Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for BARBARA-25
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 110403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.06.2025

TROPICAL STORM COSME ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 115.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.06.2025 16.1N 115.0W WEAK
12UTC 11.06.2025 16.6N 114.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.06.2025 17.5N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 108.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.06.2025 21.1N 108.0W WEAK
12UTC 11.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.0N 106.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.06.2025 15.0N 106.5W WEAK
00UTC 15.06.2025 15.9N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.06.2025 16.6N 110.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2025 17.1N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2025 17.2N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110403


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 110403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.06.2025

TROPICAL STORM COSME ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 115.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.06.2025 0 16.1N 115.0W 1004 41
1200UTC 11.06.2025 12 16.6N 114.3W 1007 33
0000UTC 12.06.2025 24 17.5N 113.2W 1008 22
1200UTC 12.06.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 108.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.06.2025 0 21.1N 108.0W 1008 28
1200UTC 11.06.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 18.5N 100.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.06.2025 0 18.5N 100.8W 1004 27
1200UTC 11.06.2025 12 17.6N 102.0W 1009 26
0000UTC 12.06.2025 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.0N 106.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.06.2025 84 15.0N 106.5W 1005 29
0000UTC 15.06.2025 96 15.9N 107.8W 1005 29
1200UTC 15.06.2025 108 16.6N 110.1W 1006 29
0000UTC 16.06.2025 120 17.1N 112.5W 1007 23
1200UTC 16.06.2025 132 17.2N 114.7W 1009 19
0000UTC 17.06.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110403


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 21.0N 108.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 108.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.0N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 107.9W.
11JUN25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
854 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS
1007 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 4 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 110232
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Earlier today, the mid-level circulation of Barbara was sheared off
to the southwest. As a result, all that remains of the system is a
weak low-level swirl as evidenced by an AMSR-E microwave image from
a few hours ago. The system lacks sufficient deep convection to
qualify as a tropical cyclone, and this will be the last advisory
on Barbara. Assuming a steady spin down of the circulation, the
current intensity is set at 25 kt.

The remnant low is drifting northward at about 010/4 kt. This
general motion should continue into Wednesday and until the system
dissipates.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 21.2N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 11/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 110231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

...BARBARA HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 108.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Barbara was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and the system is
expected to dissipate in a day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 110231
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 108.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 108.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 108.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.7N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 108.0W.
10JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 871
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 102037
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

This afternoon's satellite presentation shows Barbara quickly
spinning down. Deep convection associated with the cyclone has
diminished considerably during the past few hours and has revealed
an exposed surface circulation well to the northeast of a
mid-level center. The initial intensity is once again lowered, to
35 kt, and is based on a blend of the various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates.

Based on current convective trends and the global models, Barbara
should become a remnant low later tonight while it continues moving
over cooler waters and into a harsh atmospheric environment.

Barbara has been moving to the right of track within the peripheral
steering flow of the low- to mid-level high anchored over central
Mexico. Consequently, the initial motion is estimated to be
northward or 010/7 kt. Barbara should continue this general motion
through dissipation on Wednesday. The official track forecast
is adjusted to the right of the previous advisory and lies close to
the ECMWF and TVCE consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 20.9N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 21.7N 107.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Mora/Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 102034
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

...BARBARA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 108.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 108.1 West. Barbara is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is
expected to become a remnant low tonight and dissipate on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost
portions of Baja California Sur through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Mora/Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 102032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.7N 107.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 108.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 108.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 108.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.8N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.3N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 108.9W.
10JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 906
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (COSME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 101452
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Conventional satellite imagery and a recent microwave overpass
indicate that Barbara's surface circulation has become exposed to
the north of the convective mass. Subsequently, northerly shear
appears to be undercutting the outflow aloft. A burst of cold
cloud tops of -76 C developed just south of the center overnight.
Recent images, however, show the cloud tops have warmed
significantly while the cyclone traverses over a sharp temperature
gradient of SSTs less than 24 C. The subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates range from 40 to 65 kt, and as a
compromise, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this
advisory.

Further weakening is expected through the period as the system
continues to move over cooler water and into a more stable and dry
surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast shows
Barbara degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hr and dissipating by
Wednesday night. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the global
models and the IVCN intensity consensus model, and is essentially
an update of the previous forecast.

Based on the aforementioned microwave pass, Barbara has been moving
a little to the right and a bit faster than the previous forecast,
and is now moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Barbara should
continue moving toward the northwest through dissipation on
Wednesday. The official track forecast lies between the skilled HCCA
and TVCE consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 101447
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Conventional satellite imagery and a recent microwave overpass
indicate that Barbara's surface circulation has become exposed to
the north of the convective mass. Subsequently, northerly shear
appears to be undercutting the outflow aloft. A burst of cold
cloud tops of -76 C developed just south of the center overnight.
Recent images, however, show the cloud tops have warmed
significantly while the cyclone traverses over a sharp temperature
gradient of SSTs less than 24 C. The subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates range from 40 to 65 kt, and as a
compromise, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this
advisory.

Further weakening is expected through the period as the system
continues to move over cooler water and into a more stable and dry
surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast shows
Barbara degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hr and dissipating by
Wednesday night. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the global
models and the IVCN intensity consensus model, and is essentially
an update of the previous forecast.

Based on the aforementioned microwave pass, Barbara has been moving
a little to the right and a bit faster than the previous forecast,
and is now moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Barbara should
continue moving toward the northwest through dissipation on
Wednesday. The official track forecast lies between the skilled HCCA
and TVCE consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 101444
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 101438
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

...BARBARA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER OFFSHORE OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 108.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.7 West. Barbara is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is
expected to become a remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate by
Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost
portions of Baja California Sur through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 101436
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.8N 107.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 107.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.1N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.9N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 108.2W.
10JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 973
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (COSME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 100847
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Barbara has lost a significant portion of its convection over the
past 12 hours or so. The latest current intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB are still in the 55-65 kt range, but the latest
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 45-55 kt
range. Based on the degraded convective appearance on geostationary
satellite imagery and the latest intensity estimates, the initial
intensity is set to 50 kt.

Barbara has been moving toward the northwest a little slower than
before, or 310/7 kt. Barbara is forecast to continue moving
generally toward the northwest as it is steered by weak ridging to
its north and Tropical Storm Cosme, located to its southwest. Only
very minor adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track
forecast, which lies near the various consensus models.

The storm already has crossed the 26C isotherm and will continue
moving over progressively colder water over the next day. The cold
water will cause Barbara to continue weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous
official forecast, and is near the latest intensity model consensus.
The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products both show the
cyclone losing its convection entirely by about 24 hours, with
dissipation in 36 hours. The NHC forecast follows the scenario
depicted by those models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 19.1N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 100847
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

...BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 108.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.1 West. Barbara is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is
expected to dissipate by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost
portions of Baja California through today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 100846
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 108.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 100359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.06.2025

TROPICAL STORM COSME ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 114.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.06.2025 15.0N 114.4W MODERATE
12UTC 10.06.2025 15.5N 115.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.06.2025 16.2N 115.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.06.2025 16.6N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.06.2025 17.3N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 107.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.06.2025 18.5N 107.7W MODERATE
12UTC 10.06.2025 19.6N 108.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.06.2025 21.3N 109.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.1N 102.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.06.2025 13.9N 103.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.06.2025 14.3N 104.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.06.2025 15.2N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.06.2025 16.2N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2025 16.9N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2025 17.5N 113.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2025 17.4N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 9.9N 87.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.06.2025 9.9N 87.6W WEAK
00UTC 15.06.2025 9.6N 89.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.06.2025 9.0N 90.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2025 9.0N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2025 9.0N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2025 9.7N 95.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100359


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 100359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.06.2025

TROPICAL STORM COSME ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 114.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.06.2025 0 15.0N 114.4W 995 46
1200UTC 10.06.2025 12 15.5N 115.1W 1000 44
0000UTC 11.06.2025 24 16.2N 115.2W 1005 40
1200UTC 11.06.2025 36 16.6N 113.9W 1008 28
0000UTC 12.06.2025 48 17.3N 112.5W 1008 22
1200UTC 12.06.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 107.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.06.2025 0 18.5N 107.7W 993 51
1200UTC 10.06.2025 12 19.6N 108.8W 1003 42
0000UTC 11.06.2025 24 21.3N 109.0W 1007 26
1200UTC 11.06.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.1N 102.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.06.2025 96 13.9N 103.6W 1003 30
1200UTC 14.06.2025 108 14.3N 104.8W 1003 30
0000UTC 15.06.2025 120 15.2N 107.2W 1002 33
1200UTC 15.06.2025 132 16.2N 109.2W 1002 33
0000UTC 16.06.2025 144 16.9N 111.1W 1003 26
1200UTC 16.06.2025 156 17.5N 113.6W 1005 27
0000UTC 17.06.2025 168 17.4N 115.8W 1005 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 9.9N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.06.2025 108 9.9N 87.6W 1010 26
0000UTC 15.06.2025 120 9.6N 89.1W 1009 24
1200UTC 15.06.2025 132 9.0N 90.7W 1009 21
0000UTC 16.06.2025 144 9.0N 92.6W 1008 25
1200UTC 16.06.2025 156 9.0N 93.8W 1008 22
0000UTC 17.06.2025 168 9.7N 95.0W 1007 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100359


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 02E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.4N 107.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 107.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.8N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.7N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.2N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.3N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 108.0W.
10JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1002
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 100232
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Barbara has been gradually decreasing in organization since earlier
today. Deep convection is rather fragmented with limited banding
features. Although thunderstorm activity could temporarily
increase tonight after the diurnal minimum, overall the system
appears to be on a weakening trend. All of the objective intensity
estimates are now below hurricane strength. A blend of subjective
Dvorak T- and C.I. numbers from TAFB gives about a 60-kt intensity
estimate, which is used for this advisory.

The cyclone continues on a northwestward track with a motion of
around 310/10 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of Barbara
should maintain this northwestward motion for a while, albeit with
some decrease in forward speed. In 36-48 hours, the system should
become a remnant low and turn westward following the shallow-layer
flow. The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the
divergent track guidance and a little to the left of the previous
NHC track. This is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The storm is crossing a gradient of sea surface temperatures and
headed for cooler waters and a drier, more stable environment.
Therefore continued weakening is likely, and Barbara is expected to
become a remnant low in 36 hours. The official forecast
is below the LGEM guidance but above the dynamical models, which
suggest that the system will dissipate sooner than indicated here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 18.7N 107.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 20.7N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 100231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
800 PM MST MON JUN 09 2025

...BARBARA NOW A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 107.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY BARBARA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 100231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.8W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.8W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.7N 110.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.3N 111.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 107.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 106.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 106.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.2N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.5N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.4N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.8N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 107.0W.
09JUN25. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1056 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (COSME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 092032
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Since the last advisory Barbara has become a little less organized.
Latest GOES satellite imagery depicts the system starting to ingest
some drier air which has caused fragmented banding. However, a
central dense overcast has remained over the tiny inner core. The
satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly from the
previous advisory ranging from 50 to 65 kt. Using these estimates,
the intensity is held at 65 kt, although this may be generous.

A mid-level ridge located over Mexico should continue to steer the
system northwestward over the next couple of days. As Barbara begins
to weaken into a shallow vortex and slow down, it will be steered by
the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous one, and close to the simple and corrected consensus.

Barbara likely has peaked as a short-lived hurricane. The
environmental conditions will becoming increasingly hostile along
the forecast track with the storm crossing into cooler SSTs and into
a drier, more stable air mass. This will cause the system to
steadily weaken, lose convective organization, and become post
tropical by 36 h. The latest NHC forecast shows the system opening
into a trough by 60 h and dissipating.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 18.2N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 19.2N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 21.4N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Mora/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 092031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Barbara Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

...BARBARA HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 106.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barbara was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 106.8 West. Barbara is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. A weakening trend should begin tonight, and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern
Mexico tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Mora/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 092031
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.8W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.8W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.2N 107.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.4N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER MORA/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.06.2025

TROPICAL STORM COSME ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 113.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.06.2025 0 14.2N 113.4W 998 38
0000UTC 10.06.2025 12 14.9N 114.8W 999 41
1200UTC 10.06.2025 24 15.6N 115.4W 1005 37
0000UTC 11.06.2025 36 16.4N 115.3W 1007 33
1200UTC 11.06.2025 48 16.7N 113.7W 1009 25
0000UTC 12.06.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 106.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.06.2025 0 17.1N 106.1W 995 49
0000UTC 10.06.2025 12 18.8N 107.8W 998 47
1200UTC 10.06.2025 24 20.7N 108.6W 1009 29
0000UTC 11.06.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.2N 88.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.06.2025 108 10.2N 88.1W 1007 30
1200UTC 14.06.2025 120 11.4N 89.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 15.06.2025 132 11.2N 91.6W 1006 34
1200UTC 15.06.2025 144 11.0N 93.3W 1006 30
0000UTC 16.06.2025 156 10.8N 94.6W 1005 30
1200UTC 16.06.2025 168 10.8N 96.3W 1005 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.1N 103.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.06.2025 108 13.1N 103.9W 1005 25
1200UTC 14.06.2025 120 13.8N 104.7W 1005 25
0000UTC 15.06.2025 132 14.7N 106.5W 1004 28
1200UTC 15.06.2025 144 15.0N 108.9W 1004 31
0000UTC 16.06.2025 156 16.0N 111.1W 1004 27
1200UTC 16.06.2025 168 16.6N 112.8W 1006 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091558


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.06.2025

TROPICAL STORM COSME ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 113.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.06.2025 14.2N 113.4W MODERATE
00UTC 10.06.2025 14.9N 114.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.06.2025 15.6N 115.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.06.2025 16.4N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.06.2025 16.7N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 106.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.06.2025 17.1N 106.1W MODERATE
00UTC 10.06.2025 18.8N 107.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.06.2025 20.7N 108.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.2N 88.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.06.2025 10.2N 88.1W WEAK
12UTC 14.06.2025 11.4N 89.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.06.2025 11.2N 91.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.06.2025 11.0N 93.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2025 10.8N 94.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2025 10.8N 96.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.1N 103.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.06.2025 13.1N 103.9W WEAK
12UTC 14.06.2025 13.8N 104.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.06.2025 14.7N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.06.2025 15.0N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2025 16.0N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2025 16.6N 112.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091558


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 105.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 105.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.4N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.6N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.8N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.2N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 106.3W.
09JUN25. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1108 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (COSME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 091437
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Barbara has become better organized as depicted in an earlier AMSR2
microwave pass, which shows the low-level center tucked under a
large central dense overcast. The microwave imagery also indicates
that a partial eyewall has formed, although it was open on the
northern side. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB was
T4.0/65 kt, and the objective satellite intensity aids from UW-CIMSS
range from 55-65 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial
intensity is increased to 65 kt for this advisory. This makes
Barbara the first hurricane of the 2025 east Pacific hurricane
season.

The storm is estimated to be moving more northwestward at 310/9 kt.
Barbara continues to be steered by a mid-level ridge located over
Mexico and it should continue to move northwestward over the next
few days. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to be on opposite sides
of the guidance envelope, and this is mainly due to differences in
when Barbara weakens and becomes steered by the low-level wind flow.
The latest NHC track forecast was shifted slightly to the right,
closer to the simple and corrected consensus.

Barbara is likely near its peak intensity, as it only has about 6-12
more hours of a favorable environment. Along the forecast track, the
system will be crossing over increasingly cooler sea surface
temperatures overnight. Around the same time, the mid-level relative
humidity values will begin to drop. This will cause the system to
steadily weaken and lose convective organization. The storm is now
forecast to become post-tropical in 36 h, and dissipate into an open
trough by 60 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 17.6N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 19.6N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 091437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Barbara Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

...BARBARA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 106.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barbara was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.1 West. Barbara is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible today, but
a weakening trend is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern
Mexico during the next day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 091436
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
1500 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.6N 108.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 105.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 105.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.6N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.8N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.8N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.3N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.5N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 106.1W.
09JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1150
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091600Z, 092200Z, 100400Z AND 101000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (COSME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 090846
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Barbara has become a bit better organized over the past 6 hours
with a large central dense overcast and an increasing area of
cloud tops in the -75C to -85C range. The latest subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 46-68 kt.
Based on the improved banding and cold cloud tops, as well as the
persistence of this organization, the initial intensity is
increased to 60 kt for this advisory.

There is some uncertainty in the initial position since there have
been no recent available microwave passes, but the best motion
estimate is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The
global models show a strong 500 mb ridge to the north of Barbara,
which should help maintain Barbara on a general path toward the
west-northwest for the next few days. The GFS model continues
to be the fastest and farthest left model. The GFS appears to
have a more realistic solution compared to the ECMWF, and was
stronger at the initialization time. The new NHC forecast is
slightly faster and a bit to the left of the previous official
forecast and is in fairly good agreement with an average of the
simple and corrected consensus models.

Barbara only has about 12 more hours to strengthen before it starts
moving into cooler waters. This should be enough time for Barbara
to strengthen to a hurricane. The cooler water should cause
weakening to begin tonight or on Tuesday. The dynamical hurricane
models and global models all show Barbara weakening below tropical
storm strength by 48 hours, and the cyclone is likely to lose its
convection and become a remnant low around that time. The new NHC
forecast shows a faster weakening and quicker dissipation than the
previous official forecast since the dynamical guidance is now in
good agreement on this scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.9N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z 20.5N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 090846
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
200 AM MST MON JUN 09 2025

...BARBARA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 106.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS OF BARBARA MAY BRING TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO THROUGH TODAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY BARBARA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 090842
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 111.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 106.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 104.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 104.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.2N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.3N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.3N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.2N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.5N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.5N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 105.0W.
09JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1203
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 090235
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
900 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

After a marked decrease in deep convection a few hours ago,
thunderstorm activity is now increasing near the center of the
storm, with a comma-shaped pattern evolving. A recent GPM
microwave overpass suggested that the inner core structure is
becoming a little better defined. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates are 55 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and this is used for
the advisory intensity. This is also in agreement with a blend of
the various objective intensity estimates based on both
geostationary and limited microwave imagery.

Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the overall
motion appears to be west-northwestward at around 300/9 kt.
Though some of the track guidance suggests a more northwestward
motion during the next few days, there should be enough of a ridge
to the north of Barbara to prevent a significant northward turn
during the next 48-72 hours. In fact the GFS model, which appears
to have the most realistic and about the strongest initialization
for the system, is on the left side of the guidance envelope. The
official forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous one
based on the model consensus, but leans toward the GFS solution. By
72-96 hours, Barbara should be reduced to a remnant low and move
generally westward following the low-level flow.

Barbara is currently over warm waters within an environment of
low vertical wind shear and high atmospheric moisture. These
factors should result in the cyclone strengthening into a hurricane
very soon, and the NHC prediction is above almost all of the
guidance. In a day or so, cooler SSTs are expected to cause a
weakening trend to begin. The model guidance is in good agreement
on Barbara weakening into a tropical depression in 60-72 hours, and
this is also shown in the official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.5N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.2N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 19.3N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.2N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 20.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 20.5N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 20.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 090235
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
900 PM CST SUN JUN 08 2025

...BARBARA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100
KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS OF BARBARA MAY BRING TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY BARBARA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 090234
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.9W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.9W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.2N 106.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.3N 108.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.2N 109.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 111.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.5N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 082032
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Barbara this
afternoon, with cold cloud tops near -75 C. However, a dry slot in
the eastern semi-circle looks to have slightly disrupted the
convective organization. Subjective and objective intensity
estimates range from 45-55 kt this cycle. Using a blend of satellite
estimates and the latest imagery the intensity is held at 50 kt for
this advisory.

Barbara is currently within a favorable environment with warm SSTs
and low vertical wind shear. Strengthening is forecast over the next
day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane overnight.
After 24 h, the system will be moving over cooler sea surface
temperatures below 26C and into a drier mid-level environment. These
factors will cause the storm to weaken and eventually struggle to
produce convection. Latest model IR simulated satellite imagery
shows the system losing convection by 72 h. This suggests that
it will become a a post-tropical remnant low by that time and
likely dissipate by day 5 although that could occur sooner than
currently forecast.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward at 295/10, steered by
a mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this motion should continue over
the next couple of days. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly
rightward and lies just left of the the simple and corrected
consensus aids. Given the forecast track and wind radii,
tropical-storm-force winds are not expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the track forecast becomes
more complicated given the potential interaction between Barbara and
Cosme. The GFS and ECMWF are on opposite ends of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.7N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.8N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 19.7N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 19.4N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 082031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

...BARBARA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 104.1W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 104.1 West. Barbara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn
toward the west at a slower forward speed is anticipated on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barbara is
forecast to become a hurricane overnight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Outer bands of Barbara may bring total rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches to coastal portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Monday. This
rainfall may lead to localized areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern
Mexico.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 082031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 104.1W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 104.1W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.7N 105.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 111.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.4N 112.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 104.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 081559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 110.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.06.2025 12.2N 110.2W WEAK
00UTC 09.06.2025 13.3N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.06.2025 14.2N 112.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.06.2025 15.2N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.06.2025 16.1N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.06.2025 16.2N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 103.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.06.2025 15.4N 103.0W WEAK
00UTC 09.06.2025 16.1N 104.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.06.2025 17.2N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.06.2025 18.9N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.06.2025 20.1N 107.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081559


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 081600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 110.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.06.2025 0 12.2N 110.2W 1006 24
0000UTC 09.06.2025 12 13.3N 111.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 09.06.2025 24 14.2N 112.6W 1007 25
0000UTC 10.06.2025 36 15.2N 114.2W 1007 30
1200UTC 10.06.2025 48 16.1N 114.2W 1010 23
0000UTC 11.06.2025 60 16.2N 113.2W 1010 21
1200UTC 11.06.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 103.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.06.2025 0 15.4N 103.0W 1006 28
0000UTC 09.06.2025 12 16.1N 104.8W 1005 27
1200UTC 09.06.2025 24 17.2N 106.6W 1005 35
0000UTC 10.06.2025 36 18.9N 108.0W 1006 32
1200UTC 10.06.2025 48 20.1N 107.6W 1011 21
0000UTC 11.06.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081559


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 081514
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

Barbara continues to become better organized this morning with deep
convection bursting near the low-level center. Earlier AMSR2
microwave imagery depicts improved curved banding with an inner core
in the formative stage. This structure has led to an improved
satellite depiction and intensification. Subjective and objective
intensity estimates have continued to increase this morning, using a
blend of these estimates the intensity is set to 50 kt for this
advisory.

The system is currently within a favorable environment with warm sea
surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Further
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and this could
occur rather quickly given the small inner core of Barbara. The
latest NHC intensity forecast has increased slightly form the
previous one and shows Barbara becoming a hurricane in 12 hrs.
However, there are some intensity aids that are a little higher than
the NHC forecast, including some explicitly forecasting Rapid
Intensification (RI). RI is possible, and this is something we will
have to monitor over the succeeding forecasts. After 24-36 hrs, the
system will be moving over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level
environment. These factors will cause the system to weaken and
eventually struggle to produce convection. Global model infrared
simulated satellite images depicts the system losing convection by
72 h. By day 4, the system should degenerate into a remnant low, and
dissipate by day 5 as it interacts with the circulation of TD
Three-E.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward (295/10 kt) on the south side
of a mid-level ridge, and this motion should continue over the next
couple of days. The NHC forecast is near the previous one and
lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given the
forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds are not
expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the
track forecast becomes more complicated given the potential for
binary interaction between Barbara and TD Three-E. Because of this,
the long-range track forecast could be subject to large future
adjustments depending on the evolution of TD Three-E.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.7N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.4N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 18.6N 107.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 19.4N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 12/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 102.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 102.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.4N 104.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.6N 106.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.6N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.4N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.5N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.5N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.1N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 103.3W.
08JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1301
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 081436
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
900 AM CST SUN JUN 08 2025

...BARBARA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 103.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, AND BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY BARBARA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 081436
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.1W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.1W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.6N 107.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.4N 109.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 111.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 112.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072152ZJUN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 102.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 102.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.8N 103.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.0N 105.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.3N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.1N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.6N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.8N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.5N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 102.6W.
08JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1344
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 072200).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 080840
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
300 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located offshore of
southwestern Mexico. A small, persistent area of deep convection has
been observed in satellite images tonight, and recent scatterometer
data confirm this has led to the formation of a well-defined, closed
low-level circulation. Therefore, the NHC is starting advisories on
Tropical Storm Barbara with an initial intensity of 40 kt based on
the earlier scatterometer winds.

Barbara is currently within a moist and relatively low shear
environment over warm waters. So, strengthening is expected during
the next day or so, and this could occur quickly given recent
satellite trends and the small size of the storm. The official NHC
forecast shows Barbara becoming a hurricane in 24 h, which is
supported by HAFS-A/B and the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA). The
window for strengthening is brief, as Barbara is forecast to move
over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment by 48 h.
This should disrupt the convective structure of the storm and result
in weakening. By day 5, the remnant low of Barbara is forecast to
either dissipate or become absorbed by the circulation of EP91.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward (295/10 kt) on the south side
of a mid-level ridge, and this motion should continue over the next
couple of days. For this time period, the NHC forecast generally
lies near or between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given
the forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds
are not expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By
Tuesday, the track forecast becomes more complicated given the
potential for binary interaction between Barbara and another
disturbance (EP91) with a high chance of formation. Because of this,
the long-range track forecast could be subject to larger future
adjustments depending on the evolution of EP91.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.2N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 17.0N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 18.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 19.1N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 19.8N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 080838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
300 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

...TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 102.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.4 West. Barbara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn
toward the west at a slower forward speed is anticipated on Tuesday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so, and Barbara is forecast to
become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts
up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This
rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 080836
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0900 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 105.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.3N 107.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.1N 108.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 112.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 102.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=