Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SARA-24
in Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Mexico, Belize

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 180831
TCDAT4

Remnants Of Sara Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Sara no
longer has a well organized circulation, and therefore has
degenerated into a trough of low pressure. The trough is beginning
to emerge back over water in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While
strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit tropical
development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with
an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along
the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.

This is the last NHC advisory on Sara. For more information on the
ongoing rainfall threat in southern Mexico/Central America and the
expected heavy rainfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, see products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 19.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 180830
TCMAT4

REMNANTS OF SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 91.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 91.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON SARA

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 180830
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Sara Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

...SARA DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 91.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the remnants of Sara were located near
latitude 19.0 North, longitude 91.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as
40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La
Esperanza.

Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, the remnants of
Sara are expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain
with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Sara.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 180233
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Satellite data and radar images from Sabancuy, Mexico, show a small
area of convection persists near and to the west of the estimated
low-level center of Sara tonight. Surface observations are sparse in
the region, but the circulation is likely still closed given the
satellite presentation of the system. Based on available surface
wind data, the initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt.

Sara is still moving west-northwestward (300/11 kt) and should
maintain this heading overnight. Convection associated with Sara is
expected to collapse overnight with continued land interaction. Sara
should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low soon and open into
a trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on
Monday. While strong upper-level winds over the western Gulf are
expected to inhibit tropical development, the remnant vorticity and
moisture could interact with an approaching frontal system and
contribute to heavy rainfall along the northern Gulf coast early
this week. For more information, see products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center. In addition, the threat of heavy rainfall,
life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides continues for
portions of Central America and southern Mexico.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua,
and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will
continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down
across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding
impacts will continue.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 18.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 19.3N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 180232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sara Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 90.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was
located inland near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 90.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this general motion should continue overnight. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the
Yucatan Peninsula through Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Sara is forecast to
become a remnant low or open into a trough of low pressure by Monday
morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as
40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La
Esperanza.

Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm
Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with
localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 180231
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC MON NOV 18 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 90.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 90.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 90.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.3N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 90.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 172034
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 89.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 89.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 89.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.9N 91.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 89.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 172034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sara Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...SARA STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 89.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h)
and a turn northwestward is expected by tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan
Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough either tonight or
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is expected, and Sara is expected to become a
remnant low or open up into a trough over the southern portion of
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as
40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La
Esperanza.

Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical
Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches
of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 172035
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Since making landfall, Sara appears to be gradually weakening as it
straddles the area between Mexico and Guatemala this afternoon.
Convective activity has remained somewhat intact near the center,
though the low-level cloud motions from the GOES-16 1 minute
mesoscale sector suggest the circulation definition is already
becoming more diffuse. The initial intensity remains 30 kt this
advisory after the system was downgraded to a depression earlier at
1800 UTC.

As expected Sara has sped up a bit today, with its initial motion
now estimated at 300/10 kt. A turn more northwestward is expected
tonight before the depression opens up into a trough at some point
tonight or tomorrow, in good agreement with the bulk of the
forecast aids. As previously discussed, the track aids do extend
further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of
Mexico, mainly because they track the remnant vorticity of the
system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone.
However, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara is
anticipated to contribute to enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf
coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where the
Weather Prediction Center currently has a slight risk for excessive
rainfall that day.

Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from
the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of
rain at some locations. Heavy rainfall is continuing over portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy
rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland.

2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down
across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding
impacts will continue.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 17.8N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/0600Z 18.9N 91.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 171735
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...SARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The governments of Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico have discontinued
all Tropical Storm Warnings for their coastal regions.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara
was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 89.0 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
northwestward with some increase in forward speed is expected
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move
further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up
into a trough by tonight or tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to continue as the depression
moves further inland, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low
before it opens up into a trough over the southern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as
40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La
Esperanza.

Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical
Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches
of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 171610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.11.2024

TROPICAL STORM SARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.11.2024 17.0N 87.9W WEAK
00UTC 18.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.3N 114.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.11.2024 10.3N 114.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.11.2024 10.4N 114.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.11.2024 10.8N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.11.2024 11.4N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.11.2024 11.9N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 38.9N 75.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.11.2024 40.0N 73.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.11.2024 41.1N 72.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.11.2024 40.6N 72.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.11.2024 40.1N 66.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.11.2024 42.7N 60.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.11.2024 45.3N 56.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.11.2024 46.4N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171610


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 171610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.11.2024

TROPICAL STORM SARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.11.2024 0 17.0N 87.9W 1005 28
0000UTC 18.11.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.3N 114.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.11.2024 48 10.3N 114.4W 1007 24
0000UTC 20.11.2024 60 10.4N 114.3W 1007 28
1200UTC 20.11.2024 72 10.8N 114.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 21.11.2024 84 11.4N 115.6W 1009 22
1200UTC 21.11.2024 96 11.9N 117.0W 1010 22
0000UTC 22.11.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 38.9N 75.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.11.2024 96 40.0N 73.4W 989 40
0000UTC 22.11.2024 108 41.1N 72.8W 983 39
1200UTC 22.11.2024 120 40.6N 72.2W 984 38
0000UTC 23.11.2024 132 40.1N 66.1W 986 40
1200UTC 23.11.2024 144 42.7N 60.5W 982 37
0000UTC 24.11.2024 156 45.3N 56.3W 980 39
1200UTC 24.11.2024 168 46.4N 52.5W 983 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171610


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 171530
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 88.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 88.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 87.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 91.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 88.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 171445
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Sara made landfall this morning at around 1400 UTC along the coast
of Belize, near Dangriga. Before landfall, Sara made a bit of a
convective resurgence near the center, with bursting deep convection
and some GLM lightning flashes occuring. Radar out of Belize City
also showed a modest attempt at banding on the southern side of the
tropical storm. With that said, the surface observations around the
circulation of Sara are unimpressive, with the highest sustained
wind at Calabash Caye near this convection of only 27 kt. A blend of
subjective and objective satellite estimates supported an intensity
of 35 kt at landfall and that remains the value for this advisory.

The tropical storm has been moving west-northwestward up until
landfall, estimated at 290/4 kt. The mid-level ridging that is now
steering the cyclone is pivoting more east, and this should result
in Sara turning more northwestward or north-northwestward as it
moves across the Yucatan, eventually emerging into the Gulf of
Mexico in about 24 hours. However, the system is expected to weaken
over land, ultimately degenerating into a trough of low pressure
before it moves back over water in the Gulf of Mexico. I will note
that track aids extend further north than the current NHC forecast
track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because these aids are
tracking the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no
longer be a tropical cyclone. As discussed yesterday, the moisture
plume associated with the remnants of Sara could aid in enhanced
rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle on Tuesday, where WPC currently has a slight risk for
excessive rainfall.

Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from
the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of
rain at some locations. These heavy rains are now spreading westward
across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula this
morning.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy
rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland.

2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara is winding down
across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding
impacts will continue.

3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
during the next several hours along portions of the Caribbean coast
of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of
Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 17.1N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 19.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 171444
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...SARA NOW JUST INLAND OVER BELIZE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 88.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay
Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 88.4 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
northwestward or north-northwestward with some increase in forward
speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center
of Sara will move further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today
before it opens up into a trough by tonight or tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast as the storm moves further inland, and Sara is
expected to become a remnant low before it opens up into a trough
over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. Recently, a surface station at Calabash Caye
offshore of the Belize mainland reported a sustained wind of 31 mph
(50 km/h) with a gust up to 41 mph (67 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as
40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La
Esperanza.

Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm
Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with
localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area in portions of Guatemala, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the
center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 171440
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 88.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 88.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 87.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 91.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 88.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 171140
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
600 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...SARA NEARING LANDFALL ALONG THE BELIZE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINS
MOVING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 87.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 87.9 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will make
landfall in Belize later this morning or around midday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only small fluctuations in strength are anticipated until landfall.
Weakening is forecast after the storm moves inland, and dissipation
is expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula
tonight or on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize,
and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours.

STORM SURGE:
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 170831
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

The center of Sara is nearing the coast of Belize. Satellite and
radar images indicate that the storm's convective pattern remains
ragged with patches of deep convection occurring to the north and
east of the center. The objective and subjective Dvorak estimates
range from 25 to about 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial
wind speed is held at 35 kt.

The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 4 kt. A building
ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to
move faster to the west-northwest during the next day or so. This
motion should bring the center of Sara to the Belize coast late
this morning or around midday. Although a 24-hour forecast point
is provided, most of the models show Sara opening into a trough
by then over northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. Sara
is expected to hold steady in strength until it reaches the coast,
but weakening is expected after the system moves inland.

Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data
from the country's government indicate that there has been some
reports of around 40 inches of rain. These heavy rains are now
spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan Peninsula.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
during the next several hours along portions of the northern coast
of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the
coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 16.8N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 17.3N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 170830
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 87.8W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 87.8W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 87.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 170830
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will make
landfall in Belize late this morning or around midday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall.
Weakening is forecast after the storm moves inland, and dissipation
is expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula
tonight or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize,
and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 170531
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1200 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...SARA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 87.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 87.6 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until
landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move over
Belize later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall later today,
with dissipation expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches are expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize,
and portions of Mexico today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 170233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Sara remains a poorly organized tropical storm, with the most
significant banding features in the northern semicircle well away
from the low-level center. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
flight-level and dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure
has risen to 1001 mb and the winds have decreased. The initial wind
speed is set to 35 kt, which are mostly occurring in the rain bands
well away from the center.

Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is moving slowly to the
west-northwest. Sara should slightly accelerate in that direction
as mid-level ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico through
tomorrow. The storm is expected to make landfall on Sunday on the
coast of Belize, and very little change was made to the NHC forecast
with guidance consistent from the last cycle. Little change in
intensity is expected before landfall due to the disorganized nature
of Sara, and the new intensity forecast is slightly lower than the
last one. The weakened cyclone should dissipate over the southern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula by early Monday.

The primary hazard associated with Sara continues to be potentially
catastrophic flash flooding, with substantial rainfall continuing to
occur near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain
in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 16.5N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 16.7N 88.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.6N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 170232
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 87.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 87.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 87.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.7N 88.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.6N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 87.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 170232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT CONTINUES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 87.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 87.3 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will
move over Belize during the day on Sunday.

Air Force Reserve aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall on Sunday,
with dissipation expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches are expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
portions of Honduras through early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 162345
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
600 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT REMAINS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 87.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 87.2 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a general westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue until landfall.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will approach Belize
tonight before moving onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected before
landfall in Belize on Sunday, with weakening expected after
landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night
or Monday as its remnants move into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
portions of Honduras through early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
late tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 162042
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Sara's center has been pretty easy to find this afternoon, with
1-minute visible satellite imagery showing the low level center
beginning to move westward away from the Bay Islands of Honduras and
more into the Gulf of Honduras. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
mission flew through the center this afternoon, indicating little
change in Sara's intensity with a 1000 mb pressure, peak 850 mb
flight-level winds of 44 kt, and a dropsonde launched in the
southwestern side of the circulation also indicating a surface wind
gust of 37 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this
advisory, though this could be a little generous based on the
aircraft observations.

The tropical storm now appears to be moving a bit faster to the
west, with the motion estimated at 280/4 kt. Mid-level ridging is
beginning to develop to the northeast of Sara and should help
continue to move the system westward to west-northwestward until the
tropical storm makes landfall in Belize at some point tomorrow
morning. The NHC track forecast this cycle has been shifted a bit
southward early on, partially related to initial position updates,
but still lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.

Intensity-wise, Sara's circulation has been significantly disrupted
despite remaining just offshore. The broader circulation of the
tropical storm has been interacting with the mountainous terrain of
northern Honduras, and I suspect that some of the drying downslope
flow off this higher terrain is playing some role in why Sara is
struggling to produce much deep convection near its center
currently. In fact most of the remaining convection is organized in
fragmented bands well to the north of the center. Despite the
relatively favorable environmental conditions, the current structure
of Sara argues against much intensification before it moves inland
over Belize in about 18 h, and the latest forecast shows little
change in strength before landfall. After moving inland, weakening
should commence and the global and hurricane-regional model guidance
continue to indicate Sara will open up into a trough as it emerges
into the Gulf of Mexico. However its remnant moisture will continue
to propagate northward and likely act as a focal point for enhanced
precipitation ahead of the next frontal boundary along the northern
Gulf coast by the middle of this week.

As stressed over the past couple of days, the primary hazard
associated with Sara remains catastrophic flash flooding, with
substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and
in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 16.4N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 162041
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 87.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 87.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.5N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 87.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 162041
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SLIDING TOWARDS BELIZE...
...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 87.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 87.0 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a general westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue until
landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will approach
Belize tonight before moving onshore over Belize during the day on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected before landfall
in Belize on Sunday, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara
is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as
its remnants move into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde
observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
portions of Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 161752
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1200 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA NOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 86.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
16.3 North, longitude 86.8 West. Sara is moving toward the west near
4 mph (6 km/h) and a somewhat faster motion west-northwestward is
expected to begin this afternoon which should continue into Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move into the Gulf of
Honduras this afternoon before approaching Belize tonight. Sara
should move onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight
and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after
landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night
or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft
dropsonde observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 161442
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Satellite imagery depicts that the center of Sara is located near
the Bay Islands of Honduras. The overall convective structure is
fairly disorganized, with a broken curved band on the northwest
side, and less convection near the center of circulation. Satellite
intensity estimates have decreased this advisory, although the
initial intensity is held steady at 40 kt, based on earlier
scatterometer data showing 35-40 knots over the western semicircle.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to
investigate the system, which should help better determine the
structure and intensity.

The storm appears to have started to drift west-northwestward with
an estimated motion of 290/02 kt. A mid-level ridge should
strengthen to the northeast of Sara later today, which is forecast
to cause the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest
through Sunday, with a slight increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the system should make landfall in Belize just
beyond the 24 h forecast point. After landfall, Sara or its
remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern
portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC forecast track is
similar to the previous and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The current intensity forecast is for the system to hold steady
through landfall which is in good agreement with the intensity
guidance. Although, some intensity fluctuations are possible as Sara
moves over the Gulf of Honduras and approaches Belize during the
next 24 h. After landfall, the storm will weaken and models are in
good agreement that it should dissipate and open into a trough over
the Yucatan Peninsula before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the
Gulf of Mexico. Based on this model guidance, the intensity forecast
shows dissipation at 60 h, although that could occur sooner. The
remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to enhance
convection near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part
of next week.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.3N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.4N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.9N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1200Z 19.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 161441
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 86.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 86.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 86.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.9N 88.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 86.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 161441
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA DRIFTING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion
is expected today, with a faster motion toward the west-northwest
and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the Bay Islands
of Honduras today before approaching Belize tonight, and then moving
onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Sunday
before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall.
Sara is expected to dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses
the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 161146
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
600 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA STILL STATIONARY...
...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is
nearly stationary. A slow west-northwestward motion is
forecast to begin late today, with a faster motion toward the
west-northwest and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near
the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely today. Slight
strengthening is possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in
Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to
dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 160839
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate that the
center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and
the Bay Islands. Compared to 24 h ago, the storm has become less
organized with a decrease in the convection near the center. The
ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt in an area of
convection to the west and northwest of the center, and based on
this the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.

The cyclone remains stationary. A mid-level ridge should
strengthen to the north of Sara later today or tonight, which is
forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the
west-northwest through Sunday. This motion should bring the center
over Belize between the 24-36 h points. After landfall, Sara or
its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the
southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The intensity guidance is in good agreement that not much change in
strength should occur before Sara makes landfall in Belize. The
intensity forecast will show a little strengthening at 24 h when
the system has the most room over water. The cyclone should weaken
after landfall, and the dynamical models are in good agreement that
it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of
Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this guidance, the
intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 60 h. The global
models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could
interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the
northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 16.1N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 160838
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 86.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 160838
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is
currently nearly stationary. A slow west-northwestward motion is
forecast to begin late today, with a faster motion toward the
west-northwest and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move
near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so
before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during
the day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely today. Slight strengthening is
possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with
weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to dissipate
Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 160532
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1200 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA NEARLY STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is
stationary with little net motion expected overnight. A slow
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin late today or
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to
move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so
before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during
the day on Sunday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change
in strength is forecast before landfall on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential for mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 160233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Sara continues to produce a large area of deep convection well
north of the center, along with a tighter convective band on the
western side of the circulation. Overall, the system hasn't
changed much in satellite representation during the past several
hours, so the initial wind speed will stay at 45 kt, consistent
with most of the estimates.

The storm has basically stopped moving tonight and is only forecast
to creep westward overnight with very light steering currents. A
mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later on
Saturday, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move
slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. Sara is likely to
move into Belize on Sunday, with the only track forecast change
being a slight slowdown, consistent with the latest guidance aids.

While Sara is forecast to move over warm waters with light shear
through Sunday, none of the regional hurricane models show any
intensification, seemingly due to the broad structure of the wind
field and perhaps land interaction. This seems reasonable given the
current structure, and the latest forecast shows little change
through landfall. Almost all of the aids show the system decaying
into a remnant low or trough near the southern portion of the
Yucatan peninsula, and that has been consistent with the guidance
and the NHC forecast for the last few cycles.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 16.2N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.3N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.6N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.0N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 160232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is
stationary with little net motion expected overnight. A slow
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later on Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move
near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is forecast before landfall on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential for mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 160231
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 86.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N 87.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 86.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 152331
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
600 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA CRAWLING WESTWARD NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the
northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or
so, as long as the system remains offshore.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 152035
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Satellite images depict a large convective band to the northwest of
the center of Sara, which has been meandering just offshore between
the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. The current
intensity is uncertain. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates were T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, though there was
a recent partial scatterometer pass around 1430 UTC that depicted
winds only around 30-33 kt in the northeastern semicircle. The
initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which may be
generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later this evening which will
help better determine the structure and intensity of the system.

Sara's forward motion has become sluggish today with a slow westward
motion, estimated at 270/2 kt. This slow motion is anticipated to
continue over the next 12 to 24 h. Afterwards, the mid-level ridge
which has been steering Sara is forecast to shift northeastward, and
Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to
west-northwestward motion later this weekend. Along the forecast
track, the center of Sara is forecast to move through the Gulf of
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The NHC forecast
track is near the previous, with a slightly slower forward motion in
the near term.

The intensity forecast is largely dependent on the land interaction
with Central America. The model trends and the track forecast keep
the system's center just offshore through landfall in Belize, thus
the latest NHC shows some slight strengthening. After landfall, the
system is forecast to weaken rapidly. The current NHC forecast shows
the system as a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche, however it is
possible the system dissipates over the Yucatan peninsula sooner
than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous and lies near the consensus aids.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 16.2N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 16.2N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.4N 86.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.2N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 18.3N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1800Z 19.9N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 152034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA SLUGGISHLY MEANDERING NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from the Nicaragua/Honduras Border westward to Punta Patuca.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal.

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from Belize City northward to Chetumal.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the
northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the
day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, as
long as the system remains offshore.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 152034
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.2N 86.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.4N 86.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.2N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.9N 92.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 86.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 151746
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1200 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to
the Belize-Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system. Additional Watches and Warnings
could be required for portions of these areas later this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Sara is
moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to
the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before
approaching Belize, and then moving onshore in Belize during the day
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of
days as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 151526
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.1N 86.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N 86.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 30SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 87.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.8N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.6N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 86.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 151451
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Since the prior advisory, Sara has become modestly better organized,
with an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showing some improved
structural organization of the outer rainbands with the center
located near the northern coast of Honduras. The latest set of
coastal surface observations suggest that Sara's center might have
reformed just offshore overnight, between the Bay Islands and the
northern mainland of Honduras. With the improvement on microwave and
geostationary satellite imagery, subjective and objective estimates
are a bit higher this morning, and the initial intensity was nudged
up to 45 kt at 12 UTC, and remains at that value for this advisory.

Sara does appear to be slowing down, but still moving generally
westward, estimated at 270/4 kt. A large mid-level ridge draped
northwestward of Sara is expected to slow the forward motion of the
tropical storm to a crawl later today. However, this ridge is then
forecast to shift northeastward on Saturday, and Sara is then
expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to west-northwestward
motion this weekend, resulting in it moving into the Gulf of
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The model guidance
this cycle is quite similar to the prior advisory, and the NHC
forecast track is largely an update of the previous one, near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

Sara's future intensity prior to moving into the Yucatan will
largely be governed by if and how far the tropical cyclone is able
to remain offshore. The latest track forecast does keep Sara
offshore just far enough that it could intensify a bit more before
moving onshore in Belize, and the latest NHC intensity is a little
higher, showing a 50 kt peak before landfall. This forecast is also
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. After moving into
the Yucatan, Sara is expected to quickly weaken, and what remains of
the system when it emerges into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of
Mexico is not very favorable for redevelopment. Ultimately, Sara is
expected to open up into a trough, though its remnant moisture will
likely be absorbed in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the next
shortwave trough ejecting out of the western United States.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands, the
Caribbean coast of Guatemala and Belize where tropical storm
warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 16.1N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 16.1N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.2N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 16.8N 88.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 17.6N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 151447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA SLOWING DOWN BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINLAND
OF HONDURAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to
the Belize-Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system. Additional Watches and Warnings
could be required for portions of these areas later this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued slow
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, but a
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close
to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before
approaching Belize, and ultimately moving onshore in Belize during
the day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days
as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 151213
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
615 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE...

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for its
coastline from Placencia northward to Belize City.

SUMMARY OF 615 AM CST...1215 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 151159
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
600 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
westward from Punta Sal to the border of Honduras and Guatemala.

The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from the border of Honduras and Guatemala westward to Punta Barrios.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The entire northern coast of Honduras
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The northern coast of Guatemala from the Honduras/Guatemala
border westward to Puerto Barrios

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings will likely be required for portions of the coast of Belize
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or
so. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move
close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then
approach the coast of Belize early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next
couple of days if the center of Sara remains over water to the
north of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras and Guatemala during the next couple of days.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and Guatemala.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 150845
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

There hasn’t been much observational data near the center of Sara
overnight and early this morning aside from the 1-minute GOES-16
data, which shows a large area of deep convection across northern
Honduras and over the Gulf of Honduras. Belize radar has provided
some information, but the center is still just beyond the range of
this radar, and there aren't any surface observations near the
center either. Finding the center has been challenging overnight.
Recent GOES-16 imagery shows increased mid-level rotation over water
about 40 miles north of the advisory position, but there is no
evidence of any low-level center re-formation at this time. The
initial position is based on a combination of the satellite imagery
and continuity from the previous NHC forecast. The initial
intensity estimate remains unchanged from the previous advisory at
40 kt.

Sara is estimated to be moving westward or 280/8 kt. A mid-level
ridge positioned to the NW of Sara over the Gulf of Mexico should
cause Sara to slow down today. The mid-level ridge is forecast to
move slowly eastward toward Florida late in the weekend, allowing
for Sara to turn west-northwestward by late Saturday across the
Gulf of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize early
Sunday. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the
track, and the new NHC track forecast is mostly an update of the
previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids.

While environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for some
strengthening, Sara's relatively broad structure and proximity to
land are likely to prevent significant intensification during the
next 24 hours. Slight strengthening is then forecast while the
system is farther offshore before it approaches Belize. The bulk
of the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and
the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope. After Sara moves inland over Belize on Sunday, it should
quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC
forecast calls for dissipation beyond 72 hours, as in the previous
forecast. While most of the global models still indicate that Sara
is unlikely to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, some
leftover low-level vorticity from Sara's remnants should merge with
an elongated trough or front over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle
of next week. Given the strong wind shear and cooler waters, no
tropical redevelopment is expected over the Gulf of Mexico.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of
Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.0N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.2N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.0N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 150844
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 85.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 85.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 84.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 86.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.9N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 85.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 150844
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...

...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Watches or
Warnings will likely be required for portions of the coast of Belize
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 85.1 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or
so. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move
close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then
approach the coast of Belize early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days
when the center of Sara moves over water to the north of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 150540
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
100 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD JUST INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 84.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 84.8 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a
slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A
slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to
the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach
the coast of Belize on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days
if the center of Sara is able to emerge offshore of the northern
coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 150255
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Radar data from Belize shows heavy rainfall from Sara continues to
spread over portions of Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and
Honduras tonight. There has been some increase in deep convection
closer to the center of the storm this evening. A recent Air Force
Hurricane Hunter flight leg over the northern semicircle found
925-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which supports an initial
intensity of 40 kt. The flight-level wind data also indicated that
the center of Sara is likely just inland or very near the
northeastern coast of Honduras, and the center was somewhat
elongated west to east.

Sara is moving westward (270/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge
centered over the Gulf of Mexico. A slower westward motion is
expected over the next couple of days, with the center of Sara
forecast to move along or very near the coast of northern Honduras.
As the ridge slides eastward later this weekend, Sarah should turn
toward the west-northwest by late Saturday and move across the Gulf
of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize on Sunday. The
updated NHC track prediction is nudged slightly south in the short
term, but generally lies between the latest simple and corrected
consensus aids (TVCA/HCCA) with little overall change from the
previous forecast.

While the environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for
some intensification, Sara's relatively broad structure and
proximity to land are likely to inhibit significant strengthening.
Given the slight southward track adjustment, little intensity change
is expected in the short term while the storm continues to interact
with land along the northeastern coast of Honduras. Some further
strengthening is forecast thereafter once Sara turns
west-northwestward and moves over water. The updated NHC forecast
shows a similar peak intensity as the previous prediction, in best
agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Once again, a more
northern track than forecast could result in additional
strengthening. The storm is forecast to move inland over Belize on
Sunday and quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.
This forecast shows dissipation by day 4, as the global models agree
that the low-level circulation of Sara is unlikely to survive its
trek across the Yucatan Peninsula.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over
northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala,
western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy
rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.8N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 15/1200Z 15.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 16/0000Z 16.0N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 16/1200Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.3N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 16.6N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 150252
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SARA JUST INLAND ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 84.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the northeastern coast of Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a
slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A
slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern
coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of
Belize on Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some further strengthening is possible during the next
couple of days if the center of Sara remains offshore of the
northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 150252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 86.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N 86.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.3N 87.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 87.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.4N 89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 84.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142348
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 84.0 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a
slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A
slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern
coast of Honduras during the next couple of days and approach the
coast of Belize on Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the
center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 998
mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142057 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Corrected country name in the intensity forecast section

...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at
a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the
northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and
approach the coast of Belize on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains
offshore of the northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 142044
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Convective banding associated with the cyclone continued to improve
especially over the western semicircle of the system after the
release of the 1500 UTC advisory. A couple of Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that have flew through the system early
this afternoon reported dropsonde data that supported a minimum
pressure of 998 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 42 kt.
These data supported the upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm
Sara on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The latest Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB also support
35 kt, therefore the initial intensity for this advisory is at that
value.

The forward speed of Sara is beginning to decrease as expected.
The cyclone is now moving westward or 270 degrees at 9 kt. Sara
should continue to move westward during the next couple of days to
the south of a strong mid-level ridge, however a continued
deceleration of Sara's forward speed is expected. By Sunday, the
center of the ridge is forecast to move eastward over Florida which
should cause Sara to turn west-northwestward when it approaches
Belize and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of
the track guidance has nudged northward this cycle, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track continues to
be along or just north of the coast of northern Honduras and it is
in good agreement with the latest consensus aids.

Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening
during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is
the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to
land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the
northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested
by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some
strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little
change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan
peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could
result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most
of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global
models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it
moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not
likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the
new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5.



KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over portions
of northern Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala,
western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy
rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 142044
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 83.5W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 83.5W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 83.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 83.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142044
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at
a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the
northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and
approach the coast of Belize on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains
offshore of the northern coast of Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141745
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 82.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue through
today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The
system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras
late Friday and through the weekend.

Data from the Air Force Reserve aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, if the system remains over
water.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km)
from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10
to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area
expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to
widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic
flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra
La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Storm Sara is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 141613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.11.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 82.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.11.2024 15.7N 82.5W WEAK
00UTC 15.11.2024 16.3N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.11.2024 16.4N 85.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2024 16.1N 85.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2024 15.9N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2024 16.6N 86.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2024 16.6N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2024 17.2N 88.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.9N 117.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2024 11.9N 117.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.11.2024 11.5N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2024 11.1N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2024 11.0N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2024 10.9N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2024 11.1N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2024 11.0N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2024 10.6N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2024 10.3N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2024 9.5N 121.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 34.3N 75.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.11.2024 34.3N 75.0W WEAK
00UTC 16.11.2024 32.3N 71.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2024 31.0N 66.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2024 31.7N 61.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2024 38.3N 58.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2024 39.6N 57.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.11.2024 42.4N 57.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.11.2024 43.8N 55.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2024 47.4N 55.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.11.2024 46.4N 60.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 8.2N 135.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.11.2024 8.1N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2024 8.2N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2024 8.3N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2024 8.6N 145.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2024 8.9N 148.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141613


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.11.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 82.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.11.2024 0 15.7N 82.5W 1004 27
0000UTC 15.11.2024 12 16.3N 83.9W 1003 25
1200UTC 15.11.2024 24 16.4N 85.8W 1003 34
0000UTC 16.11.2024 36 16.1N 85.6W 1003 31
1200UTC 16.11.2024 48 15.9N 86.8W 1004 31
0000UTC 17.11.2024 60 16.6N 86.4W 1004 29
1200UTC 17.11.2024 72 16.6N 87.6W 1004 29
0000UTC 18.11.2024 84 17.2N 88.9W 1006 27
1200UTC 18.11.2024 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.9N 117.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2024 12 11.9N 117.9W 1007 20
1200UTC 15.11.2024 24 11.5N 118.9W 1007 22
0000UTC 16.11.2024 36 11.1N 119.6W 1006 23
1200UTC 16.11.2024 48 11.0N 120.0W 1007 24
0000UTC 17.11.2024 60 10.9N 120.0W 1006 26
1200UTC 17.11.2024 72 11.1N 119.8W 1007 25
0000UTC 18.11.2024 84 11.0N 119.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 18.11.2024 96 10.6N 120.0W 1008 27
0000UTC 19.11.2024 108 10.3N 120.5W 1007 25
1200UTC 19.11.2024 120 9.5N 121.5W 1008 25
0000UTC 20.11.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 34.3N 75.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2024 24 34.3N 75.0W 1001 45
0000UTC 16.11.2024 36 32.3N 71.0W 994 44
1200UTC 16.11.2024 48 31.0N 66.6W 994 42
0000UTC 17.11.2024 60 31.7N 61.2W 995 39
1200UTC 17.11.2024 72 38.3N 58.6W 991 44
0000UTC 18.11.2024 84 39.6N 57.8W 986 40
1200UTC 18.11.2024 96 42.4N 57.7W 979 39
0000UTC 19.11.2024 108 43.8N 55.6W 976 39
1200UTC 19.11.2024 120 47.4N 55.3W 980 32
0000UTC 20.11.2024 132 46.4N 60.8W 988 32
1200UTC 20.11.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 8.2N 135.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.11.2024 60 8.1N 136.8W 1006 26
1200UTC 17.11.2024 72 8.2N 139.7W 1007 28
0000UTC 18.11.2024 84 8.3N 142.9W 1007 29
1200UTC 18.11.2024 96 8.6N 145.9W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.11.2024 108 8.9N 148.7W 1007 24
1200UTC 19.11.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141613


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 141450
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Latest satellite imagery depicts that the system continues to become
better organized this morning, with improved curved banding
features, and deep convection consolidating near the low-level
center. The latest subjective intensity estimates were T/2.5 from
both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, and an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is about to enter the system which
will provide more information on current intensity and structure.

The cyclone is moving westward with an estimated motion of 265/12
kt. A strong mid-level ridge located to the north of the system will
continue steer the system westward towards Central America. The
ridge is expected to break down, and the cyclone will meander in
weak steering currents, Friday through the weekend. This expected
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions
of Central America. By early next week, the mid-level ridge should
slide eastward over Florida, which should cause the system to move
northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track
forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models, and
is nudged slightly left towards the latest model trends.

Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for some
strengthening during the next day or so while the cyclone remains
over water. There remains uncertainty in how much land interaction
there will be with Honduras during the next several days, but the
model trends have been southward showing more interaction. If the
system remains along the coast or just offshore, it will likely
maintain intensity or slightly strengthen. However, if the
depression moves a little south of the forecast track, the system
could be weaker than shown below. Given the slight leftward track
adjustment with potentially more land interaction, the latest NHC
intensity forecast is lower than the previous and is near the middle
of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is
still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico by early next week where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, the system
could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including
Florida, during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these
areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Honduras and the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.6 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the
coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near
the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become
a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10
to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area
expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to
widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic
flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra
La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 141448
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 82.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 82.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 82.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 82.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141148
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 82.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This
motion should continue through today, taking the system across the
western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and
meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening, if it remains over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140848
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been
improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which
shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt
based on the Dvorak estimates.

Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of
due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later
today. A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression
over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until
Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras,
and possibly inland. After that, the ridge is expected to break
down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak
steering currents late Friday through the weekend. This expected
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions
of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become
re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which
should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula. Very little change was made to the first 3 days
of the track forecast. Beyond day 3, there has been a notable
westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast is a bit
west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as
the bulk of the latest model guidance.

Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during
the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low
vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities.
However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much
land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However,
if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model
solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and
oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but
then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this
forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance
envelope beyond 36 h.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for
portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140847
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 81.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm
information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 81.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This
motion should continue through today, taking the system across the
western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and
meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening, if it remains over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning late today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140846
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 81.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140543
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
100 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 81.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm
information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.0 North, longitude 81.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion should continue for
another day or so, taking the system across the western Caribbean
Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north
coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone
Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 140412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.11.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 81.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2024 0 16.1N 81.0W 1006 26
1200UTC 14.11.2024 12 15.7N 82.0W 1003 27
0000UTC 15.11.2024 24 15.5N 83.6W 1003 25
1200UTC 15.11.2024 36 16.1N 85.2W 1003 28
0000UTC 16.11.2024 48 16.2N 85.8W 1002 26
1200UTC 16.11.2024 60 16.1N 86.3W 1003 31
0000UTC 17.11.2024 72 16.2N 85.7W 1005 27
1200UTC 17.11.2024 84 16.2N 87.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 18.11.2024 96 16.6N 87.8W 1005 27
1200UTC 18.11.2024 108 18.6N 89.4W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.11.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 25.5N 59.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2024 0 25.5N 59.7W 1005 30
1200UTC 14.11.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 8.9N 131.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.11.2024 48 8.9N 132.5W 1006 25
1200UTC 16.11.2024 60 8.6N 134.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 17.11.2024 72 8.4N 136.8W 1006 29
1200UTC 17.11.2024 84 8.3N 140.0W 1007 28
0000UTC 18.11.2024 96 8.7N 143.2W 1007 30
1200UTC 18.11.2024 108 9.0N 146.3W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.11.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 33.4N 74.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.11.2024 48 32.2N 71.7W 992 49
1200UTC 16.11.2024 60 31.1N 67.6W 995 39
0000UTC 17.11.2024 72 31.5N 62.1W 997 42
1200UTC 17.11.2024 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.7N 108.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.11.2024 84 16.7N 108.4W 1006 27
0000UTC 18.11.2024 96 16.5N 106.5W 1006 30
1200UTC 18.11.2024 108 16.4N 104.7W 1005 22
0000UTC 19.11.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.3N 118.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.11.2024 108 11.1N 118.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 19.11.2024 120 10.8N 118.8W 1007 26
1200UTC 19.11.2024 132 10.1N 119.0W 1008 25
0000UTC 20.11.2024 144 9.1N 120.7W 1007 29
1200UTC 20.11.2024 156 10.0N 121.2W 1009 26
0000UTC 21.11.2024 168 10.2N 122.8W 1008 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140412


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta Sal eastward to the border with Nicaragua and for the Bay
Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm
information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 16.1 North, longitude 80.2 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow westward motion should
continue for another day or two, taking the system across the
western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and
meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone
Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late
Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140234
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

The disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours
with deep convection persisting near and to the west of the
estimated center. Although the convection is relatively well
organized, the definition of the low-level circulation remains poor,
and for that reason, the system is not yet a tropical depression.
The initial intensity remains 25 kt and the minimum pressure is
around 1005 mb based on surface observations.

The system continues to move westward at about 8 kt on the south
side of a mid-level ridge that is centered near the Florida Straits.
This ridge should keep the disturbance on a westward track
until Friday, taking the system over or just north of eastern
Honduras. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the
models agree that cyclone will meander in weak steering currents
from late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will
cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region,
likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central
America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established
over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the
system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
various consensus models.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during
the next few days with vertical wind shear expected to be low and
mid-level humidities forecast to remain relatively high near the
system. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty
in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the
next several days. If the system remains offshore, it will likely
take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions
and at least steadily strengthen through the weekend. However, if
the system moves even a little south of the forecast track, notably
less strengthening or even weakening could occur. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous one and is near the
middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that
there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical
storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140233
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 80.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 80.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 80.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 132330
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 79.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.1 North, longitude 79.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion should continue
for another day or two, taking the system across the western
Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander
near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone
Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 132053
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane
Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs
of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in
visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the
low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the
system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or
so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions
to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the
National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories for this disturbance.

The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is
still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at
about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the
next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into
the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system
is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central
America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend.
Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and
slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of
Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of
the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with
the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land
interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and
how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus
models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance
currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the
average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations,
and future track adjustments may be required.

The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during
the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear
favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows
strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea.
However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the
intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system
remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but
if it moves over Central America weakening would occur. The NHC
forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty.

Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.2N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 132049
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane
Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs
of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in
visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the
low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the
system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or
so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions
to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the
National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories for this disturbance.

The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is
still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at
about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the
next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into
the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system
is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central
America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend.
Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and
slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of
Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of
the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with
the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land
interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and
how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus
models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance
currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the
average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations,
and future track adjustments may be required.

The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during
the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear
favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows
strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea.
However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the
intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system
remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but
if it moves over Central America weakening would occur. The NHC
forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty.

Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.2N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 132048
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 79.0W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta
Castilla eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
the Honduras/Nicaragua Border southward to Puerto Cabezas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.2 North, longitude 79.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward motion should continue during
the next few days, with a decrease in forward speed. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the
western Caribbean Sea and slow as it nears the coast of Central
America.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue
strengthening as it moves near the coast of Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone
Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 132047
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.0W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.0W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 79.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY