Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KIKO-25
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 101437
TCDCP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiko Discussion Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Sep 10 2025

Kiko has not produced any deep convection for the past 12 hours.
Global models show that the circulation will likely not form
organized deep convection in the future, likely due to a dry
environment and strong vertical wind shear. Kiko is now being
designated as a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the
last advisory on the system. The cyclone has continued to weaken
since the previous advisory so the initial intensity is lowered
to 30 kt.

The shallow vortex is moving westward at 10 kt. A turn to the
west-northwestward should occur soon and this general motion is
forecast to continue for the next couple of days until Kiko opens
into a trough and dissipates.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 22.9N 158.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0000Z 23.4N 159.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1200Z 24.0N 162.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 24.8N 164.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 25.4N 166.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 26.0N 168.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 101436
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST WED SEP 10 2025

...KIKO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 158.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19
KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON, WITH
THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE DIMINISHING TODAY, AS ARE THE
THREATS OF HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO THE LATEST UPDATES
AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU,
HAWAII FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 101436
TCMCP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC WED SEP 10 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 158.1W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 158.1W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 157.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 159.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 162.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.8N 164.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.4N 166.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.0N 168.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 158.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02
KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 100857
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 09 2025

Satellite images show that the burst of deep convection which
developed north of the low-level center of Kiko this afternoon has
collapsed, likely due to the strong southwesterly vertical wind
shear and the dry mid-level environment the cyclone is navigating.
The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from
PHFO, SAB, and JTWC ranged from 1.5/25 kt to 2.0/30 kt, while the
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 31 to 36 kt. Based on
a blend of these data, and accounting for little change in the
satellite presentation during the past 12 hours or so, the initial
intensity has been held at 35 kt for this advisory, keeping Kiko a
tropical storm for now.

Kiko’s movement has been a bit erratic since the previous advisory,
with outflow from the collapse of a deep convective burst driving
the low-level center south of due west since the previous advisory
cycle. This motion appears to be modifying after the initial
southward jog, with a west-northwestward motion expected to resume
shortly. The initial motion for this advisory is set at a somewhat
uncertain 280 degrees at 11 kt. This general west to west-northwest
motion is expected to continue during the next several days as
Kiko’s increasingly shallow circulation is steered by the low-level
flow along the southwest periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to
the north and northeast. The latest track forecast has shifted south
of the previous advisory to account for the southward jog, and is
roughly a blend of the latest multi-model consensus HCCA/TVCE/FSSE
aids and the AI-driven GDMI/EGMI aids.

Kiko will remain over sufficiently warm water during the next 24
hours, while struggling with very dry mid-level air and moderate to
strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. This should lead to
continued slow weakening of the cyclone, and Kiko will likely become
a tropical depression on Wednesday. Beyond 24 hours, the vertical
wind shear decreases and waters will warm to 27–28C, but this will
likely not be sufficient for intensification due to the very dry
mid-level environment and increasing upper-level convergence. As a
result, Kiko is expected to continue to weaken, with the forecast
calling for the cyclone to become a post-tropical remnant low by 48
hours and dissipate entirely by 96 hours. The intensity forecast is
very close to the previous forecast and is on the lower end of the
various intensity aids.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the western Hawaiian Islands
tonight through early Wednesday. The threat of direct impacts
continues to lower, although interests in the western Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor Kiko's progress.

2. Swells generated by Kiko will peak over the exposed waters of the
western Hawaiian Islands tonight and Wednesday, producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates
and forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu,
Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 22.4N 157.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 22.9N 158.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 23.6N 161.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 24.2N 163.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 24.9N 165.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 25.6N 167.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z 26.2N 170.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 100856
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 09 2025

... KIKO STILL A TROPICAL STORM AND HEADING WESTWARD JUST TO THE
NORTH OF HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 157.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 157.1 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON, WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION THEN
CONTINUING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON WEDNESDAY AND A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO WILL PEAK ACROSS EXPOSED WATERS OF
THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO THE LATEST UPDATES
AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU,
HAWAII FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 100855
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC WED SEP 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 157.1W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 157.1W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 156.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.9N 158.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.6N 161.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.2N 163.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.9N 165.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 25.6N 167.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.2N 170.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 157.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 100234
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 09 2025

A new convective burst has developed in association with Kiko, with
the strongest convection currently just north of the low-level
center. Scatterometer data received since the last advisory
indicated at least 35 kt winds in the northern semicircle, and
based on this and the current convective trends the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt.

While the center of Kiko turned a little to the left during the past
several hours, the longer-term motion remains west-northwestward at
285/12 kt. Kiko is expected to continue a general
west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward speed
during the next three days as it is steered by low-level easterly
flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge. The new forecast
track is adjusted a little to the left of the previous track based
on the initial position, and it lies near or just north of the
various consensus models.

The cyclone is forecast to remain within a high shear environment
over the next 12-18 h, and it is expected that Kiko will weaken to a
depression during that time. After that, while the shear weakens
for a time, the upper-level flow becomes convergent and the airmass
around the cyclone is quite dry. This combination should eventually
stop the associated convection, and Kiko is expected to degenerate
to a remnant low by 48 h. The system is expected to dissipate
completely between 72-96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands tonight
and Wednesday. Additional weakening is expected, and the threat of
direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though
interests should still monitor Kiko's progress and the latest
forecasts.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west
across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak
tonight through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts
issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 22.9N 156.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 23.4N 158.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 24.1N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.8N 162.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 25.6N 164.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 26.2N 166.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z 26.7N 168.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 100233
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC WED SEP 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 156.3W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 156.3W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 155.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.4N 158.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.1N 160.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 162.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.6N 164.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.2N 166.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.7N 168.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 156.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 092035
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 09 2025

... KIKO IS PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF
ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 154.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM N OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ENE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 154.9 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHILE PASSING
NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND THE SYSTEM MAY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 092037
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 09 2025

Satellite images show convection associated with Kiko remains
displaced to the north of the low-level center within northerly
outer bands. Strong southwesterly wind shear and drier air continues
to limit the overall convection, especially near the center of the
system through this morning. Lastest subjective estimates from SAB
and PHFO, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased
ranging from 25 to 43 kt. Using these estimates and the latest
satellite trends, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.

Kiko continues to move west-northwestward at an estimated motion of
290/13 kt. The system has become a more shallow vortex and is
forecast to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the
forecast period, steered by the subtropical ridge. The official
forecast track was nudged slightly left, and lies near the latest
consensus aids.

The cyclone remains is forecast to remain within a high shear
environment over the next 18 h or so, afterwards shear subsides for
about a day or so. When the shear subsides Kiko will remain over
warm ocean temperatures and global model simulated infrared imagery
show that the system could regain convection. However, it remains to
be seen if the convection will be organized enough to classify the
system as a tropical cyclone. By 48-60h, moderate to strong shear
returns, and the system should continue to weaken, lose all
convection, and eventually open into a trough dissipating by the
end of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast follows these
weakening trends, and lies near the consensus intensity aids. It is
noted that if Kiko does not produce organized convection soon as
models show, the system may become post-tropical earlier than
officially forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands today
and Wednesday. Additional weakening is expected, and the threat of
direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though
interests should still monitor Kiko's progress and the latest
forecasts.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west
across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak
today through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts
issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 22.9N 154.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 23.4N 156.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 23.9N 159.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 24.7N 161.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 25.6N 163.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 26.3N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 26.9N 167.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 092034
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC TUE SEP 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 154.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 154.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 154.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 156.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 159.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.7N 161.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 163.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.3N 165.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.9N 167.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 154.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 091435
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Sep 09 2025

Kiko has continued to weaken this morning in a high shear
environment, with deep convection being displaced well north of the
exposed low-level center. The latest trends in both subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease,
ranging from 25 to 45 kt. Given the trends with these estimates, the
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is west-northwestward at an estimated motion of
290/13 kt. The system has decoupled and the shallow vortex is being
steered along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
This west-northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated
throughout the forecast period. The official forecast track is
similar to the previous, with maybe a slight nudge to the left in
the short term, and lies near the HCCA corrected-consensus and
Google DeepMind aids.

Southwesterly shear continues to takes its toll on Kiko, displacing
any convection to the north. The shear is expected to remain high
over the next 24 hours. Shear decreases slightly between 48-60 h,
with the system over warm sea surface temperatures. Forecast
simulated satellite imagery shows that occasional bursts of
convection are possible and Kiko may be able to sustain its tropical
cyclone status. Beyond 60 h, shear increases once again and the
system should continue to weaken and dissipate. The latest NHC
forecast shows the system continuing to weaken and given the
increased shear again at 60 h, the system is now expected to become
a post-tropical cyclone. Global models depict the system slowly
spinning down and the official forecast follows those trends,
showing the cyclone dissipating by the end of the forecast period.
It is noted that if Kiko does not produce organized convection soon
as models show, the system may become post-tropical earlier than
officially forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands today
and Wednesday. Additional weakening is expected, and the threat of
direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though
interests should still monitor Kiko's progress and the latest
forecasts.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west
across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak
today through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts
issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 22.4N 153.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 23.1N 155.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 23.7N 157.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.4N 160.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 25.4N 162.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 26.2N 164.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 26.7N 166.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 28.2N 168.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 091434
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Sep 09 2025

...KIKO FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAII TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 153.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM NNE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ENE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Kiko.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 153.4 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next few days, while passing
north of the main Hawaiian Islands.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the system may
become post-tropical in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: Swells generated by Kiko are building from east to west across
the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak today
through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts issued from
the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 091433
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC TUE SEP 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 153.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 153.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 152.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.1N 155.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.7N 157.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.4N 160.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.4N 162.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.2N 164.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.7N 166.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.2N 168.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 153.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 090856
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 08 2025

Kiko has rapidly weakened this evening, with the system now
consisting primarily of a swirl of low-level clouds and little to no
remaining deep convection. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating the cyclone measured a central pressure of
1004 mb and a maximum flight-level wind of 62 kt at 850 mb. Shortly
thereafter, a timely ASCAT-C pass at 0704 UTC depicted surface winds
near 40 kt in the northern semicircle. These data, together with the
latest objective and subjective intensity estimates and the
continued degradation of the satellite presentation, support an
initial intensity of 50 kt, making Kiko a tropical storm.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. With the
cyclone now shallow and asymmetric, Kiko is being steered primarily
by the low-level subtropical ridge. The forecast track has been
nudged slightly southward to better align with the multi-model
consensus aids and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). This
keeps Kiko on a west-northwestward trajectory, passing north of the
Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak and asymmetric
tropical storm. Intermittent bursts of convection, as reflected by
model-simulated satellite guidance, could result in brief poleward
fluctuations of the track.

Persistent southwesterly shear of 30–40 kt has removed nearly all
organized convection from Kiko, and this hostile environment is
expected to continue through at least the next 24 hours. While the
shear may briefly decrease between 48 and 60 hours and sea surface
temperatures will be slightly warmer, only sporadic bursts of
convection are anticipated. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Kiko
is likely to become a tropical depression later in the week. The NHC
intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Additional weakening expected, and the threat of
direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though
interests should still monitor Kiko’s progress and the latest
forecasts.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west
across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak early
Tuesday through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts
issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 21.9N 152.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 22.7N 154.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.5N 156.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 24.2N 159.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 25.0N 161.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 25.8N 163.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 26.4N 165.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 27.6N 168.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 29.4N 169.7W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 090852
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST MON SEP 08 2025

...KIKO RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORMS...
...FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 152.1W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 152.1 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHILE PASSING
NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE BUILDING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE EXPOSED HAWAIIAN WATERS AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK EARLY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO THE LATEST UPDATES AND FORECASTS ISSUED FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU, HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 090851
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE SEP 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 152.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 40SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 105SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 152.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 151.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.7N 154.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 10SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.5N 156.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 159.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 161.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.8N 163.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.4N 165.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.6N 168.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 29.4N 169.7W
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 090400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 150.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2025 21.5N 150.2W MODERATE
12UTC 09.09.2025 22.5N 153.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2025 23.3N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2025 23.9N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2025 24.5N 161.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2025 24.8N 163.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2025 25.6N 164.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2025 26.5N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2025 27.3N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2025 28.5N 169.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2025 29.4N 170.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2025 30.3N 169.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2025 31.6N 167.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2025 32.5N 163.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2025 33.6N 159.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090400


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 090401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 150.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2025 0 21.5N 150.2W 999 48
1200UTC 09.09.2025 12 22.5N 153.3W 1007 40
0000UTC 10.09.2025 24 23.3N 156.1W 1010 34
1200UTC 10.09.2025 36 23.9N 158.9W 1011 31
0000UTC 11.09.2025 48 24.5N 161.5W 1011 27
1200UTC 11.09.2025 60 24.8N 163.5W 1011 24
0000UTC 12.09.2025 72 25.6N 164.8W 1012 24
1200UTC 12.09.2025 84 26.5N 166.9W 1013 22
0000UTC 13.09.2025 96 27.3N 168.5W 1014 19
1200UTC 13.09.2025 108 28.5N 169.9W 1015 20
0000UTC 14.09.2025 120 29.4N 170.2W 1015 21
1200UTC 14.09.2025 132 30.3N 169.7W 1014 23
0000UTC 15.09.2025 144 31.6N 167.4W 1011 26
1200UTC 15.09.2025 156 32.5N 163.5W 1009 32
0000UTC 16.09.2025 168 33.6N 159.5W 1006 40


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090400


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 090244
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Sep 08 2025

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko this
afternoon measured maximum flight-level winds of 84 kt at 700 mb and
a minimum central pressure of 994 mb. These data, along with
subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates of 3.5/55 kt from SAB,
HFO, and JTWC, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging from 35
to 54 kt, indicate that Kiko has weakened further. Satellite imagery
shows the low-level center becoming increasingly exposed, with deep
convection sheared off to the north and northeast and little or no
convection remaining in the southern semicircle. Based on a blend of
the aircraft and satellite estimates, and accounting for the
continued weakening trend since the last fixes, the initial
intensity is set at a possibly generous 65 kt, keeping Kiko a
Category 1 hurricane for now. Another aircraft mission is scheduled
for later this evening and should provide additional confirmation of
Kiko’s intensity.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/12 kt, with Kiko
continuing to be steered around the southwestern periphery of a
subtropical ridge. This motion should persist through the next 12–24
hours, after which Kiko’s increasingly shallow circulation will
become more influenced by the low- to mid-level ridge to the north.
This evolution is expected to result in a gradual but continued
west-northwestward to northwestward trajectory as the cyclone passes
north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. The track
guidance remains in good agreement, and the latest NHC forecast is
again very close to the previous one, staying near a blend of the
multi-model consensus aids and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean
(GDMI).

The southwesterly vertical wind shear affecting Kiko has increased
beyond earlier predictions, now estimated at 35–40 kt, and this has
accelerated the weakening trend. This elevated shear is forecast to
persist through Tuesday, maintaining a highly unfavorable
environment for Kiko. As a result, Kiko will likely be downgraded to
a tropical storm later this evening or overnight as additional
reconnaissance data become available. Beyond 48 hours, SHIPS
guidance still indicates a brief decrease in shear while sea surface
temperatures rise slightly to near 27 C, which could slow the
weakening rate somewhat. The new NHC intensity forecast remains
close to the middle of the guidance envelope, showing Kiko becoming
a tropical storm within the next 12 hours and continuing to
gradually weaken thereafter.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on the islands
continues to decrease, interests should continue to monitor
Kiko's progress and the latest forecasts.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to
west across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak
tonight through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts
issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 21.6N 150.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 22.5N 152.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 23.4N 155.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 24.2N 157.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 25.0N 160.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 25.8N 162.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 26.4N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 28.2N 167.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 30.1N 169.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 090242
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST MON SEP 08 2025

...KIKO STEADILY WEAKENS BUT REMAINS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 150.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 150.9 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND KIKO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE EXPOSED HAWAIIAN WATERS AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO THE LATEST UPDATES AND FORECASTS
ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU, HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 090242
TCMCP4

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC TUE SEP 09 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 150.9W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 150.9W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 150.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 152.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.4N 155.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 157.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 160.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.8N 162.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.4N 164.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.2N 167.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.1N 169.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 150.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 082049
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 08 2025

The convective structure of Hurricane Kiko continues to degrade,
with IR satellite imagery depicting a gradual warming of cloud tops,
with convection become more ragged. Furthermore, a WSF-M microwave
pass at 1625 UTC showed the core of the circulation tilting with
height toward the north. The most recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observed maximum flight-level winds of 88 kt at 700
mb in the northeast quadrant, suggesting that Kiko has maintained
its intensity, despite the continued structural degradation.
Assuming a slightly lower than typical 0.85 reduction factor at 700
mb, the intensity for this advisory is maintained at 75 kt, which is
higher than both Dvorak and objective satellite intensity estimates.
The most recent aircraft pass through the northwest quadrant
indicated a strongly tilted vortex, with enhanced convection in the
downshear-left quadrant.

Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, with its estimated motion
at 305/13 kt. For the next 12-24 hours this motion should continue
as Kiko continues to be steered around the southwestern periphery of
a subtropical ridge. However, as Kiko continues to experience strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear, the vertical depth of the system
is expected to decrease, with the more shallow circulation becoming
subsequently steered by the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to
the north. This evolution is forecast to result in a gradual
leftward turn but still west-northwestward as Kiko passes the
longitude of the Hawaiian islands. The track guidance remains in
good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast is very close to
the prior forecast, remaining close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE
consensus and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI).

The strong southwesterly vertical wind shear above 25 kts is
expected to continue through 48 hours. Beyond that, SHIPS guidance
suggests a brief decrease in shear from 48 to 72 hours, after which
the shear increases again but shifting 180 degrees from
southwesterly to northeasterly. Dry air continues to surround the
circulation of Kiko, particularly upshear, which in light of the
current shear, will accelerate the ventilation of the core
convection. Weakening is forecast through the forecast period. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the middle of the guidance
envelope through the 5 day period.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on the islands
continues to decrease, interests there should continue to monitor
Kiko's progress and the latest forecast.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late today through the middle of the week, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen to the latest updates
and potential High Surf Warnings issued from the National Weather
Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 21.0N 149.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 21.8N 151.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 23.0N 154.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 23.9N 156.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 24.8N 159.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 25.5N 161.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 26.1N 163.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 27.5N 167.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 29.5N 169.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Shieh/Papin


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 082048
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST MON SEP 08 2025

...RECONNAISSANCE FINDS THAT KIKO REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK
BRINGING SURF AND RIP CURRENT IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 149.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 149.9 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15
MPH (24 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND KIKO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TOMORROW MORNING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA
IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD AND
ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN TO THE LATEST
UPDATES AND POTENTIAL HIGH SURF WARNINGS ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU, HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER SHIEH/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 082047
TCMCP4

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC MON SEP 08 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 149.9W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 105SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 149.9W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 149.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.8N 151.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 154.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.9N 156.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 65NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.8N 159.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 15SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.5N 161.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 20SE 0SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.1N 163.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 167.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.5N 169.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 149.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER SHIEH/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 081601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 148.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2025 0 20.0N 148.3W 983 62
0000UTC 09.09.2025 12 20.8N 150.7W 995 52
1200UTC 09.09.2025 24 21.7N 153.0W 1005 45
0000UTC 10.09.2025 36 22.7N 155.6W 1007 38
1200UTC 10.09.2025 48 23.4N 158.5W 1009 37
0000UTC 11.09.2025 60 23.9N 161.0W 1010 31
1200UTC 11.09.2025 72 24.4N 163.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 12.09.2025 84 25.2N 165.4W 1011 26
1200UTC 12.09.2025 96 26.0N 167.9W 1012 26
0000UTC 13.09.2025 108 26.7N 170.2W 1013 22
1200UTC 13.09.2025 120 27.7N 172.3W 1014 23
0000UTC 14.09.2025 132 28.5N 173.7W 1014 24
1200UTC 14.09.2025 144 29.2N 174.1W 1013 24
0000UTC 15.09.2025 156 30.0N 173.6W 1013 24
1200UTC 15.09.2025 168 30.9N 172.3W 1011 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.9N 32.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 156 15.0N 33.7W 1012 27
1200UTC 15.09.2025 168 15.1N 37.9W 1010 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081601


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 081601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 148.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2025 20.0N 148.3W MODERATE
00UTC 09.09.2025 20.8N 150.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2025 21.7N 153.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2025 22.7N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2025 23.4N 158.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2025 23.9N 161.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2025 24.4N 163.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2025 25.2N 165.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2025 26.0N 167.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2025 26.7N 170.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2025 27.7N 172.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2025 28.5N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2025 29.2N 174.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2025 30.0N 173.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2025 30.9N 172.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.9N 32.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2025 15.0N 33.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2025 15.1N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081601


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 081445
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Sep 08 2025

Before departing, the final Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft fix into Kiko showed that the hurricane's structure
continues to degrade, with the dropsonde launched at 1104 UTC
showing increasing tilt with height between the surface center and
flight level center. Maximum flight level winds from earlier in the
mission were still 94 kt at 700 mb, but the structure has degraded
further since that time. In fact satellite-based intensity estimates
are much lower, and only support an intensity of 55 to 75 kt. The
initial intensity of Kiko this advisory is being lowered to 75 kt,
on the higher end of the satellite estimates, in deference to the
earlier recon data.

Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, with its estimated motion
at 300/13 kt. For the next 12-24 hours this motion should continue
as Kiko remains vertically deep, and is steered along the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. However, the
hurricane is quickly approaching a large deep-layer trough, which is
imparting significant southwesterly mid- to upper-level flow. At
this juncture, this flow is expected to significantly shear the
cyclone, making it more vertically shallow, and it will become
increasingly steered by the mid- to low-level flow which still has
an anticyclone to its north. Thus, the west-northwestward motion is
expected to continue beyond 24 hours too, and may even turn slightly
leftward in days 3-4. The track guidance remains is good agreement
on this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is very close
to the prior one, blending the reliable consensus aids HCCA and
TVCE with the Google Deep-Mind ensemble mean (GDMI). On the
forecast track, Kiko is expected to pass north of the Hawaiian
islands later this week and at this time no tropical storm watches
are necessary for the island chain.

The hurricane now appears to be feeling the effects of southwesterly
vertical wind shear, which is now above 25 kt and expected to
increase further over the next 24 hours. In addition, very dry air
as seen on GOES-18 water vapor imagery is located in that upshear
direction, and will likely be imported into Kiko's small inner core.
Thus, weakening is anticipated to continue, and Kiko will likely
weaken below hurricane intensity even as the cyclone starts to move
over warmer sea-surface temperatures in 24-48 hours. There is a
brief period where the shear weakens in 2-3 days before it increases
again out of the east. Given the latest guidance, it seems more
likely Kiko's structure will not allow the cyclone to recover much,
and slow weakening is still forecasted through the end of the
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the
middle of the guidance envelope through the 5 day period.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on the islands
continues to decrease, interests there should continue to monitor
Kiko's progress and the latest forecast.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late today through the middle of the week, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen to the latest updates
and potential High Surf Warnings issued from the National Weather
Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 20.3N 148.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 21.2N 150.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.4N 152.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.4N 155.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 24.3N 158.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 25.0N 160.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 25.9N 162.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 27.3N 166.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 29.1N 168.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Shieh


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 081443
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST MON SEP 08 2025

...KIKO NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK
BRINGING SURF AND RIP CURRENT IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 148.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 148.8 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THE END
OF THE DAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 080848
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 07 2025

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko
this evening measured a minimum central pressure of 982 mb and a
maximum flight-level wind of 96 kt. These data indicate that Kiko
has continued to weaken, with satellite imagery showing the
low-level center near the southwestern edge of the deep convection
in response to about 25 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear. Based on a
blend of the aircraft data, satellite trends, and the various
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at a
possibly generous 85 kt.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/12 kt, with Kiko
remaining on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This
steering pattern should keep the cyclone on a general
west-northwestward to northwestward trajectory through the next
couple of days. Kiko is expected to pass north of the Hawaiian
Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the most reliable track models
remain in good agreement on this scenario. The official forecast is
essentially unchanged from the previous cycle and remains close to
the consensus aids. Based on the new forecast and accounting for
typical errors, there is currently less than a 10 percent chance of
tropical-storm-force winds occurring at any location on the Hawaiian
Islands, and tropical storm watches are not required or expected at
this time.

Kiko is expected to continue weakening at an accelerated rate during
the next 24 hours as southwesterly shear strengthens to 30–35 kt
while the cyclone remains over marginal sea surface temperatures.
Under these increasingly hostile conditions, the system should
weaken to tropical storm strength by late Monday. If Kiko is
able to withstand the peak shear period, some moderation in the
weakening rate is possible later in the forecast as it moves over
slightly warmer waters near 27 C and vertical wind shear decreases.
The current intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on the islands
appears to be decreasing, interests there should continue to monitor
Kiko's progress and the latest forecast.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 19.6N 147.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 20.5N 149.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.7N 151.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 22.9N 154.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 23.9N 156.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.7N 159.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 25.3N 161.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 26.8N 165.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 28.8N 168.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 080847
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 07 2025

...KIKO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 147.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 147.6 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH KIKO EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD AND
ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU,
HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 080847
TCMCP4

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC MON SEP 08 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 147.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....165NE 75SE 105SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 147.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 147.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 149.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 151.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.9N 154.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.9N 156.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 159.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.3N 161.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.8N 165.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.8N 168.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 147.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 145.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2025 0 18.4N 145.9W 971 72
1200UTC 08.09.2025 12 19.8N 148.2W 988 58
0000UTC 09.09.2025 24 20.8N 150.7W 1000 48
1200UTC 09.09.2025 36 21.7N 153.5W 1006 44
0000UTC 10.09.2025 48 22.4N 156.1W 1010 36
1200UTC 10.09.2025 60 23.3N 159.1W 1012 31
0000UTC 11.09.2025 72 23.9N 161.8W 1012 25
1200UTC 11.09.2025 84 24.0N 164.1W 1012 24
0000UTC 12.09.2025 96 24.9N 166.4W 1013 22
1200UTC 12.09.2025 108 25.5N 169.0W 1013 23
0000UTC 13.09.2025 120 26.1N 171.8W 1013 22
1200UTC 13.09.2025 132 26.7N 174.0W 1015 20
0000UTC 14.09.2025 144 27.9N 175.5W 1014 22
1200UTC 14.09.2025 156 29.2N 175.4W 1014 22
0000UTC 15.09.2025 168 30.0N 174.4W 1013 21


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080400


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 080400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 145.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2025 18.4N 145.9W STRONG
12UTC 08.09.2025 19.8N 148.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.09.2025 20.8N 150.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2025 21.7N 153.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2025 22.4N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2025 23.3N 159.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2025 23.9N 161.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2025 24.0N 164.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2025 24.9N 166.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2025 25.5N 169.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2025 26.1N 171.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2025 26.7N 174.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2025 27.9N 175.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2025 29.2N 175.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2025 30.0N 174.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080400


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 080251
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Sep 07 2025

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko
this afternoon measured a minimum central pressure of 974 mb and a
maximum flight-level wind of 103 kt. The satellite presentation has
held fairly steady since, though some deterioration of the southwest
quadrant has been noted as southwesterly shear of around 20 kt has
started to affect the cyclone. Recent aircraft fixes also suggest a
slight northeastward tilt of the vortex in response to the shear.
Subjective Dvorak estimates ranged from T4.5/77 kt at SAB and JTWC
to T5.0/90 kt at HFO, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS were
between 77 and 88 kt. Based on a blend of these data and the modest
satellite changes, the initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt
for this advisory.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/12 kt, with Kiko
remaining on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Based
on this steering pattern, Kiko is expected to pass north of the
Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the most reliable
track models remain in good agreement on this scenario. The official
forecast is nearly identical to the previous NHC forecast and
remains close to the consensus aids. Given the new forecast and
accounting for typical errors, there is currently less than a 10
percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds occurring at any
location in the Hawaiian Islands, and tropical storm watches are not
required or expected at this time.

Cooler waters and increasing shear supports additional weakening
during the next 12–24 hours, with Kiko likely to fall below
hurricane strength by late Monday or Monday night. The shear is
forecast to peak near 30–35 kt between 24 and 48 hours, which should
accelerate the weakening trend. If Kiko is able to withstand that
period, some moderation in the weakening rate is possible later in
the forecast as the cyclone moves over slightly warmer waters near
27 C while also accompanied by a decrease in vertical wind shear.
The current intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on the islands
appears to be decreasing, interests there should continue to monitor
Kiko's progress and the latest forecast.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 18.9N 146.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.7N 148.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 20.9N 150.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.1N 152.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.3N 155.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 24.2N 158.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 25.2N 160.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 27.0N 165.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 28.6N 168.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 080250
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SUN SEP 07 2025

...KIKO REMAINS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 146.6W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 146.6 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH KIKO EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DROPSONDE DATA IS 974 MB
(28.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD AND
ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU,
HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 080249
TCMCP4

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC MON SEP 08 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 146.6W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....165NE 75SE 90SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 146.6W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 146.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.7N 148.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.9N 150.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.1N 152.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 155.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 158.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.2N 160.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N 165.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.6N 168.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 146.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 072034
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 07 2025


Kiko's eye has become a bit cloud filled during the past few hours,
and cloud-top temperatures around the eye have been gradually
warming. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently investigating the hurricane and measured a 700-mb
flight-level wind of 105 kt in the northeastern quadrant, as well
as a minimum pressure up to 974 mb. Based on the aircraft data,
the current intensity is set at 95 kt, which is also in line with
the latest objective satellite estimates.

The west-northwestward motion of 300/11 kt continues, and a
slightly faster speed on that trajectory is expected at least
through day 4 while Kiko remains on the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge. Based on this motion, Kiko is expected to pass to
the north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the
most reliable track models remain in good agreement on this
scenario. The track guidance is again a little faster with Kiko as
it passes to the north of the islands, and the NHC track forecast
is a bit faster than the previous prediction starting in about 24
hours, but there is no appreciable change in the cross-track
direction. Based on the new forecast, and accounting for typical
forecast errors, there is currently less than a 10 percent chance
of tropical-storm-force winds occurring at any location on the
Hawaiian Islands, and tropical storm watches are not required.

Cool water temperatures appear to be contributing to Kiko's current
weakening. Moderate southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to
develop over Kiko in about 12-18 hours, and that, along with a very
dry surrounding environment, should lead to even quicker weakening.
The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus
aids, and shows Kiko falling below hurricane intensity on Monday.
The shear appears to peak in about 48 hours (as much as 30-35 kt),
so if Kiko can survive that period, it's possible that the storm
may weaken more slowly in the latter part of the foreast,
especially with sea surface temperatures along its path expected to
warm to about 27 degrees Celsius by day 3.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on the islands
appears to be decreasing, interests there should continue to monitor
Kiko's progress and the latest forecast.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui today. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.1N 145.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.0N 147.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 20.2N 149.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 21.4N 151.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 22.6N 154.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 23.7N 156.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 159.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 26.6N 163.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 28.3N 166.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 072033
TCMCP4

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN SEP 07 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 145.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....165NE 90SE 90SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 145.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 145.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 147.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.2N 149.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.4N 151.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.6N 154.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.7N 156.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 159.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.6N 163.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 28.3N 166.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 145.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 072033
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 07 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT KIKO CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 145.5W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.5 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF KIKO IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175
KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DROPSONDE DATA IS 974 MB
(28.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN REACHING THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 071439
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Sep 07 2025

Kiko remains a compact hurricane, although the eye has become less
circular during the past few hours. Dvorak CI numbers from SAB,
JTWC, and PHFO now range between 5.5-6.0 (102-115 kt), while
objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are generally between 90-100 kt.
Based on these estimates, the intensity is estimated to be about 100
kt. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Kiko around 8 AM HST/1800 UTC.

The hurricane is on a steady west-northwestward trajectory of 300
degrees at 11 kt. A mid-level ridge lies north of Kiko, extending
to about 150W, while a deep-layer low is located north of the
Hawaiian Islands. The steering resulting from this pattern is
expected to keep Kiko on a west-northwestward heading for the next
5 days, with some decrease in speed possible around Friday. Based
on this motion, Kiko is expected to pass to the north of the
Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the most reliable
track models are in good agreement on this scenario. The one main
change in the forecast is that a good chunk of the
guidance is showing a faster motion beyond 48 hours, and the new
NHC forecast is therefore a little faster than the previous
prediction at those forecast times, maintaining a forward speed
of 12-13 kt through day 4.

Kiko is already moving over cool waters of about 25 degrees
Celsius, which is likely causing the current weakening trend.
Although vertical shear is currently low, southwesterly shear of at
least 20 kt is forecast to set in over Kiko in about 24 hours.
Because of the hurricane's small size and it being embedded in a
very dry surrounding environment, this shear is likely to hasten
the weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows
the latest HCCA aid, dropping Kiko below hurricane strength just
after 48 hours. While continued weakening is likely thereafter,
there is some uncertainty as to whether Kiko will fall below
tropical storm strength by day 5, as shown in the official
forecast. If model trends continue to show some restrengthening,
then subsequent advisories may keep tropical storm status through 5
days.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on
Tuesday and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on
the islands appears to be decreasing, interests there should
continue to monitor Kiko's progress and the latest forecast.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui later today. These swells will gradually build and
are forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.6N 144.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 18.4N 145.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.6N 148.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 20.9N 150.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 22.1N 152.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 23.2N 155.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 24.2N 157.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 26.0N 162.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 27.2N 165.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 071438
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SUN SEP 07 2025

...KIKO GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 144.4W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 144.4 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN REACHING THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 070853
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko
this evening measured a minimum central pressure of 960 mb and
maximum flight-level winds of 113 kt. Although the hurricane
maintains a symmetric annular structure with a well-defined eye, the
surrounding ring of cold cloud tops has warmed over the past few
hours. HFO Dvorak subjective intensity estimates reflected this
weakening trend with a T5.5/102 kt, while SAB had a T5.0/90 kt.
Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 107 to 115
kt. Based on a blend of these data and satellite trends, and
considering the fluctuating intensity that Kiko has exhibited during
the past couple of days, the initial intensity is set at 110 kt,
making Kiko a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 300 degrees at 11 kt.
The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a mid-level
ridge, while a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii is eroding
the ridge’s western extent. This pattern should maintain a
west-northwestward to northwestward track through the rest of the
weekend. By early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), as Kiko weakens
and becomes more vertically shallow, the cyclone will be steered
more by the low-level flow, which should induce a gradual turn
toward the west while keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian
Islands. The latest forecast track is nearly identical to the
previous NHC forecast and remains close to the consensus aids.

Kiko has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane this evening, and
additional gradual weakening is expected overnight and into Sunday
as the cyclone remains over cooler waters. It will likely fall below
major hurricane strength by Sunday night. However, its annular
structure introduces some uncertainty regarding the exact rate of
decay over the next 12–24 hours. By Monday, increasing mid-level dry
air and strengthening west-southwesterly shear should lead to a more
pronounced weakening trend. By days 3 to 5, Kiko is forecast to
become a much weaker, shallow, and sheared system as it passes north
of the Hawaiian Islands. The official forecast remains slightly
above most of the short-term guidance, before trending closer to the
consensus aids later in the period.

Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Kiko again around 07/1800 UTC Sunday, which will provide
updated information on its intensity and structure.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track
currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still
too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential
impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 17.1N 143.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.8N 144.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.9N 146.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 20.2N 149.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 21.5N 151.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 22.7N 153.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 23.6N 155.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 25.1N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 26.0N 164.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 070851
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 06 2025

...KIKO REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 143.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 143.4 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 960 MB (28.35 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND
ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU,
HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 070851
TCMCP4

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SUN SEP 07 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 143.4W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 143.4W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 142.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.8N 144.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.9N 146.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.2N 149.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 151.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.7N 153.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 155.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 160.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 164.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 143.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 070359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 142.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2025 0 16.4N 142.0W 951 83
1200UTC 07.09.2025 12 17.2N 143.9W 972 66
0000UTC 08.09.2025 24 18.0N 145.8W 979 63
1200UTC 08.09.2025 36 19.1N 147.9W 982 64
0000UTC 09.09.2025 48 19.8N 150.0W 994 54
1200UTC 09.09.2025 60 20.3N 152.5W 1003 44
0000UTC 10.09.2025 72 20.8N 154.5W 1005 43
1200UTC 10.09.2025 84 21.7N 156.6W 1008 37
0000UTC 11.09.2025 96 21.9N 158.9W 1010 29
1200UTC 11.09.2025 108 23.0N 161.2W 1011 29
0000UTC 12.09.2025 120 23.2N 164.0W 1012 23
1200UTC 12.09.2025 132 23.9N 166.6W 1013 23
0000UTC 13.09.2025 144 25.5N 169.2W 1014 23
1200UTC 13.09.2025 156 27.0N 172.0W 1014 21
0000UTC 14.09.2025 168 28.3N 173.7W 1014 19


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070359


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 142.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2025 16.4N 142.0W INTENSE
12UTC 07.09.2025 17.2N 143.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.09.2025 18.0N 145.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2025 19.1N 147.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2025 19.8N 150.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2025 20.3N 152.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2025 20.8N 154.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2025 21.7N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2025 21.9N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2025 23.0N 161.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2025 23.2N 164.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2025 23.9N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2025 25.5N 169.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2025 27.0N 172.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2025 28.3N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070359


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 070245
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

Kiko's satellite presentation became more impressive during the
afternoon hours, with a well-defined eye surrounded by a large,
symmetric ring of very cold cloud tops. This annular structure has
allowed the hurricane to re-strengthen despite surrounding dry air
and marginal sea surface temperatures as it gradually gains
latitude. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates have
increased, with HFO at 6.5/127 kt and SAB at 6.0/115 kt. Objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS are also climbing back to as high as 115 kt.
Based on a blend of these data and the satellite appearance, the
initial intensity is set at 120 kt, making Kiko a Category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale once again.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 10 kt.
The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a mid-level
ridge, while a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii is eroding
the ridge’s western extent. This pattern should maintain a
west-northwestward to northwestward track through the weekend. By
early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), as Kiko weakens and becomes
more vertically shallow, the cyclone will be steered more by the
low-level flow, which should induce a gradual turn toward the west
while keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The
latest forecast track lies just to the right of the previous NHC
forecast and represents a blend between that solution and the
consensus aids.

Kiko may hold Category 4 strength into the evening, but gradual
weakening is expected to begin overnight, with it likely falling
below major hurricane status by Sunday night. However, its annular
structure introduces some uncertainty regarding the exact rate of
weakening over the next 12–24 hours. Beyond Monday, the combined
effects of increasing mid-level dry air and strengthening
west-southwesterly shear should accelerate the weakening process. By
days 3 to 5, Kiko is forecast to be a much weaker, shallow, and
sheared system as it passes north of the Hawaiian Islands. The
official forecast remains above most of the short-term guidance,
then trends closer to the consensus aids later in the period.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Kiko later this evening and will provide a better look at Kiko's
intensity and structure.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track
currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still
too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential
impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.5N 142.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.2N 143.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.2N 145.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.5N 148.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.8N 150.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 22.1N 152.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 23.2N 154.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 159.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.8N 163.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 070243
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SAT SEP 06 2025

...KIKO RE-STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 142.4W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 142.4 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB (27.94 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND
ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU,
HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 070243
TCMCP4

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SUN SEP 07 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 142.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 142.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 141.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.2N 143.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.2N 145.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 148.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.8N 150.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.1N 152.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.2N 154.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 159.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.8N 163.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 142.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPA64 PHFO 070130
TCUCP4

Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
330 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

...KIKO STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...

Satellite imagery indicates that Kiko has continued to
strengthen, and is now a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The satellite-based estimated
maximum sustained winds are now near 130 mph (215 km/h). The
next advisory will be issued by 5 pm HST (0300 UTC) with the
updated forecast.

SUMMARY OF 330 PM HST...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 142.1W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA64 PHFO 062350
TCUCP4

Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

...KIKO RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

Satellite imagery indicates that Kiko has been strengthening during
the past few hours. The satellite-based estimated maximum sustained
winds are now near 125 mph (200 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 150 PM HST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 141.8W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1110 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 062035
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

Kiko continues to maintain a well-defined eye, but the eyewall
convective tops continue to slowly warm. Satellite intensity
estimates have decreased since the last advisory and are currently
in the 90-115 kt range. Based on a blend of the estimates, the
initial intensity is decreased to 105 kt.

Kiko has moved a little to the right during the past few hours, and
the overall motion is now 295/10 kt. The hurricane is on the south
side of a low- to mid-level ridge, and a mid- to upper-level low
seen in satellite imagery near and north of Hawaii is eroding the
ridge's western end. This pattern should cause Kiko to move
west-northwestward to perhaps northwestward for the next 72 h or so.
After that time, a more westward track is expected as Kiko shears
apart vertically and the weakening cyclone is steered more by the
low-level easterly flow. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track and lies along the south side of the various
consensus models. While the current forecast track keeps the center
of Kiko north of the Hawaiian Islands, there is still some spread in
the guidance, and thus uncertainty, in forecasts at 3 days and
beyond.

During the next 2 days or so, Kiko should be passing over sea
surface temperatures near 26C while it moves through a dry
mid-level air mass. This combination should cause some weakening.
After that, while the sea surface temperatures get warmer along the
forecast track, strong vertical shear produced by the upper-level
low should cause continued weakening, with Kiko expected to shear
apart vertically by 72-96 hr. The new intensity forecast shows
notably lower intensities than the previous forecast based on the
current intensity and the intensity consensus forecast.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Kiko later today to provide a better look at Kiko's intensity and
structure.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track
currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still
too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential
impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.1N 141.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.8N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.7N 144.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.8N 146.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 20.1N 149.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 21.4N 151.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 22.5N 153.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.4N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.5N 162.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 062035
TCMCP4

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 141.4W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 141.4W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 140.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 142.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.7N 144.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.8N 146.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.1N 149.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.4N 151.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.5N 153.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.4N 158.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.5N 162.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 141.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 062035
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 06 2025

...KIKO WEAKENS SOME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 141.4W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.4 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB (28.17 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU,
HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 061443
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

Kiko is maintaining a well-defined eye on satellite imagery, but
the convection is becoming eroded over the northern semicircle
of the system. Also, the cloud tops have warmed somewhat since
last night. The advisory intensity is set at 115 kt, in general
agreement with Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB
and close to the objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Scatterometer
data overnight showed that the system remains rather small, with
tropical-storm force winds over a diameter of 100 n mi or less.

The hurricane continues on its west-northwestward trek with an
initial motion estimate of 290/10 kt. Kiko is moving on the
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. A mid- to upper-level
trough near Hawaii is eroding the ridge's western periphery, so a
a nearly northwestward motion is likely around 72 hours. Later in
the forecast period, a more westward track is likely as the
weakening cyclone becomes more responsive to the lower-level
steering flow. The official forecast track is just slightly north
of the previous official prediction, with some of the consensus
track prediction aids even farther north of the latest official
track. This would keep the center of Kiko north of the main
Hawaiian Islands. However there is still some uncertainty in
forecasts at 3 days and beyond.

Kiko is traversing SSTs near 26 deg C and should continue to pass
over marginally warm ocean waters during the next few days.
However, the trough near Hawaii is likely to impart increasingly
strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the cyclone for
the next several days. The official intensity forecast shows
gradual weakening, and is generally above the consensus model
guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows
the deep convection becoming disorganized while the system passes
near the Hawaiian Islands, so the official intensity forecast at
3-5 days could be generous.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Kiko later today to provide a better look at Kiko's intensity and
structure.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
are possible over portions of the Islands, but it is still too soon
to determine the exact location or magnitude of these potential
impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress
of this storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 15.5N 140.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 143.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 18.0N 145.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 19.1N 147.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 20.4N 150.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 21.8N 152.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 24.1N 157.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 25.5N 162.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 061442
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SAT SEP 06 2025

...KIKO ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 140.5W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1205 MI...1945 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 140.5 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB (28.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
REACHING THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER
ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN HONOLULU, HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 061441
TCMCP4

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 140.5W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 140.5W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 140.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 143.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.0N 145.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.1N 147.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.4N 150.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.8N 152.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.1N 157.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 162.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 140.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 061036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

Kiko has held steady this evening with only minor fluctuations in
intensity, maintaining its Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye remains well-defined and is mostly
surrounded by a sufficiently large light gray shade on the Dvorak BD
curve, with occasional hints of an even stronger pattern when a
nearly sufficiently large black shade surrounds the eye. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensities varied, with TAFB at
6.5/127 kt, and SAB and HFO both at 6.0/115 kt. Objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS ranged between 115 and 122 kt. Blending the subjective
and objective data supports holding the initial intensity at 120 kt
for this advisory.

Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, or 285 degrees at 9 kt,
and will enter the Central Pacific basin within a few hours. The
cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a subtropical
ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii continues to
gradually erode the ridge’s western periphery. This general motion
is expected to persist through the weekend. By early to mid next
week (days 3 to 5), it is expected to turn slightly more westward
under increasing influence from the low-level steering flow, keeping
the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast
track lies slightly to the right of the previous NHC forecast and
represents a blend between that solution and the consensus aids.

Kiko is expected to maintain its major hurricane intensity through
Saturday while traversing waters near 26 C and under minimal shear.
Its annular structure should allow the system to resist weakening
longer than typically observed, even as it begins to move over
cooler waters. By late this weekend, Kiko will encounter
progressively cooler waters and steadily increasing
west-southwesterly shear, which should induce weakening at a more
rapid rate as it begins to approach the Hawaiian Islands. The
official intensity forecast holds Kiko above much of the guidance
through the first half of the weekend, before trending closer to the
consensus aids late in the weekend and early next week.

Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin
headers beginning at 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone
Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO
header WTPA44 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the
web at hurricanes.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should
continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 060836
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

Kiko has held steady this evening with only minor fluctuations in
intensity, maintaining its Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye remains well-defined and is mostly
surrounded by a sufficiently large light gray shade on the Dvorak BD
curve, with occasional hints of an even stronger pattern when a
nearly sufficiently large black shade surrounds the eye. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensities varied, with TAFB at
6.5/127 kt, and SAB and HFO both at 6.0/115 kt. Objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS ranged between 115 and 122 kt. Blending the subjective
and objective data supports holding the initial intensity at 120 kt
for this advisory.

Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, or 285 degrees at 9 kt,
and will enter the Central Pacific basin within a few hours. The
cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a subtropical
ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii continues to
gradually erode the ridge’s western periphery. This general motion
is expected to persist through the weekend. By early to mid next
week (days 3 to 5), it is expected to turn slightly more westward
under increasing influence from the low-level steering flow, keeping
the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast
track lies slightly to the right of the previous NHC forecast and
represents a blend between that solution and the consensus aids.

Kiko is expected to maintain its major hurricane intensity through
Saturday while traversing waters near 26 C and under minimal shear.
Its annular structure should allow the system to resist weakening
longer than typically observed, even as it begins to move over
cooler waters. By late this weekend, Kiko will encounter
progressively cooler waters and steadily increasing
west-southwesterly shear, which should induce weakening at a more
rapid rate as it begins to approach the Hawaiian Islands. The
official intensity forecast holds Kiko above much of the guidance
through the first half of the weekend, before trending closer to the
consensus aids late in the weekend and early next week.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should
continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.

Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin
headers beginning at 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions
will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44
PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at
hurricanes.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

...KIKO HOLDS STEADY AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE NEARING
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 139.7W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Kiko.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 139.7 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Only minor fluctuations in strength are
anticipated through Saturday, with gradual weakening expected to
begin by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko are expected to begin
reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will
gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures
of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially
producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later
advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service
in Honolulu, Hawaii.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific
basin headers beginning at 500 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4
and WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available
on the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 060831
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 139.7W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 105SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 139.7W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 139.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 139.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER EAST PACIFIC BASIN
HEADERS ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON KIKO CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN
HEADERS...AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4...WMO HEADER WTPA24
PHFO...BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 060237
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST FRI SEP 05 2025

KIKO HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE
EYE IS NOW SURROUNDED BY A LARGE RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS, AND
THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN ON A STRUCTURE MORE TYPICAL OF ANNULAR
HURRICANES. A GMI MICROWAVE PASS FROM 2224 UTC CONFIRMED A SYMMETRIC
INNER-CORE WITH A COMPLETE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE AS HIGH AS 122 KT.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH
T6.0/115 KT. BLENDING THE HIGHER OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WITH THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATIONS YIELDS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 120 KT.

KIKO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE
CYCLONE REMAINS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HAWAII IS
HELPING TO ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH KIKO EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
BASIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
NEAR THE HCCA CONSENSUS AND ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER, A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WOULD BRING KIKO CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND. HISTORICALLY,
CYCLONES APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST CAN SLOW AND
DEFLECT NORTHWARD AS THE ISLAND TERRAIN DISRUPTS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ALTERS THE STEERING CURRENTS.

KIKO SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 12A 24 HOURS
WHILE TRAVERSING 26A 27 C WATERS WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR. ITS ANNULAR STRUCTURE MAY ALLOW IT TO RESIST WEAKENING LONGER
THAN TYPICAL GUIDANCE, DESPITE THE SURROUNDING DRY ENVIRONMENT IN
THE MID- TO UPPER LEVELS. BEYOND 48 HOURS, A COMBINATION OF COOLER
WATERS, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, AND STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT WILL LIKELY INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS KIKO ABOVE MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
AIDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. KIKO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IMPACTS FROM RAIN AND WIND
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE EXACT
LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.

2. SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN REACHING THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 14.9N 138.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.4N 140.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 17.8N 145.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 19.0N 148.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 20.2N 150.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 22.4N 154.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 24.3N 159.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST FRI SEP 05 2025

...KIKO STRENGTHENS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 138.7W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1335 MI...2145 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 138.7 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS BY
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB (27.94 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
REACHING THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST FACING EXPOSURES
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER
ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN HONOLULU, HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 060234
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.7W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.7W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 138.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.4N 140.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.8N 145.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 150.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 154.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.3N 159.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 138.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 052044
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

The satellite presentation of Kiko has shown significant improvement
since the last advisory, with the eye clearing out and its coldest
cloud tops more fully encircling it. The most recent subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T6.0/115
kt and T5.5/102 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been
increasing, with the latest ADT estimate up to to 115 knots.
Considering the continuing improvement since the time of the 1800
UTC fixes, the intensity has been set at 115 kts, which could be
conservative as the eye continues to clear out.

Kiko continues to move to the west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 9
kt. The western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of the
cyclone is eroding due to a developing upper-level low north of
Hawaii. This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual
increase in forward speed is forecast into early next week, as Kiko
moves along the southwest periphery of this subtropical ridge and
towards the upper-level low to the north and northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands. The track forecast has shifted northward due to
the slightly more northward initial motion, and poleward shift in
the track guidance. Based on the forecast track Kiko is expected to
cross 140W into the central Pacific Ocean overnight into Saturday
morning. The track forecast remains close to the HCCA consensus
aid. By the end of the forecast track, Kiko may turn more westward
as it becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow.

The hurricane will remain over warm waters of 2728C for the next 12
hours, while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear
embedded in a drier than normal mid-level environment. These
environmental factors should keep Kiko a smaller than average sized
storm as the dry air prevents more prominent outer rain bands from
forming. Conditions still appear favorable for additional
intensification, so the latest intensity and given the current
improving structure, more intensification is shown than before, well
above all of the available guidance. This forecast also fits in
with the possibility for Kiko developing annular structure which
could keep it stronger than the forecast intensity guidance.
Thereafter, Kiko will move over cooler waters and an even drier
mid-level environment. After 48 hours, west-southwesterly vertical
wind shear increases steadily, exceeding 30 kt by Wednesday. This
shear may help import the nearby environmental dry air into Kiko's
small core. Thus, rapid weakening of the tropical cyclone is
forecast as Kiko passes to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands by
the end of the forecast. After the initial bump in short-term
intensity, this forecast trends back to the middle of the consensus
envelope early next week, and then trends lower by the end of the
forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should
continue to monitor the progress of this storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.5N 137.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 17.2N 145.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 18.2N 147.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 19.4N 149.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 21.7N 153.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 23.7N 158.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roth/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 052041
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

...KIKO QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 137.8W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Kiko.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 137.8 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track,
Kiko is expected to move into the central Pacific basin by tomorrow
morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
expected this afternoon and tonight before slow weakening begins on
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin reaching the
Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 052039
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 137.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 137.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 137.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.2N 145.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.2N 147.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.4N 149.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 153.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 65NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.7N 158.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 137.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 051446 CCA
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 22...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

Corrected Key Message for Kiko

The satellite presentation of Kiko continues to slowly deteriorate
early this morning, with the eye obscured by high clouds emanating
from the coldest convective tops in the southeast quadrant. The
most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are T6.0/115 kt and T5.0/90 kt. Objective estimates,
including ADT from UW-CIMSS, are a bit on the lower end of the
spread between 90-100 knots. The intensity has been set at 100 kts
as a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates.

Kiko has made the expected turn to the west-northwest, or 285
degrees, at 8 kt. The western extent of a subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone is eroding by a developing upper-level low
north of Hawaii. This general west-northwestward motion along with
a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast into early next
week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of this
subtropical ridge towards the upper-level low to the north and
northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest track forecast early
on is very similar to the previous forecast, before being adjusted
somewhat to the north from Monday onward as increasing southwesterly
vertical wind shear leads to convective asymmetry which could induce
a jog to the right. The track forecast is closest to the HCCA
consensus.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 2728C for the next 18 hours,
while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear,
although the cyclone will remain in a drier than optimal mid-level
environment keeping the storm size smaller than average. Despite
the dry mid-level airmass Kiko will be moving through, the other
factors still appear favorable for some slight intensification, so
the latest intensity forecast still shows a little short-term
strengthening. This forecast also fits in with the possibility for
Kiko to develop annular characteristics which could keep it stronger
than the forecast intensity guidance. Thereafter, Kiko will move
over slightly cooler waters and an even drier mid-level environment.
These less favorable conditions should begin a gradual weakening
trend, in spite of the very light vertical wind shear. Waters below
26 C await Kiko's track after Monday, with west-southwesterly
vertical wind shear increasing steadily to more than 30 kt by
Wednesday, making it more likely the nearby dry air gets imported
into Kiko's small core. The increasingly hostile environment should
lead to rapid weakening of the tropical cyclone as it approaches
the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast. The official
intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous
advisory cycle, but remains on the higher end of the intensity aids
through 48 hours. The intensity forecast then trends closer to the
middle of the intensity consensus envelope by Monday, and then
trends lower as Kiko should convectively sputter while moving very
close to the eastern end of the Hawaiian Island chain as a weakening
tropical storm.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should
continue to monitor the progress of this storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 14.2N 137.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roth/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 051438
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

The satellite presentation of Kiko continues to slowly deteriorate
early this morning, with the eye obscured by high clouds emanating
from the coldest convective tops in the southeast quadrant. The
most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are T6.0/115 kt and T5.0/90 kt. Objective estimates,
including ADT from UW-CIMSS, are a bit on the lower end of the
spread between 90-100 knots. The intensity has been set at 100 kts
as a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates.

Kiko has made the expected turn to the west-northwest, or 285
degrees, at 8 kt. The western extent of a subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone is eroding by a developing upper-level low
north of Hawaii. This general west-northwestward motion along with
a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast into early next
week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of this
subtropical ridge towards the upper-level low to the north and
northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest track forecast early
on is very similar to the previous forecast, before being adjusted
somewhat to the north from Monday onward as increasing southwesterly
vertical wind shear leads to convective asymmetry which could induce
a jog to the right. The track forecast is closest to the HCCA
consensus.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 2728C for the next 18 hours,
while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear,
although the cyclone will remain in a drier than optimal mid-level
environment keeping the storm size smaller than average. Despite
the dry mid-level airmass Kiko will be moving through, the other
factors still appear favorable for some slight intensification, so
the latest intensity forecast still shows a little short-term
strengthening. This forecast also fits in with the possibility for
Kiko to develop annular characteristics which could keep it stronger
than the forecast intensity guidance. Thereafter, Kiko will move
over slightly cooler waters and an even drier mid-level environment.
These less favorable conditions should begin a gradual weakening
trend, in spite of the very light vertical wind shear. Waters below
26 C await Kiko's track after Monday, with west-southwesterly
vertical wind shear increasing steadily to more than 30 kt by
Wednesday, making it more likely the nearby dry air gets imported
into Kiko's small core. The increasingly hostile environment should
lead to rapid weakening of the tropical cyclone as it approaches
the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast. The official
intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous
advisory cycle, but remains on the higher end of the intensity aids
through 48 hours. The intensity forecast then trends closer to the
middle of the intensity consensus envelope by Monday, and then
trends lower as Kiko should convectively sputter while moving very
close to the eastern end of the Hawaiian Island chain as a weakening
tropical storm.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. However, it is too soon to
determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and
interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 14.2N 137.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roth/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 051435
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

...KIKO NOW MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 137.1W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Kiko.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 137.1 West. Kiko is now moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
expected during the next 48 hours followed by weakening by early
next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin reaching the
Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 051435
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 136.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 137.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 050859
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025

The satellite presentation of Kiko has slowly deteriorated this
evening, with the eye remaining mostly obscured by a central dense
overcast with cloud top temperatures of -65 to -80C. A timely
05/0313Z WSFM microwave pass was helpful in locating the low-level
center of Kiko, with the image also showing hints that an outer
eyewall may be forming as part of an eyewall replacement cycle,
which is possible considering the favorable environmental conditions
the cyclone is traversing at the moment. The most recent
conventional satellite images seem to lend credence to this
possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, with an eye beginning
to re-develop and a deep convective ring developing around it. The
most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 5.5/102 kt respectively, while the
objective AiDT and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between
98 and 115 kt through the evening. Based on a blend of these data
and accounting for recent satellite trends, the initial intensity
has been held at 110 kt for this advisory, with Kiko remaining a
strong category 3 hurricane.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 kt. A gradual turn
toward the west-northwest is expected to begin later tonight or
Friday, as the western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of
the cyclone is eroded by developing upper-level low north of Hawaii.
This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual increase
in forward speed is forecast through the weekend and into early next
week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of the subtropical
ridge to the northeast and toward a westward moving upper-level low
to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest
track forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast through
day 3 due to a delay in Kiko’s west-northwest turn, then very
similar to the previous track on days 4 and 5. The track forecast
is closest to the TVCE and EMXI aids and to the south of the HCCA
and FSSE consensus.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 24 hours,
while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear,
although the cyclone will remain in a drier than optimal mid-level
environment. Despite the dry mid-level airmass Kiko will be moving
through, the other factors appear favorable for some slight
intensification, provided that the eyewall replacement cycle which
is likely ongoing, completes. From 24 hours to 60 hours, Kiko will
move over slightly cooler waters of 26 to 27C and into a drier
mid-level environment with humidity levels below 50 percent. These
less favorable conditions should lead to gradual weakening of the
system, despite the continued very light vertical wind shear.
Beginning on day 3 and continuing through day 5, the cyclone will be
move over cooler water near or slightly below 26C, with
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear ramping up steadily to more
than 30 kt by day 5, and mid-level moisture will plummet below 40
percent. The increasingly hostile environment should lead to rapid
weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands
from the east-southeast. The official intensity forecast has been
lowered slightly from the previous advisory cycle, but remains on
the higher end of the intensity aids through 60 hours, due to the
continued potential for Kiko to develop annular characteristics.
The intensity forecast then trends closer middle of the intensity
consensus envelop by days 3 through 5, with Kiko forecast to be a
tropical storm by day 5 as it moves very close to the eastern end of
the Hawaiian Island chain.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts
from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to
determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and
interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.9N 136.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 14.2N 137.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 15.3N 141.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 16.0N 143.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 16.8N 145.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 17.7N 147.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 19.7N 151.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 21.4N 155.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 050858
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025

...KIKO REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WELL TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 136.2W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Kiko.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 136.2 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later tonight or Friday, with this motion
forecast to continue through the weekend with a slight increase in
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight and
Friday, followed by slow weakening Friday night through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin reaching the
Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 050858
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 136.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 105SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 136.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 135.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.2N 137.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 141.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 143.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.8N 145.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.7N 147.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 151.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 21.4N 155.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 136.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 050256
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025

The satellite presentation of Kiko has degraded considerably since
the previous advisory, with the once warm and nearly cloud free eye,
now obscured by a central dense overcast with cloud top temperatures
of -65 to -80C. Given the mostly favorable environment that the
cyclone is traversing, it is likely that Kiko is once again
undergoing an eyewall replacement. The most recent subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 6.0/115 kt
and 5.5/102 kt respectively, while the objective estimates from
UW-CIMSS have ranged between 101 and 117 kt during the past several
hours. Based on a blend of these data and accounting for the
degradation in satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been
lowered to 110 kt for this advisory, and Kiko is now a category 3
hurricane.

Kiko is moving just north of due west, or 275 degrees, at 8 kt. A
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and
Friday, as the western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of
the cyclone is eroded by developing upper-level low north of Hawaii.
This general motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed
is forecast to continue over the weekend and through early next
week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of the subtropical
ridge to the northeast and toward a westward moving upper-level low
to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest
track forecast is very close to the previous forecast through 60
hours, and slightly to the north of the previous forecast for days 3
through 5, following the latest guidance trends. The track forecast
is closest to the TVCE consensus aid, and is to the south of the
HCCA and FSSE consensus aids.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 24 hours,
while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear and in a
somewhat drier than optimal mid-level environment. Despite the dry
mid-level airmass, the mostly favorable environment could lead to
some slight intensification tonight and Friday, provided that the
eyewall replacement cycle which is likely ongoing, completes.
Beyond 24 hours through day 3, Kiko will move over slightly cooler
waters of 26 to 27C and into a drier mid-level environment with
humidity levels below 50 percent. Despite very light vertical wind
shear, these less favorable conditions should lead to gradual
weakening of the cyclone. By days 4 and 5, Kiko will be moving over
cooler water near or slightly below 26C, with west-southwesterly
vertical wind shear ramping up to more than 30 kt by day 5, while
mid-level moisture also plummets below 40 percent. The increasingly
hostile environment should lead to rapid weakening of Kiko as the
cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast.
The official intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the
previous advisory cycle, but remains on the higher end or slightly
above the intensity aids through day 3 due to the continued
potential for Kiko to develop annular characteristics. The
intensity forecast then trends closer to the intensity consensus aid
HCCA by days 4 and 5, with Kiko forecast to be a tropical storm by
day 5 as it nears the eastern end of the Hawaiian Island chain.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts
from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to
determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and
interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 13.9N 135.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 17.6N 146.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 19.3N 150.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 21.0N 154.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 050255
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST THU SEP 04 2025

...KIKO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 135.4W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KIKO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 135.4 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH THIS MOTION
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB (28.17 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE KIKO COULD BEGIN REACHING THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU, HAWAII.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 050254
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 135.4W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 135.4W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 135.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.6N 146.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.3N 150.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 154.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 135.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 042055
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025

...KIKO STILL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A LITTLE
STRONGER...
...INTEREST IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR KIKO'S
PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 134.6W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Kiko.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 134.6 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight, followed by a turn to the west-northwest
on Friday through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected in the
next two to three days, but Kiko is expected to remain a major
hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin reaching the
Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kleebauer/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 042056
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM HST THU SEP 04 2025

RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES KIKO'S PRESENTATION IS
IMPROVING AS THE PREVIOUS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC) PROCESS
IS LIKELY IN ITS FINAL STAGES OF CONCLUDING, WITH THE EYE BEGINNING
TO CLEAR OUT. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT
T6.0/115 KT, WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ONLY STARTING TO
INCREASE AGAIN. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR NOW WILL REMAIN 115
KNOTS.

NOW THAT KIKO IS COMPLETING ITS EWRC, SOME REINTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAINING BETWEEN 27-28 C WITH MODEST
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. PREVIOUS FORECASTS FROM THE INTERPOLATED
INTENSITY AIDS WERE BELOW THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. HOWEVER, THIS
AREA OF THE PACIFIC HAS HISTORICALLY HAD A LOW BIAS WHEN IT COMES TO
THE INTENSITY FORECASTS WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONES DEVELOP A MORE
ANNULAR STRUCTURE, WHICH THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR.
AS A RESULT, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED OVER THE
FIRST 72 HOURS, ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND 72 HOURS,
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES QUICKLY, AND THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
OVER SUB-26 C SSTS. THIS SHOULD HASTEN WEAKENING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST, WHICH FALLS BACK IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS.

KIKO WILL RIDE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC LEADING TO A CONTINUED WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
A FORWARD PROPAGATION LIKELY TO SETTLE BETWEEN 8-12 KTS OVER THIS
TIME FRAME. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORWARD SPEED WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS, WITH THE HURRICANE MOVING A BIT MORE POLEWARD AS IT
APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE ISLANDS ERODES THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND JUST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. KIKO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM WIND AND RAINFALL IS INCREASING. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 134.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 20.3N 154.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 042052
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 134.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 134.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 134.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 65SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 20.3N 154.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 65NE 40SE 35SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 134.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 041458
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM HST THU SEP 04 2025

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIKO CONTINUES WITH A WEAKER DEPICTION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING, BUT BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
STABILIZATION IN THE CORE WITH A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE WRAP WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE EYEWALL. IR SATELLITE AND ACCOMPANYING
DVORAK IMAGERY INDICATES A LIKELY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC)
OCCURRING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, LEADING TO THE MARGINAL
DEGRADATION OF THE STORMS PRESENTATION. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE EACH
6.0/115 KT, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN 108 AND 127 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST DATA FROM BOTH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY,
HOWEVER KIKO STILL REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.

WITH KIKO'S EWRC ANTICIPATED TO BE COMPLETED LATER TODAY, THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR KIKO'S INNER-CORE TO STABILIZE. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING, THE LATEST
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE HURRICANE RE-INTENSIFYING AFTER THE
EWRC COMPLETES IN THE SHORT-TERM. THEREAFTER, THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR KIKO TO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP
ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS, WHICH OFTEN ALLOWS A HURRICANE TO REMAIN
STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY (MPI) THAN
WHAT THE MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS WOULD TYPICALLY ALLOW. THE
SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY ABOVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE INTERPOLATED INTENSITY AIDS, WHICH ARE SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY
THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RAW OUTPUT FROM
BOTH HAFS-A/B SHOW KIKO MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THAT IS WHAT WILL BE REFLECTED IN THIS
LATEST FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS, KIKO'S ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASING BELOW 26 C. THUS, MORE
PRONOUNCED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM DAYS 3-5, WITH THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FALLING BACK IN LINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS
INTENSITY AIDS.

KIKO IS MOVING DUE WEST, OR 270 DEGREES, AT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AFTERWARDS,
THIS RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE ON ITS WESTERN SIDE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING IN TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. THUS, KIKO SHOULD BEGIN TO
GAIN MORE LATITUDE AFTER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND MAINTAIN A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE
SHORT-TERM, THOUGH SPREAD IN THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AIDS
INCREASES TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ULTIMATELY, THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR ONE, JUST A LITTLE FASTER DUE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE UPDATES.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. KIKO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM WIND AND RAINFALL IS INCREASING. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 13.8N 133.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 134.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.3N 136.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 18.3N 148.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 19.9N 152.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 041456
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025

...KIKO A LITTLE WEAKER, BUT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES
WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 133.7W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1675 MI...2690 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 133.7 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. On Friday, Kiko is expected to turn
west-northwestward and maintain this motion for the following few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected in the
next two to three days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kleebauer/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 041455
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 133.7W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 133.7W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 133.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 134.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.3N 136.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.3N 148.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.9N 152.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 133.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 13.8N 132.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 132.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.9N 134.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.1N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.5N 137.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.0N 139.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.7N 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.4N 142.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.8N 146.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.2N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 133.1W.
04SEP25. HURRICANE 11E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1339 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 040851
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025

...KIKO HEADING WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 133.0W
ABOUT 1520 MI...2440 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1720 MI...2765 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 133.0 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on Friday, with a gradual increase in
forward speed expected over the weekend as Kiko approaches the
Hawaiian Islands from the east.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening Friday
through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 040852
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 PM HST WED SEP 03 2025

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIKO HAS DEGRADED SOME SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE EYE NOW MOSTLY OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -80C. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING, IT IS
LIKELY THAT KIKO IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AT THE
MOMENT. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.0/115 KT AND 6.5/127 KT
RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE
RANGED BETWEEN 111 AND 132 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED
ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 125
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, AND KIKO REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE.

KIKO IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265 DEGREES, AT 7 KT.
THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII BEGINS
TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH THIS
GENERAL MOTION THEN CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS
SOME ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS,
ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST, WHICH REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.

KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF 27A 28C AND INFLUENCED BY
MOSTLY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS. THE SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENTAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DRIER THAN OPTIMAL,
HOVERING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 50 PERCENT BY 60 HOURS. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT
DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS, THE LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN KIKO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE
THROUGH DAY 3. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THIS TIME. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMMETING
BELOW 40 PERCENT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY AND
EVENTUALLY RAPID WEAKENING OF KIKO AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. KIKO WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS THAT CAN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANNULAR
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG ITS APPROACH, WHICH
CAN SLOW THE RATE OF WEAKENING. AS A RESULT, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGHER END OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY
AIDS THROUGH DAY 5, AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 13.7N 133.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 15.7N 140.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.4N 142.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 17.8N 146.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 19.2N 151.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 040851
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 133.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 133.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 132.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 140.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 142.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 146.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 19.2N 151.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 133.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 131.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 131.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.8N 133.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.9N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.1N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.6N 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.1N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.7N 141.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.1N 145.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.5N 149.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 132.4W.
04SEP25. HURRICANE 11E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1378 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 040253
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025

Kiko remains a powerful category 4 hurricane, with satellite images
showing a well-defined eye surrounded by a very cold ring of deep
convection with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -85C. The most
recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 6.5/127 kt respectively, while the objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 119 and 132 kt during
the past several hours. Based on a blend of these data, the initial
intensity has been raised to 125 kt for this advisory.

Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 8 kt.
This general westward motion is expected to continue through
Thursday night, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical
ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest
is forecast on Friday as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii
begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with
this general motion then continuing through the weekend with a
gradual increase in forward speed. There remains some along-track
and cross track spread among the global models, although the spread
has decreased considerably during the past 24 hours. The official
track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest
multi-model consensus aids and is nearly on top of, but slightly
slower than, the previous forecast track.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly
light vertical wind shear through around 60 to 72 hours. The
surrounding environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than
optimal, hovering between 50 and 60 percent during the next couple
of days, before dropping below 50 percent by day 3. Despite the
somewhat dry mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and
warm sea surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a major
hurricane through day 3. There will likely be some fluctuations in
strength during the next several days with the potential for eyewall
replacement cycles during this time. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone
will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing
westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting
below 40 percent. These factors should lead to steady and
eventually rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the
Hawaiian Islands from the east. Kiko will be influenced by
environmental factors that can lead to the development of annular
characteristics along its approach, which can slow the rate of
weakening. As a result, the official intensity forecast remains on
the higher end or slightly above the intensity aids through day 5,
and is very close to the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 132.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.8N 133.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 13.9N 135.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 14.1N 136.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 14.6N 138.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 15.1N 139.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 15.7N 141.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 17.1N 145.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 149.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 040252
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST WED SEP 03 2025

...KIKO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 132.3W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 132.3 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS KIKO APPROACHES THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB (27.88 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 040251
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 132.3W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 132.3W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 131.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.8N 133.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 135.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.1N 136.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.6N 138.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 139.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 141.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.1N 145.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 149.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 132.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 032053
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM HST WED SEP 03 2025

KIKO HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 AND 6.0 FROM
TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE MOST RECENT ADT ESTIMATE UP TO 117
KNOTS, AND A RAW DATA T NUMBER EVEN HIGHER OF 6.4. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS THUS SET AT THE HIGHER END OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AT 115 KNOTS.

KIKO IS MOVING DUE WEST, OR 270 DEGREES, AT 8 KNOTS. THE FORECAST
TRACK REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THIS ADVISORY. A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST BY DAY 3 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII ERODES
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH THIS GENERAL
MOTION THEN CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE
REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 3. AFTER THAT TIME, THE
ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DOES INCREASE BUT IS STILL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS, NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
MODEL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS.

KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. KIKO'S INTENSITY WILL THEREFORE LIKELY BE
GOVERNED BY INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES. KIKO IS CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
LAST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, IT'S POSSIBLE KIKO
MAY UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT, THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
ALSO ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO DEVELOP ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THUS,
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE,
NOT THAT FAR OFF THE RELIABLE HCCA CONSENSUS AID OVER THE FIRST 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, COOLER SSTS AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.9N 131.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.0N 132.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 14.2N 136.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BANN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 032051
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025

...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 131.6W
ABOUT 1600 MI...2580 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 131.6 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next few days with a gradual shift towards the
west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible over the next day or two followed by fluctuations
in intensity.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Bann


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 032051
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 132.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 136.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 131.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BANN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 031451
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM HST WED SEP 03 2025


KIKO IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE WITH AN EYE CLEARING
OUT OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING
THE EYE BEING SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE MOST
RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB WERE BOTH 5.0/90 KT AT 12Z BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE STRUCTURE
HAS IMPROVED ON SATELLITE WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE WAS 99
KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 95 KT AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE ESTIMATES.

KIKO IS MOVING DUE WEST, OR 270 DEGREES, AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS
THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH
AND NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY DAY
3 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII ERODES THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE WAS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 3. AFTER THAT TIME, THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SPREAD IN BOTH THE ALONG- AND
CROSS-TRACK DIRECTIONS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO THE HCCA AND GDMI MODEL SOLUTIONS AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS.

KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. KIKO'S INTENSITY WILL THEREFORE LIKELY
BE GOVERNED BY INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES. GIVEN ITS CURRENT
SINGLE EYE-WALL STRUCTURE SEEN ON EARLIER AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
KIKO APPEARS POISED TO INTENSIFY MORE IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE CLOSEST TO THE HAFS-A AND HAFS-B FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, COOLER SSTS AND AN INCREASE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.9N 130.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.2N 135.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 14.6N 136.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 15.2N 140.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 16.8N 143.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 18.5N 147.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BANN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031450
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM HST WED SEP 03 2025

...KIKO EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY WELL
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 130.6W
ABOUT 1665 MI...2680 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.6 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB (28.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BANN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 031449
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 135.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.6N 136.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.2N 140.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 143.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 147.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 130.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BANN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 13.8N 129.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 129.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.8N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.9N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.0N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.2N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.5N 137.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.0N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.3N 142.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5N 145.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 130.3W.
03SEP25. HURRICANE 11E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1494 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030900
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025

The low-level center of Kiko remained embedded in a large central
dense overcast through most of the past 12 hours, with only
the most recent satellite images now showing a more well-defined
eye developing surrounded by a ring of deep convection. The most
recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were both 5.0/90 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
have ranged between 83 and 92 kt during the past several hours.
Based on these data and little overall change in the satellite
presentation since the previous advisory cycle, the initial
intensity has been held at 90 kt.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, as
the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north
and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day
3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the
western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion
then continuing through day 5. There remains some along-track
spread among the global models, particularly beyond 24 hours, with
some cross track spread also noted toward the end of the forecast
resulting from differences in the handling of the upper-level trough
and subtropical ridge to the north of Kiko. The official track
forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest
multi-model consensus aids and is nearly identical to the previous
advisory.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by most
light vertical wind shear through day 3. The surrounding
environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal,
hovering between 50 and 60 percent through 60 hours, then trending
below 50 percent by days 3 through 5. Despite the drier mid-level
airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface
temperatures should maintain Kiko as a strong hurricane, with the
cyclone forecast to become a major hurricane on Wednesday and remain
at that status through day 3. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will
begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly
vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40
percent. These factors should lead to a steady weakening, however,
Kiko is still forecast to be a hurricane on day 5. The official
forecast remains on the higher end of the intensity guidance suite,
and is most closely aligned with a blend of the FSSE/HCCA intensity
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 13.8N 130.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 13.8N 131.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 14.2N 135.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 16.3N 142.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 17.5N 145.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030852
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025

...KIKO MAINTAINS CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 130.1W
ABOUT 1700 MI...2735 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 130.1 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days. A gradual turn
toward the west-northwest is expected late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and
Kiko is forecast to become a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030852
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.1W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.1W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 131.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 135.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 142.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 145.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 109.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2025 0 19.9N 109.4W 1007 25
1200UTC 03.09.2025 12 22.1N 111.8W 1006 30
0000UTC 04.09.2025 24 22.2N 113.9W 1004 27
1200UTC 04.09.2025 36 22.7N 114.8W 1005 24
0000UTC 05.09.2025 48 23.3N 115.5W 1005 21
1200UTC 05.09.2025 60 23.5N 115.9W 1007 21
0000UTC 06.09.2025 72 23.3N 115.6W 1008 19
1200UTC 06.09.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 129.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2025 0 13.8N 129.1W 983 58
1200UTC 03.09.2025 12 13.9N 130.4W 982 55
0000UTC 04.09.2025 24 14.1N 132.0W 980 56
1200UTC 04.09.2025 36 14.2N 133.8W 979 59
0000UTC 05.09.2025 48 14.2N 135.6W 981 52
1200UTC 05.09.2025 60 14.5N 137.3W 982 54
0000UTC 06.09.2025 72 15.0N 139.1W 984 52
1200UTC 06.09.2025 84 15.6N 140.6W 989 50
0000UTC 07.09.2025 96 16.6N 142.3W 990 53
1200UTC 07.09.2025 108 17.3N 144.1W 993 50
0000UTC 08.09.2025 120 18.1N 146.1W 996 47
1200UTC 08.09.2025 132 18.9N 148.4W 1000 44
0000UTC 09.09.2025 144 19.5N 150.7W 1002 40
1200UTC 09.09.2025 156 20.0N 152.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 10.09.2025 168 20.5N 154.3W 1002 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.5N 17.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2025 108 17.5N 17.5W 1005 35
0000UTC 08.09.2025 120 18.8N 19.7W 1007 30
1200UTC 08.09.2025 132 19.0N 21.8W 1007 30
0000UTC 09.09.2025 144 20.0N 24.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 09.09.2025 156 20.6N 26.9W 1010 34
0000UTC 10.09.2025 168 20.8N 29.3W 1012 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.3N 51.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2025 132 13.3N 51.7W 1011 27
0000UTC 09.09.2025 144 14.1N 54.6W 1010 29
1200UTC 09.09.2025 156 15.0N 57.4W 1011 31
0000UTC 10.09.2025 168 16.0N 59.5W 1010 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030400


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 030400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 109.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.09.2025 19.9N 109.4W WEAK
12UTC 03.09.2025 22.1N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2025 22.2N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2025 22.7N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2025 23.3N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2025 23.5N 115.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2025 23.3N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 129.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.09.2025 13.8N 129.1W MODERATE
12UTC 03.09.2025 13.9N 130.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2025 14.1N 132.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2025 14.2N 133.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2025 14.2N 135.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2025 14.5N 137.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2025 15.0N 139.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2025 15.6N 140.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2025 16.6N 142.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2025 17.3N 144.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2025 18.1N 146.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2025 18.9N 148.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2025 19.5N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2025 20.0N 152.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2025 20.5N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.5N 17.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2025 17.5N 17.5W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2025 18.8N 19.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2025 19.0N 21.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2025 20.0N 24.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2025 20.6N 26.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2025 20.8N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.3N 51.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2025 13.3N 51.7W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2025 14.1N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2025 15.0N 57.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2025 16.0N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030400


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025

...KIKO INTENSIFIES TO CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 129.5W
ABOUT 1740 MI...2800 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 129.5 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days. A gradual turn
toward the west-northwest is expected late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Kiko is forecast to become a major hurricane on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030233
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025

Recent satellite images show that the low-level center of Kiko is
now obscured by a large central dense overcast, possibly due to an
increase in northeasterly vertical wind shear, with the outflow now
somewhat restricted in the eastern semi-circle. A 02/2155Z AMRS2
microwave pass indicated that the cyclone continues to have a
well-defined inner-core, with a break in the eyewall evident in the
northwest quadrant at that time. The most recent subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt,
while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 72
and 92 kt during the past several hours. Taking a blend of these
data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been raised to 90
kt.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 60 hours or so, as
the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north
and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day
3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the
western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion
then continuing through day 5. There remains considerable
along-track spread among the global models, with the GFS and ECMWF
still showing a 240 n mi difference in position on day 5. The
official track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of
the latest multi-model consensus aids and is nearly on top of the
previous advisory, but with a slightly faster forward speed.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by most
light vertical wind shear through day 3. The surrounding
environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal,
hovering between 50 and 60 percent through day 3, then trending
below 50 percent by days 4 and 5. Despite the drier mid-level
airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface
temperatures should maintain Kiko as a robust hurricane through day
3, with it likely being a major hurricane for much of that time. By
days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with
gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear. This should lead
to a steady weakening trend, but Kiko is still forecast to be a
hurricane at day 5. The official forecast is on the higher end of
the intensity guidance suite, and is most closely aligned with the
HCCA and regional hurricane model intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 13.8N 129.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 13.9N 133.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 14.1N 135.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 14.4N 136.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 16.1N 141.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 17.3N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030232
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 133.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 135.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.4N 136.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 141.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.3N 144.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 129.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 022038
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 02 2025

...HURRICANE KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 128.9W
ABOUT 1775 MI...2855 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.9 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND KIKO IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB (28.94 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 022039
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 02 2025

THE EYE OF KIKO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON
VISIBLE AND INFRARED GOES-18 IMAGERY. WHILE THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KT) AND 5.0 (90 KT) ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 H AGO,
THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE INCREASED, AND
NOW RANGE FROM 70-85 KT. THE LATEST SATCON AND AIDT MEASUREMENTS
ARE BOTH 83 KT, AND THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO WARM AND BECOME BETTER
DEFINED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

KIKO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD, OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
MAIN STEERING FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE NORTH OF KIKO. A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST BY DAYS 3 AND 4 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII
BEGINS TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE
REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE MODEL SUITE. THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS SPED UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST, AND IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO, BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN, THE LATEST TVCE CONSENSUS AND GFEX.

THROUGH THE NEXT 48 H, KIKO SHOULD REMAIN OVER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR,
BUT THE RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS MAKING THE
INTENSITY FORECAST TRICKY. THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL SPREAD AMONG
THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS. BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 4, WATER
TEMPERATURES ALONG KIKO'S PATH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WHILE IT ALSO
MOVES INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE
THROUGH DAY 3, BUT IS NOW CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 13.9N 128.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.8N 129.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.8N 131.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.1N 133.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 14.2N 135.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 15.5N 139.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 16.7N 142.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 022036 CCA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025

CORRECTED FOR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 128.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 128.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 129.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 131.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 133.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 135.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.7N 142.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 128.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 022032
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 128.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 128.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 129.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 131.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 133.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 135.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.7N 142.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 128.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 021439
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 AM HST TUE SEP 02 2025

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, KIKO'S EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON NIGHTTIME
VISIBLE IMAGERY, AND AT TIMES IT HAS ALSO SHOWED UP IN THE INFRARED
IMAGERY. THE SMALL HURRICANE IS CLEARLY INTENSIFYING. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGE FROM 77-90 KT,
WHILE THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE
60-74 KT RANGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT REPRESENTS
AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES.

KIKO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD, OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
MAIN STEERING FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE NORTH OF KIKO. A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST BY DAYS 3 AND 4 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII
BEGINS TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE
REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE MODEL SUITE, BUT NOT
AS MUCH SPREAD AS YESTERDAY, AND THE DAY 5 POSITIONS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL DAY 5 POSITION IS
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THOSE MODELS. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH LIES
CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS.

THROUGH THE NEXT 48 H, KIKO SHOULD REMAIN OVER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR
OF 10-15 KT. THE ENVIRONMENTAL AIR IS A BIT DRY AND STABLE, AND
THIS MIGHT PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, STEADY
STRENGTHENING STILL APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY DAY
4, KIKO WILL REACH SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AS IT MOVES
INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KT, AND IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH DAY 3. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY IN
4-5 DAYS WHEN KIKO REACHES THE COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR, BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL MAINTAINS KIKO AT HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH
DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 13.8N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 132.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 14.1N 134.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 14.4N 135.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 15.3N 138.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.4N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 021436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025

...HURRICANE KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 128.3W
ABOUT 1815 MI...2920 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 128.3 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through Wednesday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest
is expected late this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional steady strengthening is expected
during the next day or two, and Kiko could become a major hurricane
by Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 021436
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.3W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.3W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 132.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 134.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.4N 135.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 138.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 141.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 128.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020851
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025

...KIKO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 127.9W
ABOUT 1840 MI...2965 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 127.9 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020852
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 PM HST MON SEP 01 2025

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIKO HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING INNER-CORE AND HINTS
OF AN EYE EVIDENT AT TIMES IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. THE MOST
RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB WERE BOTH 4.0/65 KT. THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE
RANGED BETWEEN 53 AND 71 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT, MAKING KIKO A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE.

KIKO IS MOVING DUE WEST, OR 270 DEGREES, AT 6 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY DAYS 4
AND 5 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII BEGINS TO ERODE THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DAY 5 POSITIONS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AIDS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 60
HOURS, THEN SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST
FROM DAY 3 ONWARD.

KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF 27A 28C AND INFLUENCED BY
MOSTLY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH DAY 4. THE SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENTAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, REMAINING BETWEEN
50 AND 60 PERCENT THROUGH DAY 3, THEN TRENDING BELOW 50 PERCENT BY
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLE, AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CHANGE AND HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD
ACCORDINGLY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGHER
END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE
FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.8N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 128.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 13.8N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 13.8N 130.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 13.8N 131.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 133.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 15.0N 137.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 16.0N 140.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020850
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 128.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 129.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 130.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 131.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 133.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 137.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 140.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 127.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020249
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST MON SEP 01 2025

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIKO HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS
OF ESTABLISHING A MORE WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE, WITH
GLIMPSES OF AN EYE EVIDENT AT TIMES IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.
THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE 3.5/55 KT AND 4.0/65 KT, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 45 AND 57 KT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TAKING A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KT.

KIKO IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265 DEGREES, AT 6 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII
BEGINS TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS NEARLY 500 N MI BY 120 HOURS WITH THE
CMC THE FARTHEST EAST, THE UKMET THE FARTHEST WEST, AND THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FALLING IN BETWEEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS
AND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

KIKO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF 2728C AND INFLUENCED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH DAY 5. THE SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENTAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, REMAINING BETWEEN 50 AND 60
PERCENT AND TRENDING GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH DAY 5. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF KIKO AND PROXIMITY TO COOLER WATERS TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALSO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER,
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CHANGE AND HAS BEEN NUDGED
DOWN ACCORDINGLY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHER
THAN MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED
WITH A BLEND OF THE HCCA/FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 13.8N 127.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.8N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020248
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025

...KIKO MAINTAINS STRENGTH AND CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 127.3W
ABOUT 1880 MI...3025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 127.3 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020248
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.3W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 20SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.3W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.8N 128.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 127.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 012039
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025

...KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 126.7W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 126.7 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn
back toward the west on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane by
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 012040
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 AM HST MON SEP 01 2025

KIKO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING NOTED
IN 1-MINUTE GOES-18 IMAGERY. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 55-65 KT WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE DATA AND IMPROVING APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

KIKO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SPEED, WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 255/6 KT. A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KIKO'S NORTH SHOULD CAUSE THIS GENERAL MOTION
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, KIKO SHOULD
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST DUE TO ITS POSITION DUE SOUTH OF THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE RIDGE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS KIKO STARTS TO REACH THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE. THERE IS VERY LARGE
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, MEANING THAT THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN KIKO'S FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLOWER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND A BIT TO THE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT NOT AS SLOW AS MOST OF THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODELS. THIS LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
12Z ECMWF MODEL.

RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
KIKO TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF KIKO
WERE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE NHC FORECAST TRACK, IT COULD ENCOUNTER
STRONGER SHEAR IN 1-2 DAYS, AS THE MODELS SHOW STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SOUTH OF ABOUT 13N LATITUDE. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT
COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE PEAK FORECAST
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED A BIT TO SHOW A PEAK OF 95 KT IN 60-72
HOURS. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE LATEST HCCA AND HIGH RESOLUTION
HURRICANE MODELS, SOME OF WHICH BRING KIKO TO MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES
NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.8N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.7N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.6N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.6N 130.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 13.6N 131.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 13.8N 133.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 14.3N 138.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 15.2N 141.6W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 012038
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.7N 127.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.6N 128.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.6N 130.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.6N 131.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 133.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N 138.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.2N 141.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 126.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 011437
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 AM HST MON SEP 01 2025

KIKO HAS INTENSIFIED OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS A COMPACT STORM. A TIMELY
GMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A CLOSED CYAN RING AROUND THE CENTER IN
THE 37-GHZ IMAGE. THE SYSTEMA S COMPACT SIZE AND IMPROVING CORE
STRUCTURE SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE IS CONSOLIDATING, WHICH OFTEN
PRECEDES RAPID INTENSIFICATION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE 3.0/45 KT AND FROM SAB ARE 4.0/64 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 40A 50 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THIS RANGE OF DATA AND THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

KIKO IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265/7 KT, STEERED BY A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT
CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO A
POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONSISTENT,
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AMONG THE
MODELS. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
CONTINUES TO LEAN HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND EMXI AIDS,
WHICH ARE NEAR THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

DESPITE SOMEWHAT DRIER MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS ALONG ITS FORECAST
TRACK, THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND KIKOA S SMALL COMPACT CORE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITIES
FROM THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH
AROUND A 30A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS, PLACING THE INTENSITY NEAR THE UPPER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THAT PERIOD. KIKOA S INTENSITY
IS
FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 85 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH DAY 5, WHICH IS NEAR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.0N 126.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 13.6N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 13.5N 130.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 13.6N 133.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 13.7N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 14.0N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 14.8N 141.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 011436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025

...KIKO FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 126.3W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 126.3 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours, and Kiko
is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 011435
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 125.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.8N 127.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.6N 128.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.5N 130.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 133.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.7N 135.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 14.0N 138.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 14.8N 141.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 126.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 010839
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

Kiko remains a compact tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows
deep convection developing over the center with cloud top
temperatures around -80 C and curved bands wrapping into the
circulation. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB remain at 3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates range from 35
to 45 kt. A 0536 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated peak winds near 34 kt on
the northern side of the storm. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Kiko is now moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt, steered by a
mid-level subtropical ridge located to the north. This general
motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours, followed by a
more westward track through about 96 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone
should gradually turn toward the west-northwest as it crosses into
the central Pacific basin between days 4 and 5 due to a potential
weakness in the subtropical ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands.
While the overall synoptic pattern is consistent, there remains
considerable spread in the along-track speed among the models. The
NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and leans
heavily on a blend of the HCCA and EMXI aids, which lie on the
faster side of the guidance envelope.

Light vertical wind shear and modest mid-level moisture should
support strengthening during the next few days, although Kiko’s
forecast track keeps it near the 26 C isotherm and into a somewhat
drier environment after midweek. Based on the latest SHIPS guidance
and the cyclone’s small, compact core, a period of more rapid
intensification cannot be ruled out through midweek. Kiko is
forecast to become a hurricane within 36 hours and peak at 85 kt in
72 hours, which is near the higher end of the guidance envelope.
Beyond that time, any increase in latitude would likely bring the
storm over cooler waters, inhibiting any additional significant
strengthening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.1N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 13.9N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.5N 129.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 13.5N 131.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 13.5N 132.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 13.6N 134.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 13.9N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 14.4N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 010837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

...KIKO HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 125.5W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 125.5 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is expected, and Kiko is forecast to become a
hurricane within the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 010837
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.9N 126.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.5N 129.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.5N 131.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.5N 132.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.6N 134.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 13.9N 138.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 14.4N 141.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 124.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2025 0 14.5N 124.2W 1006 24
1200UTC 01.09.2025 12 14.7N 126.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 02.09.2025 24 14.5N 128.1W 1005 28
1200UTC 02.09.2025 36 14.1N 129.7W 1005 32
0000UTC 03.09.2025 48 14.4N 131.2W 1005 30
1200UTC 03.09.2025 60 14.2N 132.9W 1005 29
0000UTC 04.09.2025 72 14.2N 134.7W 1005 29
1200UTC 04.09.2025 84 13.9N 136.9W 1005 30
0000UTC 05.09.2025 96 13.9N 139.0W 1004 29
1200UTC 05.09.2025 108 14.2N 140.9W 1005 31
0000UTC 06.09.2025 120 14.5N 142.9W 1004 30
1200UTC 06.09.2025 132 15.0N 144.7W 1004 36
0000UTC 07.09.2025 144 15.5N 146.7W 1004 35
1200UTC 07.09.2025 156 16.1N 148.3W 1004 38
0000UTC 08.09.2025 168 16.9N 150.3W 1004 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 30.0N 78.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2025 120 30.0N 78.3W 1010 26
1200UTC 06.09.2025 132 32.0N 77.2W 1012 28
0000UTC 07.09.2025 144 34.5N 75.3W 1012 28
1200UTC 07.09.2025 156 36.9N 72.2W 1013 35
0000UTC 08.09.2025 168 42.0N 65.6W 1017 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010404


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 010404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 124.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2025 14.5N 124.2W WEAK
12UTC 01.09.2025 14.7N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2025 14.5N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2025 14.1N 129.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2025 14.4N 131.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2025 14.2N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2025 14.2N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2025 13.9N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2025 13.9N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2025 14.2N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2025 14.5N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2025 15.0N 144.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2025 15.5N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2025 16.1N 148.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2025 16.9N 150.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 30.0N 78.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2025 30.0N 78.3W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2025 32.0N 77.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2025 34.5N 75.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2025 36.9N 72.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2025 42.0N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010404


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 010237
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0300 UTC MON SEP 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.6W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.6W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.4N 125.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 130.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 132.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.1N 134.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 138.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 141.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 010233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

...KIKO EXPECTED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 124.6W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 124.6 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and Kiko is
forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 010234
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
500 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2025

KIKO IS GRADUALLY ORGANIZING. THE TROPICAL STORM IS PRODUCING BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND ON ITS SOUTH SIDE. THE
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND
45 KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED
UPWARD TO 40 KT.

KIKO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 KT. AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD
KEEP KIKO ON A WESTWARD, OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST,
PATH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, BUT THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THEIR PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEEDS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE FASTER END OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND EMXI MODELS.
KIKO IS LIKELY TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN IN 4 TO 5
DAYS.

WHILE THE WIND SHEAR AROUND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE SURROUNDING MOISTURE AND SSTS ALONG
ITS FORECAST TRACK ARE JUST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE STORM.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY MODEL SOLUTIONS
THAT VARY FROM KIKO REMAINING A TROPICAL STORM TO BECOMING A MAJOR
HURRICANE. SINCE KIKO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE, IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE STORM SHOULD STRENGTHEN STEADILY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

KIKO IS CURRENTLY A COMPACT SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO GET
LARGER, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
SMALLER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.5N 124.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 14.1N 130.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 14.1N 132.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.1N 134.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 14.1N 138.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 14.5N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 010233
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0300 UTC MON SEP 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.6W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.6W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.4N 125.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 130.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 132.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.1N 134.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 138.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 141.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 312033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2025

...KIKO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 124.0W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 312033
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2025

KIKO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS,
WITH A BROAD CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES DID NOT SHOW
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SAMPLING ISSUES
AT WORK SINCE THE CENTRAL CORE OF KIKO IS SMALL. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE, AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT IN DEFERENCE TO THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SUGGEST THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ELONGATED EAST-WEST WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD
SWIRLS PRESENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/8 KT. KIKO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN
120W-155W, AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE KIKO TO MOVE WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH
OF WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION, THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN FORWARD SPEED WITH THE FASTER UKMET/ECMWF
BEING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE SLOWER GFS BY 120 H. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK SPLITS THIS SPEED DIFFERENCE, AND IT LIES JUST
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT SOUTH
OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER GENERALLY LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR WHILE
IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE AROUND 27C. AFTER
72 H, THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO A DRIER AIR MASS THAT
COULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING DESPITE THE OTHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
BASED ON THIS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS 72 H OF STRENGTHENING
FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT 96 AND 120 H. THERE ARE
TWO UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS FORECAST. FIRST, THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDICES OF THE SHIPS MODEL ARE NOTABLY ABOVE THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, AND THAT COMBINED WITH KIKO'S SMALL CORE
SUGGESTS THAT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 72 H. SECOND, AS MENTIONED EARLIER ANY DEVIATION OF THE
TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST PATH COULD PLACE THE
SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS THAT WOULD SLOW OR STOP STRENGTHENING. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AND IT LIES NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 14.4N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 312033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.0W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.0W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 124.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 311436
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

Satellite imagery and a recent AMSR2 pass show a curved band
wrapping around the western semicircle of the cyclone, along with a
burst of deep convection developing over the center where cloud tops
are near -80 C. The convective banding now wraps more than halfway
around the circulation, which, along with Dvorak current intensity
estimates of 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and up to 3.0/45 kt from SAB,
supports upgrading the system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an initial
intensity of 35 kt.

Kiko is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by a strong
subtropical ridge positioned to its north. This ridge is expected to
remain in place throughout the 5-day forecast period, maintaining a
general westward motion across the eastern Pacific and into the
central Pacific basin by late this week. The official track forecast
is nearly identical to the previous forecast and remains close to
the consensus aids.

Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist
mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear favor steady
strengthening during the next couple of days. Kiko is forecast to
reach hurricane intensity by around 48 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter,
the cyclones track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the potential
entrainment of mid-level dry air, could limit any additional
significant intensification. Also, any deviation of the track
slightly to the right of the forecast path could place the system
over cooler waters and further inhibit strengthening. The intensity
forecast is near the middle to higher end of the guidance envelope
through midweek, then trends closer to the consensus thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 14.4N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.5N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.4N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 14.2N 131.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 14.1N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 14.2N 137.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 14.2N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 311433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM KIKO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 123.1W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 123.1 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 311431
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1500 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.1W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.1W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 124.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.4N 126.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.2N 131.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 133.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 137.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 14.2N 140.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 123.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 310834
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula have become better organized over the past 12 hours. A
0507 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined low-level circulation
with peak winds near 25 kt. However, given the continued improvement
in the satellite presentation and higher subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, advisories
are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven-E with an initial
intensity of 30 kt.

The depression is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by
a strong subtropical ridge situated to its north. This ridge is
forecast to remain in place throughout the 5-day period, maintaining
a general westward motion across the western part of the eastern
Pacific basin and into the central Pacific basin late this week. The
official forecast track is close to the consensus aids.

Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist
mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear support steady
strengthening during the next few days. The depression is expected
to become a tropical storm later today, and could reach hurricane
strength by around 60 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter, the system’s
track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the possibility of some
mid-level dry air entrainment, could limit further intensification
later in the week. The intensity forecast is near the middle to
higher end of the guidance envelope through midweek, then trends
closer to the consensus thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 14.4N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 310832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 122.3W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 122.3 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 310831
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0900 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.3W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.3W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=