Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for VINCE-25 in Cocos (Keeling) Islands from 01 Feb 2025 06:00 UTC to 12 Feb 2025 06:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for VINCE-25

in Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

12/02 06:39 WTIO30FMEE120638

12/02 06:39 WTIO31FMEE120638

12/02 06:07 WTIO22FMEE120601

12/02 03:35 WTXS32PGTW120300

12/02 00:23 WTIO30FMEE120017

12/02 00:23 WTIO31FMEE120017

12/02 00:21 WTXS32PGTW112100COR

12/02 00:09 WTIO22FMEE120008

11/02 19:53 WTXS32PGTW112100

11/02 18:56 WTIO30FMEE111855

11/02 18:56 WTIO31FMEE111855

11/02 18:27 WTIO22FMEE111824

11/02 12:24 WTIO30FMEE111217

11/02 12:24 WTIO31FMEE111217

11/02 12:00 WTIO22FMEE111159

11/02 08:18 WTXS32PGTW110900

11/02 06:47 WTIO30FMEE110641

11/02 06:47 WTIO31FMEE110641

11/02 06:04 WTIO22FMEE110603

11/02 00:14 WTIO22FMEE110012

10/02 20:24 WTXS32PGTW102100

10/02 18:27 WTIO22FMEE101823CCA

10/02 18:18 WTIO22FMEE101816

10/02 12:56 WTIO30FMEE101225

10/02 12:56 WTIO31FMEE101225

10/02 12:11 WTIO20FMEE101209

10/02 08:05 WTXS32PGTW100900

10/02 06:50 WTIO30FMEE100628

10/02 06:50 WTIO31FMEE100628

10/02 06:11 WTIO20FMEE100609

10/02 00:40 WTIO30FMEE100022

10/02 00:40 WTIO31FMEE100022

10/02 00:11 WTIO20FMEE100007

09/02 19:53 WTXS32PGTW092100

09/02 18:41 WTIO30FMEE091819

09/02 18:41 WTIO31FMEE091819

09/02 18:11 WTIO20FMEE091810

09/02 12:21 WTIO20FMEE091205

09/02 07:50 WTXS32PGTW090900

09/02 06:09 WTIO20FMEE090607

09/02 01:20 WTIO30FMEE090118

09/02 01:20 WTIO31FMEE090118

09/02 01:17 WTIO30FMEE090035

09/02 01:17 WTIO31FMEE090035

09/02 00:19 WTIO20FMEE090018

08/02 19:45 WTXS32PGTW082100

08/02 19:33 WTIO30FMEE081834

08/02 19:33 WTIO31FMEE081834

08/02 18:12 WTIO20FMEE081810

08/02 12:38 WTIO30FMEE081227

08/02 12:38 WTIO31FMEE081227

08/02 08:32 WTXS32PGTW080900

08/02 06:56 WTIO30FMEE080652CCA

08/02 06:56 WTIO31FMEE080652CCA

08/02 06:30 WTIO30FMEE080611

08/02 06:30 WTIO31FMEE080611

08/02 06:10 WTIO20FMEE080608

08/02 01:28 WTIO30FMEE080043

08/02 01:28 WTIO31FMEE080043

08/02 00:22 WTIO20FMEE080020

07/02 19:56 WTXS32PGTW072100

07/02 19:05 WTIO30FMEE071831

07/02 19:05 WTIO31FMEE071831

07/02 18:16 WTIO20FMEE071815

07/02 13:09 WTIO30FMEE071231

07/02 13:09 WTIO31FMEE071231

07/02 12:12 WTIO20FMEE071212

07/02 07:36 WTIO30FMEE070632

07/02 07:36 WTIO31FMEE070632

07/02 06:11 WTIO20FMEE070609

07/02 00:27 WTIO30FMEE070014

07/02 00:27 WTIO31FMEE070014

07/02 00:09 WTIO20FMEE070008

06/02 20:04 WTXS32PGTW062100

06/02 18:24 WTIO30FMEE061812

06/02 18:24 WTIO31FMEE061812

06/02 18:08 WTIO20FMEE061807

06/02 12:41 WTIO30FMEE061240CCA

06/02 12:41 WTIO31FMEE061240CCA

06/02 12:39 WTIO30FMEE061228

06/02 12:39 WTIO31FMEE061228

06/02 12:05 WTIO20FMEE061203

06/02 07:59 WTXS32PGTW060900

06/02 06:53 WTIO30FMEE060643

06/02 06:53 WTIO31FMEE060643

06/02 06:09 WTIO20FMEE060606

06/02 00:41 WTIO30FMEE060029

06/02 00:41 WTIO31FMEE060029

06/02 00:20 WTIO20FMEE060018

05/02 18:48 WTIO30FMEE051822

05/02 18:48 WTIO31FMEE051822

05/02 18:13 WTIO20FMEE051812

05/02 12:38 WTIO30FMEE051226

05/02 12:38 WTIO31FMEE051226

05/02 12:09 WTIO20FMEE051208

05/02 08:21 WTXS32PGTW050900

05/02 07:18 WTIO30FMEE050708

05/02 07:18 WTIO31FMEE050708

05/02 07:01 WTIO20FMEE050700CCA

05/02 06:24 WTIO20FMEE050623

05/02 00:49 WTIO30FMEE050047

05/02 00:49 WTIO31FMEE050047

05/02 00:03 WTIO20FMEE050002

04/02 19:40 WTXS32PGTW042100

04/02 18:46 WTIO30FMEE041842

04/02 18:46 WTIO31FMEE041842

04/02 18:01 WTIO20FMEE041801

04/02 12:57 WTIO30FMEE041233

04/02 12:57 WTIO31FMEE041233

04/02 12:17 WTIO20FMEE041214

04/02 07:28 WTXS32PGTW040900

04/02 06:55 WTAU06APRF040654

04/02 00:54 WTAU06APRF040053

03/02 18:50 WTAU06APRF031849

03/02 12:51 WTAU06APRF031251

03/02 07:56 WTXS32PGTW030900

03/02 06:56 WTAU06APRF030656

03/02 00:58 WTAU06APRF030057

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/8/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.1 S / 70.8 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 81 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/12 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 335 SW: 165 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2025/02/13 06 UTC: 40.6 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 390 SW: 185 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
AND HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED NEAR THE CENTER OF VINCE, IN LINE WITH THE
DECREASE IN OCEAN POTENTIAL AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. A SAR SWATH
AT 0041Z CONFIRMED MAXIMUM WINDS CLOSE TO 65KT. IN VIEW OF THE
WEAKENING TREND, THE INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 60KT.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK: VINCE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
INITIALLY STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TODAY, THE APPROACH OF A HIGH ALTITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST INDUCES A
SOUTH-EAST TRACK WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. ON THIS PATH, VINCE
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE AWAY TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES, BRINGING IT INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN IN AN
UNFAVORABLE CONTEXT OF HIGH SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OCEAN
POTENTIAL, WHILE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE AREA TOMORROW THURSDAY.

APART FROM ITS CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM, NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LAND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON
TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT
12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120638
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/8/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 31.1 S / 70.8 E
(TRENTE UN DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 81 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2025 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 335 SO: 165 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 35

24H: 13/02/2025 06 UTC: 40.6 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 390 SO: 185 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUE DE
FAIBLIR ET A PRESQUE DISPARUE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DE VINCE, EN LIEN
AVEC LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET DE L'ENTRAINEMENT D'AIR SEC.
UNE PASSE SAR A 0041Z A CONFIRME DES VENTS MAXIMAUX PROCHE DE 65KT.
AU VU DE LA TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A
60KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : VINCE POURSUIT SA ROUTE
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, D'ABORD PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE LOCALISEE A
L'EST-SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. AUJOURD'HUI, L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST INDUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST QUI S'ACCELERA
PROGRESSIVEMENT. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE S'ELOIGNERA RAPIDEMENT
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LE FAISANT PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE
DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR DANS
UN CONTEXTE DEFAVORABLE AVEC LE FORT CISAILLEMENT ET LA BAISSE
SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, TOUT EN PERDANT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE FONDRE AU SEIN D'UNE LARGE ZONE
DEPRESSIONAIRE DEMAIN JEUDI.

A PART LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM, AUCUN IMPACT
SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT
DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN EMIS A
12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 120601
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (VINCE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.1 S / 70.8 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM AROUND THE CENTER AND UP TO
330 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/12 AT 18 UTC:
34.5 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/13 AT 06 UTC:
40.6 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 320 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 215 NM
34 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 130 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE GMDSS MARINE
WARNINGS FQIO20 FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06Z AND 18Z BY METEO
FRANCE REUNION.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 30.0S 70.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0S 70.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 32.9S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 30.7S 70.7E.
12FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 922
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY REVEALS A HIGHLY SHEARED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE 30KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 24-25C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST CONTINUE TO ROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALREADY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD,
TC 13S WILL BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SHEAR ABOVE 35KTS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, CONTRIBUTING TO THE COMPLETION OF
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
120000Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 26 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120017
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/8/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.0 S / 70.4 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/12 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SW: 155 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/13 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 390 SW: 165 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/13 12 UTC: 45.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 805 SE: 405 SW: 270 NW: 685
34 KT NE: 435 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 435
48 KT NE: 215 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
NEAR VINCE'S CENTER, REFLECTING THE DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
THE INCREASE IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OVERALL, THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. A LATE ASCAT PASS (1742Z) CONFIRMED MAXIMUM
WINDS CLOSE TO 70KT AT 18Z. IN VIEW OF THE WEAKENING TREND, THE
INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 65KT.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK: VINCE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
INITIALLY STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM.TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST SHOULD
INDUCE A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE.
ON THIS PATH, VINCE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE AWAY TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES,
BRINGING IT INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN IN AN
UNFAVORABLE CONTEXT OF HIGH SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OCEAN
POTENTIAL, WHILE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE AREA TOMORROW THURSDAY.

APART FROM ITS CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM, NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LAND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120017
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/8/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.0 S / 70.4 E
(TRENTE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 971 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2025 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SO: 155 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

24H: 13/02/2025 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 390 SO: 165 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 13/02/2025 12 UTC: 45.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 805 SE: 405 SO: 270 NO: 685
34 KT NE: 435 SE: 270 SO: 0 NO: 435
48 KT NE: 215 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUE DE
FAIBLIR A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DE VINCE, EN LIEN AVEC LA BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET DE L'ENTRAINEMENT D'AIR SEC. DANS L'ENSEMBLE,
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PEU EVOLUEE. UN PASSE ASCAT TARDIVE
(1742Z) A CONFIRME DES VENTS MAXIMAUX PROCHE DE 70KT A 18Z. AU VU DE
LA TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 65KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : VINCE POURSUIT SA ROUTE
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, D'ABORD PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE LOCALISEE A
L'EST-SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. AUJOURD'HUI, L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT INDUIRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
PLUS SUD-EST QUI S'ACCELERA PROGRESSIVEMENT. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE,
VINCE S'ELOIGNERA RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LE FAISANT
PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN FIN DE NUIT
PROCHAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR DANS
UN CONTEXTE DEFAVORABLE AVEC LE FORT CISAILLEMENT ET LA BAISSE
SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, TOUT EN PERDANT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE FONDRE AU SEIN D'UNE LARGE ZONE
DEPRESSIONAIRE DEMAIN JEUDI.

A PART LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM, AUCUN IMPACT
SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 112100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 021A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 021A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 28.9S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 31.3S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 34.8S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 40.6S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 70.3E.
11FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED 64 KNOT WIND RADII TO TAU 12
POSITION AND WARNING DESCRIPTION.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 120008
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (VINCE) 971 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.0 S / 70.4 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM AROUND THE CENTER AND UP TO
400 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/12 AT 12 UTC:
33.1 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/13 AT 00 UTC:
37.2 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 28.9S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 31.3S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 34.8S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 40.6S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 70.3E.
11FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
875 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 971 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111855
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/8/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.9 S / 70.2 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 390 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/12 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 360 SW: 220 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/12 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 370 SW: 165 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/02/13 06 UTC: 40.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 640 SE: 400 SW: 0 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR, VINCE'S CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO A CLASSIC
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM PATTERN, WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. 1357Z SAR DATA
SHOW THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED. AS A RESULT,
VINCE HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM. AMONG THE LATEST
DATA AVAILABLE FOR ESTIMATING MAX WIND, WE CAN CITE THE FOLLOWING
10MIN EQUIVALENT: 72KT FOR THE 0855Z AMSR2 (REMSS) PASS AND 81KT FOR
THE 1357Z SAR PASS. PENDING FURTHER DATA, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 70KT.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK: VINCE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
INITIALLY STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST
SHOULD INDUCE A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE. ON THIS PATH, VINCE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE AWAY TOWARDS
MID-LATITUDES, BRINGING IT INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF
AMSTERDAM LATE ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN IN AN
UNFAVORABLE CONTEXT OF HIGH SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OCEAN
POTENTIAL, WHILE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE AREA ON THURSDAY.

APART FROM ITS CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM, NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LAND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111855
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/8/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.9 S / 70.2 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 969 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 390 SO: 215 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 360 SO: 220 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 12/02/2025 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 370 SO: 165 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SO: 0 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 13/02/2025 06 UTC: 40.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 640 SE: 400 SO: 0 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 260 SO: 0 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, SOUS L'EFFET DU FORT CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE VINCE A EVOLUEE VERS UNE
CONFIGURATION CLASSIQUE DE SYSTEME POST TROPICAL, AVEC UN CENTRE
EXPOSE. LES DONNEES SAR DE 1357Z, MONTRENT QUE LA CIRCULATION DE
SURFACE EST DEVENUE ALLONGEE. EN CONSEQUENCE, VINCE A ETE CLASSE EN
SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL. PARMI LES DERNIERES DONNEES DISPONIBLES POUR
L'ESTIMATION DU VENT MAX, ON PEUT CITER EN EQUIVALENT 10MIN : 72KT
POUR LA PASSE AMSR2 (REMSS) DE 0855Z ET 81KT POUR LA PASSE SAR DE
1357Z. EN ATTENDANT D'AUTRES DONNEES COMPLEMENTAIRES, L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 70KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : VINCE POURSUIT SA ROUTE
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, D'ABORD PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE LOCALISEE A
L'EST-SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. PAR LA SUITE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI,
L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT
INDUIRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD-EST QUI S'ACCELERA PROGRESSIVEMENT.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE S'ELOIGNERA RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES, LE FAISANT PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE
D'AMSTERDAM EN FIN DE NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR DANS
UN CONTEXTE DEFAVORABLE AVEC LE FORT CISAILLEMENT ET LA BAISSE
SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, TOUT EN PERDANT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE FONDRE AU SEIN D'UNE LARGE ZONE
DEPRESSIONAIRE JEUDI.

A PART LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM, AUCUN IMPACT
SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 111824
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (VINCE) 969 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.9 S / 70.2 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM AROUND THE CENTER AND UP TO
400 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/12 AT 06 UTC:
31.5 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/12 AT 18 UTC:
34.8 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111217
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.0 S / 69.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 39 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/12 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/12 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 345 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/13 00 UTC: 36.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 380 SW: 165 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/13 12 UTC: 43.0 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 760 SE: 435 SW: 325 NW: 705
34 KT NE: 405 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 470
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2025/02/14 00 UTC: 50.3 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR, VINCE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO A SHEARED PATTERN.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE,
WITH TEMPORARILY COLDER SUMMITS. THE DVORAK T-ANALYSIS REMAINS FAIRLY
LOW, BUT DUE TO INERTIA REFLECTING STRONG WINDS, A CI OF 4.5 CAN BE
ASSIGNED. CLOSE TO SATCON ESTIMATES, THIS LEAVES 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF AROUND 70KT. VINCE IS STILL CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, BUT ITS INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: VINCE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
INITIALLY DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH ALTITUDE AND MID-TROPOSPHERE
LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS,
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INDUCE A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE.
ON THIS TRACK, VINCE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE AWAY TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES, PASSING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF
AMSTERDAM IN THE MORNING OF THURSDAY. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WITH A FAIRLY LOW
DISPERSION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE SHORT
TERM, SUBJECT TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR ACCOMPANIED BY INTRUSIONS OF DRY
AIR REACHING THE SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREAFTER, THE
WEAKENING WILL BE MORE GRADUAL. AFTER LEAVING A REMARKABLE MARK IN
TERMS OF OCEANIC CONTENT IN ITS WAKE, VINCE WILL BENEFIT FROM A
WEAKENING OCEANIC POTENTIAL FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. COMBINED WITH
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND INCREASED SHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO AMSTERDAM, WITH MEAN
WINDS OF AROUND 55KT.

APART FROM PASSING CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM, NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON LAND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111217
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.0 S / 69.8 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 969 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 39 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 465 SO: 390 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 390 SO: 285 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 45

24H: 12/02/2025 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 345 SO: 150 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 45

36H: 13/02/2025 00 UTC: 36.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 380 SO: 165 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 45

48H: 13/02/2025 12 UTC: 43.0 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 760 SE: 435 SO: 325 NO: 705
34 KT NE: 405 SE: 270 SO: 165 NO: 470
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 75

60H: 14/02/2025 00 UTC: 50.3 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, SOUS L'EFFET DU FORT CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE VINCE A EVOLUEE VERS UNE
CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE RESTE CONCENTREE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST, AVEC DES SOMMETS TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS FROIDS.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN T RESTE ASSEZ BASSE MAIS PAR INERTIE TRADUISANT
DES VENTS ENCORE FORTS, UN CI DE 4.5 PEUT ETRE ATTRIBUE. PROCHE DES
ESTIMATIONS DU SATCON, CELA LAISSE DES VENTS MOYENNES SUR 10 MINUTES
DE L'ORDRE DE 70KT. VINCE EST ENCORE CLASSE EN CYCLONE TROPICAL, MAIS
L'INTENSITE RISQUE DE FAIBLIR PLUS RAPIDEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : VINCE POURSUIT SA ROUTE
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, D'ABORD PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE LOCALISEE A L'EST-SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. PAR LA
SUITE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR
L'OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT INDUIRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD-EST QUI
S'ACCELERA PROGRESSIVEMENT. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE S'ELOIGNERA
RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LE FAISANT PASSER A PROXIMITE
IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN MATINEE DE JEUDI. LA PREVISION DU
CMRS EST UN CONSENSUS DES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, DONT LA
DISPERSION EST ASSEZ FAIBLE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'AFFAIBLIR SUR LES
COURTES ECHEANCES SOUMIS A UN FORT CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ACCOMPAGNE
D'INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC GAGNANT LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU SYSTEME. PAR LA
SUITE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SERA PLUS GRADUELLEMENT. APRES AVOIR LAISSER
UNE TRACE REMARQUABLE AU NIVEAU DU CONTENU OCEANIQUE DANS SON
SILLAGE, VINCE BENEFICIERA D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAIBLISSANT A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI. COMBINE A L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSSE
DU CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. IL DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE AU STADE DE
DEPRESSION EXTRA-TROPICALE LORS DE SON PASSAGE A PROXIMITE
D'AMSTERDAM, EN GARDANT DES VENTS MOYENS DE L'ORDRE DE 55KT.

A PART LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM, AUCUN IMPACT
SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 111159
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 969 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.0 S / 69.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
30.1 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/12 AT 12 UTC:
32.9 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 020
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 26.9S 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.9S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 31.2S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 34.8S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 40.1S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 69.4E.
11FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 771
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 69.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/11 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 435 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/12 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/12 18 UTC: 34.6 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 415 SW: 175 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/13 06 UTC: 38.9 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 640 SE: 470 SW: 380 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/13 18 UTC: 44.0 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 970 SE: 405 SW: 250 NW: 545
34 KT NE: 530 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 370
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, VINCE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE,
ALTHOUGH SOME SUMMITS HAVE WARMED UP. STILL LINKED TO HIGH
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR VALUES, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED IN
THE SOUTH-EAST SEMICIRCLE, PRESENTING A CDO PATTERN THAT IS GRADUALLY
TENDING TOWARDS A SHEARED PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE WINDS OBTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY'S
SAR-RCM DATA AT 1350UTC, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS CARRIED OUT BY RSMC
LEAVES A CI OF 5.0- TO NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 75KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: VINCE CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
INITIALLY DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH ALTITUDE AND MID-TROPOSPHERE
LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS,
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INDUCE A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE.
ON THIS TRACK, VINCE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE AWAY TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES, PASSING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF
AMSTERDAM IN THE MORNING OF THURSDAY. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WITH A FAIRLY LOW
DISPERSION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY,
SUBJECT TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR ACCOMPANIED BY INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
REACHING THE SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AFTER LEAVING A REMARKABLE
MARK IN TERMS OF OCEANIC CONTENT IN ITS WAKE, VINCE WILL BENEFIT FROM
A WEAKENING OCEANIC POTENTIAL FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. COMBINED WITH
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND INCREASED SHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO AMSTERDAM, WITH MEAN
WINDS OF AROUND 55KT.

APART FROM PASSING CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM, NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON LAND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110641
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.8 S / 69.6 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 966 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 465 SO: 390 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/02/2025 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 435 SO: 305 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55

24H: 12/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 12/02/2025 18 UTC: 34.6 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 415 SO: 175 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 13/02/2025 06 UTC: 38.9 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 640 SE: 470 SO: 380 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 13/02/2025 18 UTC: 44.0 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 970 SE: 405 SO: 250 NO: 545
34 KT NE: 530 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 370
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE VINCE A
PEU EVOLUEE AVEC TOUTEFOIS DES SOMMETS QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFES.
TOUJOURS EN LIEN AVEC DES VALEURS ELEVEES DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SE CONCENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD-EST, PRESENTANT AINSI UNE CONFIGURATION DE CDO QUI TEND
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE. BIEN QUE LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES CONTINUENT DE BAISSER SOUS ESTIMANT AINSI LES
VENTS OBTENUS PAR LES DONNEES SAR-RCM DE LA VEILLE A 1350UTC,
L'ANALYSE DVORAK FAITE PAR LE CMRS LAISSE UN CI DE 5.0- AFIN DE NOTER
LE POTENTIEL DE VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 75KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : VINCE POURSUIT SA ROUTE
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, D'ABORD PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE LOCALISEE A L'EST-SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. PAR LA
SUITE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR
L'OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT INDUIRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD-EST QUI
S'ACCELERA PROGRESSIVEMENT. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE S'ELOIGNERA
RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LE FAISANT PASSER A PROXIMITE
IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN MATINEE DE JEUDI. LA PREVISION DU
CMRS EST UN CONSENSUS DES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, DONT LA
DISPERSION EST ASSEZ FAIBLE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'AFFAIBLIR
GRADUELLEMENT, SOUMIS A UN FORT CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ACCOMPAGNE D'
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC GAGNANT LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU SYSTEME. APRES
AVOIR LAISSER UNE TRACE REMARQUABLE AU NIVEAU DU CONTENU OCEANIQUE
DANS SON SILLAGE, VINCE BENEFICIERA D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
FAIBLISSANT A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. COMBINE A L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE
ET A LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT PERDRE
SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. IL DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE AU STADE DE
DEPRESSION EXTRA-TROPICALE LORS DE SON PASSAGE A PROXIMITE
D'AMSTERDAM, EN GARDANT DES VENTS MOYENS DE L'ORDRE DE 55KT.

A PART LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM, AUCUN IMPACT
SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 110603
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 69.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/11 AT 18 UTC:
28.9 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/12 AT 06 UTC:
31.3 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 110012
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 68.7 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/11 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
30.5 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 24.9S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.0S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.9S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 31.4S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 35.4S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 46.9S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 68.6E.
10FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 101823 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 959 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 68.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
27.4 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/11 AT 18 UTC:
29.4 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 101816
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 959 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 68.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 125 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 3000 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT4

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
27.4 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/11 AT 18 UTC:
29.4 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101225
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 68.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/11 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 435 SW: 285 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/11 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/12 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 415 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/12 12 UTC: 33.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 370 SW: 195 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/13 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 405 SW: 175 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 55

72H: 2025/02/13 12 UTC: 41.3 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 835 SE: 480 SW: 215 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 455 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 260

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS FLUCTUATED WHILE
HOLDING STEADY. HOWEVER, THE EYE STRUCTURE IS LESS CLEAR-CUT AND IS
STRUGGLING AGAINST WIND SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSES OSCILLATE BETWEEN 5
AND 5.5. IN LINE WITH CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (WHICH OSCILLATE
BETWEEN 80 AND 90KT), VINCE IS MAINTAINED AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE WITH WINDS OF 85KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE CONTINUES TO TURN SOUTH, DRIVEN BY ITS
PROXIMITY TO A HIGH-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. VINCE
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH, MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY
TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES. THERE IS LITTLE DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS, BUT
IT INCREASES IN SPEED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN LATITUDES.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AMSTERDAM ISLAND EARLY ON
THURSDAY. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE, APPROACHING GFS IN THE SHORT TERM AND CLOSE TO IFS IN THE
MEDIUM TERM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DESPITE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR, VINCE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER
GOOD CONDITIONS (GOOD POLAR COAST ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, AND SURFACE
WATERS STILL SUFFICIENTLY ENERGETIC). ITS INTENSITY SHOULD THEREFORE
STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN, FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS, THE
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE MORE MARKEDLY, ALLOWING DRY AIR TO ENTER THE
SYSTEM. VINCE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN MORE NOTICEABLY FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS. THEN FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COLDER WATERS,
COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND INCREASED SHEAR, IT SHOULD
RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT PASSES OFF AMSTERDAM.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LAND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOUR=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101225
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.8 S / 68.4 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 953 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 445 SO: 390 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 435 SO: 285 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 11/02/2025 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 405 SO: 295 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 12/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 415 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 45

48H: 12/02/2025 12 UTC: 33.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 370 SO: 195 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

60H: 13/02/2025 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 405 SO: 175 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 55

72H: 13/02/2025 12 UTC: 41.3 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 835 SE: 480 SO: 215 NO: 465
34 KT NE: 455 SE: 305 SO: 185 NO: 260

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE A
FLUCTUE TOUT EN SE MAINTENANT. ON OBSERVE CEPENDANT QUE LA STRUCTURE
EN OEIL EST MOINS NETTE ET LUTTE CONTRE LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT. LES
ANALYSES DVORAK OSCILLENT ENTRE 5 ET 5.5. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS (QUI OSCILLENT ENTRE 80 ET 90KT), VINCE EST
MAINTENU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS DE 85KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE POURSUIT SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD,
PILOTE PAR LA PROXIMITE AVEC UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE A L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME. VINCE DEVRAIT RESTER SUR LA BORDURE EST DE CE THALWEG ET
S'ELOIGNER RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. IL A PEU DE
DISPENRSION ENTRE LES MODELES PUIS ELLE AUGMENTE EN VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT PLUS LE SYSTEME S'APPROCHE DES LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER A L'OUEST DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN DEBUT DE
JOURNEE DE JEUDI. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN CONSENSUS DES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES EN SE RAPPROCHANT DE GFS DANS LES
COURTES ECHEANCES ET PROCHE DE IFS SUR LES MOYENNES ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. DANS LES PROCHAINES 12H,
MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT UN PEU EN HAUSSE, VINCE CONTINUE DE
RENCONTRER DE BONNES CONDITIONS (BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CA TE
POLAIRE, ET EAUX DE SURFACE ENCORE SUFFISAMMENT ENERGETIQUES). SON
INTENSITE DEVRAIT DONC SE STABILISER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. PUIS
A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT PLUS
FRANCHEMENT AUGMENTER ET PERMETTRE DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DANS LE
SYSTEME. VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS NOTABLEMENT A PARTIR DE
MARDI. PUIS A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX
PLUS FROIDES COMBINEE A L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. IL DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE AU STADE DE
DEPRESSION EXTRA-TROPICALE A SON PASSAGE AU LARGE D'AMSTERDAM.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101209
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 953 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 68.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 125 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 3000 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/11 AT 00 UTC:
26.4 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/11 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.0S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 68.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/10 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 455 SW: 295 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/11 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SW: 285 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/11 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 435 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/12 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SW: 250 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/12 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 425 SW: 185 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 45

72H: 2025/02/13 06 UTC: 39.2 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 490 SW: 195 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, VINCE HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE AGAINST WIND
SHEAR (15KT ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 00UTC), WHICH IS INDUCING WEAKNESS
IN THE WEST-SIDE EYEWALL. DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3H GIVES A DT
OF 5.0. THE ASCAT PASS AT 0443Z REVEALED THE SYSTEM'S EXTENSIONS.
WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE, VINCE IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 85KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE CONTINUES TO TURN SOUTH, DRIVEN BY ITS
PROXIMITY TO A HIGH-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. VINCE
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH, MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY
TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES. THERE IS LITTLE DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS, BUT
IT INCREASES IN SPEED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN LATITUDES.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AMSTERDAM ISLAND EARLY ON
THURSDAY. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE, APPROACHING GFS IN THE SHORT TERM AND CLOSE TO IFS IN THE
MEDIUM TERM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE. OVER THE NEXT 12-24H, DESPITE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR, VINCE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER GOOD
CONDITIONS (GOOD POLAR COAST ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, AND SURFACE WATERS
STILL SUFFICIENTLY ENERGETIC). ITS INTENSITY SHOULD THEREFORE
STABILIZE TODAY. THEN, FROM THIS EVENING ONWARDS, THE SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE MORE MARKEDLY, ALLOWING DRY AIR TO ENTER THE SYSTEM. VINDCE
SHOULD THEN WEAKEN MORE NOTICEABLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. FROM
WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COLDER WATERS, COMBINED WITH
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND INCREASED SHEAR, IT SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AS IT PASSES OFF AMSTERDAM.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LAND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOUR=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100628
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.0 S / 68.4 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 953 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 445 SO: 390 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 455 SO: 295 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 11/02/2025 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SO: 285 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 11/02/2025 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 435 SO: 305 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 65

48H: 12/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 45

60H: 12/02/2025 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 425 SO: 185 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 45

72H: 13/02/2025 06 UTC: 39.2 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 490 SO: 195 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SO: 165 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, VINCE LUTTE TOUJOURS CONTRE LE
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT (15KT ANALYSA PAR LE CIMSS A 00UTC) CE QUI
INDUIT UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE MUR DE L'OEIL COTE OUEST. LES ANALYSES
DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 3H DONNE UN DT DE 5.0. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0443Z A
PERMIS DE METTRE A JOUR LES EXTENSIONS DU SYSTEME. EN ACCORS AVEC DES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, VINCE EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS DE 85KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE POURSUIT SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD,
PILOTE PAR LA PROXIMITE AVEC UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE A L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME. VINCE DEVRAIT RESTER SUR LA BORDURE EST DE CE THALWEG ET
S'ELOIGNER RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. IL A PEU DE
DISPENRSION ENTRE LES MODELES PUIS ELLE AUGMENTE EN VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT PLUS LE SYSTEME S'APPROCHE DES LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER A L'OUEST DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN DEBUT DE
JOURNEE DE JEUDI. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN CONSENSUS DES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES EN SE RAPPROCHANT DE GFS DANS LES
COURTES ECHEANCES ET PROCHE DE IFS SUR LES MOYENNES ECHEANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. DANS LES PROCHAINES 12-24H,
MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT UN PEU EN HAUSSE, VINCE CONTINUE DE
RENCONTRER DE BONNES CONDITIONS (BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CA TE
POLAIRE, ET EAUX DE SURFACE ENCORE SUFFISAMMENT ENERGETIQUES). SON
INTENSITE DEVRAIT DONC SE STABILISER AUJOURD'HUI. PUIS A PARTIR DE CE
SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT PLUS FRANCHEMENT AUGMENTER ET PERMETTRE
DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DANS LE SYSTEME. VINDCE DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS NOTABLEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI. PUIS A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES COMBINEE A
L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. IL DEVRAIT
ALORS ETRE AU STADE DE DEPRESSION EXTRA-TROPICALE A SON PASSAGE AU
LARGE D'AMSTERDAM.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100609
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 953 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 68.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/10 AT 18 UTC:
25.3 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
27.2 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100022
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 68.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 425 SW: 405 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/10 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 415 SW: 325 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/11 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/11 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/12 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 405 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/12 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 360 SW: 230 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

72H: 2025/02/13 00 UTC: 36.1 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 405 SW: 175 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/14 00 UTC: 47.7 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 900 SE: 465 SW: 280 NW: 510
34 KT NE: 470 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 305

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=5.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED, NOT
ONLY AS A RESULT OF THE GRADUAL WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS, BUT ALSO AND
ABOVE ALL DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE
LATTER IS IN FACT SLIGHTLY INCREASING, FROM WEST-SOUTH-WEST FOR
20/25KT, WHICH EXPLAINS THE WEAKNESS OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
EYEWALL. CONVECTION TRIED TO RECONSOLIDATE THIS INTRUSION DURING THE
NIGHT, BUT WITHOUT SUCCESS. THE LATEST EYE ANALYSES FROM RSMC DE LA
REUNION SHOW A 3-HOUR MEAN DT OF 4.5- WITH A CI OF 5.5-. DUE TO THE
RAPID DEGRADATION OF THE STRUCTURE, THE AMERICAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES
(PGTW AND KNES) REMAIN FOR THE MOMENT ON A HIGHER DT OF THE ORDER OF
5.5; THE RECENT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSES DROP SLIGHTLY AND ARE
ALSO POSITIONED ON AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 85/90 KT (AVERAGE OVER 10
MINUTES). THE FINAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85KT, SUPPORTED BY ASCAT-C
DATA FROM 1646Z.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS NOW STARTING TO ACCELERATE AGAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH,
WHILE RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES. THE FORECAST TRACK
FOR REUNION'S RSMC IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, WHICH
IS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING A SLOWER BIAS THAN THE AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN
GUIDELINES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRANSIT CLOSE TO
THE WEST OF THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM AT THE PROBABLE EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION STAGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY
MORE SHEARED, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, DESPITE THE
MAINTENANCE OF GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12/18
HOURS (GOOD POLAR COAST ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, AND SURFACE WATERS STILL
SUFFICIENTLY ENERGETIC). VINCE SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE UNTIL TUESDAY. SHEAR SHOULD THEN INCREASE FROM MONDAY ONWARDS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BECOMING STRONG ON
TUESDAY. FROM THEN ON, DRY AIR COULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INVADE THE
NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, AND VINCE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN
MORE MARKEDLY, DROPPING TO STORM STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT,
WITH THE SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL ON FRESH WATERS COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION AND INCREASED SHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, THEN BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LAND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100022
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 68.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 952 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 425 SO: 405 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2025 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 415 SO: 325 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 11/02/2025 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SO: 295 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 11/02/2025 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SO: 295 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 12/02/2025 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 405 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 45

60H: 12/02/2025 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 360 SO: 230 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

72H: 13/02/2025 00 UTC: 36.1 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 405 SO: 175 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2025 00 UTC: 47.7 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 900 SE: 465 SO: 280 NO: 510
34 KT NE: 470 SE: 295 SO: 195 NO: 305

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST DEGRADEE, NON SEULEMENT EN RAISON DU RECHAUFFEMENT PROGRESSIF
DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX, MAIS AUSSI ET SURTOUT SOUS L'EFFET D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE PRESENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CELUI-CI
EST EN EFFET, EN LEGERE HAUSSE, DE SECTEUR OUEST-SUD-OUEST POUR
20/25KT, CE QUI EXPLIQUE LA FAIBLESSE CONSTATEE DU BORD OUEST DU MUR
DE L'OEIL. LA CONVECTION A TENTE DE RECONSOLIDER CETTE INTRUSION AU
COURS DE LA NUIT MAIS SANS SUCCES. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES EN OEIL DU
CMRS DE LA REUNION POINTE UN DT MOYENNE SUR 3 HEURES DE 4.5- AVEC UN
CI DE 5.5-. DU FAIT DE LA DEGRADATION RAPIDE DE LA STRUCTURE, LES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES AMERICAINES (PGTW ET KNES) RESTENT POUR LE
MOMENT SUR UN DT PLUS ELEVE DE L'ORDRE DE 5.5 ; LES ANALYSES
D'INTENSITES OBJECTIVES RECENTES DECROCHENT LEGEREMENT ET SE
POSITIONNENT EGALEMENT SUR UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DE 85/90 KT (MOYENNE
SUR 10 MINUTES). L'INTENSITE FINALE EST PORTEE A 85KT, CONFORTEE PAR
LA DONNEE DE L'ASCAT-C DE 1646Z.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE COMMENCE MAINTENANT A ACCELERER DE
NOUVEAU SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN THALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE A
PROXIMITE SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
S'ACCELERER GRADUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST CETTE SEMAINE EN
BORDURE EST DE CE THALWEG TOUT EN S'ELOIGNANT RAPIDEMENT VERS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS DE LA REUNION
EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES MODELISATIONS, QUI SUIT
ACTUELLEMENT UN BIAIS PLUS LENT QUE LES GUIDANCES AMERICAINES ET
EUROPEENNES. A NOTER QUE LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TRANSITER A PROXIMITE
OUEST DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM AU STADE PROBABLE DE DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT LEGEREMENT PLUS
CISAILLE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR LEGEREMENT, ET CE, MALGRE LE
MAINTIEN DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES AU COURS DES 12/18
PROCHAINES HEURES (BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CA TE POLAIRE, ET EAUX
DE SURFACE ENCORE SUFFISAMMENT ENERGETIQUES). VINCE DEVRAIT DONC
RESTER AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL JUSQU'A MARDI. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT ENSUITE AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN BORDURE EST DU THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE, DEVENANT FORT MARDI. A PARTIR DE LA, DE L'AIR SEC
POURRAIT COMMENCER A ENVAHIR PROGRESSIVEMENT LE NORD-OUEST DE LA
CIRCULATION ET VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT POUR
S'ABAISSER AU STADE DE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI. AU-DELA, AVEC
L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX FRAICHES COMBINEES A L'INTERACTION
BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RAPIDEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES, PUIS DEVENIR UNE
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100007
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 68.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 195 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
23.9 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/11 AT 00 UTC:
25.9 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.9S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.7S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.5S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.3S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 33.2S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 69.1E.
09FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z AND 102100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 69.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 943 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 405 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/10 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 445 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/10 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/11 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 425 SW: 295 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/11 18 UTC: 29.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 425 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/12 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 415 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2025/02/12 18 UTC: 34.2 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 400 SW: 175 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/13 18 UTC: 42.4 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 900 SE: 465 SW: 280 NW: 510
34 KT NE: 470 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 305

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5- CI=6.0-

VINCE STILL LOOKS GOOD, WITH A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A SLIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, OF THE ORDER OF 10/15KT FROM THE WEST, DOES NOT SEEM
(FOR THE MOMENT) TO BE TOO STRONG ON THE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY IN THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH CLOUD TOPS GRADUALLY WARMING UP.
THIS ANALYSIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE
AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS, POINTING TO A FT OF 5.5-, DOWN
SLIGHTLY SINCE THE 12Z NETWORK. THIS ESTIMATE IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST U.S. GUIDANCE, WHICH STATES AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 95 KT
(AVERAGE WIND OVER 10 MINUTES). THE 1446Z ASCAT-C AVAILABLE SHORTLY
AFTER THE ANALYSIS TIME REINFORCES THIS ESTIMATE WITH A DEBIASED
INTENSITY OF BETWEEN 90/95KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, AFTER SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS IT
BEGAN ITS TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, VINCE IS BEGINNING TO
ACCELERATE AGAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH, WHILE RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES. THE RSMC
TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, GENERALLY TAKING A
SLOWER BIAS THAN THE AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE SYSTEMS. NOTE
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRANSIT CLOSE TO THE WEST OF THE AMSTERDAM
ISLAND AT THE PROBABLE EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS STILL NOT VERY
SHEARED, THE SYSTEM COULD LEVEL OFF OR EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, THANKS
TO THE MAINTENANCE OF EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 12/18 HOURS. VINCE SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE UNTIL MONDAY. SHEAR IS THEN SET TO INCREASE FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BECOMING STRONG
ON TUESDAY. FROM THEN ON, DRY AIR COULD BEGIN TO INVADE THE
NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, AND VINCE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, BECOMING A CYCLONE FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. BEYOND
THAT, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM ON FRESH WATERS COMBINED WITH
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND INCREASED SHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY WEDNESDAY, THEN
BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND :
- RODRIGUES: RESIDUAL 4M WAVES IN THE EVENING, SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.4 S / 69.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 943 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 405 SO: 350 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2025 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 445 SO: 305 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 10/02/2025 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 11/02/2025 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 425 SO: 295 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 11/02/2025 18 UTC: 29.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 425 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 12/02/2025 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 415 SO: 260 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 12/02/2025 18 UTC: 34.2 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 400 SO: 175 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2025 18 UTC: 42.4 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 900 SE: 465 SO: 280 NO: 510
34 KT NE: 470 SE: 295 SO: 195 NO: 305

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

VINCE PRESENTE TOUJOURS UN BEL ASPECT VISUEL, AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE
BELLE DIVERGENCE AU SUD DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. UN LEGER
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE L'ORDRE DE 10/15KT DE
SECTEUR OUEST NE SEMBLE PAS (POUR LE MOMENT) TROP GENER LA STRUCTURE.
TOUTEFOIS AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
S'EST LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE DANS LE DEMI CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME, AVEC
DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT GRADUELLEMENT RECHAUFFES. CETTE
ANALYSE EST EGALEMENT CONFIRMEE PAR L'ESTIMATION SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
MOYENNEE SUR LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES, POINTANT UN FT DE 5.5-, EN
LEGERE BAISSE DEPUIS LE RESEAU DE 12Z. CETTE ESTIMATION EST SUPPORTEE
PAR LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES AMERICAINES STATUANT UNE INTENSITE PROCHE
DE 95 KT (VENT MOYENNE SUR 10 MINUTES). L'ASCAT-C DE 1446Z DISPONIBLE
PEU APRES LE RESEAU RENFORCE CETTE ESTIMATION AVEC UNE INTENSITE
DEBIAISEE COMPRISE ENTRE 90/95KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, APRES AVOIR RALENTI CES DERNIERES HEURES,
EN AMORCANT SON VIRAGE A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, VINCE COMMENCE A
ACCELERER A NOUVEAU SA COURSE SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN THALWEG A
PROXIMITE SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE
S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE EN
BORDURE EST DE CE THALWEG TOUT EN S'ELOIGNANT RAPIDEMENT VERS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES MODELISATIONS, EN EMPRUNTANT GENERALEMENT UN BIAIS PLUS
LENT QUE LES GUIDANCES AMERICAINES ET EUROPEENNES. A NOTER QUE LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT TRANSITER A PROXIMITE OUEST DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM AU
STADE PROBABLE DE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ENCORE PEU CISAILLE, LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT PLAFONNER VOIRE S'AFFAIBLIR LEGEREMENT, ET CE, GRACE
AU MAINTIEN D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES AU COURS DES
12/18 PROCHAINES HEURS. VINCE DEVRAIT DONC RESTER AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE JUSQU'A LUNDI. LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE
AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE,
DEVENANT FORT MARDI. A PARTIR DE LA, DE L'AIR SEC POURRAIT COMMENCER
A ENVAHIR LE NORD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION ET VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT POUR S'ABAISSER AU STADE DE CYCLONE A
PARTIR DE MARDI. AU-DELA, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX
FRAICHES COMBINEES A L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES D'ICI MERCREDI, PUIS DEVENIR UNE
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE JEUDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : VAGUES DE 4M RESIDUELLES EN SOIREE, AMELIORATION
SENSIBLE AU COURS DE CETTE NUIT.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 943 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 69.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
22.8 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/10 AT 18 UTC:
24.9 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091205
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 947 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 69.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
22.1 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
23.9 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 20.6S 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.2S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.8S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.9S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 31.9S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 69.7E.
09FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090607
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 70.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 260 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
21.3 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
22.7 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090118
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 70.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 405 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/10 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/10 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/11 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 415 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2025/02/11 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/12 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/13 00 UTC: 39.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 205

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES (GPM-GMI AT 1942Z,
GCOMW1-AMSR2 AT 2059Z, F18-SSMIS AT 2237Z) HAVE CONFIRMED A CLEAR
STRENGTHENING OF THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE
REMNANTS OF THE ORIGINAL WALL, FOLLOWING THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) PROCESS. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE CURRENTLY IN THE ERC'S
FINAL PHASE, DURING WHICH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AGAIN WITHIN
THE NEW, BROADER CONVECTIVE CORE. THE CYCLONE NOW HAS A SOLID ANNULAR
STRUCTURE, WHICH SEEMS LESS SUBJECT TO SHEAR THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT,
HINTING A POSSIBLE INCOMING INTENSIFICATION. IN THE ABSENCE OF SAR
DATA, CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WINDS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED BELOW 100 KT LAST NIGHT DURING THE
ERC PROCESS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A DT OF 5.5+, IN
AGREEMENT WITH MET AND PT, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AT 18UTC.
ADT/AIDT/DPRINT ESTIMATES ARE CLOSE TO 100 KT (10MIN WINDS). VINCE
INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 100 KT AT 00UTC, COMPROMISING BETWEEN THESE
ESTIMATES AND INERTIA DUE TO POST-ERC WEAKENING.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE SHOULD KEEP MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THIS
SUNDAY MORNING, STEERED ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY, THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE,
FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM,
SHOULD SLOW THE MOVEMENT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS TURN
SHOULD TAKE PLACE MORE THAN 500-600 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES.
THE MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
THE RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. NOTE THAT
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING, IT COULD PASS CLOSE
TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM WHILE UNDERGOING ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NEW EYEWALL'S STRENGTHENING AND A POSSIBLE
TEMPORARY SLIGHT DROP IN WIND SHEAR THIS SUNDAY SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE
SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. VINCE IS THUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE UNTIL MONDAY. WIND SHEAR IS SET TO INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH, BECOMING STRONG ON TUESDAY. FROM THEN ON, DRY AIR COULD BEGIN
TO INVADE THE NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION AND VINCE SHOULD
THEN WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY, WEAKENING TO CYCLONE STAGE FROM MONDAY
NIGHT. BEYOND THIS, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM ON COOLER WATERS
COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND INCREASING SHEAR, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES : WAVES NEAR 4M THIS SUNDAY UNTIL TONIGHT.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090118
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 70.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/02/2025 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 405 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 10/02/2025 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 10/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 11/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 415 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 11/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 0

72H: 12/02/2025 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2025 00 UTC: 39.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 205

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SUCCESSIVES
(GPM-GMI A 1942Z, GCOMW1-AMSR2 A 2059Z, F18-SSMIS A 2237Z) ONT
CONFIRME UN NET RENFORCEMENT DU NOUVEAU MUR DE L'OEIL EXTERNE ET LA
DISPARITION DES RESTES DU MUR INITIAL, SUITE AU PROCESSUS DE CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC). LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE DONC
ACTUELLEMENT DANS LA PHASE FINALE DE L'ERC, AU COURS DE LAQUELLE LES
VENTS VONT RECOMMENCER A S'INTENSIFIER AU SEIN DU NOUVEAU COEUR
CONVECTIF, QUI EST DESORMAIS PLUS LARGE. LE CYCLONE A MAINTENANT UNE
STRUCTURE ANNULAIRE SOLIDE ET QUI SEMBLE MOINS SOUMISE AU
CISAILLEMENT QU'HIER SOIR, CE QUI LAISSE PRESAGER UNE PROBABLE FUTURE
INTENSIFICATION. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES SAR, L'ESTIMATION DE
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE RESTE INCERTAINE. IL EST POSSIBLE QUE LES VENTS
SE SOIENT AFFAIBLIS SOUS LES 100 KT TEMPORAIREMENT HIER SOIR AU COURS
DE L'ERC. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN DT A 5.5+, EN ACCORD
AVEC LE MET ET LE PT, EN TRES LEGERE HAUSSE PAR RAPPORT A 18UTC. LES
ESTIMATIONS ADT/AIDT/DPRINT SONT VOISINES DE 100 KT (VENTS 10MIN).
L'INTENSITE DE VINCE EST LAISSEE A 100 KT A 00UTC, FAISANT UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE CES ESTIMATIONS ET L'INERTIE LIEE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
POST-ERC.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A SE DEPLACER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST CE DIMANCHE MATIN, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. ENTRE CET APRES-MIDI ET LUNDI, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE PUIS L'APPROCHE D'UN THALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT GENERAL ET
INDUIRE PROGRESSIVEMENT UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. CE VIRAGE DEVRAIT
S'EFFECTUER A PLUS DE 500-600 KM A L'EST-SUD-EST DE L'ILE RODRIGUES.
LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE EN BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES MODELISATIONS. A NOTER QU'ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI
MATIN, IL POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OUEST DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN
COURS DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU NOUVEAU MUR DE L'OEIL ET
UNE POSSIBLE PETITE BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU CISAILLEMENT CE DIMANCHE,
SUGGERENT LA POSSIBLITE D'UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION D'ICI CE
DIMANCHE SOIR, D'AUTANT QUE LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET D'UN BON CONTENU EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE. VINCE
DEVRAIT DONC RESTER AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JUSQU'A
LUNDI. LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN
BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, DEVENANT FORT MARDI. A PARTIR DE
LA, DE L'AIR SEC POURRAIT COMMENCER A ENVAHIR LE NORD-OUEST DE LA
CIRCULATION ET VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT POUR
S'ABAISSER AU STADE DE CYCLONE A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
AU-DELA, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX FRAICHES COMBINEES A
L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES D'ICI
MERCREDI, PUIS DEVENIR UNE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE JEUDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : VAGUES DE 4M CE DIMANCHE EN COURS DE JOURNEE ET SOIREE.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090035
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 70.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 405 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/10 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/10 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/11 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 415 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2025/02/11 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/12 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/13 00 UTC: 39.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 205

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES (GPM-GMI AT 1942Z,
GCOMW1-AMSR2 AT 2059Z, F18-SSMIS AT 2237Z) HAVE CONFIRMED A CLEAR
STRENGTHENING OF THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE
REMNANTS OF THE ORIGINAL WALL, FOLLOWING THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) PROCESS. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE CURRENTLY IN THE ERC'S
FINAL PHASE, DURING WHICH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AGAIN WITHIN
THE NEW, BROADER CONVECTIVE CORE. THE CYCLONE NOW HAS A SOLID ANNULAR
STRUCTURE, WHICH SEEMS LESS SUBJECT TO SHEAR THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT,
HINTING A POSSIBLE INCOMING INTENSIFICATION. IN THE ABSENCE OF SAR
DATA, INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS
TEMPORARILY WEAKENED BELOW 100 KT LAST NIGHT DURING THE ERC PROCESS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A DT OF 5.5+, IN AGREEMENT WITH MET
AND PT. ADT/AIDT/DPRINT ESTIMATES ARE CLOSE TO 100 KT (10MIN WINDS).
VINCE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 100 KT AT 00UTC, COMPROMISING BETWEEN
THESE ESTIMATES AND INERTIA DUE TO POST-ERC WEAKENING.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE SHOULD KEEP MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THIS
SUNDAY MORNING, STEERED ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY, THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE,
FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM,
SHOULD SLOW THE MOVEMENT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS TURN
SHOULD TAKE PLACE MORE THAN 500-600 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES.
THE MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
THE RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. NOTE THAT
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING, IT COULD PASS CLOSE
TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM WHILE UNDERGOING ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NEW EYEWALL'S STRENGTHENING AND A POSSIBLE
TEMPORARY SLIGHT DROP IN WIND SHEAR THIS SUNDAY SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE
SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. VINCE IS THUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE UNTIL MONDAY. WIND SHEAR IS SET TO INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH, BECOMING STRONG ON TUESDAY. FROM THEN ON, DRY AIR COULD BEGIN
TO INVADE THE NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION AND VINCE SHOULD
THEN WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY, WEAKENING TO CYCLONE STAGE FROM MONDAY
NIGHT. BEYOND THIS, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM ON COOLER WATERS
COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND INCREASING SHEAR, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES : WAVES NEAR 4M THIS SUNDAY UNTIL TONIGHT.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090035
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 70.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/02/2025 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 405 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 10/02/2025 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 10/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 11/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 415 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 11/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 0

72H: 12/02/2025 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2025 00 UTC: 39.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 205

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SUCCESSIVES
(GPM-GMI A 1942Z, GCOMW1-AMSR2 A 2059Z, F18-SSMIS A 2237Z) ONT
CONFIRME UN NET RENFORCEMENT DU NOUVEAU MUR DE L'OEIL EXTERNE ET LA
DISPARITION DES RESTES DU MUR INITIAL, SUITE AU PROCESSUS DE CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC). LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE DONC
ACTUELLEMENT DANS LA PHASE FINALE DE L'ERC, AU COURS DE LAQUELLE LES
VENTS VONT RECOMMENCER A S'INTENSIFIER AU SEIN DU NOUVEAU COEUR
CONVECTIF, QUI EST DESORMAIS PLUS LARGE. LE CYCLONE A MAINTENANT
STRUCTURE ANNULAIRE SOLIDE ET QUI SEMBLE MOINS SOUMISE AU
CISAILLEMENT QU'HIER SOIR, CE QUI LAISSE PRESAGER UNE PROBABLE FUTURE
INTENSIFICATION. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES SAR, L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE RESTE INCERTAINE. IL EST POSSIBLE QUE LES VENTS SE SOIENT
AFFAIBLIS SOUS LES 100 KT TEMPORAIREMENT HIER SOIR AU COURS DE L'ERC.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN DT A 5.5+, EN ACCORD AVEC LE MET
ET LE PT. LES ESTIMATIONS ADT/AIDT/DPRINT SONT VOISINES DE 100 KT
(VENTS 10MIN). L'INTENSITE DE VINCE EST LAISSEE A 100 KT A 00UTC,
FAISANT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE CES ESTIMATIONS ET L'INERTIE LIEE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT POST-ERC.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A SE DEPLACER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST CE DIMANCHE MATIN, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. ENTRE CET APRES-MIDI ET LUNDI, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE PUIS L'APPROCHE D'UN THALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT GENERAL ET
INDUIRE PROGRESSIVEMENT UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. CE VIRAGE DEVRAIT
S'EFFECTUER A PLUS DE 500-600 KM A L'EST-SUD-EST DE L'ILE RODRIGUES.
LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE EN BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES MODELISATIONS. A NOTER QU'ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI
MATIN, IL POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OUEST DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN
COURS DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU NOUVEAU MUR DE L'OEIL ET
UNE POSSIBLE PETITE BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU CISAILLEMENT CE DIMANCHE,
SUGGERENT LA POSSIBLITE D'UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION D'ICI CE
DIMANCHE SOIR, D'AUTANT QUE LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET D'UN BON CONTENU EN CHALEUR OCEANIQUE. VINCE
DEVRAIT DONC RESTER AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JUSQU'A
LUNDI. LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN
BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, DEVENANT FORT MARDI. A PARTIR DE
LA, DE L'AIR SEC POURRAIT COMMENCER A ENVAHIR LE NORD-OUEST DE LA
CIRCULATION ET VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT POUR
S'ABAISSER AU STADE DE CYCLONE A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
AU-DELA, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX FRAICHES COMBINEES A
L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES D'ICI
MERCREDI, PUIS DEVENIR UNE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE JEUDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : VAGUES DE 4M CE DIMANCHE EN COURS DE JOURNEE ET SOIREE.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090018
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 70.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 280 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
21.0 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
22.1 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 71.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.9S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.8S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.3S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.3S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 29.7S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 35.8S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 71.2E.
08FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS
946 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 71.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/09 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 405 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/09 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 435 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/10 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 445 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/10 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 445 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/11 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 400 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2025/02/11 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SW: 270 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/12 18 UTC: 37.7 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, VINCE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW
SIGNS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WITH INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE COEXISTENCE OF THE REMNANTS OF AN INNER EYEWALL
AND A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OUTER PERIPHERAL CONVECTIVE RING,
ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHTLY BROADENING EYE. THE OUTER WALL, WHICH
SHOWED SOME WEAKNESSES EARLY IN THE EVENING (AS SHOWN ON SSMIS-F17
AROUND 1330Z), APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING ON THE LATEST IR IMAGES,
WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. A 1612Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A SLIGHT WIDENING
OF THE 48KT WIND EXTENSIONS, CONSISTENT WITH THE ERC PROCESS. THE
WEAKNESSES ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE EYEWALL OBSERVED IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON MICROWAVE IMAGES COULD ALSO BE LINKED TO SOME SLIGHTLY
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTH-WEST WIND SHEAR, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BOTH DT AND MET GIVES A FINAL
T-NUMBER OF 5.5, WITH CI DOWN TO 6.0. THE FINAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FOR THE SYSTEM IS MADE COMPLICATED BY THE ERC PROCESS, BUT WE CAN
ASSUME THAT THE WEAKENING OF THE INNER EYEWALL OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD TREND THAT BEGAN AT 12UTC. THE INTENSITY
IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 100 KT, WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS AND ADT/AIDT/SATCON ESTIMATES. HOWEVER, IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE PRECISE DATA (SAR), THIS ESTIMATE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING, DRIVEN ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY, THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE,
FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM,
SHOULD SLOW THE MOVEMENT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS TURN
SHOULD TAKE PLACE MORE THAN 500-600 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES.
THE MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
THE RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, WITH A
SOUTHWARD EVACUATION FASTER THAN IFS BUT SLOWER THAN GFS. NOTE THAT
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING, IT COULD PASS CLOSE
TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM WHILE UNDERGOING ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ONGOING ERC PROCESS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WIND SHEAR BOTH MAKE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST COMPLEX, DEPENDING
IN PARTICULAR ON THE MORE OR LESS EFFICIENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE
OUTER EYEWALL. VINCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE UNTIL MONDAY, STILL BENEFITING FROM A FAIRLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR IS SET TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BECOMING
STRONG ON TUESDAY. FROM THEN ON, DRY AIR COULD BEGIN TO INVADE THE
NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION AND VINCE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN
MORE MARKEDLY, WEAKENING TO CYCLONE STAGE FROM MONDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THIS, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM ON COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND INCREASED SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
TROUGH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES: WAVES NEAR 4M ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081834
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 71.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 405 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 09/02/2025 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 435 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 10/02/2025 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 445 SO: 315 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 10/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 445 SO: 305 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 11/02/2025 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 400 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 11/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SO: 270 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2025 18 UTC: 37.7 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 390 SO: 260 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE VINCE A
CONTINUE A MONTRER DES SIGNES D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL (ERC), L'IMAGERIE SATTELITAIRE INFRAROUGE MONTRANT LA
COEXISTENCE DES RESTES D'UN MUR DE L'OEIL INTERNE ET D'UN ANNEAU
PERIPHERIQUE EXTERNE QUI S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT RENFORCE,
S'ACCOMPAGNANT D'UN ELARGISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DE L'OEIL. LE MUR
EXTERNE, QUI PRESENTAIT DES FRAGILITES EN DEBUT DE SOIREE (COMME LE
MONTRE LA SSMIS-F17 VERS 1330Z), SEMBLE SE RENFORCER SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES IR, AVEC UN REFROIDISSEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX. UNE
PASSE ASCAT-B A 1612Z MONTRE UN LEGER ELARGISSEMENT DES EXTENSIONS DE
VENTS 48KT, CE QUI EST COHERENT AVEC LE PROCESSUS D'ERC. LES PETITES
FAIBLESSES DU COTE NORD ET OUEST DU MUR DE L'OEIL OBSERVEES SUR LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE FIN D'APRES-MIDI POURRAIENT AUSSI ETRE LIEES A
UNE PETITE HAUSSE AU MOINS TEMPORAIRE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST A
SUD-OUEST. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE BASEE A LA FOIS SUR LE DT ET
SUR LE MET DONNE UN NOMBRE T FINAL DE 5.5, AVEC UN CI EN BAISSE A
6.0. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE FINALE DU SYSTEME EST RENDUE COMPLEXE
PAR LE PROCESSUS D'ERC, MAIS ON PEUT SUPPOSER QUE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU MUR INTERNE CES DERNIERES HEURES POURSUIT LA TENDANCE A LA BAISSE
AMORCEE A 12UTC. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ABAISSEE A 100 KT, CE QUI RESTE
COHERENT AVEC L'ANALYSE DVORAK ET LES ESTIMATIONS ADT/AIDT/SATCON.
NEANMOINS, EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES PLUS PRECISES (SAR), CETTE
ESTIMATION RESTE INCERTAINE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU DE SE DEPLACER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DIMANCHE MATIN, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. ENTRE DIMANCHE APRES-MIDI ET LUNDI, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
ET LE DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE PUIS L'APPROCHE D'UN THALWEG
AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT GENERAL ET
INDUIRE PROGRESSIVEMENT UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. CE VIRAGE DEVRAIT
S'EFFECTUER A PLUS DE 500-600 KM A L'EST-SUD-EST DE L'ILE RODRIGUES.
LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE EN BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES MODELISATIONS, AVEC UNE EVACUATION VERS LE SUD PLUS
RAPIDE QU'IFS MAIS PLUS LENTE QUE GFS. A NOTER QU'ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR
ET JEUDI MATIN, IL POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OUEST DE L'ILE
D'AMSTERDAM EN COURS DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE PROCESSUS D'ERC ET LA LEGERE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT EN COURS REND LA PREVISION COMPLEXE A COURT TERME, QUI
DEPENDRA NOTAMMENT DE LA RECONSOLIDATION DU MUR EXTERNE. VINCE
DEVRAIT RESTER AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JUSQU'A LUNDI,
BENEFICIANT ENCORE D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT ASSEZ FAVORABLE. LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN
BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, DEVENANT FORT MARDI. A PARTIR DE
LA, DE L'AIR SEC POURRAIT COMMENCER A ENVAHIR LE NORD-OUEST DE LA
CIRCULATION ET VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT POUR
S'ABAISSER AU STADE DE CYCLONE A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
AU-DELA, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX FRAICHES COMBINEES A
L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT EN MARGE DU
THALWEG, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES D'ICI MERCREDI, PUIS DEVENIR UNE
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE JEUDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : VAGUES DE 4M EN JOURNEE ET SOIREE DE DIMANCHE.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 08/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 71.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 240 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
21.5 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081227
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 72.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 936 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SW: 350 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/09 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 405 SW: 345 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 405 SW: 345 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/10 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/10 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 425 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/11 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2025/02/11 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/12 12 UTC: 36.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 380 SW: 175 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 45

120H: 2025/02/13 12 UTC: 43.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 780 SE: 350 SW: 0 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 400 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 280

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0 CI=6.5

THE 0828Z GCOM-AMSR2 SWATH SUGGESTS THE START OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WITH PERIPHERAL BANDS SHOWING HIGH
BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES,
SURROUNDING THE INITIAL EYEWALL. THE CIMSS ERC ONSET PROBABILITIES
DON'T YET SHOW A FLAG, DUE TO THE SLOW REFRESH RATE OF THIS TYPE OF
DATA. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ANIMATION OF MIMIC-TC MICROWAVE IMAGES
CLEARLY SUGGESTS THE REINFORCEMENT OF AN OUTER WALL THAT FORMS AN
ALMOST COMPLETE RING AROUND THE INNER WALL. GIVEN THIS PATTERN, WE
CAN REASONABLY ASSUME THAT INTERNAL PROCESSES ARE GRADUALLY COMING
INTO PLAY, AND IN FACT LIMIT - AT THE MARGIN FOR THE TIME BEING - THE
INTENSIFICATION PROVIDED BY THE USUAL SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE. THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE DT ( STEADY SINCE THIS MORNING) SUGGESTS
A FT OF 6.0; ALSO, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED VERY SLIGHTLY TO
105KT TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN INTERNAL STRUCTURE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND, DRIVEN ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD SLOW
THE MOVEMENT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE
MORE THAN 500 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE RSMC TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, WITH A SOUTHWARD EVACUATION FASTER
THAN IFS BUT SLOWER THAN GFS. NOTE THAT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY, IT COULD PASS CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM WHILE
UNDERGOING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE SHOULD WEAKEN MORE OR LESS SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT 24/30 HOURS, DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE
PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES AN AVERAGE WEAKENING RATE OF 20KT
OVER A 36-HOUR WINDOW, WHICH IS NOT CERTAIN AND REMAINS RATHER
THEORETICAL AND SUBJECTIVE. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSITY IN THE LIGHT OF MICROWAVE DATA ANALYSIS IN PARTICULAR. IN
ANY CASE, VINCE SHOULD REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT LEAST
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE SOUTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE COULD BEGIN TO SET IN, THEN
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. AT THIS POINT, DRY AIR COULD BEGIN TO INVADE THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE CIRCULATION, AND VINCE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN
MORE MARKEDLY, REACHING THE UPPER CYCLONE STAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THAT, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM ON FRESH WATERS DEVOID OF
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL, COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND
INCREASED SHEAR AT THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL ATTRIBUTES, THEN BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES: WAVES NEAR 4M ON SUNDAY=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081227
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 72.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 936 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SO: 350 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 405 SO: 345 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 09/02/2025 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 405 SO: 345 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 10/02/2025 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 10/02/2025 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 425 SO: 295 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 11/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 11/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SO: 280 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2025 12 UTC: 36.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 380 SO: 175 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 45

120H: 13/02/2025 12 UTC: 43.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 780 SE: 350 SO: 0 NO: 465
34 KT NE: 400 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 280

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0 CI=6.5

LA PASSE GCOM-AMSR2 DE 0828Z SUGGERE UN DEBUT DE CYCLE DE REMLACEMENT
DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC), AVEC DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES MONTRANT DE
FORTES TEMPERATURES DE BRILLANCE DANS LES DEMI-CERCLES EST ET OUEST,
ENTOURANT LE MUR DE L'OEIL INITIAL. LES PROBABILITES D'ONSET D'ERC DU
CIMSS NE METTENT PAS ENCORE DE FLAG POUR LE MOMENT DU FAIT DU
RAFRAICHISSEMENT ASSEZ LENT DE CE TYPE DE DONNEES. EN REVANCHE
L'ANIMATION DES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES MIMIC-TC SUGGERENT NETTEMENT LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UN MUR EXTERNE QUI CONSTITUE UN ANNEAU QUASI COMPLET
AUTOUR DU MUR INTERNE. EN CONSEQUENCE, AU VU DE CETTE CONFIGURATION,
ON PEUT RAISONNABLEMENT PENSER QUE DES PROCESSUS INTERNES SE METTENT
GRADUELLEMENT EN PLACE, ET DE FAIT LIMITENT, A LA MARGE POUR LE
MOMENT, L'INTENSIFICATION FOURNIE PAR LES GUIDANCES SUBJECTIVES ET
OBJECTIVES HABITUELLES. LE DT MOYENNE SUR 3 HEURES (STABLE DEPUIS CE
MATIN) PROPOSE UN FT DE 6.0 ; AUSSI, L'INTENSITE EST LEGEREMENT
ABAISSE TRES LEGEREMENT A 105KT POUR REFLETER CE CHANGEMENT DE
STRUCTURE INTERNE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU DE SE DEPLACER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DIMANCHE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE PUIS L'APPROCHE D'UN THALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT GENERAL ET
INDUIRE PROGRESSIVEMENT UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. CE VIRAGE DEVRAIT
S'EFFECTUER A PLUS DE 600 KM A L'EST-SUD-EST DE L'ILE RODRIGUES. LE
MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE EN BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES
MODELISATIONS, AVEC UNE EVACUATION VERS LE SUD PLUS RAPIDE QU'IFS
MAIS PLUS LENTE QUE GFS. A NOTER QU'ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, IL
POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OUEST DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN COURS DE
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS OU MOINS
LENTEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24/30 HEURES, SOUS L'EFFET DU
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE
TABLE SUR UN TAUX D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT MOYEN DE 20KT SUR UNE FENETRE DE
36 HEURES, CE QUI N'EST PAS CERTAIN ET RESTE ASSEZ THEORIQUE ET
SUBJECTIF. LES PROCHAINES PREVISIONS AFFINERONT L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME AU VU DES ANALYSES DES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES NOTAMMENT. QUOI
QU'IL EN SOIT, VINCE DEVRAIT RESTER AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE AU MOINS JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR
SUD-OUEST POURRAIT COMMENCER A S'INSTALLER, PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT
LUNDI EN BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. A CETTE OCCASION, DE
L'AIR SEC POURRAIT COMMENCER A ENVAHIR LES DEMI-CERCLES NORD ET OUEST
DE LA CIRCULATION ET VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT
POUR ATTEINDRE LE STADE SUPERIEUR DE CYCLONE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A
MARDI. AU-DELA, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX FRAICHES
DEPOURVUES DE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, COMBINEE A L'INTERACTION
BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSE DU CISAILLEMENT EN MARGE DU THALWEG, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEFINITIVEMENT PERDRE SES ATTRIBUTS TROPICAUX, PUIS
DEVENIR UNE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE DES JEUDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : VAGUES DE 4M EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 73.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 73.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.6S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080652 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 73.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SW: 350 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SW: 325 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/09 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 425 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/09 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/10 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 445 SW: 315 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/10 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/11 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 415 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/12 06 UTC: 35.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 435 SW: 260 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

120H: 2025/02/13 06 UTC: 41.8 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 685 SE: 425 SW: 195 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 215

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0- CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY
DETERIORATED, WITH THE CLOUDY TOPS OF THE INNER CONVECTIVE WALL
TENDING TO WARM UP. THE RSMC'S SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS TAKEN
THIS RECENT EVOLUTION INTO ACCOUNT AND POINTS TO AN AVERAGE 3H DT OF
6.0-. DUE TO INERTIA, CI IS STILL QUITE HIGH AT AROUND 6.5 OR 110KT
(10 MINUTES), WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE AMERICAN
ESTIMATES, AND CLOSER TO THE OBJECTIVE REFERENCE DATA (RCM-1 OF
0038Z) AND SATCON (ADJUSTED BY ADT/AIDT/DMINT). IN ADDITION, THE
COMPLETE ASCAT-B PASS AT 0343Z HAS CONSOLIDATED THE ANALYSIS OF WIND
EXTENSIONS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND, DRIVEN ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD SLOW
THE MOVEMENT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE
MORE THAN 500 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE RSMC TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, WITH A SOUTHWARD EVACUATION FASTER
THAN IFS BUT SLOWER THAN GFS. NOTE THAT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY, IT COULD PASS CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM WHILE
UNDERGOING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS STILL BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. IT COULD MAINTAIN ITS CTI INTENSITY SATGE
FOR SOME TIME AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS,
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO SET IN,
THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ON THIS OCCASION, DRY AIR COULD BEGIN TO INVADE THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE CIRCULATION, AND VINCE SHOULD THEN
START TO WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM OVER COOL WATERS WITH
NO ENERGY POTENTIAL, COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND
INCREASED SHEAR AT THE MARGIN OF THE TROUGH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL ATTRIBUTES.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES: WAVES NEAR 4M ON SUNDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080652 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 73.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 932 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SO: 350 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SO: 325 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 09/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 425 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 09/02/2025 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SO: 345 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 10/02/2025 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 445 SO: 315 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 10/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 11/02/2025 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 415 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2025 06 UTC: 35.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 435 SO: 260 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

120H: 13/02/2025 06 UTC: 41.8 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 685 SE: 425 SO: 195 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 250 SO: 165 NO: 215

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0- CI=6.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST LEGEREMENT DETERIOREE, AVEC LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DU MUR
CONVECTIF INTERNE QUI ONT EU TENDANCE A SE RECHAUFFER. L'ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DU CMRS A PRIS EN COMPTE CETTE RECENTE EVOLUTION ET
POINTE UN DT MOYENNE SUR 3H DE 6.0-. PAR INERTIE LE CI RESTE MALGRE
TOUT ASSEZ ELEVE DE L'ORDRE DE 6.5 SOIT 110KT (10 MINUTES), CE QUI
EST LEGEREMENT EN-DESSOUS DES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES AMERICAINES, ET
PLUS PROCHE DES DONNEES OBJECTIVES DE REFERENCE (RCM-1 DE 0038Z) ET
SATCON (AJUSTE PAR L'ADT/AIDT/DMINT). PAR AILLEURS, LA PASSE COMPLETE
ASCAT-B DE 0343Z A PERMIS DE CONSOLIDER L'ANALYSE DES EXTENSIONS DE
VENT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU DE SE DEPLACER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DIMANCHE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE PUIS L'APPROCHE D'UN THALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT GENERAL ET
INDUIRE PROGRESSIVEMENT UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. CE VIRAGE DEVRAIT
S'EFFECTUER A PLUS DE 600 KM A L'EST-SUD-EST DE L'ILE RODRIGUES. LE
MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE EN BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER RAPIDEMENT VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES
MODELISATIONS, AVEC UNE EVACUATION VERS LE SUD PLUS RAPIDE QU'IFS
MAIS PLUS LENTE QUE GFS. A NOTER QU'ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, IL
POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OUEST DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN COURS DE
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE TOUJOURS D'EXCELLENTES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES. IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR SON INTENSITE DE
CTI ENCORE UN MOMENT AU MOINS JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST POURRAIT COMMENCER A S'INSTALLER, PUIS PLUS
FRANCHEMENT LUNDI EN BORDURE EST DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. A CETTE
OCCASION, DE L'AIR SEC POURRAIT COMMENCER A ENVAHIR LES DEMI-CERCLES
NORD ET OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION ET VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A
S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI. ENTRE MARDI ET
MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX FRAICHES AVEC UN
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE INEXISTANT, COMBINEE A L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE
ET A LA HAUSE DU CISAILLEMENT EN MARGE DU THALWEG, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
DEFINITIVEMENT PERDRE SES ATTRIBUTS TROPICAUX.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : VAGUES DE 4M EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080611
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 73.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SW: 350 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SW: 325 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/09 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 425 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/09 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/10 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 445 SW: 315 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/10 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/11 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 415 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/12 06 UTC: 35.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 435 SW: 260 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

120H: 2025/02/13 06 UTC: 41.8 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 685 SE: 425 SW: 195 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 215

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0- CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED
UNCHANGED. HOWEVER, THE SSMIS F18 MICROWAVE AT 2256Z SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTIVE RING HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY. MOREOVER, THE COLD CLOUD
TOPS ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE HAVE WARMED UP COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS
NETWORKS. REGARDING DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY VALUE OF 7.0 HAS ONLY BEEN MAINTAINED FOR 9 HOURS, SINCE
THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. THE NEW FINAL T IS
THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 6.5, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM WIND
INTENSITY OF 110KT, IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. THIS VALUE
IS THEREFORE RETAINED. THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLY DUE TO
AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND, DRIVEN ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD SLOW
THE MOVEMENT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE
MORE THAN 500 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE RSMC TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, WITH A SOUTHWARD EVACUATION FASTER
THAN IFS BUT SLOWER THAN GFS. NOTE THAT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY, IT COULD PASS CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM WHILE
UNDERGOING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, VERY GOOD
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE). IT COULD MAINTAIN ITS CTI INTENSITY FOR A WHILE
YET, BUT AN EPHEMERAL RETURN TO THE CTTI STAGE CANNOT BE EXCLUDED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM SUNDAY EVENING, WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
SLIGHTLY, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AT THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. VINCE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
COOLER WATERS, COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND INCREASING
WIND SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES: WAVES NEAR 4 TO 5 METERS FROM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080611
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 73.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 932 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SO: 350 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SO: 325 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 09/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 425 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 09/02/2025 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SO: 345 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 10/02/2025 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 445 SO: 315 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 10/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 11/02/2025 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 415 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2025 06 UTC: 35.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 435 SO: 260 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

120H: 13/02/2025 06 UTC: 41.8 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 685 SE: 425 SO: 195 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 250 SO: 165 NO: 215

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0- CI=6.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST MAINTENUE. CEPENDANT LA MICRO-ONDE SSMIS F18 DE 2256Z MONTRE
QUE L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF S'EST UN PEU DEGRADE. DE PLUS LES SOMMETS
FROIDS SUR L'IMAGE SATELLITE IR SE SONT RECHAUFFES PAR RAPPORT AU
RESEAUX PRECEDENTS. CONCERNANT L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK, LA
PRECEDENTE VALEUR D'INTENSITE A 7.0 N'A ETE MAINTENUE QUE 9H PUISQUE
LA TAILLE DU SYSTEME EST PROCHE DE LA CLIMATOLOGIE. LE NOUVEAU T
FINAL EST DONC ESTIME A 6.5 CORRESPONDANT A UNE INTENSITE DE VENT MAX
A 110KT, CE QUI EST EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES. C'EST
DONC CETTE VALEUR QUI EST RETENUE. CETTE BAISSE D'INTENSITE EST
POSSIBLEMENT DUE A UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A CE WEEK-END, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE PUIS L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT ET INDUIRE UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. CE VIRAGE DEVRAIT S'EFFECTUER A PLUS DE 500 KM A
L'EST-SUD-EST DE RODRIGUES. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCELERER
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LE FLANC
ORIENTAL DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER VERS
LES MOYENNES LATITUDES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES MODELISATIONS, AVEC UNE EVACUATION
VERS LE SUD PLUS RAPIDE QU'IFS MAIS PLUS LENTE QUE GFS. A NOTER
QU'ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, IL POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OUEST
DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN COURS DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE, TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR SON INTENSITE DE
CTI ENCORE UN MOMENT MAIS UN RETOUR EPHEMERE AU STADE DE CTTI N'EST
PAS EXCLU DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT UN PEU AUGMENTER, PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT LUNDI EN
BORDURE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A
S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI. ENTRE MARDI ET
MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES,
COMBINEE A L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSE DU CISAILLEMENT EN
MARGE DU TALWEG, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : VAGUES DE 4 A 5 METRES ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080608
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 08/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 932 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 73.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 225 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/08 AT 18 UTC:
20.5 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
20.8 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 74.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/W 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SW: 400 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/08 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SW: 345 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/09 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 405 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/10 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 360 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/10 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/11 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 445 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/12 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 435 SW: 280 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 55

120H: 2025/02/13 00 UTC: 40.0 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 425 SW: 205 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 195

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.5- CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED
UNCHANGED. HOWEVER, THE SSMIS F18 MICROWAVE AT 2256Z SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTIVE RING HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY. MOREOVER, THE COLD CLOUD
TOPS ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE HAVE WARMED UP COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS
NETWORKS. REGARDING DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY VALUE OF 7.0 HAS ONLY BEEN MAINTAINED FOR 9 HOURS, SINCE
THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. THE NEW FINAL T IS
THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 6.5, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM WIND
INTENSITY OF 110KT, IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. THIS VALUE
IS THEREFORE RETAINED. THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLY DUE TO
AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND, DRIVEN ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD SLOW
THE MOVEMENT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE
MORE THAN 500 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE RSMC TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, WITH A SOUTHWARD EVACUATION FASTER
THAN IFS BUT SLOWER THAN GFS. NOTE THAT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY, IT COULD PASS CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM WHILE
UNDERGOING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, VERY GOOD
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE). IT COULD MAINTAIN ITS CTI INTENSITY FOR A WHILE
YET, BUT AN EPHEMERAL RETURN TO THE CTTI STAGE CANNOT BE EXCLUDED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM SUNDAY EVENING, WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
SLIGHTLY, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AT THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. VINCE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
COOLER WATERS, COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND INCREASING
WIND SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES: WAVES NEAR 4 TO 5 METERS FROM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080043
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 74.6 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/W 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SO: 400 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SO: 345 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 09/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 405 SO: 360 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 09/02/2025 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 10/02/2025 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SO: 360 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 10/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 11/02/2025 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 445 SO: 305 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2025 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 435 SO: 280 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 55

120H: 13/02/2025 00 UTC: 40.0 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 425 SO: 205 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 195

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.5- CI=6.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST MAINTENUE. CEPENDANT LA MICRO-ONDE SSMIS F18 DE 2256Z MONTRE
QUE L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF S'EST UN PEU DEGRADE. DE PLUS LES SOMMETS
FROIDS SUR L'IMAGE SATELLITE IR SE SONT RECHAUFFES PAR RAPPORT AU
RESEAUX PRECEDENTS. CONCERNANT L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK, LA
PRECEDENTE VALEUR D'INTENSITE A 7.0 N'A ETE MAINTENUE QUE 9H PUISQUE
LA TAILLE DU SYSTEME EST PROCHE DE LA CLIMATOLOGIE. LE NOUVEAU T
FINAL EST DONC ESTIME A 6.5 CORRESPONDANT A UNE INTENSITE DE VENT MAX
A 110KT, CE QUI EST EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES. C'EST
DONC CETTE VALEUR QUI EST RETENUE. CETTE BAISSE D'INTENSITE EST
POSSIBLEMENT DUE A UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A CE WEEK-END, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE PUIS L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT ET INDUIRE UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. CE VIRAGE DEVRAIT S'EFFECTUER A PLUS DE 500 KM A
L'EST-SUD-EST DE RODRIGUES. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCELERER
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LE FLANC
ORIENTAL DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER VERS
LES MOYENNES LATITUDES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES MODELISATIONS, AVEC UNE EVACUATION
VERS LE SUD PLUS RAPIDE QU'IFS MAIS PLUS LENTE QUE GFS. A NOTER
QU'ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, IL POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OUEST
DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN COURS DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE, TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR SON INTENSITE DE
CTI ENCORE UN MOMENT MAIS UN RETOUR EPHEMERE AU STADE DE CTTI N'EST
PAS EXCLU DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT UN PEU AUGMENTER, PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT LUNDI EN
BORDURE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A
S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI. ENTRE MARDI ET
MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES,
COMBINEE A L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSE DU CISAILLEMENT EN
MARGE DU TALWEG, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : VAGUES DE 4 A 5 METRES ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080020
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 08/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 74.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
20.2 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
20.4 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 75.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 75.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.3S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.5S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.0S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.9S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.6S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 30.5S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 36.7S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 75.3E.
07FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 932 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z AND 082100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 75.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/7.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SW: 400 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/08 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 400 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/09 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/09 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/10 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 345 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2025/02/10 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/11 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 470 SW: 335 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/12 18 UTC: 37.7 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 445 SW: 240 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.5+ CI=7.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED
UNCHANGED. THE SSMIS F17 MICROWAVE FROM 1348Z AND THE AMSU FROM 1646Z
SHOW A PERFECTLY CIRCULAR EYE WITH A CLEAR CONVECTIVE RING
SURROUNDING IT. HOWEVER, THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT THIS
RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS GIVES A FINAL T OF 7.0 TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE
PREVIOUS NETWORK BY INERTIA. BUT THE SAR PASS AT 1327Z MEASURED A MAX
WIND OF 110KT AND THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES PREDICTED A MAX WIND OF 105
TO 115KT. IN THE END, THE 115KT VALUE WILL BE RETAINED AS IT IS THE
CLOSEST TO THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND, DRIVEN ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD SLOW
THE MOVEMENT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE
MORE THAN 500 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE RSMC TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, WITH A SOUTHWARD EVACUATION FASTER
THAN IFS BUT SLOWER THAN GFS. NOTE THAT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY, IT COULD PASS CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM WHILE
UNDERGOING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW WIND SHEAR, VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT COULD KEEP AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO
VITC STAGE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND POSSIBLY EVEN OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FUTURE ERC COULD CAUSE SHORT-TERM
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. FROM SUNDAY EVENING, WIND SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AT THE EDGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. VINCE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER COOLER WATERS, COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES: WAVES NEAR 4 TO 5 METERS FROM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071831
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 75.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/7.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 925 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 115 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SO: 400 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 08/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 400 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 09/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 09/02/2025 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 10/02/2025 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SO: 345 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 10/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 325 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2025 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 470 SO: 335 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 12/02/2025 18 UTC: 37.7 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 445 SO: 240 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 175

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.5+ CI=7.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST MAINTENUE. LA MICRO-ONDE SSMIS F17 DE 1348Z ET L'AMSU DE 1646Z
MONTRENT UN OEIL PARFAITEMENT CIRCULAIRE AVEC UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF
BIEN NET QUI L'ENTOURE. CEPENDANT LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES
MONTRENT QUE CET ANNEAU A SOMMETS NUAGEUX FROIDS S'EST LEGEREMENT
RECHAUFFE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN T FINAL DE 7.0 POUR
MAINTENIR L'INTENSITE DU RESEAU PRECEDENT PAR INERTIE. MAIS LA PASSE
SAR DE 1327Z MESURE UN VENT MAX DE 110KT ET LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES
PRONENT POUR UN VENT MAX DE 105 A 115KT. C'EST FINALEMENT LA VALEUR
115KT QUI SERA RETENUE PUISQUE C'EST LA PLUS PROCHE DE L'ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A CE WEEK-END, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE PUIS L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT ET INDUIRE UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. CE VIRAGE DEVRAIT S'EFFECTUER A PLUS DE 500 KM A
L'EST-SUD-EST DE RODRIGUES. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCELERER
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LE FLANC
ORIENTAL DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER VERS
LES MOYENNES LATITUDES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES MODELISATIONS, AVEC UNE EVACUATION
VERS LE SUD PLUS RAPIDE QU'IFS MAIS PLUS LENTE QUE GFS. A NOTER
QU'ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, IL POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OUEST
DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN COURS DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE, TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE
PROCHE DU STADE CTTI AU MOINS DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES VOIRE ENCORE
CE WEEK-END, MAIS LA POSSIBILITE D'UN EVENTUEL FUTUR ERC POURRAIT
CAUSER DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT UN PEU AUGMENTER, PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT LUNDI EN
BORDURE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A
S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI. ENTRE MARDI ET
MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES,
COMBINEE A L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSE DU CISAILLEMENT EN
MARGE DU TALWEG, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : VAGUES DE 4 A 5 METRES ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071815
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 925 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 75.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/08 AT 18 UTC:
20.2 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/8/20242025
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 77.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 923 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 380 SW: 400 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/08 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 390 SW: 380 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/08 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/09 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 415 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 435 SW: 350 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/10 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SW: 360 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/10 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SW: 345 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/11 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 455 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

120H: 2025/02/12 12 UTC: 35.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 480 SW: 315 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. THE
EYE REMAINS VERY NEAT AND PERFECTLY CIRCULAR, WHILE THE CONVECTIVE
RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS STRENGTHENED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
GIVES A DT BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0, BUT CLOSER TO 7.0 ON THE LATEST
IMAGES. THE PT-ADJUSTED MET IS ALSO 7.0. THE FINAL T-NUMBER IS
THEREFORE SET AT 7.0-. A PARTIAL GPM MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 09UTC
SEEMS TO SHOW A WELL-CONSOLIDATED CONVECTIVE CORE WITH NO SIGNS OF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, AS DO FORMER IMAGES (0404Z AMSU, 0439Z
NOAA19). THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO 120 KT,
MAKING VINCE A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (VITC) AT ALMOST 20
DEGREES SOUTH OF LATITUDE, WHICH IS A REMARKABLE FEAT FOR OUR BASIN.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND, DRIVEN ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD SLOW
THE MOVEMENT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE
MORE THAN 500 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE RSMC TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, WITH A SOUTHWARD EVACUATION FASTER
THAN IFS BUT SLOWER THAN GFS. NOTE THAT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY, IT COULD PASS CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM WHILE
UNDERGOING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW WIND SHEAR, VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT COULD KEEP AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO
VITC STAGE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND POSSIBLY EVEN OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FUTURE ERC COULD CAUSE SHORT-TERM
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. FROM SUNDAY EVENING, WIND SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AT THE EDGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. VINCE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER COOLER WATERS, COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES: WAVES NEAR 4 TO 5 METERS FROM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071231
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 77.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 7.0/7.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 923 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 120 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 380 SO: 400 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 390 SO: 380 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 08/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SO: 360 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 09/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 415 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 09/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 435 SO: 350 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 10/02/2025 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SO: 360 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 10/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SO: 345 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2025 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 455 SO: 335 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

120H: 12/02/2025 12 UTC: 35.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 480 SO: 315 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=7.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST ENCORE UN PEU AMELIOREE. L'OEIL EST RESTE TRES NET ET
PARFAITEMENT CIRCULAIRE ET L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF A SOMMETS FROIDS S'EST
RENFORCE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN DT ENTRE 6.5 ET 7.0,
MAIS PLUS PROCHE DE 7.0 SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. LE MET AJUSTE PAR
LE PT EST EGALEMENT A 7.0. LE NOMBRE T FINAL EST DONC ETABLI A 7.0-.
UNE PASSE MICRO-ONDES GPM PARTIELLE VERS 09UTC SEMBLE MONTRER UN
COEUR CONVECTIF BIEN CONSOLIDE ET SANS SIGNE DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT
DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC), TOUT COMME LES IMAGES PRECEDENTES (AMSU A
0404Z, NOAA19 A 0439Z). L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST DONC AUGMENTEE A
120 KT, FAISANT DE VINCE UN CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE (CTTI) A
PRES DE 20 DEGRES SUD DE LATITUDE, CE QUI EST REMARQUABLE POUR NOTRE
BASSIN.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A CE WEEK-END, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE PUIS L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT ET INDUIRE UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. CE VIRAGE DEVRAIT S'EFFECTUER A PLUS DE 500 KM A
L'EST-SUD-EST DE RODRIGUES. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCELERER
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LE FLANC
ORIENTAL DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER VERS
LES MOYENNES LATITUDES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES MODELISATIONS, AVEC UNE EVACUATION
VERS LE SUD PLUS RAPIDE QU'IFS MAIS PLUS LENTE QUE GFS. A NOTER
QU'ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, IL POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE OUEST
DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN COURS DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE, TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). IL POURRAIT MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE
PROCHE DU STADE CTTI AU MOINS DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES VOIRE ENCORE
CE WEEK-END, MAIS LA POSSIBILITE D'UN EVENTUEL FUTUR ERC POURRAIT
CAUSER DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT UN PEU AUGMENTER, PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT LUNDI EN
BORDURE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A
S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI. ENTRE MARDI ET
MERCREDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES,
COMBINEE A L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET A LA HAUSE DU CISAILLEMENT EN
MARGE DU TALWEG, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : VAGUES DE 4 A 5 METRES ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071212
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 923 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 77.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/120 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 205 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
20.2 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 78.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 929 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 390 SW: 405 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/08 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/09 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/09 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 445 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/10 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 345 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/11 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 480 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/12 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 480 SW: 315 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5+

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. THE EYE HAS
BECOME VERY NEAT AND PERFECTLY CIRCULAR, WHILE WARMING UP. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A DT OF 6.5. IT CAN BE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE EYE'S PERFECT DEFINITION, GIVING A FINAL T-NUMBER OF
6.5+. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SIGN OF THE EFFECTS OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WITH AN INNER CONVECTIVE CORE STILL VERY
SOLID ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES, EVEN THOUGH THE 0118Z SSMIS-F17
SHOWS A POSSIBLE OUTER CONVECTIVE RING, WHICH COULD HINT ABOUT
POSSIBLE FUTURE ERC. THE 0403Z ASCAT-B PASS ENABLED TO UPDATE THE
NEAR-GALE AND GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSIONS. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT
115 KT, IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND ADT/AIDT ESTIMATES, BUT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT SAR DATA AND IN THE
CONTEXT OF A POSSIBLE ERC ONSET.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND, DRIVEN ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD SLOW
THE MOVEMENT AND INDUCE A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS TURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE
MORE THAN 500 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE RSMC TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS, WITH A SOUTHWARD EVACUATION FASTER
THAN IFS BUT SLOWER THAN GFS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW WIND SHEAR, VERY
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE). AN INTENSIFICATION TO VERY INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ERC MAKES THIS OCCURRENCE UNCERTAIN AND
COULD CAUSE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, WIND SHEAR IS SET TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THEN
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY ALONG THE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
VINCE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS.
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM ON
COOLER WATERS, COMBINED WITH BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AT THE EDGE OF
THE TROUGH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME POST-TROPICAL WHILE
MAINTAINING SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

- RODRIGUES: WAVES NEAR 4 METERS FROM SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070632
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 78.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 929 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 115 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 390 SO: 405 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 08/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 08/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 09/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 09/02/2025 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 445 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 10/02/2025 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SO: 345 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2025 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 480 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 12/02/2025 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 480 SO: 315 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST AMELIOREE. L'OEIL EST DEVENU TRES NET ET PARFAITEMENT
CIRCULAIRE, TOUT EN SE RECHAUFFANT. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE
UN DT A 6.5, QUI PEUT ETRE LEGEREMENT AUGMENTE POUR TENIR COMPTE DE
LA PARFAITE DEFINITION DE L'OEIL, D'OU UN NOMBRE T FINAL A 6.5+. IL
N'Y A PAS DE SIGNE EVIDENT DES EFFETS D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC), AVEC UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF INTERNE ENCORE TRES
SOLIDE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES, MEME SI LA SSMIS-F17 DE
0118Z MONTRAIT LA MISE EN PLACE D'UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF EXTERNE, QUI
POURRAIT PRESAGER D'UN EVENTUEL FUTUR ERC. LA PASSE ASCAT-B DE 0403Z
PERMET DE METTRE A JOUR LES EXTENSIONS DE GRAND FRAIS ET COUP DE
VENT. L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 115 KT, EN ACCORD AVEC L'ESTIMATION
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ET L'ADT/AIDT, MAIS RESTE INCERTAINE EN L'ABSENCE
DE DONNEES SAR RECENTES ET DANS LE CONTEXTE D'UN EVENTUEL DEBUT
D'ERC.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A CE WEEK-END, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE PUIS L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT ET INDUIRE UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. CE VIRAGE DEVRAIT S'EFFECTUER A PLUS DE 500 KM A
L'EST-SUD-EST DE RODRIGUES. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ACCELERER
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LE FLANC
ORIENTAL DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER VERS
LES MOYENNES LATITUDES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS EST
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES MODELISATIONS, AVEC UNE EVACUATION
VERS LE SUD PLUS RAPIDE QU'IFS MAIS PLUS LENTE QUE GFS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE, TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). UNE INTENSIFICATION AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE EST POSSIBLE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES OU EN
COURS DE WEEK-END, MAIS LA POSSIBILITE D'UN EVENTUEL ERC REND CETTE
OCCURRENCE INCERTAINE ET POURRAIT CAUSER DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE
DIFFICILES A PREVOIR. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
UN PEU AUGMENTER, PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT LUNDI EN BORDURE DU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR
PROGRESSIVEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI. ENTRE MARDI ET MERCREDI, AVEC
L'ARRIVEE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, COMBINEE A
L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE EN MARGE DU TALWEG, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR POST-TROPICAL TOUT EN GARDANT UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

- RODRIGUES : VAGUES PROCHES DE 4 METRES ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI
MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070609
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 929 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 78.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
20.0 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070014
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 79.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/08 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/08 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/09 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/10 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 435 SW: 305 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/11 00 UTC: 28.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/12 00 UTC: 33.9 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 405 SW: 345 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ACCORDING TO THE 1934 GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE,
VINCE HAS BEGUN AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, CAUSING A SLIGHT DROP
IN INTENSITY. DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS GAVE A T OF
6.0+. OBJECTIVE CIMSS ANALYSES ALSO POINT TO A DROP IN INTENSITY.
VINCE REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF
100KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST, DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS SET TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN THE MAIN FLOW AND
STEERING IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH. ALL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO. DISPERSION REMAINS LOW, EVEN IF
IFS PROPOSES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN GFS BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY
TURN. THE RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES
AVAILABLE, REMAINING CLOSE TO AIFS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, WEAKENING SHEAR,
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY AND
REACH THE STAGE OF A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE, THERE COULD BE
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN VINCE'S INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY IF THE EYE WALL
IS REPLACED AGAIN. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN THE ITC AND VICT
STAGES. THEN, FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE A
LITTLE, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY. VINCE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY, THEN MORE RAPIDLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS MORE MARKED WIND SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED COMPARED
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. VINCE'S DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE ALSO SLIGHTLY DELAYED COMPARED WITH THE LAST FORECAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND :

- RODRIGUES: SWELL OF UP TO 4M ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070014
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 79.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2025 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 325 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 08/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 08/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 09/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 360 SO: 345 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 09/02/2025 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SO: 305 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 10/02/2025 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 435 SO: 305 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2025 00 UTC: 28.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 12/02/2025 00 UTC: 33.9 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 405 SO: 345 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, D'APRES L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES GCOM DE
1934, VINCE A AMORCE UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL,
PROVOCANT UNE LEGERE BAISSE D'INTENSITE. LES AMALYSES EN OEIL DVORAK
MOYENNEE SUR LES 3 HEURES DONNES UN T DE 6.0+. LES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS PLAIDENT AUSSI POUR UNE BAISSE D'INTENSITE. VINCE
EST DONC MAINTENU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE MAIS AVEC DES
VENTS MAX DE 100KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. VINCE EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE VINCE, FAVORISANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS SON ORIENTATION
AU SUD-OUEST PUIS AU SUD. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES RESTE EN ACCORD
AVEC CE SCENARIO. LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE, MEME SI IFS PROPOSE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS AU NORD QUE GFS AVANT LE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES, EN RESTANT PROCHE DE AIFS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT,
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE). IL POURRAIT DONC S'INTENSIFIER ET
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES. AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, ETANT DONNEE SA
PETITE TAILLE, DES FLUCTUATIONS RAPIDES DE L'INTENSITE DE VINCE
POURRAIENT AVOIR LIEU, NOTAMMENT EN CAS DE NOUVEAU REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL. IL DEVRAIT CEPENDANT RESTER ENTRE LE STADE DE CTI ET
CTTI. PUIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT UN PEU
AUGMENTER, PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT LUNDI. VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER
A S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT PUIS PLUS RAPIDEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI.
L'ARRIVEE DE CE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT PLUS MARQUE EST UN PEU RETARDE
PAR RAPPORT A LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE. LA BAISSE D'INTENSITE DE VINCE
EST DONC ELLE AUSSI UN PEU RETARDEE SUR LA DERNIERE PREVISION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

- RODRIGUES : HOULE POUVANT ATTEINDRE 4M DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A
LUNDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070008
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 79.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
19.9 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 80.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 80.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.0S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.2S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.4S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.6S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.7S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.0S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 29.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 80.2E.
06FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1319
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
061800Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z
IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061812
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 80.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/07 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 345 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/08 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/09 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/09 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 315 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/10 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 480 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/11 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 470 SW: 285 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND
BECOME ALMOST ANNULAR, WITH UNIFORM CONVECTION ALL AROUND THE CENTER.
DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 6.5 TO 7.0, WITH A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 6.5+.
CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OSCILLATE AROUND 115KT. VINCE IS THEREFORE
MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF
115KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST, DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS SET TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN THE MAIN FLOW AND
STEERING IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH. ALL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO. DISPERSION REMAINS LOW, EVEN IF
IFS PROPOSES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN GFS BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY
TURN. THE RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES
AVAILABLE, REMAINING CLOSE TO AIFS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, WEAKENING SHEAR,
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT COULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY IN THE ABSENCE OF A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, REACHING
THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN, FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, THE SHEAR IS SET TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, BEFORE BECOMING
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY. VINCE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY, AND MORE RAPIDLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND :

- RODRIGUES: SWELL OF UP TO 4M ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061812
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 80.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 930 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 115 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2025 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 07/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 345 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 08/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 08/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 09/02/2025 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SO: 325 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 09/02/2025 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SO: 315 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2025 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 480 SO: 305 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 11/02/2025 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 470 SO: 285 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST AMELIOREE ET EST DEVENUE QUASIMENT ANNULAIRE AVEC UNE
CONVECTION UNIFORME TOUT AUTOUR DU CENTRE. LES ANALYSES DVORAK
OSCILLENT ENTRE 6.5 ET 7.0 AVEC UNE MOYENNE SUR 3H DE 6.5+. LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS OSCILLENT AUTOUR DE 115KT. VINCE EST
DONC MAINTENU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVEC DES VENTS MAX
DE 115KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. VINCE EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE VINCE, FAVORISANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS SON ORIENTATION
AU SUD-OUEST PUIS AU SUD. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES RESTE EN ACCORD
AVEC CE SCENARIO. LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE, MEME SI IFS PROPOSE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS AU NORD QUE GFS AVANT LE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES, EN RESTANT PROCHE DE AIFS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT,
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE). IL POURRAIT DONC CONTINUER A
S'INTENSIFIER EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVEAU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL ET ATTEINDRE AU COURS DE LA NUIT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
TRES INTENSE. IL DEVRAIT MAINTENIR CETTE INTENSITE LES PROCHAINS
JOURS. PUIS A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT UN PEU
AUGMENTER, PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT DIMANCHE. VINCE DEVRAIT ALORS
COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT PUIS PLUS RAPIDEMENT A PARTIR
DE LUNDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

- RODRIGUES : HOULE POUVANT ATTEINDRE 4M DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A
LUNDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061807
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 930 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 80.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
19.8 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
20.0 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061240 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 81.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/08 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2025/02/08 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/09 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/10 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 445 SW: 315 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2025/02/11 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 500 SW: 315 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED, AS
CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE EYE HAS STRENGTHENED, AS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMSR2 FROM 0839Z , GMI FROM 0948E AND F18
FROM 1090Z). THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS 6.0, EQUIVALENT TO A
MAX WIND OF 100KT. OBJECTIVE CIMSS ANALYSES (DMINT, DPRINT,
SATCON,...) ARE BETWEEN 90 AND 100KT. THE CHOSEN INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE 100KT.

AS FOR THE TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST, DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN THE STEERING
FLOW AND PUSHING IT SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DISPERSION REMAINS LOW, EVEN
IF IFS PROPOSES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN GFS BEFORE THE TURN TO
THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WEAKENING
SHEAR, INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT COULD THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE ABSENCE OF A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. FROM SATURDAY, THE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND PUT AN END TO
VINCE'S STRENGTHENING. THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AT FIRST,
THEN MORE RAPIDLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND :

ON RODRIGUES: VINCE IS GENERATING A CYCLONIC SWELL WITH WAVES THAT
COULD REACH A HEIGHT OF 4 METRES NEAR THE COAST FROM SUNDAY EVENING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061240 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 81.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 946 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 07/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 08/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 08/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 09/02/2025 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 09/02/2025 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2025 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 445 SO: 315 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 11/02/2025 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 500 SO: 315 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST AMELIOREE COMME LE CONFIRMENT LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE.
LA CONVECTION DANS LA PARTIE SUD-EST DE L'OEIL S'EST RENFORCEE COMME
ON PEUT LE VOIR SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (AMSR2 DE 0839Z
, GMI DE 0948E ET F18 DE 1090Z). L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE EST DE
6.0, EQUIVALENT A UN VENT MAX DE 100KT. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU
CIMSS (DMINT, DPRINT, SATCON,..) SE SITUENT ENTRE 90 ET 100KT.
L'INTENSITE RETENUE EST DONC 100KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. VINCE EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE VINCE, FAVORISANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS SON ORIENTATION
AU SUD-OUEST PUIS AU SUD. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES RESTE EN ACCORD
AVEC CE SCENARIO. LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE, MEME SI IFS PROPOSE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS AU NORD QUE GFS AVANT LE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DE
BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT, DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE). IL
POURRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVEAU CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ET METTRE FIN A L'INTENSIFICATION DE VINCE.
ENSUITE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR D'ABORD LENTEMENT PUIS PLUS
RAPIDEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

SUR RODRIGUES : VINCE GENERE UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE AVEC DES VAGUES QUI
POURRAIENT ATTEINDRE UNE HAUTEUR DE 4 METRES PRES DE LA COTE A PARTIR
DE DIMANCHE SOIR.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 81.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/08 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2025/02/08 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/09 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/10 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 445 SW: 315 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2025/02/11 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 500 SW: 315 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED, AS
CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE EYE HAS STRENGTHENED, AS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMSR2 FROM 0839Z , GMI FROM 0948E AND F18
FROM 1090Z). THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS 6.0, EQUIVALENT TO A
MAX WIND OF 100KT. OBJECTIVE CIMSS ANALYSES (DMINT, DPRINT,
SATCON,...) ARE BETWEEN 90 AND 100KT. THE CHOSEN INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE 100KT.

AS FOR THE TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST, DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN THE STEERING
FLOW AND PUSHING IT SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DISPERSION REMAINS LOW, EVEN
IF IFS PROPOSES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN GFS BEFORE THE TURN TO
THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WEAKENING
SHEAR, INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT COULD THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE ABSENCE OF A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. FROM SATURDAY, THE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND PUT AN END TO
VINCE'S STRENGTHENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY AT FIRST,
THEN MORE RAPIDLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND :

ON RODRIGUES: VINCE IS GENERATING A CYCLONIC SWELL WITH WAVES THAT
COULD REACH A HEIGHT OF 4 METRES NEAR THE COAST FROM SUNDAY EVENING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061228
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 81.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 946 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 07/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 08/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 08/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 09/02/2025 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 09/02/2025 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2025 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 445 SO: 315 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 11/02/2025 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 500 SO: 315 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST AMELIOREE COMME LE CONFIRMENT LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE.
LA CONVECTION DANS LA PARTIE SUD-EST DE L'OEIL S'EST RENFORCEE COMME
ON PEUT LE VOIR SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (AMSR2 DE 0839Z
, GMI DE 0948E ET F18 DE 1090Z). L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE EST DE
6.0, EQUIVALENT A UN VENT MAX DE 100KT. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU
CIMSS (DMINT, DPRINT, SATCON,..) SE SITUENT ENTRE 90 ET 100KT.
L'INTENSITE RETENUE EST DONC 100KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. VINCE EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE VINCE, FAVORISANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS SON ORIENTATION
AU SUD-OUEST PUIS AU SUD. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES RESTE EN ACCORD
AVEC CE SCENARIO. LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE, MEME SI IFS PROPOSE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS AU NORD QUE GFS AVANT LE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DE
BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT, DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE). IL
POURRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVEAU CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ET METTRE FIN A L'INTENSIFICATION DE VINCE. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR ENSUITE D'ABORD LENTEMENT PUIS PLUS
RAPIDEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

SUR RODRIGUES : VINCE GENERE UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE AVEC DES VAGUES QUI
POURRAIENT ATTEINDRE UNE HAUTEUR DE 4 METRES PRES DE LA COTE A PARTIR
DE DIMANCHE SOIR.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061203
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 946 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 81.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO
350 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
19.9 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
20.2 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.3S 82.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 82.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.7S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.0S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.3S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.6S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.5S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.5S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.6S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 82.0E.
06FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 936
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 82.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/06 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/07 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 325 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2025/02/08 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/09 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 345 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/10 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SW: 345 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2025/02/11 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 470 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, VINCE'S EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
IN THE LATEST IMAGES. THE LAST VISIBLE METOP IMAGE FROM 0339Z ALLOWS
US TO ACCURATELY POSITION THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES ARE
AT 5.5, (EQUIVALENT TO A MAX WIND RANGING FROM 75 TO 95KT). OBJECTIVE
CIMSS ANALYSES (DMINT, DPRINT, SATCON,...) ARE BETWEEN 80 AND 95KT.
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90KT.

AS FOR THE TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST, DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN THE STEERING
FLOW AND PUSHING IT SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. SPREAD REMAINS PARTICULARLY
LOW, EVEN IF THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MOTION SPEED LATE IN
THE FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WEAKENING
SHEAR, INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT COULD THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE ABSENCE OF A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. FROM SATURDAY, THE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND PUT AN END TO
VINCE'S STRENGTHENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN PARTICULARLY FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS.

ON RODRIGUES: VINCE IS GENERATING A CYCLONIC SWELL WITH WAVES THAT
COULD REACH A HEIGHT OF 4 METRES NEAR THE COAST FROM SUNDAY EVENING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060643
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 82.4 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2025 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 07/02/2025 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SO: 295 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 07/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 325 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 08/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 08/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 09/02/2025 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SO: 345 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2025 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SO: 345 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 11/02/2025 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 470 SO: 280 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 80 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST MAINTENUE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. LA DERNIERE IMAGE VISIBLE
METOP DE 0339Z PERMET DE POSITIONNER LE CENTRE AVEC PRECISION. LES
ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES SONT A 5.5, (EQUIVALENT A UN VENT MAX
ALLANT DE 75 A 95KT). LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS (DMINT,
DPRINT, SATCON,..) SE SITUENT ENTRE 80 ET 95KT. L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 90KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. VINCE EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE VINCE, FAVORISANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS SON ORIENTATION
AU SUD-OUEST PUIS AU SUD. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES RESTE EN ACCORD
AVEC CE SCENARIO. LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE, MEME SI DES ECARTS DANS
LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT SONT PRESENTS EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DE
BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT, DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE). IL
POURRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVEAU CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ET METTRE FIN A L'INTENSIFICATION DE VINCE. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR NOTAMMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

SUR RODRIGUES : VINCE GENERE UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE AVEC DES VAGUES QUI
POURRAIENT ATTEINDRE UNE HAUTEUR DE 4 METRES PRES DE LA COTE A PARTIR
DE DIMANCHE SOIR.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060606
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 82.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO
310 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
19.6 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
19.9 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 83.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2025/02/08 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2025/02/08 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 345 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/09 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/10 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 465 SW: 350 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2025/02/11 00 UTC: 29.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 480 SW: 305 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, VINCE'S EYE PATTERN PERSISTED, ALTHOUGH IT
LOST DEFINITION IN THE LATEST IMAGES. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE (
2136Z SSMIS) SEEMS TO SHOW THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES STILL RANGE FROM
5.0 TO 5.5, (EQUIVALENT TO A MAXIMUM WIND OF 75 TO 95KT). OBJECTIVE
CIMSS ANALYSES (DMINT, DPRINT, SATCON,...) ARE BETWEEN 80 AND 90KT.
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90KT.

AS FOR THE TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST, DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN THE STEERING
FLOW AND PUSHING IT SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. SPREAD REMAINS PARTICULARLY
LOW, EVEN IF THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MOTION SPEED LATE IN
THE FORECAST. YET, THERE IS A TREND FOR A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WEAKENING
SHEAR, INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT COULD THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE ABSENCE OF A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. FROM SATURDAY, THE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND PUT AN END TO
VINCE'S STRENGTHENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN PARTICULARLY FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060029
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 83.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 270 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2025 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 07/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 07/02/2025 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 08/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 08/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SO: 345 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 09/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2025 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 465 SO: 350 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 11/02/2025 00 UTC: 29.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 480 SO: 305 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST MAINTENUE, MEME SI ELLE A PERDU EN DEFINITION SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES. LA DERNIERE IMAGE MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS 2136Z) SEMBLENT MONTRER
LA DISPARITION DE LA FAIBLESSE DANS LE MUR SUD-EST. LES ANALYSES
DVORAK SUBJECTIVES OSCILLENT TOUJOURS ENTRE 5.0 ET 5.5, (EQUIVALENT A
UN VENT MAX ALLANT DE 75 A 95KT). LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS
(DMINT, DPRINT, SATCON,..) SE SITUENT ENTRE 80 ET 90KT. L'INTENSITE
EST MAINTENUE A 90KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. VINCE EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE VINCE, FAVORISANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS SON ORIENTATION
AU SUD-OUEST PUIS AU SUD. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES RESTE EN ACCORD
AVEC CE SCENARIO. LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE, MEME SI DES ECARTS DANS
LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT SONT PRESENTS EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. ON PEUT
CEPENDANT NOTER, UNE TENDANCE D'UN DECALAGE VERS LE NORD DANS LES
GUIDANCES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DE
BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT, DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE). IL
POURRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVEAU CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ET METTRE FIN A L'INTENSIFICATION DE VINCE. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR NOTAMMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060018
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 83.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER5

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
19.3 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 83.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/06 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/07 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 325 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/08 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/09 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/10 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 445 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, VINCE'S EYE PATTERN REMAINED DESPITE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS. MICROWAVE IMAGES (1308Z SSMIS AND 1641Z AMSU) STILL
SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST WALL, PERHAPS
RELATED TO A NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 5.0 TO 5.5, (EQUIVALENT TO 75 TO 95KT
MAXIMUM WINDS). THE 1243Z SMAP PASS GAVE AN INTENSITY OF 84KT, WHILE
THE 1628Z ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS ABOVE 75KT. IN THIS
CONTEXT, THE INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 90KT.

AS FOR THE TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST, DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN THE STEERING
FLOW AND PUSHING IT SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. SPREAD REMAINS PARTICULARLY
LOW, EVEN IF THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MOTION SPEED LATE IN
THE FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WEAKENING
SHEAR, INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT COULD THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE ABSENCE OF A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. FROM SATURDAY, THE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND PUT AN END TO
VINCE'S STRENGTHENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN PARTICULARLY FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051822
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8 S / 83.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2025 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 06/02/2025 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 07/02/2025 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SO: 325 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 07/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 08/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SO: 335 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 08/02/2025 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2025 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 10/02/2025 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 445 SO: 325 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE
S'EST MAINTENUE, MALGRE QUELQUES FLUCTUATIONS. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
(SSMIS 1308Z ET AMSU 1641Z) MONTRENT ENCORE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LE MUR SUD-EST, PEUT ETRE EN LIEN AVEC UNE CONTRAINTE
DE NORD-EST EN MOYENNE TROPOSHERE. LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES
OSCILLANT ENTRE 5.0 ET 5.5, (EQUIVLAENT A UN VENT MAX ALLANT DE 75 A
95KT). LA PASSE SMAP DE 1243Z DONNAIT UNE INTENSITE DE 84KT TANDIS
QUE LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1628Z SUGGERE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX SUPERIEURS A
75KT. DANS CE CONTEXTE, L'INTENSITE A ETE MAINTENUE A 90KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. VINCE EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE VINCE, FAVORISANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS SON ORIENTATION
AU SUD-OUEST PUIS AU SUD. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES RESTE EN ACCORD
AVEC CE SCENARIO. LA DISPERSION RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT FAIBLE, MEME
SI DES ECARTS DANS LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT SONT PRESENTS EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DE
BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLISSANT, DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE). IL
POURRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVEAU CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ET METTRE FIN A L'INTENSIFICATION DE VINCE. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR NOTAMMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051812
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 83.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER5

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
19.1 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
19.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 84.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/06 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2025/02/08 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2025/02/08 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 455 SW: 390 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2025/02/10 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 470 SW: 350 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE, WITH MORE HOMOGENEOUS CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER.
DVORAK ANALYSES AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS GIVE A T OF 5.5. ON THE OTHER
HAND, CIMSS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF
90KT. VINCE IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH 90KT WINDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF
THE EYE WALL VISIBLE ON THE INFRARED IMAGES OF GCOM 0756 AND F18
1028, WITH A SLIGHT TILT BETWEEN 37 AND 89 GHZ.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST, DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS SET TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING THE MAIN FLOW AND
TURNING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALL THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS REMAIN IN LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TO SLIP TOWARDS THE
NORTHERLY TRACK. DISPERSION REMAINS PARTICULARLY LOW, BUT INCREASES
ON SUNDAY AT THE START AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TURN, SHOWING A LITTLE
MORE DISPERSION ON THE TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE). IT COULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
GRADUALLY. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE PEAK OF
VINCE DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ANALYSIS. THEN FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, THE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND PUT AN END TO THE
INTENSIFICATION OF VINCE. VINCE'S INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
AT THESE TIMES, LINKED TO A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE
EYEWALL, COULD ALSO OCCUR.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051226
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.7 S / 84.5 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 06/02/2025 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 07/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 07/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 08/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 08/02/2025 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2025 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 455 SO: 390 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 10/02/2025 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 470 SO: 350 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 80 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE VINCE A
CONTINUE A SE CONSOLIDER AVEC UNE CONVECTION DAVANTAGE HOMOGENE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE. LES ANALYSES DVORAK MOYENNEES SUR 3 HEURES DONNENT
UN T DE 5.5. PAR AILLEURS, LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DU
CIMSS PROPOSENT UNE INTENSITE DE 90KT. VINCE EST DONC UPGRADE AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVEC DES VENTS DE 90KT. ON NOTERA
CEPENDANT UNE FAIBLESSE DANS L'EST DU MUR DE L'OEIL VISIBLE SUR LES
IMAGES INFRA ROUGES DE LA GCOM DE 0756 ET LA F18 DE 1028 AVEC UN
LEGER TILT ENTRE LA 37 ET LA 89 GHZ.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. VINCE EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE VINCE, FAVORISANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS SON ORIENTATION
AU SUD-OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES RESTE EN ACCORD AVEC CE
SCENARIO AVEC UNE PETITE TENDANCE A GLISSER VERS LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
LE NORD. LA DISPERSION RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT FAIBLE, AUGMENTANT
TOUTEFOIS A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE SUR LE DEBUT ET L'AMPLITUDE DU
VIRAGE, FAISANT APPARAITRE UN PEU PLUS DE DISPERSION SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT
FAIBLE, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). IL POURRAIT DONC CONTINUER A
S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST LEGEREMENT
SUPERIEURE SUR LE PIC DE VINCE EN RAISON DE L'ANALYSE REVUE UN PEU A
LA HAUSSE. PUIS A PARTIR DE SAMEDI LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER ET METTRE FIN A L'INTENSIFICATION DE VINCE. L'INTENSITE DE
VINCE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR PROGRESSIEVEMENT A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE. DES
FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE, DIFFICILES A PREVOIR A CES ECHEANCES, EN
LIEN AVEC UN EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
POURRAIENT AUSSI AVOIR LIEU.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051208
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 84.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER5

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
19.1 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.4S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.9S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.3S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.7S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.6S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.6S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 26.0S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 85.2E.
05FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050708
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 85.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/05 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/06 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/07 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 325 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2025/02/08 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/09 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2025/02/10 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 470 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW ALMOST ANNULAR. THE SAR IMAGE FROM 2343Z
CONFIRMS WINDS OF 75KT AT 00UTC. THE BESTRACK HAS THEREFORE BEEN
MODIFIED IN THIS DIRECTION. THE ASCAT PASS AT 0315Z ALSO MEASURES
WINDS AROUND 75KT. THE DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3H GIVES A T
OF 5.0-, THE MET 6.0. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE AROUND 80KT. THE
RSMC ANALYSIS IS THEREFORE TO MAINTAIN VINCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
WITH WINDS OF 80KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. VINCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST, DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS SET TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING THE MAIN FLOW AND
TURNING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALL THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS REMAIN IN LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TO SLIP TOWARDS THE
NORTHERLY TRACK. DISPERSION REMAINS PARTICULARLY LOW, BUT INCREASES
ON SUNDAY AT THE START AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TURN, SHOWING A LITTLE
MORE DISPERSION ON THE TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, VINCE IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT SHOULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY GRADUALLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, REACHING THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE SHEAR SHOULD
STRENGTHEN, BRINGING VINCE'S INTENSIFICATION TO AN END. VINCE'S
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM SUNDAY. FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY, DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THESE TIMES, LINKED TO A POSSIBLE
REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL, COULD ALSO OCCUR.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050708
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8 S / 85.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2025 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 06/02/2025 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 06/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 07/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 325 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 07/02/2025 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 08/02/2025 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SO: 345 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2025 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 10/02/2025 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 470 SO: 345 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 80 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL DE
VINCE S'EST NETTEMENT AMELIOREE ET IL EST MAINTENANT QUASIMENT
ANNULAIRE. L'IMAGE SAR DE 2343Z CONFIRME DES VENTS A 75KT A 00UTC. LA
BESTRACK A DONC ETE MODIFIEE DANS CE SENS. PUIS LA PASSE ASCAT DE
0315Z MESURE AUSSI DES VENTS AUTOUR DE 75KT. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL
MOYENNEE SUR 3H DONNE UN T DE 5.0-, LE MET 6.0. LES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS SONT AUTOUR DE 80KT. L'ANALYSE DU CMRS EST DONC
DE MAINTENIR VINCE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, AVEC DES VENTS DE
80KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT. VINCE EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE VINCE, FAVORISANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS SON ORIENTATION
AU SUD-OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES RESTE EN ACCORD AVEC CE
SCENARIO AVEC UNE PETITE TENDANCE A GLISSER VERS LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
LE NORD. LA DISPERSION RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT FAIBLE, AUGMENTANT
TOUTEFOIS A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE SUR LE DEBUT ET L'AMPLITUDE DU
VIRAGE, FAISANT APPARAITRE UN PEU PLUS DE DISPERSION SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, VINCE BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT
FAIBLE, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). IL DEVRAIT DONC S'INTENSIFIER
PROGRESSIVEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES POUR ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE DANS LES 24-36H. PUIS A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ET METTRE FIN A
L'INTENSIFICATION DE VINCE. L'INTENSITE DE VINCE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR
PROGRESSIEVEMENT A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE. DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE,
DIFFICILES A PREVOIR A CES ECHEANCES, EN LIEN AVEC UN EVENTUEL CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIENT AUSSI AVOIR LIEU.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050700 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 85.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
19.1 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050623
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 85.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
19.1 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050047
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 86.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/05 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/06 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 325 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2025/02/08 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/09 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/10 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 445 SW: 360 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE VINCE'S EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY, BUT IS STILL CLOUDY-EYED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COOLED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR, WHILE IT IS A LITTLE LESS MARKED
IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. WITH THE LAST GCOM-W MICROWAVE OF 1944UTC
SHOWING A MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, THERE ARE SIGNS OF CONTINUED
INTENSITY, WHICH SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS AND USING DVORAK ANALYSIS OVER SHORT PERIODS, WE CAN
DEFINE A T OF 4.5 WELL ABOVE THE ADT ANALYSES. WINDS OF THE ORDER OF
70KT ARE THEREFORE ESTIMATED FOR VINCE AT 00UTC, ALSO EXCEEDING
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS SET TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. T THE
END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF VINCE,
GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN THE MAIN FLOW AND STEERING IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE A LITTLE MORE PRESENT, THE TRACK
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTERLY A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
ALL THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS REMAIN IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH A
SLIGHT TENDENCY TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTHERLY TRACK. DISPERSION
REMAINS PARTICULARLY LOW, BUT WILL INCREASE AS SUNDAY APPROACHES ON
THE START AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TURN, REVEALING A FEW MORE ERRORS ON
THE TRACK, BOTH CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK.

IN TERMS OF THE ENVIRONMENT, VINCE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM SUFFICIENT
OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG THIS TRACK, IF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T SLOW DOWN
TOO MUCH BY SUNDAY AS IT HEADS SOUTHWEST. AS FOR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS, THE MODERATE SHEAR CURRENTLY PRESENT IS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD STRENGTHEN. VINCE
SHOULD THEREFORE UNDERGO A NEW PHASE OF REGULAR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD THEN REACH THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING A LITTLE MORE PRESENT, THE DEEP WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, BUT FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT
THEREFORE LEAVES A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION THAN IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, DIFFICULT
TO PREDICT AT THESE TIMES, LINKED TO A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF
THE EYEWALL, COULD OCCUR. IMPACTED BY THE SHEAR AND MORE PRESENT DRY
AIR, VINCE INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050047
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6 S / 86.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 80 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2025 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 06/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 260 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 06/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 07/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 07/02/2025 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SO: 325 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 08/02/2025 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 380 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2025 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 10/02/2025 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 445 SO: 360 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 80 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL DE
VINCE S'EST UN PEU AMELIOREE MAIS PRESENTE TOUJOURS UN OEIL ENVAHI
PAR LES NUAGES. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST BIEN REFROIDIE DANS LE
SECTEUR NORD ALORS QU'ELLE EST UN PEU MOINS MARQUEE DANS LE SECTEUR
SUD. AVEC LA DERNIERE MICRO-ONDE GCOM-W DE 1944UTC QUI PRESENTE UNE
STRUCTURE PLUS SYMETRIQUE, DES SIGNES D'UN MAINTIEN D'INTENSITE QUI
DEVRAIENT ETRE SUIVIS PAR UNE INTENSIFICATION APPARAISSENT. DANS CES
CONDITIONS ET A L'AIDE D'UNE ANALYSE DVORAK SUR DES COURTES PERIODES,
ON PEUT DEFINIR UN T DE 4.5 BIEN AU DESSUS DES ANALYSES ADT. DES
VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 70KT SONT DONC ESTIMES POUR VINCE A 00UTC,
SURCLASSANT AUSSI LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU SE
DEPLACER AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS EN DIRECTION DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SON DEPLACEMENT EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. N FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE VINCE, FAVORISANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS SON ORIENTATION
AU SUD-OUEST. CEPENDANT, LA DORSALE ETANT UN PEU PLUS PRESENTE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT VIRER VERS LE SUD-OUEST UN PEU PLUS TARDIVEMENT
QUE PREVU PRECEDEMMENT. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES RESTE EN ACCORD AVEC
CE SCENARIO AVEC UNE PETITE TENDANCE A GLISSER VERS LA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE NORD. LA DISPERSION RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT FAIBLE, AUGMENTANT
TOUTEFOIS A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE SUR LE DEBUT ET L'AMPLITUDE DU
VIRAGE, FAISANT APPARAITRE UN PEU PLUS D'ERREURS SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
QUE CE SOIT TRANSVERSALES OU LONGITUDINALES.

EN TERME D'ENVIRONNEMENT, VINCE DEVRAIT BENEFICIER LE LONG DE CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT, SI LE SYSTEME NE
RALENTIT PAS DE TROP A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE LORS DE SON ORIENTATION
VERS LE SUD-OUEST. POUR CE QUI EST DES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES, LE
CISAILLEMENT MODERE ACTUELLEMENT PRESENT FAIBLIT PROGRESSIVEMENT,
TANDIS QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIT SE RENFORCER. VINCE
DEVRAIT DONC CONNAITRE UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE
EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE MERCREDI ET JEUDI. IL DEVRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. AVEC LA DORSALE QUI RESTE UN
PEU PLUS PRESENTE, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND D'OUEST DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER MAIS A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. CET
ENVIRONNEMENT LAISSE DONC UN PEU PLUS DE POTENTIEL POUR UN
INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUE QUE DANS LE PRECEDENTE PREVISION.
CEPENDANT, DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE, DIFFICILES A PREVOIR A CES
ECHEANCES, EN LIEN AVEC UN EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL POURRAIENT AVOIR LIEU. IMPACTE PAR LE CISAILLEMENT ET PAR UN
AIR SEC PLUS PRESENT, L'INTENSITE DE VINCE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR PLUS
NETTEMENT A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050002
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 86.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
110 NM IN THE WEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/05 AT 12 UTC:
19.2 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
19.6 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 88.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 88.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.7S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.2S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.2S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.0S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.0S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.7S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 87.5E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1741
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
041800Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 88.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/05 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/05 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/06 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/06 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/07 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2025/02/07 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/08 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SW: 370 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/09 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, VINCE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE, WITH AN EYE INVADED BY CLOUDS. THIS CONTINUED
DEGRADATION IS PROBABLY THE CONSEQUENCE OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE FOR
THE EYE WALL. INDEED, ANALYSIS OF WIND PROFILES USING RCM2 DATA FROM
FEBRUARY 03 AT 2333UTC AND TODAY AT 1224UTC SHOWS A WEAKENING AND
WIDENING OF THE STRUCTURE. DVORAK ANALYSES OVER SHORT PERIODS AND ADT
DATA SHOW WEAKENING. AT 18UTC, A T OF 4.5- CAN BE DEFINED, LEAVING A
CI OF 4.5, I.E. ESTIMATED WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 70KT, WHICH IS
VALIDATED BY THE 78KT 10-MINUTE AVERAGE OF THE SAR AT 1224UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE IS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY, WITH WINDS OF AROUND
70KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, VINCE IS SET TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS. ITS MOVEMENT IS BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE
RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING THE MAIN
FLOW AND TURNING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALL GUIDELINES ARE IN LINE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. DISPERSION REMAINS PARTICULARLY LOW, BUT WILL INCREASE
BY SUNDAY ON THE START AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TURN, REVEALING A FEW
MORE CROSS-TRACK ERRORS.

IN TERMS OF THE ENVIRONMENT, VINCE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM SUFFICIENT
OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG THIS TRACK, IF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T SLOW DOWN
TOO MUCH BY SUNDAY AS IT HEADS SOUTHWEST. AS FOR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS, THE MODERATE SHEAR CURRENTLY PRESENT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD
STRENGTHEN. VINCE SHOULD THEREFORE UNDERGO A NEW PHASE OF REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD THEN REACH THE
STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE DEEP
WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
LIMIT VINCE'S INTENSITY AND THUS CONTRIBUTE TO ITS SLOW BUT
PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING. FROM FRIDAY, MORE MARKED FLUCTUATIONS LINKED
TO A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD OCCUR.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041842
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 88.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 80 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2025 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 05/02/2025 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 06/02/2025 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 06/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 07/02/2025 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 07/02/2025 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2025 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SO: 370 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 09/02/2025 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 480 SO: 390 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 80 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE VINCE A
CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER AVEC UN OEIL ENVAHI PAR LES NUAGES. LA
CONTINUITE DE CETTE DEGRADATION RESTE PROBABLEMENT LA CONSEQUENCE
D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. EN EFFET, L'ANALYSE DES
PROFILS DE VENT VIA LES DONNEES RCM2 DU 03 FEVRIER A 2333UTC ET DE CE
JOUR A 1224UTC MONTRE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET UN ELARGISSEMENT DE LA
STRUCTURE. LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUR DES PERIODES COURTES AINSI QUE LES
DONNEES ADT MONTRENT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. A 18UTC, UN T DE
4.5- PEUT ETRE DEFINI LAISSANT UN CI A 4.5 SOIT DES VENTS ESTIMES DE
L'ORDRE DE 70KT, CE QUE VALIDENT LES 78KT MOYENNES SUR 10 MINUTES DE
LA SAR DE 1224UTC. LE CYCLONE TROPICAL VINCE PRESENTE UN LEGER
AFFAIBLISSEMENT, AVEC DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 70KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU SE DEPLACER AU COURS DES 5
PROCHAINS JOURS EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SON DEPLACEMENT
EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU
SYSTEME. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE
VINCE, FAVORISANT UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS
SON ORIENTATION AU SUD-OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES EST EN ACCORD
AVEC CE SCENARIO. LA DISPERSION RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT FAIBLE,
AUGMENTANT TOUTEFOIS A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE SUR LE DEBUT ET
L'AMPLITUDE DU VIRAGE, FAISANT APPARAITRE UN PEU PLUS D'ERREURS
TRANSVERSALES SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE.

EN TERME D'ENVIRONNEMENT, VINCE DEVRAIT BENEFICIER LE LONG DE CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT, SI LE SYSTEME NE
RALENTIT PAS DE TROP A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE LORS DE SON ORIENTATION
VERS LE SUD-OUEST. POUR CE QUI EST DES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES, LE
CISAILLEMENT MODERE ACTUELLEMENT PRESENT DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT
FAIBLIR DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, TANDIS QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
POURRAIT SE RENFORCER. VINCE DEVRAIT DONC CONNAITRE UNE NOUVELLE
PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE MERCREDI ET JEUDI. IL DEVRAIT ALORS
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI,
LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND D'OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER.
CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEVRAIT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DE VINCE ET DONC
CONTRIBUER A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT MAIS PROGRESSIF A PARTIR
VENDREDI, DES FLUCTUATIONS PLUS MARQUES EN LIEN AVEC UN EVENTUEL
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIENT AVOIR LIEU.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041801
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 04/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 88.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/05 AT 06 UTC:
19.0 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
19.5 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/8/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 89.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 345 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/05 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

24H: 2025/02/05 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/02/06 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/02/06 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2025/02/07 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2025/02/07 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/08 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2025/02/09 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 445 SW: 400 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, VINCE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED, WITH
THE EYE BECOMING LESS AND LESS VISIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. THIS
EVOLUTION IS PROBABLY THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE ONSET OF AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE LAST NIGHT, IN A NORTH-EASTERLY SHEARED AND DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES ( 1038Z
SSMIS AND 0926Z GMI) STILL SHOW THE PRESENCE OF THE DOUBLE STRUCTURE,
BUT WITH AN INNER EYEWALL CLEARLY OPEN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (ADT, DPRINT, DMINT) FROM CIMSS AND
PARTIAL DATA FROM THE AMSR2 PASS SUGGEST AN INTENSITY BETWEEN 65 AND
75KT. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 70KT.

REGARDING ITS TRACK, VINCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT REMAINS TO ITS SOUTHEAST. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF VINCE, GRADUALLY SLOWING THE STEERING FLOW AND
SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARDS. ALL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. SPREADING REMAINS PARTICULARLY LOW.

REGARDING ITS ENVIRONMENT, VINCE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A FAIR OCEANIC
POTENTIAL ALONG ITS TRACK (SST CLOSE TO 27C), BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT
AT LONGER RANGE. THE CURRENT SHEAR THIS TUESDAY SHOULD EASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD STRENGTHEN.
VINCE SHOULD THEREFORE EXPERIENCE A NEW STRENGTHENING PHASE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SO REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE DEEP WESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THIS ENVIRONMENT, ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, SHOULD LIMIT VINCE'S
INTENSITY BEYOND THIS POINT.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041233
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/8/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (VINCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 89.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 345 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2025 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 315 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

24H: 05/02/2025 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 06/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 06/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 07/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 325 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 07/02/2025 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2025 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 360 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 09/02/2025 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 445 SO: 400 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE VINCE
S'EST DEGRADEE AVEC NOTAMMENT UN OEIL DE MOINS EN MOINS VISIBLE EN
IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. CETTE EVOLUTION EST PROBABLEMENT LA CONSEQUENCE
DU DEMARRAGE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL, LA NUIT
DERNIERE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE DE NORD-EST ET SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS 1038Z ET
GMI 0926Z) MONTRENT ENCORE LA PRESENCE DE LA DOUBLE STRUCTURE, MAIS
AVEC UN MUR INTERNE NETTEMENT OUVERT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. LES
DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (ADT, DPRINT, DMINT) DU CIMSS ET LES
DONNEES PARTIELLES DE LA PASSE AMSR2 SUGGERENT UNE INTENSITE ENTRE 65
ET 75KT. L'INTENSITE EST DONC FIXE A 70KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, VINCE EST PREVU SE DEPLACER AU COURS DES 5
PROCHAINS JOURS EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SON DEPLACEMENT
EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD-EST DU
SYSTEME. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE DEVRAIT SE DECALER A L'EST DE
VINCE, FAVORISANT UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PUIS
SON ORIENTATION AU SUD. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES EST EN ACCORD AVEC
CE SCENARIO. LA DISPERSION RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT FAIBLE.

EN TERME D'ENVIRONNEMENT, VINCE DEVRAIT BENEFICIER LE LONG DE CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE CORRECT (TSM PROCHE DES 27C),
DEVENANT PLUS IMPORTANT EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE. LE CISAILLEMENT
PRESENT CE MARDI DEVRAIT FAIBLIR DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, TANDIS QUE
LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIT SE RENFORCER. VINCE DEVRAIT DONC
CONNAITRE UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION MERCREDI ET JEUDI. IL
DEVRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND D'OUEST DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER. CET ENVIRONNEMENT AINSI QUE
L'EVENTUALITE D'UN NOUVEAU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
DEVRAIT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DE VINCE AU DELA.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041214
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 04/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 89.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 230 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/05 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 86.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 10 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 10 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/05 AT 12 UTC:
19.4 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 90.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 90.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.4S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.1S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.6S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.2S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.0S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.0S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.2S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 89.6E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z AND 050900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 040654
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:18S090E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0654 UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0600 UTC SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE WAS CENTRED WITHIN 15
NAUTICAL MILES
OF
LATITUDE SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT SOUTH (17.8S)
LONGITUDE EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN EAST (89.7E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST SOUTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 80 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 80 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS BY
1800 UTC 04
FEBRUARY.

WINDS ABOVE 64 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH VERY HIGH SEAS.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS
AND HEAVY
SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1800 UTC 04 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF 18.4 SOUTH 87.7
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA.
WINDS TO 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
AT 0600 UTC 05 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 18.8 SOUTH 85.4
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA.
WINDS TO 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 040053
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:17S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0053 UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0000 UTC SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE WAS CENTRED WITHIN 15
NAUTICAL MILES
OF
LATITUDE SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE SOUTH (17.3S)
LONGITUDE NINETY ONE DECIMAL ZERO EAST (91.0E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST SOUTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 75 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS BY
1200 UTC 04
FEBRUARY.

WINDS ABOVE 64 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH VERY HIGH SEAS.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS
AND HEAVY
SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 90
NAUTICAL MILES
BY 1800 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
WITH ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1200 UTC 04 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF 18.2 SOUTH 88.7
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 HPA.
WINDS TO 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
AT 0000 UTC 05 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 18.8 SOUTH 86.3
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 HPA.
WINDS TO 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 UTC 04 FEBRUARY 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 031849
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:17S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 1849 UTC 3 FEBRUARY 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 1800 UTC SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20
NAUTICAL MILES
OF
LATITUDE SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE SOUTH (17.1S)
LONGITUDE NINETY TWO DECIMAL TWO EAST (92.2E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 14 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 75 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS BY
0600 UTC 04
FEBRUARY.

WINDS ABOVE 64 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
WITH HIGH SEAS.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 90
NAUTICAL MILES
BY 1800 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
WITH ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 0600 UTC 04 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 17.8 SOUTH 89.9
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 HPA.
WINDS TO 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
AT 1800 UTC 04 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 18.4 SOUTH 87.5
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 HPA.
WINDS TO 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0100 UTC 04 FEBRUARY 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 031251
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:17S094E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 1251 UTC 3 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 1200 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE SOUTH (16.9S)
LONGITUDE NINETY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT EAST (93.8E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 50 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
0000 UTC 04
FEBRUARY.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
INCREASING TO
160 NAUTICAL MILES BY 1800 UTC 3 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 160
NAUTICAL
MILES BY 1800 UTC 3 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 80
NAUTICAL MILES
BY 1200 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
WITH ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
INCREASING TO 50
NAUTICAL MILES BY 0600 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 50
NAUTICAL MILES
BY 0600 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT FROM 0000 UTC 4
FEBRUARY
WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 0000 UTC 04 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 17.5 SOUTH 91.3
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 HPA.
WINDS TO 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
AT 1200 UTC 04 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF 18.2 SOUTH 89.1
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 HPA.
WINDS TO 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 UTC 03 FEBRUARY 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 94.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 94.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.3S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.1S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.8S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.3S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.0S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.0S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.6S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 94.3E.
03FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 030656
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:17S095E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0656 UTC 3 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0600 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX SOUTH (16.6S)
LONGITUDE NINETY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO EAST (95.0E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 50 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
0600 UTC 04
FEBRUARY.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
INCREASING TO
140 NAUTICAL MILES BY 0600 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 140
NAUTICAL
MILES BY 0600 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 80
NAUTICAL MILES
BY 0600 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
WITH ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
INCREASING TO 60
NAUTICAL MILES BY 0600 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 60
NAUTICAL MILES
BY 0600 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT FROM 0000 UTC 4
FEBRUARY
WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1800 UTC 03 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 17.4 SOUTH 92.8
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 HPA.
WINDS TO 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
AT 0600 UTC 04 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 18.1 SOUTH 90.3
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 HPA.
WINDS TO 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 UTC 03 FEBRUARY 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 030057
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:16S096E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0057 UTC 3 FEBRUARY 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO SOUTH (16.2S)
LONGITUDE NINETY SIX DECIMAL THREE EAST (96.3E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST SOUTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 40 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN S QUADRANTS
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN N QUADRANTS.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
0000 UTC 04
FEBRUARY.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
INCREASING TO
160 NAUTICAL MILES BY 1800 UTC 3 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 160
NAUTICAL
MILES BY 1800 UTC 3 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 90
NAUTICAL MILES
BY 0000 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT, INCREASING TO 90
NAUTICAL MILES
BY 0000 UTC 4 FEBRUARY
WITH ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

FROM 0600 UTC 3 FEBRUARY WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL
MILES IN SE
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS
AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1200 UTC 03 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 16.8 SOUTH 94.4
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
AT 0000 UTC 04 FEBRUARY: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 17.6 SOUTH 91.8
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HPA.
WINDS TO 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 UTC 03 FEBRUARY 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

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