Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ERICK-25
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 200359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 102.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.06.2025 19.1N 102.7W WEAK
12UTC 20.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200359


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 200359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 102.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.06.2025 0 19.1N 102.7W 1007 20
1200UTC 20.06.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200359


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 015
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.8N 100.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 100.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.7N 102.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 100.9W.
20JUN25. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1273 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS
1006 MB.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 200233
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 PM CST THU JUN 19 2025

ERICK HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER MEXICO, AS THE SYSTEM IS
NO LONGER PRODUCING ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME POORLY DEFINED. BASED ON THESE DEVELOPMENTS, THE CYCLONE IS
DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY. A 12-H FORECAST POINT IS INCLUDED, BUT THE CIRCULATION
MAY WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE 12 H.

ALTHOUGH ERICK IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE, HEAVY RAINS WILL
LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 18.0N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
12H 20/1200Z 18.7N 102.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 200232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025

...ERICK DECAYS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA...
...THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 100.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick
was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph
(20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until the system
dissipates over Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the
post-tropical low is expected to dissipate later tonight or early
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches
through the night mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals
of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 1
to 3 inches, with maximum totals of 5 inches, are expected across
the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur this
evening in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center
of Erick.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through
tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in products issued by the Meteorological Service of Mexico.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 200232
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 100.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 100.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 100.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 102.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 100.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 192335
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025

...ERICK RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 100.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erick
was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.2 West. Erick is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern
Mexico until it dissipates tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick
will likely dissipate tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches
mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches
possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the
states of Michoacan and Oaxaca.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next
several hours in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center
of Erick.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through
tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 99.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 99.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.3N 101.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 99.9W.
19JUN25. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1343 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 192032
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025

...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 99.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings east of
Punta Maldonado and downgraded the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical
Storm Warning from Acapulco to Punta Maldonado.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 99.7 West. Erick is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern
Mexico until it dissipates tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely
dissipate tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches of
rainfall mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16
inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur for a few more
hours in the warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward
sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger
than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some
elevated locations could be even greater.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through
tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 192032
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 PM CST THU JUN 19 2025

ERICK CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER
THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE INNER CORE HAS NOW NEARLY
COMPLETELY COLLAPSED, AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME
QUITE RAGGED. BASED ON THE DEGRADED APPEARANCE AND DECREASING
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
45 KT, MAKING ERICK A TROPICAL STORM.

CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ERICK CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH ERICK IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE, HEAVY RAINS WILL LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO MAINLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 17.4N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 192032
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 99.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 99.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 99.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 99.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 191730
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
1200 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025

...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 99.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Escondido

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico
until it dissipates tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely
dissipate tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches in
portions of the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero with storm totals of
16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
the states of, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to
continue for a couple of more hours in portions of the hurricane
warning area. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue into
the late afternoon in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds
atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up
to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
along portions of the coast of southern Mexico in areas of onshore
winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.06.2025

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 98.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.06.2025 0 16.1N 98.9W 970 72
0000UTC 20.06.2025 12 19.1N 102.6W 1004 26
1200UTC 20.06.2025 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 37.0N 62.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.06.2025 120 36.6N 62.8W 1014 24
0000UTC 25.06.2025 132 36.3N 63.2W 1013 23
1200UTC 25.06.2025 144 35.5N 63.0W 1012 23
0000UTC 26.06.2025 156 35.8N 62.3W 1012 22
1200UTC 26.06.2025 168 37.2N 62.6W 1012 21


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191559


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 191559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.06.2025

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 98.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.06.2025 16.1N 98.9W STRONG
00UTC 20.06.2025 19.1N 102.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 37.0N 62.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.06.2025 36.6N 62.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 25.06.2025 36.3N 63.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.06.2025 35.5N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2025 35.8N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2025 37.2N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191559


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 98.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 98.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5N 100.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 98.9W.
19JUN25. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1409 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 191438
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 AM CST THU JUN 19 2025

ERICK MADE LANDFALL IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SANTIAGO PINOTEPA
NACIONAL IN EXTREME WESTERN OAXACA, MEXICO, AROUND 1130 UTC THIS
MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 110 KT
(125 MPH). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAJOR HURRICANE'S STRUCTURE
WAS DEGRADING AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST. IN FACT, THE EYE FEATURE
WAS NOT APPARENT AT THE LANDFALL TIME, MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION AND
TIME THAT ERICK CROSSED THE COAST UNCERTAIN. ERICK WAS THE EARLIEST
MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL IN MEXICO SINCE RECORDS BEGAN, AND THAT
INCLUDES BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC COASTS.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY WEAKENING SINCE IT MADE LANDFALL.
THE INNER CORE APPEARS TO BE COLLAPSING WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING NEAR
THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
INNER CORE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 75 KT, BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AROUND THAT VALUE. CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND FARTHER INLAND, AND ERICK IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY
TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE RAPIDLY,
HEAVY RAINS WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. SO FAR, THERE HAS BEEN A REPORT OF ABOUT 250 MM (10 IN) OF
RAIN IN EL MARQUES IN OAXACA, AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO MAINLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

2. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, WILL CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

3. STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 191437
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025

...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...FLOODING RAINS AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 98.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings east of
Puerto Escondido and discontinued the Hurricane Watch west of
Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Escondido

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 98.8 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico
until it dissipates tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely
dissipate tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches in
portions of the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero with storm totals of
16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
the states of, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to
continue for a couple of more hours in portions of the hurricane
warning area. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue into
the afternoon in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop
and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30
percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected
to produce coastal flooding along portions of the coast of southern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 191437
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
1500 UTC THU JUN 19 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 98.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 98.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 98.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 98.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 191137
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
600 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025

...MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME WESTERN OAXACA
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 98.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
along the coast of Mexico near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 98.3
West, just east of Punta Maldonado. Erick is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Erick is expected to move inland over southern Mexico throughout
the day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erick is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Erick is expected to rapidly weaken over the
mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate tonight
or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with
maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area during the next few hours, with destructive winds near the core
of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area today. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the tropical
storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of
hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated
locations could be even greater.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected
to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center
crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 97.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 97.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.7N 98.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.5N 99.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 98.0W.
19JUN25. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1484 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 939 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 190851
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025

...ERICK VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...BRINGING EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR ITS CORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 97.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 97.9 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion
of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican
state of Guerrero within the next few hours, and then continue
inland over southern Mexico later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erick is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. After landfall, Erick should rapidly
weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to
dissipate tonight or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with
maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning during the next few hours, with extremely destructive
winds near the core of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area today. Tropical Storm conditions are
currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical
storm conditions are ongoing in the tropical storm warning area.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected
to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center
crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 190852
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 AM CST THU JUN 19 2025

ERICK IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
ITS RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE HAS ENDED, LIKELY DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 120 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS. ERICK REMAINS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. HOWEVER, RAPID WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

SMOOTHING OUT THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK, THE MOTION
ESTIMATE, 310/8 KT, REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THIS GENERAL
MOTION, ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE, IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA, GUIDANCE.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE, AND
DEVASTATING WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY NEAR ITS CORE. TAKE SHELTER IN
THE INTERIOR PORTION OF A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE AND REMAIN SHELTERED
UNTIL AFTER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS PASS.

2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

3. A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 97.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 190850
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 15NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 97.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 97.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 190544
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
1200 AM CST THU JUN 19 2025

...ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 97.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO SALINA CRUZ
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA OR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MEXICAN
STATE OF GUERRERO THIS MORNING, AND THEN CONTINUE INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, ERICK SHOULD RAPIDLY
WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB (27.73 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE ERICK CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: ERICK WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES, WITH
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 16 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH EXTREMELY
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR THE CORE OF ERICK. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING ONSHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BEGINNING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ATOP
AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30
PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS INDICATED IN THIS
ADVISORY, AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS COULD BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 190544
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ERICK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
1200 AM CST THU JUN 19 2025

THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY MAINLY TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF ERICK.
AFTER AN EARLIER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT, SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
VERY DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE.
USING A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE ADT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SATCON VALUES
FROM UW/CIMSS YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 125 KT, WHICH
IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE INTERACTION
WITH LAND SHOULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. ERICK WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL.

A SLIGHT LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK BASED
ON THE RECENT MOTION, WHICH IS NOW 305/8 KT.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE 06Z
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE, AND
DEVASTATING WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY WHERE THE CORE MOVES ONSHORE.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE WARNING AREA,
AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

3. A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 190543
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ERICK SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0600 UTC THU JUN 19 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 97.5W AT 19/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 97.5W AT 19/0600Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 97.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ65 KNHC 190540
TCUEP5

Hurricane Erick Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
1140 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...ERICK STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE...

Satellite imagery indicates Erick has strengthened into a category
four major hurricane with estimated maximum sustained winds of 145
mph (230 km/h). A special advisory will be issued around 0600 UTC
in lieu of an intermediate advisory.

Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 190400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.06.2025

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 96.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.06.2025 0 14.8N 96.8W 972 72
1200UTC 19.06.2025 12 16.9N 99.2W 1002 29
0000UTC 20.06.2025 24 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190359


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 96.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 96.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.2N 97.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.8N 99.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 97.1W.
19JUN25. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1542 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 953 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 190242
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 97.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of Erick.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 97.1 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the
western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern
portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero early Thursday morning, and
then continue inland over southern Mexico during the day on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Erick is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
could occur before landfall. After landfall, Erick should rapidly
weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to
dissipate Thursday night or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with
maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning during the next few hours, and they are possible in
the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are
currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area
beginning during the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the
windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent
stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and
in some elevated locations could be even greater.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected
to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center
crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 190243
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 PM CST WED JUN 18 2025

ERICK'S RAPID INTENSIFICATION CONTINUED THROUGH 18/23Z. AS AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR THAT TIME REPORTED
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 953 MB. HOWEVER, SINCE
THAT TIME, THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE WENT THROUGH
A PERIOD WHEN IT WAS A LITTLE DEGRADED, SUGGESTING THAT THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE MAY HAVE SLOWED. THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN
ATTEMPTED EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, AS THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTED
CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA DURING ITS PASS THROUGH THE CENTER. THE
INTENSITY IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AS THE PLANE HAD TO ABORT DUE TO
COMPUTER PROBLEMS BEFORE IT COULD PROBE THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL.
BASED ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE, THE OBSERVED WIND STRUCTURE, AND THE
VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 110 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD AT 320/8 KT. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE STATE OF
OAXACA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 H, WITH A SUBSEQUENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
BRINGING THE SYSTEM FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME
AS FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION AND MOTION.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING, AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ERICK COULD GET STRONGER BEFORE LANDFALL IF THE
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COMPLETES. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL, AND
ERICK IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE. IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE OF OAXACA OR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE OF GUERRERO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. DEVASTATING WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE CORE
OF THE STORM MOVES ONSHORE. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY
DETERIORATING, AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

3. A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 15.2N 97.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 17.8N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 190242
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 97.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 97.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N 99.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 97.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 182344
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
600 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ERICK IS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 96.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of Erick.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 96.7 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to
approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland
on Thursday morning.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near
120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening
is expected until the center makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
90 miles (150 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 953 mb (28.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with
maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning during the next several hours, and they are possible
in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. In the hurricane warning
area, tropical storm conditions are expected to begin during the
next few hours, and preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning during the
next several hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected
to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center
crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 96.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 96.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.5N 97.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.0N 98.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.5N 100.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 96.7W.
18JUN25. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1588 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 182033
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...DANGEROUS ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 96.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of Erick.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 96.5 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to
approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland
on Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane strength by this
evening, with continued additional strengthening possible overnight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with
maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight into early Thursday and possible in the hurricane
watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the warning area this evening or overnight, and
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area beginning this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected
to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center
crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 182034
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 PM CST WED JUN 18 2025

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COMPLETED ITS MISSION INTO
ERICK THIS MORNING AND FOUND 93-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
ALONG WITH A DROPSONDE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 971 MB AROUND 17Z. THE
RECON DATA SHOWED STRENGTHENING IN BETWEEN THE 1530Z FIX AND THE 17Z
FIX. AN EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING, AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE EYE CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE CIRCULAR WITH WARMING EYE
TEMPERATURES. THE EYE IS NEARLY COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. AS A RESULT,
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING QUICKLY. THE
18Z SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGE FROM 90-102
KT. RECENT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE
95-100 KT RANGE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KT, AND THIS MIGHT BE A BIT
CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 315/8 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION, ALONG WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT ACCELERATION, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LANDFALL, WHICH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK HAS BEEN MOVING
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST, AND AS A RESULT,
THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS LANDFALL SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD,
CLOSE TO THE LATEST TVCE AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.

ERICK HAS BEEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
ALONG ERICK'S FORECAST TRACK, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT
TERM APPEARS VERY LIKELY. THE 12Z HAFS MODELS AND THE 18Z SHIPS
GUIDANCE HAVE ERICK BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON. THE VARIOUS
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES ALL SHOW GREATER THAN A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF 20 KT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 H. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST SHOWS 110 KT AT 12 H, WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ERICK COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN
THE HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS, AROUND 2330 UTC TODAY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST OF WESTERN OAXACA OR
EASTERN GUERRERO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY. DEVASTATING WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE CORE
OF THE STORM MOVES ONSHORE. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY
DETERIORATING, AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION BEFORE SUNSET.

2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

3. A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 14.5N 96.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 98.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/0600Z 18.5N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 182033
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
2100 UTC WED JUN 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 100.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 96.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 181734
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
1200 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ERICK NOW A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of Erick.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 96.3 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to
approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland
on Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected to
continue today, and Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane
strength tonight or early Thursday as it approaches the coast of
southern Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 971 mb
(28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with
maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima,
Jalisco and Mexico City.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area by this evening or overnight, and preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area
beginning late today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 181558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.06.2025

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 95.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.06.2025 13.7N 95.6W MODERATE
00UTC 19.06.2025 15.0N 96.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181558


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 181558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.06.2025

HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 95.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.06.2025 0 13.7N 95.6W 993 50
0000UTC 19.06.2025 12 15.0N 96.7W 993 54
1200UTC 19.06.2025 24 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181558


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 181600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 13.6N 95.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 95.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.5N 96.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.9N 98.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.4N 99.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181600Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 96.1W.
18JUN25. HURRICANE 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1638 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 181442
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 AM CST WED JUN 18 2025

...ERICK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 96.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST
OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO SALINA CRUZ
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERICK IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND
OR BE NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY.

ERICK IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, AND ERICK IS FORECAST
TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB (29.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE ERICK CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: ERICK WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES, WITH
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
GUATEMALA AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
JALISCO AND MEXICO CITY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ERICK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT, AND PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 181442
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 AM CST WED JUN 18 2025

ERICK HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
SYMMETRIC AND LARGE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE AREA WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IMPRESSIVE BANDING
STRUCTURES BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
AREA. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGE
FROM 65-77 KT, WHILE THE RECENT ADT ESTIMATE IS IN THE 65-70 KT
RANGE. SINCE THE TIME OF THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AT 12Z, GOES
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE INNER-CORE STUCTURE HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND AN EYE MAY BE FORMING. THE INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE INCREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, AND ERIK HAS BEGUN
ITS ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO ERICK,
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.

ERICK CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST, OR 310/7 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION, ALONG WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT ACCELERATION, IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LANDFALL, WHICH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRACK IS HIGH. USERS SHOULD
KEEP IN MIND THAT SMALL TRACK DEVIATIONS COULD STILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND COASTAL IMPACTS
OCCUR DUE TO THE OBLIQUE ANGLE OF APPROACH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO
THE HCCA AID.

VERY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SURROUND ERICK,
WITH WARM OCEAN WATERS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A MOIST
MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE, AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH LANDFALL. THE 06Z HAFS MODELS ARE FORECASTING ERICK TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE VARIOUS SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDICES INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT 24 H, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ERICK BECOMING A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST EXPLICITLY SHOWS ERICK BECOMING A
MAJOR HURRICANE, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THIS FORECAST COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE, ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TREND OF IMPROVED STRUCTURE
CONTINUES TODAY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST OF WESTERN OAXACA OR EASTERN
GUERRERO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. DEVASTATING
WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE CORE OF THE STORM MOVES ONSHORE.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

3. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST, IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 13.9N 96.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 14.5N 96.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 98.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 181441
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
1500 UTC WED JUN 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 96.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 96.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.5N 96.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 98.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 96.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 181151
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
600 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...ERICK NOW A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Erick.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 95.7 West. Erick is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later
today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is
expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and
move inland or be near the coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and Erick may reach
major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern
Mexico Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with
maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are expected across
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 181000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 13.1N 95.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 95.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.9N 96.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.0N 97.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.7N 98.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.0N 100.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181000Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 95.5W.
18JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1684
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 180834
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 AM CST WED JUN 18 2025

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN ERICKA S
STRUCTURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY WITHIN THE
INNER-CORE REGION. A RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMED A
BETTER-ORGANIZED INNER CORE, CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION TREND. ALTHOUGH ASCAT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
SAMPLED ABOUT 40-KT PEAK WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, ERICK
HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE THAT TIME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.5 FROM TAFB AND T4.5 FROM
SAB, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS HAS INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 KT AND CONTINUES TO RISE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 310/6 KT. THIS RELATIVELY
SLOW FORWARD MOTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL, WHICH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRACK IS RELATIVELY
HIGH. THAT SAID, SMALL TRACK DEVIATIONS COULD STILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
COASTAL IMPACTS OCCUR DUE TO THE OBLIQUE ANGLE OF APPROACH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HCCA AND
TVCE AIDS AND REMAINS NEAR THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ERICK REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 C,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SEVERAL
DYNAMIC REGIONAL MODELS PROJECT ERICK TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL, AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI)
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS
NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT COULD STILL BE
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE, ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TREND OF IMPROVED
STRUCTURE CONTINUES TODAY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY, AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO.

2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

3. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST, IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 13.3N 95.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 13.9N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.0N 97.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 180832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...ERICK EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 95.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Erick.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 95.4 West. Erick is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later
today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is
expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and
move inland or be near the coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and the system may
reach major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of
southern Mexico Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with
maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are expected across
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 180832
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.9N 96.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 97.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 95.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 180553
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
1200 AM CST WED JUN 18 2025

...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 95.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
* EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO SALINA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERICK IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND OR BE NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND
ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ERICK IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM ERICK CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM ERICK COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO
16 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN
STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS,
MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ERICK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE: DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 180358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.06.2025

TROPICAL STORM ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 94.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.06.2025 12.7N 94.7W WEAK
12UTC 18.06.2025 13.6N 95.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.06.2025 14.4N 97.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2025 15.3N 97.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180358


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 180358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.06.2025

TROPICAL STORM ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 94.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.06.2025 0 12.7N 94.7W 1003 31
1200UTC 18.06.2025 12 13.6N 95.8W 1001 35
0000UTC 19.06.2025 24 14.4N 97.1W 1000 38
1200UTC 19.06.2025 36 15.3N 97.8W 997 50
0000UTC 20.06.2025 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180358


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 94.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 94.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.7N 95.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.7N 96.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.0N 98.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.4N 100.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.8N 101.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 95.0W.
18JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1713
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 180240
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 PM CST TUE JUN 17 2025

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERICK IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
WELL-ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND COOLED, WITH
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATING CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85 C
NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED AN IMPROVED
INNER-CORE STRUCTURE, INCLUDING A DEVELOPING CURVED BAND. THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0 AND T4.0, RESPECTIVELY,
AND OBJECTIVE ADT VALUES ARE APPROACHING T3.5. IN ADDITION,
JUST-RECEIVED SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR DATA INDICATE WINDS NEAR
50 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY TO REPRESENT A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES.

ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 310/6 KT. THIS SLOWING IN
FORWARD SPEED IS CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH, CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CENTER OF ERICK APPROACHING THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL TRACK IS RELATIVELY HIGH, SMALL DEVIATIONS COULD LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
COASTAL IMPACTS OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS
OF THE HCCA AND TVCE AIDS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ERICK REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 C,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SEVERAL
DYNAMIC REGIONAL MODELS BRING ERICK TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE LANDFALL, AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT COULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE, ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TREND OF IMPROVED STRUCTURE
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY, AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO COAST.

2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

3. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST, IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.1N 94.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 13.7N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 14.7N 96.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 17.4N 100.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1200Z 18.8N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 180238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 94.9W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from
Puerto Angel to Acapulco. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from
west of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta Angel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Erick.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 94.9 West. Erick is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is
expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night
and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Erick is expected to become a hurricane by by early Wednesday.
Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to
16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8
inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane
watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 180238
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 94.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 80SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 94.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 94.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.7N 95.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 96.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 101.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 94.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 172343
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
600 PM CST TUE JUN 17 2025

...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 94.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
* EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO SALINA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERICK IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND OR BE NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
AND ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ERICK IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR AT MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM ERICK CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM ERICK COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO
16 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN
STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS,
MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ERICK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE: DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 94.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 94.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.3N 95.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.2N 96.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.4N 97.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.9N 99.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.3N 100.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172200Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 94.5W.
17JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1746
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 172031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 94.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later
today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Erick.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 94.4 West. Erick is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick
is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday
night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early
Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane
strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday
night and Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to
16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8
inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane
watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 172032
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 PM CST TUE JUN 17 2025

ERICK HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WITH AN EXTENDED CLOUD BAND CURLING ONE REVOLUTION AROUND
THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF A DRY SLOT
FILTERING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTHEAST, AND POSSIBLY AS
A RESULT, INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE BAND ARE NOT AS
COLD AS THEY COULD BE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
RISEN TO T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB, BUT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT 45 KT SINCE OBJECTIVE
NUMBERS ARE CLOSEST TO THE TAFB ESTIMATE.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWESTWARD (310 DEGREES) AND
IS MOVING AROUND 6 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE, AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, SHOULD
KEEP ERICK ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS, AND
IT A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION. BECAUSE OF THE
OBLIQUE ANGLE OF ERICK'S TRACK RELATIVE TO THE COAST, IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS MIGHT OCCUR,
BUT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THEY WILL OCCUR IN THE
AREA OF WESTERN OAXACA OR EASTERN GUERRERO STATES.

DESPITE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN, THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND
SHEAR, HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT RAPID STRENGTHENING. ERICK ALSO HAS THE
STRUCTURE TO ENABLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND IT MAY ONLY TAKE
MIXING OUT SOME OF THE DRY AIR FOR THAT PROCESS TO BEGIN. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDICES FELL A LITTLE ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE,
MAINLY DUE TO A NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE INFLUX OF DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. HOWEVER, ASSUMING THIS DRY AIR CAN MIX OUT,
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE (CLOSEST TO HCCA AND HMON), AND STILL SHOWS ERICK NEAR OR
AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY, AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF OAXACA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GUERRERO COAST.

2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

3. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST, IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 12.9N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.2N 96.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.4N 97.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 99.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/0600Z 18.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 172031
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
2100 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 94.4W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 80SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 94.4W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 94.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.3N 95.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.2N 96.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.4N 97.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 100.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 94.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 171746
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
1200 PM CST TUE JUN 17 2025

...ERICK STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 94.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
* EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO SALINA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERICK IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND OR BE
NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO, AND ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. ERICK IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR AT MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM ERICK CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM ERICK COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO
16 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN
STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS,
MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ERICK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE: DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 004 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 93.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 93.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.8N 94.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.6N 96.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.7N 97.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.0N 98.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5N 100.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.8N 102.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 94.2W.
17JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1776
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 171445
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

...ERICK FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OAXACA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 94.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto
Angel to Punta Maldonado. A Hurricane Watch has been issued west
of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued east of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later
today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Erick.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 94.1 West. Erick is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today,
followed by a faster northwestward motion Wednesday through Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach
the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be
near the coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight
or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major
hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to
16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8
inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane
watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Mora


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 171445
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 AM CST TUE JUN 17 2025

ERICK'S STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, WITH A
PARTIAL 0819 UTC AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS POSSIBLY SHOWING THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INNER CORE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.5/35 KT, AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE
IS JUST OVER 40 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.

ERICK APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (300 DEGREES) AT 8 KT. THE STORM IS REACHING
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, WITH A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD CAUSE ERICK TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY, WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SPEED-WISE, THE
CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE AT ITS SLOWEST (AROUND 6 KT) THIS EVENING
BUT THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK OF
ERICK, THE STORM'S PARALLEL TRAJECTORY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WILL
PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN EXACTLY WHICH AREAS RECEIVE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WIND AND SURGE IMPACTS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD, AND GENERALLY LIES BETWEEN THE HCCA AND
TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS IDEAL FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW, WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER
WATERS OF AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WITHIN A MOIST
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF AROUND 80 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDICES
ARE RATHER HIGH, PARTICULAR FOR THE 36- AND 48-HOUR PERIODS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST EXPLICITLY SHOWS RI OCCURRING WHILE ERICK
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH A 48-HOUR INTENSITY
JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST INTENSITY, THERE ARE STILL A FEW MODELS (INCLUDING THE
NORMALLY SKILLFUL HCCA AID) THAT SHOW ERICK REACHING MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH, AND ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY, AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF OAXACA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE GUERRERO COAST.

2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

3. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST, IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 12.3N 94.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 12.8N 94.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 13.6N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 97.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/MORA=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 171443
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.8N 94.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.6N 96.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 97.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 94.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 171144
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
600 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
APPROACHING THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 93.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bahias de Huatulco to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A hurricane warning will likely be required for a portion
of the coast later today. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 93.8 West. Erick is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the
coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches, with maximum totals of 15 inches, across the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero and coastal sections of
Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches
are possible across interior portions of Southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, interior Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Tabasco and Veracruz.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by late Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 11.7N 93.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 93.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.5N 94.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.2N 95.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.0N 96.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.3N 97.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.8N 99.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.3N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.0N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171000Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 93.7W.
17JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1817
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 170848
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 AM CST TUE JUN 17 2025

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. TAFB DETERMINED A DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5
WHICH IS CONFIRMED FROM A SPIRAL BANDING MEASUREMENT OF ROUGHLY A
0.5 WRAP ON ENHANCED IR IMAGES. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS SET AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, AND THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED.

BASED ON THE LATEST CENTER FIXES, THE MOTION REMAINS 300/10 KT, AS
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT BY THE GLOBAL MODELS, AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE COMPLEXITY OF THE TRACK MOVING PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO MEANS THAT SMALL CHANGES IN THE SYSTEM'S
HEADING WILL CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE 60-HOUR NHC
TRACK ERROR IS A LITTLE MORE THAN 60 N MI.

ERICK IS SITUATED IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH
APPEARS TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING, WITH LOW SHEAR,
WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 DEG C AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC HUMIDITIES OF
75-80 PERCENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS
EVEN MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THAT. MOREOVER, THE VARIOUS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDICES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RI
BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS, THE NHC FORECAST FOR THE PEAK STRENGTH OF
ERICK COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, WHERE A HURRICANE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT.

2. ERICK WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

3. A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR WHERE THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 11.9N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 12.5N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 13.2N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 14.0N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 15.3N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 170846
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERICK...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 93.6W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bahia De Huatulco to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Bahia De Huatulco

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 93.6 West. Erick is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the
coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a
hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches, with maximum totals of 15 inches, across the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero and coastal sections of
Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches
are possible across interior portions of Southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, interior Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Tabasco and Veracruz.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by late Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Gibbs/Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 170845
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 93.6W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 93.6W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.5N 94.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.2N 95.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.0N 96.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.3N 97.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 93.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 170531
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
1200 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 93.0W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bahia De Huatulco to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Bahia De Huatulco

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 93.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A slower
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the
coast of southern Mexico by late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a
tropical storm later this morning and a hurricane on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Five-E can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header
MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Five-E may produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal
sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of
Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches,
with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Five-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by late Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin
affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 170359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 93.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.06.2025 10.6N 93.0W WEAK
12UTC 17.06.2025 12.0N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.06.2025 12.4N 96.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.06.2025 13.3N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.06.2025 14.5N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2025 15.6N 100.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2025 16.7N 101.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170359


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 170359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 17.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 93.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.06.2025 0 10.6N 93.0W 1007 23
1200UTC 17.06.2025 12 12.0N 94.9W 1007 25
0000UTC 18.06.2025 24 12.4N 96.4W 1005 24
1200UTC 18.06.2025 36 13.3N 97.5W 1005 30
0000UTC 19.06.2025 48 14.5N 98.9W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.06.2025 60 15.6N 100.1W 1003 39
0000UTC 20.06.2025 72 16.7N 101.2W 1005 35
1200UTC 20.06.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170359


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 170241
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 92.6W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Bahia De
Huatulco to Punta Maldonado and a Tropical Storm Watch east of
Bahia De Huatulco to Salina Cruz.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bahia De Huatulco to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Bahia De Huatulco

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 92.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A
slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
approach the coast of southern Mexico by late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a
tropical storm by early Tuesday and a hurricane on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Five-E can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header
MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Five-E may produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal
sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of
Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches,
with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Five-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by late Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin
affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 170242
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 PM CST MON JUN 16 2025

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, AND DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM NOW MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KT. A SLOWER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
TRACK MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO MEANS THAT
SMALL CHANGES IN THE SYSTEM'S HEADING WILL CAUSE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
ON WHERE AND WHEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. USERS ARE
REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE 60-HOUR NHC TRACK ERROR IS A LITTLE MORE
THAN 60 N MI.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION
WITH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT,
MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES NEAR OR ABOVE 80 PERCENT, AND SSTS OVER 29
C FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY, AND GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A POSSIBILITY. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND SHOWS THE
CYCLONE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY TUESDAY AND A HURRICANE
BEFORE IT REACHES MEXICO.

BASED ON THIS FORECAST, A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
WESTWARD ON TUESDAY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY
TUESDAY AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN MEXICO. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

2. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

3. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 11.2N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 11.8N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 12.5N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 13.3N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 14.2N 96.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 15.5N 97.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 16.6N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/0000Z 18.3N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 170240
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 92.6W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 92.6W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.8N 93.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.5N 94.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.3N 95.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.2N 96.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 97.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.6N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.3N 101.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 92.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 162051
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN AND BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 91.7W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
10.6 North, longitude 91.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
is expected later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to
continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system
is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday and a hurricane on
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header
MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E may produce rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across
coastal sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of
Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches,
with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions could occur along portions of southern
Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin
affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Mora/Cano


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 162052
TCDEP5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 PM CST MON JUN 16 2025

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER SOUTH OF A BURST OF MODEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A PARTIAL OVERPASS OF
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND AFFECT SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY,
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/7 KT, BUT THIS IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF A DEFINED CORE. THE LOW IS MOVING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTROL THE MOTION OF
THE SYSTEM FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS PREDICT THE LOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT, AND THAT MOTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THERE IS NOTICEABLE SPREAD IN THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE GFS AND SOME OF THE REGIONAL
MODELS SHOW A SLOWER MOTION WHILE THE ECMWF AND HCCA ANTICIPATE A
QUICKER FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSEST TO A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER AN AREA OF VERY WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. SHIPS-EC SHOWS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF 55 KT OF STRENGTHENING IN 48 HR, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE COMING DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS THE DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC
FORECAST LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS UPON
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER, IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THE EXACT
LOCATION OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS, AND INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

NHC NOW HAS THE ABILITY TO ISSUE TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY PRODUCTS
FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES UP TO 72 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON LAND WHEN
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF WIND OR STORM
SURGE IMPACTS TO LAND, REGARDLESS OF THE IMMEDIATE NEED FOR
LAND-BASED HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS,
PREVIOUSLY, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES COULD BE ISSUED UP
TO 48 HOURS BEFOREHAND. APPROPRIATE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
STILL BE ISSUED 48 AND 36 HOURS, RESPECTIVELY, BEFORE THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY
AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN MEXICO. HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY..

2. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 10.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 17/1800Z 11.8N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 12.6N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 13.5N 95.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 14.5N 96.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 15.8N 97.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 17.0N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/MORA/CANO=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 162051
TCMEP5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
2100 UTC MON JUN 16 2025

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 91.7W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 91.7W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.8N 93.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.6N 94.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.5N 95.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 96.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.8N 97.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 91.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/MORA/CANO=