Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KROSA-25
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.46 FOR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED AT 43N 166E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
KROSA (2509) HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED AT 43N, 166E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG
VWS. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 43N 166E
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST =


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 42.9N 164.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 041500UTC 43.6N 170.1E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 050300UTC 44.1N 178.3E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.45 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 42.7N, 163.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 040000
WARNING 040000.
WARNING VALID 050000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 990 HPA
AT 42.7N 163.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 43.4N 168.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 44.0N 176.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 42.7N 163.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 041200UTC 43.4N 168.3E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 050000UTC 44.0N 176.3E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 42.2N 161.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 040900UTC 43.2N 166.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 042100UTC 43.6N 173.7E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.44 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 41.9N, 160.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 41.9N 160.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 040600UTC 43.2N 165.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 041800UTC 43.7N 171.9E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 031800
WARNING 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 985 HPA
AT 41.9N 160.3E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 24 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 43.2N 165.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 43.7N 171.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 41.6N 159.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 040300UTC 42.8N 164.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 041500UTC 43.4N 170.1E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.43 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 41.2N, 157.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 41.2N 157.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 040000UTC 42.4N 162.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 041200UTC 43.3N 168.3E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 985 HPA
AT 41.2N 157.4E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 24 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 42.4N 162.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 43.3N 168.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 40.9N 156.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 032100UTC 42.0N 161.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 040900UTC 43.1N 166.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 050600UTC 44.0N 178.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.42 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 40.7N, 154.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 40.7N 154.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 031800UTC 41.7N 159.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 040600UTC 43.0N 165.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 050600UTC 44.0N 178.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 030600
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 40.7N 154.3E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 23 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 41.7N 159.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 43.0N 165.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 44.0N 178.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 40.1N 152.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 031500UTC 41.3N 158.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 25KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 040300UTC 42.5N 163.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 050000UTC 43.4N 174.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250803021825
2025080300 12W KROSA 042 03 065 24 SATL 060
T000 399N 1508E 050 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 145 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 075 NW QD
T012 412N 1565E 045 R034 020 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 424N 1622E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 432N 1680E 030
T048 438N 1742E 025
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 042
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 042
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 39.9N 150.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.9N 150.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 41.2N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 42.4N 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 43.2N 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 43.8N 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 40.2N 152.2E.
03AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
1225073012 290N1432E 40
1225073018 293N1432E 45
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073106 302N1426E 45
1225073112 308N1423E 45
1225073118 316N1420E 45
1225080100 329N1416E 55
1225080100 329N1416E 55
1225080106 337N1415E 55
1225080106 337N1415E 55
1225080112 344N1413E 60
1225080112 344N1413E 60
1225080118 353N1416E 60
1225080118 353N1416E 60
1225080200 364N1425E 60
1225080200 364N1425E 60
1225080206 375N1440E 55
1225080206 375N1440E 55
1225080212 384N1458E 55
1225080212 384N1458E 55
1225080218 390N1479E 55
1225080218 390N1479E 55
1225080300 399N1508E 50
1225080300 399N1508E 50


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.41 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 39.9N, 150.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 39.9N 150.9E FAIR
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 031200UTC 41.0N 156.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 040000UTC 42.2N 162.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 050000UTC 43.4N 174.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 39.9N 150.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 41.0N 156.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 42.2N 162.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 43.4N 174.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 39.4N 149.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 40.6N 155.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 41.8N 160.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 39.4N 149.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030900UTC 40.6N 155.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 032100UTC 41.8N 160.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 041800UTC 42.9N 170.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.40 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 39.1N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 041
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 39.0N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.0N 147.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 40.5N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 41.5N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 42.4N 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 42.9N 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 39.4N 149.3E.
02AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01C (IONA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 39.1N 148.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030600UTC 40.2N 153.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 031800UTC 41.5N 159.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 041800UTC 42.9N 170.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 39.1N 148.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 40.2N 153.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 41.5N 159.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 42.9N 170.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 021500
WARNING 021500.
WARNING VALID 031500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 38.5N 146.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 39.9N 151.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 41.1N 157.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 38.5N 146.9E GOOD
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030300UTC 39.9N 151.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 031500UTC 41.1N 157.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 041200UTC 42.6N 167.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 051200UTC 42.7N 178.9E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.39 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 38.3N, 145.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 38.3N 145.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 39.6N 150.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 40.7N 156.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 42.6N 167.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 42.7N 178.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 38.3N 145.8E GOOD
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030000UTC 39.6N 150.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 031200UTC 40.7N 156.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 041200UTC 42.6N 167.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 051200UTC 42.7N 178.9E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 37.9N 144.9E GOOD
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 022100UTC 39.2N 149.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 030900UTC 40.3N 154.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 040600UTC 42.3N 164.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 050600UTC 42.4N 173.3E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 020900
WARNING 020900.
WARNING VALID 030900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 37.9N 144.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 39.2N 149.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 40.3N 154.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.38 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 37.5N, 143.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, DRY AIR AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 37.5N 143.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 38.9N 147.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 40.2N 153.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 42.3N 164.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 42.4N 173.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 37.5N 143.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021800UTC 38.9N 147.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 030600UTC 40.2N 153.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 040600UTC 42.3N 164.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 050600UTC 42.4N 173.3E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 020300
WARNING 020300.
WARNING VALID 030300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 36.8N 143.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 38.2N 146.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 39.7N 152.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 36.8N 143.0E GOOD
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021500UTC 38.2N 146.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 030300UTC 39.7N 152.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 040000UTC 42.1N 161.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 050000UTC 43.2N 172.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 36.3N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, DRY AIR AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 36.3N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021200UTC 37.8N 145.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 030000UTC 39.4N 150.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 040000UTC 42.1N 161.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 050000UTC 43.2N 172.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 36.3N 142.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 37.8N 145.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 39.4N 150.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 42.1N 161.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 43.2N 172.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 012100
WARNING 012100.
WARNING VALID 022100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 35.7N 142.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 37.3N 144.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 39.0N 148.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 35.7N 142.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020900UTC 37.3N 144.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 022100UTC 39.0N 148.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 031800UTC 41.2N 158.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 041800UTC 42.8N 168.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 35.2N, 141.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS
85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 011800
WARNING 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 35.2N 141.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 36.9N 143.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 38.4N 147.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 41.2N 158.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 42.8N 168.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 35.2N 141.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020600UTC 36.9N 143.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 021800UTC 38.4N 147.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 031800UTC 41.2N 158.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 041800UTC 42.8N 168.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 34.9N 141.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 36.5N 143.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 37.9N 146.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 34.9N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020300UTC 36.5N 143.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 021500UTC 37.9N 146.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 031200UTC 40.1N 156.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 041200UTC 42.5N 166.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 051200UTC 43.8N 177.0E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 34.6N, 141.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER, ITS TEMPORAL SUSPENSION
OF DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT03. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250801131434
2025080112 12W KROSA 036 01 360 06 SATL RADR SYNP 040
T000 343N 1413E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 359N 1426E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 376N 1457E 055 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 390N 1504E 055 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 403N 1559E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 036
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 34.3N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.3N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 35.9N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 37.6N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 39.0N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 40.3N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 141.6E.
01AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
1225073012 290N1432E 40
1225073018 293N1432E 45
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073106 302N1426E 45
1225073112 308N1423E 45
1225073118 316N1420E 45
1225080100 327N1415E 55
1225080100 327N1415E 55
1225080106 337N1413E 55
1225080106 337N1413E 55
1225080112 343N1413E 60
1225080112 343N1413E 60
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 34.3N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.3N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 35.9N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 37.6N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 39.0N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 40.3N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 141.6E.
01AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 977
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 34.6N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 020000UTC 36.0N 142.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 021200UTC 37.4N 145.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 031200UTC 40.1N 156.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 041200UTC 42.5N 166.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 051200UTC 43.8N 177.0E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 34.6N 141.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 36.0N 142.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 37.4N 145.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 40.1N 156.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 42.5N 166.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 43.8N 177.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 010900
WARNING 010900.
WARNING VALID 020900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 34.1N 141.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 35.7N 142.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 37.2N 144.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 34.1N 141.5E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 012100UTC 35.7N 142.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 020900UTC 37.2N 144.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 030600UTC 39.6N 153.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 040600UTC 42.2N 164.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 050600UTC 42.9N 173.1E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 33.7N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 35.4N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250801073448
2025080106 12W KROSA 035 01 350 10 SATL 060
T000 337N 1413E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 354N 1418E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 372N 1441E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 386N 1482E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 403N 1540E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 427N 1643E 035 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 035
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 33.7N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 35.4N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 37.2N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 38.6N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 40.3N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 42.7N 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 34.1N 141.4E.
01AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
1225073012 290N1432E 40
1225073018 293N1432E 45
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073106 302N1426E 45
1225073112 308N1423E 45
1225073118 316N1420E 45
1225080100 327N1415E 55
1225080100 327N1415E 55
1225080106 337N1413E 55
1225080106 337N1413E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 33.6N, 141.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN
TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 33.6N 141.5E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 011800UTC 35.3N 141.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 020600UTC 36.8N 143.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 030600UTC 39.6N 153.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 040600UTC 42.2N 164.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 050600UTC 42.9N 173.1E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 33.6N 141.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 35.3N 141.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 36.8N 143.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 39.6N 153.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 42.2N 164.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 42.9N 173.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 010300
WARNING 010300.
WARNING VALID 020300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 33.2N 141.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 34.7N 141.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 36.4N 143.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 33.2N 141.6E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 011500UTC 34.7N 141.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 020300UTC 36.4N 143.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 030000UTC 38.7N 150.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 040000UTC 41.4N 161.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 050000UTC 42.7N 168.2E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 32.6N, 141.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250801014216
2025080100 12W KROSA 034 01 345 10 SATL 020
T000 326N 1417E 055 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 343N 1416E 060 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 359N 1429E 060 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 373N 1458E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 387N 1504E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 411N 1603E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 034
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 32.6N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.6N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 34.3N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 35.9N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 37.3N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 38.7N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 41.1N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 141.7E.
01AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
1225073012 290N1432E 40
1225073018 293N1432E 45
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073106 302N1426E 45
1225073112 308N1423E 45
1225073118 316N1420E 45
1225080100 326N1417E 55
1225080100 326N1417E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 32.6N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 011200UTC 34.2N 141.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 020000UTC 36.0N 142.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 030000UTC 38.7N 150.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 040000UTC 41.4N 161.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 050000UTC 42.7N 168.2E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 010000
WARNING 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 32.6N 141.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 34.2N 141.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 36.0N 142.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 38.7N 150.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 41.4N 161.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 42.7N 168.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 312100
WARNING 312100.
WARNING VALID 012100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 32.2N 141.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 35.5N 142.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 312100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 312100UTC 32.2N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 35.5N 142.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 021800UTC 37.7N 146.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 031800UTC 40.4N 157.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 041800UTC 41.6N 164.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 051800UTC 43.7N 171.9E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250731193303
2025073118 12W KROSA 033 01 340 08 SATL 020
T000 316N 1420E 045 R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 331N 1415E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 348N 1420E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 363N 1440E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 377N 1476E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 401N 1570E 040 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 415N 1636E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 033
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 31.6N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 33.1N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 34.8N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 36.3N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 37.7N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 40.1N 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 41.5N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 141.9E.
31JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
1225073012 290N1432E 40
1225073018 293N1432E 45
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073106 302N1426E 45
1225073112 308N1423E 45
1225073118 316N1420E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 31.9N, 142.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 311800
WARNING 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 31.9N 142.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 34.9N 141.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 37.7N 146.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 40.4N 157.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 41.6N 164.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 43.7N 171.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311800UTC 31.9N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 34.9N 141.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 021800UTC 37.7N 146.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 031800UTC 40.4N 157.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 041800UTC 41.6N 164.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 051800UTC 43.7N 171.9E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 31.5N 142.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 34.4N 141.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 311500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311500UTC 31.5N 142.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 34.4N 141.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 021200UTC 37.1N 145.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 031200UTC 38.7N 154.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 041200UTC 40.5N 160.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 051200UTC 41.2N 164.6E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250731125941
2025073112 12W KROSA 032 02 340 07 SATL 050
T000 308N 1423E 045 R034 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 323N 1417E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 338N 1414E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 351N 1425E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 367N 1449E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 390N 1532E 040 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 408N 1601E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 032
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 032
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 30.8N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 32.3N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 33.8N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 35.1N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 36.7N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 39.0N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 40.8N 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 142.1E.
31JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
1225073012 290N1432E 40
1225073018 293N1432E 45
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073106 301N1426E 45
1225073112 308N1423E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 30.8N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 32.3N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 33.8N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 35.1N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 36.7N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 39.0N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 40.8N 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 142.1E.
31JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 31.4N, 142.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 311200
WARNING 311200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 31.4N 142.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 34.1N 141.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 37.1N 145.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 38.7N 154.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 40.5N 160.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 41.2N 164.6E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 31.4N 142.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 34.1N 141.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 021200UTC 37.1N 145.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 031200UTC 38.7N 154.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 041200UTC 40.5N 160.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 051200UTC 41.2N 164.6E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 310900
WARNING 310900.
WARNING VALID 010900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 31.1N 142.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 33.7N 141.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 310900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310900UTC 31.1N 142.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 33.7N 141.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 020600UTC 36.7N 144.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 030600UTC 38.7N 151.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 040600UTC 39.7N 157.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 050600UTC 41.0N 162.7E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250731074534
2025073106 12W KROSA 031 02 290 03 SATL 040
T000 301N 1426E 045 R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 315N 1420E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 330N 1414E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 345N 1415E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 360N 1436E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 383N 1508E 045 R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 401N 1581E 035 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 407N 1637E 025
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 30.1N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 142.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 31.5N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 33.0N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 34.5N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 36.0N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 38.3N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 40.1N 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 40.7N 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 142.4E.
31JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
NORTH OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
1225073012 290N1432E 40
1225073018 293N1432E 45
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073106 301N1426E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 30.6N, 142.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 30.6N 142.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 33.3N 141.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 020600UTC 36.7N 144.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 030600UTC 38.7N 151.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 040600UTC 39.7N 157.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 050600UTC 41.0N 162.7E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 310600
WARNING 310600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 30.6N 142.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 33.3N 141.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 36.7N 144.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 38.7N 151.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 39.7N 157.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 41.0N 162.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 310300
WARNING 310300.
WARNING VALID 010300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 30.3N 142.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 33.0N 141.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 310300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310300UTC 30.3N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 33.0N 141.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 020000UTC 36.1N 142.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 030000UTC 38.8N 149.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 040000UTC 40.3N 158.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 050000UTC 40.5N 165.6E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 30.1N, 142.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250731015402
2025073100 12W KROSA 030 02 340 07 SATL 020
T000 300N 1429E 050 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T012 313N 1423E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T024 327N 1415E 060 R050 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T036 343N 1412E 060 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T048 360N 1424E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 075 NW QD
T072 391N 1491E 050 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 414N 1589E 040 R034 100 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 433N 1698E 035 R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 030
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 30.0N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 31.3N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 32.7N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 34.3N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 36.0N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 39.1N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 41.4N 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 43.3N 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 142.8E.
31JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310000Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
1225073012 290N1432E 40
1225073018 293N1432E 45
1225073100 300N1429E 50
1225073100 300N1429E 50


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 30.1N 142.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 32.6N 141.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 020000UTC 36.1N 142.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 030000UTC 38.8N 149.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 040000UTC 40.3N 158.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 050000UTC 40.5N 165.6E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 310000
WARNING 310000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 30.1N 142.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 32.6N 141.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 36.1N 142.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 38.8N 149.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 40.3N 158.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 40.5N 165.6E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 302100
WARNING 302100.
WARNING VALID 312100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 29.9N 143.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 312100UTC AT 32.2N 141.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 29.9N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 312100UTC 32.2N 141.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 011800UTC 34.5N 140.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 021800UTC 37.1N 144.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 031800UTC 39.3N 154.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 041800UTC 40.8N 163.6E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250730194952
2025073018 12W KROSA 029 02 360 03 SATL 020
T000 293N 1432E 045 R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 303N 1427E 050 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T024 316N 1417E 050 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T036 330N 1406E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T048 346N 1409E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T072 375N 1456E 045 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 401N 1547E 040 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 418N 1649E 035 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 29.3N 143.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 143.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 30.3N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 31.6N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 33.0N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 34.6N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 37.5N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 40.1N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 41.8N 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 143.1E.
30JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
1225073012 290N1432E 40
1225073018 293N1432E 45


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 29.4N, 143.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 29.4N 143.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 31.8N 141.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 011800UTC 34.5N 140.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 021800UTC 37.1N 144.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 031800UTC 39.3N 154.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 041800UTC 40.8N 163.6E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 29.4N 143.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 31.8N 141.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 34.5N 140.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 37.1N 144.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 39.3N 154.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 40.8N 163.6E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 301500
WARNING 301500.
WARNING VALID 311500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 29.2N 143.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311500UTC AT 31.2N 141.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 29.2N 143.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 311500UTC 31.2N 141.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 011200UTC 33.4N 139.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 021200UTC 36.2N 140.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 031200UTC 38.4N 148.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 041200UTC 40.3N 155.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250730134650
2025073012 12W KROSA 028 02 320 01 SATL 035
T000 290N 1432E 040 R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 297N 1430E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 308N 1422E 045 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 321N 1410E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 333N 1402E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 361N 1420E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 393N 1496E 035 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 416N 1588E 025
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 29.0N 143.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.0N 143.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 29.7N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 30.8N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 32.1N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 33.3N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 36.1N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 39.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 41.6N 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 143.2E.
30JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
1225073012 290N1432E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 29.2N, 143.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND
WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 29.2N 143.3E GOOD
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 31.0N 142.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 011200UTC 33.4N 139.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 021200UTC 36.2N 140.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 031200UTC 38.4N 148.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 041200UTC 40.3N 155.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 301200
WARNING 301200.
WARNING VALID 311200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
980 HPA
AT 29.2N 143.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 31.0N 142.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 33.4N 139.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 36.2N 140.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 38.4N 148.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 40.3N 155.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 300900
WARNING 300900.
WARNING VALID 310900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 985 HPA
AT 29.2N 143.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310900UTC AT 30.6N 142.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 29.2N 143.2E GOOD
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310900UTC 30.6N 142.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 010600UTC 32.4N 139.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 020600UTC 34.2N 139.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 030600UTC 37.3N 145.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 040600UTC 39.4N 154.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250730075111
2025073006 12W KROSA 027 02 055 03 SATL 030
T000 289N 1433E 040 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 294N 1432E 040 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 302N 1427E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 312N 1418E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 321N 1408E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 348N 1408E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 378N 1460E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 410N 1550E 050 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 28.9N 143.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 143.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.4N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 30.2N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 31.2N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 32.1N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 34.8N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 37.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 41.0N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 143.3E.
30JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1430E 40
1225073006 289N1433E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 28.9N 143.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 143.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.4N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 30.2N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 31.2N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 32.1N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 34.8N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 37.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 41.0N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 143.3E.
30JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 29.0N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 310600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 985 HPA
AT 29.0N 143.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 30.3N 142.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 32.4N 139.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 34.2N 139.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 37.3N 145.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 39.4N 154.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 29.0N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 30.3N 142.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 010600UTC 32.4N 139.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 020600UTC 34.2N 139.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 030600UTC 37.3N 145.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 040600UTC 39.4N 154.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 28.9N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310300UTC 29.8N 142.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 010000UTC 31.4N 140.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 020000UTC 33.4N 138.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 030000UTC 35.9N 142.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 040000UTC 38.4N 151.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250730020234
2025073000 12W KROSA 026 02 360 00 SATL 020
T000 287N 1428E 040 R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 290N 1428E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 296N 1426E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 306N 1419E 045 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 317N 1407E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T072 333N 1394E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T096 367N 1436E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T120 393N 1514E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 28.7N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.0N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 29.6N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 30.6N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 31.7N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 33.3N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 36.7N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 39.3N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 142.8E.
30JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 00
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300000Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
1225073000 287N1428E 40


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.9N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 28.9N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 29.5N 142.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 010000UTC 31.4N 140.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 020000UTC 33.4N 138.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 030000UTC 35.9N 142.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 040000UTC 38.4N 151.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 300000
WARNING 300000.
WARNING VALID 310000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 985 HPA
AT 28.9N 142.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 29.5N 142.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 31.4N 140.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 33.4N 138.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 35.9N 142.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 38.4N 151.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 28.8N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 302100UTC 29.3N 143.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 311800UTC 30.8N 142.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 011800UTC 33.3N 140.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 021800UTC 35.7N 141.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 031800UTC 38.0N 148.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 292100
WARNING 292100.
WARNING VALID 302100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 985 HPA
AT 28.8N 142.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 29.3N 143.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 28.7N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.9N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.3N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250729202330
2025072918 12W KROSA 025 02 360 01 SATL 020
T000 287N 1428E 040 R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 289N 1429E 040 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 293N 1429E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 300N 1426E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 311N 1417E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 333N 1397E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 360N 1422E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 387N 1497E 045 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 28.7N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.9N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.3N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 30.0N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 31.1N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 33.3N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 36.0N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 38.7N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 142.8E.
29JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 45
1225072912 286N1428E 40
1225072918 287N1428E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.8N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 28.8N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 29.3N 142.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 311800UTC 30.8N 142.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 011800UTC 33.3N 140.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 021800UTC 35.7N 141.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 031800UTC 38.0N 148.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 291800
WARNING 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 985 HPA
AT 28.8N 142.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 29.3N 142.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 30.8N 142.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 33.3N 140.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 35.7N 141.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 38.0N 148.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 985 HPA
AT 28.8N 142.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 28.9N 143.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 291500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291500UTC 28.8N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 301500UTC 28.9N 143.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 311200UTC 30.2N 142.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 011200UTC 32.7N 140.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 021200UTC 35.1N 140.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 031200UTC 37.4N 146.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250729140934
2025072912 12W KROSA 024 02 360 01 SATL 040
T000 286N 1429E 050 R050 045 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 065 NW QD
T012 287N 1430E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 289N 1431E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 294N 1431E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T048 304N 1424E 055 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T072 330N 1403E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T096 353N 1411E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 035 NW QD
T120 381N 1477E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 28.7N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.9N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 29.4N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 30.4N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 33.0N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 35.3N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 38.1N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 142.9E.
29JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 434 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291200Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 55
1225072906 285N1429E 55
1225072912 286N1429E 50
1225072912 286N1429E 50


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.7N, 142.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE DISAPPEARANCE
OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN
TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 28.7N 142.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 29.0N 143.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 311200UTC 30.2N 142.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 011200UTC 32.7N 140.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 021200UTC 35.1N 140.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 031200UTC 37.4N 146.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 985 HPA
AT 28.7N 142.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 29.0N 143.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 30.2N 142.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 32.7N 140.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 35.1N 140.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 37.4N 146.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 28.5N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.7N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.9N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.2N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 29.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 31.7N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 34.1N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 36.6N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 142.9E.
29JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 290900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250729082803
2025072906 12W KROSA 023 02 360 02 SATL 060
T000 285N 1429E 055 R050 045 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 287N 1429E 055 R050 050 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 289N 1429E 060 R050 050 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 292N 1429E 060 R050 050 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 298N 1426E 060 R050 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 317N 1410E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 341N 1405E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 366N 1445E 055 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 28.5N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.7N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.9N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.2N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 29.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 31.7N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 34.1N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 36.6N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 142.9E.
29JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072806 269N1441E 70
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072812 274N1436E 60
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072818 279N1432E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072900 283N1429E 50
1225072906 285N1429E 55
1225072906 285N1429E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 28.7N 142.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 28.9N 143.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 28.7N 142.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 300900UTC 28.9N 143.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 310600UTC 29.7N 142.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 010600UTC 31.8N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 020600UTC 33.6N 139.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 030600UTC 35.9N 143.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.5N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 28.5N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291800UTC 28.7N 142.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 300600UTC 28.7N 142.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 310600UTC 29.7N 142.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 010600UTC 31.8N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 020600UTC 33.6N 139.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 030600UTC 35.9N 143.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 290600
WARNING 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 28.5N 142.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 28.7N 142.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 28.7N 142.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 29.7N 142.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 31.8N 141.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 33.6N 139.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 35.9N 143.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 290300
WARNING 290300.
WARNING VALID 300300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 28.2N 142.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 28.7N 142.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 28.6N 143.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 28.2N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 291500UTC 28.7N 142.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 300300UTC 28.6N 143.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 310000UTC 29.0N 143.2E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 010000UTC 30.3N 142.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 020000UTC 32.3N 139.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 030000UTC 34.2N 141.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 27.8N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT21 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND
LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 27.8N 143.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 28.7N 142.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 28.7N 143.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 29.0N 143.2E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 30.3N 142.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 32.3N 139.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 34.2N 141.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 27.8N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 291200UTC 28.7N 142.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 300000UTC 28.7N 143.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 310000UTC 29.0N 143.2E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 010000UTC 30.3N 142.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 020000UTC 32.3N 139.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 030000UTC 34.2N 141.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 282100
WARNING 282100.
WARNING VALID 292100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 975 HPA
AT 27.8N 143.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 28.5N 142.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 28.7N 142.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 27.8N 143.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 290900UTC 28.5N 142.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 292100UTC 28.7N 142.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 301800UTC 28.7N 142.9E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 311800UTC 29.2N 142.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 011800UTC 31.4N 141.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 021800UTC 33.7N 141.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 143.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975
HPA
AT 27.5N 143.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 28.5N 142.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 28.7N 142.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 28.7N 142.9E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 29.2N 142.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 31.4N 141.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 33.7N 141.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 27.5N 143.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 290600UTC 28.5N 142.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 291800UTC 28.7N 142.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 301800UTC 28.7N 142.9E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 311800UTC 29.2N 142.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 011800UTC 31.4N 141.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 021800UTC 33.7N 141.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 281500
WARNING 281500.
WARNING VALID 291500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 970 HPA
AT 27.3N 143.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 28.3N 142.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 28.5N 142.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 27.3N 143.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 290300UTC 28.3N 142.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 291500UTC 28.5N 142.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 301200UTC 28.6N 142.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 311200UTC 28.8N 142.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 011200UTC 30.6N 142.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 021200UTC 32.9N 141.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 27.2N, 144.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS
85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 27.5N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 28.4N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.6N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 28.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 29.5N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 30.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 31.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 143.5E.
28JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250728132104
2025072812 12W KROSA 020 02 320 11 SATL 030
T000 275N 1437E 060 R050 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 230 SE QD 085 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 284N 1428E 055 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 286N 1426E 050 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 288N 1426E 045 R034 090 NE QD 200 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 292N 1428E 045 R034 080 NE QD 200 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 295N 1429E 055 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 190 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 300N 1431E 060 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 319N 1440E 060 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 27.5N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 28.4N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.6N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 28.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 29.5N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 30.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 31.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 143.5E.
28JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072800 260N1449E 80
1225072806 267N1445E 70
1225072806 267N1445E 70
1225072806 267N1445E 70
1225072812 275N1437E 60
1225072812 275N1437E 60
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 27.2N 144.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290000UTC 28.2N 143.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 291200UTC 28.4N 142.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 301200UTC 28.6N 142.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 311200UTC 28.8N 142.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 011200UTC 30.6N 142.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 021200UTC 32.9N 141.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 970 HPA
AT 27.2N 144.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 28.2N 143.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 28.4N 142.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 28.6N 142.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 28.8N 142.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 30.6N 142.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 32.9N 141.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 280900
WARNING 280900.
WARNING VALID 290900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 27.1N 144.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 28.1N 143.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 28.5N 143.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 27.1N 144.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 282100UTC 28.1N 143.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 290900UTC 28.5N 143.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 300600UTC 28.4N 143.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 310600UTC 29.3N 144.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 010600UTC 32.0N 143.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 020600UTC 34.5N 143.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 280900 AMD
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250728081456
2025072806 12W KROSA 019A 02 325 07 SATL 020
T000 267N 1445E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 015 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 025 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 175 SE QD 075 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 280N 1434E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 286N 1428E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 287N 1427E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 180 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 289N 1430E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 294N 1437E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 308N 1444E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 325N 1454E 065 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 019A AMENDED AND RELOCATED
1. TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 019A AMENDED AND RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 26.7N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 28.0N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 28.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.7N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.9N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 29.4N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 30.8N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 32.5N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 144.2E.
28JUL25. TYPHOON 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT AND RELOCATION: CORRECTED INITIAL
POSITION TO 26.7N 144.5E, RESULTING IN A FORECAST TRACK SHIFT SOUTH.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 261N1450E 80
1225072800 261N1450E 80
1225072800 261N1450E 80
1225072806 267N1445E 70
1225072806 267N1445E 70
1225072806 267N1445E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 26.9N, 144.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250728073452
2025072806 12W KROSA 019 02 350 26 SATL 020
T000 287N 1445E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 015 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 025 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 175 SE QD 075 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 298N 1437E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 304N 1429E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 307N 1428E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 180 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 309N 1433E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 315N 1442E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 333N 1453E 065 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 356N 1463E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 28.7N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 29.8N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.4N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 30.7N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 30.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 31.5N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 33.3N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 35.6N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 144.3E.
28JUL25. TYPHOON 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 26 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 261N1450E 80
1225072800 261N1450E 80
1225072800 261N1450E 80
1225072806 287N1445E 70
1225072806 287N1445E 70
1225072806 287N1445E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 28.7N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 29.8N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.4N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 30.7N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 30.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 31.5N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 33.3N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 35.6N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 144.3E.
28JUL25. TYPHOON 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 26 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 26.9N 144.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281800UTC 28.0N 143.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 290600UTC 28.5N 142.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 300600UTC 28.4N 143.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 310600UTC 29.3N 144.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 010600UTC 32.0N 143.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 020600UTC 34.5N 143.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 26.9N 144.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 28.0N 143.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 28.5N 142.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 28.4N 143.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 29.3N 144.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 32.0N 143.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 34.5N 143.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 280300
WARNING 280300.
WARNING VALID 290300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 26.4N 144.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 27.7N 143.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 28.2N 142.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 26.4N 144.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281500UTC 27.7N 143.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 290300UTC 28.2N 142.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 300000UTC 28.3N 143.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 310000UTC 28.5N 144.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 010000UTC 31.2N 146.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 020000UTC 34.4N 146.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 25.9N, 145.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT18 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WEAK VWS
AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250728005147
2025072800 12W KROSA 018 02 355 14 SATL 025
T000 258N 1452E 080 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 274N 1443E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 282N 1433E 075 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 286N 1431E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 180 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 291N 1439E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 301N 1449E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 313N 1458E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 329N 1467E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 25.8N 145.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 145.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 27.4N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 28.2N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.6N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 29.1N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 30.1N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 31.3N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 32.9N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 145.0E.
28JUL25. TYPHOON 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS
962 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z. REFER
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072706 217N1451E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072800 258N1452E 80
1225072800 258N1452E 80
1225072800 258N1452E 80
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 25.9N 145.2E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281200UTC 27.4N 144.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 290000UTC 28.1N 142.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 300000UTC 28.3N 143.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 310000UTC 28.5N 144.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 010000UTC 31.2N 146.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 020000UTC 34.4N 146.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 25.9N 145.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 27.4N 144.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 28.1N 142.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 28.3N 143.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 28.5N 144.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 31.2N 146.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 34.4N 146.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 272100
WARNING 272100.
WARNING VALID 282100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 25.2N 145.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 26.9N 144.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 28.1N 143.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 25.2N 145.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280900UTC 26.9N 144.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 282100UTC 28.1N 143.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 291800UTC 28.3N 143.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 301800UTC 28.3N 144.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 311800UTC 30.2N 146.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 011800UTC 33.5N 147.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 272113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 17
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
713 AM ChST Mon Jul 28 2025

...TYPHOON KROSA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN CNMI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Tropical Storm Krosa has strengthened to a typhoon.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...24.9N 145.2E

About 245 miles east of Iwo To
About 425 miles north of Agrihan
About 470 miles north of Pagan
About 675 miles north of Saipan
About 790 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...90 mph
Present movement...north...360 degrees at 17 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Krosa was
located near Latitude 24.9 degrees North and Longitude
145.2 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 17 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the north-northwest with a
decrease in forward speed through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 mph. Krosa is
forecast to intensify through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 220 miles to the east and up to 150 miles to the
west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Krosa, as it exit Guam's Area of Responsibility
(AOR) within the next 2 hours.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 24.3N, 145.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 272100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250727191642
2025072718 12W KROSA 017 02 360 15 SATL 040
T000 244N 1453E 080 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 265N 1449E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 278N 1443E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 285N 1440E 085 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 289N 1440E 075 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 294N 1446E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 305N 1455E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 321N 1464E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 24.4N 145.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 145.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 26.5N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.8N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 28.5N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.4N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 30.5N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 32.1N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 145.2E.
27JUL25. TYPHOON 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 716 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS
964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. REFER
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 215N1450E 65
1225072706 215N1450E 65
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072712 229N1453E 75
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
1225072718 244N1453E 80
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 24.3N 145.3E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280600UTC 26.7N 144.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 281800UTC 27.9N 143.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 291800UTC 28.3N 143.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 301800UTC 28.3N 144.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 311800UTC 30.2N 146.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 011800UTC 33.5N 147.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 24.3N 145.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 26.7N 144.8E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 27.9N 143.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 28.3N 143.0E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 28.3N 144.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 30.2N 146.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 33.5N 147.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 271637
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
237 AM ChST Mon Jul 28 2025

...KROSA UPGRADED TO TYPHOON AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Krosa has been upgraded to a Typhoon.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...23.3N 145.4E

About 315 miles north of Agrihan
About 360 miles north of Pagan
About 395 miles north of Alamagan
About 480 miles north of Anatahan
About 565 miles north of Saipan
About 680 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...80 mph
Present movement...north-northeast...15 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Typhoon Krosa was
located near Latitude 23.3 degrees North and Longitude
145.4 degrees East. Krosa is moving north-northeast at 15 mph. It
is expected to make a turn toward the north-northwest with a
slight decrease in forward speed through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 80 mph. Krosa is
forecast to weaken through tonight, but remain a typhoon into early
Wednesday morning.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 45 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
195 miles to the east and up to 155 miles to the west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan, Guam at 800 AM ChST this morning.

$$

Montvila


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 271500
WARNING 271500.
WARNING VALID 281500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 23.8N 145.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 26.2N 145.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 27.8N 144.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 23.8N 145.8E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 280300UTC 26.2N 145.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 281500UTC 27.8N 144.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 291200UTC 28.5N 143.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 301200UTC 28.6N 144.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 311200UTC 30.4N 146.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 011200UTC 33.9N 147.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250727134337
2025072712 12W KROSA 016 02 015 13 SATL 040
T000 227N 1454E 060 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 251N 1452E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 269N 1445E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 200 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 278N 1440E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 283N 1438E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 287N 1443E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 295N 1452E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 312N 1461E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 25.1N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 26.9N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.8N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.3N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.7N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 29.5N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 31.2N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 145.4E.
27JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTH OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 215N1450E 60
1225072706 215N1450E 60
1225072712 227N1454E 60
1225072712 227N1454E 60
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 23.3N, 145.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 23.3N 145.5E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 280000UTC 25.5N 145.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 281200UTC 27.5N 144.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 291200UTC 28.5N 143.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 301200UTC 28.6N 144.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 311200UTC 30.4N 146.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 011200UTC 33.9N 147.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 271200
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 23.3N 145.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 25.5N 145.7E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 27.5N 144.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 28.5N 143.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 28.6N 144.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 30.4N 146.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 33.9N 147.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 270900
WARNING 270900.
WARNING VALID 280900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 22.7N 145.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 24.9N 145.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 26.9N 145.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 22.7N 145.5E FAIR
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 272100UTC 24.9N 145.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 280900UTC 26.9N 145.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 290600UTC 28.4N 143.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 300600UTC 28.7N 144.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 310600UTC 29.8N 145.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 010600UTC 32.9N 145.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 270903
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
703 PM ChST Sun Jul 27 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA MOVING NORTH AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
CNMI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
The Tropical Storm Warning for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan is
cancelled.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The Tropical Storm Warning for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan is
cancelled.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...22.1N 145.0E

About 235 miles north of Agrihan
About 280 miles north of Pagan
About 315 miles north of Alamagan
About 400 miles north of Anatahan
About 485 miles north of Saipan
About 595 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...70 mph
Present movement...north...360 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM ChST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 22.1 degrees North and Longitude
145.0 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 12 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course and speed through
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 70 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Monday, possibly becoming a typhoon tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
190 miles to the east and up to 115 miles to the west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Monday morning.

$$

Slagle


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250727073907
2025072706 12W KROSA 015 02 360 10 SATL 040
T000 215N 1450E 060 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 165 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 240N 1451E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 261N 1446E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 210 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 275N 1439E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 200 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 280N 1436E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 285N 1438E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 180 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 291N 1446E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 301N 1457E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.0N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 26.1N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.5N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 28.0N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.5N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 29.1N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 30.1N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 145.0E.
27JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072700 205N1450E 60
1225072706 215N1450E 60
1225072706 215N1450E 60
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 21.3N, 145.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STRONG VWS AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE
SAME WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW
TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 21.3N 145.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 24.2N 145.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 26.7N 145.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 28.4N 143.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 28.7N 144.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 29.8N 145.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 32.9N 145.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 21.3N 145.5E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 271800UTC 24.2N 145.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 280600UTC 26.7N 145.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 290600UTC 28.4N 143.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 300600UTC 28.7N 144.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 310600UTC 29.8N 145.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 010600UTC 32.9N 145.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 270644
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
444 PM ChST Sun Jul 27 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA MOVING NORTH AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan
and Agrihan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are imminent or
occurring.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...21.5N 145.0E

About 195 miles north-northwest of Agrihan
About 240 miles north-northwest of Pagan
About 275 miles north of Alamagan
About 360 miles north of Anatahan
About 445 miles north of Saipan
About 555 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...70 mph
Present movement...north...10 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM ChST...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 21.5 degrees North and Longitude
145.0 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 12 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest on
Monday with little change in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 70 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Monday possibly becoming a typhoon.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
175 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST.

$$

Slagle


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 270300
WARNING 270300.
WARNING VALID 280300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 20.6N 145.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 23.3N 145.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 26.1N 145.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 20.6N 145.4E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 271500UTC 23.3N 145.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 280300UTC 26.1N 145.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 290000UTC 28.3N 144.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 300000UTC 28.6N 143.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 310000UTC 29.0N 145.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 010000UTC 31.6N 146.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 270321
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
121 PM ChST Sun Jul 27 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan
and Agrihan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are imminent or
occurring.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.7N 145.2E

About 140 miles north-northwest of Agrihan
About 180 miles north of Pagan
About 215 miles north of Alamagan
About 300 miles north of Anatahan
About 385 miles north of Saipan
About 500 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...70 mph
Present movement...north-northeast...25 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 20.7 degrees North and Longitude
145.2 degrees East. Krosa is moving north-northeast at 12 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the north with little
change in forward speed through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph. Krosa is
forecast to intensify through tonight likely becoming a
typhoon by early this evening.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
175 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM ChST.

$$

Slagle


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 145.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 145.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.3N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250727020916
2025072700 12W KROSA 014 02 025 10 SATL 045
T000 202N 1451E 060 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 223N 1454E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 244N 1453E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 259N 1448E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 268N 1443E 065 R064 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 278N 1441E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 150 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 289N 1450E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 298N 1460E 080 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 145.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 145.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.3N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.4N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.9N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.8N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.8N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 28.9N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 145.2E.
27JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 270000Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND
280300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072700 202N1451E 60
1225072700 202N1451E 60
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 20.4N, 145.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SAME WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 270058
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1058 AM ChST Sun Jul 27 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA MOVING NORTH AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan
and Agrihan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are imminent or
occurring.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.2N 145.1E

About 105 miles north-northwest of Agrihan
About 150 miles north-northwest of Pagan
About 185 miles north-northwest of Alamagan
About 270 miles north of Anatahan
About 355 miles north of Saipan
About 360 miles north of Tinian
About 415 miles north of Rota
About 465 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...65 mph
Present movement...north...5 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CHST...0100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 20.2 degrees North and Longitude
145.1 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 9 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course with a slight increase
in forward speed through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 65 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through tonight possibly becoming a typhoon.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
260 miles to the southwest and up to 225 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 500 PM ChST.

$$

Slagle


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 20.4N 145.4E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 271200UTC 23.0N 145.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 280000UTC 25.7N 145.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 290000UTC 28.3N 144.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 300000UTC 28.6N 143.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 310000UTC 29.0N 145.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 010000UTC 31.6N 146.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 270000
WARNING 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 965 HPA
AT 20.4N 145.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 23.0N 145.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 25.7N 145.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 28.3N 144.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 28.6N 143.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 29.0N 145.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 31.6N 146.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 262100
WARNING 262100.
WARNING VALID 272100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) 970 HPA
AT 20.0N 145.5E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 22.3N 145.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 24.9N 145.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 20.0N 145.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHWEST 240NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 270900UTC 22.3N 145.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 272100UTC 24.9N 145.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 281800UTC 27.9N 144.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 291800UTC 28.7N 143.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 301800UTC 29.0N 144.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 311800UTC 30.8N 145.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 262119
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KROSA (12W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP122025
719 AM CHST SUN JUL 27 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA MOVING NORTH AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN, PAGAN
AND AGRIHAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH, ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 144.8E

ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 130 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 245 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN
ABOUT 330 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT 390 MILES NORTH OF ROTA
ABOUT 435 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.8 DEGREES
EAST. KROSA IS MOVING NORTH AT 9 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS
GENERAL COURSE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH
MONDAY, THEN MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. KROSA IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AS EARLY AS
MONDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO
260 MILES TO THE SOUTH AND UP TO 110 MILES TO THE NORTH.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 PM CHST.

$$

KLEESCHULTE=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 262100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250726203805
2025072618 12W KROSA 013 02 005 08 SATL 035
T000 193N 1447E 055 R050 045 NE QD 110 SE QD 125 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 195 SE QD 225 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 214N 1451E 065 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 236N 1453E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 210 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 256N 1449E 060 R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 267N 1442E 055 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 277N 1437E 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 288N 1445E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 297N 1455E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.4N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.6N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 25.6N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.7N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.7N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 28.8N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 29.7N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 144.8E.
26JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 996 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z
IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072612 185N1446E 50
1225072618 193N1447E 55
1225072618 193N1447E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 19.5N, 145.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 261856
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
456 AM ChST Sun Jul 27 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan
and Agrihan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 74 mph, are imminent or
occurring.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.5N 145.0E

About 65 miles northwest of Agrihan
About 105 miles north-northwest of Pagan
About 140 miles north-northwest of Alamagan
About 220 miles north of Anatahan
About 305 miles north of Saipan
About 315 miles north of Tinian
About 370 miles north of Rota
About 415 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...60 mph
Present movement...north-northeast...30 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 19.5 degrees North and Longitude
145.0 degrees East. Krosa is moving north-northeast at 8 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the north with an increase
in forward speed through Monday, then slow down again on Tuesday.
This forecast track would take Krosa near Farallon de Pajaros
around noon today.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 60 mph. Krosa is forecast to
maintain this intensity through Monday, then begin to gradually
strengthen again.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
260 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 AM ChST.

$$

Schank


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 261800
WARNING 261800.
WARNING VALID 271800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2509 KROSA (2509) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA
AT 19.5N 145.2E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 21.7N 145.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 24.2N 145.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 27.9N 144.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 28.7N 143.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 29.0N 144.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 30.8N 145.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2509 KROSA (2509) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 19.5N 145.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHWEST 240NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 270600UTC 21.7N 145.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 271800UTC 24.2N 145.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 281800UTC 27.9N 144.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 291800UTC 28.7N 143.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 301800UTC 29.0N 144.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 311800UTC 30.8N 145.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 261500
WARNING 261500.
WARNING VALID 271500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 980 HPA
AT 18.7N 145.4E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 21.5N 145.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 23.9N 145.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 18.7N 145.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 350NM SOUTHWEST 240NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 270300UTC 21.5N 145.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 271500UTC 23.9N 145.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 281200UTC 27.7N 144.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 291200UTC 28.7N 143.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 301200UTC 29.1N 143.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 311200UTC 29.5N 144.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 261510
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
110 AM ChST Sun Jul 27 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan
and Agrihan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 74 mph, are imminent or
occurring.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.0N 144.7E

About 65 miles west-northwest of Agrihan
About 90 miles northwest of Pagan
About 120 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 275 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 285 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 335 miles north of Rota
About 380 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...60 mph
Present movement...north-northeast...30 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was
located near Latitude 19.0 degrees North and Longitude 144.7 degrees
East. Krosa is moving north-northeast at 8 mph. It is expected to
make a slight turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed
through Monday, then slow down again on Tuesday. This forecast track
would take Krosa near Farallon de Pajaros around noon today.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 60 mph. Krosa is forecast to
maintain this intensity through Monday, then begin to gradually
strengthen again.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
260 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12W NWP 250726132516
2025072612 12W KROSA 012 03 030 07 SATL 020
T000 185N 1445E 050 R050 050 NE QD 115 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 225 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 205N 1451E 050 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 228N 1452E 050 R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 250N 1451E 055 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 267N 1445E 055 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 279N 1435E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 288N 1442E 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 297N 1456E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 18.5N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.5N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.8N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 25.0N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 26.7N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 27.9N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.8N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 29.7N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 144.7E.
26JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 71 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1225072218 126N1460E 20
1225072300 129N1453E 20
1225072306 130N1448E 20
1225072312 131N1443E 20
1225072318 132N1440E 25
1225072400 139N1437E 30
1225072406 151N1434E 30
1225072412 157N1433E 35
1225072418 163N1433E 35
1225072500 169N1434E 40
1225072506 172N1435E 40
1225072512 175N1436E 45
1225072518 177N1434E 45
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072600 178N1437E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072606 179N1441E 50
1225072612 185N1445E 50
1225072612 185N1445E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 145.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 261250
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1050 PM ChST Sat Jul 26 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA APPROACHING AGRIHAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan
and Agrihan.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 74 mph, are imminent or occurring.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...18.5N 144.5E

About 80 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 85 miles west-northwest of Pagan
About 105 miles northwest of Alamagan
About 165 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 245 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 345 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...60 mph
Present movement...east-northeast...75 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 18.5 degrees North and Longitude
144.5 degrees East. Krosa is moving east-northeast at 5 mph. It
is expected to make a turn toward the north with an increase in
forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 60 mph. Krosa is forecast to
maintain this intensity through Sunday, then begin to slowly
strengthen.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
145 miles to the south and up to 115 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Sunday morning followed by
an intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 18.1N 145.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 240NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 270000UTC 20.9N 145.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 271200UTC 23.4N 145.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 281200UTC 27.7N 144.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 291200UTC 28.7N 143.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 301200UTC 29.1N 143.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 311200UTC 29.5N 144.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 261200
WARNING 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 985 HPA
AT 18.1N 145.2E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 20.9N 145.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 23.4N 145.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 27.7N 144.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 28.7N 143.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 29.1N 143.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 29.5N 144.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 260900
WARNING 260900.
WARNING VALID 270900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 990 HPA
AT 18.0N 144.5E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 20.5N 145.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 22.9N 145.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 18.0N 144.5E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 240NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 262100UTC 20.5N 145.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 270900UTC 22.9N 145.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 280600UTC 26.9N 144.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 290600UTC 28.0N 143.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 300600UTC 28.6N 143.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 310600UTC 29.6N 144.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 260900
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
700 PM ChST Sat Jul 26 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA WEST OF PAGAN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan
and Agrihan.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.3N 144.3E

About 95 miles west of Pagan
About 95 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 110 miles west-northwest of Alamagan
About 160 miles north-northwest of Anatahan
About 240 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 335 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...60 mph
Present movement...east-northeast...75 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 18.3 degrees North and Longitude
144.3 degrees East. Krosa is moving east-northeast at 5 mph. It
is expected to make a turn toward the north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 60 mph. Krosa is forecast to
maintain this intensity through Sunday, then begin to slowly
strengthen.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
145 miles to the south and up to 115 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Sunday morning.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 18.0N, 144.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 18.0N 144.3E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 240NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 261800UTC 20.1N 145.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 270600UTC 22.4N 145.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 280600UTC 26.9N 144.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 290600UTC 28.0N 143.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 300600UTC 28.6N 143.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 310600UTC 29.6N 144.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 990 HPA
AT 18.0N 144.3E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 20.1N 145.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 22.4N 145.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 26.9N 144.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 28.0N 143.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 28.6N 143.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 29.6N 144.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 260642
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
442 PM ChST Sat Jul 26 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF PAGAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan
and Agrihan.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.9N 144.1E

About 110 miles west of Pagan
About 115 miles west of Alamagan
About 120 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 150 miles northwest of Anatahan
About 220 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 310 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...60 mph
Present movement...east-southeast...70 degrees at 3 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 17.9 degrees North and Longitude
144.1 degrees East. Krosa is moving east-southeast at 3 mph. It
is expected to make a turn toward the north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 60 mph. Krosa is forecast to
maintain this intensity through Sunday, then begin to slowly
strengthen.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
230 miles to the south and up to 115 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 PM ChST followed by an intermediate advisory at 1100
PM ChST.

$$

Kleeschulte


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 260300
WARNING 260300.
WARNING VALID 270300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 990 HPA
AT 17.7N 144.0E MARIANAS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 19.7N 145.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 22.1N 145.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 17.7N 144.0E FAIR
MOVE SSE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 261500UTC 19.7N 145.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 270300UTC 22.1N 145.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 280000UTC 26.4N 145.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 290000UTC 28.6N 144.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 300000UTC 29.5N 145.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 310000UTC 30.4N 148.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 260309
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
109 PM ChST Sat Jul 26 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA NEARLY STATIONARY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and
Agrihan.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are occurring or imminent.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.1N 143.9E

About 125 miles west of Pagan
About 125 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 130 miles west-northwest of Alamagan
About 165 miles northwest of Anatahan
About 240 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 325 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...60 mph
Present movement...east-northeast...70 degrees at 3 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was
located near Latitude 18.1 degrees North and Longitude 143.9 degrees
East. Krosa is moving east-northeast at 3 mph. It is expected to make
a turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed
through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph. Krosa is forecast
to maintain this intensity through Sunday afternoon, then begin to
slowly strengthen.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
230 miles to the south and up to 115 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM ChST.

$$

Kleeschulte


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 17.7N, 143.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION
OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2509 KROSA (2509) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 17.7N 143.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 261200UTC 19.4N 145.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 270000UTC 21.5N 145.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 280000UTC 26.4N 145.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 290000UTC 28.6N 144.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 300000UTC 29.5N 145.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 310000UTC 30.4N 148.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 260000
WARNING 260000.
WARNING VALID 270000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 17.7N 143.5E MARIANAS ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 19.4N 145.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 21.5N 145.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 26.4N 145.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 28.6N 144.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 29.5N 145.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 30.4N 148.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 260046
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1046 AM ChST Sat Jul 26 2025

...TS KROSA WEST OF ALAMAGAN AND NEARLY STATIONARY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan
and Agrihan.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are occurring or imminent.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CHST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.8N 143.7E

About 140 miles west of Alamagan
About 140 miles west of Pagan
About 145 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 165 miles northwest of Anatahan
About 230 miles northwest of Saipan
About 305 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...50 mph
Present movement...nearly stationary.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM CHST...0100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was
repositioned slightly further south, located near Latitude 17.8
degrees North and Longitude 143.7 degrees East, and is nearly
stationary. It is expected to make a turn toward the north-northeast
with an increase in forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 mph. Krosa is forecast to
gradually intensify through Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
200 miles to the south and up to 80 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 500 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 252100
WARNING 252100.
WARNING VALID 262100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 992 HPA
AT 18.0N 143.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 20.8N 145.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 18.0N 143.8E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 20.8N 145.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 271800UTC 25.2N 146.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 281800UTC 28.2N 145.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 291800UTC 29.4N 146.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 301800UTC 30.5N 148.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 252144
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
744 AM ChST Sat Jul 26 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA WEST OF PAGAN AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and
Agrihan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected in
the next 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring or
expected to occur shortly at Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.0N 143.6E

About 145 miles west of Pagan
About 145 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 150 miles west of Alamagan
About 175 miles northwest of Anatahan
About 245 miles northwest of Saipan
About 245 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 285 miles north-northwest of Rota
About 320 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...50 mph
Present movement...northwest...315 degrees at 3 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 18.0 degrees North and Longitude
143.6 degrees East. Krosa is moving northwest at 3 mph. It is
expected to make a turn toward the north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Sunday. Strong tropical storm force winds are
currently expected to remain west of Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
200 miles to the south and up to 80 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Schank


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 17.7N, 143.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STRONG VWS AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 251928 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
528 AM ChST Sat Jul 26 2025

Corrected minor typo.

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA WEST OF PAGAN AND MOVING NORTHWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are occurring or
expected to occur shortly.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.7N 143.4E

About 160 miles west of Alamagan
About 160 miles west of Pagan
About 165 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 175 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 235 miles northwest of Saipan
About 240 miles northwest of Tinian
About 270 miles north-northwest of Rota
About 305 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...50 mph
Present movement...northeast...345 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 17.7 degrees North and Longitude
143.4 degrees East. Krosa has slowed and wobbled over the last few
hours, but is starting to move northwest at 5 mph. It is expected to
turn toward the north-northeast with a slight increase in forward
speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
220 miles to the south and up to 60 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 AM ChST.

$$

Schank


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 251907
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
507 AM ChST Sat Jul 26 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA WEST OF PAGAN AND MOVING NORTHWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are occurring or
expected to occur shortly.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.7N 143.4E

About 160 miles west of Alamagan
About 160 miles west of Pagan
About 165 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 175 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 235 miles northwest of Saipan
About 240 miles northwest of Tinian
About 270 miles north-northwest of Rota
About 305 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...50 mph
Present movement...northeast...345 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 17.7 degrees North and Longitude
143.4 degrees East. Krosa has slowed and wobbled over the last few
hours, but is to starting move northwest at 5 mph. It is expected to
make a slight turn toward the north-northeast with a slight increase
in forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
220 miles to the south and up to 60 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 AM ChST.

$$

Schank


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 17.7N 143.6E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 20.3N 145.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 271800UTC 25.2N 146.0E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 281800UTC 28.2N 145.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 291800UTC 29.4N 146.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 301800UTC 30.5N 148.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 992 HPA
AT 17.7N 143.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 20.3N 145.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 25.2N 146.0E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 28.2N 145.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 29.4N 146.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 30.5N 148.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 251500
WARNING 251500.
WARNING VALID 261500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 992 HPA
AT 17.5N 143.6E MARIANAS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 20.1N 145.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 17.5N 143.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 261500UTC 20.1N 145.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 271200UTC 24.1N 146.1E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 281200UTC 27.9N 146.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 291200UTC 29.0N 147.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 301200UTC 30.1N 150.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 251532
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
132 AM ChST Sat Jul 26 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA NOW WEST OF PAGAN AND MOVING NORTHEAST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within
the next 24 hours, which will most likely occur early this morning.
Tropical storm force winds could be imminent at Alamagan.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.0N 143.8E

About 130 miles west of Pagan
About 130 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 135 miles west-northwest of Alamagan
About 165 miles northwest of Anatahan
About 235 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 240 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 280 miles north-northwest of Rota
About 320 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...50 mph
Present movement...northeast...35 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was
located near Latitude 18.0 degrees North and Longitude 143.8 degrees
East. Krosa is moving northeast at 7 mph. It is expected to make a
slight turn toward the north-northeast with a slight increase in
forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph. Krosa is
forecast to intensify through Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
220 miles to the south and up to 60 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 17.5N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 251313 CCB
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1113 PM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

Corrected time in Discussion and Outlook section.

...TS KROSA WEST OF ALAMAGAN CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within
the next 24 hours, which will most likely occur later tonight.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...17.8N 143.7E

About 140 miles west of Alamagan
About 140 miles west of Pagan
About 145 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 165 miles northwest of Anatahan
About 230 miles northwest of Saipan
About 305 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 17.8 degrees North and Longitude
143.7 degrees East. Krosa is moving north-northwest at 5 mph. It
is expected to make a turn toward the north-northeast with a
slight increase in forward speed through Saturday then start
moving north.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Sunday, when it could briefly become a typhoon
north of Agrihan and Maug.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
205 miles to the southwest and up to 125 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Saturday morning followed by
an intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 251312 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1112 PM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

Corrected time in Disscussion and Outlook section.

...TS KROSA WEST OF ALAMAGAN CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within
the next 24 hours, which will most likely occur later tonight.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...17.8N 143.7E

About 140 miles west of Alamagan
About 140 miles west of Pagan
About 145 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 165 miles northwest of Anatahan
About 230 miles northwest of Saipan
About 305 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 17.8 degrees North and Longitude
143.7 degrees East. Krosa is moving north-northwest at 5 mph. It
is expected to make a turn toward the north-northeast with a
slight increase in forward speed through Saturday then start
moving north.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Sunday, when it could briefly become a typhoon
north of Agrihan and Maug.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
205 miles to the southwest and up to 125 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Saturday morning followed by
an intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 251200
WARNING 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 992 HPA
AT 17.5N 143.1E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 19.6N 144.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 24.1N 146.1E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 27.9N 146.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 29.0N 147.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 30.1N 150.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 17.5N 143.1E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 19.6N 144.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 271200UTC 24.1N 146.1E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 281200UTC 27.9N 146.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 291200UTC 29.0N 147.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 301200UTC 30.1N 150.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 251246
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1046 PM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

...TS KROSA WEST OF ALAMAGAN CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within
the next 24 hours, which will most likely occur later tonight.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...17.8N 143.7E

About 140 miles west of Alamagan
About 140 miles west of Pagan
About 145 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 165 miles northwest of Anatahan
About 230 miles northwest of Saipan
About 305 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 17.8 degrees North and Longitude
143.7 degrees East. Krosa is moving north-northwest at 5 mph. It
is expected to make a turn toward the north-northeast with a
slight increase in forward speed through Saturday then start
moving north.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Sunday, when it could briefly become a typhoon
north of Agrihan and Maug.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
205 miles to the southwest and up to 125 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Saturday morning followed by
an intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 996 HPA
AT 17.4N 143.1E MARIANAS ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 19.4N 144.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 17.4N 143.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 19.4N 144.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 270600UTC 23.1N 145.8E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 280600UTC 27.0N 145.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 290600UTC 29.1N 146.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 300600UTC 30.6N 150.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 250903
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
703 PM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

...TS KROSA WEST OF ALAMAGAN CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within the next 24
hours, which will most likely occur overnight tonight.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.5N 143.4E

About 160 miles west of Alamagan
About 160 miles west-southwest of Pagan
About 170 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 170 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 225 miles northwest of Saipan
About 290 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was
located near Latitude 17.5 degrees North and Longitude 143.4 degrees
East. Krosa is moving north-northwest at 5 mph. It is expected to
make a turn toward the north-northeast with a slight increase in
forward speed through Saturday. The center of TS Krosa is expected to
pass near or just west of Maug Saturday night. However, tropical
storm conditions are still expected for the far northern CNMI until
sometime Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through the weekend, possibly becoming a typhoon by Sunday
morning to the north of Maug and Agrihan.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
205 miles to the southwest and up to 125 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Saturday morning.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 250823
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
623 PM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

...TS KROSA WEST OF ALAMAGAN CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within the next 24
hours, which will most likely occur overnight tonight.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.5N 143.4E

About 160 miles west of Alamagan
About 160 miles west-southwest of Pagan
About 170 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 170 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 225 miles northwest of Saipan
About 290 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was
located near Latitude 17.5 degrees North and Longitude 143.4 degrees
East. Krosa is moving north-northwest at 5 mph. It is expected to
make a turn toward the north-northeast with a slight increase in
forward speed through Saturday. The center of TS Krosa is expected to
pass near or just west of Maug Saturday night. However, tropical
storm conditions are still expected for the far northern CNMI until
sometime Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through the weekend, possibly becoming a typhoon by Sunday
morning to the north of Maug and Agrihan.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
205 miles to the southwest and up to 125 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Saturday morning.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 250753 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Depression Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
553 PM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

Corrected typos in the Discussion and Outlook section

...TS KROSA WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN CONTINUING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within the next 24
hours, most likely overnight tonight.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.3N 143.3E

About 170 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 170 miles west of Alamagan
About 170 miles west-southwest of Pagan
About 185 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 220 miles northwest of Saipan
About 280 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north...10 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storms
Krosa was located near Latitude 17.3 degrees North and Longitude
143.3 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 7 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the north-northeast with
little change in forward speed through Saturday. The center of TS
Krosa is expected to pass near or just west of Maug Saturday night.
However, tropical storm conditions are still expected for the far
northern CNMI until sometime Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through the weekend, possibly becoming a typhoon by Sunday
morning to the north of Maug and Agrihan.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
205 miles to the southwest and up to 160 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 PM ChST, followed by an intermediate advisory at 1100
PM ChST.

$$

Montvila/Slagle


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 17.2N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 996 HPA
AT 17.2N 143.1E MARIANAS ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 19.1N 144.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 23.1N 145.8E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 27.0N 145.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 29.1N 146.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 30.6N 150.4E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 17.2N 143.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 19.1N 144.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 270600UTC 23.1N 145.8E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 280600UTC 27.0N 145.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 290600UTC 29.1N 146.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 300600UTC 30.6N 150.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 250649
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
449 PM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

...TS KROSA WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN CONTINUING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within the next 24
hours, most likely overnight tonight.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.3N 143.3E

About 170 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 170 miles west of Alamagan
About 170 miles west-southwest of Pagan
About 185 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 220 miles northwest of Saipan
About 280 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north...10 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Krosa was located near Latitude 17.3 degrees North and Longitude
143.3 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 7 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the north-northwest with
little change in forward speed through Saturday. The center of TS
Krosa is expected to pass near or just west of Maug Saturday night.
However, tropical storm conditions are still expected for the far
northern CNMI until sometime Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through the weekend, possibly becoming a typhoon by Sunday
morning to the north of Maug and Agrihan.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
205 miles to the southwest and up to 160 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 PM ChST, followed by an intermediate advisory at 1100
PM ChST.

$$

Montvila


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 17.3N 143.1E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 18.9N 144.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 270000UTC 21.8N 145.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 280000UTC 26.4N 146.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 290000UTC 29.2N 148.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 300000UTC 31.9N 152.5E 215NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 250316
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
116 PM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

...TS KROSA WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN CONTINUING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions, including
winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within the next 24 hours, most likely
overnight tonight.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.1N 143.5E

About 150 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 155 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 165 miles west-southwest of Pagan
About 180 miles southwest of Agrihan
About 200 miles northwest of Saipan
About 265 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...north...10 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was
located near Latitude 17.1 degrees North and Longitude 143.5 degrees
East. Krosa is moving north at 7 mph. It is expected to make a slight
turn toward the north-northeast with little change in forward speed
through Saturday. The center of TS Krosa is expected to pass near or
just west of Maug Saturday night. However, tropical storm conditions
are still expected for the far northern CNMI until sometime Sunday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through the weekend, possibly becoming a typhoon by Sunday
morning to the north of Maug and Agrihan.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
205 miles to the southwest and up to 160 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 143.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 17.1N 143.3E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 18.6N 144.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 270000UTC 21.8N 145.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 280000UTC 26.4N 146.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 290000UTC 29.2N 148.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 300000UTC 31.9N 152.5E 215NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 1000 HPA
AT 17.1N 143.3E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 18.6N 144.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 21.8N 145.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 26.4N 146.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 29.2N 148.5E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 31.9N 152.5E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 250057
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1057 AM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

...TROPICAL STORM KROSA MOVING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within the next 24 hours.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.9N 143.5E

About 150 miles west-northwest of Anatahan
About 160 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 170 miles west-southwest of Pagan
About 190 miles northwest of Saipan
About 190 miles southwest of Agrihan
About 195 miles northwest of Tinian
About 220 miles north-northwest of Rota
About 250 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...north...350 degrees at 6 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM ChST...0000 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa
was located near Latitude 16.9 degrees North and Longitude
143.5 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 6 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the north-northeast with
little change in forward speed through Saturday. The center of
TS Krosa is expected to pass to the west of the northern CNMI
islands on Saturday, However, tropical storm conditions are
still expected.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through the weekend, possibly becoming a typhoon by
Sunday morning to the north of Agrihan.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
195 miles to the southwest and up to 150 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 500 PM ChST.

$$

Slagle


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 16.6N 143.1E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 18.5N 144.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 261800UTC 21.3N 145.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 271800UTC 25.7N 146.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 281800UTC 28.5N 147.1E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 291800UTC 30.3N 149.9E 215NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 242100
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
700 AM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

...KROSA UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Krosa is now a tropical storm. The tropical storm force winds are all
on the south side. The watches for Rota, Tinian, Saipan and
surrounding waters are canceled as of 8 AM. A Tropical Storm Warning
is now in effect for Agrihan, Pagan, and Alamagan.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The Tropical Storm Watches for Rota, Tinian, Saipan, and their
coastal waters have been canceled as of 8 AM.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan as of 8 AM.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within the next
24 hours.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.5N 143.3E

About 155 miles west of Anatahan
About 185 miles northwest of Tinian
About 185 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 185 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 200 miles southwest of Pagan
About 205 miles northwest of Rota
About 220 miles southwest of Agrihan
About 230 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...north...350 degrees at 6 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was
located near Latitude 16.5 degrees North and Longitude 143.3 degrees
East. Krosa is moving north at 6 mph. It is expected to make a slight
turn toward the north-northeast with little change in forward speed
through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph. Krosa is
forecast to intensify through Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
195 miles to the south and none to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 16.2N, 143.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 16.2N 143.0E POOR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 18.4N 144.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 261800UTC 21.3N 145.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 271800UTC 25.7N 146.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 281800UTC 28.5N 147.1E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 291800UTC 30.3N 149.9E 215NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 1000 HPA
AT 16.2N 143.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 18.4N 144.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 21.3N 145.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 25.7N 146.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 28.5N 147.1E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 30.3N 149.9E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 15.6N 143.2E POOR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 18.1N 144.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 261200UTC 20.4N 145.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 271200UTC 24.7N 146.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 281200UTC 27.7N 145.4E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 291200UTC 29.2N 146.4E 215NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 241507
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
107 AM ChST Fri Jul 25 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KROSA IS WEST OF ANATAHAN MOVING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan and coastal waters, as well as for Agrihan, Pagan,
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 mph or more, are possible.
Tropical storm conditions are possible Friday for Rota, Tinian
and Saipan, depending on how quickly Krosa intensifies.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.5N 143.5E

About 145 miles west of Anatahan
About 170 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 175 miles northwest of Tinian
About 175 miles northwest of Saipan
About 185 miles southwest of Pagan
About 200 miles northwest of Rota
About 210 miles southwest of Agrihan
About 225 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north...360 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Krosa was located near Latitude 16.5 degrees North and Longitude
143.5 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 12 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the north-northeast with a
decrease in forward speed through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Saturday possibly becoming a tropical storm.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 15.6N, 143.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 241333 CCB
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Depression Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 3A...Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1133 PM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KROSA WEST OF ANATAHAN MOVING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Corrected time in the Discussion and Outlook section.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan and coastal waters, as well as for Agrihan, Pagan,
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 mph or more, are possible.
Tropical storm conditions are possible Friday for Rota, Tinian
and Saipan, depending on how quickly Krosa intensifies.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...16.2N 143.5E

About 145 miles west of Anatahan
About 165 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 165 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 180 miles northwest of Rota
About 180 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 200 miles southwest of Pagan
About 205 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 225 miles southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north...350 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Krosa was located near Latitude 16.2 degrees North and Longitude
143.5 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 15 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with a decrease in forward speed
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Saturday, possibly becoming a tropical storm
Friday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 AM ChST early Friday morning followed by an
intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 15.6N 143.0E POOR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 17.8N 144.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 261200UTC 20.4N 145.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 271200UTC 24.7N 146.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 281200UTC 27.7N 145.4E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 291200UTC 29.2N 146.4E 215NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) 1002 HPA
AT 15.6N 143.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 17.8N 144.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 20.4N 145.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 24.7N 146.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 27.7N 145.4E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 29.2N 146.4E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 241306
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...RESENT
Tropical Depression Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 3A...Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1051 PM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KROSA WEST OF ANATAHAN MOVING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Corrected time in the Discussion and Outlook section.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan and coastal waters, as well as for Agrihan, Pagan,
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 mph or more, are possible.
Tropical storm conditions are possible Friday for Rota, Tinian
and Saipan, depending on how quickly Krosa intensifies.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...16.2N 143.5E

About 145 miles west of Anatahan
About 165 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 165 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 180 miles northwest of Rota
About 180 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 200 miles southwest of Pagan
About 205 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 225 miles southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north...350 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Krosa was located near Latitude 16.2 degrees North and Longitude
143.5 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 15 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with a decrease in forward speed
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Saturday, possibly becoming a tropical storm
Friday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 AM ChST early Friday morning followed by an
intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 241306 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 3A...Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1051 PM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KROSA WEST OF ANATAHAN MOVING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Corrected time in the Discussion and Outlook section.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan and coastal waters, as well as for Agrihan, Pagan,
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 mph or more, are possible.
Tropical storm conditions are possible Friday for Rota, Tinian
and Saipan, depending on how quickly Krosa intensifies.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...16.2N 143.5E

About 145 miles west of Anatahan
About 165 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 165 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 180 miles northwest of Rota
About 180 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 200 miles southwest of Pagan
About 205 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 225 miles southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north...350 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Krosa was located near Latitude 16.2 degrees North and Longitude
143.5 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 15 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with a decrease in forward speed
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Saturday, possibly becoming a tropical storm
Friday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 AM ChST early Friday morning followed by an
intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 241251
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Krosa (12W) Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1051 PM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KROSA WEST OF ANATAHAN MOVING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan and coastal waters, as well as for Agrihan, Pagan,
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 mph or more, are possible.
Tropical storm conditions are possible Friday for Rota, Tinian
and Saipan, depending on how quickly Krosa intensifies.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...16.2N 143.5E

About 145 miles west of Anatahan
About 165 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 165 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 180 miles northwest of Rota
About 180 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 200 miles southwest of Pagan
About 205 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 225 miles southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north...350 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Krosa was located near Latitude 16.2 degrees North and Longitude
143.5 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 15 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with a decrease in forward speed
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Saturday, possibly becoming a tropical storm
Friday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 AM ChST early Friday morning followed by an
intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 15.0N 143.2E POOR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 17.6N 143.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260600UTC 19.4N 144.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 270600UTC 23.3N 145.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 280600UTC 27.2N 144.7E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 290600UTC 28.1N 144.6E 215NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 240907
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Krosa (12W) Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
707 PM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KROSA WEST OF SAIPAN MOVING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan and coastal waters, as well as for Agrihan, Pagan,
Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm
conditions, including winds of 39 mph or more, are possible.

Tropical storm conditions are possible Friday for Rota,
Tinian and Saipan, depending on how quickly Krosa intensifies.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...15.5N 143.5E

About 145 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 150 miles northwest of Rota
About 150 miles west of Saipan
About 155 miles west-southwest of Anatahan
About 165 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 210 miles southwest of Alamagan
About 235 miles southwest of Pagan
About 265 miles south-southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north...350 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM ChST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Krosa was located near Latitude 15.5 degrees North and Longitude
143.5 degrees East. Krosa is moving north at 15 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course with a decrease in
forward speed through Friday, with a slight turn to the north-
northeast by Saturday. This track keeps the center of Krosa to the
west of the far nothern CNMI islands.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Krosa is forecast to
intensify through Friday possibly becoming a tropical storm to the
west of Anatahan.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Friday morning.

$$

Slagle


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TS (KROSA) STATUS THREE HOURS AGO. TS
KROSA IS LOCATED AT 14.5N, 143.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. METOP-C/MHS 85
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2509 KROSA (2509) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 14.5N 143.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 17.5N 143.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 19.4N 144.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 23.3N 145.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 27.2N 144.7E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 28.1N 144.6E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 14.5N 143.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 17.5N 143.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260600UTC 19.4N 144.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 270600UTC 23.3N 145.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 280600UTC 27.2N 144.7E 175NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 290600UTC 28.1N 144.6E 215NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 240649
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP122025
449 PM CHST THU JUL 24 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WEST OF ROTA MOVING OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA, TINIAN, AND
SAIPAN AND COASTAL WATERS, AS WELL AS FOR AGRIHAN, PAGAN, ALAMAGAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE, ARE POSSIBLE.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 143.5E

ABOUT 105 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANATAHAN
ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
143.5 DEGREES EAST. 12W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 MPH. 12W IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT, POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING
INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM CHST.

$$

SLAGLE=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2509 KROSA (2509) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 14.4N 143.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 241500UTC 16.0N 144.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 250300UTC 17.0N 144.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260000UTC 18.8N 144.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 270000UTC 21.6N 144.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 280000UTC 26.0N 145.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 290000UTC 27.5N 145.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 240319
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 12W Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
119 PM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025

...TD 12W WEST OF ROTA MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan and coastal waters, as well as for Agrihan, Pagan,
Alamagan.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 mph or more are possible as early as Friday
morning, especially if 12W intensifies quicker than currently
expected.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.1N 143.6E

About 90 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 110 miles west of Rota
About 150 miles west-southwest of Tinian
About 160 miles west-southwest of Saipan
About 285 miles south-southwest of Alamagan
About 315 miles south-southwest of Pagan
About 350 miles south-southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...northwest...320 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 12W
was located near Latitude 14.1 degrees North and Longitude 143.6
degrees East. Tropical Depression 12W is moving northwest at 9 mph.
It is expected to make a turn toward the north with a slight decrease
in forward speed through Friday, as it intensifies into a tropical
storm. Tropical Depression 12W is currently west of Rota and will
continue to gradually move away from the lower Marianas along a
general northerly course. However, it remains possible for tropical
storm force winds to develop, mainly across the far western waters of
Rota, Tinian, Saipan, and locations further north.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 35 mph. Tropical
Depression 12W is forecast to maintain this intensity through
tonight, before strengthening further to a tropical storm Friday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST, followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM ChST.

$$

Doll/Aydlett


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 240146 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Depression 12W Intermediate Advisory Number 0A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1146 AM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025

Corrected to update the position time.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST NORTHWEST
AWAY FROM GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan and surrounding waters, as well as for Agrihan, Pagan,
and Alamagan and surrounding waters.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...13.7N 144.0E

About 50 miles west of Guam
About 90 miles southwest of Rota
About 140 miles southwest of Tinian
About 150 miles southwest of Saipan
About 220 miles southwest of Anatahan
About 300 miles south-southwest of Alamagan
About 330 miles south-southwest of Pagan
About 370 miles south-southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 2 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 12W
was located near Latitude 13.7 degrees North and Longitude 144.0
degrees East, roughly 50 miles west of Guam. 12W is moving west-
northwest at 2 mph, away from Guam, but will turn north-northwest
today. Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect based on the potential for 12W to intensify into
a tropical storm by tonight or Friday as it heads northward just to
the west of the CNMI.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 500 PM ChST.

$$

Slagle


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 240116
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 12W Intermediate Advisory Number 0A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
1116 AM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST NORTHWEST
AWAY FROM GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan and surrounding waters, as well as for Agrihan, Pagan,
and Alamagan and surrounding waters.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...13.7N 144.0E

About 50 miles west of Guam
About 90 miles southwest of Rota
About 140 miles southwest of Tinian
About 150 miles southwest of Saipan
About 220 miles southwest of Anatahan
About 300 miles south-southwest of Alamagan
About 330 miles south-southwest of Pagan
About 370 miles south-southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 2 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 12W
was located near Latitude 13.7 degrees North and Longitude 144.0
degrees East, roughly 50 miles west of Guam. 12W is moving west-
northwest at 2 mph, away from Guam, but will turn north-northwest
today. Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect based on the potential for 12W to intensify into
a tropical storm by tonight or Friday as it heads northward just to
the west of the CNMI.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 500 PM ChST.

$$

Slagle


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 232344 AAA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...UPDATED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP122025
944 AM CHST THU JUL 24 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W FORMS WEST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W HAS FORMED WEST OF GUAM.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROTA, TINIAN, AND
SAIPAN, AS WELL AS FOR AGRIHAN, PAGAN, AND ALAMAGAN.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 144.0E

ABOUT 55 MILES WEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 95 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANATAHAN
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 2 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.0 DEGREES EAST. 12W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH, AWAY FROM
GUAM, BUT WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
IN EFFECT BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR 12W TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL
STORM TONIGHT AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF THE CNMI.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND IT MAY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY
FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
--------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 11 AM CHST, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 2 PM.

$$

DOLL/STANKO/SLAGLE=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 232117
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 12W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP122025
717 AM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W FORMS WEST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Tropical Depression 12W has formed west of Guam.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the CNMI and
surrounding waters.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...13.5N 144.0E

About 55 miles west of Guam
About 95 miles west-southwest of Rota
About 150 miles southwest of Tinian
About 160 miles southwest of Saipan
About 225 miles south-southwest of Anatahan
About 310 miles south-southwest of Alamagan
About 340 miles south-southwest of Pagan
About 380 miles south-southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 2 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 12W
was located near Latitude 13.5 degrees North and Longitude
144.0 degrees East. 12W is moving west-northwest at 2 mph. It is
expected to make a turn toward the north-northwest with an
increase in forward speed through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. 12W is forecast to intensify
through the weekend, and it may strengthen to a tropical storm by
Friday night.

NEXT ADVISORY
--------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service by 11 AM ChST, followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 2 PM.

$$

Doll/Stanko