Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ELEVEN-E-24
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 032039
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Eleven-E Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH...
...REMNANTS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 94.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Ther are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Although the warnings have been discontinued, interests in
southeastern Mexico should continue monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Eleven-E were located near
latitude 15.7 North, longitude 94.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward to
northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track,
the remnants of the depression should move inland over the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec later today or tonight.

Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the
remnants are forecast to dissipate over Mexico on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, mainly in offshore flow to the north and west of
the remnants.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of
the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon and tonight.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with localized
amounts up to 8 inches, is expected across portions of the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.
This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
the Remnants of Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in
areas of onshore flow.

SURF: Swells generated by the Remnants of Eleven-E are affecting
portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants
please see forecasts issued by the Meteorological Service of Mexico
and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 032040
TCDEP1

Remnants Of Eleven-E Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

A recent ASCAT overpass shows that a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind
event has interacted with the depression and disrupted the
circulation. The scatterometer data indicate that there is no
longer a well-defined closed circulation. although tropical-storm
force winds are occurring to the northwest of the remains of the
center. Based on this, the depression has degenerated to an open
trough even though there are now stronger winds associated with the
system than earlier. Thus, advisories and the Tropical Storm
Warnings are being discontinued, and the current winds will be
handled in marine gale warnings.

The remnants of the center are near a cluster of convection over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and they should move northward over
southeastern Mexico in the next 6-12 h. The remnants are expected
to dissipate over Mexico on Friday.

Although the depression has degenerated, the threat of heavy
rainfall will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the
next day or two.

For additional information on the remnant low please see forecasts
from the Meteorological Service of Mexico and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued,
wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next
several hours along the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
particularly in areas of onshore winds.

2. Due to the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E, additional
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico this
week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain,
are possible, especially across portions of the Mexican states of
Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.7N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/0600Z 16.5N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 032039
TCMEP1

REMNANTS OF ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 94.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 94.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 94.6W...POST-TROPICAL

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 94.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 94.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
PLEASE SEE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO
AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031732
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
1200 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS LESS ORGANIZED...
...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 95.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Puerto Angel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 95.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h),
and a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward
southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or
early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system could be
a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is
expected after landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate on
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early
Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce an
additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 8
inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca,
Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to
areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in
areas of onshore flow.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031435
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 95.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 95.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and
a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On
the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern
Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be
a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is
expected after landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate on
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early
Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce an
additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 8
inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca,
Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to
areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in
areas of onshore flow.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 031435
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

The depression continues to produce a large, but poorly organized,
area of convection, with the low-level center most likely in the
northern portion of the convective mass. Satellite intensity
estimates from SAB and TAFB remain 30 kt, and this is the initial
intensity for this advisory.

The center position has a larger than normal amount of uncertainty,
and the initial motion is also a bit uncertain at 045/5. The track
forecast guidance suggests a generally northward motion should occur
during the next 24-36 h, and the new track forecast follows this in
bringing the center to the coast of Mexico in 12-24 hours and inland
over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec after that. It is possible that
some adjustments to the forecast may occur if data that better shows
the center position becomes available.

While the environment does not favor significant strengthening
before landfall, any intensification at all would bring the system
to tropical storm strength, and the new intensity forecast continues
to show this occurring. After landfall, the system should quickly
weaken, with the remnants eventually becoming absorbed into the
large area of disturbed weather that is forming over the western
Gulf of Mexico. While the forecast shows the system lasting through
36 h, it could dissipate at any time as it crosses the mountains of
Mexico.

Regardless of whether intensification occurs, the primary threat
remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern
Mexico for the next day or two.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Mexico this week. Flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially
across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz,
Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.2N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 031435
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 95.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 95.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 95.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031132
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
600 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 95.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 95.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 4 mph (6 km/h), and a
slightly faster northeastward to northward motion is forecast
through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning
area tonight or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast
to be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early
Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may
lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030848
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

The depression still has a disheveled satellite appearance, with a
few clusters of deep convection but no clear signs of improved
organization since the previous advisory. This is consistent with
the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates (T2.0/30-kt), and the
initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center position of the system
is very uncertain given the lack of recent microwave or
scatterometer data. Based on recent fixes, satellite trends, and
earlier scatterometer data, the center has been nudged slightly
north and east of previous estimates. A partial scatterometer pass
shows the depression is likely interacting with a larger trough that
extends northward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The uncertain initial motion of the system is northeastward at 2 kt.
In general, the global models show a northeastward to northward
motion through Friday while the system approaches and moves across
the coast of southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.
Once again, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward based
on the latest guidance. But, the forecast still might require future
adjustments if it is determined that the center is located farther
east than currently estimated.

Significant intensification appears unlikely given the broad,
disorganized convective structure of the depression and continued
northeasterly shear over the system. However, the warm SSTs and
moist environment in which it is embedded could allow for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of
Mexico, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast.
Regardless, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will
continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible,
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 14.5N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 15.1N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 16.1N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 17.5N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a
slightly faster northeastward to northward motion is forecast
through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning
area tonight or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be a
tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early
Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may
lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030843
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 95.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 95.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 96.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.1N 95.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.1N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 95.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 95.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030539
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
1200 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 96.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 96.6 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a
slow northward motion is expected to continue through Friday. On the
forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern
Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is possible until the system reaches the coast
of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may
lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030414

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.10.2024

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.5N 29.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2024 0 10.5N 29.7W 1007 29
1200UTC 03.10.2024 12 10.2N 30.7W 1005 33
0000UTC 04.10.2024 24 9.7N 31.8W 1005 35
1200UTC 04.10.2024 36 9.7N 32.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 05.10.2024 48 9.7N 34.0W 1004 37
1200UTC 05.10.2024 60 9.8N 35.1W 1004 42
0000UTC 06.10.2024 72 11.0N 35.6W 1003 40
1200UTC 06.10.2024 84 12.8N 35.9W 1000 45
0000UTC 07.10.2024 96 14.7N 37.0W 997 49
1200UTC 07.10.2024 108 16.6N 39.0W 997 45
0000UTC 08.10.2024 120 18.2N 41.2W 999 39
1200UTC 08.10.2024 132 19.4N 43.6W 1001 36
0000UTC 09.10.2024 144 20.4N 45.3W 1004 33
1200UTC 09.10.2024 156 21.6N 47.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 10.10.2024 168 22.5N 48.7W 1009 31

HURRICANE KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 44.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2024 0 19.4N 44.3W 956 94
1200UTC 03.10.2024 12 20.4N 45.7W 949 94
0000UTC 04.10.2024 24 21.6N 46.9W 955 86
1200UTC 04.10.2024 36 23.0N 48.5W 954 85
0000UTC 05.10.2024 48 24.4N 50.0W 952 82
1200UTC 05.10.2024 60 26.4N 51.0W 957 76
0000UTC 06.10.2024 72 29.5N 50.6W 948 88
1200UTC 06.10.2024 84 32.9N 49.4W 949 74
0000UTC 07.10.2024 96 36.6N 46.0W 949 68
1200UTC 07.10.2024 108 40.1N 40.8W 950 71
0000UTC 08.10.2024 120 42.5N 33.5W 958 63
1200UTC 08.10.2024 132 43.4N 24.8W 969 52
0000UTC 09.10.2024 144 44.8N 13.4W 974 48
1200UTC 09.10.2024 156 49.5N 4.2W 967 45
0000UTC 10.10.2024 168 51.6N 0.7W 964 44

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 95.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2024 0 13.9N 95.6W 1004 26
1200UTC 03.10.2024 12 14.0N 95.1W 1006 34
0000UTC 04.10.2024 24 14.0N 94.9W 1006 31
1200UTC 04.10.2024 36 14.7N 95.2W 1008 28
0000UTC 05.10.2024 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.5N 62.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2024 0 34.5N 62.2W 1003 34
1200UTC 03.10.2024 12 33.7N 62.2W 1003 37
0000UTC 04.10.2024 24 33.0N 61.2W 1004 38
1200UTC 04.10.2024 36 32.1N 61.9W 1007 34
0000UTC 05.10.2024 48 32.3N 62.4W 1007 30
1200UTC 05.10.2024 60 31.6N 63.1W 1007 23
0000UTC 06.10.2024 72 31.4N 62.5W 1006 22
1200UTC 06.10.2024 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.3N 134.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2024 12 13.6N 134.6W 1008 19
0000UTC 04.10.2024 24 14.0N 134.3W 1007 18
1200UTC 04.10.2024 36 14.4N 133.9W 1007 18
0000UTC 05.10.2024 48 14.8N 133.8W 1008 19
1200UTC 05.10.2024 60 15.8N 133.9W 1010 20
0000UTC 06.10.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 38.9N 68.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2024 132 39.3N 67.9W 1006 26
0000UTC 09.10.2024 144 40.5N 63.9W 1007 24
1200UTC 09.10.2024 156 44.1N 63.3W 1005 31
0000UTC 10.10.2024 168 47.5N 63.5W 997 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.1N 17.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2024 132 12.1N 17.0W 1005 35
0000UTC 09.10.2024 144 13.7N 19.9W 1005 38
1200UTC 09.10.2024 156 14.6N 22.5W 1004 43
0000UTC 10.10.2024 168 15.7N 24.8W 1003 50


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030413


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030239
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 96.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
turn to the north is expected on Thursday with that motion
continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is
expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall there
Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is possible until the system reaches the
coast of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area late Thursday and Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may
lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030239
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

The depression has changed little during the past several hours,
and it remains embedded in a larger-scale trough that extends from
offshore of Manzanillo northeastward to the central Gulf of Mexico.
The system itself continues to produce patches of deep convection,
and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with 2.0
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression has been drifting southwestward, but the models
generally agree that an abrupt turn to the north should occur on
Thursday, with that motion bringing the system to the coast of
southern Mexico Thursday night or Friday. The NHC track forecast
has been adjusted to the east to be in better agreement with the
latest models, but this prediction still lies to the west of most of
the model solutions.

Strengthening is possible before the cyclone reaches the coast, but
since the system remains disorganized and embedded in a larger
trough, significant intensification seems unlikely. The official
intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. The
main threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall that
will likely continue in portions of southern Mexico during the next
day or two.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible,
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.2N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 14.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 15.8N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030238
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.4N 96.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.9N 96.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.8N 96.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 96.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 022350
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
600 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 96.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 96.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A slow and erratic motion is expected tonight and Thursday, followed
by a northward motion Thursday night through Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast
of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night or early
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the
coast, and the system could become a tropical storm tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area Thursday and Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may
lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 022141
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 96.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 022045
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

The lastest visible satellite imagery shows the center of the
depression as a tight swirl of low-level clouds near patches of
strong, but somewhat disorganized, convection. The remnant
vorticity of the 97E disturbance, also a swirl of low clouds, was
seen earlier to the southeast of the depression center. A recent
ASCAT overpass shows a small wind core matching the tight cloud
swirl with maximum winds of about 30 kt in the northwest quadrant,
and based mainly on this the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The track forecast remains low confidence. The depression is
currently undergoing a binary interaction with the EP97
disturbance, which has resulted in a southwestward motion during
the past several hours. The models still have somewhat diverse
solutions for the subsequent track, although the ECMWF has now
joined the GFS and Canadian in forecasting a northward motion.
However, the UKMET still forecasts a west-northwestward
motion offshore of the Mexican coast. An additional complication
is that some of the guidance suggests the center could move
eastward before beginning the northward motion. The new forecast
track again has significant changes from the previous track to
follow the northward motion scenario, bringing the center to the
coast of Mexico between 36-48 h. However, it does not currently
show any eastward motion before the northward motion, and more
changes may be necessary in later advisories if the track guidance
warrants.

There is no change to either the intensity forecast philosophy or
the intensity forecast. Regardless of exactly where the cyclone
tracks, it is expected to be in an environment of moderate to
strong easterly shear through at least 48 h. This should limit the
intensification, and the forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains
at the upper edge of the guidance. The main impact from this
system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to
flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western
Guatemala.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. A Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast
of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible,
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.1N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 022043
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE
COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 96.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A slow and erratic motion is expected tonight and Thursday,
followed by a northward motion Thursday night through Friday night.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near
the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday
night or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the
coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area Thursday through Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may
lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 022035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 96.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 021732
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
1200 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

...DEPRESSION CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 96.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 96.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (5 km/h).
A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and that general
motion should continue through Friday and Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast
of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday or
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the
coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area later today through Thursday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may
lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 021435
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NOW MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 95.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 95.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and that general
motion should continue through Friday and Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast
of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday or
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast,
and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may
lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 021436
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

First light visible imagery and a GMI microwave overpass during the
night show that the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E is again
a little to the southwest of the previous track. While the system
is part of a large area of convection, the convection is generally
poorly organized, and there has been little change in the various
satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. Based on
this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The track forecast is of low confidence. Satellite imagery and model
analyses indicate that the depression is currently absorbing or
merging with the vorticity of the EP97 disturbance, and this has
resulted in the system center moving slowly southwestward during the
past 6-12 h. The models have diverse solutions for the subsequent
track, with the GFS and Canadian taking the cyclone northward into
eastern Mexico, while the UKMET forecasts a west-northwestward
motion offshore parallel to the coast and the ECMWF forecasting the
system to dissipate over water. The new forecast track is a
compromise between the the GFS and UKMET forecast and shows the
center making landfall between 36-48 h in the current Tropical Storm
Warning area. This forecast has some significant changes in
direction and speed from the previous forecast, and additional
adjustments may be necessary later today and tonight.

Regardless of exactly where the cyclone tracks, it is expected to
be in an environment of moderate to strong easterly shear through
at least 48 h. This should limit the intensification, and the
forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains at the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. The main impact from this system is expected
to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides
over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. A Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast
of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible,
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.9N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 021435
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 95.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 95.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 95.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 021132
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
600 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 95.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 95.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be
near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late
tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the
coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of
flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020844
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

...DEPRESSION FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
westward along the southern coast of Mexico to Lagunas de Chacahua,
and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch east of Boca de
Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the depression is located
farther west than previously estimated. At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC),
the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude
15.4 North, longitude 95.8 West. The depression is moving toward
the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast
track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of
Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late tonight or early
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the
coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of
flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020845
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

Data from both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers show that the
center of the small circulation is located somewhat west to
west-southwest of the earlier track. There were a couple of
scatterometer vectors showing minimal tropical-storm-force winds,
but these appear to be rain-inflated. The advisory intensity is
kept at 30 kt based on subjective and objective satellite
estimates, and the unimpressive appearance of the system.

With the re-positioning of the estimated center, the motion is
highly uncertain but my best guess is around 290/5 kt. The track
forecast is also quite uncertain, but needs to be shifted westward
from the previous one. The new official forecast is a compromise
between the previous NHC prediction, the trajectory model
forecasts, and the dynamical models which are farther south.

The cyclone continues to have the potential for a little
strengthening before it reaches the coast, although fairly strong
northeasterly vertical wind shear will likely limit its
intensification. The official intensity forecast is near the upper
end of the model guidance. The main impact from this system
is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and
mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. Since the
system is now farther west than earlier indicated, the Tropical
Storm Warning has been extended westward along the southern coast
of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible,
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.4N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 15.7N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 16.1N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020843
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 95.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 95.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.6N 96.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.1N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 95.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020541
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
1200 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 94.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 94.7 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or
two. On the forecast track, the depression will likely move inland
later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible before the system
reaches the coast, and it could become a tropical storm this
morning. Weakening is expected after landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning later this morning and are possible in the watch area this
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of
flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 94.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...95 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On
the forecast track, the depression will likely move inland on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible before the system
reaches the coast, and it could become a tropical storm by early
Wednesday. Weakening is expected after landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area Wednesday morning and are possible in the watch area
on Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of
flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020234
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024

The depression has not become better organized this evening. Deep
convection has been separating from the low-level center, which is
now exposed to the east of the thunderstorms. The initial
intensity is held at 30 kt, near the high end of the satellite
estimates.

The system is close to the coast, currently over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, and appears to be moving northward at about 5 kt.
The models don't have a good handle on this system, likely because
it is weak and relatively small. The official track forecast
continues to lean heavily on the ECMWF solution, taking the system
inland over southern Mexico on Wednesday.

There could be a little strengthening before the depression reaches
the coast, but given its current structure, significant
intensification is not expected. The main impact from the system
is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and
mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
moves inland over southern or southeastern Mexico on Wednesday. A
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for that area.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible,
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 15.9N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 16.5N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1200Z 17.0N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020233
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 94.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 94.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 94.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.9N 94.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.0N 94.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 94.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 012334
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
600 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 94.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 94.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion should continue during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the depression is likely to approach the coast
of Mexico within the warning area through tonight and move inland on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm
later tonight, with further intensification possible until
landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area Wednesday morning and are possible in the watch area
on Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of
flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 012055
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024

The small area of low pressure we have been monitoring for the past
couple of days has become well-defined on satellite imagery this
afternoon and was confirmed with recent scatterometer data. There
has been enough organized deep convection today to consider this a
tropical depression, as suggested by the Data-T estimate from
TAFB, and the initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with
the max believable scatterometer values.

The initial motion is an uncertain 360/4 kt. The depression has
been moving northward on the eastern end of the monsoon trough, and
this general track is anticipated through landfall with little
change seen in the steering flow for the next day or two. However,
the model guidance is all over the place, owing to differences in
the initial depth of the tropical depression and strength of the
circulation associated with the monsoon trough and Invest 97E. The
ECMWF model seems to have the best representation of the initial
vortex, and the track forecast heavily leans on that model
solution, especially given its recent successes with cyclones in
that area. However, there is considerable spread in the guidance,
and the tropical storm warning is larger than typical based on that
uncertainty.

Northeasterly shear is expected to continue to affect the
depression through landfall, though very warm SSTs and a moist
mid-level environment should promote some strengthening. These
conditions would seem to favor intensification through landfall,
and the first forecast shows a mid-range tropical storm, above most
of the model guidance. At this point, extreme rainfall and flash
flooding seem to be the biggest threats from this system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
tonight or on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible,
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 15.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.9N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 16.5N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1800Z 17.1N 94.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 012053
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024
300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY FOR THAT AREA AND WESTERN
GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 94.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of southern Mexico from east of Puerto Angel to Boca de
Pijijiapan and a Tropical Storm Watch from east of Boca de
Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 94.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion should continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the depression is likely to approach the coast of
Mexico within the warning area through tonight and move inland on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm this evening
or overnight, with further intensification possible until landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area on Wednesday morning and are possible in the watch
area on Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of
flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 012052
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 94.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.9N 94.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 94.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 94.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 94.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE