Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NARDA-25
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 290233
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2025

COOLER WATERS AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAVE TAKEN A SIGNIFICANT TOLL ON
NARDA. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, LEAVING MAINLY A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 30 KT. GIVEN
THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, REGENERATION
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON NARDA, WHICH HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW.

THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE TURNING BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS IT
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND OPEN INTO A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 20.9N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 29/1200Z 21.4N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 21.6N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 21.9N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1200Z 22.5N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0000Z 23.0N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 290232
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Narda Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...NARDA HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 125.1W
ABOUT 985 MI...1580 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Narda
was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 125.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 6
mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to persist into Monday. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is
forecast to dissipate by Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and southern
California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
or national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 290231
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 125.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 125.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.6N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.9N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 125.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 282037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2025

...NARDA QUICKLY WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 125.4W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A GENERALLY
EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO MID-WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NARDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 282038
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2025

NARDA HAS BECOME PRACTICALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND WHAT
REMAINS IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED. ASCAT-B DATA VALID AT 1708 UTC
REVEALED A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NARDA'S
CENTER, AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE 35-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS, ECMWF AND REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE THAT NARDA IS UNLIKELY TO REDEVELOP DEEP
CONVECTION. GIVEN ITS VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND SSTS BELOW 24 DEG C,
THAT FORECAST APPEARS LIKELY TO VERIFY. NARDA SHOULD THEREFORE
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. THE CYCLONE IS
STILL FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, EXCEPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
INTENSITY BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 20.4N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 21.1N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/1800Z 21.6N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 21.8N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 22.1N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0600Z 22.6N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 282036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
2100 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 125.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 125.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.1N 125.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.6N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.8N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.1N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.6N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 125.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 281436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...NARDA CONTINUES WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS...
...LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 125.5W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1655 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. Narda is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Narda is
forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and southern
California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
or national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 281437
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2025

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NARDA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH
THE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NARDA REMAINS OVER COOLER WATERS
WITHIN A DRIER, STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST INDICATES THAT
NARDA COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR EARLY MONDAY. THE
STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. A SLOW NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO
A SURFACE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK. NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE NHC TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECASTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 19.7N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.4N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/1200Z 21.2N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z 21.6N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 22.0N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0000Z 22.4N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 23.1N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 281436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 125.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 125.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.4N 125.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.2N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.6N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.4N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.1N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 280854
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Narda’s convection has continued to
diminish in coverage. The remaining deep convection is confined
mainly to the southern semicircle, with cloud tops warming to near
–65 C. A 0439 UTC METOP-B ASCAT pass showed peak surface winds of
about 45 kt in the southeastern quadrant. Objective estimates from
UW-CIMSS range from 47 to 57 kt. Based on a blend of these data,
the initial intensity is set at 50 kt.

The cyclone is moving northward at about 360/4 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue through the remainder of the weekend.
As Narda steadily loses convection and becomes increasingly shallow,
it should turn back toward the northwest within the low-level flow
before dissipating around midweek. The forecast track is very
similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the
multi-model consensus aids.

Narda has rapidly weakened over the past 24 hours due to cooler sea
surface temperatures and the influence of a drier, more stable air
mass. Additional steady weakening is forecast, and the system is
expected to become post-tropical by Monday and dissipate by the
middle of next week. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and remains close to the consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 19.1N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 19.9N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 20.9N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 21.7N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z 22.1N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 280852
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...NARDA WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 125.6W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 125.6 West. Narda is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is
expected to persist into Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and Narda is forecast to become a
post-tropical low by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and southern
California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
or national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 280852
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0900 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 125.6W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 270SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 125.6W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 125.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.9N 125.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.9N 125.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.4N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.1N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 125.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 280234
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Narda has weakened this evening as it tracks over progressively
cooler waters and into a drier environment. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were T4.0/65 kt, with
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS in the 54–64 kt range. Given the
weakening trend shown on satellite since these estimates, the
initial intensity is set at 60 kt, and Narda is now a tropical
storm.

The initial motion is north-northwestward at about 335/4 kt. A
gradual turn toward the north is forecast tonight, with this motion
expected to persist through the remainder of the weekend as it
responds to a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Early next week,
Narda should become shallow and increasingly steered by the
low-level flow, leading to a turn back toward the northwest before
dissipation. The forecast track is very close to the previous
advisory and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Continued weakening is expected as Narda moves farther north into
progressively cooler waters and a drier, more stable environment.
The system is forecast to become post-tropical within 36 hours and
dissipate around day 5. The intensity forecast is very similar to
the previous one and is close to the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 18.7N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 19.4N 126.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 20.4N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 30/0000Z 21.6N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 30/1200Z 22.1N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z 22.8N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 24.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 280232
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2025

...NARDA STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 125.9W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND NARDA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NARDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SWELLS
SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 280231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0300 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 125.9W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 330SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 125.9W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 126.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.4N 126.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 125.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.6N 125.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.1N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 125.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 272032
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2025

AFTER HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH FOR MORE THAN A DAY, NARDA HAS NOW
BEGUN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
INNER CORE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW NOTABLY
MORE ASYMMETRIC. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 63 TO 77 KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 70 KT.

A COMBINATION OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, DRIER AIR, AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING.
NARDA IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT AND
DECAY TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

NARDA CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE BREAKS DOWN DUE TO A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TURN NORTHWARD IN A DAY OR
SO, AND CONTINUE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 18.2N 125.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 18.9N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 19.9N 126.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 20.8N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/1800Z 21.4N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 30/0600Z 21.9N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z 22.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 23.8N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 272031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...NARDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 125.5W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 125.5 West. Narda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Narda is
forecast to become a tropical storm tonight and a post-tropical low
in a day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells
should reach southern California tonight. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local or national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 272031
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
2100 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 125.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 300SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 125.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 125.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.9N 125.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.9N 126.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.8N 125.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.4N 125.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.9N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.8N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 271434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...NARDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 124.9W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1655 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 124.9 West. Narda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today, and Narda
is forecast to weaken below hurricane strength tonight or early
Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and portions of the Baja California
peninsula. The swells should reach southern California later today
or tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
or national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 271435
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2025

NARDA IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH WITH THE INNER CORE
REMAINING INTACT AND CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND IT ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDES. HOWEVER, DRY SLOTS ARE INCREASING ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, AN INDICATION THAT WEAKENING
COULD COMMENCE SOON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD AT 80 KT,
NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE HURRICANE HAS JUST CROSSED THE 26 C SST ISOTHERM AND WILL BE
TRACKING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ADDITION, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS AND STRONGER SHEAR. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS SUPPORT STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING, AND NARDA SHOULD FALL
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AND DECAY TO A
POST-TROPICAL LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN LINE WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.

AS EXPECTED, NARDA IS SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE
RIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE BREAKS DOWN DUE TO A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC. NARDA IS FORECAST TURN NORTHWARD IN A DAY OR
SO, AND CONTINUE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 18.0N 124.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 18.5N 125.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 20.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 21.3N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 30/0000Z 21.9N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/1200Z 22.5N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 23.7N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 271433
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
1500 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 124.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 124.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 124.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 125.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 125.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.4N 125.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.3N 125.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.9N 125.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.5N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.7N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 124.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 270844
TCDEP4

Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Narda’s overall cloud pattern has
changed little during the past several hours, although some slight
cloud-top warming has been noted more recently. A well-defined
curved band continues to wrap into the central dense overcast (CDO),
which contains cloud-top temperatures as cold as –75 C. Subjective
Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 4.5/77
kt, while peak objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been holding
just under 80 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held
at 80 kt for this advisory.

Narda is moving west-northwestward at 290/10 kt, and this general
motion is expected to persist this morning. A gradual turn toward
the north, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, is forecast
later today and continue through the weekend. By early next week, as
Narda remains over cooler waters and moves into a drier environment,
it is expected to become increasingly influenced by low-level flow,
which should result in a turn back toward the northwest by day 5.
The forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory and
remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.

Narda is now over SSTs below 26 C, and is forecast to continue
moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more
stable air mass through the weekend. These conditions should induce
a weakening trend beginning later this morning and continuing
through the weekend. Narda is expected to fall below hurricane
strength by late Sunday, then degenerate into a post-tropical
remnant low early next week. The official intensity forecast is very
similar to the previous one and lies near the higher end of the
guidance envelope through much of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 18.2N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 20.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 21.0N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 29/1800Z 21.7N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/0600Z 22.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 23.6N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 25.7N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 270843
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2025

...NARDA HOLDING STEADY BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 124.7W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST. NARDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST LATER
TODAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY, AND NARDA
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB (28.91 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NARDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE SWELLS SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 270842
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 124.7W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 124.7W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.0N 125.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.7N 125.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.2N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 23.6N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.7N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 124.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 270236
TCDEP4

Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Nardas overall structure has improved slightly during the past
several hours. A 2108 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed a
well-defined inner core with a symmetric eye embedded within the
deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity
estimates from SAB and TAFB are both 4.5/77 kt, while objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 6779 kt range. Based on these
data and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held
at 80 kt for this advisory.

Narda is moving west-northwestward at 290/11 kt, which should
persist into early Saturday. Thereafter, the system should gradually
slow down as it turns northwestward, then north to north-northeast
over the weekend as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge in
response to an upper-level low near California and a shortwave
trough digging southeastward over the northeast Pacific. By early
next week, as Narda moves over cooler waters and into a drier
environment, it is expected to become increasingly influenced by
low-level flow, which should result in a turn back toward the
northwest by day 5. The forecast track is very similar to the
previous advisory and remains close to the multi-model consensus
aids.

Narda is forecast to maintain its current strength into the
overnight hours while it remains over 2627 C waters with light to
moderate vertical shear and sufficient mid- to upper-level moisture.
By around 12 h, however, it will begin moving over progressively
cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. These
conditions should induce a weakening trend beginning early Saturday
and continuing through the weekend. Narda is expected to fall below
hurricane strength by late Saturday night or early Sunday, and then
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low early next week. The
official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and
lies near the higher end of the guidance envelope into early
Saturday, then trends toward the middle to upper portion of the
guidance thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 17.3N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 17.8N 124.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 18.5N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 19.4N 126.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 20.5N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 21.2N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/0000Z 21.6N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 24.5N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 270233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...NARDA HOLDING STEADY WHILE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 123.6W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 123.6 West. Narda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue into early Saturday. A gradual turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast over
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Narda is expected to maintain its strength into early
Saturday, followed by steady weakening over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and portions of the Baja California
peninsula. The swells should reach southern California over the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local or
national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 270232
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0300 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 124.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 125.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 126.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 126.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.2N 125.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.6N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 262040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...NARDA HOLDING STEADY WELL OUT TO SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 122.7W
ABOUT 920 MI...1485 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 122.7 West. Narda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A gradual turn to the north
with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the weekend into
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Narda is expected to maintain its strength through today,
but weakening is expected over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and portions of the Baja California
peninsula. The swells should reach southern California over the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local or
national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 262040
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2025

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH NARDA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN IN
SATELLITE IMAGES, BUT THERE IS AN ASYMMETRY TO THE CONVECTION, WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION COLDER THAN -70C OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, WITH A SOMEWHAT SMALLER AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH -30 TO -50C CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE INFILTRATING INTO THE CORE VIA THE WEAKER NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE LATEST CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS
T-4.5/77 KT AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE
HURRICANE FORCE ASCAT-B VECTORS NOTED IN A RECENT 1750 UTC PASS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT.

NARDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NARDA WILL CAUSE
THE HURRICANE TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH PULLS IT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS
FORECAST LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE LATEST HCCA CORRECTED
CONSENSUS AND GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

THE HURRICANE IS OVER 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BUT IS
FORECAST TO REACH COOLER WATER AND CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT
12 HOURS. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS WEEKEND AND DECAY TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 17.1N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.5N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.1N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 18.9N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 19.9N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 20.9N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 22.1N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 23.0N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 262039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
2100 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 122.7W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 122.7W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 124.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N 125.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.9N 126.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.9N 126.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.9N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.1N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.0N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 122.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 261435
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...NARDA HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WELL OUT TO SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 121.9W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 121.9 West. Narda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for about another day. A significant slow
down and turn to the north and northeast is forecast this weekend
and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Narda is expected to maintain its strength today, but
weakening is expected over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and portions of Baja
California Sur. These swells should reach southern California over
the weekend. Swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local or
national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 261436
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2025

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH NARDA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN IN
SATELLITE IMAGES, BUT THERE ARE SOME DRY SLOTS BECOMING APPARENT ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
GENERALLY HELD STEADY, AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 80 KT
USING THAT DATA.

NARDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KT OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC
STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON THE SAME GENERAL PATH FOR ABOUT ANOTHER
DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, A SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN AND GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
DUE TO A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO ITS NORTH. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH A LITTLE LONGER,
BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY WHEN NARDA IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE 26 C SST ISOTHERM. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS
WEEKEND AND DECAY TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THIS FORECAST IS A TOUCH LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 121.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.9N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 18.6N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.6N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 20.7N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 21.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/1200Z 21.9N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 22.8N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 261435
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
1500 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.9W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.9W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.9N 125.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 126.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.6N 127.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.7N 127.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 126.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.9N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.8N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 260836
TCDEP4

Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Narda has changed little in organization overnight. A 0213 UTC GMI
microwave pass and a coincident SAR RCM-3 NRCS pass revealed a
symmetric eye about 15 n mi wide embedded within the deep
convection, with intermittent bursts producing cloud tops to near
-90 C near and south of the low-level circulation center. A 0520 UTC
METOP-B ASCAT pass depicted a wind field structure similar to that
shown in recent passes over the past 24 h. The latest subjective
Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are both 4.5/77
kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 58–72 kt
range. Based on these data and the satellite presentation, the
initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is toward the west at 275/13 kt, steered by a
subtropical ridge to its north. This motion is expected to continue
through early Saturday. After that time, Narda should begin to slow
down as it turns west-northwestward, then northwestward, and
eventually north-northeastward through the weekend as a weakness
develops in the ridge in response to an upper-level low over
California. The forecast track is very similar to the previous NHC
advisory and lies close to the multi-model consensus aids.

Some slight strengthening can't be ruled out through the day today
while the moderate shear potentially eases and the system remains
over warm sea surface temperatures and within a moist mid- to
upper-level environment. Over the weekend, Narda will be moving over
cooler waters and into an increasingly drier mid-level environment,
which should induce a weakening trend. The system is forecast to
fall below hurricane strength by early Sunday and become a
post-tropical remnant low by day 4. The official intensity forecast
is close to the previous one and remains near the higher end of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.4N 120.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.8N 122.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.3N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 17.9N 126.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 18.8N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 20.0N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 20.9N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 21.8N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 22.9N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 260834
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...NARDA HOLDING STEADY WITH SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 120.7W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 120.7 West. Narda is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue into tonight. A northwestward motion is
forecast to begin over the weekend, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast to northeast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and Narda could
briefly regain Category 2 hurricane strength by tonight. Thereafter,
steady weakening is expected.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are spreading to
portions of Baja California Sur. These swells should reach southern
California over the weekend. Swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local or national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 260833
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0900 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 120.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 120.7W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 120.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.8N 122.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.3N 124.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.9N 126.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.8N 127.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.0N 127.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.9N 127.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.8N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.9N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 260235
TCDEP4

Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Narda is holding steady this evening despite moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear of about 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery shows a
well-defined central dense overcast (CDO) with cloud tops to near
-90 C and a convective band wrapping into the center from the south.
The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates are 5.0/90
kt from SAB and 4.5/77 kt from TAFB, while objective estimates from
UW-CIMSS range between 65 and 75 kt. Based on a blend of these data
and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 80
kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is toward the west near 280/14 kt, steered by a
subtropical ridge to its north. This forward speed is expected to
hold steady through early Saturday. After that time, Narda should
begin to slow down as it turns west-northwestward, then
northwestward, and eventually north-northeastward through the
weekend as a weakness develops in the ridge in response to an
upper-level low over California. Beyond 48 h, the forecast track has
been nudged slightly to the left of the previous advisory and lies
close to the multi-model consensus aids.

Some slight strengthening is still possible during the next 1224 h
while the shear remains moderate and the system stays over warm sea
surface temperatures in a moist mid- to upper-level environment. By
3648 h, Narda will be moving over cooler waters and into an
increasingly drier mid-level environment with strengthening
southwesterly shear, which should induce a weakening trend. The
system is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by early Sunday
and become a post-tropical remnant low by day 5. The official
intensity forecast is close to the previous one and remains near the
higher end of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 16.4N 119.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.8N 121.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 125.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 18.5N 126.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 19.6N 127.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 20.6N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 21.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 01/0000Z 23.1N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 260234
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2025

...NARDA HOLDING STEADY WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 119.4W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST. NARDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NARDA COULD REGAIN
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB (28.94 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NARDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND ARE SPREADING TO
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE SWELLS SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 260233
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0300 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 119.4W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 119.4W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.8N 121.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 125.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 126.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.6N 127.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.9N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 10NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.1N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 119.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 252034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025

...NARDA HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...SOME RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 118.0W
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 118.0 West. Narda is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A
northwestward motion is forecast to commence over the weekend,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast to northeast early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast and Narda could once
again become a category 2 hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are spreading to
portions of Baja California Sur. These swells should reach
southern California over the weekend. Swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local or national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 252035
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2025

A FORTUITOUS 1329 UTC SAR RCM-1 NRCS IMAGE REVEALED A 15 NM
SYMMETRIC EYE BENEATH A SMALL CDO AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED
BAND LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THIS
AFTERNOON'S METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT THE SUSTAINED
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT
AND IS BASED ON THE VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

THERE'S STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NARDA TO STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS,
AND FAVORABLE UPPER-WIND CONDITIONS. SUBSEQUENTLY, NARDA
COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, NARDA IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER SSTS WHILE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE/DRIER THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ACCORDINGLY, WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
AFTER DAY 1 AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN AND
DECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND SPECIFIES NARDA
BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 4 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE GENERALLY WESTWARD,
OR 280/14 KT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, CAUSING NARDA TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TEMPORARILY. BY THE 72-HOUR PERIOD, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TURN IN
RESPONSE TO AN MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST
COAST FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
LIES BETWEEN THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID AND THE GDM FNV3
ENSEMBLE MODEL.

NARDA'S WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1631 UTC METOP-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.2N 118.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.4N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.9N 122.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 124.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 19.1N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.1N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/1800Z 23.6N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 252034
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
2100 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 118.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 118.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.9N 122.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.4N 124.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 126.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 127.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.3N 127.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 118.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 251439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025

...NARDA COULD RESTRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 116.6W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 116.6 West. Narda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A
northwestward motion is forecast to commence over the weekend,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast and Narda could once
again become a category 2 hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are expected to spread
to portions of Baja California Sur beginning later today, then reach
southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local or national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 251440
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2025

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSR2 MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATE THAT NARDA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER
FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND A SMALL -81C CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO). THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77
AND 90 KT, RESPECTIVELY, AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING JUST UNDER 80 KT. AS A COMPROMISE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NARDA SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM OCEANIC SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHILE
THE PERSISTENT, MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DIMINISHES. THEREFORE,
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NARDA COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. AFTERWARD, NARDA IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS WHILE MOVING INTO MORE
STABLE/DRIER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ACCORDINGLY,
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN AND DECAY-SHIPS
STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

NARDA IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR
285/13 KT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 36
HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARD, A CUT-OFF MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW SITUATED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, FORCING NARDA TO SLOW IN
FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE CYCLONE SHOULD COMMENCE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN
RESPONSE TO A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST
COAST OFFSHORE WATERS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE
HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID AND THE GDM FNV3 ENSEMBLE MODEL.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 16.1N 116.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 121.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.0N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 18.9N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 19.9N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.0N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 23.3N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 251439
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
1500 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 116.6W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 100SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 116.6W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 115.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.3N 118.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.8N 121.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 126.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.9N 127.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 126.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 250844
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 AM MST Thu Sep 25 2025

...NARDA HOLDING STEADY WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 114.8W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 114.8 West. Narda is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest on Friday. A northwestward motion is
forecast to begin this weekend, with a turn toward the
north-northeast expected by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the next day or
so, followed by a brief period of re-strengthening on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Surf: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are expected to spread
to portions of Baja California Sur beginning later today, then reach
southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local or national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 250845
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 AM MST THU SEP 25 2025

NARDA IS HOLDING STEADY THIS MORNING DESPITE PERSISTENT 20 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR A 90
C, ALONG WITH A CURVED BAND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH T4.5/77 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE BETWEEN 61 AND 72 KT. GIVEN THE
IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THESE
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 280/13 KT, AND THIS
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 48 H (FRIDAY
NIGHT). AFTER THAT TIME, NARDA SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT TURNS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTHWESTWARD, AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS NORTHWARD TURN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A LATER
TURN NEAR 72 H (SATURDAY NIGHT), WHILE THE CONSENSUS AIDS INDICATE
AN EARLIER TURN, AROUND 60 H (DURING THE DAY SATURDAY). A LATER TURN
WOULD KEEP NARDA OVER WARMER WATERS LONGER AND ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH, WHEREAS AN EARLIER TURN WOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER COOLER
WATERS SOONER AND RESULT IN QUICKER WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 60 H,
REFLECTING A BLEND OF THE PRIOR FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H WHILE THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS. BETWEEN 24 AND 48 H (TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT), THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO EASE TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS
WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITH PLENTY OF MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
RE-STRENGTHENING. THIS FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THAT BRIEF WINDOW (24A 36
H).
BY AROUND 60 H (SATURDAY), SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 26 C, AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST
THEREAFTER. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY
5 (MONDAY NIGHT). THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER PORTION OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 15.6N 114.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.8N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.3N 119.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 17.5N 124.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 18.2N 125.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 19.2N 125.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 21.2N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 23.0N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 250838
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0900 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.8W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 110SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....225NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.8W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.8N 116.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.3N 119.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 125.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 125.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.2N 125.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.0N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 250251
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 PM MST WED SEP 24 2025

NARDA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DUE TO PERSISTENT 2025 KT NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPANDING BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD TOPS TO 90 C
REDEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER AND A CURVED BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE LOWER, RANGING BETWEEN T4.0/65 KT AND T4.5/77 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 5768 KT
RANGE. IN LIGHT OF THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE PRESENTATION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY, TO
80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTIONS IS TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 270/9 KT, STEERED BY
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO ITS NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH ABOUT
48 H. BETWEEN 48 AND 60 H, NARDA SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM 60 TO 72 H. BEYOND 72 H, A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST AS A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, NARDA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ALIGNING CLOSELY
WITH MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.

ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
VERTICAL SHEAR PERSISTS. BY FRIDAY, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO EASE TO
MORE MODERATE LEVELS WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITH A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RE-STRENGTHENING. THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN 60 AND 72 H MAY ALSO KEEP THE SYSTEM
OVER WARMER WATERS A LITTLE LONGER, POTENTIALLY DELAYING WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, BY 7296 H, NARDA IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS
AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5 OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER PORTION OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.1N 113.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 15.7N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 16.3N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 16.9N 122.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.4N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 21.8N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 250250
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025

...NARDA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY DUE TO SHEAR BUT FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN
ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 113.2W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 113.2 West. Narda is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion is expected
to continue during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest on Friday. A northwestward and then
north-northeastward motion is forecast this weekend and into early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by some re-strengthening by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Surf: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are expected to spread
to portions of Baja California Sur late this week through the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local or
national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 250249
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0300 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 113.2W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 113.2W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.3N 120.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.9N 122.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.4N 124.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 124.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 242031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 PM MST Wed Sep 24 2025

...NARDA A LITTLE WEAKER BUT FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 112.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 112.3 West. Narda is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue during the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
24 hours, followed by some restrengthening Thursday night and
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Surf: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are expected to spread
to portions of Baja California Sur late this week through the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local or
national meteorological office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 242032
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM MST WED SEP 24 2025

NARDA HAS BEEN FEELING THE IMPACT OF 20-25 KT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH RECENT GPMI AND ASCAT
FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL WELL UNDERNEATH THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST, THE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN
-70C HAS SHRUNK SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY
MORE ASYMMETRIC. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
A CONSENSUS T-5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER, THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 6-12 HOURS, AND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 65-80 KT RANGE.
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BOTH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO 85
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT NARDA IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER TOWARD
THE WEST THAN EARLIER, WITH THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATED AT 265/9
KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 H,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE IS
STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND
INDUCE A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN BY SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS, MAINLY DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST. AFTER THAT TIME, THE
LATEST FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE LATEST TVCE CONSENSUS THROUGH 60
H, AND THEN LIES IN BETWEEN THE TVCE AND HCCA FROM DAYS 3-5.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24 H, THEN DECREASE TO
MODERATE MAGNITUDES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER
WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE
NHC FORECAST WILL THEREFORE CALL FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 H, FOLLOWED BY SOME RESTRENGTHENING ON FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY, NARDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS AND CROSS THE
26C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM WHILE REACHING A SOMEWHAT DRIER
ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS NARDA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. OVERALL,
THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF TRACK MODEL
SPREAD BEYOND DAY 3. THESE TRACK DIFFERENCES WILL DETERMINE
WHAT WATER TEMPERATURES NARDA ENCOUNTERS IN 3-5 DAYS, WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST (HOW QUICKLY NARDA WEAKENS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 15.1N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 15.3N 114.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 15.6N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 16.0N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 16.6N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 17.3N 123.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 20.1N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 21.9N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 242031
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
2100 UTC WED SEP 24 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.3W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.3W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.6N 116.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.6N 121.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.3N 123.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.1N 124.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 123.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 112.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 111.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 111.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.1N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.4N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.8N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.2N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.7N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.7N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.8N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 111.9W.
24SEP25. HURRICANE 14E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1105 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 241450
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 AM MST Wed Sep 24 2025

...NARDA HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 111.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 111.7 West. Narda is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is expected through tonight, followed
by some restrengthening Thursday night and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Surf: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are expected to spread
to portions of Baja California Sur late this week through the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local or
national meteorological office.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 241451
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM MST WED SEP 24 2025

THE RECENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF NARDA IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CDO
CONTAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C, WITH A CURVED BAND ALSO
NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE CDO. SHIPS GUIDANCE AND UW-CIMSS ARE
CURRENTLY ANALYZING 20-25 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THIS
SHEAR HAS PREVENTED ANY STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IN
FACT, THE STRUCTURE APPEARS SOMEWHAT LESS IMPRESSIVE ON A RECENT
24/1121 UTC F18 SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS. GIVEN THAT THE LATEST
TAFB AND SAB FIXES ARE BOTH T5.0/90 KT, THE 90-KT INTENSITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY WILL BE HELD FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NARDA'S MOTION HASN'T CHANGED, STILL ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR
265 DEGREES AT 11 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 36 H, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS LIKELY TO SINK SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ACT TO
ERODE THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO TURN RATHER SHARPLY
TOWARD THE NORTH BY SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT LIES A BIT TO THE LEFT, OR WEST,
OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE TVCE AND GFEX DURING THAT PERIOD, WHICH LIE IN
BETWEEN THE EASTERN HCCA SOLUTION AND THE WESTERN GOOGLE DEEP MIND
SOLUTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN DECREASE TO MODERATE
MAGNITUDES BY THURSDAY WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
SOME RESTRENGTHENING BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. NARDA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS AND CROSS THE 26C SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM BY SATURDAY WHILE REACHING A SOMEWHAT DRIER
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE SAME TIME. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS RAPID
WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD
BEYOND DAY 3 AS TO HOW QUICKLY NARDA GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE
3-5 DAY PERIOD. THESE TRACK DIFFERENCES COULD ALSO AFFECT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST (HOW QUICKLY NARDA WEAKENS DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 15.1N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.1N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 15.8N 118.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 17.0N 122.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 19.7N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.8N 123.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 241450
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
1500 UTC WED SEP 24 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE 105SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.1N 113.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 19.7N 124.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.8N 123.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 109.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 109.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.1N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.2N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.5N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.9N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.6N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.6N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.4N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.8N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 110.7W.
24SEP25. HURRICANE 14E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1121 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 240840
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 AM MST WED SEP 24 2025

...NARDA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE WHILE REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 110.5W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. NARDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB (28.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 240841
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 AM MST WED SEP 24 2025

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NARDA HAS BEEN MOSTLY OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -85C, FOLLOWING
A BRIEF EYE FEATURE THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE. SINCE THEN, THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UW-CIMSS NOW ANALYZES 22
KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING OUTFLOW RESTRICTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 5.0/90 KT,
WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED FROM 84 TO 101 KT.
TAKING A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 90 KT.

NARDA IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265
DEGREES, AT 11 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY
A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3 AS A MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ERODES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL LOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT
BEYOND 48 HOURS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH TRENDS IN THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

NARDA WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS AND OVER VERY
WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION, EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DISRUPT THE CYCLONE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. NARDA SHOULD
EMERGE FROM THE HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ON THURSDAY WHILE STILL
OVER WARM WATERS AND SURROUNDED BY MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION, WITH NARDA FORECAST TO
PEAK AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AROUND DAY 3. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE RATHER ABRUPTLY BEYOND DAY 3, WITH NARDA
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM PRIOR TO DAY 4 WHILE ALSO MOVING INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT, RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5, WITH NARDA EXPECTED TO LOSE
DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW BY DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION
AND MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND FSSE INTENSITY
AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.1N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 15.9N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 16.6N 121.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 17.6N 123.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 19.4N 124.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 21.8N 123.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 240839
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0900 UTC WED SEP 24 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE 105SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 109.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.9N 119.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.6N 121.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 124.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.8N 123.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.2N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.2N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.4N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.8N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.3N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.1N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.0N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.5N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 109.5W.
24SEP25. HURRICANE 14E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1138 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 240252
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 PM MST TUE SEP 23 2025

NARDA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH
AN EYE, ALBEIT CLOUD-FILLED AND COLD, PERIODICALLY EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS, WHICH INDICATES 19
KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
WERE 4.5/77 KT AND 5.0/90 KT, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED FROM 80 TO 93 KT. TAKING A BLEND OF
THESE DATA, AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION,
SUPPORTS RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NARDA IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265
DEGREES, AT 11 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY
A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY 3 AS A MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ERODES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL LOW
TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NARDA WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS AND OVER VERY
WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHEAR WILL HOLD AT
MODERATE LEVELS TONIGHT, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE
EASTERLY SHEAR IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISRUPT THE CYCLONE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. NARDA SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR WHILE REMAINING OVER WARM WATERS AND
SURROUNDED BY MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR ON THURSDAY. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION, WITH NARDA FORECAST
TO PEAK AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AROUND DAY 3. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH NARDA CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AROUND DAY 4. THE CYCLONE WILL
ALSO BE MOVING INTO A MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS AND A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING BY DAY 4 AND
RAPID WEAKENING BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST
CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE HCCA INTENSITY AID.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 15.3N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.2N 111.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.2N 113.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 15.8N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 16.3N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 17.1N 121.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 19.0N 123.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 240251
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
800 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025

...NARDA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 109.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 109.4 West. Narda is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by some
weakening on Wednesday. Little change in strength is then forecast
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 240251
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0300 UTC WED SEP 24 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 109.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 109.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.2N 111.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.2N 113.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 118.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.3N 120.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 121.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 123.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 15.4N 107.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 107.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.2N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.1N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.2N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.5N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.1N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.8N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.5N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.4N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 108.5W.
23SEP25. HURRICANE 14E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1155 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 232038
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Narda Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 PM MST Tue Sep 23 2025

...NARDA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 108.4W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Narda was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 108.4 West. Narda is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through tonight, but
little change in strength is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 232039
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM MST TUE SEP 23 2025

AFTER STEADILY STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO, NARDA'S
INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR NOW. OVERALL, THE CLOUD
PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND IT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE WITH OUTER RAINBANDS SURROUNDING IT. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GENERALLY HELD STEADY TODAY AND SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 75 KT. AN ASCAT-C PASS FROM A
FEW HOURS AGO CONFIRMED THAT NARDA IS A SMALL HURRICANE WITH ITS
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ESTIMATED TO ONLY EXTEND UP TO 80 N MI
FROM THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN LOSING LATITUDE TODAY, AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 260/11 KT. THIS SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IS
CAUSED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO NARDA'S
NORTH-NORTHWEST, AND IT SHOULD KEEP NARDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD PATH
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT OFF LOW MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, BASED MOSTLY ON
THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

NARDA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST MODELS SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THAT COULD
CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO LEVEL OFF. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALLOWING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NARDA
TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND INTO A
STABLE AIR MASS THIS WEEKEND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT STILL LIES
NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.4N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 16.1N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 16.8N 121.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 18.5N 123.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 20.4N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 232038
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
2100 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 108.4W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 108.4W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.1N 119.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.8N 121.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.5N 123.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.4N 123.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 108.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 106.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 106.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.6N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.5N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.7N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.1N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.8N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.4N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.3N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 107.5W.
23SEP25. HURRICANE 14E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1158 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 231438
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM MST TUE SEP 23 2025

NARDA HAS STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS AND
THE INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 68 TO 77 KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA
AND THE IMPROVING CLOUD PATTERN, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 11 KT STEERED BY A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO KEEP NARDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT
TIME, THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED
WITH A CUT OFF LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE
HCCA AID.

NARDA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE IT REMAINS IN GENERALLY CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. BY LATE TOMORROW, THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
EASTERLY SHEAR AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY OF NARDA TO
LEVEL OFF LATER IN THE WEEK. A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN THIS
WEEKEND WHEN NARDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AT THE TOP END OF
THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT FALLS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.8N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.6N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.5N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 15.7N 115.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 16.1N 118.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 16.8N 120.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 18.4N 123.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 20.3N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 231437
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
1500 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.6N 108.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.5N 113.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.7N 115.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 118.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.8N 120.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 18.4N 123.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 20.3N 123.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 231437
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM MST TUE SEP 23 2025

...NARDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 107.3W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NARDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. NARDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB (28.97 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 007 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 105.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 105.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.5N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.3N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.2N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.3N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.6N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.1N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.4N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 106.3W.
23SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1196
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 230850
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 AM MST TUE SEP 23 2025

NARDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS EVENING, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS, COLDER THAN -80C, OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 0248 UTC GPM MICROWAVE PASS AND A 0350 UTC
METOP-C ASCAT PASS WERE HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE CENTER LOCATION,
DETERMINING THE MOTION, AND ASSESSING THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0/65 KT AND
3.5/55 KT, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
RANGED FROM 54 TO 60 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA, ALONG WITH THE
IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION, SUPPORTS RAISING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NARDA IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265
DEGREES, AT 11 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
DAYS 4 AND 5 AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ERODES THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SOUTH-OF-DUE-WEST MOTION, AND THEN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PRIOR FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HCCA, TVCE, AND
FSSE CONSENSUS AIDS, AS WELL AS THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND/NOAA EAGLE AI
GUIDANCE.

NARDA WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS, OVER VERY WARM
WATERS, AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY
STRENGTHENING. THE LATEST GFS- AND ECMWF-BASED SHIPS GUIDANCE
INDICATES ABOUT A 30 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A 25-KT INCREASE
WITHIN 24 HOURS, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS, WITH
NARDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST BETWEEN 36 AND 60 HOURS AS EASTERLY SHEAR
INCREASES TO AROUND 20A 25 KT, WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE CYCLONE ENOUGH
TO PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. BEYOND 60 HOURS, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE, WHICH
MAY ALLOW NARDA TO APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BY DAY 5.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE HCCA AID.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.7N 106.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.2N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.3N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 15.6N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 16.1N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 19.4N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 230848
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
200 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025

...NARDA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 106.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 106.1 West. Narda is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast today and tonight, with
Narda expected to become a hurricane soon. Little change in
strength is then forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 230848
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0900 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.1W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.1W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 114.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.6N 116.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.1N 119.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 106.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 104.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 104.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.9N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.8N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.7N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.6N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.7N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.1N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.1N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.7N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 105.3W.
23SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1219
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 993 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 230242
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
900 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025

...NARDA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AND HEADING WESTWARD AWAY FROM
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 105.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 105.1 West. Narda is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Narda is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or
early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Narda will lead to rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal sections of
southern Mexico into Tuesday. This brings a risk of flash flooding,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 230243
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
900 PM CST MON SEP 22 2025

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NARDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH DEEP CONVECTION FEATURING CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C BURSTING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A RECENT 0034
UTC WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, SHOWING
NARDA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 3.5/55 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED FROM 44 TO 60 KT. A BLEND
OF THESE DATA, ALONG WITH THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE,
SUPPORTS RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NARDA IS MOVING DUE WEST, OR 270 DEGREES, AT 11 KT. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS
STEERED BY A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD, A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE,
CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND DAY
5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WESTWARD MOTION THAT HAS NOW BEGUN, BUT IT REMAINS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST FROM DAY 3 ONWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HCCA, TVCE, AND FSSE CONSENSUS AIDS, AS WELL
AS THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND/NOAA EAGLE AI GUIDANCE.

NARDA WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS, OVER VERY WARM
WATERS, AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY
STRENGTHENING. THE LATEST GFS- AND ECMWF-BASED SHIPS GUIDANCE
INDICATES ABOUT A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A 25-KT INCREASE WITHIN
24 HOURS, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. NARDA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AND
COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, NARDA WILL MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY BELOW 50 PERCENT AND OVER WATERS
COOLER THAN 26C, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING BY
DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE SHIPS AND
HCCA AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 15.9N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.9N 106.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.8N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.7N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.6N 113.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 15.7N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 118.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 17.1N 122.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 18.7N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 230241
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0300 UTC TUE SEP 23 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.8N 109.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.7N 111.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.6N 113.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.7N 116.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 118.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 122.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N 125.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 105.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 103.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 103.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.3N 105.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.3N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.3N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.2N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.1N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.2N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.0N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.5N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 104.1W.
22SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1246
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 222034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
300 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025

...NARDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 103.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 103.9 West. Narda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected tonight, with this general motion
forecast to persist through the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, and Narda is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Narda will lead to storm total rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal
sections of southern Mexico through tonight. This brings a risk of
flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Narda, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 222035
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
300 PM CST MON SEP 22 2025

NARDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GAIN STRENGTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED,
AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF AN INNER CORE FORMING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 50 KT, BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM ABOUT 40 TO 55 KT. SOME OF THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THESE BANDS COULD CONTINUE TO GRAZE THE
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION, AWAY FROM MEXICO, IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE STORM
IS PRIMARILY STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
ITS NORTH. BY THE WEEKEND, A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
PREDICTED WHEN THE SYSTEM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND LEANS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE LONG
RANGE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND GOOGLE DEEP MIND MODELS, WHICH HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL THIS YEAR IN THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN.

NARDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN GENERALLY CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND A MOIST AIR MASS WHILE MOVING OVER
WARM SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW
AND COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
COOL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK, AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL
DECAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH HCCA AND DECAY-SHIPS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 16.2N 103.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 16.3N 107.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.3N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 16.1N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 16.2N 117.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 17.0N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 222033
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
2100 UTC MON SEP 22 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.3N 107.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.3N 110.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.1N 115.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.2N 117.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.0N 122.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 102.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 102.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.1N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.3N 106.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.2N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.1N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.0N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.0N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.5N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.7N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 103.1W.22SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 14E
(NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1304 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z,
231000Z AND 231600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 221432
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
900 AM CST MON SEP 22 2025

NARDA IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THE STORM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO
55 KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO
45 KT. SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF MEXICO, AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT. A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, AWAY FROM MEXICO, IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE STORM IS PRIMARILY STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH. BY THE WEEKEND, A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, BUT
THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED,
ESPECIALLY FROM DAYS 3 TO 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE GOOGLE DEEP
MIND MODEL.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WHILE IT MOVES WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS OVER WARM SSTS.
NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK, AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL DECAY.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE,
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AID.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 15.7N 102.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 16.1N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 16.3N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.2N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 16.0N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 16.5N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 221431
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
900 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025

...NARDA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 102.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 102.9 West. Narda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later today, with this general motion
forecast to persist through the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, and Narda is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Narda will lead to storm total rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal
sections of southern Mexico through tonight. This brings a risk of
flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Narda, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 221431
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.9W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.9W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.1N 104.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 106.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.2N 109.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 116.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 102.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 101.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 101.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.0N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.3N 105.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.2N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.2N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.2N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.2N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.6N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.8N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 101.7W. 22SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 14E
(NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1368 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND
231000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 220854
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
300 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025

The satellite presentation of Narda has shown some improvement since
the previous advisory, with a well-defined curved band developing
north of the center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
were 3.0/45 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, while objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 37 to 43 kt. A blend of these
data, along with the improved satellite appearance, supports raising
the initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory.

Narda is moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 10 kt. A
turn toward the west is expected later today as a mid-level ridge
builds over northern Mexico. This westward motion is then forecast
to continue for the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a
strengthening ridge to its north and northwest. By late in the
period, a mid-level low over southern California is expected to
erode the eastern portion of the ridge, causing the cyclone to slow
down and turn toward the northwest around day 5. The official
forecast track has been adjusted slightly south of the previous one
to better align with the latest consensus aids, and lies between the
consensus guidance and the prior forecast.

Narda will remain embedded within a moist air mass, over very warm
waters, and in an environment of light to moderate
east-northeasterly shear during the next couple of days. These
factors should support steady strengthening, and Narda is forecast
to become a hurricane Tuesday. By around 60 hours, easterly shear
is expected to increase to 20–25 kt, which should slow the rate of
intensification. By late in the forecast period, although the shear
is forecast to relax, cooler sea surface temperatures and mid-level
humidities falling below 50 percent should result in some weakening.
The official intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the
guidance envelope, close to the previous forecast, and most closely
aligned with the SHIPS and HCCA aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 15.4N 101.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 16.2N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.2N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 16.2N 114.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 16.6N 119.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 220852
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
300 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025

...NARDA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 101.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 101.5 West. Narda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later today, with this general motion
then continuing through mid week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Narda is expected to become a hurricane on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Narda will lead to storm total rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal
sections of southern Mexico through Tuesday. This brings a risk of
flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 220852
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0900 UTC MON SEP 22 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.2N 107.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 109.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.2N 114.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 16.6N 119.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 101.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 100.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 100.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.9N 101.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.3N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.5N 105.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.4N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.5N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.6N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.9N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.7N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220400Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 100.6W.
22SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1405
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z IS 1006
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 220231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
900 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025

...NARDA LIKELY TO INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 100.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 100.5 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn to
the west-northwest is expected by tomorrow. Narda should be moving
faster to the west by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Narda could
become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Narda will lead to storm total rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal
sections of southern Mexico through Tuesday. This brings a risk of
flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 220232
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
900 PM CST SUN SEP 21 2025

NARDA HASN'T BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE
IMAGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
ARE NOT YET WELL DEFINED, AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT WHICH IS THE MEAN OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK VALUES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR AROUND
305/9 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH OF NARDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST CORRECTED AND
SIMPLE CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS, TVCN AND HCCA. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN.

NARDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
SITUATED OVER A VERY WARM OCEANS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSITY UNTIL SSTS GRADUALLY LOWER LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE AND JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST HCCA
PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 15.3N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 15.9N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.3N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.5N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.4N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.5N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 16.9N 116.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 17.7N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 220231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
0300 UTC MON SEP 22 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 100.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.9N 101.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.3N 103.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 105.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.4N 107.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.9N 116.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.7N 121.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 100.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201251ZSEP25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 99.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 99.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 15.5N 100.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.1N 102.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.3N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.4N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.5N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.5N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.7N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.4N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212200Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 99.8W.
21SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1466
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 1006
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 211300).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 212035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
300 PM CST SUN SEP 21 2025

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 99.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW. NARDA SHOULD BE MOVING
FASTER TO THE WEST BY MIDWEEK.

SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND NARDA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 212036
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
300 PM CST SUN SEP 21 2025

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED
A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, ALBEIT A BIT ELONGATED, ALONG WITH A
LARGE AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. THUS, A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED, AND NARDA'S INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT, CONSISTENT
WITH THE SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND THE 18Z TAFB CLASSIFICATION OF
T2.5.

NARDA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT. THE STORM
SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW AND WESTWARD IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A LARGE
RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS RELATED TO HOW FAST NARDA MOVES. THE NHC
FORECAST IS ON THE QUICK SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE, GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE AND FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE CORRECTED-CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE. NONE OF THE MODELS BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR
MEXICO AT THIS TIME, SO NO WATCHES SEEM TO BE NEEDED.

THE STORM SHOULD BE OVER WARM WATERS WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE RESPOND TO
THIS ENVIRONMENT BY GENERALLY SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A LEVELING OFF AS THE STORM PASSES
OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR AN INITIAL FORECAST, THIS SHOULDN'T BE CONSIDERED TOO
CONFIDENT BECAUSE OF THE WELL-KNOWN PREDICTABILITY CHALLENGES OF A
MODERATE-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NOAA CORRECTED-CONSENSUS HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.7N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 15.5N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.5N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 16.7N 116.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 17.4N 121.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 212034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 99.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 99.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 99.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.5N 100.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 116.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 121.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 99.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=