Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FERNAND-25
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 280838
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernand Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
900 AM GMT Thu Aug 28 2025

It has now been more than 12 hours since Fernand has produced what
could be considered organized deep convection near its center, and
now that the cyclone has moved north of the Gulf Stream, this
activity is very unlikely to come back. Therefore, Fernand is now
considered a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the final NHC
advisory on the system. The maximum sustained winds have been
lowered to 40 kt, assuming there has been some spin-down of the
winds relative to the earlier scatterometer data, given the lack of
deep convection. The system is continuing to accelerate
east-northeastward, now at 060/20 kt, and this motion should
continue until the post-tropical cyclone opens up into a trough in
about 24-36 hours. This system will ultimately become absorbed by a
larger mid-latitude cyclone forecast to develop in the far North
Atlantic.

Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 41.2N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 28/1800Z 42.7N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/0600Z 44.9N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280836
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernand Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
900 AM GMT Thu Aug 28 2025

...FERNAND BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.2N 42.9W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Fernand was located near latitude 41.2 North, longitude 42.9 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion with some additional increase in
forward speed is forecast until the system opens up into a trough.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to open up
into a trough in 24-36 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 280834
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 42.9W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 42.9W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 42.7N 38.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 44.9N 31.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.2N 42.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 280239
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

The system is producing minimal shower activity at this time, with
only some shallow- to mid-level topped convection and some isolated
deeper cells in a band over the eastern semicircle. In fact, the
cyclone lacks enough convection to be classified by the Dvorak
technique. Unless significant shower and thunderstorm activity
redevelops in the circulation, which seems unlikely due to cooler
ocean waters, Fernand will become a post-tropical cyclone on
Thursday. In spite of its unimpressive cloud appearance, recent
ASCAT-C scatterometer measurements showed peak surface winds of
around 45 kt over the southern part of Fernand's circulation. Some
slight spin-down is likely during the next 24 hours, but the system
is expected to maintain gale-force winds even after it opens up into
a trough by Thursday night or early Friday.

Fernand is accelerating east-northeastward with the motion now
around 060/16 kt. The cyclone should continue to move faster in
about the same direction, within the mid-latitude
west-southwesterly flow ahead of a short-wave trough, until
post-tropical transition. The official forecast is very close to
the dynamical track model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 40.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 41.7N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/0000Z 43.7N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 280238
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 45.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 150SE 150SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 45.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 41.7N 41.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 43.7N 35.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 45.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280238
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

...FERNAND LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 45.5W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 45.5 West. Fernand is
moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a
faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight weakening is expected during the next day or so.
Fernand is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday and then
dissipate by early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 272037
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

Fernand's interaction with a nearby upper-level trough has caused
the cloud pattern to look more like an extratropical cyclone, with
a broad cirrus shield northeast of the center and some leftover
shallow-topped convection in a band within the eastern semicircle.
Still, the system remains non frontal and is holding onto tropical
cyclone status. Maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt based on
ASCAT-C data from around 10 am this morning.

The initial motion is now faster toward the northeast, or 070
degrees at 13 kt. Additional acceleration toward the northeast or
east-northeast is expected during the next day or so with Fernand
now well embedded in mid-latitude westerly flow. The storm is now
passing across the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and sea surface
temperatures beneath the circulation should be down to about 23
degrees Celsius in 12 hours. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite
images suggest that convection should continue to wane over these
colder waters, and Fernand is expected to become post-tropical by
early Thursday. Despite the transition, Fernand is forecast to
maintain gale-force winds, even after it opens up into a trough and
dissipates by Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 39.3N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 40.6N 44.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 28/1800Z 42.7N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 272037
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

...FERNAND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 47.4W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 47.4 West. Fernand is
moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight weakening is expected during the next day or so. Fernand is
forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday and then dissipate by
early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 272036
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
2100 UTC WED AUG 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 47.4W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 80SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 47.4W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 48.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 40.6N 44.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 42.7N 38.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 47.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 271550
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1150 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

...FERNAND A LITTLE STRONGER...

Very recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Fernand has
strengthened slightly, and maximum sustained winds are now near 50
mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

No updates are required to the recently issued forecast.


SUMMARY OF 1150 AM AST...1550 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 49.1W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 271459
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

Fernand's center is exposed to the west of a remaining band of deep
convection, with the circulation itself a bit elongated. Satellite
intensity estimates still encompass a rather large range--from 30
kt to about 45 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, pending
an ASCAT pass which we may not receive until after this advisory is
released.

Since last evening, convection appears to have had a stronger
influence on Fernand's motion compared to the prevailing steering
flow. The 12-hour average motion has been eastward, or 085 degrees
at 10 kt. Assuming the convective influences lessen, the track
models insist that Fernand should resume an acceleration toward the
east-northeast very soon, with that motion continuing for the next
day or two. Fernand is currently over sea surface temperatures of
about 25 degrees Celsius, but it is expected to move over the north
wall of the Gulf Stream later today, with SSTs falling to 23-24
degrees Celsius by this evening. These cooler waters should cause
Fernand's deep convection to gradually decay through the remainder
of the day, and the cyclone could become post-tropical as early as
tonight. Winds are likely to remain at gale force, largely due to
the system's increasing forward speed. Dissipation--when the
circulation opens up into a trough--is likely in 36-48 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 38.4N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 39.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 41.6N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/0000Z 43.6N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 271458
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 49.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 49.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 50.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 39.7N 46.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 41.6N 41.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 43.6N 35.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 49.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 271458
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

...FERNAND LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 49.5W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 49.5 West. Fernand is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An acceleration
toward the east-northeast is expected through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday. Fernand is
likely to become post-tropical by tonight, and dissipate by early
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 270840
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

Fernand continues to sputter along as a lopsided tropical storm,
producing deep convection primarily along its southern semicircle.
This convective activity has not been particularly well organized on
either geostationary or microwave satellite images. In fact,
overnight Proxy-Vis satellite imagery suggests this convective
activity has been stretching the low-level vortex of the tropical
cyclone, making it somewhat elongated. Satellite intensity estimates
this morning have a wide range between 30 kt to 51 kt. Out of
deference to the earlier scatterometer data, Fernand's initial
intensity remains 40 kt this advisory, which is also roughly in the
middle of the various estimates.

The ongoing deep convection appears to be impacting Fernand's
short-term motion, which is east of the prior forecast track, moving
at an estimated 080/10 kt. This motion could persist a little longer
given the tropical cyclone's ongoing convective asymmetry. Still,
Fernand is expected to resume an accelerating east-northeastward
motion later today, caught up in deep-layer southwesterly flow
downstream of a large mid-latitude trough over eastern North
America. Given the short-term motion, the track guidance has shifted
a little east of the prior cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast
has elected to go along the eastern edge of this track envelope,
close to the latest HCCA and EC-AIFS solutions. The ongoing deep
convection has also bought Fernand a little more time as a tropical
cyclone, though probably only another 24 hours since the cyclone
will soon cross a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient as it
passes the north wall of the Gulf Stream. The NHC intensity forecast
shows Fernand becoming post-tropical in about 24 h, and opening up
into a trough and dissipating in 60 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 38.3N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 39.3N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 41.3N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 28/1800Z 43.3N 38.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0600Z 45.2N 30.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 270837
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

...LOPSIDED FERNAND JOGGING A LITTLE EASTWARD...
...STILL FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 50.8W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 50.8 West. Fernand is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h), but is expected to
resume an east-northeastward motion and accelerate over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next 12 hours
or so, but Fernand is still forecast to become post-tropical by
tonight and open up into a trough by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 270836
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 50.8W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 50NE 90SE 80SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 50.8W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 51.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 39.3N 48.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 41.3N 44.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 43.3N 38.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 45.2N 30.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 50.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 270236
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

The deep convection near Fernand's center has persisted through the
evening. Overnight scatterometer data showed reliable wind vectors
up to 39 kt and the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt based on
these data.

Fernand is moving at an estimated 50/10 kt. The storm is expected
to accelerate east-northeastward during the next couple of days as
it moves in the mid-latitude westerlies. Minor updates have been
made to the latest NHC track forecast track which lies near the
corrected consensus model, HCCA. Simulated satellite imagery from
global models suggest that Fernand will lose its deep convection in
the next day or so. Model guidance holds Fernand generally steady
in intensity while it transitions into a post-tropical cyclone.
The official intensity forecast continues to show Fernand becoming
post-tropical by 36 hours and opening into a trough by late this
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 38.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 39.3N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 41.1N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 42.9N 41.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0000Z 44.9N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 270234
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 52.0W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 52.0W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 52.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 39.3N 49.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 41.1N 46.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 42.9N 41.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 44.9N 35.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 52.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 270234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

...FERNAND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 52.0W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 52.0 West. Fernand is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An acceleration
toward the east-northeast is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected on Wednesday,
but Fernand is likely to become post-tropical by Wednesday night.
The low is expected to dissipate by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 262033
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

As mentioned this morning, there was a possibility of deep
convection redeveloping near Fernand's center, and that indeed has
happened. Fernand has therefore maintained tropical cyclone status,
and based on earlier ASCAT data which showed wind of 30-35 kt, the
initial wind speed is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is northeastward, or 045/10 kt. An acceleration
toward the east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days
as Fernand becomes more fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerly
flow. In the short term, Fernand will be moving over a relative
warm eddy of the Gulf Stream, while also remaining in an environment
of low shear. Based on the latest GFS and ECMWF fields, as well as
the HCCA guidance, some slight strengthening appears possible during
the next day or so. This is reflected in the NHC intensity
forecast. Post-tropical transition is predicted by 36 hours, if not
sooner, when the cyclone should finally struggle to maintain
convection over colder waters. The post-tropical cyclone may be
able to maintain its integrity through 48 hours, so an additional
forecast point was added to the official forecast at that time. The
GFS and ECWMF are in very good agreement that the low should open up
into a trough by 60 hours (Thursday night).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 38.1N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 38.8N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 40.1N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 41.8N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/1800Z 43.7N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 262032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

...FERNAND NOT DONE QUITE YET...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 53.4W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 53.4 West. Fernand is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An acceleration
toward the east-northeast is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight restrengthening is possible by Wednesday, but Fernand is
likely to become post-tropical by Wednesday night. The low is
expected to dissipate by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 262032
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 53.4W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 53.4W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 54.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 38.8N 51.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 40.1N 48.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 41.8N 44.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 43.7N 37.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 53.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 261732

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.08.2025

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 116.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2025 0 18.7N 116.5W 995 35
0000UTC 27.08.2025 12 20.5N 118.1W 992 39
1200UTC 27.08.2025 24 22.8N 119.5W 995 39
0000UTC 28.08.2025 36 25.0N 120.9W 999 36
1200UTC 28.08.2025 48 26.2N 121.2W 1006 29
0000UTC 29.08.2025 60 26.4N 121.4W 1009 24
1200UTC 29.08.2025 72 26.4N 121.4W 1012 19
0000UTC 30.08.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 37.4N 54.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2025 0 37.4N 54.9W 1012 37
0000UTC 27.08.2025 12 38.5N 52.7W 1013 33
1200UTC 27.08.2025 24 39.8N 50.6W 1010 33
0000UTC 28.08.2025 36 41.2N 47.3W 1012 32
1200UTC 28.08.2025 48 43.8N 42.0W 1010 32
0000UTC 29.08.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 34.4N 76.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2025 120 34.4N 76.4W 1006 35
0000UTC 01.09.2025 132 36.0N 72.8W 1006 39
1200UTC 01.09.2025 144 37.7N 71.0W 1009 31
0000UTC 02.09.2025 156 40.2N 69.6W 1010 30
1200UTC 02.09.2025 168 42.3N 69.3W 1009 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.2N 174.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2025 132 14.2N 175.3W 1010 23
1200UTC 01.09.2025 144 13.8N 176.3W 1010 22
0000UTC 02.09.2025 156 14.1N 177.4W 1009 22
1200UTC 02.09.2025 168 14.5N 178.2W 1010 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 34.4N 75.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2025 156 34.4N 75.0W 1009 34
1200UTC 02.09.2025 168 34.6N 74.3W 1011 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261732


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 261732

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2025

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 116.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2025 18.7N 116.5W MODERATE
00UTC 27.08.2025 20.5N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2025 22.8N 119.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2025 25.0N 120.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2025 26.2N 121.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2025 26.4N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2025 26.4N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 37.4N 54.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2025 37.4N 54.9W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2025 38.5N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2025 39.8N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2025 41.2N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2025 43.8N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 34.4N 76.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2025 34.4N 76.4W WEAK
00UTC 01.09.2025 36.0N 72.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2025 37.7N 71.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2025 40.2N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2025 42.3N 69.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.2N 174.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2025 14.2N 175.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2025 13.8N 176.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2025 14.1N 177.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2025 14.5N 178.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 34.4N 75.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2025 34.4N 75.0W WEAK
12UTC 02.09.2025 34.6N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261732


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 261553

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLX MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2025

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 116.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2025 19.1N 116.4W MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N 55.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2025 37.3N 55.1W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261553


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 261553

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLX MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.08.2025

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 116.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2025 0 19.1N 116.4W 998 34

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N 55.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2025 0 37.3N 55.1W 1012 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261553


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 261438
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

Fernand has not produced deep convection near its center since
about 2 AM. Based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial
intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. Fernand is moving over
a cool eddy of about 25 degrees Celsius in the Gulf Stream, which
could explain its loss of convection. However, the storm is
expected to move over a warm eddy later this afternoon and evening,
and SHIPS suggests a short period of increased upper-level
divergence as well. These conditions could allow redevelopment of
deep convection, keeping Fernand going as a tropical cyclone for a
bit longer. In fact, both the GFS and ECWMF show this
redevelopment, along with an increase in Fernand's maximum winds by
tomorrow morning. While confidence in this scenario is not
particularly high, the NHC forecast has been modified to show the
potential of slight restrengthening over the next 24 hours, with
post-tropical transition not occurring until 36 hours. Most of the
global models show the circulation opening up into a trough by 48
hours, and that is when dissipation is shown in the official
forecast.

The initial motion is northeastward, or 040/11 kt. A continued
northeastward motion is expected until Fernand dissipates, and no
significant changes were made to the official track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 37.6N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 38.9N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 40.4N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 41.9N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 261437
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

...FERNAND WEAKENING BUT COULD MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 54.6W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 54.6 West. Fernand is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight restrengthening is possible by tonight or early
Wednesday, but Fernand is likely to become post-tropical by
Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 261436
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 54.6W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 54.6W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 55.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.9N 52.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 40.4N 50.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 41.9N 47.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 54.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 260832
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

Fernand continues to be a sheared cyclone this morning. Satellite
images show the low-level center exposed to the north of an area of
dissipating convection with warming cloud tops. Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates are between 30 to 44 kt.
Given the satellite trends, the intensity is lowered to 40 kt for
this advisory.

The storm is moving northeastward or 040/12 kt. A slightly faster
northeastward motion is expected later today within the flow between
a subtropical high to its east and an approaching trough to the
west. The NHC track forecast was shifted slightly to the right, and
lies between the Google Deep Mind and HCCA corrected consensus.

Fernand is expected to continue weakening, as satellite water vapor
imagery depicts the system is moving into a drier environment and
SHIPS mid-level RH values remain below 50 percent. The storm is also
moving over cooler sea surface temperatures, and into higher wind
shear along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous, which shows gradual weakening as the system
spins down, and Fernand will likely become post-tropical cyclone
tonight or early Wednesday. The cyclone is expected to open into a
trough by 48 h and dissipate.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 37.0N 55.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 38.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 39.9N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 27/1800Z 41.5N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 260832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

...FERNAND A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 55.2W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 55.2 West. Fernand is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slightly
faster northeast motion is anticipated over the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is likely, and Fernand is
likely to become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight or early
Wednesday before dissipating on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 260831
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 55.2W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 55.2W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 55.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 38.3N 53.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 39.9N 50.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 41.5N 47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 55.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 260233
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

Fernand has lost organization over the past several hours. The
center is completely exposed, and convection is confined to a small
area south of the center due to northerly vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity is lowered a little to 45 kt, which lies near the
high end of the latest satellite estimates. This intensity value is
in good agreement with a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed 35 to
40 kt winds on the eastern side of the system. Continued weakening
is expected due to sharply cooler waters, dry air, and moderate to
strong shear. Fernand will likely become post-tropical in about 24
hours, if not sooner, and is expected to open into a trough in a
couple of days.

The storm is moving northeastward at 11 kt. A slightly faster
northeastward motion in the flow between a subtropical high to its
east and a large trough to the west is expected until Fernand
dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one,
and lies near the Google Deep Mind and HCCA models, which have been
performing well for this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 36.1N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 37.5N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 39.6N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 27/1200Z 41.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 260232
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 56.3W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 56.3W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.5N 54.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 39.6N 52.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 41.8N 49.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 56.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 260232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

...FERNAND BEGINS TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 56.3W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 56.3 West. Fernand is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly
faster northeast motion is anticipated over the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is likely, and Fernand could
become a post-tropical cyclone before dissipating on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 252033
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

The center of Fernand has become exposed this afternoon with
bursting convection continuing well south of the center. The
initial intensity will remain 50 kt on this package per continuity
from earlier scatterometer winds, but if convection doesn't
redevelop soon near the center, this is probably a generous
estimate. Weakening should begin soon regardless with increasing
shear and cooler waters in the path of the storm. Fernand is
forecast to become post-tropical early on Wednesday due to a lack of
convection, but it wouldn't be surprising if that transition
happened sooner. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an
update of the previous one, near the model consensus.

The initial motion is north-northeast or 030/12 kt. A general
north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected with some
increase in speed during the rest of Fernand's life due to steering
from the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude trough. Models are
trending toward a slower and rightward solution, suggesting a weaker
storm will not feel the approaching mid-latitude trough as much.
The new official forecast is shifted south of the previous one,
closer to the Google Deep Mind model, which has had a very good
performance so far for this cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 35.3N 57.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 36.8N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 38.7N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 40.5N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 27/1800Z 43.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 252033
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 57.2W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 57.2W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 57.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 36.8N 56.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 38.7N 53.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 40.5N 51.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 43.0N 48.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 57.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 252033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

...FERNAND FORECAST TO START WEAKENING TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 57.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 57.2 West. Fernand is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a
general track in that direction or to the north-northeast is
anticipated for the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
Fernand should move across the open waters of the subtropical
central Atlantic well northeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is likely to begin tonight, and Fernand could
become a post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday before dissipating on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 251455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

...FERNAND STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 57.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 57.8 West. Fernand is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a
turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should move
across the open waters of the subtropical central Atlantic well east
and northeast of Bermuda.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is anticipated today, followed by gradual weakening on
Tuesday, and Fernand is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone
on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 251455
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 57.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 57.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 58.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 36.0N 56.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 38.5N 54.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 44.0N 48.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 57.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 251457
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

A large burst of persistent convection remains in the southeastern
quadrant of Fernand, with 1-minute GOES-19 visible imagery
suggesting that the low-level center is positioned on the
northwestern edge of the burst. Scatterometer data indicate that
the maximum winds have increased to about 50 kt, so that will be
the initial intensity. Little change in strength is anticipated
today, followed by weakening commencing tomorrow due to Fernand
reaching cooler waters with increasing shear. The model envelope
is fairly narrow, and the new NHC intensity forecast is quite
similar to the previous one and the model consensus.

The initial motion is north-northeast or 025/12 kt. A general
north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected with some
increase in forward speed during the remainder of the cyclone's
life due to steering from the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude
trough. There are some differences on whether Fernand is picked up
by the trough, like the GFS solution, or more shunted to the
southeast, displayed by the ECMWF/Google Deep Mind solutions. The
official forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope,
closer to the latter models and the previous NHC forecast.
Post-tropical transition is expected on Wednesday due to cold
waters, with a fast dissipation by Thursday as the weak cyclone
opens up into a trough.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 34.2N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 36.0N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 38.5N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 44.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 250842
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

Fernand continues to produce a concentrated area of convection
near and to the south of the center, although recent AMSR2 and GMI
microwave overpasses show some separation between the center and
the convection. There are also ragged outer convective bands in
the northeastern semicircle. The various satellite intensity
estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and they have not changed much
during the past 6 h. Based on this, the initial intensity remains
45 kt.

The initial motion remains north-northeast or 025/10 kt. Fernand is
being steered around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge and is moving into the southern portion of the mid-latitude
westerlies. A general north-northeastward to northeastward motion
is expected with some increase in forward speed during the
remainder of the cyclone's life. The latest track guidance has
shifted a little to the left or northwest, and the new forecast
track thus lies a little to the left of the previous forecast.
Overall, the new forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA
corrected consensus.

Fernand is almost out of time to strengthen. It is approaching an
area of increasing shear, and after 12 h sea surface temperatures
decrease along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast will
show a little more strengthening today, followed by a weakening
trend as Fernand moves into the less favorable environment. The
cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by 48 h over cold water,
and it is now forecast to degenerate to a trough by 60 h in
agreement with the global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 33.7N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 35.3N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 40.3N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 43.6N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 250841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

...FERNAND MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 58.8W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 58.8 West. Fernand is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h)and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a
turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should move
across the open waters of the subtropical central Atlantic well east
and northeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today. Weakening is expected to
begin tonight, and Fernand is expected to become post-tropical on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 250841
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 58.8W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 58.8W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 59.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.3N 57.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 40.3N 53.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 43.6N 49.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 58.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 250235
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

Fernand continues to produce bursts of convection near the low-level
center, with cold cloud tops notes in satellite images. Microwave
imagery shows an improving structure with curved banding and a small
inner core trying to become established. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates range between 40 to 50 kt. Using a
blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

The initial motion remains north-northeast at an estimated motion of
025/11 kt. The system is being steered around the western periphery
of a subtropical ridge. This north-northeast to northeast motion is
anticipated throughout the forecast period as the system is steered
around the ridge and into the mid-latitude southwesterlies, with an
increase is forward speed. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the
previous, and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and Google
DeepMind aids.

Fernand is forecast to gradually strengthen during the 12-24h, as
the system remains over warm water and light wind shear. However,
there is some drier mid-level air depicted via satellite and latest
SHIPS guidance, which may hinder convective organization at times.
By late Monday or Tuesday, vertical wind shear begins to increase
and sea surface temperatures decrease significantly along the
forecast track. This will cause the system to weaken, and become
post-tropical on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, and remains near the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 32.6N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 34.0N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 36.2N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 38.7N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 44.4N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 250234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

...FERNAND A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 59.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 59.3 West. Fernand is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a
turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should move
across the open waters of the subtropical central Atlantic well east
and northeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated through tomorrow,
with weakening likely to begin late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 250233
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 59.3W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 120SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 59.3W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 59.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 34.0N 58.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 36.2N 56.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 38.7N 54.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 44.4N 47.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 242032
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

Fernand continues to become better organized on satellite imagery
with a more circular central dense overcast and a curved banding
feature in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates
are slightly higher, so the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt.
Further intensification is anticipated during the next day or so
while Fernand remains in a warm water and light shear environment,
tempered by plentiful environmental dry air. Around Tuesday, shear
should increase, along with a decrease in SSTs. This should cause
weakening, and the storm will likely become post- tropical on
Wednesday. No significant change to the previous forecast was made,
and the latest NHC prediction is close to a blend of the previous
one and the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is 025/11 kt. The storm is likely to move to the
north-northeast then northeast at a faster forward speed during the
next day or two as the steering flow gradually shifts from the
subtropical ridge to the mid-latitude southwesterlies. There is
more spread in the model guidance than the last cycle, seemingly due
to the forecast depth of the storm. Generally the models are a
little slower, perhaps because Fernand isn't expected to be as
strong (and presumably won't feel faster upper-level flow as much).
The new NHC forecast follows the trend of the guidance, a bit slower
than the past advisory, and just south of the HFIP Corrected
Consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 31.8N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 33.2N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 35.1N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 40.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 43.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 242031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

...FERNAND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 59.8W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 59.8 West. Fernand is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, followed
by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should
move across the open waters of the subtropical central Atlantic well
east and northeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated through
tomorrow, with weakening likely to begin on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 242030
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 59.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 59.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 60.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.2N 58.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.1N 57.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 40.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 43.0N 49.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 59.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 241456
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

Fernand has become a bit better organized during the past few
hours. Convection has reformed with a banding pattern around the
center, with some expanding outflow. Satellite intensity estimates
are about the same as before, so the initial intensity will remain
35 kt, though some of the objective estimates have recently
increased.

The storm has been moving through an environment that is somewhat
drier with more shear than anticipated. Consequently, Fernand
has changed little overnight. The environment still should support
some gradual strengthening, which is the general idea of the model
guidance. The new NHC forecast is about the same as the last one,
with a similar peak occuring on Monday, perhaps a bit sooner than
earlier thinking. Decreasing SSTs and increasing shear should
cause weakening later on Tuesday, with extratropical transition
anticipated early Wednesday and a quick dissipation on Thursday.

The initial motion is 020/13 kt. Fernand is forecast to move
on this general course for the next couple of days around the
northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. The storm will likely
be embedded in the mid-latitude flow by late Tuesday, causing a
faster track to the northeast. While the model guidance remains in
good agreement, guidance has been shifting eastward to time, which
the Google Deep Mind (GDMI) model first sniffed out yesterday. The
new NHC forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope
and is east of the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 31.0N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 32.6N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 34.8N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 36.9N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 39.3N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 42.0N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 44.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 241455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

...FERNAND PASSING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA HEADED TOWARD THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 60.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 60.0 West. Fernand is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, followed
by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should
move across the open waters of the subtropical North Atlantic well
east and northeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
though a weakening trend is expected by late Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 241454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 60.0W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 60.0W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.6N 59.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 34.8N 57.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 36.9N 56.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 39.3N 54.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 42.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 44.5N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 60.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 240834
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

...FERNAND CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 60.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 60.7 West. Fernand is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, followed
by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should
move well east of Bermuda and across the open waters of the
subtropical North Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. A
weakening trend is expected by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 240834
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

Convection associated with Fernand remains poorly organized this
morning, with a cluster near and just west of the center and a very
ragged outer band in the northern semicircle. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain in
the 35-40 kt range, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 015/13 kt. As mentioned previously, Fernand
is being steered around the western edge of the subtropical ridge,
which will cause the storm to move north-northeastward during the
next day or two. The system will then turn more northeastward and
accelerate within the mid-latitude westerly flow between the ridge
and an approaching trough. While the model guidance remains in good
agreement with this scenario, the guidance envelop has shifted a
little to the east since the previous advisory, Thus, the new
forecast track is a little east of the previous track.

Fernand should remain over warm sea surface temperatures and in
a light shear environment for the next 36 h or so. However,
mid-level dry air near the cyclone may slow the development. The
intensity guidance has again trended downward, and the new forecast
peak intensity of 50 kt is near the upper edge of the guidance.
After 36 h, cooler water, increasing shear, and increased dry-air
entrainment should cause weakening, and Fernand is now forecast to
become post-tropical by 72 hr. The global models are in good
agreement that the system should degenerate to a trough by 96 h,
and the official forecast shows dissipation by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 29.7N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 31.3N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 35.7N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 40.9N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 44.3N 49.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 240833
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 60.7W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 105SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 60.7W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 61.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.3N 60.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.7N 57.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 40.9N 53.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 44.3N 49.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 60.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 240232
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025

Fernand is still trying to become better organized this evening. A
recent scatterometer pass around 0052 UTC depicted a peak wind speed
around 31 kt, southeast of the center. Latest satellite images show
there has been a recent burst in the last few hours over the
low-level center, although some of the outer rain bands have
diminished. Subjective and objective intensity estimates remain
around 35-40 kt. Using a blend of the estimates and recent satellite
trends, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The lastest motion is north-northeast at 015/14. Fernand is being
steered around the western edge of the subtropical ridge, which will
cause the storm to move north-northeastward during the next few
days. The system will then turn more northeastward within the flow
between the ridge and an approaching trough, and accelerate over the
north Atlantic. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement and the
latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, near the
corrected-consensus HCCA.

Fernand is within a favorable environment for intensification, with
warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear. However, models
depict some mid-level dry air near it, which may hinder the
strengthening rate and structure. The intensity guidance has come
down slightly this cycle, and the latest NHC forecast follows those
trends with a peak intensity now at 55 kt, on the higher end of the
guidance envelope. The storm should begin to weaken as SSTs cool and
wind shear increases by day 3, and the system will likely become
post-tropical by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 28.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 30.6N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 32.9N 59.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 35.0N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 37.4N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 40.0N 55.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 43.0N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 49.0N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 240231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
0300 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 61.2W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 105SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 61.2W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 61.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.6N 60.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.9N 59.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.0N 58.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 37.4N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 40.0N 55.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 43.0N 51.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 49.0N 40.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 61.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 240231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025

...FERNAND MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 61.2W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 61.2 West. Fernand is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed
by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should
move well east of Bermuda and across the open waters of the
subtropical North Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. A
weakening trend is expected by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 232045
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025

The trough of low pressure (AL90) located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda has become better organized today. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined
center during the past couple of hours, with a central pressure of
about 1010 mb. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt, based on
earlier scatterometer data which had a few believable
tropical-storm-force wind vectors, and a Dvorak classification of
35 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion is north or 010/13 kt. A north-northeastward
motion is anticipated during the next couple of days with a slow
increase in forward speed due to Fernand moving around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge. The storm will likely
accelerate to the northeast thereafter as the system gets caught up
in faster mid-latitude flow, well to the southeast of Newfoundland.
The global models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance, closest to the
HFIP Corrected- Consensus Model (HCCA).

Fernand has about 48 hours over warm waters within generally light
shear to intensify. There is a fair bit of mid-level dry air,
however, which could hinder any rapid strengthening, so the
intensity forecast will just show a more gradual increase in winds.
All of the models peak the system as an upper-end tropical storm or
category 1 hurricane, and the NHC forecast is just shy of a
hurricane as a peak. After Monday, Fernand should weaken due
to the influences of cooler waters and increasing shear, and the
storm will likely become post-tropical in 3-4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 27.2N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 31.4N 60.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 35.8N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 41.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 232043
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 61.4W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 61.4 West. Fernand is
moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north-
northeastward motion at a gradually increasing forward speed is
anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to
the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should move well east
of Bermuda and across the open waters of the subtropical North
Atlantic.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, and Fernand could be near hurricane
strength on Monday. Weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 232042
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025
2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 61.4W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 61.4W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.8N 58.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 41.3N 54.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 61.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE