Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ERIN-25
in Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Virgin Islands British, United States, Bahamas, Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bermuda, Anguilla, Virgin Islands U.S., Iceland, Ireland, United Kingdom, Faroe Islands

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 222032
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Fri Aug 22 2025

Erin has now become a powerful extratropical low. While there is
still deep convection near the center, scatterometer data clearly
shows that Erin has become frontal. Thus, extratropical transition
has been completed, and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial
intensity remains 80 kt based on the multiple earlier scatterometer
winds near 70 kt, with very large gale- and storm-force wind-radii
noted.

While the general track and intensity forecast is about the same as
before, one specific marine hazard to highlight is the consistent
development of a strong sting jet in the southern semicircle of Erin
by Sunday, as well as a very large hurricane-force wind field.
Model guidance now suggest that a maximum of 80-90 kt is possible,
and the NHC intensity forecast is raised to 85 kt then. No other
noteworthy changes were made to the previous forecast.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Some coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide along
portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through
tonight, making some roads impassable. Large waves along the coast
could also cause significant beach erosion and overwash.

3. Gale-force wind gusts are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia
today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 40.0N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 23/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 23/1800Z 44.0N 45.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/0600Z 48.0N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1800Z 52.0N 27.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0600Z 55.0N 23.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1800Z 58.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1800Z 59.0N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1800Z 57.0N 17.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 222030
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Fri Aug 22 2025

...ERIN BECOMES POST-TROPICAL, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...SWIMMING AT MANY U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
DANGEROUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 59.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin
was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 59.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 33
mph (54 km/h). This general motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected later today, followed by a turn back to the
northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin
will pass south of Atlantic Canada today and tonight, and then race
across the north Atlantic waters.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is likely to remain a large and powerful
hurricane-force low pressure system through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435
miles (705 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Gale-force wind gusts are possible along portions of the
coast of Nova Scotia today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland
on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is expected at times of high
tide along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts
through tonight, making some roads impassable. See updates from
your local National Weather Service office for details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 222030
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 59.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 110SE 110SW 100NW.
50 KT.......180NE 190SE 170SW 150NW.
34 KT.......380NE 330SE 270SW 280NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 480SE 780SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 59.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 61.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.
50 KT...180NE 190SE 170SW 150NW.
34 KT...360NE 350SE 300SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.0N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
50 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 120NW.
34 KT...400NE 360SE 320SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 48.0N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 120SE 150SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 190SE 180SW 100NW.
34 KT...370NE 420SE 400SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 52.0N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 120SE 150SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 220SE 200SW 120NW.
34 KT...350NE 400SE 380SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 55.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...350NE 440SE 450SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 58.0N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...330NE 420SE 550SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 59.0N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 300SE 480SW 210NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 57.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 200SE 330SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 59.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 221439
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 22 2025

Erin is now well into its extratropical transition. While there is
some convection that has recently reformed near the center, all of
its other convection has shifted on the left side, with noticeable
frontal features in the northeastern quadrant. Additionally, the
stratus and stratocumulus clouds off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast
continue to suggest that cold air advection is occuring in the
hurricane's wake. The initial intensity is kept at 80 kt pending
receipt of the full late-morning scatterometer data, though the
partial pass suggested Erin had grown even larger.

The hurricane is moving faster to the east-northeast, now estimated
at 24 kt. Model guidance is rapidly accelerating Erin in that
direction over the weekend, reaching a peak speed of up to 40 kt
Sunday. The powerful extratropical low should slow down and could
undergo a loop over the far North Atlantic early next week as it
becomes a large occluded low. The new forecast is a bit faster and
south of the previous one, based on the latest corrected consensus
guidance from HCCA and Google Deep Mind.

Current trends and model fields indicate that Erin should complete
extratropical transition by tonight, with perhaps a slight weakening
of the winds on Saturday. However, Erin is forecast to become an
even larger and stronger system late Saturday into Sunday due to
phasing with a mid-latitude trough, inducing baroclinic
reintensification and even the development of a sting jet on the
back side. While they disagree on the exact timing, the global
models are all showing a 75-90 kt sting jet on Sunday. The new NHC
forecast is raised during the extratropical phase for Sunday, and
still could be too low if the latest ECMWF solution is correct. A
steady weakening is likely to occur early next week as Erin occludes
and loses its upper support south of Iceland.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide along portions
of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through tonight,
making some roads impassable. Large waves along the coast could
also cause significant beach erosion and overwash.

3. Gale-force wind gusts are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia
today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 38.8N 63.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 40.4N 58.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 23/1200Z 42.3N 51.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/0000Z 45.5N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1200Z 49.6N 32.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0000Z 52.9N 25.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1200Z 55.9N 22.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1200Z 58.1N 21.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1200Z 56.5N 18.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 221438
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 63.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
50 KT.......180NE 190SE 180SW 150NW.
34 KT.......380NE 350SE 270SW 280NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 420SE 660SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 63.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 64.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 58.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 150NW.
34 KT...360NE 350SE 290SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.3N 51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 80SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT...400NE 360SE 320SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 45.5N 41.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 80SE 100SW 70NW.
50 KT...120NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.
34 KT...370NE 360SE 360SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 49.6N 32.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 220SE 180SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 400SE 380SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 52.9N 25.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 220SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...320NE 400SE 450SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 55.9N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 170SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 380SE 550SW 340NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 58.1N 21.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 280SE 500SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 56.5N 18.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 280SE 500SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 63.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 221438
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 22 2025

...ERIN STILL A VERY LARGE HURRICANE...
...SWIMMING AT MANY U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
DANGEROUS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 63.1W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 63.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). This general motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a
turn back to the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin will pass south of Atlantic Canada today and tonight,
and then race across the north Atlantic waters.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is likely to become post-tropical by tonight but remain
a powerful hurricane-force low pressure system through the weekend.

Erin is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles (220 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 435 miles (705 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Gale-force wind gusts are possible along portions of the
coast of Nova Scotia today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland
on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide
along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts
through tonight, making some roads impassable. See updates from
your local National Weather Service office for details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220843
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Fri Aug 22 2025

...ERIN IN THE FIRST STAGES OF POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION...
...SWIMMING AT MANY U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
DANGEROUS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 65.3W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local forecasts issued by Environment Canada.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 65.3 West. Erin is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later
today, followed by a turn back to the northeast on Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin will pass south of Atlantic
Canada today and tonight, and then race across the north Atlantic
waters.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is likely to become post-tropical by tonight but remain
a powerful hurricane-force low pressure system through the weekend.

Erin remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 370 miles (595 km).
A wind gust to 56 mph (90 km/h) was recently reported at the L. F.
Wade International Airport on Bermuda.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible in extreme
southeastern Massachusetts during the next couple of hours. Gusts
to gale force are possible along portions of the coast of Nova
Scotia today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide
along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts
through tonight, making some roads impassable. See updates from
your local National Weather Service office for details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220843
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Fri Aug 22 2025

Erin has begun extratropical transition. The center is now exposed
to the southwest of the remaining central deep convection due to
30-35 kt of southwesterly shear. In addition, the hurricane has
developed an expansive cirrus shield to the north, and stratus and
stratocumulus clouds off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast suggest that
cold air advection is occuring in the hurricane's wake. Based on
the degradation of the satellite presentation since the previous
full advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt. The wind
field continues to grow, and tropical-storm-force winds now extend
as far as 320 n mi from the center.

The hurricane has been moving northeastward, or 055/19 kt. Erin
will accelerate toward the east-northeast, embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies, reaching a peak speed of about 35 kt in 48
hours. A significant reduction in forward speed is then expected
on days 3 through 5 as the cyclone becomes cut off from the
westerlies, stalling or meandering just south of Iceland by the
middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of
the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA models, and no significant changes were
made from the previous forecast.

Global model thermal fields, model-simulated satellite imagery, and
phase-space diagrams indicate that Erin should become post-tropical
by 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a blend
of the GFS and ECMWF surface wind fields, showing only some
weakening during the next 36-48 hours. Global models are in good
agreement that the post-tropical cyclone will phase with an
upper-level trough in 48-60 hours, inducing baroclinic
reintensification and possibly the development of a sting jet on
the back side of the low. The NHC official forecast shows that
strengthening at 60 hours. Steady weakening, and even more
broadening of the wind field, should occur on days 3 through 5 as
the low becomes vertically stacked south of Iceland.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide along portions
of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through tonight,
making some roads impassable. Large waves along the coast could
also cause significant beach erosion and overwash.

3. Gusts to gale force are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia
today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 38.6N 65.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 39.9N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 41.8N 55.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/1800Z 44.1N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0600Z 47.4N 38.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/1800Z 50.8N 30.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0600Z 53.9N 24.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0600Z 58.0N 20.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0600Z 58.2N 20.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220841
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 65.3W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......140NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT.......280NE 320SE 270SW 280NW.
4 M SEAS....410NE 480SE 510SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 65.3W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 66.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.9N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
34 KT...320NE 330SE 280SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.8N 55.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 200SE 160SW 150NW.
34 KT...310NE 350SE 310SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.1N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT... 80NE 200SE 170SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 350SE 340SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 47.4N 38.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 60NW.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 200SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 380SE 380SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 50.8N 30.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
50 KT... 0NE 210SE 200SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 430SE 400SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 53.9N 24.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 170SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 380SE 500SW 340NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 58.0N 20.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...220NE 360SE 500SW 280NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 58.2N 20.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 210SE 440SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220541
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 AM AST Fri Aug 22 2025

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA AND
NANTUCKET...
...SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
DANGEROUS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 66.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 66.6 West. Erin is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A faster northeastward
to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the
western Atlantic between New England and Bermuda through this
morning, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada today and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, but Erin is still expected to be producing hurricane-force
winds when it becomes post-tropical on Saturday.

Erin remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 370 miles (595 km).
A wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) was recently reported at the L. F.
Wade International Airport on Bermuda, and a gust to 47 mph (76
km/h) was measured at the airport on Nantucket, Massachusetts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for a few
more hours. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely through
this morning along the southern New England coast. Gusts to gale
force are possible along portions of the coast of Nova Scotia today
and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the U.S.
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts, but will gradually
recede through today. See updates from your local National Weather
Service office for details.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220233
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025

Erin has changed little in organization during the past several
hours. An area of convection seen near the center in conventional
satellite imagery is associated with a fragment of an inner eyewall
seen in microwave imagery, and outer convective bands continue in
association with the outer wind maximum seen in scatterometer data.
Satellite intensity estimates are in the 75-85 kt range and have
not changed much since the last advisory, and based on this the
initial intensity remains 85 kt. Erin continues to have a very
large area of tropical-storm force winds, and comparing Erin with
other systems around the same intensity and in similar locations
over the past couple of decades indicates that it is around the
90th percentile in size. The cyclone also continues to produce a
very large area of high seas covering nearly the entire western
Atlantic from the Bahamas to Atlantic Canada.

The hurricane is now moving east-northeastward or 065/19 kt. A
faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected within the
mid-latitude westerlies over the next 2-3 days, taking Erin out to
sea over the north Atlantic. Some decrease in forward speed is
expected by 120 h. The track models are tightly clustered, and the
new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous
track.

Erin is moving into an area of increasing shear and toward cooler
sea surface temperatures, and the cyclone is expected to merge with
a front and become extratropical in about 36 h. However, global
models forecast that the cyclone will only gradually weaken as it
moves across the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast and is based mainly on a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF surface winds forecasts.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding should subside on the North Carolina Outer
Banks tonight. While this happens, the storm surge will continue to
be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion
and overwash, making some roads impassible.

3. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of
the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts through early
Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through early
Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the coast of Nova
Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 37.3N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 40.7N 58.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 43.0N 51.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0000Z 46.1N 42.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/1200Z 49.3N 34.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0000Z 52.1N 28.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0000Z 56.6N 21.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0000Z 57.5N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025

...ERIN PASSING BETWEEN NEW ENGLAND AND BERMUDA...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 67.0W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina,
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 67.0 West. Erin is moving toward
the east-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A faster northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the
western Atlantic between New England and Bermuda through early
Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Erin is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Erin remains a very large system. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm
force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km). During the
past few hours, wind gusts to tropical-storm force have been
reported on Bermuda and on Nantucket Island, Massachusetts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
early Friday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely through
early Friday along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast.
Gusts to gale force are possible along portions of the coast of Nova
Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the U.S.
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts, but will gradually
recede through Friday. See updates from your local National Weather
Service office for details.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220232
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 67.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......140NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT.......200NE 320SE 270SW 280NW.
4 M SEAS....450NE 480SE 540SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 67.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...260NE 320SE 270SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 320SE 270SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.0N 51.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 320SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 46.1N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 49.3N 34.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 52.1N 28.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 140SE 180SW 80NW.
34 KT...290NE 420SE 410SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 56.6N 21.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 150SE 140SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 420SW 300NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 57.5N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 340SE 360SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 67.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212331
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025

...ERIN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 68.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from Duck, North Carolina to
Chincoteague, Virginia has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 68.2 West. Erin is moving toward
the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda through
early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days. Erin is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Erin is a very large system. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km). During the past
couple of hours, stations on Bermuda have reported wind gusts of
tropical-storm force in squalls.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
early Friday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely through
early Friday along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast.
Gusts to gale force are possible along portions of the coast of Nova
Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212331
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025

...ERIN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 68.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from Duck, North Carolina to
Chincoteague, Virginia has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 68.2 West. Erin is moving toward
the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda through
early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days. Erin is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Erin is a very large system. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km). During the past
couple of hours, stations on Bermuda have reported wind gusts of
tropical-storm force in squalls.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
early Friday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely through
early Friday along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast.
Gusts to gale force are possible along portions of the coast of Nova
Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 212032
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025

Erin is gradually pulling away from the U.S., but coastal flooding
and tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the North
Carolina and Virginia coastline. A pair of ASCAT passes from a few
hours ago confirmed Erin's large size with its associated
tropical-storm-force winds extending nearly 500 n mi across. In
fact, comparing Erin with other systems around the same intensity
and in similar locations over the past couple of decades indicates
that it is around the 90th percentile in size. Overall, the
structure of the system has changed little since the aircraft
departed earlier today, and based on that data and the satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 85 kt. Erin is
producing very rough seas, and the associated swells are covering
nearly the entire western Atlantic from the Bahamas to Atlantic
Canada.

Erin has turned northeastward, and it is currently moving at 050/17
kt. A faster motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected
within the mid-latitude westerlies over the next few days, taking
Erin out to sea over the north Atlantic. The models are in good
agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC
forecast.

The environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly
hostile around Erin, as southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely
to steadily increase while humidity values and sea surface
temperatures decrease. This should result in weakening, but Erin
will likely only slowly lose strength due to its large size. Erin
is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream in a couple
of days, and that should help lead to its extratropical transition.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and
follows HCCA and IVCN in the short term, but leans toward the global
model guidance during the predicted extratropical phase.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding will continue on the North Carolina Outer
Banks through tonight. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making
some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours
along portions of the northeast North Carolina and Virginia coast.
Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the
remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts
today through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda this
evening through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible
along the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 36.4N 69.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 38.0N 66.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 40.0N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 41.8N 55.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 44.7N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0600Z 47.9N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 50.9N 31.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 55.8N 22.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z 56.9N 20.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025

...LARGE HURRICANE ERIN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 69.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Duck, North Carolina, has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 69.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda through
early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days. Erin is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Erin is a very large system. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of
the North Carolina and Virginia coastline for the next few hours.
Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast,
wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely through early Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda late this
afternoon through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible
along portions of the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 212031
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 69.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......140NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT.......200NE 280SE 200SW 200NW.
4 M SEAS....480NE 420SE 420SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 69.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 70.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.0N 66.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.
34 KT...260NE 280SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.0N 61.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 280SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.8N 55.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 280SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.7N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 47.9N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 50.9N 31.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 140SE 180SW 80NW.
34 KT...290NE 420SE 410SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 55.8N 22.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 150SE 140SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 420SW 300NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 56.9N 20.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 340SE 360SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 69.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211732
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 70.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 70.5 West. Erin is moving toward
the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A faster northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda through
early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days. Erin is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Erin is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of
the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline for the
next few hours. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely through
early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda
late this afternoon through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are
possible along portions of the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and
the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 211444
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Erin remains a sprawling hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force
winds extending nearly 500 n mi across. In fact, comparing Erin with
systems around the same intensity and in similar locations over the
past couple of decades indicates that it is around the 90th
percentile in size. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that
the peak winds have come down a bit, and based on their data, the
initial intensity is set at 85 kt. Although the core of Erin is
pulling away from the United States, coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds continue along portions of the North
Carolina and Virginia coasts. The center of Erin passed just east of
NOAA buoy 41001 earlier this morning, and it reported a minimum
pressure of 962 mb and a maximum significant wave height of 45 ft.
The associated swells are covering nearly the entire western
Atlantic from the Bahamas to Atlantic Canada.

Erin is moving north-northeastward at 16 kt. A turn to the northeast
or east-northeast with a significant increase in forward speed
within the mid-latitude westerlies is expected to begin tonight,
taking Erin out to sea over the north Atlantic during the next
several days. The models are in good agreement, and only minor
changes were made to the previous NHC forecast.

Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air,
and cooler SSTs should cause Erin to gradually lose strength over
the next several days. Extratropical transition is now expected to
be complete by early Saturday, when the system is forecast to
develop fronts after it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream.
The NHC intensity forecast follows HCCA and IVCN in the short term,
but leans toward the global model guidance during the predicted
extratropical phase.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions will continue
on the North Carolina Outer Banks today. The storm surge will be
accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and
overwash, making some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along the Virginia
coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts today through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda this afternoon
through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the
coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 35.4N 70.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 37.0N 68.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 39.1N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 41.0N 59.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 43.2N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0000Z 46.2N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z 49.4N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1200Z 54.5N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1200Z 56.9N 21.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 211442
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 70.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......220NE 280SE 200SW 200NW.
4 M SEAS....480NE 420SE 420SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 70.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.0N 68.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 320SE 230SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.1N 64.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 250SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.0N 59.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...330NE 350SE 260SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.2N 51.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 190SE 160SW 130NW.
34 KT...330NE 350SE 270SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 46.2N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 70NW.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 170SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 350SE 320SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 49.4N 35.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 140SE 180SW 80NW.
34 KT...290NE 420SE 410SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 54.5N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 160SE 140SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 380SE 450SW 350NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 56.9N 21.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 340SE 360SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 70.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211443
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...ERIN PULLING AWAY BUT COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 70.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 70.9 West. Erin is moving toward
the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A faster northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda through
early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days. Erin is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Erin is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km). A WeatherFlow station
at Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a
sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of
the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline for the
next several hours. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern
New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely
today through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
on Bermuda this afternoon through early Friday. Gusts to gale force
are possible along portions of the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday
and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 71.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 71.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later
today, followed by an acceleration toward the east-northeast Friday
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will
move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and
Bermuda through early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic
Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days. Erin is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km). NOAA buoy 41001, located
175 miles (280 km) east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, recently
measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph
(93 km/h). The minimum pressure at the buoy has also dropped to
963 mb (28.45 inches). A WeatherFlow station at Jennette's Pier in
Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 45
mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of
the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline for the
next several hours. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern
New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely
today through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
on Bermuda this afternoon through early Friday. Gusts to gale force
are possible along portions of the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday
and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210846
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Erin's satellite presentation currently shows the low-level center
embedded beneath a 90 n mi-wide Central Dense Overcast. Outer
convective bands extend a couple of hundred miles away from the
center, but there has recently been some erosion of the clouds
within the southwestern part of the circulation, which likely
signals an increase in shear. On the last transect through the
storm, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters measured 700-mb
flight-level winds of 100 kt, and found that the central pressure
had risen to 945 mb. The current intensity is estimated to be 90
kt, although it should be noted that some of the satellite intensity
estimates are lower.

Erin has made its closest approach to the North Carolina coast and
is now moving north-northeastward (020 degrees) at 15 kt. There is
no change in the forecast reasoning of the future track. Erin
should continue to accelerate and turn east-northeastward by Friday
as it becomes increasingly embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is a bit faster than the
previous prediction, showing Erin racing across the north Atlantic
with a peak forward speed of about 35 kt in 72 hours.

The prospects for strengthening appear to be coming to a close,
particularly with the atmosphere becoming more stable and shear
increasing during the next 12-24 hours. Only slow weakening is
forecast during the next 36 hours, but steady weakening is likely
after that time. Erin's transition to a post-tropical cyclone has
been moved up to 60 hours in the official forecast, but some of the
latest guidance indicate it could happen as soon as 36-48 hours
from now. The global models, including the GFS and ECMWF, are also
trending toward keeping the post-tropical cyclone big and strong
while it moves across the north Atlantic, and the NHC wind radii and
intensity forecasts have been adjusted upward accordingly.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions will continue
on the North Carolina Outer Banks today. The storm surge will be
accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and
overwash, making some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along the Virginia
coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts today through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda this afternoon
through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the
coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 34.2N 72.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 35.8N 70.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 37.8N 66.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 39.6N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 41.4N 56.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 43.6N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0600Z 46.7N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0600Z 53.0N 26.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0600Z 56.8N 21.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210845
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 72.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......220NE 280SE 200SW 200NW.
4 M SEAS....480NE 420SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 72.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.8N 70.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 320SE 230SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.8N 66.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 250SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.6N 62.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...330NE 350SE 260SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.4N 56.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 190SE 160SW 130NW.
34 KT...330NE 350SE 270SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 43.6N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 70NW.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 170SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 350SE 320SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 46.7N 40.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 140SE 180SW 80NW.
34 KT...290NE 420SE 410SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 53.0N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 160SE 140SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 380SE 450SW 350NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 56.8N 21.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 340SE 480SW 280NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 72.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210846
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...ERIN JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 72.1W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 72.1 West. Erin is moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later
today, followed by a acceleration toward the east-northeast Friday
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will
move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and
Bermuda through early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic
Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days. Erin is expected to become post-tropical by Saturday.

Erin is a large and growing hurricane. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km).
NOAA buoy 41001, located 175 miles (280 km) east of Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 69 mph (111
km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at
Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a
sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and will spread northward along the
Virginia coastline during the next few hours. Elsewhere along the
mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical
storm force are likely today through early Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Bermuda this afternoon through early
Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along portions of the
coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210534
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS AS ERIN TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 72.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 72.7 West. Erin is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected later today and
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over
the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today
through early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday
and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next several days,
and Erin is likely to become post-tropical by Saturday.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km). A sustained wind of 40
mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported
at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 945 mb
(27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and will spread northward along the
Virginia coastline later this morning. Elsewhere along the
mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical
storm force are likely today through early Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Bermuda later today through early
Friday. Gale conditions are possible along portions of the coast of
Nova Scotia beginning early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring up to 1 inch of rainfall
to the Outer Banks of North Carolina today.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210246
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate little change in Erin during the past
several hours. The aircraft reported a central pressure near 942
mb, and the wind data showed two concentric wind maxima - a weaker
one about 15 n mi from the center and a stronger one 60-70 n mi
from the center. The maximum 700-mb flight-level winds in the outer
wind band are near 105 kt. Based on the lack of change since
earlier, the initial intensity remains 95 kt, which is near the
average of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates.

The initial motion is now 010/14 kt. The steering scenario and
track forecast reasoning are again unchanged from the previous
advisory. Erin should move around the western and northwestern
periphery of the subtropical ridge during the next 12-24 h, passing
between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast. After that, the system
should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north
Atlantic. The track guidance has changed little, and the new track
forecast is an update of the previous forecast.

A little strengthening could occur during the next 12 h or so,
although the concentric wind maxima structure argues against
significant strengthening. After 12 h, Erin should encounter
increasing westerly shear and move over colder sea surface
temperatures, which should result in steady weakening. The system
is also expected to merge with a frontal system to become an
extratropical low, and while this is currently forecast to occur
by 72 h it could happen earlier. Erin should continue to weaken
after extratropical transition as it moves east-northeastward
across the north Atlantic.

Erin is an unusually large hurricane. For hurricanes north of 30N
latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th
percentile of the Atlantic basin record.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday. The storm surge
will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach
erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the coast of Nova
Scotia on Friday and Newfoundland on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 32.8N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 34.8N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 36.8N 69.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 38.7N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 42.2N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 44.5N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0000Z 50.0N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0000Z 54.3N 21.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210246
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 73.1W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 230SE 180SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....480NE 390SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 73.1W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.8N 71.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.8N 69.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 220SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.7N 65.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...160NE 150SE 140SW 130NW.
34 KT...280NE 250SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 250SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.2N 54.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT...290NE 300SE 260SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 44.5N 46.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 280SE 250SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 50.0N 31.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 220SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 54.3N 21.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 220SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 73.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210246
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT OR NEAR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin and refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment
Canada.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 73.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast and east-northeast on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda tonight and early
Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight
and Thursday morning, and Erin could become a major hurricane again
during that time. Weakening is likely to begin Thursday night or
Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). During the past few
hours, NOAA buoy 41025, located just southeast of Cape Hatteras,
has reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust
of 45 mph (72 km/h). A private weather station in Frisco, North
Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and
a wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter is
942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning
in the next few hours. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and
southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are
likely Thursday through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda Thursday and Friday. Gale conditions are
possible along portions of the coast of Nova Scotia beginning
Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring up to 1 inch of rainfall
to the Outer Banks of North Carolina tonight into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202351
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE ERIN BRUSHING THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 73.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 73.2 West. Erin is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda tonight and early
Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next
day or so, and Erin could become a major hurricane again tonight.
Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to
remain a hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). During the past few
hours, NOAA buoy 41002, located west of the center, has reported
sustained winds of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph
(115 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning
in the next several hours. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and
southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are
likely Thursday through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda Thursday and Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring up to 1 inch of rainfall
to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 202137 CCA
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 38...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Corrected usually to unusually in fourth paragraph

Erin continues to look impressive on satellite imagery, with a
fairly symmetric cloud pattern and numerous convective banding
features. Upper-level outflow remains well-defined over most parts
of the circulation. An AMSR microwave image from just before 18Z
showed a concentric eyewall structure with an outer ring of
convection at a radius of 70-80 n mi from the center and an inner
eyewall at a radius of about 20 n mi. The current intensity
estimate is held at 95 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAB and SAB and objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is moving northward with a forward speed of
around 12 kt. The steering scenario and track forecast
reasoning have not changed from the previous advisory. Erin
should move around the western and northwestern periphery of
a mid-level subtropical anticyclone over the next day or so,
moving between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast. After that, the
system should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north
Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the previous NHC
prediction and is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected
consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Although Erin is over warm waters with ample mid- to low-level
moisture, The concentric convective ring structure of the system
will likely prevent significant strengthening and the official
intensity forecast now only shows a slight-short term increase in
intensity, similar to the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Beginning in
about 36 hours, the SHIPS model diagnoses a large increase in
vertical wind shear so a weakening trend is anticipated from that
time onward. The predicted structure of the cyclone in the global
models indicates that extratropical transition should be underway
in 3-4 days, while Erin passes over much cooler waters.

Erin is an unusually large hurricane. For hurricanes north of 30N
latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th
percentile of the Atlantic basin record.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today and lasting
through Thursday. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making
some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 33.2N 72.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 35.5N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 37.5N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 39.2N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 43.1N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 49.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z 54.0N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 202043
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Erin continues to look impressive on satellite imagery, with a
fairly symmetric cloud pattern and numerous convective banding
features. Upper-level outflow remains well-defined over most parts
of the circulation. An AMSR microwave image from just before 18Z
showed a concentric eyewall structure with an outer ring of
convection at a radius of 70-80 n mi from the center and an inner
eyewall at a radius of about 20 n mi. The current intensity
estimate is held at 95 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAB and SAB and objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is moving northward with a forward speed of
around 12 kt. The steering scenario and track forecast
reasoning have not changed from the previous advisory. Erin
should move around the western and northwestern periphery of
a mid-level subtropical anticyclone over the next day or so,
moving between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast. After that, the
system should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north
Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the previous NHC
prediction and is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected
consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Although Erin is over warm waters with ample mid- to low-level
moisture, The concentric convective ring structure of the system
will likely prevent significant strengthening and the official
intensity forecast now only shows a slight-short term increase in
intensity, similar to the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Beginning in
about 36 hours, the SHIPS model diagnoses a large increase in
vertical wind shear so a weakening trend is anticipated from that
time onward. The predicted structure of the cyclone in the global
models indicates that extratropical transition should be underway
in 3-4 days, while Erin passes over much cooler waters.

Erin is an usually large hurricane. For hurricanes north of 30N
latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th
percentile of the Atlantic basin record.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today and lasting
through Thursday. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making
some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 33.2N 72.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 35.5N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 37.5N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 39.2N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 43.1N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 49.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z 54.0N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 202037
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025

Erin continues to look impressive on satellite imagery, with a
fairly symmetric cloud pattern and numerous convective banding
features. Upper-level outflow remains well-defined over most parts
of the circulation. An AMSR microwave image from just before 18Z
showed a concentric eyewall structure with an outer ring of
convection at a radius of 70-80 n mi from the center and an inner
eyewall at a radius of about 20 n mi. The current intensity
estimate is held at 95 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAB and SAB and objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is moving northward with a forward speed of
around 12 kt. The steering scenario and track forecast
reasoning have not changed from the previous advisory. Erin
should move around the western and northwestern periphery of
a mid-level subtropical anticyclone over the next day or so,
moving between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast. After that, the
system should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north
Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the previous NHC
prediction and is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected
consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Although Erin is over warm waters with ample mid- to low-level
moisture, The concentric convective ring structure of the system
will likely prevent significant strengthening and the official
intensity forecast now only shows a slight-short term increase in
intensity, similar to the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Beginning in
about 36 hours, the SHIPS model diagnoses a large increase in
vertical wind shear so a weakening trend is anticipated from that
time onward. The predicted structure of the cyclone in the global
models indicates that extratropical transition should be underway
in 3-4 days, while Erin passes over much cooler waters.

Erin is an usually large hurricane. For hurricanes north of 30N
latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th
percentile of the Atlantic basin record.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today and lasting
through Thursday. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making
some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 33.2N 72.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 35.5N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 37.5N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 39.2N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 43.1N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 49.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z 54.0N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE ERIN NEARING THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 73.6W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 73.6 West. Erin is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today through
early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day
or so, and Erin could become a major hurricane again by tonight.
Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to
remain a hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). During the past few hours,
NOAA buoy 41002, located west-northwest of the center, has reported
sustained winds of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 67 mph
(108 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning
late today. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely
Thursday through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda Thursday and Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring up to 1 inch of rainfall
to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 202035
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.6W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 230SE 180SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....450NE 420SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.6W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 73.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.2N 72.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.5N 70.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 240SE 220SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.5N 67.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...160NE 150SE 140SW 130NW.
34 KT...280NE 240SE 240SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.2N 63.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...170NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 80SE 110SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 300SE 260SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 43.1N 50.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 340SE 270SW 260NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 49.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 340SW 260NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 54.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...280NE 360SE 360SW 260NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 73.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SOON IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS..
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 73.6W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 73.6 West. Erin is moving toward
the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today through
early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
and Erin could become a major hurricane again by tonight. Weakening
is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a
hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning
late today. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely
Thursday through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda Thursday and Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 201514 CCA
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 37...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Corrected eye dropsonde wind to 19 kt and minimum pressure to 941 mb

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level
winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center. Using a reduction
factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall
winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory. A dropsonde
in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 19 kt winds
so the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 941 mb.
The hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this
morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding
features. The eye has again become evident on the imagery and
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants.

Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of
350/11 kt. There has been no significant change in the track
forecast guidance since the last advisory package. Over the
next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western
periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it
rounds the northwestern side of the high. Then, the system should
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within
the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies. The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement
with the various dynamical model consensus predictions.

Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to
be reforming. The system is over warm waters and within a moist
low- to mid-level air mass. Although the vertical wind shear is
currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in
shear in 12-24 hours. Therefore the hurricane has the potential to
strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner
core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly
shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening
trend is likely to commence later on Thursday. Simulated satellite
imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an
extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The
storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 30.1N 73.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 201457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level
winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center. Using a reduction
factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall
winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory. A dropsonde
in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 9 kt winds so
the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 942 mb. The
hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this
morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding
features. The eye has again become evident on the imagery and
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants.

Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of
350/11 kt. There has been no significant change in the track
forecast guidance since the last advisory package. Over the
next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western
periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it
rounds the northwestern side of the high. Then, the system should
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within
the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies. The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement
with the various dynamical model consensus predictions.

Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to
be reforming. The system is over warm waters and within a moist
low- to mid-level air mass. Although the vertical wind shear is
currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in
shear in 12-24 hours. Therefore the hurricane has the potential to
strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner
core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly
shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening
trend is likely to commence later on Thursday. Simulated satellite
imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an
extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The
storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 30.1N 73.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 201453
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 73.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......220NE 230SE 130SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....420NE 420SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 73.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 73.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 240SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 230SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 280SE 240SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 100SE 110SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 330SE 260SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 90SE 100SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 340SE 270SW 260NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 340SW 260NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 210SW 120NW.
34 KT...280NE 380SE 420SW 360NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 73.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...LARGE ERIN STRENGTHENS WHILE HEADED NORTH...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 73.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 73.7 West. Erin is moving toward
the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today through early
Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely during
the next day or so, and Erin could become a major hurricane again
by tonight. Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is
forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning
late today. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely
Thursday through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda Thursday and Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE ERIN EXPECTED TO BRING
WORSENING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY
THIS EVENING...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 73.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague,
Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast, the southern New
England coast, and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 29.6 North,
longitude 73.7 West. Erin is moving toward the north-northwest near
13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast is
expected today and tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today through early
Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.
Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to
remain a hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late today or tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast of
Virginia on Thursday and on Bermuda Thursday and Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200852
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The last center fix of an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission found that Erin's central pressure had dropped by a
few millibars to 954 mb. Although satellite intensity estimates
have increased slightly over the past 6 hours, there is no firm
evidence to indicate that the pressure drop has translated into
stronger maximum winds, which are being held at 85 kt. A
recent AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that the hurricane has
an small inner eyewall extending about 15 n mi from the center with
a pronounced outer ring of convection extending 70-90 n mi from the
center. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate
Erin in a few hours and should be able to help ascertain if the
winds have increased.

Erin is moving north-northwestward, or 345/11 kt, but it is likely
to turn northward very soon. The track guidance is in very good
agreement during Erin's expected recurvature over the western
Atlantic between the east coast of the U.S. and Bermuda, and no
significant changes were made to the first 24-36 hours of the
forecast. After 36 hours, there has been a notable increase in
forward speed among the models when Erin becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. These changes are most evident at days 4 and 5, with
the new day 5 position about 600 n mi northeast of the previous day
5 forecast point.

Warm waters, relatively light shear, and upper-level divergence
could support some intensification over the next 36 hours or so.
However, it is unclear if Erin's broad structure will support much
increase of the maximum winds, despite the global models showing the
central pressure falling further into the 940s mb. The NHC
intensity forecast is closest to the HCCA consensus aid, showing
some slight strengthening through Thursday. A substantial increase
in shear is likely to induce weakening by 48 hours, and Erin is
expected to become post-tropical by day 4.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today or tonight.
The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Thursday
along the southeastern coast of Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.

4. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts, and Atlantic Canada, should also monitor the
progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday through
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 28.9N 73.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 30.6N 73.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 35.4N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 37.4N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 39.3N 63.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 45.8N 43.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0600Z 51.1N 30.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200851
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA BY THIS EVENING...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Duck, North
Carolina, to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague,
Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast, the southern New
England coast, and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 73.3 West. Erin is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the north and north-northeast is expected today and tonight,
followed by a faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast
by Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin
will move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and
Bermuda today through early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic
Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.
Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to
remain a hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane and growing. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late today or tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast of
Virginia on Thursday and on Bermuda Thursday and Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200850
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 73.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......220NE 230SE 130SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....450NE 330SE 210SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 73.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 73.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.6N 73.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 240SE 190SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.4N 70.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 290SE 210SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.4N 67.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...280NE 310SE 240SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.3N 63.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 110SE 110SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 330SE 260SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 90SE 100SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 340SE 270SW 260NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 45.8N 43.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 340SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 51.1N 30.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 210SW 120NW.
34 KT...280NE 380SE 450SW 360NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 73.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200544
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 73.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast, the southern New
England coast, and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 73.2 West. Erin is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected today, followed by a northeastward motion on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over
the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today
through early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected through Thursday night.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight
indicate that the minimum central pressure has fallen to 954 mb
(28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the Bahamas this
morning. Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer Banks of North
Carolina tonight into Thursday, with the potential for 1 to 2
inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late today or tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area north of
Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light beginning Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda beginning
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200316
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35...RESENT
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 73.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....450NE 330SE 180SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 73.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 72.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.3N 73.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.6N 73.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.8N 72.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 35.9N 69.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 37.7N 66.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...280NE 280SE 230SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.3N 62.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 250SW 260NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 42.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...140NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...280NE 320SE 270SW 260NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 44.8N 42.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 73.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200234
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Erin has become a little better organized during the past several
hours. Conventional satellite imagery shows persistent strong
convection near and to the north of the center, while microwave
overpasses and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the eyewall is trying to re-form. However,
these changes have not yet resulted in a tighter inner core wind
field, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt were
measured about 100 n mi from the center. Based on this, the
flight-level winds closer to the center, and satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous
85 kt.

The initial motion is now 340/10. The hurricane remains situated in
a weakness or break in the subtropical ridge, and it is expected to
turn northward along the western side of the ridge on Wednesday.
After that, Erin should turn northeastward with some acceleration
as it moves into the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies
over the north Atlantic. There are no significant changes to the
forecast track through 72 h, and this part of the track lies near
the center of the tightly-packed track guidance. After 72 h, the
there is more spread, and the consensus models have shifted a
little northward. In response, this portion of the track has been
shifted to the north.

For the next 36 h, Erin will be in an environment of light to
moderate vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Much of
the intensity guidance suggests the hurricane should strengthen
during this time, if the spread-out wind field can become more
concentrated near the re-formed eyewall. On the basis of this
happening, the new intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening
during the first 36 h. However, an alternative scenario is that the
central pressure falls considerably without a lot of increase in
the winds as the hurricane grows larger. After 36 h, increasing
shear and the start of extratropical transition should cause
weakening, and Erin is now forecast to become an extratropical low
by 96 h.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are
in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves,
leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
southeastern coast of Virginia, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect, on Thursday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible Thursday and Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 27.7N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 29.3N 73.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 31.6N 73.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 33.8N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 35.9N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 37.7N 66.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 39.3N 62.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 42.5N 53.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z 44.8N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200233
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...ERIN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 73.0W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast, the southern New
England coast, and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 73.0 West. Erin is moving toward
the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected for the rest of tonight
followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a
northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas tonight, and
then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and
Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erin is getting better
organized, and slow strengthening is expected through Thursday
night.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the Bahamas tonight.
Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer Banks of North Carolina
Wednesday night into Thursday, with the potential for 1 to 2 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light beginning
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda
beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192357
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ERIN...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 72.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast and the southern
New England coast should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 72.7 West. Erin is moving toward
the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by
a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to
the east of the Bahamas tonight, and then move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
couple of days.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the Turk and Caicos
and the Bahamas late this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is
possible on the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into
Thursday with the potential for 1 to 2 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light
beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 192039
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

After becoming somewhat disrupted earlier today, Erin's cloud
pattern has become better organized with increasing coverage and
intensity of central convection. The upper-tropospheric outflow is
becoming better defined over the northern portion of the
circulation, indicating some decrease in vertical wind shear. The
advisory intensity remains at 90 kt which is about the maximum
of the various satellite-based subjective and objective estimates.
Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for a few
hours from now to provide a good estimate of Erin's intensity.

Based on center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite
images, Erin turned to a north-northwestward heading a few hours
ago and the initial motion estimate is now around 330/9 kt. The
system is situated in a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and
should turn northward along the western side of a mid-level high
centered southeast of Bermuda Wednesday. Erin should turn toward
the northeast as it rounds the northwestern side of the high, and
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward in the southern
part of the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic.
Little changes were made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory, and the official forecast remains close to the model
consensus.

Since the shear over Erin appears to have lessened, and the system
will continue to traverse warm waters for the next couple of days,
some re-strengthening could occur. The future intensity is
dependent on whether the inner-core eyewall structure becomes
re-established. The official forecast conservatively shows a
slight increase in intensity similar to the model consensus but the
LGEM guidance shows a little more strengthening than that. Later
in the forecast period, Erin should gradually weaken over the
cooler waters of the north Atlantic and lose its tropical
characteristics in 4-5 days.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are
in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves,
leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect.

4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible Thursday and Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 26.6N 72.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 30.3N 73.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 34.9N 71.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 36.8N 68.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 38.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 43.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 72.7W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch is extended northward along the U.S.
Atlantic coast north of Cape Charles Light, Virginia to
Chincoteague, Virginia.

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast and the southern
New England coast should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Erin is moving toward
the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by
a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to
the east of the Bahamas tonight, and then move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
couple of days.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the Turk and Caicos
and the Bahamas late this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is
possible on the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into
Thursday with the potential for 1 to 2 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light
beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 192037
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 72.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....420NE 300SE 180SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 72.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 72.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.3N 73.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 34.9N 71.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.8N 68.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...280NE 280SE 230SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N 64.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...320NE 300SE 250SW 260NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...140NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...340NE 320SE 250SW 260NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 72.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...LARGE HURRICANE ERIN NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 72.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and for the Southeast
Bahamas, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the
Central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Bermuda, the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast, and the southern
New England coast should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 72.5 West. Erin is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by
a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to
the east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few
days.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos today and through
tonight for the Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches,
with storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead
to flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible on the
Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with
potential for 1 to 2 inches and a local maximum of 4 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light
beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 191457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Erin's cloud pattern continues to be disrupted by vertical wind
shear, with the low-level center situated near the northwestern edge
of the main area of deep convection. There are still well-defined
convective banding features over the eastern semicircle of the
system. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has risen compared to earlier
this morning. The advisory intensity is set to 90 kt, comparable to
a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. However, wind
observations from the Hurricane Hunters suggest that this intensity
estimate may be on the high side.

The hurricane is moving a little faster to the northwest with an
initial motion estimate of 325/8 kt. Erin is expected to turn
northward around the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone
centered southeast of Bermuda. Later in the period, the system
should turn to the northeast with some increase in forward speed as
it moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. There are no
significant adjustments to the previous NHC forecast track and the
official forecast lies very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus, TVCA.

Predicting Erin's intensity is somewhat problematic. Given the
current disorganization of the cloud pattern, one would be reluctant
to call for restrengthening. However,the dynamical guidance shows
increasingly anticyclonic upper-level flow over the system and the
SHIPS model diagnoses a significant decrease in vertical wind shear.
Therefore, the official forecast shows a bit of restrengthening in
the next 36 hours. This is somewhat above the model consensus but
below the latest statistical/dynamical LGEM guidance.

The global models continue to show an increase in the size of the
hurricane, with the tropical-storm-force wind radii crossing the
North Carolina Outer Banks within the next couple of days.
Accordingly, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge warnings have been
issued for this area.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are
now in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves,
leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.

3. Heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Erin will continue today
for the Turks and Caicos and through tonight for the Bahamas. Flash
and urban flooding are possible.

4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts and on Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as
strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 25.6N 72.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 27.0N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 29.1N 73.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 31.4N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 33.7N 72.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 35.6N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 37.3N 66.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 40.3N 58.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 191453
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 72.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....420NE 330SE 180SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 72.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.0N 73.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.1N 73.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.4N 73.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 190SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.7N 72.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 270SE 210SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 35.6N 70.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...260NE 300SE 230SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 37.3N 66.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...300NE 320SE 250SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 40.3N 58.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...140NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...340NE 320SE 250SW 260NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 72.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191453
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 72.4W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the North Carolina Outer
Banks from Cape Lookout to Duck.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina
Outer Banks from Beaufort Inlet to Duck.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Duck to Cape Charles
Light Virginia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and the U.S
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast should monitor the
progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 72.4 West. Erin is moving toward
the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today,
followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward
motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will
pass to the east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move
over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few
days.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos today and through
tonight for the Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches,
with storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead
to flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible on the
Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with
potential for 1 to 2 inches and a local maximum of 4 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light
beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191156
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...ERIN EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN LARGER WHILE MOVING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 72.2W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and the U.S
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast should monitor the
progress of Erin. Additional tropical storm watches and warnings
may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 72.2 West. Erin is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a
northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas today and
tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S.
east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few
days.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos today and through
tonight for the Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with
storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead to
flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer
Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with potential
for 1 to 2 inches and a local maximum of 4 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190856
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear has caused Erin's structure
to become more asymmetric, with dry air infiltrating into the
northwestern part of the circulation, and a long trailing convective
band still draped to the south over the Turks and Caicos Islands.
An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission made a final
pass through the center of Erin around 1230 am and measured
flight-level winds of 97 kt, with a central pressure up to 953 mb.
Combining this information with the latest satellite estimates,
Erin's intensity is set at 100 kt, which could be a bit generous.

Erin has been moving slowly northwestward since yesterday, with an
initial motion estimated to be 325/6 kt. There is not much change
to the track forecast reasoning, with the hurricane still expected
to recurve over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and
Bermuda over the next 3-4 days. The main highlight of the new
forecast is that much of the track guidance, including the consensus
aids, have shifted slightly west of the previous NHC prediction
during the first 2-3 days. The new NHC forecast is very close to
the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids during the first 48 hours, and then
closer to the TVCA aid beyond 48 hours. It should be noted that
there is still some space for additional adjustments to the track
forecast, particularly beyond 48 hours with the HCCA aid lying along
the northwestern edge of the guidance envelope.

There are mixed signals on Erin's future intensity. On one hand,
more favorable environmental shear and upper-level divergence in
24-36 hours should support some re-intensification. On the other
hand, Erin's slow motion and large size could lead to some upwelling
of cooler water, and the hurricane's broad structure could limit
significant strengthening. The official forecast only shows
fluctuations in intensity for the next 3 days, although it's
becoming more likely that Erin could just weaken very gradually
during that time. Erin is forecast to maintain hurricane strength
for the next 5 days, but it is likely to begin interacting with a
frontal boundary by Friday and become extratropical by late
Saturday.

The more important part of the forecast is that model guidance has
continued to show Erin growing in size, and the wind radii have been
made larger in the new NHC forecast. This new forecast now brings
tropical-storm-force winds very close to the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England coast later this week. Erin's expanding wind
field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western
Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is
because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday
night where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect.
Interests in along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts and on Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as
strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday.

3. Heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Erin will continue today
for the Turks and Caicos and through tonight for the Bahamas. Flash
and urban flooding are possible.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas for a few more hours. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 24.8N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 26.1N 72.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 30.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 34.6N 71.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 36.5N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 39.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 42.0N 53.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190856
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...ERIN FORECAST TO SUBSTANTIALLY GROW IN SIZE WHILE MOVING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 72.0W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and the U.S
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast should monitor the
progress of Erin. Additional tropical storm watches and warnings
may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 72.0 West. Erin is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a
northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas today and
tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S.
east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are possible over
the next few days.

Erin is a large hurricane and will continue to grow in size.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos today and through
tonight for the Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with
storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead to
flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer
Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with potential
for 1 to 2 inches and a local maximum of 4 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190855
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 72.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....450NE 330SE 210SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 72.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 71.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.1N 72.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.3N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 270SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 34.6N 71.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.
34 KT...260NE 300SE 220SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.5N 68.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
50 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...300NE 320SE 250SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 39.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...140NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...340NE 320SE 260SW 260NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 42.0N 53.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 260SE 240SW 230NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 72.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190534
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...ERIN SLOWING DOWN WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 71.8W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and other parts
of the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the
progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 71.8 West. Erin is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north is
forecast later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the core of
Erin is expected to move away from the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands this morning and move east of the remainder
of the Bahamas later today. The hurricane is then expected to move
between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the
middle of the week.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to an estimated 120 mph
(195 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are
expected during the next couple of days. However, Erin is likely to
remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km). A wind gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently
reported at Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 953 mb
(28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across
portions of the southeastern Bahamas into Wednesday. Additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with storm total amounts to 8 inches, is
possible, which could lead to flash flooding and urban flood
concerns. Portions of Hispaniola, the central Bahamas, and the
Turks and Caicos should receive an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain
as well.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190234
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin has weakened some since the last advisory. Multiple microwave
overpasses show that the convection has eroded on the northwestern
side and that the mid-level center is displaced to the southeast
of the low-level center by northwesterly shear. Reports from NOAA
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the
central pressure has risen to near 949 mb, and that flight-level
winds at 8000 and 10000 ft are in the 105-115 kt range. The
initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt for this advisory, and this
could be a bit generous. It should be noted that the wind field
has become very spread out, with flight-level winds of hurricane
force noted by the two aircraft more than 100 n mi from the center.

Erin has slowed its forward speed with the initial motion now 320/7
kt. The overall track reasoning remains unchanged, with Erin
expected to turn northward during the next day or two into a break
in the subtropical ridge, followed by recurvature into the
westerlies with some acceleration thereafter. However, there is
some spread in the track guidance in both direction and speed. The
UKMET and ECMWF are slower and on the left side of the guidance
envelope, while the GFS and Canadian are on the right side of the
guidance and faster. The new forecast track is similar in direction
to the previous track, but it is going to be slower than the
previous track in deference to the ECMWF/UKMET and the consensus
models.

The dynamical model guidance suggests that the current shear should
diminish in 18-24 h, and as that happens the upper-level winds
become divergent over the hurricane. However, due to the current
poor organization, it is unclear whether Erin will be able to take
advantage of the more favorable environment. The intensity forecast
first calls for some additional weakening due to the ongoing
shear. After that, it calls for modest re-intensification as the
upper-level winds become more favorable. Once Erin has recurved
into the westerlies, there should be substantial weakening due to
another round of shear and the onset of extratropical transition.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin
is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used
to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected into Wednesday for portions of the
southeastern Bahamas. Flash and urban flooding are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas for a few more hours. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas
tonight through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

4. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where
Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible beginning on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 24.4N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 25.4N 72.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 27.1N 73.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 29.2N 73.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 31.4N 73.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 35.4N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 38.5N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 41.1N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190233
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 71.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....420NE 360SE 180SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 71.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 71.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.4N 72.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.2N 73.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.4N 73.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 35.4N 70.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 280SE 220SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 38.5N 62.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 240SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 41.1N 54.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 280SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 71.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190233
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 71.7W
ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and other parts
of the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the
progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 71.7 West. Erin is moving toward
the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue tonight. A turn to the north is forecast on Tuesday or
Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected
to move away from the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands tonight and move east of the remainder of the Bahamas on
Tuesday. The hurricane is then expected to move between Bermuda
and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the week.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205
km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are
expected during the next couple of days. However, Erin is likely to
remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across
portions of the southeastern Bahamas into Wednesday. Additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with storm total amounts to 8 inches, are
possible, which could lead to flash flooding and urban flood
concerns. Portions of Hispaniola, the central Bahamas, and the
Turks and Caicos should receive an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain
as well.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas tonight through Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning
late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...CENTER OF ERIN PASSING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 71.5W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Bermuda should monitor
the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 71.5 West. Erin is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north is
forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is
expected to pass to the east of the southeastern and central
Bahamas today and tonight, and move between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States by the middle of the week.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (210 km/h)
with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Erin is likely to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 947 mb (27.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola this evening and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos, the southeast Bahamas, and the
easternmost central Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches,
with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected through this evening
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas tonight through Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning
late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 182045
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin's cloud pattern has become somewhat less organized than
earlier today, likely as a result of some dry air intrusion over
the northwestern portion of the circulation and increased northerly
shear. An AMSR microwave image from the GCOM satellite showed the
dry air intrusion which is consistent with the presence of arc
clouds emanating northwestward from the system. The northerly
shear has also begun to restrict the outflow to the north of Erin.
The intensity is held at 120 kt for now, pending observations from
another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few hours. This
intensity estimate is also consistent with a blend of objective
values from UW-CIMSS.

After a west-northwestward wobble earlier today, the hurricane has
resumed its northwest course with a motion estimate of 310/9 kt.
The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged. Over
the next 72 hours or so, Erin should turn northward and move
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and on the western
side of a mid-level anticyclone. Later in the forecast period, an
approaching mid-level trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

The model guidance and low-level water vapor imagery suggests that
the dry air incursion into Erin is probably temporary. However,
given the degraded cloud pattern and the less conducive shear over
the system, not much additional strengthening is likely. In any
event since the system will remain over warm waters for at least
the next 72 hours, Erin will likely retain major hurricane status
through the middle of the week. The official intensity forecast is
at the high end of the model guidance.

Erin's continued expanding wind field will result in rough ocean
conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted
that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in
the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk
of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field
of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind
field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected over portions of Hispaniola
this evening, and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos, the
southeast Bahamas, and the easternmost central Bahamas. Flash and
urban flooding are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas through this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas
tonight through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

4. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where
Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible beginning on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 24.0N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 24.9N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 26.5N 72.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 28.4N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 30.5N 73.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 32.7N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 34.8N 71.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 38.0N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182044
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 71.3W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck,
North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck,
North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Bermuda should monitor
the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 71.3 West. Erin is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is
expected to pass to the east of the southeastern and central
Bahamas today and tonight, and move between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States by the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major
hurricane through the middle of this week.

Erin is an unusually large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola this evening and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos, the southeast Bahamas, and the
easternmost central Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches,
with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected through this evening
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas tonight through Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning
late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina 2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 182044
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 71.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....420NE 360SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 71.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 71.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.9N 71.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 72.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.4N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.5N 73.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.7N 73.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 34.8N 71.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 280SE 220SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 38.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 240SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 71.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181749
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME EVEN LARGER OVER THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 71.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 71.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest
is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of
the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
today. Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane
through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas east from San
Salvador Island. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181540
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 280SE 240SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 320SE 300SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 70.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181531
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 280SE 240SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 320SE 300SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 70.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181530
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 280SE 240SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 320SE 300SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 70.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181551
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite
imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and
numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of
lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the
circulation. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the
central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight
level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt. Rain bands
over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause
tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas today.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward
speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't
been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled
to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track
guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.
Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S.
mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is
expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between
Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official
track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and
close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast
period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level
outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today.
The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the
system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the
environment. The official intensity forecast is near or a little
above the simple and corrected model guidance. The system is
expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this
week.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is
considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to
derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the
Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding
are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch
may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181540
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 70.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest
is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north and on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected today. Erin will remain a dangerous major hurricane
through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter observations is 935 mb (27.61
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas east from San
Salvador Island. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181540
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite
imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and
numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of
lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the
circulation. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the
central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight
level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt. Rain bands
over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause
tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas today.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward
speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't
been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled
to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track
guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.
Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S.
mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is
expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between
Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official
track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and
close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast
period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level
outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today.
The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the
system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the
environment. The official intensity forecast is near or a little
above the simple and corrected model guidance. The system is
expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this
week.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is
considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to
derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the
Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding
are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch
may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181530
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 70.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest
is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north and on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected today. Erin will remain a dangerous major hurricane
through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter observations is 935 mb (27.61
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas east from San
Salvador Island. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181531
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 70.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest
is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north and on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected today. Erin will remain a dangerous major hurricane
through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter observations is 935 mb (27.61
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas east from San
Salvador Island. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181530
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite
imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and
numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of
lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the
circulation. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the
central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight
level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt. Rain bands
over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause
tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas today.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward
speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't
been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled
to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track
guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.
Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S.
mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is
expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between
Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official
track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and
close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast
period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level
outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today.
The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the
system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the
environment. The official intensity forecast is near or a little
above the simple and corrected model guidance. The system is
expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this
week.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is
considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to
derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the
Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding
are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch
may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181531
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite
imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and
numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of
lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the
circulation. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the
central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight
level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt. Rain bands
over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause
tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas today.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward
speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't
been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled
to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track
guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.
Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S.
mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is
expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between
Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official
track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and
close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast
period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level
outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today.
The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the
system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the
environment. The official intensity forecast is near or a little
above the simple and corrected model guidance. The system is
expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this
week.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is
considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to
derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the
Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding
are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch
may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181521
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 280SE 240SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 320SE 300SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 70.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181521
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 70.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest
is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north and on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected today. Erin will remain a dangerous major hurricane
through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter observations is 935 mb (27.61
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas east from San
Salvador Island. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181521
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite
imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and
numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of
lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the
circulation. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the
central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight
level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt. Rain bands
over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause
tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas today.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward
speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't
been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled
to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track
guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.
Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S.
mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is
expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between
Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official
track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and
close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast
period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level
outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today.
The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the
system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the
environment. The official intensity forecast is near or a little
above the simple and corrected model guidance. The system is
expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this
week.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is
considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to
derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the
Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding
are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch
may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181520
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 280SE 240SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 320SE 300SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 70.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181520
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 70.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest
is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north and on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected today. Erin will remain a dangerous major hurricane
through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter observations is 935 mb (27.61
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas east from San
Salvador Island. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181520
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite
imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and
numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of
lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the
circulation. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the
central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight
level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt. Rain bands
over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause
tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas today.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward
speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't
been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled
to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track
guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.
Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S.
mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is
expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between
Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official
track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and
close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast
period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level
outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today.
The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the
system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the
environment. The official intensity forecast is near or a little
above the simple and corrected model guidance. The system is
expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this
week.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is
considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to
derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the
Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding
are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch
may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite
imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and
numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of
lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the
circulation. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the
central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight
level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt. Rain bands
over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause
tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas today.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward
speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't
been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled
to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track
guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.
Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S.
mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is
expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between
Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official
track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and
close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast
period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level
outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today.
The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the
system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the
environment. The official intensity forecast is near or a little
above the simple and corrected model guidance. The system is
expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this
week.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is
considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to
derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the
Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding
are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch
may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181447
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 280SE 240SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 320SE 300SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 70.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181447
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 70.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest
is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north and on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected today. Erin will remain a dangerous major hurricane
through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter observations is 935 mb (27.61
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas east from San
Salvador Island. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 70.5 West. Erin is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn to the
north is expected later today and on Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the
southeastern Bahamas today and move between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States by the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected
today. Erin will remain a dangerous major hurricane through the
middle of this week.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and portions of the southeast
and central Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180836
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin is growing in size, as predicted. Data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters and ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed that
the hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 70 n
mi and 200 n mi from the eye, respectively. The eye of the hurricane
has also grown and is now about 30 n mi in diameter, and there is
some evidence of mesovorticies within it. There is also some
indication that Erin again has concentric eyewalls as the Hurricane
Hunters reported a double wind maximum in their last pass. The
initial intensity remains 115 kt based on a combination of the
earlier aircraft data and current satellite estimates. Erin's outer
rainbands are affecting the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and those locations will likely continue to
experience tropical storm conditions for several more hours.

The hurricane has wobbled to the left over the past 6 hours, but a
longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at 11 kt. Erin is
still forecast to gradually turn northward later today and Tuesday
as it moves into a weakness within the subtropical ridge. This
motion should take the core of the hurricane roughly midway between
Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.
After that time, an approaching trough should cause Erin to
accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic. The NHC track
forecast has been nudged to the left of the previous one to be
closer to the various consensus models.

Deep convection has been increasing in intensity and symmetry, and
it seems likely that Erin will strengthen today. The intensification
is likely to end by tonight due to some increase in shear and a
broadening of the inner core wind field. Slow weakening seems likely
beginning Tuesday, but it should be emphasized that Erin is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through the week. The NHC intensity
forecast is above the models in the short term, but falls near the
middle of the guidance after that.

Based on an evaluation of storm sizes of major hurricanes over the
past couple of decades in the subtropics, Erin is around the 80th
percentile. Erin's wind field is expected to keep growing over the
next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean
conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted
that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in
the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk
of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field
of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind
field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and
portions of the southeast and central Bahamas. Flash and urban
flooding are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong
winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of
the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 22.8N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 23.6N 71.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 25.0N 72.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 26.6N 72.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 28.6N 73.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 30.7N 73.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 32.9N 72.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 37.2N 66.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 41.6N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180835
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 70.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erin is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn to the north is
expected later today and on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the southeastern
Bahamas today and move between Bermuda and the east coast of the
United States by the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected
today. Even though some weakening is forecast beginning tonight,
Erin will remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the
middle of this week.

Erin is a large system. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and portions of the southeast
and central Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180835
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 70.2W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 70.2W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 69.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 71.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N 72.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N 72.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.6N 73.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.7N 73.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.9N 72.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 200SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 37.2N 66.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 280SE 230SW 230NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 41.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 70.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180534
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 AM AST Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 69.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina
Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 69.9 West. Erin is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to the north is
expected later today and on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the southeastern
Bahamas today and move between Bermuda and the east coast of the
United States by the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected
today. Even though some weakening is forecast beginning tonight,
Erin will remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the
middle of this week.

Erin is increasing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force reconnaissance
dropsonde data is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico.
Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are expected across Puerto Rico
today. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally
higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast over the Turks and Caicos
and the eastern Bahamas including San Salvador Island through
Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180255
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

Erin appears to have successfully completed its eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) that began yesterday. A F-16 SSMIS pass at 2314 UTC
showed just a single eyewall with Erin that also appears to be
contracting. Thus, Erin appears to be re-intensifying but now with a
larger 20 n mi radius of maximum winds. Satellite intensity
estimates, both subjective and objective, are starting to increase
again. Notably, we received a T6.0/115 kt subjective Dvorak
intensity value at 00 UTC. The DMINT value associated with that
earlier SSMIS pass was 113 kt, and given the improvement of Erin's
structure on GOES-19 satellite imagery since that time period, the
initial intensity is being increased to 115 kt this advisory, making
Erin a Category 4 hurricane again. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance mission will soon be in the core of Erin to
provide updated in-situ observations of the hurricane.

It looks like Erin is beginning to turn northwestward, with the
initial motion now estimated to be 305/10 kt. The mid-level ridge
that has been steering Erin over the last few days is beginning to
split, with one ridge remaining parked over the Ohio Valley in the
United States, but another ridge becoming positioned more eastward
of Erin. This pattern will allow a weakness to form north of Erin,
enabling the large hurricane to turn northward and then
northeastward roughly between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and
Bermuda. The track guidance this cycle have not made very many
adjustments, and thus the latest NHC forecast track looks quite
similar to the prior advisory, just a little slower over the next
48 hours. This track lies roughly in between the Google Deep Mind
ensemble mean (GDMI) and HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).

Now that Erin has completed its ERC, there is a short-term window
where additional intensification could occur while the hurricane
remains over warm waters near 29C and light to moderate
northwesterly shear. There are a couple of complications that make
the intensity forecast tricky beyond this time period. First,
vertical wind shear is expected to increase over Erin soon. If Erin
also then undergoes another ERC, sometime in the 24-48 h time
period, this could hasten a weakening trend, like HAFS-A/B models
have been suggesting. Second, as Erin grows in size, its footprint
of cool upwelling will also grow, and could potentially encroach on
its inner core. Several AOML/CIMAS gliders have been near the
inner core of Erin over the past 24 hours, and their in-situ
observations indicate that Erin has already cooled the waters in its
vicinity up to 1C over the past day. This rate of ocean cooling near
Erin is likely to continue increasing as the storm grows in size and
slows over the next 48-60 h. Thus, the intensity forecast shows
gradual weakening beginning after a short round of intensification,
which is a little lower than the previous NHC intensity forecast
beyond the short-term, but still not far off from the HCCA
consensus aid.

Erin's wind radii have been growing in size, and are expected to
continue expanding over the next few days. The expanding wind field
will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western
Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is
because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall will linger across portions of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through tonight, but are expected to
diminish by Monday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas tonight and Monday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong
winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of
the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 22.3N 69.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 23.2N 70.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 24.6N 71.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 26.1N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 28.0N 72.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 29.9N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 32.0N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 36.5N 67.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 41.4N 56.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AFTER COMPLETING
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD AS ERIN BECOMES A VERY LARGE HURRICANE THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 69.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina
Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 69.3 West. Erin is now moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to the
north-northwest and then north is expected on Monday into Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the
east and northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas overnight into Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected over
the next 12 hours followed by gradual weakening. However, Erin is
forecast to continue increasing in size and will remain a large and
dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico.
Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are expected across Puerto Rico
through Monday. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally
higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast over the Turks and Caicos
and the eastern Bahamas including San Salvador Island through
Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the southeast Bahamas overnight into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180252
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 69.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......200NE 170SE 100SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 69.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.2N 70.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.6N 71.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.1N 72.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.0N 72.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 65SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 115SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.9N 73.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 85SE 65SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 135SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 190SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 36.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 290SE 230SW 230NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 41.4N 56.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...160NE 170SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 320SE 270SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 69.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 172349
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD AS ERIN BECOMES A VERY LARGE HURRICANE THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 68.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina
Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 68.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is
expected tonight, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest and
north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of
Erin is expected to pass to the east and northeast of the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight into Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some increase in size and strength is
forecast during the next 48 hours. Erin is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin continue to produce areas of heavy
rainfall across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches
are expected across Puerto Rico through Monday. Additional rainfall
of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are
forecast over the Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas including
San Salvador Island through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the southeast Bahamas late tonight into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 172042
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 135SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.8N 69.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.4N 71.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.1N 72.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.2N 72.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 35.3N 69.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 200NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 40.3N 59.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 170SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 250SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 68.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 172037
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

Erin continues to have a well-organized cloud pattern with numerous
convective banding features and strong upper-level outflow.
Satellite data indicate numerous lightning flashes in these cloud
bands. The intensity estimate is held at 110 kt for this advisory,
which is somewhat below the Dvorak values, but close to the estimate
based on the most recent aerial reconnaissance mission. Another Air
Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate Erin in a
few hours to provide an update on the strength of the hurricane.

The system has been moving just a little to the right of the track
seen earlier today, and the initial motion estimate is 295/11 kt.
There are no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning
from the previous advisory. Erin is expected to gradually turn
northward in a couple of days while moving through a weakness in the
subtropical ridge, i.e. between two subtropical high cells. The
track guidance is basically unchanged from earlier today, so the new
official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.
This remains close to the dynamical model consensus TVCN and is is
also similar to the latest FSU Superensemble guidance.

Erin exhibited an eyewall replacement earlier today, with the eye
diameter increasing from 5-10 n mi to around 40 n mi. If the
replacement cycle completes, there should be a contraction of the
eyewall by tonight. This would likely result in another
intensification episode. The official forecast is consistent with
this expectation and is near the high side of the model guidance.
Notwithstanding, Erin should remain in conducive environmental
conditions and remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle
of this week.

Erin has been growing in size, and that trend is likely to continue
over the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in
rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should
be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36
hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating
the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast
wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to
the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through tonight, but are expected to
diminish by Monday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas tonight and Monday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong
winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of
the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 21.7N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 22.8N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 24.0N 71.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 25.4N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 27.1N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 29.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 31.2N 72.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.3N 69.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 40.3N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 172036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN WHILE GROWING IN SIZE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 68.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina
Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 68.5 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is
expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest and
north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of
Erin is expected to pass to the east and northeast of the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some increase in size and strength is
forecast during the next 48 hours. Erin is likely to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin continue to produce areas of heavy
rainfall across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches
are expected across Puerto Rico through Monday. Additional rainfall
of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are
forecast over the Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas including
San Salvador Island through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the southeast Bahamas late tonight and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171739
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 68.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the southeast Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina
Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 68.0 West. Erin is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the
northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some increase in size and strength is
forecast during the next 48 hours. Erin is likely to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall today across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to
4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are expected
across Puerto Rico through Monday, as well as the Turks and Caicos,
and the eastern Bahamas through San Salvador Island through Tuesday.
Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the southeast Bahamas late tonight and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 171558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.08.2025

HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 67.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2025 20.6N 67.0W INTENSE
00UTC 18.08.2025 22.2N 68.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.08.2025 23.3N 70.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2025 24.5N 71.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2025 25.9N 72.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2025 27.8N 73.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2025 30.1N 73.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2025 32.8N 73.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2025 34.4N 71.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2025 35.9N 68.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2025 37.8N 63.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2025 40.1N 58.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2025 43.9N 52.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2025 46.6N 46.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2025 50.3N 39.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.7N 54.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.08.2025 15.7N 54.7W WEAK
00UTC 22.08.2025 17.2N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2025 19.3N 60.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2025 20.8N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2025 22.4N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2025 25.0N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2025 27.9N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171558


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 171502
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 67.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 67.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 67.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.9N 68.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.1N 70.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.4N 71.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.9N 72.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.8N 72.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.0N 72.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 170SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 34.3N 70.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 200NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 39.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 170SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 250SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 67.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 171458
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

Erin's eye is no longer evident on satellite imagery and
observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the
maximum winds are near 110 kt. The central pressure has risen a bit
this morning. This slight decrease in intensity is probably due to
an eyewall replacement in the inner core as reported by the
Hurricane Hunters and is likely a temporary short-term fluctuation.
The system remains a well-organized and dangerous major hurricane
with a impressively symmetric cloud pattern. Upper-level outflow is
strong over all quadrants of the system.

Based on fixes from the aircraft, San Juan radar, and satellite
images, the hurricane appears to be moving west-northwestward or
around 285/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy is about the same
as in previous advisories. Over the next couple of days, Erin is
expected to turn northward and move between two cells of the
mid-tropospheric subtropical high. The track guidance is in good
agreement on the northward turn but there are differences in how
close the hurricane will come to the U.S. east coast in the 72 hour
time frame. The new official forecast has been shifted a little to
the west at 3-4 days based on the model consensus. Some additional
adjustments to the forecast are possible in future advisories.

Erin should remain over very warm waters with moderate vertical wind
shear and in a moist low-to mid-level air mass during the next 48-72
hours. Therefore, some renewed increase in strength is expected
within the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the latest corrected consensus model, HCCA, In
any event, Erin should remain a dangerous major hurricane through
the middle of this week.

Erin is growing in size, and that trend is expected to continue over
the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough
ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be
noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36
hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating
the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast
wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to
the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue into Monday across Puerto Rico, but
is expected to diminish over the Virgin Islands later today.
Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and are possible in the Southeast Bahamas tonight and
Monday. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in Erin's outer
rainbands in portions of Puerto Rico today and the central Bahamas
on Monday and Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the North Carolina Outer Banks and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk
of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the
middle part of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 21.0N 67.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 21.9N 68.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 23.1N 70.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 24.4N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 25.9N 72.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 27.8N 72.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 30.0N 72.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 34.3N 70.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 39.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171457
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERIN STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 67.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina
Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 67.4 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is
expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the north on Monday
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity are likely
over the next couple of days, but Erin is expected to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall today across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to
4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are expected
across Puerto Rico through Monday, as well as the Turks and Caicos,
and the eastern Bahamas through San Salvador Island through Tuesday.
Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across the warning
area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Southeast
Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical
storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today and across the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171150
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 67.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.7 North,
longitude 67.0 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near
14 mph (22 km/h). This motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the north on Monday
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
over the next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall today across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches,
are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along
with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across the warning
area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Southeast
Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical
storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today and across the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170846
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 66.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Southeast Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 66.4 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected today, followed by a gradual
turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over
the next day or two due to inner-core structural changes.

Erin is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall today across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches,
are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along
with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across the warning
area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Southeast
Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical
storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today and across the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170842
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

Satellite and Doppler Radar data from San Juan indicate that Erin is
going through some notable structural changes. The hurricane still
has a small eye in radar images with a tight and closed eyewall.
Beyond the small core, there are numerous convective rainbands that
are expanding in all quadrants, with some indication of an outer
eyewall beginning to take shape. Data from the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters a few hours ago indicated that the peak winds have been
decreasing, and the initial intensity is set at 110 kt using a blend
of the latest satellite estimates. The outer bands to the south of
the center are still affecting portions of the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. These bands are producing
gusty winds and locally heavy rains. The Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Erin again later this
morning, and their data will provide a better assessment of the
hurricane's intensity and structure.

Erin has been wobbling around, but it appears to be moving a little
to the south of the previous track. The hurricane is still moving
west-northwestward at 12 kt on the south side of a subtropical
ridge. This ridge is expected to break down later today due to a
series of troughs moving across the northwestern Atlantic. In
response to the pattern change, Erin should gradually turn toward
the north and eventually the northeast. This motion should take the
core of Erin to the east of the Bahamas on Monday and then roughly
midway between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. around the
middle of the week. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the
west in the short term based on the initial motion and latest model
guidance.

The quick weakening over the past 6 to 12 hours is associated with
Erin's structural changes and not environmental conditions. Since
the large-scale environment is expected to be favorable for about
another day, re-strengthening is possible during that time period.
However, it should be noted that predicting the intensity evolution
from internal dynamics are challenging, and models often provide
little reliability in their solutions. Beyond 24 to 36 hours, a
broadening of the wind field and some increase in shear should cause
a gradual decay in the peak winds. Regardless of the details, there
is high confidence that Erin will remain a powerful hurricane during
the next several days.

Erin is growing in size, and that trend is expected to continue over
the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough
ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. Given the track
adjustments and increasing size, the government of the Bahamas has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and
a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Bahamas.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico today. Locally considerable flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and are possible in the Southeast Bahamas tonight and
Monday. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in Erin's outer
rainbands in portions of Puerto Rico today and the central Bahamas
on Monday and Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk
of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the
middle part of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 20.6N 66.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 21.3N 67.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 23.8N 70.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 25.2N 71.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 28.9N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 33.3N 70.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 38.6N 63.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170841
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 66.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Southeast Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 66.4 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected today, followed by a gradual
turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over
the next day or two due to inner-core structural changes.

Erin is growing in size Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall today across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches,
are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along
with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across the warning
area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Southeast
Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical
storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today and across the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170839
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 66.4W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 180SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 66.4W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.3N 67.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.8N 70.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.2N 71.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.9N 72.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 170SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 33.3N 70.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 200NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 38.6N 63.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 170SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 250SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 66.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170833
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 66.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Southeast Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 66.4 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected today, followed by a gradual
turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over
the next day or two due to inner-core structural changes.

Erin is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall today across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches,
are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along
with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across the warning
area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Southeast
Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical
storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today and across the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170831
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 66.4W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 180SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 66.4W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.3N 68.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 69.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.8N 70.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.1N 71.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 72.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.9N 72.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 170SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 33.5N 70.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 200NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 38.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 170SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 250SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 66.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170531
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 66.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 66.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn
to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over
the next day or two due to inner-core structural changes.

Erin is becoming a larger system. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall today across the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Squalls with
wind gusts to tropical storm force could occur over portions
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across the
southeast and central Bahamas tonight through Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple
of days. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
early and middle portions of the week. These rough ocean conditions
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170259
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

After rapidly intensifying for the first part of the day, Erin now
appears to be in the middle stages of an eyewall replacement cycle
(ERC). Both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance have
indicated concentric eyewalls on their missions this evening, and in
response, the inner eyewall is starting to become more degraded with
decreasing winds. With that said, there is not an especially well
defined secondary wind maximum quite yet, primarily only observed in
the NOAA-P3 Tail Doppler Radar data in the northeastern quadrant.
The peak flight level winds reported by the NOAA and Air Force
aircraft were both 130 kt at 700 mb. The initial intensity is
therefore reduced to 120 kt for this advisory, and this could be
generous.

The inner eyewall of Erin has been wobbling around, likely due to
some trochoidal motion as it interacts with the building secondary
wind maximum, but the longer-term motion is around 290/12 kt. Erin
has moved left of the NHC forecast track over the past day, and I
suspect some of this left-of expected motion could be due to the
small inner-core size of the hurricane, which was poorly resolved by
all of the hurricane-regional forecast models. However, as the
overall wind field of Erin grows in size, a more consistent
west-northwestward motion is expected to resume tonight and persist
over the next 12-24 hours. After that time, a series of shortwave
troughs will move offshore of Atlantic Canada, helping to reinforce
a longwave trough over the north-central portion of the Atlantic.
This should create a growing weakness to the north of Erin,
ultimately allowing the large hurricane to turn northward and then
northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance
this cycle made another westward adjustment, and the NHC track
forecast was nudged in that direction. The current track remains to
the east of both the HCCA and ECMWF track aids, so it would not be
surprising to see some additional leftward adjustments in subsequent
forecast cycles.

The future intensity is probably the most challenging aspect of
Erin's forecast. Erin's maximum sustained winds have been decreasing
as a secondary eyewall gradually becomes better defined. A little
more weakening could occur in the short term as these structural
changes occur. However, none of the hurricane-regional models
appears to have a good handle on Erin's current structure (they all
have a much broader core). Given that the vertical wind shear is
currently low, and the hurricane is well embedded in a moist
environment, this ERC is expected to complete without much issue,
though it will likely take a bit of time for the hurricane's maximum
sustained winds to recover as its wind field broadens. Thus, the NHC
intensity forecast shows some reintensification in the 24 h period
after this ERC completes. Afterwards, it wouldn't be surprising to
see another cycle begin, and at 36-48 h northwesterly shear is still
anticipated to increase some. Their combination should begin a
weakening trend with Erin as it continues to grow in size. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory,
primarily due to the weaker initial intensity, but is still roughly
in line with the intensity consensus aids.

A recent scatterometer pass indicates that Erin's outer-core is
growing in size, and the models remain in strong agreement that the
system will grow further the next several days. In fact, by the
middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple
in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the
western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos
Islands during the next 48 h, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are
likely in portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through
Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the
Southeast Bahamas beginning late Sunday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high
surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 20.3N 65.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 20.8N 66.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 22.0N 68.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 23.3N 69.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 24.5N 70.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 26.0N 71.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 28.0N 72.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 37.5N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170258
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...ERIN STILL A FORMIDABLE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNDERGOING
STRUCTURAL CHANGES...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURING OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 65.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of France has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36-48 hours
in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 65.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion is expected to
continue through Sunday with a decrease in forward speed. A turn
more northward is expected to occur on Monday into Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to begin moving away
from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and pass to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
Sunday night and Monday.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data
indicates that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140
mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity
are expected over the next day or two due to inner-core structural
changes with Erin.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by Air Force reserve
dropsonde data is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning late Sunday. Squalls with
wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may
also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170257
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 65.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 110SE 40SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 65.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.8N 66.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 105SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.3N 69.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.5N 70.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.0N 72.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 190SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 37.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...140NE 170SE 145SW 110NW.
34 KT...260NE 290SE 255SW 225NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 65.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 162348
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT ERIN IS
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 150 MI...235 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours in the Leeward Islands and in the next 48 hours in the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the southeastern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located near
latitude 20.0 North, longitude 64.6 West. Erin is moving toward the
west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn towards the west-northwest is
expected later tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn
towards the north is expected to occur early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday, and pass to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
Sunday night and Monday.

Recent data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near
150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days
due to inner-core structural changes.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated by hurricane hunter
dropsonde data is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Leeward Islands through tonight, and in the watch area
in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning on Sunday. Squalls with
wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may
also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 162127
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...RESENT
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 40SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 63.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 65.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.4N 67.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.7N 69.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 70.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.5N 70.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.3N 71.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 31.7N 70.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 180SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 36.8N 65.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 200NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 64.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 162127
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 22...Resent
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 5 ERIN CONTINUING TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* Turks and Caicos Islands


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
12 hours in the Leeward Islands and in the next 48 hours in the
Turks and Caicos Islands.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the southeastern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 64.0 West. Erin is moving toward
the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue this evening. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected
tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn toward the
north is expected to occur early next week. On the forecast track,
the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday
and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected
tonight through Sunday night. A slow weakening is expected to begin
on Monday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to
investigate Erin this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 915 mb (27.02 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the watch area in the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning on Sunday. Squalls with wind
gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of
the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may
also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 162043
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

Erin's rapid intensification may have bottomed out near 16Z based on
the last couple of passes of data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter. At that time, the maximum winds were near 140 kt
and the central pressure was near 915 mb. Both Air Force and NOAA
aircraft reported concentric eyewalls forming, and during the last
couple of hours the small eye seen in conventional satellite imagery
is becoming cloud-filled. This suggests an eyewall replacement cycle
may be starting. The initial intensity is held at 140 kt pending the
upcoming arrival of a NOAA Hurricane Hunter.

The eye has started to gain latitude during the past few hours and
the initial motion is now 280/13 kt - a little slower than before.
The track guidance still suggests that Erin will turn back to the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed during the next
6-12 h on the south side of a subtropical ridge. This motion should
then continue through 24-36 h. After 36 h, the western side of
the ridge is still expected to weaken, due to a series of shortwave
troughs moving through the mid-latitude westerlies, and that should
cause Erin to slow further and make a gradual turn to the north.
However, there remains a significant spread in the guidance in just
when this turn will occur, and the spread has increased due to the
12Z ECMWF forecast shifting to the west. Overall, the guidance
envelope has shifted to the left during the entire forecast track,
and the new forecast track is also shifted to the west. The new
track is still to the east of the consensus models during the
northward motion, and additional track adjustments may be necessary
in later forecasts.

Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 24 hours due
to possible eyewall replacement cycles. However, Erin should remain
a strong hurricane during this time. Between 24-72 h, increasing
northwesterly shear should cause a gradual weakening, although there
are likely to be fluctuations superimposed on this. After 72 h, the
storm should start to encounter the mid-latitude westerlies where
the shear will increase further. The new intensity forecast will
show an increased weakening rate, but will keep Erin as a major
hurricane as it will still be over warm sea surface temperatures
during that time.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in
strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next
several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast
to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough
ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos
Islands during the next 48 h, where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in
effect. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are
likely in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight
and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through
Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the
Southeast Bahamas beginning on Sunday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high
surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 20.0N 64.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 20.4N 65.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 21.4N 67.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 22.7N 69.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 24.0N 70.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 25.5N 70.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 27.3N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 31.7N 70.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 36.8N 65.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 161731
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 5 ERIN PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 63.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 63.3 West. Erin is moving toward
the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue this afternoon. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn
toward the north is expected to occur early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico through Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h)
with higher gusts. Erin is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible
this afternoon. Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the
rest of the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 915 mb (27.02 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to continue producing
areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area today. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may
occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward and Virgin
Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 161559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.08.2025

HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 62.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2025 19.6N 62.3W MODERATE
00UTC 17.08.2025 20.0N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2025 20.6N 67.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2025 22.2N 68.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2025 23.3N 70.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2025 24.5N 71.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2025 25.8N 72.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2025 27.3N 73.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2025 29.5N 73.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2025 31.7N 73.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.08.2025 33.9N 72.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2025 35.4N 71.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2025 36.4N 68.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2025 37.2N 66.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2025 38.2N 64.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.3N 73.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2025 34.3N 73.4W WEAK
00UTC 17.08.2025 33.8N 72.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2025 33.7N 71.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2025 33.9N 71.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2025 34.4N 70.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.6N 48.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2025 16.8N 50.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.08.2025 18.5N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2025 20.3N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2025 21.9N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2025 24.5N 61.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2025 25.3N 61.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161559


Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 161520
TCUAT5

Hurricane Erin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1120 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A
CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds
near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near
917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued
at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 161433
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

Erin has continued to rapidly strengthen during the past 6 h and is
now a category 4 hurricane. Reports from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has
fallen to 925 mb inside a 6 nm wide eye, and flight-level winds in
the northern eyewall support surface winds in the 130-135 kt range.
The initial intensity is increased to 135 kt, a 70-kt increase since
24 h ago. The aircraft, along with land-based radar data from Sint
Maarten, report that an outer eyewall is starting to form. However,
this has yet become apparent in the aircraft wind data.

The hurricane has been moving a bit to the left of the previous
forecast track with the initial motion of 280/15. The track guidance
suggests that Erin will turn back to the west-northwest with a
decrease in forward speed during the next 6-12 h on the south side
of a subtropical ridge. This motion should then continue through
the weekend, taking the core of Erin to the north of the eastern
Caribbean Islands through Sunday. After 36 h, the western side of
the ridge is expected to weaken, due to a series of shortwave
troughs moving through the mid-latitude westerlies, and that should
cause Erin to slow further and make a gradual turn to the north. The
track guidance models are in general agreement with this scenario,
but there remain some differences on where, when, and how sharply
Erin makes the northward turn. The new track forecast is shifted to
the south during the first 12-24 h based on the initial position and
motion, and it lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope.
From 24-72 h there track has been shifted westward due to an overall
shift in the guidance, and the track is similar to the previous
track at 96 and 120 h.

The development of the outer eyewall suggests that rapid
intensification should end during the next several hours. However,
Erin is expected to reach category 5 status before this occurs, and
the new intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 145 kt.
After 12 h, the environment becomes a little less favorable, with
increasing northwesterly shear and possible dry air entrainment.
This should lead to gradual weakening of the cyclone through 72 h,
although superimposed on this trend will be fluctuations due to
eyewall replacement cycles. After 72-96 h, the cyclone is expected
to move into the westerlies where the shear is stronger, and a
faster weakening trend is expected at that time. The new intensity
forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance at 12 h and
near the intensity consensus after that.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in
strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next
several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast
to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough
ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are
likely in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight
and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today
through Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeast Bahamas

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high
surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 19.7N 62.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.0N 66.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 22.3N 68.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 23.5N 69.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 24.9N 70.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 26.4N 70.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 30.6N 70.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 35.7N 66.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 161432
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 4 ERIN STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 62.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue this afternoon. a turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn
toward the north is expected to occur early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico over the weekend.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph
(250 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening
is expected this afternoon, and Erin could become a Category 5
hurricane. Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the rest of
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
data is 923 mb (27.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to continue producing
areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area today.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 161431
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 62.8W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 923 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 50SE 40SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 62.8W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.0N 66.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.3N 68.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N 69.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.9N 70.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.4N 70.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 30.6N 70.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 170SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 35.7N 66.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 200NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 62.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 161152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 4 ERIN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. While the eye
has wobbled westward during the past few hours, Erin is moving
generally toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). This
motion is expected to continue through the weekend with a gradual
decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the north is expected to
occur early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is
expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near
145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued
rapid strengthening is expected today, followed by fluctuations in
intensity through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 160951
TCUAT5

Hurricane Erin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
550 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Erin and on
the first pass through the hurricane they found that maximum
sustained winds have increased to 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. This makes Erin a Category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The minimum pressure has
fallen to 948 mb (27.99 inches). The next intermediate advisory
will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 550 AM AST...0950 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 61.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Gibbs/Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160835
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

Erin is rapidly strengthening and is now a category 3 major
hurricane. Satellite images indicate that Erin has a small eye and a
compact and symmetric inner core. The hurricane has also been
maintaining a large area of deep convection to the southwest of the
core, and those outer rainbands are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters departed Erin a few hours
ago, but on their last couple of passes through the center, the
minimum pressure was steadily falling. Since the structure of the
system has notably improved over the past few hours, the initial
intensity is increased to 105 kt, and that could be conservative.
Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating
Erin again later this morning, and that wealth of data will be very
helpful in evaluating the cyclone's intensity and structure.

The system continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest at
about 17 kt on the south side of a subtropical ridge. This overall
motion should continue through the weekend, taking the core of Erin
to the north of the eastern Caribbean Islands through Sunday. After
that time, the western side of the ridge is expected to weaken, due
to a series of shortwave troughs, and that should cause Erin to slow
down and make a gradual turn to the north. The models agree on this
general theme, but there are some differences on where, when, and
how sharply Erin makes the northward turn. The NHC track forecast is
a touch to the left of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest consensus aids. Confidence continues to increase
that the core of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas and the
United States.

Erin is expected to continue to rapidly strengthen over the next 12
hours while it remains in favorable conditions of warm water, low
wind shear, and in an environment of high moisture. Erin will likely
become a Category 4 hurricane later today and strengthening could
continue through tonight. By early next week, however, an increase
in shear should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies above the guidance for
the first 24 to 36 hours, and then falls near the middle of the
guidance envelope after that.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in
strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next
several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast
to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough
ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands
are possible in portions of the the northern Leeward Islands
later today and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
tonight and Sunday.

3. Erin is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip currents
along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the
U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 19.8N 61.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 20.3N 63.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 21.1N 65.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 22.1N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 23.3N 68.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 24.6N 69.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 26.2N 70.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 29.9N 70.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 34.7N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160834
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...ERIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 61.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Antigua/Barbuda has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 61.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue through the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward
speed. A turn toward the north is expected to occur early next
week. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to
move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued rapid strengthening is expected,
and Erin is forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160833
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 61.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 50SE 40SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 135SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 61.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.3N 63.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.1N 65.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.1N 67.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.3N 68.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.6N 69.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 26.2N 70.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 29.9N 70.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 170SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 34.7N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 200NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 61.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160530
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER IN THE WEEKEND...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 60.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 60.6 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue through the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward
speed. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to
move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected over the next 24 to 36
hours, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane later in
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter is 971 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This
rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160258
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin appears to be starting a period of rapid intensification
tonight. The structure on satellite imagery has improved quite
dramatically, with a small eye becoming more apparent on infrared
satellite images within a small but cold central dense overcast.
GOES-19 1-minute imagery also shows convective hot towers rotating
cyclonically around, helping to make the hurricane's core more
axis-symmetric. We have had a wealth of data from both the NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters this evening. The Tail Doppler
Radar data on board the NOAA-P3 showed that the wind field has
become much better organized, especially in the northern
semi-circle, with tilt diagnostics showing Erin's deep-layer
circulation now vertically aligned. Within the past hour, the Air
Force C-130 aircraft found 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt in the
northwestern quadrant. This reduces to a sustained wind of 85 kt,
making Erin a Category 2 hurricane.

The hurricane moved a little right of track earlier this evening,
but smoothing out the wobbles, the latest motion still appears to be
west-northwestward at 290/16 kt. Not much has changed with the track
philosophy, with a large subtropical anticyclone
helping to steer Erin off to the west-northwest for at least the
next 24-48 hours. Thereafter, a weakness in this ridge begins to
develop, thanks in part to a series of digging shortwaves along a
broad longwave trough centered just west of Atlantic Canada. This
evolution in the synoptic pattern should allow Erin to turn
northwestward and then northward by the end of the forecast period.
The track guidance remains in pretty good agreement for the first
2-3 days of the period, but across-track spread does increase by day
5, with the ECMWF model on the left side of the guidance envelope,
and the GFS on the right side. The latest NHC track forecast is
quite similar to the prior one, and elects to split the difference
between these solutions, close to the HCCA and GDMI track solutions.

In the short-term, all factors appear favorable for Erin to
intensify, likely rapidly, over the next day or two. With the
development of a small inner core, low shear, warm sea-surface
temperatures, and ample mid-level moisture. DTOPS guidance shows a
greater than 75 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity over
the next 24 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows that
amount of intensification over the next day, bringing Erin to
Category 4 intensity by tomorrow night, and peaking at 125 kt in 36
h. The tricky part of the forecast comes after the next day, where
it seems likely there will be some inner-core fluctuations due to
eyewall replacement cycles, which are difficult to predict with much
lead time. In addition, the models continue to show the potential
for an increase in northwesterly vertical wind shear to 20-30 kt at
48-72 hours. In fact, the HAFS-A/B simulated satellite imagery show
a significant degradation in structure over this time period, so the
NHC intensity forecast now shows a little weakening beyond 36 h, and
it could weaken more if these hurricane-regional models verify.
Regardless, the combination of eyewall replacement cycles and
vertical wind shear will likely lead to a dramatic expansion of the
wind field of Erin, making it a large and powerful hurricane towards
the end of the forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated
and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in
rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later
in the weekend.

3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the
east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing,
there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip
currents along western Atlantic beaches next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 19.5N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 20.2N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 20.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 21.7N 66.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 22.9N 67.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 24.0N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 25.6N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 28.9N 70.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160256
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AND EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 59.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 59.5 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected to
continue through the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward
speed. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move
just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend.

Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 24-36 hours, and Erin
is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by NOAA and Air Force
dropsonde data is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This
rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands this weekend, and will
likely spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160255
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 59.5W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 120SE 75SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 59.5W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 58.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.2N 61.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.9N 64.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.7N 66.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.9N 67.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.0N 68.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 25.6N 69.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 28.9N 70.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 190SW 170NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 59.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 152350
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN INTENSIFYING AS IT NEARS ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NORTH
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 58.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Antigua/Barbuda has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for the island of Barbuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 58.5 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue through the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward
speed. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move
just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicates that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected over the next few
days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during the
weekend. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
are investigating Erin this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
dropsonde data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This
rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic early next
week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 152043
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin continues to slowly become better organized, with convective
banding increasing near the center and a couple of attempts to form
an eye. Earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data did not
show any increase in winds after the previous advisory, although
the central pressure fell to near 993 mb. Satellite intensity
estimates are in the 60-75 kt range and are gradually increasing.
The initial intensity is held at 65 kt pending the arrival of the
next NOAA and Air Force aircraft this evening.

The initial motion is 290 to 295 degrees at 15 kt. The subtropical
ridge to the north will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward
through the weekend, although the motion during the next 36 h or so
may be closer to 285 degrees. After that time, encroaching
mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a weakness to
develop in the ridge, and this will cause Erin to gradually turn
northward with a decrease in forward speed. The guidance remains in
fairly good agreement through about 72 hours. After that time,
there are still differences in both the forward speed and
cross-track spread with regards the turn toward the north. The
regional hurricane models again lie along the western edge of the
guidance envelope, while the GFS remains on the eastern edge.
Overall, though, there again has been little change in the guidance
envelope and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from
the previous track.

Erin is forecast to be in an environment of light to occasionally
moderate northwesterly vertical shear and over sea surface
temperatures that warm to 29-30C along the forecast track. However,
there is also a large area of mid-level dry and African dust to the
north of the hurricane, and the satellite appearance suggests Erin
is ingesting tongues of dry air. Although the environment may not
be ideal, the regional hurricane models are in excellent agreement
that Erin will reach a peak intensity at or above 120 kt during the
next 2-4 days. Based on this, the new intensity forecast now calls
for a peak intensity of 125 kt in 72 h, and it is possible Erin
could get stronger than this. As the hurricane gets stronger, there
is a high chance that eyewall replacement cycles will cause
fluctuations in intensity that are not included in the current
forecast. It is also expected that Erin will become very large and
powerful hurricane by the end of the forecast period in the
southwestern Atlantic, and the current forecast wind radii at 96-120
h may not be large enough.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated
and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in
rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later
in the weekend.

3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the
east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing,
there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip
currents along western Atlantic beaches next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 18.9N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 19.6N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 20.4N 62.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 21.2N 65.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 22.3N 67.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 23.4N 68.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 24.8N 69.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 27.9N 70.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 32.2N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 152042
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 57.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 57.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 59.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.4N 62.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.2N 65.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N 68.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.8N 69.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 27.9N 70.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 32.2N 69.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 57.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 152042
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 57.6W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 57.6 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue through the weekend with some decrease in forward
speed. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move
just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next
two to three days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane
during the weekend. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are scheduled to investigate Erin this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This
rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151736
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 56.8W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 56.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward
Islands over the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next
two to three days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane
during the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This
rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 151447
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin has become better organized during the past several hours. The
last few NOAA and Air Force Reserve aircraft passes through the
cyclone have indicated the formation of an eyewall, with the Air
Force Reserve aircraft reporting 700-mb flight-level winds of 75 kt
northeast of the center. In addition, conventional satellite imagery
shows the development of a central dense overcast, and a recently
received WSFM microwave overpass shows a well-defined ring of
shallow to moderate convection in the 37 GHz imagery. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt and Erin
becomes the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The initial motion is 290/15. The subtropical ridge to the north
will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward into the weekend.
Encroaching mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a
weakness to develop in the ridge during the latter part of the
forecast period, and this will result in the hurricane gradually
turning northwestward and northward by 120 h. The guidance remains
in fairly good agreement through about 60-72 hours. After that time,
there are some differences in both the forward speed and cross-track
spread with the turn toward the north. The regional hurricane models
again lie along the western edge of the guidance envelope, while the
GFS and Google DeepMind models remain on the eastern edge. Although
still spread, the guidance envelope has not shifted significantly
since the last advisory, and the new track forecast is an update of
the previous forecast. There is still uncertainty about what impacts
Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

Erin is currently in a favorable environment for strengthening,
although there are some uncertainties on whether dry air is
entraining into the core. The improved low-level structure
indicates potential for rapid strengthening, and based on this the
first 36-48 h of the new intensity forecast shows a faster
development rate. After 48 h, the hurricane is forecast to
encounter some northerly to northwesterly vertical shear that should
at least slow development. However, the global and regional
hurricane models are in good agreement that Erin will become a
powerful and increasingly large hurricane over the southwestern
Atlantic over the weekend and into next week. It should be noted
that the the Florida State SuperEnsemble and the US Navy COAMPS-TC
models forecast higher peak intensities than the official forecast,
so it would not be too surprising if Erin became stronger than
currently forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated
and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in
rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later
in the weekend.

3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the
east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing,
there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip
currents along western Atlantic beaches next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 18.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 19.8N 61.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 20.6N 63.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 21.6N 66.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 22.7N 67.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 23.8N 69.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 26.5N 70.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 30.3N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2025 SEASON...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 56.1W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 56.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward
Islands over the weekend.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph
(120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is
expected during the next two to three days, and Erin is forecast to
become a major hurricane during the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km) mainly to the north of the center .

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA and Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This
rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 151446
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 56.1W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 56.1W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.9N 58.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.8N 61.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.6N 63.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.6N 66.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.7N 67.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.8N 69.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.5N 70.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 30.3N 71.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 56.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151156
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 55.2W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 55.2 West. Erin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days
and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and it could
become a major hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy
rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend
across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are
expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next
week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150843
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin has struggled to become better organized tonight, as the system
is still trying to establish an inner core. Convection has
diminished over the low-level center in recent hours due to some dry
air entrainment. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have been
investigating the system this morning and found maximum flight-level
winds of 52 kt. Recent infrared satellite imagery depicts a deep
convective band becoming established in the southern semi-circle
although flight-level aircraft data found little wind within that
band. Objective satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 67
kt. Given the latest recon data and satellite estimates, the
intensity is held at a potentially generous 60 kt. A NOAA P-3
hurricane hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, and
hopefully Tail Doppler Radar data will be able to better assess the
structure of the system.

Erin is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 285/15
kt. A subtropical ridge to the north will continue to steer the
system west-northwestward into the weekend. A weakness in the ridge
is forecast to develop early next week, and this will result in the
system gradually turning northwestward then northward by the end of
the forecast period. The guidance is in fairly good agreement
through about 60-72 hours. After 72 hours, there are some
differences in the forward speed and cross-track spread with the
turn toward the north. The regional hurricane models lie along the
western edge of the guidance envelope with the GFS and Google
DeepMind models remaining on the eastern edge of the guidance. The
latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one in the short
term, and was nudged slightly west beyond day 3 closer to some of
the simple consensus aids. There is still uncertainty about what
impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

The storm is in a favorable environment for strengthening, and it
will likely intensify once the inner core becomes more organized.
Sea surface temperatures have warmed to about 28C and should
continue to warm to near 30C along the forecast track, with a slight
decrease in shear expected over the next day or so. Although SHIPS
guidance depicts a slight increase in shear later this weekend, the
upper-level wind pattern becomes a little more favorable with
increasing mid-level RH values. The NHC forecast is similar to the
previous with a steady rate of strengthening and lies near the
consensus aids, with Erin forecast to become a hurricane later
today, and a major hurricane late this weekend. Some of the
hurricane regional models and the Florida State Superensemble depict
a higher peak intensity than the current NHC forecast. Regardless of
the details, Erin will be a large and powerful hurricane over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto
Rico, may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides this weekend into early next week.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands. Tropical storm conditions could also occur in
portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the weekend,
and additional watches may be required later today.

3. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 17.8N 54.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.4N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 59.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 20.1N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 21.0N 64.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 22.2N 66.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 23.2N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 25.5N 70.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 28.9N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150843
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 54.4W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 54.4W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 53.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 56.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 59.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.1N 62.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.0N 64.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.2N 66.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.2N 68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.9N 71.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 54.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150843
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Erin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days and
Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could become
a major hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 997 mb
(29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy
rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend
across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are
expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next
week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150550
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 53.0W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 53.0 West. Erin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion
expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few
days and Erin is expected to become a hurricane today and could
become a major hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy
rainfall beginning later today and continuing through the weekend
across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are
expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the eastern United States coast
by next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150250
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025

Erin has intensified tonight. The first NOAA-P3 reconnaissance
mission into the storm found that the center was a little more
embedded in the deep convection than earlier with a compact wind
field particularly strong on the eastern flank. Tail Doppler Radar
data from the aircraft indicated the center is starting to become
better aligned, though some residual southward tilt with height
still exists, which can also be seen on a 2339 UTC GMI microwave
pass. In the most recent leg, peak 700-mb flight level winds from
the NOAA aircraft were 69 kt in the northeast quadrant. This
value reduces to surface wind near 60 kt, just shy of
hurricane intensity.

Erin is now starting to move west-northwestward at 285/15 kt. An
extensive mid-level ridge stretched from off the eastern United
States coast all the way to the eastern Atlantic remains in place
helping to steer the storm generally west-northwestward for at least
the next 2 to 3 days with it gradually slowing down. During this
time-span, a mid-latitude trough moving into the northwestern
Atlantic is expected to dig equatorward to the northeast of Bermuda,
with another reinforcing shortwave moving into Atlantic Canada
towards the end of the forecast period. These features should create
a weakness in the subtropical ridge that Erin is expected to turn
northwestward and north-northwestward into. The latest track
guidance was quite similar to the prior cycle, just a little faster
than before towards the end of the forecast period, and only small
adjustments were made to the NHC forecast track. This track roughly
splits the latest forecast from the Google Deep Mind (GDMI) and HCCA
consensus aid. Still, there is a healthy amount of spread in the
guidance and uncertainty remains about what impacts Erin may bring
to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda in the long range.

With Erin's core structure improving this evening, the storm appears
poised to intensify more quickly in the short term. Rapid
intensification probabilities have increased in SHIPS guidance, with
now a 38-40 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in the next 24 h. The
environment continues to become more thermodynamically favorable,
with Erin crossing into 28C and warmer sea-surface temperatures, and
mid-level moisture increasing over the forecast time period. Thus,
the NHC intensity forecast will show more intensification over the
next 48-60 hours, and Erin is now forecast to become a major
hurricane earlier and peak at 115 kt, category 4 intensity. After
that time, there remains evidence in both SHIPS guidance and model
fields that northwesterly vertical wind shear could increase over
the system. In addition, there is a good chance Erin may begin to
undergo inner-core structural changes, like eyewall replacement
cycles, that could broaden its wind field but also cause its
intensity to plateau. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast now shows
some gradual weakening after a peak intensity in 72 h, though the
models show the wind radii expanding quite dramatically in the day
3-5 period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little on the
high side of the guidance, especially in the short-term, but ends up
near the consensus aids HCCA and IVCN towards the end of the
forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto
Rico, may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides this weekend into early next week.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands. Tropical storm conditions could also occur in
portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the weekend,
and additional watches may be required tonight or on Friday.

3. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.1N 52.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 18.6N 58.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 19.4N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 22.4N 67.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 25.0N 69.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 28.0N 70.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150247
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025

...ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND FORMIDABLE MAJOR
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 52.7W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 52.7 West. Erin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion
expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few
days and Erin is expected to become a hurricane tonight and could
become a major hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy
rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend
across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are
expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the eastern United States coast
by next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150243
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 52.7W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 52.7W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 51.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.6N 58.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 35SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 61.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.4N 67.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 25.0N 69.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 28.0N 70.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 52.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 142352
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025

...NOAA AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT ERIN IS NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 51.9W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 51.9 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to
continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward
Islands over the weekend.

NOAA aircraft data indicates that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Erin is
expected to soon become a hurricane and could become a major
hurricane by the end of this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by NOAA Hurricane Hunter
dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy
rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend
across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are
expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 142044
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025

Erin has changed little in organization during the past several
hours. Conventional satellite imagery shows that the storm
continues to produce strong convection near the center. However, a
recently received AMSR2 overpass shows that the convection is
confined mainly to the southwestern quadrant and lacks well-defined
banding. Satellite intensity estimates are now in the 45-55 kt
range, and the initial intensity remains 50 kt for this advisory.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route investigate the
system this evening, providing information on the storm's strength
and structure.

There is little change to either the intensity philosophy or
forecast since the last advisory. Erin will be in an environment of
light-to-moderate easterly vertical shear and moving over increasing
sea surface temperatures during the next 48 h. These conditions
should allow a faster rate of intensification during this time, and
Erin is still forecast to become a hurricane by 24 h. The
environment becomes less conducive after 48 h, with the global
models forecasting northwesterly shear over the cyclone as a large
upper-level anticyclone develops to the west. Despite this forecast
shear, the global and regional hurricane models forecast
intensification to continue, although at a slower rate than during
the first 48 h. Based on these forecasts, the new intensity forecast
shows steady intensification through 48 h, followed by a slower rate
of development during the remainder of the forecast period. The new
forecast is an update of the previous forecast. It should be noted
that there is some guidance that suggests a possibility Erin could
intensify further than shown in the official forecast.

The initial motion is now 280/15 kt. The storm continues to be
steered by a subtropical ridge to the north, and this ridge should
steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward during the next three
days. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast
to weaken or break due to the influence of the mid-latitude
westerlies over the northeastern United States. This evolution
should lead to Erin turning toward the northwest or north-northwest
during the remainder of the forecast period, although there remains
significant spread in the guidance on just how sharp this turn will
be. The new forecast track is a little south of the previous track
through 72 h, and then it is nudged a little to the west of the
previous track at 96 and 120 h. Due to the spread in the track
guidance later in the forecast period, there is still a greater
than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda in the long range.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto
Rico, may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides this weekend into early next week.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands. Tropical storm conditions could also occur in
portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the weekend,
and additional watches may be required tonight or on Friday.

3. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 16.7N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.3N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 18.1N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 19.0N 59.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 19.8N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 20.8N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 21.7N 66.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 24.2N 68.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 27.2N 70.3W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 142043
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC THU AUG 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 51.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 51.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 50.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.3N 53.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.1N 56.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 62.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.8N 64.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.7N 66.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.2N 68.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 27.2N 70.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 51.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 142043
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...ERIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 51.2W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Antigua/Barbuda has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for Anguilla and Barbuda.

The Meteorological Service of France has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 51.2 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to
continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward
Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Erin is
expected to become a hurricane on Friday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Erin this evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy
rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend
across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are
expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 141435
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 14 2025

...ERIN STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 49.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 49.7 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to
continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward
Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane on
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 141434
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 14 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Erin has become a little better
organized this morning, with the formation of a ragged central
dense overcast with some outer banding in the northwestern
semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have increased a little
during the past 6 h and are now in the 40-55 kt range. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.

Erin will be in an environment of light-to-moderate easterly
vertical shear and moving over increasing sea surface temperatures
during the next 48 h. This should allow a faster rate of
intensification during this time, and Erin is now forecast to become
a hurricane by 24 h. The environment becomes less conducive after 48
h, with the global models forecast northwesterly shear over the
cyclone as a large upper-level anticyclone develops to the west.
Despite this forecast shear, the global and regional hurricane
models forecast intensification to continue, although at a slower
rate than during the first 48 h. Based on these forecasts, the new
intensity forecast shows steady intensification through 48 h,
followed by a slower rate of development during the remainder of the
forecast period. The new forecast is near the intensity consensus,
and there is guidance that suggests the possibility Erin could be
stronger than currently forecast.

The initial motion is now 275/15. The storm continues to be steered
by a subtropical ridge to the north, and this ridge should steer the
cyclone generally west-northwestward during the next three days.
After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to
weaken or break due to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies
over the northeastern United States. This evolution should lead to
Erin turning toward the northwest or north-northwest during the
remainder of the forecast period, although there is significant
spread in the guidance on just how sharp this turn will be. The new
forecast track is south of the consensus models through 48 h and
then lies near the consensus models thereafter. Due to the spread in
the track guidance by 120 h and beyond, there is still a greater
than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda in the long range.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and
tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as
the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Interests in these
areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin.

2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing. As we
approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an
opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 16.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.9N 51.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.6N 57.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.4N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 23.5N 68.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 26.5N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 141433
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC THU AUG 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 49.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 49.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 48.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.9N 51.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.6N 57.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 60.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.5N 69.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 49.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 140846
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Thu Aug 14 2025

...ERIN CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 48.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 48.2 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue today, with a west-northwestward motion
beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend. On the forecast
track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of
the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with
more significant intensification possible on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 140846
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Thu Aug 14 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Erin continues to produce an area of
deep convection, with the center estimated to be on the northeastern
side of the convective shield. There has not been much change since
the previous advisory, and there has been no recent microwave
imagery to assess the overall structure. However, TAFB noted a
slight increase in the curved banding with the latest data-t
value. Subjective satellite current intensity estimates have held
steady around 45 kt, and objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS
range from 39 to 51 knots, with a satellite consensus of 46 kt.
Using a blend of these estimates, the intensity is held at 45 kt for
this advisory.

The overall environment around Erin is conducive for gradual
strengthening during the next day or so. Thereafter, the system is
forecast to move across warmer waters, and the GFS and EC SHIPS
guidance suggests a slight decrease in shear. This increasingly
favorable environment could result in a period of rapid
intensification, which is explicitly forecast between 24-48 h. Wind
shear may slightly increase later this weekend, although sea surface
temperatures remain around 29C, with favorable divergence aloft.
Most of the intensity guidance continues to show strengthening at
this time frame just at a steady rate, with Erin forecast to become
a major hurricane by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus, there
are some models, such as the FSSE, that depict a higher intensity by
the end of the forecast period than the current NHC forecast. There
continues to be confidence that Erin will be a large and powerful
hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend.

Erin continues to move westward at an estimated motion of 270/15 kt.
The storm is being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north,
and the system should gradually turn more west-northwestward later
tonight, with this motion anticipated into the weekend. A weakness
in the ridge is forecast to develop early next week, resulting in a
turn towards the northwest or north-northwest. The guidance is
fairly tightly cluster through day 3, with some slight along-track
spread on the turn toward the northwest. Beyond day 3, the GFS and
Google DeepMind are on the eastern edge of the guidance, and the
hurricane regional models on the western side. The latest NHC
forecast is similar to the previous and lies near the consensus
aids. There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what
impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and
tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as
the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Interests in these
areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin.

2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing. As we
approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an
opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 16.3N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.8N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.6N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 19.3N 59.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 20.1N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 21.0N 64.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 23.2N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 26.0N 69.3W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 140845
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC THU AUG 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 48.2W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 48.2W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 47.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.8N 50.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 53.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 59.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.1N 62.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.0N 64.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.2N 67.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 26.0N 69.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 48.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 140238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

Satellite images show that a solid area of convection remains near
Erin, with low-cloud motions suggesting the center is on the
northeastern side of the thunderstorm activity. Overall, there
hasn't been a lot of change with the satellite presentation, and
that is reflected in recent stable Dvorak and scatterometer
values. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

The environment around Erin should remain marginally conducive
during the next day or so, which will likely promote gradual
strengthening. Thereafter, the storm is forecast to move across
warmer waters, with potentially a decrease in shear. This
evolution results in a period of potential rapid intensification
late this week, and the official forecast reflects that
possibility. While shear is generally forecast to increase over
the weekend, this appears to be canceled out by large-scale
divergence and water temperatures above 29C. Most models respond
to this by showing a lower rate of intensification at that time.
The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward somewhat from the
previous forecast beyond 24 h based on the current guidance.
There is increasing confidence on a large and powerful hurricane
over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend.

The initial motion is now 270/14 kt. There are no significant
changes to the forecast track or steering. Erin should move
westward overnight and then west-northwestward from Thursday through
the weekend due to steering from the subtropical ridge. The ridge
is forecast to break by early next week, resulting in a turn towards
the northwest or north-northwest. The new forecast is basically an
update of the previous forecast in the near term, and on the eastern
side of the guidance envelope by day 5 between the consensus and the
Google Deep Mind model. There is still a greater than normal
uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the
long range.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and
tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as
the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Interests in these
areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin.

2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing. As we
approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an
opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 16.3N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.5N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.2N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.0N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 57.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 19.8N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 20.6N 62.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 22.8N 66.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 25.5N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 140237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

...ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 46.6W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 46.6 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward
motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or
just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
with more significant intensification possible on Friday and
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 140235
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC THU AUG 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 46.6W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 46.6W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 45.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.5N 48.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.2N 51.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 54.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.9N 57.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.8N 60.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.6N 62.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 25.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 46.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 132034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

...ERIN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 45.0W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 45.0 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward
motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or
just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane by
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 132034
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

Convection has become more concentrated near the center of Erin
during the past few hours, although the storm still has a somewhat
ragged overall appearance. Satellite intensity estimates have
increased a little since the last advisory and are now in the 35-50
kt range. Based on these trends, the initial intensity is increased
to 45 kt.

Erin remains in an area of marginal sea surface temperatures and
moisture and this should continue for another 12 h or so. After
that, the forecast track takes the system over warmer SSTs that
increase to 29-30C by the end of the forecast period. In addition,
the cyclone is currently in a favorable low- to moderate-shear
environment, and this is likely to continue for the next 72 h or so.
This evolution should allow Erin to significantly intensify, with
the cyclone forecast to become a hurricane by 36 h and a major
hurricane by 96 hr. After 72-96 h, Erin may encounter increased
northwesterly shear as it tracks to the northeast of a large
upper-level anticyclone forecast to form near Hispaniola and the
southeastern Bahamas. Although it is unclear how much shear Erin
will encounter, the intensity guidance suggests at least a lower
rate of intensification at that time. The new intensity forecast is
adjusted upward somewhat from the previous forecast through 72 h
based on current trends and the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is now 270/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge
north of Erin should steer the cyclone westward for the next 12 h
or so, followed by a generally west-northwestward motion through
96 h. After that time, a developing break in the ridge near the
southeastern coast of the United States should lead to a
northwestward motion. The track guidance is still in fairly good
agreement, and the official forecast remains on the southern side
of the guidance envelope between the HCCA corrected consensus and
the other consensus models. However, the guidance envelope has
shifted a little westward since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is also a little west of the previous track. Users
are reminded that NHC track forecasts have an average error of
150 to 215 miles at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments to the
forecast are still possible.

It should be noted that the directional spread becomes very large
in both the deterministic and ensemble track guidance at long range.
Therefore, there is a greater than normal uncertainty about what
impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Bermuda.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and
tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as
the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Interests in these
areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin.

2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing. As we
approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an
opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.3N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.3N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.9N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 55.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 20.2N 61.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 22.2N 65.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 24.8N 68.2W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 132033
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC WED AUG 13 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 45.0W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 45.0W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.3N 47.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.9N 50.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 55.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.2N 61.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.2N 65.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.8N 68.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 131500
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC WED AUG 13 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 43.4W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 43.4W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.3N 45.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 48.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.4N 51.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 54.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 57.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.9N 60.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.7N 64.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 43.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 131435
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

Erin continues to have a ragged overall appearance, with one burst
of convection just southwest of the center and skeletal convective
bands elsewhere in the northwestern semicircle. Various subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-45 kt
range, and these have changed little over the past several hours.
A just-received scatterometer overpass shows winds near 40 kt just
north of the center, and based on these data the initial intensity
is held at 40 kt.

Erin continues to struggle to intensify, likely due to its track
over persistent sea surface temperatures of 26-27C and entrainment
of dry and stable air. The forecast track keeps the system over
these marginal SSTs for another 24 h or so, followed by a motion
over increasing SSTs that reach 29-30C by the end of the forecast
period. The cyclone is currently in a favorable low- to
moderate-shear environment, and this is likely to continue for the
next 72 h. This evolution should allow Erin to significantly
intensify, with the cyclone forecast to become a hurricane by 48 h
and a major hurricane by 96 hr. After 72-96 h, Erin may encounter
increased northerly shear as it tracks to the northeast of a
large upper-level anticyclone forecast to form near Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas. Although the strength of shear the cyclone
will encounter is uncertain, the intensity guidance suggests a lower
rate of intensification at that time. The new intensity forecast is
little changed from the previous forecast and is in best agreement
with the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is now 265/15 kt. While a strong low- to
mid-level ridge currently is situated to the north of Erin, in a day
or two a slight weakness is forecast to develop in this ridge near
65W longitude. This should cause the tropical cyclone to turn
west-northwestward after 24 h, with some decrease in forward speed
after 72 h. After 96 h, a developing break in the ridge near the
southeastern coast of the United States should lead to a
northwestward motion. The track guidance is in fairly good
agreement, and the official forecast on the southern side of the
guidance envelope between the HCCA corrected consensus and the other
consensus models. The new track is similar to the previous track
through 72 h and a little west of the previous track thereafter.
Users are reminded that NHC track forecasts have an average error of
150 to 215 miles at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments to the
forecast are still possible.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some
impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts
is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor
the progress of this storm.

2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach the
climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune
time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 16.3N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 16.3N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.6N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 17.4N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.2N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 19.0N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 19.9N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 21.7N 64.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 23.9N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 131434
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

...ERIN CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 43.4W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 43.4 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward
motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or
just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin later today or tonight,
and Erin is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 130843
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

Deep convection is redeveloping intermittently over the western
portion of Erin's circulation. However the system continues to
have a rather ragged-looking appearance, with limited convective
banding features. There appears to be some easterly shear over the
storm at this time. Subjective Dvorak classifications are a little
below tropical storm strength and objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS are generally in the 35-40 kt range. Based on these
estimates, the advisory intensity remains at 40 kt.

Erin has not been able to strengthen significantly for the past
couple of days, likely due to marginal SSTs, and a relatively dry
mid- to lower-tropospheric air mass. However, it is expected that
the system's environment will gradually become more conducive for
intensification over the next 48 hours. In particular, Erin will
be traversing progressively warmer ocean waters with likely a
little less environmental subsidence. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous ones and continues to call for
Erin to become a hurricane later this week. This is also supported
by the corrected model consensus, HCCA, and Google DeepMind model
guidance.

Although the center is not easy to locate, it is estimated that the
cyclone is continuing on its generally westward track, at about
260/17 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge is situated to the
north of Erin, and in a few days a slight weakness develops in the
ridge near 65W longitude. This should cause the tropical cyclone to
begin to move west-northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed
in a couple of days. The track guidance is in fairly good
agreement, and the official forecast is close to the HCCA solution
and is on the southern side of the model track forecast suite. This
is also very similar to the previous NHC prediction. Users are
reminded that NHC track forecasts have an average error of 120-180 n
mi (150-215 statute miles) at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments
to the forecast are still possible.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some
impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts
is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor
the progress of this storm.

2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach the
climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune
time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.5N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 16.4N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 16.5N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 17.8N 52.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 18.6N 55.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.5N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 21.3N 63.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 23.4N 66.8W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 130842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

...ERIN CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 41.9W
ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 41.9 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion
is expected into Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion
beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or
just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will
likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 130841
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 41.9W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 41.9W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 41.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.4N 44.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.5N 47.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.8N 52.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.6N 55.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 58.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.3N 63.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N 66.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 41.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 130238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

Deep convection has returned near Erin this evening, though it
appears to mostly be west of the center. An ASCAT pass from a few
hours ago showed maximum winds of about the same magnitude as the
earlier data, 35-40 kt, though it did display a larger area of
tropical-storm-force winds. With no significant change in the
satellite intensity estimates, the initial wind speed remains 40 kt.

The environment around Erin gradually gets more conducive for
strengthening during the next day or so, including a slow rise in
SSTs and instability. By late Thursday, SSTs rise above 28C with
continued light or moderate shear. This evolution should promote
slow intensification in the near-term, followed by quick
intensification in a couple of days, especially if Erin continues
to have a small core. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, but a little higher to follow the latest
corrected consensus guidance. Beyond 96 hours, the global models
all suggest that shear will increase, so the wind speed is leveled
off at that point.

Erin continues to move quickly south-of-due-west (260/17) due
to strong low- to mid-level ridging located to the north over the
central and eastern Atlantic. Model guidance has trended a bit
southward in the near-term, so the first day or so of the forecast
has been adjusted equatorward. In a couple of days, a weakening of
that ridge is anticipated, which should cause Erin to begin moving
west-northwestward by Friday. There are no significant changes to
the long-range NHC forecast, and note that the 18Z GFS appeared to
be a significant outlier and was mostly disregarded in this package.
The new forecast remains along the southern part of the guidance
envelope, lying closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and
Google Deep Mind (GDM) models. Keep in mind that NHC track
forecasts have an average error of 120-180 n mi (150-215 statute
miles) at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments in the forecast are
still possible.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some
impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts
is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor
the progress of this storm.

2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach the
climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune
time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.7N 40.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.3N 42.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 16.2N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.6N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 17.3N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 18.1N 54.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 18.9N 57.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 20.5N 62.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 22.5N 66.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 130236
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC WED AUG 13 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 40.1W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 40.1W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 39.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N 42.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.2N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 48.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 51.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 54.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.9N 57.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 40.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 130236
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

...ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 40.1W
ABOUT 1520 MI...2440 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 40.1 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion
is expected tonight through Thursday, with a west-northwestward
motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or
just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or
so, and gradual strengthening is forecast to begin by late
Wednesday. Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 122032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 38.3W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 38.3W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 37.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.6N 40.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.4N 43.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.6N 46.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.2N 49.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 52.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.2N 65.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 38.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 122032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

...ERIN STILL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 38.3W
ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1635 MI...2630 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 38.3 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A slightly slower
westward motion is expected tonight through Thursday, with a
west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is
likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so,
but gradual strengthening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday.
Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 122033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

Not much has changed with Erin's structure since this morning. A
little bit of convection has formed over the low-level center, but
overall the shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited. Due
to the cyclone's fast motion, it is assumed that the maximum winds
have not decreased, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

A quick south-of-due-west motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours, with strong low- to mid-level ridging located to the
north over the central and eastern Atlantic. Global models
indicate that ridge is likely to weaken in a few days, which should
cause Erin to begin moving west-northwestward in about 60 hours,
with that motion continuing through day 5 (Sunday). In contrast to
this morning, there were no major shifts in the latest track model
simulations. The new NHC forecast has been placed along the
southern part of the guidance envelope, lying closest to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google Deep Mind (GDM) models. This
results in the new NHC track forecast having no appreciable
difference from the morning forecast, with no additional shifting
toward the northern Leeward Islands. Keep in mind that NHC track
forecasts have an average error of 120-180 n mi (150-215 statute
miles) at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments in the forecast are
still possible.

It may still take Erin a little bit of time to produce more
significant deep convection while it continues to move over
marginally warm sea surface temperatures and through an atmosphere
of only modest instability and moisture. Sea surface temperatures
and instability begin to increase after about 24 hours, which
should allow Erin to produce more organized convection. Given that
the cyclone already has a well-defined low-level structure, this
could result in significant intensification toward the latter part
of the forecast period, especially since the global models show an
upper-level anticyclone building over the storm. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the lower end of the guidance during the first few
days of the forecast, but then falls in line closer to the
consensus aids in 3-5 days. In this scenario, Erin would still
become a major hurricane in about 4 or 5 days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some
impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts
is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor
the progress of this storm.

2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach the
climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune
time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 17.0N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.6N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.4N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 16.6N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 17.2N 49.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 17.9N 52.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 18.6N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 20.0N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 22.2N 65.7W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 121448
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

Erin still has a well-defined low-level circulation, but the
convective pattern has degraded since overnight, with only a band
of moderate convection located within the southern part of the
circulation. A 1226 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a maximum wind barb of
36 kt north of the center, and the intensity is held at a possibly
generous 40 kt. Most likely, this is a result of Erin's fast
motion, which has been south of due west (265 deg) at about 20 kt.

The guidance suite indicates that Erin may continue to lose some
latitude during the next 24 to 36 hours due to strong low- to
mid-level ridging over the eastern and central Atlantic, but overall
the general motion should be westward through early Thursday. After
that time, indications are that the ridge may weaken over the
western and central Atlantic, causing Erin to turn
west-northwestward, but there are model discrepancies on when
that might happen and where the break in the ridge actually forms.
The trend has been for a weaker Erin in the short term and possibly
a stronger ridge, and a number of track models, including HAFS-A and
-B, HWRF, the European, HCCA, and the Google Deep Mind, have shifted
south and west for much of the 5-day forecast. The NHC forecast has
shifted in that direction accordingly, and it should be noted that a
significant number of deterministic models and ensemble members
still lie even farther south.

The environment of marginal water temperatures (26-27 deg Celsius)
and low atmospheric instability and moisture appear to remain
nearly constant for the next 24 hours or so. Therefore, little to
no intensification is expected through early Wednesday. The
environment and water temperatures become much more suitable for
strengthening by 48 hours, and since the cyclone already has a
well-defined structure, it could become a hurricane by late
Thursday. Continued strengthening is forecast after that time, and
the NHC forecast continues to show Erin becoming a major hurricane
by day 5 (early Sunday). There is quite a lot of spread in the
intensity models, and the NHC prediction is in the upper regime of
the envelope, close to the SHIPS model, Florida State
Superensemble, and ICON intensity consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although it is still too early to know exactly what impacts Erin
might bring to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, the risk has increased for Erin to move closer to
these islands over the weekend. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this storm.

2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might
occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east
coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach
the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an
opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 17.2N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.8N 39.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 42.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.6N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 17.1N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 17.8N 51.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.5N 54.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 19.8N 60.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.4N 65.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 121447
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 36.3W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 36.3W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 35.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.8N 39.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 42.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.6N 45.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.1N 48.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.8N 51.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 54.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.8N 60.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.4N 65.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 36.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 121447
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

...ERIN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 36.3W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1765 MI...2835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 36.3 West. Erin is
moving quickly toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A
west-northwestward motion is forecast late Thursday into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but gradual
strengthening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Erin could become
a hurricane by late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 120845
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

The storm has not become significantly better organized on
geostationary satellite imagery over the past few hours. Deep
convection has diminished in intensity, as evidenced by a warming of
the cloud tops. An AMSR microwave image from a few hours ago showed
a well-defined banding feature over the southern semicircle of the
system. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 35 to 45
kt and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are generally near 40 kt.
Thus the advisory intensity is held at 40 kt.

Erin continues its rapid westward motion, at around 265/19 kt.
A strong 500 mb ridge is situated to the north of the cyclone,
resulting in a strong easterly steering current. The tropical
cyclone should continue on a general westward heading for the next
few days with a gradual decrease in forward speed as the ridge
weakens slightly. Later in the forecast period, the ridge is
expected to weaken a little more, and a more west-northwestward
track is likely. The official forecast track is a little left, or
south, of the previous one in 3-5 days, and very close to the
latest dynamical model consensus. This also very similar to the
mean of the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The spread of the track
models suggest near-average confidence in the NHC forecast.

During the forecast period, Erin will be traversing warmer
ocean waters and the SHIPS model diagnoses low vertical wind shear
over the system for the next several days. However, the model does
not indicate an increase in the environmental low- to
mid-tropospheric humidity during the next 72 hours or so.
Nonetheless, given the low shear and increasing SSTs, strengthening
is expected. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of
the model guidance and shows Erin becoming a major hurricane in
around 5 days. There is significant uncertainty in intensity
predictions at this time range.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may
bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of
the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the
hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your
preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 17.4N 34.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 17.2N 37.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 17.0N 43.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.4N 46.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 18.0N 49.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 18.7N 52.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 58.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 120843
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 34.3W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 34.3W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 33.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.2N 37.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.0N 40.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 43.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.4N 46.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.0N 49.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.7N 52.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 34.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 120843
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

...ERIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING SOON...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 34.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1890 MI...3045 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 34.3 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next several days with a decrease in
forward speed and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and
Erin is expected to become a hurricane in the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 120233
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025

After struggling earlier during the diurnal convective minimum, a
large convective burst has formed and persisted over the center of
Erin for the past several hours, and a recent GPM microwave pass
from 11/2237 UTC confirmed that the low-level center is underneath
this burst. The latest subjective intensity estimates range from
35-45 kt, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have
crept up slightly to the 40-45 kt range. The initial intensity is
held at 40 kt, which might be a tad conservative.

Erin continues moving quickly westward, with the latest motion
estimated at 275/18 kt. This general motion with a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected over the next 2 to 3 days as the
tropical storm is steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its
north. Towards the end of the forecast period, the ridge should
erode some, which would allow Erin to turn toward the west-northwest
and gain some latitude. However, there are some differences in the
global models as to how significant the weakness in the ridge will
be, and this will affect how far north the cyclone gets by day 5.
Some of the recent model solutions are a bit farther to the left (or
southwest) at the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is
nudged only very slightly to the left at days 4-5, and now lies
slightly to the north of the latest consensus aids. Based on the
model spread, the confidence in the track forecast appears to be
about average.

Erin is expected to remain in low vertical wind shear conditions for
the next 3-4 days. The thermodynamic environment is less favorable
in the short-term, with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) around
26-27C, and stable stratocumulus clouds noted just to the west and
northwest of Erin. Only slow strengthening is forecast during the
next 1 to 2 days until Erin reaches warmer water. A faster rate of
intensification is anticipated after that time. The latest NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one, and lies slightly
below the intensity consensus for the first 36 h. Thereafter, the
NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance
envelope. It is possible that vertical wind shear could increase in
4 to 5 days, but that will depend on where the upper-level ridge is
situated in relation to Erin, which is uncertain at this time.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may
bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of
the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the
hurricane season, it is an opportune time to ensure your
preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 17.6N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 17.2N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 17.1N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 18.7N 51.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 20.3N 56.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 120232
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.2N 38.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.1N 42.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.7N 51.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.3N 56.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 32.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 120233
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025

...ERIN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 32.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 2020 MI...3255 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 32.3 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next several days with a gradual
slowdown in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and
Erin is expected to become a hurricane later this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 112248 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025

Corrected spelling of storm name in third paragraph

Erin's structure this afternoon looks like a tropical cyclone that
is struggling with the nearby thermodynamic environment, with only a
small patch of deep convection pulsing near the estimated center. It
is possible some dry air may have been entrained into the small
circulation earlier today, causing its degraded appearance. For now,
subjective and objective intensity estimates haven't changed much
from the prior advisory, hovering in the 35-42 kt range, so the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt this advisory.

Erin is still moving quickly off to the west, with the latest
estimated motion at 270/18 kt. This general motion with a gradual
slowdown in forward speed is expected over the next 48-72 h as the
system remains steered by a prominent mid-level ridge to its north.
This ridge is forecast to move along with the storm. Towards the end
of the forecast period, the ridge should erode some and shift
northeastward of Erin, which should allow the cyclone to begin
gaining latitude by 120 h. The deterministic track guidance
generally agrees on this track evolution, and was only a little
faster than the prior cycle. The NHC track forecast is quite similar
to the previous one, and lies closest to a blend of the latest 12z
GFS and ECMWF forecasts (GFEX). However, it should be noted that
spread in the ensemble solutions starts to increase substantially by
the end of the forecast period, likely related to the magnitude of
ridging that remains poleward of Erin in five days.

As mentioned in the prior advisory, while vertical wind shear over
Erin is forecast to remain low for the next 3-4 days, the
thermodynamic environment is less favorable in the short-term, with
sea-surface temperatures between 26-27C, and plenty of stable
stratocumulus clouds along the forecast path of the storm.
Nonetheless, most of the hurricane-regional models show Erin slowly
intensifying during this period. As the storm moves into warmer
sea-surface temperatures after 48 h, a faster rate of
intensification is anticipated, as long as the shear remains low and
if Erin is able to mix out some of the dry air in its vicinity. The
intensity guidance is actually a little higher than the previous
cycle beyond 60 h, but the latest NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the prior one, showing Erin becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a
major hurricane in 120 h. This forecast is now a little lower than
HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF at the end of the forecast. There are some
indications there might some northwesterly shear impinging on the
cyclone in 96-120 h, so I elected to stay under these aids for this
cycle.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may
bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of
the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the
hurricane season, it is an opportune time to ensure your
preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 17.4N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.4N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.3N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.1N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 17.3N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 17.8N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 18.5N 50.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 20.0N 55.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 22.0N 60.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 112120
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025


Erin's structure this afternoon looks like a tropical cyclone that
is struggling with the nearby thermodynamic environment, with only a
small patch of deep convection pulsing near the estimated center. It
is possible some dry air may have been entrained into the small
circulation earlier today, causing its degraded appearance. For now,
subjective and objective intensity estimates haven't changed much
from the prior advisory, hovering in the 35-42 kt range, so the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt this advisory.

Erin is still moving quickly off to the west, with the latest
estimated motion at 270/18 kt. This general motion with a gradual
slowdown in forward speed is expected over the next 48-72 h as the
system remains steered by a prominent mid-level ridge to its north.
This ridge is forecast to move along with the storm. Towards the end
of the forecast period, the ridge should erode some and shift
northeastward of Erin, which should allow the cyclone to begin
gaining latitude by 120 h. The deterministic track guidance
generally agrees on this track evolution, and was only a little
faster than the prior cycle. The NHC track forecast is quite similar
to the previous one, and lies closest to a blend of the latest 12z
GFS and ECMWF forecasts (GFEX). However, it should be noted that
spread in the ensemble solutions starts to increase substantially by
the end of the forecast period, likely related to the magnitude of
ridging that remains poleward of Erin in five days.

As mentioned in the prior advisory, while vertical wind shear over
Erin is forecast to remain low for the next 3-4 days, the
thermodynamic environment is less favorable in the short-term, with
sea-surface temperatures between 26-27C, and plenty of stable
stratocumulus clouds along the forecast path of the storm.
Nonetheless, most of the hurricane-regional models show Erin slowly
intensifying during this period. As the storm moves into warmer
sea-surface temperatures after 48 h, a faster rate of
intensification is anticipated, as long as the shear remains low and
if Eric is able to mix out some of the dry air in its vicinity. The
intensity guidance is actually a little higher than the previous
cycle beyond 60 h, but the latest NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the prior one, showing Erin becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a
major hurricane in 120 h. This forecast is now a little lower than
HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF at the end of the forecast. There are some
indications there might some northwesterly shear impinging on the
cyclone in 96-120 h, so I elected to stay under these aids for this
cycle.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may
bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of
the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the
hurricane season, it is an opportune time to ensure your
preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 17.4N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.4N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.3N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.1N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 17.3N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 17.8N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 18.5N 50.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 20.0N 55.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 22.0N 60.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 112043
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025

...ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 30.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 2155 MI...3465 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 30.3 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next several days with a gradual
slowdown in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days and
Erin could be at hurricane intensity by the latter part of this
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 112042
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC MON AUG 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 30.3W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 30.3W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 29.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.4N 33.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.3N 37.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.1N 40.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.3N 44.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.8N 47.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 55.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 30.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 111447
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 2025

The system we have been monitoring that moved across the Cabo Verde
Islands over the past 6-12 h (Invest 97L) has maintained a small,
but persistent area of deep convection. This activity prompted an
earlier TAFB subjective Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt suggesting the
convection is now sufficently organized to be classified as a
tropical cyclone. We also received scatterometer data at 1107 UTC
with a peak wind retrieval of 39 kt embedded in this convection,
with an ambiguity analysis suggesting the circulation is also
well defined, albeit still somewhat elongated on the eastern edge.
The combination of all this data suggests that a tropical storm has
formed, and NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Erin with
a current intensity of 40 kt.

Erin is moving quickly off to the west, with the motion estimated at
275/17 kt. Over the next few days, this motion should continue with
possibly some slight south-of-due-west motion. Erin's motion is
primarily influenced by an east-to-west oriented mid-level ridge
draped across the subtropical Atlantic basin. By the end of the
forecast period, this ridge may start to become more oriented to the
northeast of Erin, inducing a more poleward motion by 120 h. The
initial NHC track forecast elects to stick fairly close to the HFIP
corrected consensus approach (HCCA), which is a touch on the south
side of the overall track guidance envelope. It should be noted that
spread in the track guidance, especially the ensembles, begins to
increase markedly at the end of the forecast period.

The intensity forecast in the short-term is a little tricky. The
earlier scatterometer data indicate the system has a small
circulation which could be prone to rapid intensity changes, either
up or down. While vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to
be low, between 5-10 kt over the next 72 hours, sea-surface
temperatures are more marginal, around 26-27C, with a decent amount
of dry mid-level air along the path of the tropical storm. The first
NHC intensity forecast will thus only forecast slow intensification
in the short-term, assuming the marginal SSTs and lack of mid-level
moisture will keep the small vortex in check. After 48 h, however,
the SSTs start to gradually increase and should allow the local
environment of Erin to moisten up. Thus, the rate of intensification
will likely increase in the second half of the forecast period. The
NHC intensity forecast is a little on the high side of the guidance
in the short-term, partially due to the initial intensity, but is in
line with the HCCA intensity aid. By 120 h, the hurricane-regional
models (e.g., HWRF/HAFS), and statistical-dynamical aids
(EC-SHIPS/LGEM) show Erin becoming a major hurricane, and that will
be explicitly forecast at the end of the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 17.4N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.5N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 17.1N 41.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 19.6N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 21.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 111444
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 2025

...TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORMS JUST WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 28.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 2305 MI...3710 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 28.0 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next several days.

Earlier satellite wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening
is forecast over the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 111443
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 28.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 28.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 27.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.5N 31.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.1N 38.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.1N 41.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.6N 54.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 21.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 28.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN