Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-25
in Mexico

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Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 102033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025

...PRISCILLA NOW A REMNANT LOW...
...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 115.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.4
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6
MPH (9 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES BY EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: AS PRISCILLA MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTAL MAXIMA TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, WITH SCATTERED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN
UTAH, SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PRISCILLA.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 102033
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025

PRISCILLA HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY,
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION. SINCE DEEP CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN, PRISCILLA IS NOW DESIGNATED A REMNANT
LOW AND THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 KT, AND THAT MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES BY EARLY SATURDAY.

EVEN THOUGH PRISCILLA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE, ITS REMNANT
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO. PLEASE MONITOR FORECASTS AND UPDATES FROM LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT
WEATHER.GOV AND FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AT
WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 26.3N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0600Z 26.8N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 102032
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
2100 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 115.4W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 115.4W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 115.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PRISCILLA.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 101601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 45.7N 31.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2025 0 45.7N 31.7W 1004 31
0000UTC 11.10.2025 12 47.8N 29.8W 1008 29
1200UTC 11.10.2025 24 51.4N 28.2W 1011 30
0000UTC 12.10.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 104.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2025 0 17.4N 104.5W 1000 45
0000UTC 11.10.2025 12 19.0N 106.6W 1000 40
1200UTC 11.10.2025 24 20.9N 108.8W 1002 32
0000UTC 12.10.2025 36 22.4N 110.0W 1003 30
1200UTC 12.10.2025 48 24.5N 110.0W 1004 27
0000UTC 13.10.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 63.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2025 0 20.2N 63.2W 1009 41
0000UTC 11.10.2025 12 23.1N 63.0W 1007 43
1200UTC 11.10.2025 24 25.9N 62.8W 1006 42
0000UTC 12.10.2025 36 28.6N 62.9W 1005 39
1200UTC 12.10.2025 48 30.3N 62.8W 1007 35
0000UTC 13.10.2025 60 31.7N 61.7W 1008 31
1200UTC 13.10.2025 72 31.7N 58.9W 1010 28
0000UTC 14.10.2025 84 30.8N 55.8W 1009 28
1200UTC 14.10.2025 96 29.6N 53.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 15.10.2025 108 29.5N 52.7W 1006 24
1200UTC 15.10.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 115.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2025 0 25.6N 115.3W 1001 32
0000UTC 11.10.2025 12 26.4N 115.1W 1005 27
1200UTC 11.10.2025 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 36.9N 70.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2025 72 38.2N 69.5W 1001 43
0000UTC 14.10.2025 84 39.0N 70.8W 1001 44
1200UTC 14.10.2025 96 40.5N 69.1W 999 42
0000UTC 15.10.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 8.1N 124.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2025 120 8.0N 124.9W 1008 24
0000UTC 16.10.2025 132 7.7N 126.3W 1007 24
1200UTC 16.10.2025 144 7.6N 127.6W 1007 24
0000UTC 17.10.2025 156 7.6N 128.7W 1006 24
1200UTC 17.10.2025 168 8.0N 129.5W 1007 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101601


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 101601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 45.7N 31.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2025 45.7N 31.7W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2025 47.8N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 51.4N 28.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 104.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2025 17.4N 104.5W MODERATE
00UTC 11.10.2025 19.0N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 20.9N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 22.4N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2025 24.5N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 63.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2025 20.2N 63.2W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2025 23.1N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 25.9N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 28.6N 62.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2025 30.3N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 31.7N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2025 31.7N 58.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2025 30.8N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2025 29.6N 53.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2025 29.5N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 115.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2025 25.6N 115.3W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2025 26.4N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 36.9N 70.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2025 38.2N 69.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.10.2025 39.0N 70.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2025 40.5N 69.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 8.1N 124.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2025 8.0N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2025 7.7N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2025 7.6N 127.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2025 7.6N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2025 8.0N 129.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101601


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 101442
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...PRISCILLA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR..
...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 115.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 115.2 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) This general motion
will continue today, with a turn toward the north-northeast expected
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected
to remain offshore of the coast of Baja California Sur, and
dissipate by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, with Priscilla
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and
dissipate by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California,
up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California
peninsula. For the southwestern United States, 2 to 4 inches of
rain, with local storm total maxima to 6 inches, are expected across
portions of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and
southwest Colorado through Saturday. Flash flooding is likely in
portions of central Arizona and southwest Utah, with scattered areas
of flash flooding expected across the remainder of Arizona, southern
Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to
some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 101442
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF PRISCILLA
HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED THIS MORNING. THE DEGRADATION IS DUE
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, AND DRIER AIR, AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT. USING THESE ESTIMATES,
IN COMBINATION WITH THE SCATTEROMETER DATA OVERNIGHT, AND RECENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

PRISCILLA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
360/5 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS.

ALTHOUGH PRISCILLA HAS BEEN RESILIENT, IT SEEMS TO BE SUCCUMBING TO
THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OF 20 TO 30 KT, WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE FURTHER
WEAKENING. CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTED TO DISSIPATE AND GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION BY
TONIGHT AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY SATURDAY. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE TRENDS WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN 12H, AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 24H.

REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA REMAINS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH,
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. PLEASE
MONITOR FORECASTS AND UPDATES FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT WEATHER.GOV AND FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER AT WPC.NCEP.GOV.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 25.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.5N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 101441
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 115.2W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 115.2W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.5N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 100837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025

...PRISCILLA STILL A TROPICAL STORM...
...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 115.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND
DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, WITH PRISCILLA EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: AS PRISCILLA MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTAL MAXIMA TO 6 INCHES, ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHERN
UTAH, AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO
SOME COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 100838
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025

PRISCILLA REMAINS A RESILIENT TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY THIS MORNING
DESPITE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS NEAR 24C. SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT, LIKELY
DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED BY
UW-CIMSS, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW POSITIONED ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5/35 KT AND 3.5/55 KT,
RESPECTIVELY, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED FROM 35
TO 54 KT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF
40-KT WINDS, WITH A PEAK WIND VECTOR OF 41 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PRISCILLA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD, OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE CYCLONE IS
STEERED BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE
PREVIOUS TRACK PREDICTION.

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER COOL WATERS AND A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING OF PRISCILLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWS
PRISCILLA LOSING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS, WITH BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY 36
HOURS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR PRISCILLA TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED
BY 36 HOURS.

REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA REMAINS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH,
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. PLEASE
MONITOR FORECASTS AND UPDATES FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT WEATHER.GOV AND FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER AT WPC.NCEP.GOV.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 25.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 26.0N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 26.5N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 100837
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 115.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 60SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 115.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 115.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.5N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 100236
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Priscilla has proven to be a resilient tropical cyclone this
evening, despite moving over cool waters near 24C. Since the
previous advisory, the system has maintained a well-defined curved
band that wraps more than halfway around the center. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.5/35
kt and 3.5/55 kt, respectively. Based on a blend of these data,
along with the large area of 40-kt winds noted in a scatterometer
pass earlier today and some improvement in the cyclones structure,
the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.

Priscilla is moving north-northwest, or 345 degrees, at 7 kt. A
turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected
tonight through Friday as the cyclone moves between a longwave
trough to its northwest and a mid- to upper-level ridge over Texas
and northern Mexico. A turn toward the northeast is forecast after
24 hours as the system becomes shallower and increasingly steered by
the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast lies close to a
blend of the previous advisory and the multi-model consensus aids.

Priscilla will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a
drier mid-level environment during the next day or so, while also
encountering increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. These
factors should result in steady weakening. Simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicates that Priscilla will lose
its deep convection within about 12 hours, with both models showing
the system degenerating into a trough by 48 hours, if not sooner.
The NHC intensity forecast calls for Priscilla to become a
post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, with dissipation expected
by 48 hours.

Remnant moisture associated with Priscilla remains the primary
hazard across portions of southwestern United States. Heavy
rainfall and flash flooding are likely into the weekend over parts
of central Arizona, with scattered areas of flash flooding possible
across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwestern
Colorado, and far northwestern New Mexico. Please monitor forecasts
and updates from local National Weather Service offices in the
southwest U.S. at weather.gov and from the Weather Prediction Center
at wpc.ncep.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 25.1N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 25.8N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 26.4N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1200Z 26.8N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 100235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 09 2025

...PRISCILLA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 115.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 115.0 West. Priscilla
is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected later
tonight through Friday. A turn toward the northeast is expected
Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is
expected to remain offshore of the coast of Baja California Sur, and
dissipate by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, with Priscilla expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low on Friday and dissipate by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves offshore of the west coast of Baja
California, up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja
California peninsula. For the southwestern United States, 2 to 4
inches of rain, with local storm total maxima to 6 inches, are
expected across portions of central and northern Arizona, southern
Utah, and southwest Colorado through Saturday. Flash flooding is
likely in portions of central Arizona, with scattered areas of
flash flooding expected across the remainder of Arizona, southern
Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to
some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 100235
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 115.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 90SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 115.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.8N 115.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.4N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.8N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 115.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 092043
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST THU OCT 09 2025

...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 114.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. PRISCILLA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: AS PRISCILLA MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTAL MAXIMA TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, SOUTHWEST
COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF


SURF: LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION
TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 092044
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST THU OCT 09 2025

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA HAS MADE A SLIGHT
COMEBACK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -60C IN A FEW
CLUSTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. DATA
FROM A SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED HIGHEST
WINDS NEAR 40 KT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER
DATA AND THE SLIGHT RESURGENCE IN CONVECTION. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE
TO THE MEAN OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

THE STORM CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 330/7 KT. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN
AND BECOMES A SHALLOW VORTEX, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DISSIPATE JUST
OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

PRISCILLA IS MOVING OVER SSTS OF AROUND 24 DEG C AND WILL LIKELY
TRAVERSE A LITTLE COOLER WATERS TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH A RATHER DRY LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL AIR MASS, SHOULD LEAD TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO A
REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE.

REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA REMAINS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN
UTAH, SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. PLEASE
FOLLOW FORECAST UPDATES FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT WEATHER.GOV AND THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AT WPC.NCEP.GOV

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 25.2N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 26.2N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0600Z 26.9N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 27.5N 114.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 092043
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
2100 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.2N 115.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.2N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.9N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 091441
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM MST THU OCT 09 2025

INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PRISCILLA
CONTINUES TO LOSE DEEP CONVECTION WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DRIER AIR HAS WRAPPED INTO THE INNER CORE,
WITH ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION REMAINING IN OUTER RAINBANDS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE, AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PRISCILLA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
330/7 KT. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A SHALLOW
VORTEX, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN, STALL, AND DISSIPATE OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALONG THE TRACK OF
PRISCILLA, WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MIXING INTO THE CENTER. A
WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AND PRISCILLA IS ANTICIPATED
TO STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PRISCILLA BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH, IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE WITH WANING CONVECTION
PRISCILLA COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE, AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA REMAINS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN
UTAH, SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. PLEASE
FOLLOW FORECAST UPDATES FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT WEATHER.GOV AND THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AT WPC.NCEP.GOV


KEY MESSAGES:

1. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA,
SOUTHERN UTAH, SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SATURDAY.

2. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION
TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 23.8N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 24.8N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 25.9N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 11/0000Z 26.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 091438
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025

...PRISCILLA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 114.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your local national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 114.7 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north is anticipated later today and tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move
parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Gusty winds will be possible along the west coast of Baja
California Sur today.

RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California,
up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California
peninsula. For the southwestern United States, 2 to 4 inches of
rain, with local storm total maxima to 6 inches, are expected across
portions of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and
southwest Colorado through Saturday. Flash flooding is likely in
portions of central Arizona, with scattered areas of flash flooding
expected across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest
Colorado, and far northwest New Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition
to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 091438
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1500 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 114.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 114.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 114.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.8N 115.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.9N 115.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.7N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 114.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 091148
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
500 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025

...PRISCILLA OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 114.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 114.5 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is anticipated later today and tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move
parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur
through today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area for the next few
hours.

RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California,
up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California
peninsula. For the southwestern United States, 2 to 4 inches of
rain, with local storm total maxima to 6 inches, are expected across
portions of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and
southwest Colorado through Saturday afternoon. Numerous occurrences
of flash flooding are anticipated in central Arizona, with scattered
instances of flash flooding expected across the remainder of
Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New
Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition
to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 090845
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025

Priscilla has been gradually losing its organized deep convection
overnight. As a result, objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates have fallen, and the initial intensity is
lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. While scatterometer data did
not measure the core of the storm, it did show tropical-storm-force
winds about 40 miles offshore of Baja California Sur. The wind
radii have been adjusted accordingly.

The estimated motion is northwestward at 7 kt. As Priscilla becomes
a shallow vortex, it is expected to turn north-northwestward later
this morning in the low-level flow. By Friday, the system should
slow and drift northward, stalling off the coast of the Baja
California Peninsula until the circulation opens into a trough.

The storm has moved over the 26 degree C isotherm toward
progressively cooler waters. Mid-level humidities are also falling,
and vertical wind shear is forecast to increase substantially.
These atmospheric and oceanic conditions should accelerate
Priscilla's transition into a post-tropical cyclone. The latest NHC
intensity forecast now calls for Priscilla to become a post-tropical
cyclone in 24 hours and dissipate off the coast of Baja California
in a couple of days or so.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Baja California
Sur Pacific coastline within the Tropical Storm Watch area for the
next several hours. Interests elsewhere in the Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla.

2. Moisture associated with Priscilla will lead to heavy rainfall
and a flash flood risk across portions of Arizona, southern Utah,
through the Four Corners into southwest Colorado and far northwest
New Mexico through Saturday.

3. Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of the coast of
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition
to some coastal flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 23.3N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.3N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 10/1800Z 26.4N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 27.0N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090844
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025

...PRISCILLA OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 114.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 114.1 West. Priscilla
is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north later today or tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel
to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur through today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area for the next several
hours.

RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California,
up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California
peninsula. For the southwestern United States, 2 to 4 inches of
rain, with local storm total maxima to 6 inches, are expected across
portions of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and
southwest Colorado through Saturday afternoon. Numerous occurrences
of flash flooding are anticipated in central Arizona, with scattered
instances of flash flooding expected across the remainder of
Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New
Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition
to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 090844
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0900 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 114.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....175NE 210SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 114.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 114.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.4N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 114.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090552
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
1100 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

...PRISCILLA OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. SOUTHWEST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 113.9W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla
was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 113.9 West.
Priscilla is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a
turn toward the north is expected tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but
offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur through today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to become
a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area for the next several
hours.

RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California,
up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California
peninsula. Farther north across the southwestern United States,
heavy rain from Priscillas moisture is expected to lead to 2 to 4
inches, with local storm total amounts to 6 inches, across portions
of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and southwest
Colorado through Saturday afternoon. Scattered occurrences of flash
flooding are anticipated from central Arizona across southern Utah
across the Four Corners into southwest Colorado and far northwest
New Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition
to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 090233
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

Some convection has re-developed in association with Priscilla,
mainly in disorganized bands well removed from the center. This
convection is not well-enough organized to keep the satellite
intensity estimates from decreasing. Based on these decreases since
the previous advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to 50 kt.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/8 kt. As
mentioned previously, Priscilla is moving along the southwestern
side of a mid-level high pressure ridge near the Texas/Mexico
border. In 24 h or so, a large mid-latitude trough or cutoff low
near the California coast should cause a northward turn. By 48 h,
Priscilla will likely have weakened into a shallow cyclone steered
by the low-level flow, which is rather weak. The track guidance has
not changed significantly since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is very similar to the previous track.

The forecast track takes Priscilla over colder sea surface
temperatures and into a drier environment, and these factors should
cause continued weakening. The latest simulated satellite imagery
from the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the cyclone to stop producing
convection in about 36 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for
the system to decay to a remnant low at that time. The remnant low
is still shown as dissipating by 72 h in agreement with the global
models. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Baja California
Sur Pacific coastline within the Tropical Storm Watch area for the
next several hours. Interests elsewhere in the Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla.

2. Moisture associated with Priscilla will lead to heavy rainfall
and a flash flood risk across portions of Arizona, southern Utah,
through the Four Corners into southwest Colorado and far northwest
New Mexico from Thursday into Saturday.

3. Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of the coast of
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition
to some coastal flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 22.6N 113.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 23.4N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 24.6N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 25.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 26.5N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1200Z 27.2N 114.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 090232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0300 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 113.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....200NE 270SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 113.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.4N 114.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.6N 115.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.5N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.2N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 113.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

...PRISCILLA GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING
ACROSS THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 113.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 113.6 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the
north is expected Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the
coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to become
a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. Puerto Cortes, Mexico, recently reported a wind
gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area for the next several
hours.

RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California,
up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California
peninsula. Farther north across the southwestern United States,
heavy rain from Priscilla’s moisture is expected to lead to 2 to 4
inches, with local storm total amounts to 6 inches, across portions
of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and southwest
Colorado from Thursday into Saturday afternoon. Scattered
occurrences of flash flooding are anticipated from central Arizona
across southern Utah across the Four Corners into southwest Colorado
and far northwest New Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition
to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 082330
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
500 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

...PRISCILLA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND BRINGING HIGH SURF AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING
ACROSS THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 113.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 113.3 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the
north is expected Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the
coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to become
a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area through this evening.

RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California,
up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California
peninsula. Farther north across the southwestern United States,
heavy rain from Priscillas moisture is expected to lead to 2 to 4
inches, with local storm total amounts to 6 inches, across portions
of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and southwest
Colorado from Thursday into Saturday afternoon. Scattered
occurrences of flash flooding are anticipated from central Arizona
across southern Utah across the Four Corners into southwest Colorado
and far northwest New Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition
to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 082035
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST WED OCT 08 2025

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PRISCILLA HAS FALLEN APART QUICKLY
OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHED. THE LATEST CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
65 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE
DECREASED TO THE 47-53 KT RANGE. AN ASCAT-C PASS FROM 1750 UTC
SHOWED PEAK VECTORS OF 55 KT. GIVEN THE LOW BIAS DUE TO THE
RESOLUTION OF THIS INSTRUMENT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 315 DEGREES AT 7
KT. PRISCILLA IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. IN 24-36 HOURS OR
SO, A LARGE TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD
INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. BY 48 HOURS, PRISCILLA WILL LIKELY
HAVE WEAKENED INTO A SHALLOW CYCLONE MOVING IN THE LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST, AND
LIES CLOSE TO THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA) APPROACH.

WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG PRISCILLA'S PATH ARE QUICKLY DECREASING.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26 DEGREE C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT
12 HOURS. PRISCILLA IS ALSO MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY
ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
THE STORM LOSING ITS CONVECTION AND DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS, BUT GIVEN HOW THE CONVECTION LOOKS NOW, IT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF THIS OCCURRED SOONER. THE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY HOUR 72.
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA THOUGH
THIS EVENING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FLASH FLOOD RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH,
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

3. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.0N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 25.3N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 26.3N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0600Z 27.0N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 082034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 PM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

...PRISCILLA BRINGING HIGH SURF AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING
ACROSS THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 113.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 113.0 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn
toward the north Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the
coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to become
a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area through this evening.

RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California,
up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California
peninsula. Farther north across the southwestern United States,
heavy rain from Priscilla’s moisture is expected to lead to 2 to 4
inches, with local storm total amounts to 6 inches, across portions
of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and southwest
Colorado from Thursday into Saturday afternoon. Scattered
occurrences of flash flooding are anticipated from central Arizona
across southern Utah across the Four Corners into southwest Colorado
and far northwest New Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition
to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 082034
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
2100 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.0W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 112.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 114.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.3N 115.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.3N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 113.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 081736
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
1100 AM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

...PRISCILLA BRINGING HIGH SURF AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING
ACROSS THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 112.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla
was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 112.7 West.
Priscilla is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday,
followed by a turn toward the north Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but
offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area today.

RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California,
up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California
peninsula. Farther north across the southwestern United States,
heavy rain from Priscilla’s moisture is expected to lead to 2 to 4
inches, with local storm total amounts to 6 inches, across portions
of central and northern Arizona and southern Utah from Thursday into
Saturday morning. Scattered occurrences of flash flooding are
anticipated from central Arizona across southern Utah and the Four
Corners into southwest Colorado and far northwest New Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 081456
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM MST WED OCT 08 2025

PRISCILLA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT, AND THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS ALSO
DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SUBJECTIVE CI NUMBERS WERE 75
KT AT 12Z, BUT THE FINAL-T NUMBERS WERE 55 KT. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE DECREASED TO THE 60-70 KT RANGE.
DESPITE THE APPEARANCE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FALLING APART, A
RECENT 37 GHZ GPM PASS SUGGESTS THAT PRISCILLA MAY STILL BE FAIRLY
POWERFUL IN THE LOW-LEVELS, BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL, SO I HAVE ONLY
BROUGHT THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 65 KT, MAINTAINING PRISCILLA AS A
HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY. PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310 DEGREES
AT 6 KT. PRISCILLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. IN 36 HOURS OR SO, A LARGE TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. BY 60
HOURS, PRISCILLA WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED INTO A SHALLOW CYCLONE
MOVING IN THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 H,
BUT IS NOTABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH AT 60-72 H, AND LIES CLOSE
TO THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA) APPROACH.

PRISCILLA HAS WEAKENED FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED SO FAR, POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED UPWELLING OF COOL WATER DUE TO THE CYCLONE'S SLOW
MOTION. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE
ALONG PRISCILLA'S PATH, REACHING 26 DEGREES C IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.
PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 60
HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION JUST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST DUE TO THE
LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY, AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FLASH FLOOD RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA, UTAH, THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 21.4N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.2N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 23.3N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 24.6N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.9N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 26.8N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1200Z 27.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 081451
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM MST WED OCT 08 2025

...PRISCILLA BRINGING HIGH SURF AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 112.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO CABO SAN LAZARO,
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
(260 KM). LOS CABOS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO,
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH (61 KM/H) WITH A GUST
TO 49 MPH (79 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL: AS PRISCILLA MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES,
HEAVY RAIN FROM PRISCILLAA S MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO 2 TO 4
INCHES, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 081451
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1500 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 112.5W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 112.5W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.2N 113.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.3N 114.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.6N 115.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.9N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.8N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.7N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 112.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 081152
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
500 AM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

...PRISCILLA BRINGING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 112.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 112.2 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, followed by
a turn toward the north Thursday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore
of, the coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Los Cabos International Airport in Cabo San Lucas,
Mexico, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with
a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area today.

RAINFALL: Moisture associated with Priscilla will lead to locally
heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk across portions of the Baja
California peninsula during the next couple of days and over
portions of the southwestern United States from late this week
into this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 080839
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 AM MST Wed Oct 08 2025

...PRISCILLA BRINGING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 112.0W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 112.0 West. Priscilla
is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the north Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but
offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area today.

RAINFALL: Moisture associated with Priscilla will lead to locally
heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk across portions of the Baja
California peninsula during the next couple of days and over
portions of the southwestern United States from late this week
into this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 080840
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 AM MST WED OCT 08 2025

ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A HURRICANE, PRISCILLA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, AND THE EYE
HAS BECOME POORLY-DEFINED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO -60 TO -70 DEG
C. USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI- AND T-NUMBERS, THE
INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, OR AROUND 305/7
KT. PRISCILLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR TEXAS. IN 48 HOURS OR
SO, A LARGE TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD
INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. BY 72 HOURS, PRISCILLA WILL LIKELY
HAVE WEAKENED INTO A SHALLOW CYCLONE MOVING IN THE LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE
SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND IS
QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

PRISCILLA HAS WEAKENED WHILE MOVING OVER OCEAN WATERS THAT HAVE
LIKELY BEEN COOLED BY UPWELLING BENEATH THE LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRAVERSE EVEN COOLER WATERS TO
THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
RESULTING IN STEADY WEAKENING. PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE, SUGGESTING
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FLASH FLOOD RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 21.0N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.8N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.2N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 26.8N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 27.9N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 080839
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0900 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.0W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 130SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 270SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.0W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 113.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 115.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.8N 115.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.9N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 112.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 080540
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PRISCILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1100 PM MST TUE OCT 07 2025

...HIGH SURF EXPECTED AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT DAY AS PRISCILLA MOVES PARALLEL
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 111.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO CABO SAN LAZARO,
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. PRISCILLA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT
OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES (315 KM). A WEATHER STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND, LOCATED ABOUT
155 MILES (250 KM) SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PRISCILLA'S EYE, RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 36 MPH (57 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB (28.41 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL: 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTALS UP TO 4
INCHES AS THE OUTER BANDS OF PRISCILLA REACH THE AREA. THIS
RAINFALL COULD BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA SHOULD BRING 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES, TO PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE
AREAA S TERRAIN. FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, MOISTURE
FROM PRISCILLA LEADS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD RISK OVER
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 080238
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 PM MST TUE OCT 07 2025

WHILE PRISCILLA REMAINS A LARGE AND FORMIDABLE HURRICANE, ITS
SATELLITE STRUCTURE IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DECAY. THE EYEWALL
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 3-6 HOURS, AND THE
LAST SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS NOW OPEN TO THE
NORTH. SOME OF THESE CHANGES COULD BE DUE TO OCEAN UPWELLING, WHICH
THE HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO OCCUR IN THE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM WATERS THE LARGE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
TRAVERSING THROUGH. WHILE BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CI ESTIMATES WERE
CONSTRAINED AT T5.5/102-KT, THEIR DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECLINED, AND
BASED ON THE FURTHER DEGRADATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT
TIME, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY,
WHICH IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

PRISCILLA HAS RESUMED A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, ESTIMATED AT
310/8 KT. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED, WITH A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR PACE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. THE RIDGING THEN BECOMES ERODED AND
SHIFTED EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA,
DIGS IN SOUTHWARD AND ULTIMATELY CUTS OFF JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WESTERN U.S. COASTLINE. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE
PRISCILLA TO TURN NORTHWARD FROM 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND MAY NOT FEEL THE FULL
EFFECTS OF THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL STEERING, ULTIMATELY SLOWING DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS
CYCLE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE RIGHTWARD, WITH THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI) AID A NOTABLE RIGHTWARD OUTLIER. THE NHC TRACK
WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE RIGHT, BUT NOT AS FAR RIGHT AS GDMI, STAYING
BETWEEN IT AND THE RELIABLE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA)
AID. IT IS WORTH NOTING THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ALONG TRACK SPREAD
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN 48-72 H, SO THE FORWARD MOTION AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

THE HURRICANE APPEARS PAST ITS PEAK TONIGHT WITH THE RECENT
STRUCTURAL DECLINE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE SHIPS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) UNDER THE HURRICANE SHOULD
BE IN THE 28 C RANGE, THE HAFS-A/B AND HWRF SSTS FORECAST OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THE LARGE HURRICANE HAS UPWELLED MUCH COOLER OCEAN WATERS
THAT MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE SATELLITE-BASED SST METHODS TO
PROPERLY DEPICT. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
AIDS, SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS PRISCILLA
MOVES INTO EVEN COOLER SSTS. SHEAR ALSO INCREASES QUICKLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS, AND BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW PRISCILLA'S
REMAINING CONVECTION SHEARING OFF IN 72 H, WHICH WILL MARK WHEN THE
NHC FORECAST SHOWS PRISCILLA AS A REMNANT LOW NEAR TO THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW
DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA
WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.6N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.4N 112.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.6N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 23.7N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 24.9N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 26.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 27.4N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 080235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 PM MST TUE OCT 07 2025

...HIGH SURF EXPECTED AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT DAY AS PRISCILLA PARALLELS THE
PACIFIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 111.5W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO CABO SAN LAZARO,
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES
(315 KM). A WEATHER STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND, LOCATED ABOUT 130
MILES (205 KM) SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PRISCILLA'S EYE, RECENTLY REPORTED
A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH (87 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB (28.41 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL: 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTALS UP TO 4
INCHES AS THE OUTER BANDS OF PRISCILLA REACH THE AREA . THIS
RAINFALL COULD BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA SHOULD BRING 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES, TO PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE
AREAA S TERRAIN. FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, MOISTURE
FROM PRISCILLA LEADS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD RISK OVER
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 080234
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 130SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 300SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 112.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.6N 113.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.7N 114.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.9N 115.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.3N 115.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.4N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 111.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 072339
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
500 PM MST Tue Oct 07 2025

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR AS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AFFECTS THIS AREA AND MUCH OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 111.2W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 111.2 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn
toward the north Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the
coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through the
rest of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). A weather station on Socorro island, located about 105
miles (170 km) south of Priscilla's eye, recently reported a
sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust of 73 mph (117 km/h).
An elevated station near Cabo San Lucas in Baja California Sur also
recently reported a wind gust of 57 mph (92 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area later today through
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: From today into Wednesday, 1 to 2 inches of rain are
expected in southern Baja California Sur, with local storm totals up
to 4 inches as the outer bands of Priscilla reach the area. This
rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas
of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla should bring 1 to 2
inches of rain, with local amounts to 4 inches, to portions of
west-central Mexico, which could lead to flash flooding within the
area’s terrain. From late this week into this weekend, moisture
from Priscilla may lead to heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk
over portions of the U.S. Desert Southwest.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 072038
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST TUE OCT 07 2025

PRISCILLA'S STRUCTURE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FROM 6 HOURS AGO. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A LARGE EYE, ABOUT 50 N MI IN
DIAMETER. A RING OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60
DEGREES C COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE EYE AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 40 N MI.
EARLIER, A RING WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C BRIEFLY SURROUNDED
THE EYE. THE EYE ITSELF IS A BIT MESSY WITH LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON
GOES-18 1-MINUTE IMAGERY SWIRLING INSIDE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE MOSTLY RANGING FROM 95-108 KT.
GIVEN THE LARGE AND BROAD NATURE OF THE EYE AND EYEWALL, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 95 KT, NEAR THE LOWER END OF THE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, PRISCILLA SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OR
POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATERS AND IN A MOIST, MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER THAT, THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS,
REACHING THE 26 DEGREE C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN 36
HOURS. PRISCILLA WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT AS IT
GAINS LATITUDE. THEREFORE, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE OVER THE CYCLONE IN 3 DAYS, AND SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT PRISCILLA SHOULD
LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AFTER 72 HOURS,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HURRICANE HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS
PRISCILLA MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO, BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF, THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF PRISCILLA. THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD
INDUCE A NORTHWARD TURN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 H,
BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER
THAT TIME, AS PRISCILLA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
36 H, MAINLY DUE TO THE FARTHER WEST INITIAL POSITION. THEREAFTER,
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES
IN BETWEEN THE LATEST GFEX AND HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA)
SOLUTIONS.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ITS MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM TODAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 19.9N 110.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.7N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.8N 113.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 24.2N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 26.7N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 29.3N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 072034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 PM MST Tue Oct 07 2025

...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 110.8W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 110.8 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the north Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but
offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through the
rest of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). Socorro island, located about 70 miles (115 km) south of
Priscilla's eye, recently recorded a sustained wind of 54 mph
(88 km/h) with a gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area later today through
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: From today into Wednesday, 1 to 2 inches of rain are
expected in southern Baja California Sur, with local storm totals up
to 4 inches as the outer bands of Priscilla reach the area. This
rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas
of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla should bring 1 to 2
inches of rain, with local amounts to 4 inches, to portions of
west-central Mexico, which could lead to flash flooding within the
area’s terrain. From late this week into this weekend, moisture
from Priscilla leads to heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk over
portions of the U.S. Desert Southwest.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 072033
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 130SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.7N 111.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 113.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 115.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 29.3N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 110.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 071739
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
1100 AM MST Tue Oct 07 2025

...LARGE EYE OF PRISCILLA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS OUTER BANDS
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 110.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.6 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the north Thursday night or Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel
to, but offshore of, the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja
California Sur during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Priscilla is
forecast to become a major hurricane later today. Weakening is
forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through the rest of the
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). Socorro island, located about 70 miles (115 km)
south-southwest of Priscilla's eye, recently recorded a sustained
wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area later today and
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: From today into Wednesday, 1 to 2 inches of rain are
expected in southern Baja California Sur, with local storm totals up
to 4 inches as the outer bands of Priscilla reach the area. This
rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas
of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla should bring 1 to 2
inches of rain, with local amounts to 4 inches, to portions of
west-central Mexico, which could lead to flash flooding within the
area’s terrain. From late this week into this weekend, moisture
from Priscilla leads to heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk over
portions of the U.S. Desert Southwest.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 071607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.10.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 44.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2025 11.5N 44.0W WEAK
00UTC 08.10.2025 13.1N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2025 14.0N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2025 15.5N 55.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2025 16.9N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2025 19.0N 60.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2025 21.1N 62.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2025 24.0N 63.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 27.8N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 44.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2025 11.5N 44.0W WEAK
00UTC 08.10.2025 13.1N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2025 14.0N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2025 15.5N 55.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2025 16.9N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2025 19.0N 60.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2025 21.1N 62.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2025 24.0N 63.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 27.8N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 119.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2025 15.7N 119.8W MODERATE
00UTC 08.10.2025 15.3N 118.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2025 15.0N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2025 15.8N 115.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2025 17.1N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE PRISCILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 109.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2025 19.4N 109.9W STRONG
00UTC 08.10.2025 20.5N 111.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2025 21.4N 112.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2025 22.5N 114.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2025 23.6N 115.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2025 25.0N 115.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2025 26.1N 115.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 39.7N 35.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.10.2025 41.3N 35.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2025 42.8N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2025 43.7N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2025 43.5N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2025 44.9N 31.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2025 46.4N 30.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.6N 103.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.10.2025 15.6N 103.1W WEAK
12UTC 10.10.2025 16.4N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2025 17.1N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 18.1N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 19.6N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 8.4N 16.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2025 8.4N 16.4W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2025 9.0N 21.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 9.4N 25.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 10.7N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2025 11.7N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 13.0N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2025 13.6N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2025 14.6N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2025 15.7N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 34.1N 58.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.10.2025 34.1N 58.6W WEAK
00UTC 13.10.2025 36.4N 55.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2025 36.6N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2025 36.7N 43.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2025 37.8N 36.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071607


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 071607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.10.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 44.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2025 0 11.5N 44.0W 1010 35
0000UTC 08.10.2025 12 13.1N 48.0W 1009 35
1200UTC 08.10.2025 24 14.0N 51.6W 1009 38
0000UTC 09.10.2025 36 15.5N 55.0W 1009 34
1200UTC 09.10.2025 48 16.9N 58.1W 1009 40
0000UTC 10.10.2025 60 19.0N 60.1W 1008 36
1200UTC 10.10.2025 72 21.1N 62.2W 1009 33
0000UTC 11.10.2025 84 24.0N 63.6W 1009 32
1200UTC 11.10.2025 96 27.8N 63.3W 1010 32
0000UTC 12.10.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 44.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2025 0 11.5N 44.0W 1010 35
0000UTC 08.10.2025 12 13.1N 48.0W 1009 35
1200UTC 08.10.2025 24 14.0N 51.6W 1009 38
0000UTC 09.10.2025 36 15.5N 55.0W 1009 34
1200UTC 09.10.2025 48 16.9N 58.1W 1009 40
0000UTC 10.10.2025 60 19.0N 60.1W 1008 36
1200UTC 10.10.2025 72 21.1N 62.2W 1009 33
0000UTC 11.10.2025 84 24.0N 63.6W 1009 32
1200UTC 11.10.2025 96 27.8N 63.3W 1010 32
0000UTC 12.10.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 119.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2025 0 15.7N 119.8W 999 36
0000UTC 08.10.2025 12 15.3N 118.7W 1001 39
1200UTC 08.10.2025 24 15.0N 117.4W 1002 38
0000UTC 09.10.2025 36 15.8N 115.2W 1003 37
1200UTC 09.10.2025 48 17.1N 112.5W 1006 28
0000UTC 10.10.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE PRISCILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 109.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2025 0 19.4N 109.9W 960 70
0000UTC 08.10.2025 12 20.5N 111.3W 961 72
1200UTC 08.10.2025 24 21.4N 112.7W 971 60
0000UTC 09.10.2025 36 22.5N 114.1W 976 55
1200UTC 09.10.2025 48 23.6N 115.2W 985 47
0000UTC 10.10.2025 60 25.0N 115.5W 993 39
1200UTC 10.10.2025 72 26.1N 115.4W 1003 30
0000UTC 11.10.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 39.7N 35.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2025 24 41.3N 35.5W 1004 36
0000UTC 09.10.2025 36 42.8N 36.1W 1001 35
1200UTC 09.10.2025 48 43.7N 35.3W 1000 32
0000UTC 10.10.2025 60 43.5N 33.5W 1002 30
1200UTC 10.10.2025 72 44.9N 31.4W 1005 25
0000UTC 11.10.2025 84 46.4N 30.2W 1008 24
1200UTC 11.10.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.6N 103.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.10.2025 60 15.6N 103.1W 1003 33
1200UTC 10.10.2025 72 16.4N 104.3W 1004 34
0000UTC 11.10.2025 84 17.1N 107.2W 1003 30
1200UTC 11.10.2025 96 18.1N 108.4W 1004 29
0000UTC 12.10.2025 108 19.6N 109.6W 1004 23
1200UTC 12.10.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 8.4N 16.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2025 72 8.4N 16.4W 1009 39
0000UTC 11.10.2025 84 9.0N 21.1W 1008 35
1200UTC 11.10.2025 96 9.4N 25.1W 1007 34
0000UTC 12.10.2025 108 10.7N 29.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 12.10.2025 120 11.7N 33.3W 1008 35
0000UTC 13.10.2025 132 13.0N 36.8W 1008 35
1200UTC 13.10.2025 144 13.6N 40.1W 1009 34
0000UTC 14.10.2025 156 14.6N 42.9W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.10.2025 168 15.7N 45.7W 1010 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 34.1N 58.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2025 120 34.1N 58.6W 1007 39
0000UTC 13.10.2025 132 36.4N 55.8W 1003 39
1200UTC 13.10.2025 144 36.6N 50.6W 1002 36
0000UTC 14.10.2025 156 36.7N 43.9W 997 46
1200UTC 14.10.2025 168 37.8N 36.3W 986 48


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071607


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 071449
TCDEP1

Hurricane Priscilla Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 AM MST Tue Oct 07 2025

Cloud top temperatures associated with Priscilla's eyewall
convection continue to cool, and the structure of the eye has
gradually been improving over the past 6 h. Subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 90-102 kt, and
objective numbers have risen to the 88-102 kt range. The initial
intensity has been raised to 95 kt, which is an average of the
latest satellite estimates.

Intensity guidance is in good agreement that Priscilla should peak
in strength in about 12 hours or so while the hurricane remains over
warm waters and in a moist, moderate shear environment. Priscilla is
now explicitly forecast to become a category 3 hurricane over the
next 12 hours. After that, the hurricane is forecast to move over
progressively cooler waters, reaching the 26 degree C sea-surface
temperature isotherm around hour 36. Priscilla will also be moving
into a drier environment as it gains latitude. Therefore, the NHC
forecast calls for weakening beginning Wednesday. Southwesterly
vertical wind shear is forecast to increase over the cyclone in 3 to
4 days, and simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF models
indicates that Priscilla should lose its convection and become a
remnant low shortly before the system reaches the Baja California
peninsula. Enhanced moisture is likely to be transported northward
over portions of the southwestern U.S. late this week, resulting in
the potential for heavy rainfall.

The hurricane is moving northwestward (305/9 kt) around the
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. This
motion should continue for the next couple of days while the center
of Priscilla moves parallel to, but remains offshore of, the
southern Baja California peninsula. By Thursday, an amplifying
trough off the U.S. West Coast is forecast to erode the steering
ridge to the north of Priscilla. The weakness in the ridge should
induce a northward turn later this week and into the weekend. The
track models are in fairly good agreement through about 60 h.
Thereafter, spread increases, mainly in the along-track direction.
The new NHC track forecast is nearly on top of the previous
prediction, perhaps a tad faster, and lies in between the faster
HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and the slower Google Deep Mind
Ensemble Mean.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Baja California
Sur Pacific coastline within the Tropical Storm Watch area later
today into Wednesday. Interests elsewhere in the Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact portions of
Baja California Sur today into Wednesday. Its moisture will lead to
heavy rainfall across west-central Mexico from today into Thursday
morning and across the U.S. Desert Southwest from late this week
into this weekend, which could result in flash flooding,
particularly in areas of higher terrain.

3. Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the coast
of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 19.8N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.5N 111.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 22.6N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 23.7N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 25.1N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 26.3N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 28.7N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z 31.5N 113.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 071446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 AM MST Tue Oct 07 2025

...PRISCILLA STRENGTHENS...
...OUTER BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 110.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.1 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a continued
northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the north Thursday night or Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel
to, but offshore of, the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja
California Sur during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Priscilla is forecast to become a major hurricane later today.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through the
rest of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). Socorro island, located about 80 miles (130 km) southwest
of Priscilla's eye, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph
(84 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (120 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area later today and
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: From today into Wednesday, 1 to 2 inches of rain are
expected in southern Baja California Sur, with local storm totals up
to 4 inches as the outer bands of Priscilla reach the area. This
rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas
of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla should bring 1 to 2
inches of rain, with local amounts to 4 inches, to portions of
west-central Mexico, which could lead to flash flooding within the
area’s terrain. From late this week into this weekend, moisture
from Priscilla leads to heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk over
portions of the U.S. Desert Southwest.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 071445
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.1W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 130SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 330SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.1W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 111.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.6N 113.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.1N 115.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 28.7N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 110.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 071137
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
500 AM MST Tue Oct 07 2025

...OUTER BANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 109.6W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 109.6 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a continued
northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel
to, but offshore of, the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja
California Sur during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Priscilla could be
at or near major hurricane strength later today. Weakening is
forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through the rest of the
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area later today and
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: From today into Wednesday, 1 to 2 inches of rain are
expected in southern Baja California Sur, with local totals up to 4
inches as the outer bands of Priscilla reach the area. This rainfall
could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain. Moisture from Priscilla should bring heavy rainfall
potential over the Southwest U.S. late this week into this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 070856
TCDEP1

Hurricane Priscilla Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 AM MST Tue Oct 07 2025

Priscilla is strengthening early this morning. The inner core
structure has improved, with deep convective cloud tops surrounding
the center of the hurricane. An eye feature has recently emerged in
proxy-visible and infrared satellite images. ASCAT-C data from 04
UTC show the tropical-storm-force wind field remains quite broad,
but the radius of maximum wind appears to have contracted from prior
estimates. The initial intensity is raised to 85 kt, representing a
blend of recent UW-CIMSS DPRINT estimates (79-87 kt) and a 5.0/90 kt
Dvorak classification from TAFB at 06 UTC.

The intensity of Priscilla is likely to peak in the next 12-24 h
while the hurricane remains over warm waters and in a moist,
moderate shear environment. Given the rapidly improving satellite
structure, the NHC forecast shows Priscilla nearing major hurricane
strength later today, in best agreement with the HAFS regional
models. Thereafter, the hurricane is expected to move over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment
while gaining latitude. Thus, the NHC forecast calls for steady
weakening beginning Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the
week. Southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over Priscilla as
it approaches the Baja California peninsula in 96-120 h, and
Priscilla could become post-tropical by late Friday or Saturday if
its convection is stripped away as shown in the GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite imagery. This enhanced moisture is likely to be
transported northward over portions of the southwestern U.S. late
this week, resulting in the potential for heavy rainfall.

The hurricane is moving northwestward (310/9 kt) around the
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. This
motion should continue for the next couple of days while the center
of Priscilla moves parallel to, but remains offshore of, the
southern Baja California peninsula. By Thursday, an amplifying
trough off the U.S. West Coast is forecast to erode the steering
ridge to the north of Priscilla. The weakness in the ridge should
induce a northward turn later this week and into the weekend. The
updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the left of the
previous prediction. This is mostly related to an initial position
adjustment based on earlier microwave and scatterometer data that
indicated Priscilla was slightly south of previous estimates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Baja California
Sur Pacific coastline within the Tropical Storm Watch area later
today into Wednesday. Interests elsewhere in the Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact portions of
southern Baja California Sur, which could result in flash flooding,
particularly in areas of higher terrain.

3. Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the coast
of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 19.4N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 20.0N 110.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.9N 111.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 21.9N 113.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 23.0N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 24.3N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 27.7N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 070854
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 AM MST Tue Oct 07 2025

...PRISCILLA IS STRENGTHENING...
...OUTER BANDS COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 109.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 109.5 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a continued
northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel
to, but offshore of, the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja
California Sur during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Priscilla could be at or near major hurricane strength later today.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through the
rest of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur within the watch area later today and
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: From today into Wednesday, 1 to 2 inches of rain are
expected in southern Baja California Sur, with local totals up to 4
inches as the outer bands of Priscilla reach the area. This rainfall
could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain. Moisture from Priscilla should bring heavy rainfall
potential over the Southwest U.S. late this week into this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 070854
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0900 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 45SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 375SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 114.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 115.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.7N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 109.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 070545
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
1100 PM MST Mon Oct 06 2025

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS PRISCILLA MOVES NEARBY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 109.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued
northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the
coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and
Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane on Tuesday
before weakening begins by midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Pacific coast of
Baja California Sur within the watch area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday to Wednesday, 1 to 2 inches of rain are
expected in southern Baja California Sur, with local totals up to 4
inches as the outer bands of Priscilla reach the area. This rainfall
could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain. Moisture from Priscilla could bring heavy rainfall
potential over the Southwest U.S. late this week into this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 070249
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 PM MST MON OCT 06 2025

PRISCILLA REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE THIS EVENING, WITH BROAD CURVED
BANDS DEVELOPING AND ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER ON GOES-18 SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY, THERE WAS A 0057 UTC WSF-M
MICROWAVE PASS THAT SHOWED THE INNER-CORE STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP
WITH A NEARLY CLOSED 37-GHZ CYAN RING. THIS MAY FORESHADOW A PERIOD
OF MORE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY AT
T4.5/77-KT AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE
FROM 68-78 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO FINALLY BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE
NORTHWEST, WITH THE ESTIMATED MOTION AT 320/8 KT. A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PRISCILLA. AFTER THIS TIME, AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF JUST OFF THE WESTERN U.S. COASTLINE,
ERODING THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. IN RESPONSE, THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS PRISCILLA TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES IN THE
FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE DIGGING TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE RIGHT THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC TRACK WAS NUDGED
IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER, IT STILL REMAINS SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR
RIGHT AS SOME OF THE HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODELS AND THE ECMWF TRACK
FORECAST, REMAINING CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS
APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI).

THE IMPROVING CORE STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
PRISCILLA MIGHT BE FINALLY READY TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE IN THE
SHORT TERM. WITH SHEAR REMAINING BETWEEN 15-20 KT, AND SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAINING ABOVE 28 C FOR THE NEXT 24-36 H, THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY DURING
THIS TIME. AFTERWARDS, PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS A SHARP SST
GRADIENT INTO MUCH COOLER WATER, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING BEYOND
36 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR
ADVISORY, ELECTING TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE HCCA INTENSITY AID. SHEAR
ALSO INCREASES RAPIDLY AFTER 72 H, AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
LOSE ITS REMAINING CONVECTION RIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW.
REGARDLESS, ENHANCED MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THIS WEEK.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR PACIFIC COASTLINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 19.1N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 19.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 20.7N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 21.6N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 22.8N 113.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 24.0N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 25.2N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 27.4N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 29.7N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 070245
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 PM MST Mon Oct 06 2025

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS PRISCILLA MOVES NEARBY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 108.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch from
Santa Fe northward to Cabo San Lazaro, and has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo to Punta Mita, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro,
Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.5 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued
northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
system is expected to move parallel to the coast of west-central
Mexico and Baja California Sur through the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or two, and
Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane before
weakening begins by midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Pacific coast of
Baja California Sur Tuesday into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday to Wednesday, 1 to 2 inches of rain are
expected in southern Baja California Sur, with local totals reaching
up to 4 inches as the outer bands of Priscilla reach the area. This
rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas
of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla could bring heavy
rainfall potential over the Southwest U.S. late this week into this
weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 070244
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0300 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.5W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 45SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 390SE 240SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.5W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.7N 110.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.6N 112.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N 113.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 115.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 29.7N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 108.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 062346
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
500 PM MST Mon Oct 06 2025

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 108.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita, Mexico
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.0 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
system is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of
west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur through the middle part
of this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or two, and
Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane before
weakening begins by midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the west-central coast of Mexico through tonight, and are
possible in Baja California Sur Tuesday night into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will continue to bring heavy
rain to portions of west-central Mexico today. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and Colima, additional rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are expected. From Tuesday into Wednesday, 1 to 2
inches with local storm total amounts to 4 inches are expected in
southern portions of Baja California Sur due to the outer bands of
Priscilla. This rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla
should bring heavy rainfall potential over the Southwest U.S. late
this week into this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 062039
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 PM MST Mon Oct 06 2025

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY OVER PARTS OF
COASTAL WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 108.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
from Punta San Telmo to southeast of Manzanillo

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita, Mexico
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 108.0 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
system is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of
west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur through the middle part
of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or two, and
Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane before
weakening begins by midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the west-central coast of Mexico through today, and are
possible in Baja California Sur Tuesday night into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will continue to bring heavy
rain to portions of west-central Mexico today. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and Colima, additional rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are expected. From Tuesday into Wednesday, 1 to 2
inches with local storm total amounts to 4 inches are expected in
southern portions of Baja California Sur due to the outer bands of
Priscilla. This rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla
should bring heavy rainfall potential over the Southwest U.S. late
this week into this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 062041
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST MON OCT 06 2025

PRISCILLA HAS A VERY LARGE AREA OF BANDED CONVECTION THAT SPIRALS
INTO A CENTRAL AREA THAT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF SOME CLEARING FROM
TIME-TO-TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 06/1604 UTC
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
(RMW). THE STRONGEST VECTORS OF 50-55 KT WERE MAINLY LOCATED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
COULD BE LOCATED JUST OUTSIDE THE EDGE OF THE SCATTEROMETER PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 75 KT, BUT THIS COULD BE A
BIT GENEROUS.

PRISCILLA IS MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, OR 340
DEGREES AT 6 KT. A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME
SLIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER MEXICO. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS.
BEYOND 72 HOURS, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AS A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA PICKS UP THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND IS A BIT FASTER AT DAY 4 AND 5. THE NEW NHC
TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS
(HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

THE INNER CORE AND RMW OF PRISCILLA HAS NOT CONTRACTED YET, AND THE
HURRICANE HAS ALSO NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SOME SNEAKY DRY SLOTS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COULD BE PREVENTING PRISCILLA FROM DEVELOPING A
TIGHT INNER CORE. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS ANTICIPATED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO, BUT
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. PRISCILLA IS FORECAST REACH COLDER
WATERS, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH SHORTLY AFTER THAT TIME. PRISCILLA IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS
DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW JUST BEYOND 96 H. THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION COULD REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA JUST BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. ENHANCED MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH TODAY, AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS. INTERESTS
ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.3N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 20.0N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 20.9N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.0N 112.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 23.1N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 24.3N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 27.0N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 30.0N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 062037
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
2100 UTC MON OCT 06 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 360SE 240SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 110.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.0N 112.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.1N 114.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 114.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 27.0N 115.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.0N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 108.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 061745
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
1100 AM MST Mon Oct 06 2025

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TODAY OVER PARTS OF COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 107.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Baja California Sur should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 107.6 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general
motion with a bend to the northwest at a slightly faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of the system is expected to move offshore of and parallel to
the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur through the
early-to-middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to
become a category 2 hurricane, and could approach major hurricane
status within the next couple of days before weakening likely
commences by midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today, and are possible in
Baja California Sur Tuesday night into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will continue to bring heavy
rain to portions of southwestern Mexico today. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and Colima, additional rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are expected. From Tuesday into Wednesday, 2-4 inches
(with local amounts up to 6 inches) are expected in southern
portions of Baja California Sur as outer bands of Priscilla reach
that area. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla
should bring heavy rainfall potential over the Southwestern U.S.
late this week into this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and will reach
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 107.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 107.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.3N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.3N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.2N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.2N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.3N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.4N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.7N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.5N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 107.6W.
06OCT25. HURRICANE 16E (PRISCILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z
IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 15E (OCTAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 061454
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM MST MON OCT 06 2025

PRISCILLA REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW). THE ASCAT DATA FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT LOWER THAN THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH THE CURVED BAND
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES HAS BECOME
A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS STILL NOT VERY STRONG. THE INNER CORE IS
STILL RATHER BROAD, AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE RMW HAS
CONTRACTED YET. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN A
CONSENSUS 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PRISCILLA IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, OR 340
DEGREES AT 4 KT. A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME ACCELERATION
IS EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HASN'T CHANGED TOO
MUCH THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING MODERATE WIND SHEAR TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 H, THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF PRISCILLA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF SOME OF THE ADVERSE AFFECTS OF THE
SHEAR. PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO STEADY SINCE PRISCILLA HAS YET TO DEVELOP A
TIGHT INNER CORE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY AS A STRONG
CATEGORY 2 AROUND TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY
TO COMMENCE IN 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHING
SHARPLY COOLER WATERS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, WHICH BRINGS THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WIND RADII FAIRLY CLOSE TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN 36-48
H, THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
CABO SAN LUCAS TO SANTA FE.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY, AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS. INTERESTS
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE
COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.5N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.3N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.3N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 20.2N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 21.2N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 22.3N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 23.4N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.7N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 27.5N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 061448
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM MST MON OCT 06 2025

...LARGE PRISCILLA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TODAY OVER PARTS OF COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 107.4W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA, MEXICO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A BEND TO THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF AND PARALLEL TO
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE
EARLY-TO-MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND PRISCILLA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE, AND COULD APPROACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WEAKENING
LIKELY COMMENCES BY MIDWEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES (85 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES
(335 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB (28.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY, AND ARE POSSIBLE IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM PRISCILLA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MICHOACN AND COLIMA, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, 2-4 INCHES
(WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES) ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS OUTER BANDS OF PRISCILLA REACH
THAT AREA. THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA
SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND WILL REACH
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 061449
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM MST MON OCT 06 2025

PRISCILLA REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW). THE ASCAT DATA FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT LOWER THAN THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH THE CURVED BAND
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES HAS BECOME
A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS STILL NOT VERY STRONG. THE INNER CORE IS
STILL RATHER BROAD, AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE RMW HAS
CONTRACTED YET. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN A
CONSENSUS 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PRISCILLA IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, OR 340
DEGREES AT 4 KT. A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME ACCELERATION
IS EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HASN'T CHANGED TOO
MUCH THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING MODERATE WIND SHEAR TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 H, THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF PRISCILLA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF SOME OF THE ADVERSE AFFECTS OF THE
SHEAR. PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO STEADY SINCE PRISCILLA HAS YET TO DEVELOP A
TIGHT INNER CORE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY AS A STRONG
CATEGORY 2 AROUND TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY
TO COMMENCE IN 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHING
SHARPLY COOLER WATERS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, WHICH BRINGS THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WIND RADII FAIRLY CLOSE TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN 36-48
H, THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
CABO SAN LUCAS TO SANTA FE.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY, AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS. INTERESTS
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE
COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.5N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.3N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.3N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 20.2N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 21.2N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 22.3N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 23.4N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.7N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 27.5N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 061447
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1500 UTC MON OCT 06 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 107.4W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 360SE 240SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 107.4W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 40SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 40SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.2N 110.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N 112.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.4N 114.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N 115.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 107.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 061146
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PRISCILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
500 AM MST MON OCT 06 2025

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 107.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A BEND TO THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF AND PARALLEL TO
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE
EARLY-TO-MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND PRISCILLA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE, AND COULD APPROACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WEAKENING
LIKELY COMMENCES BY MIDWEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES (315 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM PRISCILLA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MICHOACN AND FAR WESTERN GUERRERO, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. ACROSS COLIMA, WESTERN JALISCO, AND THE REST OF GUERRERO
ALONG THE COAST, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND WILL REACH
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061000
WARNING ATCG MIL 16E NEP 251006091152
2025100606 16E PRISCILLA 007 02 345 04 SATL 030
T000 170N 1072W 075 R064 000 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 179N 1079W 080 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 188N 1090W 085 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 197N 1102W 090 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 207N 1117W 095 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T060 217N 1130W 085 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 228N 1142W 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 253N 1160W 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 265N 1164W 035 R034 070 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
120HR POST-TROPICAL
SUBJ: HURRICANE 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNING NR 007
1. HURRICANE 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 107.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 107.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.9N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.8N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.7N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.7N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.7N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.8N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.3N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.5N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 107.4W.
06OCT25. HURRICANE 16E (PRISCILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1084 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1625100118 120N 995W 15
1625100200 121N1003W 15
1625100206 122N1008W 20
1625100212 123N1014W 20
1625100218 124N1020W 20
1625100300 125N1025W 20
1625100306 127N1032W 20
1625100312 129N1036W 25
1625100318 132N1040W 30
1625100400 138N1047W 30
1625100406 143N1053W 30
1625100412 148N1059W 30
1625100418 154N1065W 40
1625100500 156N1067W 45
1625100506 159N1068W 55
1625100506 159N1068W 55
1625100512 161N1069W 55
1625100512 161N1069W 55
1625100518 163N1070W 60
1625100518 163N1070W 60
1625100600 166N1071W 65
1625100600 166N1071W 65
1625100600 166N1071W 65
1625100606 170N1072W 75
1625100606 170N1072W 75
1625100606 170N1072W 75
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 AM MST Mon Oct 06 2025

...PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 107.3W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case during the next day or
so.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 107.3 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This
general motion with a bend to the northwest at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of and
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California
Sur through the early-to-middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Priscilla is expected to become a category 2 hurricane, and could
approach major hurricane status within the next couple of days
before weakening likely commences by midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will continue to bring heavy
rain to portions of southwestern Mexico today. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and far western Guerrero, additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6
inches. Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero
along the coast, 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall are expected.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla have begun to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the
coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 060842
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 AM MST MON OCT 06 2025

PRISCILLA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE
IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN,
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH CLOUD
TOPS TO -80 DEG C OR COLDER IN THE BAND. CIRRUS CLOUD
MOTIONS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
EXPANDING AT THIS TIME. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT
75 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB, SAB, AND UW-CIMSS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING A LITTLE WEST OF NORTH OR 340/5 KT. A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED BY LATER
TODAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER MEXICO.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS, WITH THE GFS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA, NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON
PRISCILLA'S MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ABATING SOMEWHAT OVER THE SYSTEM.
PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. AS NOTED EARLIER, IF PRISCILLA DEVELOPS A TIGHTER
INNER CORE, RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
CORRECTED CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE. STEADY WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CROSSING
A SHARP SST GRADIENT AND HEADING OVER COOLER WATERS.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY. INTERESTS
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD ALSO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.2N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.9N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 19.7N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 20.7N 111.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 21.7N 113.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 25.3N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 060841
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0900 UTC MON OCT 06 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT.......170NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 330SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 107.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 45SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 110.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.7N 111.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.7N 113.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 25.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 26.5N 116.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 107.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060546
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
1100 PM MST Sun Oct 05 2025

...PRISCILLA STRENGTHENING...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 107.2W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case during the next day or
so.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 107.2 West. Priscilla
is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). This
general motion with a bend to the northwest at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of and
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California
Sur through the early-to-middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during
the next few days, and Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2
hurricane later this week before weakening likely commences on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and into Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and far western Guerrero, additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6
inches. Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero
along the coast, 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall are expected.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla have begun to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the
coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula by Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.5N 107.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 107.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.3N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.1N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.1N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.0N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.0N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.1N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.3N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.3N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 107.3W.
06OCT25. HURRICANE 16E (PRISCILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1113 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z
IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE
15E (OCTAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 PM MST Sun Oct 05 2025

...PRISCILLA STILL CREEPING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 107.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case during the next day or
so.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). This
general motion with a bend to the northwest at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of and
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California
Sur through the early-to-middle part of this week

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane later this
week before weakening likely commences on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today into Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacán and far western Guerrero, additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6
inches. Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero
along the coast, 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall are expected.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 052331
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
500 PM MST Sun Oct 05 2025

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING FOR COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH PRISCILLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 107.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next day or
so.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 107.1 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the system
is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico through the early part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane later this
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today into Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and far western Guerrero, additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6
inches. Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero
along the coast, 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall are expected.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 107.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 107.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.8N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.7N 108.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.6N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.5N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.4N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.4N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.6N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.4N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 107.1W.
05OCT25. TROPICAL STORM 16E (PRISCILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS
988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE
15E (OCTAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 052042
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 PM MST Sun Oct 05 2025

...PRISCILLA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 107.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next day or
so.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. Priscilla is
moving slowly toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and
this general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
system is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico through the early part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next several days, and Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2
hurricane later this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today into Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and far western Guerrero, additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6
inches. Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero
along the coast, 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall are expected.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 052042
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST SUN OCT 05 2025

PRISCILLA HAS BECOME MARKEDLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND HAS FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A
RAGGED EYE SHOWING UP ON THE VISIBLE IMAGES. A SCATTEROMETER PASS
AT 1713 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER EMBEDDED IN
THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, THOUGH THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT
HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGES TO CONFIRM THAT PRISCILLA IS BETTER
VERTICALLY ALIGNED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES FROM SAB AND TAFB STILL
SUPPORT T4.0/65 KT, AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
ALSO INCREASING, NOW IN THE 59-66 KT RANGE. THUS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 65 KT, MAKING PRISCILLA THE 10TH
HURRICANE OF THE 2025 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. WIND RADII WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY, WITH A BEST GUESS AT AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 330/3 KT. THERE ISN'T MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK
REASONING, WITH THE CURRENT LACK OF MOTION MAINLY DUE TO LIGHT
STEERING CURRENTS FROM A WEAK RIDGE ERODED BY A LARGER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT, ALLOWING THE RIDGING OVER MEXICO TO GRADUALLY
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED. THE END RESULT SHOULD CAUSE PRISCILLA TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SUBTLE BEND
LEFTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THERE REMAINS A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN 72 HOURS, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO
BE ON THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND THE
ECMWF ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ONE, SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE
OUTLIERS, AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND GDMI TRACK
AIDS.

SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THE PRISCILLA IS
EXPERIENCING 20 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND YET THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN ABLE TO INTENSIFY, LIKELY AIDED BY PLENTY WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO STAY ABOUT THE SAME IN MAGNITUDE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, AND IN
GENERAL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME UP FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDICES ARE ELEVATED, AND IF
PRISCILLA CAN ESTABLISH A TIGHTER INNER CORE, IT IS NOT OUT THE
QUESTION THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY MORE THAN SHOWN HERE. FOR
NOW, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW MORE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, ASSUMING THE SHEAR TEMPERS A FASTER RATE OF
DEEPENING, BUT NOW HAS PEAK OF 90 KT, A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
BEFORE. THIS IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE HCCA INTENSITY AID, BUT LOWER
THAN SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS (HAFS-A/B, COAMPS-TC,
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE). AFTER 72 H, PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER A SHARPLY COOLING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD ALSO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.4N 107.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.8N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.7N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 18.6N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 19.5N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 20.4N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 21.4N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 23.6N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 25.4N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 052041
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
2100 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 45SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.8N 107.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 55SE 45SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.7N 108.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.6N 109.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.5N 110.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 60SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.4N 111.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 55SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.6N 115.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 116.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 107.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 051740
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1100 AM MST SUN OCT 05 2025

...PRISCILLA A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE MOVING SLOWLY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 107.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST.
PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H)
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF AND PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND PRISCILLA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB (29.21 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY INTO MONDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM PRISCILLA WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MICHOACA!N AND FAR WESTERN GUERRERO, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. ACROSS COLIMA, WESTERN JALISCO, AND THE REST OF GUERRERO
ALONG THE COAST, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 051600
WARNING ATCG MIL 16E NEP 251005145257
2025100512 16E PRISCILLA 004 02 345 04 SATL 030
T000 163N 1069W 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 167N 1072W 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 174N 1077W 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 183N 1086W 075 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 192N 1099W 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T060 201N 1111W 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 210N 1123W 085 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 232N 1150W 065 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 251N 1167W 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 106.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 106.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.7N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.4N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.3N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.2N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.1N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.0N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.2N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.1N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 107.0W.
05OCT25. TROPICAL STORM 16E (PRISCILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1129 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1625100118 120N 995W 15
1625100200 121N1003W 15
1625100206 122N1008W 20
1625100212 123N1014W 20
1625100218 124N1020W 20
1625100300 125N1025W 20
1625100306 127N1032W 20
1625100312 129N1036W 25
1625100318 132N1040W 30
1625100400 138N1047W 30
1625100406 143N1053W 30
1625100412 148N1059W 30
1625100418 154N1065W 40
1625100500 156N1067W 45
1625100506 159N1068W 55
1625100506 159N1068W 55
1625100512 163N1069W 55
1625100512 163N1069W 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 051457 CCA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM MST SUN OCT 05 2025

CORRECTED TYPO IN THE FIRST SENTENCE

AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY, A HELPFUL AMSR2 PASS REVEALED THAT
PRISCILLA REMAINS TILTED VERTICALLY NEAR ITS CORE, WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON 37 GHZ BEING LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER SEEN ON 89 GHZ, WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE FEATURE SHOWING UP
YET. SOME OF THIS MISALIGNMENT COULD BE DUE TO 15-20 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE TROPICAL STORM. THE 12 UTC
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T4.0/65-KT, BUT
GIVEN THE EARLIER AMSR2 STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
HELD AT 55 KT THIS ADVISORY, CLOSER TO THE LOWER ADT AND SATCON
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

PRISCILLA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A HURRY TO MOVE ANYWHERE, WITH
THE LATEST ESTIMATED MOTION ESSENTIALLY A NORTH-NORTHWEST DRIFT AT
330/3 KT. THE LACK OF MUCH FORWARD MOTION IS RELATED TO WEAKER THAN
USUAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING PLACED TO ITS NORTH, WHICH HAS BEEN ERODED
BY A LARGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND OUT,
ALLOWING THE RIDGING OVER MEXICO TO GRADUALLY BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED.
THE END RESULT SHOULD CAUSE PRISCILLA TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SUBTLE BEND LEFTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE INCREASES AFTER THIS POINT, RELATED TO A DIGGING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST THAT WILL ERODE THE RIDGE
ONCE AGAIN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE OVERALL IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS ALSO ADJUSTED SLOWER,
BUT STILL ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND
GDMI TRACK AIDS.

WHILE PRISCILLA IS PRODUCING A LOT OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION, WITH
TOPS AS COLD AT -80 TO -85C, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RIGHT OVER THE
CENTER, BUT RATHER DISPLACED SOUTH DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S
CURRENT TILT. THIS STRUCTURE COULD ALSO BE CAUSING SOME DRY AIR TO
BE INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE, RESULTING IN THIS SHORT-TERM
HICCUP IN INTENSIFICATION. SINCE PRISCILLA'S LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MOIST, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE STORM WILL MIX OUT THIS DRY
AIR AND SOON RESUME STRENGTHENING, LIKELY BECOMING A HURRICANE
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 15-20 KT OVER THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS, AND THAT COULD TEMPER A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
THAN SHOWN IN THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. NONE THE LESS, A PEAK OF
85 KT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PRIOR CYCLE, FOLLOWING THE TRENDS
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH BOTH HAFS-A/B SHOWING A
HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE HWRF/HMON RUNS. THE LATEST INTENSITY
FORECAST OPTS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE, AND LIES NEAR THE LATEST HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING OVER A SHARPLY COOLING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY AND
MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.7N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.4N 107.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.3N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.2N 109.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 20.1N 111.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.0N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 23.2N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 25.1N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 051445
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM MST SUN OCT 05 2025

AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY, A HELPFUL AMSR2 PASS REVEALED THAT
PRISCILLA REMAINS TILTED VERTICALLY NEAR ITS ORE, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER ON 37 GHZ BEING LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN ON
89 GHZ, WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE FEATURE SHOWING UP YET. SOME OF
THIS MISALIGNMENT COULD BE DUE TO 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
AFFECTING THE TROPICAL STORM. THE 12 UTC SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T4.0/65-KT, BUT GIVEN THE EARLIER AMSR2
STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 55 KT THIS
ADVISORY, CLOSER TO THE LOWER ADT AND SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

PRISCILLA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A HURRY TO MOVE ANYWHERE, WITH
THE LATEST ESTIMATED MOTION ESSENTIALLY A NORTH-NORTHWEST DRIFT AT
330/3 KT. THE LACK OF MUCH FORWARD MOTION IS RELATED TO WEAKER THAN
USUAL MID-LEVEL RIDGING PLACED TO ITS NORTH, WHICH HAS BEEN ERODED
BY A LARGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND OUT,
ALLOWING THE RIDGING OVER MEXICO TO GRADUALLY BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED.
THE END RESULT SHOULD CAUSE PRISCILLA TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SUBTLE BEND LEFTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE INCREASES AFTER THIS POINT, RELATED TO A DIGGING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST THAT WILL ERODE THE RIDGE
ONCE AGAIN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE OVERALL IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS ALSO ADJUSTED SLOWER,
BUT STILL ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND
GDMI TRACK AIDS.

WHILE PRISCILLA IS PRODUCING A LOT OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION, WITH
TOPS AS COLD AT -80 TO -85C, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RIGHT OVER THE
CENTER, BUT RATHER DISPLACED SOUTH DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S
CURRENT TILT. THIS STRUCTURE COULD ALSO BE CAUSING SOME DRY AIR TO
BE INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE, RESULTING IN THIS SHORT-TERM
HICCUP IN INTENSIFICATION. SINCE PRISCILLA'S LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MOIST, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE STORM WILL MIX OUT THIS DRY
AIR AND SOON RESUME STRENGTHENING, LIKELY BECOMING A HURRICANE
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 15-20 KT OVER THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS, AND THAT COULD TEMPER A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
THAN SHOWN IN THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. NONE THE LESS, A PEAK OF
85 KT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PRIOR CYCLE, FOLLOWING THE TRENDS
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH BOTH HAFS-A/B SHOWING A
HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE HWRF/HMON RUNS. THE LATEST INTENSITY
FORECAST OPTS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE, AND LIES NEAR THE LATEST HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING OVER A SHARPLY COOLING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY AND
MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.7N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.4N 107.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.3N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.2N 109.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 20.1N 111.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.0N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 23.2N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 25.1N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 051441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 AM MST Sun Oct 05 2025

...PRISCILLA FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE EARLY
PART OF THIS WEEK...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 107.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next day or
so.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this
general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the system
is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico through the early part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Priscilla is likely to become a hurricane over the next
day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today into Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and far western Guerrero, additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6
inches. Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero
along the coast,1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall are expected.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 051440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1500 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 35SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.3N 108.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 109.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 111.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 65NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 112.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.1N 116.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 107.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 051141
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
500 AM MST Sun Oct 05 2025

...PRISCILLA EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 106.9W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 106.9 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the system
is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico through the early part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Priscilla is likely to become a hurricane over the next
day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and far western Guerrero, rainfall amounts of
4 to 6 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 8 inches.
Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero along the
coast, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall will bring
a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 050857
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 AM MST Sun Oct 05 2025

...PRISCILLA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 106.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 106.9 West. Priscilla
is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico through early this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Priscilla is likely to become a hurricane later
today or tonight.

Priscilla is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacán and far western Guerrero, rainfall amounts of
4 to 6 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 8 inches.
Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero along the
coast, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall will bring
a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 050858
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 AM MST SUN OCT 05 2025

PRISCILLA IS STRENGTHENING. THE STORM IS PRODUCING VERY DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OF NEAR -80 DEG C, OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB, ALONG WITH ASCAT OBSERVATIONS.

SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL NOT VERY CLEARLY-DEFINED, THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/4 KT. STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK OVER THE AREA, AND THERE MAY BE SOME SHIFTS IN
THE CENTER POSITION DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.
NONETHELESS, PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
GREATLY AT DAYS 3-5. THIS IS LIKELY RELATED TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST, AND THE
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

PRISCILLA IS OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A HIGHLY MOIST LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL AIR MASS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH
COULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY COUNTERACT THE OTHERWISE CONDUCIVE FACTORS
FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY AND
MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 16.1N 106.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.6N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 107.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.0N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 18.9N 109.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 19.7N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 20.5N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.3N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.7N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 050857
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0900 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 106.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 106.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 107.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.3N 114.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.7N 116.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 106.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 050544
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1100 PM MST SAT OCT 04 2025

...PRISCILLA LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 106.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST.
PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A
SLOW, GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF
AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

PRISCILLA IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM, WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM PRISCILLA WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MICHOACA!N AND FAR WESTERN GUERRERO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES.
ACROSS COLIMA, WESTERN JALISCO, AND THE REST OF GUERRERO ALONG THE
COAST, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING
A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 050403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 124.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2025 15.1N 124.4W MODERATE
12UTC 05.10.2025 15.3N 124.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2025 15.9N 123.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2025 15.9N 122.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2025 15.7N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2025 15.5N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2025 15.2N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2025 15.2N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 106.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2025 15.3N 106.2W MODERATE
12UTC 05.10.2025 16.3N 106.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2025 16.7N 107.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2025 17.7N 108.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2025 18.5N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2025 19.5N 110.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2025 20.5N 112.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2025 21.2N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2025 22.2N 115.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2025 22.8N 116.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2025 23.6N 117.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2025 24.0N 117.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2025 24.7N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.1N 99.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.10.2025 14.2N 99.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2025 14.3N 102.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2025 15.2N 103.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2025 16.0N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2025 16.1N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 16.4N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 17.1N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.3N 57.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2025 15.9N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2025 17.2N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2025 18.2N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2025 19.6N 66.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 21.3N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 23.9N 68.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 8.0N 20.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2025 7.7N 21.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2025 8.4N 24.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 9.1N 28.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 33.4N 75.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2025 33.0N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050403


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 050403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 124.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2025 0 15.1N 124.4W 995 39
1200UTC 05.10.2025 12 15.3N 124.2W 996 38
0000UTC 06.10.2025 24 15.9N 123.4W 996 36
1200UTC 06.10.2025 36 15.9N 122.5W 999 32
0000UTC 07.10.2025 48 15.7N 121.4W 1000 31
1200UTC 07.10.2025 60 15.5N 120.4W 1002 28
0000UTC 08.10.2025 72 15.2N 119.3W 1003 32
1200UTC 08.10.2025 84 15.2N 117.2W 1005 35
0000UTC 09.10.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 106.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2025 0 15.3N 106.2W 998 39
1200UTC 05.10.2025 12 16.3N 106.9W 996 38
0000UTC 06.10.2025 24 16.7N 107.8W 992 47
1200UTC 06.10.2025 36 17.7N 108.7W 988 50
0000UTC 07.10.2025 48 18.5N 110.1W 987 48
1200UTC 07.10.2025 60 19.5N 110.9W 986 50
0000UTC 08.10.2025 72 20.5N 112.7W 986 50
1200UTC 08.10.2025 84 21.2N 114.1W 987 49
0000UTC 09.10.2025 96 22.2N 115.6W 989 45
1200UTC 09.10.2025 108 22.8N 116.9W 991 42
0000UTC 10.10.2025 120 23.6N 117.6W 996 37
1200UTC 10.10.2025 132 24.0N 117.2W 1003 24
0000UTC 11.10.2025 144 24.7N 116.9W 1007 22
1200UTC 11.10.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.1N 99.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2025 96 14.2N 99.9W 1005 27
1200UTC 09.10.2025 108 14.3N 102.3W 1002 35
0000UTC 10.10.2025 120 15.2N 103.8W 1002 32
1200UTC 10.10.2025 132 16.0N 106.1W 1002 32
0000UTC 11.10.2025 144 16.1N 108.8W 1001 33
1200UTC 11.10.2025 156 16.4N 110.9W 1002 29
0000UTC 12.10.2025 168 17.1N 112.3W 1002 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.3N 57.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2025 108 15.9N 59.3W 1009 33
0000UTC 10.10.2025 120 17.2N 61.9W 1007 34
1200UTC 10.10.2025 132 18.2N 64.5W 1007 34
0000UTC 11.10.2025 144 19.6N 66.7W 1005 41
1200UTC 11.10.2025 156 21.3N 68.0W 1003 44
0000UTC 12.10.2025 168 23.9N 68.4W 1000 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 8.0N 20.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 144 7.7N 21.3W 1009 34
1200UTC 11.10.2025 156 8.4N 24.0W 1009 32
0000UTC 12.10.2025 168 9.1N 28.1W 1009 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 33.4N 75.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2025 168 33.0N 75.5W 1003 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050403


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 050244
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
800 PM MST Sat Oct 04 2025

...PRISCILLA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 106.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 106.7 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow, generally
northward drift is expected through Sunday, followed by a faster
northwestward motion beginning on Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Priscilla is expected to move offshore of and parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Priscilla is
expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night or Monday.

Priscilla is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico on Sunday and Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacán and far western Guerrero, rainfall amounts of
4 to 6 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 8 inches.
Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero along the
coast, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall will bring
a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 050245
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 PM MST SAT OCT 04 2025

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PRISCILLA SUGGESTS THE STORM IS
CONTENDING WITH SOME SHEAR THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. LARGE CURVED BANDS WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 36-45 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/3 KT. PRISCILLA HAS
NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE EARLIER TODAY, AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND A
BROADER SYSTEM CENTER. WHILE PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND THE
STORM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, A SLOW AND ERRATIC
NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. BY MONDAY, A SOMEWHAT FASTER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
WHILE PRISCILLA MOVES BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE
CROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY AT DAYS 3-5. THIS IS
LIKELY RELATED TO DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST, AND THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 96-120 H NHC
TRACK FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER LEFT, FOLLOWING
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND REMAINING BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.

DESPITE THE STORM'S LARGE SIZE, MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FAVORS STEADY TO EVEN SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION
ONCE PRISCILLA CONSOLIDATES AN INNER CORE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
THE LARGE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THOSE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS ONCE ITS STRUCTURE IMPROVES. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS
PRISCILLA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MONDAY WITH SOME CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BEYOND 72 H
AS PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER,
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE GAINING LATITUDE.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 15.6N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.6N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 17.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 18.4N 108.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 19.3N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 20.2N 111.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.3N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 050244
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0300 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 70SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.6N 107.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...200NE 110SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.4N 107.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.4N 108.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...190NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 110.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.2N 111.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 114.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 106.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 042344
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
500 PM MST Sat Oct 04 2025

...LARGE PRISCILLA MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 106.6W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow, generally
northward drift is expected through Sunday, followed by a faster
northwestward motion beginning on Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Priscilla is expected to move offshore of and parallel
to the coast of southwestern Mexico through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Priscilla is
expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Priscilla is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico on Sunday and Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and far western Guerrero, rainfall amounts of
4 to 6 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 8 inches.
Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero along the
coast, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall will bring
a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 042032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 PM MST Sat Oct 04 2025

...A LARGE TROPICAL STORM, PRISCILLA, FORMS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 106.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Priscilla.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 106.6 West. Priscilla
is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow,
generally northward drift is expected through Sunday, followed by a
faster northwestward motion beginning on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move offshore of and
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico through early next
week.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
forecast during the next few days, and Priscilla is expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Priscilla is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area Sunday and Monday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal
portions of Michoacán and far western Guerrero, rainfall amounts of
4 to 6 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 8 inches.
Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero along the
coast, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall will bring
a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the
coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula by Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 042033
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025
200 PM MST Sat Oct 04 2025

The satellite presentation of Invest 99E has continued to improve
today, with an elongated convective band having formed through
the western and northern part of the circulation. Given the
system’s broad nature, its center definition had been questionable,
particularly based on ASCAT data from yesterday evening. However, a
recent 1645 UTC ASCAT pass showed that the center has become
significantly better defined, with 35-40 kt winds occurring north
and northwest of the center. Based on these data, advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Priscilla, with an estimated
intensity of 40 kt.

Priscilla is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at 8 kt. A
large-scale trough is currently located over the western United
States and extends southward over Baja California, leaving
Priscilla in an environment of weak steering currents. In the
short term, that should cause the storm to slow down and drift in a
general northward direction for the next 36 hours. After that
time, Priscilla is expected to settle in to a more steady
northwestward track as a stronger mid-level ridge builds over
northern Mexico and the deep-layer trough remains entrenched over
the western United States. For most of the forecast period, the
NHC track forecast leans on the eastern side of the guidance
envelope, in the vicinity of the ECMWF, HCCA consensus aid, and
Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Priscilla will be moving over sea surface temperatures of about 29
degrees Celsius during the next couple of days, coincident with a
period of strong upper-level divergence. These conditions should
support strengthening, although the system's large size could limit
the rate of intensification in the short term. That said, some of
the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are greater than 50% within
36 and 48 hours, so if Priscilla can develop a tighter inner core
within the larger wind field, more significant strengthening would
be possible. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Priscilla to
become a hurricane by Sunday night, with strengthening continuing
through Tuesday. Cooler water temperatures and a less favorable
atmosphere should induce weakening by Wednesday and Thursday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico within the watch area Sunday and
Monday. Interests in the southern portion of Baja California Sur
should also monitor the progress of Priscilla.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact coastal
sections of southwestern Mexico through Monday, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.

3. Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach the coasts of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.8N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 16.3N 106.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.0N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 17.8N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 18.8N 109.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 19.7N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 21.7N 113.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 24.1N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 042032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 04 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 60SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.3N 106.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 107.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 110SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 108.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 109.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.7N 113.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.1N 115.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 106.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=