Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-25
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 014W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 24.4N 115.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 115.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.7N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.1N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.4N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.8N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 26.1N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 24.5N 115.0W.
05SEP25. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (LORENA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 050900
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Lorena has not produced organized convection near the center for the
last 18 h, and since the center is located over sea surface
temperatures between 24-25C there is little chance that convection
will re-develop. While the latest scatterometer overpasses missed
the center, satellite intensity estimates are quickly decreasing and
are now in the 25-35 kt range. Based on this, Lorena has
degenerated to a remnant low with winds near 30 kt. The system
should continue to weaken over the cold water, with dissipation
forecast by 72 h.

Lorena has moved little since the last advisory. Track model
guidance indicates that the remnant low should drift northward for
the next 12 h or so, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest
and then west-northwest. The new forecast track is similar to, but a
little south of, the previous track.

While Lorena is now a remnant low, the heavy rainfall threat
continues. Abundant moisture continues to stream northeastward away
from Lorena, and a surface trough seen in scatterometer data over
the Gulf of California between Loreto and Guymas is triggering a
large area of convection at this time. Significant rainfall and
flash flooding has already occurred over portions of Baja California
Sur, and the risk of life-threatening flash flooding will continue
across portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora through today, and
southern Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday.

This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash
flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products
from the Meteorological Service of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact
Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through tonight, which will
result in areas of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across northwest Mexico.

2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns
across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona
into Saturday.

3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the western coast of Baja California Sur through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 24.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 050859
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025

...LORENA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...
...MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA THROUGH TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 115.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur and Sonora, Mexico, should continue
to monitor the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding associated
with Lorena.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena
was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 115.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is currently nearly stationary. A slow
north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through
early Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest over
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the
remnant low is expected to dissipate by late Sunday or Sunday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja
California Sur and Sonora Mexico through today. Additional rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 12
inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far
southeast Baja California, southwestern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa
through tonight. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals
up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora. These
amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding.

Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with
isolated totals up to 4 inches, are expected across portions of
Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for
isolated to scattered flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions
of the west coast of Baja California Sur through today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash
flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products
from the Meteorological Service of Mexico.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 050859
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 115.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 115.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 115.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 115.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 24.5N 115.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 115.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.0N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.3N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.7N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.1N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.5N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 115.1W.
05SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 050238
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Lorena has not produced deep convection near its center since about
8 AM this morning. Waves of heavy showers and thunderstorms
continue to stream northeastward across Baja California Sur, Sonora,
and northern Sinaloa, but this activity cannot be directly linked
to Lorena's circulation. Weakening is assumed to have occurred
since the earlier aircraft and ASCAT data, and the intensity is set
at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers and objective
numbers (which are between 30 and 45 kt). With Lorena over cool
waters and southwesterly shear only expected to increase, deep
convection is not forecast to redevelop, and Lorena is likely to
become post-tropical Friday morning. Winds will continue to
steadily decrease, with the remnant low likely to dissipate by late
Sunday.

Lorena has been moving west of the dynamical model guidance over
the past 6 to 12 hours, and the best-performing track models since
this morning have been the simple shallow Trajectory and Beta
Advection (TABS) models. Given that the circulation will remain
shallow, the new NHC track forecast blends the TABS models with the
latest GFS-ECWMF mean and HCCA consensus aid. This puts the new
forecast west of the previous prediction by a somewhat noticeable
degree, showing more of a slow northwestward motion instead of
northward trajectory.

Abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward away from
Lorena even though it is weakening. Significant rainfall and flash
flooding has already occurred over portions of Baja California Sur,
and the risk of life-threatening flash flooding will continue across
portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora through Friday,
and southern Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact
Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. This will
increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across northwest Mexico.

2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns
across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona
into Saturday.

3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the western coast of Baja California Sur through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 24.6N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 25.0N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0000Z 25.3N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 25.7N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 26.1N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z 26.5N 117.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 050237
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 04 2025

...LORENA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL VERY SOON...
...MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 115.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur and Sonora, Mexico, should
continue to monitor the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Lorena.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 115.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through
early Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest over
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Lorena is
expected to become a remnant low by Friday morning. The remnant
low is likely to dissipate by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja
California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15
inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far
southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This
will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals
up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and
northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with
isolated totals up to 4 inches, are expected across portions of
Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for
isolated to scattered flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions
of the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 050237
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 115.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 115.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 115.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.3N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.7N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.1N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.5N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 24.4N 114.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 114.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.0N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.4N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.9N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.3N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.7N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 114.7W.
04SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 042034
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
200 PM MST Thu Sep 04 2025

Strong southwesterly wind shear and cold water temperatures have
taken their toll on Lorena. The convection has completely fallen
apart and detached itself from the low-level circulation today,
leaving an exposed swirl that is evident on GOES-18 visible
channels. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft, which was
just in the center, measured maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 52
kt, which corresponds to about 42 kt at the surface. The central
pressure is estimated at 996 mb based on dropsonde data from the
aircraft. Additionally, a recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 35-40
kt winds, mostly in the NW quadrant. The initial intensity
estimate, based on the aforementioned data, has been reduced to 45
kt.

Confidence is high that the cyclone will continue to weaken as it
moves over progressively colder water and into stronger
southwesterly wind shear. The timing of when Lorena is forecast to
weaken to a remnant low has been moved up to 24 h, but it could
occur sooner, as most of the convection has already been sheared off
well to the northeast of the low-level circulation. The latest NHC
track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left, or slightly
farther offshore of the Baja California peninsula, compared to the
previous NHC forecast, closer to the latest models.

Some large rainfall totals have already been observed across
portions of Baja California Sur, and the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding will continue across portions of the area through
Friday. Abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward
away from the cyclone. Because of that, there is still a
significant risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across
portions of Baja California Sur, Sonora, southern Arizona and New
Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact
Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. This will
increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across northwest Mexico.

2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns
across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona
into Saturday.

3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 24.6N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 25.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z 25.9N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 26.3N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z 26.7N 115.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 042033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
200 PM MST THU SEP 04 2025

...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 114.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE
IT WEAKENS ON FRIDAY.

RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LORENA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY OVER
WATER, TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, BASED ON DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FAR
SOUTHEAST BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS MEXICO, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SONORA AND
NORTHERN SINALOA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 042033
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 114.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 114.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.0N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.4N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.9N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.3N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.7N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 041742
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
1100 AM MST THU SEP 04 2025

...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 114.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA
EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE IT WEAKENS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
NEAR OR TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FAR
SOUTHEAST BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS MEXICO, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SONORA AND
NORTHERN SINALOA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 5 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, MAINLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 011
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 12E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 24.0N 114.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 114.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.7N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.8N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.2N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.6N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.9N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 114.2W.
04SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 041438
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
800 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025

Lorena has crossed the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm and is
now experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly wind shear. Recent
GMI and AMSR-2 microwave passes indicate that the center is now
located near or just outside of the convective area, and the
convection is beginning to get sheared off toward the northeast.
The latest subjective intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB range
from 55-77 kt, and the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates range
from 50-62 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this
advisory, making Lorena a tropical storm. As Lorena continues to
slowly gain latitude, it will progressively encounter colder water
temperatures and stronger southwesterly shear. The latest NHC
intensity forecast shows fairly quick weakening to a remnant low in
about 36 h, in agreement with the guidance. This is a slightly
faster rate of weakening compared to the previous official
forecast. The remnant low should then dissipate completely in
about 3 days, likely offshore, to the west of Baja California.

The GFS model and all of NHC's consensus guidance (including the
HCCA, Google DeepMind, and TCVE) have come onboard to the solution
that the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models have been advertising for the
past couple of days, which shows Lorena slowing down and dissipating
offshore, to the west of Baja California. The only models that
still bring Lorena's center into the Baja California peninsula are
the HAFS models and the HMON (as a weak low, below tropical storm
strength). As Lorena's convection gets stripped off toward the
northeast, its path will soon be governed by the low-level steering
currents, which should keep Lorena moving slowly offshore as it
weakens. The new NHC forecast represents a large change from the
previous forecast, and now keeps the center of Lorena offshore.

Although the chance of sustained tropical-storm-force winds on land
is starting to decrease, the rainfall and flash flooding threat for
the Baja California peninsula is still significant. Abundant
moisture will continue to stream northeastward away from the
cyclone. Because of that, there is still a significant risk of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Baja California
Sur, Sonora, southern Arizona and New Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact
Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. This will
increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across northwest Mexico.

2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns
across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona
into Saturday.

3. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but
offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula
through tonight, and then could move closer to the west-central
coast of the peninsula while it weakens on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions, mainly in gusts, are likely along portions of the coast
of Baja California Sur today through Friday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 24.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 24.7N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 25.3N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 25.8N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 26.2N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z 26.6N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 041437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
800 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025

...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 114.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa
Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula south
of Puerto Cortes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to Punta
Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in
northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 114.2 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north and a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move generally
parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through
tonight, and could move closer to the west-central coast of the
Baja California peninsula while it weakens on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorena is expected to quickly weaken for the next couple of
days, and it is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low near or
to the west of the Baja California peninsula by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja
California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15
inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far
southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This
will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals
up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and
northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with
isolated totals up to 5 inches, are expected across portions of
Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for
isolated to scattered flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected
somewhere within the warning area in Baja California Sur today
through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions
of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 041436
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 114.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 114.2W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.7N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.3N 114.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.8N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.2N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.6N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 114.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 041148
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
500 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025

...LORENA WEAKENING...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 113.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to
Bahia de los Angeles

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in
northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 113.9 West. Lorena is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through this morning. A slow northward or
north-northeastward motion is expected to begin this afternoon and
continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula today and approach the coast of Baja California
Sur tonight through Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorena is expected to quickly weaken for the next couple of
days, and it is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today.
Lorena is likely to degenerate into a remnant low near or over the
Baja California peninsula by early Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja
California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15
inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far
southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This
will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals
up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and
northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with
isolated totals up to 5 inches, are expected across portions of
Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for
isolated to scattered flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the
warning area in Baja California Sur today through Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east
coast of the Baja California peninsula late Friday into Friday
night.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the
coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena
makes landfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions
of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 23.7N 113.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 113.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.7N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.4N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.1N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 26.7N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 27.3N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.0N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 113.7W.
04SEP25. HURRICANE 12E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 040852
TCDEP2

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
200 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025

Lorena has become less organized since the last advisory due to the
impacts of increasing vertical shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures underneath the hurricane. Earlier microwave
imagery indicated that the eyewall had broken open, and current
conventional imagery shows that the low-level center is now
located near the southwestern edge of the convective mass. The
various satellite intensity estimates are now trending down, and
based on this the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly
generous 70 kt.

The initial motion is now a slower 320/7 kt. Lorena is expected to
turn northward with a further decrease in forward speed later today
as the cyclone moves farther into a break in the subtropical ridge.
After that, the guidance is now considerably slower in moving Lorena
to the north-northeast with the 00Z GFS now taking 60 h to reach
Baja California Sur. The NHC forecast track is again slowed down
significantly and blends the previous forecast with the new
consensus models and the 00Z GFS. It should be noted that in
contrast to the right turn of the GFS and the regional hurricane
models, the ECMWF and Canadian models continue to show a left turn
as Lorena approaches the coast that would keep the center offshore
until the cyclone dissipates.

Lorena should rapidly weaken in the increasingly unfavorable
environment, with the cyclone now forecast to weaken to a tropical
storm in 12 h or less. After that, the simulated satellite imagery
from the 00Z GFS and ECMWF shows the cyclone should stop producing
organized convection no later than 48 h, and this could happen
earlier. The new intensity forecast now shows the system decaying to
a remnant low by 48 h. Whether the system crosses Baja or stays
over the cold Pacific waters, it is expected to dissipate completely
by 96 h.

Although Lorena is forecast to rapidly weaken, abundant moisture
will continue to stream northeastward away from the cyclone.
Because of that, there is still a significant risk of heavy
rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, and southern Arizona and New Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact
Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. This will
increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across northwest Mexico.

2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns
across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona
into Saturday.

3. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but
offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula
today, and then move closer to the west-central coast of the
peninsula tonight and Friday. Regardless of the exact track,
tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the coast of
Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible late Friday along the
east coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect.

4. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 24.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 24.7N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 25.4N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 26.1N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 26.7N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 27.3N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 28.0N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 040851
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
200 AM MST THU SEP 04 2025

...LORENA STARTING TO WEAKEN...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 113.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST. LORENA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A SLOW NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY. LORENA IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB (29.12 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FAR
SOUTHEAST BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS MEXICO, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SONORA AND
NORTHERN SINALOA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 5 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE LORENA
MAKES LANDFALL.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 040850
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 113.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 113.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.4N 114.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.1N 113.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.7N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.3N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 113.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 040544
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
1100 PM MST WED SEP 03 2025

...LORENA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 113.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS
NORTHWARD TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. A SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
THURSDAY, APPROACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING QUICKLY AND BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. LORENA IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES (130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB (28.97 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SONORA BY THURSDAY, WITH
THIS RAINFALL POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
FAR SOUTHEAST BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

FARTHER NORTHEAST, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP
TO 5 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF
SINALOA NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE LORENA
MAKES LANDFALL.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 112.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 112.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.1N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.0N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 26.0N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.0N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.0N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.8N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 113.2W.
04SEP25. HURRICANE 12E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 617 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS
981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 040251
TCDEP2

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
800 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025

Objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS (ADT,
AiDT, and SATCON) have increased by 5 to 10 kt since the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission into Lorena earlier this afternoon.
Since the plane's data suggested an intensity of 70 kt at that
time, the current intensity is estimated to be about 75 kt. That
said, Lorena is probably at its peak intensity. There are already
signs in conventional and microwave satellite imagery that vertical
shear is beginning to strengthen, with a sharpening of the southern
side of the upper-level cloud pattern and some tilt of the
circulation with height. The shear is forecast to gradually
increase over the next couple of days, and Lorena will also be
moving over waters colder than 26 degrees Celsius in about 6 to 12
hours. Therefore, quick weakening is shown in the official
forecast.

Lorena continues to move toward the northwest, or 310 degrees, but
at a slightly slower 10 kt. As the cyclone moves farther into a
break in the subtropical ridge, it is expected to turn northward
and slow down further by Thursday evening, and then move only
slowly north-northeastward into the weekend. The 18z GFS run is
finally playing the same tune as much of the other guidance,
showing Lorena quickly decoupling as the shear removes its deep
convection and leaving the low-level center drifting toward the
west coast of Baja California Sur. Now that there is
near-unanimous agreement that Lorena is unlikely to move quickly
as a deep system toward northwestern Mexico, the NHC track forecast
has been slowed down significantly, blending the previous forecast
with the most recent HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. This new
forecast brings Lorena's center to the west coast of Baja
California Sur in about 48 hours as a weakening tropical cyclone,
with the system reaching the east coast of the peninsula as a
remnant low in about 60 hours. However, based on the latest GFS-
and ECMWF-based simulated satellite imagery, the transition to a
remnant low could occur earlier than that.

Even if Lorena weakens and becomes a remnant low earlier than
previously predicted, abundant moisture will continue to stream
northeastward away from the cyclone. Because of that, there is
still a significant risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across
portions of Baja California Sur, Sonora, and southern Arizona and
New Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact
Baja California Sur and shift into southwestern Sonora Thursday.
This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides across northwest Mexico.

2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns
across Arizona and southwest New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated
to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona
into Saturday.

3. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but
offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula
through Thursday, and then move closer to the west-central coast of
the peninsula Thursday night and Friday. Regardless of the exact
track, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the
coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible late Friday
along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

4. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 23.4N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 24.1N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 25.0N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 26.0N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 27.0N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 28.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 28.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 040250
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
800 PM MST WED SEP 03 2025

...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 113.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS NORTHWARD
TO SANTA FE.
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST. LORENA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A
SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY, APPROACH THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MOVE INLAND OVER
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING QUICKLY AND BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. LORENA IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB (28.97 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SONORA BY THURSDAY, WITH
THIS RAINFALL POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
FAR SOUTHEAST BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

FARTHER NORTHEAST, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP
TO 5 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF
SINALOA NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SOUTH
OF SANTA FE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND IN THE WATCH AREA ON THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE LORENA
MAKES LANDFALL.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 040249
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 113.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 113.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.1N 113.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.0N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.0N 113.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.8N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 113.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 111.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 111.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.4N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.5N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.6N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 26.4N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.4N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 30.4N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 111.6W.
03SEP25. HURRICANE 12E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 22.5N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 112.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.6N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.8N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.0N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.2N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.4N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.3N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 112.5W.
03SEP25. HURRICANE 12E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 032339
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
500 PM MST WED SEP 03 2025

...LORENA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 112.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS NORTHWARD
TO SANTA FE.
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST. LORENA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH AN
ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. A GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT, APPROACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FAST WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY, AND LORENA IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES (130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SONORA BY THURSDAY, WITH
THIS RAINFALL POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES, ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN
SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

FARTHER NORTHEAST, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP
TO 5 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE MEXICO STATES OF
SINALOA NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SOUTH
OF SANTA FE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND IN THE WATCH AREA ON THE EAST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE LORENA
MAKES LANDFALL.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 032045
TCDEP2

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
200 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025

The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated
Lorena made two passes through the center, measuring maximum 700-mb
flight-level winds of 79 kt in the NE quadrant and a center
dropsonde pressure of 985 mb with 7 kt of wind. The intensity is
held at 70 kt based on the reconnaissance data. The data also
confirmed that Lorena is rather small in size, with the aircraft
data indicating a similar extent of the wind field as to what was
previous estimated.

Lorena could still intensify for another 6-12 hours while it remains
over warm water and in low wind shear conditions. By 18 hours, the
hurricane is expected to cross the 26C sea-surface temperature
isotherm while southwesterly wind shear also begins to significantly
increase. These conditions are expected to lead to rapid weakening
beginning by Thursday afternoon. Only minor adjustments were made
to the official intensity forecast. The official forecast is at the
high end of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and then lies
closer to the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter.

The track guidance hasn't changed too much, but the TVCE, GFEX, and
other consensus models are a bit faster with the northeastward
motion beyond 36 h, and the NHC track was sped up a bit after that
time. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the NHC track
forecast. It should be noted that several models indicate a farther
left track, with dissipation over water without making landfall.
This scenario is possible if the hurricane rapidly weakens by
Thursday night and starts to decouple due to the aforementioned
increasing southwesterly shear. Regardless of which track scenario
pans out, there is very high confidence that heavy rainfall amounts
leading to significant flooding will occur in Baja California Sur,
especially since the southwesterly upper-level winds favor deep
convection to the right side of Lorena.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact
Baja California Sur, moving into southwestern Sonora by Thursday.
These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

2. Moisture from Lorena is likely to contribute to heavy rainfall
concerns across Arizona and southern New Mexico through Saturday.
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible
across Arizona into Saturday afternoon.

3. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but
offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula
through tonight, and then move closer to the west-central coast of
the peninsula on Thursday. Regardless of the exact track, tropical
storm conditions are likely along portions of the coast of Baja
California Sur where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are also possible beginning Friday along the east
coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect.

4. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 22.8N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 23.6N 113.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 24.8N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 26.0N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 27.2N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 28.4N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 29.3N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 032042
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
200 PM MST WED SEP 03 2025

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS LORENA STILL A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 112.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
SOUTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS NORTHWARD
TO SANTA FE.
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. LORENA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
A GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT, APPROACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FAST WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY, AND LORENA IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SONORA BY THURSDAY, WITH
THIS RAINFALL POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES, ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN
SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

FARTHER NORTHEAST, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP
TO 5 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE MEXICO STATES OF
SINALOA NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SOUTH
OF SANTA FE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND IN THE WATCH AREA ON THE EAST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE LORENA
MAKES LANDFALL.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 032040
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.2N 113.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.4N 112.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.3N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 112.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 031748
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
1100 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LORENA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 112.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward
to Santa Fe.
* West Coast of Baja California Sur from north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in
northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena.
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 112.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday.
A generally slow northward motion is expected late Thursday and
early Friday, with a gradual turn toward the northeast by late
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to
move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
through tonight and then approach the coast late Thursday through
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue through this
evening. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and
Lorena could weaken back to a tropical storm by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja
California Sur and move into southeastern Baja California and
southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially
persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with
maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern
Sonora through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with localized totals up to 4 inches, are expected from the Mexico
states of Sinaloa northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing
the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning tonight, and spreading northward within the warning area
in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa
Fe through tonight, and in the watch area north of Punta Abreojos
Thursday night and early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions
of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 130.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2025 0 13.9N 130.4W 976 60
0000UTC 04.09.2025 12 13.9N 131.9W 977 61
1200UTC 04.09.2025 24 14.0N 133.5W 979 58
0000UTC 05.09.2025 36 14.1N 135.4W 983 50
1200UTC 05.09.2025 48 14.2N 137.2W 983 52
0000UTC 06.09.2025 60 14.6N 139.1W 986 47
1200UTC 06.09.2025 72 15.0N 140.9W 988 50
0000UTC 07.09.2025 84 15.9N 142.5W 991 50
1200UTC 07.09.2025 96 16.9N 144.2W 993 50
0000UTC 08.09.2025 108 18.0N 146.3W 995 49
1200UTC 08.09.2025 120 19.2N 148.1W 999 44
0000UTC 09.09.2025 132 20.5N 150.5W 1002 41
1200UTC 09.09.2025 144 21.4N 153.0W 1007 38
0000UTC 10.09.2025 156 22.4N 155.2W 1007 38
1200UTC 10.09.2025 168 23.4N 157.7W 1008 33

HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 111.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2025 0 21.9N 111.4W 1000 35
0000UTC 04.09.2025 12 23.0N 113.6W 1000 35
1200UTC 04.09.2025 24 23.6N 114.6W 1002 26
0000UTC 05.09.2025 36 24.1N 114.9W 1002 22
1200UTC 05.09.2025 48 24.9N 114.6W 1005 23
0000UTC 06.09.2025 60 25.8N 114.2W 1007 21
1200UTC 06.09.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.8N 43.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2025 96 13.8N 43.4W 1012 25
0000UTC 08.09.2025 108 13.9N 46.1W 1011 28
1200UTC 08.09.2025 120 13.9N 48.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 09.09.2025 132 14.3N 51.3W 1009 31
1200UTC 09.09.2025 144 15.6N 53.6W 1010 32
0000UTC 10.09.2025 156 16.8N 56.0W 1010 32
1200UTC 10.09.2025 168 17.8N 58.6W 1010 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 32.9N 76.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2025 108 33.6N 76.1W 1010 29
1200UTC 08.09.2025 120 36.0N 72.4W 1006 39
0000UTC 09.09.2025 132 41.3N 66.1W 1008 34
1200UTC 09.09.2025 144 46.3N 56.8W 1011 36
0000UTC 10.09.2025 156 47.7N 48.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 10.09.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031601


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 031601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 130.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2025 13.9N 130.4W STRONG
00UTC 04.09.2025 13.9N 131.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2025 14.0N 133.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2025 14.1N 135.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2025 14.2N 137.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2025 14.6N 139.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2025 15.0N 140.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2025 15.9N 142.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2025 16.9N 144.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2025 18.0N 146.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2025 19.2N 148.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2025 20.5N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2025 21.4N 153.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2025 22.4N 155.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2025 23.4N 157.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 111.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2025 21.9N 111.4W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2025 23.0N 113.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2025 23.6N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2025 24.1N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2025 24.9N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2025 25.8N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.8N 43.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2025 13.8N 43.4W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2025 13.9N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2025 13.9N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2025 14.3N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2025 15.6N 53.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2025 16.8N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2025 17.8N 58.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 32.9N 76.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2025 33.6N 76.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2025 36.0N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2025 41.3N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2025 46.3N 56.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2025 47.7N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031601


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 031458
TCDEP2

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
800 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025

Satellite imagery and radar data from the Los Cabos radar in Mexico
indicate that Lorena continues to become better organized. Radar
imagery shows Lorena's eye becoming better defined, with a
completely closed and circular eyewall. Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB were both T-4.0/65 kt, with the UW-CIMSS numbers ranging
from 55-68 kt. However, the improvement over the last few hours
seen in radar images and GOES West satellite images suggest that
Lorena is likely stronger now. The initial intensity is estimated
at 70 kt, and it is possible this may be a bit conservative. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently enroute to
Lorena, which should provide a better estimate of the intensity
in a couple of hours from now.

Lorena has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours. Continued
rapid strengthening is likely for another 12 to 18 hours as Lorena
remains over warm water and in low wind shear conditions, and the
peak intensity forecast of 85 kt is maintained. By 24 hours, the
hurricane is expected to cross the 26C sea-surface temperature
isotherm while southwesterly wind shear also begins to significantly
increase. These conditions are expected to lead to rapid weakening
beginning by Thursday afternoon. The official forecast is above
most of the intensity guidance for the first 24 hours, but is closer
to the consensus aids thereafter.

The initial motion is faster now toward the northwest, or 320/14 kt.
Not much has changed with the track forecast reasoning. There are
still two camps of models. The majority of the guidance, including
the GFS, shows Lorena progressing faster and farther east, with
landfall in Baja California Sur followed by a turn toward the
northeast. But a significant minority of models, including the
ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET, slow down Lorena immediately, with a track
farther west, and then dissipate the system over water without
making landfall. The steering is such that a stronger cyclone would
be more likely to be in the faster and farther east camp of models.
However, if the hurricane rapidly weakens by Thursday night and
starts to decouple due to the aforementioned increasing
southwesterly shear, then the low-level circulation could
potentially get left behind. The new NHC forecast shows a faster
forward motion over the next 36 hours with a track slightly to the
right of the previous NHC track. Due to the rightward shift, the
chance of tropical storm force winds impacting portions of Baja
California Sur is increasing. Additionally, there is very high
confidence that heavy rainfall amounts leading to significant
flooding will occur in Baja California Sur, especially since the
southwesterly upper-level winds favor deep convection to the right
side of Lorena by late Thursday. At 48 h and beyond, the new NHC
forecast is similar to, but slightly to the left of, the previous
NHC forecast track.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will
continue to impact Baja California Sur, moving into southeastern
Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, and
contributing to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona from late
Wednesday through Friday. This will increase the risk of
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Mexico,
especially in areas of higher terrain. Isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona through
Friday.

2. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but
offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja Peninsula today, and
then move closer to the west-central coast of the peninsula on
Thursday. Regardless of the exact track, tropical storm conditions
are likely along portions of the coast of Baja California Sur where
a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical Storm conditions
are also possible through tonight along the southwestern coast of
Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should closely monitor
the latest forecast updates.

3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 22.3N 111.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 24.5N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 25.6N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 26.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 28.4N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 30.4N 110.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 031454
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
800 AM MST WED SEP 03 2025

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 111.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD
TO SANTA FE.
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. LORENA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A
GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY, WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THEN APPROACH THE COAST LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FAST WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY, AND
LORENA COULD WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB (29.18 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN SONORA BY THURSDAY, WITH THIS RAINFALL POTENTIALLY
PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR, FAR SOUTHEAST BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITHIN THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF LORENA, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN,
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MEXICO
STATES OF SINALOA NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
BEGINNING TONIGHT, AND SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SOUTH OF SANTA
FE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND IN THE WATCH AREA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 031454
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.4N 112.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.5N 113.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.4N 113.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.4N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 031155
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
500 AM MST WED SEP 03 2025

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN
LAZARO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD
TO SANTA FE.
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD
TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST. LORENA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A
GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN APPROACH
THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FAST WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY, AND LORENA COULD
WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES (95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN SONORA BY THURSDAY, WITH THIS RAINFALL POTENTIALLY
PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND FAR SOUTHEAST BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITHIN THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF LORENA, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN,
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS TO 4 INCHES, IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST
MEXICO STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND IN THE
WATCH AREA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 110.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 110.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.2N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.2N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.2N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.3N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.4N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.4N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 29.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 110.6W.
03SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 814
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 030854
TCDEP2

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
200 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025

Satellite imagery and data from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas
indicate that Lorena continues to become better organized, with the
radar imagery showing an eyewall wrapped 50-70 percent of the way
around the center. Satellite intensity estimates are now in the
55-65 kt range, with subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB being
65 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to
65 kt and Lorena is upgraded to a hurricane.

Steady to rapid intensification is likely during the next 24 h,
and while the forecast peak intensity of 85 kt is above the upper
edge of the intensity guidance it might be conservative. After
that time, Lorena is forecast to move over cooler sea surface
temperatures and into an area of southwesterly vertical shear.
This should cause significant weakening, and Lorena is expected to
weaken back to a tropical storm by 60 h. There is significant
uncertainty as to whether Lorena will make landfall in Baja
California Sur (see discussion below). If it does, the system
should continue weakening and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by
120 h. If it doesn't, the cyclone should continue to weaken over
cold water, with dissipation likely west of Baja California Sur
by 120 h.

The initial motion is now 320/12 kt. The first 24 h or so of
the track forecast remain fairly straightforward, with a slower
northwestward motion expected while the cyclone moves around the
western periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico. After
that time, Lorena will be moving into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge as it starts to encounter the less favorable environment.
The GFS model maintains a stronger and deeper Lorena and breaks open
the weakness in about 36 h, allowing the cyclone to recurve
north-northeastward into northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF and
Canadian models have a weaker Lorena and take about 12 h longer to
break open the ridge. This results in Lorena shearing apart with
the low-level center turning westward over the Pacific west of Baja
California Sur. Based on current intensity trends, the track
forecast leans toward the GFS solution and shows Lorena crossing
Baja California Sur in 60-72 h. However, there is still the
possibility that the cyclone does not reach the coast of Mexico. The
new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies along
the east side of the consensus models.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will
continue to impact Baja California Sur, moving into southeastern
Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, and contribute
to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona late Wednesday through
Friday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides across Mexico, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible
across Arizona through Friday.

2. Although rapid intensification is possible through tonight while
Lorena is offshore, the storm is expected to weaken while it
approaches the Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Thursday
night. Regardless, tropical storm conditions are likely along
portions of the coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued. Tropical Storm conditions are also
possible through Friday along other portions of the west coast of
Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 21.2N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 22.2N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 23.2N 113.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 24.2N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 25.3N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 26.4N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 27.4N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 030853
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
200 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025

...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 110.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the west coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Cabo San
Lazaro, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Baja California
Sur north of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Cabo San
Lazaro.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward
to Santa Fe.
* West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro northward
to Punta Abreojos.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in
northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena.
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 110.4 West. Lorena is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday.
A generally slow northward motion is expected to begin by late
Thursday and continue into late Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of
the Baja California peninsula today and Thursday and then approach
the coast Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast through
tonight. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and
Lorena could weaken back to a tropical storm by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja
California Sur and move into southeastern Baja California and
southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially
persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with
maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur and far southeast Baja California through Friday.
This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with localized totals to 4 inches, is expected from the northwest
Mexico states of Sinaloa and Sonora northward into Arizona through
Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Lorena, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area south of Santa Fe later today through Thursday, and
in the watch area north of Cabo San Lazaro Thursday and Thursday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the west
coast of Baja California Sur beginning this morning and continuing
through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 030852
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 110.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 110.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.2N 111.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.2N 113.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 113.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.3N 113.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.4N 113.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.4N 113.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 110.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 030530
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
1100 PM MST TUE SEP 02 2025

...LORENA STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 110.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD
TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
A GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN
COULD APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, AND LORENA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FAST WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
THURSDAY, AND LORENA COULD BE BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY
EARLY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA BY
THURSDAY, WITH THIS RAINFALL POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH
FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.

WITHIN THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF LORENA, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN,
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS TO 4 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST
MEXICO STATES OF COLIMA TO SINALOA NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POCKETS OF
FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 109.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 109.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.2N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.3N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.4N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.6N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.6N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.6N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.1N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 109.8W.
03SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LORENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 882
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS
997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE
11E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 030242
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025

A pair of AMSR2 and GMI microwave passes from several hours ago
revealed that Lorena's structure has improved significantly through
the day, with the 37-GHZ channel in particular showing a
well-defined cyan ring. The center is embedded beneath a Central
Dense Overcast, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
are a consensus T3.5/55 kt. This is also supported by some of the
UW-CIMSS objective numbers, and the initial intensity is therefore
set--possibly conservatively given the structure--at 55 kt.

Lorena has a low-level structure and small size that would make it
a prime suspect for rapid intensification, especially since it will
be in an environment of low shear and over warm ocean temperatures
for the next 36 hours. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification
(RI) index now shows a 3 in 4 chance of a 30-kt increase in
Lorena's winds over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast
therefore explicitly shows RI during the next day or so and most
closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest
guidance, during that time. After 36 hours, increasing shear and
colder water temperatures are expected lead to weakening, which
itself could be rapid due to Lorena's small size. Although there
is significant uncertainty on where Lorena will end up in 4-5 days
(see discussion below), the cyclone will likely not exist anymore
by day 5, and that is when dissipation is shown in the forecast.

Lorena continues to move northwestward, or 315/12 kt. The first 36
hours or so of the track forecast are fairly straightforward, with
a slower northwestward motion expected while the cyclone moves
around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered over
Mexico. Things are trickier after 36 hours. Lorena will be moving
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, but how much northward
progress it makes will depend on how long it remains strong. A
minority of models, particularly the GFS, keep a stronger Lorena
moving northeastward across the Baja California peninsula toward
Sonora. However, moderate to strong southwesterly shear is likely
to set in over Lorena in 48-72 hours, and a good chunk of the other
models, including many of the GEFS ensemble members, keep a
weakening Lorena offshore the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula with landfall never occurring. This new NHC forecast
blends the previous official forecast with the latest HCCA, Florida
State Superensemble, and GEFS ensemble mean, showing a slower
motion on day 4 and 5, and introducing the possibility that Lorena
doesn't reach mainland Mexico as a tropical cyclone.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will begin
to affect Baja California Sur on Wednesday, southwestern Sonora by
Thursday, and contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona
late Wednesday through Friday. This will increase the risk of
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Mexico,
especially in areas of higher terrain. Isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona through
Friday.

2. Although rapid intensification is possible through Wednesday
while Lorena is offshore, the storm is expected to weaken while it
approaches the Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday.
Regardless, tropical storm conditions are possible through Thursday
along portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur.
Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 20.2N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 21.2N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 22.3N 112.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 23.4N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 24.6N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 25.6N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 26.6N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 28.1N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 030242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
800 PM MST TUE SEP 02 2025

...LORENA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 109.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD
TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. A GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF LORENA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN
COULD APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
AND LORENA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT. FAST WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY, AND LORENA COULD BE BACK TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY EARLY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LORENA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA BY
THURSDAY, WITH THIS RAINFALL POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.

WITHIN THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF LORENA, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN,
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS TO 4 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST
MEXICO STATES OF COLIMA TO SINALOA NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POCKETS OF
FLASH FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LORENA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LORENA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 030241
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 109.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 109.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.2N 111.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.3N 112.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.6N 113.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 26.6N 113.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 28.1N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 109.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 022340
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
500 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025

...LORENA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 109.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward
to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches may be required later tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 109.2 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through
Wednesday night. A generally northward motion, with an additional
decrease in forward speed, is forecast Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena is likely to move parallel to
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and
Thursday and then could approach the coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane by
Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday and
continue into the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of Lorena
will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the
states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash flooding
possible in areas of mountainous terrain.

Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja
California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by Thursday,
with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches, are
possible across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern
Sonora through Friday. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and
locally higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track
and strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding
is a possibility.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Wednesday into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 022100
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025

...TROPICAL STORM LORENA STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUES FOR WESTERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 109.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Cabo
San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro on the western coast of Baja
California Sur.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro on the western coast
of Baja California Sur in Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches may be required later tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so before slowing and
turning northward by Thursday into Friday and northeastward toward
the Baja California peninsula and into Sonora by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on
Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday into
the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of Lorena
will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the
states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash flooding
possible in areas of mountainous terrain.

Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja
California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by Thursday,
with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible
across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern Sonora
through Friday. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and locally
higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track and
strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding is a
possibility.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Wednesday into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Gallina/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 022059
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025

A 1548z METOP-B ASCAT pass provided solid coverage of Lorena's
overall wind field with also resulted in a northward adjustment to
the initial position. Since the ASCAT pass, GOES-East visible
imagery continues to show improving overall organization within an
ideal environment for further strengthening. Symmetric banding
features support Dvorak DT numbers of 3.0 and 3.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. The recent inner core convection bursting with cloud
tops below -80C further suggest a strengthening trend, even without
recent microwave imagery to analyze its inner core structure. The
initial intensity is set at 45 kt, as a blend of the two operational
Dvorak estimates, along with other objective intensity estimates.

Since the prior advisory, Lorena is moving a bit faster at 13 kt to
the northwest as its being steered by the southwestern periphery of
the larger scale mid-level ridge. With the small northward
readjustment of position, the northwestward track will continue
through the next 48 hours, but this brings the center and wind field
closer to Baja California compared to the prior track forecast. As
such, the overall forecast track is a bit faster and shifted north
and east relative to prior forecast, following trends in the latest
track guidance. Due to the uncertainty that Tropical Storm force
winds may affect areas along the southwestern coasts of Baja
California Sur, the Government of Mexico has issued Tropical Storm
Watches from Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro. Any
further deviations north and/or eastward may result in further
expansion of watches and/or warning conditions over the next 24 to
48 hours. Deep layer vertical shear and overall decaying
sea-surface environment will slow the forward speed, with slow
recurvature expected after 48 hours west of Baja California Sur.
The shear results in an expanding track forecast suite, though will
continue to prior trends and overall means recurving the cyclone
toward the central Baja California with initial landfall forecast
after 72 hours. What remains of the circulation will cross the
Peninsula tracking northeast with a second landfall along coastal
Sonora towards the end of the forecast period.

Lorena is expected to remain fairly small inner core, though with
ample moisture and warm sea-surface temperatures for the next 24 to
36 h, forecasts are for steady intensification toward hurricane
status by Wednesday. There is some potential that Lorena may rapidly
intensify in the short term given its structure and favorable
environment. As Lorena crosses the 26 C isotherm in 2-3 days,
vertical wind shear will also increase and the overall intensity
should start to weaken by late in the week. As the cyclone turns
northeastward, slow weakening is expected with eventual dissipation
over Sonora by Saturday. The intensity forecast is on the higher
end of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will begin
to affect Baja California Sur on Wednesday, and southwestern Sonora
by Thursday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

2. Lorena is forecast to approach the Baja California peninsula
later this week. Due to the uncertainty that Tropical Storm force
winds may affect areas along the southwestern coasts of Baja
California Sur, the Government of Mexico has issued Tropical Storm
Watches from Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro. Residents
should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that
they have their preparedness plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 19.4N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 20.6N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.8N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 22.9N 113.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 24.1N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 25.1N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 26.2N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 28.4N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 29.9N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Gallina/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 022059
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.6N 110.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.8N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.9N 113.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.1N 113.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.1N 113.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.2N 113.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 28.4N 111.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 29.9N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 109.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER GALLINA/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 128.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2025 0 13.6N 128.0W 995 41
0000UTC 03.09.2025 12 13.8N 129.3W 995 41
1200UTC 03.09.2025 24 13.8N 130.7W 994 43
0000UTC 04.09.2025 36 14.0N 132.4W 994 42
1200UTC 04.09.2025 48 14.3N 134.4W 995 41
0000UTC 05.09.2025 60 14.5N 136.6W 995 41
1200UTC 05.09.2025 72 14.5N 138.8W 995 40
0000UTC 06.09.2025 84 15.0N 140.6W 995 43
1200UTC 06.09.2025 96 15.8N 142.5W 995 44
0000UTC 07.09.2025 108 16.6N 144.4W 995 51
1200UTC 07.09.2025 120 17.1N 146.5W 994 50
0000UTC 08.09.2025 132 17.5N 148.8W 995 47
1200UTC 08.09.2025 144 17.8N 151.2W 998 45
0000UTC 09.09.2025 156 18.1N 153.7W 1001 39
1200UTC 09.09.2025 168 18.3N 155.7W 1004 37

TROPICAL STORM 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 109.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2025 0 15.4N 109.1W 1009 24
0000UTC 03.09.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021601


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 021601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.09.2025

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 128.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2025 13.6N 128.0W MODERATE
00UTC 03.09.2025 13.8N 129.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2025 13.8N 130.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2025 14.0N 132.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2025 14.3N 134.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2025 14.5N 136.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2025 14.5N 138.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2025 15.0N 140.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2025 15.8N 142.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2025 16.6N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2025 17.1N 146.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2025 17.5N 148.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2025 17.8N 151.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2025 18.1N 153.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2025 18.3N 155.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 109.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2025 15.4N 109.1W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021601


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 021500
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025

GOES-East imagery depicts a steadily improving convective structure,
where earlier the presentation was more elongated, but more recently
is taking on a banded structure with bursting overshooting tops near
the center, suggesting better overall organization of the small
core. Recent Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB are at 2.5
and 3.5, respectively, indicative of the intensification. As such,
initial intensity is set at 40 kt, slightly favoring the TAFB
estimate though satellite trends continue to improve. Thus, Tropical
Depression Twelve-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lorena.

The cyclone is now moving northwestward at 12 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge should steer
the storm generally northwestward for the next couple of days.
However, the strength and therefore, depth of the cyclone will have
a sizable impact on its expected track and potential recurvature
towards Baja California. Model solutions that are stronger bring
the cyclone northward and eastward relative to the overall guidance
suite closer to Baja California earlier. Thus interests along Baja
California Sur should monitor updates to the track closely. Given
overall trends, a slightly faster, northward adjustment to the track
was made. The latest track forecast shows landfall in central Baja
at 96 hours, but there remains significant spread in the track
guidance, with the latest GFS forecast faster and to the east, while
the most recent ECMWF forecast is a significant leftward outlier,
not ever reaching the Mexican coastline. Given the spread, stay
tuned to updates in subsequent forecast packages.

Very warm waters and ample deep layer moisture will allow for a
steady intensification over the next few days, with increasing
potential for Lorena to reach hurricane status in the next next 24
to 48 hours. Lorena is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm in
2-3 days. That factor, in combination with increasing southwesterly
vertical shear should result in weakening after that time until
landfall across the Baja California Peninsula. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is higher than the previous cycle, but remains a
little under the HCCA consensus aid.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of Baja California later today or
Wednesday.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will begin
to affect Baja California Sur on Wednesday, and southwestern Sonora
by Thursday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

2. Lorena is forecast to approach the Baja California peninsula
later this week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of wind impacts, residents should closely
monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their
preparedness plan in place. Watches could be required for a portion
of the Baja California peninsula later today or on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 107.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.4N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 20.7N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 21.9N 112.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 23.0N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 23.9N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 24.9N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 26.8N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z 28.9N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Gallina


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 021457
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LORENA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 107.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of Baja California Sur later today or on
Wednesday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 107.9 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days before slowing and
turning north then northeastward toward the latter portion of this
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours and Lorena could reach hurricane strength by
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of
Tropical Storm Lorena will continue to impact portions of
northwestern Mexico from the states of Colima to Sinaloa today,
with isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous
terrain.

Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja
California Sur by Wednesday and potentially persist through
Friday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of Baja California
Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday. Uncertainty remains
with these totals, and locally higher or lower amounts are possible
depending on the track and strength of the system. Potentially
significant flash flooding is a possibility.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Gallina


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 021456
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.4N 109.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.7N 111.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.9N 112.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.9N 114.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.9N 114.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.8N 113.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 28.9N 111.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER GALLINA=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 020856
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025

The tropical depression has been relatively steady overnight.
Periodic bursts of deep convection continue to form over the
low-level center, with cold cloud tops of less than -80 degrees C. A
scatterometer pass from 0335 UTC showed a small circulation with
reliable winds of 30 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at
30 kt, which is also supported by the latest TAFB T2.0
classification.

The cyclone is still moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge should soon
begin to steer the depression generally northwestward for the next
couple of days. By the end of the week, the tropical cyclone is
expected to slow down as it reaches a weakness in the ridge and
gradually turn northward. Over the weekend, the depression is
forecast to turn north-northeastward to northeastward toward the
Baja California peninsula. The latest official forecast track
is west of the previous forecast as a result of an adjustment to
the initial position reflecting a delay in the northwestward
turn, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids.

Warm waters and a quiescent, moist atmosphere should allow the
depression to steadily intensify during the next couple of days.
The system is still expected to peak just under hurricane strength.
By day 3, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm
and experience increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing
mid-level humidities which should cause gradual weakening. Little
changes have been made to the latest intensity forecast.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of Baja California later today or
Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.6N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 020849
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 106.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of Baja California Sur later today or on
Wednesday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E
was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest
with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system will likely become a
tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of the
depression will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico
from the states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash
flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain.

Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja
California Sur by Wednesday and potentially persist through
Saturday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across
portions of the area. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and
locally higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track
and strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding
is a possibility.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 020848
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 020245
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
900 PM CST Mon Sep 01 2025

Deep convection associated with a low pressure system to the south
of southwestern Mexico has persisted and continues to become better
organized over the past several hours. There is a fairly
well-defined upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern over the area,
with cloud tops to -70 deg C or colder near the estimated center.
Based on the increased organization of the cloud pattern, the system
is being designated as a tropical depression at this time. Dvorak
satellite classifications are 1.5/1.5 and 2.0/2.0 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively, which supports a current intensity estimate of about
30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/12 kt. A mid-level
ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone should cause the
system to move on a west-northwestward to northwestward track for
the next couple of days. Steering currents are expected to
gradually weaken through the forecast period, resulting in a
decrease in the forward speed of the cyclone. In 3 to 5 days, the
slow-moving system is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward into a weakness in the ridge. The official track
forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.

The tropical cyclone is currently situated in a weak shear
environment over SSTs of around 30 deg C. Strengthening is likely,
and the system will probably be nearing hurricane intensity in a
couple of days. Later in the forecast period, cooler ocean waters
and a more stable air mass should cause gradual weakening. The
official forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity model consensus.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of Baja California on Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 17.2N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.7N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 21.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 23.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 24.0N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 26.3N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 28.2N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 020242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
900 PM CST Mon Sep 01 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 105.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of Baja California Sur on Tuesday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E
was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 105.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest
with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system will likely become a
tropical storm on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of the
depression will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico
from the states of Colima to Sinaloa tonight into Tuesday, with
isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain.

Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting portions of
Baja California Sur by Wednesday and persist through Friday.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible here, although there
is uncertainty with these totals, and higher amounts are possible.
Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility depending on
the track and strength of the system.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 020242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.3N 107.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 113.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.3N 113.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 28.2N 111.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=