Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HUMBERTO-25
in Bermuda

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 011505 CCA
TCMAT3

REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1500 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

CORRECTED TO SHOW DISSIPATED AT 02/0000Z

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 63.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 90 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......230NE 230SE 100SW 220NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 63.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 63.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 011454
TCDAT3

Remnants Of Humberto Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 01 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that the center of Humberto has become
ill-defined while the system has merged with a frontal zone. This
will be the last advisory on this system.

Humberto's remnants and Imelda are producing a large area of
hazardous marine conditions over the western and central Atlantic,
where life-threatening rip currents are expected to continue
affecting beaches throughout the region through the week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east
coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 37.0N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO
12H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 011453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Humberto Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 01 2025

...HUMBERTO HAS MERGED WITH A FRONT...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 63.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Humberto were located
near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 63.0 West. The remnants are
moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and
life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the
northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of
the United States over the next several days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 011452
TCMAT3

REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1500 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 63.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 90 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......230NE 230SE 100SW 220NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 63.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 58.7W...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 63.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 010855
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Wed Oct 01 2025

GOES-19 satellite images indicate that the convective structure of
Humberto has started to deteriorate over the past few hours, with
the convection outrunning the low-level center towards the
east-northeast. If this trend continues, it won't take much longer
for Humberto's center to be exposed. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers
range from 55-77 kt, while recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity
estimates have been ranging a bit lower from 53-63 kt. Earlier
ASCAT data had 61-kt retrievals. The initial intensity is held at
70 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated towards the northeast, or 055/12 kt.
An acceleration towards the east-northeast is expected today
within the mid-latitude westerlies. A longwave mid-latitude trough
located to the north of Humberto is quickly dropping southward and
is starting to impinge upon the hurricane's circulation. The
resulting interaction is causing a strengthening frontal boundary
to extend east-northeastward from close to the cyclone center.
Given recent satellite trends as well as the solutions depicted by
the latest GFS and ECMWF models, it appears likely that Humberto
will become fully frontal, and thus extratropical, later this
morning. After that, the global and regional models agree that the
cyclone should quickly become elongated along the frontal boundary
and dissipate this evening.

Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda are producing a large area of
hazardous marine conditions over the western and central Atlantic,
where life-threatening rip currents are expected to continue
affecting beaches throughout the region through the week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east
coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 35.8N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 36.4N 64.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 010855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0900 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 67.3W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......230NE 230SE 100SW 220NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 67.3W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 68.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.4N 64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 230SE 140SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 67.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 010855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Wed Oct 01 2025

...HUMBERTO LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 67.3W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 67.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster motion
toward the east-northeast is expected today until the system merges
with a developing frontal boundary tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight weakening is possible today, but Humberto is expected
to remain a powerful cyclone until it merges with a frontal
boundary tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and
life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the
northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of
the United States over the next several days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Gusty winds are possible over Bermuda through early this
morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 010245
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

Humberto continues to produce a very large area of deep convection,
primarily to the northeast of its circulation center. However, a
2106 UTC GPM microwave pass received after the prior advisory still
showed the low-level center was mostly exposed on the southwest edge
of the cirrus canopy. Satellite estimates have only been in the
45-55 kt range for the last 6-12 hours. However, a recently received
ASCAT pass showed a peak wind retrieval of 61 kt, and assuming the
significant low bias of this instrument at hurricane intensity, the
initial intensity is being held at 70 kt for this advisory. Wind
radii were also adjusted based on the scatterometer data.

The hurricane appears to have made an east-northeastward turn, but
has not accelerated, with the motion estimated at 065/9 kt. A
longwave mid-latitude trough located to the north of Humberto is
quickly dropping southward and will soon start to impinge upon the
hurricane's circulation. The resulting interaction should cause a
strengthening frontal boundary to form to the northeast of
Humberto's center. In fact, the scatterometer data already shows
this boundary beginning to develop in the convection. The global and
hurricane-regional model fields now show Humberto's circulation
quickly becoming indistinguishable from the intensifying baroclinic
zone in 18-24 h. The latest NHC track and intensity forecast will
now show Humberto merging with this boundary by that time. The
remnant vorticity of the storm may ultimately be advected
towards Imelda's circulation beyond that time frame, as it also
interacts with the same boundary.

Regardless of Humberto's evolution, the hurricane, in combination
with Imelda is producing a large area of hazardous marine conditions
over the western and central Atlantic, where life-threatening rip
currents are expected to affect beaches throughout the region
through the week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast
of the United States through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 34.8N 68.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 35.3N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z...MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 010243
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

...HUMBERTO LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 68.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Humberto.

Gusty winds are possible in Bermuda on Wednesday in outer rainbands.
Interests in Bermuda should continue to follow the latest forecasts
for both Humberto and Imelda.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 68.5 West. Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue until the system merges with a
developing frontal boundary.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast and Humberto is expected to
merge with a frontal boundary on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and
life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the
northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of
the United States over the next several days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Gusty winds are possible over Bermuda within outer rainbands
today into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Any distant rainbands associated with Humberto are
expected to bring an additional 1 inch (25 mm) or less of rainfall
to Bermuda tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 010239
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0300 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 68.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......230NE 230SE 90SW 220NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 68.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 69.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.3N 67.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 130SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 68.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 302040
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

Deep convection has persisted in the northeast quadrant through the
day and is now partially obscuring the low-level circulation. An
afternoon AMSR2 microwave satellite pass showed curved band wrapping
around eastern semicircle of the hurricane. Given the slightly
improved satellite presentation and the earlier aircraft data, the
initial intensity remains at 70 kt. The wind radii have been updated
based on a couple scatterometer passes from 1339 and 1500 UTC.

Humberto has turned northward and is moving an estimated 15 kt as
the hurricane nears the mid-latitude trough to its north. Later
today, the cyclone is expected to turn northeast and on Wednesday to
the east-northeast in the westerly flow. Only minor updates have
made to the latest NHC track forecast, which lies on the leading
edge of the track guidance envelope.

Model guidance suggests Humberto should gradually weaken while it
merges with the mid- to upper-level trough during the next day or
so. Humberto's dissipation has once again been moved up based on
recent model trends, now at 36 h. While the official intensity
forecast shows Humberto becoming an extratropical cyclone on
Wednesday, the European model is showing the potential that it could
retain deep organized convection up until the cyclone becomes
elongated and loses its closed surface circulation. The hurricane
is producing a large area of hazardous marine conditions over the
western and central Atlantic, where life-threatening rip currents
are expected to affect beaches throughout the region through the
week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast
of the United States through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 34.0N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 35.3N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 36.1N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 302039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS IMPACTING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 69.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Gusty winds are possible in Bermuda today and Wednesday in outer
rainbands. Interests in Bermuda should continue to follow the
latest forecasts for both Humberto and Imelda.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected later today, followed by a faster
east-northeast motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Humberto will pass west of, and then north of
Bermuda today and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast and Humberto is
expected to become a strong extratropical system on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and
life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the
northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of
the United States over the next several days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Gusty winds are possible over Bermuda within outer rainbands
today into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to 2
inches – 25 to 50 mm – to Bermuda today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 302038
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
2100 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 69.5W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 80SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 69.5W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 69.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.1N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 160SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 69.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 301444
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

...HUMBERTO GENERATING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 69.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Gusty winds are possible in Bermuda today and Wednesday in outer
rainbands. Interests in Bermuda should continue to follow the
latest forecasts for both Humberto and Imelda.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 69.9 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn to
the north and north-northeast is expected today, followed by a much
faster east-northeast motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto will pass west of, and then
north of Bermuda today and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast and Humberto is
expected to become a strong extratropical system on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches) as indicated
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter dropsonde.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and
life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the
northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of
the United States over the next several days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Gusty winds are possible over Bermuda within outer rainbands
today into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to 2
inches – 25 to 50 mm – to Bermuda today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 301444
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

Humberto is quickly decoupling. Strong westerly vertical wind shear
has exposed the low-level circulation, with a curved band of deep
convection still present in the northeastern quadrant. The Air
Force Hurricane Hunters have just completed their final mission into
Humberto, finding peak flight-level winds of 77 kt and a rising
central minimum pressure. The initial intensity has been lowered to
a possibly generous 70 kt.

The hurricane is moving at an estimated 340/16 kt. Humberto is
expect to turn northward and north-northeastward later today,
followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday with an
increase in forward motion as the hurricane merges with a large mid-
to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic. The latest
official track forecast has shifted slightly to the west, largely
due to the current north-northwest motion.

Humberto should gradually weaken while it transitions into a strong
extratropical cyclone. Global models suggest this transition will
occur sooner than previously expected, and the official forecast now
shows Humberto as an extratropical cyclone by Wednesday. By
Thursday, the cyclone is forecast to elongate along a frontal
boundary extending southwestward toward Imelda and lose its closed
circulation. The hurricane is producing a large area of hazardous
marine conditions over the western and central Atlantic, where
life-threatening rip currents are expected to affect beaches along
the eastern seaboard through the week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast
of the United States through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 33.0N 69.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 34.8N 69.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 36.2N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0000Z 37.0N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 301443
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 69.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 69.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 69.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.8N 69.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 210SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.2N 66.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 160SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...260NE 250SE 190SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 69.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 300855
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

Humberto is a highly sheared hurricane. Strong westerly vertical
wind shear has caused the cyclone to continue its weakening trend.
This is well-demonstrated by a recent AMSR2 microwave image, which
shows that the convection has been sheared off from the western half
of Humberto's circulation. Although the low-level center is still
underneath the convective area in GOES-19 imagery, it's close to the
western edge of the convection. The cyclone has taken on an
elongated comma shape, with deep convection extending well off to
the southeast. Subjective intensity estimates range from 77-90 kt,
and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 70-85 kt.
The advisory intensity is adjusted downward to 85 kt based primarily
on this data, and also taking into account ASCAT and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter data from 8-9 hours ago.

Humberto is moving toward the north-northwest, or 340 degrees at 15
kt, in between a subtropical ridge to its east and Tropical Storm
Imelda to its west. Humberto has tracked farther west than the
previous NHC track forecast. A northward turn is expected over the
next few hours as the ridge shifts east and weakens. On Wednesday,
a very large mid- to upper-level trough is expected to amplify over
the north Atlantic, causing Humberto to turn sharply to the
east-northeast and accelerate. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted well to the left of the previous forecast at the 12 and 24
hour points, and is a bit slower than the previous forecast at 36-48
hours. The new NHC forecast is very near the various consensus
aids. This track takes the core of Humberto well west and then
north of Bermuda.

Steady weakening is expected over the next 12 h as northwesterly
vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air persist, followed by
more gradual weakening over the next day or two. By late Wednesday,
Humberto is expected to merge with a mid-to upper-level trough, and
that should cause the system to quickly develop frontal features and
complete extratropical transition. The global models agree that
Humberto will then become extremely elongated along the front and
will likely no longer have a closed circulation by Thursday
afternoon, so the new NHC forecast has moved forward the time of
dissipation. It is important to convey that Humberto is forecast to
be a large and powerful cyclone until it dissipates on Thursday.
The large extratropical low in combination with Imelda will cause
rough marine conditions over a large portion of the western and
central Atlantic. See Key Messages below for more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Humberto's outer rainbands could produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall over Bermuda today and Wednesday. Please follow local
updates from the Bermuda Weather Service for impacts from both
Humberto and Imelda.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast
of the United States through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 31.6N 69.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 33.5N 69.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 35.5N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 36.5N 63.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/0600Z 37.3N 57.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 300853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA, THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, THE BAHAMAS, AND THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 69.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Gusty winds are possible in Bermuda today and Wednesday in outer
rainbands. Interests in Bermuda should continue to follow the
latest forecasts for both Humberto and Imelda.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 69.4 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to
the north is expected today, followed by a much faster northeast or
east-northeast motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Humberto will pass west of, and then north of
Bermuda today and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, with Humberto
expected to become a strong extratropical system on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and
life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the
northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of
the United States over the next several days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Gusty winds are possible over Bermuda within outer rainbands
today into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to 2
inches – 25 to 50 mm – to Bermuda today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 300853
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 69.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....390NE 360SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 69.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.5N 69.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.5N 67.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 130SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.5N 63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...260NE 250SE 190SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 37.3N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...300NE 260SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 69.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 300256
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

Northwesterly vertical wind shear is causing Humberto to lose
strength tonight. Geostationary satellite and microwave images
indicate that the cloud pattern has become asymmetric with the
inner core now fragmented and located near the western edge of the
cloud mass. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
the hurricane over the past few hours and have found that the
minimum pressure has increased to around 963 mb. The aircraft data
also indicate that the maximum winds have lowered to around 100 kt.

Humberto is moving north-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest
side of a subtropical ridge. The hurricane should turn northward on
Tuesday as the ridge shifts east and weakens. On Wednesday, a mid-
to upper-level trough is expected to amplify over the north
Atlantic, causing Humberto to turn sharply to the northeast or
east-northeast and accelerate. The models are in good agreement,
and no significant changes were made to the previous forecast.
This track takes the core of Humberto well west and then north of
Bermuda.

Continued steady weakening is expected as northwesterly vertical
wind shear and intrusions of dry air persist over the next day or
two. By late Wednesday, Humberto is expected to merge with a mid-
to upper-level trough, and that should cause the system to develop
frontal features and complete extratropical transition. Humberto is
expected to grow significantly in size as it becomes extratropical.
The large extratropical low in combination with Imelda will cause
rough marine conditions over a large portion of the western and
central Atlantic. See Key Messages below for more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Humberto's outer rainbands could produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall over Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please follow
local updates from the Bermuda Weather Service for impacts from
both Humberto and Imelda.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast
of the United States through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 30.1N 68.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 32.0N 68.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 34.4N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 36.1N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 37.4N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/1200Z 39.8N 50.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0000Z 43.4N 40.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 300255
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA, THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, THE BAHAMAS, AND THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 68.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Gusty winds are possible in Bermuda Tuesday and Wednesday in outer
rainbands. Interests in Bermuda should continue to follow the
latest forecasts for both Humberto and Imelda.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 68.5 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to
the north is expected on Tuesday, followed by a much faster
northeast or east-northeast motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto will pass west, and then
north of Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast, Humberto
is expected to become a strong extratropical system in a couple of
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and
life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the
northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of
the United States over the next several days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Gusty winds are possible over Bermuda within outer rainbands
Tuesday into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches – 25 to 50 mm – to Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 300254
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0300 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 68.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 190SE 120SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....390NE 360SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 68.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 32.0N 68.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.4N 67.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.1N 64.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.4N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 180SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 39.8N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 43.4N 40.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 68.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 292053
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

After some brief re-intensification this morning, satellite imagery
depicts that Humberto has started to feel the impacts of wind shear.
The ring of deep convection has become a little more broken on
infrared imagery, particularly on the western side of the system.
Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft data depicted that the eyewall was
open on the southwest side, and recent microwave imagery shows that
the eyewall may be completely open on the western side. As the
previous aircraft was departing, the pressure had come up a couple
millibars which also suggests the system may have begun to weaken,
and thus that trend is followed in this advisory. Using the latest
satellite trends, and a combination of intensity estimates with
previous aircraft data, the intensity is lowered to 120 kt for this
advisory. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system late this evening to help
evaluate the intensity and structure of the system.

Humberto is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of
330/11 kt. The system should continue to round the western
periphery of the mid-level ridge and gradually turn to the north
then northeast over the next day or so. A trough moving into the
northern Atlantic will then pick up the system, and cause Humberto
to accelerate to the northeast to east-northeast over the next
several days. There is slightly more along-track spread with the
forward speed towards the end of the forecast period in the latest
guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is near the previous one,
however slightly slower at long range, and lies near the consensus
track aids.

A weakening trend has started with Humberto, as wind shear appears
to have started to disrupt the circulation. Wind shear is forecast
to continue increasing over the system, and sea surface temperatures
will also cool along the forecast track. Model simulated IR images
depicts that Humberto will become more asymmetric with most of the
convection displaced to the eastern side of the circulation due to
the shear. In about 60 h, both the GFS and ECMWF guidance depict
that the system should merge with the previously mentioned trough
digging across the north Atlantic and develop frontal features. As
the system becomes extratropical across the north Atlantic, the wind
field is anticipated to grow in size. The latest NHC intensity
forecast lies on the higher end of the guidance envelope given the
latest increase in intensity, and then shows weakening throughout
the period. By 96h, the system is expected to dissipate and merge
within the larger trough.

Along the forecast track, Humberto is expected to move to the west
and north of Bermuda, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible
within outer rainbands late Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible within outer
rainbands of Humberto. The Tropical Storm Watch has been replaced
with a Hurricane Watch, due to the forecast of Imelda. Please follow
local updates from Bermuda Weather Service for impacts from
Humberto.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of the
United States.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 29.1N 68.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 30.8N 68.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 33.4N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 35.4N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 36.8N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 38.4N 54.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1800Z 41.5N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 292052
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
2100 UTC MON SEP 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 68.1W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 68.1W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 67.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.8N 68.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.4N 68.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.4N 66.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.8N 61.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 160SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.4N 54.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 41.5N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 230NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 68.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 292052
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

...HUMBERTO PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS FOR BERMUDA
AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...
...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OUTER RAINBANDS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS BERMUDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 68.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Tropical Storm Watch
with a Hurricane Watch due to the forecast for Imelda.

Interests in Bermuda should continue to follow the latest forecast
for both Humberto and Imelda.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 68.1 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual
turn towards the north is expected over the next day or so. The
hurricane is then forecast to turn and accelerate east-northeastward
by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Humberto will pass west, and then north of Bermuda on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast over the next several
days, although Humberto is expected to remain a dangerous major
hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and
life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the
northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of
the United States over the next several days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Gusty winds are possible over Bermuda within outer rainbands
Tuesday into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches – 25 to 50 mm – to Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291738
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
200 PM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS FOR
BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS WEEK...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 67.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. This
Tropical Storm Watch may be replaced with a Hurricane Watch later
today due to Imelda.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 67.9 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual
turn towards the north is expected over the next day or so. The
hurricane is then forecast to turn and accelerate east-northeastward
by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Humberto will pass west, and then north of Bermuda on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast after that, but
Humberto is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane into
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches – 25 to 50 mm – to Bermuda Monday night through Tuesday


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 291441
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found Humberto has
strengthened this morning. The aircraft depicted that the system has
completed an eyewall replacement cycle, with the outer eyewall as
depicted on earlier microwave imagery now dominant, and the old
inner eyewall has collapsed. The aircraft however did depict that
the eyewall is open on the southwest side which is likely due to the
impacts of increasing wind shear. Maximum flight level winds in the
northeast quadrant were 138 kt, which supported the increased
intensity to 125 kt at the intermediate advisory. Using the latest
hurricane hunter and scatterometer wind data, the wind radii have
been slightly adjusted and the intensity is held at 125 kt for this
advisory.

Humberto is moving northwestward at an estimated motion of 325/ 11
kt, along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical
ridge. A gradual turn to the north then northeast over the next day
or so is anticipated as the system rounds the western periphery of
the ridge, and the NHC forecast has been shifted slightly to the
left closer to the consensus aids in the short term. The system will
then begin to move northeast to east-northeastward as the system is
picked up by a trough moving into the north Atlantic. The NHC
forecast is similar to the previous through the end of the forecast
period, with a slight nudge towards the latest consensus aids.

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next 12 h or
so. Thereafter, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface
temperatures should induce a weakening trend. The wind shear will
also cause Humberto become quite asymmetric with most of the
convection displaced to the eastern side of the circulation. In
about 60 h, global models depict that the system should merge with
the previously mentioned trough digging across the north Atlantic
and develop frontal features. As the system becomes extratropical
across the north Atlantic, the wind field is anticipated to grow in
size. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of
the guidance envelope given the latest increase in intensity, and
then shows weakening throughout the period. By 96h, the system is
expected to dissipate and merge within the larger trough.

Along the forecast track, Humberto is expected to move to the west
and north of Bermuda, although there is a possibility of
tropical-storm-force winds occuring over the island late Tuesday and
Wednesday within outer rainbands.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds could begin to affect Bermuda by late
Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for the island.
Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Humberto.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The dangerous surf conditions are
expected to begin affecting much of the east coast of the U.S.
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 28.0N 67.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 29.6N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 32.1N 69.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 34.4N 67.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 36.1N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 37.4N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1200Z 40.6N 49.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 291440
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1500 UTC MON SEP 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 67.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 67.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 67.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.6N 68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 32.1N 69.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.4N 67.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.1N 64.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.4N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 200SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.6N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 230NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 67.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS FOR
BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS WEEK...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 67.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. This
Tropical Storm Watch may be replaced with a Hurricane Watch later
today due to Imelda.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 28.0 North, longitude 67.6 West. Humberto is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).A gradual turn towards the
north-northwest then north is expected over the next day or so. The
hurricane is then forecast to turn and accelerate east-northeastward
by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Humberto will pass west, and then north of Bermuda on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today.
Gradual weakening is forecast after that, but Humberto is expected
to remain a dangerous major hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches – 25 to 50 mm – to Bermuda Monday night through Tuesday


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291159
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
800 AM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
FOR BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS WEEK...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 67.3W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 67.3 West. Humberto is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn towards
the north is expected over the next day or so. The hurricane is then
forecast to turn and accelerate east-northeastward by late Tuesday
or early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto
will pass west, and then north of Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
possible today. Gradual weakening is forecast after that, but
Humberto is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane into
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, to Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 290854
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

Humberto has gone through some inner-core structural changes.
Earlier aircraft data indicated that the hurricane had a double
eyewall structure, but a 29/0546 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicates
that the inner eyewall is starting to get overtaken by the outer
eyewall. Given the the apparent continued weakening of the inner
eyewall as inferred from GOES-19 imagery since the time of the
microwave pass, Humberto's maximum sustained winds are probably near
the lower end of the recent objective and subjective estimates, so
the initial intensity is nudged downward slightly to 115 kt.
Another Air Force plane will be in Humberto in a few hours to better
assess the intensity.

Humberto is still moving northwestward, or 320 degrees at 12 kt in
the flow on the south-southwest side of a subtropical high. The
major hurricane is expected to gradually turn to the north over the
next 24 hours as the high shifts to the east and weakens. After
that, a trough is expected to amplify over the north Atlantic, and
that should cause Humberto to turn sharply and accelerate
east-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday. The NHC forecast is
similar to the previous one through 24 h, but then has been shifted
slightly to the northwest, or left, of the previous forecast after
that time, close to the latest model consensus. Confidence in the
track forecast is high through 48 h. While there is high confidence
that the core of Humberto will miss Bermuda, there is a possibility
of tropical-storm-force winds occurring there late Tuesday and
Wednesday in Humberto's outer bands.

The intensity of Humberto will likely fluctuate over the next 12 h
or so, but gradual weakening is expected after that due to
increasing shear and decreasing SSTs. Extratropical transition is
expected to be complete in 60-72 hours when the system is forecast
to merge with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough and
develop frontal features. The NHC intensity forecast is between the
middle and higher end of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is
expected to grow in size as it gains latitude during the next few
days, which will result in a large area of rough seas. See Key
Messages below for more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds could begin to affect Bermuda by late
Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for the island.
Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Humberto.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The dangerous surf conditions are
expected to begin affecting much of the east coast of the U.S.
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 27.2N 66.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 28.6N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 30.9N 68.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 33.3N 68.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 35.4N 66.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 36.9N 61.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 39.0N 54.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

...CATEGORY 4 HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF FOR
BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS WEEK...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 66.9W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 66.9 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn
towards the north is expected over the next day or so. The hurricane
is then forecast to turn and accelerate east-northeastward by late
Tuesday or early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto will pass well west, and then north of Bermuda on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today.
Gradual weakening is forecast after that, but Humberto is expected
to remain a dangerous major hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, to Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 290852
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0900 UTC MON SEP 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 66.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 210SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 66.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.9N 68.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.3N 68.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.4N 66.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 210SE 140SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.9N 61.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 200SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...340NE 270SE 240SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 66.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290552
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
200 AM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

...CATEGORY 4 HUMBERTO WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF FOR BERMUDA
AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 66.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 66.6 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn
towards the north is expected over the next day or so. The
hurricane is then forecast to turn and accelerate
east-northeastward by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto will pass well west, and
then north of Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during
the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast after that, but
Humberto is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane for
another couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb (27.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
early Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, to Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 290243
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

Humberto remains a powerful category 4 hurricane over the
subtropical western Atlantic. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating Humberto this evening and found that the major
hurricane has concentric eyewalls, with a double wind maximum noted
in all quadrants. Based on the flight-level wind data, the initial
intensity is set at 120 kt. Dropsonde data from the aircraft suggest
that the minimum pressure is quite low at 928 mb.

Humberto is moving northwestward at 12 kt in the flow on the
south-southwest side of a subtropical high. The major hurricane is
expected to gradually turn to the north by late Monday and Tuesday
as the high shifts to the east and weakens. After that, a trough is
expected to amplify over the north Atlantic, and that should cause
Humberto to turn sharply and accelerate east-northeastward Tuesday
night and Wednesday. The models are in good agreement, and only
minor changes were made to the previous track forecast. While there
is high confidence that the core of Humberto will miss Bermuda,
there is a possibility of tropical-storm-force winds occurring there
late Tuesday and Wednesday in Humberto's outer bands.

The intensity of Humberto will likely fluctuate over the next 12 to
24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected after that due to
increasing shear and decreasing SSTs. Extratropical transition is
now forecast to be complete by 72 hours when the system is expected
to merge with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough and
develop frontal features. The NHC intensity forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is expected to grow
in size as it gains latitude during the next few days, which will
result in a large area of rough seas. See Key Messages below for
more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds could begin to affect Bermuda by late
Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for the island.
Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Humberto.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The dangerous surf conditions are
expected to begin affecting much of the east coast of the U.S. on
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 26.2N 66.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 27.5N 67.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 29.5N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 31.9N 68.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 34.2N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 35.9N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 37.3N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0000Z 43.5N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290240
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE HUMBERTO REMAINS A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS SURF WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 66.2W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM NNW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 66.2 West. Humberto is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the north is expected over the next day or so. The hurricane is then
forecast to turn and accelerate east-northeastward by late Tuesday
or early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto
will pass well west, and then north of Bermuda on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during
the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast after that, but
Humberto is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane for
another couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb (27.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, to Bermuda Monday night through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 290239
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 66.2W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 210SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 66.2W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.5N 67.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.9N 68.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.2N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 64.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.3N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 43.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 250SW 230NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 66.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 282353
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
800 PM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVSTIGATING HUMBERTO...
...DANGEROUS SURF WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 65.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM NNW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 65.7 West. Humberto is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the north is expected over the next day or two. The hurricane is
then forecast to turn and accelerate east-northeastward by late
Tuesday or early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto will pass well west, and then north of Bermuda on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during
the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast after that, but
Humberto is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane for
another couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 928 mb (27.40 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, to Bermuda Monday night through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 282039
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

Humberto continues to have a small inner core, surrounded by a much
larger ring of deep convection. This structure is evident in visible
and IR satellite imagery, in which a moat of warmer cloud tops
outside of the inner eyewall has been noted at times during day.
This structure has likely caused Humberto's intensity to decrease
today, and the 125-kt intensity estimate is on the high end of
recent objective and subjective estimates. However, this has also
caused the wind field to increase, which was confirmed by ASCAT data
that arrived shortly after the issuance of the previous advisory. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Humberto this evening, which should provide more
information about the strength and structure of the hurricane.

Overall, no significant changes were made to the NHC track,
intensity, or radii forecasts for Humberto. The hurricane should
move west and then north of Bermuda over the next few days while it
slowly weakens but grows in size. Confidence in the forecast through
that period is fairly high, with the model spread being smaller than
normal. The forecast uncertainty is higher after that, but Humberto
is subsequently expected to become a post-tropical frontal low
between 72 and 96 h. Regardless of its exact strength or forward
speed, Humberto will be a strong and large hurricane-strength low
throughout the forecast period, even as its surface circulation will
likely become ill defined by the end of the week. The NHC forecast
is close to a blend of the multi-model consensus and the Google
DeepMind Ensemble Mean at all times.

The primary concerns for Humberto continue to be its production of
dangerous surf which will affect Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast
for the next several days, and the growth of its wind field, which
could result in tropical-storm-force winds affecting Bermuda
by late Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds could begin to affect Bermuda by late
Tuesday. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Bermuda. Interests there should continue to monitor the
progress of Humberto.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The dangerous surf conditions are
expected to begin affecting the U.S. East Coast on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 25.5N 65.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 26.8N 66.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 28.7N 67.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 30.8N 68.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 33.3N 68.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 35.2N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 36.4N 62.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 41.5N 47.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 282039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...
...DANGEROUS SURF WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 65.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM NNW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 65.4 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the north is expected over the next day or two. The hurricane
is then forecast to turn and accelerate east-northeastward by late
Tuesday or early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto will pass well west, and then north of Bermuda on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during
the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast after that, but
Humberto is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
An OSHEN C-Star drone recently measured a minimum pressure near 955
mb in the eyewall of Humberto with gusts to hurricane strength at an
anemometer height of about 2 feet (0.5 m).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches, or 25 to 50 mm, to Bermuda Monday night through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 282038
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
2100 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 65.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 65.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 64.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 67.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.8N 68.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.3N 68.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.2N 67.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 210SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.4N 62.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 190SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 41.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 250SW 230NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 65.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 281437
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

Humberto has weakened slightly, likely the result of an ongoing
eyewall replacement cycle, but it remains a powerful hurricane. The
initial intensity of 130 kt is based primarily on a blend of Final-T
and CI Dvorak values from TAFB. That value is on the high end of the
various objective estimates, but the 1210 UTC UW-CIMSS DPRINT Vmax
value was also 130 kt. For the next day or two, Humberto's intensity
will likely be determined largely by internal dynamics like
additional eyewall replacement cycles, and by how large of an eye it
develops. GPM microwave data from earlier this morning showed the
presence of a very large outer ring of deep convection around
Humberto's center. If that larger ring ultimately replaces
Humberto's eyewall, it could result in the hurricane having a lower
intensity in the short term than currently forecast, but a rapidly
larger extent of hurricane-force winds.

Consequently, the main concern for Humberto going forward is not how
strong it will be, but how large. In addition to the expected
expansion of Humberto's hurricane-force inner core, the
tropical-storm-force wind radii are also expected to expand quickly
in the next few days. As a result of this, even though the core of
Humberto is forecast to move west and then north of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force impacts appear increasingly likely and tropical
storm watches could be required there later today. Humberto is also
expected to produce swells that affect most of the western Atlantic,
with dangerous surf conditions starting along the U.S. East Coast on
Monday.

Humberto's initial motion hasn't changed, and the track forecast
reasoning is very similar to previous forecasts. Humberto should
move around the southwest periphery of the subtropical ridge for
the next couple of days, moving west of Bermuda on Tuesday. The
hurricane should then accelerate east-northeastward as it becomes
post-tropical. Humberto's winds should expand further as its
intensity gradually decreases through the middle of the week, but it
is forecast to remain a very powerful hurricane-force low, even
after it becomes post-tropical.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force winds
affecting Bermuda by late Tuesday. Interests there should monitor
the progress of Humberto and watches could be issued later today.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The dangerous surf conditions are
expected to begin affecting the U.S. East Coast on Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 24.6N 64.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 25.7N 65.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 27.3N 67.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 68.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 31.6N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 33.7N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 35.6N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 39.7N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 281436
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 64.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 64.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 63.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.7N 65.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 67.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.3N 68.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.6N 69.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.7N 68.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.6N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 170SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 39.7N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 250SW 250NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 64.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281436
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

...HUMBERTO FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 64.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto, as
watches could be required later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 64.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the northwest, and then north is expected over the next
couple of days. By the middle of the week, Humberto is forecast to
begin accelerating toward the east-northeast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during
the next day or so. Gradual weakening is expected after that, but
Humberto is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). Humberto is expected to grow quickly during the next few
days, resulting in a much larger wind field.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 280859
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

Humberto continues to display a clear, circular eye about 10-15
miles in diameter. Although the eye temperatures are still fairly
warm around 15C, the area of cloud tops colder then -70C has shrunk
a bit in the southwest quadrant, and data-T numbers have
continuously been lower than 7.0 for about 8 hours now. The latest
subjective CI numbers range from 127-140 kt, and the latest
objective intensity estimates range from 125-135 kt. Based on the
above analyses and data, the initial intensity is nudged down to 135
kt.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300 degrees
at 11 kt. Over the next couple of days, Humberto will round the
southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge
located northeast of the cyclone. Humberto will turn northward by
early Tuesday in between the ridge and Tropical Depression Nine,
which should be located to the west-southwest of Humberto. By
Tuesday night, Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward
while the aforementioned ridge weakens and shifts eastward.
Humberto should turn quickly toward the northeast to east-northeast
by mid-week in response to a large, amplifying upper-level trough
moving out of the Canadian Maritimes and into the northwestern
Atlantic waters. There remains quite a bit of along-track spread
at days 4 and 5. The new NHC forecast is slightly faster toward
the northwest through 48 h, then lies to the northwest, or left of,
the previous official forecast at 60-72 when it makes its closest
approach to Bermuda. In other words, the new forecast shows the
center passing a bit farther from Bermuda, however, Bermuda still
has roughly a 50 percent chance of getting tropical-storm-force
winds, most likely on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

There have been no recent microwave passes over Humberto in the
last 6 h, but infrared imagery suggests there could be a partial
outer ring trying to become more dominant. SHIPS predictors and
the UW-CIMSS Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replace Cycle
(M-PERC) guidance indicate a high likelihood of an eyewall
replacement cycle commencing within the next 12 h. Otherwise,
environmental conditions are pretty favorable for the next 12 h, so
the forecast will show Humberto maintaining its current intensity
for 12 h despite the potential for fluctuations. Thereafter, all
of the intensity guidance points toward gradual weakening as there
is potential for gradually increasing vertical wind shear during
the 36 to 60 hour time frame. By hour 72, Humberto should
encounter significantly stronger upper-level westerly flow and begin
the process of extratropical transition. Extratropical transition
should be complete around 96 h, after Humberto crosses the 26
degree C sea-surface temperature isotherm, as all global models
show a warm front extending northeastward from Humberto by that
time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 23.9N 63.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 24.9N 64.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 26.4N 66.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.3N 67.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.3N 68.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 32.5N 68.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 34.5N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 38.2N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0600Z 46.4N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HUMBERTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...COULD BRING HAZARDS TO BERMUDA IN A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 63.3W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto, as
watches could be required later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 63.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected this morning, followed by a turn to
the north-northwest on Monday evening. Humberto is forecast to then
turn north-northeastward and move west of Bermuda by Tuesday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Humberto should remain a
powerful major hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280854
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0900 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 63.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 165SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 63.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.9N 64.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.4N 66.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.3N 67.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.3N 68.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.5N 68.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.5N 67.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 140SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.2N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 230SW 230NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 46.4N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 80NW.
34 KT...350NE 320SE 310SW 200NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 63.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280233
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 HUMBERTO NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 62.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 62.1 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest is anticipated on Monday evening. Humberto is
forecast to then turn north-northeastward and move west of Bermuda
by Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Humberto should remain a powerful major
hurricane for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Bermuda beginning tonight and continuing through next week. Swells
from Humberto will also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280233
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0300 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 62.1W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 924 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 62.1W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 61.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.4N 65.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.1N 66.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.1N 68.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.9N 68.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.2N 67.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 58.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 44.7N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...350NE 320SE 280SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 62.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 272044
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

Humberto has quickly strengthened during the past several hours. A
very symmetric ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C now
surrounds the clear eye of the hurricane. At 1800 UTC, the TAFB
subjective Dvorak analysis was 7.0/140 kt. Most of the objective
techniques like the UW-CIMSS ADT and AIDT, as well as the SAB
subjective Dvorak fix supported a slightly lower intensity, closer
to 130 kt. However, since that time, cloud tops around Humberto
have gotten colder and the objective estimates have increased.
Therefore, the intensity has been set at 140 kt, making Humberto the
second category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Internal factors
like eyewall replacement cycles will likely dominate Humberto's
intensity for the next day or two, so fluctuations in maximum wind
speeds are expected. All of the intensity guidance indicates that
some slow weakening is expected to begin by Monday, before Humberto
begins to interact with a mid-latitude trough on Tuesday. The
cyclone should then begin its extratropical transition shortly
thereafter, resulting in a quicker decrease in maximum winds but an
expansion of the overall wind field. Overall, little change was
needed to the official forecast aside from showing a higher
intensity for the first day or two.

Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the track forecast.
Humberto is moving slightly faster, but westward, near 9 kt. The
hurricane is still forecast to move around the subtropical ridge for
the next few days before it interacts with the aforementioned trough
and accelerates quickly northeastward. The spread in the model track
guidance has increased since the last advisory, particularly with
regard to how fast Humberto will accelerate northeastward in 4 or 5
days. Confidence in that aspect of the forecast has therefore
decreased, even though little change was made to the official
forecast. The NHC forecast remains generally based on a blend of the
GDMI, the AIGEFS and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.9N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 62.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.7N 64.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 26.2N 66.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.0N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 32.1N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 36.1N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 42.5N 46.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Bookbinder


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 272043
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
2100 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 61.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 61.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 60.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N 62.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.7N 64.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.2N 66.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.1N 68.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.1N 62.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 42.5N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...350NE 320SE 280SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/BOOKBINDER


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 272043
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

...HUMBERTO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 61.1 West. Humberto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is anticipated on Sunday. Humberto is forecast
to then turn northward and move west of Bermuda by Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h)
with higher gusts. Humberto is now a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Humberto will likely remain a
powerful major hurricane for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Bermuda beginning tonight and continuing through next week. Swells
from Humberto will also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bookbinder/D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 271439
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

Since the last advisory, Humberto's eye has once again become better
defined and recent WSF-M microwave imagery at 1001 UTC did not
indicate the presence of concentric eyewalls. Together, these data
suggest Humberto completed its eyewall replacement cycle. Recent
objective and subjective intensity estimates range from near 120 kt
to just below 130 kt, so the initial intensity remains 125 kt.

With the previous eyewall cycle completing, Humberto may resume
strengthening today, and this is still indicated in the official
forecast. Fluctuations in intensity, up or down, will be possible
with with any additional eyewall replacement cycles, and the
predictability of the specific timing of such events is quite low,
even as the SHIPS secondary eyewall prediction indicates a 2 in 3
chance that another one will occur in the next two days. With the
environment otherwise expected to be favorable for strengthening,
the NHC forecast continues to show strengthening and maintains
Humberto at or above its current strength through the weekend. Next
week, Humberto should begin to interact with a mid-latitude trough
and undergo a transformation resulting in a significant expansion of
its surface wind field and eventual extratropical transition. While
Humberto's peak winds should decrease as a result, the spread of its
impacts will likely increase as the cyclone grows in size.

The hurricane has accelerated a little, with a forward speed now
near 7 kt. Humberto will move around the subtropical ridge for the
next few days and then accelerate northeastward as it interacts with
the aforementioned mid-latitude trough. The official forecast is
very similar to the previous one, but with a slightly faster
forward speed. The NHC forecast remains closest to a blend of the
Google DeepMind and NOAA AIGEFS ensemble means, and the previous
official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.7N 60.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.1N 61.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 25.5N 65.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.1N 66.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 67.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 31.3N 68.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 35.4N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 40.8N 50.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271438
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

...DANGEROUS SURF FROM MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA SHORES LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 60.2 West. Humberto is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is anticipated on Sunday. Humberto is forecast to then
turn northward by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today. Humberto
will likely remain a powerful major hurricane for the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Bermuda beginning tonight and continuing next week. Swells from
Humberto will also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 271437
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1500 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 60.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 60.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 59.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N 61.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.1N 66.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 67.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.3N 68.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 35.4N 64.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 150SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 40.8N 50.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...350NE 300SE 300SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 60.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270845
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

Humberto seems to have paused its meteoric rise for the moment.
The eye has become smaller and more distorted based on GOES
satellite imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass showed some evidence
that the concentric rings mentioned in the previous discussion have
contracted, indicating an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. The
microwave images also displayed classic hurricane structure, with
curved banding in all quadrants and no signs of dry air intrusions.
The satellite intensity estimates have leveled off overnight, and
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt, closest to the UW-CIMSS ADT
of T6.3.

While internal dynamics may have interrupted Humberto's
strengthening, the hurricane still has about a day of conducive
environmental and oceanic conditions to intensify. Some of the
regional hurricane models show slight strengthening, though most of
the model guidance suggests Humberto will hold generally steady for
the next couple of days. By next week, the vertical wind shear is
expected to increase and induce a gradual weakening trend. As
Humberto gains latitude, a significant expansion in the surface wind
field will likely occur while it passes west of Bermuda.
Phase-space analyses of global model forecasts by day 5 show
Humberto as an extratropical cyclone, or close to one. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction
and lies on the high end of the guidance in the short-term.

The hurricane is moving westward at 5 kt. A subtropical ridge
centered over the western Atlantic should slowly steer Humberto to
the west or west-northwest during the next day or so, then turn the
cyclone to the northwest and north-northwest by early next week. By
day 4, an amplifying upper-level trough moving out of the Canadian
Maritimes is expected to rapidly steer Humberto northeastward. The
NHC track forecast shifted slightly eastward this cycle and is a
little quicker at days 4 and 5. It lies between the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean and the previous prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 22.3N 59.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 22.6N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 24.4N 64.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 25.8N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 27.3N 67.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 29.1N 68.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 33.4N 66.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 37.7N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 59.3W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 59.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). By early Monday, a
turn toward the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is
forecast followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by Monday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will begin affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Bermuda this weekend and early next week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270844
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 59.3W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 59.3W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 58.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 60.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.4N 64.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.8N 66.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.3N 67.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.1N 68.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.4N 66.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 37.7N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 210NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270238
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

Humberto has continued to intensify rapidly this evening. The eye
temperature has increased to 15C and the eyewall white ring (-73C)
is nearly closed. A 2137 UTC WSFM-1 HiRes microwave pass indicated
that a concentric ring was developing about 65 nm from the eye. The
initial intensity is raised to 125 kt and is close to the UW-CIMSS
ADT of T6.4 and above the constrained subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

All intensity contributions, low shear, warm waters, and ample
mid-level moisture, appear conducive for Humberto to intensify
rapidly during the next 12-24 hours. DTOPS guidance indicates
a high probability of RI during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest
official intensity forecast follows suit, bringing Humberto to a
peak intensity of 140 kt Saturday night. By the 36 hour period,
however, inner-core fluctuations as a result of eyewall replacement
cycles (ERC) are possible, and it's difficult to forecast the exact
timing. It's worth mentioning, however, that the UW-CIMSS M-PERC
(Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle)
statistical model is predicting a 61 percent of onset. By mid-next
week, increasing vertical shear spreading over Humberto should
induce a gradual weakening trend. At the same time, while it passes
west of Bermuda, a significant expansion in the surface wind field
will likely occur. The NHC intensity forecast is just above the
previous forecast through the 36 hour period, and closely follows a
blend of the HCCA consensus and the HAFS/HWRF/HMON hurricane models.

Humberto has taken a trochoidal jog to the left of the track this
evening, likely due to the rapid intensification event. The initial
motion is estimated to be slightly south of due west, or 265/6 kt.
Humberto is expected to move slowly toward the west or
west-northwest during the next day or so in the easterly steering
flow provided by mid-tropospheric high pressure located to the north
of the cyclone and just east of Bermuda. Around the 48 hour period,
or Sunday evening, a northwestward turn with some reduction in
forward speed is forecast while the above-mentioned high pressure
weakens and shifts eastward. By day 4, Humberto should commence a
rather abrupt turn northward and northeastward in response to a
major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of
northeastern Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic. The
official track forecast is located just to the left of the previous
advisory, primarily due to the initial motion left of track, and
lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind
ensemble model.

NOAA buoy 41044, located about 38 n mi southwest of the center, has
reported falling pressure,sustained tropical-storm-force winds,
gusts just below hurricane-force and 17 ft seas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 22.1N 58.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 22.7N 61.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 23.6N 63.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 24.8N 65.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 26.2N 67.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 32.1N 68.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270237
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0300 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 58.7W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 58.7W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 58.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 59.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 61.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.6N 63.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.8N 65.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.2N 67.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 32.1N 68.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 140SW 170NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 58.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270237
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...RAPID STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 58.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 58.7 West. Humberto is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). By early Monday, a
turn toward the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is
forecast followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by Monday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have quickly increased to near 145 mph (230
km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will begin affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 262037
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

Satellite data indicate Humberto has strengthened into the third
major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The eye of
the hurricane has cleared out this afternoon and is surrounded by a
ring of deep, cold convective cloud tops. Based on these
developments, the latest subjective Dvorak classifications and
objective intensity estimates have risen to 90-102 kt. The initial
intensity of Humberto is set at 100 kt for this advisory. NOAA buoy
41044, located about 50 n mi southwest of the center, has reported
falling pressures and tropical-storm-force gusts this afternoon.

Humberto remains in a low shear environment over very warm
sea-surface temperatures, and its well-defined inner core structure
appears conducive to further intensification unless an eyewall
replacement cycle occurs. The latest intensity guidance favors
continued strengthening, and this is reflected in the updated NHC
forecast. There are differences noted in the upper-air pattern of
the global models later in the period, likely related to the
evolution and future path of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. But in
general, increasing deep-layer shear over the hurricane should
induce at least gradual weakening by early next week. Although the
peak winds are forecast to decrease, the wind field is expected to
expand as Humberto gains latitude and curves around Bermuda at days
3-5.

The hurricane is moving slowly northwestward (295/4 kt). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion should continue through the
next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest later this
weekend with a gradual increase in forward speed as a subtropical
ridge slides eastward over the central Atlantic. A slight southward
adjustment was made to the near-term NHC track forecast based on
today's trends, but otherwise this portion of the forecast is
similar to the previous one. Later in the period, the models are
fairly consistent on a sharp recurvature of the hurricane between
the ridge and an upper trough digging over the northwestern
Atlantic, though there are larger along-track speed differences
noted. This part of the forecast generally lies between the
multi-model consensus aids and the Google DeepMind solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 22.3N 58.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 22.4N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.8N 60.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 23.4N 62.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 24.6N 64.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 26.0N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 31.7N 68.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 35.5N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 262034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

...HUMBERTO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 58.1W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 58.1 West. Humberto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster
forward speed is forecast through the weekend, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast over the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). NOAA buoy 41044 located to the southwest of Humberto
recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust of
49 mph (80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will begin affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 262033
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
2100 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 58.1W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 58.1W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 57.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.4N 59.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.8N 60.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.4N 62.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.6N 64.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.7N 68.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 35.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 140SW 170NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 58.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 261447
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

Humberto continues to rapidly strengthen this morning. Infrared
satellite images show a ring of deep, cold inner core convection
wrapping around an eye that has recently emerged in conventional
satellite imagery. Objective satellite intensity estimates are
quickly climbing, and the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt for
this advisory, in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS ADT and AiDT
estimates. A recent ASCAT-B pass over the hurricane was used to
update the 34- and 50-kt wind radii of Humberto.

The rapidly improving satellite structure, along with conducive
environmental and oceanic conditions, suggest that significant to
rapid intensification (RI) is likely to continue in the short term.
In fact, the latest DTOPS guidance shows a greater than 80 percent
chance of Humberto strengthening by 30 kt in the next 24 h. Thus,
rapid intensification is explicitly forecast here, and the NHC
intensity forecast has been raised during the first 48-72 h of the
forecast period. This forecast most closely follows the regional
hurricane models and the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA), on the
higher end of the guidance envelope. By early next week, there are
indications that deep-layer shear will increase over Humberto, and
some weakening is shown beyond 72 h. Note that as Humberto gains
latitude, the wind field is forecast to expand while the hurricane
curves around Bermuda at days 4-5.

The hurricane is moving slowly northwestward at about 4 kt.
Humberto should move toward the west-northwest and northwest during
the next couple of days along the southern periphery of a
subtropical ridge over the western and central Atlantic. As this
ridge slides eastward, the hurricane is forecast to recurve around
this feature, turning northward and then accelerating northeastward
early next week. The models are in very good agreement on this
sharp recurvature over the western Atlantic, and only minor
adjustments were made to the latest NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 22.3N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 22.5N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 23.3N 61.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 25.3N 65.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 26.8N 66.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 30.6N 68.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 66.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 261445
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1500 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 57.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 57.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 57.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.5N 58.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.3N 61.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.3N 65.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.8N 66.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.6N 68.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 57.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 261445
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

...HUMBERTO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 57.7W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 57.7 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a gradual increase
in forward speed is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is expected over the
next couple of days, and Humberto is forecast to become a major
hurricane later today or on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will begin affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260843
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

Humberto has become better organized during the past several hours.
Conventional satellite imagery has shown a growing central dense
overcast, with hints of an eye-like feature near the center.
Microwave imagery revealed a well-defined rain band wrapping around
a vertically-aligned vortex, suggesting the developing of an
eyewall. Satellite classifications have risen notably on this
cycle and the initial intensity is set to 65 kt, closest to the
TAFB Dvorak and SATCON estimates.

The hurricane is drifting slowly in weak steering currents with an
estimated motion of 320/3 kt. Model guidance is in relatively good
agreement, showing Humberto gradually increasing speed while moving
west-northward to northwestward along the southern side of a
subtropical ridge during the next few days. By early next week, the
hurricane is expected to turn northward around the westward
periphery of the high and begin accelerating northeastward. Only
minor adjustments have been made to the latest official track
forecast.

Humberto is showing signs of steady-to-rapid intensification. The
hurricane is over warm waters and seems to be experiencing less
vertical wind shear than the global models are currently suggesting.
Statistical rapid intensity indicators, such as DTOPS, are showing
elevated probabilities of a 25 to 30 kt increase in the next 24
hours. Given these probabilities and the recent increase in initial
intensity, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased,
particularly in the near-term forecast, and lies above most of the
guidance. By the middle of the forecast period, it is closer the
the corrected consensus aid, HCCA, and still shows Humberto becoming
a major hurricane this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 22.2N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 22.3N 57.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 22.6N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 22.9N 60.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 23.5N 62.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 24.5N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 26.0N 66.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 29.7N 68.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 33.7N 67.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260841
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 57.3W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 57.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast, and
Humberto is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260840
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0900 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 57.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 57.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 57.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.3N 57.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.6N 59.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.9N 60.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.5N 64.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 29.7N 68.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.7N 67.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 57.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260241
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 25 2025

Humberto continues to gain strength while moving slowly over the
central Atlantic. The system is exhibiting a growing CDO feature
with cloud tops to near -70 deg C, along with some convective bands
over the eastern portion of the circulation, where most of the
lightning flashes are currently occurring. The advisory intensity
is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with subjective Dvorak
classifications from both TAFB and SAB and a blend of objective
satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The storm's forward speed is quite slow with a motion estimate of
only 320/3 kt. Steering currents are not strong at this time since
the subtropical ridge to the north of Humberto is quite weak.
Global model forecasts show the ridge strengthening with time and in
a few days the cyclone should move somewhat faster toward the
northwest and turn northward in the vicinity of 70 W longitude. By
the end of the forecast period, after Humberto passes north of the
ridge, the system should begin accelerating northeastward.

Cirrus motions indicate that the vertical wind shear over Humberto
has lessened, and the SHIPS model output does not show the shear
increasing much through 72 hours. Sea surface temperatures are
expected to be very warm along the projected path of the cyclone,
and the system should remain embedded in a moist air mass. The
official forecast continues to call for significant strengthening
during the next few days. This is consistent with the latest
corrected consensus, HCCA, forecast which also shows Humberto
intensifying into a major hurricane this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 22.2N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 22.7N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 23.4N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 24.3N 63.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 25.4N 65.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 32.6N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260240
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0300 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 57.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 57.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.7N 58.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.4N 61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.3N 63.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.4N 65.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 32.6N 69.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 57.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 25 2025

...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 57.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 57.1 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast, and
Humberto is expected to become a hurricane on Friday, and a
major hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 252037
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Thu Sep 25 2025

Humberto continues to gradually gain strength over the central
Atlantic. Deep convection has been increasing over the center, and
the cloud pattern is more symmetric than it was earlier today. This
is an indication that the wind shear around the storm is lessening.
Recent microwave images indicate that an inner core appears to be
forming, and an earlier ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of about 45
kt. Based on the improving satellite presentation, the initial
intensity is increased to 50 kt. This value is also near the
average of the latest satellite intensity estimates. The 34-kt wind
radii have been adjusted based on the ASCAT data.

Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next few days
as the storm moves into a more favorable environment of light winds
aloft and high moisture. Given that Humberto is relatively compact
and an increasingly symmetric system, these conditions should cause
it to become a hurricane on Friday and a major hurricane over the
weekend. Less favorable environmental conditions should cause some
weakening early next week. This prediction remains in line with the
latest HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

The storm has jogged a little to the north today, but the overall
motion is northwestward at 5 kt. Humberto remains embedded in weak
steering currents on the south side of a narrow and weak subtropical
high over the central Atlantic. This pattern should keep the storm
moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest during the next day
or two. After that time, Humberto is expected to become
increasingly steered by a much stronger high over the western
Atlantic, which should cause the storm to accelerate. The NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous one, trending toward
the latest consensus and Google Deep Mind models. This forecast
keeps Humberto over the open central and western subtropical
Atlantic during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 21.9N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 22.3N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 22.5N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 22.7N 59.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 23.0N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 23.6N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 24.6N 64.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 28.0N 68.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 31.6N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252036
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Thu Sep 25 2025

...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 57.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 57.0 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast, and
Humberto is expected to become a hurricane on Friday and a
major hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 252036
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
2100 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 57.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 57.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 56.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.3N 57.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.7N 59.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N 60.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.6N 62.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.6N 64.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.0N 68.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.6N 69.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 251438
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 25 2025

Deep convection has been increasing near and to the east of the
center of Humberto during the past several hours, but the storm
remains asymmetric due to the effects of wind shear and dry air
entertainment. The initial intensity is increased a little to 45
kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite estimates.

The tropical storm is expected to continue to battle shear and dry
air associated with a nearby mid- to upper-level trough for another
day or so. However, by the weekend, the models show the upper-level
wind pattern becoming notably more favorable for strengthening.
Based on the current trends and expected conducive conditions, the
NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward and shows Humberto
becoming a hurricane in a day or so and then rapidly strengthening
to a major hurricane over the weekend. This prediction is roughly
in line with the latest HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

Humberto is currently embedded in weak steering currents on the
south side of a narrow and weak subtropical high over the central
Atlantic. This pattern should keep the storm moving slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest during the next day or two. After that
time, Humberto is expected to become primarily steered by a much
stronger high over the western Atlantic, which should cause the
storm to speed up. The models have trended south and west this
cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in those
directions. This forecast keeps Humberto over the open central
and western subtropical Atlantic during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 21.4N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 21.8N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 22.1N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 22.4N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.8N 60.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.4N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 24.2N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 27.0N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 30.7N 69.7W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 251437
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1500 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 56.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 56.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 56.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.8N 57.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.1N 57.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.4N 58.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.8N 60.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.4N 61.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.2N 64.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 27.0N 67.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.7N 69.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 56.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251437
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 25 2025

...HUMBERTO GAINING STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 56.8W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 56.8 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is
expected to become a hurricane in a day or so and a major hurricane
this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250839
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Thu Sep 25 2025

Humberto is still a shear tropical storm this morning. Deep
convection is wrapped around the eastern side of the circulation
with the low-level center mostly exposed to the west of the coldest
cloud tops. Objective and subjective satellite Dvorak
classifications have held steady this cycle, ranging from 33 to 41
kts. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt based on the
scatterometer data mentioned in the previous discussion.

The estimated motion is northwestward at 9 kt. Humberto is expected
to be steered along the southern and southwestern side of a
subtropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic. The track
forecast becomes more complicated in the next few days due to the
proximity of the tropical storm to 94L, the developing system to the
west. Global models generally show Humberto moving around the
western periphery of the subtropical high by the end of the forecast
period, however there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing
and location at which the storm will make that turn. The GFS and
UKMet show a much faster and farther east track while the ECMWF
predicts a slower and more westward track. The latest official
track forecast is slower and a bit west of the previous prediction,
near the center of the guidance envelope.

Humberto is expected to gradually strengthen during the next couple
of days, despite the strong-to-moderate vertical wind shear. When
the westerly shear relaxes over the storm in 2-3 days, more
signification intensification is expected over the warm ocean
waters. Most model guidance predicts Humberto will reach hurricane
strength over the weekend and become a major hurricane by early next
week. Few changes have been made to the NHC intensity forecast,
which still lies near the FSU Superensemble prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 21.2N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.7N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 22.1N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 22.6N 58.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 23.0N 59.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 23.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 24.3N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 26.7N 66.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 30.6N 69.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250838
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0900 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 56.4W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 56.4W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 56.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.7N 57.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.1N 57.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.6N 58.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 23.0N 59.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.3N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.7N 66.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 30.6N 69.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 56.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250838
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Thu Sep 25 2025

...HUMBERTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 56.4W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 56.4 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is expected over the next several days with a
slower forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250253
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

The cloud pattern of Humberto has changed little in organization
over the past several hours. Some rudimentary convective banding
features are evident but the cold cloud tops are rather fragmented
at this time. Upper-level outflow is being restricted over the
western portion of the circulation, at least partially due to the
outflow from disturbance 94L located near Puerto Rico. The current
intensity estimate is set at 40 kt in agreement with a recently
received scatterometer pass.

The storm center is not yet very well-defined so the initial motion
is a rather uncertain 300/10 kt. Over the next few days, Humberto
should be steered generally west-northwestward to northwestward on
the southwestern side of a subtropical mid-level high pressure area.
The steering scenario for the tropical cyclone will likely become
more complicated in 2-3 days due to the interaction with the
developing system 94L to the west. The official forecast track is
quite similar to the previous one, and roughly in the middle of the
guidance. However, due to the likely complications in the evolution
of the steering flow, there is lower than normal confidence in this
track forecast.

Global models suggest that there will be some relaxation in westerly
vertical wind shear over Humberto in the coming days. This, along
with very warm ocean waters and a moist mid-level air mass, should
lead to strengthening. The system will probably become a hurricane
in a couple of days, and then strengthen into a major hurricane.
The official intensity forecast is in reasonable agreement with the
simple and corrected model consensus, including the latest FSU
Superensemble forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 20.7N 55.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.4N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 21.9N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 22.9N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 23.4N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 24.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 26.3N 66.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 30.1N 68.9W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 55.8W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 55.8 West. Humberto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected over the next several
days with a slower forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250251
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0300 UTC THU SEP 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 55.8W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 55.8W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 55.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.4N 56.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.9N 57.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.9N 58.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.4N 60.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 26.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 30.1N 68.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 100SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 55.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 242035
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

Satellite data indicates that Invest 93L over the central tropical
Atlantic has now developed into Tropical Storm Humberto. Visible
satellite imagery shows that throughout the day, the low-level
center has become well-defined, with persistent and organized deep
convection mainly located over the eastern side of the system.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both
data-T/2.5 35 kt. DPRINT and DMINT Objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 35 kt. Using these data, the
initial intensity is set to 35 kt.

The system is estimated to be moving west-northwestward at 300/13
kt, but this is of low confidence since the center has only recently
formed. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
anticipated through the next several days along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-latitude ridge. Towards the end of the forecast
period, an approaching trough moving offshore the east coast of the
United States will erode the ridge and allow the system to turn more
northward. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the
forward speed and cross-track spread of the system. This is
increasingly apparent beyond day 3 as there are complex steering
components with timing differences in the global models, including
the approaching trough and potential binary interaction with Invest
94L. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids given some
of these uncertainties, and there is lower than normal confidence in
the track forecast.

The storm is within a favorable environment for strengthening with
warm sea surface temperatures near 29C and moist mid-level RH
values. The system will be dealing with some moderate westerly wind
shear for the next day or so that will likely cause an asymmetric
storm structure. EC and GFS SHIPS guidance depict the shear slightly
weakening in the day 2 to 4 time frame, and with increasing
divergence aloft, a slightly greater rate of strengthening is shown
at that time. The latest NHC forecast follows these trends and lies
near the consensus intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 20.1N 54.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 20.9N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 21.6N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 22.0N 57.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 22.5N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 22.9N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 23.6N 60.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 26.0N 64.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 242034
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
2100 UTC WED SEP 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 54.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 54.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 54.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.9N 56.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.6N 57.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.5N 58.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.9N 59.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.6N 60.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N 64.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 54.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

...TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORMS IN CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 54.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 54.9 West. Humberto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected over the next
several days with a slower forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly