Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IVO-25
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 111600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 23.1N 119.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 119.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.4N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.5N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 119.8W.
11AUG25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS
1008 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WARNING NR 20 TO SHOW IT IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON TD 09E (IVO).
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 111433
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025

THE LAST BIT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO DISSIPATED ABOUT 15
HOURS AGO, AND IT HAS THEREFORE DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT, AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. IVO IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH--AND THUS DISSIPATE--IN ABOUT 36 HOURS, AS
DEPICTED IN GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS. UNTIL THAT TIME, A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE REMNANT LOW WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 KT, AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 23.2N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 12/0000Z 23.4N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1200Z 23.5N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 111432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...IVO NOW A REMNANT LOW, AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 119.6W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo
was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 119.6 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the west at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts, and Ivo has degenerated into a remnant low. The
remnant low is expected to dissipate by late Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 111431
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 119.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 119.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 119.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.4N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 119.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 110847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025

...IVO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 118.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND IVO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER THIS MORNING. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 110847
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025

IVO HAS BECOME DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT WHICH COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS BASED ON
PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES.

THE MOTION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR AROUND 295/9 KT. IVO
SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA,
SOLUTION.

SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EVEN COOLER WATERS DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, IT IS UNLIKELY TO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION. THUS THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VERY SOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 22.7N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0600Z 23.0N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 110846
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0900 UTC MON AUG 11 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 118.7W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 118.7W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.0N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 118.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 110230
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2025

...IVO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 117.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND IVO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW EARLY MONDAY. THE REMNANT LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 110231
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2025

COOL WATERS, DRY AIR, AND NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE
TAKING A TOLL ON IVO. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY DECLINING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON ITS WAY
TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30
KT, MAKING IVO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE HOSTILE, IVO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING. IT IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW EARLY MONDAY
AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. A WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND THIS ONE LIES
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 22.3N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 22.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 22.8N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 110230
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0300 UTC MON AUG 11 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.8N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.8N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 102031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...IVO RESILIENTLY MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER COOL
WATER...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 117.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 117.2 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward and then westward motion at a similar forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a remnant low
on Monday. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 102032
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2025

EVEN OVER WATERS OF 23-24 DEGREES CELSIUS, IVO IS MANAGING TO
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT. ACCOUNTING FOR THE INSTRUMENT'S
SAMPLING LIMITATIONS, AND COMBINED WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL
RUNNING AROUND 35 KT, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT IVO IS HANGING ON TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BY ANOTHER 2-3
DEGREES ALONG IVO'S FORECAST TRACK, SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME TONIGHT, AND SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION COULD FINALLY BE GONE BY MONDAY
MORNING. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST BY 24 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION INTO A TROUGH IN 60 HOURS.

IVO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (285 DEG) AT 10 KT. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT BEND TO
THE WEST IN 24 HOURS AS IVO STAYS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 22.1N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 22.9N 125.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 102031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
2100 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 117.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 117.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.9N 125.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 101435
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2025

...IVO FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 116.1W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION AT A SIMILAR SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND IVO IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY. THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 101435
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2025

IVO IS MAINTAINING A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION, NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUPPORT HOLDING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WHILE ALSO CONTENDING WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND
WEAKENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IVO SHOULD LOSE ALL ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24
HOURS, AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH IN
60 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST (290/9
KT). LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP IVO ON A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT A FAIRLY STEADY SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS WELL WITHIN
THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 21.9N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 23.0N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 23.2N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 23.2N 124.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 101434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
1500 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.1W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.1W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 115.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.0N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.2N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 116.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100833
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM MST SUN AUG 10 2025

...IVO WEAKENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 114.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100834
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM MST SUN AUG 10 2025

IVO IS WEAKENING WHILE IT PASSES OVER THE COOLER WATERS WELL TO THE
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
IS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. DATA FROM AN
EXCELLENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS JUST BEFORE 0500 UTC SHOWED THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES FROM TAFB AND SAB, ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK VALUES FROM
UW-CIMSS GAVE A SIMILAR INTENSITY ESTIMATE, INDICATING THAT IVO IS
NOW AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR AT ABOUT 285/7 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF IVO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TURN MORE WESTWARD WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN A DAY OR SO AS THE INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

IVO IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE, AND
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 21.5N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 22.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 23.1N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100832
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0900 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 114.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 114.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 114.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.7N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.1N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
800 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025

...IVO EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 114.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 114.1 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the west with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is anticipated. Ivo is forecast to become
post-tropical near the end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100232
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 PM MST SAT AUG 09 2025

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECREASE
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, BUT THE CYCLONE'S OVERALL APPEARANCE HASN'T
CHANGED DRASTICALLY. THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS STILL 45 KT, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT
UW-CIMSS SATCON, VALID AROUND 2210 UTC (43 KT). THEREFORE, NO CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE 45-KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO ANY ASPECT OF THE NHC FORECAST.
IVO IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AS SHOWN BY ALL OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS,
ECMWF AND HAFS MODELS INDICATES IVO WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN
ABOUT 36 H. IVO'S MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, STILL AT 6 KT.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT IVO WILL GRADUALLY TURN DUE
WEST IN A DAY OR TWO AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE MODEL FORECAST AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO ALL
ASPECTS OF IVO'S EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 21.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 21.7N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 22.8N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 23.0N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 23.1N 124.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0300 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 114.1W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 114.1W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.8N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.0N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.1N 124.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 114.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 092037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025

...IVO WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 113.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 113.5 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Ivo is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 092038
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 PM MST SAT AUG 09 2025

MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS DISPLACING MOST OF IVO'S CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE CENTER, AND THE CONVECTIVE MASS ITSELF HAS BEGUN TO
SHRINK. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON A T3.0
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB, AND THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 38 KT (BUT IS LIKELY LIMITED
BY THE INSTRUMENT'S RESOLUTION). CONTINUED MODERATE SHEAR,
GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A STABLE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF IVO ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND. GFS-
AND ECMWF-BASED SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ALL DEEP CONVECTION
DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS, WHICH IS WHEN IVO IS SHOWN DEGENERATING
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DISSIPATION IS NOW
EXPECTED BY DAY 3, WHICH IS WHEN THE REMNANT LOW LOSES ITS
INTEGRITY IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS.

IVO HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD, OR 280/6 KT. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IVO ON A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH DISSIPATION. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK
MODELS, AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NEW NHC
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 21.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 092037
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 091439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
800 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025

...IVO FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 112.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 112.7 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster
motion toward the west-northwest and then west is expected during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Ivo is likely
to become post-tropical by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 091440
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
1500 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.9N 115.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.7N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.6N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 112.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 091440
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 AM MST SAT AUG 09 2025

IVO IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WITH ITS
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5/55 KT AND 3.0/45 KT,
RESPECTIVELY, WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM
35-55 KT. IVO'S INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT, LEANING TOWARD THE
BLEND OF CI NUMBERS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS IN 12-24 HOURS, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE AND MORE CONVERGENT ALOFT. AS A
RESULT, STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND IVO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
TOO HOSTILE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE REMNANT LOW
WILL LAST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AFTER THAT, LIKELY OPENING UP INTO A
TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

IVO'S POSITION WAS ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH BASED ON RECENT DATA, WHICH
ENDED UP SHIFTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. STILL, THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IVO WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD, STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND TVCE
CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 21.0N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 21.4N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 21.9N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z 22.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 22.6N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090839
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
200 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025

...IVO HEADING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 112.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 112.4 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast for the next few days and Ivo is
expected to become post-tropical by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090839
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM MST SAT AUG 09 2025

IVO IS HAVING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0412 UTC SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE
SMALL CIRCULATION NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED
IN RECENT HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR
THIS CYCLE.

THE STORM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE IVO IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A RIDGE POSITIONED
TO ITS NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED POLEWARD THIS CYCLE,
AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE ECMWF TO ITS SOUTH AND THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS AID
TVCE TO ITS NORTH.

IVO IS CURRENTLY CROSSING A COOLING GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOVING TOWARDS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, UNTIL IT
BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED LOWER BASED
ON THE DECREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 20.6N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 21.3N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 21.7N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 11/1800Z 22.1N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090838
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0900 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.4W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.4W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.9N 113.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.3N 115.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.1N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 112.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 20.4N 111.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 111.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.7N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.0N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.9N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.1N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.1N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 112.3W.
09AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 791 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090320
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.7N 113.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 114.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 120.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.1N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 112.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090232
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
800 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025

...IVO MOVING WESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 112.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 112.1 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early
Saturday, followed by a gradual weakening trend. Ivo is
forecast to become post-tropical by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090233
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 PM MST FRI AUG 08 2025

AFTER GAINING SOME STRENGTH EARLIER TODAY, IVO'S INTENSITY APPEARS
TO HAVE LEVELED OFF AGAIN. THE COMPACT STORM IS STILL PRODUCING A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN
WARMING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR APPEARS TO
BE ERODING SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
55 KT, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

IVO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY, BUT A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE STORM MOVES
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND
NOW SHOWS IVO BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
WHEN IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER COOL 23 TO 24 C WATERS.

THE STORM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
APPEARS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS IVO SHOULD BEING STEERED WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM AWAY
FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND OVER THE OPEN EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS, AND IS A TOUCH TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 20.5N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 20.7N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 21.0N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 11/1200Z 22.1N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 12/0000Z 22.1N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 110.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 110.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.5N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.7N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.0N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.5N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.8N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.9N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 111.4W.
08AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 817 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 082033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
200 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025

...IVO STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 111.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 111.2 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible through
Saturday, but weakening is expected to begin by Sunday. Ivo is
forecast to become post-tropical by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 082034
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 PM MST FRI AUG 08 2025

IVO'S STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS, WITH INNER CORE BANDING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. RECENT
WSF-M AND GMI MICROWAVE DATA WERE HELPFUL IN CONFIRMING THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE, AND ALSO SHOWED THAT IVO'S CENTER WAS LOCATED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. DESPITE THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE, THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGE FROM 55-65 KT,
WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE STUCK AT 40-45 KT. TO
ADD TO THE QUANDARY, ASCAT DATA ONLY SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT,
BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT IVO IS TOO SMALL FOR THE INSTRUMENT TO
EFFECTIVELY SAMPLE ITS MAXIMUM WINDS. FOR NOW, IVO'S MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE SET TO 55 KT.

THE STORM HAS TURNED WESTWARD AND CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 275/11 KT. A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION, BUT OTHERWISE
IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS WHILE IVO REMAINS IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, AND OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST, IVO COULD STILL
BECOME A HURRICANE BETWEEN THE NOMINAL FORECAST TIMES. ALL OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TURN DETRIMENTAL IN ABOUT
36 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN. IVO COULD LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL
IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 4 IN LINE WITH
THE ECWMF, UKMET, AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS, WITH THE GFS BEING
AN OUTLIER AND CONTINUING THE REMNANT LOW WESTWARD FOR ANOTHER DAY
OR SO AFTER THAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 20.4N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 20.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 20.7N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 21.0N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 21.8N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1800Z 21.9N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 082033
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
2100 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.2W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.2W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.7N 114.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 119.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.9N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 111.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 081435
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
800 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025

...IVO PASSING SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 110.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should continue to monitor the progress of Ivo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 110.1 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion at a slower speed is forecast during
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but weakening is
likely to begin on Saturday and continue into early next week. Ivo
could become post-tropical by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so, and are
beginning to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?ripCurrnets


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 081436
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 AM MST FRI AUG 08 2025

IVO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HASN'T CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED BENEATH THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WITH ONE SMALL CONVECTIVE BAND
FORMING ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB INCREASED TO T3.5/55 KT, HOWEVER THE SAB
ESTIMATE AND ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUCH LOWER. THEREFORE, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.

IVO IS SLOWING DOWN AND NOW HAS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INITIAL MOTION
AT 295/14 KT. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST, KEEPING IVO ON
A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST.

THE MORE COMPLICATED PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY. IVO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IN
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. BECAUSE OF THAT, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME STRENGTHENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FORECAST NO LONGER
EXPLICITLY SHOWS IVO BECOMING A HURRICANE, BUT THAT IS STILL A SMALL
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IF IVO IS CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN IS BEING
ESTIMATED. BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS, COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES,
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND LESS DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD CAUSE
THE STORM TO WEAKEN. SOME OF THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
EXACTLY HOW QUICK THAT WEAKENING WILL BE. FOR EXAMPLE, THE GFS
MAINTAINS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS,
WHILE THE ECWMF DEGENERATES IVO INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. AS A COMPROMISE, THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS IVO BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL BY 60 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 5, IF NOT SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 20.7N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 21.1N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.3N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.3N 114.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 081435
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
1500 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 110.1W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 110.1W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.1N 111.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.3N 113.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.3N 114.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 110.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.2N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.6N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.7N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.8N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.1N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.2N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.2N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 109.3W.
08AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 888 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 080916 CCA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM MST FRI AUG 08 2025

CORRECTED T-NUMBER IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH

IVO SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING TO THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING WITHIN THE CORE OF THE
STORM AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED A GROWING
CDO OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL STORM HAS MANAGED TO ELUDE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND NO NEW INFORMATION HAS
BEEN COLLECTED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS CYCLE BASED ON PERSISTENCE,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45
KT.

IVO IS MOVING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AT 295/18 KT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING THE
STORM TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. IVO IS FORECAST TO STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION
BEYOND THE 24 H FORECAST TIME.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL BRINGS
IVO UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN A DAY, HOWEVER THIS PEAK LIES
ABOVE ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
THE HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE MODEL
AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WHEN IVO MOVES
OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRY AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A FEW DAY AND OPEN INTO A
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 20.4N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 21.7N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.8N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 22.1N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 22.2N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 080845
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM MST FRI AUG 08 2025

IVO SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING TO THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING WITHIN THE CORE OF THE
STORM AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED A GROWING
CDO OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL STORM HAS MANAGED TO ELUDE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND NO NEW INFORMATION HAS
BEEN COLLECTED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS CYCLE BASED ON PERSISTENCE,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5/45
KT.

IVO IS MOVING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AT 295/18 KT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING THE
STORM TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. IVO IS FORECAST TO STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION
BEYOND THE 24 H FORECAST TIME.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL BRINGS
IVO UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN A DAY, HOWEVER THIS PEAK LIES
ABOVE ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
THE HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE MODEL
AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WHEN IVO MOVES
OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRY AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A FEW DAY AND OPEN INTO A
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 20.4N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 21.7N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.8N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 22.1N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 22.2N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 080843
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
200 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025

...IVO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 109.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula should continue to monitor
the progress of Ivo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 109.0 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed and a turn to the west are expected on Saturday,
and this motion should continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, Ivo is expected to pass well south of the Baja California
peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast for the next day or so, and Ivo could
become a hurricane later today or tonight. Weakening should begin
over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so, and are
forecast to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?ripCurrnets


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 080843
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0900 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.0W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.0W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 114.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.8N 116.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.1N 117.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.2N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 106.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 106.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.7N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.4N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.7N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.9N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.1N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.3N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.4N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 107.6W.
08AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 982 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080251Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 080250
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 PM MST THU AUG 07 2025

...IVO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 107.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IVO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H). A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, IVO IS EXPECTED TO PULL
AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND IVO
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF MICHOACA!N DE OCAMPO, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM IVO PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RIPCURRNETS


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 080251
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.4N 111.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.3N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.4N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 080251
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 PM MST THU AUG 07 2025

WHILE IVO HAS A COMPACT CORE WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION,
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS DISORGANIZED AND LACKS BANDING
FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT, NEAR THE HIGH END OF
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA. SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BRUSHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, LIKELY BRINGING AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. IVO'S TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAIN
OFFSHORE NEAR THE TINY CORE, AND ARE ESTIMATED TO ONLY EXTEND ABOUT
40 N MI FROM THE CENTER.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST AT 19 KT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, IVO IS
FORECAST TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST WITH A
NOTABLE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE IVO AWAY
FROM MAINLAND MEXICO AND WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH WARM SSTS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND HIGH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
IVO MIGHT NOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE CONDITIONS GIVEN ITS CURRENT
RAGGED STRUCTURE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE INTENSITY
MODELS WITH THE DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL AIDS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING WHILE THE GLOBAL AND HAFS GUIDANCE SHOW LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND LEANS CLOSER TO THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM, BUT THIS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN IVO
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN
AIR MASS OF DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 19.7N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 21.4N 111.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.3N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 22.4N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 105.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 105.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.1N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.1N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.5N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.6N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.7N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.9N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.5N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 106.1W.
07AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1082 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 072052Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 072120
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
300 PM CST THU AUG 07 2025

IVO REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE, THOUGH AN INTENSIFYING
ONE. DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST NEAR THE CENTER,
THOUGH THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL STORM DOES APPEAR MORE
RAGGED WITH EVIDENCE THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS TILTED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A HELPFUL METOP-B SCATTEROMETER
PASS AT 1643 UTC CAPTURED THE TINY CIRCULATION WITH A MAX WIND
RETRIEVAL OF 44 KT. ASSUMING THIS INSTRUMENT UNDERSAMPLED THE PEAK
WINDS OF THE SMALL CYCLONE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT
ESTIMATE.

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE QUITE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST,
WITH THE MOTION ESTIMATED AT 305/18 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
IS SIMILAR TO EARLIER, WHERE A STRONG AND EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
PARKED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD KEEP IVO MOVING QUICKLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK, IVO WILL SOON BEGIN PULLING AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. BY THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN SOME AND THE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS IVO WILL START TO BECOME
MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. A COMBINATION OF THESE INFLUENCES SHOULD
RESULT IN A WESTWARD TURN IN THE TRACK AND A SLOWDOWN IN THE FORWARD
MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR ONE, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE, BLENDING THE CONSENSUS AIDS HCCA AND TVCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST PRESENTS A CONUNDRUM THIS AFTERNOON. IVO HAS
A SMALL INNER CORE WIND FIELD, IS OVER WARM 29-30 C OCEAN WATERS,
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE IS LOW, ONLY
5-10 KT. ORDINARILY THESE VARIABLES WOULD SUGGEST THAT IVO COULD
UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), AND EC-SHIPS-RI
GUIDANCE NOW HAS A 71 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 H. HOWEVER, OTHER RI INDICES ARE LOWER, WITH DTOPS AT ONLY
12 PERCENT FOR THE SAME THRESHOLD. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE THAT IVO'S
STRUCTURE IS NOT IDEAL, WITH CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING ITS CIRCULATION IS TILTED SOUTHWEST WITH HEIGHT. THIS
VERTICAL TILT ALSO MATCHES THE STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT
HAFS-A/B MODEL GRIDS. THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY THE REGIONAL-HURRICANE
MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH IVO'S INTENSIFICATION THAN SHIPS,
AND ONLY HAFS-B BRIEFLY MAKES IVO A HURRICANE. THUS THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE LATEST SHIPS
GUIDANCE, ONLY TAKING IVO TO A 70 KT HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, THE STORM WILL CROSS A SHARP SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, IVO WILL LIKELY LOSE ITS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS, WHERE THE
LATEST FORECAST SHOWS IT BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE RELIABLE HCCA AID, BUT
IS LOWER THAN BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM AIDS.

GIVEN THE SMALL RADIUS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
IVO, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN AND ROUGH SURF
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OUTER BANDS OF IVO ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO, MICHOACAN DE OCAMPO AND COLIMA THROUGH FRIDAY WHERE FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 108.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.1N 110.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 21.5N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 21.6N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 21.7N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 072053
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025

...IVO INTENSIFYING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 105.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should continue to
monitor the progress of Ivo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 105.8 West. Ivo is
moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). On the forecast
track, Ivo is expected to start moving away from the coast of Mexico
over the next day or so. The storm is forecast to turn more westward
by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast for the next day or so, and Ivo could
become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de
Ocampo and Colima through Friday. This would result in an elevated
risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ivo please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?ripCurrnets


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 072052
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 105.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 45SE 60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 105.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 108.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 5SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 112.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.7N 115.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 105.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 103.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 103.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.5N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.8N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.5N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.7N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.8N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.0N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.5N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 104.5W.
07AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1188 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072200Z, 080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 071458
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
900 AM CST THU AUG 07 2025

FINDING THE EXACT CENTER OF IVO IS TRICKY THIS MORNING, BUT MY BEST
GUESS IS THAT ITS TRACK HAS DEVIATED RIGHTWARD SINCE THE PRIOR
ADVISORY. A PAIR OF HELPFUL MICROWAVE PASSES, AN AMSR2 PASS AT 0850
UTC AND A SSMIS PASS AT 1050 UTC, SHOWED WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDING
ON THE 37-GHZ TO 91-GHZ CHANNELS RESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY, A
VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION OF 1-MIN GOES-19 IMAGERY SHOWS BURSTING
CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES BY
TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0/45 KT AND T2.5/35 KT RESPECTIVELY, WITH THE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 34 TO 51 KT. THUS, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT THIS MORNING.

IVO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING A BRISK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION,
ESTIMATED AT 300/21 KT. THIS RAPID FORWARD MOTION IS THANKS IN PART
TO A STRONG AND LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ALONG WITH IVO THOUGH IT DOES GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT IN
MAGNITUDE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP IVO ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING, WITH THE CYCLONE TURNING MORE
WESTWARD AND SLOWING DOWN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, LARGELY A
REFLECTION OF THE FARTHER NORTH INITIAL POSITION. THE LATEST NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH ROUGHLY BLENDING THE SIMPLE AND
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS (TVCE AND HCCA), BUT STILL REMAINS OFFSHORE
OF MEXICO, MAKING ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH IN THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS.

THE SMALL CORE OF IVO LIKELY COULD MAKE IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID
CHANGES IN INTENSITY, EITHER UP OR DOWN. BECAUSE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW (10-15 KT), AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE 27 C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, MAKING IVO A
HURRICANE. THEREAFTER, THE STORM WILL REACH A SHARP SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, AND SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST IVO WILL LIKELY LOSE ITS REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SUB 24 C WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
MARKING ITS TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 96 H. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BIT ON THE HIGH END OF THE OVERALL
MODEL SUITE.

GIVEN THE SMALL RADIUS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
IVO, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO MEXICO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN AND
ROUGH SURF ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OUTER BANDS OF IVO ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN DE OCAMPO AND COLIMA THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.8N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.5N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 20.8N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 21.5N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 21.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 22.5N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 071455
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
900 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025

...TINY IVO CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 104.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should continue to
monitor the progress of Ivo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Ivo is
moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 24 mph (39 km/h). The
system is forecast to move generally parallel to, but offshore of,
the coast of Mexico during the next day or so and turn westward away
from Mexico thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to be
near hurricane strength by the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de
Ocampo and Colima through Friday. This would result in an elevated
risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ivo please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?ripCurrnets


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 071448
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 106.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 111.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 114.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.5N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 102.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 102.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.3N 105.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.9N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.0N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.6N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.7N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.9N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.3N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.7N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 103.3W.
07AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1321 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070844
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
300 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025

...IVO RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN
COASTLINE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 103.0W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Ivo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.0 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). The system
is forecast to move generally parallel to, but offshore of, the
coast of Mexico during the next day or so and turn westward away
from Mexico thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to be near hurricane
strength by the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de
Ocampo and Colima through Friday. This would result in an elevated
risk for flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nine-E, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrnets


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 070844
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
300 AM CST THU AUG 07 2025

IVO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THAT OF A STORM THAT IS STEADILY
INTENSIFYING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY FORMING WHILE
THE CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST HAS BEEN EXPANDING THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0412 UTC REVEALED A
DUBIOUS, AT BEST, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DATA SUGGESTS THAT
EVEN THOUGH THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION APPEARS ROBUST, THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW HAS YET TO REFLECT SUCH ORGANIZATION, LIKELY DUE TO IVO'S RAPID
FORWARD MOTION. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA.

THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/20 KT. IVO IS RACING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVING PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. AROUND 36 H, IVO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW
DOWN. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.

IVO IS STILL FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THEN NEXT DAY OR
SO. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY CONDITIONS FOR
THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. IVO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER COOLER WATERS BY 72 H, WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
INCREASING SHEAR WILL SEPARATE THE CYCLONE FROM DEEP CONVECTION AND
IVO IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 96 H. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IVO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO, HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND
ROUGH SURF ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OUTER BANDS OF IVO ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN DE OCAMPO AND COLIMA THROUGH FRIDAY. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 15.9N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.3N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 20.7N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 20.9N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 21.3N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 12/0600Z 21.7N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 070843
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.0W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.0W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.3N 105.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.7N 115.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.9N 116.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 21.3N 119.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 103.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 100.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 100.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.3N 103.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.2N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.7N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.4N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.8N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.0N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.4N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.0N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 101.2W.
07AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1432 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070239
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
900 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025

...IVO BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 100.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Ivo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 100.9 West. Ivo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). The system
is forecast to move generally parallel to, but offshore of, the
coast of Mexico during the next day or two and move away from
Mexico thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to be near hurricane
strength by the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan and
southwestern Oaxaca through Saturday. This rainfall could lead to
flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ivo, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrnets


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 070240
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.3N 103.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.2N 107.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.7N 109.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.4N 112.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 115.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 21.4N 118.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 070240
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
900 PM CST WED AUG 06 2025

IVO'S CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BUT THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL DEFINED. VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEG C OR COLDER ARE EVIDENT, PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER THE SYSTEM, BUT OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 35 KT FOR NOW, IN AGREEMENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND MOST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS.

BLENDING CENTER FIXES FROM SAB AND TAFB GIVE A SWIFT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF AROUND 295/19 KT, AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS A STRONG 500 MB HIGH SITUATED TO THE
NORTH OF IVO, WHICH IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. BEYOND 24-36 HOURS, IVO SHOULD TURN A BIT
TO THE LEFT WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, IVO SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, FAIRLY WARM WATERS AND HIGH LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND THE
SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE THIS WEEK. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRAVERSING COOLER
WATERS WHICH IS LIKELY TO REDUCE THE CYCLONE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IVO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO, HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND
ROUGH SURF ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.3N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.2N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.7N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.4N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 20.8N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 21.0N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 21.4N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 98.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 98.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.4N 101.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.2N 105.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.9N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.0N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.7N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.0N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.5N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.5N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 99.4W.
06AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1534 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 062054
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
300 PM CST WED AUG 06 2025

ONE-MINUTE GOES-E VISIBLE IMAGERY, MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE
SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURES, AND THE MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FINAL-T OF 2.0. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED PEAK WINDS BETWEEN
30-35 KT, SO ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM IVO,
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

IVO HAS A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION, BUT IT'S EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE
THAT WIND SHEAR COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR IVO'S INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE TROPICAL STORM IS IN AN
OTHERWISE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS IVO REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THERE IS ABOUT 30 KT OF
SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

IVO IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 KT. A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD STEER
IVO PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND, CAUSING IVO TO MOVE
AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED, BUT BY THEN IVO WILL REACH COOLER SSTS
AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN AND TURN WESTWARD, STEERED PRIMARILY BY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, VERY CLOSE TO HCCA THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD.

THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IVO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO, HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND
ROUGH SURF ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.2N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.4N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.2N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 20.7N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 062053
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025
300 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025

...TROPICAL STORM IVO FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ROUGH SURF WILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 99.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 99.1 West. Ivo is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). The tropical storm
is forecast to move generally parallel, but offshore of the coast
of Mexico during the couple of days, and then turn westward, moving
further from land.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated for the next couple of days. Ivo is
forecast to be near hurricane strength by the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan and
southwestern Oaxaca through Saturday. This rainfall could lead to
flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nine-E, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrnets

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 062053
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 99.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 99.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 101.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.2N 105.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.7N 113.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 99.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=