Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for AMPIL-24 in Japan from 12 Aug 2024 12:00 UTC to 18 Aug 2024 06:00 UTC

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Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AMPIL-24

in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

19/08 00:43 WTPQ52RJTD190000

18/08 21:40 WTJP33RJTD182100

18/08 21:40 WTPQ52RJTD182100

18/08 19:54 WTPQ32RJTD181800

18/08 18:43 WTPQ52RJTD181800

18/08 18:42 WTJP23RJTD181800

18/08 15:37 WTJP33RJTD181500

18/08 15:37 WTPQ52RJTD181500

18/08 13:44 WTPQ32RJTD181200

18/08 12:48 WTPQ52RJTD181200

18/08 12:48 WTJP23RJTD181200

18/08 09:44 WTJP33RJTD180900

18/08 09:44 WTPQ52RJTD180900

18/08 08:26 WTPN33PGTW180900

18/08 07:33 WTPQ32RJTD180600

18/08 06:43 WTPQ52RJTD180600

18/08 06:42 WTJP23RJTD180600

18/08 03:41 WTJP33RJTD180300

18/08 03:41 WTPQ52RJTD180300

18/08 02:00 WTPN33PGTW180300

18/08 01:20 WTPQ32RJTD180000

18/08 00:48 WTPQ52RJTD180000

18/08 00:47 WTJP23RJTD180000

17/08 21:46 WTPQ52RJTD172100

17/08 21:46 WTJP33RJTD172100

17/08 19:37 WTPQ32RJTD171800

17/08 18:47 WTPQ52RJTD171800

17/08 18:47 WTJP23RJTD171800

17/08 15:41 WTJP33RJTD171500

17/08 15:41 WTPQ52RJTD171500

17/08 13:38 WTPN33PGTW171500

17/08 13:22 WTPQ32RJTD171200

17/08 12:43 WTPQ52RJTD171200

17/08 12:43 WTJP23RJTD171200

17/08 09:43 WTJP33RJTD170900

17/08 09:43 WTPQ52RJTD170900

17/08 07:33 WTPQ32RJTD170600

17/08 06:48 WTPQ52RJTD170600

17/08 06:48 WTJP23RJTD170600

17/08 03:38 WTJP33RJTD170300

17/08 03:38 WTPQ52RJTD170300

17/08 01:27 WTPQ32RJTD170000

17/08 00:44 WTPQ52RJTD170000

17/08 00:43 WTJP23RJTD170000

16/08 21:43 WTJP33RJTD162100

16/08 21:43 WTPQ52RJTD162100

16/08 19:20 WTPQ32RJTD161800

16/08 18:45 WTPQ52RJTD161800

16/08 18:45 WTJP23RJTD161800

16/08 15:49 WTJP33RJTD161500

16/08 15:49 WTPQ52RJTD161500

16/08 13:28 WTPQ32RJTD161200

16/08 12:49 WTPQ52RJTD161200

16/08 12:49 WTJP23RJTD161200

16/08 09:50 WTJP33RJTD160900

16/08 09:50 WTPQ52RJTD160900

16/08 08:26 WTPN33PGTW160900

16/08 07:33 WTPQ32RJTD160600

16/08 06:51 WTPQ52RJTD160600

16/08 06:50 WTJP23RJTD160600

16/08 03:49 WTJP33RJTD160300

16/08 03:49 WTPQ52RJTD160300

16/08 01:53 WTPN33PGTW160300

16/08 01:26 WTPQ32RJTD160000

16/08 00:43 WTPQ52RJTD160000

16/08 00:42 WTJP23RJTD160000

15/08 21:46 WTJP33RJTD152100

15/08 21:46 WTPQ52RJTD152100

15/08 19:22 WTPQ32RJTD151800

15/08 18:49 WTPQ52RJTD151800

15/08 18:49 WTJP23RJTD151800

15/08 15:41 WTJP33RJTD151500

15/08 15:41 WTPQ52RJTD151500

15/08 14:10 WTPN33PGTW151500

15/08 13:04 WTPQ32RJTD151200

15/08 12:46 WTPQ52RJTD151200

15/08 12:46 WTJP23RJTD151200

15/08 09:44 WTJP33RJTD150900

15/08 09:44 WTPQ52RJTD150900

15/08 07:24 WTPQ32RJTD150600

15/08 06:46 WTPQ52RJTD150600

15/08 06:46 WTJP23RJTD150600

15/08 03:43 WTJP33RJTD150300

15/08 03:43 WTPQ52RJTD150300

15/08 02:01 WTPN33PGTW150300

15/08 01:51 WTPQ32RJTD150000

15/08 00:51 WTPQ52RJTD150000

15/08 00:50 WTJP23RJTD150000

14/08 21:43 WTJP33RJTD142100

14/08 21:42 WTPQ52RJTD142100

14/08 20:32 WTPN33PGTW142100

14/08 19:50 WTPQ32RJTD141800

14/08 18:49 WTPQ52RJTD141800

14/08 18:49 WTJP23RJTD141800

14/08 15:47 WTPQ52RJTD141500

14/08 15:46 WTJP33RJTD141500

14/08 13:53 WTPQ32RJTD141200

14/08 12:49 WTPQ52RJTD141200

14/08 12:48 WTJP23RJTD141200

14/08 09:46 WTJP33RJTD140900

14/08 09:46 WTPQ52RJTD140900

14/08 07:51 WTPQ32RJTD140600

14/08 06:51 WTPQ52RJTD140600

14/08 06:50 WTJP23RJTD140600

14/08 03:48 WTPQ52RJTD140300

14/08 03:48 WTJP33RJTD140300

14/08 02:27 WTPN33PGTW140300

14/08 02:08 WTPQ32RJTD140000

14/08 00:50 WTPQ52RJTD140000

14/08 00:49 WTJP23RJTD140000

13/08 21:41 WTJP33RJTD132100

13/08 21:41 WTPQ52RJTD132100

13/08 20:09 WTPQ32RJTD131800

13/08 18:46 WTPQ52RJTD131800

13/08 18:45 WTJP23RJTD131800

13/08 16:11 WTPN33PGTW131500COR

13/08 15:41 WTJP33RJTD131500

13/08 15:41 WTPQ52RJTD131500

13/08 13:57 WTPQ32RJTD131200

13/08 12:47 WTPQ52RJTD131200

13/08 12:47 WTJP23RJTD131200

13/08 09:45 WTJP33RJTD130900

13/08 09:44 WTPQ52RJTD130900

13/08 07:47 WTPQ32RJTD130600

13/08 06:49 WTPQ52RJTD130600

13/08 06:48 WTJP23RJTD130600

13/08 03:46 WTJP33RJTD130300

13/08 03:45 WTPQ52RJTD130300

13/08 02:14 WTPN33PGTW130300

13/08 01:52 WTPQ32RJTD130000

13/08 00:49 WTPQ52RJTD130000

13/08 00:48 WTJP23RJTD130000

12/08 22:01 WTPQ52RJTD122100

12/08 21:33 WTPQ33PGUM122132

12/08 19:59 WTPQ32RJTD121800

12/08 19:10 WTPQ52RJTD121800

12/08 19:10 WTJP23RJTD121800

12/08 14:10 WTPQ33PGUM121407

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 44N 162E
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 976HPA
MXWD 055KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 182100
WARNING 182100.
WARNING VALID 192100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 43.6N 161.5E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 24 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 46.6N 167.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 52.0N 171.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 43.6N 161.5E GOOD
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 190900UTC 46.6N 167.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 192100UTC 52.0N 171.3E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 43.0N, 160.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 43.0N 160.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 190600UTC 45.6N 165.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 191800UTC 50.6N 171.3E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 43.0N 160.3E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 45.6N 165.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 50.6N 171.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 181500
WARNING 181500.
WARNING VALID 191500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 42.1N 159.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 23 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 44.7N 164.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 48.7N 170.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
972 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 42.1N 159.0E GOOD
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 190300UTC 44.7N 164.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 191500UTC 48.7N 170.1E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 41.8N, 157.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-19/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 41.8N 157.9E GOOD
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 190000UTC 44.0N 162.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 191200UTC 47.2N 168.7E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975
HPA
AT 41.8N 157.9E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 44.0N 162.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 47.2N 168.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
972 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 180900
WARNING 180900.
WARNING VALID 190900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 970 HPA
AT 41.2N 157.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 43.4N 161.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 46.3N 167.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
972 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 41.2N 157.0E GOOD
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 182100UTC 43.4N 161.6E 30NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 190900UTC 46.3N 167.4E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 40.5N 155.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 40.5N 155.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 42.7N 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 45.4N 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 41.1N 156.6E.
18AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 643 NM
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY PEAK WIND SPEEDS EVIDENT IN A
180140Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS AS WELL AS EARLIER ASCAT DATA. OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, 08W HAS MERGED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
AND IS RAPIDLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 50 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 40.4N, 155.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 40.4N 155.2E GOOD
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 181800UTC 42.8N 160.6E 30NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 190600UTC 45.1N 165.8E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 180600
WARNING 180600.
WARNING VALID 190600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 970 HPA
AT 40.4N 155.2E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 23 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 42.8N 160.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 45.1N 165.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
972 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 180300
WARNING 180300.
WARNING VALID 190300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 970 HPA
AT 40.1N 154.3E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 42.4N 159.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 44.9N 165.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 40.1N 154.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 181500UTC 42.4N 159.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 190300UTC 44.9N 165.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 200000UTC 52.5N 172.9E 70NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 023
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 39.5N 152.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.5N 152.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 40.4N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 42.5N 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 45.1N 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 39.7N 153.1E.
18AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
522 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 980 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 39.6N, 152.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 39.6N 152.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 181200UTC 41.5N 158.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 190000UTC 43.7N 163.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 200000UTC 52.5N 172.9E 70NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 180000
WARNING 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 970 HPA
AT 39.6N 152.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 41.5N 158.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 43.7N 163.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 52.5N 172.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 39.0N 150.8E GOOD
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 180900UTC 40.8N 156.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 182100UTC 43.3N 161.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 191800UTC 49.2N 172.0E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 172100
WARNING 172100.
WARNING VALID 182100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 970 HPA
AT 39.0N 150.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 40.8N 156.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 43.3N 161.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 38.2N, 149.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 38.2N 149.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 180600UTC 40.3N 155.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 181800UTC 42.5N 160.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 191800UTC 49.2N 172.0E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 970 HPA
AT 38.2N 149.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 40.3N 155.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 42.5N 160.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 49.2N 172.0E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 171500
WARNING 171500.
WARNING VALID 181500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 965 HPA
AT 37.7N 148.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 39.8N 153.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 41.7N 159.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 37.7N 148.5E GOOD
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 180300UTC 39.8N 153.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 181500UTC 41.7N 159.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 191200UTC 46.0N 168.3E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 37.8N 147.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 147.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 39.2N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 41.0N 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 43.2N 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 38.2N 148.4E.
17AUG24. TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 959 MB.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 37.6N, 147.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 37.6N 147.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 180000UTC 39.3N 152.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 181200UTC 41.0N 157.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 191200UTC 46.0N 168.3E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 965 HPA
AT 37.6N 147.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 39.3N 152.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 41.0N 157.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 46.0N 168.3E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 170900
WARNING 170900.
WARNING VALID 180900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 965 HPA
AT 37.4N 146.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 38.9N 151.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 40.6N 156.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 37.4N 146.1E GOOD
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 172100UTC 38.9N 151.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 180900UTC 40.6N 156.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 190600UTC 44.6N 165.1E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 37.2N, 144.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 37.2N 144.8E GOOD
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 171800UTC 38.5N 149.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 180600UTC 40.2N 154.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 190600UTC 44.6N 165.1E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 965 HPA
AT 37.2N 144.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 38.5N 149.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 40.2N 154.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 44.6N 165.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 170300
WARNING 170300.
WARNING VALID 180300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 955 HPA
AT 37.0N 144.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 38.3N 148.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 39.8N 153.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 37.0N 144.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 171500UTC 38.3N 148.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 180300UTC 39.8N 153.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 190000UTC 43.2N 162.1E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 36.5N, 143.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN
A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 36.5N 143.9E GOOD
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 171200UTC 38.0N 147.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 180000UTC 39.4N 152.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 190000UTC 43.2N 162.1E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 36.5N 143.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 38.0N 147.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 39.4N 152.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 43.2N 162.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 162100
WARNING 162100.
WARNING VALID 172100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 36.1N 143.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 37.6N 146.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 38.9N 150.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 36.1N 143.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170900UTC 37.6N 146.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 172100UTC 38.9N 150.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 181800UTC 41.6N 159.6E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 36.0N, 142.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 36.0N 142.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170600UTC 37.3N 145.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 171800UTC 38.6N 149.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 181800UTC 41.6N 159.6E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 36.0N 142.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 37.3N 145.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 38.6N 149.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 41.6N 159.6E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 35.6N 142.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 37.1N 144.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 38.3N 148.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 35.6N 142.2E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170300UTC 37.1N 144.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 171500UTC 38.3N 148.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 181200UTC 40.7N 157.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 191200UTC 45.1N 167.8E 80NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 35.0N, 141.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT06. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT03 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT06 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 35.0N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170000UTC 36.8N 143.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 171200UTC 37.9N 147.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 181200UTC 40.7N 157.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 191200UTC 45.1N 167.8E 80NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 35.0N 141.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 36.8N 143.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 37.9N 147.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 40.7N 157.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 45.1N 167.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 160900
WARNING 160900.
WARNING VALID 170900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 34.5N 141.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 36.5N 143.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 37.7N 146.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 34.5N 141.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 162100UTC 36.5N 143.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 170900UTC 37.7N 146.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 180600UTC 40.4N 154.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 190600UTC 44.3N 165.1E 80NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 34.1N 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 35.7N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 34.1N, 141.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT03 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 34.1N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 161800UTC 36.1N 142.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 170600UTC 37.5N 145.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 180600UTC 40.4N 154.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 190600UTC 44.3N 165.1E 80NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 34.1N 141.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 36.1N 142.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 37.5N 145.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 40.4N 154.8E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 44.3N 165.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
972 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 160300
WARNING 160300.
WARNING VALID 170300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 33.8N 140.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 35.7N 141.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 37.3N 144.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 33.8N 140.8E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 161500UTC 35.7N 141.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 170300UTC 37.3N 144.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 180000UTC 39.6N 152.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 190000UTC 43.2N 162.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 200000UTC 50.0N 172.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 33.5N 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.5N 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 35.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 36.8N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 38.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 39.5N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 42.8N 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 140.9E.
16AUG24. TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 33.5N, 140.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT03 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 33.5N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 161200UTC 35.4N 141.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 170000UTC 36.9N 143.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 180000UTC 39.6N 152.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 190000UTC 43.2N 162.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 200000UTC 50.0N 172.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 33.5N 140.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 35.4N 141.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 36.9N 143.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 39.6N 152.0E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 43.2N 162.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 50.0N 172.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 152100
WARNING 152100.
WARNING VALID 162100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 33.1N 140.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 34.9N 141.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 36.6N 142.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 33.1N 140.9E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 160900UTC 34.9N 141.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 162100UTC 36.6N 142.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 171800UTC 38.6N 149.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 181800UTC 41.7N 159.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 191800UTC 47.3N 171.1E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 32.6N, 140.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT15. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT15 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 32.6N 140.8E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 160600UTC 34.4N 141.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 161800UTC 36.2N 142.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 171800UTC 38.6N 149.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 181800UTC 41.7N 159.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 191800UTC 47.3N 171.1E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 32.6N 140.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 34.4N 141.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 36.2N 142.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 38.6N 149.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 41.7N 159.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 47.3N 171.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 151500
WARNING 151500.
WARNING VALID 161500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 32.0N 140.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 34.0N 140.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 35.7N 141.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 32.0N 140.8E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 160300UTC 34.0N 140.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 161500UTC 35.7N 141.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 171200UTC 37.9N 146.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 181200UTC 40.4N 156.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 191200UTC 44.6N 168.2E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 31.5N 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.5N 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 33.4N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 31.5N, 140.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME
DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW
TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 31.5N 140.9E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 160000UTC 33.5N 140.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 161200UTC 35.3N 141.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 171200UTC 37.9N 146.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 181200UTC 40.4N 156.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 191200UTC 44.6N 168.2E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 950 HPA
AT 31.5N 140.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 33.5N 140.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 35.3N 141.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 37.9N 146.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 40.4N 156.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 44.6N 168.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 150900
WARNING 150900.
WARNING VALID 160900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 960 HPA
AT 31.0N 141.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 33.1N 140.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 35.0N 141.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 31.0N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 152100UTC 33.1N 140.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 160900UTC 35.0N 141.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 170600UTC 37.4N 144.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 180600UTC 39.4N 153.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 190600UTC 42.7N 164.4E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 141.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 30.5N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 151800UTC 32.7N 140.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 160600UTC 34.4N 140.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 170600UTC 37.4N 144.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 180600UTC 39.4N 153.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 190600UTC 42.7N 164.4E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 965 HPA
AT 30.5N 141.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 32.7N 140.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 34.4N 140.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 37.4N 144.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 39.4N 153.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 42.7N 164.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 150300
WARNING 150300.
WARNING VALID 160300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) 970 HPA
AT 29.9N 141.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 32.1N 140.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 34.0N 140.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 29.9N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 151500UTC 32.1N 140.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 160300UTC 34.0N 140.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 170000UTC 36.8N 142.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 180000UTC 38.9N 150.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 190000UTC 41.7N 161.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 200000UTC 47.6N 171.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 29.7N 141.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 141.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.7N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 33.7N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 35.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 36.8N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 39.1N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 41.8N 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 141.1E.
15AUG24. TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 29.6N, 141.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF
AN EYE. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2407 AMPIL (2407) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 29.6N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 151200UTC 31.7N 140.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 160000UTC 33.6N 140.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 170000UTC 36.8N 142.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 180000UTC 38.9N 150.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 190000UTC 41.7N 161.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 200000UTC 47.6N 171.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2407 AMPIL (2407) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA
AT 29.6N 141.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 31.7N 140.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 33.6N 140.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 36.8N 142.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 38.9N 150.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 41.7N 161.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 47.6N 171.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 142100
WARNING 142100.
WARNING VALID 152100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 29.2N 141.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 31.2N 141.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 33.2N 141.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 29.2N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150900UTC 31.2N 141.3E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 152100UTC 33.2N 141.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 161800UTC 36.3N 142.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 171800UTC 38.5N 149.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 181800UTC 40.9N 159.6E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 191800UTC 45.7N 171.2E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 28.4N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.2N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.5N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 34.2N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 35.8N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 38.1N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 41.0N 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 141.3E.
14AUG24. TYPHOON 08W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 28.5N, 141.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, LAND AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 28.5N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150600UTC 30.6N 141.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 151800UTC 32.7N 141.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 161800UTC 36.3N 142.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 171800UTC 38.5N 149.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 181800UTC 40.9N 159.6E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 191800UTC 45.7N 171.2E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 28.5N 141.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 30.6N 141.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 32.7N 141.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 36.3N 142.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 38.5N 149.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 40.9N 159.6E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 45.7N 171.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 28.0N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150300UTC 29.9N 141.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 151500UTC 32.1N 141.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 161200UTC 35.5N 141.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 171200UTC 38.2N 146.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 181200UTC 40.6N 157.2E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 191200UTC 44.5N 168.2E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 28.0N 141.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 29.9N 141.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 32.1N 141.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 141.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 27.5N 141.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150000UTC 29.4N 141.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 151200UTC 31.6N 141.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 161200UTC 35.5N 141.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 171200UTC 38.2N 146.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 181200UTC 40.6N 157.2E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 191200UTC 44.5N 168.2E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 27.5N 141.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 29.4N 141.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 31.6N 141.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 35.5N 141.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 38.2N 146.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 40.6N 157.2E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 44.5N 168.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 27.0N 141.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 28.7N 141.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 30.9N 141.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 27.0N 141.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 142100UTC 28.7N 141.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 150900UTC 30.9N 141.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 160600UTC 34.7N 141.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 170600UTC 38.0N 144.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 180600UTC 40.3N 154.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 190600UTC 43.8N 165.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 26.6N, 140.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 26.6N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 141800UTC 28.3N 140.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 150600UTC 30.4N 140.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 160600UTC 34.7N 141.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 170600UTC 38.0N 144.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 180600UTC 40.3N 154.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 190600UTC 43.8N 165.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 26.6N 140.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 28.3N 140.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 30.4N 140.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 34.7N 141.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 38.0N 144.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 40.3N 154.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 43.8N 165.7E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 26.4N 140.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 141500UTC 27.8N 140.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 150300UTC 29.7N 140.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 160000UTC 33.7N 140.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 170000UTC 37.4N 143.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 180000UTC 40.1N 152.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 190000UTC 42.5N 163.2E 215NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 140300
WARNING 140300.
WARNING VALID 150300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 26.4N 140.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 27.8N 140.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 29.7N 140.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 26.0N 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.3N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 26.1N, 140.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 26.1N 140.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 29.3N 140.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 160000UTC 33.7N 140.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 170000UTC 37.4N 143.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 180000UTC 40.1N 152.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 190000UTC 42.5N 163.2E 215NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 26.1N 140.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 29.3N 140.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 33.7N 140.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 37.4N 143.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 40.1N 152.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 42.5N 163.2E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 132100
WARNING 132100.
WARNING VALID 142100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 26.0N 139.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 28.8N 140.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 26.0N 139.9E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 28.8N 140.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 151800UTC 32.4N 140.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 161800UTC 36.5N 141.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 171800UTC 39.4N 148.8E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 181800UTC 43.7N 161.2E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 25.5N, 139.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A
CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 25.5N 139.4E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 28.4N 140.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 151800UTC 32.4N 140.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 161800UTC 36.5N 141.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 171800UTC 39.4N 148.8E 175NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 181800UTC 43.7N 161.2E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 975 HPA
AT 25.5N 139.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 28.4N 140.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 32.4N 140.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 36.5N 141.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 39.4N 148.8E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 43.7N 161.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 131500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 138.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 138.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.5N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 131500
WARNING 131500.
WARNING VALID 141500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 985 HPA
AT 25.5N 139.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 27.8N 140.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 25.5N 139.1E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 27.8N 140.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 151200UTC 31.3N 140.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 161200UTC 35.4N 140.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 171200UTC 38.8N 146.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 181200UTC 40.9N 157.1E 215NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 25.3N, 139.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A
CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 25.3N 139.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 27.4N 140.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 151200UTC 31.3N 140.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 161200UTC 35.4N 140.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 171200UTC 38.8N 146.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 181200UTC 40.9N 157.1E 215NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 985 HPA
AT 25.3N 139.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 27.4N 140.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 31.3N 140.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 35.4N 140.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 38.8N 146.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 40.9N 157.1E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 130900
WARNING 130900.
WARNING VALID 140900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 990 HPA
AT 25.1N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 26.1N 139.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 27.0N 140.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 25.1N 138.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 132100UTC 26.1N 139.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 140900UTC 27.0N 140.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 150600UTC 30.0N 140.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 160600UTC 34.4N 140.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 170600UTC 38.4N 144.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 180600UTC 40.9N 154.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 24.6N, 138.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2407 AMPIL (2407) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 24.6N 138.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131800UTC 25.7N 138.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 140600UTC 26.5N 139.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 150600UTC 30.0N 140.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 160600UTC 34.4N 140.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 170600UTC 38.4N 144.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 180600UTC 40.9N 154.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 24.6N 138.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 25.7N 138.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 26.5N 139.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 30.0N 140.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 34.4N 140.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 38.4N 144.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 40.9N 154.4E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 130300
WARNING 130300.
WARNING VALID 140300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 996 HPA
AT 24.4N 138.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 26.5N 139.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 24.4N 138.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 26.5N 139.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 150000UTC 29.0N 140.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 160000UTC 33.3N 139.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 170000UTC 37.7N 142.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 180000UTC 41.3N 151.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 003
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 24.5N 138.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 138.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.5N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.3N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.2N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 28.9N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 33.2N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 37.1N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 40.0N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 138.4E.
13AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 08W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 653 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130000Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 23.9N, 137.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 23.9N 137.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 26.2N 139.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 150000UTC 29.0N 140.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 160000UTC 33.3N 139.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 170000UTC 37.7N 142.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 180000UTC 41.3N 151.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) 996 HPA
AT 23.9N 137.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 26.2N 139.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 29.0N 140.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 33.3N 139.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 37.7N 142.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 41.3N 151.4E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 23.9N 137.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130900UTC 25.5N 138.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 132100UTC 26.3N 139.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 141800UTC 28.2N 140.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 151800UTC 32.5N 140.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 161800UTC 36.7N 141.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 171800UTC 40.5N 148.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 PGUM 122132
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ampil (08W) Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP082024
732 AM ChST Tue Aug 13 2024

...08W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TD 08W is now Tropical Storm Ampil (08W).

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...24.7N 138.1E

About 200 miles west of Iwo To Island
About 825 miles northwest of Saipan
About 890 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 1050 miles north of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...northeast...35 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Ampil was
located near Latitude 24.7 degrees North and Longitude 138.1 degrees
East. Tropical Storm Ampil is moving northeast at 12 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course with a decrease in forward
speed through Wednesday. Ampil is expected to lift north of 25N and
out of Guam's area of responsibility later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph. Tropical Storm
Ampil is forecast to intensify through tonight, and may become
a typhoon by Wednesday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
90 miles to the south and up to 0 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Tropical Storm Ampil.

$$

Schank

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2407 AMPIL (2407)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 23.3N, 136.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(AMPIL) STATUS. TS AMPIL IS LOCATED AT 23.7N, 136.8E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE
GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND
AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2407 AMPIL (2407) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 23.7N 136.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130600UTC 25.4N 138.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 131800UTC 26.2N 139.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 141800UTC 28.2N 140.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 151800UTC 32.5N 140.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 161800UTC 36.7N 141.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 171800UTC 40.5N 148.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2407 AMPIL (2407) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 23.7N 136.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 25.4N 138.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 26.2N 139.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 28.2N 140.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 32.5N 140.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 36.7N 141.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 40.5N 148.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ33 PGUM 121407
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 08W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP082024
1207 AM ChST Tue Aug 13 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W FORMS WEST OF IWO TO ISLAND...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...23.9N 137.0E

About 280 miles west of Iwo To Island
About 830 miles northwest of Saipan
About 880 miles northwest of Guam
About 995 miles north of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...north-northeast...30 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 08W
will be located near Latitude 23.9 degrees North and Longitude
137.0 degrees East. 08W is moving north-northeast at 8 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the northeast with little
change in forward speed through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. 08W is forecast to intensify
through over the coming days, possibly becoming a tropical storm by
by tonight and then a typhoon by Wednesday night.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Slagle

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