Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TWO-C-25
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 302056
TCDCP2

Remnants Of Keli Discussion Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

Convection associated with Keli has largely collapsed. Based on
the geostationary visible imagery, it appears the low-level
circulation has opened into a trough on the northern side of Iona.
The remnants of Keli are moving westward at around 15 kt within
the northeastern circulation of Iona and this motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so.

This will be the last advisory issued for Keli. For additional
information, see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service under WMO header FZPN02 KWBC and AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 13.9N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 302052
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF KELI ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST WED JUL 30 2025

...KELI OPENS INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 156.6W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF KELI WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.6 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KELI, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 302051
TCMCP2

REMNANTS OF KELI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC WED JUL 30 2025

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 156.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 156.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 155.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 156.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KELI, PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC AND AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFNPI.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 301435
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

While initially appearing a little more organized on satellite
infrared imagery, Keli's convection has become more fragmented
during the past few hours. Subjective Dvorak estimates range from
T2.0/30 kt to T3.0/45 kt and the initial intensity is still held at
35 kt to represent a blend of these estimates. First-light visible
satellite data should hopefully reveal more useful information about
the state of the low-level circulation.

Keli is moving rapidly westward at about 18 kt. A combination of
the ridging to the north and Iona to the southeast continue to the
be the major steering features. The track guidance is closely
clustered, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged to show a
slightly faster forward motion. Strong vertical wind shear, dry
mid-level humdities, and marginal sea surface temperatures will all
contribute to Keli's weakening and dissipation during the next day
or so. While the official intensity forecast still maintains
dissipation at 36 h, numerical models suggest this could occur even
sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 13.8N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.2N 158.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 14.9N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 301434
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM KELI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC WED JUL 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 155.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 155.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 154.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.2N 158.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.9N 161.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 155.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 301434
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KELI ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST WED JUL 30 2025

...KELI RACING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 155.5W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KELI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.5 WEST. KELI IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH (33 KM/H). A FAST WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KELI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATER TODAY
AND DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 300843
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 29 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Keli continues to produce organized
deep convection, and the latest subjective Dvorak numbers from SAB,
PHFO and JTWC are a consensus 2.5/2.5. The recent objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30 to 40 kt. The
advisory intensity estimate is held at 35 kt. The storm remains
quite small with only about a 30 n mi extent of 34-kt winds from the
center.

Keli is moving faster, with the motion estimated to be westward, or
280/18 kt. This faster westward motion is due to its proximity to
the east-northeast of Iona, as well as the mid-level ridging
located well to the north of the cyclone. The track guidance is in
good agreement, and the official forecast has been nudged to show a
slightly faster forward motion.

Although Keli is hanging on as a tropical storm for the moment, it
is not likely to last for more than another day or so. Increasing
vertical wind shear from the outflow of Iona is likely to cause
weakening, and Keli's inflow should be soon disrupted by Iona's
low-level circulation. The official forecast calls for weakening
and dissipation in 36 hours or so. The global models indicate
that dissipation could occur a bit sooner than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 13.5N 153.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.9N 156.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 14.5N 160.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 300842
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KELI ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2025

...KELI MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WHILE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL
STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 153.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KELI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 153.7 WEST. KELI IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH (33 KM/H). A FAST WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KELI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 300842
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM KELI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC WED JUL 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 153.7W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 153.7W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 152.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.9N 156.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.5N 160.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 153.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 300243
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Jul 29 2025

Keli appears to be maintaining its intensity...for now. The system
continues to produce rather small areas of convection with limited
banding features over the eastern semicircle. Overall, however,
the tropical cyclone's cloud pattern is not very well organized.
The advisory intensity estimate is held at 35 kt in agreement with
subjective Dvorak numbers from SAB and PHFO along with objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS. The storm remains quite small with only
about a 30 n mi extent of 34-kt winds from the center.

The storm continues to gradually accelerate with an initial motion
estimate now of about 280/16 kt. Keli is being steered by the flow
on the south side of a mid-level ridge and appears to also be
starting to get caught up in the northeast quadrant of the outer
circulation of larger Hurricane Iona. The track guidance models
have generally shifted a little northward with an additional
increase in forward speed. The official forecast has again been
nudged poleward and faster.

Although Keli is hanging on as a tropical storm for the moment, it
is not likely to last for more than a couple of days. Westerly
vertical shear from the outflow of Iona is likely to cause
weakening, and Keli's inflow should be soon disrupted by Iona's
low-level circulation. The official forecast continues to call for
weakening and dissipation in 48 hours or so. This is also in good
agreement with the IVCN intensity model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 13.1N 151.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 13.7N 154.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 14.2N 157.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 14.6N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 300243
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KELI ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2025

...KELI MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 151.7W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KELI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 151.7 WEST. KELI IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H) AND A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
KELI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION ON WEDNESDAY AND
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.
.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 300242
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM KELI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC WED JUL 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 151.7W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 151.7W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 150.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.7N 154.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.2N 157.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.6N 161.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 151.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 292037
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 29 2025

Keli is a ragged-looking tropical storm. Thunderstorms have been
developing in the eastern semicircle of the the circulation
suggesting some decrease in the southeasterly shear. Satellite
intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC were T2.5 and T2.0,
respectively, and the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt. Keli
is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward from the center about 30 n mi.

The storm appears to be gradually accelerating and is moving
westward at 13 kt. A narrow ridge to the north should continue to
steer Keli westward through the next day or so. The track guidance
envelope has shifted northward and increased in forward speed this
cycle. Thus, the official track forecast has been nudged poleward
and is slightly faster, lying between the previous forecast and the
various consensus aids.

Only minimal changes have been made to the intensity forecast.
Atmospheric conditions and the storm's proximity to Hurricane
Iona are expected to gradually weaken Keli. Model guidance has been
advancing the dissipation of this small storm, and the official
forecast now shows Keli opening into a trough by 48 h. However,
dissipation could still occur sooner than expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.8N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.2N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.6N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.8N 159.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 292036
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KELI ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2025

...KELI HEADING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 149.9W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KELI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 149.9 WEST. KELI IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
KELI IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 292036
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM KELI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC TUE JUL 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 149.9W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 149.9W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 149.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.2N 152.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.6N 155.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.8N 159.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 149.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 291436
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Jul 29 2025


Keli has been holding steady since the previous advisory. Cold
cloud tops over the storm initially warmed, but recent fresh
convection has been growing just west of the low-level center. The
subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC
remained at T2.0 and the intensity is held at 35 kt for this cycle.
Keli is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward from the center about 30 n mi.

A mid-level ridge to the north of Keli is steering the storm
westward at about 11 kt. Model guidance, and the NHC official track
forecast, predict the forward motion of the storm slightly
increasing during the next couple of days while maintaining a
westward trajectory.

The intensity forecast reasoning has not changed. While sea surface
temperatures are sufficiently warm, environmental conditions are
expected to become gradually less conducive. Therefore, Keli is
predicted to hold steady for the next day or so until it begins to
weaken. The latest official forecast now show Keli dissipating
by 60 h, based on the latest model guidance. However, Keli is a
small storm and could dissipate sooner than expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 12.5N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 12.8N 150.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 13.2N 153.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 13.4N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 13.4N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 291436
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KELI ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2025

...KELI HOLDING STEADY WHILE HEADING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 148.0W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KELI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 148.0 WEST. KELI IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 291435
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM KELI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 148.0W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 148.0W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 147.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.8N 150.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.2N 153.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.4N 156.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.4N 159.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 148.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 290835
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Keli has not changed much this evening, with an area of deep
convection to the west of the low-level center. The system is
struggling to become better organized due to vertical wind shear.
The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T2.0 from
both PHFO and JTWC. Using these estimates and satellite trends, the
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Keli is a small
tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward
about 30 n mi from the center.

The storm is moving westward, with an estimated motion of 280/10 kt.
Keli is forecast to continue moving generally westward for the next
few days steered by a mid-level ridge north of the system. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous, although with a
slightly faster forward motion.

Keli is forecast to remain over warm sea surface temperatures, but
wind shear is forecast to increase later today, thus the official
intensity forecast shows little change in intensity during the next
day or so. As Keli continues to feel the upper-level outflow of
nearby Hurricane Iona the system should begin to weaken by 36 h, and
dissipate by Day 3. The official intensity forecast lies near the
simple and corrected consensus aids. Global models indicate that the
shear could take its toll on Keli quicker than forecast, and due to
the small storm size it is possible that the system could dissipate
into a trough earlier then officially forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 12.5N 146.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 12.7N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 13.1N 151.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.3N 154.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 13.3N 157.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 13.2N 160.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 290835
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KELI ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST MON JUL 28 2025

...KELI MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 146.6W
ABOUT 960 MI...1550 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KELI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 146.6 WEST. KELI IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 290834
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM KELI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE JUL 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 146.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 146.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 146.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.7N 148.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.1N 151.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.3N 154.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.3N 157.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.2N 160.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 146.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 290233
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Keli is producing a small area of deep
convection near and just west of the estimated center position.
There is little evidence of convective banding features, although
there are some curved cloud lines noted over the eastern portion
of the system on visible imagery. Overall, the cloud pattern is
rather disorganized with the storm experiencing easterly shear.
The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, which is a
little above the subjective Dvorak classifications and close to the
objective AIDT and DRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Keli is a small
tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward
about 30 n mi from the center.

The storm is moving westward, with a motion estimate of around
280/10 kt. Keli is expected to continue on a generally westward
track for the next few days while it remains on the south
side of a narrow mid-level ridge. Most of the track models have
shifted north and are faster than in the previous advisory, and the
official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Slight additional strengthening is possible during the next day or
so while Keli moves over relatively warm waters. However the
unfavorable dynamical influence of the low-level circulation and
upper-level outflow of nearby Hurricane Iona should result in a
weakening trend in around 36 hours. The global models show the
system weakening into a trough in a few days. Therefore, Keli could
dissipate sooner than shown in this official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 12.3N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 12.4N 147.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 12.8N 150.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 13.2N 153.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 13.2N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 13.1N 159.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 13.0N 162.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 290234
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KELI ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST MON JUL 28 2025

...KELI SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 145.5W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KELI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.5 WEST. KELI IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, HOWEVER,
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 290232
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM KELI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC TUE JUL 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 145.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 145.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 145.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.4N 147.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.8N 150.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.2N 153.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.2N 156.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.1N 159.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.0N 162.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 145.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 282034
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

ASCAT data from around 1830 Z showed a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds just north of the center of the system.
Based on that data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical
storm Keli with maximum winds of about 35 kt. Although the winds
are estimated to be higher than earlier this morning, satellite
images indicate that the deep convection has generally decreased
during the past few hours. Keli is a very compact storm with its
associated cloud field extending only about 90 n mi across.

The storm is moving westward at about 9 kt. Keli is expected to
continue westward, following Iona, during the next few days as it
remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. The latest
track models have trended a little to the north and are faster this
cycle, and the official forecast has been nudged in those
directions.

The environmental conditions could favor a little more strengthening
during the next day or so while the storm is over relatively warm
water, embedded in a moist air mass, and in generally moderate
shear conditions. By the middle of the week, however, Iona's outflow
will likely impinge on the cyclone. These unfavorable upper-level
winds and stable air should end the opportunity for strengthening
and cause weakening. Most of the models show Keli dissipating in
about 2 days, except for the GFS which hangs on to the cyclone for
about 3 days. Based on the latest guidance, the official forecast
has moved up dissipation by 24 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 12.1N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 12.1N 146.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 12.1N 148.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 12.3N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 12.3N 153.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 12.2N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 11.9N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 282033
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Keli Advisory Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KELI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 144.5W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Keli was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 144.5 West. Keli is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a general westward
motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so, however,
weakening should begin around the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 282033
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM KELI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC MON JUL 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 144.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 144.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 144.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.1N 146.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.1N 148.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.3N 151.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.3N 153.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.2N 156.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 11.9N 159.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 144.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 281441
TCDCP2

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Satellite data indicate that a new tropical depression has formed
over the central Pacific basin a little less than 400 n mi
east-northeast of Hurricane Iona. ASCAT data from several hours ago
indicated that the system had a well-defined circulation
with maximum winds of about 30 kt north of the center. More
recently, microwave images show that the system is very compact, and
its cloud pattern extends no more than 90 n mi across. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the
latest satellite intensity estimates. It should be noted that the
formation of this system was poorly predicted by most of the
models. The small size of the depression, the complexity of the
ITCZ breakdown, and close proximity to Iona all contributed to the
forecasting difficulties.

The depression is moving westward at about 11 kt, but this motion is
somewhat uncertain since it has only recently formed. The system is
expected to continue westward, following Iona, during the next few
days as it remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge.
The cyclone might move a little south of due west late in the week
when it is expected to weaken and move in the low-level flow. The
official track forecast generally follows the various consensus
aids.

The environmental conditions could favor a little strengthening
during the next day or so while the depression is over relatively
warm water, embedded in a moist airmass, and in generally low shear
conditions. However, as Iona gets stronger by the middle of the
week, its outflow will likely impinge on the depression. This should
end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening. In fact,
the models show little to no strengthening and seem to have a poor
grasp on the cyclone. Therefore, the official intensity forecast
lies above all of the guidance in the short term given recent trends
and the system’s current structure.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 12.0N 143.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.0N 144.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 12.0N 146.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 12.0N 148.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 12.0N 151.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 11.9N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 11.7N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 11.0N 162.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 281440
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST MON JUL 28 2025

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 143.6W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1840 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 143.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, HOWEVER,
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 281439
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC MON JUL 28 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 143.6W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 143.6W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 143.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.0N 144.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.0N 146.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.0N 148.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.0N 151.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.9N 154.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.7N 157.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 11.0N 162.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 143.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=