Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for HONDE-25 in Madagascar from 25 Feb 2025 18:00 UTC to 05 Mar 2025 06:00 UTC

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Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for HONDE-25

in Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

05/03 06:46 WTIO30FMEE050634

05/03 06:46 WTIO31FMEE050634

05/03 06:17 WTIO24FMEE050613

05/03 00:48 WTIO30FMEE050038

05/03 00:48 WTIO31FMEE050038

05/03 00:20 WTIO24FMEE050018

04/03 18:59 WTIO30FMEE041837

04/03 18:59 WTIO31FMEE041837

04/03 18:22 WTIO24FMEE041821

04/03 12:55 WTIO30FMEE041243

04/03 12:55 WTIO31FMEE041243

04/03 12:20 WTIO24FMEE041218

04/03 06:30 WTIO30FMEE040623

04/03 06:30 WTIO31FMEE040623

04/03 06:15 WTIO24FMEE040613

04/03 01:03 WTIO30FMEE040030

04/03 01:03 WTIO31FMEE040030

04/03 00:17 WTIO24FMEE040015

03/03 18:56 WTIO30FMEE031818

03/03 18:56 WTIO31FMEE031818

03/03 18:07 WTIO24FMEE031801

03/03 12:54 WTIO30FMEE031252

03/03 12:54 WTIO31FMEE031252

03/03 12:20 WTIO24FMEE031217

03/03 07:00 WTIO30FMEE030636

03/03 07:00 WTIO31FMEE030636

03/03 06:16 WTIO24FMEE030615CCA

03/03 06:12 WTIO24FMEE030611

03/03 00:15 WTIO30FMEE030010

03/03 00:15 WTIO31FMEE030010

03/03 00:00 WTIO24FMEE030000

02/03 18:07 WTIO30FMEE021804

02/03 18:07 WTIO31FMEE021804

02/03 18:00 WTIO24FMEE021759

02/03 13:14 WTIO30FMEE021313CCA

02/03 13:14 WTIO31FMEE021313CCA

02/03 13:09 WTIO30FMEE021238

02/03 13:09 WTIO31FMEE021238

02/03 12:24 WTIO24FMEE021224

02/03 08:26 WTIO30FMEE020739

02/03 08:26 WTIO31FMEE020739

02/03 06:36 WTIO24FMEE020634

02/03 00:20 WTIO24FMEE020018

01/03 20:13 WTXS33PGTW012100

01/03 18:15 WTIO24FMEE011814

01/03 12:55 WTIO30FMEE011253

01/03 12:55 WTIO31FMEE011253

01/03 12:03 WTIO24FMEE011201

01/03 08:31 WTXS33PGTW010900

01/03 07:30 WTIO30FMEE010728

01/03 07:30 WTIO31FMEE010728

01/03 06:11 WTIO24FMEE010609

01/03 01:17 WTIO30FMEE010110

01/03 01:17 WTIO31FMEE010110

01/03 00:46 WTIO24FMEE010046CCA

01/03 00:31 WTIO24FMEE010030

28/02 21:05 WTXS33PGTW282100

28/02 19:57 WTIO30FMEE281917

28/02 19:57 WTIO31FMEE281917

28/02 18:16 WTIO24FMEE281814

28/02 12:37 WTIO24FMEE281230

28/02 08:55 WTXS33PGTW280900

28/02 06:24 WTIO24FMEE280620

28/02 01:45 WTIO30FMEE280144

28/02 01:45 WTIO31FMEE280144

28/02 00:24 WTIO24FMEE280020

27/02 19:37 WTIO30FMEE271934

27/02 19:37 WTIO31FMEE271934

27/02 18:26 WTIO24FMEE271823

27/02 13:22 WTIO30FMEE271321

27/02 13:22 WTIO31FMEE271321

27/02 12:30 WTIO24FMEE271229

27/02 08:16 WTXS33PGTW270900

27/02 08:07 WTIO30FMEE270730

27/02 08:07 WTIO31FMEE270730

27/02 06:28 WTIO24FMEE270627

27/02 00:22 WTIO24FMEE270021

26/02 21:10 WTXS33PGTW262100

26/02 19:51 WTIO30FMEE261936

26/02 19:51 WTIO31FMEE261936

26/02 18:40 WTIO24FMEE261839

26/02 14:03 WTIO30FMEE261336

26/02 14:03 WTIO31FMEE261336

26/02 12:15 WTIO24FMEE261212

26/02 07:55 WTIO30FMEE260754

26/02 07:55 WTIO31FMEE260754

26/02 06:26 WTIO24FMEE260624

26/02 02:16 WTIO30FMEE260158

26/02 02:16 WTIO31FMEE260158

26/02 00:27 WTIO24FMEE260026

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050634
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/11/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.5 S / 49.0 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 160 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/05 18 UTC: 35.6 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 510 SW: 285 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 140

24H: 2025/03/06 06 UTC: 38.4 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 465 SW: 205 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 140

36H: 2025/03/06 18 UTC: 40.0 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100

48H: 2025/03/07 06 UTC: 41.5 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 215 SW: 100 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE HONDE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND A WELL-EXPOSED CENTER. ON THE 0515Z
ASCAT PASS, A DISSYMMETRICAL PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE, WITH
GALE-FORCE WINDS ABSENT FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. MAX WINDS REMAIN
AT 50KT. HONDE REMAINS A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 50KT WINDS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SWELLING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST CURRENTLY
FAVORS A GRADUAL ACCELERATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. FROM
TOMORROW ONWARDS, HONDE IS SET TO VEER SOUTH-EASTWARDS, CAUGHT UP BY
THE GUIDING FLOWS OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE METEOR SOUTH OF THE 40S BY THE END OF THE
DAY TOMORROW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST COULD TEMPORARILY
MAINTAIN STORM-FORCE WINDS UNTIL TOMORROW. WITH THE SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN OCEAN POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S, HONDE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HONDE SHOULD BECOME AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION FROM TOMORROW EVENING.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER IMPACTS ANY INHABITED TERRITORY.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050634
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/11/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 32.5 S / 49.0 E
(TRENTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 160 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2025 18 UTC: 35.6 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 510 SO: 285 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 140

24H: 06/03/2025 06 UTC: 38.4 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 465 SO: 205 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SO: 175 NO: 140

36H: 06/03/2025 18 UTC: 40.0 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 100

48H: 07/03/2025 06 UTC: 41.5 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 215 SO: 100 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME HONDE A CONTINUE A PERDRE
SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AVEC UNE CONVECTION FAIBLISSANTE QUI
CONTINUE DE S'ELOIGNER DU CENTRE ET UN CENTRE BIEN EXPOSE. SUR LA
PASSE ASCAT DE 0515Z ON COMMENCE A DISTINGUER UNE DISSYMETRISATION
AVEC DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT ABSENTS DU QUADRANT NORD-OUEST.
LES VENTS MAX SE MAINTIENNENT A 50KT. HONDE EST DONC MAINTENU AU
STADE DE DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 50KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'EST
FAVORISE ACTUELLEMENT UNE ACCELERATION PROGRESSIVE DU MOUVEMENT VERS
LE SUD. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, HONDE DEVRAIT VIRER EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-EST, RATTRAPE PAR LES FLUX DIRECTEURS GUIDES PAR UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE ELOIGNE
AINSI LE METEORE AU SUD DU 40S DEMAIN EN FIN DE JOURNEE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE SONT PLUS
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION TROPICALE DU SYSTEME. TOUTEFOIS
L'INTERACTION BAROCLINE AVEC LE THALWEG A L'OUEST POURRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT FAVORISER LE MAINTIEN DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE
JUSQU'A DEMAIN. AVEC LA BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD
DE 30S, HONDE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. HONDE DEVRAIT DEVENIR UNE DEPRESSION
EXTRA-TROPICALE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR.

CE PHENOMENE NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 050613
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (HONDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.5 S / 49.0 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 85
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 205 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
35.6 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 310 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/06 AT 06 UTC:
38.4 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE
HIGHT SEAS FOR METAREA VII, ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
OF SOUTH-AFRICA (FQZA31 FAPR) THEN WITH THE GMDSS MARINE WARNINGS
FQIO20 FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06Z AND 18Z BY METEO FRANCE
REUNION.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/11/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.8 S / 49.0 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SW: 435 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/05 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 565 SW: 325 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/06 00 UTC: 37.3 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 530 SW: 315 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 155

36H: 2025/03/06 12 UTC: 39.5 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 120

48H: 2025/03/07 00 UTC: 40.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 95

60H: 2025/03/07 12 UTC: 42.4 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVED FROM A SHEARED
STRUCTURE TO A FULLY EXPOSED ELONGATED CIRCULATION, AS CONFIRMED BY
THE 2151Z AMSR2 PASS. DEEP SHEAR IS EXCEEDING 30KT ACCORDING TO
CIMSS. THE SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE BEEN RECLASSIFIED AS A POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE 1755Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH ARRIVED LATE, CONFIRMED THE
PRESENCE OF MAXIMUM WINDS CLOSE TO 50-55KT.

THE SWELLING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST CURRENTLY FAVOURS A GRADUAL
ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, HONDE
IS SET TO VEER SOUTH-EASTWARDS, CAUGHT UP BY THE STEERING FLOW DRIVEN
BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH, THUS MOVING THE
METEOR SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL ON THURSDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER CONDUCIVE TO A TROPICAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WEST COULD TEMPORARILY FAVOR A SLIGHT DEEPENING, OR AT
LEAST THE PERSISTENCE OF STORM-FORCE WINDS UP TO THURSDAY. WITH THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF 30S, HONDE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER IMPACTS ANY INHABITED TERRITORY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050038
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/11/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 31.8 S / 49.0 E
(TRENTE UN DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SO: 435 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 360 SO: 270 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2025 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 565 SO: 325 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 0

24H: 06/03/2025 00 UTC: 37.3 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 530 SO: 315 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 155

36H: 06/03/2025 12 UTC: 39.5 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 120

48H: 07/03/2025 00 UTC: 40.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 95

60H: 07/03/2025 12 UTC: 42.4 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HONDE A
EVOLUE D'UN ASPECT CISAILLEE VERS UNE CIRCULATION ALLONGEE TOTALEMENT
EXPOSEE COMME CONFIRME PAR LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 2151Z. LE CISAILLEMENT
EST ANALYSE A PLUS DE 30KT PAR LE CIMSS LE SYSTEME A DONC ETE
RECLASSE EN DEPRESSION POST TROPICALE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1755Z
ARRIVEE TARDIVEMENT A CONFIRME LA PRESENCE DE VENTS MAXIMAUX PROCHE
DE 50-55KT.

LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'EST FAVORISE ACTUELLEMENT UNE
ACCELERATION PROGRESSIVE DU MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE JEUDI,
HONDE DEVRAIT VIRER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST, RATTRAPE PAR LES FLUX
DIRECTEURS GUIDES PAR UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PASSANT PLUS
AU SUD, ELOIGNANT AINSI LE METEORE AU SUD DU 40E PARALLELE JEUDI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE SONT PLUS FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION TROPICALE DU SYSTEME. TOUTEFOIS L'INTERACTION
BAROCLINE AVEC LE THALWEG A L'OUEST POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT FAVORISER
UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION OU EN TOUT CAS LE MAINTIEN DE VENTS DE
FORCE TEMPETE JUSQU'A JEUDI. AVEC LA BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 30S, HONDE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A PERDRE
PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES

CE PHENOMENE NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 050018
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (HONDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.8 S / 49.0 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 195 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 235 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/05 AT 12 UTC:
34.4 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 275 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/06 AT 00 UTC:
37.3 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 275 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.7 S / 49.2 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 620 SW: 535 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SW: 315 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/05 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 585 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/05 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 575 SW: 350 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2025/03/06 06 UTC: 38.4 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 520 SW: 315 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 0 NW: 140

48H: 2025/03/06 18 UTC: 40.3 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 110

60H: 2025/03/07 06 UTC: 41.7 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 335 SW: 0 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED ITS TREND
TOWARDS A SHEARED STRUCTURE WITH A CENTER ON THE EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES, NOTABLY
THE 1403Z GMI PASS. THE DEEP SHEAR HAS INDEED STRENGTHENED AND
EXCEEDS 20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS. WIND ESTIMATES FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S
AMSR2 PASS SEEM TO CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS. THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50KT.

THE SWELLING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST CURRENTLY FAVOURS A GRADUAL
ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, HONDE
IS SET TO VEER SOUTH-EASTWARDS, CAUGHT UP BY THE STEERING FLOW DRIVEN
BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH, THUS MOVING THE
METEOR SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL ON THURSDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER CONDUCIVE TO A TROPICAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WEST COULD TEMPORARILY FAVOR A SLIGHT DEEPENING, OR AT
LEAST THE PERSISTENCE OF STORM-FORCE WINDS. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS,
WITH THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF 30S,
HONDE SHOULD WEAKEN, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER IMPACTS ANY INHABITED TERRITORY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.7 S / 49.2 E
(TRENTE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 620 SO: 535 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SO: 315 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2025 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 585 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 05/03/2025 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 575 SO: 350 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 06/03/2025 06 UTC: 38.4 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 520 SO: 315 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 0 NO: 140

48H: 06/03/2025 18 UTC: 40.3 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 270 SO: 0 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 110

60H: 07/03/2025 06 UTC: 41.7 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 335 SO: 0 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HONDE A
CONTINUE D'EVOLUER VERS UN ASPECT CISAILLE AVEC UN CENTRE EN MARGE DE
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. CELA EST CONFIRMEE PAR LES DENIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES NOTAMMENT LA PASSE GMI DE 1403Z. LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND
S'EST EN EFFET RENFORCE ET IL DEPASSE LES 20KT D'APRES LE CIMSS. LES
ESTIMATIONS DE VENT DE LA PASSE AMSR2 DE CETTE APRES-MIDI SEMBLENT
CONFIRMER LA PRESENCE DE VENT DE FORCE TEMPETE. L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 50KT.

LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'EST FAVORISE ACTUELLEMENT UNE
ACCELERATION PROGRESSIVE DU MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE JEUDI,
HONDE DEVRAIT VIRER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST, RATTRAPE PAR LES FLUX
DIRECTEURS GUIDES PAR UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PASSANT PLUS
AU SUD, ELOIGNANT AINSI LE METEORE AU SUD DU 40E PARALLELE JEUDI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE SONT PLUS FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION TROPICALE DU SYSTEME. TOUTEFOIS L'INTERACTION
BAROCLINE AVEC LE THALWEG A L'OUEST POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT FAVORISER
UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION OU EN TOUT CAS LE MAINTIEN DE VENTS DE
FORCE TEMPETE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, AVEC LA BAISSE SENSIBLE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 30S, HONDE DEVRAIT ALORS FAIBLIR PLUS
FRANCHEMENT EN PERDANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES

CE PHENOMENE NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 041821
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 04/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.7 S / 49.2 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CERLCE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 205 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 185 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 335 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
33.2 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
35.8 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 310 NM SE: 310 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.0 S / 49.2 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 750 SW: 715 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 555 SW: 240 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 70 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/05 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 630 SW: 425 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 35

24H: 2025/03/05 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 620 SW: 400 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 270 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/06 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 575 SW: 370 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 150

48H: 2025/03/06 12 UTC: 39.7 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SW: 175 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 120

60H: 2025/03/07 00 UTC: 41.4 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 85 NW: 140

72H: 2025/03/07 12 UTC: 43.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN MORE LIKE A SHEAR
PATTERN. THE LATEST CIMSS DATA ALSO POINT TO A MODERATE
WEST-NORTH-WEST STRESS ON A SYSTEM THAT TENDS TO DIP TO THE
SOUTH-EAST, ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY. THUS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY NOT
HAVE SUCH A NEUTRAL IMPACT ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE METEOR, ESPECIALLY
IN VIEW OF THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS AT 1051Z, WHICH IS NOW SHOWING
INTERNAL WALL WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN HALF-CIRCLE AT 37 AND 85 GHZ.
THE ASCAT-C PASS AT 0625Z, AVAILABLE AFTER THE NETWORK, NOT ONLY
ENABLED US TO PINPOINT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH PRECISION, BUT ALSO
TO RESIZE THE WIND EXTENSIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE PHENOMENON. THE
MAXIMUM MEAN WINDS SUGGESTED BY THE ASCAT SHOWED AN INTENSITY CLOSE
TO 50KT. CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY OF THE 06Z POINT WAS BESTRACK
ADJUSTED.

THE SWELLING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST CURRENTLY FAVOURS A GRADUAL
ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, HONDE
IS SET TO VEER SOUTH-EASTWARDS, CAUGHT UP BY THE STEERING FLOWS
GUIDED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH, THUS MOVING
THE METEOR SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL ON THURSDAY.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE STILL RELATIVELY
WARM, BENEFITING FROM MODERATE RELATIVE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE COMING EVENING AND NIGHT.
HOWEVER, FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SET TO
DETERIORATE, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A MARKED DROP IN OHC SOUTH
OF 30S. HONDE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, GRADUALLY LOSING
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN ITS STRUCTURE, THROUGH
BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER IMPACTS ANY INHABITED TERRITORY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041243
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.0 S / 49.2 E
(TRENTE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 750 SO: 715 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 555 SO: 240 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 70 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2025 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 630 SO: 425 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 35

24H: 05/03/2025 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 620 SO: 400 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SO: 270 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 55

36H: 06/03/2025 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 575 SO: 370 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 240 NO: 150

48H: 06/03/2025 12 UTC: 39.7 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SO: 175 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 120

60H: 07/03/2025 00 UTC: 41.4 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 325 SO: 185 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 85 NO: 140

72H: 07/03/2025 12 UTC: 43.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
S'APPARENTE DAVANTAGE UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE. LES DERNIERES
DONNEES DU CIMSS POINTENT D'AILLEURS UNE CONTRAINTE
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST MODEREE SUR UN SYSTEME QUI A TENDANCE A PLONGER AU
SECTEUR SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT. AINSI LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT N'A SANS DOUTE PAS UNE INCIDENCE SI NEUTRE QUE CELA
SUR LA STRUCTURE DU METEORE, SURTOUT AU VU DE LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE
AMSR2 DE 1051Z, QUI PRESENTE DESORMAIS UNE FAIBLESSE DU MUR INTERNE
DANS LE DEMI-CERLCE OUEST EN 37 ET 85 GHZ. LA PASSE ASCAT-C DE 0625Z,
DISPONIBLE APRES LE RESEAU A PERMIS NON SEULEMENT DE POINTER AVEC
PRECISION LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES, MAIS AUSSI DE REDIMENSIONNER
LES EXTENSIONS DE VENTS ET L'INTENSITA DU PHENOMENE. LES VENTS
MOYENS MAXIMAUX SUGGERES PAR L'ASCAT ONT MONTRE UNE INTENSITE PROCHE
DE 50KT. PAR CONSEQUENT L'INTENSITE DU POINT DE 06Z A ETE CORRIGEE EN
BESTRACK.

LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'EST FAVORISE ACTUELLEMENT UNE
ACCELERATION PROGRESSIVE DU MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE JEUDI,
HONDE DEVRAIT VIRER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST, RATTRAPE PAR LES FLUX
DIRECTEURS GUIDES PAR UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PASSANT PLUS
AU SUD, ELOIGNANT AINSI LE METEORE AU SUD DU 40E PARALLELE JEUDI.

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT SUR DES EAUX ENCORE RELATIVEMENT
CHAUDES ET BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL RELATIF MODERE ET
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST ET SUD, UNE
LEGERE INTENSIFICATION EST PROBABLE AU COURS DE LA SOIREE ET NUIT
PROCHAINE. TOUTEFOIS, A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT SE DEGRADER AVEC UNE AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT ET UNE BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE
30S. HONDE DEVRAIT ALORS FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT EN PERDANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AU-DELA DES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, EN MARGE EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. NEANMOINS LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENCORE GENERER DU COUP DE
VENT AU SEIN DE SA STRUCTURE, PAR DES MECANISMES BAROCLINES.

CE PHENOMENE NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 041218
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 04/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.0 S / 49.2 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 65 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERLCE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 185 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 385 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 405 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/05 AT 00 UTC:
31.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 NM SE: 340 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/05 AT 12 UTC:
34.4 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 290 NM SE: 335 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.0 S / 48.2 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 575 SW: 465 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/04 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 655 SW: 415 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 270 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/05 06 UTC: 32.9 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 555 SW: 350 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 45

36H: 2025/03/05 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 555 SW: 325 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/06 06 UTC: 38.7 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 470 SW: 240 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 140

60H: 2025/03/06 18 UTC: 40.8 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 140

72H: 2025/03/07 06 UTC: 42.5 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS IMPROVED DESPITE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR, ESTIMATED AT 16KT WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH
HONDE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS FOR 4KT, THE IMPACT OF
THE WINDSHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS ANALYSIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE PASSES SSMIS-F17 (0210Z),
SSMIS-F16 (0310Z) AND GMI (0419Z), SHOWING A SYMMETRIZATION OF
CONVECTION IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, FIRST PRESENT IN THE SOUTH-WEST
QUADRANT AND THEN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING UPWARDS INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTOR, WITH A START IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE LATEST IMAGES.
A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY, WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN PUNCTUAL BEFORE THE RETURN OF LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
IN THE SHORT TERM, FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT OVER COOLER
SURFACE WATERS. WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 55KT WITH A PRESSURE OF
AROUND 986 HPA (PROVIDED BY BUOY OMM 1701608 AT 05UTC).

THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST CURRENTLY
FAVORS A GRADUAL ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, HONDE SHOULD TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS, STEERED BY
THE SOUTHERN LATITUDE FLOW, AND SHOULD THUS MOVE AWAY SOUTH OF THE
40TH PARALLEL BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN MODELS.

THIS TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE STILL
RELATIVELY WARM (CURRENTLY 26/17 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THE OMM 1701608
BUOY), BENEFITING FROM FAIRLY WEAK RELATIVE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A
SMALL DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
ONWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SET TO DETERIORATE, WITH AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEAN HEAT
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S. HONDE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY,
GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS
WITHIN ITS STRUCTURE, THROUGH BAROCLINIC MECHANISMS.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER IMPACTS ANY INHABITED TERRITORY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040623
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.0 S / 48.2 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 575 SO: 465 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/03/2025 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 655 SO: 415 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SO: 270 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

24H: 05/03/2025 06 UTC: 32.9 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 555 SO: 350 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 45

36H: 05/03/2025 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 555 SO: 325 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 55

48H: 06/03/2025 06 UTC: 38.7 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 470 SO: 240 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 140

60H: 06/03/2025 18 UTC: 40.8 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 260 SO: 150 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 140

72H: 07/03/2025 06 UTC: 42.5 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE
S'EST AMELIOREE MALGRE UNE LEGERE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND
ESTIME A 16KT SE SECTEUR OUEST-NORD-OUEST. HONDE SE DEPLACANT
ACTUELLEMENT AU SUD-SUD-EST POUR 4KT, L'IMPACT DU CISAILLEMENT RESTE
POUR LE MOMENT ANECDOTIQUE. CETTE ANALYSE EST CORROBOREE PAR LES
PASSES MICRO-ONDES SUCCESSIVES SSMIS-F17 (0210Z), SSMIS-F16 (0310Z)
ET GMI (0419Z), MONTRANT UNE SYMETRISATION DE LA CONVECTION EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE D'ABORD PRESENTE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST PUIS
REMONTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT JUSQUE DANS LE SECTEUR NORD, AVEC SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES UNE AMORCE DANS LE DEMI-CERLCE EST. C'EST DONC UNE
LEGERE INTENSIFICATION QUI EST A L'OEUVRE ACTUELLEMENT, QUI DEVRAIT
RESTER PONCTUELLE AVANT LE RETOUR DE CONDITIONS MOINS FAVORABLES A
COURT TERME, SUITE A UNE PROGRESSION DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX DE
SURFACE PLUS FRAICHES. LA VITESSE DES VENTS EST ESTIMEE A 55KT AVEC
UNE PRESSION DE L'ORDRE DE 986 HPA (FOURNIE PAR LA BOUEE OMM 1701608
A 05UTC)

LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST FAVORISE ACTUELLEMENT UNE
ACCELERATION PROGRESSIVE DU MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE JEUDI,
HONDE DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST, GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES, S'ELOIGNANT AINSI AU SUD DU 40E PARALLELE JEUDI
SOIR. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES.

CE MARDI, LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE SUR DES EAUX ENCORE RELATIVEMENT
CHAUDES (26/17 DEGRES ACTUELLEMENT SELON LA BOUEE OMM 1701608) ET
BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL RELATIF ASSEZ FAIBLE ET D'UNE
PETITE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION EST PROBABLE AU COURS DE CET APRES-MIDI. TOUTEFOIS, A
PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT SE DEGRADER AVEC UNE AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT ET UNE BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE
30S. HONDE DEVRAIT ALORS FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT EN PERDANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AU-DELA DES
PROCHAINES 48 HEURES. NEANMOINS LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENCORE GENERER DU
COUP DE VENT AU SEIN DE SA STRUCTURE, PAR DES MECANISMES BAROCLINES.

CE PHENOMENE NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 040613
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 04/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.0 S / 48.2 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 65 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/04 AT 18 UTC:
30.9 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 NM SE: 355 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
32.9 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.7 S / 48.0 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 575 SW: 465 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/04 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 640 SW: 445 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 380 SW: 270 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/05 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 565 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65

36H: 2025/03/05 12 UTC: 34.7 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 535 SW: 335 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/06 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 530 SW: 315 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 130

60H: 2025/03/06 12 UTC: 40.0 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 130

72H: 2025/03/07 00 UTC: 41.7 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
FRAGMENTED, WHILE CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF MODERATE INTENSITY HAVE BECOME
A LITTLE MORE FREQUENT NEAR THE SYSTEM'S CORE. DVORAK ANALYSIS IS
MAINLY BASED ON THE MET. DT IS LOWER AND DOES NOT CORRECTLY REFLECT
THE SYSTEM'S ACTUAL INTENSITY DUE TO INSUFFICIENTLY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
A 1533Z SAR RCM1 PASS CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF WINDS OF AT LEAST 50
KT. THE 1909Z ASCAT-C PASS ALSO CONFIRMS THE 18Z INTENSITY ANALYSIS,
SHOWING THE PRESENCE OF STORM-FORCE WINDS ONLY IN THE SOUTH-WEST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE CORE'S STRUCTURE SEEMS TO BE
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL ON THE LATEST IMAGES. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
THUS NOW ESTIMATED IN SEVERAL QUADRANTS. WE CAN ALSO NOTE A SLIGHT
NORTH-SOUTH OFFSET BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL VORTICES,
PROBABLY LINKED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. IN THE
ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, HONDE'S INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KT. WMO
BUOY 1701608 RECORDED A PRESSURE OF 990 HPA ABOUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER, WHICH SEEMS COMPATIBLE WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 985 HPA.

THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST CURRENTLY
FAVORS A GRADUAL ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, HONDE SHOULD TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS, STEERED BY
THE SOUTHERN LATITUDE FLOW, AND SHOULD THUS MOVE AWAY SOUTH OF THE
40TH PARALLEL BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN MODELS.

THIS TUESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AND BENEFITS FROM
FAIRLY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE, A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE, WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S. HONDE
SHOULD THEN WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL
FEATURES.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER IMPACTS ANY INHABITED TERRITORY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.7 S / 48.0 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 575 SO: 465 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/03/2025 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 640 SO: 445 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 380 SO: 270 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65

24H: 05/03/2025 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 565 SO: 370 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SO: 250 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65

36H: 05/03/2025 12 UTC: 34.7 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 535 SO: 335 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 0

48H: 06/03/2025 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 530 SO: 315 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 130

60H: 06/03/2025 12 UTC: 40.0 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 130

72H: 07/03/2025 00 UTC: 41.7 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE
S'EST MORCELEE TANDIS QUE DES PULSATIONS CONVECTIVES D'INTENSITE
MODEREE SONT DEVENUES UN PEU PLUS FREQUENTES PRES DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR LE MET. LE DT
EST PLUS BAS ET NE REFLETE PAS CORRECTEMENT L'INTENSITE REELLE DU
SYSTEME EN RAISON DE SOMMETS NUAGEUX PAS ASSEZ FROIDS. UNE PASSE SAR
RCM1 A 1533Z CONFIRME LA PRESENCE DE VENTS D'AU MOINS 50 KT. LA PASSE
ASCAT-C DE 1909Z CONFIRME AUSSI L'ANALYSE DE 18Z, MONTRANT LA
PRESENCE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE UNIQUEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST. TOUTEFOIS, LA STRUCTURE DU COEUR CONVECTIF SEMBLE DEVENIR
PLUS SYMETRIQUE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. LES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE
SONT DONC MAINTENANT ESTIMES DANS PLUSIEURS QUADRANTS DE LA
CIRCULATION. ON OBSERVE AUSSI UN LEGER DEPHASAGE ENTRE LE VORTEX DE
BASSES COUCHES ET CELUI DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN
AVEC UNE LEGERE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD. EN L'ABSENCE
DE NOUVELLES DONNEES, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE EST MAINTENUE A 50 KT. LA
BOUEE OMM 1701608 A MESURE UNE PRESSION DE 990 HPA EN BORDURE SUD DU
CENTRE, COMPATIBLE AVEC UNE PRESSION CENTRALE MINIMALE ESTIMEE A 985
HPA.

LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST FAVORISE ACTUELLEMENT UNE
ACCELERATION PROGRESSIVE DU MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE JEUDI,
HONDE DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST, GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES, S'ELOIGNANT AINSI AU SUD DU 40E PARALLELE JEUDI
SOIR. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES.

CE MARDI, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE SUR DES EAUX ENCORE ASSEZ
CHAUDES ET BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE
ET D'UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION
EST PROBABLE. TOUTEFOIS, A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT SE DEGRADER AVEC UNE
AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT ET UNE BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 30S. HONDE DEVRAIT ALORS FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT
EN PERDANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.

CE PHENOMENE NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 040015
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 04/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.7 S / 48.0 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/04 AT 12 UTC:
30.1 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 345 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/05 AT 00 UTC:
32.0 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 225 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.3 S / 47.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 445 SW: 425 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/04 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SW: 455 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/04 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 600 SW: 405 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/05 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 500 SW: 325 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/05 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 535 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/06 06 UTC: 39.0 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 380 SW: 220 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 130

72H: 2025/03/06 18 UTC: 41.2 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 75 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE HAS KEPT A CURVED BAND PATTERN, WRAPPING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY
NEAR THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE EVENING'S
MICROWAVE IMAGES (GPM AT 1450Z, F16 AT 1535Z) SHOW A SYMMETRICAL
CONVECTIVE CORE, BUT WITH FAIRLY SPARSE CONVECTION. A 1423Z SMOS PASS
INDICATES STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-WEST QUADRANT. HONDE IS
THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 50 KT.

THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST CURRENTLY
FAVORS AN ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS, HONDE SHOULD TURN SOUTH-EASTWARDS, STEERED BY THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDE FLOW, AND SHOULD THUS MOVE AWAY SOUTH OF THE 40TH
PARALLEL BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN MAIN MODELS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER STILL-WARM WATERS AND
BENEFITS FROM LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE, A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY. HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
ONWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE, WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL SOUTH OF
30S. HONDE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, GRADUALLY LOSING
ITS TROPICAL FEATURES.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTS ANY INHABITED
TERRITORIES.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031818
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.3 S / 47.7 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 445 SO: 425 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/03/2025 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SO: 455 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 04/03/2025 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 600 SO: 405 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 55

36H: 05/03/2025 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 500 SO: 325 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 0

48H: 05/03/2025 18 UTC: 36.3 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 535 SO: 325 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SO: 260 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 06/03/2025 06 UTC: 39.0 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 380 SO: 220 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 130

72H: 06/03/2025 18 UTC: 41.2 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 270 SO: 140 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 75 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, HONDE A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION EN
BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT AU SUD ET A L'EST DU SYSTEME. LA
CONVECTION S'EST UN PEU RENFORCEE PRES DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS
LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA SOIREE (GPM A
1450Z, F16 A 1535Z) MONTRENT UN COEUR CONVECTIF SYMETRIQUE MAIS AVEC
UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE ASSEZ CLAIRSEMEE. UNE PASSE SMOS A 1423Z
INDIQUE LA PRESENCE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST. HONDE EST DONC MAINTENU AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 50 KT.

LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST FAVORISE ACTUELLEMENT UNE
ACCELERATION DU MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, HONDE
DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST, GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES, S'ELOIGNANT AINSI AU SUD DU 40E PARALLELE JEUDI SOIR. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

A COURT TERME, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE SUR DES EAUX ENCORE
CHAUDES ET BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET D'UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION EST
PROBABLE. TOUTEFOIS, A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT SE DEGRADER AVEC UNE
AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT ET UNE BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 30S. HONDE DEVRAIT ALORS FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT
EN PERDANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.

CE PHENOMENE NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 031801
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 03/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.3 S / 47.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/04 AT 06 UTC:
29.5 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/04 AT 18 UTC:
31.0 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 325 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031252
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.8 S / 47.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 28.8 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 370 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/04 12 UTC: 30.3 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 545 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

36H: 2025/03/05 00 UTC: 32.1 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 465 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/05 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 405 SW: 250 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/06 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 435 SW: 250 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 130

72H: 2025/03/06 12 UTC: 40.2 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO A
CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, AS SHOWN BY
THE 1010Z AMSR2 PASS. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMED, SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL. WITH NO
NEW RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, HONDE IS MAINTAINED AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM 50KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST. THE SWELLING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT. DRIVEN BY THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDE FLOW, HONDE SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARDS BY THURSDAY,
LEAVING THE RSMC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE RENEWED MOVEMENT OVER STILL-WARM WATERS,
LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HONDE COULD
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR
AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S. HONDE SHOULD
THEN WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

THIS PHENOMENON NO LONGER IMPACTS SIGNIFICANTLY AN INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031252
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.8 S / 47.5 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 28.8 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SO: 370 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 04/03/2025 12 UTC: 30.3 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 545 SO: 370 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

36H: 05/03/2025 00 UTC: 32.1 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 465 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

48H: 05/03/2025 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 405 SO: 250 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 45

60H: 06/03/2025 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 435 SO: 250 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 130

72H: 06/03/2025 12 UTC: 40.2 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HONDE A
EVOLUEE VERS UNE BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD-OUEST, COMME LE CONFIRME LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 1010Z. CEPENDANT, LES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT PARTICULIEREMENT RECHAUFFES SUGGERANT UNE
FORTE BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES
ESTIMATIONS FIABLES DE L'INTENSITE, HONDE EST MAINTENUE AU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 50KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION. LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU
NORD-EST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC
VERS LE SUD. GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DES LATITUDES AUSTRALES, HONDE DEVRAIT
TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI, SORTANT DE LA ZONE DE
RESPONSABILITE DU CMRS DE LA REUNION PAR LE SUD. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

A COURT TERME, A LA FAVEUR DE LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT SUR DES
EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES, D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET D'UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, HONDE POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION. TOUTEFOIS, A PARTIR DE MARDI, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE DEGRADER AVEC UNE
AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT ET UNE BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, AU SUD DE 30S. HONDE DEVRAIT ALORS FAIBLIR PLUS
FRANCHEMENT EN PERDANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES.

CE PHENOMENE NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF SUR UNE TERRE
HABITEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 031217
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 03/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.8 S / 47.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/04 AT 00 UTC:
28.8 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/04 AT 12 UTC:
30.3 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/04 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2025/03/04 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 490 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/05 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 435 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 35

60H: 2025/03/05 18 UTC: 36.5 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 435 SW: 250 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2025/03/06 06 UTC: 39.0 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/07 06 UTC: 42.0 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY,
WITH A CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND WARMING TOPS.
MICROWAVE PASSES, NOTABLY GMI (0502Z), CONFIRM A STRONG ASYMMETRY IN
THE SYSTEM'S CORE. THIS COULD POSSIBLY BE EXPLAINED BY THE PRESENCE
OF A WESTERLY SHEAR, BUT THE LATEST ANALYSES DO NOT CONFIRM THIS. THE
WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS COULD ALSO BE THE RESULT OF A DECREASE IN
OCEANIC POTENTIAL DUE TO COOLING OF THE UNDERLYING WATERS AS A RESULT
OF THE SLOW MOTION. NEVERTHELESS, A SMOS PASS THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 50KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST. HONDE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF CONTRADICTORY FLOWS FROM THE
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTER OF THE BASIN AND THE ONE OVER AFRICA.
THE SWELLING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD GRADUALLY FAVOR A
MORE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT, ACCELERATING FROM THIS EVENING ONWARDS.
GUIDED BY THE SOUTHERN LATITUDE FLOW, HONDE SHOULD TURN
SOUTHEASTWARDS BY THURSDAY, LEAVING THE RSMC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE RENEWED MOVEMENT OVER STILL-WARM WATERS,
LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HONDE
INTENSITY COULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE, WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL. HONDE
SHOULD THEN WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

THIS PHENOMENON NO LONGER IMPACTS SIGNIFICANTLY AN INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030636
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.4 S / 46.7 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 390 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 04/03/2025 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 480 SO: 405 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 04/03/2025 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 490 SO: 270 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45

48H: 05/03/2025 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 435 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 35

60H: 05/03/2025 18 UTC: 36.5 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 435 SO: 250 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 06/03/2025 06 UTC: 39.0 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/03/2025 06 UTC: 42.0 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 195 SO: 0 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HONDE
S'EST LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE AVEC UN CENTRE PLUS EN MARGE DE L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE ET DES SOMMETS QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFEES. LES PASSES
MICRO-ONDES NOTAMMENT GMI (0502Z) CONFIRMENT UNE FORTE ASYMETRIE DANS
LE COEUR DU SYSTEME. CELLE CI POURRAIT EVENTUELLEMENT S'EXPLIQUER PAR
LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST TOUTEFOIS LES DERNIERES
ANALYSES NE PERMETTENT PAS DE LE CONFIRMER. LE RECHAUFFEMENT DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX POURRAIT AUSSI ETRE LA CONSEQUENCE D'UN BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES EN
RAISON DU LENT DEPLACEMENT. UNE PASSE SMOS CE MATIN MONTRENT
CEPENDANT QUE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE SONT PRESENTES DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. L'INTENSITE A ETE REHAUSSEE A 50KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION, SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES DE LA DORSALE LOCALISEE SUR LE CENTRE DU BASSIN ET DE
CELLE SUR L'AFRIQUE, HONDE CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC VERS LE
SUD AVEC UNE ACCELERATION A PARTIR DE CE SOIR. GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES, HONDE DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST A ECHEANCE
DE JEUDI, SORTANT DE LA ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE DU CMRS DE LA REUNION
PAR LE SUD. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

A COURT TERME, A LA FAVEUR DE LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT SUR DES
EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES, D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET D'UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE POURRAIT CONNAITRE
UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION. TOUTEFOIS, A PARTIR DE MARDI, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE DEGRADER AVEC
UNE AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT ET UNE BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE. HONDE DEVRAIT ALORS FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT EN PERDANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.

CE PHENOMENE NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF SUR UNE TERRE
HABITEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 030615 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 03/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 18 UTC:
28.3 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/04 AT 06 UTC:
29.6 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 030611
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 03/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 18 UTC:
28.3 S / 47.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

24H, VALID 2025/03/04 AT 06 UTC:
29.6 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030010
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/11/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.6 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 28.8 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2025/03/04 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/05 00 UTC: 31.7 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/05 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 380 SW: 220 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

72H: 2025/03/06 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HONDE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN A CLEAR
CONVECTION BOOST IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT, STARTING AT THE PREVIOUS
ANALYSIS TIME. THIS DEFINES A CDO PATTERN, BUT THE PT ANALYSIS
STAGNATES AT AROUND 3.5. WITH THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 1845UTC, THE
WINDS SATURATE AT 45KT, MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS AT 3.5- BY COHERENCE. THE LATEST RELIABLE MICROWAVE DATA
(GCOM-W 2202UTC) VALIDATE THE QUASI-STATIONARITY AND CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN OPEN LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN THE WESTERN SECTOR, BUT BETTER DEFINED IN
THE EASTERN SECTOR UNDER CONVECTION. HONDE HAS THEREFORE PASSED THE
THRESHOLD OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM, BUT ITS INTENSITY SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, HONDE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DUE TO CONTRADICTORY FLOWS FROM THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN AND THE RIDGE OVER AFRICA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION IS LIKELY, DUE TO WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINKED TO A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD GRADUALLY
ENCOURAGE A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT, ACCELERATING FROM LATE MONDAY.
GUIDED BY THE FLOW FROM THE MERIDIONAL LATITUDES, HONDE SHOULD TURN
SOUTH-EASTERLY BY THURSDAY, LEAVING THE REUNION RSMC AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY TO THE SOUTH. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF THE MAIN MODELS, BUT THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BOTH IN THE SHORT TERM, DURING THE
QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE, AND DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN THE SHORT TERM, AS HONDE RESUMES ITS MOVEMENT OVER STILL-WARM
WATERS, AND WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ITS INTENSITY COULD RISE AGAIN THROUGH TO TUESDAY, TEMPORARILY
REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, HONDE
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DESCENDS TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES IN AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030010
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/11/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.1 S / 46.6 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SO: 185 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 100

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 28.8 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 360 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 04/03/2025 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 05/03/2025 00 UTC: 31.7 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 05/03/2025 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 380 SO: 220 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 35

72H: 06/03/2025 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 350 SO: 230 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HONDE A
MARQUE UN NET BOOST DE CONVECTION DANS LE QUADRANT EST, COMMENCE AU
RESEAU PRECEDENT. CELA DEFINIT DONC UNE CONFIGURATION EN CDO MAIS
DONT L'ANALYSE EN PT STAGNE AUX ALENTOURS DE 3.5. AVEC LA PASSE ASCAT
PARTIELLE DE 1845UTC, LES VENTS SATURENT A 45KT PERMETTANT DE
PRECISER L'ANALYSE DVORAK A 3.5- PAR COHERENCE. LES DERNIERES DONNEES
MICRO-ONDES FIABLES (GCOM-W 2202UTC) VALIDENT LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE
ET CONTINUE DE MONTRER UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES OUVERT DANS LE
SECTEUR OUEST, MAIS MIEUX DEFINI DANS LE SECTEUR EST SOUS LA
CONVECTION. HONDE PASSE DONC LE SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
MAIS SON INTENSITE DEVRAIT REMONTER DANS LES HEURES PROCHAINES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION, SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES DE LA DORSALE LOCALISEE SUR LE CENTRE DU BASSIN ET DE
CELLE SUR L'AFRIQUE, HONDE CONTINUERA DE SE DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT
DANS LES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE LEGERE ORIENTATION VERS
L'EST-SUD-EST EST TOUTEFOIS PROBABLE SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE
DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. LE
GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT
FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC VERS LE SUD AVEC UNE ACCELERATION
A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE. GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DES LATITUDES
PLUS MERIDIONALES, HONDE DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST A ECHEANCE
DE JEUDI, SORTANT DE LA ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE DU CMRS DE LA REUNION
PAR LE SUD. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS SCENARII DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, MAIS L'INCERTITUDE RESTE
NOTABLE QUE CE SOIT SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES LORS DE LA PHASE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE OU LORS DE SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

A COURT TERME, A LA FAVEUR DE LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT SUR DES
EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES, D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET D'UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE POURRAIT REMONTER
JUSQU'A MARDI, POUVANT ATTEINDRE TEMPORAIREMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HONDE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR PLUS
FRANCHEMENT EN PERDANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES LORS DE SA DESCENTE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS CISAILLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES ENTRE 4 ET 5M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 030000
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 03/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 46.6 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 12 UTC:
27.8 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/04 AT 00 UTC:
28.8 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021804
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0 S / 46.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 325 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2025/03/04 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 480 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/04 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 480 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/05 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 445 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/05 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 435 SW: 260 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=2.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE HONDE CLOUD PATTERN HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY, WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. MORE RECENTLY, ACTIVITY HAS PICKED
UP IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
DATA, NOTABLY THE GCOM-W FROM 1523UTC, CLEARLY SHOW A FAIRLY OPEN
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. THE SYSTEM'S PERSISTENT
QUASI-STATIONARITY CONTRIBUTES TO THIS DECLINE BY INDUCING UPWELLING
OF COLD WATER. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE PT ANALYSIS HAS DROPPED SHARPLY,
LEAVING A CI OF 3.5 DUE TO INERTIA. THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE IS
THEREFORE LOWERED TO 50 KT, STILL AT THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM.

HONDE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
DUE TO CONTRADICTORY FLOWS FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
THE RIDGE OVER AFRICA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
IS LIKELY, DUE TO WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINKED TO A
TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD GRADUALLY ENCOURAGE A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT,
ACCELERATING FROM LATE MONDAY. GUIDED BY THE FLOW FROM THE MERIDIONAL
LATITUDES, HONDE SHOULD TURN SOUTH-EASTERLY BY THURSDAY, LEAVING THE
REUNION RSMC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY TO THE SOUTH. THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF THE MAIN
MODELS, BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BOTH IN THE SHORT
TERM, DURING THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE, AND DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

IN THE SHORT TERM, HONDE'S INTENSITY SHOULD MORE OR LESS PLATEAU OR
WEAKEN A BIT DUE TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT INDUCING UPWELLING AND DESPITE
A FAIRLY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. FROM MONDAY, AS HONDE RESUMES ITS
MOVEMENT OVER STILL-WARM WATERS, AND WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ITS INTENSITY COULD RISE AGAIN THROUGH TO
TUESDAY, TEMPORARILY REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, HONDE SHOULD WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DESCENDS TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES IN AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021804
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 02/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.0 S / 46.5 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 325 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 04/03/2025 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 480 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 04/03/2025 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 480 SO: 270 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 215 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 05/03/2025 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 445 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 45

72H: 05/03/2025 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 435 SO: 260 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=2.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HONDE A
BEAUCOUP FAIBLI CONSERVANT DE LA CONVECTION SIGNIFICATIVE SURTOUT
DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU SYSTEME. PLUS RECEMMENT, L'ACTIVITE REPOND DANS
LE SECTEUR EST DE LA CIRCULATION. LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES,
NOTAMMENT LA GCOM-W DE 1523UTC, MONTRENT BIEN UNE STRUCTURE DE BASSES
COUCHES ASSEZ OUVERTE DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST. LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE
DU SYSTEME QUI PERSISTE CONTRIBUE A CE DECLIN EN INDUISANT DES
REMONTEES D'EAUX FROIDES. DANS CE CONTEXTE, L'ANALYSE EN PT EST EN
NETTE BAISSE LAISSANT PAR INERTIE ENCORE UN CI DE 3.5. L'INTENSITE DE
HONDE EST DONC ABAISSEE A 50 KT, ENCORE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE.

SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES DE LA DORSALE LOCALISEE SUR LE
CENTRE DU BASSIN ET DE CELLE SUR L'AFRIQUE, HONDE CONTINUERA DE SE
DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT DANS LES 12-24 PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE LEGERE
ORIENTATION VERS L'EST-SUD-EST EST TOUTEFOIS PROBABLE SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT
PLUS AU SUD. LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC VERS LE SUD AVEC
UNE ACCELERATION A PARTIR DE LUNDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE. GUIDE PAR LE
FLUX DES LATITUDES PLUS MERIDIONALES, HONDE DEVRAIT TOURNER VERS LE
SUD-EST A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI, SORTANT DE LA ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE DU
CMRS DE LA REUNION PAR LE SUD. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARII DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, MAIS
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE NOTABLE QUE CE SOIT SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES
LORS DE LA PHASE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE OU LORS DE SA TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE.

A COURTE TERME, DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE
DEVRAIT PLAFONNER VOIRE LEGEREMENT BAISSER EN RAISON DE LA
RETROACTION NEGATIVE DUE AU REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX DE SURFACE. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, A LA FAVEUR DE LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT SUR DES
EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES, D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET D'UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE POURRAIT REMONTER
JUSQU'A MARDI, POUVANT ATTEINDRE TEMPORAIREMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HONDE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR PLUS
FRANCHEMENT EN PERDANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES LORS DE SA DESCENTE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS CISAILLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES ENTRE 4 ET 5M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 021759
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 02/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0 S / 46.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 06 UTC:
27.4 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 18 UTC:
28.3 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021313 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0 S / 46.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 380 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/04 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/05 00 UTC: 31.7 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 455 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/05 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 425 SW: 250 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/06 12 UTC: 39.9 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE HAS GRADUALLY LOST ITS EYE PATTERN IN
CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 1105Z AMSR2 GCOM-W MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE INNER CONVECTIVE CORE IS NOW OPEN ALONG ITS
SOUTHERN EDGE, BUT STILL FAIRLY SOLID IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THIS SEEMS TO BE LINKED TO A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR AND PERHAPS ALSO TO THE SYSTEM'S QUASI-STATIONARITY, INDUCING
MORE OR LESS UPWELLING OF COLD WATERS. SATCON HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY
SINCE 06Z. HONDE'S INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.

HONDE WILL KEEP MOVING VERY SLOWLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE BASIN AND THE RIDGE OVER AFRICA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT EAST
THEN SOUTH-EAST MOVEMENT IS LIKELY, DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINKED TO A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY FAVOR A
MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, THEN TURNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST, STEERED BY THE FLOW PRESENT IN MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES.
THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT NWP
SCENARIOS, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, WHETHER ON THE SHORT
TIMESCALES DURING THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE OR DURING THE SYSTEM'S
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN THE SHORT TERM, HONDE'S INTENSITY SHOULD MORE OR LESS PLATEAU OR
WEAKEN A BIT DUE TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT INDUCING UPWELLING AND DESPITE
A FAIRLY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. FROM MONDAY, AS HONDE RESUMES ITS
MOVEMENT OVER STILL-WARM WATERS, AND WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ITS INTENSITY COULD INCREASE BETWEEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY, AND COULD TEMPORARILY REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, HONDE SHOULD START WEAKENING AGAIN,
GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021313 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 02/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.0 S / 46.4 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 380 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 04/03/2025 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 05/03/2025 00 UTC: 31.7 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 455 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 05/03/2025 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 425 SO: 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/03/2025 12 UTC: 39.9 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, HONDE A PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDU SA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL EN IMAGERIE SATELLITE CLASSIQUE ET LA
CONVECTION S'EST AFFAIBLIE, SURTOUT DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU SYSTEME.
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 GCOM-W DE 1105Z MONTRE UN COEUR CONVECTIF
INTERNE OUVERT DANS SA PARTIE SUD MAIS ENCORE ASSEZ SOLIDE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD. CELA SEMBLE LIE A UNE HAUSSE TEMPORAIRE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST ET PEUT-ETRE AUSSI A LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE
DU SYSTEME INDUISANT DES REMONTEES D'EAUX FROIDES. LE SATCON EST EN
LEGERE BAISSE DEPUIS 06Z. L'INTENSITE DE HONDE EST DONC ABAISSEE A 55
KT.

SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES DE LA DORSALE LOCALISEE SUR LE
CENTRE DU BASSIN ET DE CELLE SUR L'AFRIQUE, HONDE CONTINUERA DE SE
DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT DANS LES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE LEGERE
ORIENTATION VERS L'EST PUIS SUD-EST EST TOUTEFOIS PROBABLE SOUS
L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG
PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC VERS LE SUD AVANT
DE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST, GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DES LATITUDES PLUS
MERIDIONALES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS SCENARII DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, MAIS L'INCERTITUDE RESTE
IMPORTANTE QUE CE SOIT SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES LORS DE LA PHASE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE OU LORS DE SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

A COURTE TERME, DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE
DEVRAIT PLAFONNER VOIRE LEGEREMENT BAISSER EN RAISON DE LA
RETROACTION NEGATIVE DUE AU REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX DE SURFACE, A
QUOI S'AJOUTE UN PETIT CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, A
LA FAVEUR DE LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT SUR DES EAUX ENCORE
CHAUDES, D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET D'UNE TRES BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE POURRAIT REMONTER ENTRE
LUNDI APRES-MIDI ET MARDI, POUVANT ATTEINDRE TEMPORAIREMENT LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HONDE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR DE
NOUVEAU EN PERDANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES
LORS DE SA DESCENTE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
DE PLUS EN PLUS CISAILLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES ENTRE 4 ET 5M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0 S / 46.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 380 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/04 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/05 00 UTC: 31.7 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 455 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/05 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 425 SW: 250 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/06 12 UTC: 39.9 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE HAS GRADUALLY LOST ITS EYE PATTERN IN
CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 1105Z AMSR2 GCOM-W MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE INNER CONVECTIVE CORE IS NOW OPEN ALONG ITS
SOUTHERN EDGE, BUT STILL FAIRLY SOLID IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THIS SEEMS TO BE LINKED TO A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR AND PERHAPS ALSO TO THE SYSTEM'S QUASI-STATIONARITY, INDUCING
MORE OR LESS UPWELLING OF COLD WATERS. SATCON HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY
SINCE 06Z. HONDE'S INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.

HONDE WILL KEEP MOVING VERY SLOWLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE BASIN AND THE RIDGE OVER AFRICA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT EAST
THEN SOUTH-EAST MOVEMENT IS LIKELY, DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINKED TO A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY FAVOR A
MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, THEN TURNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST, STEERED BY THE FLOW PRESENT IN MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES.
THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT NWP
SCENARIOS, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, WHETHER ON THE SHORT
TIMESCALES DURING THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE OR DURING THE SYSTEM'S
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN THE SHORT TERM, HONDE'S INTENSITY SHOULD MORE OR LESS PLATEAU OR
WEAKEN A BIT DUE TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT INDUCING UPWELLING AND DESPITE
A FAIRLY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. AS HONDE RESUMES ITS MOVEMENT OVER
STILL-WARM WATERS AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, ITS INTENSITY COULD
INCREASE BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND COULD TEMPORARILY REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, HONDE SHOULD START
WEAKENING AGAIN, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021238
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 02/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.0 S / 46.4 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 380 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 04/03/2025 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 05/03/2025 00 UTC: 31.7 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 455 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 05/03/2025 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 425 SO: 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/03/2025 12 UTC: 39.9 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, HONDE A PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDU SA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL EN IMAGERIE SATELLITE CLASSIQUE ET LA
CONVECTION S'EST AFFAIBLIE, SURTOUT DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU SYSTEME.
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 GCOM-W DE 1105Z MONTRE UN COEUR CONVECTIF
INTERNE OUVERT DANS SA PARTIE SUD MAIS ENCORE ASSEZ SOLIDE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD. CELA SEMBLE LIE A UNE HAUSSE TEMPORAIRE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST ET PEUT-ETRE AUSSI A LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE
DU SYSTEME INDUISANT DES REMONTEES D'EAUX FROIDES. LE SATCON EST EN
LEGERE BAISSE DEPUIS 06Z. L'INTENSITE DE HONDE EST DONC ABAISSEE A 55
KT.

SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES DE LA DORSALE LOCALISEE SUR LE
CENTRE DU BASSIN ET DE CELLE SUR L'AFRIQUE, HONDE CONTINUERA DE SE
DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT DANS LES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE LEGERE
ORIENTATION VERS L'EST PUIS SUD-EST EST TOUTEFOIS PROBABLE SOUS
L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG
PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC VERS LE SUD AVANT
DE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST, GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DES LATITUDES PLUS
MERIDIONALES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS SCENARII DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, MAIS L'INCERTITUDE RESTE
IMPORTANTE QUE CE SOIT SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES LORS DE LA PHASE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE OU LORS DE SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

A COURTE TERME, DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE
DEVRAIT PLAFONNER VOIRE LEGEREMENT BAISSER EN RAISON DE LA
RETROACTION NEGATIVE DUE AU REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX DE SURFACE, A
QUOI S'AJOUTE UN PETIT CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, A
LA FAVEUR DE LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT SUR DES EAUX ENCORE
CHAUDES, D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE ET D'UNE TRES BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE POURRAIT REMONTER ENTRE
LUNDI ET MARDI, POUVANT ATTEINDRE TEMPORAIREMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HONDE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR DE NOUVEAU EN
PERDANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES LORS DE SA
DESCENTE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN
PLUS CISAILLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES ENTRE 4 ET 5M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 021224
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 02/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0 S / 46.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 00 UTC:
27.1 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 12 UTC:
27.8 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020739
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.2 S / 45.9 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

24H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 380 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

36H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SW: 435 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/04 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 415 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/04 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/05 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 415 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/06 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED, WITH A MORE
CLOSED CONVECTION RING AND A MORE COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE.
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS INCREASED FROM 4.0 TO 4.5 ON THE
LATEST IMAGES, LEADING TO A T-NUMBER AT 4.0+. THE 0613Z ASCAT-B PASS
MEASURES WINDS UP TO 49 KT, EQUIVALENT TO 60 KT AFTER BIAS
CORRECTION. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE RMW HAS CONTRACTED AND THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN ESTIMATED. THE SYSTEM'S POSITION
WILL THEREFORE BE CORRECTED AFTERHAND, INDICATING A VERY SLOW
EAST-TO-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
60 KT, IN LINE WITH ASCAT DATA, DVORAK ANALYSIS AND SATCON ESTIMATE.

HONDE WILL KEEP MOVING VERY SLOWLY IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE BASIN AND THE RIDGE OVER AFRICA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT EAST
THEN SOUTH-EAST MOVEMENT IS LIKELY, DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINKED TO A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
FAVOR A MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE SOUTHEAST STEERED BY THE MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES FLOW. THE
PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT NWP SCENARIOS,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, WHETHER ON THE SHORT TIMESCALES
DURING THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE OR DURING THE SYSTEM'S
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES, WITH A
DIFFERENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT GENERATING A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF
ALMOST 12H.

IN THE SHORT TERM, HONDE'S INTENSITY SHOULD MORE OR LESS PLATEAU DUE
TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT INDUCING UP-WELLING AND DESPITE A FAIRLY LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR. AS HONDE RESUMES ITS MOVEMENT OVER STILL-WARM WATERS
AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, ITS INTENSITY COULD INCREASE BETWEEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNING, AND COULD TEMPORARILY REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, HONDE SHOULD START WEAKENING,
GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- RISK OF HEAVY RAIN GRADUALLY DECREASING UNTIL MONDAY, 50 TO 100 MM
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24HRS
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020739
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.2 S / 45.9 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/03/2025 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SO: 270 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

24H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 380 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45

36H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SO: 435 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 04/03/2025 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 415 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 04/03/2025 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 45

72H: 05/03/2025 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 415 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/03/2025 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE HONDE
S'EST AMELIOREE AVEC UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION MIEUX REFERME ET UNE
STRUCTURE DEVENUE PLUS COMPACTE ET SYMETRIQUE. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK EN OEIL EST MONTEE DE 4.0 A 4.5 SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES,
PERMETTANT UNE ESTIMATION DU NOMBRE T A 4.0+. LA PASSE ASCAT-B DE
0613Z MESURE DES VENTS DE 49 KT, EQUIVALENTS A 60 KT APRES CORRECTION
DU BIAIS. ELLE MONTRE AUSSI QUE LE RVM S'EST CONTRACTE ET QUE LE
CENTRE SE SITUE UN PEU PLUS A L'EST QU'ESTIME. LA POSITION SERA DONC
CORRIGEE A POSTERIORI, INDIQUANT UN TRES LENT MOUVEMENT VERS L'EST A
NORD-EST. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST REHAUSSEE A 60 KT, EN ACCORD
AVEC LES DONNEES ASCAT, L'ANALYSE DVORAK ET L'ESTIMATION SATCON.

SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES DE LA DORSALE LOCALISEE SUR LE
CENTRE DU BASSIN ET DE CELLE SUR L'AFRIQUE, HONDE CONTINUERA DE SE
DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT DANS LES 24 A 36 PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE
LEGERE ORIENTATION VERS L'EST PUIS SUD-EST EST TOUTEFOIS PROBABLE
SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN
TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC AVEC UN
MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD AVANT DE SE REDRESSER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE
SUD-EST GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DES LATITUDES PLUS SUD. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARII DES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES, MAIS L'INCERTITUDE RESTE IMPORTANTE QUE CE SOIT
SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES LORS DE LA PHASE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE OU LORS
DE L'EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES, AVEC UNE DIFFERENCE DE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ENGENDRANT UNE DIFFERENCE DE CHRONOLOGIE DE
PRES DE 12H.

AU COURS DES COURTES ECHEANCES ET DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT,
L'INTENSITE DE HONDE DEVRAIT PLAFONNER EN RAISON DE LA RETROACTION
NEGATIVE DUE AU REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX DE SURFACE, ET MALGRE UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PLUTOT FAIBLE. A LA FAVEUR DE LA REPRISE DE SON
DEPLACEMENT SUR DES EAUX ENCORE CHAUDES ET UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
FAIBLE, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE POURRAIT REMONTER ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI
MATIN, POUVANT ATTEINDRE TEMPORAIREMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HONDE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR DE NOUVEAU EN PERDANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES LORS DE SA DESCENTE
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS
CISAILLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES PROGRESSIVEMENT EN BAISSE D'ICI LUNDI, 50 A
100 MM ENCORE POSSIBLES DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES ENTRE 4 ET 5M JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 020634
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 02/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.2 S / 45.9 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 18 UTC:
27.2 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 06 UTC:
27.5 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 020018
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 02/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 981 HPA
POSITION: 27.2 S / 45.9 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 205 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 12 UTC:
27.4 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/03 AT 00 UTC:
27.7 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 27.0S 45.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 45.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.1S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.1S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.5S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.3S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.8S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 36.1S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 45.9E.
01MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420
NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 011814
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 01/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.1 S / 45.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 205 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 06 UTC:
27.4 S / 46.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 18 UTC:
27.5 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 011253
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 45.4 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 380 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 315 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 360 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SW: 360 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 445 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 445 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/04 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 435 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/05 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 455 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/06 12 UTC: 39.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 185

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE HAS MAINTAINED AN ILL-DEFINED EYE CLOUD
PATTERN. THE EYE REMAINS LARGE AND DECHICTE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS.
A DVORAK ANALYSIS STILL SUGGESTS A T OF THE ORDER OF 4.0- WEAKENING
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURE OF THE COLDEST RING. DUE TO
INERTIA, WE MUST KEEP A CI OF 4.5 WHICH DOES NOT VALIDATE THE MAXIMUM
VALUE OF 55KT GIVEN BY THE ASCAT OF 0546UTC. THIS VALUE THEREFORE
DECLASSES HONDE AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, STILL WITH A LARGE
CIRCULATION.

HONDE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY
FLOWS FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE BASIN AND THE RIDGE OVER
AFRICA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION IS NOTICEABLE,
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINKED TO A TROUGH PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH. AGAINST THIS BACKDROP OF CONTRADICTORY FLOWS, A SLOW
TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE SYSTEMS. THE SWELLING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY FAVOR A MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD MOVEMENT WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION, BEFORE
STRAIGHTENING OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST GUIDED BY THE MORE SOUTHERLY
LATITUDE FLOW. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF THE MAIN MODELS, BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT, WHETHER ON THE SHORT TIMESCALES OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
PHASE THAT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WITH A WIDER TURN, OR OF THE
EVACUATION TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES WITH A DIFFERENT SPEED OF
DISPLACEMENT GENERATING A DIFFERENCE IN CHRONOLOGY OF ALMOST 12H.

IN THE SHORT TERM, HONDE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY,
DESPITE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT BUT DIMINISHING
OCEAN POTENTIAL. WITH THE RESUMPTION OF ITS MOVEMENT AND A TEMPORARY
BOOST FROM SHEAR AT THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN BOUNDARY, HONDE'S INTENSITY
COULD INCREASE, LEAVING THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY
TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, HONDE SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AGAIN, LOSING ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DESCENDS TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES, IN AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALES VERY LIKELY THIS SATURDAY.
- RISK OF HEAVY RAIN GRADUALLY DECREASING UP TO MONDAY, 50 TO 100MM
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24HRS, 100 TO 300MM IN THE NEXT 48HRS ON
THE SOUTHERN COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF AROUND 6M THIS SATURDAY, THEN WAVES
BETWEEN 4 AND 6M UNTIL MONDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 011253
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 01/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.9 S / 45.4 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 380 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SO: 315 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SO: 360 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SO: 360 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55

48H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SO: 445 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 45

60H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SO: 445 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 45

72H: 04/03/2025 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 435 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/03/2025 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 455 SO: 345 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

120H: 06/03/2025 12 UTC: 39.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 325 SO: 215 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 185

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, HONDE A CONSERVE UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EN OEIL MAL DEFINIE. L'OEIL RESTE DE GRANDE TAILLE ET
DECHIQUETE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE RECHAUFFENT. UNE ANALYSE
DVORAK PERMET D'ESTIMER ENCORE UN T DE L'ORDRE DE 4.0- FAIBLISSANT DU
FAIT DE LA TEMPERATURE DE PLUS EN PLUS CHAUDE DE L'ANNEAU LE PLUS
FROID. PAR INERTIE, ON DOIT GARDER UN CI DE 4.5 QUI NE VALIDE PAS LA
VALEUR MAXIMALE DE 55KT DONNEE PAR L'ASCAT DE 0546UTC. CETTE VALEUR
DECLASSE DONC HONDE EN FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, AVEC TOUJOURS UNE
CIRCULATION DE GRANDE TAILLE.

SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES DE LA DORSALE LOCALISEE SUR LE
CENTRE DU BASSIN ET DE CELLE SUR L'AFRIQUE, HONDE SE DEPLACE TRES
LENTEMENT. UNE LEGERE ORIENTATION VERS L'EST-SUD-EST EST TOUTEFOIS
NOTABLE SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. DANS CE CONTEXTE DE FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES, UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE EST PREVUE PENDANT LES
PROCHAINES 36H, AVEC UNE DISPERSION ENCORE IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES. LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
NORD-EST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC
AVEC UNE ORIENTATION AU SUD-SUD-EST AVANT DE SE REDRESSER VERS LE
SUD-EST GUIDE PAR LE FLUX DES LATITUDES PLUS SUD. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARII DES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES, MAIS L'INCERTITUDE RESTE IMPORTANTE QUE CE SOIT
SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES LORS DE LA PHASE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE QUE
CERTAINES GUIDANCE PROPOSENT AVEC UN VIRAGE PLUS LARGE OU LORS DE
L'EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD AVEC UNE DIFFERENTE DE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ENGENDRANT UNE DIFFERENCE DE CHRONOLOGIE DE
PRES DE 12H.

AU COURS DES COURTES ECHEANCES ET DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT,
HONDE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
PLUTOT FAIBLE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT MAIS EN BAISSE. A
LA FAVEUR DE LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT ET BOOSTEE TEMPORAIREMENT
PAR UN CISAILLEMENT EN LIMITE SUD DU SYSTEME, L'INTENSITE DE HONDE
POURRAIT REMONTER EN LAISSANT LE SYSTEME AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE A ECHEANCE DE MARDI. PAR LA SUITE, HONDE DEVRAIT COMMENCER
A FAIBLIR DE NOUVEAU EN PERDANT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES LORS
DE SA DESCENTE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE
PLUS EN PLUS CISAILLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE CE SAMEDI
- RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES PROGRESSIVEMENT EN BAISSE D'ICI LUNDI, 50 A
100MM ENCORE POSSIBLES DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, 100 A 300MM DANS LES
PROCHAINES 48H SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.
- MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE L'ORDRE DE 6M CE SAMEDI PUIS
VAGUES ENTRE 4 ET 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 011201
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 01/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9 S / 45.4 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 205 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
27.2 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 12 UTC:
27.4 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 26.8S 45.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 45.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.1S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.3S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.5S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.2S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 32.1S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 45.3E.
01MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388
NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010728
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/11/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 45.1 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 465 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 335 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/02 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 350 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 370 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SW: 465 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/04 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SW: 455 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/05 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 465 SW: 380 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 35

120H: 2025/03/06 06 UTC: 37.9 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 220

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS STRUGGLED TO
IMPROVE. THE EYE IS STILL LARGE AND FAIRLY RAGGED, REVEALING
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY, ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED A
LITTLE MORE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE
DATA, THE ANALYZED INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65KT WITH A DVORAK
ANALYSIS OF 4.5-, RATHER IN LINE WITH OTHER SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

HONDE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY
FLOWS FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE BASIN AND THE RIDGE OVER
AFRICA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION IS NOTICEABLE,
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINKED TO A TROUGH PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH. IN THIS CONTEXT OF CONTRADICTORY FLOWS, A SLOW TRACK
IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, WITH SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE SYSTEMS. THE SWELLING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD GRADUALLY FAVOR A MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SHIFT. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF THE MAIN MODELS, BUT
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES
TO EVACUATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

IN THE SHORT TERM, HONDE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY,
DESPITE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT BUT DIMINISHING
OCEAN POTENTIAL. WITH THE RESUMPTION OF ITS MOVEMENT AND A TEMPORARY
BOOST FROM SHEAR AT THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN BOUNDARY, GARANCE'S
INTENSITY COULD RISE, LEAVING THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM
BY TUESDAY. HONDE SHOULD THEN START TO WEAKEN AGAIN, LOSING ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES DOWN TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES.

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALES VERY LIKELY AND STORM FORCE POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY.
- RISK OF HEAVY RAIN GRADUALLY DECREASING UP TO MONDAY, 50 TO 100MM
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24HRS, 100 TO 300MM IN THE NEXT 72HRS ON
THE SOUTHERN COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS 4/6M UP TO MONDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010728
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/11/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 01/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.8 S / 45.1 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 465 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 335 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/03/2025 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 02/03/2025 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SO: 335 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 02/03/2025 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 350 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SO: 370 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 45

60H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SO: 465 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 45

72H: 04/03/2025 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SO: 455 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/03/2025 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 465 SO: 380 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 35

120H: 06/03/2025 06 UTC: 37.9 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 520 SO: 415 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 220

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL A
DU MAL A S'AMELIORER. L'OEIL RESTE DE GRANDE TAILLE ET ASSEZ
DECHIQUETE LAISSANT BIEN APPARAITRE LA VORTIVITE DE BASSES COUCHES,
BIEN QUE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SE CONCENTRE UN PEU PLUS DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES FIABLES, L'INTENSITE
ANALYSEE EST MAINTENUE A 65KT AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK A 4.5- PLUTOT
EN ACCORD AVEC LES AUTRES GUIDANCES SUBJECTIVES.

SOUS L'EFFET DE FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES DE LA DORSALE LOCALISEE SUR LE
CENTRE DU BASSIN ET DE CELLE SUR L'AFRIQUE, HONDE SE DEPLACE TRES
LENTEMENT. UNE LEGERE ORIENTATION VERS L'EST-SUD-EST EST TOUTEFOIS
NOTABLE SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. DANS CE CONTEXTE DE FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES, UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE EST PREVUE PENDANT LES
PROCHAINES 36-48H, AVEC UNE DISPERSION ENCORE IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES. LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
NORD-EST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT FAVORISER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC
AVEC UNE ORIENTATION AU SUD-SUD-EST. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARII DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, MAIS
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE IMPORTANTE NOTAMMENT LORS DE L'EVACUATION VERS
LES LATITUDE PLUS SUD.

AU COURS DES COURTES ECHEANCES ET DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT,
HONDE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
PLUTOT FAIBLE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT MAIS EN BAISSE. A
LA FAVEUR DE LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT ET BOOSTEE TEMPORAIREMENT
PAR UN CISAILLEMENT EN LIMITE SUD DU SYSTEME, L'INTENSITE DE GARANCE
POURRAIT REMONTER EN LAISSANT LE SYSTEME AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE A ECHEANCE DE MARDI. PAR LA SUITE, HONDE DEVRAIT COMMENCER
A FAIBLIR DE NOUVEAU EN PERDANT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES LORS
DE SA DESCENTE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE, TEMPETE POSSIBLE CE SAMEDI
- RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES PROGRESSIVEMENT EN BAISSE D'ICI LUNDI, 50 A
100MM ENCORE POSSIBLES DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, 100 A 300MM DANS LES
PROCHAINES 72H SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.
- MER TRES FORTE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 010609
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 01/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 45.1 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 18 UTC:
27.1 S / 45.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 06 UTC:
27.3 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010110
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/11/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 44.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 465 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 335 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 400 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 215 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 380 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 445 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SW: 445 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/05 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 435 SW: 350 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 35

120H: 2025/03/06 00 UTC: 36.8 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 470 SW: 360 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 205

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN A CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE
DATA, THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65KT.

HONDE IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE WEST, INDUCING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, IS SLOWING THE MOVEMENT CONSIDERABLY,
POTENTIALLY MAKING THE TRAJECTORY QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN ERRATIC,
THIS WEEKEND. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, SPREAD AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS
BEGINS TO NARROW. THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD GRADUALLY PROMOTE A SOUTHEASTWARD TREND. THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF THE MAIN
GUIDANCES.

OVER THE WEEKEND, HONDE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MINIMUM INTENSITY THRESHOLD, WITH RATHER WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT BUT DECREASING OCEAN POTENTIAL. A MORE
PRONOUNCED WEAKENING COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY IF STATIONARY ( UNDERLYING
WATERS COOLING) AND DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY
MID-NEXT WEEK, HONDE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALES VERY LIKELY AND STORM FORCE POSSIBLE UP TO THE SATURDAY.
- RISK OF HEAVY RAIN GRADUALLY DECREASING UP TO MONDAY, 50 TO 100MM
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24HRS, 100 TO 300MM IN THE NEXT 72HRS ON
THE SOUTHERN COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS 4/6M UP TO MONDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010110
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/11/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.6 S / 44.8 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 465 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 335 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 400 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 335 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55

36H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 215 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 380 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SO: 445 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 45

72H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SO: 445 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/03/2025 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 435 SO: 350 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 55 NO: 35

120H: 06/03/2025 00 UTC: 36.8 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 470 SO: 360 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 205

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'HONDE A
PEU EVOLUE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALEMENT AU SEIN D'UNE
BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES FIABLES L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE EST MAINTENUE A 65KT.

HONDE SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD.
NEANMOINS, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE A L'OUEST, INDUISANT DES
FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, RALENTIT CONSIDERABLEMENT LE
MOUVEMENT, POUVANT RENDRE LA TRAJECTOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE VOIRE
ERRATIQUE, CE WEEK-END. LA DISPERSION A PARTIR DE LUNDI RESTE
COMMENCE A SE REDUIRE IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES NUMERIQUES. LE
GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU NORD-EST DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT FAVORISER UNE ORIENTATION AU SUD-EST. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS DES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

CE WEEK-END, HONDE DEVRAIT CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DU STADE
MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PLUTOT
FAIBLE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT MAIS EN BAISSE. UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS MARQUE POURRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE LUNDI EN CAS
DE STATIONNARITE (REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES) ET EN
RAISON D'UNE AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT. EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, HONDE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN S'ENFONCANT VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE, TEMPETE POSSIBLE JUSQU'A SAMEDI
- RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES PROGRESSIVEMENT EN BAISSE D'ICI LUNDI, 50 A
100MM ENCORE POSSIBLES DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, 100 A 300MM DANS LES
PROCHAINES 72H SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.
- MER TRES FORTE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 010046 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 01/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 44.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 12 UTC:
26.8 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
27.2 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 010030
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 01/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 44.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 12 UTC:
26.8 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
27.2 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 45.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 45.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.9S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.2S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.4S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.6S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.5S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.8S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 35.1S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 45.1E.
28FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOLIARA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z
IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(GARANCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281917
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/11/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 44.7 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 650 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 490 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 380 SW: 455 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 45

36H: 2025/03/02 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 380 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 415 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 295 SW: 480 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 480 SW: 530 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/04 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 545 SW: 490 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/05 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 555 SW: 390 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND HONDE'S CENTER HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED, WITH MORE PATCHY CONVECTION. LATE AFTERNOON
MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMRS 2 AND SSMIS) NEVERTHELESS SHOWED A TIGHTENING
OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE. THE 1436Z SMOS PASS AND, ABOVE ALL, THE 1542Z
SAR PASS SUGGEST THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL LOCALLY
PRESENT. INTENSITY WAS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT 65KT.

HONDE IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE WEST, INDUCING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, IS SLOWING THE MOVEMENT CONSIDERABLY,
POTENTIALLY MAKING THE TRAJECTORY QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN ERRATIC,
THIS WEEKEND. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, SPREAD AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS
BEGINS TO NARROW. THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD GRADUALLY PROMOTE A SOUTHEASTWARD TREND. THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF THE MAIN
GUIDANCES.

OVER THE WEEKEND, HONDE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MINIMUM INTENSITY THRESHOLD, WITH RATHER WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT BUT DECREASING OCEAN POTENTIAL. A MORE
PRONOUNCED WEAKENING COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY IF STATIONARY ( UNDERLYING
WATERS COOLING) AND DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY
MID-NEXT WEEK, HONDE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALES VERY LIKELY AND STORM FORCE POSSIBLE UP TO THE SATURDAY.
- RISK OF HEAVY RAIN GRADUALLY DECREASING UP TO MONDAY, 50 TO 100MM
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24HRS, 100 TO 300MM IN THE NEXT 72HRS ON
THE SOUTHERN COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS 4/6M UP TO MONDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281917
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/11/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.6 S / 44.7 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 650 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SO: 490 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

24H: 01/03/2025 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 380 SO: 455 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 45

36H: 02/03/2025 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SO: 380 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

48H: 02/03/2025 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 415 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 45

60H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 295 SO: 480 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 45

72H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 480 SO: 530 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/03/2025 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 545 SO: 490 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 45

120H: 05/03/2025 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 555 SO: 390 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AUTOUR DU
CENTRE DE HONDE A PERDU EN DEFINITION, AVEC UNE CONVECTION PLUS
MORCELE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (AMRS 2 ET SSMIS) DE LA FIN DE
JOURNEE MONTRAIENT CEPENDANT UNE CONTRACTION DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. LA
PASSE SMOS DE 1436Z ET SURTOUT LA PASSE SAR DE 1542Z SUGGERE QUE DES
VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN SONT ENCORE LOCALEMENT PRESENT. L'INTENSITE A
DONC ETE MAINTENUE A 65KT.

HONDE SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD.
NEANMOINS, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE A L'OUEST, INDUISANT DES
FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, RALENTIT CONSIDERABLEMENT LE
MOUVEMENT, POUVANT RENDRE LA TRAJECTOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE VOIRE
ERRATIQUE, CE WEEK-END. LA DISPERSION A PARTIR DE LUNDI RESTE
COMMENCE A SE REDUIRE IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES NUMERIQUES. LE
GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU NORD-EST DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT FAVORISER UNE ORIENTATION AU SUD-EST. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS DES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

CE WEEK-END, HONDE DEVRAIT CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DU STADE
MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PLUTOT
FAIBLE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT MAIS EN BAISSE. UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS MARQUEE POURRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE LUNDI EN CAS
DE STATIONNARITE (REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES) ET EN
RAISON D'UNE AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT. EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, HONDE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN S'ENFONCANT VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE, TEMPETE POSSIBLE JUSQU'A SAMEDI
- RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES PROGRESSIVEMENT EN BAISSE D'ICI LUNDI, 50 A
100MM ENCORE POSSIBLES DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, 100 A 300MM DANS LES
PROCHAINES 72H SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.
- MER TRES FORTE 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 281814
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 28/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 44.7 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 06 UTC:
26.9 S / 45.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 265 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 18 UTC:
27.1 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 281230
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 28/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 44.3 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN
THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 115 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 165
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 335 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 00 UTC:
26.6 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 280 NM NW: 175 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 12 UTC:
27.1 S / 45.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 43.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 43.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.3S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.5S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.7S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.0S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.5S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.3S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 32.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 44.0E.
28FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301
NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z
IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(GARANCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 280620
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 28/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 43.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN
THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 115 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 165
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 335 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 18 UTC:
26.2 S / 44.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 310 NM NW: 175 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 06 UTC:
26.4 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280144
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.6 S / 43.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 360 SW: 455 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 445 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/01 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SW: 520 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SW: 435 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 295 SW: 360 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

60H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 215 SW: 335 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 335 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/04 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 465 SW: 510 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/05 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 600 SW: 480 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

THE 18Z BESTRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED, GIVEN THE OBJECTIVE DATA RECEIVED
POINTING TO HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE SYSTEM. IN FACT, THE
RCM-3 DATA FROM 1535Z INDICATES LOW-LEVEL WINDS (10 MINUTES) OF THE
ORDER OF 65KT. SMOS DATA FROM 1519Z ALSO SHOWS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS.
THE PARTIAL ASCAT-B AT 18Z ALSO CONFIRMS STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER, OFF THE TULEAR COAST. WIND EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED ON THIS BASIS. HONDE HAS THEREFORE BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING.

HONDE IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST DUE TO WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LINKED TO A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS TRACK SHOULD
BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE OVER SOUTH-WEST AFRICA,
INDUCING CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, SHOULD SLOW THE MOVEMENT
CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY ONWARDS, POTENTIALLY RENDERING THE TRACK
FORCAST ALMOST STATIONARY OR EVEN ERRATIC. A LANDING OVER TULEAR
PROVINCE (SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR) IS NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDED IN VIEW OF
THE EPS PLUME. THE DISPERSION FROM D+3 REMAINS PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT BETWEEN DIGITAL MODELS, INDICATING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.

THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM COULD FLUCTUATE FOR 24/36 HOURS
WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, VERY GOOD
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE), SOMETIMES GENERATED BY MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO DEVELOP FURTHER. SHORT-TERM FORECASTS THEREFORE
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IN THE LONGER TERM, HONDE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WHILE MAINTAINING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM STATUS DUE TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHEAR AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE UNDERLYING WATERS (IN
THE EVENT OF STATIONARITY). THIS WILL DEPEND IN PARTICULAR ON THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK.

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE AND STORM FORCE VERY LIKELY UP TO THE WEEK-END.
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY (100-200MM / 72H) UP TO THE WEEK-END.
LOCALLY 500/600 MM/72H ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PROVINCE.
- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS 4/6M UP TO MONDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280144
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/11/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.6 S / 43.2 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 360 SO: 455 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SO: 445 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 01/03/2025 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SO: 520 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SO: 435 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

48H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 295 SO: 360 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

60H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 215 SO: 335 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SO: 335 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 465 SO: 510 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 45

120H: 05/03/2025 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 600 SO: 480 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SO: 305 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

LA BESTRACK DE 18Z A ETE AJUSTEE, COMPTE TENU DE LA RECEPTION DE
DONNEES OBJECTIVES POINTANT DES VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN AU SEIN DU
SYSTEME. EN EFFET, LA DONNEE RCM-3 DE 1535Z INDIQUE DES VENTS DA
BIAISES (10 MINUTES) DE L'ORDRE DE 65KT. LES DONNEES SMOS DE 1519Z
MONTRENT EGALEMENT DES VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN. L'ASCAT-B PARTIELLE DE
18Z CONFIRME EGALEMENT DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LE QUART
NORD-EST, PROCHE DE LA COTE DE TULEAR. LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT ONT
DONC ETE REACTUALISES SUR CETTE BASE. HONDE EST DONC DEVENU UN
CYCLONE TROPICAL DEPUIS HIER SOIR.

HONDE SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER LE SYSTEME A SE RAPPROCHER DES COTES
SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR D'ICI VENDREDI. NEANMOINS, LE RENFORCEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'AFRIQUE, INDUISANT DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, DEVRAIT RALENTIR CONSIDERABLEMENT LE
MOUVEMENT A PARTIR D'AUJOURD'HUI, POUVANT RENDRE LA TRAJECTOIRE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE VOIRE ERRATIQUE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA PROVINCE
DE TULEAR (SUD DE MADAGASCAR) N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT ECARTE AU VU DU
PANACHE DE L'EPS. LA DISPERSION A PARTIR DE J+3 RESTE PARTICULIERMENT
IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES NUMERIQUES, INDUISANT UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, AU SUD
DE MADAGASCAR

L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME POURRAIT FLUCTUER 24/36 HEURES AU SEIN
D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE(FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, TRES BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE), GENE PARFOIS PAR UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. TOUTEFOIS, LA GRANDE TAILLE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME POURRAIT
LIMITER SENSIBLEMENT LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME DE SE DEVELOPPER
DAVANTAGE. LA PREVISION A COURTE ECHEANCE RESTE DONC INCERTAINE. A
PLUS LONG TERME, HONDE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR TOUT EN SE MAINTENAINT A UN
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT EN
LEGERE HAUSSE ET D'UNE POSSIBLE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS
JACENTES (EN CAS DE STATIONNARITE). CELA DEPENDRA NOTAMMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT ET TEMPETE TRES PROBABLE JUSQU'EN COURS DE WEEK-END.
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES (100-200MM / 72H) JUSQU'EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, LOCALEMENT 500/600 MM / 72H SUR LA POINTE SUD DE LA
PROVINCE.
- MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DEPASSANT 4 A 6M JUSQU'A LUNDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 280020
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 28/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HONDE) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.6 S / 43.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 315 NM IN THE SOUTEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN
THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 195 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 245 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 12 UTC:
25.9 S / 44.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/01 AT 00 UTC:
26.2 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 280 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271934
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 42.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 83 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 325 SW: 465 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 205 SW: 280 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 435 SW: 400 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 510 SW: 480 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 305 SW: 380 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 360 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/02 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 35

72H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 345 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SW: 425 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/04 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 575 SW: 435 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S CLOUDY APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED, WITH
THE STRENGTHENING OF A CURVED BAND WRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE SSMIS-F17 MICROWAVE PASS AT
1546Z PRESENTS A BROAD STRUCTURE WITH AN RMW OF AROUND 45MN, NOT
NECESSARILY HELPING TO FIND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RELIABLY. THE MAIN
CLUSTER REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WITHOUT
REALLY APPROACHING THE CENTER. GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN AND
PENDING MORE RELIABLE ESTIMATES SUCH AS SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 60KT.

HONDE IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS DRIVEN BY A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS TRAJECTORY SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE
OVER SOUTH-WEST AFRICA, INDUCING CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, SHOULD
SLOW THE MOVEMENT FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, POTENTIALLY MAKING THE MOTION
QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN ERRATIC. A LANDING OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR
IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. LONG-RANGE SPREAD BETWEEN NUMERICAL
MODELS REMAIN PARTICULARLY HIGH, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE FORECAST TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST RANGE, SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR.

THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION COULD CARRY ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR). HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM'S INNER CORE, ITS CAPACITY TO INTENSIFY COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED. SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IN THE LONG TERM,
HONDE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT REMAIN AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DUE
TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE
UNDERLYING WATERS (IF STATIONARY). THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE AND STORM FORCE VERY LIKELY UP TO THE WEEK-END.
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY (100-200MM / 72H) UP TO THE WEEK-END.
LOCALLY 500/600 MM/72H ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PROVINCE.
- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS 4/6M UP TO MONDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271934
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.3 S / 42.6 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 83 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 325 SO: 465 NO: 465
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 205 SO: 280 NO: 250
48 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2025 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 435 SO: 400 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 28/02/2025 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 510 SO: 480 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 01/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 305 SO: 380 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 01/03/2025 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SO: 360 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 0

60H: 02/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 35

72H: 02/03/2025 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SO: 345 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SO: 425 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 45

120H: 04/03/2025 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 575 SO: 435 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'APPARENCE NUAGEUSE DE HONDE S'EST
AMELIOREE AVEC UNE NOUVELLE BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD AUTOUR D'UN LARGE CENTRE. AU VU DE CETTE AMELIORATION
ET EN ATTENDANT DES ESTIMATIONS PLUS FIABLES, L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 60KT

HONDE SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER LE SYSTEME A SE RAPPROCHER DES COTES
SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR D'ICI VENDREDI. NEANMOINS, LE RENFORCEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'AFRIQUE, INDUISANT DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, DEVRAIT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, POUVANT RENDRE LA TRAJECTOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE VOIRE
ERRATIQUE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR N'EST PAS
COMPLETEMENT ECARTE. LA DISPERSION A LONGUE ECHEANCE RESTE
PARTICULIERMENT IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES NUMERIQUES, INDUISANT
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR

L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME POURRAIT SE POURSUIVRE DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24H AU SEIN D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE(FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT).
TOUTEFOIS, LA GRANDE TAILLE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LIMITER
SENSIBLEMENT LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME DE SE DEVELOPPER. LA PREVISION A
COURTE ECHEANCE RESTE DONC INCERTAINE. A PLUS LONG TERME, HONDE
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR TOUT EN SE MAINTENAINT A UN STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT EN LEGERE HAUSSE ET D'UNE
POSSIBLE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES (EN CAS DE
STATIONNARITE). CELA DEPENDRA NOTAMMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT ET TEMPETE TRES PROBABLE JUSQU'EN COURS DE WEEK-END
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES (100-300MM / 24H) JUSQU'EN COURS DE
WEEK-END
- MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DEPASSANT 4 A 8M JUSQU'A LUNDI=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 271823
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 27/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 42.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 370 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 285 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 06 UTC:
25.8 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 18 UTC:
26.0 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271321
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 42.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 325 SW: 465 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 205 SW: 280 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/28 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 390 SW: 390 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 455 SW: 435 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/01 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 345 SW: 400 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 55

72H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SW: 335 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/04 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 650 SW: 435 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 425 SW: 325 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S CLOUDY APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED, WITH A
NEW CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. IN VIEW OF THIS IMPROVEMENT AND PENDING MORE RELIABLE
ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 60KT.

HONDE IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS DRIVEN BY A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS TRAJECTORY SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE
OVER SOUTH-WEST AFRICA, INDUCING CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, SHOULD
SLOW THE MOVEMENT FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, POTENTIALLY MAKING THE MOTION
QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN ERRATIC. A LANDING OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR
IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. LONG-RANGE SPREAD BETWEEN NUMERICAL
MODELS REMAIN PARTICULARLY HIGH, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE FORECAST TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST RANGE, SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR.

THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION COULD CARRY ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR). HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM'S INNER CORE, ITS CAPACITY TO INTENSIFY COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED. SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IN THE LONG TERM,
HONDE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT REMAIN AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DUE
TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE
UNDERLYING WATERS (IF STATIONARY). THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE AND STORM FORCE VERY LIKELY UP TO THE WEEK-END.
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY (100-300MM / 24H) UP TO THE WEEK-END.
- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS 4/8M UP TO MONDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271321
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.1 S / 42.1 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 325 SO: 465 NO: 465
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 205 SO: 280 NO: 250
48 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2025 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 390 SO: 390 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 455 SO: 435 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 01/03/2025 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 345 SO: 400 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

48H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 305 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55

60H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 55

72H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SO: 335 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SO: 390 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 45

120H: 04/03/2025 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 650 SO: 435 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 425 SO: 325 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'APPARENCE NUAGEUSE DE HONDE S'EST
AMELIOREE AVEC UNE NOUVELLE BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD AUTOUR D'UN LARGE CENTRE. AU VU DE CETTE AMELIORATION
ET EN ATTENDANT DES ESTIMATIONS PLUS FIABLES, L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 60KT

HONDE SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER LE SYSTEME A SE RAPPROCHER DES COTES
SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR D'ICI VENDREDI. NEANMOINS, LE RENFORCEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'AFRIQUE, INDUISANT DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, DEVRAIT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, POUVANT RENDRE LA TRAJECTOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE VOIRE
ERRATIQUE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR N'EST PAS
COMPLETEMENT ECARTE. LA DISPERSION A LONGUE ECHEANCE RESTE
PARTICULIERMENT IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES NUMERIQUES, INDUISANT
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR

L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME POURRAIT SE POURSUIVRE DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24H AU SEIN D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE(FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT).
TOUTEFOIS, LA GRANDE TAILLE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LIMITER
SENSIBLEMENT LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME DE SE DEVELOPPER. LA PREVISION A
COURTE ECHEANCE RESTE DONC INCERTAINE. A PLUS LONG TERME, HONDE
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR TOUT EN SE MAINTENAINT A UN STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT EN LEGERE HAUSSE ET D'UNE
POSSIBLE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES (EN CAS DE
STATIONNARITE). CELA DEPENDRA NOTAMMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT ET TEMPETE TRES PROBABLE JUSQU'EN COURS DE WEEK-END
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES (100-300MM / 24H) JUSQU'EN COURS DE
WEEK-END
- MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DEPASSANT 4 A 8M JUSQU'A LUNDI=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 271229
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 27/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 42.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 285 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 00 UTC:
25.6 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 12 UTC:
26.0 S / 44.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 185 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 24.9S 41.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 41.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 25.4S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 25.9S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.2S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.4S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.0S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.0S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.8S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 41.8E.
27FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 57 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z AND 280900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270730
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 325 SW: 465 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 175 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/27 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 335 SW: 445 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 240 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 370 SW: 400 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 510 SW: 510 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 360 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/02 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 295 SW: 335 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/04 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 545 SW: 445 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 345 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S APPEARANCE HAS DETERIORATED, WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING A BROAD SURFACE CENTER, AS
SHOWN BY THIS MORNING MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE ESTIMATES INCLUDE 50 TO 55KT WITH A
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AND 55KT WITH A PARTIAL SMAP PASS. THE INTENSITY
IS MAINTAINED AT 60KT PENDING BETTER DATA.

HONDE IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS DRIVEN BY A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS TRAJECTORY SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE
OVER SOUTH-WEST AFRICA, INDUCING CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, SHOULD
SLOW THE MOVEMENT FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, POTENTIALLY MAKING THE MOTION
QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN ERRATIC. A LANDING OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR
IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. LONG-RANGE SPREAD BETWEEN NUMERICAL
MODELS REMAIN PARTICULARLY HIGH, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE FORECAST TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST RANGE, SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR.

THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION COULD CARRY ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR). HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM'S INNER CORE, ITS CAPACITY TO INTENSIFY COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED. SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IN THE LONG TERM,
HONDE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT REMAIN AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DUE
TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE
UNDERLYING WATERS (IF STATIONARY). THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE AND STORM FORCE VERY LIKELY UP TO THE WEEK-END.
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY (100-300MM / 24H) UP TO THE WEEK-END.
- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS 4/8M UP TO MONDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270730
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.6 S / 41.2 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 80 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 325 SO: 465 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 195 SO: 280 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 175 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 335 SO: 445 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 240 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 28/02/2025 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 370 SO: 400 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 28/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 510 SO: 510 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 01/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SO: 370 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 01/03/2025 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SO: 360 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 45

72H: 02/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 295 SO: 335 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SO: 360 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 0

120H: 04/03/2025 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 545 SO: 445 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SO: 345 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 90 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0- CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'APPARENCE DE HONDE S'EST DEGRADEE
AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE MORCELEE AUTOUR D'UN VASTE CENTRE DE
SURFACE COMME LE MONTRE LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA MATINEE.
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE RESTE INCERTAINE. PARMI LES ESTIMATIONS
SATELLITES, ON PEUT NOTER, 50 A 55KT AVEC UNE PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE
ET 55KT AVEC UNE PASSE SMAP PARTIELLE. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A
60KT EN ATTENDANT DE MEILLEURES DONNEES.

HONDE SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER LE SYSTEME A SE RAPPROCHER DES COTES
SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR D'ICI VENDREDI. NEANMOINS, LE RENFORCEMENT
D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'AFRIQUE, INDUISANT DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, DEVRAIT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, POUVANT RENDRE LA TRAJECTOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE VOIRE
ERRATIQUE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR N'EST PAS
COMPLETEMENT ECARTE. LA DISPERSION A LONGUE ECHEANCE RESTE
PARTICULIERMENT IMPORTANTE ENTRE LES MODELES NUMERIQUES, INDUISANT
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR

L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME POURRAIT SE POURSUIVRE DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24H AU SEIN D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE(FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT).
TOUTEFOIS, LA GRANDE TAILLE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LIMITER
SENSIBLEMENT LA CAPACITE DU SYSTEME DE SE DEVELOPPER. LA PREVISION A
COURTE ECHEANCE RESTE DONC INCERTAINE. A PLUS LONG TERME, HONDE
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR TOUT EN SE MAINTENAINT A UN STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT EN LEGERE HAUSSE ET D'UNE
POSSIBLE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES (EN CAS DE
STATIONNARITE). CELA DEPENDRE NOTAMMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT ET TEMPETE TRES PROBABLE JUSQU'EN COURS DE WEEK-END
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES (100-300MM / 24H) JUSQU'EN COURS DE
WEEK-END
- MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DEPASSANT 4 A 8M JUSQU'A LUNDI=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 270627
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 27/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 205 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 18 UTC:
25.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 175 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 06 UTC:
25.5 S / 43.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 200 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 270021
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 27/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 40.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 400 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 145
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 12 UTC:
24.8 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 195 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/28 AT 00 UTC:
25.2 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 195 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTXS33 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 24.0S 39.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 39.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.5S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.9S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 25.2S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.6S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.1S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.7S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.1S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 40.2E.
26FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z AND 272100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261936
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 39.8 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 695 SE: 465 SW: 250 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/27 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/27 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 405 SW: 445 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75

120H: 2025/03/03 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 335 SW: 345 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 90

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE
CURVED. THE GPM GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1648Z SHOWS CONVECTION
ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, BUT WITH A VERY WIDE RING. IT EVOLVES
RIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN CENTER OF THE CHANNEL, IN THE MIDST OF WARM
WATERS THAT WILL ALLOW IT TO INTENSIFY. THE SAR PASS AT 1558Z
MEASURES WINDS OF 50-60KT, WHILE THE ASCAT PASS AT 1821Z MEASURES
50KT. THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE CI AT 4.0, CORRESPONDING
TO WINDS OF 55KT, WHEREAS THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE MORE BETWEEN 40
AND 50KT. IN THE END, THE 55KT VALUE IS USED FOR THE AVERAGE WIND
INTENSITY.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINKED TO A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE SOUTH-WEST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE
OVER SOUTH-WEST AFRICA, INDUCING CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, SHOULD
SLOW THE MOVEMENT FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, POTENTIALLY RENDERING THE
TRACK QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN ERRATIC. A LANDING OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. NEVERTHELESS, THE
DISPERSION BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, LEADING TO A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL
THURSDAY, THANKS IN PARTICULAR TO A SURGE OF TRADE WINDS, COMBINED
WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, VERY GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR). THE SYSTEM'S
LARGE SIZE NO LONGER SEEMS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON HOW QUICKLY IT
INTENSIFIES, GIVEN ITS DISTANCE FROM THE MOZAMBICAN MAINLAND.
NUMERICAL MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG DISPERSION IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE INTEGRATION OF THIS MORNING'S ASCAT COULD
REDUCE THIS DISPERSION. THE RSMC FORECAST OPTS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION
TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE APPROACHING THE MALAGASY COASTS.
A WEAKENING IS THEN LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT
OF THE SYSTEM'S QUASI-STATIONARITY, WHICH COULD COOL SURFACE WATERS,
POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LANDMASS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE VERY LIKELY BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY, STORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY
/ SATURDAY
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY (100-200MM / 24H) FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4/5M FROM THURSDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING 6-8M FROM
THURSDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261936
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.9 S / 39.8 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 695 SE: 465 SO: 250 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2025 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 360 SO: 360 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 55

24H: 27/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 28/02/2025 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SO: 360 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 28/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 405 SO: 445 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 01/03/2025 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 315 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 01/03/2025 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2025 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75

120H: 03/03/2025 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 335 SO: 345 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 90

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ENROULEMENT DE LA STRUCTURE
NUAGEUSE S'EST ENCORE AMELIORE, AVEC DE BELLES COURBURES. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES GMI GPM DE 1648Z MONTRE UNE CONVECTION QUI TENTE DE
S'ORGANISEE MAIS AVEC UN ANNEAU TRES LARGE. IL EVOLUE EN PLEIN CENTRE
SUD DU CANAL AU MILIEU DES EAUX CHAUDES QUI VONT LUI PERMETTRE DE
S'INTENSIFIER. LA PASSE SAR DE 1558Z MESURE DES VENTS DE 50-60KT
ALORS QUE LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1821Z MESURE DU 50KT. L'ANALYSES
SUBJECTIVE ESTIME LE CI A 4.0 CORRESPONDANT A DES VENTS DE 55KT,
ALORS QUE LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES SONT PLUTOT ENTRE 40 ET 50KT. C'EST
FINALEMENT LA VALEUR DE 55KT QUI EST RETENUE POUR L'INTENSITE DES
VENTS MOYENS.

LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ORIENTE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT
PLUS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER LE SYSTEME A SE
RAPPROCHER DES COTES SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR D'ICI VENDREDI.
NEANMOINS, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE
L'AFRIQUE, INDUISANT DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, DEVRAIT
RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, POUVANT RENDRE LA
TRAJECTOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE VOIRE ERRATIQUE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR
LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT ECARTE. NEANMOINS, LA
DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES NUMERIQUES RESTE IMPORTANTE, INDUISANT
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR

L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE AU MOINS JUSQU'A
JEUDI, NOTAMMENT GRACE A UNE POUSSEE D'ALIZE, S'AJOUTANT A DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES TRES FAVORABLES (FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT). LA
GRANDE TAILLE DU SYSTEME NE SEMBLE PLUS ETRE UN FACTEUR LIMITANT SUR
LA RAPIDITE D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME, EN RAISON DE SON
ELOIGNEMENT DES TERRES MOZOBICAINES. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES MONTRENT
TOUJOURS UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, NEANMOINS
L'INTEGRATION DE L'ASCAT DE CE MATIN POURRAIT REDUIRE CETTE
DISPERSION. LA PREVISION DU CMRS OPTE POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT D'APPROCHER LES COTES
MALGACHES. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST ENSUITE PROBABLE EN COURS DE
WEEK-END SOUS L'EFFET COMBINE DE LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE DU SYSTEME
POUVANT REFROIDIR LES EAUX DE SURFACE, D'UNE EVENTUELLE INTERACTION
AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES ET D'UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE ENTRE JEUDI ET DIMANCHE, TEMPETE
POSSIBLE VENDREDI / SAMEDI
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES (100-200MM / 24H) DE JEUDI A SAMEDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4/5M A PARTIR DE JEUDI, POUVANT ATTEINDRE 6-8M A
PARTIR DE JEUDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 261839
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/02/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 39.8 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 360 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 375 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 06 UTC:
24.5 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 265 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 175 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 18 UTC:
25.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 225 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261336
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 39.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 695 SE: 465 SW: 250 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/27 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

24H: 2025/02/27 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/02/28 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 325 SW: 390 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/03/01 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/03/01 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/02 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2025/03/03 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CURLED UP NICELY. THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SURROUNDING LAND,
WHICH TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ENABLE THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY. WIND EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
THANKS TO THE ASCAT-C PASS AT 0555Z, WITH AN AVERAGE MAXIMUM WIND OF
45KT. THE ANIMATION OF THE MORNING'S MICROWAVE PASSES, ESPECIALLY THE
AMSR2 PASS AT 1130Z, SHOWED A SYMMETRIZATION OF THE STRUCTURE. AS A
RESULT, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50KT.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINKED TO A TROUGH PASSING FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE SOUTH-WEST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE
OVER SOUTH-WEST AFRICA, INDUCING CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, SHOULD
SLOW THE MOVEMENT FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, POTENTIALLY RENDERING THE
TRACK QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN ERRATIC. A LANDING OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. NEVERTHELESS, THE
DISPERSION BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, LEADING TO A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL
THURSDAY, THANKS IN PARTICULAR TO A SURGE OF TRADE WINDS, COMBINED
WITH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, VERY GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR). THE SYSTEM'S
LARGE SIZE NO LONGER SEEMS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON HOW QUICKLY IT
INTENSIFIES, GIVEN ITS DISTANCE FROM THE MOZAMBICAN MAINLAND.
NUMERICAL MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG DISPERSION IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE INTEGRATION OF THIS MORNING'S ASCAT COULD
REDUCE THIS DISPERSION. THE RSMC FORECAST OPTS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION
TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE APPROACHING THE MALAGASY COASTS.
A WEAKENING IS THEN LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT
OF THE SYSTEM'S QUASI-STATIONARITY, WHICH COULD COOL SURFACE WATERS,
POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LANDMASS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE VERY LIKELY BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY, STORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY
/ SATURDAY
- HEAVY RAIN LIKELY (100-200MM / 24H) FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4/5M FROM THURSDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING 6-8M FROM
THURSDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261336
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/11/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.8 S / 39.4 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 695 SE: 465 SO: 250 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2025 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SO: 360 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55

24H: 27/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 350 SO: 335 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 28/02/2025 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 380 SO: 335 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 325 SO: 390 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 01/03/2025 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 01/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 280 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 03/03/2025 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 280 SO: 335 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ON NOTE UN BEL ENROULEMENT DE LA
STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE, AVEC DE BELLES COURBURES. LE SYSTEME COMMENCE
EGALEMENT A S'ELOIGNER DES TERRES ENVIRONNANTES, CE QUI AVEC LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DE QUALITE VONT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE
NETTEMENT S'INTENSIFIER. LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT ONT PU ETRE
REACTUALISEES GRACE A LA PASSE ASCAT-C DE 0555Z, PRESENTANT UN VENT
MOYEN MAXIMAL DE 45KT. LA CINEMATIQUE DES PASSES MICRO-ONDES DE LA
MATINEE ET SURTOUT LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 1130Z, MONTRE UNE SYMETRISATION
DE LA STRUCTURE DE HONDE. EN CONSEQUENCE, L'INTENSITE EST PORTEE A
50KT.

LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ORIENTE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT
PLUS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT AMENER LE SYSTEME A SE
RAPPROCHER DES COTES SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR D'ICI VENDREDI.
NEANMOINS, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE
L'AFRIQUE, INDUISANT DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, DEVRAIT
RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, POUVANT RENDRE LA
TRAJECTOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE VOIRE ERRATIQUE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR
LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT ECARTE. NEANMOINS, LA
DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES NUMERIQUES RESTE IMPORTANTE, INDUISANT
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR

L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE AU MOINS JUSQU'A
JEUDI, NOTAMMENT GRACE A UNE POUSSEE D'ALIZE, S'AJOUTANT A DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES TRES FAVORABLES (FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT). LA
GRANDE TAILLE DU SYSTEME NE SEMBLE PLUS ETRE UN FACTEUR LIMITANT SUR
LA RAPIDITE D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME, EN RAISON DE SON
ELOIGNEMENT DES TERRES MOZOBICAINES. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES MONTRENT
TOUJOURS UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, NEANMOINS
L'INTEGRATION DE L'ASCAT DE CE MATIN POURRAIT REDUIRE CETTE
DISPERSION. LA PREVISION DU CMRS OPTE POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT D'APPROCHER LES COTES
MALGACHES. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST ENSUITE PROBABLE EN COURS DE
WEEK-END SOUS L'EFFET COMBINE DE LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE DU SYSTEME
POUVANT REFROIDIR LES EAUX DE SURFACE, D'UNE EVENTUELLE INTERACTION
AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES ET D'UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE ENTRE JEUDI ET DIMANCHE, TEMPETE
POSSIBLE VENDREDI / SAMEDI
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES (100-200MM / 24H) DE JEUDI A SAMEDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4/5M A PARTIR DE JEUDI, POUVANT ATTEINDRE 6-8M A
PARTIR DE JEUDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 261212
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/02/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 39.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 360 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 375 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 00 UTC:
24.4 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 12 UTC:
24.9 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260754
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 38.8 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/26 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 335 SW: 405 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 65

24H: 2025/02/27 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2025/02/27 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 370 SW: 345 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 325 SW: 370 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SW: 380 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/03/01 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/02 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 120

120H: 2025/03/03 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, HONDE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED,
TAKING ON MORE CURVATURE, WHICH HAS LED TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THE NUMBER OF DVORAK T/CI (+1 IN 6H), IN LINE WITH THE 0555Z ASCAT-C
WITH 45KT (10-MINUTE WINDS) IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS,
DUE TO WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINKED TO A TROUGH PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE
SOUTH-WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING
OF A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, INDUCING CONTRADICTORY STEERING
FLOWS, SHOULD SLOW THE MOVEMENT FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, POSSIBLY
RENDERING THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY. A LANDING OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. NEVERTHELESS, THE
DISPERSION BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS IS VERY HIGH, LEADING TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FORECAST TRAJECTORY AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL
THURSDAY, THANKS IN PARTICULAR TO A BURST OF TRADE WINDS, IN ADDITION
TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL,
VERY GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR). THE SYSTEM'S LARGE SIZE NO
LONGER SEEMS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON HOW QUICKLY IT INTENSIFIES,
GIVEN ITS DISTANCE FROM THE MOZAMBICAN MAINLAND. NUMERICAL MODELS
ALWAYS SHOW A STRONG DISPERSION ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM,
NEVERTHELESS THE INTEGRATION OF THIS MORNING'S ASCAT COULD REDUCE
THIS DISPERSION. THE RSCM FORECAST OPTS FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH
TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE APPROACHING THE MALAGASY
COAST. A WEAKENING IS THEN LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND, DUE TO THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF THE SYSTEM'S QUASI-STATIONARITY, WHICH COULD COOL
SURFACE WATERS, POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LANDMASS AND
AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE :
- WAVES UP TO 4 TO 5 M UNTIL FRIDAY ALONG THE COASTS OF INHAMBANE AND
GAZA PROVINCES.

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY,
STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY (100-200MM / 24H) FROM THURSDAY UNTIL
SATURDAY.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING 6-8M FROM
THURSDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260754
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/11/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 38.8 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SO: 0 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2025 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 335 SO: 405 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 65

24H: 27/02/2025 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 27/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 370 SO: 345 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 28/02/2025 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 325 SO: 370 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 28/02/2025 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SO: 380 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 01/03/2025 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2025 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 120

120H: 03/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HONDE
S'EST NETTEMENT AMELIOREE EN ADOPTANT DAVANTAGE DE COURBURE, CE QU A
PERMIS DE MONTER NETTEMENT A LA HAUSSE LE NOMBRE T/CI DE DVORAK (+1
EN 6H), EN COHERENCE AVEC L'ASCAT-C DE 0555Z PRESENTANT DU 45KT
(VENTS 10 MINUTES) DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST.

LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ORIENTE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST POUR LES
PROCHAINES 48-72H SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT AMENER LE SYSTEME A SE RAPPROCHER DES COTES SUD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR D'ICI VENDREDI. NEANMOINS, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE
SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE, INDUISANT DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES, DEVRAIT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT A PARTIR DE VENDREDI,
POUVANT RENDRE LE SYSTEME QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE
SUD DE MADAGASCAR N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT A EXCLURE. NEANMOINS, LA
DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES NUMERIQUES EST TRES FORTE, INDUISANT UNE
FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE AU MOINS JUSQU'A
JEUDI, NOTAMMENT GRACE A UNE POUSSEE D'ALIZE, S'AJOUTANT A DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES TRES FAVORABLES (FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT). LA
GRANDE TAILLE DU SYSTEME NE SEMBLE PLUS ETRE UN FACTEUR LIMITANT SUR
LA RAPIDITE D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME, EN RAISON DE SON
ELOIGNEMENT DES TERRES MOZOBICAINES. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES MONTRENT
TOUJOURS UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, NEANMOINS
L'INTEGRATION DE L'ASCAT DE CE MATIN POURRAIT REDUIRE CETTE
DISPERSION. LA PREVISION DU CMRS OPTE POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT D'APPROCHER LES COTES
MALGACHES. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST ENSUITE PROBABLE EN COURS DE
WEEK-END SOUS L'EFFET COMBINE DE LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE DU SYSTEME
POUVANT REFROIDIR LES EAUX DE SURFACE, D'UNE EVENTUELLE INTERACTION
AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES ET D'UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MOZAMBIQUE :
- VAGUES POUVANT ATTEINDRE 4 A 5 M JUSQU'A VENDREDI SUR LES COTES DES
PROVINCES D'INHAMBANE ET DE GAZA.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE ENTRE JEUDI ET SAMEDI, TEMPETE POSSIBLE
VENDREDI.
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES (100-200MM / 24H) DE JEUDI A SAMEDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, POUVANT ATTEINDRE 6-8M A
PARTIR DE JEUDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 260624
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/02/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 38.8 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 190 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 280 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 18 UTC:
24.2 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 06 UTC:
24.7 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 185 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260158
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/02/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 38.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 165

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/26 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 315 SW: 360 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 165

24H: 2025/02/27 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 285 SW: 350 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2025/02/27 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 270 SW: 360 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/02/28 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2025/02/28 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2025/03/01 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/02 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 120

120H: 2025/03/03 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, SYSTEM 11-20242025'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS KEPT
IMPROVING, WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRICAL AND ORGANIZING INTO A CURVED BAND PATTERN. CONVECTION HAS
ALSO MOVED CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z. AN ASCAT-C PASS AT 1936Z SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, WITH A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION.
EUROPA ISLAND'S WEATHER STATION, LOCATED IN THE SYSTEM'S EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, MEASURED AVERAGE WINDS EXCEEDING 35 KT FOR SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE HOURS. ALL THESE OBSERVATIONS HAVE LED TO THE NAMING OF
SYSTEM "HONDE" AT 00Z BY MADAGASCAR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, WITH
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT BUT LOCALLY REACHING 40 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 48-72H, DUE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RELATED TO A TROUGH PASSING TO THE
SOUTH. THIS TRACK COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, INDUCING CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, SHOULD
SLOW THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, POSSIBLY MAKING IT
QUASI-STATIONARY. LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IS NOT
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER, DISPERSION AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS IS
VERY HIGH, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK
FORECAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION SHOULD GO ON AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY BY
WEDNESDAY, HELPED BY A TRADE WIND SURGE, COMBINED WITH OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (STRONG OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, VERY
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW WIND SHEAR). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM'S LARGE
SIZE COULD LIMIT THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT
TERM. NUMERICAL MODELS DISPLAY HIGH DISPERSION ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSITY DEPENDING ON THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION'S MORE OR LESS RAPID
CONSOLIDATION. THIS LEADS TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. THE RSMC FORECAST EXPECTS INTENSIFICATION UP TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE APPROACHING THE MALAGASY COAST. A WEAKENING IS
THEN LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE
SYSTEM'S QUASI-STATIONARITY, WHICH MAY COOL SURFACE WATERS THROUGH
UPWELLING, POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LANDMASS, AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR.

IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE :
- WAVES UP TO 4 TO 5 M UNTIL FRIDAY ALONG THE COASTS OF INHAMBANE AND
GAZA PROVINCES.

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY,
STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY (100-200MM / 24H) FROM THURSDAY UNTIL
SATURDAY.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING 6-8M FROM
THURSDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260158
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/11/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (HONDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/02/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.0 S / 38.4 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SO: 0 NO: 165

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2025 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 315 SO: 360 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 165

24H: 27/02/2025 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 285 SO: 350 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 27/02/2025 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 270 SO: 360 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 250
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 28/02/2025 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 28/02/2025 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 260 SO: 285 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 01/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 120

120H: 03/03/2025 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME
11-20242025 A CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EN
HAUSSE, DEVENANT PLUS SYMETRIQUE ET S'ORGANISANT EN BANDE INCURVEE.
LA CONVECTION S'EST DE PLUS EN PLUS RAPPROCHEE DU NORD DU CENTRE UN
PEU AVANT 00Z. UNE PASSE ASCAT-C A 1936Z MONTRE LA PRESENCE DE COUP
DE VENT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST, AVEC UNE CIRCULATION TRES LARGE.
LA STATION METEOROLOGIQUE DE L'ILE D'EUROPA, SITUEE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST, A MESURE DES VENTS MOYENS DEPASSANT 35 KT PENDANT
PLUSIEURS HEURES CONSECUTIVES. L'ENSEMBLE DE CES OBSERVATIONS A
CONDUIT AU BAPTEME DU SYSTEME A 00Z PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE
MALGACHE, PRENANT DONC LE NOM DE "HONDE" AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 35
KT MAIS POUVANT LOCALEMENT ATTEINDRE 40 KT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST.

LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ORIENTE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST POUR LES
PROCHAINES 48-72H SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE LIEE A UN TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT AMENER LE SYSTEME A SE RAPPROCHER DES COTES SUD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR D'ICI VENDREDI. NEANMOINS, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE DORSALE
SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE, INDUISANT DES FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES, DEVRAIT RALENTIR LE MOUVEMENT A PARTIR DE VENDREDI,
POUVANT RENDRE LE SYSTEME QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE
SUD DE MADAGASCAR N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT A EXCLURE. NEANMOINS, LA
DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES NUMERIQUES EST TRES FORTE, INDUISANT UNE
FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE AU MOINS JUSQU'A
VENDREDI, NOTAMMENT GRACE A UNE POUSSEE D'ALIZE, S'AJOUTANT A DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES (FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT). LA GRANDE
TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS LIMITER LA RAPIDITE
D'INTENSIFICATION, AU MOINS A COURT TERME. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES
MONTRENT UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, DEPENDANT
DE LA CONSOLIDATION PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES. CELA CONDUIT A UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS OPTE POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT D'APPROCHER LES COTES MALGACHES. UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST ENSUITE PROBABLE EN COURS DE WEEK-END SOUS
L'EFFET COMBINE DE LA QUASI-STATIONNARITE DU SYSTEME POUVANT
REFROIDIR LES EAUX DE SURFACE, D'UNE EVENTUELLE INTERACTION AVEC LES
TERRES MALGACHES ET D'UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MOZAMBIQUE :
- VAGUES POUVANT ATTEINDRE 4 A 5 M JUSQU'A VENDREDI SUR LES COTES DES
PROVINCES D'INHAMBANE ET DE GAZA.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE ENTRE JEUDI ET SAMEDI, TEMPETE POSSIBLE
VENDREDI.
- FORTES PLUIES PROBABLES (100-200MM / 24H) DE JEUDI A SAMEDI.
- VAGUES DEPASSANT 4M A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, POUVANT ATTEINDRE 6-8M A
PARTIR DE JEUDI.=

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 260026
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 38.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/26 AT 12 UTC:
23.9 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 90 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/27 AT 00 UTC:
24.5 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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