Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JULIETTE-25 Off-shore from 24 Aug 2025 21:00 UTC to 28 Aug 2025 09:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JULIETTE-25

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

28/08 08:35 WTPZ45KNHC280835

28/08 08:35 WTPZ35KNHC280833

28/08 08:34 WTPZ25KNHC280833

28/08 02:42 WTPZ45KNHC280238

28/08 02:38 WTPZ35KNHC280237

28/08 02:37 WTPZ25KNHC280236

27/08 20:37 WTPZ35KNHC272035

27/08 20:36 WTPZ45KNHC272036

27/08 20:35 WTPZ25KNHC272035

27/08 16:06 WTNT82EGRR271606

27/08 16:06 WTNT80EGRR271605

27/08 14:36 WTPZ35KNHC271435

27/08 14:36 WTPZ45KNHC271435

27/08 14:35 WTPZ25KNHC271434

27/08 08:36 WTPZ45KNHC270835

27/08 08:35 WTPZ35KNHC270833

27/08 08:33 WTPZ25KNHC270832

27/08 03:58 WTNT80EGRR270358

27/08 03:00 WTPN31PHNC270400

27/08 02:41 WTPZ45KNHC270240

27/08 02:39 WTPZ35KNHC270238

27/08 02:38 WTPZ25KNHC270237

26/08 21:01 WTPN31PHNC262200

26/08 20:35 WTPZ45KNHC262034

26/08 20:34 WTPZ35KNHC262033

26/08 20:32 WTPZ25KNHC262032

26/08 15:08 WTPN31PHNC261600

26/08 14:34 WTPZ35KNHC261432

26/08 14:34 WTPZ45KNHC261433

26/08 14:33 WTPZ25KNHC261432

26/08 09:21 WTPN31PHNC261000

26/08 08:37 WTPZ45KNHC260836

26/08 08:35 WTPZ35KNHC260834

26/08 08:35 WTPZ25KNHC260834

26/08 03:59 WTNT82EGRR260359

26/08 03:03 WTPN31PHNC260400

26/08 02:33 WTPZ45KNHC260232

26/08 02:33 WTPZ35KNHC260231

26/08 02:31 WTPZ25KNHC260231

25/08 21:27 WTPN31PHNC252200

25/08 20:33 WTPZ35KNHC252031

25/08 20:32 WTPZ45KNHC252032

25/08 20:32 WTPZ25KNHC252031

25/08 15:15 WTPN31PHNC251600

25/08 15:03 WTPZ25KNHC251503CCA

25/08 14:39 WTPZ35KNHC251437

25/08 14:39 WTPZ45KNHC251438

25/08 14:38 WTPZ25KNHC251437

25/08 09:27 WTPN31PHNC251000

25/08 08:37 WTPZ35KNHC250835

25/08 08:36 WTPZ45KNHC250835

25/08 08:35 WTPZ25KNHC250834

25/08 03:14 WTPN31PHNC250400

25/08 02:34 WTPZ35KNHC250232

25/08 02:34 WTPZ45KNHC250233

25/08 02:33 WTPZ25KNHC250232

24/08 21:32 WTPN31PHNC242200

24/08 20:34 WTPZ35KNHC242032

24/08 20:34 WTPZ45KNHC242033

24/08 20:33 WTPZ25KNHC242032

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280835
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2025

JULIETTE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS, WITH
ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, COOLER WATERS, AND A DRY, STABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. A 0522 UTC ASCAT-B
PASS SHOWED PEAK WINDS NEAR 30 KT, ALTHOUGH IT DID NOT SAMPLE THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THESE DATA AND THE LACK OF
CONVECTION, JULIETTE IS NOW CONSIDERED A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. GIVEN THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT, REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, AND THIS WILL BE THE
FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM.

THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD, OR 350/7 KT, INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE REMNANT LOW WILL GRADUALLY BEND LEFTWARD AS
IT BECOMES STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, POTENTIALLY INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 25.4N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 28/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/0600Z 26.9N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280833
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...JULIETTE HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 120.8W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Juliette was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 120.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13
km/h). The remnant low will continue northward during the next 24
hours, with a reduction in forward speed expected.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected
to dissipate in 36 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280833
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 120.8W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 120.8W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 120.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280238
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Juliettes low-level circulation is now
fully exposed southwest of a diminishing area of convection, which
has been fading quickly under persistent southwesterly shear and a
dry mid- to upper-level environment. A 1719 UTC ASCAT-C pass
indicated peak winds near 40 kt, consistent with the latest
objective and subjective intensity estimates, so the initial
intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Further weakening is
anticipated as Juliette remains embedded in increasing shear, cool
waters, and a stable, dry environment. The system is expected to
transition into a remnant low late Thursday and dissipate within a
couple of days.

Juliette is moving north-northwestward, or 330/8 kt, into a weakness
in the subtropical ridge. The forecast track has been nudged
slightly to the left of the previous advisory and lies close to the
consensus aids. As Juliette degenerates into a shallow system, most
of the global models indicate the remnant low will gradually bend
leftward while becoming steered primarily by the low-level flow by
the weekend.

Global models also suggest that residual mid- to upper-level
moisture associated with Juliette will lift northeastward over
portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States,
potentially increasing rainfall chances.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 24.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 25.9N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 26.9N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1200Z 27.3N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280237
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2025

...JULIETTE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 120.7W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TO
THE NORTH AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW LATE THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280236
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 120.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 120.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 120.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.9N 121.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.9N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 272035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 120.2W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 120.2 West. Juliette is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to
the north and a reduction in forward speed is expected on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to degenerate into
a remnant low by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 272036
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2025

GOES-18 IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE, AND THE CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY
ARE GRADUALLY WARMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION
ABOUT 70 N MI WIDE IN THE NE QUADRANT, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
CURRENTLY AT THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0/45 KT,
WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE A WIDER RANGE
(35-50 KT). A 1719 UTC ASCAT-C PASS OVER THE CYCLONE SHOWED SEVERAL
34-36 KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JULIETTE IS MOVING OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24C, AND
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH WATER TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 22C
IN 6-12 H. JULIETTE IS ALSO NOW REACHING AN AREA OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, ALONG WITH A DRIER, STABLE LOW- TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS WILL CAUSE
JULIETTE TO CONTINUE WEAKENING, AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 H. AFTERWARD, JULIETTE SHOULD OPEN INTO A
TROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING
SHOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330/12
KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 H WHILE JULIETTE
MOVES FURTHER INTO A GROWING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE ON
THURSDAY, A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED WHILE
BEING STEERED BY THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.

GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT RESIDUAL MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED TOWARD PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., POTENTIALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
AND ENHANCING LOCAL MONSOONAL RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 23.9N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 25.2N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 27.3N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 27.8N 120.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 272035
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
2100 UTC WED AUG 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 120.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 120.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 120.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.2N 120.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.6N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.3N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.8N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 120.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.08.2025

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 38.5N 50.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2025 0 38.5N 50.0W 1006 42
0000UTC 28.08.2025 12 39.7N 46.9W 1007 36
1200UTC 28.08.2025 24 41.4N 42.4W 1009 36
0000UTC 29.08.2025 36 43.5N 36.3W 1009 36
1200UTC 29.08.2025 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 119.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2025 0 22.5N 119.4W 1000 34
0000UTC 28.08.2025 12 24.2N 120.7W 1003 32
1200UTC 28.08.2025 24 25.6N 121.2W 1008 24
0000UTC 29.08.2025 36 26.2N 121.4W 1010 18
1200UTC 29.08.2025 48 26.4N 121.4W 1013 17
0000UTC 30.08.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.7N 124.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2025 84 16.7N 124.5W 1006 28
1200UTC 31.08.2025 96 17.3N 126.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 01.09.2025 108 17.8N 128.4W 1008 30
1200UTC 01.09.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271605

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 271605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.08.2025

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 38.5N 50.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2025 38.5N 50.0W WEAK
00UTC 28.08.2025 39.7N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2025 41.4N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2025 43.5N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 119.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2025 22.5N 119.4W MODERATE
00UTC 28.08.2025 24.2N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2025 25.6N 121.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2025 26.2N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2025 26.4N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.7N 124.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2025 16.7N 124.5W WEAK
12UTC 31.08.2025 17.3N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2025 17.8N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271605

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 271435
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2025

...JULIETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 119.5W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.5 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 271435
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2025

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT
JULIETTE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE WHILE THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SURFACE CENTER. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB (40-50 KT) AND A
RECENT UW-CIMSS SATCON ANALYSIS OF 48 KT YIELD AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JULIETTE IS TRAVERSING A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
(LESS THAN 24 C) WHILE MOVING INTO A DRIER, STABLE LOW- TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THESE NEGATIVE
CONTRIBUTIONS, ALONG WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN JULIETTE AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HRS, IF NOT SOONER. AFTERWARD, JULIETTE
SHOULD OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY FRIDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330/11
KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN ON THURSDAY EVENING, WHILE JULIETTE
MOVES FURTHER INTO A GROWING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.

GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT RESIDUAL MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED TOWARD PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., POTENTIALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
AND ENHANCING LOCAL MONSOONAL RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 271434
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 119.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 119.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.4N 120.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 120.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.1N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.8N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 119.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270835
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2025

JULIETTE STILL HAS A RELATIVELY HEALTHY PRESENTATION THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH A SMALL, BUT SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER. HOWEVER, THESE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE
WARMING AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
OCEAN WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING, AND WE ALSO RECEIVED A HELPFUL METOP-C
ASCAT PASS AT 0451 UTC WHICH ONLY HAD A PEAK WIND RETRIEVAL OF 36
KT IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 45 KT THIS ADVISORY, ASSUMING SOME
SCATTEROMETER UNDERSAMPLING OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, ESTIMATED AT
330/11 KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A
LITTLE MORE RIGHTWARD TURN AS JULIETTE IS STEERED POLEWARD THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES VERTICALLY
SHALLOW, ITS FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT BECOMES
MORE STEERED BY THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THIS PART
OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST THIS CYCLE
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ONE, OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE
EASTWARD SHIFT AFTER JULIETTE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. THIS FORECAST
REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

JULIETTE'S TROPICAL CYCLONE STORY IS FADING AS IT MOVES OVER
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25C WHICH COOL FURTHER OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LOW, IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS, STRIPPING AWAY THE STORM'S
REMAINING CONVECTION BY THAT TIME. THUS, JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 H. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD
ULTIMATELY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

EVEN AS JULIETTE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW, SOME OF ITS MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED POLEWARD TOWARDS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., WHICH COULD HELP TO
ENHANCE LOCAL MONSOONAL RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS IN THE LATTER HALF
OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 21.9N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 23.3N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 25.0N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 26.3N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z 27.5N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270833
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...JULIETTE FADING AS IT MOVES INTO THE COOL OCEAN WATERS OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 118.8W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 118.8 West. Juliette is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general
north-northwestward to northward motion with a slowdown in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Juliette is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270832
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 118.8W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 118.8W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 118.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.0N 120.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.3N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 270358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.08.2025

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 38.0N 52.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2025 38.0N 52.6W WEAK
12UTC 27.08.2025 38.8N 49.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2025 40.6N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2025 42.5N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2025 44.5N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 117.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2025 20.3N 117.8W MODERATE
12UTC 27.08.2025 22.5N 119.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2025 24.2N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2025 25.5N 121.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2025 25.9N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2025 26.1N 121.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270358

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 270400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 20.4N 117.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 117.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.3N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.0N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.4N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.2N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 26.8N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.4N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270400Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 118.2W.
27AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 739
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270240
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025

JULIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY,
BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED. MOST OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
IN A SMALL CLUSTER JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5/3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND AN OBJECTIVE
DPRINT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS.

THE STORM CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TREK WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE
OF ABOUT 325/10 KT. JULIETTE IS MOVING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. IN 48 HOURS,
THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE, BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

JULIETTE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING A STRONG GRADIENT OF SSTS AND IS
HEADED FOR MUCH COOLER WATERS. THIS, ALONG WITH DRIER LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL AIR AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE DSHIPS, LGEM, AND HCCA NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FUTURE ENVIRONMENT, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN EVEN
FASTER THEN INDICATED HERE.

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE OR ITS
REMNANTS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 20.9N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.3N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 24.0N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 25.4N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 26.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 26.8N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 27.4N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025

...JULIETTE LIKELY TO COMMENCE WEAKENING SOON...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 118.1W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JULIETTE WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW NIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270237
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 118.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 118.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 119.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 120.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.4N 120.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.2N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.8N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.4N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 118.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 262200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 116.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 116.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.0N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.7N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.2N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.2N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 26.0N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.5N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262200Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 117.3W.
26AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 792
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270400Z, 271000Z, 271600Z AND 272200Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 262034
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025

THE CENTER OF JULIETTE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE AREA, AS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. OVERALL, THE STRUCTURE
APPEARS SIMILAR TO, BUT SLIGHTLY DEGRADED COMPARED TO, THE SYSTEM'S
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 6 H AGO. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE, AND THE
LATEST FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 3.5 (55 KT). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE NEXT 24-30 H, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26C
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ISOTHERM BY HOUR 12, AND WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME ALONG ITS PATH.
JULIETTE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
12-24 H, BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER COLDER WATER AND THROUGH DRIER AIR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 24 H, BUT LIES IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER. BEYOND 36 H,
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS JULIETTE MOVES CLOSER TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WELL TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING
SHEAR, ALONG WITH THE COLD SSTS AND DRY AIR, SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 2
DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN AND
DISSIPATING IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

JULIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWEST, OR 325/9 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
JULIETTE MOVES IN BETWEEN TWO STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGES, ONE LOCATED
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE OTHER LOCATED WELL TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. JULIETTE SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE
NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT TO THE GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
MEAN, BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS SOME OF THE OTHER
CONSENSUS MODELS LIKE THE TCVE AND HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 19.9N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.7N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 25.2N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z 26.0N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 26.5N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 262033
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025

...JULIETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 117.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A SLOWER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND
JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 262032
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.2W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.2W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 116.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.7N 119.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.2N 120.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.2N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.0N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 261600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 116.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 116.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.1N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.6N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.9N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.0N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.8N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 25.6N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 116.7W.
26AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 841
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND 271600Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 116.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 116.5 West. Juliette is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
north-northwestward motion is expected late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although not explicitly shown in the NHC
forecast, Juliette could briefly become a hurricane today
before a weakening trend commences on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported
at Clarion Island, Colima, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 261433
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT GPM/GMI MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR AND TO THE EAST
OF THE SURFACE CENTER, AND THE GPM IMAGE REVEALED AN IMPRESSIVE
TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
BASED ON THE CYCLONE'S IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN AND THE SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
NUDGED UPWARD TO 60 KT.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST, THERE'S STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT JULIETTE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY, AND A COUPLE OF THE HURRICANE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS AS
WELL. BY WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHILE
JULIETTE TRAVERSES PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEANIC SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOVES INTO A MORE INHIBITING SURROUNDING
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. JULIETTE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND RESEMBLES THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID.

JULIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR
320/9 KT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A SLOWER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A GROWING WEAKNESS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS CLOSE TO THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 22.9N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 24.8N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 25.6N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 261432
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.5W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.5W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 117.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.9N 120.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.8N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.6N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 261000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 115.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 115.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.3N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.8N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.4N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.6N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.6N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.3N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
261000Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 116.4W.
26AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 884
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260836
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025

JULIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT
WITH CURVED BANDING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIETTE IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP A
SMALL INNER CORE, WHICH HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. UNFORTUNATELY, SCATTEROMETER MISSED TONIGHT GIVEN
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IT FELL WITHIN THE DATA GAP. THERE IS A
BIT OF A RANGE FROM SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THIS CYCLE BETWEEN 44 TO 65 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT 55 KT.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
290/ 11 KT. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM BETWEEN THE
CONSENSUS AIDS ON THE RIGHT WITH GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND EMXI ON THE
LEFT.

JULIETTE SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT
18-24 H , WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS WIND SHEAR ALSO INCREASES IN ABOUT 48 H. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS, AND SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TODAY, ALTHOUGH SINCE THE INNER CORE HAS NOT
ESTABLISHED, THE PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS THEN FORECAST BETWEEN 24-36
H, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING BEYOND 36 H. JULIETTE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 60 H, BEFORE OPENING INTO A
TROUGH AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 18.3N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 20.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 23.6N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 24.6N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z 25.3N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260834
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2025

...JULIETTE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 116.3W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
SLOWER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, A
WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.6N 121.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.6N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.3N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 260359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.08.2025

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 35.6N 56.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2025 0 35.6N 56.9W 1012 35
1200UTC 26.08.2025 12 37.3N 55.1W 1012 34
0000UTC 27.08.2025 24 38.8N 52.9W 1014 30
1200UTC 27.08.2025 36 40.8N 50.4W 1012 35
0000UTC 28.08.2025 48 42.7N 47.3W 1013 28
1200UTC 28.08.2025 60 45.2N 42.7W 1012 25
0000UTC 29.08.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 115.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2025 0 17.7N 115.3W 998 34
1200UTC 26.08.2025 12 19.1N 116.4W 998 34
0000UTC 27.08.2025 24 21.1N 118.0W 996 36
1200UTC 27.08.2025 36 23.3N 119.5W 999 36
0000UTC 28.08.2025 48 25.4N 120.3W 1003 35
1200UTC 28.08.2025 60 26.3N 120.4W 1008 24
0000UTC 29.08.2025 72 26.4N 120.0W 1011 21
1200UTC 29.08.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.6N 148.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2025 0 11.6N 148.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 26.08.2025 12 12.0N 150.2W 1008 25
0000UTC 27.08.2025 24 12.5N 153.5W 1009 27
1200UTC 27.08.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 37.2N 1.1E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2025 24 37.2N 1.1E 1007 24
1200UTC 27.08.2025 36 39.9N 2.8E 1004 23
0000UTC 28.08.2025 48 41.7N 4.7E 1003 31
1200UTC 28.08.2025 60 44.4N 7.8E 1003 28
0000UTC 29.08.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 34.5N 68.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2025 96 34.5N 68.2W 1012 33
1200UTC 30.08.2025 108 36.1N 64.9W 1011 28
0000UTC 31.08.2025 120 36.8N 62.4W 1014 19
1200UTC 31.08.2025 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.3N 178.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2025 144 14.3N 178.8W 1010 22
1200UTC 01.09.2025 156 13.9N 179.8E 1009 26
0000UTC 02.09.2025 168 14.2N 178.6E 1009 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.0N 69.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2025 168 36.0N 69.9W 1011 36

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260358

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 260400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 115.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 115.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.5N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.8N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.3N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.8N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.0N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.9N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.6N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260400Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 115.7W.
26AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 918
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260232
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2025

JULIETTE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. A MICROWAVE PASS FROM A FEW HOURS
AGO SUGGESTED THAT THE STORM WAS DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE, AND
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE
INCREASING SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB, SAB,
AND CIMSS HAVE ALL INCREASED TO 3.5/55 KT, AND THEREFORE, THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO THAT VALUE.

JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO STRENGTHEN
FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY, AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD END BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26 C SST
ISOTHERM AND THEN MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF DRIER AIR AND STRONGER
SHEAR. JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS
WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER COOL 22 C WATERS, AND DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY THIS WEEKEND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
HCCA AND IVCN MODELS.

THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A NOTABLE REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS JULIETTE MOVES TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH EMXI AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.8N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.8N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 22.8N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 24.9N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 25.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260231
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025

...JULIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 115.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. Juliette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn
toward the northwest is forecast by Tuesday night, followed by a
slower north-northwestward motion beginning late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Juliette could become a hurricane on Tuesday. Weakening is expected
to begin on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. An automated Mexican Navy station on Clarion
Island recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a
gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260231
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.5W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.5W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.8N 120.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.9N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 25.6N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 114.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 114.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.3N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.3N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.6N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.2N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.5N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.5N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.7N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 114.7W.
25AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 939
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 252031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
200 PM MST Mon Aug 25 2025

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 114.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 114.5 West. Juliette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn
toward the northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, followed by a
slower north-northwestward motion beginning late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Juliette has the potential to become a hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. An automated Mexican navy station on Clarion
Island recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a
gust to 50 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 252032
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 PM MST MON AUG 25 2025

A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED THAT JULIETTE IS NOW
PRODUCING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 50 KT WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED BENEATH A PERSISTENT BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT INTERESTINGLY, THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO BEEN
PRODUCING ANOTHER SEMI-DISCONNECTED BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. JULIETTE HAS ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS BEFORE
IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM, AND JULIETTE
DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE. IN FACT, THE
LATEST SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES ARE SHOWING A 40-45
PERCENT CHANGE OF A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY. THE NHC
FORECAST THEREFORE EXPLICITLY SHOWS JULIETTE BECOMING A HURRICANE
IN 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN IN 36 HOURS, AND
JULIETTE COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS WHEN IT LOSES
ITS DEEP CONVECTION. DISSIPATION INTO A TROUGH IS LIKELY BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (290 DEGREES) AT 12 KT.
DUE TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
AND TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, JULIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY, AND THEN
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE NHC LARGELY FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND MODEL, BUT
OVERALL THERE ISN'T MUCH SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.6N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.3N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 20.6N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 22.2N 120.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 29/1800Z 25.7N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 252031
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.6N 119.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 25.7N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 114.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 112.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 112.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.9N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.8N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.1N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.6N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.0N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.2N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 26.0N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.2N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 113.3W.
25AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 979
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 251503 CCA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025

CORRECTED FOR MISSING 50-KT RADII AT 24 HOURS

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 113.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 251437
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 AM MST MON AUG 25 2025

...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 113.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH WEAKENING BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 44 MPH (71 KM/H) WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED BY AN AUTOMATED MEXICAN NAVY STATION ON CLARION ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 251438
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 AM MST MON AUG 25 2025

DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING, CONTINUES TO
BURST OVER JULIETTE'S CENTER. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME SHEAR
AFFECTING THE CYCLONE, ALTHOUGH VARIOUS DIAGNOSTICS FROM UW-CIMSS
AND SHIPS SUGGEST IT HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 10 KT. OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING, AND THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO NOW BE 40 KT. WITH THE SHEAR NOW
LOWER, STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO WHILE JULIETTE REMAINS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE TOP END OF
THE GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36
HOURS DUE TO COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIETTE TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.

JULIETTE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (290 DEGREES) AT 11 KT. DUE
TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY, AND THEN THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A
TYPICAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE, AND THE NHC
FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE HCCA, FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE,
GOOGLE DEEP MIND, AND TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS. THIS UPDATED FORECAST
IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 251437
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 113.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 111.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 111.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.4N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.4N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.6N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.9N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.2N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.0N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.9N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 112.0W.
25AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1022 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 250835
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
200 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2025 EAST
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 111.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 111.8 West. Juliette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two, followed
by a motion to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Tuesday. Weakening should
begin on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250835
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 AM MST MON AUG 25 2025

SINCE THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY, THE SHEARED CONVECTIVE
BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GROWN LARGER, WITH A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C ON GOES-WEST INFRARED
IMAGERY. FURTHERMORE, THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, WHICH HAD BEEN EXPOSED
TO THE EAST OF THE BURST, APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED UNDERNEATH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS THE MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAKENING. THE UW-CIMSS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING, AND
ARE NOW IN THE 32-35 KT RANGE. TAFB PROVIDED A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 35 KT, AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 25/0441 UTC SHOWED A FEW
35 KT VECTORS IN THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN A BIT
RAIN-INFLATED. REGARDLESS OF THE ACCURACY OF THE ASCAT DATA, GIVEN
THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PERSISTENCE OF THE LARGE,
COLD CONVECTIVE MASS, THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
JULIETTE WITH A 35-KT INTENSITY.

JULIETTE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/11 KT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM IS INFLUENCED BY A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TO THE LEFT AND A BIT FASTER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, AND SO
HAS THE NHC FORECAST. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA) MODEL. SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES BY DAY 3, AND THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS THE CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AT THAT TIME, SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS
AIDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR JULIETTE TO STRENGTHEN
FOR AT LEAST 36-42 MORE HOURS. THE 10-KT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR BEING EXPERIENCED BY THE CYCLONE SHOULD DIMINISH TO SINGLE
DIGITS LATER TODAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES WARM OCEAN WATERS.
BY 48 H, JULIETTE SHOULD REACH COLDER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE, AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL INDUCE WEAKENING. THE LATEST
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT 36-48 H. THE REASON
FOR THIS IS THAT WITH THE SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT,
JULIETTE SHOULD HAVE A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT
REACHES THE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. WITH THE DECREASING SHEAR
LATER TODAY, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR JULIETTE TO BECOME A
HIGH-END TROPICAL STORM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 16.8N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 17.5N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.4N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.6N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 21.9N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 23.2N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 25.0N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.4N 117.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.6N 118.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.9N 120.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.2N 121.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 25.0N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN-E) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN-E) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 110.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 110.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.2N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.2N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.2N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.4N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.7N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.0N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.0N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 26.3N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
250400Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 110.8W.
25AUG25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN-E), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1060 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
250000Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 250232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 PM MST SUN AUG 24 2025

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 110.6W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H)
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250233
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
800 PM MST SUN AUG 24 2025

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND
IT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A BROAD STRUCTURE WITH NUMEROUS BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION, HOWEVER, IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL
ORGANIZED AND REMAINS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE STEERING
PATTERN PERSISTS. AFTER THAT TIME, A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN SOON, AND THAT
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HOWEVER, ANY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE
EXPECTED TRACK OVER COOLER WATER COMBINED WITH A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER
AIRMASS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND, AND ULTIMATELY LEAD TO THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS AID.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.5N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.2N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.2N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.4N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 21.7N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 26.3N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.6W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.6W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.2N 112.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.2N 114.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 116.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.4N 117.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.7N 119.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.3N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN-E) WARNING NR 001 //
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/240821ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN-E) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 109.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 109.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.7N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.7N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.7N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.7N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.4N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.5N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.0N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 110.0W.
24AUG25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN-E), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1105
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 240830).//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 242032
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025

...NEW EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 109.7W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 242033
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
200 PM MST SUN AUG 24 2025

DATA FROM BOTH THE ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETERS INDICATE THAT
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING A RUDIMENTARY BANDING
STRUCTURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THUS,
THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E AT THIS
TIME. THE SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/12 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN 4-5 DAYS, THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TURN MORE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE NOAA CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA,
MODEL AND THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND, GDMI, PREDICTIONS.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED
TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, GRADUALLY COOLING OCEAN
WATERS SHOULD PARTIALLY OFFSET THE MORE CONDUCIVE WIND
ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND
THE NHC PREDICTION IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SSTS ARE
LIKELY TO REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.7N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 18.7N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.7N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 24.5N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 242032
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.7W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.7W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.7N 115.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N 117.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 24.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 25.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

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