Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for MUN-25 Off-shore from 01 Jul 2025 18:00 UTC to 08 Jul 2025 00:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 080300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN) FINAL WARNING NR 026A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN) FINAL WARNING NR 026A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 39.3N 149.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 39.3N 149.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 41.8N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 43.3N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 39.9N 149.9E.
08JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370NM
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED AS THE
COOLER SEA SURFACE CAN NO LONGER SUPPORT A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS ENTERING A TRANSITION PHASE TO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.
STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS ARE SHOWING THE EARLY SIGNS OF RELAXING AND
EXPANDING AWAY FROM THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
BUT ENOUGH MOMENTUM EXISTS TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
THE JETSTREAM EXTENDS OVER THE KURILS SO THE SYSTEM HAS TOO FAR TO GO
BEFORE IT UNDERGOES THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS TYPICAL OF
WESTPAC. TD MUN IS COOLING FROM BELOW AND WILL LOSE ITS
WARM CORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT GETS TO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED STORM STATE REMARKS TO
REFLECT SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND DISSIPATION.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED AT 39N 149E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
MUN (2503) HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED AT 39N, 149E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME LOW FORMER TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 39N 149E
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 998HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 38.6N 148.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 080900UTC 42.0N 152.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 082100UTC 45.1N 158.0E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 38.0N 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 38.0N 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.6N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 43.5N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 45.6N 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 148.9E.
07JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250707202649
2025070718 04W MUN 025 02 010 13 SATL 060
T000 380N 1483E 025
T012 406N 1508E 025
T024 435N 1565E 025
T036 456N 1622E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 38.0N 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 38.0N 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.6N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 43.5N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 45.6N 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 148.9E.
07JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070606 327N1495E 50
0425070606 327N1495E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070618 341N1494E 45
0425070700 350N1489E 40
0425070706 358N1484E 35
0425070712 367N1480E 30
0425070718 380N1483E 25
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 38.0N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY
A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 38.0N 148.1E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 080600UTC 40.9N 150.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 081800UTC 44.8N 157.2E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 998 HPA
AT 38.0N 148.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 40.9N 150.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 44.8N 157.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 37.3N 148.0E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 080300UTC 39.8N 149.3E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 081500UTC 43.3N 154.9E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 36.6N, 148.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250707132723
2025070712 04W MUN 024 02 345 09 SATL 060
T000 367N 1480E 030
T012 391N 1489E 030
T024 410N 1521E 025
T036 432N 1562E 025
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 36.7N 148.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 36.7N 148.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 39.1N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 41.0N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 43.2N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 148.2E.
07JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373
NM EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070606 327N1495E 50
0425070606 327N1495E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070618 341N1494E 45
0425070700 350N1489E 40
0425070706 358N1483E 35
0425070712 367N1480E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 36.6N 148.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 080000UTC 39.3N 148.6E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 081200UTC 42.6N 152.6E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 998 HPA
AT 36.6N 148.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 39.3N 148.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 42.6N 152.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 36.2N 148.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 072100UTC 38.5N 148.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 080900UTC 41.4N 152.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 090600UTC 47.0N 165.8E 115NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250707074835
2025070706 04W MUN 023 02 330 09 SATL 060
T000 358N 1483E 035 R034 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 379N 1482E 030
T024 401N 1497E 025
T036 422N 1523E 025
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 35.8N 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.8N 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 37.9N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.1N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 42.2N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 36.3N 148.3E.
07JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070606 327N1495E 50
0425070606 327N1495E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070618 341N1494E 45
0425070700 350N1489E 40
0425070706 358N1483E 35

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 35.7N, 148.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 35.7N 148.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 071800UTC 37.8N 148.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 080600UTC 40.5N 150.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 090600UTC 47.0N 165.8E 115NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
996 HPA
AT 35.7N 148.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 37.8N 148.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 40.5N 150.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 47.0N 165.8E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 990 HPA
AT 35.3N 148.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 37.4N 148.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 40.0N 149.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 35.3N 148.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 071500UTC 37.4N 148.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 080300UTC 40.0N 149.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 090000UTC 45.8N 162.7E 115NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR STS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MUN IS LOCATED AT 34.8N, 148.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. HOWEVER, IT MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250707012605
2025070700 04W MUN 022 02 340 10 SATL 060
T000 350N 1489E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 369N 1482E 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 392N 1489E 030
T036 415N 1509E 025
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 35.0N 148.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.0N 148.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 36.9N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 39.2N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 41.5N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 148.7E.
07JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 452 NM
EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070606 327N1495E 50
0425070606 327N1495E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070618 341N1493E 50
0425070618 341N1493E 50
0425070700 350N1489E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 34.8N 148.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 071200UTC 36.7N 148.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 080000UTC 39.2N 148.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 090000UTC 45.8N 162.7E 115NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 990 HPA
AT 34.8N 148.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 36.7N 148.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 39.2N 148.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 45.8N 162.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 062100
WARNING 062100.
WARNING VALID 072100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 990 HPA
AT 33.9N 149.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 37.9N 148.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 33.9N 149.7E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 37.9N 148.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 081800UTC 43.1N 157.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR STS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MUN IS LOCATED AT 33.8N, 149.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250706192805
2025070618 04W MUN 021 02 340 06 SATL 060
T000 341N 1493E 050 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 358N 1485E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 380N 1484E 030
T036 404N 1503E 025
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 34.1N 149.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 149.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.8N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 38.0N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.4N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 149.1E.
06JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070606 327N1495E 50
0425070606 327N1495E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070618 341N1493E 50
0425070618 341N1493E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 33.8N 149.7E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 37.8N 148.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 081800UTC 43.1N 157.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 990 HPA
AT 33.8N 149.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 37.8N 148.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 43.1N 157.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 33.6N 149.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 37.4N 147.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 081200UTC 41.5N 153.3E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 061500
WARNING 061500.
WARNING VALID 071500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 990 HPA
AT 33.6N 149.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 37.4N 147.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR STS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MUN IS LOCATED AT 33.3N, 149.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250706133438
2025070612 04W MUN 020 02 010 08 SATL 060
T000 335N 1496E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 351N 1490E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 371N 1484E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 393N 1490E 025
T048 414N 1515E 025
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 33.5N 149.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.5N 149.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 35.1N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 37.1N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 39.3N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 41.4N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 149.4E.
06JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070606 327N1494E 50
0425070606 327N1494E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
0425070612 335N1496E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 33.3N 149.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 37.0N 148.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 081200UTC 41.5N 153.3E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 990 HPA
AT 33.3N 149.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 37.0N 148.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 41.5N 153.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 060900
WARNING 060900.
WARNING VALID 070900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 990 HPA
AT 32.8N 149.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 36.7N 148.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 32.8N 149.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 36.7N 148.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 080600UTC 41.2N 151.0E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250706072759
2025070606 04W MUN 019 02 020 05 SATL 060
T000 327N 1494E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T012 343N 1493E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 361N 1484E 040 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 383N 1484E 030
T048 401N 1499E 025
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 32.7N 149.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.7N 149.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.3N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 36.1N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 38.3N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.1N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 149.4E.
06JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 481 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070518 318N1487E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070600 322N1492E 50
0425070606 327N1494E 50
0425070606 327N1494E 50

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MUN IS LOCATED AT 32.5N, 149.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 32.7N 149.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.7N 149.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.3N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 36.1N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 38.3N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.1N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 149.4E.
06JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 481 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DANAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2503 MUN (2503) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 32.5N 149.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 36.2N 148.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 080600UTC 41.2N 151.0E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 32.5N 149.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 36.2N 148.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 41.2N 151.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 32.4N 149.2E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070300UTC 35.4N 148.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 080000UTC 39.3N 148.8E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 060300
WARNING 060300.
WARNING VALID 070300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 992 HPA
AT 32.4N 149.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 35.4N 148.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 32.1N, 149.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND LOWER SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250706012859
2025070600 04W MUN 018 02 035 06 SATL 030
T000 322N 1491E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 334N 1495E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 350N 1488E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 370N 1480E 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 391N 1484E 030
T072 420N 1526E 025
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 32.2N 149.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.2N 149.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.4N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 35.0N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 37.0N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 39.1N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 42.0N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 32.5N 149.2E.
06JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070518 317N1487E 50
0425070518 317N1487E 50
0425070600 322N1491E 50
0425070600 322N1491E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 32.2N 149.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.2N 149.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.4N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 35.0N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 37.0N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 39.1N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 42.0N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 32.5N 149.2E.
06JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DANAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 32.1N 149.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 35.0N 149.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 080000UTC 39.3N 148.8E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 992 HPA
AT 32.1N 149.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 35.0N 149.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 39.3N 148.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 052100
WARNING 052100.
WARNING VALID 062100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 992 HPA
AT 32.0N 149.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 34.3N 149.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 32.0N 149.0E GOOD
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 34.3N 149.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 071800UTC 37.8N 147.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 081800UTC 42.9N 155.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 31.9N, 148.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 31.7N 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 32.7N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.1N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.8N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 37.9N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 41.8N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 148.9E.
05JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DANAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250705193142
2025070518 04W MUN 017 02 055 07 SATL 030
T000 317N 1487E 050 R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 327N 1496E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 341N 1495E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 358N 1486E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 379N 1481E 030
T072 418N 1513E 025
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 31.7N 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 32.7N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.1N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.8N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 37.9N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 41.8N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 148.9E.
05JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070512 313N1480E 50
0425070518 317N1487E 50
0425070518 317N1487E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 31.9N 148.7E GOOD
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 33.9N 149.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 071800UTC 37.8N 147.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 081800UTC 42.9N 155.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 992 HPA
AT 31.9N 148.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 33.9N 149.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 37.8N 147.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 42.9N 155.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 051500
WARNING 051500.
WARNING VALID 061500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 31.3N 148.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 33.4N 149.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 31.3N 148.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 33.4N 149.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 071200UTC 36.3N 147.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 081200UTC 41.1N 150.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250705133640
2025070512 04W MUN 016 02 075 08 SATL 060
T000 313N 1480E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 320N 1493E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 331N 1496E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 345N 1489E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 363N 1479E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 402N 1489E 025
T096 426N 1556E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 31.3N 148.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 148.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 32.0N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.1N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.5N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 36.3N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 40.2N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 42.6N 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 148.3E.
05JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 55
0425070506 311N1471E 55
0425070512 313N1480E 55
0425070512 313N1480E 55
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 31.1N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 31.1N 148.1E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 33.0N 149.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 071200UTC 36.3N 147.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 081200UTC 41.1N 150.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 31.1N 148.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 33.0N 149.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 36.3N 147.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 41.1N 150.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 050900
WARNING 050900.
WARNING VALID 060900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 31.0N 147.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 32.8N 149.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 31.0N 147.6E FAIR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 32.8N 149.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 070600UTC 35.2N 147.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 080600UTC 39.7N 148.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 090600UTC 43.2N 154.6E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250705075603
2025070506 04W MUN 015 02 090 07 SATL 060
T000 311N 1471E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T012 316N 1485E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T024 324N 1493E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T036 338N 1491E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T048 354N 1481E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 393N 1483E 025
T096 420N 1533E 020
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 31.1N 147.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 147.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.6N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 32.4N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 33.8N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.4N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 39.3N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 42.0N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 147.4E.
05JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070418 308N1459E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070500 311N1463E 50
0425070506 311N1471E 55
0425070506 311N1471E 55

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 31.1N 147.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 147.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.6N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 31.1N, 147.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 31.1N 147.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 32.5N 149.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 35.2N 147.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 39.7N 148.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 43.2N 154.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 31.1N 147.0E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 32.5N 149.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 070600UTC 35.2N 147.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 080600UTC 39.7N 148.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 090600UTC 43.2N 154.6E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 050300
WARNING 050300.
WARNING VALID 060300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 31.1N 146.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 32.4N 149.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 31.1N 146.7E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 32.4N 149.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 070000UTC 34.6N 148.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 080000UTC 38.7N 147.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 090000UTC 42.1N 154.0E 175NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 31.0N, 146.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250705012901
2025070500 04W MUN 014 02 040 04 SATL 030
T000 310N 1463E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 315N 1477E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 321N 1488E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 332N 1492E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 346N 1485E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 384N 1475E 030
T096 408N 1517E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 31.0N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0N 146.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.5N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 32.1N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.2N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.6N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 38.4N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 40.8N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 146.6E.
05JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 307N1460E 50
0425070418 307N1460E 50
0425070500 310N1463E 55
0425070500 310N1463E 55
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 31.0N 146.2E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 32.0N 149.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 070000UTC 34.6N 148.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 080000UTC 38.7N 147.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 090000UTC 42.1N 154.0E 175NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 050000
WARNING 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 31.0N 146.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 32.0N 149.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 34.6N 148.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 38.7N 147.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 42.1N 154.0E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 042100
WARNING 042100.
WARNING VALID 052100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 31.1N 146.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 31.8N 149.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 31.1N 146.2E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 31.8N 149.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 061800UTC 33.7N 149.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 071800UTC 37.6N 147.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 081800UTC 41.6N 152.4E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 31.1N, 145.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250704194042
2025070418 04W MUN 013 02 050 08 SATL 060
T000 307N 1460E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 312N 1473E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 318N 1487E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 327N 1495E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 340N 1493E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 378N 1481E 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 406N 1530E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 30.7N 146.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 146.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.2N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.8N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 32.7N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.0N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 37.8N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 40.6N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 146.3E.
04JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070406 299N1450E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070412 302N1453E 50
0425070418 307N1460E 50
0425070418 307N1460E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 31.1N 145.8E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 31.6N 148.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 061800UTC 33.7N 149.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 071800UTC 37.6N 147.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 081800UTC 41.6N 152.4E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 041800
WARNING 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 31.1N 145.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 31.6N 148.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 33.7N 149.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 37.6N 147.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 41.6N 152.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 041500
WARNING 041500.
WARNING VALID 051500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 30.9N 145.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 31.6N 148.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 30.9N 145.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 31.6N 148.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 061200UTC 33.3N 150.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 071200UTC 36.8N 148.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 081200UTC 41.1N 150.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 30.7N, 145.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 30.2N 145.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 145.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 31.0N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.6N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 32.4N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.6N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 36.4N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 39.9N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 42.0N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 145.6E.
04JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS
984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250704124443
2025070412 04W MUN 012 02 040 04 SATL 045
T000 302N 1453E 055 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 310N 1464E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 316N 1478E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 324N 1491E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 336N 1495E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 364N 1486E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 399N 1506E 030
T120 420N 1560E 025
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 30.2N 145.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 145.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 31.0N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.6N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 32.4N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.6N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 36.4N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 39.9N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 42.0N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 145.6E.
04JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS
984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z. REFER
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 55
0425070406 299N1450E 55
0425070412 302N1453E 55
0425070412 302N1453E 55
NNNN

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 30.7N 145.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 31.6N 148.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 33.3N 150.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 36.8N 148.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 41.1N 150.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 30.7N 145.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 31.6N 148.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 061200UTC 33.3N 150.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 071200UTC 36.8N 148.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 081200UTC 41.1N 150.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 30.4N 145.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 31.4N 148.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 30.4N 145.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 31.4N 148.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 060600UTC 32.8N 150.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 070600UTC 35.6N 148.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 080600UTC 39.8N 149.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250704065437
2025070406 04W MUN 011 02 010 06 SATL 030
T000 301N 1449E 055 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 309N 1458E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 316N 1472E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 324N 1484E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 334N 1492E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 359N 1490E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 386N 1495E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 415N 1531E 025
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 30.1N 144.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 144.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.9N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.6N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.4N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 33.4N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.9N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 38.6N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 41.5N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 145.1E.
04JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 985 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070400 295N1448E 55
0425070406 301N1449E 55
0425070406 301N1449E 55
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 30.1N, 145.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 30.1N 145.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 31.3N 147.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 060600UTC 32.8N 150.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 070600UTC 35.6N 148.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 080600UTC 39.8N 149.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 30.1N 145.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 31.3N 147.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 32.8N 150.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 35.6N 148.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 39.8N 149.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 29.9N 145.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 31.4N 147.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 060000UTC 32.8N 149.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 070000UTC 35.8N 149.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 080000UTC 39.8N 149.0E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250704022204
2025070400 04W MUN 010 02 350 06 SATL 060
T000 296N 1448E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 306N 1451E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 313N 1466E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 319N 1478E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 327N 1491E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 352N 1493E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 379N 1488E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 406N 1516E 025
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 29.6N 144.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 144.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.6N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 31.3N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.9N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 32.7N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 35.2N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 37.9N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 40.6N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 29.9N 144.9E.
04JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1449E 60
0425070318 290N1449E 60
0425070400 296N1448E 55
0425070400 296N1448E 55
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 29.7N, 145.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 29.7N 145.1E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 31.2N 146.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 060000UTC 32.8N 149.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 070000UTC 35.8N 149.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 080000UTC 39.8N 149.0E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 040000
WARNING 040000.
WARNING VALID 050000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 29.7N 145.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 31.2N 146.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 32.8N 149.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 35.8N 149.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 39.8N 149.0E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 29.4N 145.0E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 040900UTC 30.3N 145.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 042100UTC 31.0N 146.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 051800UTC 32.5N 149.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 061800UTC 35.6N 150.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 071800UTC 39.2N 150.0E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 081800UTC 43.7N 155.4E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250703193320
2025070318 04W MUN 009 01 350 06 SATL 040
T000 290N 1450E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 301N 1452E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 309N 1462E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 315N 1474E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 323N 1487E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 345N 1498E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 377N 1498E 040 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 406N 1506E 030
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 29.0N 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.0N 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.1N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.9N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.5N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.3N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.5N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 37.7N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 40.6N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 145.0E.
03JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070306 277N1454E 50
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070312 284N1451E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
0425070318 290N1450E 60
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 29.0N, 145.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 29.0N 145.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 040600UTC 30.1N 145.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 041800UTC 30.8N 146.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 051800UTC 32.5N 149.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 061800UTC 35.6N 150.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 071800UTC 39.2N 150.0E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 081800UTC 43.7N 155.4E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 031800
WARNING 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 996 HPA
AT 29.0N 145.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 30.1N 145.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 30.8N 146.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 32.5N 149.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 35.6N 150.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 39.2N 150.0E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 43.7N 155.4E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 28.6N 145.2E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 040300UTC 29.9N 145.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 041500UTC 30.6N 145.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 051200UTC 31.6N 148.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 061200UTC 33.6N 149.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 071200UTC 36.6N 149.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 081200UTC 40.0N 152.9E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250703132759
2025070312 04W MUN 008 01 015 07 SATL 035
T000 283N 1455E 060 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 293N 1456E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 302N 1461E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 310N 1471E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 317N 1481E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 334N 1495E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 359N 1497E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 384N 1496E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 28.3N 145.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 145.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.3N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.2N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 31.0N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.7N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.4N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.9N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 38.4N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 145.5E.
03JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
031200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND
041500Z.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 276N1453E 55
0425070306 276N1453E 55
0425070312 283N1455E 60
0425070312 283N1455E 60
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 28.3N 145.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 145.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.3N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.2N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 31.0N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.7N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 33.4N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.9N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 38.4N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 145.5E.
03JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
031200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND
041500Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 28.3N, 145.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 28.3N 145.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 040000UTC 29.6N 145.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 041200UTC 30.4N 145.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 051200UTC 31.6N 148.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 061200UTC 33.6N 149.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 071200UTC 36.6N 149.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 081200UTC 40.0N 152.9E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 998 HPA
AT 28.3N 145.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 29.6N 145.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 30.4N 145.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 31.6N 148.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 33.6N 149.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 36.6N 149.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 40.0N 152.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 28.1N 145.6E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 032100UTC 29.3N 145.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 040900UTC 30.2N 145.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 050600UTC 31.1N 147.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 060600UTC 33.0N 148.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 070600UTC 35.8N 148.6E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 080600UTC 39.4N 150.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 27.7N, 145.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN
TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250703071910
2025070306 04W MUN 007 01 360 06 SATL 020
T000 276N 1454E 050 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 287N 1451E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 297N 1453E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 305N 1464E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 312N 1473E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 326N 1489E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 351N 1495E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 376N 1494E 035 R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 27.6N 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.7N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.7N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.5N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.2N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 32.6N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 35.1N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 37.6N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 145.3E.
03JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
EAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 267N1456E 35
0425070300 270N1454E 45
0425070306 276N1454E 50
0425070306 276N1454E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 27.7N 145.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 031800UTC 29.0N 144.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 040600UTC 30.0N 145.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 050600UTC 31.1N 147.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 060600UTC 33.0N 148.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 070600UTC 35.8N 148.6E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 080600UTC 39.4N 150.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 030600
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 998 HPA
AT 27.7N 145.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 29.0N 144.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 30.0N 145.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 31.1N 147.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 33.0N 148.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 35.8N 148.6E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 39.4N 150.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 27.2N 145.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 031500UTC 28.8N 144.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 040300UTC 29.9N 144.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 050000UTC 31.1N 146.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 060000UTC 32.7N 148.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 070000UTC 35.9N 149.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 080000UTC 39.6N 150.8E 215NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 27.0N, 145.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW
SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.1N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.2N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) 1000 HPA
AT 27.0N 145.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 28.6N 144.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 29.8N 144.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 31.1N 146.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 32.7N 148.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 35.9N 149.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 39.6N 150.8E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 27.0N 145.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 031200UTC 28.6N 144.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 040000UTC 29.8N 144.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 050000UTC 31.1N 146.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 060000UTC 32.7N 148.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 070000UTC 35.9N 149.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 080000UTC 39.6N 150.8E 215NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 26.9N 145.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030900UTC 28.1N 144.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 032100UTC 29.3N 145.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 041800UTC 30.8N 146.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 051800UTC 32.2N 148.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 061800UTC 35.8N 150.3E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 071800UTC 40.1N 150.8E 215NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250702195104
2025070218 04W MUN 005 01 315 09 SATL 040
T000 268N 1456E 035 R034 075 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 279N 1451E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 291N 1449E 040 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 299N 1453E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 307N 1461E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 321N 1482E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 345N 1492E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 368N 1481E 040 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 26.8N 145.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 145.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.9N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.1N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.9N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.7N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.1N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 34.5N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 36.8N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 145.5E.
02JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 593 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35
0425070218 268N1456E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2503 MUN (2503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 26.1N, 146.4E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(MUN) STATUS. TS MUN IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 145.6E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2503 MUN (2503) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 26.8N 145.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030600UTC 27.8N 145.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 031800UTC 29.1N 144.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 041800UTC 30.8N 146.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 051800UTC 32.2N 148.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 061800UTC 35.8N 150.3E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 071800UTC 40.1N 150.8E 215NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2503 MUN (2503) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002
HPA
AT 26.8N 145.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 27.8N 145.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 29.1N 144.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 30.8N 146.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 32.2N 148.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 35.8N 150.3E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 40.1N 150.8E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250702133820
2025070212 04W FOUR 004 01 320 07 SATL 060
T000 262N 1463E 035 R034 075 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 272N 1454E 045 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 283N 1450E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T036 294N 1451E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T048 302N 1458E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T072 311N 1477E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 329N 1489E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T120 351N 1491E 040 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 26.2N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 146.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.2N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.3N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.4N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.2N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.1N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 32.9N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.1N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 146.1E.
02JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 35
0425070212 262N1463E 35

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 004 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 26.2N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 146.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.2N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.3N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.4N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.2N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.1N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 32.9N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.1N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 146.1E.
02JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250702074751
2025070206 04W FOUR 003 01 320 08 SATL 060
T000 257N 1468E 030
T012 269N 1458E 035 R034 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 280N 1452E 040 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 291N 1450E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 302N 1453E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T072 314N 1473E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T096 326N 1484E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T120 348N 1489E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 25.7N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.9N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.0N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.4N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 32.6N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.8N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 146.5E.
02JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
261 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 251N1474E 30
0425070206 257N1468E 30

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 25.7N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.9N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.0N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.4N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 32.6N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.8N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 146.5E.
02JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
261 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 020541
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 04W Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP042025
341 PM ChST Wed Jul 2 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
This will be the last public advisory issuance for TD 04W.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...25.3N 147.1E

About 365 miles east of Iwo To
About 435 miles west of Minamitorishima
About 460 miles north of Agrihan
About 710 miles north of Saipan
About 830 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 04W
was located near Latitude 25.3 degrees North and Longitude
147.1 degrees East. 04W is moving north-northwest at 9 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with little
change in forward speed through Thursday as it continues to move away
from the region.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. 04W is forecast to
intensify through Thursday, possibly becoming a tropical storm
overnight.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan, Guam, on Tropical Depression 04W.

$$

Montvila

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.4N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.5N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.6N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250702013856
2025070200 04W FOUR 002 01 345 08 SATL 030
T000 250N 1474E 030
T012 264N 1464E 035 R034 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 275N 1455E 035 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 286N 1450E 040 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 297N 1449E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 310N 1459E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 320N 1473E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 341N 1493E 045 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.4N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.5N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.6N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.7N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 31.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 32.0N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.1N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 147.1E.
02JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
735 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
0425070200 250N1474E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 012048
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 04W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP042025
648 AM ChST Wed Jul 2 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS EAST OF IWO TO AND CONTINUES TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
This is the first public advisory issuance for TD 04W.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...24.6N 147.3E

About 375 miles east of Iwo To
About 415 miles north-northeast of Agrihan
About 455 miles north-northeast of Pagan
About 490 miles north of Alamagan
About 660 miles north of Saipan
About 785 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...340 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 04W
was located near Latitude 24.6 degrees North and Longitude
147.3 degrees East. 04W is moving north-northwest at 9 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course and speed through
Thursday, potentially exiting NWS Guam's Area of Responsibility (AOR)
sometime this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. 04W is forecast to intensify
through tonight, possibly becoming a tropical storm as it exits the
region. No direct impacts are expected to the Marianas or Micronesia
from this storm.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 PM ChST Wednesday afternoon.

$$

Montvila

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 250701193827
2025070118 04W FOUR 001 01 340 08 SATL 030
T000 242N 1476E 030
T012 259N 1466E 035 R034 100 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 271N 1458E 040 R034 090 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 282N 1453E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 294N 1449E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 310N 1456E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 319N 1472E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 335N 1479E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 24.2N 147.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 147.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.1N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.4N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 31.0N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.9N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 33.5N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 147.3E.
01JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
782 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
0425062912 148N1486E 15
0425062918 154N1491E 15
0425063000 162N1497E 15
0425063006 173N1501E 15
0425063012 188N1495E 25
0425063018 202N1491E 25
0425070100 211N1483E 25
0425070106 225N1481E 25
0425070112 234N1479E 30
0425070118 242N1476E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 24.2N 147.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 147.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.1N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.4N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 31.0N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 31.9N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 33.5N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 147.3E.
01JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
782 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 011400).//
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