Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for NADINE-24
in Guatemala, Mexico, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 201442
TCDAT5

Remnants Of Nadine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

First-light GOES-16 imagery and station observations suggest that
the surface circulation associated with Nadine has dissipated over
southern Mexico. Peak sustained winds remain 25 kt, mainly over the
Bay of Campeche.

The remnants of Nadine are moving toward the west-southwest at
around 12 kt and they are expected to move into the eastern Pacific
later today.

The combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the
formation of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern
Mexico in a day or so. Additional development is expected after that
time, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early
to middle part of this week while the system moves westward at about
15 kt away from the coast of Mexico.

For additional information on the remnants of Nadine as it enters
the eastern Pacific please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php,
and the latest updates in the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
on the web at hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac.


Key Messages:

1. Localized areas of flash flooding will remain possible in
the vicinity of the remnants of Nadine across Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southern Mexico through Tuesday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 16.5N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Nadine Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...NADINE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING STILL EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF BELIZE, GUATEMALA, AND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 93.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Nadine were located near
latitude 16.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and they are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the
formation of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern
Mexico in a day or so. Additional development is expected after
that time, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the
early to middle part of this week while the system moves westward
at about 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.

For additional information on the remnants of Nadine please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php, and the latest updates in the
East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook on the web at
hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the remnants of Nadine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated areas up to 12 inches, are expected across the Mexican
states of Chiapas and Tabasco into Veracruz and Oaxaca through
Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
isolated amounts up to 4 inches, are expected for the remaining
portions of southeastern Mexico into Guatemala and Belize.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
the remnants Nadine, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 201439
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 93.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200841
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Nadine Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Mexican radar data and GOES-16 nighttime visible imagery show that
Nadine still has enough structure to it for the system to remain a
tropical depression at this time. The coverage of cold cloud tops
on infrared imagery has certainly diminished over the past 6 to 12
h, although there are still some cold cloud tops over the center and
in the southwest semicircle. The center of Nadine is moving over
increasingly higher terrain of the Mexican state of Chiapas, with
the peaks of some nearby mountains now as high as 5,000 ft above
sea level.

The depression is moving toward the west-southwest, or 255/12 kt.
The forecast shows the system accelerating slightly and bending a
bit more toward the southwest this morning. This motion would bring
Nadine toward terrain of about 8,000 to 9,000 ft above sea level in
about 6 hours. Terrain of that height is likely to break apart
Nadine's low-level circulation, which should cause the cyclone to
dissipate later this morning. A remnant low position is provided
at 12 hours for continuity, but Nadine will likely have dissipated
by that time.

Key Messages:

1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track
of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern
Belize.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 16.8N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/1800Z 15.7N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200839
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nadine Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...NADINE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 91.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF TUXTLA GUTIERREZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nadine
was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22
km/h). This motion with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected to continue through this morning. On the forecast track,
Nadine will move across portions of southern Mexico this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to dissipate
later this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated areas of 12 inches, are expected across northern
Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from
Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nadine, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200839
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 91.8W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 91.8W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 93.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 91.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200241
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Nadine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Nadine has been moving farther inland over northern Guatemala, and
there are no observations of tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore,
the system was downgraded to a tropical depression at the
intermediate advisory. Belize ground-based radar shows that
Nadine has maintained a decent mid-level circulation and therefore,
the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory.
Continued weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to
dissipate over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico on Sunday.

The depression is moving just south of west at 265/12 kt. A
slightly quicker west-southwestward motion is expected on Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track
of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern
Belize.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 17.2N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 16.7N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 90.6W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 90.6W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 90.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 92.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 90.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200239
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nadine Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...NADINE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 90.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nadine
was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 90.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
continued westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during
the next day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to
move across northern Guatemala and southern Mexico through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to dissipate
on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated areas of 12 inches, are expected across northern Belize,
northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo
westward to Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nadine, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192337
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...NADINE BECOMES A DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER BELIZE, NORTHERN GUATEMALA, AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 90.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Belize has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Belize.

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nadine
was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 90.0 West. Nadine
is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued
westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across
northern Guatemala and southern Mexico through early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Nadine is
forecast to dissipate on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated areas of 12 inches, are expected across northern Belize,
northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo
westward to Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nadine, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 192034
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Nadine made landfall very near Belize City around 11 am CDT (1600
UTC) with peak winds of about 50 kt. Since that time, the storm
has been moving across the northern portion of Belize and losing
strength. The initial intensity is nudged down to 40 kt, with the
strongest winds likely occurring over water and along the coast.
Continued weakening is forecast as Nadine moves farther inland, and
it will likely dissipate on Sunday.

The storm has been accelerating westward, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 270/11 kt. A slightly faster westward or
west-southwestward motion is expected until the system dissipates
over southern Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track
of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern
Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the
warning area through this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 17.4N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/0600Z 17.2N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 89.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 89.4 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued westward
to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so.
On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across northern
Guatemala and southern Mexico through early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to
dissipate on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated areas of 12 inches, are expected across northern Belize,
northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo
westward to Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the
warning area during the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds for a few more hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 192033
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 89.4W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......170NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 89.4W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 88.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 89.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191740
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...NADINE MOVING INLAND ACROSS BELIZE...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PARTS
OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 88.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WNW OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 65 MI...140 KM SSW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located inland near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 88.5 West.
Nadine is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster
westward motion is expected during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southern Mexico through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Nadine will likely dissipate by late
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with
Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern
Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated
areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late
Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
through this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 191601
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...NADINE MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE...

Satellite and radar images indicate that Nadine has made landfall
in Belize, near Belize City around 1100 am CDT (1600 UTC). The
maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) based on data
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations.

A weather station in San Pedro in the southern Yucatan Peninsula
recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust
to 67 mph (107 km/h).

Tropical-storm-conditions are expected across Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula through the afternoon.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez/Delgado


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 191457
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Nadine is very close to making landfall in Belize, near Belize City.
The center is currently moving across the country's barrier islands
of Turneffe Atoll and landfall on the mainland will likely occur
within the next hour. The sprawling tropical storm continues to
slowly intensify, and a combination of objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates support increasing the maximum winds
to 45 kt. Furthermore, radar data indicate that the structure of
Nadine has improved and there are curved bands surrounding the
center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently in the
northern portion of the storm, and they will likely reach the center
soon. A Tropical Cyclone Update will be provided when the storm
makes landfall.

The storm is moving due westward at 7 kt, and the system is expected
to continue accelerating in that direction during the next day or
so. This motion should take Nadine across Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southern Mexico later today through Sunday.

Nadine is expected to weaken after the core moves inland, and it
will likely dissipate over southern Mexico by late Sunday. The
remnants have a high chance of reforming in the eastern Pacific
basin during the early to middle part of next week.


Key Messages:

1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track
of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern
Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the
warning area through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 17.3N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.3N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1200Z 16.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 191457
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......170NE 0SE 0SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.8N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 87.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191457
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...NADINE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PARTS
OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.9 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster westward
motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast
track, Nadine is expected to make landfall near Belize City later
this morning, and then move across Belize, northern Guatemala, and
southern Mexico this afternoon through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected after the storm moves
inland, and it will likely dissipate by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with
Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern
Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated
areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late
Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
through this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEARING LANDFALL IN BELIZE...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PARTS
OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 87.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later this
morning.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.3 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected today and tonight. On
the forecast track, the center of Nadine is forecast to make
landfall along the coast of Belize later this morning or early
afternoon, and then continue across northern Guatemala and
southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph (70 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible this
morning before Nadine makes landfall. Weakening is forecast to
begin this afternoon once Nadine is inland, and the system is likely
to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with
Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern
Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated
areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late
Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
through this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190843
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

ASCAT data from 0309 UTC showed that the disturbance over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea had developed a closed circulation and
well-defined center, with a swath of 30-35 kt winds extending north
off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Based on that information,
the system was designated as Tropical Storm Nadine in the 1 AM CDT
(0600 UTC) intermediate advisory. Satellite data and radar images
from Belize indicate that Nadine's structure is broad but is
gradually becoming better organized, and the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt. Winds to tropical
storm force have been measured along the coast as far north as
Cancun.

The scatterometer data showed that Nadine formed a little farther
south than where the disturbance was previously estimated, but the
initial motion is still westward (270 degrees) at 8 kt. Nadine
should begin moving faster toward the west through the day while
being steered by a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. There
is good agreement among the track models, and the NHC track
forecast lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. On this
track, Nadine's center should make landfall along the Belize coast
sometime late morning or midday and then continue westward across
northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into
tonight.

Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine
reaches the coast due to low atmospheric wind shear and ocean
temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius. Weakening is forecast
after Nadine moves inland, and the storm should fall below tropical
storm strength later this afternoon. Nadine is likely to dissipate
over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday.


Key Messages:

1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track
of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern
Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the
warning area through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 17.4N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 17.2N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0600Z 17.0N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190842
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.1W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.1W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 86.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.2N 88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 87.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190841
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 87.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward to Cancun.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 87.1 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through today
and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Nadine is
forecast to make landfall along the coast of Belize late this
morning or around midday, and then continue across northern
Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine
makes landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon once
Nadine is inland, and the system is likely to dissipate over
southeastern Mexico by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
north of the center. A WeatherFlow station in Cancun, Mexico,
recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust
to 51 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with
Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern
Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated
areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late
Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
through this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190537
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORMS EAST OF BELIZE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Belize City northward to the border with Mexico.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Tulum southward to the border with Belize, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the disturbance
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has become a tropical storm.
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
centered near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.4 West. Nadine is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
should continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Nadine is
expected to move inland along the coast of Belize later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional slight strengthening is possible before Nadine makes
landfall later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
north of the center. A WeatherFlow station at Xel-Ha Park near
Tulum, Mexico, recently measured a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected
across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and the southern states
of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of
amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190239
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The satellite presentation of the disturbance has improved this
evening. Curved bands of deep convection have developed closer to
the estimated center position, although it is unclear from recent
passive microwave imagery whether a well-defined surface center
exists yet. The strongest winds are occurring within the convective
bands to the north of the center, where NOAA buoy 42056 has reported
sustained winds of 25-30 kt and gusts to tropical storm force. Based
on these observations and available satellite data, the system will
remain a 30-kt potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Data
from an ASCAT-C overpass will arrive within the next couple of
hours, which should provide some clarity about the current intensity
of the system and whether it has a well-defined center.

The disturbance appears to be moving westward at about 7 kt to the
south of a high pressure ridge over the eastern United States. The
latest track guidance agrees that the system should continue on a
westward heading through Saturday night and cross the coast of
Belize between 12-24 h from now. The latest NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous prediction and remains close to the
multi-model consensus aids.

Despite limited time remaining over water, warm SSTs and relatively
low shear in a moist environment should allow the system to
consolidate and strengthen into a tropical storm before it moves
ashore. The strongest winds are forecast to occur within the
northern semicircle, and a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect
from Belize City northward to Tulum, Mexico. Weakening is expected
once the system moves inland, and it is forecast to dissipate over
southern Mexico by early Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen is expected to bring impacts
from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this weekend. Localized
areas of flash flooding are possible as the system moves westward
through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the
Tropical Storm Watch area by early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 17.6N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/1200Z 17.5N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING
THE COAST OF BELIZE ON SATURDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 86.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 17.6 North, longitude 86.1 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the system
is expected to move inland along the coast of Belize on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is anticipated, and the disturbance is
forecast to become a tropical storm before making landfall tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across
northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and the southern states of
Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of
amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190236
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 86.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 86.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 85.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 87.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 86.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182345
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 85.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.5 North, longitude 85.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west is
expected tonight and Saturday while the system approaches the coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is forecast
to become a tropical storm before making landfall tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
NOAA buoy 42056 in the Yucatan Basin recently reported a sustained
wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a gust of 38 mph (61 km/h).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across
northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern states of Mexico
from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts
exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on Saturday.

SURF: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow
near and to the north of where the center moves inland.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 182044 CCA
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER
1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2024

CORRECTED FORECAST STATUS AT 12 AND 24 HOURS

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 85.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 85.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 85.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 182037
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The disturbance currently located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea
has continued to increase in organization today, with persistent
showers and thunderstorms occurring around a broad low-level
circulation. Buoys and satellite-derived surface wind measurements
indicate that the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone.
However, it is becoming more likely that the system could become a
tropical cyclone in the next day or so before it reaches the coast
of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Therefore, the disturbance is being designated as Potential
Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt, and
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of Belize and
the Yucatan Peninsula.

The center location remains uncertain due to the broad size of the
circulation, and the initial estimate of the current motion is
300/6 kt. Steered by mid-level easterly flow, the system is
expected to turn westward tonight and reach the coast of Central
America on Saturday. Thereafter, it is expected to move inland
before dissipating on Sunday. The NHC forecast is close to the
simple and corrected consensus models.

Conditions are generally favorable for modest intensification, with
light vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures.
However, the disturbance has less than one day before it moves
inland. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the
official forecast indicates that the disturbance will reach low-end
tropical storm status prior to landfall and then weaken before
dissipating on Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. An area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and
high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next day or two. Localized areas of flash flooding are
possible along the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as it
treks westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and
northern Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the
Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight through Saturday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 17.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 182036
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 85.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 85.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 85.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 85.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Belize City northward to the border with Mexico.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the
border with Belize northward to Tulum.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City to Tulum

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.5 North, longitude 85.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and is expected to turn
westward tonight before reaching land tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast, and it could become a tropical
cyclone before making landfall tomorrow.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across
northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states
from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts
exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Saturday.

SURF: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi