Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for GABRIELLE-25
in Portugal, Spain

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 261442
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

Gabrielle is a storm-force extratropical cyclone with frontal
boundaries that extend east-northeastward and southwestward from the
cyclone. The center continues moving away from the Azores, and
winds have dropped below gale-force across the islands. Recent
ASCAT passes missed the center, but winds up to 43 kt were measured
by the instrument well away from the center in the southeast
quadrant. Global models show 10-meter winds up to 55 kt in their
fields at the current time, so the initial intensity will be held
at 55 kt.

Some intensification is possible this evening, and the 06Z GFS model
indicates a sting jet could briefly cause winds up to 70-75 kt in
the western semicircle in about 6 h from now. The NHC forecast
brings Gabrielle to 60 kt in 12 h, but doesn't necessarily account
for brief stronger winds that could occur between the current time
and the 12 h point. Global models are in good agreement on steady
weakening after hour 12, and the NHC intensity forecast is based on
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. It's possible that gale force winds
near 35 kt, with higher gusts, could affect portions of the west
coast of Portugal around early Sunday.

The current motion is quickly east-northeastward, or 065/27 kt. A
turn toward the east along with a decrease in forward speed is
expected in 12-24 h. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn
southeastward as it approaches the coast of Portugal. This should
be followed by an even slower southeastward to southward motion
while Gabrielle decays and eventually dissipates near southern
Portugal and northern Morocco. The forecast track has been shifted
slightly to the northeast, or left, of the previous NHC track,
closer to the latest simple and corrected consensus models.

This is the final advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Gabrielle. Future information on marine impacts can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt. Future
information on potential land-based impacts in Portugal can be found
in products issued by the Portugal Meteorological Institute at
https://www.ipma.pt/en/index.html


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Winds across the Azores will continue to subside this afternoon.

2. Any flooding caused by Gabrielle across the high terrain of the
central Azores should subside this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 40.0N 22.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 27/0000Z 40.8N 18.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/1200Z 41.0N 13.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 28/0000Z 40.1N 10.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1200Z 38.5N 8.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 29/0000Z 36.9N 7.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/1200Z 35.6N 7.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 261439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...CENTER OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 22.8W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ENE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 22.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
31 mph (50 km/h). A turn toward the east with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through Saturday, followed by a turn toward the
southeast and south through early next week. On the forecast track,
the center of post-tropical Gabrielle will continue moving away from
the Azores today, then approach the coast of Portugal by early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through tonight, with
weakening expected over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Gusty winds across the central and southeastern Azores will
continue to diminish this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Gabrielle is expected to produce less than an inch, or 25
mm, of additional rainfall across the Azores today. Any flooding
caused by Gabrielle across the terrain of the central Azores should
subside today.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will affect the Azores through
the weekend and will reach the coasts of Portugal, northwestern
Spain, and northern Morocco on Saturday. These swells are expected
to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on marine impacts can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt. Future
information on potential land-based impacts in Portugal can be found
in products issued by the Portugal Meteorological Institute at
https://www.ipma.pt/en/index.html

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 261437
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
1500 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 22.8W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 150SE 480SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 22.8W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 24.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 40.8N 18.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 41.0N 13.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 40.1N 10.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 8.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 7.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.6N 7.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 22.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 261139
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1200 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...CENTER OF GABRIELLE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 24.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ENE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for all of the islands of the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle was located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 24.2 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
29 mph (46 km/h). An east-northeastward to eastward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday,
followed by a turn toward the southeast and south through early next
week. On the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Gabrielle
will continue moving away from the Azores today, then approach the
coast of Portugal by early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but gradual
weakening is forecast over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Gusty winds across the central and southeastern Azores will
diminish today.

RAINFALL: Gabrielle is expected to produce less than an inch, or 25
mm, of additional rainfall across the Azores today. Any flooding
caused by Gabrielle across the terrain of the central Azores should
subside today.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will affect the Azores through
the weekend and will reach the coasts of Portugal, northwestern
Spain, and northern Morocco on Saturday. These swells are expected
to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 260840
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

Gabrielle continues to produce a patch of convection to the
northeast of the center, which is most likely along a frontal
boundary in this area. The center is currently moving through the
central Azores where tropical-storm conditions and wind gusts to
hurricane-force have been reported. In addition, sustained
hurricane-force winds have been reported in the elevated
mountainous areas of Terceira and Sao Miguel Islands. The initial
intensity is held at 55 kt based mainly on continuity from the
previous advisory.

While the center has moved a little to the left of the previous
track during the past few hours, the overall motion remains
east-northeastward or 070/25 kt. Gabrielle should continue
east-northeastward for the next day or so with a decrease in
forward speed, and this motion should bring the center away from
the Azores today. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn
eastward and southeastward as it approaches the coast of Portugal.
This should be followed by an even slower southeastward to
southward motion while Gabrielle decays and eventually dissipates
near southern Portugal and northern Morocco. The new forecast track
is shifted a bit to the north of the previous track based mainly on
the more northerly initial position.

Gabrielle is almost finished its extratropical transition, with
satellite imagery indicating a cold front forming to the southeast
and south of the center in addition to the frontal boundary to the
north. The global models suggest little change in strength for the
next 24 h, followed by a gradual weakening. The new intensity
forecast is based mainly on a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models,
and it now calls for the system to dissipate between 72-96 h.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the
Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a
post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.
This should occur sometime later today.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is expected to produce tropical storm conditions, with
gusts to hurricane force, across the central and southeastern Azores
this morning, with hurricane-force winds possible at higher
elevations.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Any flooding caused by Gabrielle across the terrain of the
central Azores should subside today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 39.1N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1800Z 40.1N 21.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0600Z 40.7N 16.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1800Z 40.5N 12.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0600Z 39.0N 9.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1800Z 37.4N 8.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0600Z 36.0N 7.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 260839
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 26.1W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 130SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 180SE 480SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 26.1W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 27.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 40.1N 21.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 40.7N 16.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 40.5N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 39.0N 9.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.4N 8.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.0N 7.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 26.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 260839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...CENTER OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE AZORES...
...STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 26.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ENE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through this
morning. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 26.1 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
29 mph (46 km/h). An east-northeastward to eastward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday,
followed by a turn toward the southeast and south through early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of post-tropical
Gabrielle will start moving away from the Azores during the next
few hours, then approach the coast of Portugal by early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely through tonight, but
gradual weakening should begin on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. Pico Santos de Cima, in the mountains on Sao
Miguel Island, recently reported sustained winds of 78 mph
(125 km/h). Earlier, the observatory station in Horta on Faial
Island reported a wind gust of 96 mph (154 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, with gusts to hurricane force, are
occurring in the central and southeastern Azores. Hurricane-force
winds are occurring in areas of elevated terrain. Strong, gusty
winds will continue across these islands through the morning.

Gusty winds are possible along portions of the coast of Portugal
late Saturday through Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Gabrielle is expected to produce less than an inch, or 25
mm, of additional rainfall across the Azores today. Any flooding
caused by Gabrielle across the terrain of the central Azores should
subside today.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will affect the Azores through
the weekend and will reach the coasts of Portugal, northwestern
Spain, and northern Morocco on Saturday. These swells are expected
to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 260547
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
600 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...CENTER OF GABRIELLE MOVING THROUGH THE AZORES...
...STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES AND SHOULD
SOON INCREASE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 27.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through this
morning. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 27.7 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
30 mph (48 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday,
followed by a turn toward the southeast and south through early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of post-tropical
Gabrielle will move across the Azores during the next few hours,
then approach the coast of Portugal by early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight re-strengthening is possible during the next
several hours, but gradual weakening should begin on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. Horta Airport on Faial Island recently reported
sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph
(122 km/h). A few hours ago, Serra St. Barbera, located in the
mountains on Terceira Island, reported a wind gust of 115 mph
(185 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, with gusts to hurricane force, are
occurring in the central Azores and will spread to the southeastern
Azores over the next couple of hours. Strong, gusty winds will
continue across these islands through the morning.

Gusty winds are possible along portions of the coast of Portugal
late Saturday through Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Through this morning, Gabrielle could produce 3 to 5
inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of storm total rainfall across the central
Azores. This rainfall could cause flash flooding across the
terrain. Elsewhere, Gabrielle is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches,
or 25 to 75 mm, of rain across the eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will affect the Azores through
the weekend and will reach the coasts of Portugal, northwestern
Spain, and northern Morocco on Saturday. These swells are expected
to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 260244
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

A patch of deep convection has redeveloped well to the northeast of
Gabrielle's center, most likely along an occluded frontal boundary
that is forming in the storm's immediate vicinity. A 2330 UTC ASCAT
pass showed winds as high as 45 kt in the southeastern quadrant--
slightly lower than the ASCAT pass from 12 hours ago--and therefore
the current intensity is estimated to be 55 kt. Strong winds began
spreading across the central Azores a few hours ago, with
hurricane-force gusts being reported at some elevated sites on those
islands. Strong winds are expected to spread to the southeastern
Azores within the next couple of hours.

The current motion is east-northeastward, or 070 degrees at 25
kt. Gabrielle's center is forecast to move across the Azores over
the next several hours and then continue on a more-or-less eastward
track but at a slower speed for the next couple of days while
approaching the coast of Portugal. An even slower southeastward to
southward motion is expected in 3 to 4 days while the low decays
near southern Portugal and northern Morocco.

Gabrielle could re-intensify slightly today until extratropical
transition is completed, with the strongest winds shifting from the
southeastern quadrant to the northwestern quadrant. A gradual
decrease in winds is expected after 24 hours, and the NHC intensity
forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECWMF solutions.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the
Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a
post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is expected to produce tropical storm conditions,
with gusts to hurricane force, across the central and southeastern
Azores this morning, with the strongest winds occurring at higher
elevations.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding
across the terrain of the central Azores through this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 37.8N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1200Z 39.0N 24.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0000Z 40.0N 19.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1200Z 40.2N 14.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0000Z 39.3N 11.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1200Z 37.5N 8.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0000Z 36.1N 7.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0000Z 34.2N 7.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 260244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES AS GABRIELLE'S
CENTER APPROACHES...
...WINDS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AZORES VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 29.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through this
morning. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 29.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
29 mph (46 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday,
followed by a turn toward the southeast and south through early
next week. On the forecast track, the center of post-tropical
Gabrielle will move across the Azores this morning, then approach
the coast of Portugal by early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight re-strengthening is possible later today, but
gradual weakening should begin on Saturday.

Gale-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
center. A sustained wind of 71 mph (114 km/h) with a gust to 86
mph (138 km/h) was recently reported by a station on Terceira Island
in the central Azores at an elevation of 884 feet (269 m). Closer
to sea level, a wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was measured at Ponta
Furada on Faial Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, with gusts to hurricane force, are
occurring in the central Azores and will spread to the southeastern
Azores over the next couple of hours. Strong, gusty winds will
continue across these islands through the morning.

Gusty winds are possible along portions of the coast of Portugal
late Saturday through Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Through this morning, Gabrielle could produce 3 to 5
inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of storm total rainfall across the central
Azores. This rainfall could cause flash flooding across the
terrain. Elsewhere, Gabrielle is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches,
or 25 to 75 mm, of rain across the eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will affect the Azores through
the weekend and will reach the coasts of Portugal, northwestern
Spain, and northern Morocco on Saturday. These swells are expected
to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 260243
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0300 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 29.3W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 130SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 29.3W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 30.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 39.0N 24.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 40.0N 19.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 40.2N 14.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 39.3N 11.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 37.5N 8.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.1N 7.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 34.2N 7.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 29.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 252343
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1200 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM GMT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 30.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through this
morning. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM GMT (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle was located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 30.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
30 mph (48 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday,
followed by a turn toward the southeast through early next week. On
the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Gabrielle will move
across the Azores this morning, then approach the coast of Portugal
by early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength
when it passes through the Azores. Then, weakening is expected over
the weekend and into early next week.

Gale-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the
center. Horta on Faial Island in the central Azores recently
reported a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
Azores this morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to
spread across the islands during the next couple of hours.
Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of
the Azores even after the center passes.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Through this morning, Gabrielle could produce up to 3
to 5 inches, 75 to 125 mm, of storm total rainfall across the
central Azores. This rainfall could produce flash flooding within
the mountains. Elsewhere, Gabrielle is expected to yield 1 to 3
inches, 25 to 75 mm, of rain across the western and eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will affect the Azores through
the weekend. Swells from Gabrielle will reach the coast of Portugal,
northwestern Spain, and northern Morocco on Saturday. These swells
are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products issued by your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 252034
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

Gabrielle has quickly lost tropical characteristics today in a
highly sheared environment. Dry air infiltrating the circulation has
left the low-level center partially exposed, and the overall cloud
pattern has become more linear ahead of an approaching baroclinic
system. Since Gabrielle no longer has organized deep convection and
is beginning to interact with fronts, it is best designated as a
post-tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt based
on earlier ASCAT data and the latest GFS and ECMWF wind fields.
Weather radar data from Flores Island in the Azores indicate showers
are spreading across the northwestern islands as conditions begin
to deteriorate.

The cyclone continues moving quickly eastward (080/26 kt) within
strong westerly mid-latitude flow. The center of Gabrielle will pass
quickly near or over the Azores later tonight and early Friday.
Gabrielle is forecast to gradually decelerate over the next few
days while eventually turning southeastward as a ridge builds to
the west over the eastern Atlantic. As a result, the post-tropical
cyclone should pass near or over the coast of Portugal later this
weekend. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast
with this update.

The global models continue to show some increase in Gabrielle's peak
winds tonight as the cyclone interacts with an approaching
baroclinic system and completes extratropical transition. The NHC
intensity forecast favors this solution and shows Gabrielle as a
65-kt post-tropical cyclone moving through the Azores early Friday.
Thereafter, steady weakening is forecast as the low becomes
vertically stacked and fills over the far eastern Atlantic. The
global models are in good agreement on this solution.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the
Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a
post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is expected to bring hurricane conditions to the
islands of the Azores later tonight and early Friday. Significant
hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores
even after the center passes.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding
across the terrain of the central Azores tonight through Friday
morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 37.1N 31.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/0600Z 38.3N 27.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1800Z 39.7N 21.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0600Z 40.3N 16.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1800Z 40.0N 12.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0600Z 38.7N 10.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1800Z 36.9N 8.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1800Z 35.5N 7.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 252033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
GABRIELLE PASSES OVER THE AZORES LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
...SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 31.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case later tonight and
early Friday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 31.7 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 31 mph (50
km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday, followed by
a turn toward the southeast through early next week. On the forecast
track, the center of post-tropical Gabrielle will move across the
Azores later tonight and early Friday, then approach the coast of
Portugal by early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength
when it passes through the Azores. Then, weakening is expected over
the weekend and into early next week.

Gale-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
Azores later tonight and early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions expected to spread across the islands during the next
several hours. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely
across portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Through Friday morning, Gabrielle could produce up to 3
to 5 inches, 75 to 125 mm, of storm total rainfall across the
central Azores. This rainfall could produce flash flooding within
the mountains. Elsewhere, Gabrielle is expected to yield 1 to 3
inches, 25 to 75 mm, of rain across the western and eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will spread across the Azores
soon and continue to affect the islands through the weekend. Swells
from Gabrielle will reach the coast of Portugal on Saturday. These
swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products issued by your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 252032
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
2100 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 31.7W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 160SE 150SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 390SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 31.7W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 33.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.3N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 140SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 39.7N 21.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 40.3N 16.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 40.0N 12.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 160SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 38.7N 10.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.9N 8.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 35.5N 7.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 31.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 251738
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
600 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

...GABRIELLE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 33.8W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case tonight or early
Friday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 33.8 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east near 31 mph (50 km/h). A fast eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a
slower eastward to east-southeastward motion this weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will move across the Azores
tonight into early Friday, then approach the coast of Portugal as
an extratropical cyclone by early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is forecast to be at hurricane strength when it
passes through the Azores. After that, it is expected to weaken as
an extratropical low through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
Azores tonight into early Friday, with tropical storm conditions
likely by this evening. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are
likely across portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Through Friday morning, Gabrielle could produce up to 3 to
5 inches, 75 to 125 mm, of storm total rainfall across the central
Azores. This rainfall could produce flash flooding within the
mountains. Elsewhere, Gabrielle is expected to yield 1 to 3 inches,
or 25 to 75 mm, of rain across the western and eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will spread across the Azores
through tonight and continue to affect the islands through the
weekend. Swells from Gabrielle will reach the coast of Portugal on
Saturday. These swells are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products issued by
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 251436
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

The satellite presentation of Gabrielle is disheveled this morning.
Deep convection has mostly collapsed, and the coldest cloud tops are
displaced well to the east of the low-level center by strong
westerly shear. Recent ASCAT data show the wind field is asymmetric,
with the strongest winds confined to the southern and eastern
portions of the circulation. The strongest winds from the instrument
were around 50 kt, but known resolution limitations suggest this is
likely not reflective of Gabrielle's peak intensity. Based on this
data and a blend of the latest satellite estimates, the initial
intensity is lowered to 65 kt.

Gabrielle is moving quickly eastward (080/28 kt) toward the Azores
within mid-latitude westerly flow. The center of Gabrielle is
expected to pass near or over the Azores late today into early
Friday. Then, the cyclone is forecast to decelerate and turn toward
the southeast as it moves around the northeastern portion of an
eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. This motion takes the center
near or over the coast of Portugal by day 3. Since microwave and
scatterometer data indicated the center was slightly south of
previous estimates, the NHC track forecast has been nudged southward
during the first 24 h. Then, the forecast is mostly unchanged from
the previous one, generally following the multi-model consensus.

The cooler waters and strong shear environment suggest that
Gabrielle is unlikely to regain tropical characteristics, and it is
possible that Gabrielle transitions to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone later today or tonight. The recent scatterometer winds show
a front nearing the northern portion of Gabrielle's circulation, in
association with an upper-level trough over the northern Atlantic.
The global models indicate baroclinic interaction with this feature
should cause Gabrielle to have hurricane-force winds when it passes
over the Azores tonight or early Friday. Although the NHC intensity
prediction has been adjusted downward this cycle, the 12-h forecast
still shows Gabrielle at hurricane strength near the Azores.
Afterward, the updated forecast shows more rapid weakening of
the extratropical cyclone over the far eastern Atlantic.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the Azores.
The NHC will continue to issue advisories on Gabrielle as long as
these land-based warnings are in place, regardless of the system's
status as a tropical or post-tropical cyclone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is expected to bring hurricane conditions to the
islands of the Azores tonight into early Friday. Significant
hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores
even after the center passes. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding
across the terrain of the central Azores tonight through Friday
morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 36.7N 35.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 37.7N 30.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 39.3N 24.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 40.4N 19.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z 40.5N 14.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0000Z 39.6N 11.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1200Z 37.9N 8.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1200Z 35.5N 7.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 251435
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 35.1W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case tonight or early
Friday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 35.1 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east near 32 mph (52 km/h). A fast eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a
slower eastward to east-southeastward motion this weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will approach the Azores
today and move across the island chain tonight into early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is forecast to be at hurricane strength when it
passes through the Azores. After that, it is expected to weaken as
an extratropical low through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
Azores tonight into early Friday, with tropical storm conditions
likely by this evening. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are
likely across portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Through Friday morning, Gabrielle could produce up to 3 to
5 inches, 75 to 125 mm, of storm total rainfall across the central
Azores. This rainfall could produce flash flooding within the
mountains. Elsewhere, Gabrielle is expected to yield 1 to 3 inches,
or 25 to 75 mm, of rain across the western and eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the northeastern coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada today.
Swells from Gabrielle will spread across the Azores today and
tonight. These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products issued by your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 251434
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
1500 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 35.1W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 28 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 160SE 150SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 360SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 35.1W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 36.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 37.7N 30.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 160SE 150SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 39.3N 24.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 160SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 40.4N 19.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 40.5N 14.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 170SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 39.6N 11.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 37.9N 8.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.5N 7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 35.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 251141
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1200 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

...GABRIELLE RACING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 36.5W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in case tonight or early Friday.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 36.5 West. Gabrielle is
moving quickly toward the east near 32 mph (52 km/h). A fast
eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next
day or two, followed by a slower eastward to east-southeastward
motion this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle
will approach the Azores today and move across the island chain
tonight into early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is forecast to be at hurricane strength when it
passes through the Azores. After that, it is expected to weaken as
an extratropical low through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Azores tonight into
early Friday, with tropical storm conditions likely by this
evening. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across
portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: From tonight through Friday morning, Gabrielle could
produce up to 3 to 5 inches, 75 to 125 mm, of storm total rainfall
across the central Azores. This rainfall could produce flash
flooding within the mountains. Elsewhere, Gabrielle is expected
to yield 1 to 3 inches, or 25 to 75 mm, of rain across the western
and eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the northeastern coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada today.
Swells from Gabrielle will begin reaching the Azores later today.
These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 250840
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

The center of Gabrielle has moved over colder sea surface
temperatures during the past few hours, and the associated
convection is starting to weaken. However, the low-level center is
still well embedded inside the convective cloud mass. Various
satellite intensity estimates are now in the 60-77 kt range, and
based on these and earlier scatterometer data the initial intensity
is held at a possible generous 75 kt.

The initial motion remains quite fast at 080/28 kt. Mid-latitude
westerly flow associated with a baroclinic trough to the west of
Gabrielle is expected to steer the storm eastward to
east-northeastward for the next day or two as it passes near or over
the Azores late today into early Friday. After 48 h, the cyclone is
expected to slow its forward speed and turn southeastward as it
rounds the northeastern side of the subtropical ridge over the
eastern Atlantic, with this motion likely to bring the system near
or over southern Portugal before the cyclone dissipates. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 48 h, and the new forecast
track is little changed from the previous forecast.

Gabrielle could weaken a little during the next 6-12 hours due to a
combination of shear and cold sea surface temperatures. However, the
ECMWF, GFS, and regional hurricane models are in good agreement that
interaction with the baroclinic trough will start Gabrielle's
extratropical transition process before the cyclone reaches the
Azores, causing some re-intensification with a band of
hurricane-force winds wrapping around the west side of the system
around the time it moves over the Azores. The forecast intensity of
80 kt in 24 h is based on a blend of the above-mentioned models.
After passing the Azores, Gabrielle should finish this transition
and become a decaying extratropical low over the northeastern
Atlantic. Based on the global model, the associated winds are
currently forecast to decrease below gale-force before the low moves
near Portugal, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate after 96 h.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late today as a
hurricane. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of the islands
of the Azores, and hurricane conditions are likely tonight into
Friday. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across
portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding across
the terrain of the central Azores tonight through Friday morning.

4. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next couple of days, and the east coast of the United
States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada for the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 36.5N 38.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 37.1N 33.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 38.7N 27.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 40.1N 21.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0600Z 40.7N 17.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/1800Z 40.2N 13.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0600Z 38.8N 10.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0600Z 36.0N 7.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

...GABRIELLE MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES...
...ON TRACK TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 38.8W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 38.8 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east near 32 mph (52 km/h). A fast eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days, followed by a slower eastward to east-southeastward motion
this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will
approach the Azores today and move across the island chain tonight
into early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is forecast to be at hurricane strength when it
passes through the Azores. After that, it is expected to weaken as
it becomes an extratropical low.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Azores tonight into
early Friday, with tropical storm conditions likely by this
evening. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across
portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: From tonight through Friday morning, Gabrielle could
produce up to 3 to 5 inches, 75 to 125 mm, of storm total rainfall
across the central Azores. This rainfall could produce flash
flooding within their mountains. Elsewhere, Gabrielle is expected
to yield 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm of rain across the western and
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
over the next couple of days, and the U.S. East Coast from North
Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada over the next day or so.
Swells from Gabrielle will begin reaching the Azores later today.
These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 250838
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 38.8W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 28 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 160SE 170SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 150SE 300SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 38.8W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 40.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 37.1N 33.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 38.7N 27.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 40.1N 21.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 25SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 40.7N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 40.2N 13.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 38.8N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 160SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 36.0N 7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 38.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250532
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
600 AM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

...GABRIELLE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES...
...ON TRACK TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 40.6W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 40.6 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east near 31 mph (50 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days, followed by a slower eastward to east-southeastward motion
this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will
approach the Azores today and move across the island chain tonight
into early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is forecast to be at hurricane strength when it
passes through the Azores, then gradually weaken thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Azores tonight into
early Friday, with tropical storm conditions likely by this
evening. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across
portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: From later today into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring
3 to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time, outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
over the next couple of days, and the U.S. East Coast from North
Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada over the next day or so.
Swells from Gabrielle will begin reaching the Azores later today.
These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 250251
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

Gabrielle has weakened during the last several hours, with the
low-level center on the eastern edge of the central dense overcast.
A recent scatterometer pass indicated maximum winds of 60-65 kt,
and after assuming some underestimation due to the instrument
resolution, the current intensity is set to 75 kt. This is also
consistent with the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates.

The hurricane is moving very quickly to the east (085/27 kt) within
zonal mid-latitude flow. This eastward to east-northeastward
motion should continue for the next day or two as Gabrielle passes
near or over the Azores late today into early Friday. The only
notable change to the track forecast is a southward adjustment, but
that's mostly due to the center being more accurately located by
the scatterometer data. By the weekend, Gabrielle is forecast to
slow down and turn toward the east and southeast while passing over
the eastern Atlantic, in the general direction of Portugal.

Gabrielle could lose a bit more strength in the short term due to
persistent shear and cooler waters. However, it is also forecast
to continue to interact with an upper-level trough, which is likely
to cause a warm seclusion low structure and the formation of a
sting jet feature. This should result in re-strengthening, with a
band of hurricane-force winds wrapping around the back side of the
system around the time it moves over the Azores. The only
significant change to the last intensity forecast was a short-term
weakening, followed by a re-strengthening, consistent with the
latest ECMWF/GFS solutions. Gabrielle should complete its
extratropical transition in just after 36 h, and afterwards more
significant weakening is forecast as the post-tropical low fills
over the far eastern Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late today as a
hurricane. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of the islands
of the Azores, and hurricane conditions are likely tonight into
Friday. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across
portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next couple of days, and the east coast of the United
States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada for the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 36.0N 42.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 36.5N 37.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 37.9N 30.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 39.5N 24.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 40.5N 19.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/1200Z 40.5N 14.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 39.7N 10.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 36.8N 7.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 250250
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0300 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 42.3W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 160SE 170SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 150SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 42.3W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 44.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.5N 37.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 37.9N 30.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 39.5N 24.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 25SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 180SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 40.5N 19.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 40.5N 14.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 39.7N 10.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 180SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.8N 7.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 42.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250250
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

...GABRIELLE ON TRACK TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 42.3W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 42.3 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east near 31 mph (50 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days, followed by a slower eastward to east-southeastward motion
this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will
approach the Azores today and move across the island chain tonight
into early Friday.

Satellite-derived winds indicate that the maximum sustained winds
are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gabrielle is
forecast to be at hurricane strength when it passes through the
Azores, then gradually weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Azores tonight into
early Friday, with tropical storm conditions likely by this
evening. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across
portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: From later today into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring
3 to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time, outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
over the next couple of days, and the U.S. East Coast from North
Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada over the next day or so.
Swells from Gabrielle will begin reaching the Azores later today.
These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 242338
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
800 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES
LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 43.5W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 43.5 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east near 29 mph (46 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days, followed by a slower eastward to east-southeastward motion
this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will
approach the Azores during the day on Thursday and move across the
island chain late Thursday into early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next few days, but
Gabrielle is forecast to be at hurricane strength when it passes
through the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Azores Thursday
night into early Friday, with tropical storm conditions likely by
Thursday evening. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely
across portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time, outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
over the next couple of days, and the U.S. East Coast from North
Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada over the next day or so.
Swells from Gabrielle will begin reaching the Azores on Thursday.
These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 242037
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

The satellite presentation of Gabrielle indicates the hurricane is
contending with increasing westerly shear. Recent AMSR2 89 GHz and
37 GHz passive microwave images reveal the vortex is tilted with
height, and the western side of the inner core has been eroded. The
overall cloud pattern has taken an oblong shape this afternoon. The
satellite intensity estimates have gradually decreased today, and
the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. This
lies in between the latest UW-CIMSS objective estimates and 18 UTC
final-T Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane is moving quickly to the east (080/24 kt) within zonal
mid-latitude flow. This eastward to east-northeastward motion should
continue for the next day or two as Gabrielle passes near or over
the Azores late Thursday into early Friday. The track models are
tightly clustered for this portion of the forecast, although the
guidance consensus is once again faster than the previous cycle. The
NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. By the weekend,
Gabrielle is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east and
southeast while passing over the eastern Atlantic. There was an
overall northward shift of the guidance envelope from 72-120 h, and
this is reflected in the new NHC forecast.

As Gabrielle moves over cooler waters within a highly-sheared
environment, the hurricane is expected to gradually lose tropical
characteristics while interacting with an upper-level trough. The
GFS and ECMWF suggest the resulting warm seclusion low structure
could lead to the formation of a sting jet feature, with a band of
hurricane-force winds wrapping around the back side of the system
around the time it moves over the Azores. Since the global models
tend to handle these situations well, the NHC forecast closely
follows the GFS and ECMWF guidance during this part of the forecast.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Azores, and portions
of the islands are likely to experience significant wind and storm
surge impacts. Gabrielle should complete its extratropical
transition in 36-48 h, and afterwards more significant weakening is
forecast as the post-tropical low becomes vertically stacked and
fills over the eastern Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as
a hurricane. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of the islands
of the Azores, and hurricane conditions are likely Thursday night
into Friday. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely
across portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next couple of days, and the east coast of the United
States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada for the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 36.0N 45.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 36.4N 40.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 37.5N 33.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 39.1N 27.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 40.5N 22.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0600Z 41.1N 17.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1800Z 40.7N 13.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1800Z 38.0N 7.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/1800Z 36.0N 6.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 242035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

...GABRIELLE RACING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR
OVER THE AZORES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 45.2W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 45.2 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east near 28 mph (44 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days, followed by a slower eastward to east-southeastward motion
this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will
approach the Azores during the day on Thursday, and move across the
island chain late Thursday into early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next few days, but
Gabrielle is forecast to be at hurricane strength when it passes
through the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Azores Thursday
night into early Friday, with tropical storm conditions likely by
Thursday evening. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely
across portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time, outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
over the next couple of days, and the U.S. East Coast from North
Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada over the next day or so.
Swells from Gabrielle will begin reaching the Azores on Thursday.
These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 242035
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
2100 UTC WED SEP 24 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 45.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 130SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 150SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 45.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 46.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.4N 40.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 140SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 37.5N 33.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 140SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 39.1N 27.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 40.5N 22.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 41.1N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 40.7N 13.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 38.0N 7.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 36.0N 6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 45.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241740
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
200 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

...GABRIELLE ACCELERATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR
OVER THE AZORES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 46.8W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 46.8 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east near 26 mph (43 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days, followed by a slower eastward to east-southeastward motion
this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will
approach the Azores during the day on Thursday, and move across the
island chain Thursday night into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
but Gabrielle is still forecast to be a hurricane when it passes
through the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Azores Thursday night
and Friday, with tropical storm conditions likely by Thursday
evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
over the next couple of days, and the U.S. East Coast from North
Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada over the next day or so.
These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 241450
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

Gabrielle continues to show signs of gradual weakening. The
convective pattern of the hurricane has become less symmetric, with
restricted outflow on the western side of the system. Cold
convective cloud tops obscure the center of the hurricane, and no
eye feature is apparent in conventional satellite imagery. The
latest subjective Dvorak and objective satellite intensity estimates
range from 85-97 kt, and the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt.

Gabrielle is moving east-northeastward (075/22 kt) while embedded
within westerly mid-latitude flow. The hurricane is expected to
accelerate eastward to east-northeastward during the next couple of
days, passing near or over the Azores Thursday night into Friday. By
the weekend, Gabrielle is forecast to slow down and turn eastward
and then southeastward over the eastern Atlantic. There are some
forward speed differences in the track guidance, with the GFS
notably faster than the rest of the models through much of the
forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly faster in line with the latest multi-model consensus aids,
but otherwise is similar to the previous forecast. The track
uncertainty increases by day 5, with some models (GFS, Google
DeepMind) showing the system inland over Portugal while others
(ECMWF, UKMET) keep the low offshore.

Gabrielle will encounter increasing westerly shear and cooler waters
during the next couple of days, so some weakening is expected.
However, as Gabrielle begins to interact with an upper trough over
the northern Atlantic and starts extratropical transition, the GFS
and ECMWF depict a warm seclusion low structure with a band of
hurricane-force winds wrapping around the western side of the
circulation. This could result in significant wind impacts to the
Azores, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for those islands. The
NHC intensity and radii forecasts lean more heavily on the global
model wind fields through the first 48 h, as these better capture
the anticipated structural changes of the cyclone. Once Gabrielle
becomes fully extratropical, the system should weaken more rapidly
within a dry mid-level environment over cooler waters.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as
a hurricane. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of the islands
of the Azores, and hurricane conditions are likely Thursday night
and Friday. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely
across portions of the Azores even after the center passes.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next couple of days, and the east coast of the United
States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada for the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 36.0N 48.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 36.3N 44.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 36.9N 37.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 38.3N 30.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 40.0N 25.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0000Z 40.9N 20.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z 40.9N 16.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1200Z 39.0N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/1200Z 37.5N 8.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

...GABRIELLE MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 48.7W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1935 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 48.7 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). This general
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to continue
for the next couple of days, followed by a slower eastward to
east-southeastward motion this weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Gabrielle will approach the Azores during the day on
Thursday, and move across the island chain Thursday night into
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
but Gabrielle is still forecast to be a hurricane when it passes
through the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Azores Thursday night
and Friday, with tropical storm conditions likely by Thursday
evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
over the next couple of days, and the U.S. East Coast from North
Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada over the next day or so.
These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products issued by your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 241447
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
1500 UTC WED SEP 24 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 48.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 180SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 48.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 50.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 36.3N 44.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.9N 37.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.3N 30.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 40.0N 25.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 40.9N 20.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 40.9N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 160SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 39.0N 11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 80SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 8.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 48.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241146
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
800 AM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

...GABRIELLE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 50.2W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 50.2 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this
motion with some additional acceleration is expected to continue
for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of
Gabrielle will approach the Azores during the day on Thursday, and
move across the island chain Thursday night into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected during the next couple
of days, but Gabrielle is still expected to be a hurricane when it
passes through the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
Thursday night and Friday, with tropical storm conditions likely by
Thursday evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near the areas of onshore winds. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic
Canada over the next couple of days. These swells are expected to
produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 240834
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

Gabrielle continues to slowly weaken. The eye is no longer apparent
in conventional satellite imagery, and the outflow continues to be
restricted on the western side due to westerly vertical shear. The
various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are
in the 90-105 kt range and have decreased a little during the past
6 h. Based on these, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly
generous 100 kt.

The initial motion is now 075/22 kt. For the next three days or so,
Gabrielle should continue east-northeastward with some increase in
forward speed, with the cyclone moving through or near the Azores
in about 48 h. After three days, the cyclone is expected to slow
its forward speed and turn southeastward as it is steered by a
broad deep-layer trough over western Europe. Since there are only
minor changes in the track guidance since the last advisory, the new
forecast track is almost identical to the previous track through 72
h, and it is nudged a little south of the previous track after that
time.

Gabrielle should continue to weaken due to increasing shear and
decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track.
However, the ECMWF and the GFS are in good agreement that the
cyclone should have 75-80 kt winds in the southwestern quadrant as
it approaches and moves through the Azores. These forecast winds
are likely due to a baroclinic sting jet as Gabrielle interacts
with an upper-level trough and undergoes extratropical transition.
After that transition is complete in about 60 h, the global models
forecast the cyclone to steadily weaken over the northeastern
Atlantic. The new intensity forecast has some changes from the
previous advisory, with the first 24 h following the intensity
consensus and the subsequent forecast periods following a blend of
the ECMWF and GFS wind forecasts.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as
a hurricane. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for all of the
islands of the Azores, and hurricane conditions are likely Thursday
night and Friday.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 35.6N 51.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 35.9N 47.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 36.5N 41.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 37.6N 34.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 39.1N 28.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 40.7N 22.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0600Z 41.2N 18.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0600Z 40.3N 12.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/0600Z 38.0N 9.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240833
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC WED SEP 24 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 51.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 110SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 51.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 52.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.9N 47.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 110SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 37.6N 34.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 35SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 39.1N 28.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 40.7N 22.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 41.2N 18.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 40.3N 12.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 100SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 38.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 51.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240833
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...
...GABRIELLE CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 51.5W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Portugal has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 51.5 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this
motion with some additional acceleration is expected to continue
for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of
Gabrielle will approach the Azores during the day on Thursday, and
move across the island chain Thursday night into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected during the
next couple of days, but Gabrielle is still expected to be a
hurricane when it passes through the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
Thursday night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near the areas of onshore winds. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic
Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected to produce
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240532
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
200 AM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

...GABRIELLE MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE BY LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 52.7W
ABOUT 1430 MI...2305 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for all of or portions of
the Azores later this morning.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 52.7 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this
motion with some additional acceleration is expected to continue
for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of
Gabrielle will approach the Azores during the day on Thursday, and
move across the island chain Thursday night into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected during the
next couple of days, but Gabrielle is still expected to be a
hurricane when it passes through the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area
by Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near the areas of onshore winds. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic
Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected to produce
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240234
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE
BY LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 54.3W
ABOUT 1520 MI...2450 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 54.3 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this
motion with some additional acceleration is expected to continue
for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of
Gabrielle will approach the Azores during the day on Thursday, and
move across the island chain Thursday night into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected during the
next couple of days, but Gabrielle is still expected to be a
hurricane when it passes through the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area
by Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near the areas of onshore winds. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic
Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected to produce
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 240234
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

Gabrielle's eye became a little less distinct over the past several
hours, but the system continues to produce very cold-topped deep
convection to near -70 deg C. Convective banding features remain
fairly well defined, although upper-level outflow is becoming a
little restricted over the western portion of the circulation.
The advisory intensity estimate is reduced just slightly to 110
kt, which is a blend of the latest CI and final Dvorak T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane continues to pick up forward speed and the motion is
now around 065/19 kt. The basic steering scenario remains about
the same as in the previous advisories. Over the next few
days, Gabrielle should move between the subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic and a large mid-latitude trough over the north
Atlantic. This motion should take the system near or over the
Azores in about 60 hours. The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and close to the corrected consensus
model guidance.

Drier air, increasing vertical wind shear, and cooling ocean waters
should cause the system to steadily weaken during the next several
days. The only offsetting factor might be baroclinic interactions
with the nearby trough which could help Gabrielle maintain some of
its intensity while it moves near or through the Azores. The
official intensity forecast is just slightly above the latest LGEM
guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as
a hurricane. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the
islands of the Azores, and interests there should closely monitor
Gabrielle's progress as hurricane conditions are possible later this
week.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 35.1N 54.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 35.6N 50.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 36.1N 44.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 36.9N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 38.4N 31.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 40.1N 26.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 41.5N 20.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0000Z 41.5N 13.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/0000Z 39.5N 9.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240233
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0300 UTC WED SEP 24 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 54.3W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 54.3W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 55.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 50.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 110SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 36.1N 44.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 75SE 55SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.9N 38.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 75SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.4N 31.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 65SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 40.1N 26.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 41.5N 20.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 41.5N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE 120SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 39.5N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 54.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232335
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
800 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 55.2W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 55.2 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
motion with some additional acceleration is expected to continue
for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of
Gabrielle will approach the Azores during the day on Thursday, and
move across the island chain Thursday night into Friday.

maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected during the
next couple of days, but Gabrielle is still expected to be a
hurricane when it passes through the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area
by Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near the areas of onshore winds. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches, or 75 to 125 mm, of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic
Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected to produce
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 232041
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

This afternoon, Gabrielle's presentation on satellite imagery is
starting to degrade a bit, with the clear eye observed this morning
becoming more cloud filled. In addition, the vertical tilt appears
to be gradually increasing, and a recent 1724 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass also shows that the eyewall is also becoming more eroded on
the southwest side, likely due to increasing shear. Both the SAB
and TAFB 18 UTC Dvorak fixes were still CI T6.0/115 kt, and the
objective intensity estimates range from 107 to 122 kt, so the
initial intensity was only nudged down to 115 kt on this advisory.

The hurricane is gradually accelerating to the east-northeast, with
the estimated motion at 065/18 kt. This general motion should
continue for the next 2-3 days with some further acceleration as it
rounds the edge of the subtropical ridge centered to its southwest.
Another upper-level trough approaches Gabrielle in 2-3 days, and
should result in the hurricane turning back a little more poleward
in 72 h, with Gabrielle moving through the Azores in 48-60 h.
Compared to this morning, the guidance has made another southward
shift, and the NHC track forecast was moved a little south of the
prior advisory, but not as far south as the HCCA and TVCN consensus
aids. Further southward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent
forecast cycles.

Vertical wind shear continues to slowly increase over the
hurricane, now diagnosed at 20 kt by the ECMWF-based SHIPS. This
shear will increase further while Gabrielle moves over cooler ocean
waters, and the latest guidance shows a slightly faster rate of
weakening than earlier. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit,
showing steady weakening through the next 2-3 days, though
Gabrielle should still be a hurricane when it moves across the
Azores. Thereafter, a trough interaction will hasten the
extratropical transition of the hurricane, which should be complete
in about three days. The resulting baroclinic interaction may
temporarily slow the weakening rate between 48-72 hours, but more
steady weakening should resume after Gabrielle becomes
post-tropical. The NHC intensity guidance is in good agreement with
the guidance suite, a little lower than the prior cycle.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as
a hurricane. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the
islands of the Azores, and interests there should closely monitor
Gabrielle's progress as hurricane conditions are possible later this
week.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 34.6N 56.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 35.2N 52.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 36.3N 40.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 37.4N 34.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 39.5N 28.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 41.1N 23.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1800Z 42.7N 15.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1800Z 40.4N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232039
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 56.2W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1635 MI...2630 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 56.2 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
motion with some additional acceleration is expected to continue for
the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of
Gabrielle will approach the Azores during the day on Thursday, and
move across the island chain Thursday night into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, but Gabrielle is still expected to be a hurricane
when it passes moves through the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area
by Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near the areas of onshore winds where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches or 75 to 125 mm of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic
Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected to produce
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 232038
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
2100 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 56.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 56.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 57.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.2N 52.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 110SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 75SE 55SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.3N 40.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 75SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 37.4N 34.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 65SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 39.5N 28.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 41.1N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 65SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 42.7N 15.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE 120SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 40.4N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 70SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 56.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231737
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
200 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

...GABRIELLE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 57.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1710 MI...2755 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 57.5 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will begin approaching the
Azores during the day on Thursday, and move across the island chain
overnight into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gabrielle is still a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected
during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area
by Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near the areas of onshore winds where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches or 75 to 125 mm of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic
Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected to produce
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 231448
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

Gabrielle's structure on the GOES-19 mesoscale sector over the
hurricane has not changed a whole lot since the prior advisory, with
a very cold and distinct eye surrounded by cold eyewall convection
below -70 C. However, a recent GMI microwave pass did show that the
tilt between low-level eye at 37 GHz and the mid-level eye at 89 GHz
was starting to increase. Given little change in structure, it is
not surprising that the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates have remained steady, and thus the initial intensity is
being held at 120 kt this advisory.

Gabrielle continues to turn and is now moving east-northeastward at
060/17 kt. The hurricane could turn a little more eastward over the
next 12-24 hours as it rounds the edge of the subtropical ridge
centered to its southwest. Thereafter, a large mid-latitude trough
ejecting out of Atlantic Canada will dig toward the tropical
cyclone, with a piece of this trough forecast to phase with the
cyclone in about 72 hours. This evolution should result in Gabrielle
starting to move more poleward again, but not before it passes very
close to or over the Azores during this period. There has been a
southward shift in the track guidance this morning, and the NHC
track forecast has been shifted a little south, especially after 48
hours. The latest track is roughly a blend between the HCCA and GDMI
aids, which have preformed well so far this hurricane season.

While Gabrielle has been resilient against gradually increasing
westerly shear, this shear is starting to disrupt its structure ever
so slightly, and the tilt observed on microwave imagery is also
becoming more evident on GOES-19 visible imagery too. The shear is
forecast to soon increase above 20 kt in 24 hours, and then increase
above 30 kt in 48 h. Thus, gradual weakening should begin soon, with
that rate of weakening increasing through the forecast period. As
mentioned previously, the aforementioned trough interaction could
provide some baroclinic enhancement in the form of enhanced
upper-level divergence, but should also initiate extratropical
transition, which is expected to complete in 3-4 days just after it
passes the Azores. The new intensity forecast is similar to the
previous forecast in 12-24 h, but a little lower thereafter, and
remains in good agreement with the intensity consensus.

Given the latest updates to the track and intensity forecast of
Gabrielle, the Azores meteorological Service has issued a Hurricane
Watch for all of the islands of the Azores.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as
a hurricane. In response, a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all
of the islands of the Azores and interests there should closely
monitor Gabrielle's progress.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward,
as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 33.9N 58.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 35.6N 49.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 35.9N 43.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 37.0N 37.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 38.8N 30.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 40.7N 25.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 44.0N 16.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1200Z 43.0N 10.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231445
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

...GABRIELLE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 58.3W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1765 MI...2840 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for
all the islands of the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* All of the Azores

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 58.3 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will continue to move away
from Bermuda today, but begin approaching the Azores on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area
by Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near the areas of onshore winds where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: From Thursday into Friday morning, Gabrielle may bring 3
to 5 inches or 75 to 125 mm of rainfall across the central and
western Azores. During the same time outer bands from Gabrielle may
also result in 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across the
eastern Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic
Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected to produce
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 231443
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
1500 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 58.3W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 58.3W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 59.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 60SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 49.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.9N 43.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 37.0N 37.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.8N 30.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 40.7N 25.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 44.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 43.0N 10.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 70SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 58.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230849
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

Gabrielle remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery.
However, it appears to have reached peak intensity, as the eyewall
convective tops have become more asymmetric during the past few
hours and the eye has become less distinct. This is likely due to
the onset of moderate southwesterly vertical shear as shown by the
restricted outflow in the southwestern quadrant. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the
115-125 kt range, so the initial intensity is held at 120 kt.

The hurricane continues moving northeastward or 045/11 kt. Gabrielle
should continue to move around the northwestern side of the
mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 12-24 h and then
accelerate east-northeastward in the southern portion of the
mid-latitude westerlies. A slight turn to the northeast ahead of a
higher-latitude trough is expected in 72-96 h, followed by a more
eastward motion as Gabrielle merges with the trough. The guidance
envelope has only minor changes since the last advisory. So, the new
forecast, which lies near or just north of the consensus models, is
close to the previous forecast through 60 h and a little south of it
after that time. The new forecast is also a little faster than the
previous forecast.

Gradual weakening is expected during the next 24 h due to shear and
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast
track. After that, increasing shear and even cooler water should
cause a faster weakening. While the above-mentioned trough could
provide enhanced divergence aloft which could help Gabrielle
maintain some of its intensity, it is also likely to cause Gabrielle
to start extratropical transition in about 60 h. This transition
will likely be complete just after the cyclone passes the Azores.
The new intensity forecast is nudged downward from the previous
forecast and is in good agreement with the intensity consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward,
as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle
though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind,
rainfall, and wave impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 33.2N 59.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 35.2N 52.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 36.3N 40.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 37.9N 34.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 39.7N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 43.3N 19.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0600Z 42.7N 13.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230848
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 59.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1855 MI...2985 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 59.7 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster
northeastward to east- northeastward motion is expected through
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will
continue to move away from Bermuda today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect
Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and
Atlantic Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected
to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products issued by your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230847
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 59.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 59.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.2N 52.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 110SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.3N 40.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 37.9N 34.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 39.7N 28.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 150SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 43.3N 19.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 42.7N 13.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 180SW 150NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 59.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 230400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 104.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2025 16.1N 104.6W MODERATE
12UTC 23.09.2025 16.1N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2025 16.0N 109.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2025 16.1N 112.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2025 15.5N 115.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2025 15.2N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2025 15.4N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2025 15.8N 123.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2025 16.7N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2025 17.8N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2025 18.6N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2025 19.6N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2025 20.0N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2025 19.5N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2025 18.5N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 61.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2025 31.9N 61.5W INTENSE
12UTC 23.09.2025 33.6N 59.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2025 34.7N 55.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2025 35.5N 50.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2025 35.7N 43.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 25.09.2025 35.6N 37.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2025 37.8N 31.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2025 40.8N 26.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2025 41.7N 23.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2025 43.4N 18.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2025 43.3N 15.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2025 43.2N 11.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2025 43.3N 9.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2025 44.6N 3.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2025 43.1N 1.5E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 29.2N 157.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2025 28.7N 159.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2025 27.4N 162.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2025 26.0N 164.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 21.8N 61.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2025 21.8N 61.5W WEAK
00UTC 27.09.2025 22.2N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2025 22.4N 63.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2025 23.1N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2025 24.4N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2025 25.4N 67.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2025 27.0N 68.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2025 28.3N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 38.6N 10.8E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2025 38.6N 10.8E WEAK
00UTC 27.09.2025 38.5N 16.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2025 40.2N 18.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230400


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 230400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 104.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2025 0 16.1N 104.6W 999 31
1200UTC 23.09.2025 12 16.1N 107.1W 999 31
0000UTC 24.09.2025 24 16.0N 109.5W 997 38
1200UTC 24.09.2025 36 16.1N 112.1W 999 35
0000UTC 25.09.2025 48 15.5N 115.5W 996 39
1200UTC 25.09.2025 60 15.2N 118.3W 996 36
0000UTC 26.09.2025 72 15.4N 120.9W 996 38
1200UTC 26.09.2025 84 15.8N 123.5W 996 38
0000UTC 27.09.2025 96 16.7N 125.6W 999 32
1200UTC 27.09.2025 108 17.8N 127.3W 1002 27
0000UTC 28.09.2025 120 18.6N 128.2W 1004 25
1200UTC 28.09.2025 132 19.6N 128.2W 1007 22
0000UTC 29.09.2025 144 20.0N 127.7W 1009 21
1200UTC 29.09.2025 156 19.5N 127.5W 1010 20
0000UTC 30.09.2025 168 18.5N 127.9W 1010 19

HURRICANE GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 61.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2025 0 31.9N 61.5W 959 84
1200UTC 23.09.2025 12 33.6N 59.3W 967 76
0000UTC 24.09.2025 24 34.7N 55.5W 963 82
1200UTC 24.09.2025 36 35.5N 50.3W 969 76
0000UTC 25.09.2025 48 35.7N 43.9W 981 62
1200UTC 25.09.2025 60 35.6N 37.3W 986 56
0000UTC 26.09.2025 72 37.8N 31.5W 985 48
1200UTC 26.09.2025 84 40.8N 26.9W 982 57
0000UTC 27.09.2025 96 41.7N 23.5W 980 54
1200UTC 27.09.2025 108 43.4N 18.4W 989 40
0000UTC 28.09.2025 120 43.3N 15.0W 995 36
1200UTC 28.09.2025 132 43.2N 11.2W 998 32
0000UTC 29.09.2025 144 43.3N 9.2W 1002 29
1200UTC 29.09.2025 156 44.6N 3.7W 1008 22
0000UTC 30.09.2025 168 43.1N 1.5E 1013 20

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 29.2N 157.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2025 72 28.7N 159.4W 1013 29
1200UTC 26.09.2025 84 27.4N 162.7W 1014 25
0000UTC 27.09.2025 96 26.0N 164.8W 1014 22
1200UTC 27.09.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 21.8N 61.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2025 84 21.8N 61.5W 1010 33
0000UTC 27.09.2025 96 22.2N 62.3W 1008 36
1200UTC 27.09.2025 108 22.4N 63.6W 1006 37
0000UTC 28.09.2025 120 23.1N 64.9W 1004 44
1200UTC 28.09.2025 132 24.4N 66.6W 1002 45
0000UTC 29.09.2025 144 25.4N 67.8W 999 49
1200UTC 29.09.2025 156 27.0N 68.9W 997 49
0000UTC 30.09.2025 168 28.3N 69.4W 993 53

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 38.6N 10.8E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2025 84 38.6N 10.8E 1012 37
0000UTC 27.09.2025 96 38.5N 16.6E 1012 29
1200UTC 27.09.2025 108 40.2N 18.4E 1010 39
0000UTC 28.09.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230400


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230234
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

Gabrielle remains a formidable Category-4 hurricane with a
well-defined 15 n-mi diameter eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops
of near -70 deg C. The current intensity estimate is held at 120
kt, which is slightly higher than the latest subjective Dvorak
estimates of 115 kt from both TAFB and SAB. This is also a blend
of objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane has turned toward the northeast and is now moving at
around 040/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains about the
same as in the previous advisory. Gabrielle should move around the
northwestern side of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next
day or so and then accelerate east-northeastward between the ridge
and the mid-latitude westerlies through about 72 hours. A slight
turn to the northeast ahead of a higher-latitude trough is expected
in 3-4 days. This official track forecast is similar to the
previous one. The latest Google DeepMind forecast is a little
farther north of the model consensus. Simulated satellite imagery
from the global models suggest extratropical transition will occur
on Friday while the system is in the vicinity of the Azores.

No significant change in intensity is anticipated into early
Tuesday while Gabrielle remains in a conducive atmospheric and
oceanic environment By late tomorrow and beyond, increasing
vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air and cooler waters should
cause weakening. However, an approaching upper-level trough could
provide enhanced divergence aloft which could help Gabrielle
maintain some of its intensity during the next few days. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and
close to the model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina
northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

2. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle
though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential
wind, rainfall, and wave impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 32.4N 61.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 35.5N 50.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 35.9N 44.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 37.0N 37.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 38.8N 31.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 43.0N 22.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/0000Z 44.0N 16.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230233
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0300 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 61.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 61.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 61.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.5N 50.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 110SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.9N 44.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 37.0N 37.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.8N 31.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 150SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 43.0N 22.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 44.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 210SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 61.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

...GABRIELLE PASSING EAST OF BERMUDA...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 61.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1945 MI...3130 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 61.0 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster
northeastward to east- northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday
and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle
will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected
through early Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening later on
Tuesday and on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina
northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, and are expected to continue
for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 222034
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

Gabrielle has continued to become better organized this afternoon,
with very cold cloud tops in the eyewall and a warm eye. Data from
both NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirm satellite estimates
that Gabrielle is a category 4 hurricane, with peak 700-mb winds of
129 kt in the eastern quadrant a few hours ago. Additionally,
tail-Doppler radar data showed maximum 0.5 km winds of 135-140 kt
on the last pass, and the double eyewall structure has
consolidated into a single eyewall again. These data supported an
intensity of at least 115 kt at 18Z, and with the slight
improvement on satellite since that time, the initial wind speed is
set to 120 kt.

The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 10 kt.
There are no important changes to report to the track forecast,
with the subtropical ridge providing a seemingly reliable steering
for the next several days. Gabrielle is forecast to turn
northeastward overnight and then move at a more rapid pace to the
east-northeast during the next few days due to stronger mid-latitude
flow. The new forecast remains on the faster side of the guidance,
closer to the Google DeepMind and GFS model. Extratropical
transition is expected late on Friday while the system is in the
vicinity of the Azores.

Little significant intensity change with Gabrielle is expected as
the cyclone begins to move into a less conducive environment,
though the overnight diurnal convective max should help the
hurricane maintain its strength in the short term. A combination of
cooler waters and increasing shear should cause Gabrielle to start
to weaken by late tomorrow. While SSTs drop off notably by
midweek, an upper-level trough is likely to provide extra divergence
aloft, keeping the hurricane stronger than other environmental
conditions might suggest. The new NHC intensity forecast is quite
similar to the previous one, showing a gradual weakening during the
long-range forecast and near the model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina
northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

2. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle
though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential
wind, rainfall, and wave impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 31.7N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 32.8N 60.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 35.7N 47.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 36.3N 40.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 37.7N 34.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 42.8N 22.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1800Z 44.5N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 222033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

...GABRIELLE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 61.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 2005 MI...3230 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 61.8 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected tonight, followed by a faster
northeastward or east- northeastward motion on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is
expected to pass east of Bermuda tonight.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite data indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little significant change in strength is
forecast tonight, followed by a gradual weakening on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina
northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, and are expected to continue
for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 222033
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
2100 UTC MON SEP 22 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 61.8W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 61.8W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.8N 60.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.7N 47.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.3N 40.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 37.7N 34.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 150SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 42.8N 22.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 44.5N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 210SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 61.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 221601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 102.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2025 16.1N 102.7W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2025 15.8N 105.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2025 16.2N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2025 16.4N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2025 16.7N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2025 16.1N 116.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2025 16.3N 118.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2025 17.0N 121.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2025 18.1N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2025 18.9N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2025 19.9N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2025 20.6N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2025 21.3N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 62.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2025 30.6N 62.1W STRONG
00UTC 23.09.2025 32.4N 61.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.09.2025 33.6N 59.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2025 34.5N 55.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2025 35.0N 50.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2025 34.6N 45.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2025 34.2N 39.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2025 34.8N 34.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2025 37.3N 30.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2025 39.9N 26.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2025 42.0N 24.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2025 42.8N 20.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2025 42.5N 16.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2025 42.2N 13.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2025 41.1N 11.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 29.2N 153.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2025 28.9N 154.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2025 29.2N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2025 28.4N 158.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 22.0N 61.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2025 22.5N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2025 22.5N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2025 23.1N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2025 23.7N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2025 24.5N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2025 25.6N 66.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2025 27.2N 66.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221601


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 221601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 102.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2025 0 16.1N 102.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 23.09.2025 12 15.8N 105.3W 1001 29
1200UTC 23.09.2025 24 16.2N 107.3W 1000 33
0000UTC 24.09.2025 36 16.4N 110.1W 998 36
1200UTC 24.09.2025 48 16.7N 112.8W 999 35
0000UTC 25.09.2025 60 16.1N 116.1W 997 37
1200UTC 25.09.2025 72 16.3N 118.8W 997 37
0000UTC 26.09.2025 84 17.0N 121.5W 999 34
1200UTC 26.09.2025 96 18.1N 124.0W 1002 30
0000UTC 27.09.2025 108 18.9N 126.4W 1005 26
1200UTC 27.09.2025 120 19.9N 128.4W 1007 21
0000UTC 28.09.2025 132 20.6N 129.8W 1008 23
1200UTC 28.09.2025 144 21.3N 131.0W 1011 18
0000UTC 29.09.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 62.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2025 0 30.6N 62.1W 974 75
0000UTC 23.09.2025 12 32.4N 61.1W 956 90
1200UTC 23.09.2025 24 33.6N 59.0W 962 79
0000UTC 24.09.2025 36 34.5N 55.4W 965 78
1200UTC 24.09.2025 48 35.0N 50.6W 970 75
0000UTC 25.09.2025 60 34.6N 45.2W 979 63
1200UTC 25.09.2025 72 34.2N 39.6W 978 63
0000UTC 26.09.2025 84 34.8N 34.9W 985 53
1200UTC 26.09.2025 96 37.3N 30.7W 982 57
0000UTC 27.09.2025 108 39.9N 26.8W 989 48
1200UTC 27.09.2025 120 42.0N 24.3W 992 49
0000UTC 28.09.2025 132 42.8N 20.4W 994 41
1200UTC 28.09.2025 144 42.5N 16.4W 1000 34
0000UTC 29.09.2025 156 42.2N 13.6W 1002 30
1200UTC 29.09.2025 168 41.1N 11.2W 1005 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 29.2N 153.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2025 84 28.9N 154.9W 1012 25
1200UTC 26.09.2025 96 29.2N 157.0W 1012 23
0000UTC 27.09.2025 108 28.4N 158.2W 1012 22
1200UTC 27.09.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 22.0N 61.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2025 96 22.5N 61.5W 1010 35
0000UTC 27.09.2025 108 22.5N 62.5W 1008 37
1200UTC 27.09.2025 120 23.1N 63.5W 1007 38
0000UTC 28.09.2025 132 23.7N 64.1W 1005 45
1200UTC 28.09.2025 144 24.5N 66.1W 1003 41
0000UTC 29.09.2025 156 25.6N 66.8W 1000 43
1200UTC 29.09.2025 168 27.2N 66.4W 997 45


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221601


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 221455
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows that Gabrielle is an impressive,
well-organized hurricane. The eye of Gabrielle has recently
warmed, though the eyewall convection remains a bit fractured in
the northeastern quadrant. Bermuda radar also has the suggestion
of the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle, with an outer
eyewall possibly forming. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt,
at the top end of the various intensity estimates, and a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter will be in the area during the next few hours
for a closer look at the hurricane.

Gabrielle is moving northward at about 9 kt. The track forecast
seems straightforward with the subtropical ridge providing the
steering for the next several days. The hurricane should turn
northeastward tonight and then move faster to the east-northeast
during the next few days due to Gabrielle encountering stronger
mid-latitude flow. Model guidance is generally a bit faster than
the last cycle, and the new forecast is adjusted in that direction.
Extratropical transition is expected on Friday while the system is
in the vicinity of the Azores.

The hurricane is moving over very warm waters within moderate shear
today, so further intensification is expected. A combination of
cooler waters and increasing shear should cause Gabrielle to start
to weaken tomorrow. While SSTs drop off more significantly by
midweek, an upper-level trough could provide a favorable trough
interaction, keeping the hurricane more organized than other
environmental conditions might suggest. The new NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, showing a gradual
weakening during most of the forecast and lies close to the model
consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusty winds and showers will be possible across Bermuda today
and tonight as Hurricane Gabrielle passes by to the east.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and should continue during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

3. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores on Thursday.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle
though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential
wind, rainfall, and wave impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 30.8N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 35.6N 50.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 36.1N 44.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 37.1N 37.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 41.6N 25.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 45.0N 16.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

...GABRIELLE COULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 62.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda and the Azores should monitor the progress of
Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 62.3 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
is expected today, followed by a faster northeastward or east-
northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gabrielle could intensify even more today,
though some weakening should begin by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and are expected to continue through the early
part this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 221454
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 62.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 62.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 62.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 50.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 36.1N 44.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 25SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 37.1N 37.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 35SE 35SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 41.6N 25.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 45.0N 16.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 221241
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Special Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

Satellite images indicate that Gabrielle has rapidly intensified
into a major hurricane with a well-defined eye. The current
intensity is set to 105 kt, a blend of constrained Dvorak estimates
of about 100 kt with higher Data-T values of 115 kt. Further
intensification is expected today, and the intensity forecast is
raised for the first 24 hours, then kept the same afterwards.
Small changes were made to the wind radii to account for the
stronger hurricane.

No changes were required to the track forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusty winds and showers will be possible across Bermuda today
and tonight as Hurricane Gabrielle passes by to the east.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and should continue during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1300Z 30.6N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 31.3N 62.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 32.9N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 34.4N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 35.4N 53.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 36.0N 47.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 36.7N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 40.7N 28.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 44.2N 19.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 221240
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
1300 UTC MON SEP 22 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 62.2W AT 22/1300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 62.2W AT 22/1300Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 62.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.3N 62.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.9N 60.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.4N 57.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.4N 53.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 36.0N 47.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.7N 41.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 140SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 40.7N 28.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 44.2N 19.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 160SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 62.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221240
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Special Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

...GABRIELLE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 62.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM AST (1300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 62.2 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
is expected today, followed by a faster northeastward or
east-northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda tonight.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Gabrielle
is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Gabrielle could intensify even more today, though some
weakening should begin by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and are expected to continue through the early
part this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220858
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

Satellite images show that deep convection wraps around the inner
core of Gabrielle with cold cloud tops near -80C, and GLM data
depicts some lightning ongoing near the center of the system.
Unfortunately, there have been no microwave images this morning to
get a better idea of the hurricanes structure. However, there have
been brief hints that an eye may be trying to form in infrared
imagery. There is a fairly large range of subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates. Latest Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 77 kt to 90 kt, and estimates
from UW-CIMSS such as DPRINT, AiDT, and SATCON range from 57 to 79
kt. Using these estimates and the improved satellite presentation,
the intensity is raised to 80 kt for this advisory.

Gabrielle is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of
340/9 kt. A turn towards the north is expected today and tonight as
Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The
system will then be steered within stronger west-southwesterly
mid-latitude flow, and accelerate towards the northeast and
east-northeast during the next few days. The latest track guidance
is in fairly good agreement in the short term, and the NHC forecast
was nudged slightly westward in the short-term, given the initial
position, but lies near the previous. However, beyond days 2-3 there
continues to be a large spread in the track guidance suite and
mainly due to differences in the forward speed of Gabrielle. The
latest NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous forecast
and lies closer to the HCCA corrected consensus, but is not as fast
as the Google DeepMind. Given uncertainty in the track forecast at
long ranges, it is too early to predict what, if any, impacts
Gabrielle could have on the Azores.

The hurricane is within a favorable environment for strengthening,
over the next 24 hours or so, with warm sea surface temperatures and
light to moderate wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast lies near
the higher end of the guidance envelope near the hurricane regional
models, with Gabrielle forecast to become a major hurricane tonight.
After that time, moderate to strong westerly wind shear will begin
to impact the system, as well as slightly drier mid-level air. By
day 3, sea surface temperatures drop to around 26 C, and will
continue to cool along the forecast track. Thus a weakening trend is
forecast beyond 24h and the NHC forecast trends towards the
consensus aids through the middle and end of the forecast period.
Global models and SHIPS guidance are in slightly better agreement
that Gabrielle will begin to transition to an extratropical cyclone
towards the end of the period and the latest NHC forecast now shows
the system Extra-Tropical by day 5. It should be noted that some
models do show Gabrielle attaining extratropical characteristics
sooner than explicitly forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusty winds and showers will be possible across Bermuda today
and tonight as Hurricane Gabrielle passes by to the east.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and should continue during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 30.0N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 31.3N 62.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 32.9N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 34.4N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 35.4N 53.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 36.0N 47.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 36.7N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 40.7N 28.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 44.2N 19.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220857
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

...GABRIELLE STRENGTHENS...
...FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 62.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 62.5 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is forecast later today, followed by a faster
northeastward or east-northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of
Bermuda tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next day or
so, and Gabrielle could become a major hurricane tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and are expected to continue through the early
part this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220856
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC MON SEP 22 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 62.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 62.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 62.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.3N 62.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.9N 60.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.4N 57.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.4N 53.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 36.0N 47.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.7N 41.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 140SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 40.7N 28.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 44.2N 19.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 160SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 62.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220247
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Gabrielle's core convection has started
to wrap up and become a bit more impressive-looking. The latest
subjective and objective intensity estimates still range from about
55-68 kt, so the intensity is held at 65 kt for this advisory. Some
minor adjustments were made to the wind radii based on a 22/0052 UTC
ASCAT-C pass.

The motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325 degrees at 10
kt. A turn to the north-northwest is expected overnight with a
northward turn expected on Monday as Gabrielle rounds the western
part of the subtropical ridge, and model guidance is in excellent
agreement on the first 36 hours of the track forecast. There was a
very small westward adjustment to the track forecast, but the latest
ASCAT data, which shows that tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward no farther than 60 n mi in the western semicircle, strongly
indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind field will remain well
to the east of Bermuda when Gabrielle makes its closest approach to
the island late Monday. Thereafter, the cyclone will accelerate
east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. Mainly minor
adjustments were made to the official track forecast, but it should
be noted that beyond day 3, there is a large spread in the guidance,
and confidence in the track forecast is low at that time range.

Gabrielle is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours,
especially given how warm the waters are. However, the amount of
strengthening that will occur is uncertain due to moderate westerly
wind shear that may affect Gabrielle. For now, the NHC forecast
will continue to show rapid intensification over the next 24 hours
given the recent improvement noted in the inner-core structure,
mentioned above. The NHC forecast during this period is in
agreement with a blend of the HAFS/HMON/HWRF/HCCA models. By late
Tuesday, steady weakening is expected as wind shear increases,
Gabrielle moves into a drier environment, and water temperatures
begin to decrease along its path. The intensity forecast from Day 2
onward is a blend of the previous NHC forecast with the latest
intensity consensus, which is slightly stronger than the previous
NHC prediction.

Beyond day 4, there is a very large spread among the models as to
Gabrielle's track, intensity, and whether or not it will be starting
to attain extratropical characteristics. Therefore, it is too early
to predict what, if any, impacts Gabrielle could have on the Azores.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda on
Monday. While the chances of impacts are still decreasing, interests
on Bermuda should continue to monitor forecast updates since some
wind and rainfall impacts are still possible.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and should continue through early this week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 29.2N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 30.4N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 32.0N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 34.7N 56.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 35.5N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 36.2N 45.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 39.0N 33.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 42.7N 23.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220245
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0300 UTC MON SEP 22 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.4N 62.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.7N 56.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.5N 51.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 36.2N 45.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 39.0N 33.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 140SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 42.7N 23.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 62.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220245
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD SOON...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 62.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 62.2 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
north is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward or
east-northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Monday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next day or so,
and Gabrielle could become a major hurricane Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and are expected to continue through the early
part this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 212051
TCDAT2

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

We are fortunate to have three NOAA aircraft (two P3's and one G-IV)
which are conducting research missions into Gabrielle this
afternoon. The data they have provided has been valuable, showing
the storm has become better aligned in the low to mid-levels
compared to this morning, though the eyewall structure has been
coming and going due to occasional dry air mixing out near the
cyclone's core. The highest 750 mb flight-level winds were up to 70
kt, which using a typical 0.85 reduction supports 60 kt. However,
the Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) on board one of the NOAA-P3 aircraft
showed a swath of 0.5 km winds up to 79 kt in the eastern semicircle
at 1741 UTC. Using a more conservative 0.80 reduction factor
for this level supports an intensity of 65 kt, and Gabrielle has
become a hurricane.

Recon fixes this afternoon show that the hurricane is beginning to
turn more north-northwest, with the estimated motion now at
330/9-kt. The track reasoning in the short-term remains the same as
this morning, with Gabrielle rounding the western edge of the
subtropical ridge, which should allow the hurricane to turn
northward and then northeastward over the next couple of days. There
was another small adjustment west in the track over the next 24 h,
but this still keeps Gabrielle's wind field well to the east of
Bermuda when it passes its latitude towards the end of the day
Monday. Thereafter, the hurricane should begin to gradually
accelerate in the westerly flow around the north side of the
aforementioned ridge. The biggest change in the track forecast
towards the end of the period is that the guidance continues to
shift a little more southward, especially the most recent 12 UTC
ECMWF, which shifted closer to the Azores in 4-5 days. For now,
the NHC track forecast will only be shifted a little southward this
cycle, choosing to stay closer to the reliable consensus aids TVCN
and HCCA, though it's possible some southward adjustments will
be needed in subsequent forecasts.

While the structure of Gabrielle on geostationary satellite is still
a little ragged with warmer cloud tops than this morning, it has
become more axis-symmetric, and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass at
1733 UTC indicates a thicker 37-GHz cyan ring than the one observed
this morning. 18 UTC DTOPS guidance, which did well predicting
Erin's rapid intensification period earlier this year, is now
indicating a 62 to 76 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in
intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, I see no reason to not forecast
continued steady to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h,
which is in line with the higher end of the intensity guidance, but
not as high as the most recent HAFS-A run. After 36 h, SHIPS
guidance shows southwesterly shear steadily increasing, and this
should lead to steady weakening through the end of the forecast
period. There is still some question as to Gabrielle's structure at
the end of the forecast and whether it will be losing tropical
characteristics. The southward shift in the forecast track suggests
it might hang on to tropical characteristics a little longer than
originally expected. The intensity forecast falls back close to the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids by the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is now a hurricane, but is still expected to pass east
of Bermuda on Monday. While the chances of impacts are still
decreasing, interests on Bermuda should continue to monitor forecast
updates since some wind and rainfall impacts are still possible.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and should continue through early this week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 28.5N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 29.7N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 31.2N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 37.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 41.5N 25.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 212048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

...GABRIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was
located by NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 28.5 North,
longitude 61.7 West. Gabrielle is now moving toward the
north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn more northward is
forecast on Monday, followed by a somewhat faster northeastward or
east-northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Monday
evening.

Data from the NOAA hurricane hunters indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts,
making Gabrielle a hurricane. Additional steady to rapid
intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and Gabrielle
could become a major hurricane in the early part of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by NOAA aircraft data is 992
mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and are expected to continue through the early
part this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 212047
TCMAT2

HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 61.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 61.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.7N 62.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N 62.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 45NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 37.5N 36.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 140SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 41.5N 25.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 211455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

Structurally, Gabrielle continues to become better organized, with
cold convective cloud tops now finally starting to wrap around the
circulation of the storm. In fact, earlier this morning, a WSF-M
microwave pass revealed a cyan ring on the 37-GHz channel, which was
supported by the most recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
mission, which did indicate an eyewall, albeit still open to the
east-southeast. Unfortunately the plane wasn't able to complete a
full pattern, and its possible the highest flight-level winds
haven't been sampled in the northeastern quadrant. For now the
intensity will be held at 55 kt, in good agreement with the 12 UTC
subjective Dvorak fix from TAFB and latest D-PRINT estimate from
UW-CIMSS.

The earlier recon flight found the center a little further west of
the prior forecast track, but the estimated motion still remains
northwestward at 320/10 kt. Gabrielle is rounding the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge centered to its east, and thus
should continue to turn northward and ultimately northeastward over
the next 24-48 hours. In addition to a slight westward shift due to
the initial position, the guidance has shifted a little slower
again this cycle, and the NHC forecast track was nudged in that
direction. However, this latest track still keeps Gabrielle well to
the east of Bermuda when it passes its latitude in about 36 hours.
Thereafter, the cyclone should begin to gradually accelerate in the
westerly flow around the north side of the aforementioned ridge,
and should ultimately be picked up by another mid-latitude trough
digging into the central subtropical Atlantic in about 4-5 days.
The latter portion of the NHC track forecast has been little
changed, blending the reliable HCCA and Google Deep Mind (GDMI)
aids.

While the morning Air Force mission found that Gabrielle was still a
bit tilted with height, recent satellite images suggest the low and
mid-level centers are becoming better aligned as I write this
passage. In addition, environmental conditions remain quite
favorable in the short-term. While the SHIPS rapid intensification
indices are not especially high, they are 2 times above climatology,
and DTOPS is higher showing a 26-43 percent chance of a 25 to 30 kt
increase in intensity over the next 24 h. Both HAFS-A/B are
explicitly forecasting rapid intensification over the next 24 hours,
and given the improving inner core structure, this seems like a
reasonable prediction. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast will now
forecast rapid intensification over the next 24 h, and peaking
Gabrielle as a 95 kt hurricane in 36 h. This value is on the high
side of the intensity guidance, but not as high as the latest
HAFS-A/B runs which both show it becoming a major hurricane in 36
hours, and that remains a possibility. Thereafter, vertical wind
shear out of the southwest markedly increases, and there is also dry
air lurking in that region that will likely disrupt Gabrielle's
core, leading to weakening through the remainder of the forecast
period. Gabrielle may be close to becoming extratropical at the end
of the forecast as it begins to phase with an deep-layer trough
forecast to be picking it up from the west. However, that appears to
complete just beyond the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane soon and pass east
of Bermuda on Monday. While the chances of impacts are decreasing,
interests on Bermuda should continue to monitor forecast updates
since some wind and rainfall impacts are still possible.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are expected to reach the
east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as
well as Atlantic Canada, starting today and continuing through early
this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 27.7N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 28.8N 61.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 30.3N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 33.3N 59.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 35.6N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 36.9N 38.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 41.0N 27.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 211451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
1500 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 61.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 135SE 75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 61.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 60.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.8N 61.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.3N 59.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 50.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 25SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 100SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 36.9N 38.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 41.0N 27.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 61.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

...GABRIELLE POISED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 61.0W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 61.0 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward or
east-northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane later today, and
rapid intensification is possible over the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are expected to reach the
east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as
well as Atlantic Canada, starting today and continuing through
early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210842
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

Gabrielle has become slightly better organized overnight. The large
convective band over the eastern side of the system has persisted,
and within the last few hours deep convection has been bursting over
the low-level center. There have been no microwave passes since the
previous advisory, to determine if the inner core has been able to
close off on the southwestern side. Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB were both T/3.5 or 55 kts. Latest objective AiDT,
DPRINT, and DMINT intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 52 to
58 kt. Using these estimates, the intensity is held at 55 kt for
this advisory, although that could be conservative given recent
convective burst. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
en route to investigate the storm and will provide important details
on the intensity and structure of the system.

The storm is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of
335/8 kt. The system continues to be steered by a subtropical ridge
over the Central Atlantic. Over the next few days, Gabrielle will
begin to recurve to the north and eventually northeast between the
western periphery of the ridge and a trough moving offshore the east
coast of the United States. Track models remain tightly clustered
and keep Gabrielle well east of Bermuda on Monday. As Gabrielle
becomes steered within the west-southwesterly wind flow, the system
will accelerate across the Atlantic. By day 3 of the forecast
period, there is some along track model spread with differences in
the forward speed of the system. The NHC track forecast is near the
previous in the short term, but some minor adjustments to slow down
the previous forecast towards the consensus aids were made between
day 3-5.

The environment surrounding the system is favorable for
strengthening over the next couple of days, with light to moderate
wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and slightly better
mid-level relative humidity values. As Gabrielle looks to be
establishing an inner core, it should begin to strengthen. The NHC
intensity forecast follows these trends although the intensity
guidance has continued to trend not as aggressive due to how long
the system has taken to establish an inner core, and the peak
intensity forecast has been lowered to 85 kt, which remains near the
higher end of the guidance envelope. In about 48 h, westerly shear
will begin to increase and sea surface temperatures will begin to
cool along the forecast track, thus a weakening trend is forecast.
The long-range forecast along track uncertainty makes it difficult
to assess whether Gabrielle will fully complete extratropical
transition by the end of the period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane later today and pass
east of Bermuda on Monday. While the chances of impacts are
decreasing, interests on Bermuda should continue to monitor forecast
updates since some wind and rainfall impacts are still possible.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are expected to reach the
east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as
well as Atlantic Canada, beginning later today and continuing
through early this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 27.2N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 28.3N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 29.9N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 31.5N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 33.1N 59.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 34.5N 56.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 35.4N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 36.9N 41.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 40.0N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210842
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 60.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 60.0 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward or
east-northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Monday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are expected to reach the
east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as
well as Atlantic Canada, beginning later today and continuing
through early this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210841
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 60.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 60.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 59.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.3N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.9N 61.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.5N 61.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.1N 59.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.5N 56.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.4N 52.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 36.9N 41.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 110SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 40.0N 29.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 120SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 60.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210237
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 20 2025

Recent GMI and SSMIS passive microwave images of Gabrielle suggest
the tight inner core noted in earlier aircraft data has collapsed. A
larger mid-level eye structure now wraps over halfway around the
circulation but is open to the southwest. The low-level center of
the storm lies near the sharp western edge of the convective cloud
mass, which suggests Gabrielle is still contending with some shear.
Convective band wraps around the eastern side of the storm, where
recent ASCAT-B data confirm the strongest surface winds are
occurring. The initial intensity is set at 55 kt based on TAFB
Dvorak and UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates. Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the
storm tomorrow morning.

Gabrielle is moving north-northwestward (335/8 kt) along the
southwestern side of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.
Over the next couple of days, Gabrielle is expected to recurve to
the north and northeast between this ridge and a mid-latitude trough
over the eastern United States. The track models remain in good
near-term agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast keeps
Gabrielle well east of Bermuda on Monday. Then, Gabrielle is
forecast to accelerate east-northeastward through the rest of the
week while embedded in zonal westerly flow. There are greater speed
differences in the track models during the latter half of the
forecast period, but the consensus has trended slower once again,
and this is reflected in the updated NHC forecast.

Assuming Gabrielle is able to solidify its inner core soon, some
strengthening is expected over warm waters within a low to moderate
shear environment during the next couple of days. The latest track
guidance is not quite as aggressive as earlier today. The NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one, remaining close to the
HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) near the higher end of the guidance
envelope. By Tuesday, increased westerly shear is forecast to cause
Gabrielle to weaken, especially while it moves over cooler waters
later next week. The long-range forecast track uncertainty makes it
difficult to assess whether Gabrielle will fully complete
extratropical transition by the end of the period. However, it seems
likely that the system will be losing tropical characteristics and
in close proximity to fronts by Friday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday and pass
east of Bermuda on Monday. While the chances of impacts are
decreasing, interests on Bermuda should continue to monitor forecast
updates since some wind and rainfall impacts are still possible.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
through early next week. These swells are expected to reach the
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, along with
the coast of Atlantic Canada, on Sunday and continue through early
next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 26.3N 59.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 30.7N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 32.3N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 33.8N 58.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 35.1N 54.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 36.5N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 39.0N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210236
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 59.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 59.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 59.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 61.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.7N 61.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.3N 60.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.8N 58.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.1N 54.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 36.5N 44.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 39.0N 31.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 140SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 59.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210236
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 20 2025

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...
...FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 59.2W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 59.2 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through Sunday. A turn toward the
north is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward or
east-northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
through early next week. Distant swells from Gabrielle should reach
the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward,
along with Atlantic Canada, on Sunday and continue through early
next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 202033
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Sat Sep 20 2025

At about the time of the last advisory, an small eye-like feature
appeared in Gabrielle's central dense overcast. An NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft then confirmed the presence of a 6 n mi wide eye
with a well-defined inner wind core. After that, a combination of
flight-level and dropsonde data from both NOAA and AF Reserve
aircraft showed maximum winds near 55 kt with a central pressure
near 996 mb. One note is that the aircraft flight-level wind data
suggests an outer wind maximum is forming around the small eye,
which coincides with convective bands seen in NOAA aircraft radar
data.

The aircraft found that the center of Gabrielle was about 30 n mi
east of the previous forecast track, and using the revised position
yields a 12-h motion of 325/9. Other than the center re-location,
there is little change to the track forecast philosophy. During
the next 48 h or so, Gabrielle is expected to recurve to the north
and northeast between the subtropical ridge to the east and a
mid-latitude trough over the southeastern United States and
adjacent parts of the Atlantic. While the track guidance for this
part of the forecast remains tightly clustered, the guidance has
shifted to the east based on the initial position, and it is also
showing a slower forward speed. So, the official forecast is also
nudged to the east and slowed down. With this change, the reliable
guidance models and the official forecast continue to keep
Gabrielle well to the east of Bermuda during recurvature. After
recurvature, Gabrielle should move east-northeastward to eastward
as it becomes embedded in zonal westerly flow. This part of the
track guidance has again shifted south from the previous advisory
and also shows a slower forward speed, with the new official
forecast adjusted accordingly.

Gabrielle is expected to be in a light-to-moderate shear
environment for the next 48 h or so, and steady strengthening is
expected during this time. After being less aggressive on the 06Z
runs, the 12Z runs of the regional hurricane models have trended
stronger. The new intensity forecast keeps a peak intensity of 90
kt, which is above the intensity consensus but below the regional
models. After peak intensity, it again appears that Gabrielle's
extratropical transition will not occur until after the end
of the forecast period. So, the intensity forecast shows steady
weakening due to increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track. The new intensity
forecast again has some minor adjustments from the previous
forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. While the chances of
impacts are decreasing, interests on Bermuda should continue to
monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since some wind and rainfall impacts
are still possible.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are beginning to reach Bermuda
and will build through the weekend. These swells are also expected
to reach the coast of the United States from North Carolina
northward, along with the coast of Atlantic Canada, late this
weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 25.6N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 26.7N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 28.4N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 29.9N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 31.6N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 33.3N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 34.8N 55.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 36.6N 46.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 38.6N 33.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 202032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
2100 UTC SAT SEP 20 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 59.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 135SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 59.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.7N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.4N 61.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N 60.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.3N 58.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.8N 55.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 36.6N 46.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 120SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 38.6N 33.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 150SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 59.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Sat Sep 20 2025

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY...
...EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 59.0W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 59.0 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn toward
the north and northeast Monday and Monday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda
Sunday night or on Monday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane tonight or
on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle are beginning to reach Bermuda
and will build through the weekend. Swells generated by Gabrielle
should reach the east coast of the United States from North
Carolina northward, along with Atlantic Canada, later this weekend
into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 201753
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
200 PM AST Sat Sep 20 2025


...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GABRIELLE IS FARTHER EAST
AND A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
data show that the center of Gabrielle is located about 30 miles
farther east than indicated in the previous advisory. The maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h). The next
full advisory will be issued at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 58.7W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 201446
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 20 2025

Gabrielle has become a little better organized this morning, with
increased curved banding over the eastern semicircle and a 1009Z
SSM/IS overpass suggesting a mid-level eye was forming. However,
this feature appeared to be to the northeast of the low-level
center, suggesting that Gabrielle is tilted vertically due to
southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates have increased a
bit and are now in the 45-55 kt range. Based on this, the initial
intensity is increased to 50 kt. Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently enroute to investigate
Gabrielle.

The initial motion is 320/11 kt. During the next 48-60 h,
Gabrielle is expected to recurve to the north and northeast between
the subtropical ridge to the east and a mid-latitude trough over
the southeastern United States and adjacent parts of the Atlantic.
The track guidance remains tightly clustered during this time, and
the main change since the last advisory is that the guidance is a
little slower in forward speed. Thus, this part of the new forecast
track is similar to, but a little slower than, the previous
forecast. The reliable guidance models and the official forecast
continue to keep Gabrielle well to the east of Bermuda during
recurvature. After 60 h, Gabrielle should move east-northeastward
to eastward as it becomes embedded in zonal westerly flow. This part
of the track guidance has shifted a little south from the previous
advisory and also shows a slower forward speed. The new official
forecast is therefore a little south of and a little slower than the
previous forecast.

Gabrielle is expected to be in a light-to-moderate shear
environment for the next 60-72 h, and steady strengthening is
expected during this time. One change in the intensity guidance
since the last advisory is that the regional hurricane models are
less aggressive in strengthening the storm, and so the forecast
peak intensity of 90 kt is now near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance envelope. After peak intensity, it currently appears that
Gabrielle's extratropical transition will not occur until after
the forecast period. So, the intensity forecast shows steady
weakening due to increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track. The new intensity
forecast has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda
should continue to monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since some wind
and rainfall impacts are still possible.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are beginning to reach Bermuda
and will build through the weekend. These swells are also expected
to reach the coast of the United States from North Carolina
northward, along with the coast of Atlantic Canada, late this
weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 25.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 26.2N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 27.8N 61.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 29.4N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 31.1N 61.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 32.8N 60.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 34.5N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 37.0N 48.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 38.5N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 201445
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
1500 UTC SAT SEP 20 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 59.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 59.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 58.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.2N 60.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.8N 61.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N 62.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.8N 60.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.5N 57.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 37.0N 48.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 110SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 38.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 59.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201445
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 20 2025

...RECON AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE TODAY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 59.0W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 59.0 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the north-northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the north and northeast Monday and Monday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gabrielle
is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate
Gabrielle later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle are beginning to reach Bermuda
and will build through the weekend. Swells generated by Gabrielle
should reach the east coast of the United States from North
Carolina northward, along with Atlantic Canada, later this weekend
into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200837
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Sat Sep 20 2025

Although Gabrielle's low-level center is obscured by high cirrus
clouds, an 0555 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass confirms that it is still
located to the west of the deep convective mass due to continued
moderate westerly shear. The convection itself has been quite
intense, with a high density of lightning co-located with cloud-top
temperatures as cold as -85 to -90 degrees Celsius. The latest
satellite intensity estimates, as well as ASCAT data from yesterday
evening, still support an intensity of 45 kt. The ASCAT data also
showed that there are currently no tropical-storm-force winds on
Gabrielle's western side.

Mid-tropospheric high pressure over the central Atlantic is
steering Gabrielle northwestward, or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The
storm is expected to recurve between the western periphery of the
high and a trough located over the southeastern United States over
the next several days. Mostly because of an adjustment of
Gabrielle's initial position, the new NHC track forecast has been
adjusted a bit west of the previous prediction during the first 3
days of the forecast. That said, all of the reliable track models
continue to keep the core of Gabrielle well east of Bermuda Sunday
night and Monday during the recurvature. By Tuesday, global model
fields indicate that Gabrielle will become embedded in fast zonal
mid-latitude flow, and there has been a significant southward shift
in the track models on days 4 and 5. The NHC track forecast has
also been adjusted southward at those times, close to the HCCA and
Google DeepMind ensemble but not as far south as the GFS and many
of the multi-model consensus aids.

Vertical shear is expected to decrease over the next day or two,
which should allow Gabrielle's circulation to become more
vertically aligned, leading to strengthening. The intensity models
are generally split into two camps. The statistical-dynamical
models (SHIPS and LGEM) and global models (GFS and ECMWF) are more
subdued on the amount of strengthening that Gabrielle might
experience. The regional hurricane models, as well as the HCCA and
Florida State Superensemble, are more aggressive, with the HAFS
models in particular bringing Gabrielle to major hurricane strength
in about 2 days. While not going that high, the NHC intensity
forecast is close to the other models in that camp and continues to
show a possible peak of 90 kt in 60-72 hours. With the southward
shift in the track forecast at days 4 and 5, Gabrielle's
extratropical transition has likely been delayed, and the official
forecast continues to depict a tropical cyclone through the next 5
days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda
should continue to monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since some wind
and rainfall impacts are still possible.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are beginning to reach Bermuda
and will build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 24.3N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 25.4N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 27.0N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 28.6N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 30.3N 62.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 32.1N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 34.0N 59.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 37.0N 50.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 38.7N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200836
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Sat Sep 20 2025

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 58.1W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 58.1 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn toward
the north and northeast Monday and Monday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda
Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gabrielle is expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle are beginning to reach Bermuda
and will build through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200836
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC SAT SEP 20 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 58.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 58.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 57.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.4N 59.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.6N 61.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.3N 62.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 32.1N 61.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 34.0N 59.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N 50.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 110SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.7N 38.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 130SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 58.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200245
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 19 2025

Gabrielle still has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm.
Before sunset, the low-level center was just west of the deep
convection and recent bursts have partially obscured it now. A GPM
microwave pass showed a couple bands curving around the eastern
semicircle of the storm. Satellite Dvorak estimates have remained
steady since the previous advisory and the intensity is held at 45
kt, closest to the TAFB classification of T3.0/45-kt.

The storm is moving northwestward at 10 kt as it is steered by a
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. In about a day,
Gabrielle will turn to the north-northwest and the north while it
moves between the western periphery of the ridge and a mid-latitude
trough over the eastern United States. The storm should turn more
towards the northeast and accelerate in the mid-latitude westerlies
by early next week. The track guidance has a noticeably slower
forward motion this cycle and by the end of the forecast period, is
farther south. Overall, the latest NHC track forecast is slower
than the previous prediction. It is also farther east for the first
48 hours, largely due to the initial position being farther north
than expected. Interest in Bermuda should continue to monitor
Gabrielle's progress since there is a roughly 20 percent chance of
tropical-storm-force winds occurring on Bermuda.

Gabrielle is expected to gradually strengthen as the environmental
conditions become more conducive during the next few days. The
system should reach hurricane strength by Sunday and is forecast to
peak at 90 kt at 72 h. This forecast is closest to the corrected
consensus aid, HCCA. It should be noted that several of the
hurricane regional models still predict that Gabrielle could reach
major hurricane strength by early next week. At the end of the
forecast period, extratropical transition could be underway but
with the southward adjustment to the track forecast, the official
forecast does not explicitly call for it yet.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda
should monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since it is too soon to
specify the magnitude of potential wind and rainfall impacts.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda
soon and build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 23.6N 57.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 26.3N 59.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 28.0N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 30.0N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 32.0N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 34.5N 58.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 38.9N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 42.7N 35.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200245
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 19 2025

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 57.2W
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 57.2 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A gradual turn
towards the north-northwest is expected by Sunday, followed by a
northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gabrielle is expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda
soon and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200244
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 56.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.3N 59.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.0N 60.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.0N 61.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 32.0N 60.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 34.5N 58.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 38.9N 49.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 42.7N 35.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 57.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 192041
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Fri Sep 19 2025

Gabrielle's cloud pattern has changed significantly since the last
advisory. The previously noted shear pattern has changed to a curved
convective band pattern, and the previously exposed low-level center
has become at least partly covered by cirrus clouds spreading
westward from the convection. This change suggests that the storm
is starting to encounter the forecast decrease in vertical shear.
At this time, this change has not led to an increase in the various
satellite intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains 45
kt.

The initial motion is 300/10 kt. Gabrielle is on the southwest side
of the subtropical ridge, and during the next 2-3 days it is
expected to turn northward between the ridge to the east and and a
mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States and the far
western Atlantic. The track guidance remains fairly tightly
clustered during this time, although the consensus models have
shifted a little to the left since the last advisory. This part of
the new forecast track is nudged a little to the left, but still
lies east of the consensus models. After 3 days, Gabrielle is
expected to recurve into the westerlies and accelerate
northeastward. The guidance shows more spread during this time, with
the GFS being to the left/north and faster than most of the
guidance, while the ECMWF is to the right/south and slower. Despite
the spread, the consensus models and the center of the guidance
envelope are have changed little since the last advisory for this
part of the forecast. Thus, the new forecast is similar to, but
slightly slower than, the previous forecast. The reliable track
models still show Gabrielle's center passing at least 130 n mi east
of Bermuda in 60-72 h. However, interests on the island should
continue to monitor Gabrielle's progress since NHC's average track
error at 72 h is about 90 n mi, and hazards can extend well away
from the center. There remains a 20-25 percent chance of
tropical-storm-force winds occurring on Bermuda.

Gabrielle is now forecast to be in a light-to-moderate shear
environment for the next 72 h, which should allow strengthening
that would be tempered mainly by occasional entrainment of dry air.
The new intensity forecast has been tweaked a bit to show a peak
intensity of 90 kt at 72 h. Extratropical transition should be
underway by 120 h, and could be complete by that time if the
cyclone takes a more northward track similar to the GFS. However, a
more southward track similar to the ECMWF would delay transition,
and based on the uncertainty the new intensity forecast keeps the
system as a tropical cyclone at 120 h.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda
should monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since it is too soon to
specify the magnitude of potential wind and rainfall impacts.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda
tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 22.4N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 23.5N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 25.0N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 26.8N 60.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 28.6N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 30.6N 61.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 33.0N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 38.1N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 42.1N 38.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 192040
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 56.6W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 56.6W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 56.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 59.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.8N 60.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.6N 61.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.6N 61.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 33.0N 59.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 38.1N 51.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 42.1N 38.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 220SW 150NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 56.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192040
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Fri Sep 19 2025

...GABRIELLE STARTING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 56.6W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 56.6 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
general northwestward motion is expected through Saturday. A
gradual turn towards the north-northwestward is expected by
Saturday night, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gabrielle is expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda
tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 191455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025

Gabrielle's low-level center remains mostly exposed, now between a
large area of deep convection in the eastern semicircle and growing
cells in the southwestern quadrant. There has been little change in
the satellite estimates and since scatterometer missed the
radius-of-maximum winds this morning, the initial intensity will
remain 45 kt.

The storm is moving northwestward or 305 degrees at 10 kt, with the
subtropical ridge located to its north. A general pattern of
troughing is expected to persist near the southeastern U.S. coast
and far western Atlantic for the next several days, which is
expected cause Gabrielle to recurve around the western periphery of
the ridge over the next 4 days. While the track guidance remains
relatively tight during this period, the along-track spread (speed
differences) are quite large in the medium range. The HCCA and
Google DeepMind (GDM) ensemble mean have bifurcated on the latest
cycle with the corrected consensus to the north and the GDM to the
south. Our forecast has adjusted slightly north, but remains on the
southern side of the overall consensus. The reliable track models
continue to show Gabrielle's center passing at least 140 n mi east
of Bermuda in about 3 days. However, interests on the island should
continue to monitor Gabrielle's progress since NHC's average track
error at 3 days is about 90 n mi, and hazards can extend well away
from the center. There remains a 20-25 percent chance of
tropical-storm-force winds occurring on Bermuda.

The moderate westerly shear currently affecting Gabrielle is
forecast to gradually lessen below 10 kt by 24-36 hours. This should
begin to mitigate the effects of surrounding dry air and allow for
gradual strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has once again
been raised to trend toward the latest IVCN and HCCA consensus aids,
and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. By day 5,
the onset of significantly stronger shear and cooler waters should
induce some weakening. There is significant uncertainty about when
Gabrielle might become extratropical, as the forward speed of the
system may contribute significantly to a higher peak intensity
(longer time over warmer waters).


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda
should monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since it is too soon to
specify the magnitude of potential wind and rainfall impacts.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda
tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 21.9N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 22.9N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 24.3N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 26.0N 59.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 27.8N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 29.8N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 32.0N 60.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 37.5N 54.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 41.3N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Churchill/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191423
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 55.6W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 55.6 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A gradual turn
towards the north-northwestward is expected by Saturday night,
followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda
Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gabrielle is expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda
tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Churchill/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 191412
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 55.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....315NE 180SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 55.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 55.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 22.9N 56.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.3N 58.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 59.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.8N 60.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.8N 61.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 32.0N 60.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 37.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 41.3N 40.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 220SW 150NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 55.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CHURCHILL/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 190846
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025

Gabrielle's low-level center is located near the western edge of an
area of deep convection that has now persisted since late yesterday
afternoon. While the overall convective structure is gradually
improving, the change hasn't been enough to deviate from a current
intensity of 45 kt. UW-CIMSS SATCON, with a value of 42 kt, is
currently the closest satellite intensity estimate.

The storm is maintaining a west-northwestward heading of 300 degrees
at 10 kt, with the subtropical ridge located to its north. A
general pattern of troughing is expected to persist near the
southeastern U.S. coast and far western Atlantic for the next
several days, which should cause Gabrielle to recurve around the
western periphery of the ridge over the next 4 days. There has
been further tightening of the track guidance during this period,
including a convergence of the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble
mean, and no significant adjustments were required for this updated
track forecast. The reliable track models now show Gabrielle's
center passing at least 140 n mi east of Bermuda in about 3 days.
However, interests on the island should continue to monitor
Gabrielle's progress since NHC's average track error at 3 days is
about 90 n mi, and hazards can extend well away from the center.
There is currently a 20-25 percent chance of tropical-storm-force
winds occurring on Bermuda.

The moderate westerly shear currently affecting Gabrielle is
forecast to gradually lessen below 10 kt by 36 hours. This should
begin to mitigate the effects of surrounding dry air and allow for
gradual strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged
upward, particularly during the first 3 days, to trend toward the
latest IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and Gabrielle is expected
to become a hurricane by Sunday. The forecast peak intensity on
day 4 is unchanged. By day 5, the onset of significantly stronger
shear and cooler waters should induce some weakening. At the
moment, there is significant uncertainty about when Gabrielle might
become extratropical and how that would affect the cyclone's
intensity.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda
should monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since it is too soon to
specify the magnitude of potential wind and rainfall impacts.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda
tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 21.9N 54.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 23.9N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 25.4N 59.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 27.1N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 28.9N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 31.0N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 39.8N 46.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 190846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 54.8W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 54.8 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A gradual turn toward the
northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a north-northwestward
motion by Saturday night and northward motion by Sunday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gabrielle is expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda
tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 190845
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 54.8W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....315NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 54.8W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 54.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.9N 57.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.4N 59.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.1N 60.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.9N 61.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.0N 61.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.8N 46.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 220SW 150NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 54.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 190239
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

Gabrielle has managed to re-develop deep convection near its
low-level center this evening. Thunderstorms in the northeast
quadrant formed early in the afternoon and have continued into the
evening, producing cloud top temperatures colder than -80 degrees C.
A scatterometer pass from 0012 UTC measured the eastern portion of
the circulation with wind speeds close to 40 kt. However, these
data did not capture the radius of maximum wind, which is assumed to
have stronger winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 45
kt for this advisory.

Global models suggest environmental conditions will be unfavorable
for the next day or so while Gabrielle contends with
strong-to-moderate vertical wind shear and dry air intrusions. By
this weekend, both of these impediments should subside and allow the
storm to gradually strengthen. Once again, the intensity aids have
risen this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward
and now lies in the middle of the guidance envelope with a peak of
90 kt by day 4.

Gabrielle is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. The storm should
slowly turn toward the northwest over the next few days around the
periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic.
Late this weekend and into early next week, the storm is expected to
turn toward the north and northeast in the flow between the ridge
and a frontal system approaching from the west. There are still
some speed differences among the numerical models, however the
overall track guidance spread is not as significant this cycle. The
latest official track forecast is slightly east of the previous
prediction and lies between the consensus aids to the west and
Google DeepMind to the east. Interests in Bermuda should continue to
monitor Gabrielle over the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 21.2N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 22.0N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 23.2N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 24.5N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 26.1N 59.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 29.9N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 34.6N 58.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 40.1N 48.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 190238
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 53.4W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 105SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 53.4W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 52.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.0N 54.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.2N 56.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 58.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.1N 59.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.9N 61.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 34.6N 58.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 40.1N 48.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 53.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 190238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

...GABRIELLE HOLDING STEADY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 53.4W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 53.4 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple days, followed
by a northwestward turn this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next 24 hours, but
some gradual intensification is forecast shortly thereafter.
Gabrielle could become a hurricane late this weekend into early
next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 182053
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

Gabrielle continues to fight off strong westerly vertical
wind shear and significant dry air entrainment this afternoon.
Some thunderstorms have blossomed on the storm's eastern flank,
which is an improvement from its naked low-level swirl earlier this
morning. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent
scatterometer data of at least 40 kt and little in the way of
change to its structure from earlier this morning.

Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for another
day or so, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current
intensity or weaken slightly during that time. Recent 12Z guidance
indicates vertical wind shear relaxes and an increasingly moist
vertical profile should foster a much improved environment for
strengthening this weekend, with the GFS model trending toward the
more conducive ECMWF solution. As a result, intensity guidance is
notable higher on this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast is raised
from the previous one, but not as high as the model consensus
mostly due to continuity. There are a growing number of hurricane
models that are indicating Gabrielle could approach major hurricane
strength after the weekend.

Gabrielle is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt and should maintain
this track with a bend toward the northwest over the next few days
as the storm is steered primarily by a subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic. A turn toward the north and northeast is
forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when
Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge and a frontal
system approaches from the west. While the guidance envelope has
shrunk on this forecast cycle, there are some significant speed
differences, with the ECMWF/GFS models considerably faster than the
Google Deep Mind ensemble. Although no significant changes to the
forecast were made, confidence remains on the lower side given the
along-track model spread and an unclear intensity forecast beyond
48 hours. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle
over the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 20.8N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 21.5N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 23.9N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 27.1N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 33.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 39.0N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 182051
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 52.7W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 52.7 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple days, followed
by a northwestward turn this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next 24
hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast shortly
thereafter and could become a hurricane late weekend into early
next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 182051
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 52.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......250NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 52.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 52.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.5N 54.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...190NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.9N 58.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.1N 61.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 33.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 39.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 52.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 181443
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

Gabrielle continues to struggle this morning as a pronounced swirl
of low-level clouds is unable to muster up much in the way of deep
convection near its center. Gabrielle's poor structure is due to
ongoing westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of
dry air entrainment that is infiltrating its circulation. The
initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent scatterometer
data of at least 40 kt, but this value remains above the latest
satellite intensity estimates.

Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for a
couple more days, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its
current intensity or weaken during that time. It is even possible
it could decay into a non-convective post-tropical low for a time.
Assuming it survives, most guidance suggests that the storm will
move into more conducive conditions that persist into early next
week, allowing Gabrielle to organize and strengthen as it tracks
north to northeastward. The NHC intensity forecast is near the low
end of the guidance envelope for the first 3 days, but lies closer
to the middle of the guidance at days 4 and 5.

Gabrielle's more erratic track over the past 24-48 hours has now
smoothed out over the past 12-24 hours with a west-northwestward
motion at 13 kt. This west-northwest to northwest motion should
persist over the next few days as the storm is steered primarily by
a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the
north or northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early
next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge
and a frontal system approaches from the west. The NHC track
forecast was adjusted just west of track given the guidance's more
westerly consensus of a weaker system inside the next 48 hours.
Gabrielle's forward motion is a little faster as well, especially
between hours 48-120 when it should accelerate thanks to increased
steering flow on the western side of the Atlantic ridge.

Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in
Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 20.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 21.1N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 22.1N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 24.4N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 25.9N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 27.7N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 31.4N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 36.5N 56.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 181442
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

...GABRIELLE STILL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 51.7W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 51.7 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple days, followed
by a northwestward turn this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast over the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 181441
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 51.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......250NE 180SE 0SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 51.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 51.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.1N 53.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.1N 55.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.4N 59.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.9N 60.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.7N 61.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 31.4N 61.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 36.5N 56.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 51.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 180834
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

Gabrielle continues to struggle and consists of a swirl of low-level
clouds with patches of deep convection over the northeast and
southeast quadrants of the storm. The poor structure is due to
westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of dry air
that is continuously entraining into the circulation. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, but this
value is well above the latest satellite intensity estimates.

The atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for a
couple more days, so it seems likely that Gabrielle will either hold
steady or lose strength during that time. However, the models
suggest that the storm could move into more conducive conditions
late in the weekend and early next week, which should cause
Gabrielle to become more symmetric and strengthen. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope for
the first 3 days, but lies closer to the high end of the guidance at
days 4 and 5.

Gabrielle has been moving erratically due to the storm
reorganizing over the past 12 to 24 hours, but smoothing through
the fixes yields a west-northwestward motion at 13 kt. A continued
west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed
is expected during the next few days as the storm continues to be
primarily steered by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.
A turn toward the north or northeast is forecast to occur late this
weekend and early next week when Gabrielle rounds the western
periphery of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is very similar to
the previous one from 12 to 72 h, but it has been shifted a little
to the right at days 4 and 5 to be in better agreement with the
latest guidance.

Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in
Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 20.0N 50.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 20.8N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 21.8N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 22.8N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 24.0N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 26.8N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 30.2N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 34.4N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 180832
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 50.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 180SE 30SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 50.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 49.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.8N 51.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.8N 53.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.8N 55.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.0N 57.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.8N 60.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 30.2N 61.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 34.4N 58.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 50.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 180832
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

...GABRIELLE STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 50.3W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 50.3 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A
west-northwest or northwest motion is expected during the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast late in the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 180252
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

The overall structure of Gabrielle hasn't changed too much. The
cloud pattern of the cyclone consists of a large comma shape.
GOES-19 CIRA proxy-vis imagery and a recent 17/2342 UTC ASCAT-B
overpass clearly indicate that the surface wind center is at the
bottom of the upper portion of the comma head. The strongest ASCAT
wind vectors are the same magnitudes as the pass from 12 hours
prior, so the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

Gabrielle still has a very large and broad envelope of convection
and winds. It is quite atypical to see a structure like this for a
tropical cyclone in this part of the world. Strong westerly shear
should continue on Thursday, then gradually abate at some point on
Friday. The other factor that is detrimentally impacting Gabrielle
is the very dry air seen on water vapor imagery in the open area of
the comma, to the south and west of the center. Even after the
shear abates, Gabrielle will continue moving through an environment
of dry air through Friday, with moistening along its path over the
weekend. The official intensity forecast has been decreased during
the 24-48 h period, in agreement with most of the reliable intensity
guidance. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope through 48 hours, then near the high end of the
guidance thereafter, and still calls for Gabrielle to be a hurricane
at days 4-5.

The center has jogged westward since the previous advisory, but the
longer term motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/14
kt. A similar motion is expected for the next couple of days,
followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as Gabrielle
moves on the south side of a subtropical ridge. Over the weekend,
the cyclone should round the southwestern periphery of the ridge and
turn northwestward as it catches up to a slow-moving upper-level low
that should be located just west of Gabrielle. A northward motion
is expected in 4-5 days as Gabrielle gets closer to the mid-latitude
westerlies, which should induce a northeastward turn in about 5
days. The new NHC track forecast is shifted significantly to the
left (southwest) of the previous forecast through 72 h but near the
previous track again at days 4-5. The forecast is in fairly good
agreement with the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean through 72 h, then
leans toward the HCCA Corrected Consensus at days 4-5.

Track forecast confidence remains relatively low. This system
should pass well east and north of the Leeward Islands, but
interests in Bermuda should monitor forecasts during the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 19.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 20.3N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 21.3N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 22.2N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 23.3N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 24.5N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 25.8N 60.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 28.9N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 32.5N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 180249
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

...POORLY ORGANIZED GABRIELLE BATTLING STRONG WIND SHEAR AS IT JOGS
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 49.5W
ABOUT 895 MI...1435 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 49.5 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected for the
next few days.

Recent satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain
near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast during the next 48 hours, but some gradual
intensification is forecast over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center, mostly to the north and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 180248
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 180SE 30SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.3N 51.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.3N 52.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.2N 54.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.3N 56.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 58.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.8N 60.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 28.9N 62.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 32.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 49.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 172044
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

The biggest change with Gabrielle today has been that the center
has re-formed farther to the north compared with the previous
advisory, similar to earlier model forecasts. While satellite
imagery continues to indicate an elongated circulation with
multiple embedded swirls, it has become better defined than this
morning, and we have continued to make the center position on the
advisory a mean of those swirls. A second scatterometer pass that
intersected the northern semicircle of the storm after the 15Z
advisory did show a large area of 40-45 kt winds. Therefore, the
initial intensity has been increased to 45 knots, even though the
system does not appear appreciably more organized.

The first part of the track forecast has been shifted to the north
based on the recent center re-formation. Gabrielle is moving
northwestward now, and a west-northwestward to northwestward track
is anticipated for the next few days due to steering from the
subtropical ridge. The fundamental forecast question for both
track and intensity is related to the wind shear Gabrielle will
experience and the structural change. Little intensity change is
shown for the next couple of days while the storm remains in a
high-shear but high SST/instability environment. There actually
appears to be good consensus that the shear will relax after Friday,
but there are significant model differences on how much. This leads
to a considerable amount of track and intensity spread as the
forecast progresses into the weekend. Generally the models that
relax the shear more substantially, to around 10 knots or less, show
more intensification and a track to the right of model consensus.
Since the NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the model average
(similar to the last prediction), we favor a track forecast to the
right of the model blend, more consistent with the HCCA corrected
consensus, Google Deep Mind ensemble, and ECMWF ensemble.

Overall, forecast confidence remains relatively low. Based on the
recent trends, this system should pass well east and north of the
Windward and Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda should
monitor forecasts during the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 19.4N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 20.6N 49.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 21.7N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 22.7N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 24.7N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 26.2N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 32.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 172043
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

...CENTER OF GABRIELLE RE-FORMS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
POSITION...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 48.0W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 48.0 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a northwest
or west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next few
days.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but some gradual
intensification is forecast over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, primarily in the eastern semicircle of the storm.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 172042
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 48.0W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 48.0W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 47.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.6N 49.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.7N 51.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.7N 53.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.7N 57.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.2N 59.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 32.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LAMERS/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 171458
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the large system is
not well-organized, with an elongated circulation
oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast containing a few
embedded swirls. The advisory center is a mean center of those
swirls, with any associated convection well east of the position due
to southwesterly shear. While it wouldn't appear so from
conventional satellite data, a recent scatterometer pass indicates
upwards of 40-kt winds present, generally northeast and southeast of
the center of circulation. Although the system is at best
marginally well defined, there is enough data to support an initial
intensity of 40 kt, and the depression is named Gabrielle.

Little strengthening is anticipated over the next 48 hours as
Gabrielle faces an unfavorable shear environment from an
upper-level trough and a possible center re-formation, and the
forecast intensity remains nearly steady through Friday. By this
weekend, a more conducive environment is anticipated, which should
allow for gradual intensification. Gabrielle is forecast to become
a hurricane by 96 hours. The NHC intensity forecast remains
fairly similar to the previous forecast cycle, but it should be
noted that there remains considerable spread in the solutions and
overall forecast intensity confidence is low.

Gabrielle is well away from land and about midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. The current estimated
motion is north-northwestward, but this is highly uncertain as the
center could be re-forming to the north. The system is forecast to
move northwestward to west-northwestward due to the subtropical
ridge for the next several days. While the forecast has been
adjusted to the north from the previous one, this is almost
exclusively due to the jump in the initial position. This is a
highly uncertain forecast until a better defined center forms.
Based on the recent trends, this system should pass well east and
north of the Windward and Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda
should monitor forecasts during the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 19.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 20.8N 50.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 22.7N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 23.5N 56.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 171457
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

...GABRIELLE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 46.6W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of poorly defined Tropical
Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude
46.6 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the north-northwest near 22
mph (35 km/h). An erratic northwestward to west-northwestward
motion at a reduced forward speed is anticipated across the
tropical and subtropical central Atlantic during the next few days.

Satellite-derived winds indicate that the maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next 48 hours but some gradual
intensification is forecast over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center, primarily in the eastern semicircle of the storm.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 171456
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 46.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 46.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.8N 50.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.8N 52.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.7N 54.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 56.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 46.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER TAYLOR/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 170835
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

Satellite data indicate that Invest 92L over the central tropical
Atlantic has now developed into a tropical depression. ASCAT data
from around 00Z showed that the circulation of the system had
improved, and although it was not well defined at the time of the
pass, the system was only lacking some northerly winds on its west
side. Since deep convection has been persisting and consolidating
near the center, it appears to now meet the convective and
circulation criteria needed to be considered a tropical cyclone.
However, it should be noted that the system is quite large and there
is still considerable north-south elongation in the low-level
structure. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a blend of
the ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The
development of this system breaks a nearly 3-week streak of no
tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin during the peak of the
hurricane season.

The depression is well away from land and roughly midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. The system is
estimated to be moving westward at 11 kt, but this is of low
confidence since the center has only recently formed. A turn to the
northwest, perhaps influenced by a center formation, is expected to
occur soon as the depression moves toward a weakness in the Atlantic
subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level low to its north.
The models show this low weakening in a day or two, which will
likely cause the cyclone to turn back to the west-northwest late
this week. However, the system should reach the western periphery
of the ridge this weekend, resulting in a turn to the northwest or
north. The NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the
consensus aids, giving more weight to the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind
predictions, which are faster and on the right side of the guidance.
Based on the steering pattern, and deterministic and ensemble model
solutions, there is high confidence that this system should pass
well east of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor forecasts of the depression over the next several
days.

Only modest strengthening is expected over the next day or two as
the depression continues to battle moderate shear from the
aforementioned low aloft and intrusions of dry air. However, more
notable strengthening seems likely by the weekend when the system
moves into more conducive environmental conditions. The NHC
intensity forecast shows the system reaching hurricane strength
toward the end of the period, but it should be noted that the spread
in the models at that time is significant and ranges from solutions
showing a weak low to a major hurricane. This prediction is
generally in line with the IVCN aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 13.7N 45.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 15.8N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 17.6N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 19.0N 51.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 19.7N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 20.4N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 21.6N 57.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 24.0N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 26.9N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 170834
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 45.9W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 45.9W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 45.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.8N 47.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.6N 49.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 51.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.7N 54.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.4N 55.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.6N 57.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 24.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 26.9N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 45.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 170834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 45.9W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 45.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion across the tropical and
subtropical central Atlantic is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected, and the system could become a
tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi