Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ELVIS-25
in Madagascar, French Southern Territories

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 34.1S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 38.4S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 35.2S 52.9E.
31JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 836 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME RAGGED, ELONGATED
AND
FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SHEARED 100+ NM
SOUTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
TRAILING THE LLC TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY, HELD
HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 311509Z SAR PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 12S HAS
TRANSFORMED INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY WITH A COLD-CORE LOW AND
AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 311800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS
12
FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310700
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/6/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.5 S / 48.3 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/31 18 UTC: 34.0 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/01 06 UTC: 37.7 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 405 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/01 18 UTC: 42.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 640 SE: 425 SW: 185 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 205

48H: 2025/02/02 06 UTC: 46.9 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2025/02/02 18 UTC: 48.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2025/02/03 06 UTC: 49.4 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE ELVIS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW LARGELY EXPOSED, ASIDE FROM
DEEP CONVECTION, AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF AN ELONGATED STRUCTURE. THE
SSMIS DMSP-F17 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. ELVIS STAYS CLASSIFIED AS A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40KT, IN
AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHT'S SAR AND SMAP DATA.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, ELVIS HAS SLOWED DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT
SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ELVIS IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND IT
MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310700
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/6/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 31.5 S / 48.3 E
(TRENTE UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/01/2025 18 UTC: 34.0 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 270 SO: 0 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 65

24H: 01/02/2025 06 UTC: 37.7 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 405 SO: 165 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 140 NO: 0

36H: 01/02/2025 18 UTC: 42.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 640 SE: 425 SO: 185 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 260 SO: 155 NO: 205

48H: 02/02/2025 06 UTC: 46.9 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

60H: 02/02/2025 18 UTC: 48.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

72H: 03/02/2025 06 UTC: 49.4 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES D'ELVIS EST A PRESENT EN GRANDE
PARTIE EXPOSEE, EN DEHORS DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, ET MONTRE DES
SIGNES D'UNE STRUCTURE ALLONGEE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DMSP-F17
MONTRE QUE LA CONVECTION EST ENCORE PRESENTE AU SUD DU SYSTEME.
CEPENDANT LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT BIEN RECHAUFFES SUR LES 12
DERNIERES HEURES. ELVIS RESTE CLASSEE DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE.
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 40KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES SAR ET
SMAP D'HIER SOIR.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, ELVIS A BIEN RALENTI SUR LES DERNIERES
HEURES MAIS DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU LE SUD-EST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE CENTREE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ET A
L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. IL DEVRAIT MAINTENIR CE
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DES LATITUDES AUSTRALES POUR LES PROCHAINS
JOURS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, ELVIS COMMENCE A RENCONTRER DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DE MOINS EN MOINS FAVORABLE AVEC LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. IL DEVRAIT
PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES DANS LES
PROCHAINES 36H.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE). RESTE=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 310623
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 31/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (ELVIS) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.5 S / 48.3 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 115 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400MN IN THE SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/31 AT 18 UTC:
34.0 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/01 AT 06 UTC:
37.7 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 245 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE GMDSS MARINE
WARNINGS FQIO20 FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06Z AND 18Z BY METEO
FRANCE REUNION.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.7 S / 47.5 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/31 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 195

24H: 2025/02/01 00 UTC: 36.0 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 490 SW: 0 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/01 12 UTC: 40.0 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 500 SW: 0 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/02 00 UTC: 45.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 535 SW: 305 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 425 SE: 415 SW: 0 NW: 230

60H: 2025/02/02 12 UTC: 48.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 595 SW: 480 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 260


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE ELVIS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW LARGELY EXPOSED, ASIDE FROM
DEEP CONVECTION, AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF AN ELONGATED STRUCTURE.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM. ELVIS IS THEREFORE RECLASSIFIED AS
A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40KT, IN
AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHT'S SAR AND SMAP DATA.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE'S LITTLE CHANGE. ELVIS HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ELVIS IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND IT
MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310037
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/6/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 31/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.7 S / 47.5 E
(TRENTE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 325 SO: 250 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/01/2025 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 195 SO: 0 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 195

24H: 01/02/2025 00 UTC: 36.0 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 490 SO: 0 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 01/02/2025 12 UTC: 40.0 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 500 SO: 0 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 02/02/2025 00 UTC: 45.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 535 SO: 305 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 425 SE: 415 SO: 0 NO: 230

60H: 02/02/2025 12 UTC: 48.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 595 SO: 480 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SO: 360 NO: 260


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES D'ELVIS EST A PRESENT EN GRANDE
PARTIE EXPOSEE, EN DEHORS DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, ET MONTRE DES
SIGNES D'UNE STRUCTURE ALLONGEE. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT CONTINUE DE
SE RECHAUFFER. ELVIS EST DONC RECLASSEE DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE.
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 40KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES SAR ET
SMAP D'HIER SOIR.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. ELVIS A COMMENCE A
ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE CENTREE AU
SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ET A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. IL DEVRAIT MAINTENIR CE DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES POUR LES PROCHAINS JOURS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, ELVIS COMMENCE A RENCONTRER DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DE MOINS EN MOINS FAVORABLE AVEC LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. IL DEVRAIT
PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES DANS LES
PROCHAINES 36H.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 310015
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 31/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (ELVIS) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.7 S / 47.5 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 115 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/31 AT 12 UTC:
33.0 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 105 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/01 AT 00 UTC:
36.0 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 265 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 29.5S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 46.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 32.0S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 34.4S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.4 S / 46.5 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 490 SW: 335 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/31 06 UTC: 31.9 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 155

24H: 2025/01/31 18 UTC: 34.6 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 0 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/01 06 UTC: 37.5 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 0 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/01 18 UTC: 42.2 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 480 SW: 195 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 195

60H: 2025/02/02 06 UTC: 46.7 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 685 SE: 445 SW: 335 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 490 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 350

72H: 2025/02/02 18 UTC: 49.2 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 480 SW: 435 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 360 NW: 360

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

ELVIS' CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HOURS
AS SHEAR STRENGTHENS. ELVIS SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN ITS EXTROPICALIZATION
PHASE. IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 40KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE'S LITTLE CHANGE. ELVIS HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ELVIS IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND IT
MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301846
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.4 S / 46.5 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 490 SO: 335 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/01/2025 06 UTC: 31.9 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 155

24H: 31/01/2025 18 UTC: 34.6 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SO: 0 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 01/02/2025 06 UTC: 37.5 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SO: 0 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 01/02/2025 18 UTC: 42.2 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 480 SO: 195 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 325 SO: 0 NO: 195

60H: 02/02/2025 06 UTC: 46.7 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 685 SE: 445 SO: 335 NO: 490
34 KT NE: 490 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 350

72H: 02/02/2025 18 UTC: 49.2 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 480 SO: 435 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SO: 360 NO: 360

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ELVIS A CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER CES
DERNIERES HEURES AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT. ELVIS SEMBLE
AVOIR COMMENCE SA PHASE D'EXTROPICALISATION. EN L'ABSENCE
D'ESTIMATION FIABLE, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 40KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. ELVIS A COMMENCE A
ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-ES SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE CENTREE AU
SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ET A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. IL DEVRAIT MAINTENIR CE DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES POUR LES PROCHAINS JOURS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, ELVIS COMMENCE A RENCONTRER DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DE MOINS EN MOINS FAVORABLE AVEC LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. IL DEVRAIT
PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES DANS LES
PROCHAINES 36H.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 301819
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/01/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.4 S / 46.5 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 115 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 155 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 265 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
31.9 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 85 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/31 AT 18 UTC:
34.6 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301306
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.5 S / 45.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 600 SW: 415 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/31 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/01/31 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 110 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 75

36H: 2025/02/01 00 UTC: 34.1 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 465 SW: 205 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/01 12 UTC: 38.3 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 650 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SW: 195 NW: 85

60H: 2025/02/02 00 UTC: 43.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 575 SW: 230 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 205 NW: 130

72H: 2025/02/02 12 UTC: 47.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 695 SE: 480 SW: 325 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 335

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

AFTER AN UPTURN IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING, THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH ELVIS WARMED UP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE CENTER,
BUT VERY COMPACT. IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES
AVAILABLE, ELVIS IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
WITH WINDS OF 40KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. ELVIS BEGAN MOVING SOUTHEAST
LAST NIGHT, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ELVIS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FAIR
CONDITIONS, WITH A STILL STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, GOOD DIVERGENCE AND
LOW WIND SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SET TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS, BEFORE ELVIS MOVES INTO COLDER WATERS AND GRADUALLY LOSES ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301306
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/6/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 30/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.5 S / 45.4 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 600 SO: 415 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/01/2025 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 31/01/2025 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 110 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 75

36H: 01/02/2025 00 UTC: 34.1 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 465 SO: 205 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 65

48H: 01/02/2025 12 UTC: 38.3 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 650 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SO: 195 NO: 85

60H: 02/02/2025 00 UTC: 43.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 575 SO: 230 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 205 NO: 130

72H: 02/02/2025 12 UTC: 47.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 695 SE: 480 SO: 325 NO: 520
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 240 SO: 140 NO: 335

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

APRES UN REGAIN DANS SON ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EN MATINEE, LA
TEMPERATURE DU SOMMET DES NUAGES ASSOCIA S A ELVIS S'EST DE NOUVEAU
RECHAUFFEE CET APRES-MIDI. LA CONVECTION RESTE RELATIVEMENT PROCHE DU
CENTRE MAIS TRES COMPACTE. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, ELVIS EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS DE 40KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. ELVIS A AMORCE SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST LA NUIT DERNIERE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE CENTREE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ET A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. IL DEVRAIT MAINTENIR CE DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION
DES LATITUDES AUSTRALES POUR LES PROCHAINS JOURS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, ELVIS RENCONTRE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS
CORRECTES AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ENCORE FORT, UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT. CES CONDITIONS
DEVRAIENT SE MAINTENIR ENCORE DANS LES PROCHAINES 18H, PUIS ELVIS VA
CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES ET PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 301213
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.5 S / 45.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 115 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 225 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 325 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/31 AT 00 UTC:
29.4 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/31 AT 12 UTC:
31.3 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 26.8S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 28.8S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 31.1S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 33.8S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 37.0S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 44.6E.
30JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352
NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302100Z AND 310900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300722
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/6/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 44.5 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 600 SW: 415 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/30 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 555 SW: 360 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 75

24H: 2025/01/31 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 545 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 85

36H: 2025/01/31 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 530 SW: 380 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 95

48H: 2025/02/01 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 520 SW: 390 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 100

60H: 2025/02/01 18 UTC: 40.3 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SW: 400 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 110

72H: 2025/02/02 06 UTC: 45.2 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 490 SW: 405 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

AFTER A SHARP DROP IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT, THE CONVECTION
HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. IT IS VERY COMPACT AND
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE CENTER. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE, ELVIS IS MAINTAINED AT
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, WITH WINDS OF 40KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. ELVIS BEGAN MOVING SOUTHEAST
LAST NIGHT, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ELVIS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FAIR
CONDITIONS, WITH A STILL STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, GOOD DIVERGENCE AND
LOW WIND SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SET TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BEFORE ELVIS MOVES INTO COLDER WATERS AND GRADUALLY LOSES ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- WAVES OF UP TO 4M STILL POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE CAP SAINTE-MARIE
REGION, ABATTING OVERNIGHT.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300722
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/6/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.6 S / 44.5 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 600 SO: 415 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/01/2025 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 555 SO: 360 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 75

24H: 31/01/2025 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 545 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 85

36H: 31/01/2025 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 530 SO: 380 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 95

48H: 01/02/2025 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 520 SO: 390 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 100

60H: 01/02/2025 18 UTC: 40.3 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 110

72H: 02/02/2025 06 UTC: 45.2 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 490 SO: 405 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SO: 240 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

APRES UNE FORTE BAISSE DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE LA NUIT DERNIERE, LA
CONVECTION A REPRIS UN PEU DE VIGUEUR DANS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES.
ELLE EST TRES COMPACTE ET SITUE AU SUD-OUEST DU CENTRE. EN ACCORD
AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, ELVIS EST
MAINTENU AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS DE
40KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. ELVIS A AMORCE SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST LA NUIT DERNIERE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE CENTREE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ET A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. IL DEVRAIT MAINTENIR CE DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION
DES LATITUDES AUSTRALES POUR LES PROCHAINS JOURS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, ELVIS RENCONTRE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS
CORRECTES AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ENCORE FORT, UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT. CES CONDITIONS
DEVRAIENT SE MAINTENIR ENCORE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, PUIS ELVIS VA
CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES ET PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR :
- VAGUES DE 4M ENCORE POSSIBLE AUJOURD'HUI DANS LA REGION DU CAP
SAINTE-MARIE, S'AMORTISSANT LA NUIT PROCHAINE.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 300616
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 44.5 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 225 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 325 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
27.8 S / 45.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
29.9 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 300027
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 43.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 245 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 275 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/30 AT 12 UTC:
26.9 S / 44.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/31 AT 00 UTC:
28.9 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 25.8S 43.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 43.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 26.6S 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 28.0S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291930
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 42.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 510 SW: 455 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/30 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 390 SW: 390 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 195 SW: 100 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/30 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 45

36H: 2025/01/31 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/31 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/01 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 465 SW: 185 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/02/01 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 435 SW: 220 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/02 18 UTC: 44.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 425 SW: 315 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 165


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFIED
IN ELVIS CORE, WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN BY THE 1106Z AMSR2 PASS. THIS
MORNING'S COMPLETE ASCAT DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF WINDS
EXCEEDING 40KT IN THE SOUTH- WESTERN QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY WAS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 45KT AT 09Z.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ELVIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY DUE TO
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OVER
SOUTH AFRICA AND A SECOND RIDGE TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR. TOMORROW,
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS
AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ELVIS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A RATHER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH LIMITED SHEAR, VERY GOOD POLAR
SIDE DIVERGENCE AND SUFFICIENT OCEAN POTENTIAL, DESPITE DRY AIR IN
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. IT COULD THEREFORE REACH THE SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR AND
THE MARKED DROP IN SST SOUTH OF 30S, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINSTORMS UNDERWAY ON THE TOLIARA PROVINCE UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING.

- 4M WAVES LIKELY OFF TOLIARA PROVINCE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- 4M WAVES POSSIBLE OFF INHAMBANE PROVINCE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291930
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/6/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.2 S / 42.7 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 510 SO: 455 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/01/2025 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 390 SO: 390 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 195 SO: 100 NO: 0

24H: 30/01/2025 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 45

36H: 31/01/2025 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 31/01/2025 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 45

60H: 01/02/2025 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 465 SO: 185 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 01/02/2025 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 435 SO: 220 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2025 18 UTC: 44.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 425 SO: 315 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 165


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST AFFAIBLIE
A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE D'ELVIS COMME LE MONTRE LES IMAGES INFRA-ROUGE
A CONTRASTE RENFORCEE AINSI QUE L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES F-18 DE 1400Z.
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENU A 45KT POUR 18Z EN L'ABSENCE DE MESURE ASCAT
MAIS POURRAIT ETRE REEVALUE ULTERIEUREMENT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, ELVIS DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN
RAISON DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE STATIONNEE SUR L'AFRIQUE DU SUD ET UNE SECONDE
SITUEE A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR. DEMAIN JEUDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
CENTREE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ET A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ELVIS DEVRAIT BENEFICIER DANS LES PROCHAINES 48H D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT
PLUTOT FAVORABLE A SON DEVELOPPEMENT AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT LIMITE, UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
SUFFISANT, MALGRE DE L'AIR SEC PRESENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. IL
POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. A PARTIR
DE VENDREDI AVEC L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ET LA BAISSE
SENSIBLE DE LA TSM AU SUD DE 30S, IL DEVRAIT PERDRE GRADUELLEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR :
- FORTES PLUIES ORAGEUSES EN COURS SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA, SE
MAITENANT JUSQU'A JEUDI MATIN
- VAGUES DE 4M PROBABLES AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA JUSQU'EN
FIN DE JOURNEE DE JEUDI.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- VAGUES DE 4M POSSIBLES AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE JUSQU'A
JEUDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 291811
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/01/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 42.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 245 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 275 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
25.6 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
27.1 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 291224
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/01/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 42.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 245 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 275 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
25.3 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/30 AT 12 UTC:
26.5 S / 44.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 25.0S 42.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 42.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.1S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.8S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 27.3S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 29.0S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 42.6E.
29JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214
NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290734
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 42.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 510 SW: 510 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/29 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 415 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/30 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2025/01/30 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

48H: 2025/01/31 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

60H: 2025/01/31 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/01 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/02 06 UTC: 42.6 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 425 SW: 280 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 195


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND ELVIS WEAKENED,
WITH THE TOPS WARMING UP AND THE CENTER MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THIS MORNING'S ASCAT PARTIAL DATA STILL SHOW GALES
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY WILL BE RE-EVALUATED WITH
THE COMPLETE DATA.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ELVIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY DUE TO
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OVER
SOUTH AFRICA AND A SECOND RIDGE TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR. TOMORROW,
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS
AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ELVIS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A RATHER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH LIMITED SHEAR, VERY GOOD POLAR
SIDE DIVERGENCE AND SUFFICIENT OCEAN POTENTIAL, DESPITE DRY AIR IN
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. IT COULD THEREFORE APPROACH OR REACH THE SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP
SHEAR AND THE MARKED DROP IN SST SOUTH OF 30S, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINSTORMS UNDERWAY ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COASTS OF TOLIARA
PROVINCE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.100MM 24H RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED
LOCALLY
- 4M WAVES LIKELY OFF TOLIARA PROVINCE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- 4M WAVES POSSIBLE OFF INHAMBANE PROVINCE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290734
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/6/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.1 S / 42.7 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 510 SO: 510 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2025 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 415 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 0

24H: 30/01/2025 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 30/01/2025 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

48H: 31/01/2025 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

60H: 31/01/2025 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 65

72H: 01/02/2025 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 120 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2025 06 UTC: 42.6 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 425 SO: 280 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 195


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AUTOUR D'ELVIS A
CONNU UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, AVEC UN RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS
ET UN CENTRE EN MARGE DE L'ACTIVITE PRINCIPALE. TOUTEFOIS, LES
DONNEES PARTIELS DE LA PASSE ASCAT DE CE MATIN, TEMOIGNE ENCORE DE LA
PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. L'INTENSITE SERA
REEVALUE AVEC LES DONNEES COMPLETES.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, ELVIS DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN
RAISON DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE STATIONNEE SUR L'AFRIQUE DU SUD ET UNE SECONDE
SITUEE A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR. DEMAIN JEUDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
CENTREE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ET A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ELVIS DEVRAIT BENEFICIER DANS LES PROCHAINES 48H D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT
PLUTOT FAVORABLE A SON DEVELOPPEMENT AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT LIMITE, UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
SUFFISANT, MALGRE DE L'AIR SEC PRESENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. IL
POURRAIT DONC APPROCHER OU ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI AVEC L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND ET LA BAISSE SENSIBLE DE LA TSM AU SUD DE 30S DEVRAIT PERDRE
GRADUELLEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR :
- FORTES PLUIES ORAGEUSES EN COURS SUR LA COTE OUEST ET SUD DE LA
PROVINCE DE TOLIARA JUSQU'A JEUDI MATIN, AVEC ENCORE 100MM POSSIBLE
LOCALEMENT EN 24H.
- VAGUES DE 4M PROBABLES AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA JUSQU'EN
FIN DE JOURNEE DE JEUDI.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- VAGUES DE 4M POSSIBLES AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE JUSQU'A
JEUDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 290619
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/01/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 42.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 65
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 275 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/29 AT 18 UTC:
25.5 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
25.9 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290017
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 520 NW: 555
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/29 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 470 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 55

24H: 2025/01/30 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/30 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 65

48H: 2025/01/31 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 295 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2025/01/31 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/01 00 UTC: 32.1 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/02 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 165

120H: 2025/02/03 00 UTC: 41.0 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 285 SW: 345 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

THE COMPLETE ASCAT-B FROM 1914Z RESITUATED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE CENTER WAS SOME
TWENTY NAUTICAL MILES CLOSER TO THE MALAGASY COAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. FINALLY, THIS ASCAT PASS ENABLED THE SYSTEM 06-20242025 TO
BE NAMED, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SYSTEM'S
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM WAS THEREFORE NAMED ELVIS BY THE
MADAGASCAR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT
THE SCENARIO OF A SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY OR EVEN HOVERING OVER THE
SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24/30H, THEN ACCELERATING IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO LEAVE THE CHANNEL BY THURSDAY, NOW SEEMS
TO BE THE CONSENSUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ELVIS WILL EVOLVE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, BETWEEN A
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE STATIONED OVER SOUTH AFRICA AND A SECOND
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE BASIN WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY,
DRIVING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RAPIDLY EVACUATING IT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, AIDED BY A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH.

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE RSMC LA REUNION SCENARIO
STILL SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM, BENEFITING
FROM RELATIVELY GOOD CONDITIONS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE
MID-TROPOSPHERE CONSTRAINT, PROGRESSIVELY INJECTING DRY AIR ALOFT.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL CONSTRAINT SHOULD HINDER THE VORTEX'S PLANS FOR
INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE VORTEX MANAGES TO PARTIALLY COUNTERACT IT BY
SYMMETRIZING ITS LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THEREAFTER, FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, WITH A WELL-MARKED DEEP SHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN A
MODERATE INTENSITY THROUGH BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AS IT EVACUATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINSTORMS UNDERWAY ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COASTS OF TOLIARA
PROVINCE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 MM TO 200 MM IN 24 HOURS EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL
AREAS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, AS THE
SYSTEM RECEDES.
- WAVES OF 4M LIKELY OFF TOLIARA PROVINCE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- WAVES OF 4M POSSIBLE OFF INHAMBANE PROVINCE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290017
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/6/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (ELVIS)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/01/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.1 S / 42.8 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 520 NO: 555
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2025 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SO: 470 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 55

24H: 30/01/2025 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

36H: 30/01/2025 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 260 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 65

48H: 31/01/2025 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 295 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 31/01/2025 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 280 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 01/02/2025 00 UTC: 32.1 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2025 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 360 SO: 270 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 165

120H: 03/02/2025 00 UTC: 41.0 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 285 SO: 345 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

L'ASCAT-B COMPLETE DE 1914Z A PERMIS DE RESITUER LE CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES EN BORDURE NORD DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE. LE CENTRE
ETAIT PLUS PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES D'UNE VINGTAINE DE MILLES
NAUTIQUES QUE PREVU INITIALEMENT. ENFIN CETTE PASSE ASCAT A PERMIS DE
PROCEDER AU BAPTEME DU SYSTEME 06-20242025, AU VU DE LA PRESENCE DE
VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME.
CELUI-CI A DONC ETE BAPTISE DU NOM DE ELVIS PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR.

IL PERSISTE ENCORE QUELQUES INCERTITUDES SUR LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE, MAIS LE SCENARIO D'UN SYSTEME SE DEPLACANT LENTEMENT
VOIRE FAISANT DU STATIONNAIRE SUR LE SUD DU CANAL AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24/30H PUIS ACCELERANT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST POUR
QUITTER LE CANAL A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI SEMBLE MAINTENANT FAIRE
CONSENSUS. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H ELVIS EVOLUERA SUR PLACE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, ENTRE UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE STATIONNEE SUR L'AFRIQUE DU SUD ET UNE SECONDE
SITUEE A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DORSALE CENTRA E
SUR LE BASSIN REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTA ME EN
IMPULSANT UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST, L'EVACUANT RAPIDEMENT AU SUD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR, AIDE EGALEMENT PAR UN TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD.

PEU DE CHANGEMENTS EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE. LE SCENARIO DU
CMRS DE LA REUNION SUGGERRE ENCORE UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION A COURT
TERME, BENEFICIANT DE CONDITIONS RELATIVEMENT BONNES MALGRA LA
PRESENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, INJECTANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC EN ALTITUDE. CETTE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE
DEVRAIT ENTRAVER LES VELLEITES D'INTENSIFICATION DU VORTEX MAIS
CELUI-CI PARVIENT A LA CONTRER PARTIELLEMENT EN SYMETRISANT SA
STRUCTURE DE BASSES COUCHES. PAR LA SUITE, A PARTIR DE VENDREDI AVEC
UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND BIEN MARQUA , LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GARDER UNE
INTENSITE MODEREE PAR DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES, LORS DE SON
EVACUATION VERS LE SUD-EST PERDANT AINSI GRADUELLEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR :
- FORTES PLUIES ORAGEUSES EN COURS SUR LA COTE OUEST ET SUD DE LA
PROVINCE DE TOLIARA JUSQU'A MERCREDI.
CUMULS DE 100 MM A 200 MM EN 24H ATTENDUS SUR LA FRANGE LITTORALE.
AMELIORATION PROBABLE DE FACON GRADUELLE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR,
AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU SYSTEME.
- VAGUES DE 4M PROBABLES AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA JUSQU'EN
FIN DE JOURNEE DE JEUDI.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- VAGUES DE 4M POSSIBLES AU LARGE DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE JUSQU'A
MERCREDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 290006
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/01/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELVIS) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 430 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 45
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
24.6 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
24.6 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=