Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-25
in Japan, China, Taiwan

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 251946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 251800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCISCO (2507) HAS
WEAKENED INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.



NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION
TAKES PLACE.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 251646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 251500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCISCO (2507) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (26.3
N) ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 251346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 251200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCISCO (2507) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 251046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 250900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCISCO (2507) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TD LOCATED AT 27N 123E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
FRANCISCO (2507) HAS WEAKENED TO TD INTENSITY. THE TD IS LOCATED
AT 27N, 123E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY
A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 250746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 250600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCISCO (2507) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 27N 123E
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 26.7N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251500UTC 26.5N 121.8E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 260300UTC 26.7N 120.6E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 250725020555
2025072500 10W FRANCISCO 012 03 260 11 SATL 030
T000 267N 1237E 035 R034 090 NE QD 000 SE QD 085 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 266N 1220E 030
T024 263N 1213E 025
T036 259N 1219E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 26.7N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.6N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 25.9N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 123.3E.
25JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
153 NM NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1025072006 127N1350E 15
1025072012 131N1350E 15
1025072018 139N1344E 15
1025072100 142N1339E 15
1025072106 147N1335E 15
1025072112 154N1334E 15
1025072118 160N1334E 15
1025072200 171N1330E 20
1025072206 181N1323E 25
1025072212 191N1315E 25
1025072218 199N1308E 30
1025072300 208N1299E 35
1025072306 214N1295E 40
1025072312 220N1291E 40
1025072318 231N1285E 40
1025072400 239N1280E 40
1025072406 249N1279E 40
1025072412 262N1270E 35
1025072418 269N1249E 35
1025072500 267N1237E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 26.7N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.6N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 25.9N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 123.3E.
25JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
153 NM NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 26.7N, 123.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 250146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 250000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO (2507) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (123.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC
TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.
0000004100
25016


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 26.7N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251200UTC 26.5N 122.1E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 260000UTC 26.6N 120.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2507 FRANCISCO (2507) 994 HPA
AT 26.7N 123.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 26.5N 122.1E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 26.6N 120.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 242246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO (2507) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 242100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO (2507) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 26.8N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250900UTC 26.5N 122.2E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 252100UTC 26.6N 120.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 26.7N, 125.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 26.7N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 250600UTC 26.5N 123.0E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 251800UTC 26.6N 121.2E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2507 FRANCISCO (2507) 990 HPA
AT 26.7N 125.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 26.5N 123.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 26.6N 121.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 26.8N 126.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 250300UTC 26.4N 123.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 251500UTC 26.3N 122.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 26.0N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 250724133055
2025072412 10W FRANCISCO 010 03 330 13 SATL 060
T000 260N 1272E 035 R034 195 NE QD 160 SE QD 000 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 269N 1251E 035 R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 273N 1234E 025
T036 276N 1226E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 26.0N 127.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 127.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.3N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.6N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 126.7E.
24JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44
NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1025072006 127N1350E 15
1025072012 131N1350E 15
1025072018 139N1344E 15
1025072100 142N1339E 15
1025072106 147N1335E 15
1025072112 154N1334E 15
1025072118 160N1334E 15
1025072200 171N1330E 20
1025072206 181N1323E 25
1025072212 191N1315E 25
1025072218 199N1308E 30
1025072300 208N1299E 35
1025072306 214N1295E 40
1025072312 220N1291E 40
1025072318 231N1285E 40
1025072400 239N1280E 40
1025072406 249N1279E 40
1025072412 260N1272E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 26.0N 127.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 127.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.3N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.6N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 126.7E.
24JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44
NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (CO-MAY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 26.0N 126.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 250000UTC 26.5N 123.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 251200UTC 26.5N 122.2E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2507 FRANCISCO (2507) 990 HPA
AT 26.0N 126.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 26.5N 123.8E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 26.5N 122.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 25.4N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 242100UTC 26.4N 124.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 250900UTC 26.5N 122.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 260600UTC 26.7N 121.2E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 250724073110
2025072406 10W FRANCISCO 009 03 355 10 SATL 060
T000 249N 1279E 040 R034 195 NE QD 160 SE QD 000 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 262N 1258E 040 R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 000 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 267N 1240E 030
T036 271N 1224E 025
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 24.9N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.2N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 26.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.1N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 127.4E.
24JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1025072006 127N1350E 15
1025072012 131N1350E 15
1025072018 139N1344E 15
1025072100 142N1339E 15
1025072106 147N1335E 15
1025072112 154N1334E 15
1025072118 160N1334E 15
1025072200 171N1330E 20
1025072206 181N1323E 25
1025072212 191N1315E 25
1025072218 199N1308E 30
1025072300 208N1299E 35
1025072306 214N1295E 40
1025072312 220N1291E 40
1025072318 231N1285E 40
1025072400 239N1280E 40
1025072406 249N1279E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10 (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 24.9N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.2N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 26.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.1N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 127.4E.
24JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (CO-MAY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 24.7N, 127.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 24.7N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 241800UTC 26.2N 124.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 250600UTC 26.5N 123.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 260600UTC 26.7N 121.2E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2507 FRANCISCO (2507) 992 HPA
AT 24.7N 127.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 26.2N 124.9E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 26.5N 123.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 26.7N 121.2E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 24.4N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 241500UTC 25.6N 125.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 250300UTC 26.3N 123.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 260000UTC 26.5N 121.4E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 24.2N, 127.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 250724010436
2025072400 10W FRANCISCO 008 03 340 10 SATL 040
T000 240N 1280E 040 R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 000 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 258N 1265E 040 R034 165 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 264N 1244E 035 R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 000 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 267N 1227E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 24.0N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.7N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 127.6E.
24JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
150 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1025072006 127N1350E 15
1025072012 131N1350E 15
1025072018 139N1344E 15
1025072100 142N1339E 15
1025072106 147N1335E 15
1025072112 154N1334E 15
1025072118 160N1334E 15
1025072200 171N1330E 20
1025072206 181N1323E 25
1025072212 191N1315E 25
1025072218 199N1308E 30
1025072300 208N1299E 35
1025072306 214N1295E 40
1025072312 220N1291E 40
1025072318 231N1284E 40
1025072400 240N1280E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 24.0N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.7N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 127.6E.
24JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
150 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (CO-MAY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.240300Z, 240900Z,
241500Z AND 242100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.240300Z, 240900Z,
241500Z AND 242100Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 24.2N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 241200UTC 25.3N 125.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 250000UTC 26.3N 124.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 260000UTC 26.5N 121.4E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2507 FRANCISCO (2507) 994 HPA
AT 24.2N 127.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 25.3N 125.9E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 26.3N 124.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 26.5N 121.4E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 22.8N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 240900UTC 25.0N 126.6E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 242100UTC 26.0N 124.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 251800UTC 26.5N 121.4E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 22.6N, 127.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 22.6N 127.9E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 240600UTC 24.6N 127.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 241800UTC 25.9N 124.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 251800UTC 26.5N 121.4E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2507 FRANCISCO (2507) 994 HPA
AT 22.6N 127.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 24.6N 127.1E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 25.9N 124.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 26.5N 121.4E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 22.6N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 240300UTC 24.4N 127.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 241500UTC 25.8N 125.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 251200UTC 26.6N 121.8E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 261200UTC 27.0N 121.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 22.6N, 129.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 250723131607
2025072312 10W FRANCISCO 006 03 280 06 SATL SYNP 025
T000 220N 1293E 040 R034 145 NE QD 160 SE QD 185 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 241N 1284E 045 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 256N 1265E 040 R034 190 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 263N 1245E 035 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 220 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 268N 1223E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.1N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.3N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.8N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 129.1E.
23JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1025072006 127N1350E 15
1025072012 131N1350E 15
1025072018 139N1344E 15
1025072100 142N1339E 15
1025072106 147N1335E 15
1025072112 154N1334E 15
1025072118 160N1334E 15
1025072200 171N1330E 20
1025072206 181N1323E 25
1025072212 191N1315E 25
1025072218 199N1308E 30
1025072300 208N1299E 35
1025072306 219N1299E 40
1025072312 220N1293E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.1N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.3N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.8N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 129.1E.
23JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2507 FRANCISCO (2507) 994 HPA
AT 22.6N 129.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 24.4N 128.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 25.6N 126.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 26.6N 121.8E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 27.0N 121.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 22.6N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 240000UTC 24.4N 128.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 241200UTC 25.6N 126.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 251200UTC 26.6N 121.8E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 261200UTC 27.0N 121.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 22.1N 129.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 232100UTC 23.5N 128.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 240900UTC 25.0N 126.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 250600UTC 26.2N 123.4E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 260600UTC 27.6N 120.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 250723073543
2025072306 10W FRANCISCO 005 03 360 11 SATL 020
T000 219N 1299E 040 R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 000 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 235N 1288E 045 R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 253N 1275E 045 R034 190 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 263N 1257E 040 R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 270N 1232E 035 R034 220 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.5N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.3N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 129.6E.
23JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
299 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1025072006 127N1350E 15
1025072012 131N1350E 15
1025072018 139N1344E 15
1025072100 142N1339E 15
1025072106 147N1335E 15
1025072112 154N1334E 15
1025072118 160N1334E 15
1025072200 171N1330E 20
1025072206 181N1323E 25
1025072212 191N1315E 25
1025072218 199N1308E 30
1025072300 208N1299E 35
1025072306 219N1299E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.5N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.3N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 129.6E.
23JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
299 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WIPHA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 21.7N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 21.7N 129.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 231800UTC 22.8N 128.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 240600UTC 24.4N 127.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 250600UTC 26.2N 123.4E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 260600UTC 27.6N 120.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2507 FRANCISCO (2507) 996 HPA
AT 21.7N 129.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 22.8N 128.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 24.4N 127.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 26.2N 123.4E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 27.6N 120.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 20.8N 130.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 231500UTC 22.4N 128.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 240300UTC 23.9N 126.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 250000UTC 25.9N 123.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 260000UTC 27.6N 121.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 230321
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francisco (10W) Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP102025
121 PM ChST Wed Jul 23 2025

...TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO (10W) EXITS THE REGION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Tropical Depression 10W upgraded to Tropical Storm Francisco (10W).

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...21.2N 129.7E

About 370 miles south-southeast of Okinawa
About 980 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 1010 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 1125 miles west-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...northwest...315 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm
Francisco was located near Latitude 21.2 degrees North and
Longitude 129.7 degrees East. Francisco is moving northwest at
14 mph. It is expected to maintain this general course with a
slight decrease in forward speed through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph. Francisco is
forecast to intensify through tonight.

None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Francisco

$$

Williams


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 250723015842
2025072300 10W FRANCISCO 004 03 315 12 SATL 040
T000 208N 1299E 035 R034 085 NE QD 160 SE QD 000 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 223N 1290E 040 R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 238N 1279E 040 R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 252N 1266E 040 R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 262N 1251E 035 R034 180 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 273N 1221E 035 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.8N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.2N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.3N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 129.7E.
23JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
361 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
230000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND
240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WIPHA) FINAL WARNING
1025072006 127N1350E 15
1025072012 131N1350E 15
1025072018 139N1344E 15
1025072100 142N1339E 15
1025072106 147N1335E 15
1025072112 154N1334E 15
1025072118 160N1334E 15
1025072200 171N1330E 20
1025072206 181N1323E 25
1025072212 191N1315E 25
1025072218 199N1308E 30
1025072300 208N1299E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.8N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.2N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.3N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 129.7E.
23JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
361 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
230000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND
240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WIPHA) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 19.8N, 132.2E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(FRANCISCO) STATUS. TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 20.4N, 130.4E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 230000
WARNING 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2507 FRANCISCO (2507) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 20.4N 130.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 22.0N 128.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.6N 126.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 25.9N 123.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 27.6N 121.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2507 FRANCISCO (2507) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 20.4N 130.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 231200UTC 22.0N 128.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 240000UTC 23.6N 126.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 250000UTC 25.9N 123.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 260000UTC 27.6N 121.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 222107
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 10W Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP102025
707 AM ChST Wed Jul 23 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.3N 130.6E

About 445 miles south-southeast of Okinawa
About 895 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 930 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 1050 miles west-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...northwest...320 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 10W
was located near Latitude 20.3 degrees North and Longitude
130.6 degrees East. 10W is moving northwest at 12 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a
slight decrease in forward speed through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 35 mph. 10W is forecast
to intensify through Thursday possibly becoming a tropical storm
later today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service this afternoon.
$$

Williams


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 250722192939
2025072218 10W TEN 003 02 320 10 SATL 040
T000 199N 1308E 030
T012 215N 1300E 035 R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 230N 1291E 040 R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 010 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 244N 1278E 040 R034 220 NE QD 150 SE QD 020 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 258N 1264E 040 R034 260 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 273N 1233E 035 R034 140 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 19.9N 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.5N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.0N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.8N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.3N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 130.6E.
22JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z
IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO
1025072006 127N1350E 15
1025072012 131N1350E 15
1025072018 139N1344E 15
1025072100 142N1339E 15
1025072106 147N1335E 15
1025072112 154N1334E 15
1025072118 160N1334E 15
1025072200 171N1330E 20
1025072206 181N1323E 25
1025072212 191N1315E 25
1025072218 199N1308E 30
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 19.9N 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.5N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.0N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.8N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.3N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 130.6E.
22JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z
IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WIPHA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 221522
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 10W Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP102025
122 AM ChST Wed Jul 23 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHWEST AND MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.1N 131.3E

About 480 miles south-southeast of Okinawa
About 860 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 905 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 1000 miles west-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...335 degrees at 22 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 10W
was located near Latitude 20.1 degrees North and Longitude
131.3 degrees East. 10W is moving north-northwest at 22 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed through Thursday as it heads toward the
Ryukyu Islands.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph. 10W is forecast to
intensify through Thursday, possibly becoming a Tropical Storm by
this evening.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM ChST Wednesday morning.

$$

Montvila


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 250722130653
2025072212 10W TEN 002 02 335 19 SATL 035
T000 196N 1316E 025
T012 216N 1306E 030
T024 232N 1293E 040 R034 290 NE QD 280 SE QD 010 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 248N 1280E 045 R034 300 NE QD 250 SE QD 020 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 260N 1266E 040 R034 240 NE QD 200 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 274N 1237E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 19.6N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.6N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.2N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.8N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.0N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 131.3E.
22JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1025072006 127N1350E 15
1025072012 131N1350E 15
1025072018 139N1344E 15
1025072100 142N1339E 15
1025072106 147N1335E 15
1025072112 154N1334E 15
1025072118 160N1334E 15
1025072200 171N1330E 20
1025072206 179N1325E 25
1025072212 196N1316E 25
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 19.6N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.6N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.2N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.8N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.0N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 131.3E.
22JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 221205
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 10W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP102025
1005 PM ChST Tue Jul 22 2025

...FORMER INVEST 97W SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 10W AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
This is the first public advisory issuance for TD 10W.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.4N 132.3E

About 725 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 775 miles north of Koror
About 895 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 915 miles west-northwest of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...330 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 10W
was located near Latitude 18.4 degrees North and Longitude
132.3 degrees East. 10W is moving north-northwest at 10 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a
slight increase in forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. 10W is forecast to intensify
through Wednesday, possibly becoming a tropical storm as early as
early Wednesday morning.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 AM ChST early Wednesday morning.

$$

Montvila


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 250722075201
2025072206 10W TEN 001 02 330 09 SATL 030
T000 179N 1325E 025
T012 199N 1317E 035 R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 216N 1305E 040 R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 010 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 234N 1293E 045 R034 290 NE QD 260 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 248N 1277E 045 R034 240 NE QD 150 SE QD 060 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 262N 1251E 035 R034 180 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.9N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.4N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 26.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 132.3E.
22JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 578
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1025072006 127N1350E 15
1025072012 131N1350E 15
1025072018 139N1344E 15
1025072100 142N1339E 15
1025072106 147N1335E 15
1025072112 154N1334E 15
1025072118 160N1334E 15
1025072200 171N1330E 20
1025072206 179N1325E 25
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Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220251ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.9N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.4N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 26.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 132.3E.
22JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 578
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 220300).//
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