Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for COSME-25 Off-shore from 08 Jun 2025 15:00 UTC to 11 Jun 2025 15:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for COSME-25

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

11/06 15:33 WTPN32PHNC111600

11/06 14:37 WTPZ43KNHC111435

11/06 14:36 WTPZ33KNHC111434

11/06 14:35 WTPZ23KNHC111434

11/06 10:26 WTPN32PHNC111000

11/06 08:35 WTPZ43KNHC110833

11/06 08:33 WTPZ33KNHC110832

11/06 08:33 WTPZ23KNHC110832

11/06 04:00 WTPN32PHNC110400

11/06 02:33 WTPZ43KNHC110231

11/06 02:32 WTPZ33KNHC110230

11/06 02:31 WTPZ23KNHC110230

10/06 22:03 WTPN32PHNC102200

10/06 20:36 WTPZ43KNHC102034

10/06 20:34 WTPZ33KNHC102033

10/06 20:34 WTPZ23KNHC102033

10/06 15:27 WTPN32PHNC101600

10/06 14:36 WTPZ43KNHC101434

10/06 14:35 WTPZ33KNHC101433

10/06 14:33 WTPZ23KNHC101432

10/06 10:51 WTPN32PHNC101000

10/06 08:52 WTPZ43KNHC100850

10/06 08:50 WTPZ33KNHC100849

10/06 08:49 WTPZ23KNHC100849

10/06 03:23 WTPN32PHNC100400

10/06 02:33 WTPZ43KNHC100231

10/06 02:32 WTPZ33KNHC100230

10/06 02:31 WTPZ23KNHC100230

09/06 21:45 WTPN32PHNC092200

09/06 20:33 WTPZ43KNHC092031

09/06 20:32 WTPZ33KNHC092030

09/06 20:30 WTPZ23KNHC092030

09/06 15:23 WTPN32PHNC091600

09/06 14:39 WTPZ43KNHC091437

09/06 14:38 WTPZ33KNHC091436

09/06 14:37 WTPZ23KNHC091436

09/06 09:24 WTPN32PHNC091000

09/06 08:48 WTPZ43KNHC090846

09/06 08:47 WTPZ33KNHC090845

09/06 08:45 WTPZ23KNHC090845

09/06 02:38 WTPZ43KNHC090235

09/06 02:36 WTPZ33KNHC090235

09/06 02:34 WTPZ23KNHC090234

08/06 20:32 WTPZ43KNHC082030

08/06 20:31 WTPZ33KNHC082030

08/06 20:30 WTPZ23KNHC082030

08/06 14:36 WTPZ43KNHC081434

08/06 14:35 WTPZ33KNHC081433

08/06 14:33 WTPZ23KNHC081433

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 113.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 113.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.0N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 17.8N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 113.8W.
11JUN25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1005 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS
1007 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 111435
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025

Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken
their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection
for more than 12 hours, with only a swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds evident on satellite imagery. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 30 kt. Given the hostile environment and ongoing
lack of convection, Cosme is not expected to redevelop, and this
will be the final advisory.

The low is now moving toward the east-northeast at about 070/6 kt.
Global model guidance indicates a gradual turn toward the
north-northeast later today, followed by a turn to the north on
Thursday, as the system steadily spins down and dissipates over the
next day or so.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.4N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 12/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Gibbs

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 111434
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025

...COSME HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 113.7W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme
was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 113.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected
late today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast, and
the remnant low is forecast to dissipate in a day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Gibbs

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 111434
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 113.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 113.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 113.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/GIBBS=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 114.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 114.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.7N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.5N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.4N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 114.5W.
11JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1010
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
02E (BARBARA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC).//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 110833
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025

Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken
their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection
for several hours and is expected to become a remnant low later this
morning. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease
accordingly. A 11/0442 UTC ASCAT pass showed winds in the 35-40 kt
range in the southern semicircle. Assuming additional weakening
after that time, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. After
transitioning to a remnant low later this morning, Cosme is expected
to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday.

The storm is now moving slowly toward the northeast. A gradual turn
to the north-northeast with some acceleration is expected later
today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday. Only a slight
eastward adjustment was made to the previous NHC track forecast,
with no significant changes to the intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 16.2N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 110832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
200 AM MST WED JUN 11 2025

...COSME FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 114.5W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED LATE
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING. THE REMNANT LOW
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 110832
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.5W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 15NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.5W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 114.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 115.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 115.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.4N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.3N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.4N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 114.9W.
11JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1020
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 5 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BARBARA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31
PHNC).//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 110231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Cosme is quickly on the path to becoming a remnant low. Satellite
images show that the low- and mid-level centers have separated,
with the low-level circulation well northeast of the mid-level one
now. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to fall, and the initial
intensity is set to 40 kt. Further weakening is anticipated due to
persistent shear, cool waters and dry air entrainment. Cosme
should transition into a remnant low on Wednesday morning and
totally dissipate in a couple of days.

The storm has taken its long-awaited turn, now moving slowly to the
north-northeast. Cosme, or what's left of it, should move a
little faster to the north late Wednesday and then dissipate into a
trough of low pressure due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
No significant changes were made to the track or intensity
forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 16.4N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 17.3N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 110230
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
800 PM MST TUE JUN 10 2025

...COSME FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 114.9W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND COSME IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 110230
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 114.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 114.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.4N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.3N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 115.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 115.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.2N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.1N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.2N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.1N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 115.0W.
10JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1026
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 102034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Although Cosme's low-level center is obscured by high-level cirrus,
it does appear to be displaced a bit to the northeast of the
remaining deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have
continued to decrease, with objective numbers ranging between 35-45
kt, and subjective Dvorak CI numbers between 45-55 kt. The advisory
intensity is set at 45 kt based on a blend of these numbers. An
earlier ASCAT pass showed winds just over 40 kt in the southwestern
quadrant, but the southeastern quadrant, where there could be
stronger winds, was not sampled.

ASCAT and recent visible imagery suggest Cosme's center is a little
west of where it was placed this morning. Still, the storm has
turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of 330/3 kt.
Cosme is expected to turn northward and then northeastward and
speed up a bit through Wednesday, before turning back to the
north-northwest on Thursday. This track will take Cosme over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable
environment. Combined with moderate-to-strong northeasterly shear,
these conditions should cause quick weakening, and GFS- and
ECWMF-based simulated satellite images suggest that Cosme will lose
its deep convection overnight. As a result, the NHC official
forecast shows Cosme becoming a remnant low within 24 hours, with
dissipation now expected by 60 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 102033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2025

...COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 115.1W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND COSME IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 102033
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 114.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 114.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.8N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.6N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.8N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.8N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.6N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 114.6W.
10JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1047
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 101434
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Moderate northeasterly shear appears to be displacing Cosme's deep
convection to the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have begun
to decrease, and a blend of these data support an initial intensity
of 55 kt. The shear affecting the cyclone is not expected to abate
during the next 24 hours, and with Cosme already seeming to be
ingesting more stable air, continued weakening is likely over the
next day or two. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the
GFS, ECMWF, and high-resolution hurricane models all suggest that
Cosme's deep convection could dissipate by tonight, and the NHC
forecast therefore shows the cyclone becoming post-tropical in 24
hours. After that time, continued weakening is forecast while the
remnant low moves over colder waters, and dissipation is expected
by Friday.

Due to its position to the southwest of Barbara, Cosme's motion has
slowed down considerably, and it is estimated to be moving toward
the northwest (325 deg) at about 3 kt. While the interaction with
Barbara continues, Cosme is expected to turn toward the north and
north-northeast and accelerate a bit over the next day or two. The
new NHC forecast is not too different from the previous prediction,
and perhaps shows more of a bend back to the northwest around 60
hours, following the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg/Gibbs

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 101433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

...COSME BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 114.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 114.6 West. Cosme is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A very slow turn
toward the north and north-northeast is expected today, followed by
a faster motion toward the northeast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Cosme is
expected to become post-tropical by Wednesday. The remnant low is
forecast to dissipate by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Gibbs

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 101432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.6W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.6W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 008 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 114.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 114.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.5N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.2N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.4N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.7N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.8N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 114.5W.
10JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1060
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 100850
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

The convective appearance of Cosme has changed little since the
previous advisory. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 54-59 kt. The initial
intensity is held at 60 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of
the intensity estimates.

Cosme continues to move very slowly toward the northwest, with
motion estimated at 300/4 kt. A slow motion, perhaps more toward
the north, should continue for at least the next 12 h since the
overall steering currents are weak, due to Barbara's current
position in relation to Cosme. However, as Barbara weakens, Cosme
will accelerate north-northeastward in response to ridging located
to the northwest of the cyclone. Very little change has been made
to the NHC track forecast, and the latest forecast is near the
various consensus models.

Cosme is forecast to remain in favorable enough conditions for the
next 24 h such that the cyclone might be able to maintain its
intensity or only weaken very slowly. However, after that time, as
Cosme gains latitude, it will encounter cooler water and drier air.
Cosme is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical on
Wednesday, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite
imagery products. The post-tropical low is then forecast to
gradually weaken and dissipate by 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and is near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 15.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 100849
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
200 AM MST TUE JUN 10 2025

...COSME HOLDING STEADY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 114.5W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. COSME IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 100849
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 114.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 15.0N 114.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 114.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.5N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.9N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.9N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.2N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.3N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 114.2W.
10JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1075
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 100231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Cosme remains at the threshold of hurricane strength. Convection
continues to be potent south and east of the center, though it is
weak on the northwestern side. Unfortunately there haven't been any
recent microwave passes to assess the inner-core structure. Since
the latest blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates remains near 60 kt, that value will be kept as the
initial wind speed.

Cosme is moving along a thermal ridge in the SSTs, and it still
could become a hurricane overnight before reaching less favorable
conditions tomorrow morning. Steady or rapid weakening is probable
by late Tuesday due to a combination of decreasing SSTs and
intrusions of dry/stable air. The tropical cyclone should lose all
convection early on Wednesday and become a remnant low between 36
and 48 h. No significant changes were made on this advisory to the
intensity forecast.

The storm has slowed down, only moving northwestward at 3 kt, and
this general motion should continue through tonight. After that
time, a turn to the north-northeast is expected as Cosme moves
toward a weakness left behind by Hurricane Barbara to its northeast.
The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one,
near or a smidge left of the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 15.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 15.5N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.9N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 18.2N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 19.3N 113.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 100230
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
800 PM MST MON JUN 09 2025

...COSME COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
BEGINS LATER ON TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 114.2W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. COSME COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING BEGINS LATER ON TUESDAY. COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 100230
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.2W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.2W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.9N 114.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.2N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.3N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 114.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 113.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 113.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.8N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.6N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.8N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.2N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.1N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 114.0W.
09JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1084
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 092031
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Cosme continues to intensify and is nearing hurricane strength.
Visible satellite images show that the convective bands have
consolidated near the center, and there is some evidence of a
partial inner core. A blend of the latest objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates support increasing the initial
intensity to 60 kt. A partial ASCAT pass indicates that the
wind field of Cosme is quite compact, and the initial wind radii
have been updated based on that data.

Some additional strengthening is possible in the short term, and
Cosme could become a hurricane tonight while it remains in
generally conducive environmental conditions. However, the
combination of decreasing SSTs and intrusions of dry/stable air
should end the strengthening trend by early Tuesday and then cause a
quick weakening. Simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF
models show deep convection vanishing by Wednesday, and based on
that guidance, the transition to a remnant low has been moved up to
48 hours. Dissipation is likely to occur in 3 to 4 days.

The storm is moving northwestward at 8 kt, and this general motion
should continue through tonight. After that time, a turn to the
north or north-northeast is expected as Cosme moves toward a
weakness left behind by Hurricane Barbara to its northeast. The
NHC track forecast is in fair agreement with the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.0N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.3N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.8N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 16.6N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 17.8N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 12/0600Z 19.2N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 20.1N 113.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 092030
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

...COSME NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 113.9W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 113.9 West. Cosme is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the north with a decease in forward speed is expected by
early Tuesday, followed by a faster north-northeast motion late
Tuesday through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and
Cosme could become a hurricane tonight. Rapid weakening is expected
late Tuesday and Wednesday. Cosme will likely become a
post-tropical low in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 092030
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 113.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 113.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.3N 114.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 114.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.6N 113.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.8N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.2N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.1N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 113.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 113.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.8N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.2N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.8N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.0N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.5N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.6N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 113.3W.
09JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1121
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 091437
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Cosme continues to become better organized this morning, with a
recent 0936Z/GPM pass indicating a partially closed eyewall
structure. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB were both T3.5/55 kt. Meanwhile, the objective
satellite estimates range from 48 to 61 knots. Given the improved
structure noted in microwave imagery, along with a blend of the
objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity
for this advisory has been increased to 55 kt.

Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest at 6 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and a
slowing in forward speed is expected tonight, as Barbara erodes the
mid-level ridge to the north of Cosme. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast
Tuesday through Wednesday as Cosme is swept northward into the break
in the mid-level ridge created by Barbara. The latest track forecast
is very close to that of the previous advisory and is generally a
blend of the consensus guidance.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening
during the next 12 hours or so. Vertical wind shear is forecast to
decrease, while water temperatures hold around 27/28C, and deep
layer atmospheric moisture remains high. As a result, the official
forecast calls for Cosme to become a hurricane later today. Little
change in strength is then forecast tonight and Tuesday despite
Cosme remaining over warm water, as increasing vertical wind shear
and gradually decreasing deep-layer moisture should inhibit further
intensification. Beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday, a more rapid
weakening is forecast as the system moves over much cooler water,
with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.5N 113.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 17.0N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 19.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 091436
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

...COSME FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 113.3W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 113.3 West. Cosme is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
north with a decease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed
by a faster north-northeast motion Tuesday through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and
Cosme is expected to become a hurricane later today. Rapid weakening
is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 091436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
1500 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.0N 113.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.6N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 112.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 112.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.6N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.0N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.4N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.5N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.9N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.0N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 112.8W.
09JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1151
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091600Z, 092200Z, 100400Z AND 101000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 090846
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

The satellite presentation of Cosme has continued to gradually
improve since the previous advisory, with sustained deep convection
holding over the low-level center. A timely 09/0524Z ASCAT pass
helped with the initial intensity and 34 kt wind radii estimates,
with several wind barbs showing 40 to 45 knot winds. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45
knots and T2.5/35 knots respectively. Meanwhile, the objective
Dvorak satellite estimates range from 40 to 50 knots. The initial
intensity has been adjusted up to 45 knots with this advisory
package, in line with the most recent ASCAT pass.

Cosme is moving toward west-northwest at 8 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue during the next 24 hours to the south of a
mid-level ridge, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. Tonight
and Tuesday Barbara is forecast to erode the mid-level ridge to the
north of Cosme, resulting in a further slowing in motion and a shift
to the north. An increase in forward speed and a motion to the
north-northeast is expected Tuesday night, with Cosme forecast to
become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. The latest track
forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory and is
generally a blend of the consensus guidance.

Environmental conditions continue to look conducive for
strengthening of Cosme during the next 24 hours or so. Vertical wind
shear will lighten up some while the system passes over 27/28C water
with abundant deep layer moisture. The intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory, bringing Cosme close to hurricane strength
late today or tonight. Beyond 24 hours, vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase and mid-level moisture is forecast to decrease,
which should lead to a gradual weakening of Cosme. A more rapid
weakening is then expected by Wednesday as the system moves over
much cooler water, with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 15.0N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 16.5N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 19.0N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 090845
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

...COSME STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 112.8W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 112.8 West. Cosme is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected today and tonight with a slowing in forward
speed. A turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed
is forecast late Tuesday through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Cosme
is forecast to be near hurricane strength late today or tonight.
The system is then expected to weaken quickly late Tuesday
through Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 090845
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.6N 113.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.0N 114.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.5N 113.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.0N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 090235
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

Cosme is gradually improving in organization with deep convection
pulsing, albeit with the center on the northern edge of the
convection. A recent microwave pass did show a prominent curved
band especially in the southern semicircle of the storm. The
initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt for this advisory, between
the lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective values.

Conditions look conducive for strengthening for about the next 24
hours while Cosme moves within a fairly low shear and warm SST
environment. Thereafter, some increase in easterly shear is
possible, and the storm should move over a tight SST gradient into a
drier airmass. Cosme is forecast to respond to these conditions by
weakening quickly by midweek. The only change to the previous
forecast is a small reduction in the intensity forecast at 60 and 72
h, consistent with the latest model consensus. It would not be
surprising to see Cosme become a remnant low faster than shown
below.

The storm continues moving northwestward at 8 kt, and a
west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated during the next
day or so. After that time, Tropical Storm Barbara causes a
mid-level ridge to erode, and Cosme should respond by taking a
sharp turn to the northeast around Barbara. Model guidance has
shifted notably to the left this evening, suggesting a
little more separation of the tropical cyclones before they
interact. While the new forecast is adjusted to the west, this is
not a particularly confident longer-range forecast due to
the complexity of the interaction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 13.7N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 14.9N 114.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 15.3N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 090235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
800 PM MST SUN JUN 08 2025

...COSME POISED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 111.9W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. A SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
MID-WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
COSME IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 090234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 111.9W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 111.9W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.9N 114.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 082030
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in curved
bands on the western side of the circulation during the past
several hours. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed peak
winds in the 35-40 kt range, and based on that data, the depression
has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cosme with the initial
intensity set at 40 kt.

Cosme will likely continue to strengthen for the next day or two as
it remains in an environment of low to moderate wind shear, abundant
moisture, and over warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
peak of 60 kt at 24 and 36 hours, and it wouldn't be surprising if
Cosme becomes a hurricane during that time frame. By mid-week,
however, the storm is expected to move over progressively cooler
waters and into a drier airmass, which should cause the system to
begin weakening. Cosme is now forecast to become a remnant low in 3
days and dissipate in 4 days.

The storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt, and that general motion
is expected to continue during the next couple of days. After that
time, the interaction with Barbara will likely result in an initial
slow down and then turn to the northeast. There is a fair amount of
spread in the guidance due to the complexity of this interaction.
The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right of
the previous one to account for the initial motion/position and to
be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 13.3N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.0N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 14.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.1N 113.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 082030
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
200 PM MST SUN JUN 08 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM COSME...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 111.0W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A SLOW
DOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY MID-WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND
COSME IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 082030
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 111.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 111.0W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 111.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.7N 113.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 081434
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 AM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure
well southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico have shown
considerable improvement this morning. Well-organized curved bands
have been present during the last 6-12 hours with deep convection
building near the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB came in at 1.5/25 kt and
2.0/30 kt, respectively. Additionally, overnight satellite-derived
wind data showed 30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the low
pressure area. Given the improved convective organization and data
suggesting maximum sustained winds of 30 kt, Tropical Depression
Three-E has now formed with the initial intensity set at 30 kt.

The initial motion of Tropical Depression Three-E is set at 310/07
kt. This general motion is expected to continue today and tonight,
followed by a much more uncertain motion Monday through mid-week due
to the expected interaction with Tropical Storm Barbara. This
interaction will likely result in a decrease in forward speed and a
more northward to northeastward motion on Monday, followed by an
increase in forward speed and a shift back to the northwest by
Tuesday. The track forecast generally follows the consensus
guidance, which is in between the two extremes of the GFS and ECMWF
models.

Tropical Depression Three-E is forecast to remain in a low to
moderate vertical wind shear environment with warm sea surface
temperatures of 27 to 28C and abundant deep layer moisture during
the next couple days. This should allow for steady strengthening,
and the system will likely become a tropical storm later today. By
Monday night, the tropical cyclone will begin to move over much
cooler water below 26C, and this in combination with the interaction
with Barbara should result in rather rapid weakening, with the
system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday morning. The
intensity forecast is roughly a split of the statistical and
dynamical consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 12.6N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.3N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 14.2N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.7N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 15.7N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 081433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025
800 AM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DEVELOPS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 110.6W
ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 110.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue through tonight,
followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the
northeast on Monday. A turn back to the northwest with an increase
in forward speed is then expected Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the system is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 081433
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 110.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 110.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.3N 111.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.2N 112.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.7N 113.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.7N 113.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI=

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