Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for CHANTAL-25
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 061436
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

The center of Chantal has been moving inland over northeastern South
Carolina this morning and is currently near the North and South
Carolina border. Surface observations indicate that the winds have
decreased, and the system is now being classified as a 30-kt
tropical depression. The cyclone should continue to weaken today as
it moves farther inland. The global models show the circulation
opening up into a trough of low pressure on Monday, with the remnant
moisture moving northeastward along the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
through early Tuesday.

Chantal is moving northward or 360/8 kt. A turn toward the
northeast is anticipated later today or this evening as the cyclone
moves around the western side of a mid-level ridge located off the
U.S. East Coast. The latest track prediction is similar to the
previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The primary threat from Chantal will be heavy rainfall that is
likely across portions of eastern and central North Carolina into
Monday.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Chantal. Future advisories on this system will be issued by
the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).
Those advisories can be found on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.


Key Messages:

1.Flash flood concerns continue today across portions of central
North Carolina into Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding
could occur within more urbanized areas.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents conditions are expected
to continue at beaches along the U.S. east coast from northeastern
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach
goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 34.4N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 07/0000Z 35.4N 79.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1200Z 37.0N 77.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 061436
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES AS RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 79.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF LUMBERTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 79.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast
is expected this evening and that motion should continue into
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected
to move over eastern North Carolina through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
24 hours, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of
low pressure on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Chantal will continue to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of central North Carolina into Monday.
Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6
inches, is expected. An elevated risk for flash flooding will
continue.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible today over parts
of eastern North Carolina.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are expected
to continue at beaches along the U.S. east coast from northeastern
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Chantal. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 500 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 061435
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 79.2W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 79.2W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.4N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.0N 77.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 79.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CHANTAL. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT3, WMO HEADER
WTNT23 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 061150
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL
MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 79.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF CONWAY SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 79.2 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24
hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to
move further inland over South Carolina and then North Carolina
through the day today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Chantal
moves inland, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a
trough of low pressure on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. In the past
couple of hours, a sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) with a gust to
47 mph (76 km/h) was reported at Coastal Research and Monitoring
Program buoy just off Sunset Beach, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the warning area this morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina today and
across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is
expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible today across portions
of eastern North Carolina and extreme northeastern South Carolina.

SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 060848
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Before the Air Force Reconnaissance plane departed Chantal this
morning, their final leg observed 700 mb flight level winds of 59 kt
and a dropsonde estimated pressure down to 1002 mb. Near the same
location as those peak flight-level winds, NWS Doppler Radar
velocities from Wilmington showed persistent 65-70 kt inbound values
at 3-5 thousand feet. These data points were the basis for
increasing Chantal's winds to 50 kt at the 06 UTC intermediate
advisory. Since that time, the structure of the tropical storm on
radar has degraded and the exact center has been difficult to pin
down, but appears to have made landfall near Litchfield Beach, South
Carolina at approximately 08 UTC. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 45 kt for this advisory given the degradation in
appearance now just after landfall and the decreasing Doppler radial
velocities.

Chantal is estimated to now be moving north-northwestward, at 345/7
kt. A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated by the
end of today as the cyclone rounds the westward side of a mid-level
ridge located off the U.S. East Coast. The latest NHC track forecast
is shifted just a bit eastward, mostly based on the initial
position, but falls in line closely to the prior forecast track in
24-36 h. Weakening has already started as Chantal moves inland.
Weakening should continue as the full circulation moves inland, with
Chantal likely weakening back to a tropical depression later today.
The majority of the global and hurricane-regional models then show
the circulation opening up into a trough after 36 h, though its
likely Chantal's remnant moisture will continue onward into the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States after this time period.

Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds
and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning
area through this morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina
will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Storm Chantal
today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Isolated
to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas.

3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 33.6N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 34.9N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 36.3N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 07/1800Z 37.7N 76.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 060843
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL NOW MOVING INLAND INTO FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS PUSH ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Edisto Beach to South Santee River,
South Carolina has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case for the
next 6-12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.1 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24
hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to
move further inland into South Carolina and then North Carolina
through the day today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rapid weakening is anticipated now that Chantal has
made landfall, with the system opening up into a trough in 36-48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. In the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 45
mph (72 km/h) was reported at Apache Pier, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and should persist through this morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina today and
across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is
expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible today across portions
of eastern North Carolina and extreme northeast South Carolina.

SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 060841
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.1W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.1W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 78.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.9N 79.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.3N 78.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 37.7N 76.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 79.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 060552
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER AND CLOSE TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVES ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 78.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 78.8 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the
northeast by the end of today. On the forecast track, the center of
Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina in
the next few hours.

Recent aircraft and land-based radar velocity data indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall,
with rapid weakening forecast after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. Within the past hour, Springmaid Pier in South
Carolina reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to
56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force dropsonde
data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning and
should persist through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area overnight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches,
is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today across
parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 060249
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Strong convection continues to persist in the northeastern quadrant
of Chantal, with the center located on the southwestern edge of the
burst. This convection has been causing a gradual increase in
organization of the storm, with an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft recently reporting 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt,
which equate to about 45 kt at the surface. This data is also close
to derived velocity radar data from Wilmington, showing peak 8000 ft
winds of about 55 kt, and TAFB's latest satellite classification of
45 kt. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with these
values.

The current motion estimate is 350/7, and Chantal could turn to
the north-northwest before landfall due to a narrow mid-level ridge.
A turn to the northeast is expected later on Sunday as Chantal
becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the
west side of the ridge. There is little time left for any
intensification, and Chantal should make landfall within the next 6
hours at about the present intensity (45-50 kt). Steady weakening
will occur after landfall with the loss of the warm water heat
source, and Chantal is expected to dissipate over eastern North
Carolina by early Monday. The track forecast was nudged to the
east, with little change to the intensity forecast.

Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds
and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina will cause flash
flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas.

3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 32.7N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 060248
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM CHANTAL SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 78.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 78.8 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected to begin overnight, followed by a
turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South
Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning.

Radar and aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening
forecast after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force
dropsonde data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and
overnight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches,
is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across
parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 060247
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 78.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 052342
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 78.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a
turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South
Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches
the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this
evening and overnight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches,
is expected. This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for
flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across
parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 052033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

The satellite presentation of Chantal has not changed much
throughout the day with convective banding and a concentrated area
of deep convection located over the eastern semicircle of the
storm. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
investigated Chantal through midday found a peak 850-mb flight-level
wind of 51 kt which supported the increase in winds to 40 kt on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory. With no significant change in
structure since that time, the intensity remains 40 kt for this
advisory. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this evening.

The moderate shear that has been affecting Chantal is forecast to
decrease some this evening, however drier mid-level air appears to
be being entrained into the western part of the circulation.
Therefore only slight strengthening is predicted before Chantal
reaches the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday.
After landfall, steady weakening should occur and the system is
expected to open up into a trough by Monday.

Recent fixes show that Chantal has begun moving a little faster
toward the north with an initial motion estimate of 360/6. The
track guidance suggests that the storm will turn north-
northwestward between a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf
and a narrow mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. A turn to
the northeast is expected after landfall as Chantal becomes more
embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of
the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCA
multi-model consensus, which is close to the previous NHC forecast.

Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds
and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas will cause flash
flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas.

3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 31.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 052032
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 78.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 78.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 052033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...CHANTAL MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA
THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 78.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a
turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South
Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the
coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this
evening and overnight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches,
is expected. This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for
flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across
parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 051735
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA
THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn
to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina
overnight or early Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before
Chantal reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
later today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local
amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause
flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday
along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North
Carolina.

SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 051503 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Corrected storm position in Discussion and Outlook section

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 78.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf
City, NC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow motion toward
the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South
Carolina Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
primarily east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
later today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local
amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause
flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday
along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North
Carolina.

SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 051455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and
gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most
of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the
east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently
investigating the system and have found that the pressure has
dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong
thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are
beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and
conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are
expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day.

Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the
north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering
features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a
narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow
between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over
South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center
reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion.
After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm
moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies
close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind
solutions.

Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal
is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind
shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to
shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for
strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than
the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and
HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until
the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours.

Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day
or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to
the right of the landfall location.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could
occur within more urbanized areas in the coastal plain of the
Carolinas.

3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 31.1N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 051455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 78.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf
City, NC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow motion toward
the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South
Carolina Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
primarily east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
later today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local
amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause
flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday
along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North
Carolina.

SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 051453
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 78.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 78.7W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 78.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 051151
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from the South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 79.0 West. The storm is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion
toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today,
followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of
South Carolina Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before
Chantal reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing into Sunday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later
today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. Resulting in an elevated
risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft

SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 050852
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

The depression has been showing signs of organization overnight,
with a significant burst of deep convection currently seen on
GOES-19 infrared imagery on the eastern semicircle of the tropical
cyclone. However, the center of the tropical depression appears to
still be displaced westward from this burst, estimated to be on the
edge of the larger cirrus plume. An earlier scatterometer pass
received just after the prior advisory indicated the peak winds were
up to 32 kt, so the depression may be close to tropical storm
strength. For now though, the initial intensity is being held at 30
kt blending the lower subjective and higher objective Dvorak
intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is
scheduled to sample the system later this morning and should provide
more in-situ information about the cyclone later today.

The depression continues to meander this morning, with my best guess
at an estimated motion to be at 030/2-kt. The track forecast in the
short-term is somewhat tricky, since the lopsided nature of the
convection with the system suggests that there could be some center
reformations/relocations to the north and/or east later today.
Thereafter, the main steering features are a mid-to-upper level low
over the northeastern Gulf, and a narrow mid-level ridge to the
northeast of the depression. Their combined influence should result
in a general north-northwestward track over the next 24-36 h. The
track guidance this cycle has come in further east this run,
somewhat in response to the adjusted initial position. The NHC track
forecast has been shifted eastward in response to this shift in the
guidance, favoring the deterministic ECMWF (EMXI) over the GFS
(AVNI), but it is not as far west as some of the track aids,
including the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and European
deterministic AIFS (EAII).

The vertical wind shear over the system is probably the most
unfavorable it will be as the system remains over the warm Gulf
Stream waters. In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance
shows the current southwesterly shear decreasing from 20 kt
currently to more like 10-15 kt over the next 24 h. However, there
is some dry mid-level air lurking to east that might temper more
robust intensification. All things considered, assuming the
depression becomes better aligned vertically, at least some modest
intensification should occur, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
still shows a peak intensity of 40 kt before the system moves inland
over South Carolina on Sunday Morning. While this forecast is on the
upper end of the interpolated intensity guidance, the raw output
from both the 00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B have a peak intensity a little
above that value in 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken
and is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 h. It is a
little unclear if the circulation will open up into a trough by
early next week or if some remnant circulation will move back
offshore beyond that time period. For now, the NHC forecast will
stick to the former solution showing dissipation by 60 h.

Given the eastward shift in the guidance this cycle, the Tropical
Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Cape Fear, North Carolina
this advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three from today through
Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more
urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas.

3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 30.8N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 31.5N 78.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 32.6N 79.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0600Z 34.8N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 07/1800Z 36.3N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 050848
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 78.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Little River Inlet to
Cape Fear, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Fear, NC

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 78.6 West. The
depression is moving slowly toward the north-northeast near 2 mph
(4 km/h). A slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected to
begin later today, followed by a turn northward and then
northeastward by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of
the system is expected to move near or over the coast of South
Carolina on Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning this evening or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an
elevated risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.

SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north
of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 050846
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 78.6W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 78.6W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 78.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.5N 78.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.6N 79.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 34.8N 78.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.3N 77.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 78.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 050546
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 78.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 78.8 West. The
depression has been nearly stationary tonight, but a slow motion
towards the north-northwest is expected to begin later today,
followed by a motion toward the north by the end of the day, and
then northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South
Carolina on Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure as measured by a recent ship
observation near the center is 1010 mb (29.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning late today or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an
elevated risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.

SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north
of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents#contents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 050235
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening,
with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the
deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly
shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level
center. The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with
data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite
trends.

The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term
motion is basically stationary. A slow north-northwestward motion
is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on
the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the
northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered
to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed
along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion
should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina
Sunday morning. The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east,
consistent with the latest guidance.

The global models generally indicate that the current shear should
lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in
combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. There is
plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit
significant development, as well as the current disheveled
structure. The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening
as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows
suit, near the latest model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three between Saturday
through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur
within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the
Carolinas.

3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 30.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 050234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 78.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later tonight and Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 78.9 West. The
depression has been nearly stationary tonight. A slow motion
towards the north-northwest is expected to begin on Saturday,
followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and northeast
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression
is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is
forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning late Saturday or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an
elevated risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.

SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north
of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 050234
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.9W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.9W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 78.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 042332
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later tonight and Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. The
depression has recently been stationary, but is forecast to move
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) later this evening. A slow
motion toward the north-northwest is then expected on Saturday,
followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move
near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast
to become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning late Saturday or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an
elevated risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.

SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of
days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 042035
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of
the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and
scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with
maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about
80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east
and southeast of the center. Based on these developments,
advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The
cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly
shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west.

The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the
center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt. During the next 24 h,
the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast
side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern
Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered northward with
a gradual increase in forward speed. This motion should bring the
center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. A
generally northward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates over land. While the guidance generally agrees with this
scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast
direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier.
The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA
corrected consensus model.

The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the
upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the
upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds
are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of
convection the system produces. Most of the guidance shows some
development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity
forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before
the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the
intensity consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding from Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal
plain of the Carolinas.

3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 30.8N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 31.7N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 32.4N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 33.7N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 07/0600Z 35.0N 79.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 042034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach, South
Carolina to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later tonight and Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
motion toward the north-northwest is expected through Saturday,
followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to
move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast
to become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning late Saturday or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an
elevated risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.

SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of
days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 042033
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.7N 79.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.4N 80.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.7N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.0N 79.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 79.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN