Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ONE-C-25
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ33 PGUM 021034
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Iona (01C) Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service Tiyan GU CP012025
834 PM ChST Sat Aug 2 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IONA HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST PACIFIC WELL EAST
OF WAKE ISLAND AND WEAKENING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TD Iona has crossed the Date Line and entered the western Pacific.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.3N 178.9E

About 815 miles east of Wake Island
About 870 miles northeast of Majuro
About 2280 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...northwest...315 degrees at 23 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Iona was located near Latitude 17.3 degrees North and Longitude
178.9 degrees East. Iona is moving northwest at 23 mph. It is
expected to make a turn toward the north with a dramatic decrease
in forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. Iona is forecast to weaken
through Sunday, potentially dissipating as it encounters the
sub-tropical ridge for the rest of its life cycle.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last issuance of a public advisory for this system
by the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, unless re-development
occurs in the next 12 hours.

$$

Montvila


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 020249
TCDCP1

Tropical Depression Iona Discussion Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with Iona
remains fragmented and disorganized, with the low-level circulation
becoming increasingly broad and diffuse under persistent
west-northwest shear. The center is exposed and becoming less
defined, and a recent ASCAT pass detected peak winds of only around
25 kt in the northeastern quadrant. Subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates from SAB, HFO, and JTWC ranged from 1.5/25 kt to
2.5/35 kt. Based on these data and the degraded satellite
appearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt.

The initial motion is estimated at 295/15 kt. Iona is expected to
continue west-northwestward through the weekend while gradually
slowing, steered by the southern flank of a low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge to the north. A northwestward turn remains likely
by late this weekend or early next week as the system approaches a
weakness in the ridge. The latest track forecast remains similar to
the previous advisory and is close to the consensus aids, with only
minor adjustments.

Given the increasingly degraded structure of Iona and the lack of
deep convection, little to no reorganization is anticipated.
Persistent westerly shear, interaction with an upper-level trough,
and the intrusion of mid- to upper-level dry air should continue to
inhibit strengthening. While most dynamical model guidance depicts
Iona gradually opening into a trough by early next week, the current
disorganized state suggests that degeneration into a remnant low or
trough could occur at any time over the weekend. The updated
forecast maintains Iona as a tropical cyclone briefly, but the
system is expected to dissipate by 72 hours or sooner.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC
Tokyo, Japan. Advisories issued by RSMC Tokyo are found on the web
at:

www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm

For U.S. interests, see advisories issued by the Joint Typhoon
Warning Center (JTWC) in Honolulu, Hawaii. Advisories issued by JTWC
can be found on the web at:

www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.8N 179.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.8N 178.3E 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 18.0N 175.8E 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.1N 173.6E 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 20.6N 171.6E 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 22.1N 169.7E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 020247
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST FRI AUG 01 2025

...IONA EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE IN THE NEXT
6 HOURS OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 179.5W
ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 179.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28
KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
TOKYO, JAPAN. ADVISORIES ISSUED BY RSMC TOKYO ARE FOUND ON THE WEB
AT:

WWW.JMA.GO.JP/JMA/JMA-ENG/JMA-CENTER/RSMC-HP-PUB-EG/RSMC_HP.HTM

FOR U.S.INTERESTS, SEE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (JTWC) IN HONOLULU, HAWAII. ADVISORIES ISSUED BY JTWC
CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT:

WWW.METOC.NAVY.MIL/JTWC/JTWC.HTML

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 020246
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 179.5W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS....180NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 179.5W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 178.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 178.3E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 175.8E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.1N 173.6E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N 171.6E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.1N 169.7E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 179.5W

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
TOKYO, JAPAN.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 012038
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 177.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 177.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 176.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 179.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 177.8E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 175.5E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.4N 173.4E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 171.3E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.7N 169.5E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 177.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 012036
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025

Convection associated with Iona remains disorganized, with clusters
of convection now occurring only in the southern semicircle. While
satellite imagery shows that the circulation is becoming elongated,
it is still uncertain whether it is actually closed. An upcoming
scatterometer overpass should help provide more information on
whether the circulation still exists and on the maximum winds. For
the time being, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt as a blend
of the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates.

The initial motion is now at 285/16 kt. Iona is expected to move
west-northwestward during the next couple of days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed along the southern periphery of the
subtropical ridge to the north. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast after 36-48 h as the system approaches a developing break
in the ridge west of 165E. The track guidance has shifted a little
to the west on this cycle, and the new forecast track is slightly
to the west of the previous track.

The intensity forecast scenario is unchanged from earlier. Iona
continues to be affected by westerly shear, which should persist
for the next 12-18 h. After that, the system is forecast to
interact with an upper-level trough, and it will likely enter an
area of upper-level convergence by 60-72 h. Based on this scenario
and the dynamical guidance, the intensity forecast calls for Iona
remain a tropical storm for 12 h or so, followed by weakening to a
depression by 24 h and degenerating into a remnant low by 72 h.
Given the current state of organization and the generally
unfavorable environment, there remains the possibility the system
could weaken to a trough at any time during the next 60-72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 15.0N 177.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.8N 179.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.0N 177.8E 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.2N 175.5E 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.4N 173.4E 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 21.1N 171.3E 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 22.7N 169.5E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 012034
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 01 2025

...IONA EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 177.6W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2195 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 177.6 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
IONA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.08.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92C ANALYSED POSITION : 9.0N 152.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP922025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.08.2025 9.0N 152.5W WEAK
00UTC 02.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GIL ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 121.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.08.2025 14.8N 121.2W MODERATE
00UTC 02.08.2025 16.0N 124.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2025 17.4N 128.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2025 19.1N 131.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2025 20.5N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2025 21.7N 138.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.08.2025 22.6N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2025 22.8N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2025 23.6N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2025 24.4N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM IONA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 175.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.08.2025 14.5N 175.4W WEAK
00UTC 02.08.2025 16.1N 179.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2025 17.2N 177.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2025 18.2N 174.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2025 18.9N 172.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2025 20.0N 169.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2025 21.4N 167.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2025 23.2N 165.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 32.8N 76.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.08.2025 32.6N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2025 32.7N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2025 33.6N 71.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2025 34.7N 70.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2025 35.3N 69.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2025 36.0N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2025 36.3N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N 40.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.08.2025 10.3N 40.8W WEAK
00UTC 07.08.2025 11.4N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2025 13.0N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2025 14.8N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2025 16.1N 50.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 34.8N 0.1E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.08.2025 34.8N 0.1E WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011559


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.08.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92C ANALYSED POSITION : 9.0N 152.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP922025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.08.2025 0 9.0N 152.5W 1011 24
0000UTC 02.08.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GIL ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 121.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.08.2025 0 14.8N 121.2W 995 42
0000UTC 02.08.2025 12 16.0N 124.4W 995 50
1200UTC 02.08.2025 24 17.4N 128.0W 995 50
0000UTC 03.08.2025 36 19.1N 131.8W 997 46
1200UTC 03.08.2025 48 20.5N 135.2W 1001 40
0000UTC 04.08.2025 60 21.7N 138.3W 1005 34
1200UTC 04.08.2025 72 22.6N 141.1W 1008 28
0000UTC 05.08.2025 84 22.8N 143.4W 1009 25
1200UTC 05.08.2025 96 23.6N 145.3W 1011 27
0000UTC 06.08.2025 108 24.4N 147.4W 1013 25
1200UTC 06.08.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM IONA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 175.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.08.2025 0 14.5N 175.4W 1007 32
0000UTC 02.08.2025 12 16.1N 179.1W 1009 30
1200UTC 02.08.2025 24 17.2N 177.5E 1010 25
0000UTC 03.08.2025 36 18.2N 174.8E 1010 28
1200UTC 03.08.2025 48 18.9N 172.2E 1011 26
0000UTC 04.08.2025 60 20.0N 169.8E 1011 29
1200UTC 04.08.2025 72 21.4N 167.2E 1012 28
0000UTC 05.08.2025 84 23.2N 165.2E 1012 29
1200UTC 05.08.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 32.8N 76.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.08.2025 36 32.6N 74.6W 1012 28
1200UTC 03.08.2025 48 32.7N 73.6W 1010 29
0000UTC 04.08.2025 60 33.6N 71.7W 1009 26
1200UTC 04.08.2025 72 34.7N 70.6W 1010 27
0000UTC 05.08.2025 84 35.3N 69.7W 1012 26
1200UTC 05.08.2025 96 36.0N 68.6W 1015 26
0000UTC 06.08.2025 108 36.3N 68.0W 1016 28
1200UTC 06.08.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N 40.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2025 120 10.3N 40.8W 1013 25
0000UTC 07.08.2025 132 11.4N 42.4W 1012 25
1200UTC 07.08.2025 144 13.0N 44.1W 1012 26
0000UTC 08.08.2025 156 14.8N 46.7W 1012 28
1200UTC 08.08.2025 168 16.1N 50.7W 1011 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 34.8N 0.1E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.08.2025 168 34.8N 0.1E 1012 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011559


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 011438
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025

Satellite imagery shows that the convection associated with Iona
remains fragmented and disorganized. Scatterometer data received
since the last advisory indicates the maximum winds are near 35 kt
and that the circulation has weakened to the point that it is
uncertain whether it is still closed. The system will be maintained
as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated at 285/18 kt. As mentioned
previously, Iona is expected to continue moving west-northwestward
over the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in forward
speed as it moves along the southern periphery of the subtropical
ridge to the north. A turn toward the northwest is forecast after
36-48 h as the system approaches a developing break in the ridge.
The new forecast track lies near the consensus models and the center
of the guidance envelope, and it is an update of the previous
forecast.

Iona continues to be affected by westerly shear, which should
persist for the next 12-18 h. After that, the system is forecast to
interact with an upper-level trough, and it will likely enter an
area of upper-level convergence by 60-72 h. Based on this scenario
and the dynamical guidance, the new intensity forecast calls for
Iona remain a tropical storm for 36 h or so, followed by weakening
to a depression by 48 h and degenerating into a trough by 96 h.
Given the current state of organization and the generally
unfavorable environment, the system could weaken to a trough at any
time during the next 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.6N 176.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.4N 178.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 178.8E 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.8N 176.5E 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 19.0N 174.3E 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 20.6N 172.1E 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 22.5N 170.2E 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 011437
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 176.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 176.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 175.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.4N 178.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N 178.8E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 176.5E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 174.3E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N 172.1E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 170.2E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 176.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 011437
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST FRI AUG 01 2025

...IONA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 176.3W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 176.3 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH (33 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 010836
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with Iona
remains fragmented and poorly organized, with the low-level
circulation center nearly exposed or located near the western edge
of the deep convection due to persistent west-northwest shear. A
recent AMSR2 microwave pass revealed an elongated low-level
structure oriented from north to south, with no well-defined core.
Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from HFO, SAB, and
JTWC ranged from 2.5/35 kt to 3.0/45 kt. Based on these estimates
and the poor satellite presentation, the initial intensity is
lowered to 40 kt.

The initial motion is estimated at 285/16 kt. Iona is expected to
continue moving west-northwestward over the next couple of days
while gradually slowing, steered along the southern periphery of a
subtropical ridge to the north. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by late this weekend or early next week as the system
approaches a weakness in the ridge. The updated track forecast
remains close to the previous one, with a slight rightward
adjustment that aligns with the consensus guidance.

Little change in intensity is expected over the next day or two, but
a steady weakening trend should begin by Sunday as the system
interacts with an upper-level trough and entrains mid- to
upper-level dry air. Most dynamical guidance suggests that Iona will
gradually open into a trough by early next week. As such, the
official forecast now shows the system dissipating by 96 hours, or
Tuesday. This forecast assumes Iona will maintain sufficient
convection to remain a tropical cyclone through the weekend. If
convection fails to persist, however, dissipation could occur sooner
than currently indicated.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.2N 174.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 14.8N 176.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.8N 179.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 17.0N 177.9E 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.1N 175.7E 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 19.5N 173.6E 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 21.3N 171.4E 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 010833
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST THU JUL 31 2025

...IONA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 174.4W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 174.4 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 010833
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 174.4W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....220NE 110SE 70SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 174.4W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 173.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 176.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 179.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 177.9E
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.1N 175.7E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 173.6E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.3N 171.4E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 174.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 010234
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with Iona
remains disorganized, with warming cloud tops now near -70 C, but
still positioned over the low-level circulation center despite
ongoing moderate west-northwest shear. However, an earlier ASCAT
pass supported peak winds near 40 kt in the northern semicircle, and
a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates
continues to support holding the initial intensity at 45 kt.

The initial motion is estimated at 285/20 kt. Iona is expected to
continue moving west-northwestward during the next couple of days,
with a gradual decrease in forward speed as it remains steered along
the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to
the north. A turn toward the northwest is forecast late this weekend
through early next week as the system approaches a weakness in the
ridge. The updated track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the
right of the previous forecast and represents a blend of the prior
track and the latest consensus guidance.

Very little change was made to the intensity forecast, as most
guidance generally holds Iona’s strength steady through the weekend
while it begins to turn northwestward and interacts with an
upper-level trough. Vertical shear may relax somewhat after 24
hours, which could allow the system to briefly maintain or even
slightly increase in strength. However, there is considerable
uncertainty regarding how the interaction with the trough will
evolve, as small differences in positioning could either support
modest strengthening or accelerate weakening. Due to this
uncertainty, the intensity forecast maintains Iona as a tropical
storm through the weekend, followed by gradual weakening and
possible degeneration into a remnant low by the middle of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 13.7N 172.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.3N 175.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.1N 177.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.1N 179.4E 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.2N 177.2E 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 18.4N 175.1E 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 19.6N 172.9E 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 22.8N 168.7E 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 27.6N 165.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 010233
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST THU JUL 31 2025

...IONA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN
INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 172.7W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 172.7 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 010233
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 172.7W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....220NE 110SE 70SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 172.7W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 171.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.3N 175.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.1N 177.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N 179.4E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.2N 177.2E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 175.1E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 172.9E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 22.8N 168.7E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 27.6N 165.5E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 172.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 312032
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025

Iona is still generating a large area of strong but disorganized
convection over the low-level center. An earlier partial SSMI/S
overpass suggest the convection had poorly-defined banding, and
that the low-level center may have become elongated. Satellite
intensity estimated have increased a little over the past several
hours and now are in the 40-60 kt range. The intensity will be held
at 45 kt for now.

The initial motion is now 285/19 kt. Iona is expected to continue
west-northwestward with a decrease in forward speed for the next
two to three days as it moves along along the southern periphery of
a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge located to the north. After
60-72 h, the models have come into better agreement than Iona should
turn northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge west of
160E, with the formerly more westward GFS joining the more
northward ECMWF/Canadian. The model guidance envelope has shifted
to the right since the last advisory, and while the new forecast
track is also shifted to the right it still lies to the left of the
center of the envelope and the consensus models.

Iona continues to be affected by 20-25 kt of northwesterly shear.
This should continue for the next 24 h or so, and during this time
the storm is expected to weaken some. Subsequently, the shear is
forecast to decrease, but the global models forecast the cyclone to
move close to an upper-level low or trough. It is not clear at this
time whether this will be favorable or unfavorable for Iona to
re-intensify, as small changes in the relative positions of the
systems could make a large difference in how much intensification
might occur. After 96 h, the global models agree that Iona should
weaken, possibly due to upper-level convergence and dry air
entrainment. In contrast, the HAFS regional hurricane models
forecast re-intensification at that time. Overall, the intensity
guidance has trended higher since the last advisory. Due to the
uncertainties, the new intensity forecast will not yet make
significant changes and is an update of the previous forecast.
However, it lies near the lower end of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 13.2N 170.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.8N 173.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.6N 176.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.4N 179.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 16.4N 178.0E 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 17.4N 175.8E 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 18.4N 173.4E 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 20.8N 169.1E 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 23.4N 165.3E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 312031
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 170.7W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....220NE 110SE 70SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 170.7W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 169.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.8N 173.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.6N 176.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.4N 179.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.4N 178.0E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.4N 175.8E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.4N 173.4E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.8N 169.1E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 165.3E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 170.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 312031
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST THU JUL 31 2025

...IONA NOW MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 170.7W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.7 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 311439
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025

Iona continues to generate a strong burst of convection over the
low-level center, although there are no recent microwave overpasses
to shows if there has been an increase in the system's organization.
The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
range from 30-50 kt, and based on a blend of these and the current
convection, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. This intensity
is supported by a recent ASCAT overpass with 35-40 kt winds, and
the scatterometer data has also been used to revise the wind radii.

The initial motion is 280/19 kt. Iona is expected to continue
moving westward over the next day or so along the southern
periphery of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge located to the
north. By 48 to 60 hours, a gradual turn toward the west-northwest
and a decrease in forward speed are anticipated as the system
approaches a weakness in the ridge. How much of a turn may be
dependent on the strength of Iona. The GFS and UKMET have a weaker
cyclone and show a more westerly track, while the ECMWF and Canadian
models have a stronger system and a more northward motion. The new
forecast track splits the difference between these extremes and lies
near the various consensus models.

Iona continues to be affected by 25 kt of northwesterly vertical
wind shear, and due to this it is uncertain how long the current
convective burst will persist. The intensity guidance shows some
weakening during the next 24-36 h while the shear persists, and the
official forecast follows that trend. After that, the shear is
forecast to decrease, and there may be a day or two where the
environment becomes favorable enough for Iona to at least maintain
its intensity. By the end of the forecast period, the global models
diverge on the forecast environment near the cyclone, with the GFS
forecast strong subsidence that would suppress the convection
while the ECMWF forecasts a less hostile environment. The new
forecast will lean toward the GFS and the previous forecast in
showing gradual weakening, with Iona forecast to decay to a remnant
low by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 12.7N 168.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 13.3N 171.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.0N 174.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 14.7N 178.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 15.5N 179.2E 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 16.4N 176.5E 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.2N 174.2E 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.0N 169.7E 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 21.4N 165.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 311439
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST THU JUL 31 2025

...IONA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 168.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.7 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH (33 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 311438
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 168.7W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....220NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 168.7W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 167.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.3N 171.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.0N 174.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.7N 178.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 179.2E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.4N 176.5E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.2N 174.2E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 169.7E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.4N 165.9E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 168.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 310843
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that convection has become more
concentrated over the center of Iona, with a recent convective burst
producing cloud tops as cold as -85 C. This burst has obscured the
previously exposed low-level circulation center, though the overall
structure generally remains disorganized. Subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates ranged from 2.5/35 kt (JTWC) to 3.0/45 kt (SAB),
with HFO at 3.5/55 kt. These values are mostly consistent with
objective satellite intensity estimates, which ranged from 30 to 40
kt. Based on a blend of these estimates and the current satellite
presentation, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The initial motion is estimated at 280/20 kt. Iona is expected to
continue moving westward over the next day or two along the southern
periphery of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge located to the
north. By 48 to 60 hours, a gradual turn toward the west-northwest
and a decrease in forward speed are anticipated as the system
approaches a weakness in the ridge. The forecast track remains
consistent with the previous advisory and is well supported by the
latest consensus guidance.

Only slight additional weakening is expected in the short term as
Iona remains embedded within a moderate westerly shear environment
of 20 to 25 kt. By around 60 hours (Saturday), vertical shear is
forecast to relax, which could allow the cyclone to hold steady or
even briefly restrengthen as it moves over slightly warmer waters.
However, conditions are expected to deteriorate again late this
weekend through early next week, with increasing shear and mid-level
dry air likely leading to weakening. The intensity forecast has been
held steady from the the previous advisory, supported by the recent
burst of convection and the latest guidance. This forecast assumes
that Iona will maintain enough convection to remain a tropical
cyclone, but if convection fails to persist, the system could
degenerate into a remnant low sooner than currently indicated.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 12.3N 166.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 12.7N 169.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 13.5N 173.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.1N 176.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.9N 179.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.8N 177.9E 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 16.6N 175.7E 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 18.4N 171.3E 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 20.5N 167.1E 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 310842
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST WED JUL 30 2025

...IONA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 166.9W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.9 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 310841
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC THU JUL 31 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 166.9W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....220NE 100SE 60SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 166.9W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 165.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.7N 169.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.5N 173.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.1N 176.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.9N 179.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 177.9E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.6N 175.7E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.4N 171.3E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 167.1E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 166.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 310234
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

Iona continues to weaken, with the low-level circulation center
remaining mostly exposed. Recent satellite imagery showed a
convective burst on the north side of the center, with cloud tops
reaching as cold as -75°C. However, this burst has not been
sustained, and convection remains generally disorganized. An earlier
ASCAT pass sampled peak winds of around 40 kt in the northern
semicircle of the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates remain in the 40–65 kt range. Taking into
account the degraded satellite presentation, ASCAT data, and the
blend of available intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set
at 45 kt.

The initial motion is 275/20 kt. There is little change in the
forecast philosophy from the past couple of forecasts, as a general
westward motion is expected to continue during the next day or so
while Iona moves along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge to the north. A turn toward the west-northwest and
a gradual decrease in forward speed are expected after 36 h as the
system is steered into a weakness in the ridge. There has been
little change in the forecast guidance since the last advisory, and
the new forecast track is similar to the previous track.

The weakening trend appears to have stabilized, with only slight
additional weakening expected tonight. By Thursday, Iona's intensity
is forecast to level off as it moves over warmer sea surface
temperatures and into a marginally more favorable atmospheric
environment. The system is expected to resume weakening by early
next week as it encounters mid-level dry air and increasing vertical
shear. The intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly downward to
reflect the recent trends. This forecast assumes that Iona will
maintain enough convection to remain a tropical cyclone. Should
convection fail to persist, the system could degenerate into a
remnant low or trough before day five.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 11.8N 164.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 12.2N 167.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 12.8N 171.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 13.4N 174.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 14.2N 177.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 15.0N 179.6E 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 16.0N 177.3E 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 18.2N 172.6E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 20.6N 168.1E 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 310233
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST WED JUL 30 2025

...IONA REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 164.8W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.8 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 310233
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC THU JUL 31 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 164.8W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....220NE 100SE 70SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 164.8W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 163.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.2N 167.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.8N 171.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.4N 174.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.2N 177.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 179.6E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.0N 177.3E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 172.6E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 168.1E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 164.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 302043
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

Iona continues to rapidly weaken, as the low-level center is now
seen in visible imagery exposed well to the west-northwest of the
remaining poorly-organized convection. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates again have decreased significantly
and currently are in the 40-65 kt range. Based on a blend of these
estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous
55 kt, and Iona is downgraded to a tropical storm.

The initial motion is 275/19 kt. There is little change in the
forecast philosophy from the past couple of forecasts, as a general
westward motion is expected to continue during the next day or two
while Iona moves along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge to the north. A turn toward the west-northwest
and a gradual decrease in forward speed are expected after 48 h as
the system is steered into a weakness in the ridge. There has been
little change in the forecast guidance since the last advisory, and
the new forecast track is similar to the previous track.

Rapid weakening should continue for the next 12 h or so due to
westerly vertical shear and a track over cooler sea surface
temperatures. After that, the intensity forecast shows a period of
little change in strength as sea surface temperatures begin to warm
along the forecast track and the atmospheric conditions become a
little more favorable. After 72 h, Iona should again weaken as it
encounters mid-level dry air and another bout of vertical shear.
The intensity forecast was again lowered below the previous
forecast based on the current intensity trends. Note that the
intensity forecast is based on the premise that Iona will re-develop
enough convection to sustain the system as a tropical cyclone. If
this does not happen, the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low
or trough before 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.7N 162.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 12.1N 165.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 12.7N 169.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 13.4N 172.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 14.1N 175.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 15.1N 178.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 16.0N 178.7E 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.1N 174.1E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 20.2N 169.1E 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 302042
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST WED JUL 30 2025

...IONA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 162.6W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 162.6 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITION WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 302042
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC WED JUL 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 162.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....160NE 70SE 70SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 162.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 161.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.1N 165.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.7N 169.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.4N 172.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.1N 175.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.1N 178.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 178.7E
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.1N 174.1E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 169.1E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 162.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 301433
TCDCP1

Hurricane Iona Discussion Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

Iona has continued to rapidly weaken since the last advisory. A GPM
microwave overpass showed an exposed low-level center located well
to the northwest of the mid-level center apparent in geostationary
imagery, with little or no organized convection near the low-level
center. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
decreased significantly and currently are in the 45-75 kt range.
Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is
reduced to a likely generous 65 kt.

The initial motion is now 280/17 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue during the next day or two as the cyclone
moves along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge to the north. A turn toward the west-northwest
and a gradual decrease in forward speed are expected late in the
week and over the weekend, as the system is steered into a weakness
in the ridge. The official forecast is nudged just a little north
of the previous track and lies near the center of the track
guidance envelope. Iona has stayed well south of the Hawaiian
Islands, and the cyclone is forecast to move farther away from the
islands during the next couple of days.

Rapid weakening is expected to continue for the next 12-24 h due to
increasing westerly vertical shear and a track over cooler sea
surface temperatures. After that, the intensity forecast shows a
period of little change in strength as sea surface temperatures
begin to warm along the forecast track and the atmospheric
conditions become a little more favorable. By the end of the
forecast period, Iona should again weaken as it encounters mid-level
dry air and another bout of vertical shear. The intensity forecast
was lowered below the previous forecast mainly in response to the
current intensity trends.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 11.5N 160.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 11.8N 162.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 12.2N 166.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 12.8N 169.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 13.5N 173.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 14.5N 176.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 15.4N 179.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 17.3N 176.0E 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 19.2N 171.1E 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 301432
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST WED JUL 30 2025

...IONA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 160.2W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IONA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.2 WEST. IONA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY,
AND IONA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS
MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 301431
TCMCP1

HURRICANE IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC WED JUL 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 160.2W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....170NE 70SE 70SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 160.2W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 159.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.8N 162.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.2N 166.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.8N 169.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 173.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N 176.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.4N 179.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.3N 176.0E
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 171.1E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 160.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 300842
TCDCP1

Hurricane Iona Discussion Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 29 2025

The satellite presentation has continued to deteriorate this
evening, with the low-level center of Iona obscured by a central
dense overcast with gradually warming cloud top temperatures. The
cyclone is continuing to be influenced by increasing westerly
vertical wind shear while also moving over cooler sea surface
temperatures around or slightly below 27C, as depicted by the
Real-time, Global, Sea Surface Temperature Analysis. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates ranged from
4.5/77 knots to 5.5/102 knots, while the latest objective intensity
estimates range from 77 to 87 knots. Taking a blend of these data
the initial intensity has been lowered to 90 knots for this
advisory.

Iona is moving westward, or 275 degrees, at 15 knots. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as the
cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge to
the north. A turn toward the west-northwest and a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected late in the week and over the weekend,
as the system is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to
the north. The official track forecast remains near the center of
the tightly clustered guidance envelope and is very close to the
previous advisory. Confidence remains high that Iona will stay well
south of the Hawaiian Islands.

The cyclone is expected to undergo rapid weakening tonight and
Wednesday as it experiences increasing westerly vertical wind shear
while also moving over cooler sea surface temperatures of 26.5 to
27C. The intensity forecast then shows little change in strength
Thursday through Friday as sea surface temperatures begin to warm,
vertical wind shear gradually eases, and mid-level moisture
increases. Iona should then begin to gradually weaken by days 4
and 5 as the mid-levels dry out and the system becomes influenced by
increasing westerly and southwesterly vertical wind shear. The
official forecast was adjusted to account for the latest intensity
guidance trends, and lies pretty close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 11.3N 158.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 11.5N 161.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 11.8N 164.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 12.2N 168.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 12.9N 171.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 13.7N 175.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 14.5N 177.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 16.5N 177.3E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 18.8N 172.6E 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 300841
TCMCP1

HURRICANE IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC WED JUL 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 158.6W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 80SE 80SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 158.6W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 157.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.5N 161.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 11.8N 164.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.2N 168.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.9N 171.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.7N 175.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.5N 177.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 177.3E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.8N 172.6E
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 158.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 300841
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2025

...IONA RAPIDLY WEAKENING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 158.6W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IONA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 158.6 WEST. IONA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB (28.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 300250
TCDCP1

Hurricane Iona Discussion Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Jul 29 2025

Iona likely reached peak intensity earlier today, with satellite
images now showing the eye obscured by a central dense overcast.
The cyclone has begun to weaken as it feels the influence of
increasing westerly vertical wind shear while also moving over
cooler sea surface temperatures below 27C, as depicted by the
Real-time, Global, Sea Surface Temperature Analysis. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC
were 5.5/102 knots, while SAB was a somewhat lower 4.5/77 knots.
Meanwhile, the latest objective intensity estimates range from 85 to
96 knots. Given that the system has just recently begun to weaken,
the initial intensity will be lowered to 100 knots for this
advisory.

Iona is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 15 knots. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as the
cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge to
the north. A turn toward the west-northwest and a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected late in the week and over the weekend,
as the system is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to
the north. The official track forecast remains near the center of
the tightly clustered guidance envelope and is nearly identical to
the previous advisory. Confidence remains high that Iona will stay
well south of the Hawaiian Islands.

The cyclone is expected to undergo rapid weakening tonight and
Wednesday as it experiences increasing westerly vertical wind shear
while also moving over cooler sea surface temperatures of 26.5 to
27C. A slower rate of weakening is then forecast Wednesday night
and Thursday. By Friday, the shear begins to relax, sea surface
temperatures begin to increase to 28C or above, and the mid-levels
begin to moisten. The spread among the intensity guidance is
considerable, and the cyclone’s intensity will likely depend on how
intact the system remains after moving through the hostile
environment over the next couple of days. The official forecast
shows the intensity leveling off after 48 hours, but confidence in
this is low. Overall, the intensity forecast lies pretty close to
the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 11.0N 157.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 11.1N 159.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 11.3N 162.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 11.6N 166.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 12.1N 169.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 12.8N 172.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 13.7N 175.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 15.9N 179.2E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 17.9N 174.1E 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 300245
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2025

...IONA BEGINS TO WEAKEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 157.1W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IONA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 157.1 WEST. IONA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IONA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB (28.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 300244
TCMCP1

HURRICANE IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC WED JUL 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 157.1W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 80SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 157.1W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 156.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.1N 159.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.3N 162.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.6N 166.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 169.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 172.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 175.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 15.9N 179.2E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.9N 174.1E
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 157.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 292036
TCDCP1

Hurricane Iona Discussion Number 11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 29 2025


After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, Iona's strength
appears to have leveled off. The eye of the hurricane is not quite
as distinct as it was a few hours ago and the convective pattern is
slightly less symmetric. The initial intensity is held at 110 kt,
but this is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity
estimates. Although Iona is quite powerful, its wind field remains
compact. The hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind radii are
estimated to only extend up to 25 n mi and 80 n mi from the center,
respectively.

The major hurricane is likely near its peak intensity. Water vapor
images show a large area of dry and likely stable air just west of
the system, and this stable air combined with increasing shear
should cause Iona to steadily weaken during the next several days.
The new forecast is a touch lower than the previous one and lies
generally near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Iona has been moving due westward at about 12 kt on the south side
of a narrow mid-level ridge situated across the Hawaiian Islands.
The hurricane should continue westward on the south side of the
ridge during the next few days, and then turn west-northwestward to
northwestward after that when it moves toward the southwestern
periphery of the high pressure system. The models are again a
little slower this cycle, and the new track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction. Iona is expected to cross the
International Date Line in about 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 10.9N 155.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 11.0N 157.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.2N 160.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 11.5N 164.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 11.9N 167.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 12.6N 171.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 13.5N 174.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 15.3N 179.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 17.2N 175.6E 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 292036
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2025

...IONA REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE SOUTH OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 155.7W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IONA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.7 WEST. IONA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IONA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY, BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB (28.26 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 292034
TCMCP1

HURRICANE IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC TUE JUL 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 155.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 70SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 155.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 155.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.0N 157.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.2N 160.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 11.5N 164.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 11.9N 167.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.6N 171.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 291435
TCDCP1

Hurricane Iona Discussion Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Jul 29 2025

Iona is still rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate that
the eye of the hurricane is becoming more distinct, and it is
surrounded by a symmetric ring of cold cloud tops. A blend of the
latest intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and UW-CIMSS supports
increasing the initial intensity to 110 kt, just below category 4
status. Iona has strengthened at a very rapid pace of about 50 kt
over the past 24 hours. Although Iona is very powerful, the wind
field is quite small. The hurricane- and tropical-storm-force
winds are estimated to only extend up to 20 n mi and 70 n mi
from the center, respectively.

The major hurricane could get a little stronger today, and the
official forecast is at the top end of the intensity guidance in
the short term. However, as is the case in most major hurricanes,
internal dynamics like eyewall replacement cycles could occur that
cause fluctuations in the system's strength. Iona is expected to
move into less favorable conditions of drier air, stronger shear,
and slightly cooler SSTs by tonight, and that should end the
strengthening trend and induce weakening. This forecast is in best
agreement with the HCCA model.

Iona has been moving due westward at about 11 kt on the south side
of a narrow mid-level ridge situated across the Hawaiian Islands.
The hurricane should continue westward on the south side of the
ridge during the next few days, and then turn west-northwestward to
northwestward after that when it moves toward the southwestern
periphery of the high pressure system. The models are a little
slower this cycle, and the new track forecast has been adjusted in
that direction. Iona is expected to cross the International Date
Line in a little more than 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 10.8N 154.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 10.8N 156.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 10.9N 159.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 11.2N 162.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 11.6N 166.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 12.2N 169.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 13.0N 173.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 15.0N 179.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 16.8N 176.0E 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 291434
TCMCP1

HURRICANE IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 154.3W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 154.3W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 153.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 10.8N 156.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 10.9N 159.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.2N 162.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.6N 166.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.2N 169.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 291434
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2025

...IONA ALMOST A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 154.3W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IONA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 154.3 WEST. IONA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IONA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY, BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB (28.26 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 290836
TCDCP1

Hurricane Iona Discussion Number 9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Iona has a very impressive satellite presentation this evening, with
very cold cloud tops ranging from -70°C to -80°C surrounding the
well-defined eye. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates
came in at 5.0/90 knots from PHFO and 5.5/102 knots from SAB. The
ADT and AiDT objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged
between 97 and 104 knots over the past several hours. Based on a
blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has
been increased to 100 knots, making Iona a Category 3 major
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Iona is moving due west, or 270 degrees at 11 knots. This general
motion, along with a gradual increase in forward speed, is expected
to continue over the next several days as the cyclone moves along
the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the north. A turn
toward the west-northwest is anticipated by late in the week as the
system is influenced by a weakness in the mid-level ridge, created
by a developing upper-level low west of the International Date Line.
The official track forecast remains near the center of the guidance
envelope and is nearly identical to the previous advisory.
Confidence remains high that Iona will stay well south of the
Hawaiian Islands.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
intensification during the next 12 hours or so, as Iona will remain
over warm sea surface temperatures near 28C, with sufficient
mid-level moisture and minimal vertical wind shear. Given the
conducive environment, the intensity forecast calls for Iona to
reach category 4 status later tonight or early Tuesday. Steady
weakening is forecast to begin Tuesday night or Wednesday and
continue into the weekend, as the system moves over slightly cooler
waters, encounters increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and
begins to entrain drier mid-level air. The intensity forecast has
been adjusted slightly upward from the previous advisory, reflecting
the latest trends in the intensity guidance. This aligns well with
regional hurricane models during the next 24 to 36 hours, and then
lies near or slightly below the intensity guidance envelope
thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 10.8N 153.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 10.8N 155.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 10.8N 157.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 11.0N 161.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 11.3N 164.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 11.8N 168.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 12.6N 172.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 14.3N 178.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 16.5N 176.1E 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 290835
TCMCP1

HURRICANE IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE JUL 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 153.2W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 153.2W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 152.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 10.8N 155.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 10.8N 157.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.0N 161.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 11.3N 164.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 11.8N 168.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.6N 172.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 178.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 176.1E
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 153.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 290835
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST MON JUL 28 2025

...IONA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 153.2W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IONA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 153.2 WEST. IONA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IONA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT,
WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB (28.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 290255
TCDCP1

Hurricane Iona Discussion Number 8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

The satellite presentation of Iona has improved since earlier today,
with very cold cloud tops ranging from -70°C to -80°C surrounding a
developing eye that is becoming increasingly well-defined.
Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates came in at 4.0/65
knots from PHFO, 4.0/65 knots from SAB, and 4.5/77 knots from JTWC.
Objective estimates from ADT, AiDT, and SATCON have ranged between
65 and 82 knots over the past several hours. Based on a blend of
these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been
increased to 75 knots.

Hurricane Iona is moving due west, or 270 degrees at 11 knots. This
general motion, along with a gradual increase in forward speed, is
expected to continue over the next several days as the cyclone moves
along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the north. A
turn toward the west-northwest is anticipated by late in the week as
the system is influenced by a weakness in the mid-level ridge,
created by a developing upper-level low west of the International
Date Line. The official track forecast remains near the center of
the guidance envelope and is nearly identical to the previous
advisory. Confidence remains high that Iona will stay well south of
the Hawaiian Islands.

Environmental conditions appear primed for further intensification
during the next 24 hours. Iona will remain over warm sea surface
temperatures near 28C, with sufficient mid-level moisture and
minimal vertical wind shear. The latest ECMWF SHIPS guidance
indicates a greater than a 40 percent probability of a 30-knot
intensity increase within 24 hours. Given the improving structure
and conducive environment, the intensity forecast explicitly calls
for rapid intensification during the next 24 hours, with Iona
expected to become a major hurricane on Tuesday. Steady weakening
is forecast to begin Tuesday night or Wednesday as the system moves
over slightly cooler waters, encounters increasing westerly vertical
wind shear, and begins to entrain drier mid-level air. Iona is
expected to weaken to tropical depression status by day 5, and it is
possible the system could become a post-tropical remnant low by that
time. The intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly upward from
the previous advisory, reflecting the latest trends in the intensity
guidance. This aligns well with regional hurricane models through
day 2 and then closely follows the HCCA consensus guidance
thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 10.9N 152.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 10.9N 153.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 10.9N 156.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 10.9N 159.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 11.2N 162.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 11.5N 166.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 12.1N 170.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 13.7N 178.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 15.9N 176.5E 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 290253
TCMCP1

HURRICANE IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC TUE JUL 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 152.2W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 80NE 40SE 70SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 152.2W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 151.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.9N 153.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 10.9N 156.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 10.9N 159.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.2N 162.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.5N 166.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 170.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 178.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 15.9N 176.5E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 152.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 290253
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST MON JUL 28 2025

...IONA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 152.2W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IONA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 152.2 WEST. IONA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH IONA EXPECTED
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 282037
TCDCP1

Hurricane Iona Discussion Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

After rapidly strengthening overnight, the cloud pattern and
overall structure of Iona has changed little during the past 6
hours. A fairly symmetric Central Dense Overcast is seen over the
center in geostationary satellite imagery, but there has been no
recent microwave data to examine the inner core structure. The
latest subjective satellite intensity estimates are T4.0/65 kt
from SAB, and T3.5/55 kt from both PHFO and JTWC. Objective
estimates remain lower, although it is possible that the small size
of the cyclone is making it difficult for those techniques to
capture the true intensity. The initial intensity for this advisory
will remain 65 kt, in line with the higher subjective estimate from
SAB.

Iona is located within a low-shear environment and over sea surface
temperatures of around 28C. Those conditions favor strengthening,
however some nearby dry mid-level air may have been entrained in
the circulation which likely caused the recent pause in
intensification. Given the favorable upper-air pattern and warm
sea surface temperatures, additional strengthening appears likely.
The regional hurricane models are more aggressive this cycle and
indicate that Iona could be near or at major hurricane strength in
a day or so. As a result, the lastest official forecast calls
for rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours and the peak
intensity is raised slightly from the previous advisory. Around
midweek, slightly lower SSTs and an increase in vertical
wind shear are expected to cause gradual weakening through the
remainder of the forecast period. The updated NHC intensity
forecast is close to the regional models through 24 hours, and then
follows the latest multi-model (IVCN) consensus aid after that time.

Iona is moving westward or 270 degrees at 9 kt. The storm is
forecast to move along the southern portion of a subtropical ridge
that is well established over the central Pacific. This steering
pattern should take the storm westward during the next day or so,
followed by a faster west-northwestward motion after midweek. The
updated track forecast is once again near the center of the model
envelope, close to the various consensus aids. Confidence remains
high that Iona will stay well south of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 10.6N 151.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 10.6N 152.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 10.6N 155.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 10.7N 157.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 10.9N 161.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 11.2N 164.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 11.7N 168.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 12.9N 175.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 14.7N 178.5E 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 282036
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST MON JUL 28 2025

...IONA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 151.0W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IONA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 151.0 WEST. IONA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR TWO. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDWEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 282036
TCMCP1

HURRICANE IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC MON JUL 28 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 151.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 151.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 150.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 10.6N 152.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 10.6N 155.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 10.7N 157.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 10.9N 161.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 11.2N 164.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 11.7N 168.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 12.9N 175.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 14.7N 178.5E
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 151.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 281439
TCDCP1

Hurricane Iona Discussion Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Iona has continued to become better organized overnight with a
couple of recent microwave images depicting a well-defined low- to
mid-level eye feature. Recent geostationary satellite imagery has
shown what appears to be a banded-type eye becoming apparent. The
latest subjective satellite intensity estimates were T4.0/65 kt from
SAB, T3.5/55 kt from PHFO, and T3.0/45 kt from JTWC. Given the
recent improvement in structure as seen in the microwave images, the
initial intensity is increased to 65 kt, making Iona the first
hurricane in the Central Pacific basin of the 2025 hurricane season.

Iona remains in an environment favorable for strengthening. The
cyclone is over SSTs of around 28C, and the shear is forecast to
remain 10 kt or less during the next 24 to 36 hours. The only
inhibiting factor appears to be some drier mid-level air in the
surrounding environment. Given these conditions, steady to
possibly rapid strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 to
36 hours, and the official intensity forecast again shows a
higher peak than the previous advisory. After 36 hours, slightly
lower SSTs and an increase in vertical wind shear are likely to
result in gradual weakening throughout much of the remainder of the
forecast period. The updated intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the FSSE, HCCA, and IVCN consensus aids, and is
close to the peak shown by most of the regional hurricane models.

The storm is moving westward or 270 degrees at around 10 kt. There
has been no change in the track forecast reasoning. Iona should
continue to move westward along the southern side of a mid-level
ridge during the next couple of days. After that time, a faster
west-northwestward motion is expected as Iona reaches the
southwestern portion of the ridge. The updated track forecast is
very similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the various
track consensus aids. Confidence remains high that Iona will stay
well south of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 10.7N 150.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 10.7N 151.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 10.7N 153.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 10.8N 156.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 11.0N 159.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 11.4N 162.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 11.8N 166.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 12.9N 173.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 14.6N 179.1E 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 281438
TCMCP1

HURRICANE IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC MON JUL 28 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 150.1W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 150.1W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 149.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 10.7N 151.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.7N 153.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 10.8N 156.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.0N 159.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.4N 162.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.8N 166.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 12.9N 173.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 179.1E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 150.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 281438
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST MON JUL 28 2025

...IONA QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.1W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IONA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 150.1 WEST. IONA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
DAY OR TWO. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
MIDWEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 280840
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 27 2025

The satellite presentation of Iona has improved this evening, with a
well-defined curved banding structure and excellent upper-level
outflow evident in all quadrants. A recent 28/0650Z Metop-C ASCAT
pass showed a few wind barbs near 40 knots. The latest subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates came in at 3.0/45 knots from
PHFO, 3.0/45 knots from SAB, and 2.5/35 knots from JTWC. Objective
intensity estimates ranged from 42 to 49 knots. Taking a blend of
these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been raised
to 45 knots, which may still be slightly conservative.

Tropical Storm Iona is moving westward at 270 degrees/10 knots. This
general motion is expected to continue over the next several days as
the cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a subtropical
ridge to the north. A gradual increase in forward speed is also
expected, due to a strengthening low- to mid-level ridge north of
the system. The track forecast remains closely aligned with a blend
of the FSSE, HCCA, and GFEX consensus guidance and is nearly
unchanged from the previous advisory. Confidence remains high that
Iona will stay well south of the Hawaiian Islands.

The environment appears conducive for further intensification over
the next day or so, as Iona remains over warm waters near 28C, with
adequate mid-level moisture and very light vertical wind shear. In
fact, the latest GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance indicates more than a
30 percent chance of a 25-knot increase in intensity over the next
24 hours. Given the current structure and favorable conditions, the
intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during
the next 24 hours, with Iona expected to become a hurricane late
Monday or Monday night. Iona should reach peak intensity Monday
night or Tuesday, with steady weakening anticipated beginning
Tuesday night, as the system moves over slightly cooler waters,
begins to experience increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and
starts to entrain drier mid-level air. The cyclone is expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low by Day 5 and could potentially
weaken into a trough by that time. The intensity forecast has been
raised from the previous advisory to reflect the latest trends in
the guidance, and is best aligned with the FSSE and IVCN consensus
solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 10.9N 149.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 10.9N 150.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 10.9N 152.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 11.0N 155.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 11.2N 158.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 11.6N 161.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 12.0N 164.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 12.9N 172.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 14.5N 179.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 280837
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC MON JUL 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 149.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 149.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 148.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 10.9N 150.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 10.9N 152.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 11.0N 155.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.2N 158.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.6N 161.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.0N 164.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 280837
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SUN JUL 27 2025

...IONA STRENGTHENS WELL SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 149.3W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 149.3 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH IONA FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 280231
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Jul 27 2025

A strong burst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops below
-80C developed over the low-level center of the tropical cyclone
well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands earlier this morning into the
early afternoon. This activity has recently subsided, but the
satellite presentation has improved since the previous advisory,
with well-defined banding structures now evident. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC all
came in at 2.5/35 knots, while the objective intensity estimates
ranged from 35 to 42 knots. Taking a blend of these data, the
initial intensity for this advisory has been raised to, perhaps a
conservative 35 knots, making Iona the first named storm of the
season in the central Pacific.

Tropical Storm Iona is moving westward at 270/9 knots. This general
westward motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days as the system moves along the southern periphery of a
subtropical ridge to the north. By Tuesday night or Wednesday, Iona
is expected to increase its forward speed due to a strengthening
low-to-mid-level ridge north of the system. The track forecast
closely follows a blend of the FSSE and HCCA consensus guidance and
is very close to the track from the previous advisory. Confidence
remains high that Iona will stay well to the south of the Hawaiian
Islands.

The environment appears conducive to further intensification over
the next day or so, as Iona remains over warm waters around 28C,
with adequate mid-level moisture and very light vertical wind shear.
As a result, the intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening,
with the cyclone expected to near hurricane strength by Monday night
or Tuesday. However, by Tuesday night, Iona will begin to move over
slightly cooler waters, begin to feel the influence of increasing
westerly vertical wind shear, and start to entrain drier mid-level
air. This is expected to result in steady weakening, with the
cyclone likely becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Day 5 and
potentially weakening into a trough by that time. The intensity
forecast has been raised from the previous advisory, following the
latest trends in the intensity guidance, and is best aligned with
the FSSE and HCCA consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 10.9N 148.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 11.0N 149.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 11.0N 151.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 11.0N 153.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 11.1N 156.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 11.5N 159.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 12.1N 162.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 13.0N 170.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 14.4N 177.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 280230
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM IONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC MON JUL 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 148.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 148.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 147.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 11.0N 149.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 11.0N 151.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.0N 153.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.1N 156.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.5N 159.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.1N 162.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 13.0N 170.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 14.4N 177.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 148.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 280230
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IONA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SUN JUL 27 2025

...IONA BECOMES THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 148.3W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 148.3 WEST. IONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH IONA REMAINING
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 272130
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 27 2025

...DEPRESSION REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 147.4W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 147.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 272100
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN JUL 27 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 147.4W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 147.4W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 147.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 11.1N 148.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 11.2N 150.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.2N 152.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 11.2N 155.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.5N 158.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.8N 161.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 12.5N 168.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 13.9N 176.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 147.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 272035
TCDCP1

Tropical Depression One-C Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 27 2025

The system continues to become better organized this morning, with
deep convection in curved banding generally to the west of the
center. Recent imagery shows that convection has been developing the
last few hours near the low-level center, with some increased
curvature. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from HFO
and SAB were T/2.0 this cycle. A scatterometer pass is expected
shortly which should give a better idea of the surface winds. Using
the Dvorak estimates, the intensity is held at 30 kt.

The system is moving westward at about 270/10 kt. A westward motion
is expected the next several days as the cyclone moves on the south
side of a mid-level ridge. There continues to be some spread in the
along track guidance, although there is high confidence on the
system remaining well south of the Hawaiian islands. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous, and lies closest to the HCCA
corrected consensus aids.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual
strengthening the next couple of days. The hurricane regional models
remain at the higher end of the guidance envelope, and the latest
NHC forecast is near the previous. Beyond 48 h, a gradual weakening
trend should begin as the system moves over slightly cooler sea
surface temperatures, a drier airmass, and vertical wind shear is
expected to increase. The gradual weakening trend will cause the
system to become a remnant low by day 5, potentially even opening
into a trough.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 11.0N 147.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 11.1N 148.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 11.2N 150.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 11.2N 152.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 11.2N 155.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 11.5N 158.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 11.8N 161.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 12.5N 168.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 13.9N 176.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 271439
TCDCP1

Tropical Depression One-C Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Jul 27 2025

There has not been much change with the depression over the past
several hours. Deep convection has been persisting in some curved
bands near and generally to the west of the center. Earlier
microwave images suggest that the circulation is quite tilted in the
vertical, with the low-level center located to the southwest of the
mid-level vortex. All of the satellite intensity estimates are
around 30 kt, and therefore, the initial wind speed is held at that
value.

The system is moving nearly due westward at about 11 kt. A
continued westward motion is expected through the week as the
cyclone moves on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge.
Although there is some spread in the guidance, there is high
confidence that the system should stay well south of the Hawaiian
Islands. The NHC track forecast leans toward the southern side of
the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the HCCA consensus
aid. This forecast is quite close to the previous one.

The environmental conditions favor slow strengthening during the
next couple of days, and therefore, the NHC forecast follows the
previous one and shows strengthening to a mid-grade tropical storm
during that time period. However, this intensity forecast is a
little lower than the HCCA and IVCN models since it might take some
time for the vortex to align vertically and organize. Weakening
should begin beyond a couple of days when the system moves over
slightly cooler waters and into an environment of drier air and
moderate to strong shear. The cyclone is forecast to become a
remnant low by day 5, but it could open into a trough by then.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 11.0N 146.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 11.1N 147.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 11.2N 149.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 11.4N 151.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 11.6N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 11.7N 156.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 11.8N 159.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 12.2N 167.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 13.2N 174.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 271439
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SUN JUL 27 2025

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 146.6W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 146.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 271438
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN JUL 27 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 146.6W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 146.6W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 146.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 11.1N 147.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 11.2N 149.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 11.4N 151.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.6N 153.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.7N 156.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.8N 159.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 12.2N 167.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N 174.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 146.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 270831
TCDCP1

Tropical Depression One-C Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 26 2025

Deep convection has persisted over the area of low pressure well
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands for the last 12 hours or so, with
the latest satellite images showing improved organization and a
better defined banding structure. The latest subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates came in at 2.0/30 knots from PHFO,
1.5/25 knots from SAB, and 1.0/25 knots from JTWC. A recent
27/0620Z Metop-B ASCAT pass showed a well-defined low-level
circulation with a large swath of 25-knot winds and a few embedded
25- to 30-knot wind barbs. Given the improved structure and
organization of the system, advisories are being initiated on the
first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific,
Tropical Depression One-C. The initial intensity will be set at 30
knots.

Tropical Depression One-C is moving toward the west, or 270 degrees,
at 10 knots. This general westward motion is expected to continue
over the next couple of days as the system moves along the southern
periphery of a subtropical ridge to the north. Beyond 48 hours, the
forward speed is expected to increase considerably in response to a
low- to mid-level ridge strengthening to the north of cyclone. The
track forecast closely follows a blend of the TVCE and HCCA
consensus guidance.

The environment will remain conducive for intensification over the
next couple of days, as One-C remains over warm waters between 28
and 29C, with adequate mid-level moisture and light to moderate
easterly shear. As a result, the intensity forecast calls for
steady strengthening during this time, with One-C becoming Tropical
Storm Iona on Sunday. Beyond 60 hours, the cyclone will begin to
experience increasing westerly vertical wind shear while also
entraining drier mid-level air. This is expected to lead to steady
weakening, with the system becoming a tropical depression again
around day 5. The intensity forecast is best aligned with the HCCA
intensity consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 10.9N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 10.9N 146.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 11.2N 148.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 11.5N 150.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 11.5N 152.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 11.5N 154.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 11.7N 157.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 12.2N 164.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 12.9N 171.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 270830
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SUN JUL 27 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 145.6W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 145.6W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 145.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 10.9N 146.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 11.2N 148.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 11.5N 150.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.5N 152.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 11.5N 154.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.7N 157.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 12.2N 164.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 12.9N 171.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 145.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 270830
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SAT JUL 26 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 145.6W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=