Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for OCTAVE-25
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 091437
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM MST THU OCT 09 2025

...OCTAVE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 110.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 17
MPH (28 KM/H). THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY.


THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 091438
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM MST THU OCT 09 2025

OCTAVE'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED DUE TO INCREASING WIND
SHEAR. THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION THAT THE SYSTEM HAD PRODUCED
OVERNIGHT HAS COLLAPSED. GIVEN THE WIND SHEAR, OCTAVE IS NOT
FORECAST TO REGAIN CONVECTION AND THUS IS DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT
LOW WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CENTER OF OCTAVE HAS
ALREADY BECOME A LITTLE MORE RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 17.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 091437
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
1500 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 60SE 30SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 110.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090835
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025

...OCTAVE STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 111.7W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 111.7 West. Octave is
moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the
east prior to dissipation later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, with Octave forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low later today, and dissipate by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 090835
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM MST THU OCT 09 2025

OCTAVE HAS MANAGED TO HOLD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, DESPITE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS TO BE AROUND 22 KT. HOWEVER, THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING
MORE RAGGED. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 2.0/30 KT, WHILE RECENT
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED BETWEEN 29 AND 34 KT.
CONSIDERING THE DETERIORATION IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND THE LATEST
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT.

OCTAVE IS NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 065 DEGREES AT 16 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY AN EASTWARD TURN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT TOWARD A NEWLY DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONE (INVEST 90E) OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
THE NHC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.

OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE NEARING THE END OF ITS LIFE, AS STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CURRENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE
SOON, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING, WITH RECENT INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND THE REMAINING
CONVECTION BECOMING FURTHER DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR OCTAVE
TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY
24 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.9N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.4N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 090834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 75SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.4N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 090243
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

Octave has regained a small area of deep convection this evening but
remains highly sheared, with the latest UW-CIMSS analysis indicating
23 kt of easterly shear. The most recent subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimate from TAFB is 2.5/35 kt, while a SATCON and
AI-based estimate from UW-CIMSS were 39 and 40 kt, respectively.
Considering a Metop-C ASCAT pass from earlier today that showed
several 38-kt wind barbs, along with the redevelopment of deep
convection near the center, the initial intensity for this advisory
is held at a possibly generous 40 kt.

Octave has accelerated since the previous advisory and is now moving
east-northeastward, or 075 degrees at 15 kt. This general motion
should continue tonight, taking the cyclone south of Priscilla. A
turn toward the east is expected on Thursday as Octave moves toward
a newly developing tropical cyclone (Invest 90E) off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Octave is forecast to open into a
trough by 36 hours, if not sooner, before being absorbed into the
larger circulation of 90E. The new NHC forecast track lies slightly
south of the previous one and follows a blend of the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean and the latest multi-model consensus aids.

Octave’s days are numbered, with more than 30 kt of easterly
vertical wind shear forecast to persist over the system during the
next couple of days. The current burst of deep convection southwest
of the low-level center may be its last, as suggested by simulated
satellite imagery from the latest GFS and ECMWF runs. The new NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, calling
for Octave to become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours and
dissipate by 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.1N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.9N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 090242
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0300 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 113.2W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 90SE 75SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 113.2W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.9N 111.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 108.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090242
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

...OCTAVE ACCELERATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 113.2W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 113.2 West. Octave is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn
toward the east on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Octave
is expected to dissipate by late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 082034
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 08 2025

...OCTAVE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ON
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 115.1W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 115.1 West. Octave is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected tonight.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening
is forecast during the next day or so, and Octave is expected to
dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 082034
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2025

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A CONVECTIVE MASS, WHICH HAS BEEN
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS RANGE FROM 30-45 KT. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS SHOWED PEAK VECTORS OF 38 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN SET TO 40 KT. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS STILL CLOSED/WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER, THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA'S CIRCULATION ARE
ONLY LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF OCTAVE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE OCTAVE COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, EVEN THOUGH DISSIPATION ISN'T EXPLICITLY FORECAST UNTIL
BEYOND 24 H.

OCTAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 KT. A GRADUAL
BEND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AS
OCTAVE MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF PRISCILLA. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA).

STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OVER 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OCTAVE'S LIFETIME. WHILE BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY
STILL FORM, ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY BE SHEARED OFF TO THE
WEST. GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE SHOW OCTAVE LOSING ITS
CONVECTION BY HOUR 24, BUT AS NOTED ABOVE, OCTAVE COULD LOSE ITS
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME. THE CLOSER OCTAVE
GETS TO PRISCILLA, THE SOONER OCTAVE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 082033
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
2100 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.1W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.1W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 112.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 081440
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM PDT Wed Oct 08 2025

...OCTAVE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ON
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 116.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 116.2 West. Octave is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is expected during the next day or so, and
Octave is forecast to dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 081441
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2025

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH OCTAVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, AS STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR,
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM PRISCILLA, CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE. IN FACT, THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS DIAGNOSING 30 TO 35 KT OF
SHEAR CURRENTLY. GOES-W IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS, AND RECENT
AMSR2 AND GPM MICROWAVE PASSES CONFIRM THIS STRUCTURE. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGE FROM 30-45 KT, WHILE
UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 32-41 KT. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS RECENT, THE INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST, OR 080 DEGREES, AT 10 KT. A
TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED SOON, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
NORTHEASTWARD TURN TONIGHT AS OCTAVE MOVES SOUTH OF PRISCILLA AND
NEAR ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM (EP90) TO ITS SOUTHEAST, LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.

EASTERLY SHEAR OVER 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE STORM'S
PATH THROUGH THURSDAY. OCTAVE COULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR
ANOTHER 12 H DUE TO ITS MOTION IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR
VECTOR AND THE CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTIVE BURST. HOWEVER, ALL
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT OCTAVE WILL NO LONGER HAVE A
CLOSED CIRCULATION BY HOUR 36. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION
COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT. GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT OCTAVE COULD LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 H. REGARDLESS, OCTAVE IS UNLIKELY TO STILL
BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.4N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 081440
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
1500 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 116.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 116.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 116.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 116.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 080837
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Octave continues to produce small
bursts of deep convection, with a new area of convection
redeveloping south of the low-level circulation center during the
past few hours. Overall, the cyclone remains sheared and poorly
organized, with the low-level center partially exposed on the
northeastern edge of the convection. Since the overnight ASCAT pass
did not sample the circulation center, the initial intensity is set
at 35 kt, which represents a blend of the subjective Dvorak and
objective satellite estimates.

The initial motion is toward the east, or 080 degrees, at around 9
kt, and this motion is expected to continue through the morning
hours today. A turn toward the northeast is expected later today
into Thursday as Octave moves south of Hurricane Priscilla and near
another developing system (EP90) to its southeast, located near the
southwest coast of Mexico. This forecast track is very similar to
the previous NHC advisory and represents a blend of the consensus
aids and the Google DeepMind guidance.

Although the current intensity is estimated at 35 kt, this value may
be somewhat generous given the recent degradation in Octaves
satellite presentation under strengthening easterly shear. Simulated
satellite imagery from the global models indicates that intermittent
bursts of convection should continue through the day today before
diminishing thereafter. Thus, the new NHC forecast now shows the
system becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours, and
dissipating by 48 hours. The intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and lies near the middle portion of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.2N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.5N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.6N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/1800Z 17.4N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080836
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Wed Oct 08 2025

...OCTAVE WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 117.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 117.3 West. Octave is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected later this morning that will continue through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Octave
is expected to dissipate by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 080836
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.5N 115.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 50SE 50SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.6N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.4N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 117.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 080238
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Octave continues to produce
intermittent bursts of deep convection, primarily across the
southern and southwestern portions of the circulation due to
easterly shear influencing the system. An earlier ASCAT pass
indicated that the system remains intact, though the strongest winds
are now confined to the southern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 kt, while objective
estimates range between 25 and 33 kt. Based on these data and the
persistent satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at
40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is toward the east-southeast, or 100 degrees, at
around 6 kt. This motion is expected to continue into early
Wednesday as the storm moves along the southern periphery of a mid-
to upper-level trough extending southwestward from the U.S. West
Coast and beneath the much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking
northwestward several hundred miles to the northeast. A turn toward
the northeast, along with some acceleration, is expected late
Wednesday into Thursday as Octave moves south of Priscilla and near
another developing system (EP90) to its southeast near the southwest
coast of Mexico. This forecast track is very similar to the previous
NHC advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids and the
Google DeepMind guidance.

Given Octave’s compact structure, the system may be able to maintain
its intensity into early Wednesday before succumbing to an
increasingly hostile environment of strengthening shear and drier
air. A steady weakening trend is forecast thereafter, and Octave is
expected to dissipate by Thursday as it interacts with Priscilla’s
larger circulation to the north and EP90 to its southeast. The new
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near
the middle portion of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 15.2N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.2N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080237
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025

...OCTAVE IS HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 118.0W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 118.0 West. Octave is
moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn east-northeast
and faster forward motion tomorrow into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or two, and Octave
is expected to dissipate by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 080237
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.0W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.0W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.2N 114.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 072039
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2025

OCTAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION, THOUGH THIS
ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED AND DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE
NOW EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS STRUCTURE IS LARGELY THE RESULT
OF INCREASING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR RELATED TO MUCH LARGER
HURRICANE PRISCILLA TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES REMAIN T3.0/45-KT, THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
NOW ALL UNDER 40 KT, AND A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS ONLY HAD A PEAK
DERIVED WIND OF 37 KT. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR OCTAVE IS
LOWERED TO 40 KT THIS ADVISORY.

NOW THAT THE CENTER IS MOSTLY EXPOSED, ITS BEEN A LITTLE EASIER TO
TRACK THE CENTER, WITH ITS MOTION ESTIMATED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
110/7 KT. OCTAVE'S PRIMARY STEERING CURRENTS ARE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES THAT ARE PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF
PRISCILLA AND THE LARGER MONSOONAL FLOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS THE STORM REACHES PRISCILLA'S LONGITUDE,
OCTAVE'S TRACK WILL LIKELY BEND MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE OUTER
EDGE OF PRISCILLA'S FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PRIOR ONE, BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AFTER 24 H, FOLLOWING
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND GUIDANCE.

THE CURRENT 20-25 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30-35 KT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 H. THUS, OCTAVE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING, BUT WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHEARED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER 48 HOURS, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH, ROUGHLY BETWEEN PRISCILLA TO
ITS NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM (EP90) TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN EARLIER, AND NOW
SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 60 H, THOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN SHOWN
HERE GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS FORECAST IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.3N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 15.2N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 15.7N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 16.6N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.4N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 072037
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2025

...OCTAVE A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 118.8W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
EAST-NORTHEAST AND FASTER FORWARD MOTION TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO, AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 072035
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.2N 117.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.6N 113.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.4N 110.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 071435
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025

...OCTAVE CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 119.1W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 119.1 West. Octave is
moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed
by a faster motion toward the east-northeast thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight,
followed by gradual weakening and dissipation by late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 071436
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2025

OCTAVE IS MAINTAINING SOME CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ITS CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES ARE MOSTLY LACKING. THERE IS SOME LIMITED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH
THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE STORM
AND AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.

THE CYCLONE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF AROUND
110/6 KT. OCTAVE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES, AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MAINLY EASTWARD
MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LATER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES PARTIALLY ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGE
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
TO ITS EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED
CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.

EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER OCTAVE,
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE STORM SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY DISRUPTED BY THE INFLUENCE OF PRISCILLA. SO,
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT IS
LIKELY TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OCTAVE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION IN 60-72 HOURS. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.3N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 17.0N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 17.9N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 071435
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 119.1W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 119.1W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 119.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.3N 118.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 114.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.0N 112.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.9N 110.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 119.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 070848
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Octave continues to produce bursts
of deep convection, with a new area of cold cloud tops redeveloping
and expanding over and north of the low-level circulation center
during the past several hours. A 0541 UTC METOP-C ASCAT pass showed
that the storm's compact structure remains intact, with peak surface
winds around 40 kt. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB remain 3.0/45 kt, and objective intensity estimates range from
26 to 41 kt. Based on these data and consistent satellite trends,
the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is toward the east-southeast, or 110 degrees, at
around 6 kt. This motion is expected to continue today as the storm
moves along the southern periphery of a mid- to upper-level trough
extending southwestward from the U.S. West Coast, and south of a
much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking northwestward well to the
east-northeast. A gradual turn back toward the east is forecast
tonight into Wednesday, followed by a northeastward acceleration by
Thursday as Octave begins to interact with, and possibly become,
absorbed by Priscilla. This forecast track is very similar to the
previous NHC advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids
and the Google DeepMind guidance.

Given Octaves compact structure, the system may be able to maintain
its intensity for another day or so before succumbing to an
increasingly hostile environment of strengthening shear and drier
air. A steady weakening trend is forecast thereafter, and Octave is
expected to dissipate by Thursday as it interacts with Priscillas
larger circulation. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and lies near the middle portion of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 15.8N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 15.4N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.1N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.4N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 17.9N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 070848
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025

...OCTAVE HOLDING STEADY WHILE HEADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 119.5W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 119.5 West. Octave is
moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed
by a faster motion toward the northeast thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight, followed by
gradual weakening and dissipation by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 070847
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 119.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 119.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.4N 118.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.1N 117.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.4N 115.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.9N 110.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 119.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 070239
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Satellite imagery shows a compact tropical cyclone with a burst of
deep convection that has redeveloped over and north of the low-level
circulation center after briefly diminishing earlier today.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 3.0/45 kt,
and objective intensity estimates range from 34 to 45 kt. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion is toward the east-southeast, or 110 degrees, at
around 6 kt. This motion is expected to continue through Tuesday as
the storm moves on the southern periphery of a mid- to upper-level
trough extending west-southwestward off the U.S. West Coast, and
south of a much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking northwestward
well to the east. A gradual turn back toward the east is forecast
late Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by a northeastward
acceleration by Thursday as Octave begins to interact with and
ultimately becomes absorbed by Priscilla. This forecast track lies
slightly to the right or south of the previous NHC forecast and
represents a blend of the consensus aids and the Google DeepMind
guidance.

Given Octave’s compact structure, the system may be able to maintain
its structure and intensity for another day or so before succumbing
to the increasingly hostile environment of strengthening shear and
dry mid-level air. A steady weakening trend is forecast thereafter,
and Octave is expected to dissipate by Thursday as it becomes
absorbed within Priscilla’s larger circulation. The new intensity
forecast is near the upper end of the guidance for the next day or
so, then trends toward the middle portion of the guidance envelope
thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.8N 120.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 15.4N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 15.1N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.1N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.9N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 070238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025

...OCTAVE HOLDING STEADY WHILE HEADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 120.4W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 120.4 West. Octave is
moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two, followed
by a faster motion toward the northeast thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Tuesday, followed by
gradual weakening and dissipation by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 070237
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0300 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 120.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 120.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.1N 118.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.1N 116.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 114.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 120.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 062034
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025

...COMPACT OCTAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 121.0W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 121.0 West. Octave is
moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An east to
east-southeast motion is expected during the next day or two,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to continue, and
Octave is forecast to dissipate in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 062035
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2025

OCTAVE HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WITHERING AWAY, AND ONLY A FEW DISORGANIZED
PATCHES REMAIN. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL QUITE WELL
ORGANIZED, HOWEVER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT, BASED
ON RECENT ASCAT DATA THAT SHOWED PEAK WINDS AROUND 40 KT. A
SATELLITE VIEW OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN SHOWS HOW SMALL OCTAVE
IS COMPARED TO PRISCILLA. IN FACT, OCTAVE'S WIND FIELD IS LESS THAN
ONE-THIRD OF THE SIZE OF PRISCILLA.

THE STORM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 6 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. A CONTINUED
EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WHEN OCTAVE
BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW ON PRISCILLA'S SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GOOGLE DEEP
MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HCCA.

OCTAVE WILL LIKELY LOSE A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN A GENERALLY DRY
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THE STORM'S INTENSITY COULD PLATEAU DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
THAT OCTAVE WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE
OUTER CIRCULATION OF PRISCILLA IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AGAIN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LEANS CLOSER TO
THE LOWER END OF THE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.1N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.8N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 15.5N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 15.8N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 16.9N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 062033
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
2100 UTC MON OCT 06 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 121.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 121.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.8N 120.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.9N 112.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 061442
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025

...OCTAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 121.6W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 121.6 West. Octave is
moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An east to
east-southeast motion is expected during the next day or two,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to continue, and
Octave is forecast to dissipate in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 061442
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2025

OCTAVE CONTINUES TO LOSE STRENGTH THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHRINKING, AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 45 KT TO ABOUT 80 KT.
BASED ON THE DEGRADED STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET
CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE AT 55 KT. A SATELLITE VIEW OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN SHOWS HOW SMALL OCTAVE IS COMPARED TO
PRISCILLA. IN FACT, OCTAVE'S WIND FIELD IS LESS THAN ONE-THIRD OF
THE SIZE OF PRISCILLA.

THE STORM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 6 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. A CONTINUED
EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WHEN OCTAVE
BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW ON PRISCILLA'S SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND THIS
PREDICTION LIES CLOSEST TO THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEP MIND SOLUTIONS.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS OCTAVE MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
OF INCREASING SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW OCTAVE
OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH OR DISSIPATING COMPLETELY IN A FEW DAYS AS
IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF PRISCILLA. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LEANS
CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 16.3N 121.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.1N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.7N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 15.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 15.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 16.5N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 17.6N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 061442
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
1500 UTC MON OCT 06 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 121.6W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 121.6W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 120.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.7N 119.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.5N 118.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.6N 116.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.5N 114.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.6N 111.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060843
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2025

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OCTAVE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DIMINISHING IN
SIZE AND ITS CLOUD TOPS WARMING. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH A 0602
UTC METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWING PEAK SURFACE WINDS NEAR 50 KT,
SUPPORTS SETTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 60 KT, MAKING OCTAVE A
TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS EASTWARD AT AROUND 6 KT, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A
GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST AND A MUCH LARGER HURRICANE
PRISCILLA TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY, OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY PRISCILLA.
THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
AMONG THE GUIDANCE DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, LARGELY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BINARY INTERACTION. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AID.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST OCTAVE HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY, WHICH
ALIGNS WITH RECENT TRENDS. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE
CIRCULATION AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER, STRONGER SHEAR COMBINED WITH INTERACTION WITH PRISCILLA
SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP
INTO A TROUGH AND BE ABSORBED BY PRISCILLA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY AND NEAR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.3N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.0N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 15.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 15.5N 117.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 15.8N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 16.7N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060840
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025

...OCTAVE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS WHILE HEADING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 122.2W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 122.2 West. Octave is
moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
east-southeast is expected later today, continuing into Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the northeast and an acceleration by
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. A steady weakening trend is expected to continue through
midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060839
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC MON OCT 06 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 120.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 20SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.5N 117.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 116.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.7N 114.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 40SE 30SW 10NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 122.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Octave Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

...OCTAVE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 122.8W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Octave was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 122.8 West. Octave is moving
toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the east
is expected on Monday, followed by a more east-southward motion on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin
on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060236
TCDEP5

HURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2025

OCTAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE DATA SHOW HINTS OF AN EYE IN THE INFRARED AND LAST-LIGHT
VISIBLE IMAGERY. A 2358 UTC GPM MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTED OCTAVE
STILL HAD A SMALL, SLIGHTLY TILTED INNER CORE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 75 KT TO REPRESENT A BLEND OF THE
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 6 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO
TURN EASTWARD ON MONDAY. OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGER HURRICANE PRISCILLA, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO BEND
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS CONSIDERED HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
PREDICTION LIES BETWEEN THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS
AIDS, SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST OCTAVE MAY HAVE HIT ITS HIGH NOTE. THE CENTER
OF THE HURRICANE HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE 26 DEGREE C ISOTHERM AND
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. AFTER
A COUPLE OF DAYS, THE SHEAR SHOULD DRASTICALLY INCREASE AS OCTAVE
NEARS THE OUTFLOW OF PRISCILLA WHICH WILL ACCELERATE WEAKENING. FEW
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST AND DISSIPATION IS
STILL EXPECTED WITHIN 4 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.4N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 16.4N 121.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.3N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 16.1N 119.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 15.7N 118.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 15.7N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 16.1N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060235
TCMEP5

HURRICANE OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0300 UTC MON OCT 06 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 122.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 75SE 105SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 122.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 120.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.1N 119.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.7N 117.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.1N 115.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 122.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 052046
TCDEP5

HURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2025

THE STRUCTURE OF OCTAVE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE UNDERNEATH THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TIGHTLY WOUND CURVED BANDING, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE HINTS OF AN EYE
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE A
CONSENSUS 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55-80 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST,
OR 055 DEGREES AT 5 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE IS PUSHED IN THAT
DIRECTION BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING OCTAVE'S TRACK WILL
LIKELY BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL PRISCILLA, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE
TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT OCTAVE SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTH OF PRISCILLA. ONCE
OCTAVE GETS SOUTHEAST OF PRISCILLA, AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED UNTIL OCTAVE'S CIRCULATION LIKELY DISSIPATES
IN A LITTLE LESS THAN 4 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 60
HOURS, AND LIES ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE LATEST GFEX AND THE GOOGLE
DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

OCTAVE IS STRADDLING THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) GRADIENT AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SST GRADIENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, WITH THE EYE LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER SSTS IN THE 26 TO 26.5
DEGREE C RANGE. WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ON MONDAY. ALL OF THE MODELS
SHOW OCTAVE WEAKENING BEGINNING SHORTLY, BUT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12-24 H. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 H, THEN
LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER. BY 36 H,
INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR, PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF THE OUTFLOW FROM
PRISCILLA, IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WEAKENING. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT EITHER OCTAVE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE STRONGER
PRISCILLA OR THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM PRISCILLA WILL DISRUPT OCTAVE'S
CIRCULATION, OPENING IT INTO A TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO
OCCURS, OCTAVE SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 4 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.0N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.2N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 15.7N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 15.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 15.8N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 052043
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Octave Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

...OCTAVE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 123.3W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Octave was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 123.3 West. Octave is moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the east
and east-southeast is expected on Monday, followed by a gradual
increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by a
gradual weakening trend beginning on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 052042
TCMEP5

HURRICANE OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
2100 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 123.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 123.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.2N 122.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.7N 119.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 115.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 123.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 051439
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2025

...OCTAVE STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2025
EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 123.7W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OCTAVE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST. OCTAVE IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE EAST
AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 051439
TCDEP5

HURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2025

OCTAVE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH
BANDED CONVECTION BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTER. A 05/1008 UTC AMSR2 PASS SHOWED AN EYE ON MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. SOME EARLIER GOES-18 IMAGES FROM AROUND 1100-1200 UTC
SHOWED A POSSIBLE EYE, BUT DEEP, BANDED CONVECTION HAS COVERED IT UP
SINCE THAT TIME. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE
RISEN TO THE 60-75 KT RANGE, WHILE THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE REMAINS
T-4.0/65 KT. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AS
WELL AS THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION AS NOTED ON MICROWAVE
IMAGES, OCTAVE'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT, MAKING IT
THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2025 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD, OR 045 DEGREES
AT 3 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE IS PUSHED IN THAT DIRECTION BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. BY EARLY TUESDAY, THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING OCTAVE'S TRACK WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE AND
POWERFUL PRISCILLA, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT OCTAVE
SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTH OF PRISCILLA. ONCE OCTAVE GETS SOUTHEAST OF
PRISCILLA, AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED. THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST TAKES OCTAVE A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE EAST,
BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE LATEST HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA)
MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES A BIT SOUTH OF THE LATEST GOOGLE
DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

OCTAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
26 AND 27 DEGREES C, AND IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SIMILAR WATER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFETIME. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR ANOTHER 24-36 H. A DECENT NUMBER
OF TYPICALLY RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAKENING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE 12 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD, SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH AS TO WHETHER OCTAVE COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY, MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY, OR WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE (MAINLY DUE TO
THE STRONGER INITIAL INTENSITY), AND IS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE
GUIDANCE OVER THE FIRST DAY. BY 36 H, INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR,
PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF THE OUTFLOW FROM PRISCILLA, IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 36 H ONWARD. OCTAVE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
LARGER CIRCULATION OF PRISCILLA, AND THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.7N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 15.9N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 16.1N 122.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.9N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 15.7N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 15.3N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 15.3N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 17.6N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 051438
TCMEP5

HURRICANE OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
1500 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 123.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 123.7W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 123.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.1N 122.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 121.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.7N 119.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.3N 118.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.3N 117.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 17.6N 112.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 050833
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Octave remains a compact tropical
cyclone, with the diameter of its central dense overcast (CDO) near
150 miles. Intermittent bursts of deep convection continue near the
embedded center, with cloud-top temperatures occasionally exceeding
-80 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates are
4.0/65 kt from TAFB and 3.5/55 kt from SAB, while objective
estimates are as high as 60 kt. An ASCAT-B pass at 0534 UTC
depicted the small and compact system, with peak surface winds just
over 50 kt and tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 60 n
mi from the center. A blend of these data supports an initial
intensity of 60 kt for this advisory.

Octave is now moving slowly north-northeastward at about 3 kt, and
this motion is expected to continue today while the storm gradually
turns northeastward within a weak steering pattern between an
upper-level trough along the U.S. West Coast and Tropical Cyclone
Priscilla, which is drifting northwestward well to the east off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Beginning Monday, Octave should turn
eastward and gradually accelerate. By midweek, forecast uncertainty
increases significantly as Octave becomes increasingly influenced by
Priscilla’s evolution and track. The new NHC forecast track is very
similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus
aids, with Octave expected to dissipate by day 5 (Thursday night) as
it becomes absorbed by the larger Tropical Cyclone Priscilla.

Octave has intensified slightly since the previous advisory, and
with the environment remaining marginally conducive for the next 12
to 18 hours, some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out.
Guidance, however, generally supports the intensity holding steady
during this period, which is reflected in this forecast through the
day today. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear, combined with
the interaction with Priscilla, should induce a gradual weakening
trend. Octave is forecast to open up into a trough and be absorbed
by Priscilla by the end of the forecast period. The intensity
forecast remains close to the previous NHC advisory and near the
middle to upper portion of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.6N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.9N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 16.1N 122.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 15.9N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 15.5N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 15.3N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 16.3N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 050832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

...OCTAVE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 124.1W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 124.1 West. Octave is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and an
eastward turn is expected by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by a
gradual weakening trend beginning on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 050831
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 124.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 124.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.9N 123.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 122.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.9N 120.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.5N 119.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.3N 118.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 16.3N 115.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 124.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 050238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2025

...OCTAVE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 124.1W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN EASTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 050239
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2025

OCTAVE'S ORGANIZATION HAS HELD RELATIVELY STEADY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO BURST THROUGH A
MODESTLY-SIZED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN EARLIER AMSR2 37 GHZ
OVERPASS SHOWED A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 42 KT TO 65 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 55 KT REPRESENTING A BLEND OF THESE VALUES.

THE STORM IS STILL SLOWING MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 4 KT. A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SHORTLY, FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATED
EASTWARD MOTION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MUCH OF THIS TRACK PREDICTION
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA, LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES TO THE EAST OF OCTAVE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST DUE TO A MORE
NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION AND LIES BETWEEN HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEP
MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

OCTAVE HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF 18-24 HOURS WITH RELATIVELY CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW OCTAVE TO STRENGTHEN. BY
MONDAY, INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISRUPT
OCTAVE'S CIRCULATION AND INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. OCTAVE
IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL INTENSITY
PREDICTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 15.4N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 15.8N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.2N 123.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 16.2N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.1N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 15.9N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 15.5N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 15.6N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 050238
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0300 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 124.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 124.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 124.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.8N 124.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.2N 123.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.2N 122.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 121.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.9N 120.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.5N 118.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 15.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 124.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 042040
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2025

DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO PULSE TODAY NEAR THE CENTER OF
OCTAVE. RECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
WELL-ORGANIZED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE, WHICH WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE
PRESENTATION AND A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 55 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND IS NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 330/5 KT. A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD AND EVENTUAL EASTWARD TURN IS FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDS SOMEWHAT ON
THE INTERACTION OF OCTAVE WITH TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA TO ITS EAST
AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY
AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF TRACK CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND SOLUTION.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 H.
DURING THIS PERIOD, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, AFTER 24 H AS
OCTAVE TURNS TOWARD THE EAST, WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
THE STORM INTERACTS WITH TROUGH AND THE LARGER TROPICAL STORM TO
ITS EAST. LATE THIS WEEKEND, OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES
AFTER 96 H. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PRIOR ADVISORY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND IT REMAINS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 14.9N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.3N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.7N 123.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.9N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 16.0N 121.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 15.8N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 15.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 15.3N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 042039
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2025

...OCTAVE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 123.9W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1720 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.9 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 042039
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 04 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.9W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.9W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 123.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.3N 124.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 123.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 122.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 121.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.5N 119.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 15.3N 116.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 041444
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2025

OCTAVE'S OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS REMAINED STEADY THIS MORNING, WITH
ITS CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. A RECENT AMSR-2 MICROWAVE PASS ALSO INDICATES THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM IS MAINTAINING A WELL-ORGANIZED STRUCTURE, WITH
CURVED BANDS APPARENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A BLEND OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND THE
PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, SUPPORT A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 310/6
KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING A
NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD TURN LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE EASTWARD TURN IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, AS IT DEPENDS ON THE INTERACTION OF OCTAVE WITH INVEST
99E TO ITS EAST AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY AND REPRESENTS A
BLEND OF TRACK CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE FASTER GOOGLE DEEPMIND
SOLUTION.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 H.
WITHIN THIS NARROW WINDOW OF TIME, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, AFTER 24 H AS OCTAVE TURNS TOWARD THE EAST, WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE STORM INTERACTS WITH THE MUCH LARGER
SYSTEM TO ITS EAST. LATE THIS WEEKEND, OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PRIOR ADVISORY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND IT REMAINS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.6N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.5N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.9N 123.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 16.0N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 15.7N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 15.2N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 16.2N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 041442
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025

...OCTAVE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 123.6W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 123.6 West. Octave is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a gradual
turn toward the north is expected tonight and tomorrow. Early
next week, the tropical storm is expected to turn northeastward and
then eastward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 041442
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
1500 UTC SAT OCT 04 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.6W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.6W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 124.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.5N 124.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 123.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 122.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 121.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.7N 120.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 040840
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025

...OCTAVE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 123.2W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 123.2 West. Octave is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), with a
gradual turn toward the northwest expected later today. The tropical
storm is expected to slow and move northward on Sunday, and then
turn slowly eastward early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible through the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 040841
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2025

OCTAVE IS STILL TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING, AS
SHEAR STARTS TO DECREASE OVER THE SYSTEM. IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGES, A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS STARTED TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS
NEAR -80 C. HOWEVER, RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS DEPICTED PEAK
WINDS OF ONLY 34 KT, ALTHOUGH IT DID NOT SAMPLE THE CONVECTIVE BAND
TO THE WEST. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE HELD STEADY AND RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES AND THE LOWER SATELLITE DERIVED WIND SPEEDS, THE INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 290/7
KT. OCTAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN ON SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. IN ABOUT 48 H, THERE CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IT IS DUE TO
HOW MUCH INTERACTION OCCURS WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE (INVEST 99E) TO THE EAST. THE LATEST
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS IN THE SHORT-TERM, BUT
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE EASTWARD MOTION CLOSEST TO THE HCCA AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS.

WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO DECREASE OVER THE SYSTEM, WITH MARGINALLY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 27 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THUS, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
BY 48 H, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND A
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MUCH LARGER
SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS,
SHOWING SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH A LOWER PEAK
INTENSITY AND LIES NEAR THE SIMPLE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.2N 124.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.6N 123.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 15.9N 121.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 15.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 15.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 15.6N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 040840
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC SAT OCT 04 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 123.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 123.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 124.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.6N 123.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.9N 121.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 15.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 123.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 040233
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 03 2025

...OCTAVE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 122.7W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 122.7 West. Octave is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
northwestward turn is expected on Saturday. The tropical storm is
expected to slow and move northward on Sunday, and then turn slowly
eastward early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight. Some
additional strengthening is possible by the end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 040233
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2025

OCTAVE STILL HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.
INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, ISOLATED BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY FORMING WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON THAT HAD A FRAGMENTED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF OCTAVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 50 KT, REPRESENTING A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT RANGE BETWEEN 39 TO 55 KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT.
OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SOON, FOLLOWED BY
A NORTHWARD MOTION ON SUNDAY WITH A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST WEAKENS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD, BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS QUITE LARGE BY THE MIDDLE-TO-LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS BECAUSE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH OCTAVE
WILL INTERACT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND HOW
QUICKLY A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE (INVEST 99-E) WILL ORGANIZE. THE
ONLY CHANGES TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST ARE THAT IT LIES
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE FIRST 36 H,
DUE THE DELAYED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER THE CYCLONE WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT A DAY. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING OCTAVE BECOMING A HURRICANE.
BY 48 H, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MUCH
LARGER SYSTEM TO ITS EAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 123.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.8N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.5N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 15.7N 123.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 15.5N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 15.0N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 14.8N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 040233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0300 UTC SAT OCT 04 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 122.7W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 122.7W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 122.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 123.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.8N 124.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 124.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 123.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 123.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 15.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 14.8N 117.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 122.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 032035
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2025

WHILE OCTAVE'S OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS REMAINED STEADY SINCE THIS
MORNING, ITS CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST EMBEDDED ENOUGH WITHIN THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PRODUCED BY ITS CONVECTION FOR RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES TO COME UP TO T3.5 OR 55 KT. OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL A LITTLE LOWER, SO THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE WAS NO
USEFUL ASCAT DATA AVAILABLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S ANALYSIS, BUT
EARLIER SAR DATA ALSO GENERALLY SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY NEAR 50 KT
WITH WIND RADII SIMILAR TO WHAT NHC PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.

NO CHANGES OF NOTE WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK OR INTENSITY
FORECASTS, BUT BOTH ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OCTAVE SHOULD STILL CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO, BEFORE IT SLOWS DOWN AND
TURNS NORTHWARD. NEXT WEEK OCTAVE WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD, BUT EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH IT MOVES BEFORE
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OCTAVE INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH WELL TO ITS
NORTH AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING TO ITS EAST. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS STILL NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MULTI-MODEL AND
SINGLE-MODEL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST HAS
NOT INCREASED, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 72 HOURS.

SIMILARLY, OCTAVE'S INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT, IT WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
DAY OR SO WHERE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND THE CYCLONE
COULD INTENSITY FURTHER. THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES
TO BE AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING OCTAVE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH, BUT
THE ENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FROM
A NEAR STEADY-STATE TROPICAL STORM TO A STRONG HURRICANE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL ON THE HIGH END OF THE OTHER INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, BUT IS LOWER THAN THE GDM MEAN. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, OCTAVE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO ITS EAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.7N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 14.7N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.2N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.6N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 15.7N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 032034
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 03 2025

...OCTAVE HEADING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 121.7W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 121.7 West. Octave is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. The tropical storm
is expected to slow and turn northward on Sunday, and then turn
slowly eastward early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to near 60 mph (95
km/h) with higher gusts. Small fluctuations in intensity are
expected today. Some additional strengthening is possible by
the end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 032034
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
2100 UTC FRI OCT 03 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 121.7W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 121.7W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 121.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 122.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.7N 123.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 124.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.6N 123.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 122.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 121.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 031433
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2025

...OCTAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 121.0W
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OCTAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY, AND THEN TURN SLOWLY
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 031433
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2025

OCTAVE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM
STILL APPEARS TO BE SHEARED, AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
SIMILAR TO SIX HOURS AGO, SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE OUTLOOK FOR OCTAVE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OCTAVE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 7 KT, STEERED BY A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN
OCTAVE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DURING THAT TIME, IT
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT SHEARED WITH ITS INTENSITY ONLY
FLUCTUATING SLIGHTLY UP OR DOWN OVER THAT PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE
NHC FORECAST IS HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY.

HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GROWS
SUBSTANTIALLY. FIRST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN, RESULTING IN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROUGH OVER THE FAR NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE OCTAVE TO TURN AND DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER THAT, ANOTHER LARGER DISTURBANCE TO OCTAVE'S EAST WILL LIKELY
ALSO INFLUENCE OCTAVE'S TRACK, POTENTIALLY CAUSING IT TO MOVE FASTER
TOWARD THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH STEERING CURRENTS
WEAK, ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT COULD HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON OCTAVE'S TRACK. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE GROWS
SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND 48 H, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MUCH
LOWER AT THAT POINT.

THE INTENSITY IS LIKEWISE UNCERTAIN BEYOND 24 TO 36 H. THE SHEAR
AFFECTING OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN, AND THE TROPICAL STORM
SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
FOR AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO. OCTAVE'S RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE COULD MAKE
IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGES IN INTENSITY, UP OR
DOWN. ALL OF THE TRADITIONAL DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST
THAT OCTAVE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THAT PERIOD. ON
THE OTHER HAND, GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDM) ENSEMBLE SHOWS A VERY
DIFFERENT STORY WITH AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES
BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE NHC
FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED, AND IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE, BUT BELOW THE GDM ENSEMBLE MEAN. BECAUSE OF
THIS DISCREPANCY, CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW,
DESPITE THE FACT THAT NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST WITH
THIS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.4N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.8N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.4N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 15.0N 123.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 15.4N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 15.6N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 15.4N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 15.0N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 031433
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
1500 UTC FRI OCT 03 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 121.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 121.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 122.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 123.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.4N 124.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 123.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 15.4N 121.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 030841
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2025

OCTAVE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
MOSTLY EXPOSED AND DISPLACED EAST OF A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5/55 KT AND 3.0/45 KT, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE
THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 35 AND 44 KT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A RECENT 03/0435Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
WAS HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII AND
THE CENTER LOCATION, AND IT ALSO INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 38 KT.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, AND ACCOUNTING FOR SOME
UNDERSAMPLING IN THE SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

OCTAVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290 DEGREES
AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO
SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND TURN NORTHWARD BY LATE SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP EASTWARD TURN BY LATE SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST WEAKENS DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN OR WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND LIES NEAR A BLEND
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.

OCTAVE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS, WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LIGHT LEVELS, WHILE THE CYCLONE
REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 27C AND WITHIN A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WEEKEND. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, OCTAVE IS FORECAST
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A
NOTABLE DECREASE AMONG THE VARIOUS INTENSITY AIDS. THE FORECAST NOW
LIES ABOVE MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, AND
FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY DOWNWARD FURTHER
IF THE WEAKENING TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE PERSIST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 13.1N 120.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 13.6N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 14.1N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 15.1N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 15.5N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 15.4N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 15.1N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 030840
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2025

...OCTAVE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 120.4W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST BY
LATE SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP EASTWARD TURN BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 030840
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 03 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 120.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 120.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 120.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.6N 121.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 122.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.1N 124.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 123.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 121.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.1N 119.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 120.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 030246
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025

...OCTAVE MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 119.6W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 119.6 West. Octave is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
Over the weekend, Octave is forecast to turn sharply eastward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours
followed by some gradual strengthening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 030247
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2025

OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE IN A DELICATE STATE THIS EVENING. HINTS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARED ON THE LAST-LIGHT GOES VISIBLE
IMAGERY WHILE THE AFTERNOON'S DECAYING CONVECTION DRIFTED WESTWARD.
HOWEVER, A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED RATHER STEADY. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT, REPRESENTING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB
DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER OCTAVE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. BY DAY 3, THE STORM SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD FOLLOWED BY
A SHARP TURN TO THE EAST AS IT MOVES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONE (INVEST 99) OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS PREDICTION.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF. IF
OCTAVE CAN MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STATE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO ABATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 48 TO 72
H, FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEAR-TERM PREDICTION LIES ON
THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BLENDS CLOSER TO THE
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID, HCCA, BY THE MID-TO-LATTER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 12.9N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.2N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 13.8N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 14.4N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 14.8N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 15.2N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 15.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 15.7N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 15.4N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 030246
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 03 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 119.6W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 119.6W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 119.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.2N 120.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 121.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.4N 122.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.8N 123.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 123.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 121.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 119.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 022038
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025

...OCTAVE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 119.0W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 119.0 West. Octave is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 022039
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2025

OCTAVE CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED BY STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THERE IS A RATHER SHARP EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS NEAR THIS EASTERN EDGE. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED AND THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE INHIBITED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
OR 285/7 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS OR SO,
OCTAVE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME DRAWN INTO A LARGER
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ALSO SIMILAR
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS PREDICTION.

DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER OCTAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO LESSEN
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT DRIER BY THAT
TIME AND THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF OCTAVE COULD
ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING AROUND DAY 3, HOWEVER IT IS ABOVE MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 12.7N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.5N 121.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 14.0N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 15.0N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 15.3N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 15.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 15.7N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 022038
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
2100 UTC THU OCT 02 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 119.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 119.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 119.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.5N 121.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 122.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.0N 123.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.3N 123.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 15.7N 120.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 021438
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Octave continues to be affected by strong easterly vertical wind
shear associated with an upper-level anticyclone to its northeast.
The cloud pattern has not changed much in organization, with some
limited convective banding features over the southern and western
portions of the circulation. Upper-tropospheric outflow continues
to be impeded to the east of the cyclone. The advisory intensity
estimate is held at 55 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak
estimate from TAFB. Objective values from UW-CIMSS range from 49
to 54 kt at this time.

The system is moving west-northwestward at around 285/7 kt. Octave
is currently being steered by the flow on the southern perimeter of
a mid-level ridge. This ridge is predicted to weaken over the next
few days, which should cause the system to slow and turn northward
in around 72 hours. A generally eastward motion is expected by the
end of the forecast period, as Octave becomes drawn into the larger
circulation of a developing tropical cyclone off the southwest coast
of Mexico. The official track forecast is close to the latest
corrected dynamical consensus model, HCCA, track.

Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear over
Octave will abate in a few days while the system traverses
marginally warm ocean waters. Thus, there is a relatively small
window of opportunity for strengthening later in the forecast
period. This is also shown in the official intensity forecast,
which is at the high end of the model guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 12.5N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 12.8N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 13.3N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.8N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.4N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 15.0N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.3N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 15.9N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 021437
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 118.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 118.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.8N 119.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.3N 120.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 121.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.4N 123.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 123.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 124.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.9N 122.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 118.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 021437
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025

...OCTAVE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 118.5W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 118.5 West. Octave is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020849
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025

...OCTAVE MAINTAINS STRENGTH OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 117.9W
ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 117.9 West. Octave is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 020850
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025

The overall satellite presentation of Octave has changed little
since the previous advisory, though the previously well-defined
curved banding to the south and west of the center has become more
ragged in recent hours. The cyclone continues to be affected by
moderate easterly shear, analyzed at around 17 kt by UW-CIMSS. This
shear is restricting outflow in the eastern semicircle and keeping
the low-level center near the eastern edge of the deep convection.
Recent subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.5/55 kt
and 4.0/65 kt, respectively, while UW-CIMSS objective estimates have
ranged from 48 to 59 kt over the past few hours. Based on a blend of
these data, and with little change in the overall structure, the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt.

Octave is moving slightly north of due west, or 280 degrees at 7 kt.
A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days
as the cyclone is steered along the southern flank of a subtropical
ridge to its north. After day 3, Octave should slow as a longwave
trough approaches from the northwest, weakening the ridge and
overall steering flow. A developing disturbance or tropical
cyclone offshore of the southwestern or west-central coast of
Mexico is then forecast to erode the subtropical ridge to the east
of Octave, causing the cyclone to turn eastward by days 4 and 5.
The updated NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly southward to
account for Octave’s more westward recent motion and the latest
model trends. Considerable along- and cross-track spread remains
in the extended range, and the forecast track represents a blend of
the multi-model consensus and AI-based guidance.

Octave will remain over warm water and within a moist environment
during the next few days. However, vertical wind shear is expected
to fluctuate between moderate and strong levels during the next 36
hours, which should prevent significant intensification. As a
result, little change in strength is forecast during this period.
Some modest strengthening is possible between 48 and 96 hours as
shear decreases, though cooling sea surface temperatures and
gradually drier mid-level air should limit intensification. Octave
is still forecast to reach hurricane strength by days 3 and 4,
remaining below some of the more aggressive hurricane regional model
solutions. By day 5, weakening is likely as Octave moves into a
more stable, drier air mass and encounters increasing southeasterly
shear. The forecast remains close to the previous one and lies near
the higher end of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 12.1N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 12.3N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 12.8N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 13.3N 121.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 13.9N 122.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 14.4N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 14.9N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 15.6N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 15.6N 121.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 020849
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC THU OCT 02 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 117.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 117.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.3N 118.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.8N 119.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.3N 121.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.9N 122.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.9N 124.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.6N 123.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.6N 121.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 020242
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2025

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OCTAVE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH BETTER-DEFINED CURVED BANDING DEVELOPING ON
THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, ANALYZED
AT AROUND 22 KT BY UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR IS RESTRICTING OUTFLOW IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND KEEPING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 3.5/55 KT, WHILE
THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED FROM 45 TO 58 KT SINCE
THE PRIOR ADVISORY. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, AND CONSIDERING
THE MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

OCTAVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290 DEGREES
AT 6 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS OCTAVE IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, OCTAVE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND TURN NORTHWARD, THEN EASTWARD, AS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS EAST WEAKENS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN OR WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND AI-BASED TRACK AIDS.

OCTAVE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MODERATE AND STRONG LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS, WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT
PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH THROUGH THAT TIME. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS THEN
FORECAST BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS AS THE SHEAR RELAXES, ALTHOUGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS OCTAVE
REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY BY DAYS 3 AND 4, THOUGH THIS REMAINS
BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS FROM SOME REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS. BY DAY 5, WEAKENING SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY AS OCTAVE MOVES
INTO A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR MASS, OVER COOLER WATERS AROUND 26C,
AND EXPERIENCES INCREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE HCCA
AND FSSE INTENSITY AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 12.2N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 12.6N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 13.1N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 13.5N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 14.5N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 15.0N 123.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 15.7N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 16.0N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020241
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 01 2025

...OCTAVE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 117.0W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 117.0 West. Octave is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a general
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 020241
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0300 UTC THU OCT 02 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 117.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 117.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.6N 117.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.1N 119.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 123.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N 123.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 117.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 012043
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2025

IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION, THE STORM HAS BEEN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY
SINCE EARLIER TODAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS STRONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH TOPS TO AROUND -70 DEG C
WITH LIMITED BANDING FEATURES AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIMITED
ELSEWHERE, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS BEING AFFECTED BY SOME EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55
KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND
CLOSE TO AN AI-OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS.

OCTAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT
ABOUT 305/7 KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. AROUND THE END OF THE
PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A LARGER
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS, TVCN.

MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AFFECT OCTAVE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. THE SHEAR COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT BY
72 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR SOME STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S
CIRCULATION PROBABLY MAKES IT MORE RESPONSIVE TO POTENTIALLY LESS
CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS IN THE FUTURE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS,
IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.0N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.4N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 12.9N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.3N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 13.8N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 14.4N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 14.9N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 15.6N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 16.0N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 012041
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 01 2025

...OCTAVE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 116.3W
ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 116.3 West. Octave is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 012040
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
2100 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 116.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 116.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.4N 117.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.9N 118.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.3N 119.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 120.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.4N 122.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.9N 123.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.6N 124.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 011451
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM PDT Wed Oct 01 2025

...OCTAVE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 115.7W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 115.7 West. Octave is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest tonight into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 011452
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2025

OCTAVE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A BANDING FEATURE ALSO
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET
AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.
OBJECTIVE DVORAK AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THAT VALUE.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, OR AROUND 325/7 KT.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, A TURN TO THE NORTH INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED. AROUND DAY 5, OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO
TURN EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A MOIST
MID- TO LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT IN 2-3 DAYS, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING, AND THE SYSTEM COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
A HURRICANE. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE SUGGESTS THAT
IT COULD ALSO BE MORE RESPONSIVE TO LESS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS IN THE
FUTURE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE
AND LIES MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER PORTION OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 11.6N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 12.1N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 12.6N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 13.1N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.7N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 14.2N 121.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 14.9N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 15.9N 123.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 16.5N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 011451
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
1500 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 115.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 115.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.1N 116.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.6N 117.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.1N 118.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.7N 120.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.2N 121.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.9N 122.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.9N 123.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 010853
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM MST Wed Oct 01 2025

The satellite presentation of Octave has improved during the past
several hours, with a well-defined curved band now wrapping more
than halfway around the low-level center. This improvement in
structure appears to be due to a decrease in vertical wind shear,
which has lessened to around 16 kt according to the latest UW-CIMSS
analysis. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB also indicate a stronger system, both coming in
at 3.5/55 kt, while the UW-CIMSS objective estimates are lower,
ranging between 33 and 40 kt since the previous advisory. Based on
a blend of these data, and considering the improved satellite
presentation, the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt for
this advisory, which may be conservative.

Octave is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 335 degrees
at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue today as the
cyclone moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a
disturbance to its north. Once that disturbance is absorbed by
Octaves circulation, a mid-level ridge is forecast to become
re-established to the north of the cyclone, steering it westward to
west-northwestward from tonight through Saturday. By 120 hours,
Octave is expected to slow considerably and turn eastward as a
longwave trough approaches from the northwest and the subtropical
ridge to its east is eroded by a developing tropical cyclone
offshore of southwestern Mexico. The new NHC track forecast has
been shifted west of the previous one to account for the delay in
the cyclone turning toward the north-northwest and to better match
the latest guidance trends. The forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and is close to a blend of the GDMI, FSSE,
TVCE, and HCCA track aids.

Octave will remain over warm water and within a moist environment
for the next several days. However, vertical wind shear is forecast
to fluctuate between moderate and strong levels, which should hinder
significant intensification. Some additional strengthening is
possible today, followed by little change in intensity over the next
few days. Modest intensification could occur by days 4 and 5 as the
shear relaxes, although sea surface temperatures will be slightly
cooler and the mid-level environment less moist by that time.
Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low due to considerable
spread among the guidance. The official forecast has been adjusted
higher to account for the cyclones improved structure and is most
closely aligned with the SHIPS and LGEM intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.1N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 11.8N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 12.5N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.0N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 13.4N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 13.8N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 14.3N 121.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 15.3N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 16.0N 121.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 010852
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM MST Wed Oct 01 2025

...OCTAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 114.8W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 114.8 West. Octave is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn
toward the west-northwest tonight into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast today followed by little change in
strength during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 010852
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 114.8W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 114.8W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.5N 116.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.0N 117.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.4N 118.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 120.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.3N 121.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 15.3N 122.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 121.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.10.2025

HURRICANE IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2025 0 29.4N 74.8W 974 60
1200UTC 01.10.2025 12 30.6N 71.5W 965 62
0000UTC 02.10.2025 24 31.3N 66.7W 974 75
1200UTC 02.10.2025 36 33.1N 61.0W 976 67
0000UTC 03.10.2025 48 32.0N 56.5W 991 52
1200UTC 03.10.2025 60 32.0N 52.5W 997 52
0000UTC 04.10.2025 72 35.3N 49.2W 991 45
1200UTC 04.10.2025 84 38.8N 48.1W 984 47
0000UTC 05.10.2025 96 41.4N 46.7W 983 53
1200UTC 05.10.2025 108 42.8N 43.4W 982 47
0000UTC 06.10.2025 120 44.4N 40.3W 978 47
1200UTC 06.10.2025 132 47.1N 37.5W 977 49
0000UTC 07.10.2025 144 48.3N 33.8W 985 43
1200UTC 07.10.2025 156 50.4N 26.1W 994 39
0000UTC 08.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 34.5N 69.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2025 0 34.5N 69.1W 984 49
1200UTC 01.10.2025 12 36.1N 66.5W 981 70
0000UTC 02.10.2025 24 37.0N 60.0W 991 56
1200UTC 02.10.2025 36 38.8N 50.9W 991 44
0000UTC 03.10.2025 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2025 0 10.3N 113.9W 1006 30
1200UTC 01.10.2025 12 11.7N 114.4W 1007 27
0000UTC 02.10.2025 24 13.0N 115.4W 1005 23
1200UTC 02.10.2025 36 12.2N 117.4W 1006 28
0000UTC 03.10.2025 48 13.6N 118.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 03.10.2025 60 13.6N 120.9W 1005 26
0000UTC 04.10.2025 72 13.9N 122.3W 1005 25
1200UTC 04.10.2025 84 14.6N 124.7W 1005 28
0000UTC 05.10.2025 96 14.7N 126.0W 1004 29
1200UTC 05.10.2025 108 14.8N 127.1W 1004 31
0000UTC 06.10.2025 120 15.3N 127.5W 1002 29
1200UTC 06.10.2025 132 15.9N 126.8W 1002 33
0000UTC 07.10.2025 144 16.1N 125.7W 1003 30
1200UTC 07.10.2025 156 16.1N 125.0W 1005 24
0000UTC 08.10.2025 168 16.2N 124.4W 1006 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.9N 109.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2025 96 13.9N 109.3W 1004 27
1200UTC 05.10.2025 108 15.3N 109.2W 1003 28
0000UTC 06.10.2025 120 15.3N 109.6W 1001 31
1200UTC 06.10.2025 132 16.0N 110.4W 1000 33
0000UTC 07.10.2025 144 16.3N 111.5W 1000 35
1200UTC 07.10.2025 156 16.1N 112.3W 999 39
0000UTC 08.10.2025 168 16.4N 113.0W 998 39


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010406


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 010406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2025

HURRICANE IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2025 29.4N 74.8W STRONG
12UTC 01.10.2025 30.6N 71.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2025 31.3N 66.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2025 33.1N 61.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2025 32.0N 56.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.10.2025 32.0N 52.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2025 35.3N 49.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2025 38.8N 48.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2025 41.4N 46.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2025 42.8N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2025 44.4N 40.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2025 47.1N 37.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2025 48.3N 33.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2025 50.4N 26.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 34.5N 69.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2025 34.5N 69.1W MODERATE
12UTC 01.10.2025 36.1N 66.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2025 37.0N 60.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2025 38.8N 50.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2025 10.3N 113.9W WEAK
12UTC 01.10.2025 11.7N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2025 13.0N 115.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2025 12.2N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2025 13.6N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2025 13.6N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2025 13.9N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2025 14.6N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2025 14.7N 126.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2025 14.8N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2025 15.3N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 15.9N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2025 16.1N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2025 16.1N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2025 16.2N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.9N 109.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2025 13.9N 109.3W WEAK
12UTC 05.10.2025 15.3N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2025 15.3N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 16.0N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2025 16.3N 111.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2025 16.1N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2025 16.4N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010406


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 010257
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

Octave remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the coldest cloud
tops displaced to the south and west of the low-level center. The
latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates about 20 kt of
east-northeasterly shear over the system. Despite this shear,
convection has persisted near the low-level center, and the cyclone
continues to exhibit well-defined banding on its southern and
western sides. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 kt, while the UW-CIMSS objective
estimates have ranged from 33 to 41 kt since the previous advisory.
Based on a blend of these data, and given little change in the
overall satellite presentation during the past several hours, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

Octave is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340 degrees
at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue tonight and
Wednesday as the cyclone moves into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge created by a disturbance to its north. Once that disturbance
is absorbed by Octaves circulation, a mid-level ridge is forecast
to become re-established to the north of the cyclone, steering it
westward to west-northwestward from Wednesday night through
Saturday. By 120 hours, Octave is expected to slow considerably and
turn eastward as a longwave trough approaches from the northwest and
the subtropical ridge to its east is eroded by a developing tropical
cyclone offshore of southwestern Mexico. The new NHC track forecast
is very similar to the previous one through 72 hours and then
slightly westward by days 4 and 5, accounting for a westward shift
in the latest guidance. The forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope, close to the GDMI aid through 72 hours, and
roughly midway between the prior track and GDMI aid beyond that
time.

Octave will remain over warm waters and within a moist environment
for the next several days. However, moderate to strong
east-northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder
significant intensification. Some slight strengthening is possible
tonight, followed by little change in strength during the next
couple of days. Modest intensification is forecast by days 3 and 4
as the shear is expected to relax somewhat while the cyclone remains
over warm waters. By day 5, slight weakening is anticipated as
Octave moves into a drier mid-level environment and over cooler
waters near 26C. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low
beyond day 3 due to considerable spread among the guidance. The
official forecast is closest to the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance and
is very similar to the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 10.8N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.6N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 12.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 13.0N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 13.5N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 13.9N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.4N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 15.0N 121.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 15.8N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 010254
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

...OCTAVE HEADING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 114.4W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 114.4 West. Octave is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so,
followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest Wednesday night
into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast tonight followed by little change
in strength during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 010253
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0300 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 114.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 114.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.6N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.5N 115.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 116.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.5N 117.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.9N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.4N 120.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 114.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 302044
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2025

OCTAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH CURVED BANDS FORMING PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF
THE SMALL CYCLONE. THE WIND FIELD APPEARS SO SMALL THAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA LARGELY MISSED THE SMALL CIRCULATION IN THE
NARROW 100 N MI GAP BETWEEN PASSES. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB, AND T2.5/35 KT FROM
TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT THIS ADVISORY, A
BLEND OF THE TWO ESTIMATES, AND NEAR THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE OF
T2.8/41 KT AND D-PRINT ESTIMATE OF 40 KT.

OCTAVE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, WITH THE LATEST MOTION
ESTIMATED AT 320/4 KT. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS OCTAVE INTERACTS WITH THE
REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY OF ANOTHER SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT IS
PASSING THE SYSTEM BY TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
OCTAVE QUICKLY ABSORBING THE WEAKER SYSTEM, AND AFTER THAT IS
COMPLETE, LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN, RESULTING IN THE
CYCLONE TURNING BACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM 36-72 H. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST, STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ERODES THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED TO THE EAST OF OCTAVE. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE, THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WESTWARD, AND THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST EARLY ON, BUT
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH IT
REMAINS EAST OF THE LATEST HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN
(GDMI).

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN ABLE TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE TODAY DESPITE
BEING UNDER 20-25 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, AND THUS ONLY
A SLIGHT BIT OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A PAUSE IN STRENGTHENING. AFTER 60 H, SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT, AND HOW MUCH THE STORM IS ABLE TO INTENSIFY
WILL BE RELATED TO ITS STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS. OCTAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE, SO ITS POSSIBLE IT
COULD BE PRONE TO MORE RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES (BOTH UP OR DOWN)
THAN SHOWN HERE. FOR NOW, THE INTENSITY WAS BUMPED UP A LITTLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT REMAINS MUCH LOWER THAN
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE (HWRF,
HAFS-A) WHICH DEVELOP AN INNER CORE WITH OCTAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO
THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 10.2N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 10.8N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.6N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 13.0N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 13.6N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.0N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 14.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.5N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 302043
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2025

...OCTAVE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO STAY OUT TO SEA OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 113.9W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK
WHERE SOME MORE STRENGTHENING CAN RESUME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 302041
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
2100 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 113.9W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 113.9W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 115.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.0N 116.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.6N 117.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 15SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.5N 120.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 301443
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 113.5W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 113.5 West. Octave is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest or north is forecast later today, followed by a turn
toward the west-northwest Thursday evening into the weekend. A
gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected late this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next
few days followed by some strengthening toward the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 301444
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2025

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS MORNING, WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS (-80C CMG) DEVELOPING OVER THE
SURFACE CENTER, AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND LOCATED IN THE
EAST SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0 AND T3.0, AND THE UW-CIMSS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSES RANGE FROM 34-39 KT. BASED ON A BLEND
OF THESE DATA AND THE CYCLONE'S IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT, UPGRADING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E TO TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE.

ALTHOUGH OCTAVE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM OCEANIC SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND MOVE WITHIN A SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY,
THE FORECAST REFLECTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
AFTERWARD, THE STATISTICAL DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DIMINISH SOME, ALLOWING
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAY 5, AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

OCTAVE'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR
325/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-TROPOSPHERIC CUT-OFF
LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD OCTAVE. BEYOND THE 60 HOUR PERIOD,
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHILE THE CUT-OFF MENTIONED ABOVE WEAKENS AND ULTIMATELY
DISSIPATES. BY DAY 5, THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT OCTAVE WILL
SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST, WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE ERODES.
THE NHC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS AND HAS
BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 36
HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 9.9N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 10.4N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 11.3N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 12.3N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 12.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 13.4N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 13.8N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 15.6N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 301443
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 113.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 113.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.4N 113.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.3N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.3N 114.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.9N 115.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.4N 116.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.8N 117.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.6N 119.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 300833
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2025

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND. IN ADDITION, A RECENT 0355 UTC METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF 30-KT WIND BARBS. AS A
RESULT, THE SYSTEM HAS MET THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.0/30 KT AND 2.5/35 KT, RESPECTIVELY. BASED
ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

FIFTEEN-E IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
295 DEGREES AT 4 KT. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A WEAK LOW TO THE NORTH
OF FIFTEEN-E ERODES THE RIDGE, WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STEER
FIFTEEN-E WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS AID.

FIFTEEN-E WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT MODERATE TO STRONG
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HINDER
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND FIFTEEN-E IS EXPECTED TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY SOME
MODEST STRENGTHENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX SLIGHTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSEST TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND HCCA INTENSITY AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 9.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 9.8N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 10.8N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 11.8N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 12.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 13.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 13.5N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 15.0N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 300831
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 113.2W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 113.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7
km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today. A motion
toward the north-northwest is forecast later today through early
Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late
Thursday into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast today, with Fifteen-E expected to
become a tropical storm later today, followed by little change in
strength during the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 300831
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 113.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 113.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 9.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.8N 114.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.8N 114.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.1N 116.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.5N 117.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 15.0N 120.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=