Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NARI-25
in Japan, Russian Federation

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED AT 45N 145E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
NARI (2505) HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED AT 45N, 145E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG
VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 2505 NARI (2505)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 45N 145E
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2505 NARI (2505)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 43.9N 143.7E FAIR
MOVE N 28KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150900UTC 47.5N 148.4E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 152100UTC 48.5N 159.9E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 250714194600
2025071418 06W NARI 016 02 015 29 SATL 030
T000 425N 1436E 040 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 467N 1478E 035 R034 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 487N 1561E 030
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
01 ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 42.5N 143.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 42.5N 143.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 46.7N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 48.7N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 43.6N 144.6E.
14JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM
NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 29
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 06W WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS PASSING OVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF HOKKAIDO.
THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 06W IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS INTERACTION
WITH THE JET TO THE NORTH INCREASES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE AT TAU 12 AS WESTERLY SHEAR RAPIDLY INCREASES
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DRASTICALLY DROP (BELOW 18 C).
THESE ENVIRONEMNTAL FACTORS WILL ALSO AID IN THE WEAKENING OF THE
VORTEX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS
DEPICTING STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 993
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) FINAL WARNING
0625070912 187N1423E 15
0625070918 194N1422E 20
0625071000 205N1421E 20
0625071006 222N1421E 25
0625071012 232N1418E 30
0625071018 243N1411E 30
0625071100 250N1404E 30
0625071106 250N1400E 30
0625071112 251N1402E 30
0625071118 252N1400E 35
0625071200 251N1407E 35
0625071206 248N1413E 35
0625071212 250N1415E 35
0625071218 255N1422E 35
0625071300 263N1425E 35
0625071306 276N1430E 40
0625071312 304N1431E 50
0625071312 304N1431E 50
0625071318 324N1426E 55
0625071318 324N1426E 55
0625071400 341N1422E 45
0625071406 368N1425E 45
0625071412 397N1425E 40
0625071418 425N1436E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2505 NARI (2505) 994 HPA
AT 42.6N 143.2E HOKKAIDO MOVING NORTH 30 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 46.8N 147.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 48.5N 156.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 250714133821
2025071412 06W NARI 015 02 360 29 SATL 020
T000 397N 1425E 040 R034 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 449N 1454E 035 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 479N 1521E 030
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
01 ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 39.7N 142.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.7N 142.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 44.9N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 47.9N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 41.0N 143.2E.
14JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 73 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 29 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141200Z IS
985 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO
0625070912 187N1423E 15
0625070918 194N1422E 20
0625071000 205N1421E 20
0625071006 222N1421E 25
0625071012 232N1418E 30
0625071018 243N1411E 30
0625071100 250N1404E 30
0625071106 250N1400E 30
0625071112 251N1402E 30
0625071118 252N1400E 35
0625071200 251N1407E 35
0625071206 248N1413E 35
0625071212 250N1415E 35
0625071218 255N1422E 35
0625071300 263N1425E 35
0625071306 276N1430E 40
0625071312 304N1431E 50
0625071312 304N1431E 50
0625071318 324N1426E 55
0625071318 324N1426E 55
0625071400 341N1422E 45
0625071406 368N1426E 45
0625071412 397N1425E 40
NNNN