Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IMELDA-25
in Bermuda, Bahamas, Cuba

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2025 0 12.4N 118.1W 997 38
0000UTC 03.10.2025 12 12.8N 119.3W 996 39
1200UTC 03.10.2025 24 13.2N 120.7W 997 40
0000UTC 04.10.2025 36 13.8N 122.3W 995 38
1200UTC 04.10.2025 48 14.3N 123.8W 993 39
0000UTC 05.10.2025 60 15.0N 124.7W 992 42
1200UTC 05.10.2025 72 15.6N 124.9W 993 45
0000UTC 06.10.2025 84 16.0N 124.4W 994 38
1200UTC 06.10.2025 96 16.4N 123.7W 997 35
0000UTC 07.10.2025 108 16.6N 123.2W 1000 28
1200UTC 07.10.2025 120 16.7N 122.9W 1003 25
0000UTC 08.10.2025 132 16.4N 122.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 08.10.2025 144 15.3N 122.4W 1006 27
0000UTC 09.10.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N 60.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2025 0 33.0N 60.8W 975 60
0000UTC 03.10.2025 12 32.5N 55.1W 988 50
1200UTC 03.10.2025 24 35.5N 50.4W 985 60
0000UTC 04.10.2025 36 39.0N 49.2W 976 57
1200UTC 04.10.2025 48 41.3N 48.8W 974 53
0000UTC 05.10.2025 60 43.4N 45.2W 982 42
1200UTC 05.10.2025 72 45.6N 40.8W 984 45
0000UTC 06.10.2025 84 47.5N 36.0W 983 50
1200UTC 06.10.2025 96 49.7N 29.8W 991 44
0000UTC 07.10.2025 108 54.7N 19.9W 998 35
1200UTC 07.10.2025 120 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 37.0N 51.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2025 12 37.0N 51.0W 992 61
1200UTC 03.10.2025 24 35.5N 50.4W 985 60
0000UTC 04.10.2025 36 39.0N 49.2W 976 57
1200UTC 04.10.2025 48 41.3N 48.8W 974 53
0000UTC 05.10.2025 60 43.4N 45.2W 982 42
1200UTC 05.10.2025 72 45.6N 40.8W 984 45
0000UTC 06.10.2025 84 47.5N 36.0W 983 50
1200UTC 06.10.2025 96 49.7N 29.8W 991 44
0000UTC 07.10.2025 108 54.7N 19.9W 998 35
1200UTC 07.10.2025 120 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.3N 110.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2025 96 15.3N 110.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 07.10.2025 108 15.5N 111.8W 1002 35
1200UTC 07.10.2025 120 15.9N 112.3W 1002 37
0000UTC 08.10.2025 132 16.4N 113.5W 1001 38
1200UTC 08.10.2025 144 16.9N 114.8W 1000 40
0000UTC 09.10.2025 156 17.8N 116.3W 998 38
1200UTC 09.10.2025 168 18.5N 117.8W 997 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.9N 56.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2025 168 23.7N 57.2W 1010 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 6.7N 15.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2025 168 6.7N 15.1W 1008 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021606


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 021606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.10.2025 12.4N 118.1W MODERATE
00UTC 03.10.2025 12.8N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2025 13.2N 120.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2025 13.8N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2025 14.3N 123.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2025 15.0N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2025 15.6N 124.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2025 16.0N 124.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 16.4N 123.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2025 16.6N 123.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2025 16.7N 122.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2025 16.4N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2025 15.3N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N 60.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.10.2025 33.0N 60.8W STRONG
00UTC 03.10.2025 32.5N 55.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.10.2025 35.5N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2025 39.0N 49.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2025 41.3N 48.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2025 43.4N 45.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2025 45.6N 40.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2025 47.5N 36.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 49.7N 29.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2025 54.7N 19.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2025 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 37.0N 51.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2025 37.0N 51.0W MODERATE
12UTC 03.10.2025 35.5N 50.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2025 39.0N 49.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2025 41.3N 48.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2025 43.4N 45.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2025 45.6N 40.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2025 47.5N 36.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 49.7N 29.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2025 54.7N 19.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2025 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.3N 110.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2025 15.3N 110.9W WEAK
00UTC 07.10.2025 15.5N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2025 15.9N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2025 16.4N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2025 16.9N 114.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2025 17.8N 116.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2025 18.5N 117.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.9N 56.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2025 23.7N 57.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 6.7N 15.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2025 6.7N 15.1W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021606


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 021448
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

Imelda is no longer a tropical cyclone. Visible satellite images and
global model fields indicate that a front extends into the center of
the cyclone from the east-northeast, while another frontal feature
has developed to the south of the cyclone. This is consistent with
overnight microwave data that showed Imelda taking the appearance of
an occluded cyclone, as well as recent satellite trends that show
the remaining convection is mainly focused along these fronts.
Therefore, Imelda is classified as a 65-kt extratropical cyclone
this morning, and this will be the final NHC advisory on the system.

Post-tropical Imelda is racing toward the east-northeast (075/25
kt) away from Bermuda. The cyclone is expected to turn northeastward
on Friday ahead of an amplifying upper-level trough over the
northern Atlantic, then turn back toward the east-northeast by
Sunday within the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in
much better agreement than yesterday, and the NHC forecast lies near
the center of the envelope between the HCCA and TVCA aids.

Baroclinic forcing from the upper trough will likely cause the
cyclone to remain a large, storm-force low through the weekend. Even
though the peak winds are forecast to gradually diminish, a large
area of 34- and 50-kt winds will create hazardous marine conditions
and large swell that will continue to affect an expansive portion of
the western and central Atlantic.

Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusty winds over Bermuda will gradually subside today.

2. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 33.2N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 03/0000Z 34.3N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/1200Z 36.3N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0000Z 38.9N 49.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1200Z 41.7N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0000Z 44.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1200Z 47.1N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1200Z 50.0N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 021446
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

...IMELDA BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 59.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Imelda was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 59.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through tonight. A northeastward motion is then forecast on Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, but
the post-tropical cyclone will remain a large and powerful system
as it moves across the central Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and gale-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda are expected to gradually subside
today.

SURF: Distant swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will
spread toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on
Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 021446
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 59.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 240SE 180SW 270NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 330SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 59.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 60.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 170SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.3N 51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 200SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.9N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 210SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.7N 47.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 220SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 44.6N 44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 210SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 47.1N 40.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 50.0N 30.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 100SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 59.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 021139
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA AS IMELDA MOVES QUICKLY AWAY
FROM THE ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 60.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 60.9 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northeastward
motion is then forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, Imelda will continue moving farther away from Bermuda this
morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Imelda is expected to become an extratropical low
later today, with gradual weakening forecast for the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). The L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda
recently reported a gust of 44 mph (71 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
on Bermuda for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Lingering showers across Bermuda could produce up to an
inch (25 mm) of additional rainfall through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread
toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday
and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 020848
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC THU OCT 02 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 61.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 35SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 220SE 120SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 300SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 61.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.5N 57.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 45NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.0N 52.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.2N 50.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 240SE 210SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 39.8N 48.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 240SE 230SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 42.8N 45.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 230SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 45.8N 41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 49.2N 32.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 110SE 150SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 50.8N 25.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 61.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 020849
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

...IMELDA IS MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 61.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has changed the Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 61.9 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northeastward
motion is then forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the core of Imelda will move farther away from Bermuda
during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Imelda is expected to become an extratropical low later
today, with gradual weakening forecast for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). The elevated station at the National Museum of Bermuda
recently reported sustained winds of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a wind
gust of 70 mph (113 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Lingering showers across Bermuda could produce up to an
inch (25 mm) of additional rainfall through today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding on Bermuda should subside today.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread
toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday
and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 020850
TCDAT4

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

The center of Imelda passed just south of Bermuda a few hours ago,
with sustained hurricane force winds reported at one of the
elevated stations there. Since then, the cyclone has continued to
produce a central convective feature, and radar data from Bermuda
shows fragments of spiral bands to the north of the center.
Overall, it appears that Imelda is continuing through extratropical
transition, but the process is not finished yet. Satellite
intensity estimates have decreased, and based on these the initial
intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 75 kt.

The initial motion remains quickly east-northeastward or 075/26 kt.
This general motion is likely to continue for the next 12-24 h.
After that, the cyclone should phase with a digging mid-latitude
trough that is currently north of the system, with this trough
eventually becoming a deep-layer cut-off low over Imelda's
low-level center. This evolution should cause the surface center to
move generally northeastward from 24-72 h with a decrease in
forward speed. An east-northeastward motion is expected by the end
of the forecast period as the cyclone gets more embedded in the
mid-latitude flow. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track through 72 h, and then is slower than and south of
the previous track at 96 and 120 h.

Current trends and global model guidance suggest that Imelda should
complete extratropical transition later today. Phasing with the
above-mentioned mid-latitude trough should help the system maintain
its intensity for the next 3-4 days, and the intensity forecast has
been nudged upward a bit to match a blend of the global model wind
forecasts. After 96 h, the global models forecast the system to
weaken quickly as the surface low separates from the upper-level
center, and this is also reflected in the new intensity forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda's core has passed Bermuda, and conditions on the island
are improving. However, tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue for a few more hours.

2. The threat of heavy rainfall on Bermuda has diminished.

3. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 32.8N 61.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 33.5N 57.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/0600Z 35.0N 52.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/1800Z 37.2N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0600Z 39.8N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/1800Z 42.8N 45.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 45.8N 41.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z 49.2N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 50.8N 25.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 020543
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

...IMELDA'S CORE NOW EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA WITH CONDITIONS ON
THE ISLAND EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 63.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 63.5 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northeastward
motion is then forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the core of Imelda will move away from Bermuda during the
next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Imelda is expected to become an extratropical low later
today, with gradual weakening forecast thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). During the past few hours, an elevated observing
site at the National Museum of Bermuda reported sustained winds of
78 mph (125 km/h) and a wind gust of 99 mph (159 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
Several stations on Bermuda reported minimum pressures of 975-977
mb (28.79-28.85 inches) as the center of Imelda passed just south
of the island.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing over Bermuda and expected to
continue for a few more hours.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
is expected through today, which could lead to flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread
toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday
and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 020401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 116.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2025 0 11.9N 116.5W 999 39
1200UTC 02.10.2025 12 12.4N 117.7W 998 37
0000UTC 03.10.2025 24 13.0N 118.8W 998 36
1200UTC 03.10.2025 36 13.4N 120.7W 997 39
0000UTC 04.10.2025 48 13.8N 122.6W 993 39
1200UTC 04.10.2025 60 14.2N 124.4W 992 40
0000UTC 05.10.2025 72 15.0N 125.4W 991 43
1200UTC 05.10.2025 84 15.8N 125.8W 990 46
0000UTC 06.10.2025 96 16.3N 125.6W 993 40
1200UTC 06.10.2025 108 16.7N 125.0W 998 31
0000UTC 07.10.2025 120 17.1N 124.5W 1001 27
1200UTC 07.10.2025 132 17.4N 123.9W 1004 24
0000UTC 08.10.2025 144 17.5N 123.7W 1005 24
1200UTC 08.10.2025 156 16.9N 124.1W 1007 22
0000UTC 09.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 66.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2025 0 31.7N 66.5W 973 68
1200UTC 02.10.2025 12 32.6N 61.4W 982 61
0000UTC 03.10.2025 24 31.6N 57.0W 989 56
1200UTC 03.10.2025 36 31.5N 53.2W 992 53
0000UTC 04.10.2025 48 35.0N 49.2W 990 47
1200UTC 04.10.2025 60 38.7N 49.0W 978 54
0000UTC 05.10.2025 72 41.7N 46.4W 979 46
1200UTC 05.10.2025 84 44.5N 43.1W 975 49
0000UTC 06.10.2025 96 45.9N 39.7W 973 53
1200UTC 06.10.2025 108 48.0N 35.5W 980 48
0000UTC 07.10.2025 120 49.6N 29.3W 990 43
1200UTC 07.10.2025 132 51.4N 19.7W 999 35
0000UTC 08.10.2025 144 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 37.9N 57.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2025 0 37.9N 57.4W 993 48
1200UTC 02.10.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.7N 110.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2025 84 15.7N 110.0W 1004 29
0000UTC 06.10.2025 96 15.5N 110.6W 1002 30
1200UTC 06.10.2025 108 15.8N 111.3W 1002 33
0000UTC 07.10.2025 120 15.3N 111.8W 1000 38
1200UTC 07.10.2025 132 15.2N 112.5W 999 40
0000UTC 08.10.2025 144 15.3N 113.2W 998 41
1200UTC 08.10.2025 156 15.5N 114.4W 997 41
0000UTC 09.10.2025 168 16.2N 115.6W 996 40


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020401


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 020401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 116.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2025 11.9N 116.5W MODERATE
12UTC 02.10.2025 12.4N 117.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2025 13.0N 118.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2025 13.4N 120.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2025 13.8N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2025 14.2N 124.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2025 15.0N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2025 15.8N 125.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2025 16.3N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 16.7N 125.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2025 17.1N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2025 17.4N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2025 17.5N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2025 16.9N 124.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 66.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2025 31.7N 66.5W STRONG
12UTC 02.10.2025 32.6N 61.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2025 31.6N 57.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2025 31.5N 53.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2025 35.0N 49.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2025 38.7N 49.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2025 41.7N 46.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2025 44.5N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2025 45.9N 39.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 48.0N 35.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2025 49.6N 29.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2025 51.4N 19.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2025 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.7N 110.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2025 15.7N 110.0W WEAK
00UTC 06.10.2025 15.5N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 15.8N 111.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2025 15.3N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2025 15.2N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2025 15.3N 113.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2025 15.5N 114.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2025 16.2N 115.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020401


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 020251
TCDAT4

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 01 2025

Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this evening
found that Imelda is likely in the early to mid stages of
extratropical transition. In addition to the aircraft crossing a
baroclinic zone just to the north of the hurricane's core, the winds
have become very asymmetric, with hurricane-force winds around the
western and southeastern sides of the circulation, but much lighter
winds to the northeast. The aircraft also found rising pressure
between fixes, and the earlier eyewall reported from the prior
mission has been reduced to a small fragment on the northwestern
side. Despite the degraded presentation, the 700 mb flight-level
winds were a little higher than the prior mission, peaking at 98 kt
in the southeastern quadrant. While this would normally translate to
a somewhat higher 90 kt maximum sustained wind, these flight-level
winds occurred where Imelda has little in the way of precipitation
according to the Bermuda radar. Thus, the initial intensity will
remain 85 kt for this advisory, using a slightly lower surface wind
reduction.

Aircraft fixes and Bermuda radar imagery indicate that Imelda
continues to accelerate quickly to the east-northeast, with its
estimated motion now at 075/25 kt. This motion will likely take the
hurricane's inner eyewall fragment right over the island of Bermuda
over the next couple of hours. The strongest winds associated with
Imelda are likely to be felt just after the center passes by,
thanks to the increasingly asymmetric wind-field of the hurricane.
In fact, the global and hurricane-regional models show a distinct
sting-jet like signature on the backside that both 18 UTC HAFS-A/B
and the 12 UTC ECMWF show moving directly over Bermuda between now
and the 06 UTC time frame. After passing Bermuda, the global and
regional-hurricane models show the hurricane completing
extratropical transition as the frontal boundary merges in with the
cyclone's core. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than
the prior advisory, but remains in good agreement with the consensus
aids HCCA/IVCN.

After Imelda clears Bermuda and becomes fully extratropical, the
models are in better agreement about the cyclone turning
northeastward by late Thursday or Friday when it fully phases with a
digging shortwave trough located upstream of the system. While
significant model spread persists, the 18 UTC GFS has come into
better agreement with the other global model guidance showing this
phasing solution rather than being left behind the trough. The
latest NHC track forecast this evening is roughly a blend of the
HFIP corrected consensus aid (HCCA) and the faster Google DeepMind
ensemble mean (GDMI).


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda's core is currently near Bermuda and is expected to bring
damaging hurricane-force winds and large and damaging waves to
Bermuda as it moves over the island now into early Thursday.
Significant hurricane-force gusts are likely across Bermuda even
after the center passes.

2. Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across Bermuda tonight
into Thursday.

3. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 32.1N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 32.8N 60.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/0000Z 34.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/1200Z 36.2N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0000Z 38.6N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/1200Z 41.4N 47.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 44.5N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z 49.5N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0000Z 51.2N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 020250
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 01 2025

...IMELDA'S CORE NOW MOVING OVER BERMUDA WHERE HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS, DAMAGING WAVES, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED INTO THE
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 65.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was
located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 65.0 West. Imelda is
moving rapidly toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night.
A northeastward motion is then forecast on Friday and Saturday. On
the forecast track, the core of Imelda will move across Bermuda
over the next few hours overnight, before moving away from the
island during the day.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Imelda is expected to become an extratropical low on
Thursday, with gradual weakening forecast thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). Recently, a weather station located in Sam Hall's Bay
reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) with a gust to 78 mph
(126 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). In
the past hour, An elevated observing site at the National Museum of
Bermuda recently reported a minimum pressure of 976 mb (28.82
inches). The L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda recently
reported a minimum pressure of 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing over Bermuda and expected to
continue through early Thursday. Significant hurricane-force wind
gusts are likely across Bermuda even after the center passes.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
is expected from tonight into Thursday, which could lead to flash
flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread
toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday
and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 020248
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0300 UTC THU OCT 02 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 65.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 35SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 220SE 120SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 65.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 66.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.8N 60.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 45NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...195NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.2N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 180SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.6N 49.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 240SE 230SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.4N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 210SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 44.5N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 200SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 49.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 110SE 150SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 51.2N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 100SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 65.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 012348
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 PM AST Wed Oct 01 2025

...IMELDA CLOSING IN ON BERMUDA WITH HAZARDOUS WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DAMAGING WAVES, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA INTO EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 66.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
by Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.8 North,
longitude 66.4 West. Imelda is moving rapidly toward the
east-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Thursday night. A northeastward motion
is forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the core
of Imelda will be near Bermuda late tonight and move away from the
island during the day.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Imelda
passes close to Bermuda late tonight. Imelda is expected to become
an extratropical low on Thursday, with gradual weakening forecast
thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). An elevated observing site at the National Museum of
Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a
gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force reconnaissance
dropsonde data is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions area already occuring on the island
of Bermuda this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin
there later tonight and early Thursday. Significant hurricane-force
wind gusts are likely across Bermuda even after the center passes.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
is expected from tonight into Thursday, which could lead to flash
flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread
toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday
and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 012045
TCDAT4

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 01 2025

Visible satellite images and scatterometer data show that Imelda is
beginning to interact with a nearby front that is impinging on the
northern portion of the hurricane's circulation. Partial ASCAT-B
and -C passes over Imelda reveal that the large wind field is
becoming asymmetric, with the strongest winds occurring over the
western semicircle of the hurricane. In addition, some structural
changes were reported by the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters on
their final pass through Imelda. The eyewall had taken an elliptical
shape and was open to the northeast, unlike the closed circular
eyewall that was reported earlier this morning. The last center
dropsonde indicated the minimum pressure was still around 966 mb.
Based on their peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 93 kt, the initial
intensity is held at 85 kt. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the storm.

Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are already being
reported on Bermuda. Imelda continues moving east-northwestward (070
deg) at around 19 kt, with the center expected to pass over or just
south of Bermuda and bring hurricane-force conditions to the island
late tonight into early Thursday. Although the system is moving
quickly, the wind field is growing and becoming asymmetric due to
the early stages of extratropical transition. As a result, the
strongest winds may occur early Thursday morning after the center
has passed Bermuda. The GFS and ECMWF indicate some strengthening
could occur in the near term due to baroclinic interaction, and this
is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast.

After Imelda clears Bermuda and becomes fully extratropical, most
models show the cyclone turning northeastward by late Thursday or
Friday within the flow between a deep-layer trough over the western
Atlantic and a narrow subtropical ridge to the east. This portion of
the track forecast remains challenging. There is still significant
model spread, mostly related to whether the cyclone becomes fully
captured by the trough. The GFS remains a major outlier among the
rest of the global guidance, and the updated NHC track forecast
continues to trend closer to a blend of the ECMWF and Google
DeepMind solutions. Beyond 24 h, steady weakening is forecast while
the extratropical low moves deeper into the mid-latitudes and
gradually fills while becoming stretched out along the front.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to bring damaging hurricane-force winds and
large and damaging waves to Bermuda when it passes near or over the
island late tonight into early Thursday. Significant hurricane-force
gusts are likely across Bermuda even after the center passes.

2. Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across Bermuda tonight
into Thursday.

3. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 31.6N 67.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 32.3N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 33.2N 58.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/0600Z 34.8N 53.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1800Z 37.2N 51.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/0600Z 39.5N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 42.4N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z 47.5N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 49.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 012045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 01 2025

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ON BERMUDA AS IMELDA APPROACHES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DAMAGING WAVES, AND
FLASH FLOODING TO BERMUDA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 67.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 67.9 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A
northeastward motion is forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the core of Imelda will be near Bermuda late tonight
and move away from the island by Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Imelda
passes close to Bermuda late tonight. Imelda is expected to become
an extratropical low on Thursday, with gradual weakening forecast
thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). The L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda recently
reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h). An elevated observing
site at the National Museum of Bermuda recently reported a sustained
wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 66 mph (106 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across the
island this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda
tonight and early Thursday. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts
are likely across Bermuda even after the center passes.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
is expected from tonight into Thursday, which could lead to flash
flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread
toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday
and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 012044
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
2100 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 67.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 220SE 100SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 270SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 67.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 69.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.3N 64.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 120SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.2N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 180SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.8N 53.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...110NE 80SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...290NE 210SE 180SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.2N 51.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...320NE 240SE 200SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 39.5N 49.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...280NE 230SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 42.4N 46.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 200SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 47.5N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 180SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 49.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 67.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 011744
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 01 2025

...IMELDA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DAMAGING WAVES,
AND FLASH FLOODING TO BERMUDA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 69.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 69.2 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through late Thursday. A turn toward the northeast is forecast on
Friday and into the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of the
hurricane will be near Bermuda tonight and move away from the island
by Thursday afternoon.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Imelda
passes close to Bermuda tonight. Imelda is then expected to become
an extratropical low on Thursday, with gradual weakening forecast
thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from
the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda tonight and
early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions likely by this
afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
are expected from later today into Thursday, which could lead to
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread
toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday
and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 011455
TCDAT4

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 01 2025

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Imelda this morning
have found that the hurricane is strengthening. They reported a
closed, circular eyewall during their two passes through the storm,
and dropsonde data indicate the central pressure has fallen to
around 966 mb. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds
of 97 kt in the southeastern quadrant of Imelda, which supports
raising the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.

Imelda is moving quickly east-northeastward (065/17 kt) within the
flow ahead of a western Atlantic deep-layer trough. In the near
term, the track models agree that the core of Imelda will move near
or over Bermuda tonight into early Thursday, with conditions there
expected to deteriorate later today. Once Imelda passes Bermuda and
becomes extratropical, the forecast becomes much more uncertain
given the significant spread in the track guidance and ensembles. In
general, most global models show the extratropical low becoming
captured by the upper trough, which results in a northeastward
motion across the north Atlantic through the 5-day period. The
outlying GFS solution shows the trough missing the low, and as a
result the GFS is almost 1500 miles away from the ECMWF at day 5.
Once again, the long-range NHC forecast is weighted more heavily
toward a consensus of the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind solutions.

The improved inner core structure of the hurricane and the potential
for positive trough interaction could support some additional
strengthening before Imelda reaches Bermuda, despite increasing
southwesterly shear expected over the hurricane. This is reflected
in the updated NHC intensity forecast, which lies on the high end of
the guidance envelope. Extratropical transition is now forecast in
24 h, after which some gradual weakening is predicted. However,
Imelda will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone for much of the
forecast period as its wind field expands while the cyclone moves
deeper into the mid-latitudes. As a result, large swell and
dangerous marine and rip current conditions will continue to affect
much of the central and western Atlantic for the next several days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to bring damaging hurricane-force winds and
large and damaging waves to Bermuda when it passes near or over the
island tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to
spread across the region beginning later today.

2. Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across Bermuda later
today into Thursday.

3. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
Coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 31.0N 70.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 31.9N 66.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 32.6N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/0000Z 33.8N 56.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1200Z 35.8N 52.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/0000Z 38.0N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 40.7N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z 45.9N 40.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1200Z 50.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 011454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 01 2025

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IMELDA HAS STRENGTHENED...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DAMAGING WAVES, AND
FLASH FLOODING TO BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 70.4W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 70.4 West. Imelda is
moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to
continue through late Thursday. A turn toward the northeast is
forecast on Friday and into the weekend. On the forecast track, the
core of the hurricane will be near Bermuda this evening and tonight
and move away from the island by Thursday afternoon.

Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before
Imelda passes close to Bermuda tonight. Imelda is then expected to
become an extratropical low on Thursday, with gradual weakening
forecast thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions likely by this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
is expected from later today into Thursday, which could lead to
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 011452
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
1500 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 70.4W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 330SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 70.4W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 71.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 31.9N 66.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 140SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.6N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...260NE 220SE 170SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.8N 56.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 210SE 180SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.8N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...350NE 220SE 180SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 80SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 200SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 40.7N 48.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 220SE 200SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 45.9N 40.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 210SW 190NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 50.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 70.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 011155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 01 2025

...IMELDA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DAMAGING WAVES,
AND FLASH FLOODING TO BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IMELDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 71.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 71.3 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A much faster
east-northeast to northeast motion is expected over the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane will be
near Bermuda this afternoon or evening and move away from the island
by Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Imelda is expected to be stronger, near category 2 strength,
when it passes close to Bermuda late today. Imelda is then expected
to become an extratropical low in a couple of days, with gradual
weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions likely by this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
are expected from later today into Thursday, which could lead to
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda and Humberto are affecting the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 010855
TCDAT4

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Imelda has continued to become better organized overnight with a
more-defined eye and an increasingly symmetric inner core on
satellite imagery. Data from an earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter
mission supported the previous 75-kt assessment with 82-kt
flight-level winds and a central pressure near 976 mb. Since the
aircraft departed, the satellite presentation has continued to
improve, so the initial intensity is set slightly higher at 80 kt.

The hurricane is accelerating towards the east-northeast, with the
latest motion estimated to be 070/17 kt. A faster east-northeast
motion is expected soon in the strong flow ahead of a large-scale
trough over the western Atlantic. The 00 UTC guidance suite did
provide some wrinkles to the forecast, with much of guidance showing
an eastward motion later today as Imelda experiences northerly flow
behind the approaching trough. This nudges the system farther
south, with many aids south of Bermuda now after being more centered
on the island 6h ago. At this point, the core of Bermuda is still
expected to be close to the island late today, and residents should
expect deteriorating conditions this afternoon. Beyond that
point, the guidance spread becomes massive, with the ECMWF and GFS
models about 1600 miles apart at day 5, dependent on whether the
trough eventually picks up the hurricane or not. For now the GFS
looks like an outlier solution so it won't be weighed much in this
forecast, but the new NHC track is slower overall.

Imelda is expected to continue to strengthen and grow in size while
it approaches Bermuda as a category 2 hurricane. After it passes
the islands, shear greatly increases, but Imelda should undergo a
favorable trough interaction, keeping it producing hurricane-force
for a couple more days as a powerful extratropical low. Imelda is
also expected to cause the ongoing high surf and swells to persist
over a large portion of the central and western Atlantic for the
next several days due to the forecast size of the cyclone. The new
intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance, but a bit
lower than the 00 UTC ECMWF model solution.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to bring damaging hurricane-force winds when
it passes near or over Bermuda late this afternoon or evening. A
Hurricane Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across Bermuda later
today into Thursday. Large and damaging waves are also expected on
the island.

3. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much
of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 30.2N 72.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 31.1N 69.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 32.2N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 33.4N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 03/0600Z 35.0N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 03/1800Z 36.7N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0600Z 39.7N 48.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0600Z 44.8N 41.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/0600Z 49.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 010853
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 01 2025

...IMELDA FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DAMAGING
WAVES AND FLASH FLOODING TO BERMUDA LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 72.1W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 72.1 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A much faster
east-northeast to northeast motion is expected over the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane will be
near Bermuda this afternoon or evening and move away from the island
by Thursday afternoon.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Imelda is
expected to be stronger, near category 2 strength, when it passes
close to Bermuda late today. Imelda is then expected to become an
extratropical low in a couple of days, with gradual weakening
thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda by this
evening, with tropical storm conditions likely by this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
are expected from later today into Thursday, which could lead to
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto
are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. east coast.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 010852
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 72.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 330SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 72.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 73.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.1N 69.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 140SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.2N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 230SE 180SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.4N 58.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 230SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 40SE 70SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 230SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.7N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 39.7N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 220SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 44.8N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 49.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 72.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 010545
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 01 2025

...IMELDA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA LATE
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 73.1W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 73.1 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A much faster
east-northeast to northeast motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane
will be near Bermuda this afternoon or evening.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so. Imelda is then expected to become an extratropical low in a
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches)
based on dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda by this
evening, with tropical storm conditions likely by this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
are expected from later today into Thursday, which could lead to
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto
are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. east coast.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 010244
TCDAT4

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Satellite images show that Imelda has developed a ragged large eye
feature with deep convection wrapping around its western side. The
strongest thunderstorms are currently confined to the northwest
quadrant. Despite the structural change, the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters have found that the minimum pressure and maximum winds are
about the same as earlier. Based on that data, the initial
intensity is held at 75 kt. This estimate is notably above the
latest satellite estimates.

Imelda is starting to pick up some forward speed and continues to
bend to the right, with the latest motion estimated to be 070/12 kt.
A much faster east-northeast to northeast motion is expected soon
in the strong flow ahead of a large-scale trough, in which Humberto
is embedded within. This motion should take the core of Imelda near
Bermuda Wednesday evening, but weather conditions there will likely
begin to deteriorate Wednesday afternoon. After that, a turn to
the northeast over the open Atlantic is expected. No significant
changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this one lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Imelda is expected to strengthen overnight and Wednesday as the
hurricane approaches Bermuda. The intensification will likely be
due to a combination of tropical and non-tropical forcing, and it
could become a category 2 hurricane when it is near the island. The
models suggest that Imelda will complete extratropical transition in
about two days when it merges with a mid- to upper-level trough and
the remnants of Humberto. The system is expected to gradually decay
after the transition. Imelda is also expected to significantly grow
in size over the next few days, which will cause the ongoing high
surf and swells to persist over a large portion of the central and
western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to bring damaging hurricane-force winds when
it passes near or over Bermuda Wednesday afternoon or evening. A
Hurricane Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Imelda is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could cause
flash flooding across Bermuda Wednesday into Thursday. Large and
damaging waves are also expected on the island.

3. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much
of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 29.7N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 30.7N 70.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 32.2N 65.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 33.9N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 35.4N 54.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 03/1200Z 37.9N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0000Z 39.9N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0000Z 45.4N 41.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/0000Z 51.6N 30.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 010241
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0300 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 73.9W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 330SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 73.9W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 74.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 30.7N 70.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.2N 65.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 210SE 170SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.9N 60.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.4N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.9N 50.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.9N 48.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 220SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 45.4N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 200SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 51.6N 30.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 73.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 010241
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...IMELDA FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD BERMUDA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE ISLAND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 73.9W
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 73.9 West. Imelda is
moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A much
faster east-northeast to northeast motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane
will be near Bermuda Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so. Imelda is then expected to become an extratropical low
in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda by Wednesday
evening, with tropical storm conditions likely by Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
are expected from Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto
are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. east coast.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 302346
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...IMELDA HEADED TOWARD BERMUDA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 74.9W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 74.9 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east-northeast
to northeast motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the
hurricane will be near Bermuda Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so. Imelda is then expected to become an extratropical low
in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda by Wednesday
evening, with tropical storm conditions likely by Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
are expected from Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto
are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. east coast.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 302039
TCDAT4

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

The hurricane continues to gradually become better organized, with
curved banding features becoming more prominent over the
circulation. Deepest convection is noted over the western
semicircle of the system with tops to near -70 deg C. Upper-level
outflow is fairly well-defined at this time. The advisory
intensity is set at 75 kt which is in line with flight-level wind
observations from the previous Hurricane Hunter mission.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates are a little lower.
Another Air Force Reserve Unit aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Imelda soon to check on the intensity and structure of the tropical
cyclone.

Imelda is moving a little faster toward the east-northeast with a
motion estimate of 060/10 kt. A mid-tropospheric trough near the
U.S. east coast should cause the hurricane to continue to accelerate
east-northeastward over the next couple of days. The forecast track
brings the center of the hurricane near Bermuda in less than 36
hours, with tropical storm conditions expected to reach Bermuda by
tomorrow afternoon. There will likely be some binary interactions
between Imelda and Humberto since the circulations of the two
systems are getting very close together. However, it is difficult
to specify how significantly this interaction will affect
Imelda's track. The official forecast is near the southern edge
of the model guidance suite.

The hurricane is expected to be within an environment of moderate
or stronger vertical wind shear, but in a favorable thermodynamic
environment during the next day or so. An upper-level trough to
the northwest of Imelda could contribute to strengthening due to
baroclinic forcing and upper-level divergence while the system
nears Bermuda. This could result in a fairly potent, if not an
entirely tropical, cyclone passing near the island tomorrow. Later
in the forecast period, the global models show the system merging
with a broad baroclinic zone over the north Atlantic, and the
simulated satellite imagery from these models takes on the
appearance of an extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected bring damaging hurricane-force-winds to
Bermuda when it passes near or over that island by Wednesday
afternoon or evening. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
Bermuda.

2. Imelda is likely to cause large and damaging waves in Bermuda.

3. Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across Bermuda
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much
of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 29.4N 75.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 30.0N 73.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 31.2N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 32.8N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 34.9N 56.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 38.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1800Z 40.4N 49.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1800Z 45.5N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1800Z 52.5N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 302038
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
2100 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 75.5W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 75.5W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 30.0N 73.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.2N 68.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.8N 63.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 200SW 290NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.0N 51.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 230SE 200SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 40.4N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...360NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 45.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 52.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 250SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 75.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 302038
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...IMELDA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 75.5 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally
east-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the
hurricane will approach Bermuda Wednesday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda by Wednesday
evening, with tropical storm conditions likely by Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
are expected from Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto
are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to much of the
U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 301733
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...IMELDA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 75.9W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 75.9 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally
east-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the
hurricane should continue to move away from the Bahamas today, and
will approach Bermuda Wednesday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda by Wednesday
evening, with tropical storm conditions likely by Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
are expected from Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto
are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to much of the
U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 301601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 9.7N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2025 9.7N 113.2W WEAK
00UTC 01.10.2025 10.7N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 32.6N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2025 32.6N 69.6W MODERATE
00UTC 01.10.2025 34.5N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2025 35.6N 68.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2025 33.1N 65.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2025 33.6N 60.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 76.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2025 28.8N 76.9W MODERATE
00UTC 01.10.2025 29.4N 74.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2025 30.3N 71.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2025 33.1N 65.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2025 33.6N 60.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 38.1N 17.0E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2025 37.7N 18.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2025 37.2N 23.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2025 40.2N 24.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.8N 118.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2025 13.6N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2025 13.9N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2025 13.8N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2025 14.3N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2025 14.4N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2025 14.7N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2025 15.6N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 15.1N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2025 15.5N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2025 15.2N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.4N 110.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2025 14.8N 110.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 15.3N 111.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2025 15.8N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2025 15.8N 113.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 11.9N 98.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2025 11.9N 98.4W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301601


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 301601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 9.7N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2025 0 9.7N 113.2W 1009 27
0000UTC 01.10.2025 12 10.7N 113.5W 1008 27
1200UTC 01.10.2025 24 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 32.6N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2025 0 32.6N 69.6W 980 63
0000UTC 01.10.2025 12 34.5N 69.8W 980 52
1200UTC 01.10.2025 24 35.6N 68.2W 980 62
0000UTC 02.10.2025 36 33.1N 65.0W 973 62
1200UTC 02.10.2025 48 33.6N 60.4W 985 65
0000UTC 03.10.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 76.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2025 0 28.8N 76.9W 981 51
0000UTC 01.10.2025 12 29.4N 74.6W 975 51
1200UTC 01.10.2025 24 30.3N 71.0W 972 61
0000UTC 02.10.2025 36 33.1N 65.0W 973 62
1200UTC 02.10.2025 48 33.6N 60.4W 985 65
0000UTC 03.10.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 38.1N 17.0E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2025 36 37.7N 18.5E 1005 31
1200UTC 02.10.2025 48 37.2N 23.0E 1003 32
0000UTC 03.10.2025 60 40.2N 24.2E 997 35
1200UTC 03.10.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.8N 118.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2025 60 13.6N 118.9W 1006 24
1200UTC 03.10.2025 72 13.9N 121.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 04.10.2025 84 13.8N 123.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 04.10.2025 96 14.3N 124.8W 1007 26
0000UTC 05.10.2025 108 14.4N 126.6W 1006 26
1200UTC 05.10.2025 120 14.7N 127.8W 1006 30
0000UTC 06.10.2025 132 15.6N 128.0W 1005 28
1200UTC 06.10.2025 144 15.1N 128.2W 1005 28
0000UTC 07.10.2025 156 15.5N 127.7W 1005 26
1200UTC 07.10.2025 168 15.2N 127.9W 1007 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.4N 110.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2025 132 14.8N 110.7W 1002 28
1200UTC 06.10.2025 144 15.3N 111.4W 1002 27
0000UTC 07.10.2025 156 15.8N 112.3W 1001 32
1200UTC 07.10.2025 168 15.8N 113.6W 1000 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 11.9N 98.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2025 168 11.9N 98.4W 1006 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301601


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 301456
TCDAT4

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Imelda is gradually becoming better organized, with deep convection
increasing near the center and banding features becoming more
evident. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured
flight-level winds that supported hurricane strength, although the
central pressure has not yet fallen very much. The current
intensity is set, perhaps conservatively, at 70 kt.

Imelda is moving northeastward, or around 040/6 kt. A mid-level
trough near the U.S. east coast should cause the hurricane to
accelerate east-northeastward during the next couple of days. This
track will bring the center of the hurricane near Bermuda in 36
hours or so. The official forecast is a bit south of the latest
simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, perhaps
reflecting some binary interaction with the circulation of Humberto
as the pair of tropical cyclones get closer together.

The hurricane is embedded in an environment of moderate
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, but will be moving over
warm waters and within a moist low- to mid-level air mass.
Moreover, upper-level divergence associated a trough to the
northwest of Imelda is likely to produce some positive forcing for
intensification during the next day or so. So the system is likely
to be rather potent while it passes near Bermuda. Later in the
forecast period, the global models show the system merging with a
broad baroclinic zone over the north Atlantic. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the latest correct consensus model
solution.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected bring damaging hurricane-force-winds to
Bermuda when it passed near or over that island by Wednesday
afternoon or evening. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for
Bermuda.

2. Imelda is likely to cause large and damaging waves in Bermuda.

3. Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across Bermuda
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much
of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 29.1N 76.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 29.8N 74.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 31.0N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 32.6N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 34.3N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 36.7N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 03/1200Z 39.3N 50.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z 43.6N 46.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1200Z 50.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 301453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 76.6W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 76.6 West. Imelda is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A generally
east-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the
hurricane should continue to move away from the Bahamas today and be
approaching Bermuda Wednesday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda by Wednesday
evening, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
are expected from Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the surge
occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

For future information on coastal flooding in the U.S., see
statements issued by the National Weather Service.

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto
are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to much of the
U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 301452
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 76.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 100SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 76.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 29.8N 74.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 31.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.6N 65.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 34.3N 60.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 200SW 290NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.7N 53.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 230SE 200SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 39.3N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...360NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 43.6N 46.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 50.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 250SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 301156
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...IMELDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Hurricane Warning could be required later today for Bermuda.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.0 North,
longitude 76.9 West. Imelda is moving toward the northeast near 7
mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected through today,
followed by a turn towards the east-northeast at a faster forward
speed by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of the system
should move away from the Bahamas today and quickly be approaching
Bermuda late on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local
maxima of 4 inches are expected through tonight across coastal
sections of southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in
isolated flash and urban flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach
the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto
are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to much of the
U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 300859
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Deep convection has redeveloped on the western side of Imelda
during the past several hours, though a fair portion of the
circulation has been overtaken by dry air aloft. The last reports
overnight from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the pressure had fallen again to 983 mb, with some
increase in flight-level winds as they exited in the western
quadrant. Given the improved organization on satellite since the
plane left, I'm going to nudge the maximum winds up to 60 kt on
this advisory, and another Hurricane Hunter should be in the area
this morning.

Imelda has taken the long-awaited turn away from the mainland, now
estimated at 035/7 kt. This general motion is expected today,
followed by a faster motion towards the east-northeast primarily
due to increasing mid-latitude southwesterly flow. There remains
some speed differences in the models, but it is notable that all of
the guidance is near Bermuda between 36-48 h. The new forecast is
a touch south of the previous one, perhaps reflecting some binary
steering influences from Humberto as the pair of tropical cyclones
get closer together.

The environment around Imelda is a complicated one, with lots of
shear and dry air in the vicinity while the system remains over
warm waters. A recent AMSR pass also shows better low-level
structure, so intensification is forecast today. Imelda should
experience a favorable trough interaction by Wednesday, forcing an
increase in the maximum winds as Imelda undergoes a protracted
extratropical transition with lots of upper divergence and
convection. Every model forecasts a strong sting jet to form on
the south and west side of the cyclone on Wednesday during the
later stages of the transition. The new forecast is near a mean of
the global and regional hurricane models, showing a potent system
near Bermuda. Imelda probably won't have a conventional hurricane
structure near that island, but there is a significant risk of high
winds due to the hybrid tropical cyclone structure expected then.
Steady weakening is anticipated by late week after the system
passes Bermuda.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to intensify into a hurricane later today
with the cyclone approaching Bermuda during the day Wednesday as a
hurricane. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the island of Bermuda
due to the expected onset of tropical storm conditions beginning
Wednesday afternoon.

2. Locally heavy rainfall across coastal sections of southeast
North Carolina could cause isolated flash and urban flooding
through tonight. As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50
to 100 mm – of rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

3. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much
of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 28.8N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 29.3N 75.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 30.3N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 31.6N 68.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 32.8N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 34.4N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0600Z 36.6N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z 41.5N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0600Z 48.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300858
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...IMELDA LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE NEAR BERMUDA LATE ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 755 MI...1210 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Hurricane Warning could be required later today for Bermuda.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 76.8 West. Imelda is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general
motion is expected today, followed by a turn towards the east-
northeast at a faster forward speed by tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of the system should move away from the Bahamas
today and quickly be approaching Bermuda late on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Imelda should become a hurricane later today, with further
strengthening anticipated on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local
maxima of 4 inches are expected through tonight across coastal
sections of southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in
isolated flash and urban flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach
the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to
much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 300858
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 76.8W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 100SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 76.8W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.3N 75.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 30.3N 72.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.6N 68.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.8N 63.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...190NE 210SE 160SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.4N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 230SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.6N 51.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...360NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 41.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 48.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 250SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 76.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300547
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...IMELDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 77.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 77.2 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected later today followed by a turn toward the
east-northeast at a faster forward speed by tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of the system should move away from the
northwestern Bahamas overnight and away from the southeastern
United States today. The center should approach Bermuda on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and
Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local
maxima of 4 inches are expected through tonight across coastal
sections of southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in
isolated flash and urban flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach
the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to
much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 300248
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Imelda has lost some organization
since the last advisory. The aircraft data shows a broad center
with a radius of maximum winds of at least 35 n mi, and the
satellite imagery currently shows no organized convection near the
aircraft-reported center. In addition, satellite fixes from TAFB
and SAB were well to the northeast of the aircraft position,
suggesting the vortex has a significant vertical tilt. Despite
the ragged structure, the aircraft-reported winds support keeping
an initial intensity of 55 kt.

The initial motion is now 010/7 kt. A turn toward the northeast is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and
a faster forward speed. This change is due partly to Hurricane
Humberto eroding the steering influence of a subtropical ridge east
of Bermuda, and partly due to a deep-layer trough that is digging
southward to the north and northwest of Imelda. The track guidance
overall is a bit slower than earlier, and based on this the new
forecast track is a little slower than the previous track. The new
forecast track indicates that tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on the island of Bermuda in 36-48 h.

Imelda is currently in an upper-level wind environment that has
moderate shear, but is strongly divergent, and this is forecast to
continue for the next 36-48 h. This should allow some
strengthening. However, the current state of the storm is not
conducive, and thus the new intensity forecast calls for slower
strengthening than the previous forecast. In 48-60 h, the shear
increases, and interaction with the deep-layer trough will likely
start the extratropical transition process. This should be complete
by 72 h. While there may be "sting jet" winds during the transition
as mentioned in the previous discussion, the guidance is in good
agreement that the system should steadily decay after the transition
is complete. Overall, the new intensity forecast is a little weaker
compared to the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to intensify into a hurricane Tuesday or
Tuesday night with the cyclone approaching Bermuda during the day
Wednesday as a hurricane. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
island of Bermuda due to the expected onset of tropical storm
conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon.

2. Locally heavy rainfall across coastal sections of southeast
North Carolina could cause isolated flash and urban flooding
through tonight. As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50
to 100 mm – of rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

3. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much
of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 28.4N 77.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 29.2N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 30.1N 74.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 31.1N 70.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 32.4N 66.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 33.8N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 35.2N 55.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0000Z 39.4N 50.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z 43.1N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...IMELDA MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 77.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 77.2 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the
east-northeast at a faster forward speed on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system should move away from
the northwestern Bahamas tonight and away from the southeastern
United States on Tuesday. The center should approach Bermuda on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and
Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday afternoon.

Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible over portions of
the extreme northwestern Bahamas during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local
maxima of 4 inches are expected through tonight across coastal
sections of southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in
isolated flash and urban flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach
the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to
much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 300243
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0300 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 77.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 77.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.2N 76.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...135NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.1N 74.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 31.1N 70.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 65SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.4N 66.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 85SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.8N 60.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 160SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.2N 55.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 75SE 75SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 210SW 235NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 39.4N 50.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 70SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 190SW 220NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 43.1N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 170SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 77.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 292351
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...IMELDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW MORNING...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE ABACOS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 77.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Extreme Northwestern Bahamas, including Great Abaco, Grand Bahama
Island and the surrounding keys.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this for the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 77.3 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general
northward motion is expected to continue tonight. On Tuesday, Imelda
is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast and accelerate. On
the forecast track, the center of the system should move away from
the northwestern Bahamas later this evening and then turn
east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. but
approaching the island of Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and
Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A combination of Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data and private weather station data indicate
that tropical-storm conditions are still occurring on Great Abaco
and the adjacent islands.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the extreme
northwestern Bahamas and should continue for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the northwest Bahamas through
tonight. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4
inches are expected through tonight across northeast Florida,
coastal South Carolina, and coastal sections of southeast North
Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to
much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 292053
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Since the prior advisory, Imelda's structure on satellite imagery
continues to improve. Curved bands are now wrapping around the
western side of the tropical storm's circulation, and the last few
fixes from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters did show
enhanced winds wrapping around the western side, becoming more
symmetric, though some northward tilt with height was still
persisting on the last Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) swath from the
NOAA-P3 aircraft. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to
gradually rise since that time, so the initial intensity is being
raised to 55 kt this advisory, in best agreement with the SAB
subjective Dvorak fix of T3.5/55-kt and the latest SATCON intensity
estimate of 54 kt.

Imelda continues to move northward, estimated at 360/8 kt. This
motion should continue through tonight, but as Humberto erodes the
steering influence of a subtropical ridge east of Bermuda, the
cyclone is expected to make a sharp turn to the east-northeast as
the storm steering becomes dominated by the deep-layer trough that
is digging southward upstream of Imelda. The latest track guidance
trajectory is quite similar to the prior cycle, though it has once
again shifted a bit faster beyond 36 h. There also remains a
substantial amount of along-track spread in both the deterministic
and ensemble guidance this afternoon. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the prior cycle, once again attempting to blend
the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). Based on the
forecast track, tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on
the Island of Bermuda in about 48 h, and in response, the Bermuda
Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island this
advisory.

Further intensification is expected over the next several days as
Imelda remains in a low to moderate vertical wind shear environment
along with sufficient mid-level moisture and warm sea-surface
temperatures above 28 C. In 48-60 h, the shear starts quickly
increasing, but a favorable trough interaction may temper this
negative factor initially. This interaction may enhance the winds
along the cyclone's western flank, as seen in the most recent set of
hurricane-regional model runs. These enhanced winds may then evolve
into a "sting jet" like feature as the system becomes extratropical
in the 60-72 h time frame. The exact timing of this transition
remains difficult to forecast, since the cyclone will still be under
fairly warm SSTs at 60-72 h. The official intensity forecast is on
the high side of the guidance envelope, but near the HCCA consensus
aid.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday with
the cyclone approaching Bermuda during the day Wednesday as a
hurricane. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the island of
Bermuda due to the expected onset of tropical storm conditions
beginning Wednesday afternoon.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue for another
few hours on Great Abaco and Grand Bahama island in the northwestern
Bahamas.

2. Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Imelda will continue to
impact the Bahamas through tonight, which may produce flash and
urban flooding. Locally heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas
could cause isolated flash and urban flooding through tonight.

3. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much
of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 27.7N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 28.4N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 29.3N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 30.4N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 31.7N 67.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 33.3N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 35.0N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1800Z 39.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z 43.7N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 292048
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...IMELDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW MORNING...
...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR ISLAND OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Bermuda.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas except for Grand Bahama and
Great Abaco Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Extreme Northwestern Bahamas, including Great Abaco, Grand Bahama
Island and the surrounding keys.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this for the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 77.3 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general
northward motion is expected to continue tonight. On Tuesday, Imelda
is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast and accelerate. On
the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to start
moving away from the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and then
turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. but
approaching the island of Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecasted over the
next several days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane on
Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the extreme
northwestern Bahamas and should continue through tonight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the northwest Bahamas through
tonight. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4
inches are expected through tonight across northeast Florida,
coastal South Carolina, and coastal sections of southeast North
Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to
much of the east coast of the U.S.. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 292046
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
2100 UTC MON SEP 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 77.3W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 40SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 77.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.4N 76.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...135NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.3N 75.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 30.4N 72.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 55SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 190SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.7N 67.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 65SE 85SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 33.3N 62.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 160SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 35.0N 56.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 75SE 75SW 65NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 210SW 235NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 39.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 70SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 210SW 220NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 43.7N 47.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 170SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 77.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291742
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...IMELDA STARTING TO MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 77.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, the
Abacos, Grand Bahama Island and the surrounding keys.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 12
hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Imelda.
Hurricane watches could be required for the island as soon as this
afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
27.2 North, longitude 77.3 West. Imelda is moving toward the north
near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general northward motion is expected to
continue today. On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to
the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of the system
is expected to start moving away from the northwestern Bahamas this
afternoon and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the
southeastern U.S. but approach the island of Bermuda by the middle
part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecasted over the next several days,
and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reconnaissance
dropsonde data is is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of
the northwestern Bahamas and should continue through the afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce total
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across the northwest Bahamas through
Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban
flooding.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4
inches are expected through Tuesday across northeast Florida,
coastal South Carolina, and coastal sections of southeast North
Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and will spread to much of the
east coast of the U.S. early this week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 291459
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Imelda is strengthening this morning. We have had plenty of data
from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters, and both
of their observations show that the tropical storm is becoming
better organized. This matches the improving structure on satellite
which shows a bursting central dense overcast. However, Tail Doppler
Radar (TDR) analysis still shows some modest tilt north with height
between the 1 km and 5 km centers. The peak 750 mb flight level
winds from the NOAA-P3 was up to 59 kt to the northeast of the
center, and the most recent dropsonde from the C-130 center fix was
990 mb with 20 kt of wind. Thus, the initial intensity for Imelda
has been raised to 50 kt this advisory, with a minimum pressure of
988 mb. The northwest Bahamas continue to get tropical storm
conditions, and there was a recent wind gust to 72 kt at Treasure
Cay.

The tropical storm continues to move northward at about 7 kt. This
motion is forecast to continue today due to steering along the
western side of the subtropical ridge and eastern side of a mid to
upper-level trough located over the southeastern U.S. The steering
from the subtropical ridge is about to become interrupted by
Hurricane Humberto's large circulation as the upstream trough starts
to dig in behind Imelda. The combination of these changes will cause
the tropical cyclone's track to shift abruptly east-northeastward as
it accelerates. The latest track guidance is fairly similar to the
previous cycle, though there remains a substantial amount of
along-track spread over the 36-60 h period, where the ECMWF is on
the slow end of the guidance envelope, and the GFS and Google
DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) are on the faster end. The latest NHC
track forecast is along the prior forecast track, but a little
faster after 36 h, blending the HCCA and GDMI track guidance. On the
current forecast track, the center of Imelda is forecast to pass
near Bermuda in about 60-h, though the exact timing of this remains
low confidence.

Evidence from both the aircraft and satellite observations show that
Imelda is beginning to develop an inner core, and further
intensification is expected in a low to moderate vertical wind shear
environment along with sufficient mid-level moisture and plenty warm
sea-surface temperatures. In 48-60 h, the shear begins to increase
dramatically and the storm could pass near the cold wake of
Humberto. However, Imelda is also likely to get a intensity boost
from a favorable trough interaction, which could enhance the winds
along the cyclone's northwestern flank, and a higher 85 kt peak is
now shown during this time. This enhancement could evolve into a
"sting jet" like feature as the system becomes extratropical. The
timing of this transition remains difficult to determine, since the
ECMWF forecast is much slower and further south, keeping the cyclone
over warmer SSTs. My best guess is that this process will be
complete between the 72 to 96 h forecast points. The official
forecast remains at the higher end of the model guidance, but is
pretty close to the HCCA consensus aid.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to continue to bring tropical storm conditions
to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today.

2. Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Imelda will continue to
impact the Bahamas through Tuesday, which will likely produce flash
and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas
could cause isolated flash and urban flooding through Tuesday.

3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Imelda as a
Hurricane Watch could be required this afternoon.

4. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much
of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 26.9N 77.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 28.0N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 29.0N 75.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 29.7N 73.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 30.8N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 32.3N 65.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 33.7N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 38.0N 53.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z 43.0N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...IMELDA STRENGTHENING...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR IMELDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 77.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, the
Abacos, Grand Bahama Island and the surrounding keys.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 12
hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Imelda.
Hurricane watches could be required for the island as soon as this
afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located by NOAA and Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
26.9 North, longitude 77.1 West. Imelda is moving toward the north
near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general northward motion is expected to
continue today. On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to
the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of the system
is expected to start moving away from the northwestern Bahamas today
and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern
U.S. by the middle part of this week, but approaching the island of
Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Imelda
is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. This morning, a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h)
was reported at Little Hog Cay, in North Abacos, Bahamas. A wind
gust of 83 mph (134 km/h) was also recently reported in Treasure
Cay, Bahamas.

The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reconnaissance
dropsonde data is is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of
the northwestern Bahamas and should continue through today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce total
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across the northwest Bahamas through
Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban
flooding.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4
inches are expected through Tuesday across northeast Florida,
coastal South Carolina, and coastal sections of southeast North
Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and will spread to much of the
east coast of the U.S. early this week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 291453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
1500 UTC MON SEP 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 77.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 40SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 77.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 75.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 29.7N 73.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 30.8N 70.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 65SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.3N 65.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 75SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 160SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.7N 60.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 50SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 85SE 75SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 240SE 180SW 280NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 38.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...320NE 230SE 210SW 250NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 43.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...230NE 180SE 180SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 77.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291158
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...IMELDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD AND A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, the
Abacos, Grand Bahama Island and the surrounding keys.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 12
hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Imelda.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located by NOAA and Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
26.3 North, longitude 77.0 West. Imelda is moving toward the north
near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a generally northward motion is expected
to continue today. On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to
the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of the system
is expected to start moving away from the northwestern Bahamas today
and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern
U.S. by the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast and Imelda could
become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by NOAA and Air Force
Reconnaissance dropsonde data is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of
the northwestern Bahamas and should continue through today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across eastern Cuba and 4 to 8 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4
inches are expected through Tuesday across northeast Florida,
coastal South Carolina, and coastal sections of southeast North
Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches -- 50 to 100 mm -- of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and will spread to much of the
east coast of the U.S. early this week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 290856
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Imelda continues to slowly become better organized. Earlier
aircraft data indicated that the pressure has fallen to 996 mb, and
satellite imagery shows persistent convection near and north of the
center. The initial intensity is set to 40 kt with numerous 35 kt
wind vectors on the evening scatterometer pass and higher Dvorak
estimates.

The storm is progressing northward at about 7 kt. This motion is
forecast to continue today due to steering along the western side
of the subtropical ridge. Humberto is forecast to erode the ridge
by Tuesday, causing an abrupt turn of Imelda to the east-northeast
with some acceleration as the cyclone encounters faster mid-
latitude flow. There is increasing confidence in the storm staying
well offshore of the southeastern United States coast. The
latest track guidance is similar to the previous cycle, although
faster at the end, and remains close to Bermuda. The medium range
forecast beyond Bermuda is quite uncertain with a complicated flow
pattern due to a digging north Atlantic trough and
then-extratropical Humberto interactions.

Imelda is forecast to gradually strengthen within an environment of
moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, warm ocean waters
and within a fairly moist mid-level air mass for the next couple of
days. Thereafter, an upper-level trough will help to initiate
extratropical transition, and some of the models are showing this
as a favorable trough interaction, causing a larger and stronger
cyclone. The GFS and ECMWF models are also showing a sting jet
developing as well about the time that Imelda is near Bermuda, so
that situation will have to be watched closely. The official
forecast remains at the higher end of the model guidance. Most of
the global models are showing a faster extratropical transition
after Imelda moves past Bermuda, and that is indicated in the new
NHC forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to continue to bring tropical storm conditions
to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today.

2. Rainfall associated with Imelda will continue to impact eastern
Cuba and the Bahamas through Tuesday, which will likely produce
flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher
terrain. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas could cause
isolated flash and urban flooding through Tuesday.

3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Imelda as a
Hurricane Watch could be required late today.

4. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along the
east coast of Florida and the Georgia coast today. These conditions
are expected to spread northward along much of the east coast of the
United States early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 25.5N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 26.7N 77.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 28.1N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 28.9N 75.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 29.9N 72.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 31.1N 68.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 32.4N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 35.0N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z 39.5N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290852
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...IMELDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for all of the Central Bahamas and for portions of the
Northwestern Bahamas, including New Providence, Berry Islands and
Andros Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, the
Abacos, Grand Bahama Island and the surrounding keys.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 12
hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Imelda.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 77.1 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a generally
northward motion is expected to continue today. On Tuesday, Imelda
is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move across the
northwestern Bahamas today and then turn east-northeastward, moving
away from the southeastern U.S. by the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast and Imelda could become a
hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of
the northwestern Bahamas and should continue through today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across eastern Cuba and 4 to 8 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4
inches are expected through Tuesday across northeast Florida,
coastal South Carolina, and coastal sections of southeast North
Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches -- 50 to 100 mm -- of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and will spread to much of the
east coast of the U.S. early this week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 290851
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC MON SEP 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 77.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 77.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.7N 77.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.1N 76.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.9N 75.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 29.9N 72.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.1N 68.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 130SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.4N 63.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 55SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...280NE 250SE 160SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 35.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...360NE 200SE 180SW 300NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 39.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 200SE 180SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 77.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290550
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...IMELDA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 77.1W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 25.1 North, longitude 77.1 West. Imelda is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a generally northward motion is
expected to continue today. On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn
sharply to the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of
the system is expected to move across the northwestern Bahamas today
and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern
U.S. by the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Imelda is
forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and should continue through today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across eastern Cuba and 3 to 6 inches
across the northwestern Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4
inches are expected through Tuesday across northeast Florida,
coastal South Carolina, and coastal sections of southeast North
Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding.

As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches -- 50 to 100 mm -- of
rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and will spread to much of the
east coast of the U.S. early this week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 290237
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Imelda's cloud pattern has shown little change since earlier today.
There is a prominent band of deep convection over the eastern
portion of the circulation. Some deep convection is developing
near/over the estimated center position. Flight-level
winds observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating the storm indicate that the maximum winds
remain near 35 kt, although the recent increase of central
convection suggests some strengthening may soon occur.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters show that the motion has
been mainly northward with the initial motion estimate remaining
about 360/8 kt. Imelda should continue this generally northward
track through tomorrow while moving on the western side of a
mid-level ridge. Then, a trough over the southeastern U.S. is
expected to cause the cyclone to turn sharply east-northeastward.
This track should keep the center of Imelda offshore of the
southeastern U.S. coast. Later in the forecast period, the system
should move mainly east-northeastward over the subtropical
Atlantic, and pass near Bermuda in several days. The official
track forecast is similar to the one from the previous
advisory, and close to the model consensus.

Imelda is expected to remain in an environment of moderate
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear for the next few days. The
system will be moving over warm ocean waters of around 29 deg C and
within a fairly moist mid-level air mass. Given the mainly
conducive environmental conditions, the cyclone is likely to
strengthen into a hurricane within the next 1-2 days, with
additional intensification likely thereafter. The official
intensity forecast is at the higher end of the model guidance. By
the end of the forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from
the global models suggest the cloud pattern of an extratropical
cyclone, and the official forecast shows extratropical transition
around that time.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to continue to bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
through Monday.

2. Rainfall associated with Imelda will continue to impact eastern
Cuba and the Bahamas through Tuesday, which will likely produce
flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher
terrain. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas could cause
isolated flash and urban flooding through Tuesday.

3. The risk of significant wind impacts along the southeastern
United States coast is decreasing, but interests in that area should
continue to monitor the latest forecast updates.

4. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along the
east coast of Florida and the Georgia coast through Monday. These
conditions are expected to spread northward along much of the east
coast of the United States early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 25.0N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 26.3N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 27.9N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 28.8N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 29.4N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 30.2N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 31.2N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 33.4N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 36.5N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...IMELDA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 77.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 77.1 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a generally
northward motion is expected to continue through Monday. On
Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Monday and
then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S.
by the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Imelda is
forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and should continue through Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across eastern Cuba and 4 to 8 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6
inches are expected through Tuesday across coastal South Carolina
into southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in
isolated flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and
spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 290235
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 77.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 77.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.3N 77.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.9N 77.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 76.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 29.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 30.2N 72.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 65SE 55SW 55NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 31.2N 68.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 75SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 33.4N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 85SE 80SW 75NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 180SW 220NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 36.5N 56.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...330NE 200SE 160SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 77.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 282356
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...IMELDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 77.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 77.1 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a faster northward
motion is expected tonight continuing through Monday. On Tuesday,
Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Monday and then
turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by
the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and should continue through Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across eastern Cuba and 4 to 8 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also
possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6
inches are expected through Tuesday across coastal South Carolina
into southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with this system, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and
spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 282355
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...IMELDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 77.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 77.1 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a faster northward
motion is expected tonight continuing through Monday. On Tuesday,
Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Monday and then
turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by
the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and should continue through Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across eastern Cuba and 4 to 8 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also
possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6
inches are expected through Tuesday across coastal South Carolina
into southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with this system, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and
spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 282353
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...IMELDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 77.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 77.1 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a faster northward
motion is expected tonight continuing through Monday. On Tuesday,
Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Monday and then
turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by
the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and should continue through Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across eastern Cuba and 4 to 8 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also
possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6
inches are expected through Tuesday across coastal South Carolina
into southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with this system, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and
spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 282053
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

In the last outbound northeast leg, the Air Force reconnaissance
flying through the system found 850 mb flight level winds of 43 kt,
high enough to support upgrading Tropical Depression 9 to Tropical
Storm Imelda at the 18 UTC intermediate advisory. On that last fix,
a dropsonde launched in the center had a 1000 mb pressure, but with
a 34 kt surface wind gust that could be related to a nearby
convective feature, and a 998 mb pressure is used as the minimum
pressure. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt this advisory,
which is on the low side of the mean of the satellite estimates,
which range from 35-45 kt.

A more established motion with Imelda appears to finally be occuring
this afternoon, due northward at 360/8 kt. A general northward
motion is expected to continue over the next day or so as southerly
steering persists from both an upper trough over the southeastern
United States and the subtropical ridge centered just east of
Bermuda. After that period of time, the subtropical ridge's steering
influence decreases as Hurricane Humberto's larger outer circulation
creates a large weakness. The end result of this pattern change is
that Imelda is now forecast to turn sharply east-northeastward into
this weakness, starting on Tuesday and continuing through the
remainder of the forecast period, following behind Humberto. The
track guidance this cycle has finally started to stabilize near the
previous forecast track, though is still a tick faster than the
previous forecast cycle, and quite a bit of along-track spread
remains in the 4-5 day time frame. The NHC track forecast lies in
between the GFS and ECMWF track solutions, closest to but not quite
as fast as the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).

Imelda's structure is gradually becoming better organized, with more
curvature in the convective bands on its eastern side, though the
earlier burst closer to the center has waned. Assuming a better
developed core forms soon, low to moderate vertical wind shear
between 15-20 kt, warm 28-30 C sea-surface temperatures, and
sufficient mid-level moisture should promote steady intensification
over the next 2-3 days. In 3-4 days, the cyclone is expected to find
itself in the right entrance region of an intensifying upper-level
jet, and the enhanced upper-level divergence in that time may help
support additional intensification even as the shear begins to
increase at this period. After the system passes Bermuda, a strong
baroclinic zone is expected to interact with the system, resulting
in extratropical transition by day 5 as it gets tangled up with a
frontal boundary. However, as stressed previously, this is a low
confidence forecast at long range given the recent large track
changes. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the 12 UTC ECMWF
still suggests Imelda may produce significant convective bursts
while still over warm ocean waters in the day 4-5 forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
through Monday.

2. Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Imelda will continue to
impact eastern Cuba and the Bahamas through Tuesday, which will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in
the higher terrain. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas
could cause isolated flash, urban, and river flooding through
Tuesday.

3. The risk of significant wind impacts along the southeastern
United States coast is decreasing, but interests in that area should
continue to monitor the latest forecast updates.

4. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected
to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along the
east coast of Florida and the Georgia coast through Monday. These
conditions are expected to spread northward along much of the east
coast of the United States early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 24.2N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 25.5N 77.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 27.2N 77.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 28.4N 77.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 29.2N 75.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 29.8N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 30.7N 70.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 31.8N 63.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 33.5N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 282048
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...IMELDA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ONGOING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 77.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for the east coast of
Florida from Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia
County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 77.3 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and faster northward
motion is expected tonight continuing through Monday. On Tuesday,
Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and tonight and
then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S.
by the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Imelda is
forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Recently, a WeatherSTEM station observed sustained
wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) at Blue
Lagoon Island just northeast of Nassau, Bahamas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and should continue through Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across eastern Cuba and 4 to 8 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6
inches are expected through Tuesday across coastal South Carolina
into southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with this system, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and
spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 282045
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
2100 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 77.3W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 77.3W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.5N 77.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.2N 77.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.4N 77.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.2N 75.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 29.8N 73.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 65SE 55SW 55NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 30.7N 70.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 75SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.8N 63.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 85SE 80SW 75NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 180SW 220NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 33.5N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...330NE 200SE 160SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 77.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 281749
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located by Air Force reconnaissance data near latitude 23.9 North,
longitude 77.3 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A faster motion to the north is expected later today and
continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the
system is expected to move across the central and northwestern
Bahamas this afternoon and tonight and then turn east-northeastward,
moving away from the southeastern U.S. by the middle part of this
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the central Bahamas
and are expected in the northwestern Bahamas later this afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
east coast of Florida on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 2 to 6 inches across eastern Cuba and 6 to 12 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of
7 inches are expected into Wednesday morning across portions of the
coastal Carolinas. This rainfall could result in flash, urban, and
isolated, minor river flooding. Changes in the forecast track could
result in further adjustments to these rainfall totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with this system, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and
spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 281600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2025

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 63.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2025 24.2N 63.9W INTENSE
00UTC 29.09.2025 25.8N 65.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2025 27.5N 67.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2025 29.7N 68.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.09.2025 32.6N 70.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2025 34.7N 69.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2025 35.8N 68.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2025 35.6N 67.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2025 34.7N 63.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2025 33.8N 60.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2025 35.5N 58.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2025 37.3N 57.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2025 40.0N 54.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2025 41.8N 50.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2025 45.4N 41.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 125.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2025 19.5N 125.6W MODERATE
00UTC 29.09.2025 20.8N 125.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2025 21.3N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2025 21.5N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2025 21.7N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2025 22.0N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2025 22.5N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 77.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2025 23.1N 77.4W WEAK
00UTC 29.09.2025 24.3N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2025 26.6N 77.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2025 28.3N 77.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2025 29.1N 77.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2025 29.4N 75.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2025 30.3N 72.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2025 35.6N 67.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 20.7N 93.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2025 20.7N 93.3W WEAK
00UTC 04.10.2025 21.1N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2025 22.3N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2025 22.8N 92.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2025 24.4N 92.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281600


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 281451
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Structurally, the depression continues to gradually become better
organized, with an attempt at more bursting convection closer to the
estimated center. However, recent observations from the ongoing Air
Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft mission have been rather
underwhelming, which still shows a broad wind field and a peak
850-mb wind of only 37 kt. Based on this information, the system
will remain a depression for this advisory with maximum sustained
wind of 30 kt, which is a little under the satellite-based
intensity estimates.

The depression has not really accelerated much yet this morning, and
it appears to be moving slowly northward at 350/6 kt. A general
north-northwest to northward motion is expected to continue for the
next 24-36 hours as southerly steering persists from both an upper
trough over the southeastern United States and the subtropical ridge
centered just east of Bermuda. After that period of time, the
subtropical ridge's steering influence decreases as Hurricane
Humberto's larger outer circulation creates a large weakness. Given
the slow motion of the depression so far, it has also remained
south of a track bifurcation point that was seen yesterday in the
ensemble guidance. The tropical cyclone now appears more likely to
turn sharply east-northeastward starting on Tuesday and continuing
through the remainder of the forecast. The track guidance this cycle
has made another south and eastward shift, and the NHC track
forecast has been moved in that direction. In particular, the
track guidance continues to show much more east-northeastward
acceleration at the end of the forecast, requiring large speed
changes in days 4 and 5, and this still might not be fast enough.
The latest track forecast is very close to the HCCA consensus aid,
but blends it with a little more of the Google DeepMind ensemble
mean (GDMI) by the day 5 forecast.

While the depression has not yet developed an inner core, one is
expected to form in the next 12-24 hours. Some southerly vertical
wind shear is expected to persist, though it never gets
prohibitively strong, remaining under 20 kt for the next 48-72 h in
the GFS-based SHIPS. Therefore, intensification is expected and the
latest NHC intensity forecast is roughly in line with the intensity
guidance consensus aids. In 3-4 days, the cyclone is expected to
find itself in the right entrance region of an intensifying
upper-level jet, and the enhanced upper-level divergence in that
time may help support additional intensification even as the shear
begins to increase towards the end of the forecast. After the system
passes Bermuda, a strong baroclinic zone is expected to interact
with the system, resulting in extratropical transition by day 5 as
it gets tangled up with a frontal boundary. However, as stressed
previously, this is a low confidence forecast at long range given
the recent large track changes, especially since the southward shift
in track keeps the cyclone over warmer sea-surface temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible
along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning
Monday.

2. Rainfall associated with the system will continue to impact
eastern Cuba and the Bahamas through Tuesday, which will likely
produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the
higher terrain. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas could
cause flash, urban, and river flooding into Wednesday morning.

3. The risk of significant wind impacts along the southeastern
United States coast is decreasing, but interests in that area should
continue to monitor the latest forecast updates.

4. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Tropical Depression
Nine are expected to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip
currents along the east coast of Florida and the Georgia coast
through Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward
along much of the east coast of the United States early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 23.5N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 24.5N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.2N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.7N 77.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 28.8N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 29.3N 75.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 29.9N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 32.5N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 281450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...DEPRESSION NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS, WITH WINDS SOON INCREASING OVER THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 77.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.5
North, longitude 77.3 West. The depression is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster motion to the north-northwest
or north is expected later today and continuing through Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and tonight
and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern
U.S. by the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a
hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning later today and in the northwestern Bahamas late this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 2 to 6 inches across eastern Cuba and 6 to 12 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of
7 inches are expected into Wednesday morning across portions of the
coastal Carolinas. This rainfall could result in flash, urban, and
isolated, minor river flooding. Changes in the forecast track could
result in further adjustments to these rainfall totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with this system, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over
the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles...

Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River,
South Carolina...1 to 2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will
affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to
much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 281447
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 77.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 77.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.5N 77.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.2N 77.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.7N 77.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 77.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 29.3N 75.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT...115NE 120SE 120SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 29.9N 73.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 55NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 65NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 32.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 65SW 90NW.
34 KT...320NE 180SE 160SW 270NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 77.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 281152
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS, WITH WINDS SOON INCREASING OVER THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 77.3W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 77.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A faster motion to the north-northwest is expected to
begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move across the
central and northwestern Bahamas later today and tonight and
approach the southeast U.S. coast early this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane
by late Monday or Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure estimated by NOAA G-IV dropsonde data
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning later today and in the northwestern Bahamas late this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across eastern Cuba and 6 to 12 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 7
inches are expected into Wednesday morning across portions of the
coastal Carolinas. This rainfall could result in flash, urban, and
river flooding. Changes in the forecast track could result in
further adjustments to these rainfall totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Nine, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will
affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions
of the southeast U.S. coast early this week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 280856
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

The depression has been slowly becoming more organized overnight.
The minimum central pressure has fallen to 1003 mb, and satellite
images are indicating that a tighter circulation has formed along
with increasing deep convection. The initial intensity is held at
30 kt per the latest aircraft flight-level winds, but this system
will probably become a tropical storm soon.

The initial motion is a bit faster to the north-northwest, or 345/6
kt. This general motion with a turn towards the north is
anticipated during the next couple of days while the system moves
between an upper trough over the southeastern United States and the
subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, models are generally faster
and more offshore of the United States with the eventual track of
the tropical cyclone, following the trend of the past few cycles,
due to it missing the upper trough and eventually following
Hurricane Humberto more out to sea. While it is too early to feel
extremely confident, almost all of the reliable ensembles now keep
the system offshore of the southeastern United States, though some
impacts are still anticipated. The latest NHC forecast is shifted
to the south and east, but is not nearly as far to the southeast as
the latest consensus models due to continuity constraints.

Now that a better-defined core has formed, gradual intensification
is anticipated for the next couple of days while the system remains
in a warm water but moderate shear environment. The intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one through the first couple
days of the forecast. Afterwards, the intensity forecast is
slightly raised as the system could find itself in a lower shear
environment while still over warm waters. By the end of the
forecast, interaction with a frontal boundary is likely to cause
some weakening, along with extratropical transition. This is a low
confidence forecast at long range given the recent large track
changes.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible
along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning
Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

2. Rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nine will continue
to impact eastern Cuba and the Bahamas through Tuesday, which will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in
the higher terrain. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas
could cause flash, urban, and river flooding into Wednesday
morning.

3. There is still a risk of heavy rainfall, wind and high surf
impacts for the southeast U.S. coast even if the center
remains offshore. Residents should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 23.0N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 24.1N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 25.7N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 27.4N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 28.8N 77.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 29.5N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 29.9N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 30.6N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 31.7N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280854
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 77.2W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 77.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
A faster motion to the north-northwest is expected to begin later
today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of the system is expected to move across the central and
northwestern Bahamas today and tonight and approach the southeast
U.S. coast early this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a
hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb
(29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning later today and in the northwestern Bahamas late this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce
additional rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across eastern Cuba and 6 to 12
inches across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall
will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also
possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 7
inches are expected into Wednesday morning across portions of the
coastal Carolinas. This rainfall could result in flash, urban, and
river flooding. Changes in the forecast track could result in
further adjustments to these rainfall totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Nine, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will
affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions
of the southeast U.S. coast early this week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 280854
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 77.2W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 77.2W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 77.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.1N 77.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.7N 77.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.4N 77.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.8N 77.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 77.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 29.9N 75.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 130SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.6N 72.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 31.7N 66.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...320NE 160SE 160SW 300NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 77.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280548
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...HEAVY RAINS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 76.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 76.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
faster motion to the north-northwest is expected to begin later
today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of the system is expected to move across the central and
northwestern Bahamas today and tonight and approach the southeast
U.S. coast early this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a
hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning later today and in the northwestern Bahamas late this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 4 to 8 across eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are
also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

The system is also expected to bring a threat of heavy rainfall from
the east coast of Florida northward into the eastern Carolinas.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible, with localized
totals of 10 inches across portions of the coastal Carolinas. This
rainfall could result in flash, urban, and river flooding. Changes
in the forecast track could result in adjustments to these rainfall
totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will
affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions
of the southeast U.S. coast early this week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 280323 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Corrected first sentence of third paragraph

The depression this evening remains fairly disorganized, with
convection mainly oriented in a north-south fashion with only a
hint of banding on the northern side. A NOAA-P3 aircraft that
has been flying through the system only found a peak 700 mb flight
level wind of 34 kt about 60 n mi away from the center. Tail Doppler
Radar (TDR) analysis from the aircraft also shows the center is
quite broad at the 1 km level with the mid-level center tilted to
the south with height. Based on the plane data, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt this advisory, which is a little under the
various satellite-based estimates, but close to a recently
received scatterometer pass which had a peak wind of 31 kt.

Aircraft fixes both at 700 mb and from the TDR analysis shows the
cyclone is meandering right now, with a best guess at a motion of
310/2 kt. Over the next couple of days, the system should turn
north-northwestward with a somewhat faster forward motion, moving
within the flow between an upper trough over the southeast U.S. and
a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. This forecast brings the
depression over the central and northwestern Bahamas through early
Monday, then toward the southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. It is
notable to point out the system has been moving slower than
anticipated over the last 12-24 hours, and this could have
significant implications on its ultimate track. Even in the first
48 hours of the track, there is quite a bit of spread in the
north-south direction in both the deterministic and ensemble model
guidance. Faster tracks appear to interact more with the upper-level
trough to the west, resulting in a track closer to the Carolina
coastline, while slower tracks largely miss a direct interaction
with this feature, and turn sharply east faster as Hurricane
Humberto approaches from the east, eroding the mid-level ridging
steering TD9 northward. Because it has been moving slower than
expected, its becoming more likely its ultimate track will fall in
the slower and sharper east camp. In response, the overall track
guidance this cycle shifted slower and further east, and the NHC
track forecast was shifted in that direction. The latest track
roughly splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS tracks, and
lies quite close to the HCCA consensus aid, but still not as far
south and east as the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).

The depression is not showing signs of intensification yet, with a
broad diffuse structure on aircraft observations persisting.
However, the intensity guidance is insistent that deep central
convection will soon form near the center, helping to tighten up the
surface wind field. While the cyclone will have some southerly shear
to deal with, it does not appear to be prohibitively strong, only
15-20 kt for the next 48 hours in both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance. That, combined with warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures
should promote steady intensification once a central core develops,
and the NHC intensity forecast was nudged up a little higher showing
a 70 kt peak in 48 hours. After this period is where the intensity
forecast gets tricky. The large spread in north-south tracks also
has a significant impact on the amount of shear the system will face
in the 48-96 hour time-frame. Solutions that are further south have
less shear to contend with and are generally stronger. For now, the
latest intensity forecast will cap the peak intensity at 70 kt
through the end of the forecast, close to the HCCA intensity
guidance, but this could be conservative if the track shifts further
south and east. The system could also interact with a baroclinic
zone towards the end of the forecast, but because the forecast track
remains over warm waters at day 5, extratropical transition won't be
shown quite yet.

Even if this further offshore track pans out, the wind field is
expected to expand quite a bit, and given the expected storm
structure, a risk of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and
wind impacts is still possible for the southeast U.S. coast even if
the storm center remains offshore.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible
along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning
Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

2. Rainfall will continue to impact eastern Cuba and the Bahamas
through the weekend, which will likely produce flash and urban
flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain.

3. There is a significant threat of heavy rainfall early next week
from portions of the east coast of Florida northward into the
Carolinas, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding.

4. The depression is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it is closest to the southeast U.S. coast early next week,
where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Although it
is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and
ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 22.4N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 23.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 25.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 27.3N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 28.7N 78.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 29.9N 78.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 30.4N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 31.0N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 31.5N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 280256
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

The depression this evening remains fairly disorganized, with
convection mainly oriented in a north-south fashion with only a
hint of banding on the northern side. A NOAA-P3 aircraft that
has been flying through the system only found a peak 700 mb flight
level wind of 34 kt about 60 n mi away from the center. Tail Doppler
Radar (TDR) analysis from the aircraft also shows the center is
quite broad at the 1 km level with the mid-level center tilted to
the south with height. Based on the plane data, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt this advisory, which is a little under the
various satellite-based estimates, but close to a recently
received scatterometer pass which had a peak wind of 31 kt.

Aircraft fixes both at 700 mb and from the TDR analysis shows the
cyclone is meandering right now, with a best guess at a motion of
310/2 kt. Over the next couple of days, the system should turn
north-northwestward with a somewhat faster forward motion, moving
within the flow between an upper trough over the southeast U.S. and
a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. This forecast brings the
depression over the central and northwestern Bahamas through early
Monday, then toward the southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. It is
notable to point out the system has been moving slower than
anticipated over the last 12-24 hours, and this could have
significant implications on its ultimate track. Even in the first
48 hours of the track, there is quite a bit of spread in the
north-south direction in both the deterministic and ensemble model
guidance. Faster tracks appear to interact more with the upper-level
trough to the west, resulting in a track closer to the Carolina
coastline, while slower tracks largely miss a direct interaction
with this feature, and turn sharply east faster as Hurricane
Humberto approaches from the east, eroding the mid-level ridging
steering TD9 northward. Because it has been moving slower than
expected, its becoming more likely its ultimate track will fall in
the slower and sharper east camp. In response, the overall track
guidance this cycle shifted slower and further east, and the NHC
track forecast was shifted in that direction. The latest track
roughly splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS tracks, and
lies quite close to the HCCA consensus aid, but still not as far
south and east as the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).

The depression is now showing signs of intensification yet, with a
broad diffuse structure on aircraft observations persisting.
However, the intensity guidance is insistent that deep central
convection will soon form near the center, helping to tighten up the
surface wind field. While the cyclone will have some southerly shear
to deal with, it does not appear to be prohibitively strong, only
15-20 kt for the next 48 hours in both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance. That, combined with warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures
should promote steady intensification once a central core develops,
and the NHC intensity forecast was nudged up a little higher showing
a 70 kt peak in 48 hours. After this period is where the intensity
forecast gets tricky. The large spread in north-south tracks also
has a significant impact on the amount of shear the system will face
in the 48-96 hour time-frame. Solutions that are further south have
less shear to contend with and are generally stronger. For now, the
latest intensity forecast will cap the peak intensity at 70 kt
through the end of the forecast, close to the HCCA intensity
guidance, but this could be conservative if the track shifts further
south and east. The system could also interact with a baroclinic
zone towards the end of the forecast, but because the forecast track
remains over warm waters at day 5, extratropical transition won't be
shown quite yet.

Even if this further offshore track pans out, the wind field is
expected to expand quite a bit, and given the expected storm
structure, a risk of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and
wind impacts is still possible for the southeast U.S. coast even if
the storm center remains offshore.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible
along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning
Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

2. Rainfall will continue to impact eastern Cuba and the Bahamas
through the weekend, which will likely produce flash and urban
flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain.

3. There is a significant threat of heavy rainfall early next week
from portions of the east coast of Florida northward into the
Carolinas, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding.

4. The depression is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it is closest to the southeast U.S. coast early next week,
where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Although it
is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and
ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 22.4N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 23.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 25.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 27.3N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 28.7N 78.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 29.9N 78.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 30.4N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 31.0N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 31.5N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280251
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT DAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 76.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be
required on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located by NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 22.4
North, longitude 76.7 West. The depression has been meandering with
a very slow motion toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
faster motion to the north-northwestward motion is expected to begin
on Sunday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the system is expected to move across the central and
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and Sunday night and approach the
southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight or early
Sunday and a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft
dropsonde data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning tonight or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 4 to 8 across eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are
also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

The system is also expected to bring a threat of heavy rainfall from
the east coast of Florida northward into the eastern Carolinas.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible, with localized
totals of 10 inches across portions of the coastal Carolinas. This
rainfall could result in flash, urban, and river flooding. Changes
in the forecast track could result in adjustments to these rainfall
totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will
affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions
of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 280248
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0300 UTC SUN SEP 28 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 76.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 76.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 76.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.6N 77.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 77.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.7N 78.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.9N 78.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.4N 77.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 31.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 130SW 190NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.5N 71.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 140SE 140SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 76.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272346
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 76.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be
required tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located by NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 22.4 North,
longitude 76.5 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the
northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is
expected to begin tonight and continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and Sunday night and
approach the southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early
Sunday and a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft
dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning tonight or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 4 to 8 across eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Across
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba, an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

By early next week, moisture from Tropical Depression Nine is
expected to bring a threat of heavy rainfall from the east coast of
Florida northward into the eastern Carolinas. Rainfall amounts of 3
to 6 inches are possible, with localized totals of 10 inches across
portions of the coastal Carolinas. This rainfall could result in
flash, urban, and river flooding. Changes in the forecast track
could result in adjustments to these rainfall totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will
affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions
of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 272044
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

The organization of the depression has not changed much since this
morning. Some deep convection has flared up this afternoon near the
estimated center, which appears broad in the 850-mb flight-level
wind data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. The earlier
scatterometer winds and more recent aircraft data do not suggest the
system has intensified. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for
this advisory.

The center appears to be slightly south and west of previous
estimates, with an uncertain initial motion of 315/4 kt. Over the
next couple of days, the system should turn more north-northwestward
within the flow between an upper trough over the southeast U.S. and
a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. This forecast brings the
depression over the central and northwestern Bahamas through early
Monday, then toward the southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. The NHC
track forecast is very similar to the previous one, with only a
slight nudge westward based on the initial position adjustments
during the day. Warm waters and strong upper-level divergence should
promote strengthening during the next few days, but this could be
tempered by moderate southerly shear over the system from an
upper-level trough. The NHC intensity forecast shows steady
strengthening through early next week, with the system becoming a
hurricane by 60 h. This prediction lies close to the latest IVCN and
HCCA aids.

There is still above-average uncertainty in the details of the
long-range forecast. In general, the models agree that the presence
of Hurricane Humberto to the east will result in a weakening of the
prevailing steering currents, causing the system to slow down and
meander near the southeast U.S. coast on Tuesday. While the chances
of a landfall appear lower than yesterday, there are still some
hurricane regional models and ensemble solutions that show this
possibility. Given the expected asymmetric storm structure, a risk
of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and wind impacts exists
for the southeast U.S. coast even if the storm center remains
offshore. The increased track spread at 96-120 h is related to
whether the system feels the effects of an amplifying upper-level
trough behind Humberto over the western Atlantic. While many global
models show a sharp eastward turn and acceleration away from land,
the system fails to be captured by the trough in the 12z ECMWF and
lingers offshore. The NHC track forecast at days 4-5 maintains a
consensus approach and shows a slower eastward motion, but future
track adjustments are likely as confidence increases. The system may
be in close proximity to fronts by the end of the period, so
extratropical transition could begin around or shortly after day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible
along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning
Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

2. Rainfall will continue to impact eastern Cuba, Hispaniola,
Jamaica, and the Bahamas through the weekend, which will likely
produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the
higher terrain.

3. There is a significant threat of heavy rainfall early next week
from portions of the east coast of Florida northward into the
Carolinas, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding.

4. The depression is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it is closest to the southeast U.S. coast early next week,
where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Although it
is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and
ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.2N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.9N 77.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 78.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 30.8N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 31.1N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 31.5N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272043
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 76.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be
required tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 76.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
north-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday and Sunday night and approach the southeast U.S. coast early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Sunday and
a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning tonight or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 4 to 8 across eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Across
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba, an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

By early next week, moisture from Tropical Depression Nine is
expected to bring a threat of heavy rainfall from the east coast of
Florida northward into the eastern Carolinas. Rainfall amounts of 3
to 6 inches are possible, with localized totals of 10 inches across
portions of the coastal Carolinas. This rainfall could result in
flash, urban, and river flooding. Changes in the forecast track
could result in adjustments to these rainfall totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will
affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions
of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 272042
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
2100 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 76.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 76.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.3N 77.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.9N 77.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 78.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 78.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.8N 78.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 31.1N 76.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 160NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 140SE 140SW 250NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 76.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271747
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 76.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches could be required later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
north-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday and Sunday night and approach the southeast U.S. coast early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane by
late Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning later today or early Sunday and in the northwestern
Bahamas on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches
possible in eastern Cuba, and 4 to 8 inches of rain in the Bahamas.
Across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern
Cuba, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected. This rainfall
will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also
possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola,
and Jamaica.

Moisture from Tropical Depression Nine will lead to a threat of
heavy rainfall well to the north from Coastal Georgia through the
Carolinas and into the southern Mid-Atlantic states into early next
week which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will
affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions
of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 271450
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Deep convection has increased over the disturbance this morning, and
dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
pressures are gradually falling between the central Bahamas and
eastern Cuba. In addition, dropsonde and flight-level wind data from
the aircraft show the low-level circulation has become better
defined. Based on these developments, the disturbance is now
classified as a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance later today.

The initial motion of the depression is an uncertain 320/5 kt. A
north-northwestward motion is expected as the system moves between a
deep-layer trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge
over the Atlantic. The track models are in good agreement through
72 h, and little change was made to this portion of the NHC track
forecast. This brings the center over the central and northwestern
Bahamas this weekend, moving roughly parallel to but offshore the
east coast of Florida. During this time, strengthening is forecast
as the system moves over warm waters within a diffluent upper-level
environment. However, the aforementioned trough should impart
moderate southerly shear over the cyclone, likely resulting in an
asymmetric storm structure. The near-term NHC intensity forecast was
raised slightly from the previous one and still shows a 65-kt
hurricane early next week off the southeastern U.S coast.

The track forecast beyond 72 h is still of low confidence, with a
bifurcation of solutions noted in the various deterministic models
and GFS, ECMWF, and Google DeepMind ensemble members. Much depends
on the future track of Hurricane Humberto, the extent to which it
erodes the steering ridge over the Atlantic, and the strength and
timing of an upper trough expected to dig over the northwestern
Atlantic next week. A majority of the deterministic guidance
suggests that the system will slow down or briefly stall offshore of
the southeast U.S. coast before turning sharply eastward. There
remains considerable uncertainty in how quickly this might occur,
and it must be noted that some ensemble solutions still show the
system reaching the coast. For now, the NHC forecast continues to
show an eastward turn at days 4-5, but at a much slower forward
speed than most of the models.

Given the risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the east coast of
Florida, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line. Although it is still too early to specify the details of
potential impacts along the remainder of the southeast U.S. coast,
there remains a risk of heavy rainfall, storm surge, and wind
impacts.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible
along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning
Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.

2. Rainfall associated with this system will continue to impact
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the Bahamas through the
weekend, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding.
Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain.

3. There is a significant threat of heavy rainfall early next week
from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the southern
Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and river
flooding.

4. The depression is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where
there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Although it is too
soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and
ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.0N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.0N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 24.4N 77.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 26.1N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.9N 78.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 29.6N 78.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 30.7N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 31.3N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 31.5N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 271449
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
1500 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 76.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 77.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 77.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.9N 78.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.6N 78.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.7N 78.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 31.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 160NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 31.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 120SW 220NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 76.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 76.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
north-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and
continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the
system is expected to move across the central and northwestern
Bahamas this weekend and approach the southeast U.S. coast early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane
by late Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning later today or early Sunday and in the northwestern
Bahamas on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 16
inches possible in eastern Cuba, and 4 to 8 inches of rain in the
Bahamas. Across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and
southern Cuba, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected.
This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

Moisture from Tropical Depression Nine will lead to a threat of
heavy rainfall well to the north from Coastal Georgia through the
Carolinas and into the southern Mid-Atlantic states into early next
week which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the system, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271150
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 75.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is
expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the
southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression or storm
later today or tonight. Gradual strengthening is expected
thereafter, with the system forecast to become a hurricane by late
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days... high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning tonight or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas
on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible
in eastern Cuba, and 4 to 8 inches of rain in the Bahamas. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

Moisture from the disturbance will lead to a threat of heavy
rainfall well to the north across portions of the Southeast U.S. and
Virginia into early next week which could cause flash, urban, and
river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 270843
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Satellite imagery this morning shows an increase in vorticity at
the western edge of a convective cluster located near the Ragged
Islands in the Bahamas. However, this has not reached the stage
where it could be called a well-defined center of circulation.
Based on this, the system is continued as a potential tropical
cyclone with maximum winds near 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/6 kt. Later today,
the system should turn north-northwestward between the subtropical
ridge over the Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the
southeastern United States. The track models are in good
agreement during this part of the system's life, and this portion
of the new forecast track is almost the same as the previous track.
After 72 h, the guidance continues to be quite divergent. Most of
the deterministic and consensus models now show a turn toward the
east caused by Hurricane Humberto passing to the east of the system
and breaking down the ridge. However, the HMON and HAFS-A models
still show landfall in the southeastern United States, as do several
ECMWF and GFS ensemble members. Given the current guidance and the
trends, the new forecast track calls for a slow turn to the
northeast and east after 72 h, but at a much slower forward speed
than most of the guidance. It should be noted that while this
forecast keeps the system offshore, it would still be large enough
and close enough to cause wind and coastal flooding impacts along
the southeastern U.S. coast, as well as heavy rainfall/flooding
concerns in inland areas.

Based on current trends in the satellite imagery and the global
models, the disturbance will likely take another 12-18 h to become
a tropical cyclone. After that happens, strengthening is expected
through 72 h as the system moves through an upper-level wind
environment of moderate shear and strong divergence. The intensity
forecast continues to show the system reaching hurricane strength
in 3-4 days, which is in agreement with the intensity consensus.
Some weakening is expected by 120 h due to shear and possible
interaction with a frontal system approaching from the northwest.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm this
weekend and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
central and northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are
in effect.

2. Rainfall associated with this system is expected to impact
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the Bahamas through the
weekend, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding.
Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain.

3. There is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall early next
week from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the
southern Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and
river flooding.

4. The system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where
there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Residents in that
area should monitor updates to the forecast and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 21.9N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 27/1800Z 22.5N 76.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 28/0600Z 23.8N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.0N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.8N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 30.2N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 31.5N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 31.5N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 270842
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 75.8W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 75.8W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 76.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.8N 77.0W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.0N 77.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.8N 78.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.2N 78.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 31.5N 78.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 31.5N 77.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 75.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270842
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 75.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including
Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros
Island, and Grand Bahama Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.9 North, longitude 75.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is
expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the
southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression by
tonight. Gradual strengthening is forecast thereafter, with the
system becoming a tropical storm by early Sunday, and a hurricane
by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning tonight or early Sunday and are possible in portions of
the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce 8 to 12 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible to eastern Cuba
and 4 to 8 inches of rain to the Bahamas. This rainfall will likely
produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and
Jamaica.

Moisture from the disturbance is leading to a threat of heavy
rainfall from this system well to the north across portions of the
Southeast and Virginia into early next week which could cause flash,
urban, and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270531
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.5 North, longitude 75.8 West. The disturbance has moved little
during the past few hours. However, it is expected to start moving
northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) later this morning. A north-
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas this
weekend and approach the southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical depression by
tonight. Gradual strengthening is forecast thereafter, with the
system becoming a tropical storm by early Sunday, and a hurricane
by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days... high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning tonight or early Sunday and are possible in portions of
the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following storm
total rainfall amounts through Monday morning.

Eastern Cuba: 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 16
inches possible.

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches are expected.

Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba: 2 to
4 inches of additional rainfall are expected.

This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

An increasing threat of heavy rainfall from this system is forecast
over the southern Mid-Atlantic through coastal Georgia which could
cause flash, urban, and river flooding into next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 270237
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Many thanks to the crew of a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
which has been flying a surveillance mission in the disturbance this
evening. Dropsonde data from this flight, as well as surface
observations from Cuba, suggest that the system is still a trough
of low pressure, and the trough axis is a little farther west than
previously estimated. Maximum winds remain near 30 kt, and the
pressure has dropped slightly to 1007 mb based on the dropsonde
data.

The current motion is now estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8
kt. The system is expected to slow down and turn
north-northwestward by Saturday morning and continue that trajectory
over the weekend, embedded in the southerly flow between a
deep-layer trough over the southeastern U.S. and a ridge over the
west-central Atlantic. The track models are in good agreement for
the first 3 days of the forecast. The new NHC forecast track has
been shifted westward during that period, mainly due to the
westward adjustment of the initial position, but it is also a bit
slower than the previous prediction based on the latest guidance.
There is significantly more uncertainty in the track forecast after
day 3, but at the very least it appears that the system will slow
down considerably and perhaps even stall near the coast of South
Carolina. Interestingly, the 18z GFS and ECMWF solutions no longer
show the system moving inland over the southeastern U.S. and have
come more in line with their respective ensemble means, as well as
the HCCA consensus aid and Google DeepMind mean. For this new
forecast, a very slow, nearly stationary motion is shown on day 5,
with perhaps some hint of the start of a northeastward motion.
That said, even if the system stalls just offshore, it would still
be large enough to cause wind and coastal flooding impacts along
the southeastern U.S. coast, as well as heavy rainfall/flooding
concerns in inland areas.

Global models suggest it will still take another 24 hours or so for
the system to develop a well-defined circulation and organized
convection to be classified as a tropical depression. After that
time, strengthening is expected while the system moves over very
warm waters and within a divergent upper-level environment. The
NHC forecast continues to show the system reaching hurricane
strength in 3-4 days, which is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus
aids. Stronger shear, and possibly the beginnings of an
interaction with a nearby frontal boundary, could cause some
weakening by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm this
weekend and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
central and northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings and
Watches, respectively, are in effect. Rainfall associated with
this system will impact eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the
Bahamas through the weekend.

2. There is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall early next
week from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the
southern Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and
river flooding.

3. The system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where
there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Residents in that
area should monitor updates to the forecast and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.5N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 28/0000Z 23.3N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 28/1200Z 24.8N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 26.3N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 28.2N 78.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 32.0N 79.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 32.4N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 270235
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0300 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 76.0W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 76.0W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 76.6W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.3N 77.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.8N 77.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.3N 77.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.2N 78.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 32.0N 79.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 32.4N 78.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 76.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
WEEKEND...
...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 76.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 76.0 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northwestward
motion is expected to begin by early Saturday and continue through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected
to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and
approach the southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression by Saturday
night. Gradual strengthening is forecast thereafter, with the
system becoming a tropical storm by early Sunday, and a hurricane
by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday and are possible in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following storm
total rainfall amounts through Monday morning.

Eastern Cuba: 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 16
inches possible.

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches are expected.

Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba: 2 to
4 inches of additional rainfall are expected.

This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

An increasing threat of heavy rainfall from this system is forecast
over the southern Mid-Atlantic through coastal Georgia which could
cause flash, urban, and river flooding into next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 262347
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF HOLGUIN CUBA...
...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.0 North, longitude 75.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and
approach the southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
become a tropical depression on Saturday and a tropical storm
Saturday night or early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning Saturday night and are possible in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following
storm total rainfall amounts through Monday morning.

Eastern Cuba: 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 16
inches possible.

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches of rain are expected.

Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba: 2 to
4 inches of additional rainfall are expected.

This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

An increasing threat of heavy rainfall from this system is forecast
over the southern Mid-Atlantic through coastal Georgia which could
cause flash, urban, and river flooding into next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 262040
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Visible satellite images and surface observations suggest that
Invest 94L is gradually organizing and beginning to develop a
low-level circulation near eastern Cuba with estimated maximum winds
of about 30 kt. Although the system does not meet the criteria of a
tropical cyclone currently, it is expected to become one during the
next day or so. In addition, the system is likely to bring tropical
storm conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
this weekend and potential impacts to portions of the southeast U.S.
early next week. Therefore, NHC is now initiating Potential
Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance.

The system has been moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt during
the past 12 to 24 hours. However, this motion is expected to change
as the disturbance is forecast to turn northward in southerly flow
between a large-scale trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical
ridge over the central-western Atlantic. This track should take the
system across the central and northwestern Bahamas over the weekend.
The models are in good agreement through that time period, but they
diverge significantly early next week when the synoptic pattern
becomes complicated. If the system moves on the fast side of the
guidance, it will likely be more influenced by the U.S. trough that
is expected to cut off. In that scenario, the disturbance would
move inland over the southeast U.S. early next week. Conversely, if
the system moves on the slow side of the guidance, Humberto's
circulation will cause the steering currents to collapse, resulting
in this system stalling near the southeast coast or drifting
eastward. The NHC track forecast lies roughly between these
scenarios, in best agreement with EMXI, but confidence is very
low in the days 4 and 5 positions.

Strengthening is likely to be slow in the short term due to the
current land interaction and some southerly shear. However, gradual
intensification seems like a good bet this weekend and on Monday
while the system tracks over the Gulf Stream and within a diffluent
upper-level wind pattern. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to
the hurricane regional and consensus models and shows the system
reaching hurricane strength early next week. It should be
emphasized that the long-range intensity forecast depends largely on
where the system is and the degree of land interaction at those
periods, and therefore, is of low confidence. Given the
higher-than-usual uncertainty in the forecast track and intensity of
the system, NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been collecting data
over the western Atlantic since yesterday, and additional upper-air
launches are occurring. This data collection will continue through
the weekend to help improve the model guidance for this system.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm this
weekend and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
central and northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings and
Watches, respectively, have been issued. Rainfall associated with
this system will impact eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the
Bahamas through the weekend.

2. There is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall early next
week from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the
southern Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and
river flooding.

3. The system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where
there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Residents in that
area should monitor updates to the forecast and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.9N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 27/1800Z 22.7N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 28/0600Z 24.1N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 25.6N 76.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 27.4N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 29.7N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 31.8N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 262040
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 74.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the central Bahamas and a Tropical Storm Watch for portions
of the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

Interests in eastern Cuba, the southeast Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.9 North, longitude 74.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of the system is expected to track across the central and
northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the southeast U.S.
coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
become a tropical depression on Saturday and a tropical storm
Saturday night or early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area beginning Saturday night and are possible in the
watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following
storm total rainfall amounts through Monday morning.

Eastern Cuba: 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 16
inches possible.

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches of rain are expected.

Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba: 2 to
4 inches of additional rainfall are expected.

This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

An increasing threat of heavy rainfall from this system is forecast
over the southern Mid-Atlantic through coastal Georgia which could
cause flash, urban, and river flooding into next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 262039
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
2100 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 75.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.7N 75.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 76.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.6N 76.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.4N 77.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.7N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.8N 78.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 74.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI