Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KANTO-25
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/15/20242025
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (KANTO)

2.A POSITION 2025/04/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.8 S / 46.2 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 220

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/04/21 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 195

24H: 2025/04/22 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN NEAR THE
CENTER. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTICEABLE MUCH FURTHER FROM THE
CENTER IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, IN THE FLOW
CONVERGENCE ZONE. AS A RESULT OF KANTO'S EAST-SOUTHEAST SHIFT, THE
LAST ASCAT SWATH OF 1915UTC SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION
WITH WIND MAXIMA IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THESE
VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW 34KT, SO KANTO REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DRIVEN BY AN INCREASING WEST-NORTH-WEST
FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH, KANTO HAS RESUMED ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES, I.E. BY TUESDAY.

HAVING RESUMED ITS MOVEMENT AND LEFT THE AREA BELOW THE TROUGH, KANTO
IS NOW EXPERIENCING A FURTHER INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR, REINFORCING
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE SITUATION IS THEREFORE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC, AND THE EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE
SHOULD NOT BE LONG IN COMING BEFORE IT FILLS IN BY TUESDAY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON INHABITED TERRITORIES.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210029
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/15/20242025
1.A DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 15 (KANTO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/04/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 33.8 S / 46.2 E
(TRENTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 220

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/04/2025 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 195

24H: 22/04/2025 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A CONTINUE DE
S'AFFAIBLIR A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST NOTABLE
BIEN PLUS LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LA PARTIE EST DE LA CIRCULATION, DANS
LA ZONE DE CONVERGENCE DES FLUX. DU FAIT DU DEPLACEMENT DE KANTO VERS
L'EST-SUD-EST, LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT DE 1915UTC MONTRE UNE
CIRCULATION LEGEREMENT ASYMETRIQUE AVEC DES MAXIMUMS DE VENT DANS LA
PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION. CES VALEURS SONT UN PEU INFERIEURES A
34KT LAISSANT ALORS KANTO AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : SOUS L'IMPULSION D'UN
FLUX DIRECTEUR D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN HAUSSE ENTRE UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD,
KANTO A REPRIS UN MOUVEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST. CE DEPLACEMENT VA
ETRE CONSERVE JUSQU'A LA DISSIPATION DU SYSTEME, C'EST-A-DIRE A
ECHEANCE DE MARDI.

AYANT REPRIS SON DEPLACEMENT ET QUITTANT LA ZONE SOUS LE TALWEG,
KANTO SE RETROUVE AVEC UNE NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST,
RENFORCANT LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. LE CONTEXTE EST DONC DE PLUS EN
PLUS BAROCLINE ET LE STADE DE DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE NE DEVRAIT
PLUS TARDER AVANT DE SE COMBLANT D'ICI MARDI.

CE SYSTEME NE GENERE PAS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 210010 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/04/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 21/04/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (KANTO) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.8 S / 46.2 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/04/21 AT 12 UTC:
34.5 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 105 NM

24H, VALID 2025/04/22 AT 00 UTC:
35.8 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE GMDSS MARINE
WARNINGS FQIO20 FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06UTC AND 18UTC BY METEO
FRANCE REUNION.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 210000
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/04/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 21/04/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 (KANTO) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.8 S / 46.2 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/04/21 AT 12 UTC:
34.5 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 105 NM

24H, VALID 2025/04/22 AT 00 UTC:
35.8 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE GMDSS MARINE
WARNINGS FQIO20 FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06UTC AND 18UTC BY METEO
FRANCE REUNION.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/15/20242025
1.A SUBTROPICAL STORM 15 (KANTO)

2.A POSITION 2025/04/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.3 S / 44.8 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 280 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 175

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/04/21 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 220

24H: 2025/04/21 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED VERY SUBDUED, WITH
PEAKS OF FAIRLY LIMITED EXTENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE. THE CLOUD STRUCTURE IS WINDING UP, WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING FURTHER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
IN THE ABSENCE OF DIFFUSIOMETRIC DATA, AND GIVEN THE SLIGHT
DEGRADATION OF THE WRAP IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, WE CAN
ESTIMATE THAT THE WIND STRUCTURE IS STILL FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL, WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 35KT. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, KANTO REMAINS
A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT 18UTC.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DRIVEN BY AN INCREASING WEST-NORTH-WEST
FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH, KANTO HAS RESUMED ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES, I.E. BY TUESDAY.

HAVING RESUMED ITS MOVEMENT AND LEFT THE AREA BELOW THE TROUGH, KANTO
IS NOW EXPERIENCING A FURTHER INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR, REINFORCING
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE CONTEXT IS THEREFORE INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC, AND THE SUBTROPICAL STORM STAGE IS UNLIKELY TO LAST MUCH
LONGER, POSSIBLY UNTIL 18UTC. ON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AGAIN, WHILE FILLING IN BY TUESDAY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON INHABITED TERRITORIES.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201821
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/15/20242025
1.A TEMPETE SUBTROPICALE 15 (KANTO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/04/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 33.3 S / 44.8 E
(TRENTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 280 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 175

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/04/2025 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 220

24H: 21/04/2025 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE TRES
ATTENUEE AVEC DES SOMMETS DONT L'EXTENSION EST ASSEZ LIMITEE DU FAIT
DE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE. LA
STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE PRESENTE UN ENROULEMENT AVEC UNE ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE S'ELOIGNANT DE PLUS EN PLUS DU CENTRE. EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES ET DU FAIT DE LA LEGERE DEGRADATION DE
L'ENROULEMENT DANS LE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST, ON PEUT ESTIMER QUE LA
STRUCTURE DE VENT RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ SYMETRIQUE AVEC DES VALEURS
MAXIMALES DE L'ORDRE DE 35KT. DANS CES CONDITIONS, KANTO RESTE AU
STADE DE TEMPETE SUBTROPICALE A 18UTC.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : SOUS L'IMPULSION D'UN
FLUX DIRECTEUR D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN HAUSSE ENTRE UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD,
KANTO A REPRIS UN MOUVEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST. CE DEPLACEMENT VA
ETRE CONSERVE JUSQU'A LA DISSIPATION DU SYSTEME, C'EST-A-DIRE A
ECHEANCE DE MARDI.

AYANT REPRIS SON DEPLACEMENT ET QUITTANT LA ZONE SOUS LE TALWEG,
KANTO SE RETROUVE AVEC UNE NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST,
RENFORCANT LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. LE CONTEXTE EST DONC DE PLUS EN
PLUS BAROCLINE ET LE STADE DE TEMPETE SUBTROPICALE NE DEVRAIT PLUS
DURER LONGTEMPS, POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'A 18UTC. EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE NATURE EXTRATROPICALE TOUT EN SE
COMBLANT D'ICI MARDI.

CE SYSTEME NE GENERE PAS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 201757
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/04/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 20/04/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SUBTROPICAL STORM 15 (KANTO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.3 S / 44.8 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 80
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/04/21 AT 06 UTC:
33.9 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 120 NM

24H, VALID 2025/04/21 AT 18 UTC:
35.0 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/15/20242025
1.A SUBTROPICAL STORM 15 (KANTO)

2.A POSITION 2025/04/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.3 S / 43.9 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 280 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 175

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/04/21 00 UTC: 33.9 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 240

24H: 2025/04/21 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 220

36H: 2025/04/22 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
SOME NEW OBJECTIVE DATA INPUT ON SYSTEM 15-20242025 HAS BEEN
AVAILABLE SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z ANALYSIS, SHOWING THE PRESENCE OF
GALE-FORCE WINDS LAST NIGHT AND THIS SUNDAY MORNING : A 0347Z SMOS
PASS MEASURED WINDS OF 40/45 KT UNDER THE CONVECTIVE BAND CURVING
WEST OF THE CENTER, AND A 0653Z ASCAT-C PASS MEASURED WINDS OF 35/40
KT. THIS INTENSITY INFORMATION, COMBINED WITH THE CURVED BAND
CONVECTIVE PATTERN OBSERVED THIS MORNING, JUSTIFIES THE SYSTEM'S
CLASSIFICATION AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, NAMED "KANTO" AT 10Z BY
MADAGASCAR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. THE BEST-TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN
REVISED AFTERHAND, UPGRADING THE 06Z INTENSITY TO SUBTROPICAL STORM
STATUS WITH WINDS OF 40 KT.
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS SOMEWHAT WEAKENED, WITH CLOUD
TOPS WARMING TO -35/-40C, PROBABLY DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR WRAPPING WITHIN THE CIRCULATION. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL, WITH A
PERFECTLY DEFINED VORTEX, TESTIFYING OF A SYMMETRICAL WARM CORE
EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID-LEVELS. BY INERTIA, THE SYSTEM IS LEFT AT
SUBTROPICAL STORM STAGE, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS STILL ESTIMATED AT 40 KT
IN THE CIRCULATION'S NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE LLCC'S MOVEMENT HAS TEMPORARILY
SLOWED DOWN OVER THE DAY, DRAWING A SMALL LOOP BELOW THE UPPER
TROUGH. IT SHOULD RESUME A MORE RAPID EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
FROM TONIGHT AND MONDAY ONWARDS, DRIVEN BY AN INCREASING
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH-WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
BENEFITING SINCE EARLY MORNING OF A NARROW WINDOW FAVORING ITS
SUBTROPICALIZATION BELOW THE UPPER TROUGH, IN A RATHER LOW-SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND SST NEAR 22C. THIS WINDOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE FROM
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY, DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR,
REINFORCING DRY AIR INTRUSIONS AND MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC, AS WELL AS DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
(SST NEAR 20C ON MONDAY). CONSEQUENTLY, SUBTROPICAL STORM STAGE
SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG FROM NOW ON, POSSIBLY UNTIL 18Z. ON MONDAY,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AGAIN, WHILE FILLING
IN BY TUESDAY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON INHABITED TERRITORIES.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201221
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/15/20242025
1.A TEMPETE SUBTROPICALE 15 (KANTO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/04/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 33.3 S / 43.9 E
(TRENTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 280 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 175

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/04/2025 00 UTC: 33.9 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUBTROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 240

24H: 21/04/2025 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 220

36H: 22/04/2025 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
DE NOUVELLES DONNEES OBJECTIVES SUR LE SYSTEME 15-20242025 ONT ETE
DISPONIBLES UN PEU APRES L'ANALYSE DE 06Z, MONTRANT LA PRESENCE DE
COUP DE VENT EN FIN DE NUIT DERNIERE ET CE DIMANCHE MATIN : UNE PASSE
SMOS A 0347Z A MESURE DES VENTS DE 40/45 KT SOUS LA BANDE CONVECTIVE
S'ENROULANT A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET UNE PASSE ASCAT-C A 0653Z A
MESURE DES VENTS DE 35/40 KT. CES INFORMATIONS D'INTENSITE, COMBINEES
AVEC LA STRUCTURE CONVECTIVE EN BANDE INCURVEE OBSERVEE CE MATIN,
JUSTIFIENT DONC LA CLASSIFICATION DU SYSTEME EN TEMPETE SUBTROPICALE,
BAPTISEE "KANTO" A 10Z PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR.
LA BEST-TRACK A AUSSI ETE RETOUCHEE A POSTERIORI, REHAUSSANT
L'INTENSITE DU POINT DE 06Z AU STADE DE TEMPETE SUBTROPICALE AVEC DES
VENTS DE 40 KT.
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST UN PEU ATTENUEE
AVEC DES SOMMETS SE RECHAUFFANT A -35/-40C, PROBABLEMENT PAR MANQUE
D'INSTABILITE ET EN LIEN AVEC DE L'AIR SEC DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT QUI
S'ENROULE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION. EN REVANCHE, LA STRUCTURE
NUAGEUSE EST DEVENUE PLUS SYMETRIQUE AVEC UN VORTEX PARFAITEMENT
DESSINE, TEMOIGNANT D'UN COEUR CHAUD SYMETRIQUE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. PAR INERTIE, LE SYSTEME EST LAISSE AU STADE DE
TEMPETE SUBTROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES A 40 KT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE DEPLACEMENT DU CENTRE DEPRESSIONNAIRE A
RALENTI TEMPORAIREMENT CE DIMANCHE EN FAISANT UNE PETITE BOUCLE SOUS
LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. IL DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT REPRENDRE UN MOUVEMENT
VERS L'EST-SUD-EST A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET LUNDI DANS UN
FLUX DIRECTEUR D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN HAUSSE ENTRE UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD-OUEST ET UNE DORSALE AU NORD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE ET DE STRUCTURE CONVECTIVE, LE SYSTEME A
BENEFICIE DEPUIS LA FIN DE NUIT DERNIERE D'UNE BREVE FENETRE DE
SUBTROPICALISATION SOUS LE TALWEG, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PEU CISAILLE
ET SUR DES SST A 22C. CETTE FENETRE DEVRAIT SE REFERMER A PARTIR DE
LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET SURTOUT LUNDI AVEC UNE NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST, RENFORCANT LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET RENDANT
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, S'AJOUTANT AUSSI A LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE (SST A 20C LUNDI). PAR CONSEQUENT, LE
STADE DE TEMPETE SUBTROPICALE NE DEVRAIT PLUS DURER LONGTEMPS,
POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'A 18Z. EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
REPRENDRE UNE NATURE EXTRATROPICALE TOUT EN SE COMBLANT D'ICI MARDI.

CE SYSTEME NE GENERE PAS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 201200
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/04/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/15 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 20/04/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SUBTROPICAL STORM 15 (KANTO) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.3 S / 43.9 E
(THIRTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/04/21 AT 00 UTC:
33.9 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 130 NM

24H, VALID 2025/04/21 AT 12 UTC:
34.6 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 120 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=