Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FAIDA-25 in Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe from 30 Jan 2025 00:00 UTC to 03 Feb 2025 18:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FAIDA-25

in Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

05/02 02:48 WTXS51PGTW050300

04/02 14:20 WTXS51PGTW041500

04/02 06:56 WTIO30FMEE040642

04/02 06:56 WTIO31FMEE040642

04/02 06:07 WTIO22FMEE040605

04/02 01:44 WTXS31PGTW040300

04/02 01:44 WTXS51PGTW040300

04/02 01:20 WTIO30FMEE040041

04/02 01:20 WTIO31FMEE040041

04/02 00:16 WTIO22FMEE040013

03/02 20:40 WTXS51PGTW032100

03/02 20:28 WTXS31PGTW032100

03/02 19:18 WTIO30FMEE031916

03/02 19:18 WTIO31FMEE031916

03/02 18:06 WTIO22FMEE031804

03/02 14:21 WTXS51PGTW031500

03/02 14:19 WTXS31PGTW031500

03/02 12:48 WTIO30FMEE031246

03/02 12:48 WTIO31FMEE031246

03/02 12:04 WTIO22FMEE031202

03/02 06:37 WTIO30FMEE030632

03/02 06:37 WTIO31FMEE030632

03/02 06:05 WTIO22FMEE030603

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 250205011646
2025020500 11S FAIDA 017 03 250 09 SATL 030
T000 204S 0487E 025
T012 205S 0469E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 20.4S 48.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 48.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.5S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 48.3E.
05FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 10 FEET.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1125012306 109S 803E 15
1125012312 109S 807E 15
1125012318 110S 812E 15
1125012400 110S 820E 15
1125012406 109S 817E 15
1125012412 107S 814E 15
1125012418 109S 812E 25
1125012500 109S 809E 25
1125012506 110S 810E 25
1125012512 114S 808E 25
1125012518 118S 804E 25
1125012600 121S 793E 30
1125012606 121S 787E 30
1125012612 117S 783E 30
1125012618 116S 778E 25
1125012700 115S 772E 25
1125012706 114S 770E 25
1125012712 113S 768E 25
1125012718 112S 764E 25
1125012800 111S 760E 30
1125012806 113S 760E 30
1125012812 117S 762E 35
1125012818 122S 764E 35
1125012900 127S 761E 35
1125012906 140S 754E 30
1125012912 146S 750E 30
1125012918 156S 735E 30
1125013000 160S 721E 35
1125013006 164S 705E 35
1125013012 164S 697E 35
1125013018 162S 685E 35
1125013100 161S 676E 35
1125013106 157S 665E 35
1125013112 169S 656E 35
1125013118 169S 639E 35
1125020100 170S 626E 35
1125020106 170S 618E 35
1125020112 176S 608E 35
1125020118 181S 597E 30
1125020200 184S 586E 30
1125020206 183S 567E 30
1125020212 183S 548E 35
1125020218 183S 541E 35
1125020300 182S 529E 40
1125020306 182S 523E 40
1125020312 186S 516E 40
1125020318 187S 508E 35
1125020400 184S 499E 35
1125020406 192S 505E 30
1125020412 196S 504E 30
1125020418 201S 496E 25
1125020500 204S 487E 25
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 250204140917
2025020412 11S FAIDA 016 03 155 09 SATL 040
T000 196S 0504E 035 R034 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 207S 0495E 030
T024 212S 0473E 025
T036 215S 0451E 025
T048 213S 0427E 030
T072 210S 0407E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 207S 0387E 035 R034 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 208S 0363E 035 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 50.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 50.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.7S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.2S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.5S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.3S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.0S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.7S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.8S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 50.2E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z AND 051500Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1125012306 109S 803E 15
1125012312 109S 807E 15
1125012318 110S 812E 15
1125012400 110S 820E 15
1125012406 109S 817E 15
1125012412 107S 814E 15
1125012418 109S 812E 25
1125012500 109S 809E 25
1125012506 110S 810E 25
1125012512 114S 808E 25
1125012518 118S 804E 25
1125012600 121S 793E 30
1125012606 121S 787E 30
1125012612 117S 783E 30
1125012618 116S 778E 25
1125012700 115S 772E 25
1125012706 114S 770E 25
1125012712 113S 768E 25
1125012718 112S 764E 25
1125012800 111S 760E 30
1125012806 113S 760E 30
1125012812 117S 762E 35
1125012818 122S 764E 35
1125012900 127S 761E 35
1125012906 140S 754E 30
1125012912 146S 750E 30
1125012918 156S 735E 30
1125013000 160S 721E 35
1125013006 164S 705E 35
1125013012 164S 697E 35
1125013018 162S 685E 35
1125013100 161S 676E 35
1125013106 157S 665E 35
1125013112 169S 656E 35
1125013118 169S 639E 35
1125020100 170S 626E 35
1125020106 170S 618E 35
1125020112 176S 608E 35
1125020118 181S 597E 30
1125020200 184S 586E 30
1125020206 183S 567E 30
1125020212 183S 548E 35
1125020218 183S 541E 35
1125020300 182S 529E 40
1125020306 182S 523E 40
1125020312 186S 516E 40
1125020318 187S 508E 35
1125020400 184S 499E 35
1125020406 188S 500E 35
1125020412 196S 504E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/7/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 50.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/04 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

24H: 2025/02/05 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED NEAR FAIDA'S
CENTER. THE 0507Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS VERY
ELONGATED, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 25KT, LOCALLY 30KT IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM, ACCORDING TO ALL THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE REMNANTS
OF FAIDA IN THE PROCESS OF FILLING UP SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE. HEAVY RAIN IS STILL TEMPORARILY
POSSIBLE OVER THE TOAMASINA AND ANTANANARIVO PROVINCES.

BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SCENARIO OF REFORMATION AND
INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS CLEARLY FADING.
MOREOVER, IT COULD END UP BEING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040642
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/7/20242025
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 50.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

24H: 05/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST
EFFONDREE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DE FAIDA. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0507Z,
MONTRE QUE LA CIRCULATION EST TRES ALLONGEE AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX
DE L'ORDRE DE 25KT, LOCALEMENT 30KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.

A COURTE ECHEANCE, SELON L'ENSEMBLE DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES, LES
RESTES DE FAIDA EN COURS DE COMBLEMENT DEVRAIENT ATTERRIR SUR LE
LITTORAL SUD DE LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA. DES FORTES PLUIES SONT
ENCORE TEMPORAIREMENT POSSIBLES SUR LES PROVINCES DE TOAMASINA ET
ANTANANARIVO.

AU DELA DES PROCHAINES 24H, LE SCENARIO D'UNE REFORMATION ET D'UNE
INTENSIFICATION DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EST EN NETTE BAISSE. DE
PLUS IL POURRAIT ETRE FINALEMENT ASSOCIE A UN AUTRE SYSTEME.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040605
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 04/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FAIDA) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 50.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING IN RADIUS OF 150 NM FROM THE CENTER

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT REACHING LOCALLY 30KT IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/04 AT 18 UTC:
20.1 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING

24H, VALID 2025/02/05 AT 06 UTC:
20.9 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND = 15 KT, DISSIPATING

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE
HIGHT SEAS FOR METAREA VII, ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
OF SOUTH-AFRICA (FQZA31 FAPR).=

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.7S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.8S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.8S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.4S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.9S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.8S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 49.7E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 250204013158
2025020400 11S FAIDA 015 03 290 09 SATL 060
T000 184S 0499E 040 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 186S 0490E 030
T024 187S 0477E 025
T036 188S 0461E 025
T048 188S 0448E 025
T072 194S 0427E 030
T096 199S 0392E 035 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 198S 0361E 040 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.7S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.8S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.8S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.4S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.9S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.8S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 49.7E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z. REFER TO
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH)
1125012306 109S 803E 15
1125012312 109S 807E 15
1125012318 110S 812E 15
1125012400 110S 820E 15
1125012406 109S 817E 15
1125012412 107S 814E 15
1125012418 109S 812E 25
1125012500 109S 809E 25
1125012506 110S 810E 25
1125012512 114S 808E 25
1125012518 118S 804E 25
1125012600 121S 793E 30
1125012606 121S 787E 30
1125012612 117S 783E 30
1125012618 116S 778E 25
1125012700 115S 772E 25
1125012706 114S 770E 25
1125012712 113S 768E 25
1125012718 112S 764E 25
1125012800 111S 760E 30
1125012806 113S 760E 30
1125012812 117S 762E 35
1125012818 122S 764E 35
1125012900 127S 761E 35
1125012906 140S 754E 30
1125012912 146S 750E 30
1125012918 156S 735E 30
1125013000 160S 721E 35
1125013006 164S 705E 35
1125013012 164S 697E 35
1125013018 162S 685E 35
1125013100 161S 676E 35
1125013106 157S 665E 35
1125013112 169S 656E 35
1125013118 169S 639E 35
1125020100 170S 626E 35
1125020106 170S 618E 35
1125020112 176S 608E 35
1125020118 181S 597E 30
1125020200 184S 586E 30
1125020206 183S 567E 30
1125020212 183S 548E 35
1125020218 183S 541E 35
1125020300 182S 529E 40
1125020306 182S 523E 40
1125020312 186S 516E 40
1125020318 187S 508E 40
1125020400 184S 499E 40
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/7/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 51.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 315 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/04 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 285 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/05 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2025/02/05 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2025/02/06 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 285 NW: 185

60H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 285 NW: 185

72H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 285 NW: 185

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/08 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 285 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SW: 165 NW: 155

120H: 2025/02/09 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 165

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EVEN MORE
CLEARLY DETACHED FROM CONVECTION. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST (15 TO 20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS),
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE 1852Z ASCAT-C DATA
SHOW A VERY STRETCHED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, WITH
GALE-FORCE WINDS LOCALIZED ALONG THE TOAMASINA PROVINCE. THIS ROBUST
OBJECTIVE DATA, SUPPORTED BY SUCCESSIVE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES,
LED TO THE SYSTEM BEING DOWNGRADED TO THE 35KT ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER. UNTIL THEN, AMERICAN AGENCIES HAD GREATLY OVERESTIMATED THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE 21Z, AMERICAN OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSES HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE.

A FEW DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE: FAIDA'S MOVEMENT IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. THIS IS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE LOW INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, DRIVEN BY A WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE COAST, BUT STILL INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE
FURTHER EAST. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM COULD LAND THIS AFTERNOON ON A
MORE SOUTHERLY PATH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE STRONG DISPERSION
(ALONG TRACK AND ACCROSS TRACK) OF GUIDANCE PATTERNS BEFORE THE
LANDFALL IS STILL SIGNIFICANT, WITH A TIMING DIFFERENCE OF +/- 6
HOURS. THEREAFTER, THIS DISPERSION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, FIRST
OVER MADAGASCAR AND THEN AS THE VORTEX EMERGES FROM THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRESENT TRAJECTORY FORECAST, WITH SOME GUIDANCE TENDING TO STAY A
LITTLE MORE ON LAND. THE 24 HOURS OF TRANSIT OVER MADAGASCAR COULD BE
THE DEATH KNELL FOR A SYSTEM THAT WAS FAIRLY WEAK FROM THE START.
HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT THE OPTION CHOSEN BY THE REUNION RSMC. THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RE-EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY
OFF THE COAST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED BY A NEW LANDFALL OFF
THE MOZAMBICAN COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT
THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY IS TENDING TO LOWER IN LATITUDE OVER THE
NETWORKS; THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW
TROPOSPHERE EASTERLY DIRECTING FLOW, GIVEN THE MODERATE INTENSITY OF
THE FORECAST EVENT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FAIDA REMAINS SUBJECT TO DIFFICULT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, INJECTING DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW-PRESSURE MINIMUM. IN THIS
CONTEXT, NO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDING, AS ORIGINALLY
PLANNED. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF
TOAMASINA (MADAGASCAR) AT THE 30KT DISTURBED ZONE STAGE. THE
DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS HIGH, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST. IN ITS WEAKENED STATE
WHEN IT REACHES MADAGASCAR, FAIDA COULD PERICLITERATE SLOWLY OVER A
PERIOD OF MORE THAN 24 HOURS, WHICH IS NOT THE CURRENT OPTION. IN
FACT, THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A NEW BUT HYPOTHETICAL PHASE OF
INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT RE-ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE COULD BE
REACHED BEFORE THE LANDFALL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MADAGASCAR (TOAMASINA PROVINCE)
- GALE VERY LIKELY BUT VERY LOCALIZED ALONG TOAMASINA PROVINCE ON
TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAIN THIS TUESDAY OVER TOAMASINA PROVINCE. TOTAL RAINFALL OF
100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS AND BETWEEN 300 AND 400 MM ON THE COAST.
IMPROVEMENT BY THE END OF THE DAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040041
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/7/20242025
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6 S / 51.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 315 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 240 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/02/2025 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 285 NO: 0

24H: 05/02/2025 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 05/02/2025 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 06/02/2025 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 285 NO: 185

60H: 06/02/2025 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 285 NO: 185

72H: 07/02/2025 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 285 NO: 185

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 285 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SO: 165 NO: 155

120H: 09/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 165

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES S'EST
ENCORE PLUS NETTEMENT DETACHE DE LA CONVECTION. LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT RESTANT TOUJOURS MODERE DE SECTEUR SUD-EST (15 A
20KT SELON LE CIMSS), ACCOMPAGNE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LA
FAUCHEE DE L'ASCAT-C DE 1852Z, MONTRE UNE STRUCURE DE BASSES COUCHES
TRES ETIREE ET MAL DEFINIE, AVEC DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT TRES
LOCALISES LE LONG DE LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA. CETTE DONNEE OBJECTIVE
ROBUSTE, SUPPORTEE PAR LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DVORAK SUCCESSIVES
CONDUISENT A DECLASSER LE SYSTEME AU STADE DE ZONE PERTURBEE 35KT.
LES AGENCES AMERICAINES SURESTIMAIENT JUSQUE LA TRES LARGEMENT
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. DEPUIS 21Z, LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES AMERICAINES TENDENT A AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME A MESURE DE
SON APPROCHE DES COTES DE LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA.

QUELQUES DIFFERENCES EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE PAR RAPPORT A LA
PREVISION PRECEDENTE : LE DEPLACEMENT DE FAIDA EST MOINS RAPIDE QUE
PREVU. CELA EST SANS DOUTE DU A LA FAIBLE INTENSITE DU SYSTEME,
PILOTE PAR UN FLUX DE BASSES COUCHES PLUS FAIBLE A LA COTE, MAIS
RESTANT INFLUENCE NEANMOINS PAR LA DORSALE SITUEE PLUS A L'EST. AINSI
L'ATTERRISSAGE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT S'EFFECTUER PLUTOT AU COURS DE CET
APRES-MIDI, SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD QUE LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE.
LA FORTE DISPERSION (EN ALONG TRACK ET ACCROSS TRACK) DES GUIDANCES
AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE RESTE TOUJOURS IMPORTANTE AVEC UNE DIFFERENCE DE
CHRONOLOGIE DE +/- 6HEURES. PAR LA SUITE, CETTE DISPERSION AUGMENTE
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT, SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS
PUIS LORS DE LA RESSORTIE DU VORTEX DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN
SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE INDUISANT UNE FAIBLE CONFIANCE
SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, CERTAINES GUIDANCES
PRESENTANT UNE TENDANCE A RESTER UN PEU PLUS SUR TERRE. LES 24 HEURES
DE TRANSIT SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES POURRAIENT SONNER LE GLAS POUR UN
SYSTEME PASSABLEMENT AFFAIBLI A L'ORIGINE. POUR AUTANT, CE N'EST PAS
L'OPTION RETENUE PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION. UNE PROBABLE RESSORTIE DU
SYSTEME DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI AU LARGE
DE LA PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA, SUIVI D'UN NOUVEL ATTERRISSAGE QUI
DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES A ECHEANCE DU WEEK-END
PROCHAIN EST ENVISAGE. A NOTER EGALEMENT QUE LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
SYSTEME AU FIL DES RESEAUX TEND A S'ABAISSER EN LATITUDE ; CELA
POURRAIT S'EXPLIQUER PAR L'INFLUENCE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR DE SECTEUR EST
DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE AU VU DE L'INTENSITE MODEREE DU PHENOMENE
PREVUE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FAIDA RESTE EN PROIE A DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DIFFICILES : CISAILLEMENT PROFOND MODERE A FORT DE
SECTEUR SUD-EST, INJECTANT DE L'AIR SEC AU-DESSUS DU MINIMUM
DEPRESSIONNAIRE. DANS CE CONTEXTE, IL N'EST PAS PREVU
D'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE, COMME CELA ETAIT PREVU AU
DEPART. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE POUR UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA
PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA (MADAGASCAR) AU STADE DE ZONE PERTURBEE 30KT.
LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES RESTE FORTE, D'OU UNE INCERTITUDE
IMPORTANTE SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE. ARRIVE SUR LES
TERRES MALGACHES, A UN STADE AFFAIBLI, FAIDA POURRAIT PERICLITER
LENTEMENT AU COURS D'UN PERIPLE ARRIDE DE PLUS DE 24H, CE QUI N'EST
PAS L'OPTION RETENUE POUR L'INSTANT. EN EFFET, LA PRESENTE PREVISION
SUGGERRE UNE NOUVELLE MAIS HYPOTHETIQUE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION UNE
FOIS RESSORTI DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE DE MERCREDI.
DANS CETTE OPTIQUE LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE POURRAIT ETRE
ATTEINT AVANT UN EVENTUEL ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA)
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE MAIS TRES LOCALISE LE LONG DE LA
PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA MARDI MATIN.
- FORTES PLUIES CE MARDI SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA. CUMULS DE
100-200 MM EN 24H ET ENTRE 300 ET 400 MM SUR LA COTE. AMELIORATION EN
FIN DE JOURNEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040013
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 04/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FAIDA) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 51.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CERCLE

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/04 AT 12 UTC:
18.3 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/05 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 250203201106
2025020318 11S FAIDA 014A 03 205 07 SATL SYNP 060
T000 192S 0513E 040 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 191S 0504E 035 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 191S 0492E 030
T036 189S 0477E 025
T048 187S 0461E 025
T072 198S 0435E 035 R034 120 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 206S 0405E 040 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 210S 0370E 045 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 51.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 51.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.1S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.1S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.9S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.6S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.0S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 51.1E.
03FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216
NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z, 041500Z AND 050300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. REASON FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED POSITION APPROXIMATELY 120NM
SOUTH BASED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY.
//
1125012306 109S 803E 15
1125012312 109S 807E 15
1125012318 110S 812E 15
1125012400 110S 820E 15
1125012406 109S 817E 15
1125012412 107S 814E 15
1125012418 109S 812E 25
1125012500 109S 809E 25
1125012506 110S 810E 25
1125012512 114S 808E 25
1125012518 118S 804E 25
1125012600 121S 793E 30
1125012606 121S 787E 30
1125012612 117S 783E 30
1125012618 116S 778E 25
1125012700 115S 772E 25
1125012706 114S 770E 25
1125012712 113S 768E 25
1125012718 112S 764E 25
1125012800 111S 760E 30
1125012806 113S 760E 30
1125012812 117S 762E 35
1125012818 122S 764E 35
1125012900 127S 761E 35
1125012906 140S 754E 30
1125012912 146S 750E 30
1125012918 156S 735E 30
1125013000 160S 721E 35
1125013006 164S 705E 35
1125013012 164S 697E 35
1125013018 162S 685E 35
1125013100 161S 676E 35
1125013106 157S 665E 35
1125013112 169S 656E 35
1125013118 169S 639E 35
1125020100 170S 626E 35
1125020106 170S 618E 35
1125020112 176S 608E 35
1125020118 181S 597E 30
1125020200 184S 586E 30
1125020206 183S 567E 30
1125020212 183S 548E 35
1125020218 183S 541E 35
1125020300 182S 529E 40
1125020306 182S 523E 40
1125020312 186S 516E 40
1125020318 192S 513E 40
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 51.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 51.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.1S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.1S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.9S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.6S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.0S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 51.1E.
03FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216
NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z, 041500Z AND 050300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. REASON FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED POSITION APPROXIMATELY 120NM
SOUTH BASED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031916
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 51.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 195 NW: 165

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/04 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 215 NW: 120

24H: 2025/02/04 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2025/02/05 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2025/02/05 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

60H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 215 NW: 150

72H: 2025/02/06 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 155

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 140

120H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS COMPLETELY SEPARATED
FROM THE CONVECTION, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
STRESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING DRY AIR TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.
THE SSMIS-F17 MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1438Z CONFIRMS THIS, PRESENTING A
FULLY EXPOSED VORTEX ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER,
ALREADY POSITIONED ON THE COAST OF TOLIARA PROVINCE, AT A DISTANCE OF
AROUND 100MN. THESE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, COUPLED WITH ASCAT-C DATA
FROM 0622Z SHOWING ONLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, POINT TO A WEAKENED SYSTEM PREY TO PERSISTENT ADVERSE
SHEAR FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, FAIDA IS
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR 30KT, WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS AT THE TIME OF THE ANALYSIS
TIME. IN ADDITION, THE SSMIS-F17 PASS ENABLED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO
BE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN ESTIMATED DURING THE DAY. THE BESTRACK
HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

FAIDA SEEMS TO HAVE PLUNGED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OF THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE BELT TO THE SOUTH IS
SET TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH A WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONAL FLOW, CAUSING THE METEOR TO RISE. THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER LANDING THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT IN THE SAME AREA AND BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
FACT, THERE IS STILL A STRONG DISPERSION OF GUIDANCE BEFORE THE
LANDFALL, AND A CHRONOLOGICAL DIFFERENCE OF +/- 3 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
THIS DISPERSION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, FIRST OVER MADAGASCAR AND
THEN AS THE VORTEX EMERGES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENT TRACK
FORECAST, WITH SOME GUIDANCE TENDING TO STAY A LITTLE MORE ON LAND.
THE 24 HOURS OF TRANSIT OVER MADAGASCAR COULD BE THE DEATH KNELL FOR
A SYSTEM THAT WAS FAIRLY WEAK FROM THE START. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT
THE OPTION CHOSEN BY THE REUNION RSMC. A PROBABLE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CANAL OFF THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA, FOLLOWED BY
A NEW LANDFALL WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND IS FORESEEN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FAIDA REMAINS SUBJECT TO DIFFICULT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, INJECTING DRY AIR ABOVE THE DEPRESSION MINIMUM. IN THIS
CONTEXT, REGULAR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS DIFFICULT UNTIL LANDFALL, AS
FORECAST AT THE OUTSET. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GALE-FORCE WINDS
WILL BE TEMPORARILY LOCALIZED BY ACCELERATION ON THE COAST, AS
MODELED BY SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. NEVERTHELESS, THE PRESENT
FORECAST ASSUMES A LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA
(MADAGASCAR) AT THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS HIGH, EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM, WHICH MEANS THAT
THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. WHEN IT ARRIVES IN MADAGASCAR, IN A WEAKENED STATE, IT
COULD PERICLIZE SLOWLY OVER A PERIOD OF MORE THAN 24 HOURS, WHICH IS
NOT THE OPTION ADOPTED FOR THE TIME BEING. IN FACT, THE PRESENT
FORECAST SUGGESTS A NEW PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT RE-ENTERS
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE SHOULD BE REACHED BEFORE THE LANDFALL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR :
- GALE FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY OVER TOAMASINA PROVINCE DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST OF
TOAMASINA PROVINCE, CLOSE TO AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- HEAVY RAINFALLS ON THE NORTH-WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA
AND MAHAJANGA PROVINCES) ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, IN CONNECTION WITH
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MONSOON FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- WAVES CLOSE TO 4M NEAR THE LANDFALL ZONE BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031916
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/7/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 51.4 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 195 NO: 165

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/02/2025 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 215 NO: 120

24H: 04/02/2025 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 05/02/2025 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 05/02/2025 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

60H: 06/02/2025 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 215 NO: 150

72H: 06/02/2025 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 155

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2025 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 140

120H: 08/02/2025 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES S'EST
COMPLETEMENT DESOLIDARISE DE LA CONVECTION, SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FORTE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR SUD-EST, APPORTANT DE
L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS-F17 DE
1438Z CONFIRME CELA EN PRESENTANT UN VORTEX TOTALEMENT EXPOSE EN
MARGE EST DU CLUSTER CONVECTIF, DEJA POSITIONNE SUR LA COTE DE LA
PROVINCE DE TOLIARA, A UNE DISTANCE APPROXIMATIVE DE 100MN. CES
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES COUPLA ES AUX DONNEES DE L'ASCAT-C DE
0622Z PRESENTANT UNIQUEMENT DES VENTS DE FORCE GRAND FRAIS DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST, PLAIDENT POUR UN SYSTEME AFFAIBLI EN PROIE A UN
CISAILLEMENT DELETERE PERSISTANT POUR SON DEVELOPPEMENT. AUSSI, SUR
LA BASE DE CETTE ANALYSE, FAIDA EST RETROGRADEE AU STADE DE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE POUR 30KT, CE QUI EST EGALEMENT SUPPORTEE PAR
L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE D'INTENSITE DE DVORAK AU MOMENT DU RESEAU. PAR
AILLEURS, LA PASSE SSMIS-F17 A PERMIS DE RESITUER LE CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES PLUS AU SUD DE CE QUI ETAIT ESTIME AU COURS DE LA JOURNA E.
LA TRAJECTOIRE BESTRACK A DONC ETE REACTUALISEE EN CONSEQUENCE.

FAIDA A SEMBLE T-IL PLONGE AU SECTEUR SUD-SUD-EST AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES SOUS L'EFFET DU FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD-EST IMPULSE
PAR LA DORSALE SITUE A L'EST. LA CEINTURE DE HAUTE PRESSION SITUEE AU
SUD DEVRAIT SE CONSOLIDER A COURT TERME AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DIRIGA
VERS L'OUEST A OUEST-NORD-OUEST, FAISANT REMONTER LE METEORE. LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE PREVOIT UN ATTERRISSAGE LEGEREMENT
PLUS TARDIF QUE LA PRECEDENTE PREVISION, MAIS DANS LA MEME ZONE ET
POUR MARDI MATIN. EN EFFET, IL EXISTE TOUJOURS UNE FORTE DISPERSION
DES GUIDANCES AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE ET UNE DIFFERENCE DE CHRONOLOGIE
DE +/- 3HEURES. PAR LA SUITE, CETTE DISPERSION AUGMENTE
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT, SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS
PUIS LORS DE LA RESSORTIE DU VORTEX DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN
SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE INDUISANT UNE FAIBLE CONFIANCE
SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, CERTAINES GUIDANCES
PRESENTANT UNE TENDANCE A RESTER UN PEU PLUS SUR TERRE. LES 24 HEURES
DE TRANSIT SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES POURRAIENT SONNER LE GLAS POUR UN
SYSTEME PASSABLEMENT AFFAIBLI A L'ORIGINE. POUR AUTANT, CE N'EST PAS
L'OPTION RETENUE PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION. UNE PROBABLE RESSORTIE DU
SYSTEME DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE DE
MAHAJANGA, SUIVI D'UN NOUVEL ATTERRISSAGE QUI DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU SUR
LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES A ECHEANCE DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN EST ENVISAGE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FAIDA RESTE EN PROIE A DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DIFFICILES : CISAILLEMENT PROFOND MODERE A FORT DE
SECTEUR SUD-EST, INJECTANT DE L'AIR SEC AU-DESSUS DU MINIMUM
DEPRESSIONNAIRE. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE
RESTE DIFFICILE JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE, COMME CELA ETAIT PREVU AU
DEPART. TOUTEFOIS, IL EST POSSIBLE QUE TEMPORAIREMENT DES VENTS DE
FORCE COUP DE VENT SOIENT LOCALISES PAR ACCELERATION A LA COTE COMME
LE MODELISENT CERTAINS MODELES HAUTE RESOLUTION. NEANMOINS LA
PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE POUR UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA PROVINCE DE
TOAMASINA (MADAGASCAR) AU STADE DE DEPRESSION TROPICAL. LA DISPERSION
ENTRE MODELES RESTE FORTE MEME A COURTE ECHEANCE, D'OU UNE
INCERTITUDE IMPORTANTE SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE. ARRIVE
SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES, A UN STADE AFFAIBLI, CELUI-CI POURRAIT
PERICLITER LENTEMENT AU COURS D'UN PERIPLE ARRIDE DE PLUS DE 24H, CE
QUI N'EST PAS L'OPTION RETENUE POUR L'INSTANT. EN EFFET, LA PRESENTE
PREVISION SUGGERRE UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION UNE FOIS
RESSORTI DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE DE MERCREDI. DANS
CETTE OPTIQUE LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE DEVRAIT ETRE ATTEINT
AVANT LE NOUVEL ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA EN COURS DE
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI ET JUSQU'EN MATINEE DE MARDI.
- FORTES PLUIES ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI PRES DU LITTORAL DE LA
PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA A PROXIMITE ET UN PEU AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'IMPACT. CUMULS AUTOUR DE 100-150 MM EN 24H.
- FORTES PLUIES SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES
D'ANTSIRANANA ET MAHAJANGA) MARDI ET MERCREDI, EN LIEN AVEC LA MISE
EN PLACE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON SUR LE NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE.
CUMULS DE 100-200 MM EN 24H.
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE ENTRE LUNDI
SOIR ET MARDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 031804
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 03/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (FAIDA) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 51.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/04 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/04 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 47.4 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 250203140813
2025020312 11S FAIDA 013 03 270 15 SATL 060
T000 181S 0505E 040 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 180S 0496E 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 179S 0487E 030
T036 176S 0473E 025
T048 176S 0455E 025
T072 187S 0430E 030
T096 193S 0400E 040 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 193S 0363E 045 R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.0S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.6S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.6S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.7S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.3S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.3S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 50.3E.
03FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1125012306 109S 803E 15
1125012312 109S 807E 15
1125012318 110S 812E 15
1125012400 110S 820E 15
1125012406 109S 817E 15
1125012412 107S 814E 15
1125012418 109S 812E 25
1125012500 109S 809E 25
1125012506 110S 810E 25
1125012512 114S 808E 25
1125012518 118S 804E 25
1125012600 121S 793E 30
1125012606 121S 787E 30
1125012612 117S 783E 30
1125012618 116S 778E 25
1125012700 115S 772E 25
1125012706 114S 770E 25
1125012712 113S 768E 25
1125012718 112S 764E 25
1125012800 111S 760E 30
1125012806 113S 760E 30
1125012812 117S 762E 35
1125012818 122S 764E 35
1125012900 127S 761E 35
1125012906 140S 754E 30
1125012912 146S 750E 30
1125012918 156S 735E 30
1125013000 160S 721E 35
1125013006 164S 705E 35
1125013012 164S 697E 35
1125013018 162S 685E 35
1125013100 161S 676E 35
1125013106 157S 665E 35
1125013112 169S 656E 35
1125013118 169S 639E 35
1125020100 170S 626E 35
1125020106 170S 618E 35
1125020112 176S 608E 35
1125020118 181S 597E 30
1125020200 184S 586E 30
1125020206 183S 567E 30
1125020212 183S 548E 35
1125020218 183S 541E 35
1125020300 182S 529E 40
1125020306 181S 521E 40
1125020312 181S 505E 40
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.0S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.6S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.6S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.7S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.3S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.3S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 50.3E.
03FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031246
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/7/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 51.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/04 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/04 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2025/02/05 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2025/02/05 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

60H: 2025/02/06 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/08 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED IN A CURVED BAND, BUT
THE CURVATURE HAS WEAKENED AND THE CURVED BAND HAS BROKEN UP. THE
GCOM-W AT 0948UTC SHOWS AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER (ALBEIT AT THE EDGE OF
THE SWATH) AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SUCH A PATTERN
REFLECTING THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE EASTERN HALF-CIRCLE. THE
ASCAT PASS AT 0622UTC ALSO SHOWS A STILL MODEST CIRCULATION, WITH
WINDS REMAINING AT 30KT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE NAMING
THRESHOLD WAS THEREFORE VERY TEMPORARY BEFORE THE 06UTC ANALYSIS
TIME. BY INERTIA AND WITH A DVORAK ANAYLSE IN T AT 2.5- (WITH AN
ESTIMATED CENTER AT THE EDGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEFINING A
SLOWDOWN IN THE FINAL MOMENTS), THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LEAVE A CI OF
2.5+ WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 30/35KT. FAIDA IS STILL A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM, BUT IT'S STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY,
PROBABLY DUE TO A LITTLE MORE SHEAR.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, WITH A WESTERLY FLOW STILL DEFINED
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY AND SLOWER
LOCATION IN RELATION TO THE PREVIOUS NETWORK HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
TRACK, WITH A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR STILL ENVISAGED AROUND TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION EVEN BEFORE THE
LANDFALL, AND A CHRONOLOGICAL DIFFERENCE OF +/- 3 HOURS REMAINS.
THEREAFTER, DISPERSION INCREASES FURTHER AS THE VORTEX EMERGES IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DISPERSION
REMAINS HIGH ON THIS TRACK, INDUCING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRESENT TRACK FORECAST, WITH SOME GUIDELINES TENDING TO STAY A LITTLE
MORE ON LAND. THE RSMC FORECAST IS STILL BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WITH A RAPID EXIT FOLLOWED BY A
NEW LANDFALL WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SOME INDICATIONS (STEERING FLOW TILTING IN THE
LOWER LAYERS) SUGGEST A SLOWER MOVEMENT IN THE CHANNEL, A SCENARIO
NOT YET RETAINED BY THE RSMC.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY LOCATION OF THE
SYSTEM PLACES IT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHEAR ZONE, WITH DRY
AIR STILL OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT,
REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THE
LACK OF STRENGTH IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEMS TO RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFICATION. FAIDA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE LANDFALL OVER THE
PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA (MADAGASCAR). THE DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS
REMAINS HIGH, EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM, WHICH MEANS THAT THE PRESENT
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN UNDERGO
A NEW PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT RE-ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF ITS
INTERNAL STRUCTURE (FOLLOWING ITS 24-HOUR TRANSIT OVER MADAGASCAR).
THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE SHOULD BE REACHED BEFORE THE
LANDFALL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR :
- GALE FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY OVER TOAMASINA PROVINCE DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST OF
TOAMASINA PROVINCE, CLOSE TO AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- HEAVY RAINFALLS ON THE NORTH-WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA
AND MAHAJANGA PROVINCES) ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, IN CONNECTION WITH
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MONSOON FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- WAVES CLOSE TO 4M NEAR THE LANDFALL ZONE BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031246
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/7/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 51.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 195 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/02/2025 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 04/02/2025 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 05/02/2025 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 05/02/2025 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

60H: 06/02/2025 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

72H: 06/02/2025 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2025 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 08/02/2025 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5- CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE EN BANDE
INCURVEE MAIS LA COURBURE A FAIBLIE ET LA BANDE INCURVEE S'EST
MORCELEE. LA GCOM-W DE 0948UTC MONTRE UN CENTRE MAL DEFINI (BIEN
QU'EN BORD DE FAUCHEE) EN LIMITE EST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE, UNE
TELLE CONFIGURATION TRADUIT L'INFLUENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERLCE
EST. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0622UTC MONTRE ELLE AUSSI UNE CIRCULATION
ENCORE MODESTE AVEC DES VENTS RESTANT A 30KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST. LE SEUIL DE BAPTEME A DONC ETE TRES TEMPORAIRE AVANT LE RESEAU
DE 06UTC. PAR INERTIE ET AVEC UNE ANAYLSE DVORAK EN T A 2.5- (AVEC UN
CENTRE ESTIME EN BORDURE DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DEFINISSANT UN
RALENTISSEMENT AU COURS DES DERNIERS INSTANTS), LES CONTRAINTES
DVORAK LAISSENT UN CI DE 2.5+ AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES DE 30/35KT.
FAIDA RESTE ENCORE UNE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE MAIS ELLE PEINE A
MAINTENIR CETTE INTENSITE CERTAINEMENT GENE PAR UN CISAILLEMENT UN
PEU PLUS PRESENT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
VERS L'OUEST TOUJOURS DEFINI PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LA
LOCALISATION UN PEU PLUS NORD ET PLUS LENT PAR RAPPORT AU RESEAU
PRECEDENT MODIFIE PEU LA TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR TOUJOURS ENVISAGE AUTOUR DE MARDI MATIN. IL EXISTE
TOUJOURS UNE FORTE DISPERSION MEME AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE ET UNE
DIFFERENCE DE CHRONOLOGIE DE +/- 3HEURES SUR L'ATTERRISSAGE RESTE
D'ACTUALITE. PAR LA SUITE, LA DISPERSION AUGMENTE ENCORE LORS DE LA
RESSORTIE DU VORTEX DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN SECONDE PARTIE DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE. LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, INDUISANT UNE CONFIANCE MODEREE SUR LA PRESENTE
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, CERTAINES GUIDANCES PRESENTANT UNE TENDANCE
A RESTER UN PEU PLUS SUR TERRE. LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE BASEE SUR UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES EN GARDANT UNE
RESSORTIE RAPIDE SUIVI D'UN NOUVEL ATTERRISSAGE QUI DEVRAIT AVOIR
LIEU SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES A ECHEANCE DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN.
CEPENDANT, CERTAINS INDICES (FLUX DIRECTEUR BASCULANT DANS LES
COUCHES PLUS BASSES) LAISSER PENSER A UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT DANS
LE CANAL, SCENARIO QUI N'EST PAS ENCORE RETENU PAR LE CMRS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA LOCALISATION UN PEU PLUS NORD DU SYSTEME LE
PLACE DANS UNE ZONE DE CISAILLEMENT UN PEU PLUS MARQUE AVEC ENCORE DE
L'AIR SEC SUR LA PARTIE EST DU SYSTEME. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UNE
INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE RESTE PREVUE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES
MAIS L'ABSENCE DE ROBUSTESSE DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
SEMBLE ECARTER LE POTENTIEL D'UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE. FAIDA
DEVRAIT RESTER AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA (MADAGASCAR). LA DISPERSION
ENTRE MODELES RESTE FORTE MEME A COURTE ECHEANCE, D'OU UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE. LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT PAR LA SUITE CONNAITRE UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
UNE FOIS RESSORTI DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE DE MERCREDI,
MAIS CELA DEPENDRA DE LA QUALITE DE SA STRUCTURE INTERNE (SUITE A SON
TRANSIT DE 24H SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES). LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE DEVRAIT ETRE ATTEINT AVANT LE NOUVEL ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA EN COURS DE
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI ET JUSQU'EN MATINEE DE MARDI.
- FORTES PLUIES ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI PRES DU LITTORAL DE LA
PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA A PROXIMITE ET UN PEU AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'IMPACT. CUMULS AUTOUR DE 100-150 MM EN 24H.
- FORTES PLUIES SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES
D'ANTSIRANANA ET MAHAJANGA) MARDI ET MERCREDI, EN LIEN AVEC LA MISE
EN PLACE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON SUR LE NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE.
CUMULS DE 100-200 MM EN 24H.
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE ENTRE LUNDI
SOIR ET MARDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 031202
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 03/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FAIDA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 51.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/04 AT 00 UTC:
17.9 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/04 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/7/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 51.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/03 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/04 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/04 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2025/02/05 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

60H: 2025/02/05 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/07 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/08 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED FROM A CDO PATTERN WITH
A CENTER AT THE EASTERN LIMIT OF CONVECTION TO A CURVED BAND PATTERN.
THE EXISTENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR STILL LEAVES THE CENTER
SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM THE SPIRAL OF THE HIGHEST SUMMITS, ALSO
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN PART OF FAIDA. DUE TO IMPROVED
CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES, A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 2.5+ CAN BE
PERFORMED. SYSTEM 07-20242025 HAS THEREFORE BEEN NAMED FAIDA AT 05UTC
BY THE MADAGASCAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, DEFINING MAXIMUM WINDS OF
AROUND 35KT, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CURVED BAND.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
DRIVING A GENERAL WESTERLY MOVEMENT. A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR IS
STILL ENVISAGED AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE
OF DISPERSION EVEN BEFORE THE LANDFALL, AND A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING
COULD LEAVE THE LANDFALL UNCERTAIN BY +/- 3 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
DISPERSION INCREASES FURTHER AS THE VORTEX EMERGES INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST
IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WITH A
TENDENCY TO FOLLOW THE AMERICAN CONSENSUS AND GFS MODEL A LITTLE MORE
CLOSELY. DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH ON THIS TRACK, INDUCING MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST, BUT A NEW LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THERE ARE NO NEW CLUES: WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
SHEAR CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND DRY AIR STILL OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE SYSTEM, REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE IF THE CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MORE OR LESS RAPID. AN INTENSIFICATION
TO THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
BEFORE THE LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA (MADAGASCAR). THE
DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS HIGH, EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM, WHICH
MEANS THAT THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
SYSTEM COULD THEN UNDERGO A NEW PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT
RE-ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE QUALITY OF ITS INTERNAL STRUCTURE (FOLLOWING ITS 24-HOUR
TRANSIT OVER MADAGASCAR). THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE SHOULD BE
REACHED BEFORE THE LANDFALL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING OVER
TOAMASINA PROVINCE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST OF
TOAMASINA PROVINCE, NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
TOTALS AROUND 100-200 MM IN 24H LOCALLY.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE NORTH-WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
(ANTSIRANANA AND MAHAJANGA PROVINCES) ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, IN
CONNECTION WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MONSOON FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 100-200 MM IN 24 TO 48H, LOCALLY UP TO 300 MM.
- WAVES NEAR 4 METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030632
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/7/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FAIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 51.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/02/2025 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 04/02/2025 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 04/02/2025 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 05/02/2025 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

60H: 05/02/2025 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 0

72H: 06/02/2025 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2025 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

120H: 08/02/2025 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SO: 165 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A EVOLUEE D'UNE
CONFIGURATION EN CDO AVEC UN CENTRE EN LIMITE EST DE LA CONVECTION
VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE. LA EXISTENCE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE LAISSE ENCORE LE CENTRE UN PEU
DECALE PAR RAPPORT A LA SPIRALE DES SOMMETS LES PLUS HAUTS, INFLUENCE
AUSSI PAR DE L'AIR SEC SUR LA PARTIE EST DE FAIDA. DU FAIT DE
L'AMELIORATION DE LA COURBURE SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES, UNE ANALYSE
DVORAK A 2.5+ PEUT ETRE FAITE. LE SYSTEME 07-20242025 A DONC ETE
BAPTISE FAIDA A 05UTC PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MALGACHE,
DEFINISSANT DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 35KT, PRINCIPALEMENT
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DANS LA COURBURE DE LA BANDE INCURVEE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
AU SUD PILOTE UN MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR EST TOUJOURS ENVISAGE AUTOUR DE MARDI MATIN. IL EXISTE
TOUJOURS UNE FORTE DISPERSION MEME AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE, UNE
DIFFERENCE DE CHRONOLOGIE POURRAIT LAISSER UNE INCERTITUDE DE +/-
3HEURES SUR L'ATTERRISSAGE. PAR LA SUITE, LA DISPERSION AUGMENTE
ENCORE LORS DE LA RESSORTIE DU VORTEX DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN
SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, AVEC UNE
TENDANCE A SUIVRE UN PEU PLUS LE CONSENSUS AMERICAIN ET GFS. LA
DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, INDUISANT UNE
CONFIANCE MODEREE SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE MAIS UN
NOUVEL ATTERRISSAGE DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES A
ECHEANCE DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, PAS DE NOUVEAUX INDICES : AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT
D'EST-SUD-EST QUI CONTINUE DE BAISSER ET AVEC ENCORE DE L'AIR SEC SUR
LA PARTIE EST DU SYSTEME, UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE EST PREVUE
DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. NEANMOINS, CELLE-CI POURRAIT ETRE PLUS
NOTABLE EN PARTICULIER SI LA CONSOLIDATION DE LA CIRCULATION DE
BASSES COUCHES EST PLUS OU MONS RAPIDE. UNE INTENSIFICATION AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE EST POUR LE MOMENT PREVUE AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA (MADAGASCAR). LA DISPERSION
ENTRE MODELES RESTE FORTE MEME A COURTE ECHEANCE, D'OU UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE. LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT PAR LA SUITE CONNAITRE UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
UNE FOIS RESSORTI DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE DE MERCREDI,
MAIS CELA DEPENDRA DE LA QUALITE DE SA STRUCTURE INTERNE (SUITE A SON
TRANSIT DE 24H SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES). LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE DEVRAIT ETRE ATTEINT AVANT LE NOUVEL ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :

MADAGASCAR :
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA A PARTIR DE
LUNDI SOIR JUSQU'A MARDI MATIN.
- FORTES PLUIES ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI PRES DU LITTORAL DE LA
PROVINCE DE TOAMASINA A PROXIMITE ET UN PEU AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'IMPACT. CUMULS AUTOUR DE 100-200 MM EN 24H.
- TRES FORTES PLUIES SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES
D'ANTSIRANANA ET MAHAJANGA) MARDI ET MERCREDI, EN LIEN AVEC LA MISE
EN PLACE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON SUR LE NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE.
CUMULS DE 100-200 MM EN 24 A 48H, LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 300 MM.
- VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE ENTRE LUNDI
SOIR ET MARDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 030603
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 03/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FAIDA) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 51.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/03 AT 18 UTC:
18.0 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/04 AT 06 UTC:
17.5 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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