Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for TALIAH-25
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 31.1S 75.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1S 75.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.1S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 30.7S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 31.1S 75.8E.
18FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
10061 NM EAST OF SLIDELL, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S HAS BEEN ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD CIRCULATION DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
REGION OF FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE CIRCULATION. A 181601Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED ELEVATED WINDS UP TO
42 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, PROVIDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, AS IT IS SITUATED IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, STUCK BETWEEN
RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST AND A PASSING TROF TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST AND ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 12 AS A TRANSIENT LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RAPID PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT FORECAST
PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE BASIN WARNING CRITERIA EVEN AFTER
THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
181800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 20
FEET.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/9/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.2 S / 76.4 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/19 00 UTC: 31.0 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/19 12 UTC: 31.0 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/20 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/20 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2025/02/21 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2025/02/21 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/22 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 165 NW: 150


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
TALIAH'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS ADOPTED SOME POST-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX
BECOMING BROADER AND ELONGATED, DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET MORE THAN A
DEGREE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE CENTER AND A SHEARED STRUCTURE
REINFORCED BY BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS AND IS NOW OVER SST NEAR 23C.
IT IS SUBJECT TO WESTERLY WIND SHEAR HIGHER THAN 20 KT. DUE TO
INERTIA, THE SYSTEM'S WINDS REMAIN ESTIMATED AT 40 KT IN THE
SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT UNDER DEEP CONVECTION. DUE TO THE DEGRADATION OF
ITS CLOUD PATTERN, TALIAH HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND SHOULD NO LONGER REQUIRE REGULAR MONITORING BY RSMC LA
REUNION.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS BEING STEERED IN THE SHORT TERM BY
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION, LEADING
TO A VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IT
IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS, THUS MOVING AWAY TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES WHILE BEING ABSORBED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXTRATROPICAL WESTERLIES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TALIAH SHOULD KEEP SOME GALE-FORCE WINDS
DURING ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS THANKS TO OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS IN
THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, PARTLY ENHANCED BY BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, INCREASING WIND
SHEAR AND SURROUNDING DRY AIR WHICH IS INCREASINGLY PENETRATING THE
SYSTEM'S CORE, SHOULD LEAD TO TALIAH'S FINAL WEAKENING TREND. IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CONVECTION-LESS REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND THEN A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL LOW FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION ON
THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AVAILABLE IN
THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181236
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/9/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 31.2 S / 76.4 E
(TRENTE UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2025 00 UTC: 31.0 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 0

24H: 19/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.0 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 0

36H: 20/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 0

48H: 20/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 21/02/2025 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 21/02/2025 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 260 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/02/2025 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 165 NO: 150


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE TALIAH CE MARDI APRES-MIDI A ADOPTE DES
CARACTERISTIQUES POST-TROPICALES, AVEC UN VORTEX DE SURFACE EXPOSE
DEVENANT PLUS LARGE ET ALLONGE, UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE ELOIGNEE A
PLUS D'UN DEGRE AU SUD-EST DU CENTRE ET UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE
RENFORCEE PAR UNE INTERACTION BAROCLINE AVEC UN TALWEG DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE. LE SYSTEME A CONTINUE A SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE
SUD ET SE SITUE A PRESENT SUR DES EAUX A 23C. IL EST SOUMIS A UN
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST DE PLUS DE 20 KT. PAR INERTIE, LES VENTS DU
SYSTEME RESTENT ESTIMES A 40 KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST SOUS LA
CONVECTION. EN RAISON DE LA DEGRADATION DE SA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE,
TALIAH EST DECLASSEE EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL ET NE NECESSITERA PLUS
DE SUIVI REGULIER PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION.

LA TRAJECTOIRE EST PILOTEE A COURTE ECHEANCE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE, CONDUISANT A
UN MOUVEMENT TRES LENT ET ERRATIQUE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER
VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN BORDURE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. EN FIN
DE SEMAINE, ELLE FERA UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST, S'ELOIGNANT ALORS
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN ETANT ABSORBEE PAR UN TALWEG DE
SURFACE EN MARGE NORD DU COURANT PERTURBE D'OUEST EXTRATROPICAL.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE
COUP DE VENT PENDANT ENVIRON 24 HEURES GRACE A DES BOUFFEES DE
CONVECTION EPISODIQUES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, ENTRETENUES PAR UNE
INTERACTION BAROCLINE. MAIS L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT ET L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT QUI PENETRE
DE PLUS EN PLUS AU NIVEAU DU COEUR DU SYSTEME, DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A
UNE TENDANCE DEFINITIVE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE TALIAH. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR,
PUIS EN UNE FAIBLE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.


DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 181208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 18/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (TALIAH) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.2 S / 76.4 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/19 AT 00 UTC:
31.0 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/19 AT 12 UTC:
31.0 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE GMDSS MARINE WARNINGS FQIO20
FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06Z AND 18Z BY METEO-FRANCE REUNION.=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 30.9S 76.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.9S 76.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.2S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.0S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 30.8S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 31.2S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 31.0S 76.2E.
18FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1213 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z AND 190900Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.9 S / 76.5 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/18 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/19 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/19 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/20 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/20 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/21 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/22 06 UTC: 36.7 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TALIAH'S LOW-LEVEL VORTEX HAS BECOME MORE
EXPOSED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT MOVING AWAY
FROM THE CENTER BY MORE THAN 50 MN, PROBABLY AS A RESULT OF
INCREASING WIND SHEAR BRINGING MORE AND MORE DRY AIR OVER THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN A SHEAR PATTERN THUS
DROPS TO 2.0. A 0024Z SAR RCM1 PASS MEASURED WINDS NEAR 45 KT (50 KT
IN 1-MIN WINDS) IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 0026Z SMAP PASS ALSO
MEASURED WINDS OF 44 KT. THE SYSTEM'S PAST INTENSITY WAS THEREFORE
UPGRADED TO 45 KT AT 00UTC IN TALIAH'S BEST-TRACK. THE WEAKENING
TREND IN RECENT HOURS IS CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT-C PASS AT 0434Z
MEASURING WINDS NEAR 40 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TALIAH'S WIND
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 40 KT AT 06UTC.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS BEING STEERED IN THE SHORT TERM BY
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION, LEADING
TO A VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BEFORE TURNING
SOUTH-EASTWARDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK, MOVING AWAY TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICAL WESTERLIES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TALIAH SHOULD KEEP SOME GALE-FORCE WINDS
DURING THE SHORT PERIOD WHEN SHEAR IS STILL MODERATE, COINCIDING WITH
OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER,
THE LACK OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND SURROUNDING
DRY AIR WHICH IS INCREASINGLY PENETRATING THE SYSTEM'S CORE, SHOULD
LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF TALIAH BY WEDNESDAY, FIRST
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW (STILL SOME GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT) AND THEN INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180636
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.9 S / 76.5 E
(TRENTE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/02/2025 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 0

24H: 19/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 0

36H: 19/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 20/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 20/02/2025 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 21/02/2025 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/02/2025 06 UTC: 36.7 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 240 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES DE
TALIAH EST DEVENU PLUS EXPOSE, AVEC UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-EST S'ELOIGNANT DU CENTRE A PLUS DE 50 MN, PROBABLEMENT
SOUS L'EFFET DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT QUI APPORTE DE PLUS EN PLUS
D'AIR SEC SUR L'OUEST ET LE NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
EN CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE S'ABAISSE A 2.0. UNE PASSE SAR RCM1 A
0024Z A MESURE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 45 KT (50 KT EN VENTS 1-MIN)
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. UNE PASSE SMAP A 0026Z A AUSSI MESURE DES
VENTS DE 44 KT. L'INTENSITE PASSEE DU SYSTEME A DONC ETE AUGMENTEE A
45 KT A 00UTC DANS LA BEST-TRACK. LA TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DANS LES HEURES RECENTES EST CONFIRMEE PAR UNE PASSE ASCAT-C A 0434Z
MESURANT DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 40 KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.
L'INTENSITE DE TALIAH EST DONC ESTIMEE A 40 KT A 06UTC.

LA TRAJECTOIRE EST PILOTEE A COURTE ECHEANCE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE, CONDUISANT A
UN MOUVEMENT TRES LENT ET ERRATIQUE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER
VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN BORDURE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AVANT
DE FAIRE UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST EN FIN DE SEMAINE, S'ELOIGNANT
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN MARGE DU COURANT D'OUEST PERTURBE
AUSTRAL.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE
COUP DE VENT PENDANT LA COURTE PERIODE OU LE CISAILLEMENT EST ENCORE
MODERE, COINCIDANT AVEC DE PETITES REPRISES DE CONVECTION AU SUD-EST
DU CENTRE. MAIS L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, L'AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT ET L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT QUI PENETRE DE PLUS EN PLUS AU
NIVEAU DU COEUR DU SYSTEME, DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE D'ICI MERCREDI A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE TALIAH, EVOLUANT D'ABORD EN DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE (ENCORE DU COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR PAR
EFFET DE GRADIENT DE PRESSION) PUIS EN DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 180622
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 18/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.9 S / 76.5 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/18 AT 18 UTC:
31.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/19 AT 06 UTC:
31.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180009
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.1 S / 76.5 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/18 12 UTC: 30.3 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/19 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/19 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 250 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/20 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/20 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/21 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/22 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN, BUT STILL TIMIDLY, SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE SYSTEM. THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS REMAINS
MODERATE. WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTURN IN CONVECTION, A DVORAK ANALYSIS
SLIGHTLY RAISED TO 2.5- CAN BE MADE, BUT STILL UNDERESTIMATING THE
39KT REACHED WITH THE ASCAT PASS AT 1717UTC. THE ASCAT LOCALIZATION
SHOWS A SLOWED TRACK, WITH THE CENTER STRUGGLING TO PASS SOUTH OF
LATITUDE 30S. TALIAH REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40KT.

STILL A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT-RANGE TRACK FORECAST WITH THE
PRESENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A BAROMETRIC COLLAR
SITUATION. IN THESE CONDITIONS, SHORT-RANGE MODEL LOCATIONS ARE NOT
VERY EFFECTIVE, LEAVING A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AND IMPACTING ON
TRACK PREDICTION, WHICH BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A VERY SLOW,
EVEN ERRATIC MOVEMENT TOWARDS 30S LATITUDE FOR ALMOST 24/36H.
THEREAFTER, AN ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
SOUTHERLY EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM BY FRIDAY. SINCE MODEL DISPERSION
IS SOMEWHAT LESS AT THESE TIMES, THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCES.

WITH NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM, TALIAH SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE
WINDS DURING THE SHORT PERIOD WHEN SHEAR IS STILL MODERATE,
COINCIDING WITH A RESURGENCE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. RAPIDLY, THE
LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THE SURROUNDING
DRY AIR PENETRATING MORE AND MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO TALIAH'S DEFINITIVE WEAKENING, WITH A LOSS OF ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE EVOLUTION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LEAD TO A REINTENSIFICATION OF WINDS AS
IT EVACUATES TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES.


THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180009
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.1 S / 76.5 E
(TRENTE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/02/2025 12 UTC: 30.3 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 85 NO: 0

24H: 19/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 280 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 0

36H: 19/02/2025 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 250 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 20/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 0

60H: 20/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 21/02/2025 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/02/2025 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUE DE
SE RENFORCER MAIS TOUJOURS TIMIDEMENT EN GLISSANT DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST ANALYSE PAR LE
CIMSS RESTE MODERE. AVEC CE LEGER REGAIN DE CONVECTION, UNE ANALYSE
DVORAK UN PEU REHAUSSEE A 2.5- PEUT ETRE FAITE MAIS SOUS-ESTIMANT
ENCORE LES 39KT ATTEINTS AVEC LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1717UTC. LA
LOCALISATION AVEC L'ASCAT MONTRE BIEN UNE TRAJECTOIRE RALENTIE DONT
LE CENTRE A DU MAL A PASSER AU SUD DE LA LATITUDE 30S. TALIAH RESTE
CLASSEE EN TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 40KT.

TOUJOURS UN PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUR
LES COURTES ECHEANCES AVEC LA PRESENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE. DANS CES
CONDITIONS, LES LOCALISATIONS MODELES A COURTES ECHEANCES SONT PEU
EFFICACES LAISSANT UNE BONNE INCERTITUDE ET IMPACTANT SUR LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVIENT PLUS INCERTAINE AVEC UN
DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE VERS 30S DE LATITUDE PENDANT
PRES DE 24/36H. PAR LA SUITE, UNE ACCELERATION EST ATTENDUE AVEC
L'EVACUATION PLUS FRANCHE DU SYSTEME VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD A
ECHEANCE DE VENDREDI. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES ETANT UN PEU MOINDRE
A CES ECHEANCES, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES, TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR
DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PENDANT LA COURTE PERIODE OU LE
CISAILLEMENT EST ENCORE MODERE, COINCIDANT AVEC UN REGAIN DE
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. RAPIDEMENT, L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT ET L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT QUI PENETRE
DE PLUS EN PLUS AU NIVEAU DU COEUR DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE TALIAH, AVEC UNE PERTE DE CES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, L'EVOLUTION EN
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE CONDUIRA A UNE REINTENSIFICATION DES VENTS
LORS DE SON EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.


CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 180001
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 18/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.1 S / 76.5 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/18 AT 12 UTC:
30.3 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/19 AT 00 UTC:
30.4 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 30.0S 77.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0S 77.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.8S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.3S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.1S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 30.7S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.3S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 30.2S 76.9E.
17FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1202 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171826
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.1 S / 76.9 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/18 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/18 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95

36H: 2025/02/19 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/19 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/20 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 95

72H: 2025/02/20 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/21 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED TIMIDLY,
CONCENTRATING IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CLOUDY
PATTERN REFLECTS THE RETURN OF STRONGER SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS TIMID, AND THE LATEST
MICROWAVE PASSES DO NOT INDICATE A CLEAR UPTURN IN LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. IN THIS CONTEXT, IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE FOR EVEN A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF TALIAH. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS THEREFORE
REMAINS AT 2.0+ AS BEFORE, WHILE RETAINING THE WINDS PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED AT AROUND 35KT, VALIDATED BY THE SAR-RCM OF 1340UTC. TALIAH
IS STILL A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM, WHOSE LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES
SUGGEST THAT IT IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN, WITH A WEST-SOUTH-WEST
TRACK.

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, SINCE THE PRESENCE OF
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A BAROMETRIC COLLAR SITUATION IS
ALREADY CAUSING A SLOWDOWN AND AN ORIENTATION TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH A
VERY SLOW OR EVEN ERRATIC MOVEMENT TOWARDS 30S LATITUDE FOR ALMOST
24/36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, AN ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHERLY EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM BY FRIDAY. SINCE
MODEL DISPERSION IS SOMEWHAT LESS AT THESE TIMES, THE RSMC TRACK
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCES.

WITH NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM, TALIAH SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE
WINDS DURING THE SHORT PERIOD WHEN SHEAR IS STILL MODERATE,
COINCIDING WITH A RESURGENCE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. RAPIDLY, THE
LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THE SURROUNDING
DRY AIR PENETRATING MORE AND MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO TALIAH'S DEFINITIVE WEAKENING, WITH A LOSS OF ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE EVOLUTION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LEAD TO A REINTENSIFICATION OF WINDS AS
IT EVACUATES TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES.


THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171826
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.1 S / 76.9 E
(TRENTE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SO: 345 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/02/2025 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 0

24H: 18/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 95

36H: 19/02/2025 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 0

48H: 19/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 0

60H: 20/02/2025 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 95

72H: 20/02/2025 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2025 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
RENFORCEE TIMIDEMENT EN SE CONCENTRANT DANS LE QUADRANT EST DU
SYSTEME. CETTE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE TRADUIT LE RETOUR D'UN
CISAILLEMENT PLUS FORT. DE PLUS, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE RESTE TIMIDE ET LES DERNIERES PASSES MICRO-ONDE NE DENOTENT
PAS DE FRANC REGAIN DE CIRCULATION EN BASSES COUCHES. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, IL EST DIFFICILE DE PLAIDER POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION MEME
LEGERE DE TALIAH. L'ANALYSE DVORAK RESTE DONC A 2.0+ COMME
PRECEDEMMENT, TOUT EN GARDANT LES VENTS ESTIMES PRECEDEMMENT DE
L'ORDRE DE 35KT, VALIDES PAR LA SAR-RCM DE 1340UTC. TALIAH EST ENCORE
UNE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DONT LES DERNIERES PASSES MICRO-ONDES
PLAIDENT POUR UN DEBUT DE RALENTISSEMENT AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE
S'ORIENTANT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.

UN PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, PUISQUE LA
PRESENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL
BAROMETRIQUE, IMPACTE DEJA UN RALENTISSEMENT ET UNE ORIENTATION VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT PLUS
INCERTAINE AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE VERS 30S DE
LATITUDE PENDANT PRES DE 24/36H. PAR LA SUITE, UNE ACCELERATION EST
ATTENDUE AVEC L'EVACUATION PLUS FRANCHE DU SYSTEME VERS LES LATITUDES
PLUS SUD A ECHEANCE DE VENDREDI. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES ETANT UN
PEU MOINDRE A CES ECHEANCES, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES, TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR
DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PENDANT LA COURTE PERIODE OU LE
CISAILLEMENT EST ENCORE MODERE, COINCIDANT AVEC UN REGAIN DE
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. RAPIDEMENT, L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT ET L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT QUI PENETRE
DE PLUS EN PLUS AU NIVEAU DU COEUR DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE TALIAH, AVEC UNE PERTE DE CES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, L'EVOLUTION EN
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE CONDUIRA A UNE REINTENSIFICATION DES VENTS
LORS DE SON EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.


CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 171802
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.1 S / 76.9 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
105 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/18 AT 06 UTC:
30.6 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/18 AT 18 UTC:
30.8 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 171207
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.9 S / 77.5 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 220 NM AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
105 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/18 AT 00 UTC:
30.6 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/18 AT 12 UTC:
31.0 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 29.4S 77.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4S 77.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.1S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.8S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.1S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 30.9S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 30.9S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 77.6E.
17FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1246 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 170607
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 995 HPA
POSITION: 29.5 S / 77.7 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 200 NM AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/17 AT 18 UTC:
30.2 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/18 AT 06 UTC:
31.0 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170055
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.1 S / 78.4 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/17 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/18 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/18 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/19 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/19 12 UTC: 31.0 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 295 NW: 130

72H: 2025/02/20 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/21 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 110

120H: 2025/02/22 00 UTC: 36.8 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 240 NW: 205

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WEAK IN THE
VICINITY OF TALIAH'S CENTER. THE 2012Z AMSR2 PASS SEEMS TO CONFIRM
MAXIMUM WINDS CLOSE TO 40KT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK: TALIAH CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A
BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION. A VERY SLOW TO ERRATIC MOVEMENT IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED AROUND 30S LATITUDE, WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS
DEPENDING ON THE COMPETITION BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH. THIS SITUATION IS
PERFECTLY ILLUSTRATED BY THE ENSEMBLE TRACK PLUMES. THE RSMC TRACK
PREDICTION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES.

TALIAH SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
DESPITE SHEAR STILL PRESENT AND LIMITING. DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF
REDUCED SHEAR MONDAY, TALIAH INTENSITY COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WITHOUT HOWEVER REACHING THE
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD. THEREAFTER, THE LACK OF OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, THE INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR
PENETRATING MORE AND MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO
THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF TALIAH, WITH A LOSS OF ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170055
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.1 S / 78.4 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 0

24H: 18/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 0

36H: 18/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 0

48H: 19/02/2025 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 0

60H: 19/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.0 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 295 NO: 130

72H: 20/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2025 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 110

120H: 22/02/2025 00 UTC: 36.8 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 240 NO: 205

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
FAIBLE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DE TALIAH. LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 2012Z
SEMBLE CONFIRMER DES VENTS MAXIMAUX PROCHE DE 40KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE :
TALIAH CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
DEVIENT PLUS INCERTAINE A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE. UN
DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE EST DONC ATTENDU VERS 30S DE
LATITUDE, AVEC PLUSIEURS SCENARII DEPENDANT DE LA COMPETITION ENTRE
UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UN TALWEG CIRCULANT AU SUD.
CETTE SITUATION EST PARFAITEMENT ILLUSTREE PAR LE PANACHE DE
TRAJECTOIRES DES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU
CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES.

TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES MALGRE L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT TOUJOURS
PRESENT ET LIMITANT. A LA FAVEUR D'UNE COURTE PERIODE DE BAISSE DE
CISAILLEMENT LUNDI, L'INTENSITE DE TALIAH POURRAIT LEGEREMENT
REMONTER, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PLUS MARQUEE, SANS POUR AUTANT
ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE,
L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT ET
L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT QUI PENETRE DE PLUS EN PLUS AU NIVEAU DU COEUR
DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE TALIAH,
AVEC UNE PERTE DE CES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.


CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 28.9S 79.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 79.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.6S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.3S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 31.0S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.4S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 31.1S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 78.8E.
16FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1018 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 161800Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.8 S / 79.1 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/17 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/17 18 UTC: 30.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/18 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 315 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/18 18 UTC: 31.4 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 55

60H: 2025/02/19 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/19 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/20 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 110

120H: 2025/02/21 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 250

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WEAK IN THE
VICINITY OF TALIAH'S CENTER. HOWEVER, THIS EVENING'S ASCAT PASSES
SHOW THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 40KT IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK: TALIAH CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A
BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION. A VERY SLOW TO ERRATIC MOVEMENT IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED AROUND 30S LATITUDE, WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS
DEPENDING ON THE COMPETITION BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH. THIS SITUATION IS
PERFECTLY ILLUSTRATED BY THE ENSEMBLE TRACK PLUMES. THE RSMC TRACK
PREDICTION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES.

TALIAH SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
DESPITE SHEAR STILL PRESENT AND LIMITING. DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF
REDUCED SHEAR MONDAY, TALIAH INTENSITY COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WITHOUT HOWEVER REACHING THE
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD. THEREAFTER, THE LACK OF OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, THE INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR
PENETRATING MORE AND MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO
THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF TALIAH, WITH A LOSS OF ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161830
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.8 S / 79.1 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/02/2025 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 17/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 0

36H: 18/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SO: 315 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 0

48H: 18/02/2025 18 UTC: 31.4 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 55

60H: 19/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 0

72H: 19/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2025 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 110

120H: 21/02/2025 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 250

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
FAIBLE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DE TALIAH. LES PASSES ASCAT DE LA SOIREE
MONTRENT CEPENDANT QUE LES VENTS MAXIMAUX SONT ENCORE PROCHE DES 40KT
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE :
TALIAH CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
DEVIENT PLUS INCERTAINE A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE. UN
DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE EST DONC ATTENDU VERS 30S DE
LATITUDE, AVEC PLUSIEURS SCENARII DEPENDANT DE LA COMPETITION ENTRE
UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UN TALWEG CIRCULANT AU SUD.
CETTE SITUATION EST PARFAITEMENT ILLUSTREE PAR LE PANACHE DE
TRAJECTOIRES DES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU
CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES.

TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES MALGRE L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT TOUJOURS
PRESENT ET LIMITANT. A LA FAVEUR D'UNE COURTE PERIODE DE BAISSE DE
CISAILLEMENT LUNDI, L'INTENSITE DE TALIAH POURRAIT LEGEREMENT
REMONTER, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PLUS MARQUEE, SANS POUR AUTANT
ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE,
L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT ET
L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT QUI PENETRE DE PLUS EN PLUS AU NIVEAU DU COEUR
DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE TALIAH,
AVEC UNE PERTE DE CES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.


CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 161818
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.8 S / 79.1 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 150 NM AROUND THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 205 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/17 AT 06 UTC:
29.4 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/17 AT 18 UTC:
30.2 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.4 S / 80.3 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 111 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 520 SW: 350 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SW: 175 NW: 205

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/17 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 140

24H: 2025/02/17 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/18 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 390 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 75

48H: 2025/02/18 12 UTC: 31.8 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 100

60H: 2025/02/19 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/19 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 305 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/20 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

NO CHANGE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS: THE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE,
LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COMPLETELY CLEAR. WIND SHEAR IS
PRESENT AND STILL HIGH, ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSES. IN THE ABSENCE
OF RECENT OBJECTIVE DATA TO ESTIMATE WINDS, WINDS STAGNATE AT
40KT,LEAVING TALIAH AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IN A TROPICAL
CLASSIFICATION. HOWEVER, IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM HAS MORE
OF A POST-TROPICAL CHARACTER.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK: TALIAH CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM THIS SUNDAY EVENING ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD START TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, AND THE TRACK FORECAST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS IN A BAROMETRIC COLLAR SITUATION. A VERY SLOW TO
ERRATIC MOVEMENT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AROUND 30S LATITUDE, WITH
SEVERAL SCENARIOS DEPENDING ON THE COMPETITION BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH. THIS
SITUATION IS PERFECTLY ILLUSTRATED BY THE TRACK PLUMES OF THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS. ON THE TIME SCALES CURRENTLY COVERED, THE RSMC TRACK
PREDICTION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES AND
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE FOR THE WHOLE OF EPS AND GEFS, WITH AN
EXTENDED CONFIDENCE CONE IN RELATION TO CLIMATOLOGY. AS TALIAH IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION STAGE IN THE DISTANT
FUTURE, THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT YET COMPLETE.

TALIAH SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
SHEAR STILL PRESENT AND LIMITING. WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF REDUCED
SHEAR NEAR MONDAY, TALIAH INTENSITY COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WITHOUT REACHING THE SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD. THEREAFTER, THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL,
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR PENETRATING MORE
AND MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE
WEAKENING OF TALIAH, WITH A LOSS OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. AS
TALIAH IS EXPECTED TO BE AT THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION STAGE IN THE
DISTANT FUTURE, THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT YET COMPLETE.


THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161213
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.4 S / 80.3 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 111 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 520 SO: 350 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SO: 175 NO: 205

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/02/2025 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 140

24H: 17/02/2025 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 0

36H: 18/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 390 SO: 295 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 75

48H: 18/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.8 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 130 NO: 100

60H: 19/02/2025 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 0

72H: 19/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 305 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

STATU-QUO AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
QUASI-INEXISTANTE EST LOCALISEE LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD, LAISSANT LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES TOTALEMENT DEGAGEE. LE
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT EST BIEN PRESENT ET RESTE ENCORE ELEVE D'APRES
LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES OBJECTIVES RECENTES
POUR ESTIMER LES VENTS, LES VENTS STAGNENT A 40KT LAISSANT TALIAH AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DANS UNE CLASSIFICATION TROPICALE.
CEPENDANT DANS UN TEL ENVIRONNEMENT, LE SYSTEME PRESENTE PLUTOT DES
CARACTERISQUES POST-TROPICALES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE :
TALIAH CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE CE DIMANCHE EN SOIREE,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A RALENTIR SENSIBLEMENT ET LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT PLUS INCERTAINE A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC DES
FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL
BAROMETRIQUE. UN DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE EST DONC
ATTENDU VERS 30S DE LATITUDE, AVEC PLUSIEURS SCENARII DEPENDANT DE LA
COMPETITION ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UN TALWEG
CIRCULANT AU SUD. CETTE SITUATION EST PARFAITEMENT ILLUSTREE PAR LE
PANACHE DE TRAJECTOIRES DES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES. SUR LES ECHEANCES
ACTUELLEMENT COUVERTES, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS FAIT UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES ET RESTE PROCHE DE LA
MOYENNE DE L'ENSEMBLE DE L'EPS ET DE GEFS, AVEC UN CONE DE CONFIANCE
ELARGI PAR RAPPORT A LA CLIMATOLOGIE. A CES ECHEANCES LOINTAINES,
TALIAH DEVANT ETRE AU STADE DE DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE, LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE N'EST PAS COMPLETEE.

TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES SOUS L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT TOUJOURS PRESENT
ET LIMITANT. A LA FAVEUR D'UNE COURTE PERIODE DE BAISSE DE
CISAILLEMENT A ECHEANCE DE LUNDI, L'INTENSITE DE TALIAH POURRAIT
LEGEREMENT REMONTER, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PLUS MARQUEE, SANS
POUR AUTANT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. PAR LA
SUITE, L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, L'AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT ET L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT QUI PENETRE DE PLUS EN PLUS AU
NIVEAU DU COEUR DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEFINITIF DE TALIAH, AVEC UNE PERTE DE CES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES.


CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161200
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.4 S / 80.3 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 195 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/17 AT 00 UTC:
29.2 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/17 AT 12 UTC:
30.0 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 27.3S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.6S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.4S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.2S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 31.0S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.2S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 31.3S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 80.6E.
16FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1369 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 991 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160612
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3 S / 81.0 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 111 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 795 SW: 720 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SW: 370 NW: 215

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/16 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 520 SW: 400 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 100

24H: 2025/02/17 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 425 SW: 400 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/17 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/18 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 425 SW: 345 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 95

60H: 2025/02/18 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 445 SW: 380 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 110

72H: 2025/02/19 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/20 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE: CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WEAK TO MODERATE AND LOCALIZED FAR FROM THE CENTER
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS PATTERN CLEARLY SHOWS THE INFLUENCE
OF WIND SHEAR ON TALIAH. THE RCM-1 DATA FOR 0007UTC STILL SHOW
10-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 43KT, WITH THE PROPOSED LOCATION OF THE
CENTER TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST ON THE EDGE OF THE MOW. AS A RESULT,
AT 06UTC, TALIAH'S INTENSITY IS SET AT 40KT, LEAVING TALIAH AS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IN A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION. HOWEVER, IN
SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM HAS MORE OF A POST-TROPICAL
CHARACTER.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK: TALIAH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. FROM THIS SUNDAY EVENING ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO
SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, AND THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN
A BAROMETRIC COLLAR SITUATION. A VERY SLOW TO ERRATIC MOVEMENT IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED AROUND 30S LATITUDE, WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS
DEPENDING ON THE COMPETITION BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH. THIS SITUATION IS
PERFECTLY ILLUSTRATED BY THE TRACK PLUMES OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS. ON
THE TIME SCALES CURRENTLY COVERED, THE RSMC TRACK PREDICTION IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
AVERAGE FOR THE WHOLE OF EPS AND GEFS, WITH AN EXTENDED CONFIDENCE
CONE IN RELATION TO CLIMATOLOGY.

TALIAH SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
SHEAR STILL PRESENT AND LIMITING. WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF REDUCED
SHEAR NEAR MONDAY, TALIAH INTENSITY COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER, THE LACK OF OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, THE INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR
PENETRATING MORE AND MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO
THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF TALIAH, WITH A LOSS OF ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.


THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160612
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.3 S / 81.0 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 111 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 795 SO: 720 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SO: 370 NO: 215

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/02/2025 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 520 SO: 400 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 100

24H: 17/02/2025 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 425 SO: 400 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 0

36H: 17/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SO: 295 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 0

48H: 18/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 425 SO: 345 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 95

60H: 18/02/2025 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 445 SO: 380 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 110

72H: 19/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SO: 325 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 250 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SO: 110 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, IL N'Y A PAS EU BEAUCOUP D'EVOLUTION
: L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE RESTE FAIBLE A MODEREE ET LOCALISEE LOIN DU
CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CETTE CONFIGURATION MONTRE BIEN
L'INFLUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT QUI IMPACTE TALIAH. LES DONNEES
RCM-1 DE 0007UTC PERMETTENT DE NOTER ENCORE DES VENTS MOYENNES SUR 10
MIN DE 43KT, AVEC UNE LOCALISATION PROPOSEE DU CENTRE TROP AU
NORD-EST EN BORD DE FAUCHEE. DE CE FAIT, A 06UTC L'INTENSITE DE
TALIAH EST MISE A 40KT LAISSANT TALIAH AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE DANS UNE CLASSIFICATION TROPICALE. CEPENDANT DANS UN TEL
ENVIRONNEMENT, LE SYSTEME PRESENTE PLUTOT DES CARACTERISQUES
POST-TROPICALES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE : TALIAH CONTINUE
SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE A
L'EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE CE DIMANCHE EN SOIREE, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A RALENTIR SENSIBLEMENT ET LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT PLUS INCERTAINE A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE. UN
DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE EST DONC ATTENDU VERS 30S DE
LATITUDE, AVEC PLUSIEURS SCENARII DEPENDANT DE LA COMPETITION ENTRE
UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UN TALWEG CIRCULANT AU SUD.
CETTE SITUATION EST PARFAITEMENT ILLUSTREE PAR LE PANACHE DE
TRAJECTOIRES DES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES. SUR LES ECHEANCES ACTUELLEMENT
COUVERTES, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES ET RESTE PROCHE DE LA MOYENNE DE
L'ENSEMBLE DE L'EPS ET DE GEFS, AVEC UN CONE DE CONFIANCE ELARGI PAR
RAPPORT A LA CLIMATOLOGIE.

TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES SOUS L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT TOUJOURS PRESENT
ET LIMITANT. A LA FAVEUR D'UNE COURTE PERIODE DE BAISSE DE
CISAILLEMENT A ECHEANCE DE LUNDI, L'INTENSITE DE TALIAH POURRAIT
LEGEREMENT REMONTER, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PLUS MARQUEE. PAR
LA SUITE, L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, L'AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT ET L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT QUI PENETRE DE PLUS EN PLUS AU
NIVEAU DU COEUR DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEFINITIF DE TALIAH, AVEC UNE PERTE DE CES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES.


CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160559
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3 S / 81.0 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 235 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 210
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 225 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 430 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/16 AT 18 UTC:
28.7 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/17 AT 06 UTC:
29.5 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160018
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 81.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 795 SW: 720 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SW: 370 NW: 215

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/16 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 535 SW: 405 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 130

24H: 2025/02/17 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 405 SW: 520 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 75

36H: 2025/02/17 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/18 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 435 SW: 350 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/18 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 100

72H: 2025/02/19 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SW: 400 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/20 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/21 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TOTALLY BLOWN
AWAY BY POWERFUL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ESTIMATED BY CIMMS BETWEEN 25
AND 30K FROM THE NORTH-WEST. CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGERY THUS SHOWS AN
EXPOSED CONVECTION CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
EVACUATING A LARGE PLUME OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. THE
SYSTEM IS NOW CROSSING OVER COOL WATERS (24/25 DEGREES), AS EVIDENCED
BY THE NUMEROUS BUOYS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE RECENT
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ANALYSIS OF THE 1526Z ASCAT-B PASS ,
THE MEAN WIND SPEED MAY BE SLIGHTLY ATTENUATED TO 45KT, ALSO
CORRESPONDING TO THE LATEST MODEL ANALYSES IN THIS ELONGATED,
POST-TROPICAL-LIKE STRUCTURE. TALIAH IS LIKELY TO BE REANALYZED AS A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COULD RESUME WITHIN 24/36H; THE WIND STRUCTURE SHOULD THEN BECOME
MORE SYMMETRICAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWING A BRIEF PASSAGE
BELOW AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF. THE SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE BEEN
PUNCTUALLY DOWNGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FOR 45KT.

TALIAH MOVES SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY, AS A MOBILE RIDGE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY,
AND THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MUCH LESS CLEAR-CUT FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, WITH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A BAROMETRIC COLLAR
SITUATION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A VERY SLOW OR EVEN ERRATIC MOVEMENT
TOWARDS 30S LATITUDE. THE TRACK MAY IN FACT BE EITHER SOUTH-EASTERLY
OR WESTERLY, DEPENDING ON COMPETITION BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH-WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST. THIS
SITUATION IS PERFECTLY ILLUSTRATED BY RECENT OUTFLOWS FROM THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE, IN CONTRAST TO THE AMERICAN ENSEMBLE, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A CLEAR PREFERENCE FOR A WESTERLY MOVEMENT. ON
THE TIME SCALES CURRENTLY COVERED, THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDELINES, AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
AVERAGE FOR THE EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.

TALIAH IS SET TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WIND AND STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, DUE TO THE ONGOING BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, AND
ALSO THANKS TO A BURST OF TRADE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.
NEVERTHELESS, STRONG SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN POTENTIAL SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. ON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS BELOW
AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, WHICH COULD ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SHEAR DROPS AND A MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER,
FROM TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, AS THE CUT-OFF SHIFTS
EASTWARDS, THE INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM WEST TO SOUTH-WEST SHOULD LEAD
TO TALIAH'S DEFINITIVE WEAKENING.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160018
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.8 S / 81.8 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 795 SO: 720 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SO: 370 NO: 215

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/02/2025 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 535 SO: 405 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 130

24H: 17/02/2025 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 405 SO: 520 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 75

36H: 17/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SO: 305 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 0

48H: 18/02/2025 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 435 SO: 350 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 0

60H: 18/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 100

72H: 19/02/2025 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SO: 400 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 270 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SO: 110 NO: 0

120H: 21/02/2025 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SO: 230 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 110 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
TOTALEMENT SOUFFLEE SOUS L'EFFET D'UN PUISSANT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
DE VENT, ESTIME SELON LE CIMMS ENTRE 25 ET 30K DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST.
L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE PRESENTE AINSI UN CENTRE DE
CONVECTION EXPOSE AVEC UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE IMPORTANTE EVACUANT
UN IMPORTANT PANACHE DE CIRRUS DANS LE SECTEUR SUD. LE SYSTEME CROISE
DESORMAIS SUR DES EAUX FRAICHES (24/25 DEGRES), COMME EN TEMOIGNENT
LES NOMBREUSES BOUEES AUX ABORDS DU SYSTEME. AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION
RECENTE DE CELUI-CI ET DE L'ANALYSE DE LA PASSE ASCAT-B DE 1526Z, LE
VENT MOYEN PEUT ETRE LEGEREMENT ATTENUE A 45KT, CORRESPONDANT
EGALEMENT AUX DERNIERES ANALYSES MODELES DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION DE
STRUCTURE ALLONGEE S'APPARENTANT A UNE STRUCTURE POST-TROPICALE.
TALIAH SERA D'AILLEURS POSSIBLEMENT REANALYSEE EN DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE POUR CETTE JOURNEE DE SAMEDI. TOUTEFOIS, L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE POURRAIT REPRENDRE D'ICI 24/36H ; LA STRUCTURE DES VENTS
DEVRAIT ALORS REDEVENIR PLUS SYMETRIQUE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, SUITE A UN BREF PASSAGE SOUS UN CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE. LE
SYSTEME EST DONC RETROGRADE PONCTUELLEMENT AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICAE MODEREE POUR 45KT.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE
A L'EST DU SYSTEME. LE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER
PROGRESSIVEMENT D'ICI DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UNE DORSALE
MOBILE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
RALENTIR SENSIBLEMENT ET LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT
NETTEMENT MOINS EVIDENTE A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE, POUVANT
CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT TRES LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE VERS 30S DE
LATITUDE. LA TRAJECTOIRE PEUT EN EFFET S'ORIENTER SOIT VERS LE
SUD-EST SOIT VERS L'OUEST, DEPENDANT DE LA COMPETITION ENTRE UNE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UN TALWEG AU SUD PUIS SUD-EST.
CETTE SITUATION EST PARFAITEMENT ILLUSTREE PAR LES RECENTES SORTIES
DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN, CONTRAIREMENT A L'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN
PREVOYANT POUR LE MOMENT UNE NETTE PREFERENCE POUR UN MOUVEMENT VERS
L'OUEST. SUR LES ECHEANCES ACTUELLEMENT COUVERTES, LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES
ET RESTE PROCHE DE LA MOYENNE DE L'ENSEMBLE DE L'EPS ET DE GEFS.

TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT ET PROCHES
DE LA FORCE TEMPETE, DANS LES PROCHAINES 24/36 HEURES EN RAISON DE
L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE EN COURS, PUIS AUSSI GRACE A UNE POUSSEE
D'ALIZES CE WEEK-END EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE L'ANTICYCLONE AU
SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DU SYSTEME. NEANMOINS, LE CISAILLEMENT FORT ET LE
FAIBLE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIENT EMPECHER TOUTE INTENSIFICATION
SIGNIFICATIVE. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER SOUS UN CUT-OFF
D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION AVEC
LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET LE RETOUR D'UNE STRUCTURE PLUS
SYMETRIQUE. CEPENDANT DES MARDI SOIR ET SURTOUT MERCREDI, AVEC LE
DECALAGE DU CUT-OFF VERS L'EST, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A
SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE TALIAH.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160005
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 81.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 440 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 235 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 210
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 225 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 430 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/16 AT 12 UTC:
28.3 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 70 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/17 AT 00 UTC:
29.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 280 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 25.7S 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.0S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.3S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.3S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.1S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.2S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 31.4S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 82.2E.
15FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1145 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
151800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151817
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 82.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 795 SW: 720 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SW: 370 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 280 NW: 155

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/16 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 575 SW: 470 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 95

24H: 2025/02/16 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SW: 445 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 110

36H: 2025/02/17 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 405 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 150 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/17 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 455 SW: 325 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 155 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/18 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 445 SW: 305 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 75

72H: 2025/02/18 18 UTC: 31.4 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/19 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 360 SW: 350 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/20 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SW: 230 NW: 165

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TOTALLY BLOWN
AWAY BY POWERFUL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ESTIMATED BY CIMMS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30K FROM THE NORTH-WEST. CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGERY
THUS SHOWS AN EXPOSED CONVECTION CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER
DIVERGENCE, EVACUATING A LARGE PLUME OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR. THE SYSTEM IS NOW CROSSING COOL WATERS (24/25 DEGREES), AS
EVIDENCED BY THE NUMEROUS BUOYS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE
1526Z ASCAT-B PASS FEATURES AN ELONGATED LOW-LAYER STRUCTURE WITH
FAIRLY ASYMMETRICAL WIND EXTENSIONS. THE MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND SPEED
DEBIASED PROVIDE A RELIABLE ESTIMATE OF STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. IN VIEW OF THE ELONGATED SURFACE
WIND STRUCTURE, TALIAH IS LIKELY TO BE REANALYZED AS A POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RESUME,
WHILE THE WIND STRUCTURE SHOULD BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE CURRENTLY MAINTAINED AT THE SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM FOR 50KT.

TALIAH MOVES SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY, AS A MOBILE RIDGE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY, AND THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MUCH LESS CLEAR-CUT
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A
BAROMETRIC COLLAR SITUATION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A VERY SLOW OR EVEN
ERRATIC MOVEMENT TOWARDS 30S LATITUDE. THE TRACK MAY IN FACT BE
EITHER SOUTH-EASTERLY OR WESTERLY, DEPENDING ON COMPETITION BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTH-EAST. THIS SITUATION IS PERFECTLY ILLUSTRATED BY RECENT
OUTFLOWS FROM THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE, IN CONTRAST TO THE AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING A CLEAR PREFERENCE FOR A
WESTERLY MOVEMENT. ON THE TIME SCALES CURRENTLY COVERED, THE RSMC
TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDELINES, AND
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE FOR THE EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.

TALIAH IS SET TO MAINTAIN NEAR-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, DUE TO THE ONGOING BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, AND ALSO THANKS TO
A BURST OF TRADE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN POTENTIAL SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. ON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS BELOW AN
UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, WHICH COULD ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SHEAR DROPS AND A MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER,
FROM TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, AS THE CUT-OFF SHIFTS
EASTWARDS, THE INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM WEST TO SOUTH-WEST SHOULD LEAD
TO TALIAH'S DEFINITIVE WEAKENING.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151817
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/9/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.1 S / 82.8 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 795 SO: 720 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SO: 370 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 280 NO: 155

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/02/2025 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 575 SO: 470 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 95

24H: 16/02/2025 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SO: 445 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 110

36H: 17/02/2025 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 405 SO: 325 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 150 NO: 0

48H: 17/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 455 SO: 325 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 155 NO: 0

60H: 18/02/2025 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 445 SO: 305 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 75

72H: 18/02/2025 18 UTC: 31.4 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SO: 305 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 360 SO: 350 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 0

120H: 20/02/2025 18 UTC: 31.9 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SO: 230 NO: 165

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A ETE
TOTALEMENT SOUFFLEE SOUS L'EFFET D'UN PUISSANT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
DE VENT, ESTIME SELON LE CIMMS ENTRE 25 ET 30K DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST.
L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE PRESENTE AINSI UN CENTRE DE
CONVECTION EXPOSE AVEC UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE IMPORTANTE EVACUANT
UN IMPORTANT PANACHE DE CIRRUS DANS LE SECTEUR SUD. LE SYSTEME CROISE
DESORMAIS SUR DES EAUX FRAICHES (24/25 DEGRES), COMME EN TEMOIGNENT
LES NOMBREUSES BOUEES AUX ABORDS DU SYSTEME. LA PASSE ASCAT-B DE
1526Z PRESENTE UNE STRUCTURE DE BASSES COUCHES ALLONGA E AVEC DES
EXTENSIONS DE VENTS ASSEZ DISSYMETRIQUES. LES VENTS MOYENS MAXIMUM
DEBIAISES PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER DE FAA ON FIABLE DES VENTS DE FORCE
TEMPETE DANS LE DEMI-CERLCE OUEST DU SYSTEME. AU VU DE LA STRUCTURE
ALLONGEE DES VENTS EN SURFACE, TALIAH SERA POSSIBLEMENT REANALYSEE EN
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE POUR CETTE JOURNEE DE SAMEDI. TOUTEFOIS,
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE POURRAIT REPRENDRE TANDIS QUE LA STRUCTURE DES
VENTS DEVRAIT REDEVENIR PLUS SYMETRIQUE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE. LE SYSTEME EST DONC MAINTENU A L'HEURE ACTUELLE AU STADE
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE POUR 50KT.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD PUIS SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. LE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER
PROGRESSIVEMENT D'ICI DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UNE DORSALE
MOBILE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
RALENTIR SENSIBLEMENT ET LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DEVIENT
NETTEMENT MOINS EVIDENTE A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE, POUVANT
CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT TRES LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE VERS 30S DE
LATITUDE. LA TRAJECTOIRE PEUT EN EFFET S'ORIENTER SOIT VERS LE
SUD-EST SOIT VERS L'OUEST, DEPENDANT DE LA COMPETITION ENTRE UNE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UN TALWEG AU SUD PUIS SUD-EST.
CETTE SITUATION EST PARFAITEMENT ILLUSTREE PAR LES RECENTES SORTIES
DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN, CONTRAIREMENT A L'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN
PREVOYANT POUR LE MOMENT UNE NETTE PREFERENCE POUR UN MOUVEMENT VERS
L'OUEST. SUR LES ECHEANCES ACTUELLEMENT COUVERTES, LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES
ET RESTE PROCHE DE LA MOYENNE DE L'ENSEMBLE DE L'EPS ET DE GEFS.

TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS PROCHES DE LA FORCE TEMPETE, DANS
LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES EN RAISON DE L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE EN
COURS, PUIS AUSSI GRACE A UNE POUSSEE D'ALIZES CE WEEK-END EN LIEN
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE L'ANTICYCLONE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DU
SYSTEME. NEANMOINS, LE CISAILLEMENT FORT ET LE FAIBLE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE DEVRAIENT EMPECHER TOUTE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE.
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER SOUS UN CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI
POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION AVEC LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET LE RETOUR D'UNE STRUCTURE PLUS SYMETRIQUE. CEPENDANT
DES MARDI SOIR ET SURTOUT MERCREDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DU CUT-OFF VERS
L'EST, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT CONDUIRE
A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE TALIAH.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151808
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 82.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 85
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 235 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 210
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 225 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 430 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
27.2 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 310 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/16 AT 18 UTC:
28.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 82.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 585 SW: 585 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 390 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 210 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/16 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 600 SW: 520 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 220

24H: 2025/02/16 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SW: 445 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/17 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 370 SW: 445 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 120

48H: 2025/02/17 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/18 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 415 SW: 335 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/18 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SW: 325 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/19 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 20 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 20

120H: 2025/02/20 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED WEAK NEAR THE
CENTER, DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR INTRUSION AND
DECLINING OCEANIC POTENTIAL (SST BELOW 26C).THE 0831Z AMSR2 PASS
STILL SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS THE INTENSITY WAS
THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT 55KT. IN VIEW OF THE ELONGATED SURFACE WIND
STRUCTURE, TALIAH WILL BE POSSIBLY REANALYZED AS A POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RESUME,
WHILE THE WIND STRUCTURE SHOULD BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE SYSTEM
IS THEREFORE CURRENTLY MAINTAINED AT THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MOVEMENT IS SET TO
ACCELERATE AGAIN BY SUNDAY IN RELATION WITH AN ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO
THE SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX,
WITH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A COL SITUATION, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A SLOW OR EVEN ERRATIC MOVEMENT NEAR 30S. THE TRACK COULD
ACTUALLY TURN EITHER TO THE SOUTH-EAST OR TO THE WEST, DEPENDING ON
COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH-EAST. THE RSMC TRACK
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS.

TALIAH SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
DUE TO BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, AND ALSO THANKS TO A BURST OF TRADE
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ANTICYCLONE STRENGTHENS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS, THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. AROUND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS UNDER AN
UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, WHICH COULD ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SHEAR DECREASES AND A MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE RETURNS.
HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
CUT-OFF SHIFTS EASTWARDS, THE INCREASE OF WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO TALIAH'S DEFINITIVE WEAKENING.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151233
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/9/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 82.8 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 585 SO: 585 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SO: 390 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 210 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 600 SO: 520 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 315 NO: 220

24H: 16/02/2025 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SO: 445 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 0

36H: 17/02/2025 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 370 SO: 445 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 120

48H: 17/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SO: 335 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 0

60H: 18/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 415 SO: 335 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 0

72H: 18/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SO: 325 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2025 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 20 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 20

120H: 20/02/2025 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
TRES FAIBLE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE, EN RAISON DU FORT CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST, DE L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC ET DE LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE (SST SOUS LES 26C). LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 0831Z SUGGERE ENCORE
LA PRESENCE DE VENT DE FORCE TEMPETE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC MAINTENUE
A 55KT. AU VU DE LA STRUCTURE ALLONGEE DES VENTS EN SURFACE, TALIAH
SERA POSSIBLEMENT REANALYSEE EN DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE POUR LA
JOURNEE. TOUTEFOIS, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE POURRAIT REPRENDRE TANDIS
QUE LA STRUCTURE DES VENTS DEVRAIT REDEVENIR PLUS SYMETRIQUE. LE
SYSTEME EST DONC MAINTENU A L'HEURE ACTUELLE AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. LE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER
PROGRESSIVEMENT D'ICI DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UN
ANTICYCLONE MOBILE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA PREVISION DEVIENT
PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE
SITUATION DE COL, POUVANT CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE
ERRATIQUE PRES DE 30S. LA TRAJECTOIRE PEUT EN EFFET S'ORIENTER SOIT
VERS LE SUD-EST SOIT VERS L'OUEST, DEPENDANT DE LA COMPETITION ENTRE
UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UN TALWEG AU SUD PUIS
SUD-EST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE
LES DIFFERENTS MODELES.

TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS PROCHE DE LA FORCE TEMPETE, DANS
LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES EN RAISON DE L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE, PUIS
AUSSI GRACE A UNE POUSSEE D'ALIZES CE WEEK-END EN LIEN AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DE L'ANTICYCLONE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DU SYSTEME.
NEANMOINS, LE CISAILLEMENT FORT ET LE FAIBLE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVRAIENT EMPECHER TOUTE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. AUTOUR DE
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER SOUS UN CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI
POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION AVEC LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET LE RETOUR D'UNE STRUCTURE PLUS SYMETRIQUE. CEPENDANT
DES MARDI SOIR ET SURTOUT MERCREDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DU CUT-OFF VERS
L'EST, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT CONDUIRE
A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE TALIAH.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151220
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 82.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
105 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 315 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/16 AT 00 UTC:
26.7 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 325 NM SW: 280 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 120 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/16 AT 12 UTC:
28.2 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 25.2S 83.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 83.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 26.1S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.5S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.6S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.4S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 31.0S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.1S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 83.3E.
15FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1088 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (ZELIA) FINAL
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/9/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 83.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 210 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/15 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 565 SW: 500 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85

24H: 2025/02/16 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 535 SW: 435 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/16 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 405 SW: 415 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 130

48H: 2025/02/17 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/17 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/18 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/19 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/20 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ONCE AGAIN COLLAPSED
NEAR THE CENTER, DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR INTRUSION
AND DECLINING OCEANIC POTENTIAL (SST BELOW 26C). LAST HOURS' ASCAT
SAR AND SMOS PASSES NEVERTHELESS SHOW A STRENGTHENING OF WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, PROBABLY DUE TO THE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN RAISED TO
55KT. IN VIEW OF THE ELONGATED SURFACE WIND STRUCTURE, TALIAH WILL BE
POSSIBLY REANALYZED AS A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 6Z. HOWEVER,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RESUME, WHILE THE WIND STRUCTURE SHOULD
BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE CURRENTLY MAINTAINED
AT THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A SLOW FORWARD SPEED
DUE TO AN OTHER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH PASSING TO THE
SOUTH-EAST. MOVEMENT IS SET TO ACCELERATE AGAIN BY SUNDAY IN RELATION
WITH AN ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX, WITH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A
COL SITUATION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLOW OR EVEN ERRATIC MOVEMENT
NEAR 30S. THE TRACK COULD ACTUALLY TURN EITHER TO THE SOUTH-EAST OR
TO THE WEST, DEPENDING ON COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES FROM A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTH-EAST. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS.

TALIAH SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
DUE TO BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, AND ALSO THANKS TO A BURST OF TRADE
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ANTICYCLONE STRENGTHENS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS, THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. AROUND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS UNDER AN
UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, WHICH COULD ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SHEAR DECREASES AND A MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE RETURNS.
HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
CUT-OFF SHIFTS EASTWARDS, THE INCREASE OF WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO TALIAH'S DEFINITIVE WEAKENING.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150645
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.2 S / 83.4 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 210 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2025 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 565 SO: 500 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 85

24H: 16/02/2025 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 535 SO: 435 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 0

36H: 16/02/2025 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 405 SO: 415 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 130

48H: 17/02/2025 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 0

60H: 17/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 0

72H: 18/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 130 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 0

120H: 20/02/2025 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST A
NOUVEAU EFFONDREE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE, EN RAISON DU FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, DE L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC ET DE LA BAISSE
DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE (SST SOUS LES 26C). LES PASSES ASCAT SAR ET
SMOS DES DERNIERES HEURES TEMOIGNENT MALGRE TOUT D'UN RENFORCEMENT
DES VENTS DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST, PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC
L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE DUE AU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. L'INTENSITE A DONC
ETE REHAUSSEE A 55KT. AU VU DE LA STRUCTURE ALLONGEE DES VENTS EN
SURFACE, TALIAH SERA POSSIBLEMENT REANALYSEE EN DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE A 6Z. TOUTEFOIS, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE POURRAIT
REPRENDRE TANDIS QUE LA STRUCTURE DES VENTS DEVRAIT REDEVENIR PLUS
SYMETRIQUE. LE SYSTEME EST DONC MAINTENU A L'HEURE ACTUELLE AU STADE
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, AVEC UN MOUVEMENT LENT EN RAISON
DE LA PRESENCE D'UNE AUTRE DORSALE A L'OUEST ET D'UN TALWEG PASSANT
AU SUD-EST. LE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER PROGRESSIVEMENT D'ICI
DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UN ANTICYCLONE MOBILE AU SUD. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL, POUVANT
CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE PRES DE 30S. LA
TRAJECTOIRE PEUT EN EFFET S'ORIENTER SOIT VERS LE SUD-EST SOIT VERS
L'OUEST, DEPENDANT DE LA COMPETITION ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
AU SUD-OUEST ET UN TALWEG AU SUD PUIS SUD-EST. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES.

TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS PROCHE DE LA FORCE TEMPETE, DANS
LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES EN RAISON DE L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE, PUIS
AUSSI GRACE A UNE POUSSEE D'ALIZES CE WEEK-END EN LIEN AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DE L'ANTICYCLONE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DU SYSTEME.
NEANMOINS, LE CISAILLEMENT FORT ET LE FAIBLE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVRAIENT EMPECHER TOUTE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE. AUTOUR DE
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER SOUS UN CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI
POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION AVEC LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET LE RETOUR D'UNE STRUCTURE PLUS SYMETRIQUE. CEPENDANT
DES MARDI SOIR ET SURTOUT MERCREDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DU CUT-OFF VERS
L'EST, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT CONDUIRE
A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DE TALIAH.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150613
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 83.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
26.0 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 270 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
27.5 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 83.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SW: 480 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/15 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 490 SW: 500 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 110

24H: 2025/02/16 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 535 SW: 480 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110

36H: 2025/02/16 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 490 SW: 435 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/17 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 390 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 110

60H: 2025/02/17 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/18 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/19 00 UTC: 31.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/20 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ACTIVE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND HAS CONTINUED TO GET NEARER TO THE SYSTEM'S
CENTER, WHICH HAS REMAINED LESS THAN 30 NM FROM THE EDGE OF THE CDO,
EVEN TEMPORARILY PASSING SLIGHTLY BENEATH IT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS GIVES A DT OF 3.0 BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN. THE IMPROVING
CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT WINDS HAVE PROBABLY PICKED UP A BIT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, WHERE
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE VERY LIKELY FOLLOWING ON FROM THE 1641Z ASCAT-C
PASS, WHICH SHOWED WINDS ALREADY CLOSE TO THIS THRESHOLD. THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 50 KT AT 00UTC.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A SLOW FORWARD SPEED
DUE TO AN OTHER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH PASSING TO THE
SOUTH-EAST. MOVEMENT IS SET TO ACCELERATE AGAIN BY SUNDAY IN RELATION
WITH AN ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX, WITH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN A
COL SITUATION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLOW OR EVEN ERRATIC MOVEMENT
NEAR 30AO SOUTH. THE TRACK COULD ACTUALLY TURN EITHER TO THE
SOUTH-EAST OR TO THE WEST, DEPENDING ON COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES
FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
THEN SOUTH-EAST. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
VARIOUS MODELS.

TALIAH SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THIS SATURDAY THANKS TO GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO A JET TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND
ALSO THANKS TO A SURGE OF TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS THE ANTICYCLONE
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS, MODERATE TO
FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD SOMEHOW
LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL. AROUND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, WHICH COULD POSSIBLY INTENSIFY IT
AGAIN SLIGHTLY THROUGH BAROCLINIC-LIKE PROCESSES MORE TYPICAL OF A
SUBTROPICAL STORM, ALLOWING CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
MORE SYMMETRICAL. FROM TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, AS
THE CUT-OFF SHIFTS EASTWARDS, THE INCREASING WESTERLY TO
SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INJECT DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S CORE,
LEADING TO ITS FINAL WEAKENING.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/9/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.9 S / 83.8 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SO: 480 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 260 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 140 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2025 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 490 SO: 500 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 140 NO: 110

24H: 16/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 535 SO: 480 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110

36H: 16/02/2025 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 490 SO: 435 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 0

48H: 17/02/2025 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 390 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 110

60H: 17/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 305 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 0

72H: 18/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/02/2025 00 UTC: 31.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0

120H: 20/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST
MAINTENUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET A CONTINUE A SE RAPPROCHER DU
CENTRE DU SYSTEME, QUI EST RESTE A MOINS DE 30 MN DE LA BORDURE DU
CDO, PASSANT MEME TEMPORAIREMENT SOUS LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN DT A 3.0 EN CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE.
L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE SUGGERE UNE PROBABLE
INTENSIFICATION DES VENTS, NOTAMMENT DANS LA PARTIE SUD-OUEST DE LA
CIRCULATION OU DE LA TEMPETE EST TRES PROBABLE, DANS LA CONTINUITE DE
LA PASSE ASCAT-C DE 1641Z QUI MONTRAIT DES VENTS DEJA PROCHES DE CE
SEUIL. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST DONC ESTIMEE A 50 KT A 00UTC.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, AVEC UN MOUVEMENT LENT EN RAISON
DE LA PRESENCE D'UNE AUTRE DORSALE A L'OUEST ET D'UN TALWEG PASSANT
AU SUD-EST. LE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER PROGRESSIVEMENT D'ICI
DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UN ANTICYCLONE MOBILE AU SUD. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE COL, POUVANT
CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE PRES DU 30E SUD. LA
TRAJECTOIRE PEUT EN EFFET S'ORIENTER SOIT VERS LE SUD-EST SOIT VERS
L'OUEST, DEPENDANT DE LA COMPETITION ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
AU SUD-OUEST ET UN TALWEG AU SUD PUIS SUD-EST. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES.

TALIAH DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER LEGEREMENT CE SAMEDI GRACE A
UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN MARGE D'UNE ENTREE DE JET AU
SUD-EST, PUIS AUSSI GRACE A UNE POUSSEE D'ALIZES CE WEEK-END EN LIEN
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE L'ANTICYCLONE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DU
SYSTEME. NEANMOINS, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A ASSEZ FORT ET UN FAIBLE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIENT RENDRE CETTE INTENSIFICATION LIMITEE ET
TEMPORAIRE. AUTOUR DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER SOUS UN
CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI POURRAIT POSSIBLEMENT DE NOUVEAU
L'INTENSIFIER LEGEREMENT PAR DES PROCESSUS QUASI-BAROCLINES ET PLUS
TYPIQUES D'UNE TEMPETE SUBTROPICALE, PERMETTANT UNE MEILLEURE
SYMETRISATION DE LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MARDI
SOIR ET SURTOUT MERCREDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DU CUT-OFF VERS L'EST, LA
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT INJECTER DE L'AIR
SEC SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME ET CONDUIRE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEFINITIF.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150015
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 83.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 75
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/15 AT 12 UTC:
25.6 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 265 NM SW: 270 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/16 AT 00 UTC:
26.8 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 24.5S 83.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 83.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.1S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.9S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.2S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.5S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.9S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.1S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 83.6E.
14FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1170 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS OF KEY WEST,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT
AT 141800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (ZELIA) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 84.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 425 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 250 NW: 185

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/15 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SW: 480 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 270 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/15 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SW: 510 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 100

36H: 2025/02/16 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 510 SW: 470 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 0

48H: 2025/02/16 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 405 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 140

60H: 2025/02/17 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/17 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/18 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/19 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN
THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHILE INCHING NEARER TO THE
CENTER, WITH THE EDGE OF THE CDO LESS THAN 45 NM FROM THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A DT OF 2.5 BASED ON A SHEAR
PATTERN. A 1641Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS WINDS UP TO 42 KT IN THE
SOUTH-WEST QUADRANT (CORRESPONDING TO ACTUAL WINDS OF AT LEAST 45-48
KT). A SMOS PASS AROUND 12Z MEASURED WINDS OF 47 KT. THE SYSTEM'S
FINAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 45 KT, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT LOCALLY UNDER THE
CONVECTION AREA.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
RIDGE OF MID- TO LOW-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE STRENGTHENING OF ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH PASSING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HAVE SLOWED THE MOVEMENT THIS FRIDAY. MOVEMENT IS
SET TO ACCELERATE AGAIN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, DUE TO AN
ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX, WITH POSSIBLE CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS IN A COL SITUATION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLOW OR EVEN
ERRATIC MOVEMENT NEAR 30AO SOUTH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION, ILLUSTRATING THIS UNCERTAINTY. IN FACT,
THERE ARE TWO MAIN POSSIBILITIES BEYOND TUESDAY: EITHER A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, OR A WESTWARD TURN. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
COMPETITION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE TO THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-EAST. THE RSMC
TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS.

TALIAH IS SET TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE SHORT TERM THANKS TO GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO A JET PASSING SOUTH THEN SOUTH-EAST, AND ALSO
THANKS TO A SURGE OF TRADE WINDS ON SATURDAY AS THE ANTICYCLONE
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS,
MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD
MAKE THIS INTENSIFICATION TEMPORARY. AROUND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, WHICH COULD POSSIBLY INTENSIFY IT
AGAIN SLIGHTLY THROUGH BAROCLINIC-LIKE PROCESSES MORE TYPICAL OF A
SUBTROPICAL STORM, ALLOWING CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
MORE SYMMETRICAL. FROM TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, AS
THE CUT-OFF SHIFTS EASTWARDS, THE INCREASING WESTERLY TO
SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INJECT DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S CORE,
LIKELY LEADING TO ITS FINAL WEAKENING.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141838
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.6 S / 84.0 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 425 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 250 NO: 185

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2025 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SO: 480 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 270 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 15/02/2025 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SO: 510 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 100

36H: 16/02/2025 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 510 SO: 470 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 0

48H: 16/02/2025 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 405 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 140

60H: 17/02/2025 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 17/02/2025 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/02/2025 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 0

120H: 19/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A CONTINUE A
SE RENFORCER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME TOUT EN SE
RAPPROCHANT DU CENTRE, AVEC UNE BORDURE DU CDO A MOINS DE 45 MN DU
CENTRE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN DT A 2.5 EN
CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE. UNE PASSE ASCAT-C A 1641Z MONTRE DES VENTS
JUSQU'A 42 KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST (CORRESPONDANT A DES VENTS
REELS D'AU MOINS 45-48 KT). UNE PASSE SMOS VERS 12Z A MESURE DES
VENTS DE 47 KT. L'INTENSITE FINALE DU SYSTEME EST DONC AUGMENTEE A 45
KT, MAIS IL EST POSSIBLE QUE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE SOIENT DEJA
PRESENTS LOCALEMENT SOUS LA CONVECTION.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET BASSE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE AUTRE DORSALE A L'OUEST AINSI QU'UN TALWEG PASSANT
AU SUD-EST ONT INDUIT UN RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT CE VENDREDI. LE
DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DE NOUVEAU ENTRE SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE
EN LIEN AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UN ANTICYCLONE MOBILE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC
DE POSSIBLES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES DANS UNE SITUATION DE
COL, POUVANT CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE ERRATIQUE PRES DU 30E
SUD. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES MONTRENT ENCORE UNE FORTE DISPERSION,
ILLUSTRANT CETTE INCERTITUDE. EN EFFET, IL Y A PRINCIPALEMENT DEUX
POSSIBILITES AU DELA DE MARDI : SOIT UN RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST,
SOIT UN RECOURBEMENT VERS L'OUEST. CELA DEPENDRA DE LA COMPETITION
ENTRE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DU
SYSTEME ET DU TALWEG PRESENT AU SUD-EST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES.

TALIAH DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER LEGEREMENT A COURT TERME GRACE A UN
REGAIN DE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN MARGE D'UNE ENTREE DE JET AU SUD
PUIS SUD-EST, PUIS AUSSI GRACE A UNE POUSSEE D'ALIZES EN JOURNEE DE
SAMEDI EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE L'ANTICYCLONE AU SUD-OUEST
PUIS SUD DU SYSTEME. NEANMOINS, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE A ASSEZ FORT
ET UN FAIBLE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIENT RENDRE CETTE
INTENSIFICATION TEMPORAIRE. AUTOUR DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PASSER SOUS UN CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI POURRAIT POSSIBLEMENT DE
NOUVEAU L'INTENSIFIER LEGEREMENT PAR DES PROCESSUS QUASI-BAROCLINES
ET PLUS TYPIQUES D'UNE TEMPETE SUBTROPICALE, PERMETTANT UNE MEILLEURE
SYMETRISATION DE LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MARDI
SOIR ET SURTOUT MERCREDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DU CUT-OFF VERS L'EST, LA
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT INJECTER DE L'AIR
SEC SUR LE COEUR DU SYSTEME ET PROBABLEMENT CONDUIRE A SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 141826
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 84.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/15 AT 06 UTC:
25.3 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
26.1 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 275 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141314 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 84.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/15 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 445 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/15 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 510 SW: 465 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/16 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 510 SW: 415 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85

48H: 2025/02/16 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 350 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 75

60H: 2025/02/17 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75

72H: 2025/02/17 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/18 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/19 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHILE MOVING CLOSER TO THE CENTER, AS
INITIALLY FORECAST, DESPITE RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (LOW OCEANIC POTENTIAL WITH SURFACE WATERS JUST EQUAL TO
26 DEGREES, MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE ORDER OF
25/30KT FROM THE NORTHWEST). THIS RECOVERY IS EXPLAINED BY A
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
FAVORING ASCENDANCES AT THE WARM ENTRANCE TO THE JET. THIS PARTICULAR
CONTEXT COMPENSATES FOR THE GRADUAL LOSS OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WHICH
HAS FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TALIAH INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS FIXED AT 40KT FOR INERTIA, DUE TO THE INTENSITY DATA
TRANSMITTED BY THE ASCAT-C AT 0414 UTC, THE VARIOUS HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL ANALYSES AND THE RECENT RESUMPTION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT,
WHICH HAS ENABLED SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES TO BE RELAUNCHED IN A
SHEAR CONTEXT.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
RIDGE OF MID- AND LOW-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN AOR, COMPLETED BY THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NEW RIDGE TO THE WEST, AS WELL AS A TROUGH
SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH, ARE BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND A MOBILE RIDGE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE COMPLEX, WITH POSSIBLE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT COULD
LEAD TO SLOW OR EVEN ERRATIC MOVEMENT NEAR THE SOUTHERN 30TH. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION, ILLUSTRATING
THIS UNCERTAINTY. IN FACT, TWO POSSIBILITIES ARE EMERGING BEYOND
TUESDAY: EITHER A SOUTHEASTWARD BEND, OR A WESTWARD BEND. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE COMPETITION BETWEEN THE RESUMPTION OF TRADE WINDS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE, AND
THE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE LATTER. THE RSMC TRACK
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, REMAINING A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE IFS SCENARIO.

TALIAH IS NOW SET TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE SHORT TERM, DESPITE
A RISING OCEANIC SUBSTRATUM AND RELATIVE SHEAR. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR
SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER AND AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
CONVECTION SHOULD THUS PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, KEEPING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO A MINIMUM. THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD
FLUCTUATE THROUGH TO MONDAY, FIRSTLY AS A RESULT OF THE MECHANICAL
PUSH FROM THE TRADE WINDS, THEN AS A RESULT OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER CUT-OFF SETTING IN OVER THE CENTER. AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, TALIAH COULD BEHAVE LIKE A SUBTROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM, DUE
TO THE NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC EXCHANGES WITHIN THE INTERNAL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141314 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.3 S / 84.3 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS
EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2025 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 445 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 65

24H: 15/02/2025 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 510 SO: 465 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 16/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 510 SO: 415 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85

48H: 16/02/2025 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SO: 350 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 75

60H: 17/02/2025 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SO: 325 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 75

72H: 17/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0

120H: 19/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST
REDEVELOPPEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME, TOUT EN SE
RAPPROCHANT DU CENTRE, COMME CELA ETAIT PRESSENTI INITIALEMENT, ET CE
MALGRE DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ PEU FAVORABLES (FAIBLE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AVEC DES EAUX DE SURFACE TOUT JUSTE EGALES A 26
DEGRES, UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT JUGE MODERE A FORT DE
L'ORDRE DE 25/30KT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST). CETTE REPRISE S'EXPLIQUEE
PAR UNE INTERACTION BAROCLINE, EN MARGE EST D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
FAVORISANT LES ASCENDANCES EN ENTREE CHAUDE DE JET. CE CONTEXTE
PARTICULIER COMPENSE AINSI DE FAIT LA PERTE PROGRESSIVE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE SENSIBLE DEPUIS CES DERNIERES 24 HEURES.
L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE DE TALIAH RESTE FIXEE A 40KT PAR INERTIE,
EN RAISON DES DONNEES DE L'INTENSITE TRANSMISE PAR L'ASCAT-C DE 0414
UTC, DES DIFFERENTES ANALYSES MODELES HAUTE RESOLUTION AINSI QUE DE
LA REPRISE RECENTE DU DEVELOPPEMENT DE LA CONVECTION, QUI A PERMIS DE
RELANCER LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DVORAK EN CONTEXTE CISAILLE.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET BASSE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME.LE
GLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE VERS LE BASSIN AUSTRALIEN, COMPLETE PAR
LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE A L'OUEST, AINSI QU'UN TALWEG
PASSANT PLUS AU SUD, COMMENCENT A INDUIRE UN RALENTISSEMENT DU
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DE NOUVEAU
ENTRE SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG ET LE
PASSAGE D'UNE DORSALE MOBILE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DE POSSIBLES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES POUVANT CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE
ERRATIQUES PRES DU 30E SUD. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES MONTRENT ENCORE
UNE FORTE DISPERSION, ILLUSTRANT CETTE INCERTITUDE. EN EFFET, DEUX
POSSIBILITES SE DESSINENT AU DELA DE MARDI : SOIT UN RECOURBEMENT
VERS LE SUD-EST, SOIT UN RECOURBEMENT VERS L'OUEST. CELA DEPENDRA DE
LA COMPETITION ENTRE LA REPRISE DES ALIZES EN BORDURE EST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ET DU THALWEG
PRESENT SUR LE BORD SUD-EST DE CETTE DERNIERE. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES,
EN RESTANT UN PEU PLUS PROCHE DU SCENARIO IFS.

TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENANT SE RE-INTENSIFIER LEGEREMENT A COURT TERME
MALGRE UN SUBSTRAT OCEANIQUE ET UN CISAILLEMENT RELATIF EN HAUSSE. DE
PLUS L'AIR SEC DEVRAIT RESTER PERSISTANT, SUR ET AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE
BASSES COUCHES. LA CONVECTION DEVRAIT AINSI RESISTER DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET ENTRETENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT AU
MINIMUM. LE REGAIN D'INTENSITE POURRAIT FLUCTUER JUSQU'A LUNDI,
D'ABORD EN LIEN AVEC LA POUSSEE MECANIQUE LIEE AU REGIME DES ALIZES,
PUIS SOUS L'EFFET DE L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE AVEC LE CUT-OFF
D'ALTITUDE SE METTANT EN PLACE AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE. EN FIN DE
PERIODE, TALIAH POURRAIT SE COMPORTER COMME UNE TEMPETE DE NATURE
SUBTROPICALE OU A CARACTERE HYBRIDE DU FAIT DE LA NATURE DES ECHANGES
THERMODYNAMIQUES AU SEIN DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE DU SYSTEME.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141249
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 84.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/15 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 445 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/15 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 510 SW: 465 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/16 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 510 SW: 415 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85

48H: 2025/02/16 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 350 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 75

60H: 2025/02/17 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75

72H: 2025/02/17 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/18 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/19 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHILE MOVING CLOSER TO THE CENTER, AS
INITIALLY FORECAST, DESPITE RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (LOW OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL WITH SURFACE WATERS JUST EQUAL
TO 26 DEGREES, MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE ORDER OF
25/30KT FROM THE NORTHWEST). THIS RECOVERY IS EXPLAINED BY THE COLD
UPPER AIR APPLIED ABOVE THE VAST LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION,
MADE POSSIBLE BY THE SLIDING OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX WITHIN A WIDE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PARTICULAR THERMIC CONTEXT COMPENSATES FOR
THE GRADUAL LOSS OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE TALIAH INTENSITY ESTIMATE
REMAINS FIXED AT 40KT BY INERTIA, DUE TO THE INTENSITY DATA
TRANSMITTED BY THE ASCAT-C AT 0414 UTC, THE VARIOUS HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL ANALYSES AND THE RECENT RESUMPTION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT,
WHICH HAS ENABLED SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES TO BE RELAUNCHED IN A
SHEAR CONTEXT.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
RIDGE OF MID- AND LOW-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN AOR, COMPLETED BY THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NEW RIDGE TO THE WEST, AS WELL AS A TROUGH
SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH, ARE BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND A MOBILE RIDGE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE COMPLEX, WITH POSSIBLE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT COULD
LEAD TO SLOW OR EVEN ERRATIC MOVEMENT NEAR THE SOUTHERN 30TH. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION, ILLUSTRATING
THIS UNCERTAINTY. IN FACT, TWO POSSIBILITIES ARE EMERGING BEYOND
TUESDAY: EITHER A SOUTHEASTWARD BEND, OR A WESTWARD BEND. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE COMPETITION BETWEEN THE RESUMPTION OF TRADE WINDS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE, AND
THE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE LATTER. THE RSMC TRACK
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, REMAINING A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE IFS SCENARIO.

TALIAH IS NOW SET TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE SHORT TERM, DESPITE
A FALLING OHC AND INCREASING RELATIVE WINDSHEAR. IN ADDITION, DRY,
COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT ALOFT, OVER AND AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. CONVECTION SHOULD THUS PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, KEEPING GALE FORCE WINDS TO A MINIMUM. THE INCREASE IN
INTENSITY COULD FLUCTUATE UNTIL MONDAY, FIRSTLY AS A RESULT OF THE
MECHANICAL PUSH FROM THE TRADE WINDS, AND THEN AS A RESULT OF
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-AIR CUT-OFF, COMPENSATING FOR
THE GROWING DEFICIT IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD,
TALIAH COULD BEHAVE LIKE A SUBTROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM, DUE TO THE
NATURE OF THERMODYNAMIC EXCHANGES WITHIN THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141249
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.3 S / 84.3 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS
EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2025 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 445 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 65

24H: 15/02/2025 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 510 SO: 465 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 16/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 510 SO: 415 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85

48H: 16/02/2025 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SO: 350 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 75

60H: 17/02/2025 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SO: 325 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 75

72H: 17/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0

120H: 19/02/2025 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST
REDEVELOPPEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME, TOUT EN SE
RAPPROCHANT DU CENTRE, COMME CELA ETAIT PRESSENTI INITIALEMENT, ET CE
MALGRE DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ PEU FAVORABLES (FAIBLE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AVEC DES EAUX DE SURFACE TOUT JUSTE EGALES A 26
DEGRES, UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT JUGE MODERE A FORT DE
L'ORDRE DE 25/30KT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST). CETTE REPRISE S'EXPLIQUEE
PAR L'AIR FROID D'ALTITUDE APPLIQUE AU DESSUS DE LA VASTE CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE DE SURFACE, RENDUE POSSIBLE PAR LE GLISSEMENT DU
VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES AU SEIN D'UN LARGE THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. CE
CONTEXTE THERMIQUE PARTICULIER COMPENSE AINSI DE FAIT LA PERTE
PROGRESSIVE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE SENSIBLE DEPUIS CES
DERNIEERES 24 HEURES. L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE DE TALIAH RESTE
FIXEE A 40KT PAR INERTIE, EN RAISON DES DONNEES DE L'INTENSITE
TRANSMISE PAR L'ASCAT-C DE 0414 UTC, DES DIFFERENTES ANALYSES MODELES
HAUTE RESOLUTION AINSI QUE DE LA REPRISE RECENTE DU DEVELOPPEMENT DE
LA CONVECTION, QUI A PERMIS DE RELANCER LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES
DVORAK EN CONTEXTE CISAILLE.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET BASSE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME.LE
GLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE VERS LE BASSIN AUSTRALIEN, COMPLETE PAR
LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE A L'OUEST, AINSI QU'UN TALWEG
PASSANT PLUS AU SUD, COMMENCENT A INDUIRE UN RALENTISSEMENT DU
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DE NOUVEAU
ENTRE SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG ET LE
PASSAGE D'UNE DORSALE MOBILE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DE POSSIBLES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES POUVANT CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE
ERRATIQUES PRES DU 30E SUD. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES MONTRENT ENCORE
UNE FORTE DISPERSION, ILLUSTRANT CETTE INCERTITUDE. EN EFFET, DEUX
POSSIBILITES SE DESSINENT AU DELA DE MARDI : SOIT UN RECOURBEMENT
VERS LE SUD-EST, SOIT UN RECOURBEMENT VERS L'OUEST. CELA DEPENDRA DE
LA COMPETITION ENTRE LA REPRISE DES ALIZES EN BORDURE EST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ET DU THALWEG
PRESENT SUR LE BORD SUD-EST DE CETTE DERNIERE. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES,
EN RESTANT UN PEU PLUS PROCHE DU SCENARIO IFS.

TALIAH DEVRAIT MAINTENANT SE RE-INTENSIFIER LEGEREMENT A COURT TERME
MALGRE UN SUBSTRAT OCEANIQUE ET UN CISAILLEMENT RELATIF EN HAUSSE. DE
PLUS L'AIR SEC ET FROID DEVRAIT RESTER PERSISTANT EN ALTITUDE, SUR ET
AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES. LA CONVECTION DEVRAIT AINSI
RESISTER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET ENTRETENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE
COUP DE VENT AU MINIMUM. LE REGAIN D'INTENSITE POURRAIT FLUCTUER
JUSQU'A LUNDI, D'ABORD EN LIEN AVEC LA POUSSEE MECANIQUE LIEE AU
REGIME DES ALIZES, PUIS SOUS L'EFFET DE L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE AVEC
LE CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE SE METTANT EN PLACE, COMPENSANT LE DEFICIT
GRANDISSANT DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. EN FIN DE PERIODE, TALIAH
POURRAIT SE COMPORTER COMME UNE TEMPETE DE NATURE SUBTROPICALE OU A
CARACTERE HYBRIDE DU FAIT DE LA NATURE DES ECHANGES THERMODYNAMIQUES
AU SEIN DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE DU SYSTEME.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 23.7S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.3S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 24.9S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.8S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.0S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.9S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.4S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.0S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 84.2E.
14FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 991
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z AND 150900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 84.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 465 SW: 405 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/14 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SW: 390 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 75

24H: 2025/02/15 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SW: 470 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 75

36H: 2025/02/15 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 535 SW: 455 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SW: 315 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85

48H: 2025/02/16 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 510 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 95

60H: 2025/02/16 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110

72H: 2025/02/17 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/18 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/19 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION INITIALLY LOCATED IN
THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED, LEAVING A
LOW-LEVEL CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED. AS A RESULT, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUSPENDED, ESPECIALLY AS IT WOULD NO LONGER BE
RELEVANT FOR JUDGING THE PRECISE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY LARGE, WE CAN ASSUME THAT A STRONG INTERNAL
INERTIA IS AT WORK. THEREFORE, ON THE BASIS OF THE RCM1-VH PASS AT
2350Z, WHICH SHOWED AN AVERAGE WIND CLOSE TO 50KT (AVERAGED OVER 10
MINUTES), IT IS QUITE LIKELY, GIVEN THE RECENT DYNAMICS, TO ASSUME AN
AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF AROUND 40KT, WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRESSURE DATA AT 991 HPA PROVIDED BY A BUOY AT 0315Z LOCATED VERY
CLOSE TO THE CENTER, AS WELL AS THE PARTIAL 0414Z ASCAT-C PASS
SUGGESTING 40/43KT. TALIAH IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM FOR 40KT.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
RIDGE OF MID- AND LOW-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN AOR, COMPLETED BY THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NEW RIDGE TO THE WEST, AS WELL AS A TROUGH
SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH, ARE BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND A MOBILE RIDGE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE COMPLEX, WITH POSSIBLE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT COULD
LEAD TO SLOW OR EVEN ERRATIC MOVEMENT NEAR THE SOUTHERN 30TH. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION, ILLUSTRATING
THIS UNCERTAINTY. IN FACT, TWO POSSIBILITIES ARE EMERGING BEYOND
TUESDAY: EITHER A SOUTHEASTWARD BEND, OR A WESTWARD BEND. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE COMPETITION BETWEEN THE RESUMPTION OF TRADE WINDS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE, AND
THE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE LATTER. THE RSMC TRACK
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, REMAINING A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE IFS SCENARIO.

TALIAH SHOULD STABILIZE ITS WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM, DESPITE A
WEAK TO MODERATE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL AND RELATIVE SHEAR. IN
ADDITION, DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER AND AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. FOR ALL THAT, CONVECTION SHOULD POTENTIALLY PERSIST
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS AT A
MINIMUM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH TO MONDAY, INITIALLY LINKED TO A MECHANICAL PUSH FROM
THE TRADE WINDS, THEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF A BAROCLINIC INTERACTION
WITH AN UPPER-AIR CUT-OFF COMPENSATING FOR THE DEFICIT IN OCEAN
POTENTIAL (WATERS AT 24C AROUND 29-30S). AT THE END OF THE PERIOD,
TALIAH COULD IN FACT BEHAVE MORE LIKE A SUBTROPICAL OR HYBRID SYSTEM,
DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMIC EXCHANGES WITHIN THE INTERNAL
STRUCTURE.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140639
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.9 S / 84.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 465 SO: 405 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2025 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SO: 390 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 75

24H: 15/02/2025 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SO: 470 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 75

36H: 15/02/2025 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 535 SO: 455 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SO: 315 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85

48H: 16/02/2025 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 510 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 95

60H: 16/02/2025 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SO: 350 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 110

72H: 17/02/2025 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SO: 335 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/02/2025 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 0

120H: 19/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION RA SIDUELLE
INITIALEMENT LOCALISEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME S'EST
COMPLETEMENT EFFONDREE, LAISSANT UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
TOTALEMENT EXPOSE. EN CONSEQUENCE L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUR CE SYSTEME EST
SUSPENDUE, D'AUTANT PLUS QU'ELLE NE SERAIT PLUS PERTINENTE POUR JUGER
DE L'INTENSITE PRECISE DU SYSTEME. CELUI-CI ETANT RELATIVEMENT LARGE,
NOUS POUVONS SUPPOSER QU'UNE FORTE INERTIE INTERNE EST A LA A UVRE.
AUSSI, SUR LA BASE DE LA PASSE RCM1-VH DE 2350Z QUI DECELAIT UN VENT
MOYEN PROCHE DE 50KT (MOYENNE SUR 10 MINUTES), IL EST TOUT A FAIT
PLAUSIBLE, AU VU DE LA DYNAMIQUE RECENTE, DE TABLER SUR UN VENT MOYEN
DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT, CE QUI RESTE COHERENT AVEC LA DONNEE DE PRESSION
A 991 HPA FOURNIE PAR UNE BOUEE A 0315Z SITUEE TRES PROCHE DU CENTRE,
AINSI QUE LA PASSE PARTIELLE DE L'ASCAT-C DE 0414Z SUGGERANT DU
40/43KT DEBIAISE. TALIAH EST DONC RETROGRADEE AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE POUR 40KT.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET BASSE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME.LE
GLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE VERS LE BASSIN AUSTRALIEN, COMPLETE PAR
LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE A L'OUEST, AINSI QU'UN TALWEG
PASSANT PLUS AU SUD, COMMENCENT A INDUIRE UN RALENTISSEMENT DU
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DE NOUVEAU
ENTRE SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG ET LE
PASSAGE D'UNE DORSALE MOBILE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DE POSSIBLES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES POUVANT CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE
ERRATIQUES PRES DU 30E SUD. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES MONTRENT ENCORE
UNE FORTE DISPERSION, ILLUSTRANT CETTE INCERTITUDE. EN EFFET, DEUX
POSSIBILITES SE DESSINENT AU DELA DE MARDI : SOIT UN RECOURBEMENT
VERS LE SUD-EST, SOIT UN RECOURBEMENT VERS L'OUEST. CELA DEPENDRA DE
LA COMPETITION ENTRE LA REPRISE DES ALIZES EN BORDURE EST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ET DU THALWEG
PRESENT SUR LE BORD SUD-EST DE CETTE DERNIERE. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES,
EN RESTANT UN PEU PLUS PROCHE DU SCENARIO IFS.

TALIAH DEVRAIT A COURT TERME STABILISER SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, MALGRE
UN SUBSTRAT OCEANIQUE ET UN CISAILLEMENT RELATIF, FAIBLES A MODERES.
DE PLUS L'AIR SEC DEVRAIT RESTER PERSISTANT SUR ET AUTOUR DU CENTRE
DE BASSES COUCHES. POUR AUTANT, LA CONVECTION DEVRAIT POTENTIELLEMENT
RESISTER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET ENTRETENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE
COUP DE VENT AU MINIMUM. UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE POURRAIT AVOIR
LIEU A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR ET JUSQU'A LUNDI, D'ABORD EN LIEN AVEC
UNE POUSSEE MECANIQUE LIEE AU REGIME DES ALIZES, PUIS SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE INTERACTION BAROCLINE AVEC UN CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE COMPENSANT LE
DEFICIT DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE (EAUX A 24C VERS 29-30S). EN FIN DE
PERIODE, TALIAH POURRAIT EN EFFET SE COMPORTER PLUTOT COMME UNE
TEMPETE DE NATURE SUBTROPICALE OU A CARACTERE HYBRIDE DU FAIT DU
CHANGEMENT DES ECHANGES THERMODYNAMIQUES AU SEIN DE LA STRUCTURE
INTERNE.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140611
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 84.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
155 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/14 AT 18 UTC:
24.7 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/15 AT 06 UTC:
25.3 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 84.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 120 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 465 SW: 405 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/14 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 405 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 75

24H: 2025/02/15 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 405 SW: 490 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 120

36H: 2025/02/15 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 55

48H: 2025/02/16 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 530 SW: 445 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95

60H: 2025/02/16 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 470 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/17 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/18 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/19 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TALIAH HAS MAINTAINED A SHEARED PATTERN WITH
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX AND DEEP CONVECTION ONLY PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST
MICROWAVE IMAGES (GPM GMI OF 1802Z, GCOM AMSR2 OF 1939Z AND SSMIS F18
OF 2129Z). THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ZONE IS MORE THAN 100 MN FROM
THE CENTER ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT IR IMAGE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS GIVES A FINAL T OF 2.0 AND A CI OF 3.0. AS THE SYSTEM IS IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING, A MAXIMUM WIND VALUE OF 45KT IS USED,
DOWNGRADING TALIAH TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A MID
AND LOW TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NEW RIDGE TO THE WEST, AND A TROUGH PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH, BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND A RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX, WITH POSSIBLE
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT COULD LEAD TO A SLOW OR EVEN
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT NEAR THE 30S PARALLEL. NWP MODELS SHOW A
HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION, ILLUSTRATING THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE CURRENT
RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, REMAINING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE GFS SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TALIAH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE SHORT
TERM, DUE TO FAIRLY WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS WELL AS INCREASING
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INJECT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
CONVECTION SHOULD NEVERTHELESS PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
MAINTAINING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY
COULD OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY OR MAYBE MONDAY,
FIRST LINKED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE SATURDAY EVENING, THEN TO
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF COMPENSATING FOR
THE LACK OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (SST NEAR 24C AROUND 29-30S). AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TALIAH COULD THUS BEHAVE MORE LIKE A
SUBTROPICAL STORM OR A HYBRID SYSTEM.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140041
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/9/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.5 S / 84.9 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 120 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 465 SO: 405 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SO: 405 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 75

24H: 15/02/2025 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 405 SO: 490 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 240 NO: 120

36H: 15/02/2025 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 55

48H: 16/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 530 SO: 445 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 95

60H: 16/02/2025 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 470 SO: 315 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 17/02/2025 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0

120H: 19/02/2025 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, TALIAH A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE AVEC UN VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES EXPOSE ET UNE CONVECTION
PROFONDE SEULEMENT PRESENTE DANS LE TIERS SUD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION
COMME EN TEMOIGNENT LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (GPM GMI DE
1802Z, GCOM AMSR2 DE 1939Z ET SSMIS F18 DE 2129Z). LA BORDURE DE LA
ZONE CONVECTIVE SE SITUE A PLUS DE 100 MN DU CENTRE SELON L'IMAGE IR
LA PLUS RECENTE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN T FINAL A 2.0
ET UN CI A 3.0 . LE SYSTEME ETANT EN COURS D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ON
RETIENT UNE VALEUR DE VENT MAX DE 45KT, DECLASSANT AINSI TALIAH AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET BASSE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME.
LE GLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE SUR L'EST DU SYSTEME COMPLETE PAR LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE A L'OUEST, AINSI QU'UN TALWEG
PASSANT PLUS AU SUD, COMMENCENT A INDUIRE UN RALENTISSEMENT DU
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DE NOUVEAU
ENTRE SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG ET LE
PASSAGE D'UNE DORSALE MOBILE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DE POSSIBLES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES POUVANT CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE PRES DU 30E SUD. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE FORTE
DISPERSION, ILLUSTRANT CETTE INCERTITUDE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU
CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES, EN RESTANT UN
PEU PLUS PROCHE DU SCENARIO GFS.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, TALIAH DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT A
COURT TERME EN LIEN AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ASSEZ FAIBLE AINSI
QU'AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST, QUI DEVRAIT
INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC D'ALTITUDE SUR LE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION. LA
CONVECTION DEVRAIT NEANMOINS RESISTER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT AU MINIMUM. UN LEGER
REGAIN D'INTENSITE POURRAIT AVOIR LIEU A PARTIR DE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI
ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE VOIRE LUNDI, D'ABORD EN LIEN AVEC UNE POUSSEE
D'ALIZES SAMEDI SOIR, PUIS SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE INTERACTION BAROCLINE
AVEC UN CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE COMPENSANT LE DEFICIT EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE
(EAUX A 24C VERS 29-30S). EN FIN DE PERIODE, TALIAH POURRAIT EN EFFET
SE COMPORTER PLUTOT COMME UNE TEMPETE DE NATURE SUBTROPICALE OU A
CARACTERE HYBRIDE.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140020
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 84.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 270 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 440 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
155 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
24.4 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/15 AT 00 UTC:
24.9 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 265 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 23.1S 85.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 85.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.9S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.6S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.0S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.6S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 27.9S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.5S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 30.2S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 85.3E.
13FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 918
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 85.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 120 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 405 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/14 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120

24H: 2025/02/14 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 380 SW: 390 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130

36H: 2025/02/15 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 510 SW: 490 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 120

48H: 2025/02/15 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SW: 480 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/16 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 530 SW: 400 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95

72H: 2025/02/16 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 435 SW: 380 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/17 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 455 SW: 325 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 110

120H: 2025/02/18 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TALIAH HAS MAINTAINED A SHEARED PATTERN WITH
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX AND DEEP CONVECTION ONLY PRESENT IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN PART OF ITS CIRCULATION. THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
AREA LIES AT 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES
A MET/PT OF 2.5 AND A DT OF 2.5 OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE FINAL
T-NUMBER IS SET AT 2.0, LOWERING THE CI TO 3.0. THE CURRENT WEAKENING
TREND IS LINKED BOTH TO THE DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND TO WEAK TO
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. OBJECTIVE CIMSS AIDS SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY THAT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW (CLOSE TO 30 KT), PROBABLY BIASED
BY THE SYSTEM'S POOR CLOUD PATTERN. THE ASCAT SWATH AT 1603Z AND THE
SAR SWATH AT 1238Z MEASURE WINDS OF 50KT, SO THIS IS THE VALUE USED
FOR THE MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY AT 1800Z.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A NEW RIDGE TO THE WEST, AND A TROUGH
PASSING FURTHER SOUTH, WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT BY TOMORROW, FRIDAY.
MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND A RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX, WITH POSSIBLE
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT COULD LEAD TO A SLOW OR EVEN
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT NEAR THE 30S PARALLEL. NWP MODELS SHOW A
HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION, ILLUSTRATING THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE CURRENT
RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, REMAINING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE GFS SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TALIAH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE SHORT
TERM, DUE TO FAIRLY WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS WELL AS INCREASING
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INJECT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
CONVECTION SHOULD NEVERTHELESS PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
MAINTAINING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY
COULD OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY OR MAYBE MONDAY,
FIRST LINKED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE SATURDAY EVENING, THEN TO
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF COMPENSATING FOR
THE LACK OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (SST NEAR 24C AROUND 29-30S). AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TALIAH COULD THUS BEHAVE MORE LIKE A
SUBTROPICAL STORM OR A HYBRID SYSTEM.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131827
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/9/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.1 S / 85.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 120 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SO: 405 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 305 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 160 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2025 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120

24H: 14/02/2025 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 380 SO: 390 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 130

36H: 15/02/2025 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 510 SO: 490 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 120

48H: 15/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SO: 480 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 0

60H: 16/02/2025 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 530 SO: 400 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95

72H: 16/02/2025 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 435 SO: 380 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2025 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 455 SO: 325 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 110

120H: 18/02/2025 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, TALIAH A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE AVEC UN VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES EXPOSE ET UNE CONVECTION
PROFONDE SEULEMENT PRESENTE DANS LE TIERS SUD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION.
LA BORDURE DE LA ZONE CONVECTIVE SE SITUE A 60 MN DU CENTRE.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN MET/PT A 2.5 ET UN DT DE 2.0 AU
COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES. LE NOMBRE T FINAL EST ETABLI A 2.0,
ABAISSANT LE CI A 3.0. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST LIE A LA FOIS A LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET A UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE DE
NORD-OUEST. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS SUGGERENT UNE
INTENSITE PROBABLEMENT TROP BASSE (PROCHE DE 30 KT),
VRAISEMBLABLEMENT BIAISEE PAR LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DEGRADEE DU
SYSTEME. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1603Z ET LA SAR DE 1238Z MESURENT DE VENTS
DE 50KT ET C'EST DONC CETTE VALEUR QUI EST RETENUE POUR L'INTENSITE
DE VENT MAX A 1800Z.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME.
LE GLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE SUR L'EST DU SYSTEME COMPLETE PAR LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE A L'OUEST, AINSI QU'UN TALWEG
PASSANT PLUS AU SUD, INDUIRONT UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT D'ICI
DEMAIN VENDREDI. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DE NOUVEAU ENTRE
SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG ET LE PASSAGE
D'UNE DORSALE MOBILE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DE POSSIBLES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES POUVANT CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE PRES DU 30E SUD. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE FORTE
DISPERSION, ILLUSTRANT CETTE INCERTITUDE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU
CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES, EN RESTANT UN
PEU PLUS PROCHE DU SCENARIO GFS.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, TALIAH DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT A
COURT TERME EN LIEN AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ASSEZ FAIBLE AINSI
QU'AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST, QUI DEVRAIT
INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC D'ALTITUDE SUR LE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION. LA
CONVECTION DEVRAIT NEANMOINS RESISTER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT AU MINIMUM. UN LEGER
REGAIN D'INTENSITE POURRAIT AVOIR LIEU A PARTIR DE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI
ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE VOIRE LUNDI, D'ABORD EN LIEN AVEC UNE POUSSEE
D'ALIZES SAMEDI SOIR, PUIS SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE INTERACTION BAROCLINE
AVEC UN CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE COMPENSANT LE DEFICIT EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE
(EAUX A 24C VERS 29-30S). EN FIN DE PERIODE, TALIAH POURRAIT EN EFFET
SE COMPORTER PLUTOT COMME UNE TEMPETE DE NATURE SUBTROPICALE OU A
CARACTERE HYBRIDE.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 131816
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 85.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 255 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
23.8 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/14 AT 18 UTC:
24.5 S / 83.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 86.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 107 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 555 SW: 405 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/14 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SW: 360 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 150

24H: 2025/02/14 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 405 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 150

36H: 2025/02/15 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 415 SW: 455 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 155

48H: 2025/02/15 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 510 SW: 435 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/16 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 575 SW: 480 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95

72H: 2025/02/16 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 490 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/17 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 435 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 110

120H: 2025/02/18 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TALIAH HAS MAINTAINED A SHEARED PATTERN WITH
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX AND DEEP CONVECTION ONLY PRESENT IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN PART OF ITS CIRCULATION. THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
AREA LIES BETWEEN 40 AND 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS GIVES A MET/PT OF 3.0 AND A DT FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 2.0 AND
2.5 OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE FINAL T-NUMBER IS SET AT 2.5,
LOWERING THE CI TO 3.5. THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND IS LINKED BOTH TO
THE DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND TO WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. OBJECTIVE CIMSS AIDS SUGGEST AN INTENSITY THAT IS PROBABLY TOO
LOW (CLOSE TO 35 KT), PROBABLY BIASED BY THE SYSTEM'S POOR CLOUD
PATTERN. NWP GUIDANCE, ON THE OTHER HAND, SUGGESTS WINDS CLOSER TO
45/50 KT, WHICH SEEMS MORE REALISTIC. INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 50 KT BY
INERTIA, WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
BY CONVECTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECTS.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A NEW RIDGE TO THE WEST, AND A TROUGH
PASSING FURTHER SOUTH, WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT BY TOMORROW, FRIDAY.
MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND A RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX, WITH POSSIBLE
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT COULD LEAD TO A SLOW OR EVEN
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT NEAR THE 30S PARALLEL. NWP MODELS SHOW A
HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION, ILLUSTRATING THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE CURRENT
RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, REMAINING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE GFS SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TALIAH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE SHORT
TERM, DUE TO FAIRLY WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS WELL AS INCREASING
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INJECT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
CONVECTION SHOULD NEVERTHELESS PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
MAINTAINING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY
COULD OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY OR MAYBE MONDAY,
FIRST LINKED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE SATURDAY EVENING, THEN TO
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF COMPENSATING FOR
THE LACK OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (SST NEAR 24C AROUND 29-30S). AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TALIAH COULD THUS BEHAVE MORE LIKE A
SUBTROPICAL STORM OR A HYBRID SYSTEM.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131226
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/9/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.7 S / 86.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 107 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 555 SO: 405 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SO: 315 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2025 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SO: 360 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 150

24H: 14/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SO: 405 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 150

36H: 15/02/2025 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 415 SO: 455 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 155

48H: 15/02/2025 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 510 SO: 435 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 0

60H: 16/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 575 SO: 480 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 95

72H: 16/02/2025 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 490 SO: 335 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 435 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 110

120H: 18/02/2025 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, TALIAH A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE AVEC UN VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES EXPOSE ET UNE CONVECTION
PROFONDE SEULEMENT PRESENTE DANS LE TIERS SUD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION.
LA BORDURE DE LA ZONE CONVECTIVE SE SITUE ENTRE 40 ET 60 MN DU
CENTRE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN MET/PT A 3.0 ET UN DT
FLUCTUANT ENTRE 2.0 ET 2.5 AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES. LE NOMBRE T
FINAL EST ETABLI A 2.5, ABAISSANT LE CI A 3.5. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT
EST LIE A LA FOIS A LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET A UN
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE DE NORD-OUEST. LES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS SUGGERENT UNE INTENSITE PROBABLEMENT TROP BASSE
(PROCHE DE 35 KT), VRAISEMBLABLEMENT BIAISEE PAR LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE DEGRADEE DU SYSTEME. LES MODELISATIONS NUMERIQUES SUGGERENT
EN REVANCHE DES VENTS PLUS PROCHES DE 45/50 KT, CE QUI SEMBLE PLUS
REALISTE. L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 50 KT PAR INERTIE, AVEC DES VENTS
DE FORCE TEMPETE LIMITES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD SOUS LA CONVECTION
ET PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DE PRESSION.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME.
LE GLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE SUR L'EST DU SYSTEME COMPLETE PAR LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE A L'OUEST, AINSI QU'UN TALWEG
PASSANT PLUS AU SUD, INDUIRONT UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT D'ICI
DEMAIN VENDREDI. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DE NOUVEAU ENTRE
SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG ET LE PASSAGE
D'UNE DORSALE MOBILE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DE POSSIBLES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES POUVANT CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE PRES DU 30E SUD. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE FORTE
DISPERSION, ILLUSTRANT CETTE INCERTITUDE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU
CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES, EN RESTANT UN
PEU PLUS PROCHE DU SCENARIO GFS.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, TALIAH DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT A
COURT TERME EN LIEN AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ASSEZ FAIBLE AINSI
QU'AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST, QUI DEVRAIT
INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC D'ALTITUDE SUR LE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION. LA
CONVECTION DEVRAIT NEANMOINS RESISTER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT AU MINIMUM. UN LEGER
REGAIN D'INTENSITE POURRAIT AVOIR LIEU A PARTIR DE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI
ET JUSQU'A DIMANCHE VOIRE LUNDI, D'ABORD EN LIEN AVEC UNE POUSSEE
D'ALIZES SAMEDI SOIR, PUIS SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE INTERACTION BAROCLINE
AVEC UN CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE COMPENSANT LE DEFICIT EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE
(EAUX A 24C VERS 29-30S). EN FIN DE PERIODE, TALIAH POURRAIT EN EFFET
SE COMPORTER PLUTOT COMME UNE TEMPETE DE NATURE SUBTROPICALE OU A
CARACTERE HYBRIDE.

CE SYSTEME NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 131211
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 86.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 340 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 80
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
23.6 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 80 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
24.2 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 80 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 22.0S 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 87.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.3S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.1S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.6S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.1S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.6S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.7S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.3S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 86.7E.
13FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 809
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z
IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130749
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 87.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 106 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 630 SW: 480 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SW: 335 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 190 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/13 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 400 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/14 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 150

36H: 2025/02/14 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 425 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140

48H: 2025/02/15 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 520 SW: 510 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 120

60H: 2025/02/15 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 565 SW: 470 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85

72H: 2025/02/16 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 595 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/17 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 480 SW: 370 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/18 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, TALIAH'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN, PERSISTING ONLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX. THE
PREVIOUS INTENSITY ANALYSIS, AT 00UTC, HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO 60 KT
IN THE BEST-TRACK IN LINE WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES: SAR RCM1 AT 2341Z WITH WINDS REACHING 65 KT (1MIN WINDS)
ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 0001Z SMOS AT 59 KT, THEN THE 0254Z
ASCAT-C AND 0340Z ASCAT-B PASSES SUGGESTING WINDS OF 50-55 KT, WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WIND
EXTENSIONS AND RMW HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH ASCAT DATA, SHOWING A STILL
VERY BROAD CIRCULATION. THE WEAKENING OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE
MAINLY LINKED TO THE DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WITH THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY CIRCULATING OVER SST NEAR 25-26C. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS AT 06UTC IS DOWN, WITH A FINAL T-NUMBER OF 3.0, BASED ON THE
MET. INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT, MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
DVORAK ANALYSIS, RECENT ASCAT DATA AND SATCON ESTIMATION.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A NEW RIDGE TO THE WEST, AND A TROUGH
PASSING FURTHER SOUTH, WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT BY TOMORROW, FRIDAY.
MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND A RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX, WITH POSSIBLE
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT COULD LEAD TO A SLOW OR EVEN
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT NEAR THE 30S PARALLEL. NWP MODELS SHOW A
HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION, ILLUSTRATING THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE CURRENT
RSMC FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TALIAH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE SHORT
TERM, DUE TO A FAIRLY WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE
IN WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INJECT DRY
AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. CONVECTION SHOULD
NEVERTHELESS PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, MAINTAINING AT LEAST
GALE FORCE WINDS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR FROM
SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY, LINKED TO BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF COMPENSATING FOR THE OCEANIC
HEAT DEFICIT (SST NEAR 24C AROUND 29-30S), WITH THE SYSTEM THEN
RESEMBLING A SUBTROPICAL STORM.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130749
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/9/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.9 S / 87.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 106 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 630 SO: 480 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SO: 335 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 190 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2025 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 400 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 0

24H: 14/02/2025 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 150

36H: 14/02/2025 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SO: 425 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 140

48H: 15/02/2025 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 520 SO: 510 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 280 NO: 120

60H: 15/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 565 SO: 470 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85

72H: 16/02/2025 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 595 SO: 425 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2025 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 480 SO: 370 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 0

120H: 18/02/2025 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE DE TALIAH A
CONTINUE A S'AFFAIBLIR, NE PERSISTANT PLUS QUE DANS LA PARTIE SUD-EST
DU SYSTEME. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE MONTRENT UN VORTEX DE
BASSES COUCHES EXPOSE. L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTE, A 00UTC, A
ETE ABAISSEE A 60 KT DANS LA BEST-TRACK EN LIEN AVEC LES DERNIERES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE : SAR RCM1 A 2341Z AVEC DES VENTS
N'ATTEIGNANT 65 KT (VENTS 1MIN) QUE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST, SMOS A
0001Z A 59 KT, PUIS LES PASSES ASCAT-C DE 0254Z ET ASCAT-B DE 0340Z
SUGGERANT DES VENTS DE 50-55 KT, AVEC DE LA TEMPETE SEULEMENT
PRESENTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT ET LE RVM
ONT ETE MIS A JOUR GRACE AUX DONNEES ASCAT, MONTRANT UNE CIRCULATION
ENCORE TRES LARGE. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA CONVECTION SEMBLE
PRINCIPALEMENT LIE A LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, LE SYSTEME
CIRCULANT ACTUELLEMENT SUR DES EAUX A 25-26C. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE A 06UTC EST EN BAISSE AVEC UN NOMBRE T FINAL A 3.0, BASE
SUR LE MET. L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 55 KT, FAISANT UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE L'ANALYSE DVORAK, LES RECENTES MESURES ASCAT ET L'ESTIMATION
SATCON.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME.
LE GLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE SUR L'EST DU SYSTEME COMPLETE PAR LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE A L'OUEST, AINSI QU'UN TALWEG
PASSANT PLUS AU SUD, INDUIRONT UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT D'ICI
DEMAIN VENDREDI. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DE NOUVEAU ENTRE
SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG ET LE PASSAGE
D'UNE DORSALE MOBILE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DE POSSIBLES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES POUVANT CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE PRES DU 30E SUD. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE FORTE
DISPERSION, ILLUSTRANT CETTE INCERTITUDE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU
CMRS RESTE ASSEZ PROCHE DU SCENARIO GFS.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, TALIAH DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT A
COURT TERME EN LIEN AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ASSEZ FAIBLE PUIS DE
LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST, QUI DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC SUR LE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION.
LA CONVECTION DEVRAIT NEANMOINS RESISTER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT AU MINIMUM. UN LEGER
REGAIN D'INTENSITE POURRAIT AVOIR LIEU A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR ET
JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI, EN LIEN AVEC UNE INTERACTION BAROCLINE
AVEC UN CUT-OFF D'ALTITUDE COMPENSANT LE DEFICIT EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE
(EAUX A 24C VERS 29-30S), LE SYSTEME S'APPARENTANT ALORS PLUTOT A UNE
TEMPETE DE NATURE SUBTROPICALE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS
LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130633
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 87.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 106 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 630 SW: 480 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SW: 335 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 190 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/13 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 400 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/14 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 150

36H: 2025/02/14 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 425 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140

48H: 2025/02/15 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 520 SW: 510 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 120

60H: 2025/02/15 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 565 SW: 470 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85

72H: 2025/02/16 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 595 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/17 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 480 SW: 370 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

120H: 2025/02/18 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, TALIAH'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN, PERSISTING ONLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX. THE
PREVIOUS INTENSITY ANALYSIS, AT 00UTC, HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO 60 KT
IN THE BEST-TRACK IN LINE WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES: SAR RCM1 AT 2341Z WITH WINDS REACHING 65 KT (1MIN WINDS)
ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 0001Z SMOS AT 59 KT, THEN THE 0254Z
ASCAT-C AND 0340Z ASCAT-B PASSES SUGGESTING WINDS OF 50-55 KT, WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WIND
EXTENSIONS AND RMW HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH ASCAT DATA, SHOWING A STILL
VERY BROAD CIRCULATION. THE WEAKENING OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE
MAINLY LINKED TO THE DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WITH THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY CIRCULATING OVER SST NEAR 25-26C. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS AT 06UTC IS DOWN, WITH A FINAL T-NUMBER OF 3.0, BASED ON THE
MET. INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT, MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
DVORAK ANALYSIS, RECENT ASCAT DATA AND SATCON ESTIMATION.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A NEW RIDGE TO THE WEST, AND A TROUGH
PASSING FURTHER SOUTH, WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT BY TOMORROW, FRIDAY.
MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND A RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX, WITH POSSIBLE
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT COULD LEAD TO A SLOW OR EVEN
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT NEAR THE 30S PARALLEL. NWP MODELS SHOW A
HIGH DEGREE OF DISPERSION, ILLUSTRATING THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE CURRENT
RSMC FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TALIAH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE SHORT
TERM, DUE TO A FAIRLY WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE
IN WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INJECT DRY
AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. CONVECTION SHOULD
NEVERTHELESS PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, MAINTAINING AT LEAST
GALE FORCE WINDS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR FROM
SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY, LINKED TO BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMPENSATING FOR THE OCEANIC
HEAT DEFICIT (SST NEAR 24C AROUND 29-30S), WITH THE SYSTEM THEN
RESEMBLING A SUBTROPICAL STORM.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130633
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/9/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.9 S / 87.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 106 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 630 SO: 480 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SO: 335 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 190 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2025 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 400 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 0

24H: 14/02/2025 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 150

36H: 14/02/2025 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SO: 425 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 140

48H: 15/02/2025 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 520 SO: 510 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 280 NO: 120

60H: 15/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 565 SO: 470 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85

72H: 16/02/2025 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 595 SO: 425 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2025 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 480 SO: 370 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 0

120H: 18/02/2025 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE DE TALIAH A
CONTINUE A S'AFFAIBLIR, NE PERSISTANT PLUS QUE DANS LA PARTIE SUD-EST
DU SYSTEME. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE MONTRENT UN VORTEX DE
BASSES COUCHES EXPOSE. L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTE, A 00UTC, A
ETE ABAISSEE A 60 KT DANS LA BEST-TRACK EN LIEN AVEC LES DERNIERES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE : SAR RCM1 A 2341Z AVEC DES VENTS
N'ATTEIGNANT 65 KT (VENTS 1MIN) QUE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST, SMOS A
0001Z A 59 KT, PUIS LES PASSES ASCAT-C DE 0254Z ET ASCAT-B DE 0340Z
SUGGERANT DES VENTS DE 50-55 KT, AVEC DE LA TEMPETE SEULEMENT
PRESENTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT ET LE RVM
ONT ETE MIS A JOUR GRACE AUX DONNEES ASCAT, MONTRANT UNE CIRCULATION
ENCORE TRES LARGE. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA CONVECTION SEMBLE
PRINCIPALEMENT LIE A LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, LE SYSTEME
CIRCULANT ACTUELLEMENT SUR DES EAUX A 25-26C. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE A 06UTC EST EN BAISSE AVEC UN NOMBRE T FINAL A 3.0, BASE
SUR LE MET. L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 55 KT, FAISANT UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE L'ANALYSE DVORAK, LES RECENTES MESURES ASCAT ET L'ESTIMATION
SATCON.

TALIAH SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME.
LE GLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE SUR L'EST DU SYSTEME COMPLETE PAR LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE A L'OUEST, AINSI QU'UN TALWEG
PASSANT PLUS AU SUD, INDUIRONT UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT D'ICI
DEMAIN VENDREDI. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DE NOUVEAU ENTRE
SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE EN LIEN AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG ET LE PASSAGE
D'UNE DORSALE MOBILE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LA PREVISION DEVIENT PLUS COMPLEXE AVEC DE POSSIBLES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES POUVANT CONDUIRE A UN MOUVEMENT LENT VOIRE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE PRES DU 30E SUD. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE FORTE
DISPERSION, ILLUSTRANT CETTE INCERTITUDE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU
CMRS RESTE ASSEZ PROCHE DU SCENARIO GFS.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, TALIAH DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT A
COURT TERME EN LIEN AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ASSEZ FAIBLE PUIS DE
LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A NORD-OUEST, QUI DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC SUR LE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION.
LA CONVECTION DEVRAIT NEANMOINS RESISTER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT AU MINIMUM. UN LEGER
REGAIN D'INTENSITE POURRAIT AVOIR LIEU A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR ET
JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI, EN LIEN AVEC UNE INTERACTION BAROCLINE
AVEC UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE COMPENSANT LE DEFICIT EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE
(EAUX A 24C VERS 29-30S), LE SYSTEME S'APPARENTANT ALORS PLUTOT A UNE
TEMPETE DE NATURE SUBTROPICALE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES DANS
LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130616
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (TALIAH) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 87.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 340 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
23.2 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
24.0 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 80 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 88.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 170 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/13 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2025/02/14 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2025/02/14 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 335 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2025/02/15 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 140

60H: 2025/02/15 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 510 SW: 445 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 140

72H: 2025/02/16 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 520 SW: 390 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/17 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 345 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 35

120H: 2025/02/18 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 445 SW: 280 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BANDED EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED,
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RATHER LIMITED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
SYSTEM, MOST PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE
NORTHERN SECTOR. THE LAST GCOM-W PASS OF 1856UTC SHOWED THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS CONCENTRATING. THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES
OF POORER QUALITY FURTHER CONFIRM THIS TREND, WHICH BEGAN IN THE LAST
12 HOURS. TALIAH'S WIND STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. DVORAK EYE
ANALYSIS OVER SHORT PERIODS OSCILLATES AROUND 4.5-, VALIDATING A WIND
ESTIMATE OF AROUND 65KT. CYCLONE TALIAH CONTINUES DESPITE DECLINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TALIAH'S TRACK FORECAST : AT PRESENT, TALIAH IS
CAPTURED IN THE DIRECTING FLOW OF A RIDGE OF MIDDLE AND HIGH
TROPOSPHERE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM, ORIENTING ITS
COURSE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST. THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE FURTHER
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A NEW
RIDGE TO THE WEST OF TALIAH AT THE LEVEL OF THE MASCAREIGNES, IS
HELPING TO DEFINE CONTRADICTORY FLOWS. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOWDOWN IN
MOVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR, WHILE MAINTAINING A SOUTH-WESTERLY ORIENTATION
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THE POSITIONING
OF THE VARIOUS RIDGES AT DIFFERENT LEVELS DOES NOT DEFINE A CLEAR-CUT
DIRECTING FLOW, BUT THE WEAKNESS IN THE MASS FIELD TO THE SOUTH
LEAVES A DOMINANT COMPONENT FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT OF TALIAH,
ACCELERATING TIMIDLY FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS. LATER, A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE WILL DEFINE A MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTIONAL FLOW, BRINGING TALIAH TO LATITUDES ABOVE 30S EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT'S STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED ON THE SUNDAY
TRACK SCENARIOS, DUE TO THE NON-DOMINANCE OF THE DIRECTIONAL FLOW AT
THESE TIMES. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SCENARIO.

TALIAH WILL CONTINUE TO ENJOY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH SUFFICIENT OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW BUT INCREASING
SHEAR AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL SUPPLY. HOWEVER, DRY AIR SEEMS TO BE PRESENT
ALOFT, WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT TALIAH'S INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, INTENSITY SHOULD STAGNATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD CIRCULATE ON THURSDAY LATE IN THE DAY OVER
COOLER WATERS WITH INSUFFICIENT OCEAN POTENTIAL. THE DEEP SHEAR IS
ALSO STRENGTHENING AT THE SAME TIME AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST. TALIAH INTENSITY SHOULD THEREFORE GRADUALLY DECREASE
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY
COULD OCCUR AROUND SUNDAY/MONDAY DUE TO THE DECREASE IN SHEAR, WHILE
THESE PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.


NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130033
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/9/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 88.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 170 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2025 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 14/02/2025 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 14/02/2025 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 335 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 15/02/2025 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 140

60H: 15/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 510 SO: 445 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 140

72H: 16/02/2025 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 520 SO: 390 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2025 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SO: 345 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 35

120H: 18/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 445 SO: 280 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL EN BANDE
S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PLUTOT LIMITEE DANS LA
PARTIE NORD DU SYSTEME, TRES PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA PRESENCE
D'AIR SEC EN ALTITUDE DANS LE SECTEUR NORD. LA DERNIERE PASSE GCOM-W
DE 1856UTC MONTRAIT QUE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES ETAIT EN
TRAIN DE SE CONCENTRER. LES DERNIERES PASSES MICRO-ONDE DE MOINS
BONNE QUALITE CONFIRMENT ENCORE CETTE TENDANCE ENTAMEE AU COURS DE 12
DERNIERES HEURES. LA STRUCTURE DE VENT DE TALIAH CONTINUE D'EVOLUER.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL SUR DES COURTES PERIODES OSCILLE VERS 4.5-
VALIDANT UNE ESTIMATION DE VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 65KT. LE CYCLONE TALIAH
SE MAINTIENT MALGRE UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DECLINANTE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DE TALIAH :
ACTUELLEMENT, TALIAH EST PRIS DANS LE FLUX DIRECTEUR D'UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME ORIENTANT
SA COURSE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST. LE GLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE PLUS
SUR L'EST DU SYSTME COMPLETEE PAR LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN NOUVELLE
DORSALE A L'OUEST DE TALIAH AU NIVEAU DES MASCAREIGNES CONTRIBUE A
DEFINIR DES FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UN RALENTISSEMENT
DU DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE FAIRE TOUT EN GARDANT UNE ORIENTATION VERS
LE SUD-OUEST DU FAIT DU PASSAGE PLUS AU SUD D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE.
LE POSITIONNEMENT DES DIFFERENTES DORSALES A DIFFERENT NIVEAU NE
DEFINIT PAS DE FLUX DIRECTEUR FRANC MAIS LA FAIBLESSE DANS LE CHAMPS
DE MASSE AU SUD LAISSE UNE COMPOSANTE DOMINANTE POUR UN DEPLACEMENT
DE TALIAH VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT TIMIDEMENT A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI. PLUS TARD, UNE DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE FINIT PAR DEFINIR PLUS
FRANCHEMENT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, AMENANT TALIAH
VERS DES LATITUDES PASSANT LE 30S EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. IL
COMMENCE A AVOIR UN PEU PLUS DE DISPERSION SUR LES SCENARII DE
TRAJECTOIRE A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE, DU FAIT DE LA NON-DOMINANCE DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR A CES ECHEANCES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS OPTE
PLUTOT SUR UN SCENARIO PROCHE DE GFS.

TALIAH CONSERVE ENCORE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR LES PROCHAINES 12H, AVEC UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT, UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT BIEN QU'AUGMENTANT, UNE
BONNE ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES. CEPENDANT DE L'AIR SEC SEMBLE
PRESENT EN ALTITUDE CE QUI POURRAIT CONTRIBUER A LIMITER
L'INTENSIFICATION DE TALIAH. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT
STAGNER AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H. PAR LA SUITE, IL DEVRAIT
CIRCULER DES JEUDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AVEC
UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT. LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND SE
RENFORCE EGALEMENT A CES MEMES ECHEANCES ALORS QU'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ARRIVE PAR L'OUEST. L'INTENSITE DE TALIAH DEVRAIT DONC
DIMINUER PROGRESSIVEMENT A COMPTER DE JEUDI APRES-MIDI OU SOIR. UN
LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE POURRAIT AVOIR LIEU A ECHEANCE DE
DIMANCHE/LUNDI DU FAIT DE LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT ALORS QUE CES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES COMMENCERONT A DECLINER EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE.


AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130001
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (TALIAH) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 88.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/13 AT 12 UTC:
22.6 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
23.3 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 89.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 89.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.9S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.1S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.9S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.5S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.9S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 31.2S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 89.2E.
12FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 638
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/9/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 89.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 650 SW: 530 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SW: 400 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 210 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/13 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 665 SW: 510 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/13 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 545 SW: 415 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/14 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 490 SW: 405 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/14 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 520 SW: 465 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/15 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 620 SW: 545 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 165

72H: 2025/02/15 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 620 SW: 520 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/16 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 565 SW: 480 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 45

120H: 2025/02/17 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 510 SW: 415 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 155

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

TALIAH PASSED THE 90TH SHORTLY AFTER 12UTC. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS,
THE EYE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED CONSIDERABLY, SHOWING A CONCENTRATION OF
THE EYE FROM 14UTC ONWARDS, ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS. A BANDED EYE STRUCTURE COULD EMERGE, REVEALING A
CONVECTION-FREE ZONE IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE LAST FEW
MOMENTS. TALIAH'S WIND STRUCTURE HAS CERTAINLY EVOLVED, WITH A
MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS THAT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY, AS SHOWN BY THE
LATEST MICROWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGES. WE NOTE A SLIGHT NORTH-WEST
SHIFT OF THE CENTER ESTIMATED BY MICROWAVES COMPARED WITH THE
POSITIONING THAT COULD BE MADE BY INFRA-RED IMAGES DUE TO PARALLAX
ERRORS AT ITS VERY EASTERN LONGITUDES. NATURALLY, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
IN T IS DOWN, BUT DUE TO INERTIA THE CI REMAINS AT 4.5- WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 65KT. TALIAH REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT PRESENT, TALIAH IS CAPTURED IN THE DIRECTING FLOW OF A RIDGE OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH TROPOSPHERE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
ORIENTING ITS COURSE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST. THE SHIFT OF THIS
RIDGE FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NEW RIDGE TO THE WEST OF TALIAH AT THE LEVEL OF
THE MASCAREIGNES, IS HELPING TO DEFINE CONTRADICTORY FLOWS. IN THIS
CONTEXT, A SLOWDOWN IN MOVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR, WHILE MAINTAINING A
SOUTH-WESTERLY ORIENTATION DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH. THE POSITIONING OF THE VARIOUS RIDGES AT DIFFERENT
LEVELS DOES NOT DEFINE A CLEAR-CUT DIRECTING FLOW, BUT THE WEAKNESS
IN THE MASS FIELD TO THE SOUTH LEAVES A DOMINANT COMPONENT FOR A
SOUTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT OF TALIAH, ACCELERATING TIMIDLY FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS. LATER, A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEFINE A MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONAL FLOW, BRINGING TALIAH TO LATITUDES
ABOVE 30S EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT, ALL THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK, BUT DISPERSION IS SET TO INCREASE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS DUE TO THE NON-DOMINANCE OF THE DIRECTING FLOW AT
THESE TIMES, AND THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST OPTS INSTEAD FOR A
SCENARIO CLOSE TO GFS.

TALIAH IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR
18-24H, WITH SUFFICIENT OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND
GOOD LOW-LEVEL SUPPLY. HOWEVER, DRY AIR SEEMS TO BE PRESENT ALOFT,
WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT TALIAH'S INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, INTENSITY SHOULD STAGNATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD CIRCULATE ON THURSDAY LATE IN THE DAY OVER
COOLER WATERS WITH INSUFFICIENT OCEAN POTENTIAL. THE DEEP SHEAR IS
ALSO STRENGTHENING AT THE SAME TIME AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST. TALIAH INTENSITY SHOULD THEREFORE GRADUALLY DECREASE
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY
COULD OCCUR AROUND SUNDAY/MONDAY DUE TO THE DECREASE IN SHEAR, WHILE
THESE PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.


NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121841
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/9/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 89.6 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 650 SO: 530 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SO: 400 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 210 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2025 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 665 SO: 510 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 13/02/2025 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 545 SO: 415 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SO: 280 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 45

36H: 14/02/2025 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 490 SO: 405 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 45

48H: 14/02/2025 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 520 SO: 465 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 45

60H: 15/02/2025 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 620 SO: 545 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 165

72H: 15/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 620 SO: 520 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2025 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 565 SO: 480 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SO: 315 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 45

120H: 17/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 510 SO: 415 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 155

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

LE SYSTEME TROPICAL TALIAH A PASSE LE 90E PEU APRES 12UTC. AU COURS
DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A BEAUCOUP EVOLUEE
MONTRANT UN OEIL QUI SE CONCENTRE A PARTIR DE 14UTC ACCOMPAGNE D'UN
RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS DES NUAGES. UNE STRUCTURE D'OEIL EN BANDE
POURRAIT EN RESSORTIR, LAISSANT APPARAITRE UNE ZONE SANS CONVECTION
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS. LA STRUCTURE DE
VENT DE TALIAH A CERTAINEMENT EVOLUE PRESENTANT UN RAYON DE VENT
MAXIMUM QUI A BIEN DIMINUE COMME PEUVENT LE MONTRER LES DERNIERES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDE ET INFRA-ROUGE. ON NOTERA UN LEGER DECALAGE VERS LE
NORD-OUEST DU CENTRE ESTIME PAR LES MICRO-ONDES PAR RAPPORT AU
POSITIONNEMENT QUI POURRAIT ETRE FAIT PAR LES IMAGES INFRA-ROUGES DU
FAIT DES ERREURS DE PARALLAXE A SES LONGITUDES TRES EST.
NATURELLEMENT, L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN T EST A LA BAISSE MAIS PAR INERTIE
LE CI RESTE A 4.5- AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 65KT. TALIAH RESTE AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

ACTUELLEMENT, TALIAH EST PRIS DANS LE FLUX DIRECTEUR D'UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME ORIENTANT
SA COURSE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST. LE GLISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE PLUS
SUR L'EST DU SYSTME COMPLETEE PAR LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN NOUVELLE
DORSALE A L'OUEST DE TALIAH AU NIVEAU DES MASCAREIGNES CONTRIBUE A
DEFINIR DES FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UN RALENTISSEMENT
DU DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT SE FAIRE TOUT EN GARDANT UNE ORIENTATION VERS
LE SUD-OUEST DU FAIT DU PASSAGE PLUS AU SUD D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE.
LE POSITIONNEMENT DES DIFFERENTES DORSALES A DIFFERENT NIVEAU NE
DEFINIT PAS DE FLUX DIRECTEUR FRANC MAIS LA FAIBLESSE DANS LE CHAMPS
DE MASSE AU SUD LAISSE UNE COMPOSANTE DOMINANTE POUR UN DEPLACEMENT
DE TALIAH VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT TIMIDEMENT A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI. PLUS TARD, UNE DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE FINIT PAR DEFINIR PLUS
FRANCHEMENT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, AMENANT TALIAH
VERS DES LATITUDES PASSANT LE 30S EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.
ACTUELLEMENT, L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, CEPENDANT LA DISPERSION DEVRAIT AUGMENTER A PARTIR
DE SAMEDI DU FAIT DE LA NON-DOMINANCE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR A CES
ECHEANCES ET LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS OPTE PLUTOT SUR UN
SCENARIO PROCHE DE GFS.

TALIAH BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
ET CE PENDANT 18-24H, AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT, UN
FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT BIEN QU'AUGMENTANT, UNE BONNE ALIMENTATION DE
BASSES COUCHES. CEPENDANT DE L'AIR SEC SEMBLE PRESENT EN ALTITUDE CE
QUI POURRAIT CONTRIBUER A LIMITER L'INTENSIFICATION DE TALIAH. DANS
CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT STAGNER AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H. PAR LA SUITE, IL DEVRAIT CIRCULER DES JEUDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE
SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT.
LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND SE RENFORCE EGALEMENT A CES MEMES ECHEANCES
ALORS QU'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVE PAR L'OUEST. L'INTENSITE DE
TALIAH DEVRAIT DONC DIMINUER PROGRESSIVEMENT A COMPTER DE JEUDI
APRES-MIDI OU SOIR. UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE POURRAIT AVOIR LIEU A
ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE/LUNDI DU FAIT DE LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT ALORS
QUE CES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES COMMENCERONT A DECLINER
A FIN D'ECHEANCE.


AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121803
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (TALIAH) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 89.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 165
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 225 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 285 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/13 AT 06 UTC:
22.0 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 360 NM SW: 275 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
23.1 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121321
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 90.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 102 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 650 SW: 530 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SW: 400 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 210 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/13 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 675 SW: 520 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 405 SW: 345 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/13 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 595 SW: 445 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/14 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 480 SW: 415 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/14 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 415 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/15 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 120

72H: 2025/02/15 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SW: 510 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 325 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/16 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 545 SW: 380 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/17 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 400 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

THE TALIAH TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN PICKED UP AT 12UTC BY THE REUNION
RSMC. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED
NEAR THE CENTER, WITH THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM
GPM GMI AT 0706Z, GCOM AMSR2 AT 0802Z AND SSMIS F18 AT 1028Z SHOW
THAT THE EYE IS VERY LARGE, WITH A RADIUS APPROACHING 55NQ, PROMPTING
US TO LIMIT POSITIVE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DT DURING DVORAK EYE
ANALYSIS. THE FINAL T RETAINED IS 4.5, CORRESPONDING TO A WIND
INTENSITY OF 70KT. BUT THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE MUCH LOWER, AND THE
2332Z SAR PASS MEASURED 60KT. A MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY OF 65KT WAS
THEREFORE CHOSEN, CLASSIFYING TALIAH AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

TALIAH IS CAUGHT IN THE MAIN FLOW OF A RIDGE OF MID- AND
UPPER-TROPOSPHERE AIR, WHICH IS STEERING ITS COURSE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST. EVEN THOUGH HE'S STILL JUST EAST OF 90AO, HE SHOULD
CROSS IT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS RIDGE
SHOULD FORCE IT TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS IN THE COMING
HOURS. FROM FRIDAY, THE EMERGENCE OF A NEW RIDGE OVER THE
MASCAREIGNES SHOULD IMPOSE A COUNTER-DIRECTIONAL FLOW AND SLOW THE
SYSTEM'S COURSE. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AS TALIAH IS ON THE NOD-WEST
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO HEAD BACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, ACCELERATING ITS COURSE.

TALIAH IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 26-27AOC, LOW WIND SHEAR, A GOOD SUPPLY OF
MOIST AIR AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THESE FACTORS WILL ENABLE
IT TO MAINTAIN ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FOR AROUND ANOTHER 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, TOMORROW IT SHOULD BE CIRCULATING OVER COOLER WATERS
WITH LOWER OCEAN POTENTIAL. THE DEEP SHEAR IS ALSO STRENGTHENING FROM
TOMORROW EVENING, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
TALIAH INTENSITY SHOULD THEREFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121321
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/9/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (TALIAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 90.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 102 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 650 SO: 530 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SO: 400 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 210 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2025 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 675 SO: 520 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 405 SO: 345 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 13/02/2025 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 595 SO: 445 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 360 SO: 295 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 45

36H: 14/02/2025 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 480 SO: 415 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 45

48H: 14/02/2025 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SO: 415 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 45

60H: 15/02/2025 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 445 SO: 390 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 120

72H: 15/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SO: 510 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 325 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2025 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 545 SO: 380 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 65

120H: 17/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SO: 400 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

LE SYSTEME TROPICAL TALIAH A ETE REPRIS A 12UTC PAR LE CMRS DE LA
REUNION. AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
CONSOLIDEE PRES DU CENTRE ET ON REMARQUE L'APPARITION D'UN OEIL. LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES GPM GMI DE 0706Z, GCOM AMSR2 DE 0802Z ET SSMIS F18
DE 1028Z MONTRENT QUE C'EST OEIL EST TRES LARGE AVEC UN RAYON
APPROCHANT 55NQ, CE QUI INCITE A LIMITER LES AJUSTEMENTS POSITIFS DU
DT LORS DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL. LE T FINAL RETENU EST DE 4.5,
CORRESPONDANT A UNE INTENSITE DE VENT DE 70KT. MAIS LES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES SONT BIEN INFERIEURES ET LA PASSE SAR DE 2332Z MESURAIT
60KT. C'EST DONC UNE INTENSITE DE VENT MAX A 65KT QUI EST CHOISIE,
CLASSANT TALIAH AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

TALIAH EST PRIS DANS LE FLUX DIRECTEUR D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET
HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, QUI ORIENTE SA COURSE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST. MEME
SI IL SE TROUVE ENCORE JUSTE A L'EST DU 90AOE IL DEVRAIT LE TRAVERSER
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. LE RENFORCEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT
L'OBLIGER DANS LES HEURES A VENIR A SE DIRIGER PLUS RAPIDEMENT VERS
LE SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI L'APPARITION D'UNE NOUVELLE
DORSALE SUR LES MASCAREIGNES DEVRAIT IMPOSER UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
CONTRAIRE ET RALENTIR LA COURSE DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, ALORS
QUE TALIAH SE RETROUVE SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DE CETTE DORSALE, LE
SYSTEME REPARTIRAIT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT SA
COURSE.

TALIAH BENEFICIE ENCORE DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, AVEC
UNE TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE DE LA MER DE 26-27AOC, UN FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT, UNE BONNE ALIMENTATION EN AIR HUMIDE ET UNE BONNE
CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES. CES FACTEURS LUI PERMETTENT DE
MAINTENIR SON INTENSITE AU STADE DE CYCLONE DURANT ENCORE ENVIRON 24
HEURES. CEPENDANT IL DEVRAIT CIRCULER DES DEMAIN SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE PLUS FAIBLE. LE CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND SE RENFORCE EGALEMENT A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR ALORS QU'UN
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVE PAR L'OUEST. L'INTENSITE DE TALIAH DEVRAIT
DONC DIMINUER PROGRESSIVEMENT A COMPTER DE DEMAIN APRES-MIDI OU SOIR.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121229 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (TALIAH) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 90.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 350 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 480 NM IN THE YY SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 165
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 225 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 285 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/13 AT 00 UTC:
21.1 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 NM SE: 365 NM SW: 280 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/13 AT 12 UTC:
22.6 S / 86.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 320 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121221
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (TALIAH) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 90.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 350 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 450 NM IN THE YY SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 165
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 225 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 285 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/13 AT 00 UTC:
21.1 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 NM SE: 365 NM SW: 280 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/13 AT 12 UTC:
22.6 S / 86.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 320 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 90.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 90.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.7S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.3S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.5S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.3S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 24.3S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.4S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 90.3E.
12FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(VINCE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 120649
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:18S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0649 UTC 12 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal seven south (17.7S)
longitude ninety decimal six east (90.6E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 980 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 180 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 200 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 180 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 200 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 12 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 19.8 south 89.1 east
Central pressure 976 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre over water.
At 0600 UTC 13 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.5 south 87.3 east
Central pressure 979 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by Mauritius Meteorological Service.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 120051
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:17S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0051 UTC 12 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal eight south (16.8S)
longitude ninety decimal eight east (90.8E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 980 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 200 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 200 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 12 February: Within 45 nautical miles of 18.8 south 89.7 east
Central pressure 976 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre over water.
At 0000 UTC 13 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 20.5 south 88.1 east
Central pressure 976 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 12 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 91.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 91.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.6S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.4S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.1S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.4S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.9S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.6S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.7S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 91.5E.
11FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 111840
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:16S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1840 UTC 11 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal eight south (15.8S)
longitude ninety one decimal three east (91.3E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 00 UTC 12
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

By 1200 UTC 12 February winds above 34 knots expanding to within 150 nautical
miles in NE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 12 February: Within 45 nautical miles of 17.4 south 90.4 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre over water.
At 1800 UTC 12 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 19.6 south 89.3 east
Central pressure 977 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 12 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 111237
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:15S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1237 UTC 11 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal three south (15.3S)
longitude ninety one decimal eight east (91.8E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 988 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 1200 UTC 12
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 110 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

By 1200 UTC 12 February winds above 34 knots expanding to within 150 nautical
miles in NE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 12 February: Within 45 nautical miles of 16.5 south 90.9 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre over water.
At 1200 UTC 12 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 18.4 south 90.0 east
Central pressure 977 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 11 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 92.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 92.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.7S 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.2S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.0S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.7S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.9S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.9S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.7S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 91.9E.
11FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 110647
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:15S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0647 UTC 11 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal six south (14.6S)
longitude ninety two decimal zero east (92.0E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 991 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 0600 UTC 12
February.

From 1200 UTC 11 February winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE
quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 110 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 55 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.


By 0600 UTC 12 February winds above 34 knots expanding to within 150 nautical
miles in NE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 11 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.9 south 91.3 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre over water.
At 0600 UTC 12 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 17.5 south 90.5 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 11 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 110044
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:14S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0044 UTC 11 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal three south (14.3S)
longitude ninety two decimal one east (92.1E)
Recent movement : west at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 993 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 140 nautical miles of the centre in southern quadrants and 120 nautical
miles in northern quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 0000 UTC 12
February.

From 1200 UTC 11 February winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE
quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

From 1800 UTC 11 February winds above 34 knots expanding to within 140 nautical
miles of the centre in southern quadrants and 120 nautical miles in northern
quadrants with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 11 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.4 south 91.5 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre over water.
At 0000 UTC 12 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.7 south 90.7 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 11 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 92.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 92.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.6S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.6S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.9S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.9S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.2S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.6S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 92.2E.
10FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 101843
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:14S093E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1843 UTC 10 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal three south (14.3S)
longitude ninety two decimal five east (92.5E)
Recent movement : west at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 993 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 140 nautical miles of the centre in southern quadrants and 120 nautical
miles in northern quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 1800 UTC 11
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 11 February
with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre, expanding to within
140 nautical miles of the centre in southern quadrants and 120 nautical miles
in northern quadrants by 1800 UTC 11 February with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 11 February: Within 45 nautical miles of 15.0 south 91.7 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre over water.
At 1800 UTC 11 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.1 south 91.0 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 11 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 101234
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:14S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1234 UTC 10 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal four south (14.4S)
longitude ninety two decimal four east (92.4E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 1200 UTC 11
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre by 0600 UTC 11 February
with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre, increasing to within
120 nautical miles of centre by 1200 UTC 11 February with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 11 February: Within 45 nautical miles of 15.0 south 91.9 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre over water.
At 1200 UTC 11 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.8 south 91.3 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 10 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 92.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 92.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.2S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.9S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.9S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.2S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.3S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.4S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.7S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 92.8E.
10FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z AND 110900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 100653
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:14S093E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0653 UTC 10 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 35 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal two south (14.2S)
longitude ninety two decimal seven east (92.7E)
Recent movement : northwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 993 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0600 UTC 11
February.

From 0000 UTC 11 February winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of
centre with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 10 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.3 south 92.4 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre over water.
At 0600 UTC 11 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.1 south 91.9 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 10 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 100100
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:15S093E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0100 UTC 10 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal seven south (14.7S)
longitude ninety three decimal zero east (93.0E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 11
February.

From 0000 UTC 11 February winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of
centre with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 10 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.5 south 92.5 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre over water.
At 0000 UTC 11 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 14.8 south 92.1 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 10 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 93.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 93.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.5S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.5S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.1S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.1S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.3S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.9S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.0S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 93.2E.
09FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z AND 102100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 091857
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:15S094E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1857 UTC 9 FEBRUARY 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal nine south (14.9S)
longitude ninety three decimal five east (93.5E)
Recent movement : northwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1002 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 1800 UTC 10
February.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles centre in northern quadrants by
0600 UTC 10 February, extending to all quadrants within 100 nautical miles of
centre by 1800 UTC 10 February with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 10 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.5 south 93.0 east
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre over water.
At 1800 UTC 10 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 14.5 south 92.4 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 10 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 091234
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:15S094E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1234 UTC 9 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal three south (15.3S)
longitude ninety three decimal five east (93.5E)
Recent movement : west at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 1200 UTC 10
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre from 0600 UTC 10
February with high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in NE, SW and NW
quadrants, extending to all quadrants by 0000 UTC 10 February, then extending
to within 100 nautical miles of centre by 1200 UTC 10 February with rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 10 February: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.9 south 93.1 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre over water.
At 1200 UTC 10 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 14.6 south 92.6 east
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 09 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 93.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 93.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.8S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.5S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.4S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.0S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.0S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.4S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.6S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 93.6E.
09FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 090651
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:16S094E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0651 UTC 9 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal five south (15.5S)
longitude ninety four decimal one east (94.1E)
Recent movement : west at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0600 UTC 10
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre from 0600 UTC 10
February with high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant, extending to 100
nautical miles by 0000 UTC
and within 0 nautical miles in SE quadrant, extending to 90 nautical miles by
0000 UTC 10 February
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 09 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.1 south 93.5 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre over water.
At 0600 UTC 10 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 14.6 south 92.9 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 09 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 090059
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:15S095E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0059 UTC 9 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal four south (15.4S)
longitude ninety four decimal nine east (94.9E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 10
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre from 0000 UTC 10
February with high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant, extending to 100
nautical miles by 0000 UTC
and within 0 nautical miles in SE quadrant, extending to 100 nautical miles
by 0600 UTC
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 09 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.4 south 93.6 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre over water.
At 0000 UTC 10 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 14.8 south 92.9 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 09 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 94.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 94.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.4S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.1S 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.8S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.1S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.1S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.1S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.8S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 94.4E.
08FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
081800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 081906
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:16S095E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1906 UTC 8 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal five south (15.5S)
longitude ninety five decimal one east (95.0E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 65 knots by 1800 UTC 09
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre from 0600 UTC 09
February with high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant, extending to 100
nautical miles by 0000 UTC
and within 0 nautical miles in SE quadrant, extending to 90 nautical miles by
0000 UTC
and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 09 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.2 south 94.0 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre over water.
At 1800 UTC 09 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 14.8 south 93.6 east
Central pressure 975 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 09 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 081310
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:16S095E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1310 UTC 8 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal seven south (15.7S)
longitude ninety five decimal zero east (95.0E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 1200 UTC 09
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre from 0000 UTC 09
February with high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 09 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.6 south 93.7 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre over water.
At 1200 UTC 09 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 15.2 south 93.0 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 08 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 95.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 95.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.8S 94.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.7S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.4S 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.0S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.2S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.3S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.6S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 95.6E.
08FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 080640
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:16S096E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0640 UTC 8 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal eight south (15.8S)
longitude ninety five decimal six east (95.6E)
Recent movement : west at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 0600 UTC 09
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre from 0000 UTC 09
February with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 08 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.9 south 94.2 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre over water.
At 0600 UTC 09 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 15.6 south 93.2 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre over water.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 08 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU07 APRF 080410
IDW23300

40:2:2:24:16S096E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0410 UTC 8 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude ninety six decimal zero east (96.0E)
Recent movement : west at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 993 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 09
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 08 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.2 south 94.5 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre over water.
At 0000 UTC 09 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 15.7 south 93.1 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre over water.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 08 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 080046
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:16S096E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0046 UTC 8 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude ninety six decimal zero east (96.0E)
Recent movement : west at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 993 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 09
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre from 0000 UTC 09
February with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 08 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.2 south 94.5 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 09 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 15.7 south 93.1 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 08 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 96.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 96.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.9S 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.6S 93.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.2S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.5S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.9S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.2S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.2S 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 96.4E.
07FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216
NM SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z AND 082100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 071849
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:16S097E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1849 UTC 7 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude ninety seven decimal zero east (97.0E)
Recent movement : west at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 991 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 1800 UTC 08
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre from 1800 UTC 08
February with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 08 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.1 south 95.1 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 08 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.9 south 93.7 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 08 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 071244
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:16S098E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1244 UTC 7 FEBRUARY 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal two south (16.2S)
longitude ninety eight decimal one east (98.1E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 993 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 1200 UTC 08
February.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 08 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.2 south 96.0 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 08 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.1 south 94.4 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 07 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 99.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 99.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.0S 97.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.0S 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 070645
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:16S099E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0645 UTC 7 FEBRUARY 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude ninety nine decimal three east (99.3E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 07 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.7 south 97.1 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 08 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.7 south 94.9 east
Central pressure 991 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 07 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 070047
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S100E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0047 UTC 7 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal two south (15.2S)
longitude one hundred decimal two east (100.2E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 989 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 07 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.4 south 98.6 east
Central pressure 991 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 08 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.6 south 96.1 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 07 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 101.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 101.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.7S 99.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.3S 97.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.8S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.7S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.3S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.1S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.3S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 101.0E.
06FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z
AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 061849
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S101E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1849 UTC 6 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal eight south (14.8S)
longitude one hundred and one decimal four east (101.4E)
Recent movement : west at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 989 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas and heavy swell.

From 1800 UTC 07 February, winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of
centre with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 07 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.9 south 99.3 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 07 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.5 south 97.0 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 07 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 061258
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S103E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1258 UTC 6 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal nine south (14.9S)
longitude one hundred and two decimal six east (102.6E)
Recent movement : west at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 987 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 1200 UTC 07
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 07 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.6 south 100.5 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 07 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.3 south 98.2 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 06 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 060648
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S103E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0648 UTC 6 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal eight south (14.8S)
longitude one hundred and three decimal three east (103.3E)
Recent movement : west at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 987 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in western and northern
quadrants with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 130 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 06 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.4 south 100.8 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 07 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 15.8 south 98.5 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 06 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 060049
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S105E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0049 UTC 6 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal eight south (14.8S)
longitude one hundred and five decimal three east (105.3E)
Recent movement : west at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 982 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre in western and northern
quadrants with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 06 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.3 south 102.9 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 07 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 15.8 south 100.2 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 06 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.0S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.4S 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.8S 99.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.9S 97.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.5S 94.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.3S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.2S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 105.5E.
05FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 553
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
051800Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z
IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 051855
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S106E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1855 UTC 5 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal eight south (14.8S)
longitude one hundred and five decimal eight east (105.8E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 983 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre in western and northern
quadrants with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 06 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.2 south 103.1 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 06 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.6 south 101.0 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 06 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 051246
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S106E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1246 UTC 5 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal two south (15.2S)
longitude one hundred and six decimal three east (106.3E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 980 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre easing to 50 knots by 1200 UTC 06
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre in western and northern
quadrants with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 06 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.1 south 104.2 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 06 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.4 south 102.1 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 05 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.9S 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.1S 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.6S 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.0S 97.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.9S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.8S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.7S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 106.9E.
05FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 571
NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 050658
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S107E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0658 UTC 5 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal four south (15.4S)
longitude one hundred and seven decimal one east (107.1E)
Recent movement : west at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 981 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre easing to 50 knots by 0600 UTC 06
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre in western and northern
quadrants with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 05 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.3 south 105.0 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 06 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.4 south 102.7 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 05 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 050053
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:16S108E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0053 UTC 5 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal seven south (15.7S)
longitude one hundred and eight decimal two east (108.2E)
Recent movement : west at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 65 knots
Central pressure: 973 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre easing to 55 knots by 1200 UTC 05
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very high seas
easing by 0600 UTC 05 February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 05 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.3 south 106.2 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 06 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.3 south 103.8 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 05 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.9S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.8S 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.9S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.2S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.8S 95.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.8S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.2S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 108.9E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 041856
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:16S110E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1856 UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 25 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal seven south (15.7S)
longitude one hundred and nine decimal five east (109.5E)
Recent movement : west at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 75 knots
Central pressure: 965 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 140 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre easing to 70 knots by 0600 UTC 05
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 140 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 05 February: Within 45 nautical miles of 15.4 south 107.3 east
Central pressure 969 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 05 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.2 south 105.1 east
Central pressure 969 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 05 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 041248
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:16S110E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1248 UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 20 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal seven south (15.7S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal four east (110.4E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 968 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 140 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre increasing to 75 knots by 0000 UTC 05
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 140 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 05 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.7 south 108.4 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 05 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.4 south 106.3 east
Central pressure 969 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 04 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.8S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.8S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.7S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.8S 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.7S 97.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.9S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.3S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 110.4E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z AND 050900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 040649
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:16S111E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0649 UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal five south (15.5S)
longitude one hundred and eleven decimal zero east (111.0E)
Recent movement : west at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 969 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 160 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre increasing to 80 knots by 1800 UTC 04
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 160 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 04 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.9 south 109.1 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 05 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 15.7 south 106.6 east
Central pressure 961 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 04 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 040051
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S112E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0051 UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal two south (15.2S)
longitude one hundred and twelve decimal one east (112.1E)
Recent movement : west at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 968 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre increasing to 80 knots by 1200 UTC 04
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 04 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.7 south 110.6 east
Central pressure 959 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 05 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 15.8 south 108.2 east
Central pressure 961 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 04 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 112.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 112.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.7S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.1S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.1S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.1S 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.6S 99.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.2S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.7S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 112.4E.
03FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421
NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z
IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S
(FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 031859
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S113E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1859 UTC 3 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 20 nautical miles
of
latitude fifteen decimal two south (15.2S)
longitude one hundred and thirteen decimal zero east (113.0E)
Recent movement : west at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 967 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre increasing to 80 knots by 1800 UTC 04
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 04 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.6 south 111.4 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 04 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.1 south 109.4 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 04 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 031257
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S114E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1257 UTC 3 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal one south (15.1S)
longitude one hundred and thirteen decimal six east (113.6E)
Recent movement : west at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 976 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 1200 UTC 04
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high seas
developing from 1800 UTC 3 February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 130 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 04 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.3 south 112.3 east
Central pressure 954 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 04 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.8 south 110.6 east
Central pressure 950 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 03 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 114.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 114.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.4S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.7S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.0S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.0S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.0S 101.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.7S 96.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.2S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 113.9E.
03FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432
NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 030647
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S114E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0647 UTC 3 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal one south (15.1S)
longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal four east (114.4E)
Recent movement : west at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 979 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre increasing to 95 knots by 0600 UTC 04
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high seas
developing after 1200 UTC 3 February.

Winds above 48 knots within 20 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 45 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 120 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 03 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.4 south 112.9 east
Central pressure 969 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 04 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.9 south 111.0 east
Central pressure 946 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 03 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 030055
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S115E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0055 UTC 3 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal zero south (15.0S)
longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal zero east (115.0E)
Recent movement : west at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 983 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 85 knots by 0000 UTC 04
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high seas from
1200 UTC 03 February.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 03 February: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.2 south 113.7 east
Central pressure 976 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 04 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.6 south 112.0 east
Central pressure 955 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 03 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 115.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 115.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.5S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.2S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.4S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.5S 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.3S 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.4S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 115.1E.
02FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 977
MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT
030900Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 021851
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:15S116E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1851 UTC 2 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 35 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal zero south (15.0S)
longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal seven east (115.7E)
Recent movement : southwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 110 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 85 knots by 1800 UTC 03
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high seas from
0600 UTC 03 February.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 03 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.3 south 114.3 east
Central pressure 973 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 03 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.7 south 112.6 east
Central pressure 956 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 03 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 021500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 116.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.6S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.9S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.3S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.6S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.8S 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.2S 100.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.2S 96.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 115.9E.
02FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z, AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGE FROM A SIX-HOURLY WARNING TO
A
12 HOURLY WARNING.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 116.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.6S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 021249
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:14S116E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1249 UTC 2 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal three south (14.3S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal one east (116.1E)
Recent movement : west at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 982 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 110 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 80 knots by 1200 UTC 03
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high seas from
0000 UTC 03 February.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 03 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.6 south 114.7 east
Central pressure 973 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 03 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.1 south 113.4 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 02 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 020647
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:14S116E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0647 UTC 2 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Taliah was centred within 10 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal five south (14.5S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal two east (116.2E)
Recent movement : west at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 991 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 110 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 75 knots by 0600 UTC 03
February.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre from 1800 UTC 03
February with high seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant from 1200 UTC 02 February
and within 110 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 110 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 02 February: Within 30 nautical miles of 14.7 south 114.5 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 03 February: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.8 south 113.1 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 02 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010152ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 117.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 117.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.0S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.2S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
// END PART 01 //