Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FLOSSIE-25
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 040357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.07.2025

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 112.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.07.2025 0 21.5N 112.9W 1004 28
1200UTC 04.07.2025 12 22.7N 114.5W 1008 25
0000UTC 05.07.2025 24 23.8N 116.3W 1011 18
1200UTC 05.07.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040357


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 040357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.07.2025

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 112.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.07.2025 21.5N 112.9W WEAK
12UTC 04.07.2025 22.7N 114.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.07.2025 23.8N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040357


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 20.9N 112.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 112.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.1N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.2N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.1N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.7N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 112.5W.
03JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 759
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 032029
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025

...FLOSSIE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 112.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Flossie was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 112.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10
mph (17 km/h). A general west-northwestward to northwestward
motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady weakening is expected, and the
post-tropical low is forecast to dissipate this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the
post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 032030
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 PM MST THU JUL 03 2025

FLOSSIE HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS
AND NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE,
THE SYSTEM IS NOW CONSIDERED A POST-TROPICAL LOW, AND THIS IS THE
LAST NHC ADVISORY. A 1705 UTC ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 35 KT.

THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION, WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF COOL WATERS AND DRY
AIR SHOULD LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE POST-TROPICAL LOW THIS
WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 21.2N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 24.1N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 032029
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 112.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.1N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 112.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLOSSIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.07.2025

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.07.2025 0 20.5N 111.5W 998 37
0000UTC 04.07.2025 12 21.6N 113.0W 1003 30
1200UTC 04.07.2025 24 22.8N 114.7W 1008 27
0000UTC 05.07.2025 36 23.6N 116.4W 1011 20
1200UTC 05.07.2025 48 23.9N 117.6W 1014 17
0000UTC 06.07.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.3N 114.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.07.2025 0 30.3N 114.7W 1006 27
0000UTC 04.07.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 36.7N 29.6E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.07.2025 0 36.7N 29.6E 1006 33
0000UTC 04.07.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031556


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 031556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.07.2025

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.07.2025 20.5N 111.5W MODERATE
00UTC 04.07.2025 21.6N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.07.2025 22.8N 114.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.07.2025 23.6N 116.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2025 23.9N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031556


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 111.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 111.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.4N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.6N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.6N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.3N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 111.8W.
03JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025

...FLOSSIE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER COOL WATER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 111.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 111.7 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next day
or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical low
later today and a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 031434
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
800 AM MST THU JUL 03 2025

FLOSSIE IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 40 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. FLOSSIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN, WITH THE
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY AND A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 60 H.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NEXT 36 H OR SO, FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL BEND MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 031433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030834
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 AM MST THU JUL 03 2025

FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS
INDICATING INSTRUMENT DERIVED WINDS OF ONLY 40 TO 45 KT NORTH OF
THE CENTER. THE CYCLONEA S STRUCTURE HAS FURTHER DEGRADED, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ABSENT AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW FULLY EXPOSED.
BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8 KT. FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH NO
DEEP CONVECTION, FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 60 HOURS, IF
NOT SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 AM MST THU JUL 03 2025

...FLOSSIE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 111.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 030357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.07.2025

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 110.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.07.2025 19.6N 110.1W STRONG
12UTC 03.07.2025 20.4N 111.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.07.2025 21.8N 113.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.07.2025 23.2N 115.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.07.2025 24.2N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2025 24.4N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030357


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.07.2025

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 110.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.07.2025 0 19.6N 110.1W 979 60
1200UTC 03.07.2025 12 20.4N 111.8W 991 43
0000UTC 04.07.2025 24 21.8N 113.5W 999 33
1200UTC 04.07.2025 36 23.2N 115.3W 1005 29
0000UTC 05.07.2025 48 24.2N 117.2W 1009 22
1200UTC 05.07.2025 60 24.4N 118.8W 1012 19
0000UTC 06.07.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030357


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 109.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 109.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.4N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.4N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.6N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.6N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.1N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 110.4W.
03JUL25. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 876 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030240
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025

...FLOSSIE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 110.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.2 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, with
the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030241
TCDEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
800 PM MST WED JUL 02 2025

FLOSSIE IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING, WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY
RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS, WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AT 4.5/77 KT AND SAB AT 4.0/65 KT. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 56 AND 72 KT. A BLEND OF THESE
DATA SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 KT. FLOSSIE IS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE INDUCED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA REGION. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM DECOUPLES VERTICALLY. THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
WELL-SUPPORTED BY THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS FLOSSIE MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE
THURSDAY, OR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
SATURDAY, AROUND 72 HOURS FROM NOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 19.8N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030239
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 110.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 109.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 109.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.1N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.1N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.1N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.1N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.0N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.7N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 109.9W.
02JUL25. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 904 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
//NNNN
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 022033
TCDEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 PM MST WED JUL 02 2025

FLOSSIE IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WANING AND BECOMING
ASYMMETRIC. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
INDICATE WEAKENING, AND RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE IN
THE 80-90 KT RANGE. BASED ON THIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 85 KT. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN REVISED BASED ON A 1638Z ASCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/8 KT. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT,
FLOSSIE SHOULD LOSE VERTICAL DEPTH AS IT WEAKENS, WITH THE REMNANT
LOW BEING STEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE MEAN
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS FLOSSIE MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. THE CYCLONE IS
PREDICTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 H AS IT STOPS
PRODUCING CONVECTION, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW
THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY
96 H, AND THIS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 19.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 022032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 PM MST WED JUL 02 2025

...FLOSSIE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 109.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB (28.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 022031
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 18.8N 108.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 108.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.7N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.6N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.7N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.7N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.7N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.4N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 109.2W.
02JUL25. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 949 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 021434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025

...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 109.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 109.0 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected the next few days,
with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 021434
TCDEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
800 AM MST WED JUL 02 2025

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE OF FLOSSIE HAS STARTED
TO DEGRADE THIS MORNING, AND THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND
CLOUD FILLED. AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 0916 UTC SHOWS THAT
THE NORTHERN EYEWALL HAS STARTED TO DETERIORATE, AND IS OPEN ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE. THIS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEGUN, AND FLOSSIE
HAS LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY. WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED, DEEP
COLD CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90-100
KT. GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND USING A BLEND OF THE
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/9 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS, AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS.

A STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY. ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK, FLOSSIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR. THUS, THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE QUICKER WEAKENING TREND COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS, AND LIES NEAR THE SIMPLE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW BY 36 HOURS, WITH
DISSIPATION FOLLOWING BY 96 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 19.0N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 021433
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 109.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 109.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 18.4N 107.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 107.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.3N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.2N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.0N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.1N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.0N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.7N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 108.4W.
02JUL25. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 AM MST WED JUL 02 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 108.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THIS
MORNING, WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THE END OF THE
DAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB (28.41 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE FLOSSIE SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 3 INCHES,
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACA!N, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO THROUGH TODAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020835
TCDEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 AM MST WED JUL 02 2025

FLOSSIE REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
THE WELL-DEFINED EYE EVIDENT EARLIER TONIGHT HAS BECOME LESS
DISTINCT AND SOMEWHAT CLOUD FILLED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T5.5/102 KNOTS
FROM TAFB AND T5.0/90 KNOTS FROM SAB. MEANWHILE, THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 96 TO 107 KNOTS AT 06Z. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 100 KNOTS
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FLOSSIE IS HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/9 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED
BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ALIGN WITH
THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE TRENDS, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GDMI, FSSE AND TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE CLOSING
QUICKLY, AS FLOSSIE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE
WATERS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW AROUND
27C. WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, SO WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER
ADEQUATELY WARM WATER, THE INTENSITY SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE. FLOSSIE
WILL MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS, AND INTO A
DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, WITH FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL LOW BY 48 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION FOLLOWING BY 96
HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW A BIT FASTER
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACA!N,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

2. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 18.6N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020834
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.3W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.3W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 108.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020553
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1100 PM MST TUE JUL 01 2025

...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 107.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FLOSSIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER WEDNESDAY, STEADY TO RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES (150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB (28.41 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE FLOSSIE SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 3 INCHES,
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACA!N, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 020356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.07.2025

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 107.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.07.2025 17.6N 107.4W INTENSE
12UTC 02.07.2025 18.6N 109.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 03.07.2025 19.4N 110.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.07.2025 20.5N 111.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.07.2025 21.9N 113.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.07.2025 23.0N 115.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.07.2025 23.9N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2025 24.1N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020356


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 020356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.07.2025

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 107.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.07.2025 0 17.6N 107.4W 958 74
1200UTC 02.07.2025 12 18.6N 109.0W 980 56
0000UTC 03.07.2025 24 19.4N 110.4W 991 43
1200UTC 03.07.2025 36 20.5N 111.8W 996 36
0000UTC 04.07.2025 48 21.9N 113.4W 1001 31
1200UTC 04.07.2025 60 23.0N 115.4W 1006 27
0000UTC 05.07.2025 72 23.9N 117.4W 1009 21
1200UTC 05.07.2025 84 24.1N 119.0W 1012 19
0000UTC 06.07.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020356


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 107.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 107.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.9N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.8N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.6N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.5N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.5N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.3N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.0N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 107.6W.
02JUL25. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1039 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020252
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
800 PM MST TUE JUL 01 2025

...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FLOSSIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER WEDNESDAY, STEADY
TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB (28.41 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE FLOSSIE SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 3 INCHES,
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACA!N, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020252
TCDEP1

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025

After briefly filling, the ragged eye of Flossie has reappeared on
geostationary satellite imagery. An SSMIS microwave satellite image
from 0133 UTC showed that the northern eyewall was slightly eroded.
Since then, infrared satellite observations have shown continuous
deep convective bursts in the northeastern quadrant. Objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates range between 90 to 107
kts. The initial intensity is nudged up to 100 kt based on a blend
of these estimates.

Flossie has about a 12-24 hour window to strengthen in conducive
environmental conditions. Thereafter, global models suggest drier
air and moderate vertical wind sheer could beginning disrupting the
circulation on Wednesday. These conditions should coincide with
the storm crossing the 26 degree isotherm and moving over cooler
waters which should hasten weakening. Flossie is now forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. The track
forecast reasoning has not changed. Flossie should continue moving
west-northwestward or northwestward toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge for the next few days. As the system becomes more
shallow, it should gradually turn westward in the low-level flow.
Only minor changes have been made to the latest official forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán,
Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is
possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020251
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 012343
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
500 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025

...FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 107.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.1 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is anticipated during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. By
Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacn, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 17.5N 106.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 106.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.5N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.5N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.4N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.3N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.1N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.9N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.0N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 107.0W.
01JUL25. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1077 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 012032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025

...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 106.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Watches for the southwestern coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 106.7 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is anticipated during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today and tonight.
By Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 012032
TCDEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 PM MST TUE JUL 01 2025

FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEEP COLD
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EYEWALL. GOES SATELLITE VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO CLEAR OUT AND WARM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 90-95 KT. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS
AND THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 95 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9 KT. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOSSIE
MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO WEAKEN, A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE PREVIOUS, WHICH IS NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

FLOSSIE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SSTS,
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, AND WEAK WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY
COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR IN ABOUT 24 H. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM, WHICH IS ABOVE
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. AFTERWARDS, FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN, WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 72 H, AND A
REMNANT LOW BY 96 H AND DISSIPATED BY DAY 5. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM, BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AIDS AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACA!N,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 17.7N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 012031
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 011744
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1200 PM CST TUE JUL 01 2025

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FLOSSIE BRUSHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 106.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...700 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO ZIHUATANEJO
* NORTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FLOSSIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, FLOSSIE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND FLOSSIE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB (28.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE FLOSSIE SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES,
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACA!N, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA, AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS, FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.07.2025

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 105.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2025 0 16.9N 105.7W 986 57
0000UTC 02.07.2025 12 18.0N 107.2W 983 57
1200UTC 02.07.2025 24 19.3N 108.8W 987 57
0000UTC 03.07.2025 36 20.4N 110.2W 992 42
1200UTC 03.07.2025 48 21.4N 111.1W 996 39
0000UTC 04.07.2025 60 22.7N 112.2W 1000 34
1200UTC 04.07.2025 72 23.8N 113.0W 1006 29
0000UTC 05.07.2025 84 25.3N 113.7W 1010 26
1200UTC 05.07.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 28.9N 71.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.07.2025 168 28.9N 71.8W 1016 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011557


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.07.2025

HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 105.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2025 16.9N 105.7W MODERATE
00UTC 02.07.2025 18.0N 107.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2025 19.3N 108.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2025 20.4N 110.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.07.2025 21.4N 111.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2025 22.7N 112.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2025 23.8N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.07.2025 25.3N 113.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.07.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 28.9N 71.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.07.2025 28.9N 71.8W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011557


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 105.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 105.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.1N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.0N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.8N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.6N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.4N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.2N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.0N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 106.0W.
01JUL25. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1127 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 011438
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
900 AM CST TUE JUL 01 2025

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS RAINBANDS AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 105.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO ZIHUATANEJO
* NORTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FLOSSIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, FLOSSIE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND FLOSSIE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB (28.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE FLOSSIE SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES,
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACA!N, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA, AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS, FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 011438
TCDEP1

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

Flossie is still intensifying, with conventional satellite imagery
showing a curved band pattern with cloud tops colder than -80C and a
formative eye. In addition, recent microwave overpasses show an eye
and eyewall present under the convective overcast. The latest
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are generally
in the 75-85 kt range, and based on current trends the initial
intensity is set at 85 kt.

The initial motion is 305/9 kt. A general northwestward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next 3-4 days as Flossie moves toward a weakness
in the subtropical ridge. After that time, the cyclone or its
remnants is forecast to turn westward as they become steered more by
the low-level flow. The new forecast track, which generally splits
the difference between the HCCA corrected consensus and the other
consensus models, is a little north of the previous forecast through
72 h and a little south of the previous track after that time.

The wind shear and moisture are forecast to be favorable for
strengthening as long as Flossie remains over warm water. While
the hurricane is starting to move over decreasing sea surface
temperatures, the intensity guidance suggests it will take about
24 h to reach water cold enough to stop intensification. Based on
this, the new intensity forecast calls for another 24 h of
strengthening. After that, Flossie is expected to rapidly weaken,
with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h and a remnant low by
96 h. The forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance
for the first 36 h and near the intensity consensus for the rest of
the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should continue to bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding is possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next
several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 17.4N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 18.1N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 19.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 20.6N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 011437
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.9W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.9W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.1N 107.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 110.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 105.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 011131
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
600 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.6 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with
a slight decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Flossie
should move farther away from southwestern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (145 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn, Colima, and
Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, through this
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 104.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 104.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.5N 106.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.4N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.2N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.0N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.9N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.9N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.7N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.0N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 105.2W.
01JUL25. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1172 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 010847
TCDEP1

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

Flossie continues to strengthen early this morning, evident by an
expanding central dense overcast (CDO) over the low-level center of
the cyclone. A couple recent scatterometer passes at 0337z and
0428z helped in locating the center underneath the CDO, and assisted
with the refinement of the 34 and 50 knot wind radii. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots from
both SAB and TAFB. The objective intensity estimates ranged from 69
to 79 knots at 06z. Based on a blend of these estimates, and taking
into account the improved satellite presentation during the past few
hours, the initial intensity has been raised to 75 knots for this
advisory.

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This
motion is expected to continue during the next several days with a
slight decrease in forward speed, as the cyclone is steered into a
weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. The
track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely
aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus
aids as well as the latest EC-AIFS run.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during
the next 24 to 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of
28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear.
The latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 40 percent
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast
reflects this. Rapid weakening will then begin by 48 hours as
Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain
dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical
low by 72 hours and a remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity
forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS
and NNIC.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 16.9N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 010844
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 105.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 105.1 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. On the forecast
track, Flossie should move farther away from southwestern Mexico
today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and
Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, through this
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 010843
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 105.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 010544
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
1200 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.7 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, with a gradual slowing in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and
Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, overnight
through this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 103.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 103.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.4N 105.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.2N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.9N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.5N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.0N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.0N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.0N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.3N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 104.5W.
01JUL25. HURRICANE 06E (FLOSSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1212 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 010310 CCA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
900 PM CST MON JUN 30 2025

CORRECTED KEY MESSAGE 1 FROM TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FLOSSIE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS
EVENING, WITH A HINT OF AN EYE NOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN
AT T4.0/65 KNOTS AND T3.5/55 KNOTS FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.
THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 56 TO 62 KNOTS AT 00Z
AND HAVE SINCE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 62 AND 74 KNOTS. BASED ON THESE
DATA AND THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE, MAKING
FLOSSIE A HURRICANE.

FLOSSIE IS HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/09 KNOTS. THIS
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH A
BLEND OF THE LATEST HCCA, TVCE AND FSSE CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28/29C,
ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN
FACT, THE LATEST SHIPS RI PROBABILITIES SHOW A GREATER THAN 60%
CHANCE OF A 25-KNOT INCREASE IN 24 HOURS, AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
THROUGH 36 HOURS, WITH THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BY 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. RATHER RAPID WEAKENING WILL THEN
FOLLOW AS FLOSSIE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS AND A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT
96 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY AIDS, CLOSEST TO SHIPS AND NNIC, WHICH SHOW RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE SHOULD BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO, MICHOACA!N, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
IN STEEP TERRAIN.

2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 16.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 010259
TCDEP1

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

The satellite presentation of Flossie has continued to improve this
evening, with a hint of an eye now possibly developing in the past
hour or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in
at T4.0/65 knots and T3.5/55 knots from SAB and TAFB respectively.
The objective intensity estimates range from 56 to 62 knots at 00z
and have since increased to between 62 and 74 knots. Based on these
data and the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity
has been raised to 65 knots for this advisory package, making
Flossie a hurricane.

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in
the mid-level ridge to the northwest. The track forecast is very
close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a
blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE and FSSE consensus aids.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during
the next 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C,
abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. In
fact, the latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 60%
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official
forecast reflects this. Additional strengthening is forecast
through 36 hours, with the cyclone beginning to weaken by 48 hours
as it moves over cooler water. Rather rapid weakening will then
follow as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins
to entrain dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a
post-tropical low by 72 hours and a post-tropical remnant low at
96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the
intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC, which show rapid
intensification.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly
in steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, tonight
through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 16.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 010258
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
900 PM CST MON JUN 30 2025

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO ZIHUATANEJO
* NORTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FLOSSIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB (29.18 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES, ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACA!N, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP
TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA, AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS, TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 010258
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 302356
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
600 PM CST MON JUN 30 2025

...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 103.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO ZIHUATANEJO
* NORTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES,
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO,
MICHOACA!N, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA, AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS, TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 302041
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

Flossie's satellite presentation has continued to improve throughout
the day, with convective cold cloud tops near -80C over the
low-level center, and well-defined curve banding features. An
earlier scatterometer pass around 1629 UTC showed a peak wind of 47
kt, and helped to refine the current tropical-storm-force wind
radii. Latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
range from 45 to 55 kt, including a T/3.5 from TAFB. Given the
satellite trends, the intensity is set to 55 kt closes to UW-CIMSS
ADT and the TAFB Dvorak estimates.

The storm is within a favorable environment to continue
strengthening, current SSTs are around 29-30C, with low vertical
wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of
the guidance envelope and now has a peak intensity of 90 kt, closest
to the regional hurricane HAFS models. In about 48 h, environmental
conditions become increasingly more hostile, with drier air and
cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady
weakening trend. By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone as the system will struggle to produce
convection within the harsh environment.

The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 305/10 kt.
A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the
forecast period steered by a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast
was nudged slightly to the left and lies closest to the HCCA
corrected consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly
in steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, later today
through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 16.2N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 302040
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
300 PM CST MON JUN 30 2025

...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 103.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO ZIHUATANEJO
* NORTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES,
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO,
MICHOACA!N, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA, AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS, TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 302040
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 301742
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
1200 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 103.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.1 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest to
west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a
hurricane tonight or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (145 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall
could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through
Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 301556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 98.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.06.2025 22.0N 98.4W WEAK
00UTC 01.07.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 102.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.06.2025 15.6N 102.4W WEAK
00UTC 01.07.2025 16.9N 103.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.07.2025 17.8N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.07.2025 19.1N 107.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2025 19.8N 109.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2025 19.7N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2025 20.1N 111.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2025 20.5N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2025 21.4N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301556


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 301556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 98.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2025 0 22.0N 98.4W 1010 28
0000UTC 01.07.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 102.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2025 0 15.6N 102.4W 1002 37
0000UTC 01.07.2025 12 16.9N 103.9W 1001 38
1200UTC 01.07.2025 24 17.8N 105.7W 1000 45
0000UTC 02.07.2025 36 19.1N 107.9W 1000 46
1200UTC 02.07.2025 48 19.8N 109.5W 1000 40
0000UTC 03.07.2025 60 19.7N 110.4W 1002 29
1200UTC 03.07.2025 72 20.1N 111.3W 1005 24
0000UTC 04.07.2025 84 20.5N 112.1W 1006 23
1200UTC 04.07.2025 96 21.4N 112.9W 1010 18
0000UTC 05.07.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301556


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 301520
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.6 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest
to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a
hurricane tonight or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall
could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through
Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 301512
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 103.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N 106.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 108.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.9N 110.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 112.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 102.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/NEPAUL=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 301439
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

Flossie continues to consolidate this morning with GOES-19 infrared
imagery showing deep convection bursting over the low-level center.
A SSMIS microwave pass from 1117 UTC this morning depicts the system
continues to become better organized, with curved banding and
potentially an inner core trying to develop. Latest Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased this advisory
to T/3.0. UW-CIMMS objective estimates range from 45 to 53 kt. Given
the improving structure and recent satellite trends, the initial
intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory.

Environmental conditions are favorable for steady to rapid
intensification, with low vertical wind shear, plentiful moisture,
and warm SSTs. The latest NHC forecast explicitly forecasts rapid
intensification over the next 24 hours, and it is noted that some
SHIPS guidance shows a 50-65 percent chance of a 55kt increase in
the next 48 h. The NHC peak intensity forecast remains on the higher
end of the intensity guidance near the HCCA corrected consensus. In
about 48-60 hours, environmental conditions become increasingly less
favorable along the forecast track, with drier air and cooler sea
surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend.
By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone as
the system will struggle to produce convection within the harsh
environment.

The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 310/9 kt.
A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the
forecast period, as Flossie is steered around the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast near the previous and
lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aids.

Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A
shift in track to the right of the official forecast could bring
more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly
in steep terrain.

2. A tropical storm warning is in effect for a portion of
southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected
late today through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 15.6N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 16.5N 103.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.2N 106.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 19.2N 108.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 20.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 23.0N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 05/1200Z 24.5N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 301141
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
600 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

...FLOSSIE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 102.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.1 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion should continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a
hurricane tonight or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall may
lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially
in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through
Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
300 AM CST MON JUN 30 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST...
...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO
PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO
* NORTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY-TO-RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES,
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO,
MICHOACN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA, AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS, LATE TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 300837
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
300 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

A 30/0357 UTC ASCAT-B pass over Flossie showed a sizable area of
30-35 kt winds in the NE quadrant, with 25-30 kt winds wrapping into
portions of the SE and NW quadrants. The ASCAT data also indicates
that the RMW has contracted to about 40 n mi. SSMIS and GMI
microwave passes between 00-03Z were also helpful in diagnosing the
position and structure of Flossie. Since the time of the
above-mentioned microwave images, GOES satellite imagery indicates
that Flossie has started to become better organized, and it appears
that the low-level center is likely underneath the northern portion
of the central convective area, which has increased in size and
contains a large area of cloud tops colder than -80 degrees C. The
initial intensity is set to 40 kt due to the improved organization
since the time of the ASCAT pass. This estimate is also in line
with the latest objective intensity estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT,
AiDT and DPRINT, which are running in the 40-45 kt range.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to remain favorable
for intensification for at least another 48 h as Flossie moves
through an environment of warm water, weak vertical wind shear, and
a moist mid-level troposphere. Rapid intensification remains a
distinct possibility over the next day or two. The NHC forecast
continues to show steady to rapid intensification. The official
forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope.
Beyond 48 h, Flossie should gradually encounter a dry and stable
airmass and cross over cooling waters which will lead to steady
weakening.

The initial motion estimate is toward the northwest, or 315/9 kt. A
motion between west-northwest and northwest should continue for the
next few days as Flossie moves through a break in the subtropical
ridge. The NHC track forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous
official forecast, and lies in between the simple and corrected
consensus aids.

The latest NHC forecast has necessitated the issuance of a Tropical
Storm Warning for portions of the coast of Mexico, as
tropical-storm-force wind speed probabilities are in the 40 to 50
percent range for portions of the area. Residents of Mexico should
stay updated on the latest forecast. A shift in track to the right
of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the
coast of southwestern Mexico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán,
Colima, and Jalisco through mid-week. Life-threatening flooding and
mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain.

2. A tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of
southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected
late today through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 15.0N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 19.4N 108.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 22.7N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 05/0600Z 24.9N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 300836
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.8W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE 15SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.8W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.4N 108.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.7N 111.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.9N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 101.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300552
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
1200 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

...FLOSSIE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 101.3W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 101.3 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (14 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion should continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a
hurricane tonight or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacn, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area late today through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 300357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 97.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.06.2025 21.7N 97.5W WEAK
12UTC 30.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 100.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.06.2025 13.5N 100.6W WEAK
12UTC 30.06.2025 15.5N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2025 16.6N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.07.2025 17.5N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.07.2025 17.9N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2025 17.8N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2025 18.1N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2025 19.6N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2025 21.1N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2025 22.3N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2025 23.6N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2025 24.5N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300357


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.06.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 97.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.06.2025 0 21.7N 97.5W 1009 28
1200UTC 30.06.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 100.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.06.2025 0 13.5N 100.6W 1004 30
1200UTC 30.06.2025 12 15.5N 102.1W 1003 34
0000UTC 01.07.2025 24 16.6N 104.5W 1001 34
1200UTC 01.07.2025 36 17.5N 106.6W 1002 36
0000UTC 02.07.2025 48 17.9N 108.5W 1001 35
1200UTC 02.07.2025 60 17.8N 109.4W 1002 33
0000UTC 03.07.2025 72 18.1N 109.5W 1003 23
1200UTC 03.07.2025 84 19.6N 110.4W 1003 27
0000UTC 04.07.2025 96 21.1N 111.6W 1004 25
1200UTC 04.07.2025 108 22.3N 112.9W 1007 23
0000UTC 05.07.2025 120 23.6N 114.0W 1009 20
1200UTC 05.07.2025 132 24.5N 115.1W 1013 16
0000UTC 06.07.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300357


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 300233
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
900 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

Flossie is holding steady as a broad tropical storm. New bursts of
deep convection are forming in the southern semicircle with cloud
top temperatures near -80 degrees C. Earlier microwave imagery
showed the circulation open to the east, indicating a possible dry
air intrusion. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range between 31 to 45 kt, with the majority near 35 kt.
Therefore, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm is expected to strengthen during the next couple
of days. Warm waters, low vertical wind shear, and abundant
mid-level moisture should allow for Flossie to strengthen. Rapid
intensification indices are relatively high compared to climatology,
and the official NHC forecast shows periods of steady-to-rapid
intensification in the next two days. However, the forecast lies on
the high end of the intensity guidance envelope. Beyond the peak at
48 h, Flossie should gradually encounter a dry and stable airmass
and cross over cooling waters which will lead to steady weakening.

The current motion is westward-northwestward at 295/7 kt. Flossie is
forecast to move west-northwestward with a turn towards the
northwest anticipated soon around the western edge of a subtropical
ridge. The track guidance envelope shifted noticeably westward.
The latest track forecast shifted to the left of the previous
advisory, and lies on the right side of the envelope, closest to the
HCCA corrected consensus aid.

Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A
shift in track to the right of the official forecast could bring
more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán,
Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep
terrain.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and
tropical storm warnings could be required on Monday for a portion
of the coast of southern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 14.0N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.8N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 16.0N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.2N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.1N 106.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 19.1N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 22.0N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 24.0N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
900 PM CST SUN JUN 29 2025

...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 101.0W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY-TO-RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES,
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO,
MICHOACA!N, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 292342
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
600 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 100.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 100.7 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area late Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 292037
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
300 PM CST SUN JUN 29 2025

EARLIER SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED FLOSSIE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER,
RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BANDING HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE BROKEN
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AS FLOSSIE IS STILL TRYING TO ORGANIZE
AND CONSOLIDATE. A 1600 UTC METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, HOWEVER WAS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION, AND SATELLITE-DERIVED
WINDS WERE AROUND 31 KT. USING THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T2.5, FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB,
THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FLOSSIE IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LOW TO
MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED, STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES REMAIN
ELEVATED IN LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE, HOWEVER RI IS NOT EXPLICITLY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS, CLOSEST TO THE HURRICANE REGIONAL AIDS, BUT LIES
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
295/7 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A
TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR
THE PREVIOUS, AND LIES BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND HCCA CORRECTED
CONSENSUS AIDS.

RESIDENTS OF MEXICO SHOULD STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST. A
TRACK EVEN A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD
BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, MICHOACN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

2. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR A
PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 292036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 100.4W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 100.4 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacn, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area late Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 292035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 100.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 100.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 291739
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
1200 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 100.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...370 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 100.1 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area late Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 291441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

Convection has continued to become better organized this morning,
with curved banding to the north of the low-level center. Recent
infrared satellite imagery depicts that convection is bursting near
the low-level center with cold cloud tops near -80C. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5, from both TAFB and
SAB. Using these estimates and the recent satellite trends, the
intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the sixth
named system in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Flossie.

Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening
with warm SSTs near 30C, moist mid-levels and low to moderate wind
shear. As the system continues to become better organized, the
latest NHC forecast now depicts steady strengthening, with the storm
becoming a hurricane in about 36 h. While not explicitly forecast,
there are some above normal SHIPS rapid intensification (RI)
probabilities and there is potential for RI, which will have to be
monitored in subsequent forecasts. The NHC intensity forecast
remains near the higher end of the guidance envelope near the latest
HCCA corrected consensus aids.

The current motion is estimated to be westward around 280/8 kt,
although as the inner core continues to develop there could be some
short-term track adjustments. The storm is forecast to begin to move
west-northwestward later today then northwestward around the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is
nudged slightly to the right, in between the simple consensus HCCA
corrected consensus.

Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A
track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could
bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán,
Colima and Jalisco through early next week. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep
terrain.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and
tropical storm warnings could be required later today or tonight for
a portion of the coast of southern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 13.4N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.1N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 15.2N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 16.3N 103.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 17.5N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 19.8N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 23.9N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 291440
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
900 AM CST SUN JUN 29 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 99.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE MONDAY
OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES,
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO,
MICHOACA!N, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 291439
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 99.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.1N 100.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.2N 102.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.3N 103.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 105.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.8N 108.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.9N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 99.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 291139
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
600 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 99.7W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Depression Six-E.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 99.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin later today
and continue through the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast today, followed by
steady to rapid strengthening thereafter, and the system is expected
to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Six-E is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Six-E, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep6.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Six-E will begin
increasing along the coast of southwestern Mexico Monday and
continue into mid-week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 290833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORMS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 99.5W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
along the southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Depression Six-E.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 99.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin later today
and continue through the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day,
followed by steady to rapid strengthening thereafter, and the
depression is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Six-E is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Six-E, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep6.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Six-E will begin
increasing along the coast of southwestern Mexico Monday and
continue into mid-week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 290834
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
300 AM CST SUN JUN 29 2025

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A 29/0328 UTC ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED, CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND
25 KT. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T-2.5 AND T-2.0, RESPECTIVELY. THE
DISTURBANCE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
HAS A LARGE RMW. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS, A MOIST MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE AND LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DAYS AS IT
PARALLELS THE COAST OF MEXICO. DUE TO THE LARGE RMW, ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 H. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY ONCE IT ESTABLISHES A STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CORE, AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR
BY TUESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY AT 60-72 H, AND CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE. BY 96 H, THE CYCLONE
SHOULD REACH COOLER WATER, AND RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY IN 4 TO 5
DAYS, WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AROUND DAY 5.

THE CURRENT MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR
270/10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY MOVE IN A
DIRECTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. THE NHC
FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSE TO THE
TVCE CONSENSUS.

RESIDENTS OF MEXICO SHOULD STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST. A
TRACK EVEN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD
BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 13.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 290832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 99.5W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 99.5W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 99.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 99.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=