Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BARRY-25
in Mexico

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Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 300831
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Barry Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...BARRY DISSIPATES OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 99.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Barry were located near
latitude 23.0 North, longitude 99.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Barry are expected to produce additional
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches, across portions of the Mexican states of San Luis Potosi and
Tamaulipas through today. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with this system, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Barry.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 300831
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Barry Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Barry made landfall around 0100 UTC just south of Tampico, Mexico.
The intensity at landfall is uncertain, but it was likely around 30
or 35 kt when the center reached the coast. Since moving inland,
satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
low-level circulation has dissipated over the rugged terrain of
eastern Mexico. Therefore, Barry is no longer a tropical cyclone and
this is the last NHC advisory.

Although the associated deep convection has decreased, there are
still some small clusters of heavy rain. In fact, radar images show
a mesoscale convective vortex over eastern Mexico associated with
Barry's remaining mid-level circulation. The remnants of Barry will
likely continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of
northeastern Mexico throughout the day, potentially causing flooding
and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 23.0N 99.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 300830
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 99.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 99.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 98.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 99.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 300233
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Satellite and radar imagery show that Barry became less defined
over the past several hours, and this has made the center
difficult to locate. It is estimated that the system made
landfall an hour or two ago, to the south of Tampico Mexico. Deep
convection associated with the cyclone has diminished since earlier
today. Strong westerly shear has apparently caused the system to
weaken to a depression by the time it reached the coast. The
current intensity estimate is set to 30 kt, which is in agreement
with a Dvorak T-number from TAFB.

Barry's initial motion estimate is still northwestward, or 320/8
kt, while being steered by the flow to the west of a high pressure
system over the central Gulf. This general motion is likely to
continue for the next 12-24 hours, taking the system farther
inland. Barry should dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
Mexico on Monday.

The primary impact with Barry remains heavy rainfall and flash
flooding for the upslope areas of eastern Mexico. Please see the
latest forecast rainfall graphic from the Weather Prediction Center
International Desk for more information.

Key Message:

1. Barry or its remnants will produce heavy rainfall across
portions of northeastern Mexico through Monday. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 22.0N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1200Z 22.7N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 300232
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
0300 UTC MON JUN 30 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.8W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.8W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 97.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.7N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 97.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 300232
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Barry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...BARRY HAS MADE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THE EAST
COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 97.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Barry
was located just inland near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 97.8
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barry
should dissipate over eastern Mexico on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Barry can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Barry or its remnant is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi,
and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Barry, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 292341
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...BARRY NEAR THE EASTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6 97.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 97.2 West. Barry is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast
track, the storm is expected to make landfall within the tropical
storm warning area in the next several hours and then move inland
over eastern Mexico later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change is strength is anticipated before Barry makes
landfall, but rapid weakening is expected to begin after the storm
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Barry can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions
of the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas
through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Barry, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the tropical storm warning area during the next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 292036
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Earlier this afternoon, in the final leg exiting Barry in the
northeast quadrant, the Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance sampling
the storm measured a 850 mb flight level wind of 51 kt at 1647 UTC.
This data was the basis for increasing the winds to 40 kt at 18 UTC
intermediate advisory using the standard surface wind reduction
factor. Since the aircraft left the storm, the satellite
presentation has remained quite unimpressive, with the deepest
convection near the center being sheared off to the southeast,
though a larger curved band is attempting to organize well to the
northeast of the small surface vortex. The center has also been
trackable on radar based out of Tampico, Mexico. Based partially off
the earlier aircraft data, the intensity of Barry remains 40 kt this
advisory, but this value is also close to the objective satellite
estimates of 41 kt and 40 kt from ADT and SATCON respectively.

Barry continues to move off to the northwest, with the latest motion
estimated at 315/8 kt, faster than earlier today. The steering flow
is well-established by a low-to-mid level ridge parked in the
central Gulf, which should maintain Barry's northwestward motion
until it makes landfall this evening near Cabo Rojo, between
the cities of Tuxpan and Tampico, Mexico. The latest NHC track is
only slightly more right than the prior track, and is closest to
the interpolated 12 UTC ECMWF track aid this cycle (EMXI).

Time is just about up for Barry to intensify more before it makes
landfall along the eastern Gulf coast of Mexico. Weakening should
begin shortly after the tropical storm moves inland and especially
when it encounters the high rugged terrain located in East-Central
Mexico. This weakening is reflected in the latest NHC intensity
forecast, and Barry will likely dissipate before the end of the day
on Monday, in good agreement with the vast majority of the global
and hurricane regional model guidance.

The primary impact with Barry remains heavy rainfall and flash
flooding for the upslope areas of eastern Mexico. Please see the
latest forecast rainfall graphic from the Weather Prediction Center
International Desk for more information.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Barry will produce heavy rainfall across portions
of northeastern Mexico through Monday. Life-threatening flooding and
mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 21.2N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 22.0N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1800Z 22.8N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 292035
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 96.9W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 96.9W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 96.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N 97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 98.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 96.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 292035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...BARRY NEARING THE EASTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ANTICIPATED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 96.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 96.9 West. Barry is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue this afternoon. On the forecast track, the
storm is expected to make landfall this evening and then move inland
over eastern Mexico later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change is strength is anticipated before Barry makes
landfall, but rapid weakening is expected to begin after the storm
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Barry can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Barry is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi,
and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Barry, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the tropical storm warning area beginning shortly.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 291738
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
100 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...AIRCRAFT FINDS BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ANTICIPATED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 96.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located by aircraft near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 96.6 West.
Barry is moving a little faster toward the northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. On the
forecast track, the storm is expected to make landfall and then move
inland over eastern Mexico later this afternoon or tonight.

Air Force Reconnaissance data indicates that maximum sustained winds
have increase to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
slight intensification is possible before the system reaches the
coast of eastern Mexico by this evening but rapid weakening is
expected after the system moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure earlier estimated from Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance dropsonde data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Barry can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Barry is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and
Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Barry, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the tropical storm warning area beginning shortly.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 291507
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Convective activity with the system has increased somewhat this
morning, though it is not terribly well-organized, thanks in large
part to continued 25-30 kt westerly vertical wind shear over the
system. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance is currently sampling the
system, and has found a better defined center this morning with
fixes also indicating that the system is gaining more latitude.
Within the past 20 minutes, a northeast inbound leg into the storm
found 850 mb flight level winds of 43 kt, and a dropsonde with a
surface wind gust of 39 kt. This recent wind information is the
primary basis for increasing the winds to 35 kt, making the
depression Tropical Storm Barry.

Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is now moving northwestward,
with the motion estimated at 310/5 kt. A narrow low-to-mid level
ridge over the central Gulf should continue to steer the tropical
cyclone in this direction until it makes landfall over eastern
Mexico by the end of today or tonight. The latest NHC track forecast
is just a bit more northwestward compared to the prior one,
mostly accounting for changes in the initial position, but remain
in good agreement with the track guidance consensus. As mentioned
previously, the strongest winds are expected to occur north of the
center along the coast within the tropical storm warning area this
afternoon and tonight.

An upper-level trough located over southern Texas appears partially
responsible for the unfavorable upper-level winds currently over the
tropical storm. This is unlikely to change today, and in fact might
even get worse as upper-level outflow from newly formed Tropical
Storm Flossie in the eastern Pacific becomes more pronounced.
Despite the shear, waters over the Gulf remain warm (28-29 C) and
there is plenty of deep-layer moisture. The upper-level flow pattern
is also quite difluent over the system, so the latest NHC intensity
forecast shows a little more intensification before landfall tonight
over eastern Mexico. This is more or less in line with the regional
hurricane model guidance (e.g., HWRF and HAFS-B). The system should
then weaken quickly as soon as it moves inland overnight with
complete dissipation over the rugged terrain of central Mexico by
the end of the day Monday.

The primary impacts with Barry remain heavy rainfall and flash
flooding for portions of eastern Mexico in upslope terrain as the
system moves inland over the area of over the next day or two.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Barry will produce heavy rainfall across portions
of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 20.4N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 21.2N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 22.0N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 291458
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Convective activity with the system has increased somewhat this
morning, though it is not terribly well-organized, thanks in large
part to continued 25-30 kt westerly vertical wind shear over the
system. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance is currently sampling the
system, and has found a better defined center this morning with
fixes also indicating that the system is gaining more latitude.
Within the past 20 minutes, a northeast inbound leg into the storm
found 850 mb flight level winds of 43 kt, and a dropsonde with a
surface wind gust of 39 kt. This recent wind information is the
primary basis for increasing the winds to 35 kt, making the
depression Tropical Storm Barry.

Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is now moving northwestward,
with the motion estimated at 310/5 kt. A narrow low-to-mid level
ridge over the central Gulf should continue to steer the tropical
cyclone in this direction until it makes landfall over eastern
Mexico by the end of today or tonight. The latest NHC track forecast
is just a bit more northwestward compared to the prior one,
mostly accounting for changes in the initial position, but remain
in good agreement with the track guidance consensus. As mentioned
previously, the strongest winds are expected to occur north of the
center along the coast within the tropical storm warning area this
afternoon and tonight.

An upper-level trough located over southern Texas appears partially
responsible for the unfavorable upper-level winds currently over the
tropical storm. This is unlikely to change today, and in fact might
even get worse as upper-level outflow from newly formed Tropical
Storm Flossie in the eastern Pacific becomes more pronounced.
Despite the shear, waters over the Gulf remain warm (28-29 C) and
there is plenty of deep-layer moisture. The upper-level flow pattern
is also quite difluent over the system, so the latest NHC intensity
forecast shows a little more intensification before landfall tonight
over eastern Mexico. This is more or less in line with the regional
hurricane model guidance (e.g., HWRF and HAFS-B). The system should
then weaken quickly as soon as it moves inland overnight with
complete dissipation over the rugged terrain of central Mexico by
the end of the day Monday.

The primary impacts with Barry remain heavy rainfall and flash
flooding for portions of eastern Mexico in upslope terrain as the
system moves inland over the area of over the next day or two.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Barry will produce heavy rainfall across portions
of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 20.4N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 21.2N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 22.0N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 291455
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM
BARRY...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located by aircraft near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 96.2 West.
Barry is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the
storm is expected to make landfall and then move inland over eastern
Mexico later today or tonight.

Air Force Reconnaissance data indicates that maximum sustained
winds have increase to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A
little more intensification is forecast before the system reaches
the coast of eastern Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after the
system moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance dropsonde data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Barry can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Barry is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and
Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Barry, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the tropical storm warning area beginning this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 291453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 96.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 96.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 97.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 98.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 96.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 291152
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
700 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
MEXICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 96.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A turn to the northwest is expected later today. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico
later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible before the
system reaches the coast of eastern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance data is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and
Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the tropical storm warning area beginning this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 290833
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the
depression over the Bay of Campeche this morning and found that the
system is quite disorganized. In fact, the depression may not even
have a well-defined circulation. Even though the structure of the
system is poorly organized, the aircraft data and ship observations
indicate that the winds have increased some. Based on that
information, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 30 kt.

The depression has been moving a little to the south of the previous
forecast, and the latest initial motion estimate is 290/8 kt. The
system is expected to turn northwestward later today as it tracks
along the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. This
motion should take the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico late today
or tonight. Most of the strong winds are expected to occur to the
north of the center along the coast within the tropical storm
warning area this afternoon through early Monday.

Some slight additional strengthening is possible before the system
moves inland. However, none of the models show much intensification
and given the poor initial structure and limited time over water,
significant strengthening seems highly unlikely. The system is
expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico on
Monday.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Two will produce heavy rainfall across
portions of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 19.9N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 21.6N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 290833
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...HEAVY RAINS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 95.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 95.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected later today. On the
forecast track, the system is expected to move inland over eastern
Mexico late today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible before the system
reaches the coast of eastern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and
Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the tropical storm warning area beginning this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 290832
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 95.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 95.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 95.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.6N 96.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.6N 98.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 95.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 290549
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
100 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h)
and this general motion is anticipated to continue for the next day
or two. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to make
landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico tonight and move inland
early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is expected through tonight, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches
the coast of Mexico. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the
system is forecast to dissipate over eastern Mexico on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible
across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 290232
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 95.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 95.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 96.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.3N 97.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.1N 98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 95.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 290232
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Tropical Depression Two is poorly organized at this time. During
the latter part of the Hurricane Hunter Mission this afternoon, the
aircraft was unable to close off the circulation. Since that time,
conventional satellite imagery and 2235 UTC SSM/IS overpass show
little change in organization, although surface observations
suggest the circulation is still closed. The initial intensity is
held at 25 kt in agreement with current satellite intensity
estimates.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/7. The subtropical
ridge to the east and northeast of the cyclone should steer the
system generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days,
bringing the center to the eastern coast of Mexico near the 24 h
point. There is little change in either the track guidance or the
track forecast since the last advisory. It should be noted that
some erratic motion could occur as the circulation interacts with
the coast of Mexico.

The cyclone is experiencing 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical
shear. However, the upper-level winds are divergent, which should
allow the system to produce significant convection. It is expected
that this convection will lead to a little strengthening despite
the shear, and based on this the depression is forecast to become a
tropical storm near the time of landfall. After landfall, the
cyclone is expected to rapidly weaken over eastern Mexico.

Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm
before landfall, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a
portion of their eastern Gulf coastline of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of
the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

2. Tropical Depression Two will produce heavy rainfall across
portions of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 20.3N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 21.3N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 22.1N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 290232
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 95.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 95.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or
two. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to make
landfall along the Mexico coast Sunday night and move further
inland on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some intensification is expected over the next day or so, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before
reaching the coast of Mexico. Weakening is expected after
landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate over eastern
Mexico on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible
across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning Sunday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 282332
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
700 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 94.7W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 94.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On
the following track the depression is expected to make landfall
along the Mexico coast on Sunday night and move further inland on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before
reaching the coast of Mexico.

The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible
across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning Sunday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 282055
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The area of low pressure that entered in the Bay of Campeche early
this morning (Invest 91L) has slowly improved in organization
through the day. Convection had been mostly bursting on the southern
portion of the circulation, but is more recently starting to fill in
over the northern side. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission
has been sampling the system this afternoon, and they were able to
close off a circulation center, albeit with not a whole lot of wind.
This wind field matches the satellite-derived scatterometer wind
data at 1619 UTC which showed a closed circulation, but with peak
winds of only 24 kt. However, given the improvement in convective
organization with the well-defined circulation noted, advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Depression Two this afternoon, with
maximum sustained winds of 25 kt, matching the T1.5/25-kt estimate
provided by TAFB.

The initial motion of the tropical depression appears to be off to
the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. This motion with a slight bend a
little more northward is expected through the weekend until the
system moves inland over mainland Mexico just after 36 h. The track
guidance overall appears to be in pretty good agreement, though with
the ECMWF on the south end and GFS on the north end of the guidance
envelope. The initial NHC track forecast splits the difference and
is quite close to the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression's wind field is still somewhat broad and in the
formative stages. In addition, the environmental conditions are not
ideal, with some 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance that should prevent more robust
intensification of this cyclone. On the other hand, sea-surface
temperatures are fairly warm (28-29 C) and there is ample mid-level
moisture to sustain the convective activity. Thus, some slow
intensification seems likely, and the intensity forecast shows the
depression becoming a tropical storm before making landfall in
Mexico. However, once inland after 36 h, the system should quickly
weaken and dissipate by the early portion of next week over the
rugged high terrain of central Mexico. This intensity forecast is
largely in good agreement with the consensus aid HCCA and the most
recent HWRF hurricane-regional model run.

Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm
before landfall, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for a portion of their eastern Gulf coastline.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of
the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will
impact portions of northeastern Mexico. This rainfall may produce
isolated flash and urban flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 19.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 19.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 20.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 21.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.1N 98.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 282051
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 94.2W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 94.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On
the following track the depression is expected to make landfall
along the Mexico coast on Sunday night and move further inland on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching
the coast of Mexico.

The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible
across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning Sunday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 282046
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.2W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.2W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.7N 95.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 96.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.9N 97.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.1N 98.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 94.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN