Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for CO-MAY-25
in Philippines, Japan, China

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TD LOCATED AT 32N 120E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
CO-MAY (2508) HAS WEAKENED TO TD INTENSITY. THE TD IS LOCATED ON
LAND AT 32N, 120E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 32N 120E
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 31.5N 119.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 310900UTC 32.0N 118.6E 30NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 312100UTC 32.1N 117.6E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 31.3N, 120.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 31.3N 120.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 310600UTC 31.9N 118.9E 30NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 311800UTC 32.1N 117.8E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 985 HPA
AT 31.3N 120.1E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 31.9N 118.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 32.1N 117.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 31.1N 120.6E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 310300UTC 31.9N 119.2E 47NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 311500UTC 32.0N 118.0E 60NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 31.0N, 121.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND AND HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 31.2N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.2N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 31.9N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 32.3N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 32.5N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 31.0N 121.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 310000UTC 31.9N 119.5E 30NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 311200UTC 32.0N 118.2E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 301200
WARNING 301200.
WARNING VALID 311200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 980 HPA
AT 31.0N 121.1E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 31.9N 119.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 32.0N 118.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 31.0N 121.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 302100UTC 31.8N 120.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 310900UTC 32.1N 118.7E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 30.7N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 31.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 32.1N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 32.4N 118.6E
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 30.9N, 121.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 30.9N 121.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 301800UTC 31.7N 120.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 310600UTC 32.1N 119.0E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 310600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 980 HPA
AT 30.9N 121.8E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 31.7N 120.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 32.1N 119.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 30.5N 122.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 301500UTC 31.4N 121.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 310300UTC 32.0N 119.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 010000UTC 32.6N 118.6E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 30.1N, 122.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 30.0N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 31.1N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 31.8N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 32.3N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 300147

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 300000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 978 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG
KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (32.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC
THREE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (32.8 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 30.1N 122.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 301200UTC 31.2N 121.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 310000UTC 32.1N 120.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 010000UTC 32.6N 118.6E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 300000
WARNING 300000.
WARNING VALID 310000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 980 HPA
AT 30.1N 122.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 31.2N 121.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 32.1N 120.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 32.6N 118.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 292247

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 292100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 978 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (29.8 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (122.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC
THREE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (31.8 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC
THREE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (32.8 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (118.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC
THREE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (33.6 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 29.8N 122.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300900UTC 30.9N 121.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 302100UTC 31.9N 120.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 311800UTC 32.4N 118.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 29.3N, 123.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 291947

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 291800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (29.2 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (31.6 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC
THREE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (32.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (118.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC
THREE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (33.5 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 29.3N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300600UTC 30.6N 122.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 301800UTC 31.8N 120.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 311800UTC 32.4N 118.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 291800
WARNING 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 985 HPA
AT 29.3N 123.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 30.6N 122.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 31.8N 120.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 32.4N 118.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 291647

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 291500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (28.8 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (31.6 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC
THREE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (32.8 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC
THREE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (33.9 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 291500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291500UTC 28.8N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300300UTC 30.5N 122.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 301500UTC 31.8N 121.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 311200UTC 32.9N 118.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 011200UTC 33.8N 119.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 28.6N, 123.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 291347

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 291200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC
THREE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (31.3 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC
THREE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (32.7 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC
THREE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (33.7 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 28.6N 123.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300000UTC 30.1N 123.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 301200UTC 31.5N 121.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 311200UTC 32.9N 118.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 011200UTC 33.8N 119.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 990 HPA
AT 28.6N 123.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 30.1N 123.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 31.5N 121.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 32.9N 118.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 33.8N 119.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 291047

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 290900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (31.0 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310900 UTC
THREE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (32.6 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC
THREE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (33.5 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 28.3N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 292100UTC 29.6N 123.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 300900UTC 31.1N 122.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 310600UTC 32.8N 119.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 010600UTC 33.5N 119.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 020600UTC 34.8N 120.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 28.1N, 124.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW
DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 290747

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 290600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310600 UTC
THREE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (32.5 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC
THREE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (33.5 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 28.1N 124.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291800UTC 29.2N 123.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 300600UTC 30.8N 122.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 310600UTC 32.8N 119.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 010600UTC 33.5N 119.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 020600UTC 34.8N 120.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 290600
WARNING 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 990 HPA
AT 28.1N 124.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 29.2N 123.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 30.8N 122.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 32.8N 119.7E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 33.5N 119.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 34.8N 120.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 290447

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 290300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (27.6 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (32.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC
THREE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (33.3 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 27.7N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291500UTC 28.9N 123.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 300300UTC 30.4N 122.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 310000UTC 32.4N 120.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 010000UTC 33.4N 118.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 020000UTC 34.6N 119.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 27.2N, 124.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, DRY AIR AND
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 27.0N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 27.8N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.9N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 30.1N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 31.1N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 32.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 33.0N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 124.6E.
28JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 986 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 290147

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 290000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC
THREE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (31.9 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC
THREE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (33.1 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 990 HPA
AT 27.2N 124.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 28.5N 123.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 30.0N 122.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 32.4N 120.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 33.4N 118.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 34.6N 119.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 27.2N 124.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291200UTC 28.5N 123.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 300000UTC 30.0N 122.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 310000UTC 32.4N 120.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 010000UTC 33.4N 118.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 020000UTC 34.6N 119.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 26.8N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290900UTC 28.2N 123.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 292100UTC 29.5N 122.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 301800UTC 31.7N 120.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 311800UTC 32.9N 118.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 011800UTC 33.8N 118.8E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 125.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 990 HPA
AT 26.8N 125.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 28.0N 123.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 29.1N 123.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 31.7N 120.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 32.9N 118.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 33.8N 118.8E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 26.8N 125.3E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290600UTC 28.0N 123.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 291800UTC 29.1N 123.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 301800UTC 31.7N 120.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 311800UTC 32.9N 118.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 011800UTC 33.8N 118.8E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 27.0N 125.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290300UTC 27.7N 124.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 291500UTC 28.6N 123.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 301200UTC 30.9N 121.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 311200UTC 32.8N 119.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 011200UTC 33.3N 119.7E 175NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 021200UTC 33.7N 120.3E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 26.6N, 126.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND
LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN
TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 26.6N 126.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290000UTC 27.6N 124.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 291200UTC 28.3N 123.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 301200UTC 30.9N 121.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 311200UTC 32.8N 119.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 011200UTC 33.3N 119.7E 175NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 021200UTC 33.7N 120.3E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 990 HPA
AT 26.6N 126.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 27.6N 124.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 28.3N 123.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 30.9N 121.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 32.8N 119.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 33.3N 119.7E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 33.7N 120.3E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 26.6N 127.5E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 282100UTC 27.4N 124.6E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 290900UTC 28.0N 123.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 300600UTC 30.4N 121.8E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 310600UTC 32.5N 119.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 010600UTC 32.6N 118.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 020600UTC 33.3N 118.4E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 26.6N 128.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 128.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.1N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 27.8N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 26.6N, 128.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 26.6N 128.4E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281800UTC 27.5N 124.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 290600UTC 28.0N 123.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 300600UTC 30.4N 121.8E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 310600UTC 32.5N 119.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 010600UTC 32.6N 118.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 020600UTC 33.3N 118.4E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 990 HPA
AT 26.6N 128.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 27.5N 124.8E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 28.0N 123.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 30.4N 121.8E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 32.5N 119.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 32.6N 118.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 33.3N 118.4E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 26.2N 128.2E FAIR
MOVE S 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281500UTC 27.3N 125.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 290300UTC 28.0N 123.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 300000UTC 29.6N 121.5E 115NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 310000UTC 31.6N 120.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 010000UTC 32.5N 119.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 020000UTC 33.9N 118.9E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 26.2N, 128.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 990 HPA
AT 26.2N 128.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 27.1N 126.2E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 27.8N 123.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 29.6N 121.5E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 31.6N 120.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 32.5N 119.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 33.9N 118.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 26.2N 128.0E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281200UTC 27.1N 126.2E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 290000UTC 27.8N 123.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 300000UTC 29.6N 121.5E 115NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 310000UTC 31.6N 120.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 010000UTC 32.5N 119.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 020000UTC 33.9N 118.9E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 26.4N 128.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280900UTC 26.8N 126.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 282100UTC 27.7N 124.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 291800UTC 29.3N 121.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 301800UTC 31.5N 120.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 311800UTC 32.6N 120.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 011800UTC 34.1N 119.8E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 26.2N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 26.2N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280600UTC 26.6N 126.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 281800UTC 27.5N 124.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 291800UTC 29.3N 121.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 301800UTC 31.5N 120.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 311800UTC 32.6N 120.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 011800UTC 34.1N 119.8E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 990 HPA
AT 26.2N 129.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 26.6N 126.9E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 27.5N 124.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 29.3N 121.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 31.5N 120.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 32.6N 120.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 34.1N 119.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 271500 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 019A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 019A AMENDED AND RELOCATED
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 26.7N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 27.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 28.1N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 28.7N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 29.9N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 31.1N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 31.9N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 32.5N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 26.8N 127.6E.
27JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION/AMENDMENT: RELOCATED POSITION
86NM TO THE WEST BASED ON A 171221Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH THE CENTER POSITIONED OVER OKINAWA.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 25.8N 130.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 280300UTC 27.4N 127.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 281500UTC 27.9N 125.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 291200UTC 29.7N 121.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 301200UTC 31.9N 120.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 311200UTC 32.7N 120.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 011200UTC 33.1N 120.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (CO-MAY) STATUS. TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED
@AT 26.1N, 129.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 26.1N 129.6E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 280000UTC 27.4N 127.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 281200UTC 27.9N 125.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 291200UTC 29.7N 121.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 301200UTC 31.9N 120.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 311200UTC 32.7N 120.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 011200UTC 33.1N 120.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271200
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
992 HPA
AT 26.1N 129.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 27.4N 127.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 27.9N 125.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 29.7N 121.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 31.9N 120.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 32.7N 120.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 33.1N 120.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 26.6N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 26.9N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 27.4N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 28.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 28.8N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 30.3N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 31.4N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 32.3N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 127.8E.
27JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
6 NM NORTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
270000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND
280300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 26.9N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9N 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.4N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 28.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 127.0E.
26JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
64 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 26.3N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 27.2N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 27.4N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 126.8E.
26JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
71 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260600Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (FRANCISCO) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 25.3N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.5N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 126.0E.
26JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
134 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (FRANCISCO) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN32 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TD LOCATED AT 26N 125E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
CO-MAY (2508) HAS WEAKENED TO TD INTENSITY. THE TD IS LOCATED AT
26N, 125E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 26N 125E
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 996HPA =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 252247

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 252100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (24.7
N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (125.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE
HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (127.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 272100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 24.7N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE N 25KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260900UTC 26.5N 125.7E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 262100UTC 26.9N 126.6E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 23.5N, 124.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE
WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 23.5N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260600UTC 26.4N 125.5E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 261800UTC 26.9N 126.2E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 992 HPA
AT 23.5N 124.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 26.4N 125.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 26.9N 126.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 251647

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 251500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (126.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 22.3N 124.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260300UTC 25.5N 125.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 261500UTC 26.4N 126.2E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 36 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.5N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.0N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 123.9E.
25JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358
NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 36 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (FRANCISCO) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN32 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 251347

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 251200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (126.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 21.4N, 123.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED
FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2508 CO-MAY (2508) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 21.4N 123.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260000UTC 25.1N 124.6E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 261200UTC 26.3N 125.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 251200
WARNING 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 990 HPA
AT 21.4N 123.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 24 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 25.1N 124.6E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 26.3N 125.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 985 HPA
AT 20.1N 122.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 24.6N 124.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 26.3N 126.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 20.1N 122.6E GOOD
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 252100UTC 24.6N 124.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 260900UTC 26.3N 126.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 270600UTC 26.8N 127.7E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 250747

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 250600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8
N) ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC
TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (126.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 19.8N, 120.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 19.8N 120.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251800UTC 23.6N 124.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 260600UTC 26.3N 126.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 270600UTC 26.8N 127.7E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 985 HPA
AT 19.8N 120.9E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 23.6N 124.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 26.3N 126.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 26.8N 127.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 250447

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 250300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4
N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (125.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 985 HPA
AT 18.9N 120.9E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 23.2N 123.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 25.6N 125.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 18.9N 120.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 251500UTC 23.2N 123.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 260300UTC 25.6N 125.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 270000UTC 27.1N 127.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 280000UTC 27.4N 126.7E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CO-MAY IS LOCATED AT 18.0N, 120.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 120.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.3N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 25.3N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 25.7N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 121.1E.
25JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162
NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 989 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 250147

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 250000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6
N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (25.0 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (125.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2508 CO-MAY (2508) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 18.0N 120.1E GOOD
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 251200UTC 21.9N 123.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 260000UTC 24.8N 125.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 270000UTC 27.1N 127.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 280000UTC 27.4N 126.7E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 980
HPA
AT 18.0N 120.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 21.9N 123.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 24.8N 125.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 27.1N 127.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 27.4N 126.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 242247

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 242100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1
N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (125.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 975 HPA
AT 17.1N 120.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 21.0N 123.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 24.2N 125.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2508 CO-MAY (2508)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 17.1N 120.1E GOOD
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 250900UTC 21.0N 123.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 252100UTC 24.2N 125.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 261800UTC 27.0N 127.1E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 271800UTC 27.9N 126.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 11W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 120.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.7N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.6N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 25.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 26.3N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 120.6E.
24JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241947

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 241800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC
TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (23.5 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2508 CO-MAY (2508) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 16.9N 119.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 20.0N 122.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 23.3N 124.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 27.0N 127.1E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 27.9N 126.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241647

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 241500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC
TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 980 HPA
AT 16.6N 119.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 19.0N 122.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 22.9N 124.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241347

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 241200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (123.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241047

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST, AND TRACK NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240900
WARNING 240900.
WARNING VALID 250900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 985 HPA
AT 16.4N 118.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 17.7N 120.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 20.6N 123.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 119.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.9N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 240747

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (118.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST, AND TRACK NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 240447

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST, AND TRACK NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOT LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 985 HPA
AT 16.4N 118.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 16.7N 119.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 18.9N 120.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 118.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 118.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.3N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.3N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 25.5N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 118.8E.
24JUL25. TYPHOON 11W (CO-MAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 975 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 232247

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 232100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE
EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 992 HPA
AT 16.7N 117.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 16.5N 119.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 17.6N 120.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231947

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE
ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC
TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231647

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CO-MAY (2508) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE
ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC
ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (22.6 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2508 CO-MAY (2508) 994 HPA
AT 17.5N 118.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 16.7N 118.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 17.0N 119.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 119.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 119.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.8N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.3N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.8N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.9N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.7N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 119.4E.
23JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WIPHA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222121ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.8N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.0N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.1N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 120.1E.
23JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
254 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND
240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WIPHA) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 222130).//
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