Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DALILA-25
in Mexico

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 160400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.7N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.8N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.9N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.5N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
160400Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 109.4W.
16JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 962
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 160233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

...DALILA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON DALILA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 109.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 109.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west is expected tonight,
followed by continued westward motion for another day or two.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected during the next
couple of days. Dalila is forecast to dissipate late Tuesday or
early Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Dalila. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 160234
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
800 PM MST SUN JUN 15 2025

DALILA IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS
BECOME A REMNANT LOW. THEREFORE, THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY
ON DALILA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KT, BASED ON
RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS AIDT.

THE REMNANT LOW HAS CONTINUED ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT A TURN WESTWARD IS STILL EXPECTED
TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE WILL SHOULD THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO WHILE SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN OVER COOL WATERS. MOST MODELS
INDICATE THAT DALILA WILL DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE
NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR THE REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS ADVISORY, BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 18.6N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 160233
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 109.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON DALILA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 152200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 108.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 108.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.2N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.2N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
152200Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 108.5W.
15JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 999
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 152038
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
200 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

...DALILA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 108.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 108.4 West. Dalila is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual
turn towards the west will occur later today, with a continued
westward motion the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast the during the next
couple of days, and the system is expected to become a remnant low
later tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 152038
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
200 PM MST SUN JUN 15 2025

DALILA'S CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED, LEAVING BEHIND A SINGLE
FRAGMENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE LOWERED THIS CYCLE AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND
SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
THE STORM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST PREDICTS DALILA TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT AND SHOULD CONTINUE
GRADUALLY TURNING WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 18.2N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 18.3N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1800Z 18.3N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0600Z 18.2N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 18.2N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 152038
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 70SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N 109.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.3N 111.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.2N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 108.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 107.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 107.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.3N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.3N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.2N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.2N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 108.0W.
15JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1020
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
151200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 151436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

...DALILA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.8 West. Dalila is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual
turn towards the west will occur later today, with a continued
westward motion the next couple of days

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast the during the next
few days, and the system is expected to become a remnant low
tonight or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
possible across portions of the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco,
Colima, and Michoacán today, with localized storm totals up to 9
inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides
should decrease today.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 151434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
800 AM MST SUN JUN 15 2025

...DALILA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARDS THE WEST WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY, WITH A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM DALILA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT, JALISCO,
COLIMA, AND MICHOACA!N TODAY, WITH LOCALIZED STORM TOTALS UP TO 9
INCHES NEAR THE COAST. ANY INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
SHOULD DECREASE TODAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DALILA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 151434
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
800 AM MST SUN JUN 15 2025

DALILA'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING, AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS
IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DECOUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED DUE
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
STARTED TO DROP-OFF, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

DALILA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AT AN ESTIMATED 295/8
KT. AS DALILA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER VORTEX, A
TURN TOWARDS THE WEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW.
THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS, NEAR THE
CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY WITHIN A COOLER SSTS AND A
DRIER, MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DALILA IS ALREADY STRUGGLING TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION AND SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TONIGHT. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AND
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 151434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 70SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE 150SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 151141
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
500 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

...DALILA MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 107.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings for coastal southwestern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Dalila is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general
motion is expected during the next couple days, as Dalila moves
farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low tonight
or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero
this morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the
coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should
decrease later today.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the coast of southwestern
Mexico this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 106.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 106.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.3N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.4N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.0N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.8N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
151000Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 107.4W.
15JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1051
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 150846
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
200 AM MST SUN JUN 15 2025

DALILA IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION EVIDENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65
KNOTS AND 55 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGED FROM
45 TO 57 KNOTS, WHILE AN ASCAT PASS EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED
NUMEROUS 50 KNOT WIND BARBS. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KNOTS.

DALILA IS NOW HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 285/12 KNOTS. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AS
DALILA IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. A WESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IS
THEN FORECAST THROUGH DISSIPATION AS DALILA MOVES OVER MUCH
COOLER WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS DALILA BECOMING A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO, AND DISSIPATING BY
TUESDAY. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK CONSENSUS AIDS.

DALILA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.
MORE STEADY WEAKENING IS THEN LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACA!N AND GUERRERO THROUGH
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN NEAR THE COAST.

2. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TODAY WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 18.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 150844
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

...DALILA MOVING WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 107.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 107.2 West. Dalila is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
general motion is expected during the next couple days, as Dalila
moves farther offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dalila has reached its peak intensity and will begin to
weaken soon. Steady weakening is then forecast during the next
couple of days, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant
low tonight or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero
this morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the
coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should
decrease later today.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf


WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
during the next few hours. Winds will diminish today as Dalila
moves westward and farther away from the southwest coast of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 150841
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 80SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....165NE 150SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 107.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 150536
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
1100 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025

...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 106.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 106.9 West. Dalila is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later tonight or Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dalila is likely near its peak intensity and will begin to
gradually weaken later tonight or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero
through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches
near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 105.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 105.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.9N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.1N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.8N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.8N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 106.0W.
15JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1128
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 150255
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025

Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in
organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65
knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from
45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed
numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots.

Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 295/10 knots. A
turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila is
steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest
U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then
forecast Sunday night through dissipation as Dalila moves over much
cooler water. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a
post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and dissipating by Tuesday.
The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous
advisory, and generally in the middle of the various track aids.

Dalila should begin to weaken later tonight as some drier mid-level
air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More
steady weakening is then forecast Sunday onward as the system moves
over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level
environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous
advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacn and Guerrero through
Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.6N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 150255
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
800 PM MST SAT JUN 14 2025

...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 106.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DALILA IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM DALILA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACA!N AND GUERRERO
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED STORM TOTALS UP TO 9 INCHES
NEAR THE COAST. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN NEAR THE COAST.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DALILA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 150254
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 100SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 142342
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
600 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 105.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 105.2 West. Dalila is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual
westward turn is expected tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dalila is likely near its peak intensity and will gradually
begin to weaken by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero
through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches
near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 104.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 104.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.8N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.9N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.9N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.9N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
142200Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 105.5W.
14JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1171
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 142032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

...DALILA CONTINUES TO IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 105.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 105.5 West. Dalila is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual
westward turn is expected later tonight into Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Dalila is likely near its peak intensity and will gradually begin
to weaken by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero
through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches
near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 142033
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Dalila, with
cold cloud tops near -80 C and a well-defined convective band shown
in satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer pass showed peak winds
near 55 kt, which prompted an increase in the estimated intensity to
55 kt during the intermediate advisory. Since then, the convective
structure has remained steady, and with both objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates continuing to support this
intensity, thus, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion is estimated at 300/9 kt. The storm is expected
to continue moving toward the west-northwest into tonight, then
begin turning toward the west by Sunday as the mid- to upper-level
ridge continues to strengthen to the north. The forecast guidance
remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast
track is close to the various consensus models and is similar to the
previous NHC forecast.

Dalila has likely reached its peak intensity and the storm may
maintain its current strength for a few more hours. By Sunday, the
storm will begin moving over cooler waters and into a drier, more
stable environment, which will initiate a weakening trend. The
system is forecast to become a remnant low in 48 hours, then
dissipate into an open trough in 72 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows a blend of the statistical-dynamical
guidance and is very similar to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through
Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 16.8N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.9N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 16/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 142032
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
2100 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 105.5W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 120SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 270SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 105.5W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.9N 110.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.9N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 105.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 141753
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
1200 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

...DALILA STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 105.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 105.1 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (16 km/h). A gradual
west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain
offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible today, with a
weakening trend beginning on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero
through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches
near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 141600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 104.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 104.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.3N 106.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.9N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.1N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.1N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.2N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.2N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
141600Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 104.9W.
14JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1210
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141200Z IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141500Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 141434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
900 AM CST SAT JUN 14 2025

...DALILA'S OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A GRADUAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH
A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES (370 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM DALILA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACA!N AND GUERRERO
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED STORM TOTALS UP TO 9 INCHES
NEAR THE COAST. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN NEAR THE COAST.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DALILA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TODAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 141434
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

Dalila continues to show signs of strengthening, with deep
convection bursting over the low-level center, and curved banding
features near the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a fairly
large range of satellite intensity estimates this morning from 45 to
65 kt. Given the improving satellite presentation, the initial
intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory. A scatterometer pass
is scheduled over the system around 16Z, which may give a better
estimate of surface winds.

The storm is currently moving northwestward at an estimated 305/10
kt. A mid-level ridge is building westward over northern Mexico,
which should cause Dalila to gradually turn west-northwestward
later today. As the system begins to weaken into a shallower vortex
on Sunday, Dalila will turn more westward within the low-level wind
flow. The latest NHC forecast is near the previous one, and lies
near the latest simple and corrected consensus aids.

Dalila may be nearing peak intensity, with only about 6 to 12 h left
within a favorable environment. Thus, the NHC forecast shows slight
strengthening today, with a peak intensity of 55 kt. Along the
forecast track, Dalila will move over much cooler SSTs tonight and
begin to enter a drier, more stable airmass. This will lead to
steady weakening, and eventually the system will struggle to produce
convection. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one,
however now shows the system becoming a remnant low in 48 h,
although this could occur sooner. By day 4, models depict the
remnant low dissipating into an open trough.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through
Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 16.5N 104.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 141434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT.......200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 300SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 141144
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
600 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

...OUTER BANDS OF DALILA IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 104.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 104.3 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual
west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to
move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is expected today. A weakening trend
is forecast to begin on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Monday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near
the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 141000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 103.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 103.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.7N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.6N 107.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.0N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.1N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.0N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.8N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
141000Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 103.9W.
14JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1271
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

...DALILA STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 103.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.9 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected today. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel
to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Some additional
strengthening is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Monday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near
the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 140849
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

Dalila has become better organized early this morning, with the
latest satellite images showing well defined convective banding
around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.5/55 knots and T3.0/45 knots.
Objective estimates ranged from 34 to 43 knots, while a recent ASCAT
pass showed several wind barbs close to 40 kt. Based on a blend of
these data and taking into account the potential for some
under-sampling in ASCAT, the initial intensity for this advisory has
been increased to 45 knots.

Dalila is heading toward the northwest, or 305/10 knots. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected later today as the system
moves along the southern periphery of a building mid-level ridge
over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A gradual turn toward
the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila moves over cooler
water and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind
flow. A westward motion is then forecast to continue through
dissipation Monday night, and this may be generous as Dalila may not
survive that long. The track forecast lies nearly on top of the
previous track and is in close agreement with the latest consensus
guidance.

There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain
over warm water and light to moderate effective easterly shear
today. The forecast calls for some strengthening today, and the peak
intensity was nudged slightly higher to better align with the latest
intensity model trends. Beginning tonight the system will cross the
26C isotherm and over progressively cooler water, and this is
expected to begin the weakening phase with Dalila forecast to become
a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and possibly sooner than
that. The latest intensity forecast close to the middle of the
intensity guidance envelope through the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides
are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 140845
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......220NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE 330SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.9W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...240NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 103.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140549
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
1200 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

...DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 103.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...72 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.2 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is
forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is
forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (72 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or so.
Weakening should begin by Sunday.

Dalila is a large storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near
the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area and are possible within the watch area tonight and Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 140358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.06.2025

TROPICAL STORM DALILA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 102.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.06.2025 15.3N 102.7W WEAK
12UTC 14.06.2025 16.5N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.06.2025 17.4N 105.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.06.2025 18.6N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.06.2025 18.9N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2025 19.5N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2025 20.0N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 39.5N 59.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.06.2025 39.1N 56.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.06.2025 41.1N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2025 42.8N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2025 45.3N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140358


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 140400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 102.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 102.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.0N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.1N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.9N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.1N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.1N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.2N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.1N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
140400Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 103.2W.
14JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1326
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140000Z IS
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 140255
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

The satellite presentation of Dalila has improved a bit this
evening, with the latest images showing an increase in deep
convection around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 knots, while
the objective estimates ranged from 32 to 40 knots. Based on a blend
of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 knots for
this advisory.

Dalila is now heading toward the northwest, or 315/10 knots. This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as
the system moves along the southern periphery of a building
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night and Sunday,
as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered
by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast
to continue through dissipation on Tuesday, and this may be generous
as Dalila may not survive that long. The latest track forecast has
been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, in line with
the latest consensus model trends.

There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain
over warm water and within light to moderate easterly shear for
around 24 hours. The forecast calls for some strengthening during
this time, but the peak intensity has been nudged slightly lower to
better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beyond 36
hours, the system will move over much cooler water, and steady
weakening is forecast with Dalila expected to become a post-tropical
remnant low by 60 hours, and possibly sooner than that. The latest
intensity forecast is generally on the high end of the intensity
guidance through 36 hours, then is roughly in the middle of the pack
through storm dissipation.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides
are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.2N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140254
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 103.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 103.0 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn
toward the west is forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of,
the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or so.
Weakening should begin by Sunday.

Dalila is a large storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near
the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area and are possible within the watch area tonight and Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 140254
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.0W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......270NE 180SE 0SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 450SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.0W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 103.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 132343
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
600 PM CST FRI JUN 13 2025

...DALILA BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
* NORTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF DALILA IS FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF,
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY SUNDAY.

DALILA IS A LARGE SYSTEM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 310 MILES (500 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM DALILA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACA!N, AND COLIMA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES NEAR
THE COAST. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN NEAR THE COAST.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DALILA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 132032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

Satellite images and recent ASCAT data show that Dalila is a large
tropical storm with its 34-kt wind radii spread out over a broad
area, especially east of the center. The ASCAT passes showed
tropical-storm-force winds occurring very near the coast of southern
Mexico, which are likely aided by the local terrain. The initial
intensity of the storm remains 35 kt based on the aforementioned
ASCAT data and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Dalila is the second
earliest fourth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin since
records began in 1949, behind 1956.

Dalila likely will strengthen during the next day or so while it
remains over warm waters and in a low to moderate wind shear
environment. However, rapid intensification is not expected given
the large size of the storm's wind field and the lack of an inner
core. The opportunity for strengthening should end by late Saturday
when Dalila is expected to cross the 26 C SST isotherm. Thereafter,
a combination of cool waters and stable air should cause rapid
weakening, and Dalila is now forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone by late Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.

The storm is still moving north-northwestward at about 12 kt. A
gradual turn to the northwest and then the west is expected over the
next few days as Dalila moves on the south side of a building
mid-level ridge. There is high confidence that the center of the
system should stay off the coast of Mexico, but the northern extent
of the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to brush the
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The NHC track
forecast is a touch north of the previous one and near the middle of
the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila could bring locally
heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and
Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 14.8N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 18.5N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/1800Z 18.5N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 132031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
300 PM CST FRI JUN 13 2025

...DALILA BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 102.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
* NORTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST FORECAST BY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, DALILA IS FORECAST
TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY SUNDAY.

DALILA IS A LARGE SYSTEM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES (500 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM DALILA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACA!N, AND COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DALILA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA, AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 132030
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
2100 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.4W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......270NE 180SE 0SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 480SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.4W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.8N 105.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 108.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.5N 110.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 102.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 131731
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
1200 PM CST FRI JUN 13 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DALILA...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 101.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
* NORTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST. DALILA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FORECAST BY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, DALILA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STORM MOVES PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES (195 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM DALILA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACA!N, AND COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DALILA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA, AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA ON SATURDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 131559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 101.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.06.2025 13.6N 101.4W WEAK
00UTC 14.06.2025 14.9N 104.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.06.2025 15.9N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.06.2025 17.3N 106.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.06.2025 18.8N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2025 19.7N 111.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2025 20.4N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131559


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 101.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.06.2025 0 13.6N 101.4W 1006 30
0000UTC 14.06.2025 12 14.9N 104.0W 1003 35
1200UTC 14.06.2025 24 15.9N 105.5W 1003 38
0000UTC 15.06.2025 36 17.3N 106.8W 1003 36
1200UTC 15.06.2025 48 18.8N 109.2W 1006 26
0000UTC 16.06.2025 60 19.7N 111.4W 1008 21
1200UTC 16.06.2025 72 20.4N 113.0W 1010 18
0000UTC 17.06.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131559


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 131436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 101.6W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, and a
Tropical Storm Watch north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 101.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a
turn toward the west-northwest forecast by Sunday. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore
of, the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The
system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast
of southwestern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Four-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts
up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Four-E, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Four-E will affect
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 131437
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
900 AM CST FRI JUN 13 2025

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
BURST OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80 C.
THUS, THE DISTURBANCE NOW MEETS THE REQUIREMENTS TO BE CLASSIFIED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN AROUND 30 KT WITH A T2.0 FROM TAFB. THUS, THE INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 30 KT, AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE RECENT FORMATION OF A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER, BUT IT IS ESTIMATED AT 335/9 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER MEXICO
LATER TODAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER
THIS WEEKEND. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE, WHICH LIES NEAR
THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS AIDS. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM
WILL PARALLEL THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, REMAINING OFFSHORE.

AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36-48 H, WITH THE SYSTEM
OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.
AS THE SYSTEM TOOK A LITTLE LONGER TO CONSOLIDATE, THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55
KT, WHICH LIES NEAR THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHER PEAK. BEYOND 48
H, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND OVER
COOLER SSTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION BY 72 H, BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW, AND THEN DISSIPATING BY 120 H.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E MAY BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACA!N, AND
COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE.

2. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THAT AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 13.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 17.8N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z 18.3N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 131436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 101.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 101.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 101.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.3N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 101.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 131134
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
600 AM CST FRI JUN 13 2025

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 101.3W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA LATER TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FORECAST
BY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH ...NEAR 100 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...NEAR 100 PERCENT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACA!N, AND COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 130832
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
300 AM CST FRI JUN 13 2025

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 100.8W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
12.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FORECAST BY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACA!N, AND COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 130832
TCDEP4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the
disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, with the
convective banding increasing and the circulation becoming better
defined. However, the system does not yet have either enough
organized convection or a sufficiently well-defined circulation to
be considered a tropical cyclone. The scatterometer data showed
25-30 kt winds about 120 n mi south and southeast of the center, so
the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 335/8 kt. Satellite
imagery shows that the depression is currently south of a mid- to
upper-level trough over Texas and northern Mexico and southeast of
a mid- to upper-level ridge over Baja California and the adjacent
Pacific. The dynamical models forecast that the trough will weaken
and move eastward during the next 2-3 days, with the ridge building
eastward to the north of the system. This evolution should cause
the disturbance to turn northwestward later today, followed by a
west-northwestward and westward motion later in the forecast period.
The forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and
the new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and
just a little north of the previous track. There is a possibility
of erratic motion today as the system gets better organized, and
this may affect how close the system will come to the coast of
Mexico.

The forecast track keeps the system over warm sea surface
temperatures for the next 36-48 h. However, a combination of the
broad structure and moderate easterly vertical wind shear is likely
to slow the development. The new intensity guidance is a little
lower than for the previous forecast, and the forecast peak
intensity of 60 kt is near the high end of the guidance envelope.
After 48 h, cooler waters and drier mid-level air will lead to
steady weakening, and the system is forecast to dissipate
by 120 h.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring
locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán,
and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when
it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 12.8N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 130831
TCMEP4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 100.8W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 100.8W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 100.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 100.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 130531
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
1200 AM CST FRI JUN 13 2025

...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 100.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.7 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, AND COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 130235
TCDEP4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025

Satellite images show the disturbance is still broad with little
improvement in organization this evening. There is minimal
convective banding, and most of the thunderstorm activity is
displaced well away from the cloud system center. The broad low
remains a 30-kt disturbance for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 6 kt, though
it is uncertain due to the lack of a well-defined center. The
near-term motion could be erratic and slightly more northward
overnight while the disturbance organizes and forms a center. But,
the track guidance agrees that as the system organizes and deepens,
it will resume a northwestward motion and move parallel to the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Little change is shown in the updated NHC
forecast, which remains near the simple and corrected consensus
aids. However, larger changes could be required in future issuances
depending on where and when a center eventually forms.

The broad structure does not suggest strengthening will occur
quickly in the near term. Once the system consolidates, the warm sea
surface temperatures and moist environment appear generally
favorable for intensification. Although the regional models show the
system reaching hurricane status, moderate (15-20 kt) easterly shear
shown by the global models for the next several days could make it
difficult for that much strengthening to occur. For now, the NHC
intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a strong tropical
storm, in line with the simple intensity consensus. Cooler waters
and drier mid-level air will lead to weakening during the latter
half of the forecast period, and the system is forecast to dissipate
by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring
locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán,
and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when
it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 130233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025

...DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 100.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.9 North, longitude 100.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system
is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue
strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts
up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will
affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 130233
TCMEP4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 100.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 122338
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
600 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 100.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 100.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system
is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue
strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts
up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will
affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 122044
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025

...DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS TO COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 100.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of Mexico from Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.3 North, longitude 100.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest to
northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue
strengthening as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts
up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will
affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 122044
TCDEP4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
300 PM CST THU JUN 12 2025

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SOUTH OF MEXICO, THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN
MONITORING HAVE INCREASED AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
WHILE SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION, THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO LAND AREAS
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS INITIATING POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL SINCE THE SYSTEM IS
STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE, BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. A NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, BEING
STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK EVOLUTION, ALTHOUGH MINOR TRACK
SHIFTS MAY CAUSE GREATER IMPACTS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE NHC
FORECAST LIES NEAR THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS AIDS. SINCE THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS TYPICALLY LARGER IN THESE SITUATIONS,
AND FUTURE TRACK ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED.

THE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE WELL-DEFINED CENTER SHOULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPS AN INNER CORE, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME GUIDANCE AIDS SUCH AS HCCA AND THE
HURRICANE REGIONAL MODELS THAT LIE ABOVE THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST.
GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND
THE LIMITING WIND SHEAR, THE NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE SIMPLE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. BEYOND DAY 4, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME HOSTILE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING, AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION MOVING INTO COOLER SSTS AND A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME, AND CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY
DAY 5.

BASED ON THE NHC FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE OUTER BANDS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E MAY BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN,
AND COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE.

2. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN
IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 11.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 13/1800Z 13.3N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 15.5N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 16.5N 106.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 122043
TCMEP4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 100.2W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 100.2W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 100.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.3N 101.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 104.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 85SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 108.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 100.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=