landfall on the
western side of Bermuda around 430 AM AST (0830 UTC). At 500 AM AST
(0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near
latitude 32.3 North, longitude 64.8 West. Ernesto is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected today. A faster northeastward motion is then expected late
this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto is expected to slowly depart Bermuda today and
move near or east of Newfoundland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today.
Some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend before
weakening begins on Monday.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
The National Museum on Bermuda recently reported a central pressure
of 972 mb (28.71 mb).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda through the
next several hours. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion,
strong winds will continue on the island through most of today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These
swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by tonight.
Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these
areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from
your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170555
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO LASHING BERMUDA WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 65.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 65.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual
slowdown is expected during the next day or so. An accelerating
northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected
to pass near or over Bermuda within a few hours and near or east of
Newfoundland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so,
though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-
storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The L.
F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda recently reported
sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 84 mph (135
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda through the
next several hours. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion,
strong winds will continue on the island through most of today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States.
These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by
tonight. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of
the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170232
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

Ernesto is very near Bermuda. The island has been in the northern
rainbands since this afternoon, and the eyewall is closing in on the
island as seen in Bermuda's Doppler radar images. So far,
tropical-storm-force winds with gusts to hurricane force have been
observed on Bermuda, and the strongest winds will likely occur there
during the next several hours. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating Ernesto this evening and found that the minimum
pressure has been steady around 969 mb. A blend of the latest
flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of about 80
kt. Recent microwave images indicate that the vortex is tilted to
the east-northeast with height due to about 20 kt of
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.

The already tilted vortex coupled with continued moderate to strong
shear and possible intrusions of dry air should cause some weakening
during the next day or so. However, the shear is expected to lessen
during the 24- to 60-h time period, and since Ernesto will still be
over the Gulf Stream Current then, the weakening trend should pause.
In fact, Ernesto is forecast to strengthen some during that time,
following the hurricane regional models and consensus aids. On
Monday, the cyclone is predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf
Stream and track over sharply cooler waters while moving into a
strong wind shear environment. Therefore, steady weakening is
forecast at that point, and Ernesto is expected to complete
extratropical transition shortly after day 3. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

Ernesto is still moving northeastward at 11 kt, however, the
hurricane is expected to slow down soon as the trough off Atlantic
Canada continues to lift out. The expected slower motion and
Ernesto's large size will cause a long duration of impacts through
Saturday night on Bermuda. After the hurricane pulls away from
Bermuda, another trough is forecast to push off the U.S. east coast.
This feature should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward
later in the weekend and early next week, taking Ernesto near
Newfoundland Monday night. The NHC track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the
latest models.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds
and storm surge on Bermuda through Saturday night. A hurricane
warning is in effect for the island. Residents there should listen
to orders from local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact
Bermuda through Saturday and will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 31.4N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 32.6N 64.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 33.7N 64.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 38.1N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 41.5N 59.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 45.1N 54.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 51.3N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0000Z 54.7N 17.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170231
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO VERY NEAR BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 65.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 65.2 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual
slowdown is expected during the next day or so. An accelerating
northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected
to pass near or over Bermuda Saturday morning and near or east of
Newfoundland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so,
though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).
The Bermuda International Airport recently reported sustained winds
of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (120 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Winds on Bermuda are expected to increase to hurricane force
early Saturday. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong
winds will continue on the island into Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States.
These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late
Saturday. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of
the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170231
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 65.2W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 65.2W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 65.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 64.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 220SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.7N 64.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 45.1N 54.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 51.3N 36.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 185SE 180SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 54.7N 17.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 200SE 120SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 65.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 162348
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING BEGINNING OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 65.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 65.2 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown beginning
early Saturday. An accelerating northeastward motion is then
expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast
track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over
Bermuda Saturday morning and near or east of Newfoundland Monday
night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so,
though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).
The Bermuda International Airport recently reported sustained winds
of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 50 mph (81 km/h). A Saildrone
(SD-1068) recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (111 km/h)
and a wind gust of 94 mph (152 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Winds on Bermuda are expected to increase to hurricane force
early Saturday. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong
winds will continue on the island into Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States.
These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late
Saturday. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of
the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 162045
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

After looking quite ragged this morning, Ernesto's structure on
satellite has made a comeback. A burst of convection that began
after the last advisory has wrapped around the western side of the
hurricane, and the eye has also tried to clear. The structural
improvement in Ernesto was also seen from the last couple of Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter fixes which indicated the eyewall
definition had improved while remaining quite large. This improved
eyewall can also be seen on radar imagery out of Bermuda. Before
departing, the peak flight-level winds from the NOAA-P3 aircraft was
107 kt at 750 mb, while the Air Force reconnaissance measured 99 kt
at 700 mb. While the satellite-based intensity estimates are a bit
lower, the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt given the higher
aircraft observations and improvement in structure this afternoon.
Of note, Saildrone SD-1068 appears to currently be in the northwest
eyewall of Ernesto and recently reported wind gusts of
hurricane-force and significant wave heights up to 36 feet.

Ernesto has maintained a north-northeast track this afternoon,
estimated at 035/11 kt. There isn't much change in the track
thinking this afternoon, as a mid to upper-level trough that has
been helping the hurricane move poleward will leave Ernesto behind
over the next day or two. While Ernesto will remain steered by a
subtropical ridge to its southeast, it is still forecast to
temporarily slow its north-northeastward motion. Thereafter, another
shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is expected to
dig southeastward over the Eastern U.S. and act as a kicker that
will help to accelerate Ernesto more northeastward between forecast
days 2 to 3. There is not much change to the track guidance this
afternoon, just perhaps a touch slower after the next 24 hours, and
the NHC track forecast lies very close to the prior one, close to
the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest track, Ernesto's
large eye will likely be very near or over Bermuda tomorrow
morning.

Intensity-wise, the model guidance continues to be insistent that
Ernesto will weaken some in the short term as it battles 20-25 kt
vertical wind shear out of the west, though so far Ernesto has been
been more resilient than expected, possibly due to its large size.
Nonetheless, this NHC intensity forecast will show some weakening,
though not as much as IVCN or some of the hurricane-regional models
over the next 24 h. After that time, shear decreases again while
Ernesto will remain over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, and the
intensity guidance responds to these more favorable conditions by
showing some restrengthening. Finally, after 60 h, Ernesto will
quickly cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream as the shear also
begins to rapidly increase again. The NHC intensity forecast shows
the hurricane completing extratropical tradition just after 72 h as
the system passes nearby the southeastern coast of Newfoundland
Canada.

Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds
and storm surge on Bermuda that is beginning currently and expected
to continue through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect
for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should
be completed as tropical-storm-force winds are already
being observed on the island.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact
Bermuda through Saturday and will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 30.6N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 31.9N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 33.1N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 34.6N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 36.6N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z 53.5N 22.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 162043
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER BERMUDA SHORTLY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 65.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 65.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown tomorrow. An
accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend
into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto
is expected to pass near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so,
though some re-intensification is possible by early next week.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).
Saildrone SD-1068 located about 25 miles (90 km) west-northwest of
Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (108
km/h), with a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The Bermuda International
Airport also recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h),
with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions already beginning on the island.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are also
beginning to affect the east coast of the United States and will
likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office,
and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 162043
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 65.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 65SE 50SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 65.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.9N 65.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 230SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N 64.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 65NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.6N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.6N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 70SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 75SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 160SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 53.5N 22.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 65.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 161744
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO CLOSING IN ON BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 66.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 66.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by
Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late this
weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of
Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so,
though some re-intensification is possible by early next week.

Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).
Saildrone SD-1068 located about 55 miles (90 km) north-northeast of
Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94
km/h), with a gust up to 74 mph (119 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from both Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are
expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later
today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of
Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 161622 CCA
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

Corrected direction of motion in second paragraph

Ernesto appears to be feeling the effects of vertical wind shear
this morning. The structure on satellite has become more asymmetric
with the coldest cloud tops shifted to the east of the center fixes
being made by an ongoing Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission, which
also found a 50-mile-wide eye open to the southwest. Despite the
degraded satellite appearance, the aircraft still found 700-mb
flight-level winds up to 98 kt, with peak SFMR-derived winds of 76
kt in the southeast quadrant of Ernesto. A blend of these data
still supports an intensity of 85 kt this advisory, though this
could be generous. The hurricane remains quite large with
tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 240 n mi southeast of the
center.

Ernesto continues to move north-northeast, estimated at 030/12 kt.
The deep-layer trough that has been initially influencing Ernesto's
motion is already starting to leave the tropical cyclone behind, and
the track guidance indicates the hurricane will begin to slow its
forward motion over the next day or so while continuing to move
north-northeastward. After that time, another shortwave trough
currently over the upper Midwest U.S. is forecast to dig
southeastward, which should ultimately result in Ernesto
accelerating northeastward around the periphery of the subtropical
ridge to its southeast. The track guidance this cycle is quite close
to the prior forecast, and the NHC track forecast only has minor
changes compared to the previous cycle.

Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is already up to 25
kt or greater, and this shear is likely to persist for another 12 to
24 h. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a little more
weakening, though it should be noted some of the hurricane regional
models show Ernesto weakening below hurricane intensity over the
next 36 h. Thereafter, as the first trough bypasses the system, the
forecast shear decreases while the tropical cyclone remains over 28
C or warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, there remains an
opportunity for Ernesto to re-intensify before it reaches the north
wall of the Gulf Stream by early next week. However, extratropical
transition will likely be underway shortly after it crosses over
much cooler waters after 72 h, with the latest NHC forecast showing
the system becoming extratropical at 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds
and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday
night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact
Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 29.5N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 31.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 32.5N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 41.6N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 48.4N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 161615

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.08.2024

HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.0N 66.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2024 29.0N 66.6W STRONG
00UTC 17.08.2024 31.1N 65.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2024 32.8N 64.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2024 33.6N 64.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.08.2024 35.1N 63.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2024 37.8N 62.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2024 41.1N 60.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2024 44.4N 56.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2024 47.5N 48.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.08.2024 51.1N 38.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.4N 138.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.08.2024 15.4N 138.8W WEAK
00UTC 22.08.2024 15.8N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2024 16.6N 144.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2024 17.5N 147.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2024 18.1N 150.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161615


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 161615

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 16.08.2024

HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.0N 66.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2024 0 29.0N 66.6W 965 80
0000UTC 17.08.2024 12 31.1N 65.4W 968 68
1200UTC 17.08.2024 24 32.8N 64.7W 969 61
0000UTC 18.08.2024 36 33.6N 64.0W 974 57
1200UTC 18.08.2024 48 35.1N 63.6W 978 56
0000UTC 19.08.2024 60 37.8N 62.6W 975 62
1200UTC 19.08.2024 72 41.1N 60.7W 969 66
0000UTC 20.08.2024 84 44.4N 56.0W 975 61
1200UTC 20.08.2024 96 47.5N 48.3W 989 46
0000UTC 21.08.2024 108 51.1N 38.2W 993 41
1200UTC 21.08.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.4N 138.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2024 120 15.4N 138.8W 1007 29
0000UTC 22.08.2024 132 15.8N 141.6W 1007 28
1200UTC 22.08.2024 144 16.6N 144.3W 1008 27
0000UTC 23.08.2024 156 17.5N 147.0W 1008 26
1200UTC 23.08.2024 168 18.1N 150.2W 1008 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161615


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 161444
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

Ernesto appears to be feeling the effects of vertical wind shear
this morning. The structure on satellite has become more asymmetric
with the coldest cloud tops shifted to the east of the center fixes
being made by an ongoing Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission, which
also found a 50-mile-wide eye open to the southwest. Despite the
degraded satellite appearance, the aircraft still found 700-mb
flight-level winds up to 98 kt, with peak SFMR-derived winds of 76
kt in the southeast quadrant of Ernesto. A blend of these data
still supports an intensity of 85 kt this advisory, though this
could be generous. The hurricane remains quite large with
tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 240 n mi southeast of the
center.

Ernesto continues to move north-northeast, estimated at 330/12 kt.
The deep-layer trough that has been initially influencing Ernesto's
motion is already starting to leave the tropical cyclone behind, and
the track guidance indicates the hurricane will begin to slow its
forward motion over the next day or so while continuing to move
north-northeastward. After that time, another shortwave trough
currently over the upper Midwest U.S. is forecast to dig
southeastward, which should ultimately result in Ernesto
accelerating northeastward around the periphery of the subtropical
ridge to its southeast. The track guidance this cycle is quite close
to the prior forecast, and the NHC track forecast only has minor
changes compared to the previous cycle.

Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is already up to 25
kt or greater, and this shear is likely to persist for another 12 to
24 h. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a little more
weakening, though it should be noted some of the hurricane regional
models show Ernesto weakening below hurricane intensity over the
next 36 h. Thereafter, as the first trough bypasses the system, the
forecast shear decreases while the tropical cyclone remains over 28
C or warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, there remains an
opportunity for Ernesto to re-intensify before it reaches the north
wall of the Gulf Stream by early next week. However, extratropical
transition will likely be underway shortly after it crosses over
much cooler waters after 72 h, with the latest NHC forecast showing
the system becoming extratropical at 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds
and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday
night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact
Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 29.5N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 31.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 32.5N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 41.6N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 48.4N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 161442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...LARGE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BRING BERMUDA STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS
STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 66.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 66.4 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by
Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the
weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected
to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so,
though some re-intensification is possible by early next week.

Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).
Saildrone SD-1068 located to the northeast of Ernesto recently
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (73 km/h), with a gust up to 57
mph (93 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are
expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later
today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of
Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 161440
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 66.4W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 65SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 66.4W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 66.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 55SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 230SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.5N 64.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 45SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 75SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N 59.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 140SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.4N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 160SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 270SE 270SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 66.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 161155
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO APPROACHING BERMUDA, WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING STARTING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 66.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 66.5 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue today followed by a slower
north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster northeastward
motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on
Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are
expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later
today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of
Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160844
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

Ernesto's strengthening trend has seemingly halted overnight. The
cloud pattern near the center has become less organized, and the
system appears to be struggling with dry air again with some eyewall
erosion in the western semicircle. Still, the convective banding
in the eastern side where the previous aircraft mission found the
peak winds remains deep and well-defined, suggesting that Ernesto
hasn't lost much strength. The initial wind speed is kept at 85 kt
for this advisory, a bit above the latest satellite estimates,
pending the upcoming Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission this morning.

The environment near Ernesto could support some strengthening today.
However, the most noticeable change in the overnight intensity
guidance aids is that almost all of them are showing more shear
today than previously expected. This shear, combined with the
environmental dry air, has led to this cycle's intensity forecast
values being a lot lower than 6 h ago. Given current trends, the
NHC prediction has been decreased from the last forecast, and is
still on the high side of the guidance. It is worth noting that
despite the peak wind speed reductions, the forecast size is
generally larger than the previous forecast, so the
life-threatening hazards from Ernesto are unchanged. After the
hurricane passes Bermuda, there could be a brief window for some
re-intensification in lighter shear conditions plus favorable trough
influences before Ernesto crosses into cool waters, and little
change was made at longer range.

Ernesto continues moving north-northeastward at about 11 kt, steered
by the flow between a ridge over the central Atlantic and a
large-scale trough off the U.S. east coast. This general motion is
expected to persist for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane
near or over Bermuda on Saturday. The trough is forecast is lift
out over the weekend, causing Ernesto to slow down and turn a bit to
the north or north-northeast. Another trough is expected to
approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that feature should
cause Ernesto to accelerate to the northeast near or east of
Newfoundland early next week. The NHC track forecast continues to
the trend of the previous one, nudged a touch to the east and a
little slower through its passage near Bermuda to come into better
agreement with the latest aids.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds
and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday
night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact
Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 28.1N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 29.6N 66.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 31.5N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 32.8N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 34.2N 64.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 36.2N 63.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 39.4N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/0600Z 52.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160843
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 67.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 230SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 67.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 67.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.6N 66.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 210SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 65.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.2N 64.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.2N 63.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.4N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 180SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 52.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 270SE 270SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 67.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160843
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS BERMUDA STARTING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 67.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue today followed by a
slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster
northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or
over Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on
Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are
expected to spread up the east coast of the United States today and
continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic
Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160541
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 67.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 67.5 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue today followed by a
slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster
northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or
over Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength late today. Ernesto
is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday and
maintain hurricane strength through the weekend.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach
Bermuda. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United
States today and continue into the weekend, and could reach
portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out
of the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160234
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

Ernesto has been strengthening this evening. Data from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure
has fallen to about 968 mb, and a blend of the peak flight-level
and SFMR winds support increasing the initial intensity to 85 kt.
This makes Ernesto a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ernesto has a ragged eye and a large wind
field, with the highest winds occurring in the northeast quadrant.

Ernesto is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between
a high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a large-scale
trough off the U.S. east coast. This general motion is expected to
continue for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane near or
over Bermuda on Saturday. Around that time, the trough is expected
to lift out, leaving Ernesto in weaker steering currents. As a
result, a slower and likely more erratic motion to the north or
north-northeast is forecast over the weekend. Another trough is
expected to approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that
should cause an accelerated motion to the northeast near or east of
Atlantic Canada early next week. The NHC track forecast is a touch
to the east and a little slower than the previous one through its
passage near Bermuda to come into better agreement with the latest
consensus aids.

It seems likely that Ernesto will strengthen some more during the
next 12 to 24 hours as it is expected to remain in conducive
environmental conditions of low wind shear, upper-level diffluence,
a relatively moist airmass, and over warm waters during that time.
Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and gradually cooler
waters should cause a slow weakening trend. However, baroclinic
influences could offset some of the weakening, which is why the
official forecast shows little change in strength during the 48- to
72-hour time frame. Ernesto is forecast to complete extratropical
transition by day 5, when it will likely be embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA model.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is moving toward Bermuda, and it is expected to bring a
prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda from
Friday afternoon through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in
effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect
Bermuda overnight and may result in flash flooding Friday through
this weekend.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 27.1N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 30.4N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 33.5N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 35.4N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 38.2N 62.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 45.6N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 51.0N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160233
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 68.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 230SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 68.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 68.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N 65.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N 64.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.2N 62.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.6N 54.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 51.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 190SE 180SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160233
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES
BERMUDA...
...PREPARATIONS ON BERMUDA SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 68.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 68.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a
slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster
northeastward motion is expected later in the weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or
over Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength
on Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near
Bermuda on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Hurricane Hurricane aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach
Bermuda. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United
States overnight and continue into the weekend, and could reach
portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out
of the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 152330
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 68.4W
ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue through early Friday, followed by a slower
northeastward or north-northeastward motion late Friday and
Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected later in
the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is
expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength
on Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda
on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach
Bermuda. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United
States overnight and continue into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out
of the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 152047
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

The inner core of Ernesto continues to be plagued by dry air
intrusion. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Ernesto
has yet to close off an eyewall. While the minimum central sea
level pressure has fallen to an estimated 972 mb based on dropsonde
data, the maximum flight-level winds are still at 86 kt, similar to
the earlier mission. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at
75 kt for this advisory cycle.

Ernesto has turned northward, with an estimated motion of 360/11 kt.
The storm is currently being steered by the flow between the
subtropical ridge centered over the north Atlantic Ocean and a
mid-latitude trough just off the eastern seaboard of North America.
This hurricane is expected to gradually turn more northeastward and
slow down over the next day or so as the trough lifts out to the
northeast. A subsequent trough is forecast to approach the New
England coast on Sunday and accelerate Ernesto off to the
northeast. The official track forecast is virtually unchanged from
the previous prediction and lies between the various consensus aids.
Based on the forecast, Ernesto is expected to pass near or over
Bermuda on Saturday and near or east of Atlantic Canada on Monday.

Warm waters and relatively low vertical wind shear should allow
Ernesto to gradually intensify over the next 12 hours or so.
Still, the mid-level atmospheric moisture is expected to be marginal
and the system could continue to experience dry air intrusions.
Global models suggest that while the vertical wind shear could
begin to increase within a day, Ernesto may be positioned in a
region relative to the departing trough where it could capitalize on
enhanced outflow and continue to strength. By the weekend,
atmospheric conditions should become less favorable and gradually
weaken the hurricane. Still, Ernesto is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda. Little changes
have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which lies
near the top of the model guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near
the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of
strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late
Friday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect
Bermuda this evening and may result in flash flooding Friday through
this weekend.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area during the next few days, including over the weekend. Beach
goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf
and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 26.1N 68.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.6N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 36.9N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 50.1N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 152046
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 68.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 68.9 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or
north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over
Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts
based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Strengthening
is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near
major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a
large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on a dropsonde
observation is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread
toward Bermuda later today. Swells are expected to reach the east
coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 152045
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 68.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 230SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 68.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.9N 63.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.1N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 68.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151745
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...HURRICANE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA ON SATURDAY...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 69.3W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 69.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or
north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over
Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts
based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Strengthening
is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could be near
major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a
large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on a dropsonde
observation is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 151456
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

Dry air appears to be disrupting Ernesto's attempts to become more
organized. Recent microwave satellite imagery has shown a large dry
slot wrapping into the center of the hurricane. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating Ernesto has
found peak flight-level winds of 87 kt and an expanded surface wind
field. Normally, this elevated wind would reduce to a surface wind
speed of 75-80 kt, however, given the broad nature of the storm
and lack of inner-core organization, these winds may not be mixing
down as efficiently as usual. The initial intensity remains at 75
kt for this advisory.

Ernesto is moving to the north at about 12 kt. The model guidance
is tightly clustered and shows the hurricane turning to the
northeast within a day or so while moving through a break in the
subtropical ridge towards a trough located off the coast of the
eastern United States. As the trough lifts by the weekend, Ernesto
should slow and turn to the north-northeast or north, while
approaching Bermuda on Friday night and Saturday. By the end of
the weekend, Ernesto is expected to accelerate northeastward near
the coast of Atlantic Canada. There have been little changes
to the most recent NHC track forecast, which lies just west of the
corrected consensus aid, HCCA.

Model guidance is still suggesting that some continued gradual
strengthening is possible in the next day or so. The deep-layer
vertical wind shear is forecast to be weak to moderate, and Ernesto
should be over warm waters for the next few days. However, the
broad nature of the current circulation, coupled with some dry air
ingestion, will likely slow the intensification rate. Ernesto is
now forecast to peak at 95 kt in 24 h, which is near the top of the
model guidance envelope. Beyond a day, the shear is expected to
increase and induce gradually weakening, though the warm waters and
positive interaction with the upper-level trough will likely allow
Ernesto remain a powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near
the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of
strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late
Friday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect
Bermuda later today and may result in flash flooding Friday through
this weekend.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area during the next few days, including over the weekend. Beach
goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf
and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 25.0N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 30.3N 66.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 33.6N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 35.6N 64.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 41.6N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 48.6N 48.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 69.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 69.2 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or
north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over
Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto
is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. A
Saildrone just north of the center measured sustained winds of 46
mph (74 km/h) with a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h).

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 151455
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 69.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 69.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.3N 66.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 65.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.6N 64.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.6N 48.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 69.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151149
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 69.3W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 69.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or
northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Ernesto is
forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches)
based on data from a dropsonde.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150858
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

Ernesto has strengthened overnight. Satellite images show that a
more symmetric area of deep convection has formed near the center,
with a rather large curved band wrapping in all quadrants of the
hurricane. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt, matching the TAFB
and SAB estimates, though recent imagery suggests that could be a
little conservative. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours.

Ernesto has turned northward and is moving at about 11 kt. The
models remain in good agreement that the hurricane should turn to
the northeast during the next day or so while moving through a break
in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic towards a
mid-latitude trough. However, the trough departs by the weekend,
causing Ernesto to move slower to the north-northeast or north while
the hurricane approaches Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Later
this weekend, a second trough will move across the eastern U.S., and
Ernesto should accelerate northeastward early next week within the
deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature. The NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous one as the track guidance
remains in good overall agreement.

While the shear near Ernesto remains low, a large dry slot continues
to wrap near the core, preventing anything other than slow
intensification so far. Most of the guidance gradually intensifies
the system during the next day or so as the very warm waters and
light-to-moderate shear outweigh the effects of the dry air. Little
change was made to the intensity forecast, and all of the guidance
show this system as a large hurricane near Bermuda. There remains
some indications that positive interactions with the second upper
trough and warmer than normal waters should cause the system to keep
much of its strength north of Bermuda, and the new forecast reflects
this. All of the guidance now show Ernesto as post-tropical by 120
h, and so does the NHC forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near
the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of
strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late
Friday, and a hurricane warning has been issued for the island.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect
Bermuda later today and may result in flash flooding Friday through
this weekend.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 23.9N 69.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 25.4N 69.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 27.4N 68.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 29.3N 66.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 31.1N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 32.6N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 34.3N 65.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 39.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150855
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 69.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
is expected today, followed by a slower northeastward or northward
motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Ernesto is
forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
NOAA buoy 41046, located about 20 miles north of Ernesto, recently
reported a minimum central pressure of 987.4 mb (29.16 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150854
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.4N 69.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N 68.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.1N 65.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 55SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N 65.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.3N 65.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 39.7N 62.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 69.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150548
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERNESTO IS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 69.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 69.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower
northward to northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 41046, located about 40 miles north of
Ernesto, recently reported a wind gust to 57 mph (91 km/h) and a
minimum central pressure of 997.9 mb (29.47 inches).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches.
This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 150412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.08.2024

HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 68.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2024 22.3N 68.7W MODERATE
12UTC 15.08.2024 24.5N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.08.2024 26.4N 68.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2024 28.6N 67.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2024 30.6N 65.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2024 32.1N 65.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2024 33.0N 65.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2024 34.4N 65.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2024 36.9N 64.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2024 40.3N 61.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2024 43.8N 57.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2024 46.7N 49.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.08.2024 49.8N 39.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2024 53.6N 28.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.08.2024 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.8N 134.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2024 13.7N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2024 14.0N 137.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2024 15.3N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150412


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.08.2024

HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 68.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2024 0 22.3N 68.7W 993 48
1200UTC 15.08.2024 12 24.5N 69.4W 989 52
0000UTC 16.08.2024 24 26.4N 68.7W 984 50
1200UTC 16.08.2024 36 28.6N 67.5W 984 54
0000UTC 17.08.2024 48 30.6N 65.9W 980 55
1200UTC 17.08.2024 60 32.1N 65.2W 975 57
0000UTC 18.08.2024 72 33.0N 65.1W 977 58
1200UTC 18.08.2024 84 34.4N 65.0W 980 56
0000UTC 19.08.2024 96 36.9N 64.0W 972 64
1200UTC 19.08.2024 108 40.3N 61.7W 967 67
0000UTC 20.08.2024 120 43.8N 57.2W 971 66
1200UTC 20.08.2024 132 46.7N 49.5W 987 47
0000UTC 21.08.2024 144 49.8N 39.6W 989 43
1200UTC 21.08.2024 156 53.6N 28.1W 977 42
0000UTC 22.08.2024 168 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.8N 134.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2024 144 13.7N 135.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 21.08.2024 156 14.0N 137.2W 1007 27
0000UTC 22.08.2024 168 15.3N 138.5W 1007 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150412


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150242
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

The satellite structure of Ernesto has somewhat improved tonight. A
series of earlier SSMI/S 91 GHz passive microwave images showed the
formation of a mid-level eye, and there have been recent hints of an
eye trying to emerge in proxy-visible satellite images. Data from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has
fallen to 982 mb, and the aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 76 kt in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is set at 70 kt. The wind field remains quite
broad and asymmetric, with the strongest aircraft winds well to the
northeast of the center. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission
into Ernesto is scheduled for tomorrow morning.

Ernesto is now moving north-northwestward at 330/14 kt. The
hurricane will continue on a north-northwestward to northward motion
during the next day or so while moving through a break in the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The global models agree
the upper trough that weakened the ridge will not capture Ernesto.
As a result, Ernesto will move slower to the north-northeast and
north while the hurricane approaches and moves near Bermuda Friday
night and Saturday. Later this weekend, a second trough will move
across the eastern U.S., and Ernesto should accelerate northeastward
early next week within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of
this feature. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the
previous one, as the track guidance remains in good overall
agreement. It is still too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's
center will move to Bermuda this weekend, but warnings will likely
be required for the island on Thursday.

While there is still evidence of some drier air nearby Ernesto, the
very warm ocean waters and weak to moderate shear should promote
some strengthening during the next couple of days. This is supported
by the bulk of the intensity guidance, and the regional hurricane
models still favor Ernesto reaching major hurricane intensity on
Friday. The latest NHC prediction remains on the high end of the
guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus. Some
gradual weakening is forecast thereafter as Ernesto moves into a
drier, more sheared environment. There are some indications that
positive interaction with the second upper trough could cause
Ernesto's intensity to level off or even slightly increase during
the 60-96 h time period while still over warm waters. By 120 h, the
model fields suggest Ernesto will be on the verge of losing tropical
characteristics while accelerating over cooler waters.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. Rainfall
associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda late Thursday
and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later this week and this
weekend.

2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 23.0N 68.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150241
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
APPROACHING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 68.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 68.9 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a slower
northward to northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches.
This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150240
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 68.9W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 68.9W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 68.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 68.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 142350
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO IS STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday. A
northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is
expected Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday.

Data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches)
based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Total rainfall amounts from
Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the
U.S and British Virgin Islands.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 142042
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows that Ernesto's cloud field is
gradually expanding, and there have been hints of an eye potentially
forming in the Central Dense Overcast. The Air Force Reserve
mission from a few hours ago found that the central pressure had
fallen to 989 mb, but there were no indications that the maximum
winds were any higher than 65 kt. The initial intensity is
therefore held at that level, which is also supported by the latest
satellite intensity estimates.

Ernesto is still moving northwestward but continues to turn to the
right, and the initial motion is 325/14 kt. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday as
the hurricane moves through a break in the subtropical ridge, but
the trough causing this break is forecast to leave Ernesto behind
later in the week. The result is that Ernesto is likely to slow
down while it passes very near Bermuda Friday night and Saturday.
Thereafter, a second trough approaching from the west should cause
Ernesto to accelerate toward the northeast, near or just south of
Atlantic Canada. The track models are in very good agreement on
this scenario, but there is a bit of east-to-west spread after 48
hours. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward after
48 hours to be close to the multi-model consensus aids, although at
this time it is too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's center
will move to Bermuda this weekend.

An environment of warm ocean waters (around 29 degrees Celsius) and
low to moderate shear should allow Ernesto to strengthen gradually
during the next few days. Most of the intensity models indicate
that the hurricane should peak in intensity in about 48 hours. At
that time, the official forecast shows a peak of 100 kt--major
hurricane--which is near the top end of the guidance and close to
the HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA models. A weakening trend should
begin after 48 hours due to moderate shear and a drier, more stable
atmosphere, but the weakening is likely to be gradual. As a result,
the official forecast keeps Ernesto as a hurricane throughout the
5-day forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. Rainfall
associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda as early as
Thursday and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later in the
week and this weekend.

2. Heavy rainfall will be diminishing across Puerto Rico into the
Virgin Islands this evening. Locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides will continue through tonight over the Virgin Islands
and into portions of Puerto Rico.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 21.7N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 25.7N 69.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 27.7N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 37.0N 64.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 43.4N 58.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 142041
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 69.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.7N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N 64.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.4N 58.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 68.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 142041
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 68.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 68.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday.
A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is
expected Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.

Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Total rainfall amounts from
Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the
U.S and British Virgin Islands.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells
will reach the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and Bermuda and the
rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the
east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 141749
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO
ONGOING HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 68.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands have been discontinued.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A
hurricane watch may be required for the island later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight,
with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed
continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move
across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach
Bermuda Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent dropsonde
data is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin
Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals
of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda on
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Gusty winds will continue across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands through rest of today.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will
reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of
the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east
coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 141505
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 67.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 200SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 75SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 67.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 67.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.3N 68.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.5N 69.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N 66.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.0N 65.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 67.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 141455
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak
700-mb flight-level wind of 70 kt northeast of Ernesto's center, and
the crew reported a 50 percent eyewall. In addition, Tail Doppler
radar from the NOAA P-3 aircraft measured winds over 75 kt at an
elevation of 500 meters. Based on these data, Ernesto is upgraded
to a 65-kt hurricane.

Ernesto continues to move northwestward, or 310/14 kt, but is
expected to turn north-northwestward and northward later today and
tonight as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge caused
by a deep-layer trough off the east coast of the United States. This
trough is expected to leave Ernesto behind later this week, which
should cause a reduction in speed on Saturday and Sunday while the
storm is passing Bermuda. By early next week, a second trough
moving across the eastern United States should cause Ernesto to
accelerate toward the north and north-northeast over the waters
south of Atlantic Canada. The track guidance is in good agreement
during the first 48 hours, and the official forecast was only
shifted slightly westward to account for Ernesto's recent motion.
After 48 hours, there is more divergence in the track models, with
the GFS on the eastern edge of the envelope while the ECMWF shows
less turning and is on the western edge of the envelope. The NHC
forecast has been nudged westward during this period and is very
close to the dynamical hurricane models.

Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane
might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry
air during the next several days. That said, the intensity
guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official
forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major
hurricane in about 48 hours. Much of the intensity guidance has
come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll
maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of
Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to
continue over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
through today.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system. A
Hurricane Watch may be required later today.

4. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.5N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 22.3N 68.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 24.5N 69.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 30.4N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 36.0N 65.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 42.6N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 141454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...ERNESTO BECOMES A HURRICANE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS HEAVY RAINS PERSIST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 67.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A
hurricane watch may be required for the island later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 67.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight,
with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed
continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move
across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach
Bermuda Friday and Saturday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph
(120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin
Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals
of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda on
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, will continue
across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through
the day.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will
reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of
the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east
coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 141152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...FLOODING RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 67.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the British Virgin
Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 67.2 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto will move northward away from Puerto Rico through
today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in
the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later today and
could become a major hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight
hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch
area during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of
onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the
islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands,
including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas
on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the
United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 140853
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

Ernesto continues to gradually become better organized on satellite
imagery and WSR 88-D radar data. Very intense convection has
developed near the center of the storm as well as in a strong band
to the south across Puerto Rico. Earlier Culebra reported
sustained winds of 59 kt and that was the basis for the 60 kt
estimate at 6Z. While it is possible Ernesto is already a
hurricane, radar data does not yet support an upgrade, so 60 kt
remains the initial intensity. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are
scheduled to be in the system later this morning.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 14 kt. Ernesto is
expected to turn north-northwestward later today and then move to
the north or north-northeast for the next several days while it
moves through a break in the subtropical ridge and interacts with a
mid-latitude trough. There are no notable changes to the NHC track
forecast, with Ernesto forecast to stay offshore of the CONUS and
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Saturday.

Radar data still suggests that Ernesto isn't fully vertically
aligned, with multiple attempts at eye formation failing, probably
due to dry air intrusions. The large-scale conditions still appear
to be conducive for strengthening as the shear remains fairly low
and any residual dry air gradually mixes out of the core. The bulk
of the intensity guidance still shows Ernesto becoming a major
hurricane over the western Atlantic in a couple of days, and the
global models also depict a large and powerful hurricane. Little
change was made to the previous forecast, which remains near the
model consensus.

It should be noted that all of the models are showing Ernesto
becoming quite a bit larger, which should send powerful swells
toward the land area across the western Atlantic. Even if Ernesto
stays well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of deadly rip currents beginning later
this week.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques during the next
several hours.

2. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of
Puerto Rico.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.

4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach
the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.5N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 21.1N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 23.6N 68.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 25.7N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 31.4N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 140851
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM
ERNESTO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 66.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Vieques and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case through the morning hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 66.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto will pass to the north of Puerto Rico through
today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in
the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later this
morning and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. A metar station at the Roosevelt Roads Naval
Station (TJNR) recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78
km/h) and a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). A NOAA Saildrone located
about 65 miles north- northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, recently
reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph
(122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight
hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch
area during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of
onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the
islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands,
including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas
on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the
United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 140850
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 66.6W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 145SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 66.6W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 66.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.1N 67.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.6N 68.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 68.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.4N 65.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 66.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 140549
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FROM ERNESTO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 66.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...25 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case through the early morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located by San Juan radar near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 66.0
West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (25 km/h).
A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the north of
Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the
western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday
and Friday night.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening
is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected
to become a hurricane later this morning and could become a major
hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station (XCUL) on Culebra recently
reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust of 86 mph
(139 km/h). A NOAA Saildrone located about 70 miles north-
northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, recently reported a sustained
wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the
overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of
the watch area during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas
on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the
United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 140413

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 65.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2024 0 18.3N 65.1W 1005 35
1200UTC 14.08.2024 12 20.0N 67.5W 1000 48
0000UTC 15.08.2024 24 22.6N 68.2W 998 52
1200UTC 15.08.2024 36 25.0N 68.9W 995 52
0000UTC 16.08.2024 48 26.9N 67.7W 993 51
1200UTC 16.08.2024 60 29.3N 65.8W 991 58
0000UTC 17.08.2024 72 31.5N 64.2W 984 58
1200UTC 17.08.2024 84 32.5N 64.0W 985 50
0000UTC 18.08.2024 96 33.6N 64.0W 984 49
1200UTC 18.08.2024 108 34.8N 64.0W 983 56
0000UTC 19.08.2024 120 37.7N 63.5W 981 60
1200UTC 19.08.2024 132 41.3N 61.7W 973 65
0000UTC 20.08.2024 144 45.6N 58.1W 978 53
1200UTC 20.08.2024 156 50.0N 51.0W 987 42
0000UTC 21.08.2024 168 54.4N 39.6W 984 42


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140412


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 140412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 65.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.08.2024 18.3N 65.1W WEAK
12UTC 14.08.2024 20.0N 67.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.08.2024 22.6N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2024 25.0N 68.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2024 26.9N 67.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2024 29.3N 65.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2024 31.5N 64.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2024 32.5N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2024 33.6N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2024 34.8N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2024 37.7N 63.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2024 41.3N 61.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2024 45.6N 58.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2024 50.0N 51.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2024 54.4N 39.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140412


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 140247
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Aircraft data, surface observations, and NWS radar images indicate
Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands around 00 UTC this evening.
The tropical cyclone remains asymmetric, as NOAA Tail Doppler Radar
data show the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall are generally
confined to the northern and eastern semicircles of the storm. Data
from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the central
pressure of Ernesto has fallen to around 998-999 mb, and an earlier
aircraft pass through the eastern part of the storm found peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 60 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 55 kt, which matches the latest Dvorak current
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The latest aircraft fixes and radar data show Ernesto has turned
northwestward (305/15 kt). Overnight, Ernesto will move away from
the Virgin Islands and pass to the northeast and north of Puerto
Rico. Then, Ernesto is expected to move northwestward to northward
during the next couple of days toward a break in the subtropical
ridge. By late week, the influence of a deep-layer trough over the
western Atlantic should cause Ernesto to turn north-northeastward,
although the cyclone is forecast to slow down a bit after the trough
passes to its north. There are no notable changes to the NHC track
forecast, with Ernesto forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Friday night into Saturday.

The radar structure of Ernesto indicates it has not yet solidified
an inner core. However, once this occurs, the atmospheric and
oceanic conditions appear conducive for significant strengthening
over the next few days. Most of the hurricane regional models and
statistical guidance show Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over
the western Atlantic late this week, and the global models
(particularly the GFS) show significant deepening of the low. Based
on the latest guidance trends, the NHC intensity forecast has been
raised slightly during the middle portion of the forecast period and
now shows Ernesto becoming a major hurricane on Friday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday, with
hurricane conditions possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and
Vieques.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto
Rico tonight through Wednesday.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.

4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach
the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 18.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 140245
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 65.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case through tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Ernesto will pass to the northeast and north of Puerto
Rico through early Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the
western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday
and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and
Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday to the
north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix recently
reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph
(93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the
overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of
the watch area during the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells
will reach the Dominican Republic overnight, the Turks and Caicos
Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the
rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the
east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 140245
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 65.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 132350
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 64.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

The government of Sint Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Sint Maarten.

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case through tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 64.7 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
and north Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto should pass just to the northeast and north of
Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over
the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on
Friday and Friday night.

Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
forecast during the next several days. Ernesto is expected to become
a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday to the north of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service station in Charlotte
Amalie, St. Thomas, recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches)
based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands
from St. Kitts and Nevis to St. Martin and across the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern
Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto
Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Virgin
Islands and will spread over Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible
over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra tonight.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells
will reach the Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos
Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the
rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are also expected to reach
the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 132047
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Ernesto's structure continues to gradually increase in organization.
There has been some indication of dry air within the circulation
and possibly some westerly shear--likely related to the system's
continued fast motion--but the maximum winds have been increasing
during the day nonetheless. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt and
believable SFMR winds of 45-50 kt northeast of the center, and
dropsonde data showed that the central pressure had fallen to 1001
mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt.
Some satellite estimates suggest the intensity could be slightly
higher, but there will be both Air Force and NOAA aircraft in the
storm later this evening to confirm these trends.

The recent aircraft fixes indicate that Ernesto continues to turn
to the right and is moving west-northwestward, or 300/16 kt. This
turn is expected to continue for the next couple of days as Ernesto
moves toward a break in the western Atlantic subtropical ridge. On
this track, Ernesto's center should pass over the Virgin Islands
later this evening and then pass northeast and north of Puerto Rico
overnight and on Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward
motion is forecast after 48 hours as Ernesto interacts with a
deep-layer trough off the U.S. East Coast, but this trough ends up
bypassing Ernesto, resulting in the storm slowing down a bit when
it is in the vicinity of Bermuda. The track guidance continues to
be very consistent, and again no significant changes were required
to the official track forecast compared to the previous issuance.

Very warm sea surface temperatures and generally low shear favor
continued strengthening over the next few days. SHIPS and the HFIP
Corrected Consensus models continue to suggest that Ernesto could
reach hurricane strength by 12 hours, and several of the Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices are still well above climatology. As a
result, the NHC intensity forecast shows Ernesto becoming a
hurricane by tonight and then peaking at an intensity at or just
below major hurricane strength in 60-72 hours. Since there is some
chance of Ernesto becoming a hurricane while it is near the Virgin
Islands, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Virgin Islands,
Culebra, and Vieques.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands this evening and spread westward to
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this evening and tonight.
Hurricane conditions are also possible on the Virgin Islands,
Culebra, and Vieques this evening and tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through this evening,
and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by this evening
through Wednesday.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.

4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days and then reach
the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.3N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 21.3N 67.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 23.4N 68.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 25.4N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 29.1N 66.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 32.7N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 36.8N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 132046
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 64.1W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 64.1W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.3N 65.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.3N 67.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.4N 68.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.4N 68.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.1N 66.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 32.7N 65.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.8N 64.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 64.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 132046
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 64.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case through tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 64.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and
north Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this
evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto
Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the
western Atlantic later in the week and be near Bermuda by Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to
become a hurricane by tonight to the north of the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently
reported at St. Martin.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands
from St. Kitts and Nevis to St. Martin and across the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern
Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto
Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
warning area in the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico this evening and tonight. Hurricane conditions are
also possible over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra this
evening into tonight.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells
will then reach the Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos
Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the
rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are also expected to reach
the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 131750
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO STILL
STRENGTHENING...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours or so.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 63.5 West. Ernesto
is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A motion
toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed is
expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this
evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto
Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the
western Atlantic later in the week.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently
reported at Gustavia, St. Barthelemy.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands
from Guadeloupe to Dominica and across the U.S and British Virgin
Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals
of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
warning area in the Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible
over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra this evening into
tonight.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and will spread westward to
Puerto Rico later today. These swells will then reach the
Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda on Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 131735

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 62.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.08.2024 17.2N 62.3W WEAK
00UTC 14.08.2024 18.5N 65.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2024 20.2N 67.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2024 22.5N 68.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2024 24.5N 69.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2024 26.1N 68.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2024 27.4N 67.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2024 28.3N 66.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2024 29.4N 65.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2024 30.5N 66.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2024 32.5N 66.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2024 34.4N 65.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2024 36.7N 64.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2024 39.7N 61.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2024 42.7N 56.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 37.0N 57.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2024 37.0N 57.5W WEAK
12UTC 16.08.2024 39.0N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2024 41.4N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2024 43.6N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2024 44.2N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2024 45.0N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2024 45.4N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131735


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131735

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 62.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2024 0 17.2N 62.3W 1008 34
0000UTC 14.08.2024 12 18.5N 65.3W 1007 35
1200UTC 14.08.2024 24 20.2N 67.1W 1005 50
0000UTC 15.08.2024 36 22.5N 68.7W 1000 52
1200UTC 15.08.2024 48 24.5N 69.2W 998 49
0000UTC 16.08.2024 60 26.1N 68.5W 996 51
1200UTC 16.08.2024 72 27.4N 67.5W 995 58
0000UTC 17.08.2024 84 28.3N 66.5W 993 48
1200UTC 17.08.2024 96 29.4N 65.9W 993 50
0000UTC 18.08.2024 108 30.5N 66.4W 992 49
1200UTC 18.08.2024 120 32.5N 66.1W 989 52
0000UTC 19.08.2024 132 34.4N 65.4W 983 57
1200UTC 19.08.2024 144 36.7N 64.2W 977 62
0000UTC 20.08.2024 156 39.7N 61.2W 971 68
1200UTC 20.08.2024 168 42.7N 56.7W 967 68

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 37.0N 57.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2024 60 37.0N 57.5W 1012 31
1200UTC 16.08.2024 72 39.0N 54.8W 1011 30
0000UTC 17.08.2024 84 41.4N 51.4W 1011 30
1200UTC 17.08.2024 96 43.6N 47.3W 1012 27
0000UTC 18.08.2024 108 44.2N 45.0W 1013 28
1200UTC 18.08.2024 120 45.0N 42.2W 1014 23
0000UTC 19.08.2024 132 45.4N 39.3W 1016 19
1200UTC 19.08.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131735


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 131553

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLX MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 62.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.08.2024 17.0N 62.1W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131553


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131553

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLX MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 62.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2024 0 17.0N 62.1W 1009 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131553


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 131457
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Ernesto's center passed near or over Guadeloupe and Montserrat this
morning and is now located just south of St. Kitts and Nevis.
Aircraft data, satellite images, and radar data show that the storm
is becoming better organized, and there are some indications that
an inner core is developing. Earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter data
supported maximum winds of 40 kt, and given the improved structure
since then (and consensus T3.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB),
the initial intensity is set at 45 kt.

Ernesto has turned toward the west-northwest, and now has an
initial motion of 290/16 kt. A break in the subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic is expected to cause Ernesto to turn toward
the northwest and then north during the next couple of days, with
the storm's center passing near or over the Virgin Islands this
evening and then moving northeast and north of Puerto Rico
overnight and on Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward
motion is forecast after 48 hours as Ernesto interacts with a
deep-layer trough off the U.S. East Coast, but this trough ends up
bypassing Ernesto, resulting in the storm slowing down a bit when
it is in the vicinity of Bermuda. The track guidance has been very
consistent, and no changes were required to the official track
forecast compared to the previous issuance.

Sea surface temperatures near Ernesto in the northeastern Caribbean
Sea are very warm--on the order of 29-30 degrees Celsius--and
vertical shear in the atmosphere is relatively light. Combined
with the thought that Ernesto is developing an inner core, these
ingredients favor quick strengthening over the next day or so.
SHIPS and the HFIP Corrected Consensus models indicate that Ernesto
could be near or at hurricane strength in about 24 hours, and
several of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are notably high.
As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast is more aggressive
than the previous forecast, and brings Ernesto to hurricane
strength by 24 hours when the center is north of Puerto Rico.
Because there is some risk of the storm becoming a hurricane before
that time, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Virgin
Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. After moving north of Puerto Rico,
additional strengthening is likely, and the NHC forecast is near the
high end of the guidance. Ernesto is also likely to grow in size
while over the western Atlantic, and that is reflected in the
official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions
of the Leeward Islands today and spread westward to the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight. Hurricane
conditions are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and
Vieques this evening and tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and
over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through
Wednesday.

3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.0N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.8N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 24.3N 68.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 28.2N 67.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 31.4N 65.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 34.9N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 131456
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 62.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 62.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 64.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.3N 68.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.2N 67.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.4N 65.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 34.9N 64.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 62.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 131456
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF ST. KITTS
AND NEVIS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, VIEQUES, AND
CULEBRA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 62.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Culebra, and Vieques.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours or so.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 62.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A motion
toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed is
expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this
evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto
Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the
western Atlantic later in the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 65 mph (105 km/h) was recently
reported on St. Barthelemy.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands
from Guadeloupe to Dominica and across the U.S and British Virgin
Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals
of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
warning area in the Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible
over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra this evening into
tonight.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and will spread westward to
Puerto Rico later today. These swells will then reach the
Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda on Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 131154
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 61.9 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move
across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.
After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is
forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday
over the waters north of the Greater Antilles.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. St. Barthelemy reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90
km/h), and St. Martin reported a gust of 50 mph (80 km/h) during
the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands...1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
warning area for the Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and will spread westward to
Puerto Rico later today. These swells will then reach the
Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda on Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 130832
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Satellite imagery and French radar data from Guadeloupe indicate
that convection has become more concentrated near the center of
Ernesto during the past several hours, and there is increased
evidence of cyclonic rotation in the radar imagery. However, this
has not yet resulted in significant intensification, with surface
obs from the Leeward Islands showing a large area of pressures near
1007-1009 mb and no evidence of any tight wind center. Based on
this and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/17, a little slower
than before. Ernesto should turn west-northwestward with an
additional decrease in forward speed during the next 12 h or so as
it approaches a developing break in the subtropical ridge. This
motion should bring the center near or over the Leeward Islands
today and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight
and early Wednesday. After that, the flow between the subtropical
ridge and a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the United
States should cause the cyclone to turn northward and northeastward.
By the end of the forecast period, this trough is expected to move
eastward away from Ernesto, with a mid-latitude shortwave ridge
passing north of the storm. This development should cause another
decrease in forward speed during the 96-120 h period. The new
forecast track is close to the various consensus models, and it is
also similar to the previous forecast track.

Ernesto is forecast to be in an environment of light to moderate
shear and over warm sea surface temperatures through the forecast
period, and this combination should allow it to strengthen.
Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h
primarily due to the current lack of organization. After that, a
faster rate of strengthening is expected, with Ernesto forecast to
reach hurricane strength in 36-48 h. The intensity forecast
follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance, and it lies
between the intensity consensus and the upper edge of the guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Leeward Islands today and to the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by late today or tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are
in effect for this entire area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and
over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through
Wednesday.

3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to
Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.2N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.7N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.7N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 23.0N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 25.1N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 30.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 130831
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 61.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 61.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move
across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or
over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
evening. After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto
is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters
north of the Greater Antilles.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. St. Barthelemy recently reported a wind gust of
53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations in the Leeward Islands is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning in the next several
hours. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 130831
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 61.3W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 61.3W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 60.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.1N 63.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.7N 65.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.7N 67.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.1N 68.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 30.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 61.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 130530
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 60.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 60.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto
is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this
morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by this evening. Ernesto is then forecast to turn
northward over the western Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1009 mb
(29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands... 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning in the next several
hours. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 130411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 58.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.08.2024 16.1N 58.9W WEAK
12UTC 13.08.2024 17.0N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2024 18.3N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2024 20.2N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2024 22.6N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2024 24.8N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2024 26.5N 67.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2024 28.1N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2024 29.8N 63.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2024 30.4N 63.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2024 30.9N 63.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2024 32.1N 63.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2024 34.2N 63.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2024 37.0N 63.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2024 40.6N 60.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 36.5N 60.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.08.2024 36.5N 60.9W WEAK
12UTC 14.08.2024 38.4N 55.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2024 40.2N 52.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2024 43.5N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2024 45.4N 43.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.3N 60.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2024 37.1N 58.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2024 39.9N 56.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2024 40.6N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2024 43.1N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2024 45.2N 35.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2024 46.1N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 14.1N 117.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.08.2024 14.1N 117.4W WEAK
00UTC 20.08.2024 14.3N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130411


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 130411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 13.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 58.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2024 0 16.1N 58.9W 1011 27
1200UTC 13.08.2024 12 17.0N 62.1W 1009 29
0000UTC 14.08.2024 24 18.3N 64.0W 1009 31
1200UTC 14.08.2024 36 20.2N 66.8W 1007 38
0000UTC 15.08.2024 48 22.6N 67.7W 1006 43
1200UTC 15.08.2024 60 24.8N 68.4W 1003 46
0000UTC 16.08.2024 72 26.5N 67.1W 1001 48
1200UTC 16.08.2024 84 28.1N 65.6W 999 52
0000UTC 17.08.2024 96 29.8N 63.8W 996 49
1200UTC 17.08.2024 108 30.4N 63.3W 995 43
0000UTC 18.08.2024 120 30.9N 63.1W 994 42
1200UTC 18.08.2024 132 32.1N 63.3W 994 43
0000UTC 19.08.2024 144 34.2N 63.9W 991 44
1200UTC 19.08.2024 156 37.0N 63.3W 988 53
0000UTC 20.08.2024 168 40.6N 60.7W 985 60

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 36.5N 60.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2024 24 36.5N 60.9W 1010 29
1200UTC 14.08.2024 36 38.4N 55.9W 1008 36
0000UTC 15.08.2024 48 40.2N 52.4W 1008 32
1200UTC 15.08.2024 60 43.5N 48.7W 1010 30
0000UTC 16.08.2024 72 45.4N 43.7W 1013 29
1200UTC 16.08.2024 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.3N 60.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2024 84 37.1N 58.8W 1013 25
0000UTC 17.08.2024 96 39.9N 56.1W 1011 31
1200UTC 17.08.2024 108 40.6N 52.7W 1013 30
0000UTC 18.08.2024 120 43.1N 45.3W 1015 25
1200UTC 18.08.2024 132 45.2N 35.1W 1014 30
0000UTC 19.08.2024 144 46.1N 27.0W 1011 33
1200UTC 19.08.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 14.1N 117.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2024 156 14.1N 117.4W 1005 25
0000UTC 20.08.2024 168 14.3N 120.7W 1004 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130411


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 130242
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Ernesto remains a rather broad tropical cyclone, and satellite and
radar data shows that deep convection has yet to
consolidate/concentrate near its center. Tonight's NOAA P-3 TDR data
in Ernesto also suggests the broad center currently lacks much
vertical alignment. However, there are a number of convective
banding features around the circulation and the overall organization
of the cloud pattern has been increasing since earlier today.
Satellite imagery shows that the upper-level anticyclonic outflow
pattern is well defined over the western semicircle of the
circulation. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory based
on observations from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and
Dvorak satellite estimates.

Since the system is still in the formative stage, there is some
scatter in the center position estimates, making the initial motion
estimate somewhat uncertain. My best motion estimate is generally
westward at a slightly slower speed, around 275/22 kt. During the
next day or so, a mid-level ridge to the north of Ernesto should
maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion at a gradually
decreasing forward speed. This should take the center of the
tropical cyclone over portions of the Leeward Islands very soon,
across the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, and near
or over portions of Puerto Rico Tuesday evening or Tuesday night.
After that, the flow on the eastern side a deep-layer trough moving
off the U.S. east coast should cause Ernesto turn northward to
north-northeastward. Later in the forecast period, the first trough
that steers the system northward from the Greater Antilles leaves
Ernesto behind, and the tropical cyclone may have to wait for a
second trough to steer it farther into the mid-latitudes. The
official track forecast is near the left edge of the guidance suite
during the first 24-36 hours and close to the simple model consensus
from 2-5 days.

Assuming that deep convection will increase near the center of
Ernesto, the high-level outflow and otherwise conducive oceanic and
atmospheric environment favors strengthening during the next few
days. Although the intensification is expected to be gradual during
the early part of the period, a more rapid rate of strengthening is
likely after the system moves north of the Greater Antilles. The
official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one
and close to the multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning early Tuesday and to the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect for this entire area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.

3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to
Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.0N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.4N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.7N 64.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 21.7N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 24.0N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 26.1N 67.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 29.9N 65.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 32.7N 64.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 130241
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...ERNESTO APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 59.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 59.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto
is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands by early
Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then forecast to turn
northward over the western Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands... 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 130241
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 58.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.4N 62.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.7N 64.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.7N 67.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 29.9N 65.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 32.7N 64.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 59.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 122355
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...ERNESTO LIKELY TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 58.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 58.5 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 28 mph (44 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands
late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then
forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands... 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 122045
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Satellite images and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicate that a center of circulation has now formed, and deep
convection is gradually organizing in bands around that feature. A
combination of flight-level wind and SFMR data from the aircraft
support increasing the winds to 35 kt. Since the system meets the
definition of a tropical cyclone and has winds of tropical storm
force, it is now designated Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Based on the latest satellite images and aircraft data, the center
has formed about 30 n mi north of the previous track. This makes
the initial motion uncertain, but our best estimate is 285/24 kt.
This fast forward speed is due to a strong low- to mid-level ridge
situated just north of the system over the subtropical Atlantic. A
fast west-northwestward motion is expected to continue, taking the
storm across the northern Leeward Islands overnight and near or over
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday
night. After that time, a significant slowdown and a turn to the
north over the Atlantic is expected as a deep-layer trough pushes
off the U.S. east coast, causing the ridge to shift eastward. The
NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one in
the short term and lies on the left edge of the guidance through
Ernesto's track across the Caribbean. This forecast is closer to
the middle of the guidance envelope while it is over the western and
central Atlantic.

Since Ernesto now has a center and a slightly improved circulation,
strengthening seems likely. However, the rate of intensification
will likely be slow during the next day or two due to the system's
broad structure and ragged convective pattern. More significant
strengthening is forecast after Ernesto exits the Caribbean, when
nearly all of the environmental conditions appear conducive. The
NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in
the short term, trending toward the latest consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday and to the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect for this entire area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.

3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to
Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 16.0N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.2N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 18.5N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 20.9N 67.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 22.9N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 25.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 66.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 32.5N 64.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 122044
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 57.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 57.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 56.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.2N 60.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 65.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.9N 67.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.9N 67.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 66.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 140SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 32.5N 64.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 57.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 122045
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 57.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 57.5 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands
late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then
forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 121746
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 56.4W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.5 North, longitude 56.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected
to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or
Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Tuesday evening. Then, the disturbance is forecast to move away
from Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical
depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it
nears the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the
Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands...1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 121456
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm
indicate a low-level center could be attempting to form closer to
some increased convective activity within the northern semicircle of
the disturbance. While the disturbance appears to be gradually
becoming better organized in satellite imagery, the lack of a
well-defined center means it will remain a potential tropical
cyclone for this advisory. Based on the flight-level winds and some
distant scatterometer data over the eastern part of the circulation,
the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon
and help us assess any changes to the low-level wind field.

Overall, the disturbance has moved a little faster to the west than
previous estimates, and the initial motion remains quickly westward
(280/23 kt). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days
while the system moves around the southwestern extent of the
subtropical ridge. This will bring the center over portions of the
Leeward Islands late tonight into Tuesday, and then near or over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday night and Wednesday. By
midweek, the system will reach a weakness in the mid-level ridge
caused by a mid-latitude trough moving across the western Atlantic.
This should induce a northwestward to northward motion during the
latter half of the forecast period. The track guidance envelope has
shifted to the left of the previous track, likely a product of the
faster forward speed and the weaker initial state of the system.
Only small adjustments were made to the near-term NHC track
forecast, with a slightly larger westward adjustment at days 3-5.

Until the disturbance becomes better organized, the large radius of
maximum wind and some northeasterly shear should only allow for
modest strengthening during the next 24-48 h. The NHC forecast shows
it becoming a tropical storm in 24 h and continuing to slowly
strengthen while it passes over the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Once
the system reaches the western Atlantic, the intensity guidance
favors more significant strengthening, and the system is forecast to
become a hurricane in 3 days and continue intensifying thereafter.
No major changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast this cycle,
which remains close to the multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm as it
reaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for most of these islands, where tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin late tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands by later
today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into
Thursday.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, where tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin Tuesday night or early Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 15.1N 55.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0000Z 15.5N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/1200Z 16.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.8N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 20.5N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 22.7N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 31.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 121456
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO...
...DISTURBANCE STILL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 55.6W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, has been upgraded to a Tropical
Storm Warning.

The government of Antigua has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.1 North, longitude 55.6 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward
Islands late tonight or Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening. Then, the
disturbance is forecast to move away from Puerto Rico over the
western Atlantic through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical
depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it
nears the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the
Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands...1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 121455
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 55.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 55.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 54.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.5N 58.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N 62.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.8N 66.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.5N 67.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.7N 68.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 55.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 121153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 54.3W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St.
Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

The government of the Netherlands has upgraded the Tropical Storm
Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of France has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St.
Barthelemy.

The government of Sint Maarten has upgraded the Tropical Storm
Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor
the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches
or warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.6 North, longitude 54.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 26 mph (43 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected with some decrease in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is
expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late
tonight or Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later
today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the
Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands...1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning late tonight or Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 120837
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040
indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not
have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not
well organized. However, these observations also suggest the
possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or
northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by
either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter
flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone
status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt.

The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt. A mid-level ridge is
forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical
cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less
maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease
in forward speed. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving
eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a
large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning
northwestward and northward into the break. While the model
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there
is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will
eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track
with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.

Based on the disturbance's currently disorganized state and
continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first
36 h has been nudged downward. However the system is still
expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward
Islands. Environmental conditions become more favorable for
development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows
significant strengthening during that time. This portion of the
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or
as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are
in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.

3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the
nearby islands. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.4N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 120836
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 52.5W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 52.5W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 51.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 52.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 120836
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 52.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor
the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.4 North, longitude 52.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across
portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later
today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). A
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system this morning.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the
Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning late tonight or Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 120532
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 51.4W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be required later
this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.3 North, longitude 51.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward
Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected
to become a tropical storm by late today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward
Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands... 1 to 2 inches
Southern Leeward Islands... 2 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including
St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 120412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.08.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 52.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.08.2024 13.0N 52.4W WEAK
12UTC 12.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 52.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.08.2024 13.0N 52.4W WEAK
12UTC 12.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.7N 71.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2024 22.7N 71.1W WEAK
00UTC 16.08.2024 24.1N 71.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2024 26.1N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2024 27.7N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2024 28.8N 69.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2024 30.2N 70.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2024 32.8N 69.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2024 36.4N 68.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120412


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 120243
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

The system remains very broad and the deep convection is still not
well organized, and data from a partial ASCAT pass suggest that a
well-defined circulation has not yet formed. Given the lack of
increase in organization of the cloud pattern, the current intensity
is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The disturbance is expected to
pass near or over data buoy 41040 soon, which could help better
assess the status of the system.

Although the center is not well-defined, the system appears to be
continuing its fast west-northwestward motion at around 285/20 kt.
A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the
potential tropical cyclone for the next 48 hours, which should more
or less maintain the current heading during that period. In the 2
to 3 day time frame, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the U.S.
east coast should cause the system to turn northward to the north of
the Greater Antilles. Later in the forecast period a turn toward
the north-northeast, ahead of the trough, is anticipated. The NHC
forecast track is just a little to the left of the previous one
during the next 48 hours, and is close to the latest model
consensus. It should again be noted that forecast tracks for
potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than usual
because of the greater uncertainty in the initial center position.

The disturbance is currently being affected by some easterly
vertical wind shear which is probably inhibiting its initial
development and intensification. The shear is likely to weaken soon
and the thermodynamic environment is expected to become more
conducive over the next few days. The official forecast calls for
intensification in general agreement with the intensity model
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.

3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
islands of the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, by
early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 14.1N 50.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/1200Z 14.8N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/0000Z 15.6N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 13/1200Z 16.2N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 18.7N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 20.3N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 24.5N 67.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 28.5N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 120240
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 50.1W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 50.1W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 53.9W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.6N 58.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.2N 61.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 63.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N 65.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.3N 66.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.5N 67.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 28.5N 65.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 50.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 120241
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 50.1W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Barthelemy.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be required early
Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 14.1 North, longitude 50.1 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions
of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected
to become a tropical storm by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward
Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands... 1 to 2 inches
Southern Leeward Islands... 2 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including
St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning Monday night. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 112335
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 49.1W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be
required later tonight or early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
13.9 North, longitude 49.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward
Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected
to become a tropical storm by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward
Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands... 1 to 2 inches
Southern Leeward Islands... 2 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning Monday night. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 112049
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past
several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that
the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a
well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible
satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the
circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become
a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands
during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
will be investigating this system on Monday.

The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast
west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion
should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday.
Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast
should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by
Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the
system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico
on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the
track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more
uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an
environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next
day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the
disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given
the current organizational state of the convection and low-level
wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before
it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system
reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly
conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system
is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to
strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely
continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast
to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the
western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the
intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the
consensus aids beyond a couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.

3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early
Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress
of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 112048
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC SUN AUG 11 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 48.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 48.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 48.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 112049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 48.0W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe and St. Martin.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be required
tonight or early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
13.6 North, longitude 48.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward
Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward
Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 2 inches
Southern Leeward Islands… 2 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning Monday night. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi