Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for JUDE-25
in Mozambique, Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 26.4S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.0S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 54.4E.
16MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EASTWARD AND
POLEWARD. A 160444Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS OF
40-45 KTS, WHILE ASSISTING WITH CURRENT POSITION ASSESSMENT TO THE
WEST OF THIS PARTIAL PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
ALREADY LOCATED WITHIN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH COOLING
(26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG (40+ KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANSITIONING INTO AN
ASYMMETRIC COLD CORE LOW AS IT TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 993 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160024
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/12/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.0 S / 51.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 30 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 965 SW: 815 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 455 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 70 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 870 SW: 630 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 350 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/17 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 845 SW: 650 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 370 NW: 120





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED SHEARED, BUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE COLDEST ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FLOW CONVERGENCE AXIS,
WHICH IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS, WHILE THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
WARMED UP CONSIDERABLY AS A RESULT OF WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR ALOFT. THE ASCAT PASSES NEAR 18UTC DO NOT ALLOW US TO SPECIFY
THE WIND STRUCTURE NEAR THE CENTER, BUT THEY DO POINT TO AN ELONGATED
AND OPEN STRUCTURE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE GCOM-W
PASS AT 2131UTC CONFIRMS THIS OPEN STRUCTURE AND REVEALS A CLEAR
ACCELERATION IN THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SHIFT DUE TO THIS ELONGATED
CIRCULATION. IN THIS GROWING BAROCLINIC CONTEXT, MERGING WITH THE
TROUGH TRANSITING SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES, JUDE IS CLASSIFIED AS A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 55KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, JUDE IS ACCELERATING BUT REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS,
MERGING THIS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES. IN THIS CONTEXT, THERE IS NO LONGER ANY NEED TO MONITOR
THE SYSTEM IN THE LONGER TERM.

IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD INITIALLY
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY BUT RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS,
BEFORE GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS,
VERY STRONG WINDS REACHING STORM LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION UNTIL SUNDAY, DUE TO BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION AND THE GRADIENT EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- WAVES OF 4-6M LASTING UNTIL MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.


LAST BULLETIN DUE TO LOSS OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ISSUED BY RSMC
LA REUNION REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20
FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160024
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/12/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.0 S / 51.9 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 30 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 965 SO: 815 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 455 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 70 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/03/2025 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 870 SO: 630 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SO: 350 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 0

24H: 17/03/2025 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 845 SO: 650 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 370 NO: 120





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AU COURS DE 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST RESTEE
CISAILLEE MAIS L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A BEAUCOUP EVOLUE. L'ACTIVITE LA
PLUS FROIDE SE SITUE DANS LA QUADRANT NORD-EST DANS L'AXE DE
CONVERGENCE DE FLUX QUI REMONTE VERS LE NORD-EST ALORS QUE LE RESTE
DE L'ACTIVITE S'EST BIEN RECHAUFFE DU FAIT DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET
DE L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN ALTITUDE. LES PASSES ASCAT PROCHE DE
18UTC NE PERMETTENT PAS DE PRECISER LA STRUCTURE DE VENT PROCHE DU
CENTRE MAIS ELLES DENOTENT UNE STRUCTURE ALLONGEE ET OUVERTE ASSEZ
LOIN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. LA PASSE GCOM-W DE 2131UTC CONFIRME
CETTE STRUCTURE OUVERTE ET PERMET DE NOTER UNE NETTE ACCELERATION
DANS LE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST DU FAIT DE CET ELONGATION DE
CIRCULATION. DANS CE CONTEXTE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANT ET FUSIONNANT
AVEC LE TALWEG CIRCULANT AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, JUDE EST CLASSEE EN
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE AVEC DES VENT ESTIMES A 55KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JUDE ACCELERE MAIS RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST ET D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU
SUD. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST
EN FUSIONNANT CE DIMANCHE AVEC UN FRONT FROID CIRCULANT AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE SUIVI DU SYSTEME N'A PLUS LIEU
D'ETRE AUX ECHEANCES PLUS LOINTAINES.

DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT D'ABORD
MAINTENIR SON INTENSITE MAIS PERDRE RAPIDEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES PUIS PROGRESSIVEMENT FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID
DIMANCHE. NEANMOINS, DES VENTS TRES FORTS ATTEIGNANT LE SEUIL DE LA
TEMPETE DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A CONCERNER LA PARTIE SUD DE LA
CIRCULATION JUSQU'A DIMANCHE PAR INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET PAR EFFET
DE GRADIENT.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- VAGUES DE 4-6M PERDURANT JUSQU'A LUNDI SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.


DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE SYSTEME
DU FAIT DE SA PERTE DE CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. DES INFORMATIONS
COMPLEMENTAIRES SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN
QUOTIDIEN SUR LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE
SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 160001
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.0 S / 51.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 30 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 230 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 245 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 205 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 440 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 520 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/16 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 470 NM SW: 340 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/17 AT 00 UTC:
31.2 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 455 NM SW: 350 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM DUE TO LOSS OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
FURTHER INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR
THE HIGHT SEAS FOR METAREA VII, ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICES OF SOUTH-AFRICA (FQZA31 FAPR)=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 48.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 945 SW: 915 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 650 SW: 520 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 870 SW: 795 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 530 SW: 445 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 75 NW: 0





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

JUDE MOVED OUT TO SEA AROUND 15UTC. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS REMAINED SHEARED, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS RATHER IMPRECISE DUE TO
THE POOR QUALITY OF THE MICROWAVES AVAILABLE BEFORE 18UTC, BUT IT IS
LOCATED IN A SOUTHERN POINT OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY AT THE NORTHERN
LIMIT OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SHOWS A CLEAR ACCELERATION OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLEAR INCREASE IN T OF
3.5+, I.E. ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS
NOTICEABLY STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT OF
0556UTC, IT IS DECIDED TO REVISE JUDE'S ESTIMATED WINDS UPWARDS, WITH
A VALUE OF 55KT. JUDE IS THEREFORE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN THE
PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, BUT WHOSE STRUCTURE IS RAPIDLY EVOLVING INTO
A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, JUDE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST, BEFORE
MERGING ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES. IN THIS CONTEXT, THERE IS NO LONGER ANY NEED TO FOLLOW
THE SYSTEM IN THE LONGER TERM.

RE-EMERGING OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT,
JUDE SHOULD REINTENSIFY BUT RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS, THEN GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, VERY STRONG WINDS REACHING STORM LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION UNTIL SUNDAY, DUE TO
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND THE GRADIENT EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS IN PROGRESS. STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WAVES OF 6-8M UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF 4-6M LASTING
UNTIL MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151820
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/12/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.2 S / 48.2 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 19 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 130 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/03/2025 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 945 SO: 915 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 650 SO: 520 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 16/03/2025 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 870 SO: 795 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 530 SO: 445 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 75 NO: 0





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

JUDE EST RESSORTIE SUR MER VERS 15UTC. AU COURS DE 6 DERNIERES
HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST RESTEE CISAILLEE AVEC UNE
ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ESSENTIELLEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LE
CENTRE ESTIME EST ASSEZ IMPRECIS DU FAIT DE LA QUALITE MEDIOCRE DES
MICRO-ONDES DISPONIBLES AVANT 18UTC, MAIS IL SE PLACE DANS UN POINT
SUD DE L'IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE EN LIMITE NORD DE LA CONVECTION. CELA
NOTE UNE NETTE ACCELERATION AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES.
L'ANALYSE EN DVORAK LAISSE UN T EN NETTE HAUSSE DE 3.5+ SOIT DES
VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT. CEPENDANT AVEC DES VENTS
NOTABLEMENT PLUS FORT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD D'APRES L'ASCAT DE 0556UTC,
IL EST CHOISI DE REVOIR A LA HAUSSE LES VENTS ESTIMES DE JUDE, AVEC
UNE VALEUR DE 55KT. JUDE EST DONC UNE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE EN
COURS D'INTENSIFICATION MAIS DONT LA STRUCTURE EVOLUE RAPIDEMENT VERS
UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JUDE RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
AU NORD-EST ET D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST PUIS IL DEVRAIT
FUSIONNER DIMANCHE AVEC UN FRONT FROID CIRCULANT AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE SUIVI DU SYSTEME N'A PLUS LIEU
D'ETRE AUX ECHEANCES PLUS LOINTAINES.

RESSORTIE SUR L'OCEAN DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS
BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT SE REINTENSIFIER MAIS PERDRE RAPIDEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES PUIS PROGRESSIVEMENT FUSIONNER AVEC UN
FRONT FROID DIMANCHE. NEANMOINS, DES VENTS TRES FORTS ATTEIGNANT LE
SEUIL DE LA TEMPETE DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A CONCERNER LA PARTIE SUD DE
LA CIRCULATION JUSQU'A DIMANCHE PAR INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET PAR
EFFET DE GRADIENT.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT EN COURS. VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE LE LONG DES COTES
SUD-EST PRENANT FIN EN COURS DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE.
- VAGUES DE 6-8M JUSQU'EN COUR DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE. VAGUES
DE 4-6M PERDURANT JUSQU'A LUNDI SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 151803
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 48.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
25.8 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 510 NM SW: 495 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 350 NM SW: 280 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/16 AT 18 UTC:
26.9 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 470 NM SW: 430 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151328
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 46.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SW: 620 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 740 SW: 715 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 470 SW: 445 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/17 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 175 NW: 140




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0+

JUDE HAS BEEN CROSSING SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR SINCE THIS MORNING.THE
LATEST GCOM AMSR2 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE FROM 1035Z POSITIONS THE
CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN TOLIARA PROVINCE.
IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION DECOUPLED FROM THE
CENTER AND LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE SEA, JUSTIFYING A SHEARED CLOUD
PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH LOCATED ON LAND, THE SYSTEM RETAINS A TROPICAL
ASPECT, ENABLING US TO PERFORM ANOTHER DVORAK ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATE A
CI OF 3.0+ WITH MEAN WINDS OF 40KT. HOWEVER, THE ACSAT SWATH AT 0556Z
STILL SHOWED WINDS OF 60KT CLOSE TO THE COAST, PROMPTING US TO
INCREASE THE WIND ESTIMATE FROM 12Z TO 45KT TO AVOID AN EXCESSIVE
DECREASE. WITH THIS AVERAGE WIND VALUE, MAX JUDE IS DOWNGRADED TO A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EMERGE SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR THIS SATURDAY EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR
SHOULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM THIS EVENING, AS IT MOVES OUT
OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS, VERY STRONG WINDS APPROACHING THE
STORM THRESHOLD SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CIRCULATION UNTIL SUNDAY, DUE TO BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINFALL THIS SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H) OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE REGION, WHICH COULD LOCALLY BECOME VERY HEAVY, REACHING
250 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY
ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST. END OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
IN THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151328
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/12/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.6 S / 46.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SO: 620 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 16/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 740 SO: 715 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 470 SO: 445 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 100 NO: 55

36H: 17/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 370 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 175 NO: 140




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0+

JUDE TRAVERSES LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR DEPUIS CE MATIN. LA DERNIERE
IMAGE SATELLITE MICRO-ONDES GCOM AMSR2 DE 1035Z PERMET DE POSITIONNER
LE CENTRE SUR LE SUD-EST DE LA PROVINCE DE TULEAR. LES IMAGES
SATELLITES IR ET VISIBLES NOUS MONTRENT UNE CONVECTION DECOUPLEE DU
CENTRE ET SITUEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR MER, JUSTIFIANT AINSI D'UNE
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE. MEME SI IL SE SITUE SUR TERRE LE
SYSTEME CONSERVE UN ASPECT TROPICAL, CE QUI NOUS PERMET D'EFFECTUER
ENCORE UNE ANALYSE DE DVORAK ET D'ESTIMER UN CI A 3.0+ AVEC DES VENTS
MOYENS DE 40KT. CEPENDANT LA PASSE ACSAT DE 0556Z MESURAIT ENCORE DES
VENTS DE 60KT A PROXIMITE DU LITTORAL, CE QUI NOUS INCITE A REMONTER
L'ESTIMATION DES VENTS DE 12Z A 45KT POUR EVITER UNE TROP FORTE
DIMINUTION. AVEC CETTE VALEUR DE VENTS MOYENS MAX JUDE EST
RETROGRADEE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JUDE RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
AU NORD-EST ET D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST ET RESSORTIR AU
SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR CE SAMEDI SOIR, PUIS IL DEVRAIT FUSIONNER
DIMANCHE AVEC UN FRONT FROID CIRCULANT AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES.

L'INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES ET LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
ONT UN PEU AFFAIBLI LE SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, EN RESSORTANT
SUR L'OCEAN DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, JUDE
DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES PUIS PROGRESSIVEMENT
FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID DIMANCHE. NEANMOINS, DES VENTS TRES
FORTS ATTEIGNANT PAROIS LE SEUIL DE LA TEMPETE DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A
CONCERNER SURTOUT LA PARTIE SUD ET OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION JUSQU'A
DIMANCHE PAR INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DE
PRESSION.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- FORTES PLUIES CE SAMEDI (100-200 MM EN 24H) SUR L'EXTREME SUD DE LA
REGION, POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEVENIR TRES FORTES ET ATTEINDRE 250 MM EN
24.
- COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'A SAMEDI SOIR, POUVANT
TEMPORAIREMENT RENTRER DANS L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES SAMEDI MATIN.
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLES CE SAMEDI LE LONG DES COTES
SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD. FIN DU COUP DE VENT EN MILIEU DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A
DIMANCHE.
- VAGUES DE 6-8M JUSQU'A LA NUIT PROCHAINE. VAGUES DE 4-6M PERDURANT
JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 151224 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 46.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 115 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/16 AT 00 UTC:
25.4 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 335 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/16 AT 12 UTC:
26.3 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 400 NM SW: 385 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 255 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 25.0S 44.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 44.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.3S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150720 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 44.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 520 SW: 520 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 170 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 770 SW: 770 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 705 SW: 715 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 445 SW: 445 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 130

48H: 2025/03/17 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 565 SW: 565 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

JUDE MADE LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES HELP US POSITION ITS CENTER IN THE SOUTH OF TULEAR
PROVINCE. VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT, OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS, CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND BUT IS STILL ACTIVE OVER THE
SEA. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON A SHEAR-LIKE ASPECT. AN ARC OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE SEEN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM,
INDICATING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LEADS
US TO PROPOSE A T AT 2.5 AND KEEP THE CI AT 3.5 BY INERTIA, WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND OF 45 TO 50KT.
JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, THUS MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE LATE HOURS OF THE NIGHT. AN EXIT TO
THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EMERGE SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE
ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE
ARCHIPELAGO.

JUDE SHOULD KEEP STORM-FORCE WINDS MAINLY LOCATED AT SEA IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, POSSIBLY RAKING THE SOUTHERN
MALAGASY COAST WHILE IT MOVES ALONG. LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. FROM SATURDAY EVENING, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, VERY STRONG WINDS UP TO STORM-FORCE INTENSITY ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION DUE TO BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINFALL THIS SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H) OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE REGION, WHICH COULD LOCALLY BECOME VERY HEAVY, REACHING
250 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY
ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST. END OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
IN THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150720 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/12/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.7 S / 44.6 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 520 SO: 520 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 170 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/03/2025 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SO: 480 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 45

24H: 16/03/2025 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 770 SO: 770 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 16/03/2025 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 705 SO: 715 NO: 490
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 445 SO: 445 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 130

48H: 17/03/2025 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 565 SO: 565 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 0



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

JUDE EST ENTRE SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES CE MATIN. LES DERNIERES
IMAGES SATELLITES VISIBLES NOUS AIDENT A POSITIONNER SON CENTRE DANS
LE SUD DE LA PROVINCE DE TULEAR. LES IMAGES VISIBLES ET INFRAROUGES
NOUS MONTRENT QUE, SUR LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST
ATTENUEE SUR TERRE MAIS RESTE ENCORE ACTIVE SUR LA MER. LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A ADOPTE UN ASPECT CISAILLE. ON REMARQUE
EGALEMENT UN ARC DE CIRRUS DAN LE NORD ET L'OUEST DU SYSTEME, QUI
TEMOIGNE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE
DVORAK NOUS POUSSENT A PROPOSER UN T A 2.5 ET CONSERVER LE CI A 3.5
PAR INERTIE, CE QUI CORRESPOND A UN VENT MOYEN MAXIMAL DE 45 A 50KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JUDE RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
AU NORD-EST ET D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST ET RESSORTIR AU
SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR CE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI OU SOIR, PUIS IL DEVRAIT
FUSIONNER DIMANCHE AVEC UN FRONT FROID CIRCULANT AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES.

JUDE DEVRAIT GARDER DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE SURTOUT EN MER DANS LA
MOITIE SUD DE LA CIRCULATION, POUVANT RACLER LA COTE SUD MALGACHE A
SON PASSAGE. L'INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES ET LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIENT UN PEU AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI SOIR, EN RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS
EN PLUS BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES PUIS PROGRESSIVEMENT FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID
DIMANCHE. NEANMOINS, DES VENTS TRES FORTS ATTEIGNANT ENCORE LE SEUIL
DE LA TEMPETE DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A CONCERNER LA PARTIE SUD ET OUEST
DE LA CIRCULATION JUSQU'A DIMANCHE PAR INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET PAR
EFFET DE GRADIENT DE PRESSION.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- FORTES PLUIES CE SAMEDI (100-200 MM EN 24H) SUR L'EXTREME SUD DE LA
REGION, POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEVENIR TRES FORTES ET ATTEINDRE 250 MM EN
24.
- COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'A SAMEDI SOIR, POUVANT
TEMPORAIREMENT RENTRER DANS L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES SAMEDI MATIN.
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLES CE SAMEDI LE LONG DES COTES
SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD. FIN DU COUP DE VENT EN MILIEU DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A
DIMANCHE.
- VAGUES DE 6-8M JUSQU'A LA NUIT PROCHAINE. VAGUES DE 4-6M PERDURANT
JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 150615
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 44.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 205 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
25.0 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
25.8 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 415 NM SW: 415 NM NW: 240 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150048
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 520 SW: 555 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 575 SW: 630 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 650 SW: 665 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 760 SW: 740 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 425 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 95

48H: 2025/03/17 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 425 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 175 NW: 205



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

A PARTIAL SMAP PASS AT 1546Z MEASURED WINDS OF 69 KT IN THE SYSTEM'S
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MEASUREMENT'S
QUALITY ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SWATH, THIS SUGGESTS THAT
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WERE POSSIBLY PRESENT AT 18Z AT PEAK INTENSITY.
IT ALSO SUPPORTS A WIND ESTIMATE WELL ABOVE DVORAK'S CI NUMBER. THE
CURVED BAND PATTERN PRESENT AROUND 18Z GRADUALLY DETERIORATED AFTER
19Z, WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. JUST BEFORE 00Z, THE CLOUD
PATTERN SHIFTED TO A SHEARED PATTERN WITH INTENSE CONVECTION RESUMING
AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITH A CENTER LOCATED AT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE 2225Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
CONFIRMS AN ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, WITH THE CONVECTIVE CORE
WEAKENING AND BECOMING BROADER IN ITS NORTHERN PART. IT ALSO SHOWS
POSSIBLE MESO-VORTICES ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE
CENTER. DUE TO INERTIA, THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT IN THE
SOUTH-WEST QUADRANT, SINCE IT WAS POSSIBLY AT 65 KT AT 18Z (THIS WILL
BE SETTLED IN POST-ANALYSIS).
THE SYSTEM'S CENTER WAS STILL AT SEA AT 00Z, BUT COULD MAKE LANDFALL
AROUND 02Z ABOUT 100-150 KM SOUTH OF TOLIARA.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, THUS MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE LATE HOURS OF THE NIGHT. AN EXIT TO
THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

JUDE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE,
WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS MAINLY LOCATED AT SEA IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, POSSIBLY RAKING THE SOUTHERN MALAGASY COAST
WHILE IT MOVES ALONG. LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM
SATURDAY EVENING, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS, VERY
STRONG WINDS UP TO STORM-FORCE INTENSITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINFALL THIS SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H) OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY
ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST. END OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
IN THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150048
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/12/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.5 S / 43.6 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 520 SO: 555 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/03/2025 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 575 SO: 630 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 0

24H: 16/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 650 SO: 665 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 315 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 85

36H: 16/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 760 SO: 740 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SO: 425 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 95

48H: 17/03/2025 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 425 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 175 NO: 205



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

UNE PASSE SMAP PARTIELLE A 1546Z A MESURE DES VENTS DE 69 KT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. MALGRE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA MESURE
EN BORD DE FAUCHEE, CELA SUGGERE QUE DES VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN
ETAIENT POSSIBLEMENT PRESENTS A 18Z AU PIC D'INTENSITE. CELA CONFORTE
AUSSI UNE ESTIMATION DE VENTS NETTEMENT SUPERIEURE AU NOMBRE CI
DVORAK. LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE PRESENTE VERS 18Z S'EST
PROGRESSIVEMENT DEGRADEE APRES 19Z AVEC UNE CONVECTION
S'AFFAIBLISSANT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD SOUS L'EFFET DE LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. UN PEU AVANT 00Z, LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE A EVOLUE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC UNE
CONVECTION QUI S'EST DE NOUVEAU RENFORCE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET
UN CENTRE EN BORDURE NORD DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES
AMSR2 DE 2225Z CONFIRME UNE STRUCTURE ASYMETRIQUE AVEC UN COEUR
CONVECTIF FAIBLISSANT ET DEVENANT PLUS LARGE DANS SA PARTIE NORD.
ELLE MONTRE AUSSI DE POSSIBLES STRUCTURES DE MESO-VORTEX EN BORDURE
SUD ET OUEST DU CENTRE. PAR INERTIE, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 60
KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST, SACHANT QU'ELLE ETAIT POSSIBLEMENT A
65 KT A 18Z (CELA SERA AFFINE EN POST-ANALYSE).
LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME ETAIT ENCORE EN MER A 00Z MAIS POURRAIT TOUCHER
TERRE VERS 02Z A 100-150 KM AU SUD DE LA VILLE DE TOLIARA.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JUDE RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
AU NORD-EST ET D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST ET ATTERRIR SUR
LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR EN FIN DE NUIT. UNE RESSORTIE AU SUD-EST
DE MADAGASCAR EST PREVUE CE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI OU SOIR, PUIS IL
DEVRAIT FUSIONNER DIMANCHE AVEC UN FRONT FROID CIRCULANT AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES.

JUDE DEVRAIT ATTERRIR AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, AVEC DES
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE SURTOUT PRESENTS EN MER DANS LA MOITIE
SUD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION, POUVANT RACLER LA COTE SUD MALGACHE A
SON PASSAGE. L'INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES ET LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIENT UN PEU AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI SOIR, EN RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS
EN PLUS BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES PUIS PROGRESSIVEMENT FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID
DIMANCHE. NEANMOINS, DES VENTS TRES FORTS ATTEIGNANT ENCORE LE SEUIL
DE LA TEMPETE DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A CONCERNER LA PARTIE SUD ET OUEST
DE LA CIRCULATION JUSQU'A DIMANCHE PAR INTERACTION BAROCLINE ET PAR
EFFET DE GRADIENT DE PRESSION.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- FORTES PLUIES CE SAMEDI (100-200 MM EN 24H) SUR L'EXTREME SUD DE LA
REGION.
- COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'A SAMEDI SOIR, POUVANT
TEMPORAIREMENT RENTRER DANS L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES SAMEDI MATIN.
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLES CE SAMEDI LE LONG DES COTES
SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD. FIN DU COUP DE VENT EN MILIEU DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A
DIMANCHE.
- VAGUES DE 6-8M JUSQU'A SAMEDI MATIN. VAGUES DE 4-6M PERDURANT
JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 150030
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
25.0 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 310 NM SW: 340 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/16 AT 00 UTC:
25.2 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 350 NM SW: 360 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 24.6S 43.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 43.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.1S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.6S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.8S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 43.8E.
14MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
223 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141955
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 500 SW: 465 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 500 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 465 SW: 500 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 85

48H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 520 SW: 500 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 95

60H: 2025/03/17 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 205


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS STRENGTHENED
SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WRAPPING WEST
AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CURVED BAND WRAPS MORE THAN 0.8 ROUND,
GIVING A DT OF 3.5, IN LINE WITH THE MET AND PT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM,
DELIBERATELY ABOVE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS DUE TO AN EFFECTIVE INTENSITY
THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE SYSTEM'S
SATELLITE APPEARANCE SINCE THIS FRIDAY MORNING, AND PROLONGING THE
50/55 KT MEASURED ON FRIDAY MORNING'S ASCAT PASS, WHICH ARE PROBABLY
EXCEEDED THIS EVENING UNDER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE'S VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, THUS MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR JUST SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF TOLIARA IN THE
MIDDLE OR LATE HOURS OF THE NIGHT. AN EXIT TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF
MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES.

INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT TERM. JUDE IS THUS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE. LATER ON, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LANDS
SHOULD MORE OR LESS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM SATURDAY EVENING, AS IT
MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT,
JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF TOLIARA AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H), PARTICULARLY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM NOW ON AND
UNTIL SATURDAY MIDDAY ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141955
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/12/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.2 S / 43.0 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 480 SO: 405 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/03/2025 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 500 SO: 465 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 15/03/2025 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 500 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 85

36H: 16/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 465 SO: 500 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 85

48H: 16/03/2025 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 520 SO: 500 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 85 NO: 95

60H: 17/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 405 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 185 NO: 205


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE
DE JUDE S'EST NETTEMENT RENFORCEE, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TRES
INTENSE S'ENROULANT A L'OUEST ET AU NORD DU CENTRE. LA BANDE INCURVEE
S'ENROULE SUR PLUS DE TROIS QUARTS DE TOURS, DONNANT UN DT A 3.5, EN
ACCORD AVEC LE MET/PT. LES VENTS MAXIMAUX SONT ESTIMES A 60 KT DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DU SYSTEME, VOLONTAIREMENT AU-DESSUS DE
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN RAISON D'UNE INTENSITE EFFECTIVE QUI A ETE
REGULIEREMENT PLUS FORTE QUE SUGGERE PAR L'APPARENCE SATELLITAIRE DU
SYSTEME DEPUIS CE VENDREDI MATIN, ET DANS LE PROLONGEMENT DES 50/55
KT MESURES SUR LA PASSE ASCAT DE VENDREDI MATIN QUI SONT PROBABLEMENT
DEPASSES CE SOIR SOUS LA TRES INTENSE CONVECTION DU DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JUDE RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
AU NORD-EST ET D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST ET ATTERRIR SUR
LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR UN PEU AU SUD DE LA VILLE DE TOLIARA EN
MILIEU OU FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE. UNE RESSORTIE AU SUD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR EST PREVUE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI, PUIS IL DEVRAIT FUSIONNER
DIMANCHE AVEC UN FRONT FROID CIRCULANT AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES.

LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT LIMITER L'INTENSIFICATION A COURT
TERME. JUDE DEVRAIT DONC ATTERRIR AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE. ENSUITE, L'INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES DEVRAIENT
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR, EN RESSORTANT SUR
L'OCEAN DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET PROGRESSIVEMENT FUSIONNER
AVEC UN FRONT FROID. DES VENTS ENCORE FORTS DEVRAIENT CONCERNER LA
PARTIE SUD ET OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DE
PRESSION.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN MILIEU OU FIN DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI AU
SUD DE TOLIARA AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.
- FORTES PLUIES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (100-200 MM EN 24H), NOTAMMENT SUR
L'EXTREME SUD DE LA REGION.
- COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'A SAMEDI SOIR, POUVANT
TEMPORAIREMENT RENTRER DANS L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES D'ICI SAMEDI
MATIN. VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DEPUIS CE VENDREDI SOIR ET JUSQU'EN
MI-JOURNEE DE SAMEDI LE LONG DES COTES SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD.
- VAGUES DE 6-8M JUSQU'A SAMEDI MATIN. VAGUES DE 4-6M PERDURANT
JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 500 SW: 465 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 500 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 465 SW: 500 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 85

48H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 520 SW: 500 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 95

60H: 2025/03/17 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 205


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS STRENGTHENED
SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WRAPPING WEST
AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CURVED BAND WRAPS MORE THAN 0.8 ROUND,
GIVING A DT OF 3.5, IN LINE WITH THE MET AND PT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM,
DELIBERATELY ABOVE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS DUE TO AN EFFECTIVE INTENSITY
THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE SYSTEM'S
SATELLITE APPEARANCE SINCE THIS FRIDAY MORNING, AND PROLONGING THE
50/55 KT MEASURED ON FRIDAY MORNING'S ASCAT PASS, WHICH ARE PROBABLY
EXCEEDED THIS EVENING UNDER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE'S VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE VERY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM TOLIARA AT 18UTC (NORTHERLY WIND AT 21 KT, PRESSURE
AT 994 HPA) SEEM TO SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM'S CENTER IS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE CURRENT ESTIMATE.

JUDE'S MOVEMENT REMAINS STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, THUS MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR JUST SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF TOLIARA IN THE
MIDDLE OR LATE HOURS OF THE NIGHT. AN EXIT TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF
MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES.

INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT TERM. JUDE IS THUS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE. LATER ON, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LANDS
SHOULD MORE OR LESS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FROM SATURDAY EVENING, AS IT
MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT,
JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF TOLIARA AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H), PARTICULARLY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- GALES ONGOING AND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPORARILY REACHING
INLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM NOW ON AND
UNTIL SATURDAY MIDDAY ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN COAST.
- WAVES LOCALLY UP TO 6-8M EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
4-6M LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTH COAST.
- STORM SURGE CLOSE TO 50CM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141844
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/12/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.2 S / 43.0 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 480 SO: 405 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/03/2025 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 500 SO: 465 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 15/03/2025 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 500 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 85

36H: 16/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 465 SO: 500 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 85

48H: 16/03/2025 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 520 SO: 500 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 85 NO: 95

60H: 17/03/2025 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 405 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 185 NO: 205


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE
DE JUDE S'EST NETTEMENT RENFORCEE, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TRES
INTENSE S'ENROULANT A L'OUEST ET AU NORD DU CENTRE. LA BANDE INCURVEE
S'ENROULE SUR PLUS DE TROIS QUARTS DE TOURS, DONNANT UN DT A 3.5, EN
ACCORD AVEC LE MET/PT. LES VENTS MAXIMAUX SONT ESTIMES A 60 KT DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DU SYSTEME, VOLONTAIREMENT AU-DESSUS DE
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN RAISON D'UNE INTENSITE EFFECTIVE QUI A ETE
REGULIEREMENT PLUS FORTE QUE SUGGERE PAR L'APPARENCE SATELLITAIRE DU
SYSTEME DEPUIS CE VENDREDI MATIN, ET DANS LE PROLONGEMENT DES 50/55
KT MESURES SUR LA PASSE ASCAT DE VENDREDI MATIN QUI SONT PROBABLEMENT
DEPASSES CE SOIR SOUS LA TRES INTENSE CONVECTION DU DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST. PAR AILLEURS, LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES AINSI
QUE LES OBSERVATIONS DE TOLIARA A 18UTC (VENT DE NORD A 21 KT,
PRESSION A 994 HPA) SUGGERENT QUE LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME EST UN PEU
PLUS AU NORD QUE LA PRESENTE ESTIMATION.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JUDE RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
AU NORD-EST ET D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST ET ATTERRIR SUR
LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR UN PEU AU SUD DE LA VILLE DE TOLIARA EN
MILIEU OU FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE. UNE RESSORTIE AU SUD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR EST PREVUE SAMEDI APRES-MIDI, PUIS IL DEVRAIT FUSIONNER
DIMANCHE AVEC UN FRONT FROID CIRCULANT AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES.

LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT LIMITER L'INTENSIFICATION A COURT
TERME. JUDE DEVRAIT DONC ATTERRIR AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE. ENSUITE, L'INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES MALGACHES DEVRAIENT
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR, EN RESSORTANT SUR
L'OCEAN DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET PROGRESSIVEMENT FUSIONNER
AVEC UN FRONT FROID. DES VENTS ENCORE FORTS DEVRAIENT CONCERNER LA
PARTIE SUD ET OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DE
PRESSION.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN MILIEU OU FIN DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI AU
SUD DE TOLIARA AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.
- FORTES PLUIES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (100-200 MM EN 24H), NOTAMMENT SUR
L'EXTREME SUD DE LA REGION.
- COUP DE VENT EN COURS ET JUSQU'A SAMEDI SOIR, POUVANT
TEMPORAIREMENT RENTRER DANS L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES D'ICI SAMEDI
MATIN. VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DEPUIS CE VENDREDI SOIR ET JUSQU'EN
MI-JOURNEE DE SAMEDI LE LONG DES COTES SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD.
- VAGUES DE 6-8M JUSQU'A SAMEDI MATIN. VAGUES DE 4-6M PERDURANT
JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.
- MAREE DE TEMPETE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 141822
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/15 AT 06 UTC:
24.9 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
25.2 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 270 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 42.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 405 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 95 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 480 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 250 SW: 565 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SW: 630 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 335 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/17 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 595 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 10 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 0


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=2.5 CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN HAS FADED,
CONCENTRATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER WITH INCREASINGLY
COLD HIGHS IN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION. FROM THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY, AN ANALYSIS IN PT OF 2.5 CAN BE MADE SHOWING A CLEAR
WEAKENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME. BY CONSERVATION,
THE CI REMAINS AT 3.5 WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 50KT
CORRESPONDING TO THE VALUES PROVIDED BY THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS OF
0617UTC. JUDE REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY
TO INTENSIFY IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE, JUDE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL CONTINUING OVER THE
MASCAREIGNES, AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARDS, LANDFALLING OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA. THE LOCATION IS
BECOMING CLEARER A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF TOLIARA EARLY
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, DUE TO A SLIGHT ACCELERATION. AN EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THEN
IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES. THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS WILL FADE OVER THE LONG
TERM AS IT MERGES WITH THE TROUGH.

INTENSIFICATION IS SLOW IN COMING AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
LESS CONDUCIVE TO JUDE INTENSIFICATION, WITH DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING SHEAR. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SHOULD NO LONGER BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
LANDFALL. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT. IN THESE CONDITIONS,
STILL STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINS UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H), PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF TOLIARA AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.
- GALES EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING, STRENGTHENING TO STORM FORCE
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING OF FRIDAY.
- VERY HEAVY TO HEAVY SEAS (6M LOCALLY MORE) FROM FRIDAY MORNING.
HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SEAS (4 TO 6M) UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE
SOUTH COAST.
- SURGE OF AROUND 50CM NEAR IMPACT ZONE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141221
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/12/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 42.4 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 270 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 120 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/03/2025 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 405 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 95 NO: 65

24H: 15/03/2025 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SO: 480 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 85

36H: 16/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 250 SO: 565 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 185 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 16/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SO: 630 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 335 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 0

60H: 17/03/2025 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 595 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 175 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 10 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 0


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=2.5 CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
INCURVE DE JUDE S'EST ESTOMPEE, CONCENTRANT L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
PRES DU CENTRE AVEC DES SOMMETS DE PLUS EN PLUS FROIDS DANS LE
SECTEUR OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. A PARTIR DE L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE, UNE
ANALYSE EN PT DE 2.5 PEUT ETRE FAITE MONTRANT UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PAR RAPPORT AU RESEAU PRECEDENT. PAR CONSERVATION, LE CI RESTE A 3.5
AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES QUI SERAIENT DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT CORRESPONDANT
AUX VALEURS FOURNIES PAR LA PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE 0617UTC. JUDE
RESTE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE PRESENTANT UNE FAIBLE
TENDANCE A L'INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DES DERNIERS INSTANTS.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT, JUDE RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE AU NORD
DU CANAL SE POURSUIVANT SUR LES MASCAREIGNES ET D'UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST ET ATTERRIR SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA. LA LOCALISATION SE PRECISE UN
PEU PLUS AU SUD DE LA VILLE DE TOLIARA EN DEBUT DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A
SAMEDI DU FAIT D'UNE LEGERE ACCELERATION. UNE RESSORTIE AU SUD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR EST PREVUE SAMEDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, PUIS IL DEVRAIT
FUSIONNER A ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE AVEC UN FRONT FROID CIRCULANT AU SUD
DES MASCAREIGNES. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES S'ESTOMPE NOTAMMENT A
LONGUE ECHEANCE LORS DE LA FUSION AVEC LE TALWEG.

L'INTENSIFICATION TARDE ET LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
MOINS PROPICES A UNE INTENSIFICATION DE JUDE AVEC NOTAMMENT DE L'AIR
SEC EN ALTITUDE QUI GAGNE LE SECTEUR NORD DU SYSTEME ET UN
CISAILLEMENT A LA HAUSSE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL NE DEVRAIT PAS
PLUS ETRE POSSIBLE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, EN
RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS
BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES TOUT
EN FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID. DANS CES CONDITIONS, DES VENTS
ENCORE FORTS DEVRAIENT CONCERNER DANS LA PARTIE SUD DE LA
CIRCULATION.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- FORTES PLUIES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (100-200 MM EN 24H), NOTAMMENT SUR LE
SUD DE LA REGION.
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN DEBUT DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI AU SUD DE
TOLIARA AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.
- COUP DE VENT EN COURS FORCISSANT EN VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN COURS
DE JOURNEE DE CE VENDREDI JUSQU'A SAMEDI MATIN.
- MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (6M LOCALEMENT PLUS) EN COURS. MER FORTE A
TRES FORTE (4 A 6M) JUSQU'A LUNDI SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.
- SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM PROCHE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 141201
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 42.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
24.3 S / 44.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
24.5 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 41.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/06 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SW: 480 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 470 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 120

36H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 445 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 445 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 575 SW: 695 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS CONTINUED.
CAUSED BY THE PRESENCE OF MADAGASCAR, THE CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN
PART IS EXTENDING, BUT WITH CLOUDY TOPS THAT ARE STRUGGLING TO COOL.
THE PART NEAR THE CENTER HAS ALSO WARMED UP A LITTLE OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE PART LOCATED FAR IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CIRCULATION CANNOT BE INCLUDED IN JUDE'S CLOUD PATTERN, BEING
MORE RELATED TO THE CONVERGENCE OF MONSOON FLOWS COMING DOWN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IN SUCH A PATTERN, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PROPOSE A
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH T-ANALYSIS. A PT OF 3.5- FOR A CLOUD CLUSTER
PATTERN IS MORE APPROPRIATE. HOWEVER, THIS LEAVES A WIND ESTIMATE
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATEST VALUES DERIVED FROM THE PREVIOUS ASCAT.
JUDE REMAINS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AT 50KT.

WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, JUDE
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CHANNEL CONTINUING OVER THE MASCAREIGNES, AND A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH-EASTWARDS, LANDFALLING OVER SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE
PROVINCE OF TOLIARA. THE LOCATION IS BECOMING CLEARER A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF TOLIARA EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT, DUE TO A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION. AN EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR IS
FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE ON SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES. THE
DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS STILL SIGNIFICANT, ESPECIALLY AT LONG
RANGE, REFLECTING THE MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANTLY MERGING WITH THE
TROUGH.

JUDE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (MODERATE SHEAR IN THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT, VERY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS SET TO STRENGTHEN
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, LIMITING ITS INTENSIFICATION, AND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED JUST BEFORE THE LANDFALL.
OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT, KEEPING WINDS STILL STRONG IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- RAINS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE CONVERGENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW
OVER THE NORTH OF THE PROVINCE (AND EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH OF
MAHAJANGA PROVINCE) WHICH WILL DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAINS UNTIL
SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200-300 MM POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN
48H), PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
- LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF TOLIARA AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM, POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
- GALES EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING, STRENGTHENING TO STORM FORCE
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING OF FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE LIKELY NEAR
IMPACT ZONE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
- VERY HEAVY TO HEAVY SEAS (6M LOCALLY MORE) FROM FRIDAY MORNING.
HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SEAS (4 TO 6M) UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE
SOUTH COAST.
- SURGE OF AROUND 50CM NEAR IMPACT ZONE.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140640
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/12/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.2 S / 41.4 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/06 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2025 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SO: 480 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 15/03/2025 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SO: 470 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 120

36H: 15/03/2025 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 445 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 0

48H: 16/03/2025 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 445 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 16/03/2025 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 575 SO: 695 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 0


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE
INCURVE DE JUDE S'EST MAINTENUE. GENEE PAR LA PRESENCE DE MADAGASCAR,
LA BANDE INCURVE DANS LA PARTIE SUD S'ETEND MAIS AVEC DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX QUI ONT DU MAL A SE REFROIDIR. LA PARTIE PROCHE DU CENTRE
S'EST AUSSI UN PEU RECHAUFFE AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES. LA PARTIE
CONVECTIVE SITUEE LOIN DANS LA PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION NE PEUT
PAS ETRE INCLUSE DANS LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE JUDE, ETANT PLUS
EN LIEN AVEC LA CONVERGENCE DE FLUX DE MOUSSON QUI DESCEND LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE. DANS UNE TELLE CONFIGURATION, IL EST DIFFICILE DE
PROPOSER UNE ANALYSE EN T SUFFISAMMENT HAUTE. UN PT DE 3.5- POUR UE
CONFIGURATION D'AMAS NUAGEUX EST PLUS ADAPTE. CELA LAISSE LAISSER
TOUTEFOIS UNE ESTIAMTION DES VENTS UN PEU EN DESSOUS DES DERNIERES
VALEURS DECOULANT DE LA PRECEDENTEE ASCAT. JUDE RESTE AU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE A 50KT.

AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE UN PEU PLUS AU SUD QUE LORS DES PRECEDENTES
PREVISIONS, JUDE RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE AU NORD DU
CANAL SE POURSUIVANT SUR LES MASCAREIGNES ET D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES AU SUD. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
LE SUD-EST ET ATTERRIR SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SUR LA PROVINCE
DE TOLIARA. LA LOCALISATION SE PRECISE UN PEU PLUS AU SUD DE LA VILLE
DE TOLIARA EN DEBUT DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI DU FAIT D'UNE LEGERE
ACCELERATION. UNE RESSORTIE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR EST PREVUE
SAMEDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, PUIS IL DEVRAIT FUSIONNER A ECHEANCE DE
DIMANCHE AVEC UN FRONT FROID CIRCULANT AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES. LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE NOTAMMENT A LONGUE
ECHEANCE TRADUISANT LA FUSION PLUS OU MOINS FRANCHE AVEC LE TALWEG.

JUDE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE SUR LES EAUX
TRES CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TEMPORAIREMENT FAVORABLE (CISAILLEMENT MODERE DANS LE SENS DU
DEPLACEMENT, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). TOUTEFOIS, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE,
LIMITANT SON INTENSIFICATION, LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL POUVANT
ETRE ATTEINT JUSTE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, EN
RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS
BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES TOUT
EN FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID, GARDANT DES VENTS ENCORE FORTS
DANS LA PARTIE SUD DE LA CIRCULATION.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- ACTUELLEMENT DES PLUIES EN AMONT DANS LA CONVERGENCE DU FLUX DE
MOUSSON SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE (ET DEBORDANT SUR LE SUD DE LA
PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA) QUI VONT EVOLUER EN FORTES PLUIES JUSQU'A
SAMEDI (100-200 MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 200-300 MM POSSIBLES EN MOINS
DE 48H), NOTAMMENT SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION.
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN DEBUT DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI AU SUD DE
TOLIARA AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, EVENTUELLEMENT DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL.
- COUP DE VENT ATTENDUS A PARTIR DE CE MATIN, FORCISSANT EN VENTS DE
FORCE TEMPETE EN JOURNEE ET SOIREE DE VENDREDI. FORCE OURAGAN
PROBABLE PROCHE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT EN COURS DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A
SAMEDI.
- MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (6M LOCALEMENT PLUS) A PARTIR DE VENDREDI
MATIN. MER FORTE A TRES FORTE (4 A 6M) JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI SUR
LE LITTORAL SUD.
- SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM PROCHE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 140600
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 41.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
24.1 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 260 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/15 AT 06 UTC:
24.4 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140115
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 40.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SW: 400 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120

24H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 120

36H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 425 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 100

60H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 870 SW: 835 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 555 SW: 480 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 0


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, JUDE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY EVOLVED
INTO A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
1813Z ASCAT DATA AND EUROPA OBSERVATIONS HAVE HELPED REPOSITIONING
JUDE'S POSITION FURTHER SOUTH-EAST THAN INITIALLY ESTIMATED. GIVEN
THE PRESSURE MEASURED AT EUROPA (988HPA), THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED
AT 50KT.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE
PROVINCE OF TOLIARA ON FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE CITY OF TOLIARA
(TIMING AND LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN). IT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY EVENING, THEN MERGE WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY AT LONGER RANGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST, TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE 18Z GUIDANCE, WHICH REPRESENT BETTER THE INITIAL
POSITION, LEADING TO A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST.

JUDE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (MODERATE SHEAR IN THE MOTION DIRECTION, VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH, LIMITING ITS INTENSIFICATION. STILL, AN
INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVER
THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT PROBABLY SOUTH OF TOLIARA, LIKELY AS
A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, EVENTUALLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY FROM FRIDAY EARLY MORNING. STORM-FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200-300
MM POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN 48H), ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN PARTS.
- VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS (6M, LOCALLY MORE) FROM FRIDAY MORNING.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS (4 TO 6M) UP TO SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE
SOUTHERN COAST.
- 50CM STORM SURGE NEAR THE LANDFALL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140115
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/12/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.4 S / 40.7 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2025 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SO: 400 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120

24H: 15/03/2025 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SO: 405 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 260 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 120 NO: 120

36H: 15/03/2025 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SO: 360 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 0

48H: 16/03/2025 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SO: 425 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 280 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 100

60H: 16/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 870 SO: 835 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 555 SO: 480 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 240 NO: 0


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE JUDE
A PROGRESSIVEMENT EVOLUEE VERS UNE BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST. LES DONNEES ASCAT DE 1813Z ET LES OBSERVATIONS
D'EUROPA ONT PERMIS DE REPLACER LA POSITION DE JUDE PLUS AU SUD-EST
QU'INITIALEMENT ESTIME. AU VU DE LA PRESSION MESUREE A EUROPA
(988HPA), L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 50KT.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL ET D'UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST ET ATTERRIR SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A
SAMEDI, AU SUD DE LA VILLE DE TOLIARA (TIMING ET LOCALISATION ENCORE
INCERTAIN). UNE RESSORTIE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR EST PREVUE SAMEDI
SOIR, PUIS IL DEVRAIT FUSIONNER EN COURS DE WEEK-END AVEC UN FRONT
FROID. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE ENCORE IMPORTANTE NOTAMMENT A
LONGUE ECHEANCE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TIENT COMPTE DES DERNIERS RUNS
(18Z) REPRESENTANT MIEUX LA POSITION INITIALE DU SYSTEME, CE QUI
ENTRAINE UN DECALAGE VERS LE SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE.

JUDE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE SUR LES EAUX
TRES CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TEMPORAIREMENT FAVORABLE (CISAILLEMENT MODERE DANS LE SENS DU
DEPLACEMENT, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). TOUTEFOIS, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE,
LIMITANT SON INTENSIFICATION. UNE INTENSIFICATION AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL NE PEUT PAS ENCORE ETRE EXCLUE. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, EN
RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS
BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES TOUT
EN FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN COURS DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI AU SUD DE
TOLIARA PROBABLEMENT AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
EVENTUELLEMENT DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE A PARTIR DE CE MATIN. VENTS DE FORCE
TEMPETE PROBABLE EN JOURNEE ET SOIREE DE VENDREDI
- FORTES PLUIES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (100-200 MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 200-300
MM POSSIBLES EN MOINS DE 48H), NOTAMMENT SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION
- MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (6M LOCALEMENT PLUS) A PARTIR DE VENDREDI
MATIN. MER FORTE A TRES FORTE (4 A 6M) JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI SUR
LE LITTORAL SUD.
- SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 50CM PROCHE DE L'ATTERRISSAGE.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 140007
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 40.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/14 AT 12 UTC:
23.4 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
24.2 S / 44.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 39.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 39.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.5S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.6S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 24.3S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.9S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 40.0E.
13MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS
992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(IVONE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 39.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 205

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 465 SW: 455 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 95

60H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 110

72H: 2025/03/16 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 575 SW: 565 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, JUDE HAS MAINTAINED A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER, CLOUD TOPS REMAIN COLD. OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA (AROUND
150KM SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER AT 18Z) AND WIND DATA FROM
THE 1049Z AMSR2 PASS SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS EXCEEDING 40KT. THE LATEST
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1547Z ALSO SUGGESTS A MORE SYMMETRICAL
INNER CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 45KT.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE
PROVINCE OF TOLIARA ON FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR THE CITY OF TOLIARA. IT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY EVENING, THEN
MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS
IS SIGNIFICANT REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S MOTION SPEED. THE LATEST IFS
RUN (12Z) IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON A SLOWER
CONSENSUS FOR THE TIME BEING.

JUDE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (MODERATE SHEAR IN THE MOTION DIRECTION, VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE), AND SHOULD REACH THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, LIMITING ITS INTENSIFICATION.
COMBINED WITH THE TRANSIT OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, THIS SHOULD THEN
LEAD TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER
THE OCEAN IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT PROBABLY AT LESS THAN 100 KM FROM
TOLIARA LIKELY AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY FROM FRIDAY EARLY MORNING. STORM-FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200-300
MM POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN 48H).ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN PARTS.
- VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS (6M) FROM FRIDAY MORNING. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS (4 TO 6M) UP TO SUNDAY OR MONDAY ON THE SOUTHERN COAST.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131833
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/12/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 39.3 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 205

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2025 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 345 SO: 345 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

24H: 14/03/2025 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 465 SO: 455 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 345 SO: 295 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 15/03/2025 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 380 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 0

48H: 15/03/2025 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 95

60H: 16/03/2025 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 110

72H: 16/03/2025 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 575 SO: 565 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, JUDE A CONSERVE UNE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE AVEC L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE CONCENTREE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. TOUTEFOIS LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX RESTENT FROIDS. LES
OBSERVATIONS D'EUROPA (ENVIRON 150KM AU SUD-EST DU CENTRE ESTIME A
18Z) AINSI QUE LES DONNEES VENT DE LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 1049Z, MONTRENT
QUE LES VENTS MAXIMAUX DEPASSENT LES 40KT. LA DERNIERE IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1547Z SEMBLENT EGALEMENT INDIQUER UNE
CIRCULATION INTERNE PLUS SYMETRIQUE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC REHAUSSEE A
45KT.


SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL ET D'UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST ET ATTERRIR SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A
SAMEDI, A PROXIMITE DE LA VILLE DE TOLIARA. UNE RESSORTIE AU SUD-EST
DE MADAGASCAR EST PREVUE SAMEDI SOIR, PUIS IL DEVRAIT FUSIONNER EN
COURS DE WEEK-END AVEC UN FRONT FROID. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST
ASSEZ IMPORTANTE CONCERNANT LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME. LE
DERNIER RUN D'IFS (12Z) EST NETTEMENT PLUS RAPIDE. LA PREVISION RESTE
SUR UN CONSENSUS PLUS LENT POUR L'INSTANT.

JUDE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE SUR LES EAUX
TRES CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TEMPORAIREMENT FAVORABLE (CISAILLEMENT MODERE DANS LE SENS DU
DEPLACEMENT, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE), ET DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE
LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.
TOUTEFOIS, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER A PARTIR DE LA NUIT
PROCHAINE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LIMITANT SON
INTENSIFICATION. CONJUGE AU PASSAGE SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR, CELA
DEVRAIT ENSUITE CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, EN RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN
PLUS BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES
TOUT EN FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN COURS DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI A MOINS DE
100 KM DE TOLIARA PROBABLEMENT AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.
- COUP DE VENT TRES PROBABLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI MATIN. VENTS DE
FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE ET SOIREE DE VENDREDI
- FORTES PLUIES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (100-200 MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 200-300
MM POSSIBLES EN MOINS DE 48H), NOTAMMENT SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION
- MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (6M) A PARTIR DE VENDREDI MATIN. MER FORTE
A TRES FORTE (4 A 6M) JUSQU'A DIMANCHE OU LUNDI SUR LE LITTORAL SUD.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 131814
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 39.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 135
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/14 AT 06 UTC:
22.5 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
23.4 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 38.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 165

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130

24H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95

36H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 110

48H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 425 SW: 370 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 75

72H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SW: 455 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED A BIT IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STORM, PROBABLY DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE, BUT HAS
REMAINED INTENSE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, GRADUALLY FORMING A
CURVED BAND. THE CIRCULATION STILL APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD, WITH
PROBABLY TWO OR THREE SMALL SECONDARY VORTICES, AS SUGGESTED BY THE
1049Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM'S CENTER IS THUS ESTIMATED TO
BE AT THE GRAVITY CENTER OF THESE VORTICES AND IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE ESTIMATES. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, JUDE'S
INTENSITY IS KEPT STATIONARY AT 40 KT.
AT EUROPA ISLAND'S WEATHER STATION, AS THE STORM GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH-WEST, ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE HAS DROPPED FROM 1006 TO
1002 HPA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z, AND THE MEAN WIND NOW REACHES ALMOST 20
KT, SHOWING THAT THE ISLAND IS STILL AWAY FROM THE NEAR-GALE FORCE
WINDS, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODEL ESTIMATES.

UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CHANNEL AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN EXIT TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL DISPERSION IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S
FORWARD SPEED OF MOVEMENT, WITH THE LATEST RUNS TENDING TO DELAY
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR A LITTLE.

JUDE SHOULD KEEP ON GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL'S VERY WARM WATERS, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (LOW WIND SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE), AND COULD
REACH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY TOMORROW FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH. COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR,
THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL AND THEN LEAD TO THE
SYSTEM'S WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN
IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT PROBABLY AT LESS THAN 100 KM FROM
TOLIARA NEAR SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM FRIDAY EARLY MORNING. STORM-FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND MAYBE UNTIL THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN
24H, LOCALLY 200-300 MM POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN 48H).
- VERY ROUGH SEAS (4 TO 6M) FROM FRIDAY, POSSIBLY UNTIL SUNDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131239
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/12/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 38.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 165

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 130

24H: 14/03/2025 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 370 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 240 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 95

36H: 15/03/2025 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 110

48H: 15/03/2025 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 370 NO: 0

60H: 16/03/2025 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 425 SO: 370 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 75

72H: 16/03/2025 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SO: 455 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST UN PEU ATTENUEE
SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA TEMPETE, PROBABLEMENT SOUS L'EFFET DU CYCLE
DIURNE, MAIS EST RESTEE INTENSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, S'ORGANISANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT EN BANDE INCURVEE. LA CIRCULATION SEMBLE ENCORE ASSEZ
LARGE AVEC PROBABLEMENT DEUX OU TROIS PETITS VORTEX SECONDAIRES,
COMME LE SUGGERE L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 1049Z. LE CENTRE DU
SYSTEME EST ESTIME AU CENTRE DE GRAVITE DE CES NOYAUX DE VORTICITE ET
EN COHERENCE AVEC LES ANALYSES DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES NUMERIQUES. EN
L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES DONNEES, L'INTENSITE DE JUDE EST MAINTENUE
STATIONNAIRE A 40 KT.
A LA STATION METEOROLOGIQUE DE L'ILE D'EUROPA, AVEC L'APPROCHE
GRADUELLE DE LA TEMPETE PAR LE NORD-OUEST, LA PRESSION ATMOSPHERIQUE
S'EST ABAISSEE DE 1006 A 1002 HPA ENTRE 06 ET 12Z ET LE VENT MOYEN
ATTEINT PRES DE 20 KT, MONTRANT QUE L'ILE EST ENCORE A L'ECART DU
GRAND FRAIS, EN BONNE CORRESPONDANCE AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS DES
MODELES.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL ET D'UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST ET ATTERRIR SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A
SAMEDI. UNE RESSORTIE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR EST PREVUE SAMEDI
SOIR, PUIS IL DEVRAIT FUSIONNER EN COURS DE WEEK-END AVEC UN FRONT
FROID. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST ASSEZ IMPORTANTE CONCERNANT LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME, LES DERNIERS RUNS AYANT TENDANCE A
RETARDER UN PEU L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR.

JUDE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE SUR LES EAUX
TRES CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TEMPORAIREMENT FAVORABLE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE), ET POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE D'ICI VENDREDI. TOUTEFOIS, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE, LIMITANT SON INTENSIFICATION. CONJUGE AU PASSAGE SUR LE
SUD DE MADAGASCAR, CELA DEVRAIT ENSUITE CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU SYSTEME. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, EN RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, JUDE DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES TOUT EN FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU EN COURS DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI A MOINS DE
100 KM DE TOLIARA POSSIBLEMENT PROCHE DU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE.
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI EN TOUT DEBUT DE
MATINEE. VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLES EN JOURNEE ET SOIREE DE
VENDREDI, POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE NUIT SUIVANTE.
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI ET JUSQU'A SAMEDI
(100-200 MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 200-300 MM POSSIBLES EN MOINS DE 48H).
- MER TRES FORTE (4 A 6M) A PARTIR DE VENDREDI EN JOURNEE, POUVANT SE
PROLONGER JUSQU'A DIMANCHE.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 131223
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 38.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/14 AT 00 UTC:
21.5 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/14 AT 12 UTC:
22.7 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 37.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 140

36H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95

48H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 75

72H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SW: 480 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 165

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED ITS SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL'S WARM SURFACE WATERS. IT HAS
KEPT VERY INTENSE CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN PART OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS CONVECTION SHOWS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION ACCORDING TO
THIS MORNING'S MICROWAVE IMAGES (F18 AT 0118Z, GPM AT 0245Z) AS WELL
AS CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CENTER'S LOCATION IS RATHER
IMPRECISE, ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS. A 0544Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWS WINDS UP TO 38 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS IN SHEARED OR CURVED BAND PATTERNS VARIES BETWEEN 2.5 AND
3.0, GIVING AN ESTIMATED FINAL T-NUMBER OF 3.0-. THESE DIFFERENT
INPUTS ENABLE US TO ESTIMATE THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AT 40 KT, WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS PROBABLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CHANNEL AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARDS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN EXIT TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

JUDE SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (LOW WIND SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE), AND COULD
REACH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY TOMORROW FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH. COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR,
THIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS
IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN, JUDE SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND THE MIDDLE OF THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT NEAR THE NORTH OF TOLIARA AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY (100-200 MM IN
24H, LOCALLY 300 MM POSSIBLE).
- VERY ROUGH SEA (4 TO 6M) FROM FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130650
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/12/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 37.7 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 0

24H: 14/03/2025 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SO: 325 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 140

36H: 14/03/2025 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95

48H: 15/03/2025 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 335 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 0

60H: 15/03/2025 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 75

72H: 16/03/2025 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SO: 480 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 165

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A CONTINUE A SE DEPLACER
VERS LE SUD-EST SUR LES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. UNE TRES
INTENSE CONVECTION S'EST MAINTENUE, SURTOUT DANS LA PARTIE SUD-EST DU
SYSTEME ET MONTRE UN GAIN D'ORGANISATION D'APRES LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES DE LA MATINEE (F18 A 0118Z, GPM VERS 0245Z) ET L'IMAGERIE
SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE. LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE EST ASSEZ
IMPRECISE, ESTIMEE DANS LA PARTIE NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE.
UNE PASSE ASCAT-B PARTIELLE A 0544Z SUR L'EST DE LA CIRCULATION
MONTRE DES VENTS JUSQU'A 38 KT. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE OU EN BANDE INCURVEE VARIE ENTRE 2.5 ET 3.0, DONNANT UN
NOMBRE T FINAL ESTIME A 3.0-. CES DIFFERENTS ELEMENTS PERMETTENT
D'ESTIMER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A 40 KT AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX
PROBABLEMENT SITUES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL ET D'UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST ET ATTERRIR SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA VENDREDI SOIR. UNE RESSORTIE AU
SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR EST PREVUE SAMEDI SOIR, PUIS IL DEVRAIT
FUSIONNER EN COURS DE WEEK-END AVEC UN FRONT FROID.

JUDE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION SUR LES EAUX TRES CHAUDES
DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TEMPORAIREMENT
FAVORABLE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE), ET
POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI
VENDREDI. TOUTEFOIS, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER A PARTIR DE
LA NUIT PROCHAINE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LIMITANT SON
INTENSIFICATION. CONJUGE AU PASSAGE SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR, CELA
DEVRAIT ENSUITE CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, EN RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN, JUDE DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- ATTERRISSAGE PREVU ENTRE LE DEBUT ET MILIEU DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A
SAMEDI A PROXIMITE NORD DE TOLIARA AU STADE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE NUIT DE JEUDI A
VENDREDI OU VENDREDI MATIN. VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE POSSIBLE EN
JOURNEE ET SOIREE DE VENDREDI.
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI ET JUSQU'A SAMEDI
(100-200 MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 300 MM POSSIBLES).
- MER TRES FORTE (4 A 6M) A PARTIR DE VENDREDI EN JOURNEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 130628
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 37.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS AND UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/13 AT 18 UTC:
20.9 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/14 AT 06 UTC:
22.1 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/12/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 36.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 305 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

24H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 85

36H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 445 SW: 295 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 120

48H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 175 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE JUDE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OUT TO SEA NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE ZAMBEZE RIVER AT AROUND 2230Z. THE POSITION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WITH WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BEIRA
AND QUELIMANE STATIONS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW CLOSE TO THE
CENTER, ALLOWING A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.5-. JUDE HAS THEREFORE BEEN
RECLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH WINDS OF 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARDS, CROSSING THE CHANNEL AND LANDING OVER
SOUTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA LATE ON FRIDAY.
AN EXIT TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE DAY,
BUT IT SHOULD MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE
GUIDELINES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE COULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW
SHEAR, GOOD CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS), AND ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY FROM THURSDAY EVENING, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
OCEAN, JUDE SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY. STRONG STORM
WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM FRIDAY DURING THE DAY (100-200MM IN 24H).
- HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SEAS 4 TO 6M FROM FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130034
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/12/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 36.7 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SO: 305 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2025 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 75

24H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 85

36H: 14/03/2025 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 445 SO: 295 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 120

48H: 15/03/2025 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 175 NO: 0

60H: 15/03/2025 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 0

72H: 16/03/2025 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE JUDE A CONTINUE SON
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST ET SEMBLE ETRE RESSORTI EN MER AU
NIVEAU DE L'EMBOUCHURE DU ZAMBEZE VERS 2230Z. LA POSITION RESTE
INCERTAINE MAIS A ETE AJUSTEE AVEC LES OBSERVATIONS DE VENTS DES
STATIONS DE BEIRA ET DE QUELIMANE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST
DORENAVANT PROCHE DU CENTRE ET PERMET DE FAIRE UNE ESTIMATION DVORAK
A 2.5-. JUDE EST DONC RECLASSER AU STADE DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE AVEC
DES VENTS DE 30KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. SOUS LA INFLUENCE
D'UNE POUSSEE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST, TRAVERSER LE CANAL ET
ATTERRIR SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA EN
FIN DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. UNE RESSORTIE A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR EST
POSSIBLE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, TOUTEFOIS, IL DEVRAIT FUSIONNER EN COURS
DE WEEK-END AVEC UN FRONT FROID. IL Y A ASSEZ PEU DE DISPERSION ENTRE
LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JUDE POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER EN CIRCULANT SUR
LES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TEMPORAIREMENT
FAVORABLE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, BONNE CONVERGENCE EN BASSES COUCHES),
ET ATTEINDRE A NOUVEAU LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.
TOUTEFOIS, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE RENFORCER A PARTIR
DE CE SOIR SOIR, A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LIMITANT SON
INTENSIFICATION. CONJUGE AU PASSAGE SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR, CELA
DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, EN RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN, JUDE DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT PERDRE
SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT PROBABLE A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI.
VENTS DE FORTE TEMPETE POSSIBLE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.
- FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI EN JOURNEE (100-200MM EN 24H).
- MER FORTE A TRES FORTE 4 A 6M A PARTIR DE VENDREDI EN JOURNEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 130025
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 36.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 270 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/13 AT 12 UTC:
19.8 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/14 AT 00 UTC:
21.5 S / 40.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121824
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 35.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 205 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 140

36H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 175

48H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 95

60H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 360 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE JUDE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE CONTINUED
MOVING SOUTHEAST. ITS EXACT POSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WITH WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BEIRA AND QUELIMANE
STATIONS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS WEAK NEAR THE CENTER, BUT IS
MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE TRACK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
OVERNIGHT. JUDE SHOULD THEN CROSS THE CHANNEL AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR IN THE TOLIARA PROVINCE LATE ON FRIDAY. JUDE
MAY EMERGE TO EAST OF MADAGASCAR LATER ON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE COULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW
SHEAR, GOOD CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS), AND ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY FROM THURSDAY EVENING, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
OCEAN, JUDE SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAINS (50-100MM OVERNIGHT)
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ON THE COASTLINE
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE, FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H)
- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEA (4 TO 6M)=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121824
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/12/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 35.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2025 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 0

24H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 205 SO: 280 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 185 NO: 140

36H: 14/03/2025 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SO: 305 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 175

48H: 14/03/2025 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 95

60H: 15/03/2025 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SO: 360 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 15/03/2025 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SO: 230 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE JUDE SEMBLE AVOIR
CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. LA POSITION EXACTE
DE CE DERNIER RESTE INCERTAINE MAIS A ETE AJUSTEE AVEC LES
OBSERVATIONS DE VENTS DES STATIONS DE BEIRA ET DE QUELIMANE.
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE RESTE FAIBLE PROCHE DU CENTRE, ELLE EST PLUS
MARQUEE SUR LE LITTORAL.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. SOUS LA INFLUENCE
D'UNE POUSSEE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN COURS EN SECONDE PARTIE DE
NUIT. PAR LA SUITE, JUDE DEVRAIT TRAVERSER LE CANAL ET ATTERRIR SUR
LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA EN FIN DE
JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. UNE RESSORTIE A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR EST POSSIBLE
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, TOUTEFOIS, IL DEVRAIT FUSIONNER EN COURS DE
WEEK-END AVEC UN FRONT FROID.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JUDE POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER EN CIRCULANT SUR
LES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TEMPORAIREMENT
FAVORABLE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, BONNE CONVERGENCE EN BASSES COUCHES),
ET ATTEINDRE A NOUVEAU LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.
TOUTEFOIS, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE RENFORCER A PARTIR
DE JEUDI SOIR, A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. CONJUGE AU PASSAGE
SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR, CELA DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU SYSTEME. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, EN RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN, JUDE
DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN
FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE SOFALA) :
- FORTES PLUIES (50-100MM ENCORE CETTE NUIT).
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE SUR LE LITTORAL CETTE NUIT
- AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI.
- FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H)
- MER FORTE A TRES FORTE 4 A 6M.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 121816
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 35.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/13 AT 06 UTC:
19.3 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/13 AT 18 UTC:
20.4 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121259
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 35.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 110

24H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 165 NW: 165

36H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 155

48H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 155

60H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 95

72H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, JUDE'S CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS. ITS EXACT POSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WITH CAIA'S 09Z OBSERVATIONS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WEAK NEAR THE CENTER, BUT IS MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG
THE COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE TRACK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
OVERNIGHT. JUDE SHOULD THEN CROSS THE CHANNEL AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR IN THE TOLIARA PROVINCE LATE ON FRIDAY. JUDE
MAY EMERGE TO EAST OF MADAGASCAR LATER ON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE COULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, IN A TEMPORARILY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW
SHEAR, GOOD CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS), AND ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY FROM THURSDAY EVENING, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
OCEAN, JUDE SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

SOUTHERN MALAWI AND MOZAMBIQUE (ZAMBEZIA, TETE AND MANICA PROVINCES):
- HEAVY RAINS LOCALLY POSSIBLE (50MM IN 24H)
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE NIGHTFALL

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 300MM)
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ON THE COASTLINE
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE, FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H)
- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEA (4 TO 6M)=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121259
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/12/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 35.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 110

24H: 13/03/2025 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SO: 165 NO: 165

36H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 155

48H: 14/03/2025 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 155

60H: 15/03/2025 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 470 SO: 370 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 95

72H: 15/03/2025 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE JUDE SEMBLE AVOIR
AMORCE SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. LA POSITION EXACTE DE
CE DERNIER RESTE INCERTAINE. LA PRESSION CENTRALE A ETE AJUSTEE AVEC
LES OBSERVATIONS DE CAIA DE 09Z. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE RESTE FAIBLE
PROCHE DU CENTRE, ELLE EST PLUS MARQUEE SUR LE LITTORAL.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. SOUS LA INFLUENCE
D'UNE POUSSEE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE. PAR
LA SUITE, JUDE DEVRAIT TRAVERSER LE CANAL ET ATTERRIR SUR LE
SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR SUR LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA EN FIN DE JOURNEE
DE VENDREDI. UNE RESSORTIE A L'EST DE MADAGASCAR EST POSSIBLE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, TOUTEFOIS, IL DEVRAIT FUSIONNER EN COURS DE WEEK-END AVEC
UN FRONT FROID.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JUDE POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER EN CIRCULANT SUR
LES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TEMPORAIREMENT
FAVORABLE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, BONNE CONVERGENCE EN BASSES COUCHES),
ET ATTEINDRE A NOUVEAU LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.
TOUTEFOIS, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT SE RENFORCER A PARTIR
DE JEUDI SOIR, A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. CONJUGE AU PASSAGE
SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR, CELA DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU SYSTEME. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, EN RESSORTANT SUR L'OCEAN, JUDE
DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES EN
FUSIONNANT AVEC UN FRONT FROID.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

SUD MALAWI ET MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCES ZAMBEZIA, TETE ET MANICA) :
- FORTES PLUIES LOCALEMENT ENCORE POSSIBLES (50MM EN 24H)
- AMELIORATION AVANT LA NUIT PROCHAINE

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE SOFALA) :
- FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 300MM).
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE SUR LE LITTORAL LA NUIT PROCHAINE
- AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) :
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI.
- FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H)
- MER FORTE A TRES FORTE 4 A 6M.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 121214
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 35.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/13 AT 00 UTC:
19.0 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/13 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 120618
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 34.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
18.6 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/13 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 105 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 35.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 75

72H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 0

120H: 2025/03/16 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 425 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD CONFIGURATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. JUDE IS
STILL MOVING OVER LAND, WITH ITS CENTER ESTIMATED AT 150NM INLAND.
PERIPHERAL BANDS CURRENTLY AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN CABO DELGADO
PROVINCE AND SOFALA PROVINCE IN MOZAMBIQUE, AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN
TANZANIA. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS AND THEN EASTWARDS, PASSING OVER SOUTHERN
MALAWI OVERNIGHT. AN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL DRIVEN BY THIS RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, JUDE SHOULD CROSS THE CHANNEL AND LAND OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA LATE ON FRIDAY. AN EXIT TO THE
EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE DAY. THERE ARE FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCES ON THE TRACK, HOWEVER A DISPERSION
IS TO BE NOTED IN TERMS OF TIMING. TO NAME BUT TWO, GFS IS MUCH
FASTER THAN IFS ON THE EXIT AND SEA TRANSIT OVER THE CHANNEL. THE
RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS,
APPROACHING AIFS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 25KT AS IT PASSES
OVER LAND. THEN, ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, BENEFITING
FROM FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW,
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL), IT COULD INTENSIFY
AGAIN TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AGAIN. AFTER A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OVER MADAGASCAR, IT COULD
INTENSIFY AGAIN TO THE EAST AND BEGIN A TRANSITION TO THE
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- SOUTHERN TANZANIA, NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO AND NAMPULA
PROVINCES): IMPROVEMENT IN HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
- MOZAMBIQUE (MANICA AND SOFALA PROVINCES): HEAVY RAINS (200-250MM IN
48H).
- MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE): GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY. ARRIVAL OF VERY HEAVY SEAS LATE ON FRIDAY
AROUND CAPE SAINT VINCENT. HEAVY RAIN FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.


THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW AT 0600Z.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111238
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/12/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 35.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2025 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 12/03/2025 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2025 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 75

72H: 14/03/2025 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2025 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 240 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 0

120H: 16/03/2025 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SO: 425 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, PEU D'EVOLUTION EN TERMES DE
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE. JUDE SE DEPLACE TOUJOURS SUR TERRE AVEC UN
CENTRE ESTIME A 150NM A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES. DES BANDES
PERIPHERIQUES CONCERNENT ACTUELLEMENT ESSENTIELLEMENT LE NORD DE LA
PROVINCE DE CABO DELGADO ET LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA AU MOZAMBIQUE AINSI
QUE LE SUD-EST DE LA TANZANIE. LES VENTS SONT ESTIMES A 25KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. SOUS LA INFLUENCE
D'UNE POUSSEE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS L'EST EN
TRANSITANT SUR LE SUD DE MALAWI LA NUIT PROCHAINE. UNE RESSORTIE DANS
LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EST PREVUE DANS LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI.
PUIS TOUJOURS PILOTEE PAR CETTE DORSALE AU NORD DU SYSTEME, JUDE
DEVRAIT TRAVERSER LE CANAL ET ATTERRIR SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR SUR
LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. UNE RESSORTIE A
L'EST DE MADAGASCAR EST POSSIBLE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. IL EXISTE PEU DE
DIFFERENCES ENTRE LES GUIDANCES SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, CEPENDANT UNE
DISPERSION EST A NOTER EN TERMES DE TIMING. EN EFFET POUR NE CITER
QU'EUX, GFS EST BEAUCOUP PLUS RAPIDE QUE IFS SUR LA RESSORTIE ET MER
LE TRANSIT AU DESSUS DU CANAL. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, EN SE RAPPROCHANT DE AIFS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JUDE DEVRAIT MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE DE 25KT
LORS DE SON PASSAGE SUR TERRE. PUIS UNE FOIS AU DESSUS DES EAUX
CHAUDES DU CANAL, BENEFICIANT DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES (ALIMENTATION
EN HUMIDITE PAR LE FLUX DE MOUSSON, CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE,
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE), IL POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU S'INTENSIFIER POUR
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVANT DE TOUCHER DE
NOUVEAU TERRE. APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE SUR MADAGASCAR, IL
POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU S'INTENSIFIER A L'EST ET ENTAMER UNE TRANSITION
VERS LE STADE DE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :
- SUD DE LA TANZANIE, NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE CABO DELGADO ET
NAMPULA) : AMELIORATION DES FORTES PLUIES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.
- MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE MANICA ET DE SOFALA) : FORTES PLUIES
(200-250MM EN 48H).
- MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE TOLIARA) : ARRIVEE DU COUP DE VENT EN
JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE PROBABLE. ARRIVEE D'UNE
MER TRES FORTE EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI AUTOUR DU CAP SAINT
VINCENT. FORTES PLUIES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI EN JOURNEE.

L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS
REGULIERS. PROCHAIN BULLETIN DEMAIN A 0600Z.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 36.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 120

72H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 315 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 75

120H: 2025/03/16 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD CONFIGURATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. JUDE IS
STILL MOVING OVER LAND, WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTER AT 150NM INLAND.
PERIPHERAL BANDS CURRENTLY AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN PROVINCES OF
NAMPULA AND CABO DELGADO IN MOZAMBIQUE. WINDS ARE DECREASING AND
ESTIMATED AT 25KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS AND THEN EASTWARDS, PASSING OVER SOUTHERN
MALAWI OVERNIGHT. AN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL DRIVEN BY THIS RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, JUDE SHOULD CROSS THE CHANNEL AND LAND OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA LATE ON FRIDAY. AN EXIT TO THE
EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE DAY. THERE ARE FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCES ON THE TRACK, HOWEVER A DISPERSION
IS TO BE NOTED IN TERMS OF TIMING. TO NAME BUT TWO, GFS IS MUCH
FASTER THAN IFS ON THE EXIT AND SEA TRANSIT OVER THE CHANNEL. THE
RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS,
APPROACHING AIFS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 25KT AS IT PASSES
OVER LAND. THEN, ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, BENEFITING
FROM FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW,
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL), IT COULD INTENSIFY
AGAIN TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AGAIN. AFTER A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OVER MADAGASCAR, IT COULD
INTENSIFY AGAIN TO THE EAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- SOUTHERN TANZANIA, NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE (CABO DELGADO AND NAMPULA
PROVINCES): HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM IN 24H). IMPROVEMENT AT THE END OF
THE DAY.
- MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZIA, NIASSA AND TETE) AND SOUTHERN
MALAWI: HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H) BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
EVENING.
- MOZAMBIQUE (MANICA AND SOFALA PROVINCES): HEAVY RAINS (200-250MM IN
48H) FROM WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110645
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/12/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 36.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2025 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 12/03/2025 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2025 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SO: 165 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 120

72H: 14/03/2025 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2025 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 315 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 75

120H: 16/03/2025 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, PEU D'EVOLUTION EN TERMES DE
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE. JUDE SE DEPLACE TOUJOURS SUR TERRE AVEC UN
CENTRE ESTIME A 150NM A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES. DES BANDES
PERIPHERIQUES CONCERNENT ACTUELLEMENT ESSENTIELLEMENT L'EST DES
PROVINCES DE NAMPULA ET DE CABO DELGADO AU MOZAMBIQUE. LES VENTS SONT
EN BAISSE ET SONT ESTIMES A 25KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. SOUS LA INFLUENCE
D'UNE POUSSEE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS L'EST EN
TRANSITANT SUR LE SUD DE MALAWI LA NUIT PROCHAINE. UNE RESSORTIE DANS
LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EST PREVUE DANS LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI.
PUIS TOUJOURS PILOTEE PAR CETTE DORSALE AU NORD DU SYSTEME, JUDE
DEVRAIT TRAVERSER LE CANAL ET ATTERRIR SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR SUR
LA PROVINCE DE TOLIARA EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. UNE RESSORTIE A
L'EST DE MADAGASCAR EST POSSIBLE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. IL EXISTE PEU DE
DIFFERENCES ENTRE LES GUIDANCES SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, CEPENDANT UNE
DISPERSION EST A NOTER EN TERMES DE TIMING. EN EFFET POUR NE CITER
QU'EUX, GFS EST BEAUCOUP PLUS RAPIDE QUE IFS SUR LA RESSORTIE ET MER
LE TRANSIT AU DESSUS DU CANAL. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, EN SE RAPPROCHANT DE AIFS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, JUDE DEVRAIT MAINTENIR UNE INTENSITE DE 25KT
LORS DE SON PASSAGE SUR TERRE. PUIS UNE FOIS AU DESSUS DES EAUX
CHAUDES DU CANAL, BENEFICIANT DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES (ALIMENTATION
EN HUMIDITE PAR LE FLUX DE MOUSSON, CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL MODERE,
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE), IL POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU S'INTENSIFIER POUR
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVANT DE TOUCHER DE
NOUVEAU TERRE. APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE SUR MADAGASCAR, IL
POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU S'INTENSIFIER A L'EST.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :
- SUD DE LA TANZANIE, NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE CABO DELGADO ET
NAMPULA) : FORTES PLUIES (100-150MM EN 24H). AMELIORATION EN FIN DE
JOURNEE.
- MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZIA, NIASSA ET TETE) ET SUD DU MALAWI
: FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H) ENTRE CE SOIR ET DEMAIN SOIR.
- MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE MANICA ET DE SOFALA) : FORTES PLUIES
(200-250MM EN 48H) A PARTIR DE MERCREDI EN JOURNEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 37.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 390 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 425 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 85

120H: 2025/03/16 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=X (OVERLAND)

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS
VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARED FOR THE DEPRESSION OVER TERRE JUDE. HOWEVER,
THE PERIPHERAL BANDS REMAIN ACTIVE. THE 1915Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS OF ALMOST 35 KT PERSIST ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COAST
(ZAMBEZA PROVINCE).

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. BY MID-WEEK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MALAWI,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT SCENARIO
SUGGESTS AN EXIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. IT WOULD THEN FOLLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR BEFORE A PROBABLE LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 25-30KT. A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS THEN
EXPECTED AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA, DUE TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR,
STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL).

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE, SOUTH OF CABO DELGADO, NIASSA):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H)
- GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA, MANICA, ZAMBEZA AND TETE PROVINCES) AND SOUTHERN
MALAWI :
- HEAVY RAINS (200-400 MM IN 48H, OR MORE THAN 400-500MM IN 72H OVER
SOFALA PROVINCE).
- STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOFALA/ZAMBEZIA
COAST. RAPID IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110050
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/12/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 37.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SO: 390 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2025 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 12/03/2025 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 12/03/2025 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2025 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 65

72H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 140

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2025 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 425 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 85

120H: 16/03/2025 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=X

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA 'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PROCHE DU
CENTRE A QUASIMENT DISPARU POUR LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE JUDE. LES
BANDES PERIPHERIQUES RESTENT CEPENDANT ACTIVES. LA PASSE ASCAT DE
1915Z MONTRENT QUE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE PRES DE 35 KT SUBSISTE LE
LONG DE LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE (PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZA).

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUMIS AU FLUX D'EST PILOTE
PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD DU MADAGASCAR. EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER A PROXIMITE SUD DE LA
FRONTIERE DU MALAWI EN ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE AU
SUD-EST GUIDE PAR LA POUSSEE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL. LE
SCENARIO ACTUEL SUGGERE AINSI UNE RESSORTIE SUR LES EAUX CHAUDES DU
CANAL, D'ICI MERCREDI OU JEUDI. IL SUIVRAIT ALORS UNE TRAJECTOIRE
SUD-EST LE DIRIGEANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR AVANT UN
PROBABLE ATTERISSAGE VENDREDI SOIR OU SAMEDI.

COTE INTENSITE, JUDE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A FAIBLIR AVEC DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX LE LONG DE LA COTE DE 25-30KT. UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION
EST PAR LA SUITE PREVUE LORS DE SA RESSORTIE EN MER, DU FAIT DE
BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (ALIMENTATION EN HUMIDITE PAR LE
FLUX DE MOUSSON, CISAILLMENT VERTICAL MODERE, FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE).

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :
MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, SUD DE CABO DELGADO, NIASSA):
- FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H)
- COUP DE VENT LE LONG DES CA TES EN JOURNEE DE MARDI.

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCES SOFALA, MANICA, ZAMBEZA ET TETE) ET SUD MALAWI
:
- FORTES PLUIES (200-400 MM EN 48H, VOIRE PLUS 400-500MM EN 72H SUR
LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA).
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE JEUDI MATIN SUR LE LITTORAL DE SOFALA /
ZAMBEZIA. AMELIORATION RAPIDE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 110005
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 37.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
15.6 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
16.2 S / 35.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101922
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 37.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55

120H: 2025/03/15 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=X (OVERLAND)

JUDE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
LAND. THE PRESSURE MEASURED AT THE NAMPULA STATION AT 1530Z IS 996
HPA LESS THAN 100 KM FROM THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS A
DEPRESSION ON LAND WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35KT ALONG THE
COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. BY MID-WEEK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MALAWI,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT SCENARIO
SUGGESTS AN EXIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. IT WOULD THEN FOLLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 25-30KT. A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS THEN
EXPECTED AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA, DUE TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR,
STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL).

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE, SOUTH OF CABO DELGADO, NIASSA):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H)
- STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST, LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT LATE NEXT NIGHT.

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA, MANICA, ZAMBEZA AND TETE PROVINCES) AND SOUTHERN
MALAWI :
- HEAVY RAINS (200-400 MM IN 48H, OR MORE THAN 400-500MM IN 72H OVER
SOFALA PROVINCE).
- STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOFALA/ZAMBEZIA
COAST. RAPID IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101922
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/12/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 37.9 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2025 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 185 NO: 0

24H: 11/03/2025 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 185 NO: 0

36H: 12/03/2025 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SO: 185 NO: 0

48H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2025 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 0

72H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2025 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 55

120H: 15/03/2025 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 110 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=X

JUDE A CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES AVEC SON
EVOLUTION SUR TERRE. LA PRESSION MESURE A LA STATION DE NAMPULA A
1530Z EST DE 996 HPA A MOINS DE 100 KM DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME. LE
SYSTEME EST UNE DEPRESSION SUR TERRE AVC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIME A
35KT LE LONG DE LA COTE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUMIS AU FLUX D'EST PILOTE
PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD DU MADAGASCAR. EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER A PROXIMITE SUD DE LA
FRONTIERE DU MALAWI EN ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE AU
SUD-EST GUIDE PAR LA POUSSEE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL. LE
SCENARIO ACTUEL SUGGERE AINSI UNE RESSORTIE SUR LES EAUX CHAUDES DU
CANAL, D'ICI MERCREDI OU JEUDI. IL SUIVRAIT ALORS UNE TRAJECTOIRE
SUD-EST LE DIRIGEANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR.

COTE INTENSITE, JUDE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A FAIBLIR AVEC DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX LE LONG DE LA COTE DE 25-30KT. UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION
EST PAR LA SUITE PREVUE LORS DE SA RESSORTIE EN MER, DU FAIT DE
BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (ALIMENTATION EN HUMIDITE PAR LE
FLUX DE MOUSSON, CISAILLMENT VERTICAL MODERE, FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE).

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :
MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, SUD DE CABO DELGADO, NIASSA):
- FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H)
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE LE LONG DES CA TES, AVEC PERSISTANCE
PROBABLE JUSQU'EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE. AMELIORATION SENSIBLE EN
FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE.

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCES SOFALA, MANICA, ZAMBEZA ET TETE) ET SUD MALAWI
:
- FORTES PLUIES (200-400 MM EN 48H, VOIRE PLUS 400-500MM EN 72H SUR
LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA).
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE JEUDI MATIN SUR LE LITTORAL DE SOFALA /
ZAMBEZIA. AMELIORATION RAPIDE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/12/20242025
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 39.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SW: 380 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/13 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 65

120H: 2025/03/15 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 370 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=X (OVERLAND)

JUDE LANDED OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE) NEAR ILHA DE
MOCOAMBIQUE LATER THAN 02UTC, IN THE MATURE STAGE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SINCE THEN, CONVECTION HAS NATURALLY WARMED UP AS IT HAS
MOVED OVERLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS ESTIMATED
USING INDICATIONS FROM THE NAMPULA STATION (OMM:67237). THE PASSAGE
OF THE PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS AT 0645Z STILL PRESENTED WINDS OF 55KT
ALONG THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE RECENT
ORGANIZATION OF THE STRUCTURE AND THE OBJECTIVE DATA, THE SYSTEM WAS
DOWNGRADED TO OVERLAND DEPRESSION FOR 50KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. BY MID-WEEK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MALAWI,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT SCENARIO
SUGGESTS AN EXIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. IT WOULD THEN FOLLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN THE
SHORT TERM OVER MOZAMBIQUE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN
IT EMERGES AT SEA, DUE TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE, SOUTH OF CABO DELGADO, NIASSA):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H)
- STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST, LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT LATE NEXT NIGHT.

MOZAMBIQUE (SOFALA, MANICA AND TETE PROVINCES) AND SOUTHERN MALAWI :
- HEAVY RAINS (200-400 MM IN 48H, OR MORE THAN 400-500MM IN 72H OVER
SOFALA PROVINCE).
- STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOFALA/ZAMBEZIA
COAST. RAPID IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101247
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/12/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 39.0 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SO: 380 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2025 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 285 SO: 155 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 11/03/2025 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 0

36H: 12/03/2025 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 0

48H: 12/03/2025 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 13/03/2025 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2025 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 325 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 65

120H: 15/03/2025 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SO: 370 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=X

JUDE A ATTERRI SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE) PROCHE DE ILHA
DE MOCAMBIQUE PEU APRES 02UTC, AU STADE MATURE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.
DEPUIS, LA CONVECTION S'EST NATURELLEMENT RECHAUFFEE SUITE A SA
PROGRESSION SUR LES TERRES. LA POSITION DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES A
ETE ESTIMEE GRACE AUX INDICATIONS DE LA STATION DE NAMPULA
(OMM:67237). LE PASSAGE DE LA PASSE PARTIELLE ASCAT-B DE 0645Z
PRESENTAIT ENCORE DES VENTS DE 55KT LE LONG DE LA PROVINCE DE
NAMPULA. AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION DE L'ORGANISATION RECENTE DE LA
STRUCTURE DE JUDE ET DES DONNA ES OBJECTIVES, LE SYSTEME A ETE
DECLASSE AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SU TERRE POUR 50KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUMIS AU FLUX D'EST PILOTE
PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD DU MADAGASCAR. EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER A PROXIMITE SUD DE LA
FRONTIERE DU MALAWI EN ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE AU
SUD-EST GUIDE PAR LA POUSSEE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL. LE
SCENARIO ACTUEL SUGGERE AINSI UNE RESSORTIE SUR LES EAUX CHAUDES DU
CANAL, D'ICI MERCREDI OU JEUDI. IL SUIVRAIT ALORS UNE TRAJECTOIRE
SUD-EST LE DIRIGEANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR.

COTE INTENSITE, JUDE DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT A COURT TERME SUR
LES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION EST POSSIBLE
LORS DE SA RESSORTIE EN MER, DU FAIT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, ATMOSPHERIQUES ET OCEANIQUES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :
MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, SUD DE CABO DELGADO, NIASSA):
- FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H)
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE LE LONG DES CA TES, AVEC PERSISTANCE
PROBABLE JUSQU'EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE. AMELIORATION SENSIBLE EN
FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE.

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCES SOFALA, MANICA ET TETE) ET SUD MALAWI :
- FORTES PLUIES (200-400 MM EN 48H, VOIRE PLUS 400-500MM EN 72H SUR
LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA).
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE JEUDI MATIN SUR LE LITTORAL DE SOFALA /
ZAMBEZIA. AMELIORATION RAPIDE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 101220
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (JUDE) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 39.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 190 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 65
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 205 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
15.1 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
15.6 S / 35.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100651
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/12/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 39.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 55

72H: 2025/03/13 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 150

120H: 2025/03/15 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=X (OVERLAND)

JUDE MADE LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE) NEAR
ILHA DE MOCAMBIQUE SHORTLY AFTER 02UTC, IN THE MATURE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GPM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0310Z SHOWS A
PARTICULARLY SOLID INTERNAL STRUCTURE AT 85GHZ, AS WELL AS AT 37GHZ.
ALTHOUGH JUDE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS WARMED SINCE LANDING, IT IS VERY
LIKELY FROM MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS (INCLUDING SSMIS F16) THAT THE
SYSTEM IS STILL GENERATING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS
DOWNGRADED TO THE SUPERIOR STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FOR 60KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. BY MID-WEEK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MALAWI,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ITS TRAJECTORY TO THE SOUTHEAST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT SCENARIO
SUGGESTS AN EXIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. IT WOULD THEN FOLLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JUDE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN THE
SHORT TERM OVER MOZAMBIQUE LANDMASS. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE WHEN IT RE-EMERGES AT SEA, DUE TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL,
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE, SOUTH OF CABO DELGADO):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 300MM)
- STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST, LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING.
- SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE (NIASSA, ZAMBEZIA, SOFALA, MANICA AND TETE PROVINCES) AND
SOUTHERN MALAWI :
- HEAVY RAINS (100M IN 24H, 150-200MM IN 48H, LOCALLY MORE) DURING
THE PASSAGE OF JUDE.
- STORM FORCE WINDS.
- IMPROVING FROM THURSDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100651
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/12/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 39.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2025 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 0

24H: 11/03/2025 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 0

36H: 11/03/2025 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 0

48H: 12/03/2025 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 55

72H: 13/03/2025 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2025 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 150

120H: 15/03/2025 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 380 SO: 305 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=X

JUDE A ATTERRI SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE) PROCHE DE ILHA
DE MOCAMBIQUE PEU APRES 02UTC, AU STADE MATURE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.
LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE GPM DE 0310Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE
PARTICULIEREMENT SOLIDE EN 85GHZ, AINSI QU'EN 37GHZ. BIEN QUE LA
STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE DE JUDE SE SOIT RECHAUFFEE DEPUIS L'ATTERRISSAGE,
IL EST TRES PROBABLE AU VU DES OBSERVATIONS MICRO-ONDE (SSMIS F16
COMPRISE) QUE LE SYSTEME GENERE ENCORE EN SON SEIN DES VENTS
DESTRUCTEURS. LE SYSTEME EST DECLASSE AU STADE SUPERIEUR DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE POUR 60KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUMIS AU FLUX D'EST PILOTE
PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD DU MADAGASCAR. EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER A PROXIMITE SUD DE LA
FRONTIERE DU MALAWI EN ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE AU
SUD-EST GUIDE PAR LA POUSSEE D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD DU CANAL. LE
SCENARIO ACTUEL SUGGERE AINSI UNE RESSORTIE SUR LES EAUX CHAUDES DU
CANAL, D'ICI MERCREDI OU JEUDI. IL SUIVRAIT ALORS UNE TRAJECTOIRE
SUD-EST LE DIRIGEANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR.

COTE INTENSITE, JUDE DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT A COURT TERME SUR
LES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION EST POSSIBLE
LORS DE SA RESSORTIE EN MER, DU FAIT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, ATMOSPHERIQUES ET OCEANIQUES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :
MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, SUD DE CABO DELGADO):
- FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 300MM)
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE LE LONG DES CA TES, AVEC PERSISTANCE
PROBABLE JUSQU'EN SOIREE.
- AMELIORATION SENSIBLE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI.

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCES NIASSA, ZAMBEZIA, SOFALA, MANICA ET TETE) ET
SUD MALAWI :
- FORTES PLUIES (100M EN 24H, 150-200MM EN 48H, LOCALEMENT PLUS) LORS
DU TRANSIT DE JUDE.
- VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE.
- AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE JEUDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 100619
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 39.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
15.1 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
15.3 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100055
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/12/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 40.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2025/03/12 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 140

120H: 2025/03/15 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 435 SW: 490 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 90

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN DID NOT REAPPEAR, LEAVING A
CENTER OFTEN EMBEDDED IN THE CDO, BENEATH STILL VERY COLD TOPS. THE
AMSU PASSES DID NOT SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A CLEAR EYE IN 89GHZ.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 70KT. IN THE ABSENCE OF
QUALITATIVE MICROWAVE AND ASCAT PASSES, THE ESTIMATION OF THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE
SYSTEM REMAINS DRIVEN TO THE EASTERLY FLOW CREATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. JUDE SEEMS TO HAVE LANDED OR IS ABOUT TO
LAND CLOSE TO ILHA DE MOCAMBIQUE. LATER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE
CLOSE TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI BEFORE HEADING
TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DRIVE BY THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE NORTH-EAST. IT WILL THEN FOLLOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR.


JUDE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER MOZAMBIQUE. A RENEWED
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN IT RETURNS OFFSHORE, DUE TO GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE, SOUTH OF CABO DELGADO):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY 300MM).
- STORM FORCE VERY LIKELY AND HURRICANE FORCE CLOSE TO THE LANDFALL
- WAVES OF 6M TO 8M. 50CM TO 1M, LOCALLY 1M50 SURGE.
- SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING AND ON
TUESDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE (NIASSA, ZAMBEZIA, SOFALA, MANICA AND TETE PROVINCE) AND
SOUTH MALAWI:
- HEAVY RAIN (100MM IN 24H, 150-200MM IN 48H, MORE LOCALLY) DURING
JUDE CROSSING
- IMPROVEMENT FROM THURSDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100055
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/12/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 40.6 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2025 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SO: 335 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 11/03/2025 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 11/03/2025 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 12/03/2025 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 12/03/2025 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 140

120H: 15/03/2025 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 435 SO: 490 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 305 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 90 NO: 90

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL
N'EST PAS REAPPARU, LAISSANT UN CENTRE SOUVENT NOYE DANS LA MASSE,
SOUS DES SOMMETS TOUJOURS TRES FROIDS. LES PASSES AMSU NE MONTRAIENT
PAS LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL EN 89GHZ. EN CONSEQUENCE L'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSEE A 70KT. EN L'ABSENCE DE PASSES MICRO-ONDES QUALITATIVES ET
ASCAT, L'ESTIMATION DE LA POSITION INITIALE ET DE L'INTENSITE RESTENT
ASSEZ INCERTAINES.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. A COURTE
ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUMIS AU FLUX D'EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD DU MADAGASCAR. JUDE SEMBLE AVOIR
ATTERRI OU ETRE EN COURS D'ATTERRISAGE A PROXIMITE DE ILHA DE
MOCAMBIQUE. A PLUS LONG TERME, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER A
PROXIMITE DE LA FRONTIERE ENTRE LE MOZAMBIQUE ET LE MALAWI AVANT DE
RESSORTIR AU DESSUS DU CANAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SE RENFORCANT AU NORD-EST. IL SUIVRAIT
ALORS UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST LE DIRIGEANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR.

JUDE DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT SUR LES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. UNE
NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION EST POSSIBLE LORS DE SA RESSORTI EN MER, DU
FAIT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, ATMOSPHERIQUES ET
OCEANIQUES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, SUD DE CABO DELGADO):
- FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 300MM)
- TEMPETE TRES PROBABLES ET OURAGAN PROCHE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT
- VAGUES DE 6 A 8M. SURCOTE DE 50CM A 1M LOCALEMENT 1M50
- AMELIORATION SENSIBLE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCES NIASSA, ZAMBEZIA, SOFALA, MANICA ET TETE) ET
SUD MALAWI :
- FORTES PLUIES (100M EN 24H, 150-200MM EN 48H, LOCALEMENT PLUS) LORS
DU PASSAGE DE JUDE
- AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE JEUDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 100015
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 10/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JUDE) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 40.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
14.9 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
15.1 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091932
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/12/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 41.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/10 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 0

36H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/12 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 130

120H: 2025/03/14 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 510 SW: 555 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, JUDE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY,
WITH THE TEMPORARY APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
PARTICULARLY COLD. THE EVENING'S MICROWAVE IMAGES (SSMIS AND GMI)
CONFIRM THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THE EYEWALL DOES NOT APPEAR
SYSTEMATICALLY CLOSED IN 89GHZ. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
A SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS ABOVE 15KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.5 OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN
AGREEMENT WITH THESE ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 75KT AT
18Z.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE
SYSTEM REMAINS DRIVEN TO THE EASTERLY FLOW CREATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. JUDE SHOULD LAND CLOSE TO ILHA DE
MOCAMBIQUE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. LATER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE
CLOSE TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI BEFORE HEADING
TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DRIVE BY THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE NORTH-EAST. IT WILL THEN FOLLOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR.


GIVEN THE SHORT TIME AVAILABLE BEFORE LANDFALL AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR, JUDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER
MOZAMBIQUE. A RENEWED INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN IT RETURNS
OFFSHORE, DUE TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE), MAYOTTE AND COMOROS:
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-200MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY 300MM).
- STORM FORCE VERY LIKELY AND HURRICANE FORCE CLOSE TO THE LANDFALL
- WAVES OF 6M TO 8M. 50CM TO 1M, LOCALLY 1M50 SURGE.
- SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING AND ON
TUESDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE (NIASSA, ZAMBEZIA, SOFALA, MANICA AND TETE PROVINCE) AND
MALAWI:
- HEAVY RAIN (100MM IN 24 HOURS) POSSIBLE DURING JUDE CROSSING
- IMPROVEMENT FROM THURSDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091932
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/12/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 41.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2025 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SO: 195 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 65

24H: 10/03/2025 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 0

36H: 11/03/2025 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 11/03/2025 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 12/03/2025 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 130

120H: 14/03/2025 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 510 SO: 555 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 350 SO: 335 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 80 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE JUDE
S'EST NETTEMENT AMELIOREE AVEC L'APPARITION TEMPORAIRE D'UN OEIL. LES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX SONT PARTICULIEREMENT FROIDS. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
DE LA SOIREE (SSMIS ET GMI) CONFIRMENT L'AMELIORATION DE LA
STRUCTURE. TOUTEFOIS LE MUR DE L'OEIL N'APPARAIT PAS SYSTEMATIQUEMENT
FERME EN 89GHZ. CELA POURRAIT ETRE LIE A LA PRESENCE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST ANALYSE A PLUS DE 15KT PAR LE CIMSS. LES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES SE SITUENT ENTRE 4.5 ET 5.5 AU COURS
DES DERNIERES HEURES. EN ACCORD AVEC CES ESTIMATIONS L'INTENSITE EST
ANALYSEE A 75KT A 18Z.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. A COURTE
ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUMIS AU FLUX D'EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD DU MADAGASCAR. JUDE DEVRAIT ATTERRIR A
PROXIMITE DE ILHA DE MOCAMBIQUE AU COURS DES 6 PROCHAINES HEURES. A
PLUS LONG TERME, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER A PROXIMITE DE LA
FRONTIERE ENTRE LE MOZAMBIQUE ET LE MALAWI AVANT DE RESSORTIR AU
DESSUS DU CANAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE SE RENFORCANT AU NORD-EST. IL SUIVRAIT ALORS UNE
TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST LE DIRIGEANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR.

ETANT DONNE LE PEU DE TEMPS DONT JUDE DISPOSE AVANT SON ATTERRISAGE
ET DE LA PRESENCE DE LA CONTRAINTE DE SUD, IL N'EST PAS PREVU QUE LE
SYSTEME ATTEIGNE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. PAR LA SUITE
IL DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT SUR LES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. UNE
NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION EST POSSIBLE LORS DE SA RESSORTI EN MER, DU
FAIT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, ATMOSPHERIQUES ET
OCEANIQUES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA), MAYOTTE ET COMORES :
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, SUD DE CABO DELGADO):
- FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 300MM)
- TEMPETE TRES PROBABLES ET OURAGAN PROCHE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT
- VAGUES DE 6 A 8M. SURCOTE DE 50CM A 1M LOCALEMENT 1M50
- AMELIORATION SENSIBLE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCES NIASSA, ZAMBEZIA, SOFALA, MANICA ET TETE) ET
MALAWI :
- FORTES PLUIES (100M EN 24H) POSSIBLES LORS DU PASSAGE DE JUDE
- AMELIORATION A PARTIR DE JEUDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 091810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JUDE) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 41.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 280 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 06 UTC:
15.2 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
15.4 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 091219
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 42.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 280 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 15
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
15.0 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
15.0 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 090620
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 43.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
15.0 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 06 UTC:
15.0 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 5 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090100
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 44.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/09 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/10 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/10 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0

48H: 2025/03/11 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/11 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2025/03/12 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/13 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2025/03/14 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED CLOSE TO
THE CENTER, WITH A BANDED PATTERN THAT CAN GIVE A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
T OF 3.0-. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO VERY COLD FAR FROM THE SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT, NOW REACHING THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE
ASCAT PASS OF 1910UTC SHOWS VALUES OF UP TO 39KT, WITH CIRCULATION
CONCENTRATED AT THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA, JUDE IS MAINTAINED
AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM, WITH 10-MIN WINDS OF 40KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK, WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOVEMENT AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION. IN THE SHORT TERM,
THE SYSTEM REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MAINTAINING A
GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AWAY TO THE SOUTH OFF
MAYOTTE AND THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY OVER
THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA, CLOSE TO ILHA DE MOCAMBIQUE, WITH A SLIGHT
DELAY OF ALMOST 3 HOURS COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS BROADLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION AND
TIMING. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER THE
MOZAMBICAN PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZIA BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE CHANNEL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTHEAST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY SHEAR), JUDE SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY (A LITTLE MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST) BETWEEN NOW AND ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEREFORE HIT THE MOZAMBICAN COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY MONDAY.
IT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE MOZAMBICAN COAST. A FURTHER
REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN IT RE-EMERGES AT SEA, DUE TO
GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200M ON THE HIGHER GROUNDS)
GRADUALLY FADING

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150 MM IN 24HRS) ON THE COAST UP TO MONDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE ON THE COASTLINE UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES EXPECTED UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.

MAYOTTE/COMOROS:
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) LIKELY UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- CURRENT DETERIORATION AHEAD OF SYSTEM, CAUSING HEAVY RAIN
(100-200MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY 300MM).
- GALE FORCE WINDS THEN STORMS VERY LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO THE IMPACT ZONE.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M. 50CM TO 1M SURGE NEAR LANDFALL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090100
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/12/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 44.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2025 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 10/03/2025 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 10/03/2025 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 0

48H: 11/03/2025 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 0

60H: 11/03/2025 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 12/03/2025 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2025 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

120H: 14/03/2025 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SE RENFORCE A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE POUVANT DONNER
UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN T DE 3.0-. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST AUSSI TRES
FROIDE LOIN DU SYSTEME DANS LE QUADRANT OUEST, GAGNANT DES A PRESENT
LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1910UTC PERMET DE NOTER
DES VALEURS ATTEIGNANT LES 39KT AVEC UNE CIRCULATION QUI SE CONCENTRE
AU NIVEAU DU CENTRE. SUIVANT CES DONNEES, JUDE EST MAINTENUE AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS MOYENNES SUR 10MIN DE
40KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, AVEC UN
DEPLACEMENT UN PEU RALENTI ET UNE LOCALISATION UN PEU PLUS SUD. A
COURTE ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUMIS AU FLUX D'EST PILOTE PAR LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD DU MADAGASCAR. GARDANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME S'ELOIGNE VERS LE
LARGE SUD DE MAYOTTE ET DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES. LA ATTERRISSAGE
RESTE PREVU EN COURS DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI SUR LA PROVINCE DE
NAMPULA A PROXIMITE DE ILHA DE MOCAMBIQUE, AVEC UN LEGER RETARD DE
PRES DE 3H PAR RAPPORT A LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE. LES DERNIERES
GUIDANCES SONT PLUTOT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO, MEME S'IL RESTE UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA LOCALISATION EXACTE DE L'ATTERRISSAGE ET LE
TIMING. A PLUS LONG TERME, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRANSITER AU DESSUS DE
LA PROVINCE MOZAMBICAINE DE ZAMBEZIA AVANT DE RESSORTIR AU DESSUS DU
CANAL SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SE RENFORCANT
AU NORD-EST.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE (EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE ET FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD), JUDE DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER
RAPIDEMENT (UN PEU PLUS QUE PREVU PRECEDEMMENT) D'ICI A SON
ATTERRISSAGE. C'EST DONC A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL QUE LE
SYSTEME TOUCHERA LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES D'ICI LUNDI. IL DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT PAR LA SUITE SUR LES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. UNE
NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE EST POSSIBLE LORS DE SA RESSORTI
EN MER, DU FAIT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES,
ATMOSPHERIQUES ET OCEANIQUES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES D'ANTSIRANANA ET TOAMASINA) :
- FORTES PLUIES (100-150MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 200M SUR LE RELIEF)
S'ESTOMPANT.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA) :
- FORTES PLUIES (100-150 MM EN 24H SUR LA COTE) SUR LE LITTORAL
JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN
- VENT DE FORCE COUP DE VENT POSSIBLES SUR LE LITTORAL JUSQU'A
DIMANCHE SOIR.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES ATTENDUES SUR LES COTES JUSQU'A DIMANCHE SOIR.

MAYOTTE/COMORES :
- FORTES PLUIES (50-100MM EN 24H) PROBABLES JUSQU'A DIMANCHE SOIR.

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA):
- DEGRADATION ACTUELLE EN AVANCE DU SYSTEME OCCASIONNANT DE FORTES
PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 300MM)
- COUP DE VENT PUIS TEMPETE TRES PROBABLES A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR.
VENT DE FORCE OURAGAN PROCHE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6M. SURCOTE DE 50CM A 1M PROCHE DE LA ZONE DA
ATTERRISSAGE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 090006
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 09/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 44.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
14.9 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
14.9 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081918
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 45.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/09 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/09 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/10 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2025/03/10 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 305 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2025/03/11 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 325 SW: 165 NW: 0

72H: 2025/03/11 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/12 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2025/03/13 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CENTER, IMPROVING THE BANDED PATTERN. AN ANALYSIS
IN PT AT 2.5 CAN BE MADE AND WITH THIS CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT TREND,
IT IS POSSIBLE TO MOVE TO 2.5+, JUSTIFYING THE NAMING. THE LATEST
MICROWAVE DATA EFFECTIVELY SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED WINDING, VALIDATING
THIS ANALYSIS. THE MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS NAMED SYSTEM
12-20242025 AT 17UTC AFTER JUDE. JUDE IS THEREFORE A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35KT.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE SYSTEM REMAINS
SUBJECT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. KEEPING A GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEREFORE PASS OFF THE SOUTH OF MAYOTTE AND THE COMOROS
ARCHIPELAGO OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NAMPULA PROVINCE
LATE ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION AND TIMING. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER THE MOZAMBICAN PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZIA BEFORE
EMERGING OVER THE CHANNEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTHEAST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY SHEAR), JUDE SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY (A LITTLE MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST) BETWEEN NOW AND ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEREFORE HIT THE MOZAMBICAN COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY MONDAY.
IT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE MOZAMBICAN COAST. A FURTHER
REGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN IT RE-EMERGES AT SEA, DUE TO
GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTSIRANANA AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAINS (100-150MM IN 24H, LOCALLY 200M ON THE HIGHER GROUNDS)
GRADUALLY FADING

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150 MM IN 24HRS) ON THE COAST UP TO MONDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE ON THE COASTLINE UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES EXPECTED UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.

MAYOTTE:
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN (50-100MM IN 24H) POSSIBLE UP TO MONDAY

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- CONDITIONS WORSENING ON SUNDAY
- HEAVY RAINS (100-200MM IN 24H, 300MM LOCALLY)
- GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY FROM LATE SUNDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M. 50CM TO 1M STORM SURGE NEAR THE LANDFALL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081918
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/12/20242025
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (JUDE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.3 S / 45.6 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2025 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 09/03/2025 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 35

36H: 10/03/2025 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

48H: 10/03/2025 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 305 SO: 165 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 0

60H: 11/03/2025 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 325 SO: 165 NO: 0

72H: 11/03/2025 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2025 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 13/03/2025 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SO: 205 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 150

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUE DE
SE RENFORCER PROCHE DU CENTRE, AMELIORANT AINSI LA CONFIGURATION EN
BANDE. UNE ANALYSE EN PT A 2.5 PEUT ETRE FAITE ET AVEC CETTE TENDANCE
A L'AMELIORATION CONTINUE, IL EST POSSIBLE DE PASSER A 2.5+,
JUSTIFIANT LE BAPTEME. LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDE MONTRENT
EFFECTIVEMENT UN ENROULEMENT MIEUX DEFINI VALIDANT CETTE ANALYSE. LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MALGACHE A BAPTISE LE SYSTEME 12-20242025 A
17UTC DU NOM DE JUDE. JUDE EST DONC UNE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 35KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. A COURTE
ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUMIS AU FLUX D'EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD DU MADAGASCAR. GARDANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE
GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC PASSER EN COURS DE
CETTE NUIT AU LARGE SUD DE MAYOTTE ET DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES,
AVANT DA ATTERRIR EN FIN DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI SUR LA PROVINCE
DE NAMPULA. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES SONT PLUTOT EN ACCORD AVEC CE
SCENARIO, MEME S'IL RESTE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA LOCALISATION EXACTE
DE L'ATTERRISSAGE ET LE TIMING. A PLUS LONG TERME, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
TRANSITER AU DESSUS DE LA PROVINCE MOZAMBICAINE DE ZAMBEZIA AVANT DE
RESSORTIR AU DESSUS DU CANAL SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE SE RENFORCANT AU NORD-EST.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE (EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE, FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE ET FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD), JUDE DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER
RAPIDEMENT (UN PEU PLUS QUE PREVU PRECEDEMMENT) D'ICI A SON
ATTERRISSAGE. C'EST DONC A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL QUE LE
SYSTEME TOUCHERA LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES D'ICI LUNDI. IL DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT PAR LA SUITE SUR LES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. UNE
NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE EST POSSIBLE LORS DE SA RESSORTI
EN MER, DU FAIT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES,
ATMOSPHERIQUES ET OCEANIQUES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H :

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES D'ANTSIRANANA ET TOAMASINA) :
- FORTES PLUIES (100-150MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 200M SUR LE RELIEF)
S'ESTOMPANT.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCE DE MAHAJANGA) :
- FORTES PLUIES (100-150 MM EN 24H SUR LA COTE) SUR LE LITTORAL
JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN
- VENT DE FORCE COUP DE VENT POSSIBLES SUR LE LITTORAL JUSQU'A
DIMANCHE SOIR.
- VAGUES DE 4 METRES ATTENDUES SUR LES COTES JUSQU'A DIMANCHE SOIR.

MAYOTTE :
- FORTES PLUIES (50-100MM EN 24H) PROBABLES ENTRE SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE
SOIR.

COMORES :
- POSSIBLES FORTES PLUIES (50-100MM EN 24H) JUSQU'A LUNDI

MOZAMBIQUE (PROVINCE DE NAMPULA):
- DEGRADATION EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE
- FORTES PLUIES (100-200MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT 300MM)
- COUP DE VENT PUIS TEMPETE TRES PROBABLES A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR.
VENT DE FORCE OURAGAN PROCHE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT.
- VAGUES DE 4 A 6M. SURCOTE DE 50CM A 1M PROCHE DE LA ZONE DA
ATTERRISSAGE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 081811
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 08/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JUDE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 45.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
14.6 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
14.8 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=