Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GARANCE-25
in La Reunion

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Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020711
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/10/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.5 S / 58.8 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 425 SW: 295 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 415 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 130

36H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 37.1 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 150

48H: 2025/03/04 06 UTC: 39.5 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 185



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN,
DISPLACED QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT AS
WIND SHEAR KEEPS INCREASING, LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED.
THE SYSTEM'S CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BROADER AND ELONGATED AND THE
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ADOPT BAROCLINIC-LIKE FRONTAL FEATURES.
GARANCE IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING OVER INCREASINGLY COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, CLOSE TO 23C, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO ITS WEAKENING.
THIS EVOLUTION LEADS US TO CLASSIFY GARANCE AS A POST-TROPICAL
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KT, IN LINE WITH THE 0434Z
ASCAT-B PASS.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS TURNING SOUTH-EAST THEN EAST-SOUTH-EAST,
GRADUALLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO GUIDED BY THE
WESTERLY FLOW FURTHER SOUTH. GARANCE WILL THEREFORE RAPIDLY MOVE AWAY
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES, PASSING CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GARANCE COULD MAINTAIN WINDS CLOSE TO 45/50 KT
UNTIL TONIGHT DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
EFFECTS, BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS. AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM,
INTENSITY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 35 KT.


LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION ON THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON
TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED
AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020711
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/10/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 33.5 S / 58.8 E
(TRENTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 425 SO: 295 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/03/2025 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 415 SO: 280 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 0

24H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 130

36H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 37.1 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 150

48H: 04/03/2025 06 UTC: 39.5 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 390 SO: 280 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 185



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUE DE
FAIBLIR, REJETEE LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET
DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LAISSANT LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
EXPOSE. LA CIRCULATION EST DEVENUE PLUS LARGE ET ALLONGEE, ET LE
SYSTEME COMMENCE A ADOPTER DES STRUCTURES FRONTALES. GARANCE CIRCULE
ACTUELLEMENT SUR DES EAUX DE SURFACE DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAICHES,
PROCHES DE 23C, CE QUI CONTRIBUE A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CETTE
EVOLUTION PERMET DE DECLASSER GARANCE AU STADE DE SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL. LES VENTS MAXIMAUX SONT ESTIMES A 45 KT EN COHERENCE
AVEC LA PASSE ASCAT-B DE 0434Z.

LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST PUIS EST-SUD-EST, GLISSANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT AU SUD DE LA DORSALE ET GUIDEE PAR LA CIRCULATION
D'OUEST EXISTANTE PLUS AU SUD. GARANCE S'EVACUERA DONC RAPIDEMENT
VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPEREES, PASSANT A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE
D'AMSTERDAM EN FIN DE NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GARANCE POURRAIT GARDER DES VENTS PROCHES DE
45/50 KT JUSQU'A LA NUIT PROCHAINE PAR DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES ET
PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DE PRESSION, PUIS LA DEPRESSION DEVRAIT
GRADUELLEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR ET DEVENIR EXTRATROPICALE EN JOURNEE DE
LUNDI. AU MOMENT DE PASSER PRES DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM, L'INTENSITE
DEVRAIT ETRE PROCHE DE 35 KT.


DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES SUR CE SYSTEME SERONT
DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN EMIS A
12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 020631
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 02/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (GARANCE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.5 S / 58.8 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 155 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 18 UTC:
34.4 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 06 UTC:
35.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 70 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE GMDSS MARINE WARNINGS FQIO20
FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06Z AND 18Z BY METEO FRANCE REUNION.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 020019
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 02/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.4 S / 56.8 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 12 UTC:
34.0 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 00 UTC:
34.6 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 011815
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 01/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 997 HPA
POSITION: 31.1 S / 55.4 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 06 UTC:
33.7 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 18 UTC:
34.6 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 011218
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/10/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.6 S / 54.6 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 185 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 120

36H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SW: 175 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 130

48H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 140

60H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 38.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 270

72H: 2025/03/04 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 760 SE: 445 SW: 205 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 415 SE: 285 SW: 175 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS FLUCTUATED WILDLY,
COLLAPSING DURING THE FIRST PERIOD THEN PICKING UP AGAIN TIMIDLY OVER
THE PAST 3 HOURS, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
SHEAR IS WEAKENING, THE SHEARED PATTERN LEAVES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
CLEARLY VISIBLE. IN THIS PATTERN, DVORAK ANALYSIS NO LONGER MAKES
MUCH SENSE, ALTHOUGH IT WAS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE PREVIOUS
ANALYSIS TIME. IN THE ABSENCE OF DIFFUSIOMETRIC DATA AND IN THIS
WEAKENING CONTEXT, WE CAN ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 45KT.
GARANCE IS DOWNGRADED TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS GENERAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, TO THE WEST OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE BASIN. BY SUNDAY, GARANCE SHOULD BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST, SLIDING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE, AND GUIDED BY THE EXISTING WESTERLY FLOW FURTHER SOUTH. IN
THIS CONTEXT, GARANCE WILL RAPIDLY EVACUATE TOWARDS SOUTHERN
LATITUDES, PASSING CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF AMSTERDAM LATE ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GARANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOSE STRENGTH IN
THE SHORT TERM UNDER THE EFFECT OF SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SHEAR.
DESPITE A SLIGHT TEMPORARY DECREASE IN WIND SHEAR WHICH IS ALREADY
NOTICEABLE, GARANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS
A RESULT OF THE RAPID DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S, WITH A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AT MOST BY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, WITH WINDS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN.

THIS PHENOMENON NO LONGER IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 011218
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/10/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 01/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.6 S / 54.6 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 95 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SO: 185 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 120

36H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SO: 175 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 130 NO: 130

48H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 120 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 140

60H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 38.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 240 SO: 140 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 270

72H: 04/03/2025 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 760 SE: 445 SO: 205 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 415 SE: 285 SO: 175 NO: 270
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST TRES
FLUCTUANTE, S'EFFONDRANT EN COURS DE PREMIERE PERIODE PUIS REPARTANT
TIMIDEMENT AUX COURS DES 3 DERNIERES HEURES, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST. BIEN QUE LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT FAIBLI, LA
CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE LAISSE LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES BIEN
VISIBLE. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION, L'ANALYSE DVORAK N'A PLUS VRAIMENT
DE SENS ALORS QU'ELLE ETAIT ENCORE POSSIBLE LORS DE RESEAU PRECEDENT.
EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES ET DANS CE CONTEXTE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ON PEUT ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 45KT.
GARANCE EST DECLASSEE EN TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT, LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT GENERAL VERS
LE SUD, A L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE SITUEE SUR LE CENTRE DU BASSIN. A
ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE, GARANCE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER AU SUD-EST PUIS A
L'EST-SUD-EST, GLISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT AU SUD DE LA DORSALE, ET
GUIDE EN PLUS PAR LA CIRCULATION D'OUEST EXISTANTE PLUS AU SUD. DANS
CE CONTEXTE, GARANCE S'EVACUERA RAPIDEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES SUD,
PASSANT A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE D'AMSTERDAM EN FIN DE NUIT DE LUNDI A
MARDI. LE CONSENSUS DES MODELES FOURNIT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE SUR CETTE
PREVISION.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, A COURT TERME, GARANCE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
PERDRE EN INTENSITE SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE SECTEUR
SUD-SUD-EST. MALGRE UNE LEGERE BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU CISAILLEMENT DEJA
NOTABLE, GARANCE NE DEVRAIT PAS CONNAITRE DE REINTENSIFICATION
FRANCHE EN RAISON DE LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD
DE 30S, TOUT AU PLUS UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION A ECHEANCE DE
DIMANCHE. GARANCE DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE, PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES
ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE, AVEC DES VENTS
POUVANT FORCIR DE NOUVEAU.

CE PHENOMENE N'IMPACTE PLUS DIRECTEMENT DE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 011202
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 01/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.6 S / 54.6 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
32.8 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 12 UTC:
34.4 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 27.8S 54.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S 54.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 31.1S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 33.6S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 55.0E.
01MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
439 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/10/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.6 S / 54.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/02 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 75

36H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 215 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 140

48H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SW: 165 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 165

60H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 36.7 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 185

72H: 2025/03/04 06 UTC: 38.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 665 SE: 345 SW: 185 NW: 545
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 360
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RESUMED, MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT DECREASE IN
SHEAR. THIS RENEWED CONVECTION MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO RESUME THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS. IN THE SHEAR PATTERN, THIS T-ANALYSIS YIELDS 3.5, WHICH IS
BACK TO YESTERDAY'S LAST CI VALUE AT 18UTC. IN THE FINAL MOMENTS, THE
CLOUD TOPS WARM UP AGAIN, SHOWING LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY OF
GARANCE. THE LAST ASCAT PASS OF 0453UTC VALIDATES WINDS OF AROUND
50KT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. GARANCE REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM
WITH WINDS OF 50KT.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS GENERAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, TO THE WEST OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE BASIN. BY SUNDAY, GARANCE SHOULD BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST, SLIDING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE, AND GUIDED BY THE EXISTING WESTERLY FLOW FURTHER SOUTH. IN
THIS CONTEXT, GARANCE WILL RAPIDLY EVACUATE TOWARDS SOUTHERN
LATITUDES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GARANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOSE STRENGTH IN
THE SHORT TERM UNDER THE EFFECT OF SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SHEAR. WITH A
SLIGHT TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE ALREADY NOTABLE SHEAR, GARANCE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID
DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S, WITH A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
AT MOST BY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, WITH WINDS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN.

THIS PHENOMENON NO LONGER IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010636
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/10/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 01/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.6 S / 54.7 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SO: 100 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/03/2025 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 02/03/2025 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 75

36H: 02/03/2025 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 215 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 140

48H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SO: 165 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 165

60H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 36.7 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 185

72H: 04/03/2025 06 UTC: 38.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 665 SE: 345 SO: 185 NO: 545
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 360
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A REPRIS ET SE
LOCALISE PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD DU SYSTEME, EN LIEN
AVEC LA BAISSE ACTUELLE DU CISAILLEMENT. CE REGAIN DE CONVECTION
PERMET DE REPRENDRE L'ANALYSE DVORAK. EN CONFIGURATION CISAILLE,
CETTE ANALYSE EN T PERMET D'AVOIR 3.5 RETROUVANT LA DERNIERE VALEUR
DE CI A 18UTC HIER. SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS, LES SOMMETS DES NUAGES
SE RECHAUFFENT DE NOUVEAU MONTRANT UN FAIBLE POTENTIEL DE REGAIN DE
GARANCE. LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT DE 0453UTC PERMET DE VALIDER DES
VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT VOIRE LEGEREMENT SUPERIEUR. GARANCE RESTE
ENCORE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 50KT.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT GENERAL VERS LE SUD, A L'OUEST DE
LA DORSALE SITUEE SUR LE CENTRE DU BASSIN. A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE,
GARANCE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER AU SUD-EST PUIS A L'EST-SUD-EST, GLISSANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT AU SUD DE LA DORSALE, ET GUIDE EN PLUS PAR LA
CIRCULATION D'OUEST EXISTANTE PLUS AU SUD. DANS CE CONTEXTE, GARANCE
S'EVACUERA RAPIDEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES SUD. LE CONSENSUS DES
MODELES FOURNIT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE SUR CETTE PREVISION.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, A COURT TERME, GARANCE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
PERDRE EN INTENSITE SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE SECTEUR
SUD-SUD-EST. A LA FAVEUR D'UNE LEGERE BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU
CISAILLEMENT DEJA NOTABLE, GARANCE NE DEVRAIT PAS CONNAITRE DE
REINTENSIFICATION FRANCHE EN RAISON DE LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 30S, TOUT AU PLUS UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION A
ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE. ELLE DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE, PROGRESSIVEMENT
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE, AVEC DES
VENTS POUVANT FORCIR DE NOUVEAU.

CE PHENOMENE N'IMPACTE PLUS DIRECTEMENT DE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 010559
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 01/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.6 S / 54.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 18 UTC:
30.9 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 06 UTC:
33.2 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010103
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9 S / 54.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 32.3 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65

36H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 33.7 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SW: 230 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 110

48H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 34.8 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 350 SW: 150 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 120

60H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 130 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 95

72H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED WEAK IN THE
VICINITY OF GARANCE'S CENTER, WITH MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPOSED. THE 1832Z ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED AN INTENSITY
CLOSE TO 60KT. IN VIEW OF THE DETERIORATION SINCE THEN, THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55KT.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS GENERAL SOUTHWARD MOTION, WEST OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WEEKEND, GARANCE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD,
ON THE POLAR SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

INTENSITY-WISE, IN THE SHORT TERM, GARANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
WEEKEND, DESPITE THE TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SHEAR, GARANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY DUE TO THE RAPID DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL
SOUTH OF 30S. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.

THIS PHENOMENON NO LONGER IMPACTS AN INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010103
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/10/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.9 S / 54.7 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SO: 100 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 0

24H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 32.3 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65

36H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 33.7 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SO: 230 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 110

48H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 34.8 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 350 SO: 150 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 120

60H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 130 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 95

72H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 37.9 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 140

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
FAIBLE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DE GARANCE AVEC UNE CIRCULATION DE
BASSES COUCHES EN GRANDE PARTIE EXPOSEE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1832Z
HIER SOIR A CONFIRME UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DES 60KT. AU VU DE LA
DEGRADATION DEPUIS, L'INTENSITE A ETE ABAISSE A 55KT.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT GENERAL VERS LE SUD, A L'OUEST DE
LA DORSALE. CE WEEK-END, GARANCE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER AU SUD-EST PUIS A
L'EST-SUD-EST, SUR LA FACADE POLAIRE DE LA DORSALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, A COURT TERME, GARANCE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
PERDRE EN INTENSITE SOUS L'EFFET DU FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
SECTEUR SUD. CE WEEK-END, MALGRE LA BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU
CISAILLEMENT, GARANCE NE DEVRAIT PAS CONNAITRE DE REINTENSIFICATION
EN RAISON DE LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 30S.
ELLE DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE, PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES
ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE.

CE PHENOMENE N'IMPACTE PLUS DIRECTEMENT UNE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 010026
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 01/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9 S / 54.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 12 UTC:
29.5 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
32.3 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 24.1S 54.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 54.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 27.5S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 30.8S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 33.1S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 54.9E.
28FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 981 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010900Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)
WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281855
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/10/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 54.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/02 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 405 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 65

60H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 75

72H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/04 18 UTC: 39.1 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 655 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 260


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GARANCE HAS DISPLAYED A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN
WITH THE SURFACE CENTER AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
MICROWAVE ( 1525Z GMI) AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT AN EYE HAS
PARTIALLY REFORMED, BUT WITH A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH-
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTH- EASTERLY SHEAR. IN THE
ABSENCE OF RELIABLE MEASUREMENTS, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 60KT
FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS GENERAL SOUTHWARD MOTION, WEST OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WEEKEND, GARANCE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD,
ON THE POLAR SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

INTENSITY-WISE, IN THE SHORT TERM, GARANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
WEEKEND, DESPITE THE TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SHEAR, GARANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY DUE TO THE RAPID DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL
SOUTH OF 30S. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.

THIS PHENOMENON NO LONGER IMPACTS AN INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281855
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/10/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.1 S / 54.9 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/03/2025 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

24H: 01/03/2025 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 02/03/2025 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 02/03/2025 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 405 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 65

60H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 155 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 75

72H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/03/2025 18 UTC: 39.1 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 655 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 260


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GARANCE A PRESENTE UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE CISAILEE AVEC UN CENTRE DE SURFACE A L'AVANT DE L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (GMI 1525Z) ET RADAR
MONTRENT QU'UN OEIL S'EST PARTIELLEMENT REFORME MAIS QU'IL PRESENTE
UN FAIBLESSE PERSISTANTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC
LE FORT CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST. EN L'ABSENCE DE MESURE FIABLES,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 60KT POUR L'INSTANT, MAIS CELA EST PEUT
ETRE CONSERVATEUR.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT GENERAL VERS LE SUD, A L'OUEST DE
LA DORSALE. CE WEEK-END, GARANCE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER AU SUD-EST PUIS A
L'EST-SUD-EST, SUR LA FACADE POLAIRE DE LA DORSALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, A COURT TERME, GARANCE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
PERDRE EN INTENSITE SOUS L'EFFET DU FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
SECTEUR SUD. CE WEEK-END, MALGRE LA BAISSE TEMPORAIRE DU
CISAILLEMENT, GARANCE NE DEVRAIT PAS CONNAITRE DE REINTENSIFICATION
EN RAISON DE LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 30S.
ELLE DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE, PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES
ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE.

CE PHENOMENE N'IMPACTE PLUS DIRECTEMENT UNE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 281811
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 28/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 54.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 06 UTC:
27.6 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 18 UTC:
31.1 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 281231
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 28/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 55.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 260 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 00 UTC:
26.0 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 12 UTC:
29.6 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 280621
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 28/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 55.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 18 UTC:
24.1 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 06 UTC:
27.7 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280118
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 55.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/03/01 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 295 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SW: 195 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SW: 155 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/05 00 UTC: 41.1 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 425 SW: 155 NW: 575
34 KT NE: 400 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 345
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED, PROBABLY DUE
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WINDSHEAR. CIMSS
DIAGNOSTICS AND THE AROME ENSEMBLE FORECAST POINT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDSHEAR OF THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30KT. THE SMALL STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING. SUBJECTIVE FMEE DVORAK ANALYSES,
COUPLED WITH ASCAT-B DATA FROM 1801Z AND SMAP DATA FROM 1446Z, POINT
TO AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 90KT.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS GENERAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE. IT
SHOULD THUS BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF REUNION ISLAND THIS
MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE, AND THEREFORE THE TIMING OF ITS IMPACT. OVER THE
WEEKEND, GARANCE IS SET TO MOVE SOUTHEAST, AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
TO THE WEST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM MITIGATED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DUE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE WINDSHEAR. THIS SMALL-SCALE SYSTEM IS SET TO BREAK UP
AS IT COMES INTO CONTACT WITH REUNION'S LANDMASS. OVER THE COMING
WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS, GARANCE COULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION:
- HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
- VERY HEAVY RAIN, BECOMING TORRENTIAL OVER THE RELIEF DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY EVENING AND REACHING 6-9M AT THE
MOMENT OF CLOSEST PASSAGE.
- FRIDAY MORNING SURGE OF UP TO 25-50CM.

MAURITIUS:
- DUE TO THE COMPACTNESS OF THE SYSTEM, THE ISLAND SHOULD NOT BE
AFFECTED BY THE GALE.
- TEMPORARY EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PERIPHERAL
BANDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
- HEAVY SEAS 4 TO 6M UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280118
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/10/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 55.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 01/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 0

48H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 295 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

60H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SO: 195 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

72H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SO: 155 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 110 NO: 0

120H: 05/03/2025 00 UTC: 41.1 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 425 SO: 155 NO: 575
34 KT NE: 400 SE: 250 SO: 110 NO: 345
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE GARANCE
S'EST DETERIOREE, SANS DOUTE DU AU RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LES DIAGNOSTICS DU CIMSS ET DE LA PREVISION
D'ENSEMBLE AROME, POINTENT UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-EST DE
L'ORDRE DE 25 A 30KT. LA PETITE STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME SEMBLE EN
SOUFFRIR. LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES FMEE DVORAK, COUPLEES AUX DONNEES
DE L'ASCAT-B DE 1801Z ET DE LA SMAP DE 1446Z PERMETTENT DE POINTER
UNE INTENSITE DE L'ORDRE DE 90KT.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT GENERAL VERS LE SUD, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD A L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE. IL
DEVRAIT AINSI CIRCULER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE LA REUNION CE MATIN.
IL PERSISTE UNE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME
ET DONC LE TIMING D'IMPACT. CE WEEK-END, GARANCE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER
AU SUD-EST, SOUS L'EFFET D'UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'OUEST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES MITIGEES EN RAISON DE L'AMPLIFIATION DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CE SYSTEME, DE PETITE TAILLE,
DEVRAIT SE DESTRUCTURER AU CONTACT DES TERRES REUNIONNAISES. EN COURS
DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN, EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LE SUD, GARANCE POURRAIT
COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR
DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS
BAROCLINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN ATTENDUS CE MATIN.
- PLUIES TRES FORTES, DEVENANT DILUVIENNES SUR LE RELIEF EN JOURNEE
DE VENDREDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR ET ATTEIGNANT 6-9M AU
MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES.
- SURCOTE EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI POUVANT ATTEINDRE 25 A 50CM.

ILE MAURICE :
- EN RAISON DE LA COMPACITE DU SYSTEME, L'ILE NE DEVRAIT PAS ETRE
CONCERNEE PAR LE COUP DE VENT.
- DES EPISODES TEMPORAIRES DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES DANS LES
BANDES PA RIPHERIQUES A L'AVANT DU SYSTEME.
- MER FORTE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 280012
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 28/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 55.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 12 UTC:
22.5 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 00 UTC:
25.7 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.0S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 27.0S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 30.5S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 33.2S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 55.2E.
27FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90
NM NORTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS
953 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
23S (HONDE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271906
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/10/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 55.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 951 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/02 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 260 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 35.1 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 165

120H: 2025/03/04 18 UTC: 40.3 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 675 SE: 400 SW: 215 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 350

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GARANCE HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE
PATTERN UNTIL 17Z, WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES EVOLVING BETWEEN
5.0 AND 5.5. THE EYE IN INFRA-RED IMAGERY HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION AS
A RESULT OF THE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR, ESTIMATED BY CIMSS TO BE OF
THE ORDER OF 20KT. THE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1601Z NEVERTHELESS
SHOWS A SOLID INTERNAL STRUCTURE WITH HIGH BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES AT
THE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 95KT, IN AGREEMENT
WITH ASCAT-B DATA FROM 1801Z, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (AIDT AND ADT) AND DOPPLER MEASUREMENTS FROM
COLORADO RADAR.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS GENERAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE. IT
SHOULD THUS CIRCULATE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF REUNION ON FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE, AND THEREFORE THE
TIMING OF ITS IMPACT, IS WIDELY DISPERSED. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
BASED IN PARTICULAR ON THE LATEST IFS AND CONW CONSENSUS FORECASTS,
WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT POSITION. THIS WEEKEND,
GARANCE IS SET TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE WEST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STILL TEMPORARILY BENEFITING
FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ENABLING IT TO REMAIN AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN
TO STRENGTHEN PROGRESSIVELY, LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. A
POSSIBLE EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE INFLUENCE OF REUNION'S RELIEF
COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING OF THIS SMALL-SCALE PHENOMENON. OVER
THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND
INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION :
- HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
- VERY HEAVY RAIN, BECOMING TORRENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER GROUND FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY EVENING ONWARDS, REACHING 6-9M AT
THE NEAREST.
- FRIDAY MORNING STORM SURGE POSSIBLY REACHING 25 TO 50CM.

MAURITIUS:
- DUE TO THE SYSTEM SMALL SIZE, THE ISLAND SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY
GALES.
- TEMPORARY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.
- ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M UP TO FRIDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271906
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/10/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 55.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 951 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2025 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 28/02/2025 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 01/03/2025 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 0

48H: 01/03/2025 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 0

60H: 02/03/2025 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 0

72H: 02/03/2025 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SO: 260 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 35.1 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 165

120H: 04/03/2025 18 UTC: 40.3 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 675 SE: 400 SO: 215 NO: 520
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 350

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GARANCE A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL BIEN DEFINI JUSQU'A 17Z AVEC DES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES
EVOLUANT ENTRE 5.0 ET 5.5. L'OEIL EN IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE A PERDU
LEGEREMENT EN DEFINITION, SUITE AU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE SECTEUR
SUD-EST, ESTIME DE L'ORDRE DE 20KT PAR LE CIMSS. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE
GPM DE 1601Z MONTRE TOUTEFOIS UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE SOLIDE AVEC DES
TEMPERATURES DE BRILLANCE ELEVEES AU NIVEAU DU COEUR CONVECTIF.
L'INTENSITE EST PORTEE A 95KT, EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES DE
L'ASCAT-B DE 1801Z, EN COHERENCE AVEC LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES (AIDT ET ADT) ET LES MESURES DOPPLER DU RADAR DU COLORADO.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT GENERAL VERS LE SUD, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD A L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE. IL
DEVRAIT AINSI CIRCULER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE LA REUNION VENDREDI
MATIN. IL EXISTE UNE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME ET DONC LE TIMING D'IMPACT. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE S'APPUIE
PARTICULIEREMENT SUR LES DERNIERES PREVISIONS IFS ET DU CONSENSUS
AMERICAIN CONW, PLUS EN ACCORD AVEC LA POSITION ACTUELLE. CE
WEEK-END, GARANCE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER AU SUD-EST, SOUS L'EFFET D'UN
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'OUEST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE ENCORE TEMPORAIREMENT DE
BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PERMETTANT UN MAINTIEN AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. EN REVANCHE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE RENFORCER PROGRESSIVEMENT CONDUISANT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. UN EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR
DE L'OEIL AINSI QUE L'INFLUENCE DU RELIEF DE LA REUNION POURRAIT
ACCELERER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CE PHENOMENE DE PETITE TAILLE. EN
COURS DE WEEK-END, EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LE SUD, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR
DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS
BAROCLINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN ATTENDUS VENDREDI MATIN.
- PLUIES TRES FORTES, DEVENANT DILUVIENNES SUR LE RELIEF A PARTIR DE
LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI JUSQU'EN JOURNEE
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR ET ATTEIGNANT 6-9M AU
MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES.
- SURCOTE EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI POUVANT ATTEINDRE 25 A 50CM.

ILE MAURICE :
- EN RAISON DE LA COMPACITE DU SYSTEME, L'ILE NE DEVRAIT PAS ETRE
CONCERNEE PAR LE COUP DE VENT.
- DES EPISODES TEMPORAIRES DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES DANS LES
BANDES PA RIPHERIQUES A L'AVANT DU SYSTEME.
- MER FORTE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 271810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 27/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE) 951 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 55.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 210 NM IN THE YY SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 06 UTC:
21.0 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 18 UTC:
24.0 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 55.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/28 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/01 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 140

120H: 2025/03/04 12 UTC: 37.6 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 285 SW: 110 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 295

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GARANCE HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE
PATTERN, WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 5.0 AND
5.5. THESE ESTIMATES APPEAR TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (SATCON, ADT) AND CONSISTENT WITH COLORADO RADAR
DOPPLER DATA. INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90KT. DEEP SHEAR HAS BEGUN
TO STRENGTHEN ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSIS.

THE SYSTEM KEEP ON MOVING SOUTHWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE
CIRCULATING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF REUNION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A STILL A DISCREPANCY IN THE SYSTEM'S MOTION SPEED, AND
THEREFORE IN THE IMPACT OF THE TIMING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED
PARTICULARLY ON THE LATEST IFS AND AMERICAN CONSENSUS FORECAST CONW,
WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT POSITION. THIS WEEKEND,
GARANCE IS SET TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE WEST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STILL TEMPORARILY BENEFITING
FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ENABLING IT TO REMAIN AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, STARTING OVERNIGHT, THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR
SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM
WEAKENING. A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS WELL AS THE
INFLUENCE OF REUNION'S TOPOGRAPHY COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING OF
THE PHENOMENON, ESPECIALLY AS IT REMAINS SMALL IN SIZE. OVER THE
WEEKEND, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARDS, IT COULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, WITH COOLER WATERS AND A MORE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION :
- HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
- VERY HEAVY RAIN, BECOMING TORRENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER GROUND FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY EVENING ONWARDS, REACHING 6-9M AT
THE NEAREST.
- FRIDAY MORNING STORM SURGE POSSIBLY REACHING 25 TO 50CM.

MAURITIUS:
- DUE TO THE SYSTEM SMALL SIZE, THE ISLAND SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY
GALES.
- TEMPORARY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.
- ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M UP TO FRIDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271300
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/10/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.7 S / 55.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 01/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

60H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 280 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 140

120H: 04/03/2025 12 UTC: 37.6 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 285 SO: 110 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 155 SO: 85 NO: 295

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GARANCE A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL BIEN DEFINI AVEC DES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES EVOLUANT ENTRE
5.0 ET 5.5. CES ESTIMATIONS SEMBLENT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (SATCON ET ADT) ET COHERENTE AVEC LES MESURES
DOPPLER DU RADAR DU COLORADO. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 90KT. LE
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND A COMMENCE A SE RENFORCER SELON LE DIAGNOSTIC DU
CIMSS.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD A L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE. IL DEVRAIT AINSI
CIRCULER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE LA REUNION VENDREDI MATIN. IL
EXISTE UNE DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME ET
DONC LE TIMING D'IMPACT. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE S'APPUIE
PARTICULIEREMENT SUR LES DERNIERES PREVISIONS IFS ET DU CONSENSUS
AMERICAIN CONW, PLUS EN ACCORD AVEC LA POSITION ACTUELLE. CE
WEEK-END, GARANCE DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER AU SUD-EST, SOUS L'EFFET D'UN
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'OUEST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE ENCORE TEMPORAIREMENT DE
BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PERMETTANT UN MAINTIEN AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. EN REVANCHE, A PARTIR DE LA NUIT
PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE RENFORCER
PROGRESSIVEMENT CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. UN
EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL AINSI QUE L'INFLUENCE
DU RELIEF DE LA REUNION POURRAIT ACCELERER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
PHENOMENE D'AUTANT QU'IL RESTE DE PETITE TAILLE. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LE SUD, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN PROBABLE VENDREDI MATIN.
- PLUIES TRES FORTES, DEVENANT DILUVIENNES SUR LE RELIEF A PARTIR DE
LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI JUSQU'EN JOURNEE
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR ET ATTEIGNANT 6-9M AU
MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES.
- SURCOTE EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI POUVANT ATTEINDRE 25 A 50CM.

ILE MAURICE :
- EN RAISON DE LA COMPACITE DU SYSTEME, L'ILE NE DEVRAIT PAS ETRE
CONCERNEE PAR LE COUP DE VENT.
- DES EPISODES TEMPORAIRES DE FORTES PLUIES SONT POSSIBLES
- MER FORTE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 271219
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 27/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 55.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 12 UTC:
22.4 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.4S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.4S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.9S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 27.1S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 32.6S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 34.9S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 55.4E.
27FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
138 NM NORTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 955 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 55.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/27 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/02 06 UTC: 32.4 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/04 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GARANCE HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE
PATTERN, WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 5.0 AND
5.5. THESE ESTIMATES APPEAR TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (SATCON, DMINT, ADT) AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
0226Z SMOS PASS, SO THE INTENSITY WAS SET AT 90KT.

DESPITE A SLIGHT DELAY IN TIMING, THE SYSTEM BEGAN MOVING SOUTHWARDS,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE
RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE CIRCULATING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF REUNION
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCY IN THE SYSTEM'S
MOTION SPEED, AND THEREFORE IN THE IMPACT TIMING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS BASED PARTICULARLY ON THE LATEST IFS AND AMERICAN
CONSENSUS FORECAST CONW, WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
POSITION. THIS WEEKEND, GARANCE IS SET TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDER
THE EFFECT OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE WEST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STILL TEMPORARILY BENEFITING
FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ENABLING IT TO REMAIN AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, STARTING OVERNIGHT, THE SOUTHERLY
SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM
WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARDS, IT COULD
BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, WITH COOLER WATERS AND A
MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION :
- HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
- VERY HEAVY RAIN, BECOMING TORRENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER GROUND FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY EVENING ONWARDS, REACHING 6-9M AT
THE NEAREST.
- FRIDAY MORNING STORM SURGE POSSIBLY REACHING 25 TO 50CM.

MAURITIUS:
- DUE TO THE SYSTEM SMALL SIZE, THE ISLAND SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY
GALES.
- ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M UP TO FRIDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270649
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 55.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2025 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 28/02/2025 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 28/02/2025 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 01/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

60H: 01/03/2025 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0

72H: 02/03/2025 06 UTC: 32.4 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 0

120H: 04/03/2025 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GARANCE A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL BIEN DEFINI AVEC DES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES EVOLUANT ENTRE
5.0 ET 5.5. CES ESTIMATIONS SEMBLENT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (SATCON, DMINT, ADT) ET COHERENTE AVEC LA
PASSES SMOS DE 0226Z, L'INTENSITE A DONC ETE FIXEE A 90KT.

MALGRE UN PEU DE RETARD DANS LE TIMING, LE SYSTEME A COMMENCE SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD
A L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE. IL POURRAIT AINSI CIRCULER A PROXIMITE
IMMEDIATE DE LA REUNION VENDREDI MATIN. IL EXISTE UNE DISPERSION
IMPORTANTE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME ET DONC LE TIMING
D'IMPACT. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE S'APPUIE PARTICULIEREMENT SUR LES
DERNIERES PREVISIONS IFS ET DU CONSENSUS AMERICAIN CONW, PLUS EN
ACCORD AVEC LA POSITION ACTUELLE. CE WEEK-END, GARANCE DEVRAIT
S'ORIENTER AU SUD-EST, SOUS L'EFFET D'UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE A
L'OUEST.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE ENCORE TEMPORAIREMENT
D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PERMETTANT UN MAINTIEN AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. EN REVANCHE, A PARTIR DE LA NUIT
PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE RENFORCER
PROGRESSIVEMENT CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. EN COURS
DE WEEK-END, EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LE SUD, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR
DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS
BAROCLINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN PROBABLE VENDREDI MATIN.
- PLUIES TRES FORTES, DEVENANT DILUVIENNES SUR LE RELIEF A PARTIR DE
LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI JUSQU'EN JOURNEE
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR ET ATTEIGNANT 6-9M AU
MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES.
- SURCOTE EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI POUVANT ATTEINDRE 25 A 50CM.

ILE MAURICE :
- EN RAISON DE LA COMPACITE DU SYSTEME, L'ILE NE DEVRAIT PAS ETRE
CONCERNEE PAR LE COUP DE VENT.
- MER FORTE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 270615
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 27/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 55.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 18 UTC:
19.3 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 06 UTC:
21.1 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270115
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 55.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 961 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/27 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/28 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/03/01 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 55 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

VER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE
ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS ADOPTED AN EYE CONFIGURATION. THE LATEST
SSMIS F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2338Z SHOWS A CONVECTIVE RING IN 85GHZ
AND 37GHZ, SLIGHTLY OPEN ON ITS WESTERN SIDE. INFRA-RED AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY ENABLED US TO CARRY OUT AN EYE ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATE THE CI
AT 5.5-, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85KT. OBJECTIVE
AMERICAN ANALYSES ARE A NOTCH LOWER. BUT THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION, THE FINE DIVERGENCE AT ALTITUDE AND THE APPEARANCE OF THE
EYE SUGGEST THAT WE'RE DEALING WITH THE INTENSITY OF AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. A MEAN MAX WIND OF 85KT HAS THEREFORE BEEN ADOPTED.

DESPITE A SLIGHT DELAY IN TIMING, THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN ITS SOUTHWARD
CURVE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW CHANNELED BY A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST. IT COULD THUS MOVE NORTH
OF REUNION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
RUNS REMAIN SCATTERED AND MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO BE PRECISE ABOUT THE
TIME OF PASSAGE OVER REUNION. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, GARANCE SHOULD
PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT MASCARENES, MOVING SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
THEN SOUTH-EAST, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE BASIN. ON THE MARGIN OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, GARANCE
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITING FROM FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ENABLING IT TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL THIS EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND, AS IT APPROACHES REUNION, A
SHEAR COULD SET IN AGAIN BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF REUNION, WHICH COULD
WEAKEN THE METEOR. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT OPTION IS STILL FOR THE UPPER
END OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS SHEAR IS SET TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, INITIATING A
WEAKENING AND A MORE ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM, WITH WEAKER WINDS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH, IT COULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION ISLAND:
- STORM FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
- VERY HEAVY RAIN, BECOMING TORRENTIAL OVER THE RELIEF DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING,
REACHING 6-9M AS THE STORM PASSES CLOSE BY.
- STORM SURGE OF 25CM BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT.

MAURITIUS: DUE TO THE COMPACTNESS OF THE SYSTEM
- THE GALE FORCE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD PASS OFF THE WEST COAST
OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270115
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 55.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 961 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2025 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 28/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 01/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 55 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 0

72H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 0

120H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE CONVECTIVE S'EST ENCORE
ORGANISEE ET LE SYSTEME A ADOPTE UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL. U
LA DERNIERE IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS F18 DE 2338Z MONTRE UN ANNEAU
CONVECTIF EN 85GHZ ET 37GHZ LEGEREMENT OUVERT SUR SA PARTIE OUEST.
L'IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE ET VISIBLE NOUS A PERMIS D'EFFECTUER UNE
ANALYSE EN OEIL ET D'ESTIMER LE CI A 5.5-, CE QUI CORRESPOND A DES
VENTS MAX DE 85KT. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES AMERICAINES SONT UN CRAN
EN DESSOUS. MAIS L'ASPECT ORGANISE DE LA CONVECTION, LA BELLE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET L'APPARITION DE L'OEIL NOUS INCITENT A
FROLER L'INTENSITE D'UN CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. C'EST DONC UN VENT
MOYEN MAX DE 85KT QUI EST RETENU.

MALGRE UN PEU DE RETARD DANS LE TIMING, LE SYSTEME A COMMENCE SA
COURBE VERS LE SUD, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD
CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT A L'EST. IL POURRAIT AINSI
CIRCULER AU NORD DE LA REUNION EN FIN DE NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
VOIRE VENDREDI DEBUT DE MATINEE. LES DERNIERS RUNS RESTENT DISPERSES
ET EMPECHENT D'ETRE PRECIS SUR L'HEURE DE PASSAGE SUR LA REUNION. EN
FIN DE SEMAINE, GARANCE DEVRAIT PASSER AU SUD DES GRANDES
MASCAREIGNES, TOUT EN S'ORIENTANT AU SUD-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-EST, SOUS
L'EFFET D'UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'OUEST DU BASSIN. EN MARGE
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, GARANCE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION MARQUEE DU SYSTEME
JUSQU'A CE SOIR. EN REVANCHE, A L'APPROCHE DE LA REUNION, UN
CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT SE METTRE A NOUVEAU EN PLACE AVANT LE PASSAGE
AU NORD DE LA REUNION, CE QUI POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR LE METEORE. L'OPTION
ACTUELLE TABLE NEANMOINS TOUJOURS POUR LE HAUT DU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
AUGMENTER DE NOUVEAU EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI AMORCANT UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET UN SYSTEME PLUS ASYMETRIQUE AVEC UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DES VENTS DU COTE OUEST DU SYSTEME. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LE SUD, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILE DE LA REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET LA NUIT SUIVANTE. VENTS
DE FORCE OURAGAN TRES PROBABLES DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI.
- PLUIES TRES FORTES, DEVENANT DILUVIENNES SUR LE RELIEF EN JOURNEE
DE JEUDI ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI SOIR.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR ET JUSQU'EN MATINEE DE
VENDREDI, ATTEIGNANT 6-9M AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DEPASSANT 25CM ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET NUIT SUIVANTE.

ILE MAURICE : DU FAIT DE LA COMPACITE DU SYSTEME
- LE COUP DE VENT ET LES FORTES PLUIES DEVRAIENT PASSER AU LARGE DE
LA COTE OUEST DE L'ILE, ENTRE JEUDI ET VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 270019
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 27/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE) 961 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 55.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 12 UTC:
19.1 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 00 UTC:
20.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 261837
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GARANCE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 54.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
TO 210 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 0 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 06 UTC:
19.0 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 18 UTC:
19.9 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.0S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.9S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.5S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.9S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.7S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 33.0S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 33.4S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 54.3E.
26FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
187 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z AND 271500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261250
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/10/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 54.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/27 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/02/27 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/02/28 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/03/01 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 35

72H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY, WHILE
RETAINING THEIR CURVATURE. THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE HAS CLEARLY
IMPROVED, HOWEVER, AS SEEN IN THE GCOM-W1-AMSR2 DATA FROM 0983Z, WITH
A SOLID CONVECTIVE RING AT BOTH 85GHZ AND 37GHZ, SHOWING A
SYMMETRIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE INTENSIFICATION IN
PROGRESS. IN ADDITION, A SKETCH OF AN EYE APPEARED FROM 0845Z TO
ANALYSIS TIME ON THE HRV IMAGE SUPERIMPOSED ON THE COLORADO RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FMEE
ESTIMATE, AND THE OBJECTIVE AMERICAN DATA, THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
60KT.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOW MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR
IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. FROM TOMORROW THURSDAY, GARANCE IS SET TO
PLUNGE SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTING FLOW
CHANNELLED BY A RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST. THE LATEST RUNS
REMAIN SCATTERED AND SUGGEST A LATER PASSAGE NEAR REUNION THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, GARANCE SHOULD PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT MASCARENES, MOVING SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST THEN
SOUTH-EAST, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
THE BASIN. ON THE MARGIN OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, GARANCE SHOULD
BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITING FROM FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ENABLING IT TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, AS IT APPROACHES REUNION, A SHEAR
COULD SET IN AGAIN BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF REUNION, WHICH COULD
WEAKEN THE METEOR. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT OPTION IS STILL FOR THE UPPER
END OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS SHEAR IS SET TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, INITIATING A
WEAKENING AND A MORE ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM, WITH WEAKER WINDS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH, IT COULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION ISLAND:
- STORM FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
- VERY HEAVY RAIN, BECOMING TORRENTIAL OVER THE RELIEF DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING,
REACHING 6-9M AS THE STORM PASSES CLOSE BY.
- STORM SURGE OF 25CM BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT.

MAURITIUS: DUE TO THE COMPACTNESS OF THE SYSTEM
- THE GALE FORCE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD PASS OFF THE WEST COAST
OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261250
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/10/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 54.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2025 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 27/02/2025 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 28/02/2025 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 01/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 35

72H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT
LEGEREMENT REFROIDIS, TOUT EN GARDANT DE LA COURBURE. LA STRUCTURE
INTERNE S'EST TOUTEFOIS NETTEMENT AMELIOREE AU VU DE LA DONNA E
GCOM-W1-AMSR2 DE 0983Z, AVEC UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF SOLIDE AUSSI BIEN EN
85GHZ QU'EN 37GHZ, MONTRANT UNE SYMETRISATION DU SYSTEME ET DONC UNE
INTENSIFICATION EN COURS. DE PLUS, UNE ESQUISSE D'OEIL EST APPARUE A
PARTIR DE 0845Z JUSQU'A L'HEURE DU RESEAU SUR L'IMAGE VISIBLE HRV
SUPPERPOSEE AUX DONNEES DE REFLECTIVITE RADAR DU COLORADO. AU VU DE
CETTE ANALYSE, DE L'ESTIMATION SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FMEE, ET DES DONNEES
OBJECTIVES AMERICAINES, L'INTENSITE DE GARANCE A ETE RELEVEE A 60KT.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT MAINTENANT SE DEPLACER AU SUD-EST DANS CES
PROCHAINES HEURES EN BORDURE OUEST D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN JEUDI, GARANCE DEVRAIT
PLONGER VERS LE SUD SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD
CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT A L'EST. IL POURRAIT AINSI
CIRCULER AU NORD DE LA REUNION JEUDI SOIR OU DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A
VENDREDI.LES DERNIERS RUNS RESTENT DISPERSES ET SUGGERENT UN PASSAGE
PRES DE LA REUNION PLUS TARDIF QUE DANS LES PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS.
EN FIN DE SEMAINE, GARANCE DEVRAIT PASSER AU SUD DES GRANDES
MASCAREIGNES, TOUT EN S'ORIENTANT AU SUD-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-EST, SOUS
L'EFFET D'UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'OUEST DU BASSIN. EN MARGE
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, GARANCE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION MARQUEE DU SYSTEME
JUSQU'A JEUDI. EN REVANCHE, A L'APPROCHE DE LA REUNION, UN
CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT SE METTRE A NOUVEAU EN PLACE AVANT LE PASSAGE
AU NORD DE LA REUNION, CE QUI POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR LE METEORE. L'OPTION
ACTUELLE TABLE NEANMOINS TOUJOURS POUR LE HAUT DU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
AUGMENTER DE NOUVEAU EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI AMORCANT UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET UN SYSTEME PLUS ASYMETRIQUE AVEC UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DES VENTS DU COTE OUEST DU SYSTEME. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LE SUD, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILE DE LA REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET LA NUIT SUIVANTE. VENTS
DE FORCE OURAGAN TRES PROBABLES DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI.
- PLUIES TRES FORTES, DEVENANT DILUVIENNES SUR LE RELIEF EN JOURNEE
DE JEUDI ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR ET JUSQU'EN MATINEE DE
VENDREDI, ATTEIGNANT 6-9M AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DEPASSANT 25CM ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET NUIT SUIVANTE.

ILE MAURICE : DU FAIT DE LA COMPACITE DU SYSTEME
- LE COUP DE VENT ET LES FORTES PLUIES DEVRAIENT PASSER AU LARGE DE
LA COTE OUEST DE L'ILE, ENTRE JEUDI ET VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 261213
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 54.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 00 UTC:
18.4 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 12 UTC:
19.4 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260656
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 53.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/26 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0

24H: 2025/02/27 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/02/27 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/02 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED INTENSE, BUT THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLES
HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED. THE SYSTEM THEREFORE CURRENTLY PRESENTS A
CDO PATTERN. THE 0552Z ASCAT-B SHOWS A DEBIASED INTENSITY OF AROUND
50KT, IN LINE WITH DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE FMEE ANALYSIS.
THIS DATA ALSO SHOWS AN INTENSIFICATION IN PROGRESS, WITH A FINE
SYMMETRIZATION OF STRONG WINDS AROUND THE CENTER.

THE SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS
BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERE CUT-OFF SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. FROM TOMORROW (THURSDAY), GARANCE SHOULD
PLUNGE SOUTH-WESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTING FLOW CHANNELLED BY A RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE
EAST. IT COULD THUS CIRCULATE VERY CLOSE TO REUNION ON THURSDAY
EVENING OR DURING THE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SUGGEST A LATER PASSAGE CLOSE TO
REUNION THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE MOVEMENT
SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. DISPERSION
ALONG THE TRAJECTORY REMAINS STRONG, FOLLOWING POSSIBLE INTERACTION
WITH THE HONDE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, THEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH COAST IN THE MONSOON FLOW THRUST, STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SOUTHERLY
SHEAR IS SET TO WEAKEN OCCASIONALLY DURING THE DAY, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY FURTHER UNTIL THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE
SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF REUNION, WHICH
COULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE METEOR. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT OPTION IS
STILL FOR THE UPPER END OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS SHEAR IS SET TO INCREASE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY, INITIATING A WEAKENING AND MORE ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM, WITH
WEAKER WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, IT COULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION ISLAND:
- STORM FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING AND FOLLOWING
NIGHT.
- VERY HEAVY RAIN, BECOMING TORRENTIAL OVER THE RELIEF DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
- WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4M FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY, REACHING
6-8M AT THE TIME OF CLOSEST PASSAGE.
- STORM SURGE OF MORE THAN 50CM ON THURSDAY EVENING OR FOLLOWING
NIGHT.

MAURITIUS:
- LOW PROBABILITY OF GALES FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY.
- HEAVY LOCAL RAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FOLLOWING NIGHT (100MM IN
24HRS).
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260656
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/10/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 53.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2025 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 0

24H: 27/02/2025 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 27/02/2025 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 45

48H: 28/02/2025 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 0

60H: 28/02/2025 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 01/03/2025 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2025 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 45

120H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE INTENSE,
MAIS LES BANDES CONVECTIVES PRESENTENT DANS LES DEMI-CERLCES NORD ET
EST SE SONT DISSIPEES PROGRESSIVEMENT. LE SYSTEME PRESENTE DONC
ACTUELLEMENT UNE CONFIGURATION A CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. LA PASSE
ASCAT-B DE 0552Z PRESENTE UNE INTENSITE DEBIAISEE DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT,
EN COHERANCE AVEC L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE FMEE DE DVORAK. CETTE DONNEE
MONTRE EGALEMENT UNE INTENSIFICATION EN COURS AVEC UNE BELLE
SYMETRISATION DES VENTS FORTS AUTOUR DU CENTRE.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER VERS L'EST-SUD-EST DANS LES PROCHAINES
18H ENTRE UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES
ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN JEUDI, GARANCE
DEVRAIT PLONGER VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR DE NORD CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT A L'EST. IL
POURRAIT AINSI CIRCULER TRES PRES DE LA REUNION JEUDI SOIR OU DANS LA
NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI. LES DERNIERS RUNS DE MODELES RESTENT ASSEZ
DISPERSES ET SUGGERENT UN PASSAGE PRES DE LA REUNION PLUS TARDIF QUE
DANS LES PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, LE MOUVEMENT
DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD PUIS SUD-EST EN DIRECTION DES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LA
DISPERSION SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE BIEN PRESENTE, SUIVANT
L'INTERACTION EVENTUELLE AVEC LE SYSTEME HONDE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR
PUIS SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DE BASSES COUCHES COTE NORD DANS LA POUSSEE DE FLUX DE MOUSSON, D'UN
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD DEVRAIT FAIBLIR PONCTUELLEMENT EN
JOURNEE, PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE DU SYSTEME
JUSQU'A JEUDI. EN REVANCHE, LE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT AUGMENTER A
NOUVEAU AVANT LE PASSAGE AU NORD DE LA REUNION, CE QUI POURRAIT
LEGEREMENT AFFAIBLIR LE METEORE. L'OPTION ACTUELLE TABLE NEANMOINS
TOUJOURS POUR LE HAUT DU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT AUGMENTER DE NOUVEAU EN
JOURNEE DE VENDREDI AMORCANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET UN SYSTEME PLUS
ASYMETRIQUE AVEC UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DES VENTS DU COTE OUEST DU
SYSTEME. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LE SUD, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN
CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILE DE LA REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE ENTRE JEUDI APRES-MIDI ET LA NUIT SUIVANTE.
VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLES JEUDI SOIR ET NUIT SUIVANTE.
- PLUIES TRES FORTES, DEVENANT DILUVIENNES SUR LE RELIEF EN JOURNEE
DE JEUDI ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI MATIN ET JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI, ATTEIGNANT 6-8M AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DEPASSANT 50CM JEUDI SOIR OU NUIT SUIVANTE.

ILE MAURICE :
- FAIBLE PROBABILITE DE COUP DE VENT JEUDI.
- FORTES PLUIES LOCALES POSSIBLES JEUDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE (100 MM EN
24H).
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI MATIN ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI
MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 260621
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 53.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 230 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 18 UTC:
18.1 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 06 UTC:
18.9 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260059
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 53.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/26 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/27 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/02/27 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/02/28 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/03/01 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED VERY INTENSE AND HAS
ORGANIZED INTO A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH A 0.8 TO 1.0 WRAP, LEAVING
THE CENTER EMBEDDED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN A
CURVED BAND PATTERN YIELDS A DT OF 3.5, IN AGREEMENT WITH MET AND PT.
A 2140Z GCOM-W AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM'S CENTER
HAS MOVED FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED, WITH VERY STRONG CONVECTION IN
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND A COMPACT INNER CORE. FOLLOWING THE
1756Z ASCAT DATA WHICH SUGGEST WINDS ALREADY REACHING ALMOST 45 KT AT
18Z IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND FOLLOWING THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CLOUD CONFIGURATION, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AT 00Z IS ESTIMATED AT 50
KT, WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS PROBABLY MAINLY PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24-36H,
STEERED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF SOUTH
OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, IT SHOULD START TO
TURN SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERLY
STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO THE
EAST. IT SHOULD THUS TRACK VERY NEAR REUNION ISLAND ON THURSDAY
EVENING OR DURING THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. RECENT NWP OUTPUT REMAINS
QUITE DISPERSED AND SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LATER IMPACT ON REUNION
ISLAND THAN ON PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE MOVEMENT
SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES, ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. DISPERSION ABOUT THE
TRACK FORECAST INCREASES FURTHER THEN, DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH SYSTEM HONDE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE MONSOON FLOW, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY, ALLOWING A CLEARER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE PASSAGE CLOSE
TO REUNION ISLAND, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST AT TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE OR POSSIBLY NEAR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. FROM
FRIDAY, WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN, WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE
SYSTEM WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARDS, THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS, AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION ISLAND :
- STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD BECOME TORRENTIAL OVER THE
HIGHLANDS ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY, TEMPORARILY
REACHING UP TO 6-10M.
- STORM SURGE EXCEEDING 50CM ON THURSDAY EVENING OR FOLLOWING NIGHT.

MAURITIUS:
- LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY.
- LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FOLLOWING NIGHT (100 MM
IN 24H).
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260059
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/10/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 53.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2025 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 45

24H: 27/02/2025 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 35 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

36H: 27/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 28/02/2025 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 01/03/2025 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 45

120H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE TRES
INTENSE ET S'EST ORGANISEE EN BANDE INCURVEE A FORT ENROULEMENT,
LAISSANT LE CENTRE SOUS LA CONVECTION. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN BANDE
INCURVEE DONNE UN DT A 3.5, EN ACCORD AVEC LE MET ET LE PT. UNE PASSE
MICRO-ONDES GCOM-W AMSR2 A 2140Z MONTRE QUE LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME EST
REMONTE PLUS AU NORD QUE PREVU, AVEC UNE TRES FORTE CONVECTION DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, AINSI QU'UN COEUR INTERNE COMPACT. DANS LE
PROLONGEMENT DES DONNEES ASCAT DE 1756Z QUI SUGGERAIENT LA PRESENCE
DE VENTS ATTEIGNANT DEJA PRES DE 45 KT A 18Z DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST,
ET SUITE A L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE, L'INTENSITE
DU SYSTEME A 00Z EST ESTIMEE A 50 KT, AVEC DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE
PROBABLEMENT SURTOUT PRESENTS SUR LA PARTIE EST DU COEUR CONVECTIF.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER VERS L'EST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24-36H
ENTRE UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ET
UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR IL DEVRAIT
ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN
FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT A
L'EST. IL POURRAIT AINSI CIRCULER TRES PRES DE LA REUNION JEUDI SOIR
OU DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI. LES DERNIERS RUNS DE MODELES
RESTENT ASSEZ DISPERSES ET SUGGERENT UN PASSAGE PRES DE LA REUNION
PLUS TARDIF QUE DANS LES PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD A SUD-EST EN
DIRECTION DES LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. LA DISPERSION SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE ENCORE, SUIVANT
L'INTERACTION EVENTUELLE AVEC LE SYSTEME HONDE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR
PUIS DE L'INFLUENCE DU TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DE BASSES COUCHES COTE NORD DANS LA POUSSEE DE FLUX DE MOUSSON, D'UN
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD DEVRAIT CONTINUER A FAIBLIR D'ICI DEMAIN,
PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE DU SYSTEME AVANT LE
PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE LA REUNION QUI EST PREVU DANS LE HAUT DU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT AUGMENTER DE NOUVEAU, AMORCANT UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET UN SYSTEME PLUS ASYMETRIQUE AVEC UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DES VENTS DU COTE OUEST DU SYSTEME. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS LE SUD, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILE DE LA REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE ENTRE JEUDI APRES-MIDI ET LA NUIT SUIVANTE.
VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLES JEUDI SOIR ET NUIT SUIVANTE.
- PLUIES TRES FORTES, DEVENANT DILUVIENNES SUR LE RELIEF EN JOURNEE
DE JEUDI ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI MATIN ET JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI, ATTEIGNANT 6-10M AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DEPASSANT 50CM JEUDI SOIR OU NUIT SUIVANTE.

ILE MAURICE :
- FAIBLE PROBABILITE DE COUP DE VENT JEUDI.
- FORTES PLUIES LOCALES POSSIBLES JEUDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE (100 MM EN
24H).
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI MATIN ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI
MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.9S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.4S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.3S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.8S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.5S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 30.5S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 33.4S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 53.2E.
26FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
212 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z AND 270300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 260024
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 53.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/10/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 52.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 39 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/26 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/02/26 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/02/27 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/02/27 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
GARANCE HAS INTENSIFIED, WITH A WIDENING OF THE COLD CLOUD-TOPS AREA
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SYSTEM'S CENTER HAS MOVED BACK
UNDER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS, RESUMING A SLIGHTLY
FASTER MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD
CONFIGURATION IS ALSO VISIBLE ON VARIOUS SUCCESSIVE SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGES (F18 AT 1238Z, F17 AT 1438Z, F16 AT 1518Z). IN THE ABSENCE OF
MORE PRECISE OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 40 KT, IN
AGREEMENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AT T3.0, BUT IT MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
INDEED, THE 1756Z ASCAT-C PASS, AVAILABLE A LITTLE LATE, SHOWS WINDS
OF 40-45 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH A CENTER A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH THAN ESTIMATED. THE BEST-TRACK WILL THEREFORE BE
REVISED AFTERHAND.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24-36H,
STEERED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF SOUTH
OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, IT SHOULD START TO
TURN SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST. IT
SHOULD THUS TRACK VERY NEAR REUNION ISLAND ON THURSDAY OR DURING THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. VARIOUS DETERMINIST AND ENSEMBLIST MODELS AGREE ON
THIS IDEA. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, ON THE EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. DURING EVACUATION TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY
LATITUDES, DISPERSION IS GREATER, DEPENDING ON THE GREATER OR LESSER
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE MONSOON FLOW, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE CURRENT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY THURSDAY, ALLOWING A CLEARER INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO THE SISTER ISLANDS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE AT LEAST AT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE (INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT). OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS, THE
SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT ON THE EDGE
OF A TROUGH.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION ISLAND :
- STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD BECOME TORRENTIAL OVER THE
HIGHLANDS ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY, TEMPORARILY
REACHING UP TO 6-9M.

MAURITIUS:
- LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY.
- LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (100 MM / 24H).
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251841
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/10/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 52.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 39 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2025 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 26/02/2025 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 27/02/2025 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 27/02/2025 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 28/02/2025 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 28/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/03/2025 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 02/03/2025 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE GARANCE S'EST INTENSIFIEE, AVEC UN ELARGISSEMENT DE LA ZONE
A SOMMETS FROIDS ET UNE FORTE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE. LE CENTRE DU
SYSTEME S'EST REPLACE SOUS LA PARTIE SUD DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE, EN
REPRENANT UN MOUVEMENT UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE VERS L'EST-NORD-EST.
L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EGALEMENT VISIBLE SUR LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS SUCCESSIVES (F18 A 1238Z, F17 A 1438Z, F16 A
1518Z). EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES OBJECTIVES PLUS PRECISE, L'INTENSITE
EST AUGMENTEE A 40 KT, EN ACCORD AVEC UN ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE A
T3.0, MAIS IL EST POSSIBLE QU'ELLE SOIT UN PEU PLUS FORTE.
EN EFFET, LA PASSE ASCAT-C DE 1756Z, DISPONIBLE UN PEU TARDIVEMENT,
MONTRE DES VENTS DE 40-45 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, AVEC UN CENTRE
UN PEU PLUS AU NORD QU'ESTIME. LA BEST-TRACK SERA DONC RETOUCHEE A
POSTERIORI.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER VERS L'EST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24-36H
ENTRE UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES ET
UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR IL DEVRAIT
ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE
NORD CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT A L'EST. IL POURRAIT
AINSI CIRCULER TRES PRES DE LA REUNION JEUDI OU DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI
A VENDREDI. LES DIFFERENTS MODELES DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES
S'ACCORDENT SUR CETTE PHILOSOPHIE, MAIS MONTRENT UNE ASSEZ FORTE
DISPERSION SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN
DIRECTION DES LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. LORS DE L'EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD, LA
DISPERSION EST PLUS IMPORTANTE SUIVANT L'INFLUENCE PLUS OU MOINS
GRANDE DU TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DE BASSES COUCHES COTE NORD DANS LA POUSSEE DE FLUX DE MOUSSON, D'UN
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE
CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE SECTEUR SUD DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT FAIBLIR
D'ICI JEUDI, PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE DU SYSTEME
AVANT LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE LA REUNION QUI EST PREVU DANS LE HAUT
DU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL (LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLU). EN COURS DE WEEK-END, EN S'ELOIGNANT
VERS LE SUD, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES
ET DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE EN MARGE D'UN
TALWEG.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILE DE LA REUNION :
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE PROBABLES EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI JUSQU'EN NUIT
SUIVANTE. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLES JEUDI APRES-MIDI ET SOIR.
- PLUIES TRES FORTES, DEVENANT DILUVIENNES SUR LE RELIEF EN JOURNEE
DE JEUDI ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI MATIN ET JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI, ATTEIGNANT 6-9M AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES.

ILE MAURICE :
- FAIBLE PROBABILITE DE COUP DE VENT JEUDI.
- FORTES PLUIES LOCALES POSSIBLES JEUDI (100 MM / 24H).
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI MATIN ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI
MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 251814
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 25/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 52.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 06 UTC:
18.2 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 18 UTC:
18.8 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251417
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 51.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/26 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110

24H: 2025/02/26 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/27 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/02/27 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/02/28 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

72H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 30.3 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL
SHEARED, BUT THE CENTER IS MOVING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO CONVECTION ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REMAINS AT
2.5 AND THE LATEST ASCAT SWATH FROM 0518Z MEASURES WINDS OF 36KT IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE MAXIMUM MEAN WIND INTENSITY IS 35KT,
CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. IT HAS BEEN
NAMED AT 10UTC.

THE SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24-48H UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERE CUT-OFF SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES. FROM WEDNESDAY, IT
SHOULD START TO TURN SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERLY
FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST. ON
THURSDAY, IT SHOULD MOVE FULL SOUTH AND COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE
EAST COAST OF REUNION, OR EVEN OVER REUNION, ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST FORECASTS OF THE VARIOUS DETERMINIST AND ENSEMBLIST MODELS
AGREE ON THIS PHILOSOPHY, WITH GFS KEEPING THE CENTER FURTHEST EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
DURING EVACUATION TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES, DISPERSION IS
GREATER, DEPENDING ON THE GREATER OR LESSER INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SHORT-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MIXED. THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH COAST IN THE MONSOON FLOW, STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, A MODERATE
SOUTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN A SLIGHT PHASE SHIFT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION, MORE OR LESS DELAYING
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THIS EVENING. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY BY MID-WEEK, ALLOWING A CLEARER AND MORE REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO THE SISTER ISLANDS, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARDS, THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS, AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT ON THE EDGE OF A TROUGH.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION ISLAND
- STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- VERY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BECOME TORRENTIAL OVER THE
HIGHLANDS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY (100-150 MM / 24H).
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251417
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/10/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 51.8 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2025 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 110

24H: 26/02/2025 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 27/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 27/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 28/02/2025 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

72H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 30.3 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA FORTE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
MAINTENUE DANS LA PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION. LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EST TOUJOURS CISAILLE MAIS LE CENTRE SE RAPPROCHE DE PLUS EN
PLSU DE LA CONVECTION SUR LES DENIERES IMAGES SATELLITE. L'ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK RESTE A 2.5 ET LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT DE 0518Z
MESURE DES VENTS DE 36KT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. L'INTENSITE DE
VENT MOYEN MAX RETENUE EST DE 35KT CLASSANT LE SYSTEME AU STADE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. CE DERNIER A ETE BAPTISE A 10UTC.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS L'EST DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24-48H SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA POUSSEE DU FLUX DE MOUSSON
EN BASSES COUCHES PUIS DE LA PRESENCE D'UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI IL DEVRAIT
ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE
NORD CANALISE PAR UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT A L'EST. JEUDI IL
ADOPTERAIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLEIN SUD ET POURRAIT CIRCULER TRES PRES
DE LA COTE EST REUNIONAISE, VOIRE MEME SUR LA REUNION, JEUDI
APRES-MIDI. LES DERNIERS RESEAUX DES DIFFERENTS MODELES DETERMINISTES
ET ENSEMBLISTES S'ACCORDENT SUR CETTE PHILOSOPHIE, GFS ETANT CELUI
QUI GARDE LE CENTRE LE PLUS A L'EST. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, LE
MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN DIRECTION DES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LORS
DE L'EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD, LA DISPERSION EST PLUS
IMPORTANTE SUIVANT L'INFLUENCE PLUS OU MOINS GRANDE DU TALWEG
CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES A COURT TERME SONT MIXTES. LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE
D'UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES COTE NORD DANS LA POUSSEE
DE FLUX DE MOUSSON, D'UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET D'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. TOUTEFOIS, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE SECTEUR
SUD DEVRAIT MAINTENIR UN LEGER DEPHASAGE ENTRE LE CENTRE DE SURFACE
ET LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, RETARDANT PLUS OU MOINS L'INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'A CE SOIR. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT BAISSER EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE, PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS NETTE ET REGULIERE
AVANT LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DES ILES SOEURS, QUI EST PREVU A UN
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS
LE SUD, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

ILE DE LA REUNION
- VENT DE FORCE TEMPETE PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI JUSQU'EN NUIT
SUIVANTE. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLE POUR JEUDI APRES-MIDI.
- TRES FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES POUVANT DEVENIR DILUVIENNES SUR LES
RELIEFS EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI MATIN ET JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI.

ILE MAURICE :
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE JEUDI.
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI
(100-150 MM / 24H).
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI
MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251332
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 51.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/26 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110

24H: 2025/02/26 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2025/02/27 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/02/27 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/02/28 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

72H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 30.3 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL
SHEARED, BUT THE CENTER IS MOVING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO CONVECTION ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REMAINS AT
2.5 AND THE LATEST ASCAT SWATH FROM 0518Z MEASURES WINDS OF 36KT IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE MAXIMUM MEAN WIND INTENSITY IS 35KT,
CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. IT HAS BEEN
NAMED AT 10UTC.

THE SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24-48H UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERE CUT-OFF SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES. FROM WEDNESDAY, IT
SHOULD START TO TURN SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERLY
FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST. ON
THURSDAY, IT SHOULD MOVE FULL SOUTH AND COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE
EAST COAST OF REUNION, OR EVEN OVER REUNION, ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST FORECASTS OF THE VARIOUS DETERMINIST AND ENSEMBLIST MODELS
AGREE ON THIS PHILOSOPHY, WITH GFS KEEPING THE CENTER FURTHEST EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
DURING EVACUATION TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES, DISPERSION IS
GREATER, DEPENDING ON THE GREATER OR LESSER INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SHORT-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MIXED. THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH COAST IN THE MONSOON FLOW, STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, A MODERATE
SOUTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN A SLIGHT PHASE SHIFT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION, MORE OR LESS DELAYING
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THIS EVENING. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY BY MID-WEEK, ALLOWING A CLEARER AND MORE REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO THE SISTER ISLANDS, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARDS, THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS, AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT ON THE EDGE OF A TROUGH.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION ISLAND
- STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- VERY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BECOME TORRENTIAL OVER THE
HIGHLANDS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY (100-150 MM / 24H).
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251332
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/10/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (GARANCE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 51.8 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2025 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 110

24H: 26/02/2025 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 27/02/2025 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 27/02/2025 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 28/02/2025 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

72H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 30.3 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA FORTE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
MAINTENUE DANS LA PARTIE NORD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. UNE
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE EN BORDURE SUD-EST DE
CONVECTION PEUT ETRE DEFINIE AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK AUGMENTANT
LEGEREMENT A 2.5. LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT DE 0518Z MESURE DES VENTS
DE 36KT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. CEPENDANT SUR LA DERNIERE
MICRO-ONDES GPM DE 0600Z LE CENTRE N'EST TOUJOURS PAS BIEN NET. LE
SYSTEME 10-20242025 RESTE DONC AU STADE DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE AVEC
UN VENT MOYEN DE 30KT.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT ET GLOBALEMENT VERS L'EST
DANS LES PROCHAINES 24-48H SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA POUSSEE DE FLUX DE
MOUSSON PUIS DE LA PRESENCE D'UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD DES MASCAREIGNES. AU COURS DE CES COURTES ECHEANCES, UNE LEGERE
TENDANCE VERS LE SUD-EST POURRA ETRE NOTABLE, DU FAIT D'UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR MAL DEFINI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI OU JEUDI, IL DEVRAIT FAIRE
UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR DE NORD
CANALISE ENTRE UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCANT A L'EST ET LE SYSTEME
11-20242025 DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA PHILOSOPHIE EST
ASSEZ PROCHE ENTRE LES MODELES ET LES ENSEMBLES CEPENDANT
L'INCERTITUDE AU NIVEAU DE LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD
LAISSE DES IMPACTS DIFFERENTS DU FAIT DE LA PRESENCE DES TERRES
HABITEES. UNE LEGERE ACCELERATION EST D'AILLEURS PREVUE PAR RAPPORT
AUX PREVISION PRECEDENTES, LAISSANT UNE DIFFERENCE DE CHRONOLOGIE DE
PRES DE 3-6H LORS DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES MASCAREIGNES. DE PLUS
LES DERNIERS RESEAUX DES MODELES S'ACCORDENT POUR DECALER LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST ET LA RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION JEUDI. EN
COURS DE WEEK-END, LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER VERS LE
SUD-SUD-EST EN DIRECTION DES LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LORS DE L'EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS
SUD, LA DISPERSION EST PLUS IMPORTANTE SUIVANT L'INFLUENCE PLUS OU
MOINS GRANDE DU TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD ET QUI IMPACTE AUSSI LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME 11-20242025 ACTUELLEMENT SUIVI DANS LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES A COURT TERME SONT MIXTES. LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE
D'UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES COTE NORD DANS LA POUSSEE
DE FLUX DE MOUSSON, D'UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET D'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. TOUTEFOIS, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE SECTEUR
SUD DEVRAIT MAINTENIR UN LEGER DEPHASAGE ENTRE LE CENTRE DE SURFACE
ET LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, RETARDANT PLUS OU MOINS L'INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'A CE SOIR. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT BAISSER EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE, PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS NETTE ET REGULIERE
AVANT LE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DES ILES SOEURS, QUI EST PREVU A UN
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, EN S'ELOIGNANT VERS
LE SUD, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES EN CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT PLUS BAROCLINE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :


ILE DE LA REUNION
- VENT DE FORCE TEMPETE PROBABLE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI JUSQU'EN NUIT
SUIVANTE. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLE POUR JEUDI APRES-MIDI.
- TRES FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES POUVANT DEVENIR DILUVIENNES SUR LES
RELIEFS EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE JEUDI MATIN ET JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI.

ILE MAURICE :
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE JEUDI.
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI
(100-150 MM / 24H).
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI
MATIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 251224 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 25/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 51.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 00 UTC:
18.3 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 12 UTC:
18.6 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=