Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JERRY-25
in Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Virgin Islands British, Virgin Islands U.S., Saint Kitts and Nevis, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 112033
TCDAT5

Remnants Of Jerry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

A combination of scatterometer data, GOES-East derived motion
winds, and a recent GPM microwave pass seems to confirm that Jerry
does not have a well-defined center and has degenerated into a
trough with deep convection located at the southeastern end of the
axis. As a result, this will be the last NHC advisory on this
system. Maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt based on ASCAT data
from this morning.

The rough motion estimate is northward, or 360/14 kt. The remnant
trough is expected to move northward and then northeastward, with
the European, Canadian, and UKMET models showing it merging with a
frontal boundary to its north in 24-36 hours. Gale-force winds are
likely to continue to the east and north of the trough until it
merges with the front. The GFS continues to keep the remnants as a
distinct feature, but given that its initial position of the
remnants is too far to the southeast, it is still considered an
outlier solution.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.6N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 112033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Jerry Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

...JERRY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 63.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Jerry were located near
latitude 27.6 North, longitude 63.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) but are expected to turn
toward the northeast over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. The remnants are expected to continue producing gale-force
winds until it merges with a frontal boundary in a day or two.

Gale-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) to the
east of the remnant center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are affecting the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the Bahamas. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 112032
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 11 2025

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 63.6W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 63.6W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 63.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 111601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 109.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 0 21.6N 109.2W 1004 29
0000UTC 12.10.2025 12 24.0N 110.6W 1004 28
1200UTC 12.10.2025 24 25.5N 110.8W 1004 26
0000UTC 13.10.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 63.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 0 25.8N 63.7W 1007 39
0000UTC 12.10.2025 12 28.5N 63.4W 1008 37
1200UTC 12.10.2025 24 30.6N 62.9W 1009 35
0000UTC 13.10.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 31.4N 78.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2025 12 32.2N 77.9W 999 43
1200UTC 12.10.2025 24 32.5N 78.2W 998 35
0000UTC 13.10.2025 36 32.9N 78.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 13.10.2025 48 32.5N 78.2W 1004 34
0000UTC 14.10.2025 60 31.7N 76.6W 1007 29
1200UTC 14.10.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.3N 43.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.10.2025 60 15.3N 43.4W 1009 34
1200UTC 14.10.2025 72 17.1N 43.6W 1009 36
0000UTC 15.10.2025 84 19.2N 45.2W 1009 28
1200UTC 15.10.2025 96 21.3N 44.8W 1009 28
0000UTC 16.10.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 37.7N 60.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2025 84 38.3N 61.1W 998 34
1200UTC 15.10.2025 96 40.0N 60.9W 983 45
0000UTC 16.10.2025 108 40.9N 57.0W 974 49
1200UTC 16.10.2025 120 42.7N 54.6W 966 49
0000UTC 17.10.2025 132 44.2N 53.2W 967 47
1200UTC 17.10.2025 144 45.8N 50.2W 980 37
0000UTC 18.10.2025 156 48.0N 48.1W 988 29
1200UTC 18.10.2025 168 48.5N 47.0W 993 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 7.1N 121.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.10.2025 108 6.9N 121.7W 1007 22
1200UTC 16.10.2025 120 6.7N 122.9W 1007 25
0000UTC 17.10.2025 132 6.9N 123.5W 1006 24
1200UTC 17.10.2025 144 7.6N 123.5W 1007 24
0000UTC 18.10.2025 156 8.1N 122.8W 1007 23
1200UTC 18.10.2025 168 9.0N 122.0W 1008 18


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111601


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 111601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 109.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.10.2025 21.6N 109.2W WEAK
00UTC 12.10.2025 24.0N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2025 25.5N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 63.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.10.2025 25.8N 63.7W WEAK
00UTC 12.10.2025 28.5N 63.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2025 30.6N 62.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 31.4N 78.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2025 32.2N 77.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2025 32.5N 78.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 32.9N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2025 32.5N 78.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2025 31.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.3N 43.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.10.2025 15.3N 43.4W WEAK
12UTC 14.10.2025 17.1N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2025 19.2N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2025 21.3N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 37.7N 60.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.10.2025 38.3N 61.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.10.2025 40.0N 60.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.10.2025 40.9N 57.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.10.2025 42.7N 54.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.10.2025 44.2N 53.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2025 45.8N 50.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.10.2025 48.0N 48.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2025 48.5N 47.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 7.1N 121.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.10.2025 6.9N 121.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.10.2025 6.7N 122.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2025 6.9N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2025 7.6N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2025 8.1N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2025 9.0N 122.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111601


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 111455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

...DISHEVELED JERRY MAY NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 63.2W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 63.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast
is forecast on Sunday, followed by an eastward motion on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could
degenerate into a trough of low pressure at any time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will likely
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 111456
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

There are strong indications this morning that Jerry may no longer
have a well-defined center of circulation. Although there is
obvious mid-level rotation in a small area of deep convection, low
cloud lines in visible satellite imagery suggest the system may
have degenerated into a surface trough of low pressure, which is
echoed by global model fields. We will continue advisories at the
moment, pending some ASCAT data which should provide some additional
clarity on the system's structure. Advisories could be discontinued
at any time if new data shows that Jerry has opened up into a
trough.

Satellite intensity estimates are no higher than about 45 kt, so
the current intensity is reduced to that value. The European,
UKMET, and Canadian models show Jerry's circulation remaining
stretched out and weakening while beginning to merge with a
frontal boundary located to its north near 30N in about 24 hours.
Even the GFS, which keeps Jerry separate from the frontal boundary,
shows the peak winds decreasing. The new NHC forecast now shows
Jerry becoming post-tropical by 48 hours and dissipating 72 hours,
but both of these transitions could occur much earlier.

Although the center is not well defined, the entire system is
moving northward (005 degrees) at 14 kt. A turn toward the
northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by an eastward motion on
Monday as Jerry merges with a front and becomes embedded in
mid-latitude westerly flow. The new track forecast is generally
just an update of the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 25.8N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 28.0N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 32.0N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 32.6N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 14/0000Z 32.0N 56.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 111455
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1500 UTC SAT OCT 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 63.2W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 240SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 63.2W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 62.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 60.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.6N 59.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.0N 56.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 110858
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

Jerry has become slightly better organized this morning. Recent
satellite images and AMSR2 passive microwave data show that new deep
convection has developed closer to the estimated center position of
the storm, with some evidence of curved banding noted in the 89 GHz
channel. Based on these developments, the initial intensity is held
at 50 kt, which is consistent with the scatterometer data from last
night. The wind field remains asymmetric, with tropical-storm-force
winds confined to the eastern semicircle of the storm.

The estimated initial motion of Jerry is north (005 deg) at 14 kt. A
general northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast through
the weekend as the storm moves along the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge. As this feature becomes reoriented to the south
of Jerry early next week, the system is forecast to turn eastward as
it interacts with a front and moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies. The updated NHC forecast trends toward a simple
consensus of the global models and was generally adjusted to the
left of the previous prediction.

There are some indications in satellite imagery that the center of
Jerry may still be elongated. Even if the storm is able to maintain
a well-defined circulation over the next couple of days, there is
little to suggest that Jerry will strengthen. As the storm moves
northward, it will remain in a moderate shear environment and
eventually move over marginal SSTs. Because of this, the NHC
forecast shows gradual weakening through early next week. While
Jerry appears likely to merge with a frontal system to its north and
become extratropical at some point during the forecast period, there
are differences among the global models as to when this will occur.
The GFS remains an outlier, and so the NHC prediction favors the
earlier frontal interaction shown by the ECMWF and Canadian models.
Alternatively, the cyclone could become stretched out and absorbed
along the front even sooner than forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Bahamas today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 24.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 29.0N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 31.1N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 33.0N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 33.2N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 32.5N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 110856
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 63.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 63.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through the weekend, followed
by a turn toward the east on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center in the eastern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread
toward the Bahamas this morning. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 110856
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0900 UTC SAT OCT 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 63.4W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....275NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 63.4W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.0N 62.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.0N 60.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.2N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 63.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 110240
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry's low-level circulation remains rather ill-defined especially
on the northwest side of the cyclone, where a surface trough extends
northwestward from Jerry. The SHIPS guidance is showing about 15-20
kt of northwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear in Jerry's
environment, which is displacing convection to the southeast of the
center. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are
still occurring over the Virgin Islands, but the rainband that was
producing the persistent heavy rain over the northeastern Caribbean
Islands has weakened from earlier and is starting to move away. A
recent ASCAT pass shows maximum winds around 50 kt, so the intensity
has been raised to 50 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher
than the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. The tropical-storm-force
winds are limited to the eastern semicircle of Jerry.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 350 degrees at 13 kt.
This general motion should continue through Saturday night because a
north-south-oriented mid-level ridge is currently located to the
east of the cyclone. By Sunday night, Jerry should turn eastward as
it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. Only minor
adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which
generally lies in between the simple and corrected consensus models.

Jerry is likely to continue battling moderate to strong shear during
the next couple of days, and global model fields (with the exception
of the GFS) suggest that the storm will maintain an elongated
circulation through this period. Although the shear might decrease
a bit after 48 hours, at that point Jerry will be moving over more
marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
environment. No changes were made to the previous NHC intensity
forecast, which is near, or slightly below the middle of the
guidance envelope. The global model fields (with the exception of
the GFS) show Jerry interacting with a front by Sunday night, and
the NHC forecast shows Jerry becoming post-tropical by Monday
evening, with dissipation along the front a day or two later. The
GFS maintains Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that
solution is considered an outlier.

It should be noted that the circulation of Jerry is quite
ill-defined on the northwest side. Therefore, it is possible that
Jerry could dissipate at any time this weekend. However, given that
most of the global and regional models hold on to the circulation
into Sunday, the most likely scenario seems to be that Jerry will
stick around for at least another 2 days or so until it begins
interacting with the front.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Jerry will lift north of the Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico overnight. As a result, the risk for
flash flooding will diminish.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Bahamas by Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 22.7N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 24.6N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 27.4N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 32.0N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 31.4N 56.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 15/0000Z 29.8N 51.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 110239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0300 UTC SAT OCT 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 63.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....275NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 63.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 63.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.4N 62.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.0N 58.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.4N 56.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 29.8N 51.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 63.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 110239
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...JERRY PULLING AWAY FROM NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT HEAVY
RAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR NORTHERN
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 63.9W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 63.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday night. A northeastward to
eastward motion is forecast on Sunday and Monday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through the rest of the night, outer rain bands extending
south of Jerry may bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across
parts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
eastern Puerto Rico. This rainfall is not expected to cause any
additional flash flooding concerns.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Bahamas by Saturday morning. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 102035
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry's center remains somewhat ill defined and embedded along the
eastern end of a southeast-to-northwest oriented surface trough.
Strong shear out of the north-northwest is displacing much of the
associated deep convection south-southeast of the center, with
trailing bands still producing heavy rains over portions of the
Leeward Islands. Based on ASCAT data from this morning, the
maximum winds are still estimated to be 45 kt, with
tropical-storm-force winds limited to the eastern side of the
circulation.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/13 kt. Jerry
is expected to turn northward by tonight as it moves around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with that motion
continuing through Saturday night. A northeastward to eastward
motion is expected Sunday through Tuesday as Jerry becomes embedded
within mid-latitude westerly flow. The new NHC track forecast is
not too different than the previous prediction since there have not
been any significant model changes from 6 hours ago.

Jerry is likely to continue battling moderate to strong shear
during the next couple of days, and global model fields (with the
exception of the GFS) suggest that the storm will maintain an
elongated circulation through this period. Although the shear
might decrease a bit after 48 hours, at that point Jerry will be
moving over more marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more
stable environment. The NHC forecast now shows little to no change
in Jerry's intensity through day 3, which is close to that shown by
the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. The same global model fields
also show Jerry possibly interacting with a front in 48-72 hours,
and the updated NHC forecast now shows extratropical transition by
day 4 with dissipation along the front by day 5. The GFS maintains
Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that solution is
considered an outlier.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
tonight, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward
the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas tonight and on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 21.5N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 23.4N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.3N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.3N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 31.4N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 31.4N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 30.1N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 102034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...JERRY'S TRAILING BANDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 63.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 63.6 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by tonight, with that motion
continuing through Saturday night. A northeastward to eastward
motion is forecast Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through tonight, 2 to 4 inches of additional rain are
expected across the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands. The
additional heavy rainfall will maintain a risk of flash flooding,
especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. Moisture associated
with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in an
additional 2 to 4 inches of rain as well across eastern Puerto Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican
Republic and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the
Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas tonight and on Saturday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 102034
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
2100 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 63.6W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....275NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 63.6W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.4N 63.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.4N 60.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.4N 58.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 30.1N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 101442
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry is not a healthy tropical storm this morning. The low-level
circulation, as seen in satellite imagery and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data, is elongated in a southeast-northwest
direction with most of the associated deep convection displaced
well to the south-southeast. The current intensity is held at 45
kt, based on a maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 54 kt measured
by the reconnaissance aircraft and recent ASCAT data. All of the
tropical-storm-force winds appears to be within the eastern
semicircle.

With the center not all that well defined, the current motion
estimate of northwestward (325 degrees) at 14 kt is a bit
uncertain. Jerry is expected to turn northward later today as it
moves around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with
that trajectory continuing through early Sunday. Then, a sharp
northeastward and eastward turn is expected by Sunday night and
Monday as Jerry becomes embedded in mid-latitude westerly flow.
The NHC track forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aid
during that period and is not too different from the previous
prediction. On days 4 and 5, the official forecast has been nudged
southward a bit based on the latest model trends.

Jerry continues to move in a direction directly into the shear
vector, and this orientation is unlikely to change at least for the
next 48 hours. After 48 hours, the storm's motion and shear vector
become more aligned, but then the storm will be moving over more
marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
atmosphere. As a result, the intensity guidance has continued to
trend downward. The NHC forecast now only shows the possibility of
some slight strengthening, but overall the intensity is nearly
flatlined through day 5.

Thickness fields from the European, UKMET, and Canadian models
suggest that Jerry could start to become entangled in a frontal
boundary by Monday, and the Google DeepMind model loses a large
number of its ensemble members by Tuesday. Therefore, the NHC
forecast now shows Jerry becoming extratropical by Wednesday, if not
sooner. Only the GFS keeps Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day
5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater
Antilles today and tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 20.2N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 26.9N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.2N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 30.8N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 31.4N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.4N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 30.8N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 101441
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 63.4W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....275NE 210SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 63.4W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.9N 63.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.2N 62.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.8N 61.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.4N 59.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.4N 54.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 30.8N 47.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 63.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 101441
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...JERRY'S CENTER PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
BUT FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 63.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 63.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected by this evening, with that motion continuing
through Sunday. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is
forecast Sunday night and Monday.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter and satellite-derived wind data
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during
the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through today, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across
the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep
terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry
may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches
possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater
Antilles today and tonight. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 101147
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...DESPITE JERRY'S CENTER MOVING NORTH, FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 63.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next several hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 63.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected tonight into Saturday, followed by a northward
to north-northeastward motion through the rest of the weekend. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue passing to
the north of the Leeward Islands this morning, then move away from
the islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow
strengthening is possible over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected in
the warning area and are possible in the watch area this morning.

RAINFALL: Through today, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across
the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep
terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry
combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4
inches of rain, with isolated amounts of 6 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm
total rainfall graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater
Antilles today and tonight. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 100936
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
535 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS...

The meteorological service of the Netherlands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 100855
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry is still a disorganized tropical storm. The cloud pattern
remains sheared, with deep convection displaced to the south and
east of the low-level center. Earlier aircraft fixes and recent
satellite images suggest the center could be becoming elongated, and
dropsonde data indicated the central pressure was gradually rising
during the previous mission. The storm has not become any better
organized since that time, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt
based on a blend of the earlier aircraft wind data and more recent
satellite intensity estimates. Although the center of Jerry is
passing north of the Leeward Islands, radar data show that heavy
rainfall continues across much of the region, leading to an
increased threat of flash flooding. Another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Jerry.

The storm is moving toward the northwest (315/15 kt), but a
northward turn is expected by tonight as Jerry moves along the
western extent of a subtropical ridge and pulls away from the
islands. This northward motion should continue through the weekend,
keeping the center of Jerry well to the southeast of Bermuda on
Sunday. The latest track guidance is in fairly good agreement on
this part of the forecast, and little change was made to the NHC
prediction, which lies near HCCA and the Google DeepMind mean. By
early next week, Jerry is forecast to turn northeastward and
eastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. This part of the track
forecast is more uncertain, as greater spread is noted in the models
regarding how quickly Jerry becomes captured within this flow.
During this period, the updated NHC forecast is slower and slightly
south of the previous one, following the latest multi-model
consensus trends.

Jerry has been unable to develop a more coherent structure over the
past couple of days within a moderate to strong northwesterly shear
environment. Given its current appearance and the continued shear,
little strengthening is expected in the near term. In fact, the
latest intensity guidance has trended downward, and some models
suggest Jerry may not strengthen at all going forward. Since there
are indications in the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS that the shear
could lessen a bit over the weekend, the updated NHC forecast shows
some modest strengthening, but Jerry is no longer predicted to
become a hurricane. This forecast still lies on the high end of the
guidance, so future downward adjustments could be necessary if
Jerry continues to struggle.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, could still affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this morning. These
conditions are expected to subside later today as Jerry moves away
from the area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 19.2N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 20.9N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 23.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 30.5N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 31.6N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 31.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 31.5N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 100852
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES AS HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM JERRY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 62.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Barbuda and Anguilla, as well as the Tropical
Storm Watch for Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next several hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
several hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 62.5 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight into Saturday, followed by a northward to
north-northeastward motion through the rest of the weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue passing to the
north of the Leeward Islands this morning, then move away from the
islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, but slow strengthening
is possible over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected in
the warning area and are possible in the watch area this morning.

RAINFALL: Through today, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across
the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep
terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry
combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4
inches of rain, with isolated amounts of 6 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm
total rainfall graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater
Antilles today and tonight. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 100851
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 62.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....275NE 210SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 62.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 62.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.9N 63.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 61.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.6N 60.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 31.6N 56.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 51.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 90SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 62.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 100545
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
200 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JERRY CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 62.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next several hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
several hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 62.1 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue with a gradual slowdown today, followed by a
northward turn tonight into Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Jerry will pass to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands through this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, but slow strengthening
is possible over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area this morning.

RAINFALL: Through today, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across
the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep
terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry
combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4
inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm
total rainfall graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater
Antilles today and tonight. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 100256
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

Jerry remains a disheveled tropical storm this evening. Most of the
deep convection is displaced to the southeast of the low-level
circulation, which continues to run out ahead due to continued
northwesterly vertical wind shear. Air Force reconnaissance
observations indicate a highly asymmetric wind field, with the peak
850 mb flight level winds of 56 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and
very little wind on the western side of the circulation. The flight
level winds support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt this
advisory. The surface pressure has been rising as well, with the
latest dropsonde data supporting a minimum value of 1005 mb.

Jerry appears to finally be moving northwestward now, estimated at
315/15 kt. The track reasoning remains about the same as this
afternoon, as Jerry's track should gradually bend more poleward as
it moves along the western side of a subtropical ridge. On the
forecast track, Jerry is making its closest approach to the Leeward
Islands currently, and its asymmetric wind field means that the
majority of the stronger winds will stay east of the island chain.
Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is
forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass
east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward
asymmetry, significant impacts still remain unlikely there. The NHC
track forecast is quite similar to the prior one, and is a rough
blend between the slower and further west HCCA guidance and the
faster and further east Google DeepMind Mean (GDMI).

The tropical storm is struggling mightily against the unfavorable
northwesterly vertical winds shear, and its current poor structure
also does not bode well for future short-term intensification. After
the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind
shear does decrease to 10-15 knots, but given the current structure,
it may take some time for the system to recover. Nonetheless,
gradual intensification is shown beginning in 36 hours, though the
intensity forecast is lower than the previous advisory. Shear
increases towards the end of the forecast and sea-surface
temperatures decrease as Jerry recurves into the mid-latitude
westerlies, and some weakening is shown again in 120 h. This remains
a low confidence intensity forecast, and on the high side of the
overall guidance envelope.

The most significant hazard expected from Jerry over the next few
days is heavy rainfall, even after Jerry passes to the north due to
its current structure with most of the significant weather to the
south and east of the tropical cyclone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 18.2N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.5N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.1N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 29.5N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 31.8N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 32.5N 51.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 100252
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AS IT PASSES BY JUST EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 61.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 18.2
North, longitude 61.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest
near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a
gradual slowdown on Friday followed by a turn northward Friday night
into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will pass
just east of the northern Leeward Islands tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow, but slow
strengthening is possible over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area tonight and Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across
the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep
terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry
combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4
inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm
total rainfall graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells
are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over
the next couple of days, are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 100251
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 61.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....275NE 210SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 61.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 61.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.5N 63.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.1N 62.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.5N 62.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 57.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 95NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.5N 51.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 61.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 092354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY PASSING JUST EAST OF BARBUDA THIS EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 61.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
17.5 North, longitude 61.1 West. Jerry is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is
expected later tonight, followed by a slightly slower northward
motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near the northern Leeward Islands this
evening and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow, but
slow strengthening is possible over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area and are possible in the watch area tonight and
Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across
the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep
terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry
combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4
inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm
total rainfall graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells
are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over
the next couple of days, are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 092036
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

Satellite images, aircraft observations, and ASCAT data indicate
that Jerry is a poorly organized and strongly sheared tropical
storm. The low-level center is now fully exposed and elongated,
with the main area of deep convection located on the system's south
and southeast sides. The initial intensity is again held at 55 kt,
but that could be a little generous. The center of Jerry is less
than 100 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, which is often
close enough to experience strong winds. However, the ASCAT and
aircraft data showed that the strongest winds are confined to a
region east of the center. In fact, winds are quite light on the
west side.

Jerry has been moving erratically today, but smoothing through the
fixes suggest that the storm is gradually turning to the right. The
initial motion is now estimated to be 300/16 kt. This general
motion should continue through early Friday, taking the center of
the system near or over the northern Leeward Islands during that
time. However, as mentioned above, the strongest winds should pass
to the east of the islands due to Jerry's asymmetric structure. A
turn to the north is expected to occur by late tomorrow, and that
motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm
moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. Early
next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is
forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass
east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward
asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there. No
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and
this prediction is in best agreement with the HCCA and Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.

Strengthening in the short term seems unlikely given Jerry's poor
initial structure. However, after the storm passes the northern
Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear could decrease some while
Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore,
slow strengthening is predicted from late Friday through Sunday. The
opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next week when
the system moves into stronger shear and over cooler waters. The
NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward due to a combination
of the storm's poor initial structure and latest guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 17.3N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 092035
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 60.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 60.6 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected by the evening, followed by a
slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near the
northern Leeward Islands this evening and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow,
but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
mainly east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area and are possible in the watch area tonight and
Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across
the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep
terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry
combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4
inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm
total rainfall graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells
are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over
the next couple of days, are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 092034
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
2100 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 60.6W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....275NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 60.6W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 60.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 091920
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
320 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR GUADELOUPE...

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Guadeloupe.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 091743
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
200 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 60.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Anguilla. The government of France has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for St. Barthelemy and St. Martin. The government of
Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 60.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected by the evening, followed by a
slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to
the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands this evening and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area and are possible in the watch area later today into
early Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm
total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially
in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico,
moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic
effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6
inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward
and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the
Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 091441
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
Jerry this morning, and the radar and flight-level wind data show
that the storm remains lopsided with nearly all of the strong winds
and convection on the system's east side. The center itself has
been difficult to fix, but the data generally support a position
that is located south-southeast of the previous track. The initial
intensity is held at 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft
data and satellite estimates.

The initial motion of Jerry is somewhat uncertain given its poor
low-level structure, but our best guess is west-northwestward at 16
kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion should occur today,
bringing the center of the storm just east of the northern Leeward
Islands later today and tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds are
expected in Barbuda and possible on some of the other islands,
however, given Jerry's asymmetric structure, the strongest winds
should pass to the east of the island chain. A turn to the north is
expected to occur tomorrow, and that motion should continue through
most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western
side of a subtropical ridge. Early next week, a faster eastward or
east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude
westerlies. All of the models show Jerry passing east of Bermuda in
3 or 4 days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant
impacts appear unlikely there. The new track forecast is a little to
the left of the previous one in the short term, due to the initial
position adjustment, but ends up near the previous track from 48 to
120 h. This prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and
Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.

Significant strengthening seems unlikely given Jerry's elongated
low-level structure. However, the shear is expected to let up some
while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass.
Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted during the next few
days. Slow weakening seems like a good bet beyond a few days when
Jerry is forecast to be moving over slightly cooler SSTs and into
stronger shear. The NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the
previous one and is in best agreement with the HCCA model.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to Barbuda
later today and tonight, and could bring tropical storm conditions
to other portions of the northern Leeward Islands by tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 15.9N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.1N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 19.0N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 21.7N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.2N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 26.5N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 28.5N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 31.3N 59.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 31.4N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 091439
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 59.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Barbuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 59.1 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected late today, followed by a slightly
slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Barbuda
later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area
later today into Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm
total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially
in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico,
moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic
effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6
inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the
Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 091439
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1500 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 59.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....275NE 180SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 59.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 58.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.1N 60.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.0N 62.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.7N 63.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.2N 63.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 62.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 62.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.3N 59.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 31.4N 54.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 59.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 091150
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 58.4W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 58.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a
slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to
the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area later today into
Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm
total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially
in urban areas and in steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the
Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 090847
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

Jerry still has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm.
Proxy-visible satellite images show the low-level center lies near
the northwestern edge of the convective cloud mass. Deep convection
is mostly confined to the eastern and southeastern portions of the
circulation. Based on the prior aircraft data and a recent T3.5/55
kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity is held at
55 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to
investigate Jerry this morning.

The storm is moving west-northwestward (290/17 kt), but is expected
to turn toward the northwest later today as Jerry moves around
the southwestern extent of a subtropical ridge. The center of Jerry
should pass just to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
later today and tonight. Based on the earlier aircraft fixes and the
latest track guidance, the updated NHC forecast brings Jerry
marginally closer to the northern Leeward Islands during this time.
However, the risk of sustained tropical-storm-force winds impacting
these islands remains low since the strongest winds are occurring
to the east of the center, with much weaker winds found on the west
side of the storm. By Friday night, Jerry should turn northward
within the flow between the central Atlantic subtropical ridge and
an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic. This motion is
forecast through the weekend, followed by a sharp turn toward the
east as the storm becomes caught in mid-latitude westerly flow. The
updated NHC forecast track still keeps Jerry well to the southeast
of Bermuda at 72-96 h, and no notable changes were made to the
latter half of the track forecast.

Only modest strengthening is forecast during the next 12-24 h given
the current sheared structure of Jerry. While the storm remains in a
moderate to strong shear environment, there are signs that the
northwesterly shear could lessen on Friday and Saturday, and the NHC
forecast shows Jerry becoming a hurricane during that time. Overall,
there remains a significant amount of spread and a lack of
consistency in the long-range intensity guidance for Jerry. While
the HAFS hurricane models now show significant strengthening to
major hurricane intensity, other guidance like the GFS and Google
DeepMind show little net intensity change during the next several
days. The NHC intensity forecast remains in between the extreme
solutions, showing gradual strengthening as Jerry moves northward
away from the Leeward Islands, followed by gradual weakening later
in the period as Jerry encounters stronger shear and cooler waters.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas
and in steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 15.7N 57.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.0N 59.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 18.8N 61.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 21.2N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 23.8N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 26.2N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 31.7N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 31.8N 54.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 090844
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY ON
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE THE
STORM THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 57.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a
slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to
the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area later today into
Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm
total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially
in urban areas and in steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the
Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 090843
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0900 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 57.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 57.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 57.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.0N 59.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.8N 61.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.2N 62.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.8N 63.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.2N 62.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.7N 60.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 54.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 57.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 090543
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
200 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 57.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 57.1 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn to the
northwest at a slower forward speed should begin tonight, followed
by a northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Jerry could become a hurricane late this week or this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late today into
Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm
total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands. This rainfall
brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands today, then spread westward toward the Greater
Antilles on Friday into the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 090250
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

A very large and cold convective burst has formed near and to the
east of Jerry this evening, with cloud top temperatures below -80 C
and plenty of ongoing lightning near the overshooting tops. During
this period, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has been
sampling the storm, and found a peak 850 mb flight level wind of 66
kt on their northeast outbound leg of the storm. In addition, there
was a dropsonde launched in the inner max wind band near the center,
which had a 500 m mean boundary layer wind of 71 kt and a surface
wind gust of 55 kt. Using a 0.8 reduction factor to the layer mean
wind supports the current intensity of 55 kt, which also matched the
T3.5/55 kt Dvorak estimate provided by TAFB.

Jerry continues to move quickly to the west-northwest, although the
convective burst may have slowed down its motion a tad, estimated at
290/18 kt. The forecast track reasoning remains the same this
evening, with a subtropical ridge well-established to the northeast
of the storm, and Jerry will likely be steered around this feature,
turning to the northwest in 24 hours, and then north by 48 hours. On
the forecast track, this takes Jerry about 80-100 n mi to the
northeast of the northern Leeward islands by late tomorrow. There
remain a few hurricane-regional model outliers to the west (HMON,
HAFS-A), but these models appear to be struggling to depict the
cyclone within their inner-nests. The overall track guidance
envelope has remained pretty steady state this evening, and the NHC
forecast track is very close to the prior advisory, blending the
reliable HCCA and GDMI aids. By early next week, the track guidance
has made a more notable shift south as Jerry recurves around the
subtropical ridge, and the track forecast was nudged further south
and east in the 120 h period. While this track puts Jerry safely
southeast of Bermuda, it's a good idea to continue monitoring future
forecasts since model scenarios can change, and NHC track forecasts
at day 4 have an average error of 130 n mi.

Despite the large convective burst, Jerry still remains under
moderate to strong northwesterly shear, currently estimated at
around 25 kt per GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS. However, Jerry has been
putting up a good fight thus far and its wind field has intensified
despite the continued unfavorable conditions, likely because of
other more favorable factors like sea-surface temperatures and an
unstable environment. The intensity guidance this evening presents a
challenge. The 18 UTC GFS, and the hurricane-regional models based
on the GFS, all show very little change in strength and even
dissipate Jerry in the 72-96 h time frame. However, a glance at the
short-term model forecast shows the GFS is struggling to correctly
depict the convective structure of Jerry. To make matters more
confusing, the last several ECMWF runs now show a much stronger
Jerry in the 48-96 h time frame, with the 18 UTC run showing a
strengthening hurricane with pressure below 960 mb. Ultimately, I'm
going to split the difference between these two extreme solutions,
showing Jerry slowly intensifying over the next 24-36 h, then
showing a little more intensification after as the shear decreases
to 15-20 kt in 36 h after the tropical cyclone passes north of the
Leeward Islands. Needless to say this is a low confidence intensity
forecast, and overall the NHC forecast is on the high side of
the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into
Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly
in areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 15.2N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.4N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.0N 60.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.1N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 22.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 25.0N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 27.4N 62.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 31.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 32.3N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 090247
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...JERRY STILL SHEARED BUT PUTTING UP A FIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 56.1W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.2
North, longitude 56.1 West. Jerry is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. A northwestward motion at a
slower forward speed should begin Thursday night, followed by a
northward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Jerry could become a hurricane late this week or this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on earlier aircraft dropsonde
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into
Friday.

RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with
local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward
Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from
Thursday into Saturday morning due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 090246
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0300 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 56.1W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 210SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 56.1W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 55.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 58.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 60.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 55SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.1N 62.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.5N 62.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.0N 62.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.4N 62.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 65SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 31.2N 60.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 32.3N 56.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 56.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 082354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE
STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 55.4W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
14.9 North, longitude 55.4 West. Jerry is moving quickly toward the
west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and and this general motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. A northwestward motion at a
slower forward speed should begin Thursday night, followed by a
northward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

Aircraft dropsonde data indicates that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could
become a hurricane late this week or this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve
dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into
Friday.

RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with
local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward
Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from
Thursday into Saturday morning due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 082032
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

Despite Jerry's significantly sheared structure, the storm's
maximum winds are solidly at 50 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft measured a maximum 5000 ft flight-level wind of 63
kt, which reduces to an intensity of 50 kt. In addition, Jerry's
center passed just south of NOAA buoy 41010, which measured a
1-minute sustained wind of 47 kt a few hours ago. The buoy's
pressure and wind data suggest that Jerry's central pressure is down
to about 1000 mb.

Jerry is still moving quickly west-northwestward at 20 kt, but the
heading has turned slightly to 290 degrees. There's not much
change to the forecast track thinking compared to this morning.
Jerry should move around the southwestern and western periphery of
an eastern/central Atlantic ridge over the next few days, with the
storm turning northwestward by Thursday night and then northward by
Friday night. The bulk of the track models agree on Jerry's center
passing between 60-120 n mi northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands late Thursday. The HMON and HAFS hurricane models bring
the center a bit closer than that, but at this time those are not
considered the most likely scenario. Later in the weekend and
early next week, Jerry is forecast to turn north-northeastward and
then northeastward, and the bulk of the guidance also moves the
storm safely to the southeast of Bermuda in about 4 days. As
always, it's a good idea to continue monitoring future forecasts
since model scenarios can change, and NHC track forecasts at day 4
typically have an average error of 130 n mi.

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear appears likely to continue
for the next few days. At the same time, Jerry's winds are higher
than the satellite appearance would suggest, and warm waters and a
moist, unstable environment could still allow for gradual
strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is not too different
from this morning, bringing Jerry to hurricane strength by Friday
when there could be a slight decrease in shear magnitude. That
said, there is quite a bit of spread in the intensity guidance, and
the NHC forecast is generally between the IVCN and HCCA consensus
aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into
Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly
in areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 14.8N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 15.9N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.4N 59.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 19.4N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.7N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 24.1N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 26.4N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 30.6N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 33.1N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 082032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHEN JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 54.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 54.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A
northwestward motion at a slower forward speed should begin Thursday
night, followed by a northward motion Friday night and Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Jerry could become a hurricane late this week or this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into
Friday.

RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with
local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward
Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from
Thursday into Saturday morning due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 082031
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
2100 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 54.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 54.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 53.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.9N 57.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.4N 59.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.4N 61.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.7N 62.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.1N 62.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.4N 62.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N 61.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N 56.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 54.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 081741
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
200 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 53.7W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 53.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A
turn toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed
is expected late Thursday into Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Jerry could become a hurricane by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. Jerry's center passed just to the south of NOAA
buoy 41040, which measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and
a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA
buoy 41010 is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into
Friday.

RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with
local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward
Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from
Thursday into Saturday morning due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 081452
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

Jerry is a sheared tropical cyclone this morning, with the low-level
center racing out ahead of the associated deep convection. Despite
this structure, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak
700-mb wind of 56 kt, and Tail-Doppler radar data showed winds of
around 75 kt at 500 meters above the surface. Even using a
conservative reduction factor for this data of 70 percent yields
surface winds of about 50 kt. Recent ASCAT data also confirm that
the initial intensity is about 50 kt.

Jerry remains on a quick west-northwestward trajectory (285/20 kt),
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The ridge only
extends as far west as the longitude of the Lesser Antilles, and
the weakness to the west is expected to cause Jerry to turn
northwestward by 36 hours, with the center potentially passing only
60-70 n mi northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The NHC track
forecast is along the western side of the guidance envelope during
the first 36 hours of the forecast. After 36 hours, the track
guidance has trended a bit to the east, showing a sharper
recurvature over the central Atlantic resulting from a large
extratropical cyclone that is expected to develop near the U.S.
east coast over the weekend.

Jerry is moving directly against the analyzed shear vector, and
vertical model soundings suggest this orientation may not change
any time soon. It's becoming more likely that Jerry may remain a
sheared tropical storm for the next few days, and the intensity
guidance has responded accordingly. The updated NHC forecast still
shows the possibility of gradual strengthening through 60-72 hours,
however the peak has been lowered by about 10 kt. It's worth
noting that only two of the reliable models, the HWRF and
COAMPS-TC, are still higher than the official forecast, and the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids suggest additional decreases in the
forecast intensity could be possible in future advisories.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into
Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly
in areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 13.9N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 14.7N 55.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.1N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.9N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 20.0N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 22.5N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 25.1N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 29.6N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 32.7N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 081451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...JERRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 52.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 52.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A
turn toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed
is expected late Thursday into Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into
Friday.

RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with
local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward
Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from
Thursday into Saturday morning due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a
risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 081451
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1500 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 52.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 52.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 51.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.7N 55.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.1N 58.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.9N 60.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.0N 61.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.5N 62.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.1N 62.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 61.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 32.7N 56.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 52.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 081142
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 51.6W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 51.6 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest and north beginning on Friday. On the forecast
track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry is
forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into
Friday.

RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are
expected across the Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall
brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 080844
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...JERRY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 50.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 50.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest and north beginning on Friday. On the forecast
track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north
of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry is
forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into
Friday.

RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are
expected across the Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall
brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 080844
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

Jerry remains poorly organized this morning. Proxy-visible satellite
images indicate the low-level center of the storm is still partially
exposed and elongated, with deep convection displaced well to the
south and east of the center. With no signs of improved convective
organization, the initial intensity of Jerry is held at 45 kt, which
is supported by a 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB and
earlier scatterometer data. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Jerry today.

The storm is racing west-northwestward (285/20 kt) to the south of a
strong low-level ridge extending across the central Atlantic. A
continued west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days. This should bring
the center of the system near or to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands late Thursday into Friday. This part of the NHC
track forecast remains near the center of the guidance envelope,
between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Jerry is forecast
to turn northward by Friday as a deep-layer trough over the western
Atlantic weakens the ridge to the north of the system. Then, Jerry
should accelerate northeastward within the flow ahead of this trough
through early next week. Overall, no noteworthy track changes were
made with this update.

Only modest near-term strengthening is expected due to the sheared
structure of Jerry and its fast forward motion. As the storm begins
to slow down, Jerry should be able to become more vertically aligned
and establish an inner core over very warm waters within generally
favorable environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast shows
a slower rate of strengthening through 24 h, but Jerry is still
forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. Additional strengthening
is anticipated thereafter, and the NHC prediction trends on the
higher side of the intensity guidance later in the forecast period,
closer to HCCA and some of the regional hurricane models.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for many of the northern
Leeward Islands. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the latest updates.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on
Thursday into early Friday, which could result in flash flooding,
particularly in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 13.3N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 15.7N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.3N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 23.6N 63.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.3N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 32.5N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 080843
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0900 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 50.7W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 50.7W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 49.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.7N 56.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.3N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.6N 63.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.3N 63.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 32.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 50.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 080541
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
200 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...JERRY RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 49.8W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 49.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest and north on Friday. On the forecast track, the core
of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry is
expected to become a hurricane by late tonight or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday and
Friday.

RAINFALL: On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the
Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the
Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 080234
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Jerry is
somewhat disorganized this evening. Satellite imagery has been
showing an exposed swirl of low-level clouds to the northwest and
west of the convective mass, with scatterometer data suggesting this
was the western end of an elongated surface circulation. The maximum
scatterometer winds were in the 40-45 kt range, so the initial
intensity remains 45 kt. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/20 kt. Jerry
is currently on the south side of a strong low-level ridge, and
this features should steer the storm west-northwestward for the
next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed. This
motion should take the core of Jerry near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. This part of the
forecast track is close to the various consensus models. However,
the global model forecasts lie to the right of the consensus models,
while the HAFS/HWRF models and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean are
to the left of them. After the cyclone passes the Leeward Islands,
it is expected to turn northward and eventually northeastward due to
the development of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United
States and the western Atlantic. Overall, the new forecast track
is nudged just a little to the left of the previous track through
96 h.

The latest satellite imagery and model analyses suggest that the
environment Jerry is in is not quite as conducive for strengthening
as thought earlier, with the cyclone likely to remain in moderate
westerly shear for the next two to three days. In addition, the
current structure favors a slower development rate. The latest
intensity guidance has responded to these developments by being
less bullish on developing the storm. While the new intensity
forecast calls for the same 85 kt peak intensity as the previous
forecast, it shows a slower rate of development, and the new
forecast lies above the intensity consensus models.

Based on the forecast and the uncertainties, Tropical Storm
Watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward
Islands. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Jerry.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on
Thursday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in
areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 12.8N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 13.6N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 14.9N 55.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.5N 58.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 19.8N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 26.7N 63.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 31.7N 60.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 080234
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

...JERRY NOT WELL ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING QUICKLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 48.7W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of France has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 48.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
forecast during the next couple of days, and Jerry is expected to
become a hurricane by Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday, where Tropical
Storm Watches are in effect.

RAINFALL: On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the
Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 080233
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 48.7W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 48.7W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.6N 51.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.9N 55.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 58.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.8N 62.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 26.7N 63.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 31.7N 60.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 48.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 072335
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 47.5W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, amd Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 47.5 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is
expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands
late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to
become a hurricane in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday, where Tropical
Storm Watches have been issued.

RAINFALL: On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the
Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_al5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 072056
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

Jerry continues to produce bands of deep convection around the
center, with the strongest winds likely still occurring on the north
and east sides of the circulation. The storm remain far from land,
roughly 900 miles east of the Windward Islands. All of the
satellite intensity estimates have increased, and most of them are
around 45 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is
increased to that value. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow.

Jerry continues to move quickly westward at about 20 kt on the
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. The models
insist that a turn to the west-northwest should occur soon with a
gradual reduction in forward speed expected over the next couple of
days as the storm nears the southwestern side of the ridge. This
motion should take the core of Jerry near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. The
best-performing models show the core of Jerry missing the northern
Leeward Islands, however, there are some GFS, ECMWF, and Google Deep
Mind ensemble members that pass very near or over the islands.
Therefore, interests there and in the Virgin Islands should monitor
the system's progress as details in the forward speed of the storm
and strength of the ridge will be the main factors determining how
close Jerry gets to the islands. By the weekend, a turn to the
north is forecast as the ridge weakens and shifts eastward due to a
large-scale trough amplifying over the western Atlantic. The NHC
track forecast remains on the fast side of the guidance through 72
hours, as models often have a slow bias in the tropical Atlantic.
This prediction is slightly left of the previous one, and in best
agreement with HCCA model.

The storm is forecast to continue to strengthen during the next
couple of days as it remains in conducive environmental conditions
of light winds aloft, abundant moisture, and over warm waters. Given
the favorable conditions, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model show
that there is about 20 percent chance of rapid intensification
occurring during the next day or two. The NHC intensity forecast
continues to show Jerry becoming a hurricane in a day or so, with
additional intensification expected after that. After the system
passes by the islands, most of the models show some increase in
shear, which should end the strengthening trend. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and in general
agreement with HCCA and IVCN.

Based on the forecast and the uncertainties, Tropical Storm
Watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward
Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on
Thursday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in
areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 12.0N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 12.8N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.5N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.8N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 30.2N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 072034
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

Jerry continues to produce bands of deep convection around the
center, with the strongest winds likely still occurring on the north
and east sides of the circulation. The storm remain far from land,
roughly 900 miles east of the Windward Islands. All of the
satellite intensity estimates have increased, and most of them are
around 45 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is
increased to that value. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow.

Jerry continues to move quickly westward at about 20 kt on the
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. The models
insist that a turn to the west-northwest should occur soon with a
gradual reduction in forward speed expected over the next couple of
days as the storm nears the southwestern side of the ridge. This
motion should take the core of Jerry near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. The
best-performing models show the core of Jerry missing the northern
Leeward Islands, however, there are some GFS, ECMWF, and Google Deep
Mind ensemble members that pass very near or over the islands.
Therefore, interests there and in the Virgin Islands should monitor
the system's progress as details in the forward speed of the storm
and strength of the ridge will be the main factors determining how
close Jerry gets to the islands. By the weekend, a turn to the
north is forecast as the ridge weakens and shifts eastward due to a
large-scale trough amplifying over the western Atlantic. The NHC
track forecast remains on the fast side of the guidance through 72
hours, as models often have a slow bias in the tropical Atlantic.
This prediction is slightly left of the previous one, and in best
agreement with HCCA model.

The storm is forecast to continue to strengthen during the next
couple of days as it remains in conducive environmental conditions
of light winds aloft, abundant moisture, and over warm waters. Given
the favorable conditions, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model show
that there is about 20 percent chance of rapid intensification
occurring during the next day or two. The NHC intensity forecast
continues to show Jerry becoming a hurricane in a day or so, with
additional intensification expected after that. After the system
passes by the islands, most of the models show some increase in
shear, which should end the strengthening trend. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and in general
agreement with HCCA and IVCN.

Based on the forecast and the uncertainties, Tropical Storm
Watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward
Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to strength and could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on
Thursday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in
areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 12.0N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 12.8N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.5N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.8N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 30.2N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 072033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 46.4W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla. The government of France has
issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Barthelemy and St. Martin.
The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 46.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is
expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands
late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a
hurricane in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday, where Tropical
Storm Watches have been issued.

RAINFALL: On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the
Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_al5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 072032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 46.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 46.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 45.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.8N 49.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N 56.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N 59.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.8N 63.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.2N 61.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 46.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 071504 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

Corrected link to the rip current map in the hazard section

...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 44.6W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be required
later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical
Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6
West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a
hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 071437
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical
central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm
activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone.
This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the
Windward Islands. An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds
between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity
is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry. Convective
bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are
on the storm's east side.

Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. A turn to the
west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge
of the ridge. This should bring the core near or to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Around that
time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the
western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge. In response to the
pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the
west-central Atlantic this weekend. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best
agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which
have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the
northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is
uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the
islands later this week.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to
strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds
appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding
moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a
hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the
northern Leeward Islands. After the system passes by the islands,
the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry
moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable
upper-level wind pattern. For now, the official forecast shows no
change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that
portion of the intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should
monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf,
and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that
area later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 11.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.5N 51.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.9N 54.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.5N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 19.8N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 071434
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 44.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 44.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 43.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.3N 47.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.5N 51.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.9N 54.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 57.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.8N 61.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.4N 62.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 44.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 071434
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 44.6W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be required
later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical
Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6
West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a
hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi