Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ALVIN-25
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 311558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.05.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 109.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.05.2025 20.5N 109.9W WEAK
00UTC 01.06.2025 21.7N 110.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2025 23.0N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311558


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 311558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.05.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 109.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.05.2025 0 20.5N 109.9W 1004 28
0000UTC 01.06.2025 12 21.7N 110.1W 1006 25
1200UTC 01.06.2025 24 23.0N 109.3W 1010 23
0000UTC 02.06.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311558


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 311600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 012 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 012 CORRECTED
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.8N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
311600Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 109.6W.
31MAY25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
843 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 12 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TO REFLECT FINAL WARNING
STATUS.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 311600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.8N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
311600Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 109.6W.
31MAY25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
843 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
312200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 311436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
800 AM MST SAT MAY 31 2025

...ALVIN DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW...
...SWELLS AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 109.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15
KM/H). A SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ALVIN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND
ONLINE AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 311437
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
800 AM MST SAT MAY 31 2025

COOL WATERS, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON ALVIN. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS, AND HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A
POSSIBLY GENEROUS 30 KT. CONTINUED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY RETURN OF DEEP CONVECTION,
AND THEREFORE THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM AS IT
HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW.

THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TODAY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL OPEN UP
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CREATING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 20.7N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 311436
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
1500 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 109.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ALVIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 19.6N 109.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 109.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 21.1N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.3N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 109.3W.
31MAY25. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 893 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 1005
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z AND 010400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 310839
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
200 AM MST SAT MAY 31 2025

A COLLAPSING AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF
ALVIN'S CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 35 KT, BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE OF 32-40
KT AND CLOSEST TO THE TAFB T-2.5/35 KT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION. GLOBAL
MODELS PREDICT THAT THE STRONG SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY NEW ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FROM
FORMING. ALVIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY.

ALVIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 9 KT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 20.0N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/0600Z 22.3N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 310836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
200 AM MST Sat May 31 2025

...ALVIN FORECAST TO A BECOME POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 109.3W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 109.3 West. Alvin is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly slower
northward motion is expected during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Alvin is
expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate entirely
on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts
of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 310836
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0900 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 109.3W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 109.3W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.3N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 109.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 310357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.05.2025

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 109.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.05.2025 0 18.8N 109.2W 1001 33
1200UTC 31.05.2025 12 20.2N 109.9W 1004 27
0000UTC 01.06.2025 24 21.4N 110.0W 1006 24
1200UTC 01.06.2025 36 22.5N 109.7W 1009 21
0000UTC 02.06.2025 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310357


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 310357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.05.2025

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 109.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.05.2025 18.8N 109.2W WEAK
12UTC 31.05.2025 20.2N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2025 21.4N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2025 22.5N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310357


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 109.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 109.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.3N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.7N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.0N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
310400Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 109.1W.
31MAY25. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 946 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND 010400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 310248
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
800 PM MST FRI MAY 30 2025

...ALVIN WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 109.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND ALVIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY
ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 310249
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
800 PM MST FRI MAY 30 2025

ALVIN IS LOSING STRENGTH DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF STRONG SHEAR AND
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED TO THE
SOUTH OF A DECAYING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40
KT. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND COOL SSTS SHOULD
CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING, AND ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY ON SUNDAY.

THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 9 KT. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. ALVIN IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A WEAK REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH BY THE TIME IT NEARS
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 19.1N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 21.7N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1200Z 23.0N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 310248
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0300 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.1W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.1W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.7N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.0N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.7N 108.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 108.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.4N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.8N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.4N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 109.0W.
30MAY25. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1003
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310400Z, 311000Z, 311600Z AND 312200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 302043
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
200 PM MST FRI MAY 30 2025

...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

...LARGE SWELL AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 109.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO
A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 302044
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
200 PM MST FRI MAY 30 2025

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ALVIN HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED TODAY.
ALVIN IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PUSHED OFF TO THE
NORTH AND BECOME ELONGATED, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE
UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES MISSED THE CENTER, BUT STILL PROVIDED
USEFUL INFORMATION THAT SHOWS SOMEWHAT LARGER 34-KT RADII, SO THESE
HAVE BEEN BEEN EXPANDED A BIT. THE ASCAT DATA SHOW WINDS UP TO 40
KT ABOUT 50 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER, BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE CENTER
WHERE THERE WAS A GAP IN ASCAT DATA. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T-2.5/35 KT, AND THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 41-47 KT
RANGE. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS NOT EMERGED FROM UNDERNEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST YET, AND BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-NORTHWEST, OR 335/9 KT.
ALVIN IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TOWARD THE EAST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LITTLE
CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK PREDICTION, WHICH LIES DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL ENVELOPE.

ALVIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
OF VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL DROP BELOW 26C ALONG ALVIN'S PATH IN ABOUT 6 HOURS.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ALVIN LOSING ITS CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY, WHICH IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST, AND ALVIN IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION PREDICTED TO
OCCUR IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 18.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 19.4N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 20.8N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0600Z 22.4N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 302043
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.4N 109.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.4N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 108.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 108.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.7N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.3N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.8N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.5N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 108.8W.
30MAY25. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1048
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 301435
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
800 AM MST FRI MAY 30 2025

ALVIN IS NOW MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR, AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS. THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE
UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE DEGRADED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. RECENT AMSR2 AND GMI MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT
THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS COMPLETELY ERODED. CI
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH REMAIN AT T-3.0/45 KT, AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE A BIT HIGHER. GIVEN THE LARGE
AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS ON THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0438 UTC THIS MORNING,
45 KT IS HELD FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWEST, OR 325/9-KT.
ALVIN IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TOWARD THE EAST
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK
PREDICTION, WHICH LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL
ENVELOPE.

ALVIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
OF VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL DROP BELOW 26C ALONG ALVIN'S PATH IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ALVIN LOSING ITS CONVECTION BY
SATURDAY, WHICH IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST, AND ALVIN IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION IN A LITTLE OVER 2
DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 17.4N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 18.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1200Z 23.5N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 301433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
800 AM MST FRI MAY 30 2025

...LARGE SWELL AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 108.8W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 301433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
1500 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 108.8W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 108.8W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 108.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 108.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.9N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.5N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 21.1N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.8N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.6N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 108.3W.
30MAY25. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1104
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 300839
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
200 AM MST FRI MAY 30 2025

ALVIN IS UNRAVELING QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SURFACE WIND DATA
PLACED THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS-UW
ESTIMATES THAT ALVIN HAS ENTERED A REGION OF STRONG SHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT, BASED ON THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS.

THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT. ALVIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
AIDS.

THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN ALVIN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 H. STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM
TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY THIS WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 16.6N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 17.9N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 19.5N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0600Z 22.8N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1800Z 24.6N 109.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025

...ALVIN SENDING LARGE SWELL TOWARDS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 108.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 108.3 West. Alvin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected to later today and this motion should
continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts
of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja
California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 300835
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0900 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 108.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.5N 109.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.6N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 108.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300407

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.05.2025

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 107.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.05.2025 0 15.1N 107.8W 1001 43
1200UTC 30.05.2025 12 16.6N 108.5W 1000 38
0000UTC 31.05.2025 24 18.6N 109.2W 1000 34
1200UTC 31.05.2025 36 20.3N 109.9W 1004 31
0000UTC 01.06.2025 48 21.9N 109.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 01.06.2025 60 23.5N 109.7W 1009 23
0000UTC 02.06.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300407


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 300407

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.05.2025

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 107.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.05.2025 15.1N 107.8W WEAK
12UTC 30.05.2025 16.6N 108.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2025 18.6N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2025 20.3N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2025 21.9N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2025 23.5N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300407


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 107.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 107.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.2N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.7N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.3N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.9N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.7N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 107.9W.
30MAY25. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1149
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 300234
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
800 PM MST Thu May 29 2025

Infrared cloud top temperatures have gradually warmed over the
center of Alvin this evening. Earlier AMSR-2 passive microwave
images showed a ragged convective structure on the west side of the
storm, and recent satellite trends indicate the system may already
be contending with some shear and intrusions of drier air. The
subjective Dvorak classifications and objective intensity estimates
range from 45-55 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.

Alvin is still moving to the northwest (325/10 kt) but should turn
north-northwestward and northward on Friday and Saturday toward a
weakness in the ridge created by a cutoff low offshore of Baja
California. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and no
major changes were made to the updated NHC track forecast.

Recent microwave data indicate the storm lacks an inner core, so
Alvin will be susceptible to the negative effects of increasing
shear and drier mid-level air during the next couple of days. In
addition, the track forecast brings Alvin over cooler waters as it
nears the Baja California peninsula. So, gradual weakening is
forecast as the associated convection is likely to become displaced
from the storm center beginning on Friday. This forecast shows
Alvin becoming post-tropical in 36 h and spinning down over the
weekend, in agreement with the global model fields and simulated
satellite imagery.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 16.0N 107.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 17.2N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 18.7N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 01/0000Z 21.9N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1200Z 23.7N 109.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
800 PM MST Thu May 29 2025

...ALVIN REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 107.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 107.9 West. Alvin is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected to begin on Friday and
continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Alvin is expected to degenerate to a post-tropical low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 300232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0300 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.9W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.9W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.9N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.7N 109.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 005/
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 106.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 106.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.0N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.6N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.1N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.5N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.0N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 107.2W.
29MAY25. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1223
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 292033
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
200 PM MST THU MAY 29 2025

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT ALVIN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SHOWING CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -75C LOCATED OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 45 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE
THAT PASS, AND INCREASING OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10 KT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY, THEN BEGIN TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS IT MOVES AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. BY TOMORROW NIGHT, ALVIN WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD
AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE STORM WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO. GIVEN THE LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS, THE
PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST HAS INCREASED THIS CYCLE TO 60 KT. TOMORROW,
ALVIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER
SSTS, HIGHER WIND SHEAR, AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WHICH WILL
INDUCE WEAKENING. LATEST MODEL DERIVED IR IMAGERY FROM BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT THE SYSTEM BECOMING DEVOID OF CONVECTION, AND
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST DEPICTS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN
48 H. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
A REMNANT LOW BEFORE IT NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 15.1N 107.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 17.6N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 19.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 01/0600Z 22.0N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/MORA=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 292032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025

...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. Alvin is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a
northward turn tomorrow and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected through
early tomorrow, but weakening is expected to begin by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mora


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 292032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.6N 108.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.1N 109.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.0N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER MORA/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 291600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 13.5N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 106.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.7N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.1N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.6N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.1N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.7N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.9N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 106.5W.
29MAY25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1303 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291200Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND
WIND RADII.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 291557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.05.2025

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 106.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.05.2025 14.3N 106.9W WEAK
00UTC 30.05.2025 15.3N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.05.2025 16.3N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2025 18.2N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2025 20.0N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2025 21.4N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291557


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 291557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.05.2025

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 106.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.05.2025 0 14.3N 106.9W 1006 31
0000UTC 30.05.2025 12 15.3N 107.9W 1004 36
1200UTC 30.05.2025 24 16.3N 109.0W 1003 37
0000UTC 31.05.2025 36 18.2N 109.2W 1004 31
1200UTC 31.05.2025 48 20.0N 109.9W 1006 25
0000UTC 01.06.2025 60 21.4N 109.9W 1007 21
1200UTC 01.06.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291557


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 13.5N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 106.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.7N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.1N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.6N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.1N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.7N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.9N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 106.5W.
29MAY25. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1303 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291200Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 291432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ALVIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 106.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 106.3 West. Alvin is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a
northward turn tomorrow and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected
through tonight, but weakening is expected to begin by late
tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Mora/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 291433
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
800 AM MST THU MAY 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED N MI SOUTH OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER.
ALTHOUGH THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADY AT
2.0/30 KT, THE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KT. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9 KT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY, THEN BEGIN TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS IT MOVES AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. BY TOMORROW NIGHT, ALVIN WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD
AS IT IS INFLUENCED MY A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

ALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY, WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND SHEAR FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT,
WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW AS THE STORM MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY
HIGHER SHEAR AND A DRIER ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER SSTS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE IT
NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 13.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MORA/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 291432
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
1500 UTC THU MAY 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.3W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.3W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 106.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MORA/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 290837
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
200 AM MST THU MAY 29 2025

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS REVEALED THAT THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY UNCHANGED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED
ON THE ASCAT DATA, WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE OTHER SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD
TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST, LARGELY BECAUSE OF
THE INITIAL POSITION, AND IT LIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
AIDS.

THE WINDOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN IS GRADUALLY CLOSING. THE
DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME
LATER TODAY, THOUGH THE SYSTEM ONLY HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS OF CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE NHC PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 50 KT AND IS AT THE TOP OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE
ITS ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT THIS POINT AND THE NHC FORECAST NOW
SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 60 H. BASED ON THE
LATEST TRACK AND SIZE FORECASTS, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO OR BAJA CALIFORNIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 13.3N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 15.6N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 20.3N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 01/0600Z 21.8N 108.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 02/0600Z 24.5N 108.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 290836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
200 AM MST Thu May 29 2025

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 106.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 106.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph. This
general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a
northward turn on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 290836
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.6N 108.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.3N 108.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.8N 108.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 24.5N 108.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 106.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 290358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.05.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 104.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.05.2025 12.8N 104.7W WEAK
12UTC 29.05.2025 14.2N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.05.2025 14.8N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.05.2025 15.7N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2025 17.1N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2025 18.9N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2025 20.3N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2025 21.6N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290358


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 290358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.05.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 104.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.05.2025 0 12.8N 104.7W 1007 23
1200UTC 29.05.2025 12 14.2N 107.1W 1006 29
0000UTC 30.05.2025 24 14.8N 108.3W 1004 32
1200UTC 30.05.2025 36 15.7N 109.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 31.05.2025 48 17.1N 109.9W 1004 30
1200UTC 31.05.2025 60 18.9N 110.2W 1005 28
0000UTC 01.06.2025 72 20.3N 109.6W 1006 22
1200UTC 01.06.2025 84 21.6N 109.0W 1009 18
0000UTC 02.06.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290358


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 290237
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
900 PM CST WED MAY 28 2025

THE SPRAWLING DEPRESSION HAS SHOWN A MODEST INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION CLOSER TO ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGES, BUT MOST OF THE FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN FARTHER
AWAY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. WITH LITTLE OVERALL STRUCTURAL
CHANGE, THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT HOLDING THE
INTENSITY AT 30 KT. OVERNIGHT ASCAT WIND DATA SHOULD PROVIDE MORE
INSIGHT INTO THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND FIELD STRUCTURE.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD (335/8 KT), BUT
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA INDUCES
A NORTHWARD TURN ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THIS CYCLE, ROUGHLY
IN BETWEEN THE LATEST SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WITHIN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER
WARM WATERS. THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING THAT OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE BROAD CYCLONE CAN DEVELOP A TIGHTER INNER CORE BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE, STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WILL DISRUPT ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND RESULT IN WEAKENING.
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 72 H AND
DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THE
LATEST TRACK AND SIZE FORECASTS, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO OR BAJA CALIFORNIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 12.8N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 13.8N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 15.0N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 16.4N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 18.1N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 21.3N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 23.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 290236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
900 PM CST WED MAY 28 2025

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 104.9W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15
KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 290234
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 104.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.4N 108.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.1N 108.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.3N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 108.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 282033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
300 PM CST Wed May 28 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 104.7W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 104.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northwest to north-northwest motion should continue for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mora


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 282033
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
300 PM CST WED MAY 28 2025

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
SOME BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM NOW
HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THUS, THE SYSTEM IS NOW
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE FIRST OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SEASON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A
T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION IS NORTHWEST AT 320/8 KT, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS MOTION GIVEN THE RECENT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER FORMATION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND SHEAR. AFTER
48 H THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO ENTER A FAIRLY HARSH ENVIRONMENT WITH
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING
WIND SHEAR WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE LATEST MODEL
SIMULATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
COLLAPSE BY SATURDAY, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW AND DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 11.9N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 12.9N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 13.9N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 15.2N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 16.7N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 20.1N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 23.1N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/MORA=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 282032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
2100 UTC WED MAY 28 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 104.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 104.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 104.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.9N 105.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.9N 107.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.2N 108.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.1N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.1N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 104.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/MORA=