Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for COURTNEY-25
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250401073336
2025040106 27S COURTNEY 020 01 250 03 SATL 030
T000 250S 0884E 045 R034 000 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 252S 0879E 040 R034 000 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 25.0S 88.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 88.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.2S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 88.3E.
01APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
907 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 010232Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
REVEALED THE ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 40-45 KTS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 27S IS
PLACED WITHIN A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
VERY HIGH (OVER 50 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 27S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DROPPING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING BOTH THE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND.
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE VORTEX FURTHER SHALLOWS AND BECOMES COMPLETELY TAKEN
OVER BY DRY AIR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
010600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20
FEET.//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1072E 45
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033012 218S 880E 80
2725033012 218S 880E 80
2725033012 218S 880E 80
2725033018 223S 879E 75
2725033018 223S 879E 75
2725033018 223S 879E 75
2725033100 231S 881E 70
2725033100 231S 881E 70
2725033100 231S 881E 70
2725033106 240S 885E 65
2725033106 240S 885E 65
2725033106 240S 885E 65
2725033112 246S 888E 60
2725033112 246S 888E 60
2725033118 248S 888E 55
2725033118 248S 888E 55
2725040100 249S 887E 50
2725040100 249S 887E 50
2725040106 250S 884E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 25.0S 88.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 88.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.2S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 88.3E.
01APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
907 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 010232Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
REVEALED THE ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 40-45 KTS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 27S IS
PLACED WITHIN A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
VERY HIGH (OVER 50 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 27S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DROPPING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING BOTH THE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND.
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE VORTEX FURTHER SHALLOWS AND BECOMES COMPLETELY TAKEN
OVER BY DRY AIR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
010600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20
FEET.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 24.8S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.5S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.8S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 88.7E.
31MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
885 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311800Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z AND 012100Z.
//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 311802
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (COURTNEY) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 88.9 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
NO SQUALLY WEATHER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
25.8 S / 88.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/04/01 AT 18 UTC:
26.1 S / 88.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE SECURITE SHIPPING BULLETIN
FOR METAREA VIII(S) ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES OF
MAURITIUS (FQIO25 FIMP).=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/14/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 88.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 80 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/04/01 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2025/04/01 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 0

36H: 2025/04/02 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 0

48H: 2025/04/02 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/03 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 0

72H: 2025/04/03 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS: COURTNEY'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS
WELL SHEARED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, DETACHED QUITE FAR FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
(LLC). THE DEEP SHEAR ESTIMATED BY CIMSS IS NORTH-WESTERLY FOR 36KT,
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE SITUATION THAT CURRENTLY
PLACES THE SYSTEM ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATING
FURTHER WEST. THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTION STILL ALLOWS A SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS, GIVING A CI OF 3.5 PER INERTIA.

COURTNEY'S TRACK CURVES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING
FLOW DROPS BACK INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE AND THEN INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS. BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL AT 700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
ACCELERATE WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY EVENING, AS THE REMNANT LOW IS
TAKEN UP IN THE TRADE WINDS ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
LAYER. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION IS INCREASING FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS, INDUCING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK BEYOND.

COURTNEY'S INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A RESULT
OF INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR ALONG THE UPPER
TROUGH, INJECTING DRY AIR OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION,
COURTNEY'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT MEANS THAT IT IS CIRCULATING OVER MUCH
COOLER SURFACE WATERS, WITH VIRTUALLY NO OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, COURTNEY
SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, EVOLVING INTO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE FORM OF A
VORTEX DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. DRY AIR WILL SETTLE PERMANENTLY
OVER THE LLC, WITH NO POSSIBILITY OF REINTENSIFYING. GALE-FORCE
WINDS, THEN NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, MAY PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311226
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/14/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 31/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.6 S / 88.8 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 80 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/04/2025 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 01/04/2025 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 0

36H: 02/04/2025 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 0

48H: 02/04/2025 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 03/04/2025 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 130 NO: 0

72H: 03/04/2025 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

ASSEZ PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE COURTNEY RESTE BIEN CISAILLEE AVEC UNE
CONVECTION PROFONDE RELEGUEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DU SYSTEME,
DETACHEE ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES. LE CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND ESTIME PAR LE CIMSS EST DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST POUR 36KT, CE
QUI EST COHERENT AVEC LA SITUATION DE GRANDE ECHELLE QUI PLACE
ACTUELLEMENT LE SYSTEME SUR LE FLANC ORIENTAL D'UN THALWEG CIRCULANT
PLUS A L'OUEST. LA PRESENCE DE CONVECTION PERMET ENCORE DE PROCEDER
A UNE ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE, DONNANT UN CI DE 3.5 PAR INERTIE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE COURTNEY S'INCURVE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD-EST ET D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME, LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS DANS LES BASSES
COUCHES. ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI, COURTNEY DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER
LENTEMENT AU SEIN D'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE A 700HPA, PUIS
LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR,
LE MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL ETANT REPRIS DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZES SUR LA FACE NORD DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL DE BASSES
COUCHES. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA DISPERSION EST EN HAUSSE A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, INDUISANT UNE FAIBLE CONFIANCE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
SYSTEME AU-DELA.

L'INTENSITE DE COURTNEY VA CONTINUER A BAISSER GRADUELLEMENT SOUS
L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DE PLUS EN PLUS FORT EN
BORDURE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, INJECTANT DE L'AIR SEC AU-DESSUS DU
CENTRE DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, LE DEPLACEMENT DE COURTNEY VERS LE SUD,
LE FAIT CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX DE SURFACE NETTEMENT PLUS FRAICHES ET
DONC AVEC UN POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE QUASI NUL.A PARTIR DE CE SOIR,
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, COURTNEY DEVRAIT
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES, LE FAISANT EVOLUER VERS UN
SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL PUIS EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE SOUS FORME D'UN
VORTEX DEPOURVU DE CONVECTION PROFONDE. L'AIR SEC VA S'INSTALLER
DURABLEMENT AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE, SANS POSSIBILITE DE
REINTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PUIS
GRAND FRAIS POURRONT CEPENDANT PERDURER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR
EFFET DE GRADIENT DE PRESSION JUSQU'A MERCREDI, AVANT DISSIPATION DU
SYSTEME LES JOURS SUIVANTS.

COURTNEY NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 311214
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (COURTNEY) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 88.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/04/01 AT 00 UTC:
25.4 S / 88.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/04/01 AT 12 UTC:
26.0 S / 88.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250331074157
2025033106 27S COURTNEY 018 01 160 10 SATL 060
T000 240S 0885E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 250S 0888E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 258S 0887E 045 R034 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 261S 0882E 040 R034 000 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 261S 0871E 035 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 24.0S 88.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 88.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.0S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.8S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.1S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.1S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 88.6E.
31MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
854 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1072E 45
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033012 218S 880E 80
2725033012 218S 880E 80
2725033012 218S 880E 80
2725033018 223S 879E 75
2725033018 223S 879E 75
2725033018 223S 879E 75
2725033100 231S 881E 70
2725033100 231S 881E 70
2725033100 231S 881E 70
2725033106 240S 885E 65
2725033106 240S 885E 65
2725033106 240S 885E 65
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 24.0S 88.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 88.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.0S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.8S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.1S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.1S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 88.6E.
31MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
854 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/14/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 88.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 80 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/31 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0

24H: 2025/04/01 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0

36H: 2025/04/01 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 0

48H: 2025/04/02 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/02 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

72H: 2025/04/03 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0+

LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS: COURTNEY'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAIN
SHEARED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DETACHED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEEP VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ESTIMATED BY CIMSS IS NORTH-WESTERLY FOR 30KT, WHICH IS FULLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE SITUATION THAT CURRENTLY PLACES THE
SYSTEM ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER
WEST. THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTION STILL ALLOWS A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS, GIVING A DT OF 3.0. DUE TO INERTIA, AND ALSO TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT DATA FROM THE RCM1-VH SAR AT 2326Z AND THE 0342Z ASCAT-C
SWATH, THE CI REMAINS AT 4.0+, CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AT THE UPPER
STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FOR 60KT.

COURTNEY'S TRACK CURVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING
FLOW DROPS BACK INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE AND THEN INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS. BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL AT 700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD
ACCELERATE WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY EVENING, AS THE REMNANT LOW IS
TAKEN UP IN THE TRADE WINDS ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
LAYER. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION IS INCREASING FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS, INDUCING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK BEYOND.

COURTNEY'S INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A RESULT
OF INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR ALONG THE UPPER
TROUGH, INJECTING DRY AIR OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION,
COURTNEY'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT MEANS THAT IT IS CIRCULATING OVER MUCH
COOLER SURFACE WATERS, WITH VIRTUALLY NO OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, COURTNEY
SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, EVOLVING INTO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE FORM OF A
VORTEX DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. DRY AIR WILL SETTLE PERMANENTLY
OVER THE LLC, WITH NO POSSIBILITY OF REINTENSIFYING. GALE-FORCE
WINDS, THEN NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, MAY PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310627
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/14/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.9 S / 88.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 54 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 80 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/03/2025 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 0

24H: 01/04/2025 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 0

36H: 01/04/2025 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 280 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 0

48H: 02/04/2025 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 02/04/2025 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 0

72H: 03/04/2025 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0+

ASSEZ PEU DE CHANGEMENT AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE COURTNEY RESTE BIEN CISAILLEE AVEC UNE
CONVECTION PROFONDE RELEGUEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DU SYSTEME,
DETACHEE ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES. LE CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND ESTIME PAR LE CIMSS EST DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST POUR 30KT, CE
QUI EST COMPLETEMENT COHERENT AVEC LA SITUATION DE GRANDE ECHELLE QUI
PLACE ACTUELLEMENT LE SYSTEME SUR LE FLANC ORIENTAL D'UN THALWEG
CIRCULANT PLUS A L'OUEST. LA PRESENCE DE CONVECTION PERMET ENCORE DE
PROCEDER A UNE ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE, DONNANT UN DT DE 3.0. PAR
INERTIE ET PRENANT EGALEMENT EN COMPTE LES DONNEES DE LA SAR RCM1-VH
DE 2326Z OU ENCORE LA PASSE ASCAT-C DE 0342Z, LE CI RESTE DONC A
4.0+, CLASSANT AINSI LE SYSTEME AU STADE SUPERIEUR DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE POUR 60KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE COURTNEY S'INCURVE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE DORSALE AU NORD-EST ET D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST
PUIS SUD. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR REDESCEND EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS DANS LES BASSES
COUCHES. ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI, COURTNEY DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER
LENTEMENT AU SEIN D'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE A 700HPA, PUIS
LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR,
LE MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL ETANT REPRIS DANS LE FLUX
D'ALIZES SUR LA FACE NORD DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL DE BASSES
COUCHES. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA DISPERSION EST EN HAUSSE A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, INDUISANT UNE FAIBLE CONFIANCE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
SYSTEME AU-DELA.

L'INTENSITE DE COURTNEY VA CONTINUER A BAISSER GRADUELLEMENT SOUS
L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DE PLUS EN PLUS FORT EN
BORDURE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, INJECTANT DE L'AIR SEC AU-DESSUS DU
CENTRE DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, LE DEPLACEMENT DE COURTNEY VERS LE SUD,
LE FAIT CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX DE SURFACE NETTEMENT PLUS FRAICHES ET
DONC AVEC UN POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE QUASI NUL. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR,
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, COURTNEY DEVRAIT
PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES, LE FAISANT EVOLUER VERS UN
SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL PUIS EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE SOUS FORME D'UN
VORTEX DEPOURVU DE CONVECTION PROFONDE. L'AIR SEC VA S'INSTALLER
DURABLEMENT AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE, SANS POSSIBILITE DE
REINTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PUIS
GRAND FRAIS POURRONT CEPENDANT PERDURER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR
EFFET DE GRADIENT DE PRESSION JUSQU'A MERCREDI, AVANT DISSIPATION DU
SYSTEME LES JOURS SUIVANTS.

COURTNEY NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 310613
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (COURTNEY) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 88.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/31 AT 18 UTC:
25.0 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/04/01 AT 06 UTC:
25.8 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/14/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 88.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/31 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75

24H: 2025/04/01 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2025/04/01 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85

48H: 2025/04/02 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/02 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 250 NW: 0

72H: 2025/04/03 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, COURTNEY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHEARED BY A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS
PROBABLY IN EXCESS OF 30 KT. THE SYSTEM'S CENTER IS NOW OUTSIDE THE
CONVECTIVE MASS, WHICH IS DISPLACED ABOUT 15-20 NM TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTH-EAST OF THE LLCC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEARED PATTERN
THUS YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE 1908Z AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THAT THE
INNER CORE HAS BROADENED. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE RECENT SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. THE
SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 60 KT AT 00UTC, DOWNGRADING
COURTNEY TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

COURTNEY'S TRACK IS CURVING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST/NORTH-EAST AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWN TO THE
MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL AT
700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THERE IS A
RATHER HIGH DISPERSION AMONG AVAILABLE MODELS.

COURTNEY'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASINGLY HIGH NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG
THE EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH, INJECTING DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S
CENTER. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL BRING IT
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C. FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARDS,
IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, COURTNEY SHOULD LOSE SOME
OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH A CONVECTION-FREE VORTEX. DRY
AIR WILL MASSIVELY SETTLE OVER THE SYSTEM, PREVENTING ANY FURTHER
REINTENSIFICATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT
EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE
FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310040
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/14/20242025
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 31/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.2 S / 88.0 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/03/2025 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75

24H: 01/04/2025 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

36H: 01/04/2025 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 85

48H: 02/04/2025 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0

60H: 02/04/2025 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SO: 250 NO: 0

72H: 03/04/2025 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
COURTNEY EST DEVENUE DE PLUS EN PLUS CISAILLEE SOUS L'EFFET D'UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST QUI DEPASSE PROBABLEMENT LES 30 KT. LE
CENTRE DU SYSTEME EST DESORMAIS EN DEHORS DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE, QUI
EST DEPORTEE A ENVIRON 15-20 MN AU SUD ET SUD-EST DU VORTEX DE BASSES
COUCHES. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE EN CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE DONNE
AINSI UN DT DE 3.0. L'IMAGE AMSR2 DE 1908Z MONTRE QUE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE EST PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET QUE LE COEUR
INTERNE S'EST ELARGI. ELLE MONTRE AUSSI QUE LE DEPLACEMENT VERS LE
SUD A ETE UN PEU PLUS LENT QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU. L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME EST ESTIMEE A 60 KT A 00UTC, RETROGRADANT COURTNEY AU STADE
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE COURTNEY S'INCURVE VERS LE SUD PUIS SUD-SUD-EST
SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST/NORD-EST ET D'UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS DANS LES
BASSES COUCHES. ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI, COURTNEY DEVRAIT SE
DEPLACER LENTEMENT AU SEIN D'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE A
700HPA, PUIS LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR
DE MARDI SOIR, LE MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL ETANT REPRIS DANS
LE FLUX D'ALIZES SUR LA FACE NORD DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL DE
SURFACE. IL EST A NOTER QU'A PARTIR DE LUNDI, IL EXISTE UNE ASSEZ
FORTE DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELISATIONS DISPONIBLES.

L'INTENSITE DE COURTNEY VA CONTINUER A BAISSER GRADUELLEMENT SOUS
L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DE PLUS EN PLUS FORT EN
BORDURE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, INJECTANT DE L'AIR SEC SUR LE CENTRE
DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD LE FAIT
CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE INFERIEURE A 26C. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS
BAROCLINE, COURTNEY DEVRAIT PERDRE CERTAINES DE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES, LE FAISANT EVOLUER VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL PUIS EN
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE SOUS FORME D'UN VORTEX DEPOURVU DE CONVECTION
PROFONDE. L'AIR SEC VA S'INSTALLER DURABLEMENT AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE,
SANS POSSIBILITE DE REINTENSIFICATION. DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE
VENT PUIS GRAND FRAIS POURRONT CEPENDANT PERDURER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DE PRESSION JUSQU'A MERCREDI, AVANT
DISSIPATION DU SYSTEME LES JOURS SUIVANTS.

COURTNEY NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 310032 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (COURTNEY) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 88.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS AND UP TO
220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/31 AT 12 UTC:
24.7 S / 88.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2025/04/01 AT 00 UTC:
25.6 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 310017
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (COURTNEY) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 88.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS AND UP TO
220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/31 AT 12 UTC:
24.7 S / 88.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/04/01 AT 00 UTC:
25.6 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250330191906
2025033018 27S COURTNEY 017 01 185 08 SATL 060
T000 227S 0879E 070 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 240S 0883E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 250S 0887E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 258S 0888E 040 R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 265S 0883E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 22.7S 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.0S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.0S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.8S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.5S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 88.0E.
30MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
813 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310900Z AND 312100Z.
//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1072E 45
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033012 219S 880E 80
2725033012 219S 880E 80
2725033012 219S 880E 80
2725033018 227S 879E 70
2725033018 227S 879E 70
2725033018 227S 879E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 22.7S 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.0S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.0S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.8S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.5S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 88.0E.
30MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
813 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310900Z AND 312100Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301843
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/14/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 87.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/31 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2025/03/31 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55

36H: 2025/04/01 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85

48H: 2025/04/01 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/02 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2025/04/02 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO OFFSET DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN A SHEARED PATTERN YIELDS A DT
OF 3.5, AS THE CENTER IS STILL UNDER THE EDGE OF THE CDO. A 1246Z SAR
RCM-1 PASS SUGGESTS WINDS NEAR 70-75 KT, WHILE A 1230Z SMAP PASS
INDICATES WINDS OF ONLY 65 KT. A PARTIAL ASCAT-C PASS AT 1630Z ALSO
SUGGESTS WINDS STILL REACHING AT LEAST 60 KT IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT. THE LATEST CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES MOSTLY RANGE
FROM 60 TO 70 KT. COURTNEY'S INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 65
KT AT 18UTC, MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VARIOUS INPUTS.

COURTNEY'S TRACK IS CURVING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST/NORTH-EAST AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE DOWN INTO
THE MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL AT
700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THERE IS A
RATHER HIGH DISPERSION AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

COURTNEY'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASINGLY HIGH NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG
THE EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH, INJECTING DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S
CENTER. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL BRING IT
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C. FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARDS,
IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS
TROPICAL FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO
EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH A
CONVECTION-FREE VORTEX. DRY AIR WILL MASSIVELY SETTLE OVER THE
SYSTEM, PREVENTING ANY FURTHER REINTENSIFICATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS
AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301843
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/14/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.8 S / 87.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/03/2025 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 31/03/2025 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55

36H: 01/04/2025 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 85

48H: 01/04/2025 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 0

60H: 02/04/2025 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 0

72H: 02/04/2025 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DE
PLUS EN PLUS FORT A CONTINUE A DEPORTER LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
MAJORITAIREMENT AU SUD ET A L'EST DU SYSTEME. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN
CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE DONNE UN DT DE 3.5, AVEC UN CENTRE ENCORE
SOUS LA BORDURE DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE. UNE PASSE SAR
RCM-1 A 1246Z SUGGERE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 70-75 KT TANDIS QU'UNE
PASSE SMAP A 1230Z INDIQUE DES VENTS DE SEULEMENT 65 KT. UNE PASSE
ASCAT-C PARTIELLE A 1630Z SUGGERE DES VENTS ATTEIGNANT ENCORE AU
MOINS 60 KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS
D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS VARIENT ENTRE 60 ET 70 KT.
L'INTENSITE DE COURTNEY EST DONC ESTIMEE A 65 KT A 18UTC, FAISANT UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE CES DIFFERENTES DONNEES.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE COURTNEY S'INCURVE VERS LE SUD PUIS SUD-SUD-EST
SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST/NORD-EST ET D'UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS
DANS LES BASSES COUCHES. ENTRE LUNDI SOIR ET MARDI, COURTNEY DEVRAIT
SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT AU SEIN D'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE A
700HPA, PUIS LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT REPRENDRE VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE
MARDI SOIR, LE MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL ETANT REPRIS DANS LE
FLUX D'ALIZES SUR LA FACE NORD DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL DE
SURFACE. IL EST A NOTER QU'A PARTIR DE LUNDI, IL EXISTE UNE ASSEZ
FORTE DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELISATIONS DISPONIBLES.

L'INTENSITE DE COURTNEY VA CONTINUER A BAISSER GRADUELLEMENT SOUS
L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DE PLUS EN PLUS FORT EN
BORDURE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, INJECTANT DE L'AIR SEC SUR LE CENTRE
DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD LE FAIT
CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A LA TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE INFERIEURE A 26C. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, DANS UN CONTEXTE FORTEMENT CISAILLE, COURTNEY
POURRAIT PERDRE CERTAINES DE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET LA
CONVECTION DEVRAIT NETTEMENT S'ATTENUER, LE FAISANT EVOLUER VERS UN
SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL PUIS EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE SOUS FORME D'UN
VORTEX DEPOURVU DE CONVECTION PROFONDE. L'AIR SEC VA S'INSTALLER
DURABLEMENT AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE, SANS POSSIBILITE DE
REINTENSIFICATION. DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PUIS GRAND FRAIS
POURRONT CEPENDANT PERDURER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE
GRADIENT DE PRESSION JUSQU'A MERCREDI, AVANT DISSIPATION DU SYSTEME
LES JOURS SUIVANTS.

COURTNEY NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 301820
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 30/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 87.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/31 AT 06 UTC:
24.2 S / 88.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/31 AT 18 UTC:
25.2 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 301205
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 30/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 88.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/31 AT 00 UTC:
23.4 S / 88.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/31 AT 12 UTC:
24.5 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250330073809
2025033006 27S COURTNEY 016 02 205 11 SATL 060
T000 211S 0883E 100 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 227S 0881E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 239S 0884E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 248S 0886E 045 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 255S 0885E 035 R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 260S 0868E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 88.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 88.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.7S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.9S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.8S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.5S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.0S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 88.2E.
30MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
727 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z.//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1072E 45
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033006 211S 883E 100
2725033006 211S 883E 100
2725033006 211S 883E 100
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 88.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 88.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.7S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.9S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.8S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.5S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.0S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 88.2E.
30MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
727 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 300606
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 30/03/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 88.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/30 AT 18 UTC:
22.7 S / 88.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/31 AT 06 UTC:
23.9 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300019
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/14/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 88.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 2.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/30 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/31 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2025/03/31 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

48H: 2025/04/01 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95

60H: 2025/04/01 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85

72H: 2025/04/02 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=6.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, COURTNEY HAS BEGUN TO SUFFER FROM
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ITS EYE CONFIGURATION HAS FLUCTUATED
CONSIDERABLY, AND A DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS GIVES A
T OF 5.0. MOREOVER, THE F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2126Z CLEARLY SHOWS
CONVECTION REJECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER, WHILE MAINTAINING A
FIRM EYE VISIBLE AT 89 GHZ. IN LINE WITH CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES,
COURTNEY IS MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF
100KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. LINKED TO A RIDGE OF HIGH AND
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, COURTNEY CONTINUES TO TURN SOUTH-WEST. THE
MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY, ALSO ATTRACTED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW
SHOULD MOVE DOWN INTO THE MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS.
ON MONDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL
SITUATION AT 700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THERE IS A
VERY WIDE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.


IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
STILL-GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, INJECTING DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE CENTER. COURTNEY SHOULD
THEREFORE WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT OVER LOWER ENERGY CONTENT SURFACE
WATERS, ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING. COURTNEY IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE MONDAY
MORNING. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LACKING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
THE DRY AIR WILL ENTER HARD ABOVE THE CENTER WITH NO POSSIBILITY OF
REINTENSIFICATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT
EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES MORE CLEARLY
OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300019
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/14/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 88.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/6.0/W 2.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/03/2025 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 31/03/2025 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 31/03/2025 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 215 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 35

48H: 01/04/2025 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 95

60H: 01/04/2025 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 85

72H: 02/04/2025 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 280 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 110 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, COURTNEY A COMMENCE A SOUFFRIR D'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST. SA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A BEAUCOUP
FLUCTUEE ET UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL MOYENNEE SUR 3H DONNE UN T DE
5.0. DE PLUS, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES F18 DE 2126Z MONTRE NETTEMENT LA
CONVECTION REJECTEE AU SUD DU CENTRE MAIS EN MAINTENANT UN OEIL BIEN
FERME VISIBLE EN 89 GHZ. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU
CIMSS, COURTNEY EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
AVEC DES VENTS DE 100KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. EN LIEN AVEC UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, COURTNEY POURSUIT SON VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'INCURVER VERS LE
SUD DIMANCHE, EGALEMENT ATTIRE PAR UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE CIRCULANT AU
SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DU SYSTEME. LORS DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
PREVU A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS DANS LES BASSES COUCHES. LUNDI, COURTNEY
DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT AU SEIN D'UNE SITUATION DE COL
BAROMETRIQUE A 700HPA, PUIS LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT REPRENDRE VERS
L'OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI, LE MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL ETANT
REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES SUR LA FACE NORD DE L'ANTICYCLONE
SUBTROPICAL DE SURFACE. IL EST A NOTER QU'A PARTIR DE LUNDI, IL
EXISTE UNE TRES FORTE DISPERSION ENTRE LES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, MALGRA UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ENCORE BON, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD PUIS
NORD-OUEST VA PROGRESSIVEMENT AUGMENTER PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN
THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC PROCHE DU CENTRE.
COURTNEY DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT EN JOURNEE. DE
PLUS, LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD LE FERA CIRCULER SUR DES
EAUX A PLUS FAIBLE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE, CONTRIBUANT AUSSI A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. COURTNEY DEVRAIT AINSI S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT LUNDI MATIN. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, DANS UN
CONTEXTE FORTEMENT CISAILLE, COURTNEY POURRAIT PERDRE CERTAINES DE
SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET LA CONVECTION DEVRAIT S'ATTENUER,
LE FAISANT EVOLUER VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL PUIS EN DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE SANS CONVECTION PROFONDE PRES DU CENTRE. L'AIR SEC VA
ENTRER DUREBLEMENT AU DESSUS DU CENTRE SANS POSSIBILITA DE
REINTENSIFICATION. DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PUIS GRAND FRAIS
POURRONT CEPENDANT PERDURER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE
GRADIENT DE PRESSION JUSQU'A MERCREDI, AVANT DISSIPATION PLUS FRANCHE
DU SYSTEME LES JOURS SUIVANTS.

COURTNEY NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 300013
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/03/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 30/03/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 88.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/30 AT 12 UTC:
21.8 S / 88.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/31 AT 00 UTC:
23.4 S / 88.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250329190754
2025032918 27S COURTNEY 015 02 220 12 SATL 020
T000 195S 0893E 125 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 211S 0884E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 227S 0882E 100 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 238S 0886E 085 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 245S 0889E 070 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 255S 0883E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 254S 0863E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.1S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.7S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.8S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.5S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.5S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.4S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 89.1E.
29MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
620 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 939 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300900Z AND 302100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1072E 45
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725032918 195S 893E 125
2725032918 195S 893E 125
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.1S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.7S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.8S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.5S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.5S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.4S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 89.1E.
29MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
620 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 939 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300900Z AND 302100Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291823
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/14/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 89.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/7.0/S 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/30 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/30 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/31 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

48H: 2025/03/31 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/01 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110

72H: 2025/04/01 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 285 SW: 325 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/04/02 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

A SAR PASS HAS PASSED OVER COURTNEY AT 1239UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
MEASURED AT 100KT. HOWEVER, STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-WEST
QUADRANT SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THIS QUADRANT.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 12UTC CARRIED OUT BY THE RSMC GAVE WINDS AT
120KT. THE BESTRACK HAS THEREFORE BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS,
WITH WINDS AT 12UTC OF 110KT.

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE COURTNEY'S EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED, BUT HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY. THE EYE CONTOUR IS A
LITTLE LESS REGULAR AND THE TEMPERATURE IN THE EYE HAS COOLED. DVORAK
ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS GIVES A T OF 6.0. IN THE ABSENCE OF
OTHER DATA AND IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF THE CIMSS,
COURTNEY IS MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF
110KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. LINKED TO A RIDGE OF HIGH AND
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, COURTNEY CONTINUES TO TURN SOUTH-WEST. THE
MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY, ALSO ATTRACTED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW
SHOULD MOVE DOWN INTO THE MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS.
ON MONDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL
SITUATION AT 700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, COURTNEY WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE, GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, WIND SHEAR STILL HAVING LITTLE
IMPACT) AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER RANGE OF THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. THEN, THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY, THROUGH INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. IN ADDITION, THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT OVER LOWER ENERGY CONTENT
SURFACE WATERS, ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING. COURTNEY IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE MONDAY
MORNING. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LACKING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES MORE CLEARLY OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291823
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/14/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 89.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/7.0/S 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/03/2025 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 30/03/2025 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/03/2025 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35

48H: 31/03/2025 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 0

60H: 01/04/2025 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 110

72H: 01/04/2025 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 285 SO: 325 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2025 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

UNE PASSE SAR EST PASSEE SUR COURTNEY A 1239UTC AVEC DES VENTS
MAXIMUM MESURES A 100KT. CEPENDANT LA FORTE CONVECTION DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-OUEST PEUT LAISSER PENSER QUE LES VENTS POURRAIENT ETRE
UN PEU SUPERIEURS DANS CE QUADRANT. L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE 12UTC
EFFECTUEE PAR LE CMRS DONNAIT DES VENTS A 120KT. LA BESTRACK A DONC
ETE REVUE LEGEREMENT A LA BAISSE AVEC DES VENTS A 12UTC DE 110KT.

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE COURTNEY
S'EST MAINTENUE MAIS S'EST LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE. LE CONTOUR DE L'OEIL
EST UN PEU MOINS REGULIER ET LA TEMPERAUTURE DANS L'OEIL S'EST
REFROIDIE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 3H DONNE UN T DE 6.0. EN
ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES ET EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU
CIMSS, COURTNEY EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
AVEC DES VENTS DE 110KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. EN LIEN AVEC UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, COURTNEY POURSUIT SON VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'INCURVER VERS LE
SUD DIMANCHE, EGALEMENT ATTIRE PAR UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE CIRCULANT AU
SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DU SYSTEME. LORS DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
PREVU A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS DANS LES BASSES COUCHES. LUNDI, COURTNEY
DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT AU SEIN D'UNE SITUATION DE COL
BAROMETRIQUE A 700HPA, PUIS LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT REPRENDRE VERS
L'OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI, LE MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL ETANT
REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES SUR LA FACE NORD DE L'ANTICYCLONE
SUBTROPICAL DE SURFACE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, COURTNEY CONSERVE DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES (BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ENCORE PEU
IMPACTANT) ET DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR DANS LA TRANCHE HAUTE DU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. PUIS LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD PUIS
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE DEMAIN PAR
INTERACTION AVEC CE THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI DEVRAIT AMORCER UNE
TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. DE PLUS, LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS
LE SUD LE FERA CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A PLUS FAIBLE CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE, CONTRIBUANT AUSSI A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. COURTNEY DEVRAIT
AINSI S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT LUNDI
MATIN. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, DANS UN CONTEXTE FORTEMENT CISAILLE,
COURTNEY POURRAIT PERDRE CERTAINES DE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES
ET LA CONVECTION DEVRAIT S'ATTENUER, LE FAISANT EVOLUER VERS UN
SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL PUIS EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE SANS CONVECTION
PROFONDE PRES DU CENTRE. DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PUIS GRAND
FRAIS POURRONT PERDURER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT
DE PRESSION JUSQU'A MERCREDI, AVANT DISSIPATION PLUS FRANCHE DU
SYSTEME LES JOURS SUIVANTS.

COURTNEY NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291817
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 29/03/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 89.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/30 AT 06 UTC:
20.9 S / 88.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/30 AT 18 UTC:
22.4 S / 88.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291341
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20242025
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 90.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 929 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/30 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/30 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/31 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/31 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/01 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100

72H: 2025/04/01 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/04/02 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 0

120H: 2025/04/03 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0-

TROPICAL SYSTEM COURTNEY FORMED IN THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY SINCE MARCH 22ND AND WAS NAMED BY THE AUSTRALIAN
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY ON TUESDAY MARCH 25TH. THE SYSTEM HAS SINCE
BENEFITED FROM FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT
WHILE MOVING WESTWARDS, REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY
MARCH 27TH, THEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY MARCH 28TH AT
12UTC.
THIS SATURDAY, AS IT KEPT MOVING WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST, IT
APPROACHED THE 90TH MERIDIAN, WHICH IT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING, THUS
ENTERING THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN. LA REUNION RSMC IS NOW
TAKING OVER FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BOM FOR OPERATIONAL MONITORING OF
COURTNEY.

COURTNEY'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS NEAR 6.0 THIS MORNING, CLIMBING BETWEEN
6.5 AND 7.0 THIS AFTERNOON. THE FINAL T-NUMBER IS THUS ESTIMATED AT
7.0- A 12UTC, BEARING IN MIND THAT THE METEOSAT PARALLAX EFFECT COULD
LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATION. SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES (GPM
AT 0442Z, GCOMW AT 0730Z, F18 AT 1008Z) HAVE SHOWN A VERY SOLID AND
RATHER COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE. THESE ELEMENTS LEAD US TO ESTIMATE
COURTNEY'S INTENSITY AT 120 KT, PLACING IT AT VITC STAGE, SLIGHTLY
ABOVE OBJECTIVE ADT/AIDT ESTIMATES OF 130 KT (1MIN WINDS). AT 12UTC,
THE CYCLONE'S CENTER WAS STILL AT 90.2E. IT SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH
MERIDIAN BETWEEN 13 AND 14UTC.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DUE TO A RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST, COURTNEY HAS BEGUN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TURN THIS SATURDAY EVENING. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN
CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY, ALSO ATTRACTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE
DOWN INTO THE MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. ON MONDAY,
COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION AT
700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, COURTNEY SHOULD REMAIN VERY INTENSE THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT THANKS TO EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
AHEAD OF A DISTANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, COMBINED WITH GOOD OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. NEVERTHELESS, THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY, THROUGH INTERACTION WITH THIS
TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. IN ADDITION, THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT OVER LOWER ENERGY CONTENT
SURFACE WATERS, ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING. COURTNEY IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE MONDAY
MORNING. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LACKING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES MORE CLEARLY OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291341
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/14/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 90.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 7.0/7.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 929 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 120 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/03/2025 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 30/03/2025 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/03/2025 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 31/03/2025 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 01/04/2025 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 100

72H: 01/04/2025 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2025 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 140 NO: 0

120H: 03/04/2025 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=7.0-

LE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL COURTNEY EST NE DANS LA ZONE DE
RESPONSABILITE AUSTRALIENNE DEPUIS LE 22 MARS ET A ETE BAPTISE PAR LE
BOM AUSTRALIEN MARDI 25 MARS. LE SYSTEME A DEPUIS BENEFICIE DE
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A SON DEVELOPPEMENT TOUT EN
SUIVANT UN DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST, ATTEIGNANT LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL DEPUIS JEUDI 27 MARS AU MATIN, PUIS CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
VENDREDI 28 MARS A 12UTC.
CE SAMEDI, SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST
L'AMENE A S'APPROCHER DU MERIDIEN 90E, QU'IL FRANCHIRA CE SOIR,
PENETRANT AINSI DANS LE BASSIN SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN. LE CMRS
DE LA REUNION PREND DONC A PRESENT LE RELAIS DU BOM AUSTRALIEN POUR
LE SUIVI OPERATIONNEL DE COURTNEY.

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE COURTNEY S'EST AMELIOREE AU COURS DE LA
JOURNEE AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE PROCHE DE 6.0 CE MATIN,
GRIMPANT ENTRE 6.5 ET 7.0 CET APRES-MIDI. LE NOMBRE T-FINAL EST AINSI
ESTIME A 7.0- A 12UTC, SACHANT QUE L'EFFET DE PARALLAXE DU SATELLITE
METEOSAT POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE LEGERE SOUS-ESTIMATION. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES SUCCESSIVES (GPM A 0442Z, GCOMW A 0730Z, F18 A 1008Z)
MONTRENT UN COEUR CONVECTIF TRES SOLIDE ET RELATIVEMENT COMPACT. CES
ELEMENTS INCITENT A ESTIMER L'INTENSITE DE COURTNEY A 120 KT, LE
CLASSANT AU STADE DE CTTI, UN PEU AU-DESSUS DES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES ADT/AIDT QUI SONT A 130 KT (VENTS 1MIN). A 12UTC, LE
CENTRE DU CYCLONE SE SITUAIT ENCORE VERS 90.2E. SON PASSAGE DU
MERIDIEN 90E DEVRAIT SE FAIRE ENTRE 13 ET 14UTC.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, EN LIEN AVEC UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET
HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-EST PUIS A L'EST, COURTNEY A COMMENCE UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST CE SAMEDI SOIR. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE
S'INCURVER VERS LE SUD DIMANCHE, EGALEMENT ATTIRE PAR UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE CIRCULANT AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DU SYSTEME. LORS DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME PREVU A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS DANS LES
BASSES COUCHES. LUNDI, COURTNEY DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT AU
SEIN D'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE A 700HPA, PUIS LE MOUVEMENT
DEVRAIT REPRENDRE VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI, LE MINIMUM
DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL ETANT REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES SUR LA
FACE NORD DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL DE SURFACE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, COURTNEY CONSERVE UNE TRES FORTE INTENSITE CE
SAMEDI SOIR ET LA NUIT PROCHAINE GRACE A UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE FAVORISEE PAR LA MISE EN PLACE D'UN CANAL D'EVACUATION AU
SUD DU SYSTEME A L'AVANT D'UN LOINTAIN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, COMBINEE A
UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. NEANMOINS, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD PUIS
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE PAR
INTERACTION AVEC CE THALWEG, CE QUI DEVRAIT AMORCER UNE TENDANCE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. DE PLUS, LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD LE
FERA CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A PLUS FAIBLE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE,
CONTRIBUANT AUSSI A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. COURTNEY DEVRAIT AINSI
S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT LUNDI MATIN. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, DANS UN CONTEXTE FORTEMENT CISAILLE, COURTNEY
POURRAIT PERDRE CERTAINES DE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET LA
CONVECTION DEVRAIT S'ATTENUER, LE FAISANT EVOLUER VERS UN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL PUIS EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE SANS CONVECTION PROFONDE
PRES DU CENTRE. DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PUIS GRAND FRAIS
POURRONT PERDURER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DE
PRESSION JUSQU'A MERCREDI, AVANT DISSIPATION PLUS FRANCHE DU SYSTEME
LES JOURS SUIVANTS.

COURTNEY NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291338
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20242025
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 90.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 929 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/30 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/30 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/31 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/03/31 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/01 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100

72H: 2025/04/01 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/04/02 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 0

120H: 2025/04/03 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0-

TROPICAL SYSTEM COURTNEY FORMED IN THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY SINCE MARCH 22ND AND WAS NAMED BY THE AUSTRALIAN
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY ON TUESDAY MARCH 25TH. THE SYSTEM HAS SINCE
BENEFITED FROM FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT
WHILE MOVING WESTWARDS, REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY
MARCH 27TH, THEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY MARCH 28TH AT
12UTC.
THIS SATURDAY, AS IT KEPT MOVING WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST, IT
APPROACHED THE 90TH MERIDIAN, WHICH IT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING, THUS
ENTERING THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN. LA REUNION RSMC IS NOW
TAKING OVER FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BOM FOR OPERATIONAL MONITORING OF
COURTNEY.

COURTNEY'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS NEAR 6.0 THIS MORNING, CLIMBING BETWEEN
6.5 AND 7.0 THIS AFTERNOON. THE FINAL T-NUMBER IS THUS ESTIMATED AT
7.0- A 12UTC, BEARING IN MIND THAT THE METEOSAT PARALLAX EFFECT COULD
LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATION. SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES (GPM
AT 0442Z, GCOMW AT 0730Z, F18 AT 1008Z) HAVE SHOWN A VERY SOLID AND
RATHER COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE. THESE ELEMENTS LEAD US TO ESTIMATE
COURTNEY'S INTENSITY AT 120 KT, PLACING IT AT VITC STAGE, SLIGHTLY
ABOVE OBJECTIVE ADT/AIDT ESTIMATES OF 130 KT (1MIN WINDS). AT 12UTC,
THE CYCLONE'S CENTER WAS STILL AT 90.2E. IT SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH
MERIDIAN BETWEEN 13 AND 14UTC.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DUE TO A RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST, COURTNEY HAS BEGUN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TURN THIS SATURDAY EVENING. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN
CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY, ALSO ATTRACTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE
DOWN INTO THE MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. ON MONDAY,
COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION AT
700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, COURTNEY SHOULD REMAIN VERY INTENSE THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT THANKS TO EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FAVORED BY
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
AHEAD OF A DISTANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, COMBINED WITH GOOD OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. NEVERTHELESS, THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY, THROUGH INTERACTION WITH THIS
TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. IN ADDITION, THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT OVER LOWER ENERGY CONTENT
SURFACE WATERS, ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING. COURTNEY IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE MONDAY
MORNING. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LACKING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES MORE CLEARLY OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291338
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/14/20242025
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/03/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 90.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 7.0/7.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 929 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 120 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/03/2025 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 30/03/2025 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/03/2025 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 31/03/2025 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 01/04/2025 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 100

72H: 01/04/2025 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/04/2025 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 140 NO: 0

120H: 03/04/2025 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=7.0-

LE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL COURTNEY EST NE DANS LA ZONE DE
RESPONSABILITE AUSTRALIENNE DEPUIS LE 22 MARS ET A ETE BAPTISE PAR LE
BOM AUSTRALIEN MARDI 25 MARS. LE SYSTEME A DEPUIS BENEFICIE DE
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A SON DEVELOPPEMENT TOUT EN
SUIVANT UN DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST, ATTEIGNANT LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL DEPUIS JEUDI 27 MARS AU MATIN, PUIS CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
VENDREDI 28 MARS A 12UTC.
CE SAMEDI, SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST
L'AMENE A S'APPROCHER DU MERIDIEN 90E, QU'IL FRANCHIRA CE SOIR,
PENETRANT AINSI DANS LE BASSIN SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN. LE CMRS
DE LA REUNION PREND DONC A PRESENT LE RELAIS DU BOM AUSTRALIEN POUR
LE SUIVI OPERATIONNEL DE COURTNEY.

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE COURTNEY S'EST AMELIOREE AU COURS DE LA
JOURNEE AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE PROCHE DE 6.0 CE MATIN,
GRIMPANT ENTRE T6.5 ET T7.0 CET APRES-MIDI. LE NOMBRE T-FINAL EST
AINSI ESTIME A 7.0- A 12UTC, SACHANT QUE L'EFFET DE PARALLAXE DU
SATELLITE METEOSAT POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE LEGERE SOUS-ESTIMATION.
LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SUCCESSIVES (GPM A 0442Z, GCOMW A 0730Z, F18 A
1008Z) MONTRENT UN COEUR CONVECTIF TRES SOLIDE ET RELATIVEMENT
COMPACT. CES ELEMENTS INCITENT A ESTIMER L'INTENSITE DE COURTNEY A
120 KT, LE CLASSANT AU STADE DE CTTI, UN PEU AU-DESSUS DES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ADT/AIDT QUI SONT A 130 KT (VENTS 1MIN). A
12UTC, LE CENTRE DU CYCLONE SE SITUAIT ENCORE VERS 90.2E. SON PASSAGE
DU MERIDIEN 90E DEVRAIT SE FAIRE ENTRE 13 ET 14UTC.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, EN LIEN AVEC UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE ET
HAUTE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-EST PUIS A L'EST, COURTNEY A COMMENCE UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST CE SAMEDI SOIR. LE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT ENSUITE
S'INCURVER VERS LE SUD DIMANCHE, EGALEMENT ATTIRE PAR UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE CIRCULANT AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD DU SYSTEME. LORS DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME PREVU A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PUIS DANS LES
BASSES COUCHES. LUNDI, COURTNEY DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER TRES LENTEMENT AU
SEIN D'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE A 700HPA, PUIS LE MOUVEMENT
DEVRAIT REPRENDRE VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI, LE MINIMUM
DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL ETANT REPRIS DANS LE FLUX D'ALIZES SUR LA
FACE NORD DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL DE SURFACE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, COURTNEY CONSERVE UNE TRES FORTE INTENSITE CE
SAMEDI SOIR ET LA NUIT PROCHAINE GRACE A UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE FAVORISEE PAR LA MISE EN PLACE D'UN CANAL D'EVACUATION AU
SUD DU SYSTEME A L'AVANT D'UN LOINTAIN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, COMBINEE A
UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. NEANMOINS, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD PUIS
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT AUGMENTER A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE PAR
INTERACTION AVEC CE THALWEG, CE QUI DEVRAIT AMORCER UNE TENDANCE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. DE PLUS, LE MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD LE
FERA CIRCULER SUR DES EAUX A PLUS FAIBLE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE,
CONTRIBUANT AUSSI A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. COURTNEY DEVRAIT AINSI
S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT LUNDI MATIN. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, DANS UN CONTEXTE FORTEMENT CISAILLE, COURTNEY
POURRAIT PERDRE CERTAINES DE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET LA
CONVECTION DEVRAIT S'ATTENUER, LE FAISANT EVOLUER VERS UN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL PUIS EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE SANS CONVECTION PROFONDE
PRES DU CENTRE. DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT PUIS GRAND FRAIS
POURRONT PERDURER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DE
PRESSION JUSQU'A MERCREDI, AVANT DISSIPATION PLUS FRANCHE DU SYSTEME
LES JOURS SUIVANTS.

COURTNEY NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291224
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/03/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 29/03/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY) 929 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 90.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/120 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/03/30 AT 00 UTC:
19.9 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/03/30 AT 12 UTC:
21.6 S / 88.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 290900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250329072911
2025032906 27S COURTNEY 014 02 250 11 SATL 030
T000 180S 0910E 120 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 191S 0893E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 206S 0882E 105 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 218S 0878E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 230S 0880E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 242S 0882E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 253S 0862E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 91.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 91.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.1S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.6S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.8S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.0S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.2S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.3S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 90.6E.
29MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
488 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z AND 300900Z.
FOR FINAL WARNING.
//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1072E 45
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032818 174S 931E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032900 176S 921E 115
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
2725032906 180S 910E 120
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 91.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 91.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.1S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.6S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.8S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.0S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.2S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.3S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 90.6E.
29MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
488 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (DIANNE) WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 290648
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:18S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0648 UTC 29 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 15 nautical
miles of
latitude eighteen decimal one south (18.1S)
longitude ninety decimal eight east (90.8E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 100 knots
Central pressure: 947 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 100 knots near the centre easing to 85 knots by 0600 UTC 30
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in NW quadrant with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 29 March: Within 35 nautical miles of 19.3 south 89.1 east
Central pressure 948 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 30 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 20.6 south 87.8 east
Central pressure 956 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by Mauritius Meteorological Service.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 290057
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:18S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0057 UTC 29 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 15 nautical
miles of
latitude seventeen decimal five south (17.5S)
longitude ninety one decimal nine east (91.9E)
Recent movement : west at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 100 knots
Central pressure: 947 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 100 knots near the centre easing to 90 knots by 0000 UTC 30
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 29 March: Within 35 nautical miles of 18.7 south 89.9 east
Central pressure 944 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 30 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 19.9 south 88.4 east
Central pressure 952 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 29 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250328202624
2025032818 27S COURTNEY 013 02 260 16 SATL 020
T000 174S 0930E 115 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 182S 0909E 115 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 193S 0892E 110 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 207S 0880E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 220S 0877E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 238S 0885E 065 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 250S 0869E 045 R034 030 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 254S 0831E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 93.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 93.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.2S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.3S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.0S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.8S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.0S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.4S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 92.5E.
28MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
385 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z AND 292100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1072E 45
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032806 168S 957E 85
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032812 171S 946E 110
2725032818 174S 930E 115
2725032818 174S 930E 115
2725032818 174S 930E 115
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 93.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 93.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.2S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.3S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.0S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.8S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.0S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.4S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 92.5E.
28MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
385 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z AND 292100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 281856
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S093E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1856 UTC 28 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 15 nautical
miles of
latitude seventeen decimal four south (17.4S)
longitude ninety three decimal one east (93.1E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 13 knots
Maximum winds : 95 knots
Central pressure: 954 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 95 knots near the centre increasing to 95 knots by 0600 UTC 29
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 29 March: Within 35 nautical miles of 18.1 south 90.8 east
Central pressure 945 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 29 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 19.1 south 89.0 east
Central pressure 948 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 29 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 281317
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S094E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1317 UTC 28 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 10 nautical
miles of
latitude seventeen decimal three south (17.3S)
longitude ninety four decimal four east (94.4E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 95 knots
Central pressure: 952 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 95 knots near the centre increasing to 100 knots by 0000 UTC
29 March.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 29 March: Within 30 nautical miles of 17.8 south 92.1 east
Central pressure 947 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 29 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 18.7 south 90.0 east
Central pressure 944 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 28 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250328082236
2025032806 27S COURTNEY 012 02 265 16 SATL 060
T000 168S 0955E 080 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 095 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 173S 0930E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 180S 0908E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 190S 0891E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 205S 0879E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 226S 0877E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 240S 0877E 045 R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 250S 0856E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 95.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 95.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.3S 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.0S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.0S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.5S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.6S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.0S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.0S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 94.9E.
28MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
288 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z AND 290900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1072E 45
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032712 168S 992E 90
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032718 167S 981E 85
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032800 167S 972E 80
2725032806 168S 955E 80
2725032806 168S 955E 80
2725032806 168S 955E 80
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 95.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 95.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.3S 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.0S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.0S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.5S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.6S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.0S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.0S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 94.9E.
28MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
288 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z AND 290900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 280652
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S096E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0652 UTC 28 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 20 nautical
miles of
latitude sixteen decimal seven south (16.7S)
longitude ninety five decimal seven east (95.7E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 75 knots
Central pressure: 970 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 0600 UTC 29
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas.
Extending to be with within 25 nautical miles in NE quadrant from 1800 UTC 29
March

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 28 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 17.3 south 93.5 east
Central pressure 966 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 29 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 18.0 south 91.2 east
Central pressure 954 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 28 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 280107
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:16S097E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0107 UTC 28 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 30 nautical
miles of
latitude sixteen decimal five south (16.5S)
longitude ninety six decimal seven east (96.7E)
Recent movement : west at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 960 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 85 knots by 0000 UTC 29
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas. Extending to be
with within 25 nautical miles in NE quadrant from 1200 UTC 29 March and within
30 nautical miles in SE quadrant from 1800 UTC 29 March.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 28 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.0 south 94.7 east
Central pressure 963 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 29 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 17.6 south 92.4 east
Central pressure 959 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 28 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 271841
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S098E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1841 UTC 27 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 20 nautical
miles of
latitude sixteen decimal six south (16.6S)
longitude ninety eight decimal zero east (98.0E)
Recent movement : west at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 85 knots
Central pressure: 959 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 85 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 1800 UTC 28
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 28 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.8 south 95.7 east
Central pressure 959 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 28 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.2 south 93.4 east
Central pressure 955 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 28 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 271246
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S099E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1246 UTC 27 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 20 nautical
miles of
latitude sixteen decimal eight south (16.8S)
longitude ninety eight decimal seven east (98.7E)
Recent movement : west at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 964 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 85 knots by 1200 UTC 28
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 28 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.8 south 96.5 east
Central pressure 964 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 28 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 17.1 south 94.2 east
Central pressure 959 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 27 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250327075258
2025032706 27S COURTNEY 010 01 275 10 SATL 060
T000 168S 1000E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 167S 0980E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 169S 0958E 095 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 174S 0935E 100 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 181S 0912E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 202S 0880E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 224S 0872E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 237S 0870E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 100.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 100.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.7S 98.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.9S 95.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.4S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.1S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.2S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.4S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.7S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 99.5E.
27MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z AND 280900Z.
//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1072E 45
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032600 177S1054E 55
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032606 177S1041E 60
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032618 173S1022E 70
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032700 169S1010E 75
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 100.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 100.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.7S 98.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.9S 95.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.4S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.1S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.2S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.4S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.7S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 99.5E.
27MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 270650
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S100E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0650 UTC 27 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 20 nautical
miles of
latitude sixteen decimal nine south (16.9S)
longitude ninety nine decimal nine east (99.9E)
Recent movement : west at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 75 knots
Central pressure: 968 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre increasing to 80 knots by 0600 UTC 28
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 15 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 15 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 15 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 27 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.8 south 98.0 east
Central pressure 968 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 28 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.9 south 95.9 east
Central pressure 963 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 27 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 270050
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S101E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0050 UTC 27 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 30 nautical
miles of
latitude seventeen decimal one south (17.1S)
longitude one hundred and one decimal zero east (101.0E)
Recent movement : west at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 972 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre increasing to 80 knots by 0000 UTC 28
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 27 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.9 south 99.5 east
Central pressure 971 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 28 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.7 south 97.4 east
Central pressure 963 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 27 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 261901
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S102E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1901 UTC 26 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 25 nautical
miles of
latitude seventeen decimal three south (17.3S)
longitude one hundred and two decimal one east (102.1E)
Recent movement : west at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 75 knots
Central pressure: 966 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 1800 UTC 27
March.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and heavy
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate to
heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 27 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 17.0 south 100.1 east
Central pressure 961 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 27 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.8 south 98.2 east
Central pressure 952 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 27 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 261245
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:18S103E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1245 UTC 26 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal five south (17.5S)
longitude one hundred and three decimal two east (103.2E)
Recent movement : west at 13 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 980 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre increasing to 70 knots by 1200 UTC 27
March.

Winds above 64 knots developing within 20 nautical miles in SE and SW quadrant
by 0600 UTC 27 March with high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles in SE and SW quadrants extending
to within 25 nautical miles in NE and NW quadrants by 0600 UTC 27 March with
very rough seas.

Winds above 34 knots 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant. with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 27 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 17.1 south 101.1 east
Central pressure 977 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 27 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.9 south 99.2 east
Central pressure 969 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 26 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 260658
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:18S104E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0658 UTC 26 MARCH 2025

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal seven south (17.7S)
longitude one hundred and four decimal three east (104.3E)
Recent movement : west at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 65 knots by 0600 UTC 27
March.

Winds above 64 knots developing within 20 nautical miles in SE and SW quadrant
by 0600 UTC 27 March with high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in SE and SW quadrants extending
to NE and NW quadrants by 0600 UTC 27 March with very rough seas.

Winds above 34 knots 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant. with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 26 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 17.6 south 102.3 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 27 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 17.3 south 100.2 east
Central pressure 974 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 26 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250326013655
2025032600 27S COURTNEY 007 01 250 15 SATL 060
T000 178S 1053E 055 R050 005 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 179S 1031E 065 R064 005 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 176S 1011E 070 R064 005 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 174S 0990E 075 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 173S 0970E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 181S 0924E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 194S 0887E 085 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T120 219S 0858E 065 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 105.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 105.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.9S 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.4S 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.3S 97.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.1S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.4S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.9S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 104.7E.
26MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
565 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1068E 45
2725032600 178S1053E 55
2725032600 178S1053E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 105.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 105.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.9S 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.4S 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.3S 97.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.1S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.4S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.9S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 104.7E.
26MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
565 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 260053
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S106E400:11:00
SECURITE
UPDATED

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0053 UTC 26 MARCH 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal four south (17.4S)
longitude one hundred and six decimal three east (106.3E)
Recent movement : west at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 987 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 0000 UTC 27
March.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in SE and SW quadrants with very
rough seas.

Winds above 34 knots 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 26 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 17.7 south 104.3 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 27 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 17.4 south 102.4 east
Central pressure 977 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 26 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 251855
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S107E400:11:00
SECURITE
UPDATED

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1855 UTC 25 MARCH 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal two south (17.2S)
longitude one hundred and seven decimal three east (107.3E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 1800 UTC 26
March.

Winds above 34 knots 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant. with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 26 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.4 south 105.1 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 26 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 17.1 south 103.0 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 26 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTAU05 APRF 251830
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:17S107E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1830 UTC 25 MARCH 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Courtney was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal two south (17.2S)
longitude one hundred and seven decimal three east (107.3E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 1800 UTC 26
March.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 26 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.4 south 105.1 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 26 March: Within 65 nautical miles of 17.1 south 103.0 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 26 March 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250325135327
2025032512 27S TWENTYSEVE 005 01 255 09 SATL 060
T000 170S 1082E 040 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 173S 1061E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 173S 1040E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 170S 1020E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 167S 0999E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 167S 0956E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 179S 0910E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 193S 0878E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 108.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.3S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.3S 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0S 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7S 99.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.7S 95.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.3S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 107.7E.
25MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 461 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 40
2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1091E 40
2725032512 170S1082E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 108.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.3S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.3S 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0S 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7S 99.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.7S 95.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.3S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 107.7E.
25MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 461 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250325012839
2025032500 27S TWENTYSEVE 003 01 260 05 SATL 060
T000 167S 1100E 035 R034 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 169S 1084E 040 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 170S 1065E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 169S 1047E 040 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 165S 1031E 040 R034 010 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 163S 0995E 045 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 167S 0948E 045 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 179S 0915E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.9S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.0S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.9S 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.5S 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.3S 99.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.7S 94.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.9S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 109.6E.
25MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 408 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 165S1111E 35
2725032418 166S1105E 35
2725032500 167S1100E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.9S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.0S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250324133346
2025032412 27S TWENTYSEVE 001 01 240 11 SATL 060
T000 166S 1110E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 170S 1094E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 172S 1082E 040 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 175S 1067E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 176S 1047E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 175S 1007E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 176S 0962E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 188S 0916E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 111.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 111.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.0S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.2S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.5S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.6S 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.5S 100.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.6S 96.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.8S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 110.6E.
24MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 384 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
2725032412 166S1110E 35
NNNN