Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-25
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 120402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 63.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2025 0 28.2N 63.6W 1007 36
1200UTC 12.10.2025 12 30.2N 63.2W 1008 39
0000UTC 13.10.2025 24 31.6N 61.9W 1009 31
1200UTC 13.10.2025 36 32.0N 59.5W 1011 31
0000UTC 14.10.2025 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2025 0 24.2N 110.4W 1004 26
1200UTC 12.10.2025 12 26.1N 111.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 13.10.2025 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.2N 77.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2025 0 32.2N 77.5W 996 43
1200UTC 12.10.2025 12 33.0N 78.1W 994 38
0000UTC 13.10.2025 24 33.6N 78.8W 999 36
1200UTC 13.10.2025 36 32.6N 78.3W 1004 29
0000UTC 14.10.2025 48 33.0N 75.4W 1006 31
1200UTC 14.10.2025 60 33.4N 71.9W 1005 30
0000UTC 15.10.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.8N 44.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.10.2025 48 14.8N 44.1W 1009 35
1200UTC 14.10.2025 60 16.9N 44.1W 1008 37
0000UTC 15.10.2025 72 18.8N 45.7W 1008 30
1200UTC 15.10.2025 84 20.8N 44.8W 1007 32
0000UTC 16.10.2025 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 8.0N 119.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2025 72 7.9N 119.5W 1008 23
1200UTC 15.10.2025 84 7.7N 120.4W 1008 23
0000UTC 16.10.2025 96 7.2N 121.4W 1007 23
1200UTC 16.10.2025 108 7.2N 122.3W 1007 23
0000UTC 17.10.2025 120 7.3N 123.0W 1007 22
1200UTC 17.10.2025 132 7.8N 122.8W 1008 22
0000UTC 18.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 35.3N 30.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.10.2025 108 35.3N 30.6W 998 37
0000UTC 17.10.2025 120 37.8N 23.9W 998 33
1200UTC 17.10.2025 132 42.9N 19.4W 998 33
0000UTC 18.10.2025 144 48.1N 18.8W 992 41
1200UTC 18.10.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120401


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 120402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 63.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2025 28.2N 63.6W WEAK
12UTC 12.10.2025 30.2N 63.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 31.6N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2025 32.0N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2025 24.2N 110.4W WEAK
12UTC 12.10.2025 26.1N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.2N 77.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2025 32.2N 77.5W MODERATE
12UTC 12.10.2025 33.0N 78.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 33.6N 78.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2025 32.6N 78.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2025 33.0N 75.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2025 33.4N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.8N 44.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.10.2025 14.8N 44.1W WEAK
12UTC 14.10.2025 16.9N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2025 18.8N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2025 20.8N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 8.0N 119.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.10.2025 7.9N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2025 7.7N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2025 7.2N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2025 7.2N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2025 7.3N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2025 7.8N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 35.3N 30.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.10.2025 35.3N 30.6W MODERATE
00UTC 17.10.2025 37.8N 23.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2025 42.9N 19.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2025 48.1N 18.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120401


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 22.5N 110.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 110.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.3N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
120400Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 110.2W.
12OCT25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 719 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 120233
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
800 PM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

Raymond has been void of deep convection for more than 12 hours and
has therefore degenerated to a remnant low. Based on earlier ASCAT
data and current surface observations from southern Baja California
Sur, the initial intensity is estimated at 25 kt.

The remnant low of Raymond has been moving north-northwestward, or
330 degrees at 8 kt. The center of the weakening low should move
inland over the southern portion of Baja California Sur this
evening. Most of the global and regional models show the remnant low
of Raymond dissipating by Sunday morning, and this solution seems
reasonable, given the unfavorable environment and land interaction.
An hour 12 forecast point is included here for continuity.

The low-level circulation of Raymond won't survive beyond Sunday
morning. However, the moisture associated with the larger envelope
from Raymond will support heavy rainfall, which could result in
flash flooding, into portions of northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern United States for the remainder of this weekend and
into early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 22.9N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 12/1200Z 25.3N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 120232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
800 PM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

...RAYMOND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE LAST NHC
ADVISORY...
...REMNANT MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FOR ANOTHER
FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 110.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Raymond was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 110.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near
9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northwestward to northward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected until dissipation on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the remnants of Raymond will move over Baja
California Sur tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low should gradually weaken and dissipate on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected
across much of Sonora, northwestern Sinaloa, and northern Chihuahua
through Sunday. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially in areas of higher terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2
inches are expected across central Sinaloa, portions of Baja
California Sur, and across the far southeast portion of Baja
California. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential for
additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday
into early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Raymond will continue to affect the
coasts of west-central Mexico and southern Baja California Sur
through tonight, then gradually diminish on Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 120232
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
0300 UTC SUN OCT 12 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 110.0W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 110.0W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.3N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 110.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.9N 109.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 109.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.6N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
112200Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 109.9W.
11OCT25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
761 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
120400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 112032
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Raymond Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 PM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows the low-level swirl of Raymond is
devoid of deep convection as wind shear and drier air take their
toll on the system. A 1600 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass depicts
satellite-derived winds of 27 kt, thus the downgrade of Raymond to
a depression at the intermediate advisory. With the system devoid
of convection it is too weak to classify with satellite intensity
estimates, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the
scatterometer data.

The system is moving north-northwest at an estimated motion of
335/12 kt. A turn to the north, towards Baja California Sur, is
anticipated later today, with the center of the system passing over
the peninsula later this evening and tonight. The NHC track
forecast is near the previous prediction.

Given that the system has not produced convection, it is on the
clock into transitioning to a post-tropical low later tonight.
Convection is not expected to return given the unfavorable
environment. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system continuing
to weaken, becoming a remnant low later tonight, and dissipating on
Sunday.

Although the actual system may not survive beyond Sunday, the
moisture associated with the larger envelope from Raymond will
support heavy rainfall, which could result in flash flooding, into
portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States
this weekend through early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 22.5N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 24.6N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 112031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Raymond Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 PM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

...RAYMOND FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...
...REMNANT MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 109.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Raymond
was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 109.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, with this
motion then continuing through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Raymond is expected to move over the southern portion of
Baja California Sur later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, with Raymond expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8
or more inches are expected across northwestern Sinaloa, Sonora and
northern Chihuahua. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Rainfall totals of
1 to 2 inches are expected across central Sinaloa, the southern
portions of Baja California Sur and across the far southeast portion
of Baja California and far northeast Baja California Sur. Moisture
from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional heavy
rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next
week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the coasts of
southwest and west-central Mexico, and southern Baja California Sur.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 112031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 11 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 109.9W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 109.9W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.6N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 111743
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
1100 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

...RAYMOND WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 109.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Raymond
was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 109.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, with this
motion then continuing through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Raymond is expected to move over the southern portion of
Baja California Sur later today.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, with Raymond expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low tonight or Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Raymond can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO
header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8
or more inches are expected across northwestern Sinaloa, Sonora and
northern Chihuahua. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Rainfall totals of
1 to 2 inches are expected across central Sinaloa, the southern
portions of Baja California Sur and across the far southeast portion
of Baja California and far northeast Baja California Sur. Moisture
from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional heavy
rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next
week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the coasts of
southwest and west-central Mexico, and southern Baja California Sur.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 21.1N 109.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 109.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.6N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.8N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 109.4W.
11OCT25. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 111439
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
800 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Raymond has continued to
deteriorate, rather rapidly, with barely any convection near the
center of the system. The overall circulation has become rather
ragged, and first-light visible imagery shows that the system was
further south and east than expected. Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB have come down due to the waning convection,
ranging between 30 and 35 kt. Given the recent satellite trends, the
initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.

The storm is now moving north-northwest at an estimated motion of
330/13 kt. A turn towards the north is expected later today as the
system rounds the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the
latest NHC forecast track is near the previous one, although
slightly to the right given the initial position adjustment.

Raymond will continue to deal with moderate wind shear, and a drier
more stable airmass throughout the forecast period. The system is
expected to continue to weaken during the next day or so. GFS
simulated IR shows that the center of Raymond may not regain
convection. The latest NHC forecast is for additional weakening, and
for the system to become post-tropical in about a day and
dissipating shortly after, although if latest trends continue this
could occur sooner than forecast.

Although the actual system may not survive beyond a day or so,
moisture associated with the larger envelope from Raymond will
support heavy rainfall into portions of northwestern Mexico and
the southwestern United States this weekend through early next
week.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Baja California Sur
beginning in the next few hours.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact sections of
northwestern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash
flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from
Raymond will bring the threat of additional heavy rains to portions
of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 21.5N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 23.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1200Z 26.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 111437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
800 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

...RAYMOND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 109.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for Las Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 109.2 West. Raymond is
moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, with this motion then
continuing through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Raymond is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja
California Sur later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, with
Raymond expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Baja
California Sur in a few hours.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8
or more inches are expected across northwestern Sinaloa, Sonora and
northern Chihuahua. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Rainfall totals of
1 to 2 inches are expected across central Sinaloa, the southern
portions of Baja California Sur and across the far southeast portion
of Baja California and far northeast Baja California Sur. Moisture
from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional heavy
rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next
week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the coasts of
southwest and west-central Mexico, and southern Baja California Sur.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 111437
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
1500 UTC SAT OCT 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 109.2W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 109.2W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.6N 110.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.8N 111.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 109.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 11/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 111147
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
500 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 109.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 109.4 West. Raymond is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected later today, with this motion then continuing
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is
expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur
later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, with
Raymond expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Las Islas Marias
for the next few hours, and in Baja California Sur beginning later
this morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8
or more inches are expected across Sonora and northern Chihuahua.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and the central to southern
portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential
for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S.
Sunday into early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the coasts of
southwest and west-central Mexico, and southern Baja California Sur.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 008 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 108.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 108.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.6N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.4N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 28.2N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 109.0W.
11OCT25. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 864
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 110835
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

The satellite presentation of Raymond has deteriorated since the
previous advisory, with the cyclone continuing to be affected by
moderate easterly shear, analyzed to be around 18 kt by UW-CIMSS. A
recent scatterometer pass was helpful in identifying the center
position and indicated a peak wind vector of 35 kt. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were
3.0/45 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively, while the objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 32 to 39 kt. Considering these data
and accounting for potential undersampling in the scatterometer
winds, the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt for this
advisory.

Raymond continues to move quickly northwestward, or 310 degrees at
14 kt. A turn toward the north is expected later today as the
cyclone moves between a longwave trough over the southwestern United
States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico. This
general motion is forecast to continue through the weekend, with
Raymond dissipating over the higher terrain of northern Mexico by
late Sunday. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly
westward during the next 12 hours to account for a delayed northward
turn, and it remains very close to the previous prediction
thereafter.

Raymond will continue to be influenced by moderate east to northeast
shear and a dry mid-level environment, while also interacting with
land, including mountainous terrain, during the next couple of days.
These factors should result in gradual weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for Raymond to weaken into a tropical
depression later today or tonight, and dissipate by late Sunday.
Regardless of how long Raymond survives, heavy rainfall is expected
to spread into portions of Mexico and the southwestern United States
this weekend through early next week. See the Key Messages below
for more details.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Las Islas Marias
for the next few hours, and in Baja California Sur beginning later
this morning.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of
additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 20.9N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 22.6N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 25.4N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.2N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 110834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

...RAYMOND TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 109.2 West. Raymond is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected later today, with this motion then continuing
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is
expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur
later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, with
Raymond expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Las Islas Marias
for the next few hours, and in Baja California Sur beginning later
this morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8
or more inches are expected across Sonora and northern Chihuahua.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and the central to southern
portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential
for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S.
Sunday into early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the coasts of
southwest and west-central Mexico and will spread to the coasts of
southern Baja California Sur later this morning. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 110834
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
0900 UTC SAT OCT 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.2W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.2W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.6N 110.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 110.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 11/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 110545
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
1100 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico
* Las Islas Marias
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.5 West. Raymond is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north
Saturday through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Raymond is expected to be near southern Baja California Sur on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight, but the storm is
forecast to weaken as it moves near or over Baja California Sur
on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions within the warning area in
southwestern Mexico are expected to subside soon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected on Las Islas Marias through early this
morning, and in Baja California Sur beginning later this morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8
or more inches are expected across Sonora and northern Chihuahua.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and the central to southern
portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential
for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S.
Sunday into early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the coast of
southwest and west-central Mexico. These swells are expected to
spread to the southern Baja California Sur by early Saturday. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 110401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.10.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.3N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2025 26.3N 115.1W WEAK
12UTC 11.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2025 22.5N 63.8W WEAK
12UTC 11.10.2025 25.5N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 28.9N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2025 31.5N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 107.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2025 19.8N 107.3W WEAK
12UTC 11.10.2025 21.7N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2025 23.8N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2025 26.2N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 31.0N 78.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2025 31.7N 78.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2025 32.2N 77.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2025 32.9N 77.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2025 33.3N 76.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 6.9N 122.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2025 6.9N 122.3W WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2025 6.5N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2025 6.4N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2025 6.6N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110401


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 110401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.10.2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.3N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 0 26.3N 115.1W 1004 28
1200UTC 11.10.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 0 22.5N 63.8W 1008 39
1200UTC 11.10.2025 12 25.5N 63.0W 1008 35
0000UTC 12.10.2025 24 28.9N 62.6W 1007 43
1200UTC 12.10.2025 36 31.5N 63.3W 1008 32
0000UTC 13.10.2025 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 107.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 0 19.8N 107.3W 1000 39
1200UTC 11.10.2025 12 21.7N 109.0W 1003 32
0000UTC 12.10.2025 24 23.8N 110.6W 1003 29
1200UTC 12.10.2025 36 26.2N 110.9W 1003 30
0000UTC 13.10.2025 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 31.0N 78.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2025 24 31.7N 78.3W 999 42
1200UTC 12.10.2025 36 32.2N 77.2W 997 33
0000UTC 13.10.2025 48 32.9N 77.6W 999 34
1200UTC 13.10.2025 60 33.3N 76.1W 1004 33
0000UTC 14.10.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 6.9N 122.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2025 108 6.9N 122.3W 1009 23
0000UTC 16.10.2025 120 6.5N 123.8W 1007 22
1200UTC 16.10.2025 132 6.4N 125.0W 1008 23
0000UTC 17.10.2025 144 6.6N 125.9W 1007 22
1200UTC 17.10.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110401


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 19.7N 107.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 107.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.8N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.9N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.7N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 29.3N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 107.9W.
11OCT25. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 944
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (PRISCILLA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32
PHNC).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 110237
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
800 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

Raymond has generally changed little over the past several hours.
Satellite images show that the convective pattern appears ragged and
lacks banding features. The low-level center is difficult to see,
but it is estimated to be located near the southeastern edge of the
cloud mass due to strong southeasterly vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in general agreement
with the latest satellite intensity estimates. The western edge of
Raymond's convection is getting close to the southern portion of
Baja California Sur, and heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds
are likely to begin there early Saturday.

The storm continues to move swiftly northwestward at about 16 kt
steered by a strong high pressure area centered over northern
Mexico. A trough moving into the western U.S. is expected to erode
the ridge, which should result in a turn toward the north this
weekend. The center of Raymond is expected to reach the southern
portion of Baja California peninsula on Saturday and then move into
the Gulf of California late Saturday and Sunday. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

Continued strong shear, intrusions of dry air, and land interaction
with Baja California should cause Raymond to lose strength during
the next day or two. The official forecast shows Raymond moving
into mainland Mexico in 36 to 48 hours, but it is possible
that Raymond dissipates or degenerates into a remnant low before
then. Regardless of how long Raymond survives, heavy rainfall is
expected to spread into portions of Mexico and the Southwest U.S.
this weekend and early next week. See the Key Messages below for
more details.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, and along portions
of Baja California Sur on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of
additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 20.2N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 21.8N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 23.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 26.7N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 29.3N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 110236
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
800 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 107.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico
* Las Islas Marias
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 107.7 West. Raymond is
moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north
Saturday through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Raymond is expected to be near the southern Baja California Sur on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight, but the storm is
forecast to weaken as it moves near or over Baja California Sur
over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
in Southwestern Mexico and Islas Marias during the next several
hours. These conditions are expected in the warning area in Baja
California Sur starting Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8
or more inches are expected across Sonora and northern Chihuahua.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and the central to southern
portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential
for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S.
Sunday into early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the depression, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the coast of
southwest and west-central Mexico. These swells are expected to
spread to the southern Baja California Sur by early Saturday. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 110236
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
0300 UTC SAT OCT 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.7W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.7W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.8N 109.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.9N 110.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.7N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.3N 111.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 107.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 11/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 102331
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
500 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 107.1W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico
* Las Islas Marias
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 107.1 West. Raymond is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through early Saturday, followed by a northward
motion Saturday evening and Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Raymond is expected to be near the southern Baja
California Sur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight, but the storm is
forecast to weaken as it moves near or over Baja California Sur
over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
in Southwestern Mexico and Islas Marias during the next several
hours. These conditions are expected in the warning area in Baja
California Sur starting Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8
or more inches are expected across Sonora and northern Chihuahua.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and the central to southern
portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential
for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S.
Sunday into early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the depression, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are affecting the coast of
southwest and west-central Mexico. These swells are expected to
spread to the southern Baja California Sur by early Saturday. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 105.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 105.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.5N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.5N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.6N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.1N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 106.7W.
10OCT25. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1039
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (PRISCILLA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32
PHNC).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 102032
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Raymond is producing deep convection
that is mainly concentrated over the western semi-circle. A recent
scatterometer pass shows winds that were not rain-flagged around 40
kt, which given the undersampling of that instrument and the small
size of Raymond supports winds of 45 kt. There continues to be a
large range of subjective and objective satellite intensity as well
with estimates from 30 to 45 kt. Using a combination of the data,
the intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory. In the next 12
hours, there could be an expansion of the wind radii in the
northeast quadrant due to some coastal convergence enhancements.
Thus, the Tropical Storm Warning was issued on the intermediate
advisory for Las Islas Marias.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/14 kt. A
ridge located over northern Mexico will continue to steer the system
towards the northwest the rest of today and tonight, with the center
paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico. The system will begin
to move more north-northwestward then northward as it rounds the
western periphery of the ridge towards Baja California Sur tomorrow
into Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous and
remains in good agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus and
Google DeepMind solutions.

Raymond continues to be impacted by moderate to strong easterly
vertical wind shear. Given the shear, the system has struggled to
become better organized or develop an inner core. The shear is
expected to continue over Raymond, with the system entering a drier
and more stable airmass in 18-24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and is near the latest consensus
aids. Global model simulated IR satellite images shows convection
waning in about 36h, with models showing the system opening into a
trough early next week. The 60h point is showed for continuity, but
the system could dissipate earlier than forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, and along portions
of Baja California Sur on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of
additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.1N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 20.5N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 22.5N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 24.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 27.1N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 102031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
2100 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N 110.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.6N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.1N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 106.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 102031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND CONTINUES MOVING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 106.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur from Los Barriles
to Santa Fe, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of
Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico
* Las Islas Marias
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 106.5 West. Raymond is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through early Saturday, followed by a northward
turn Saturday evening into Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is expected to move parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight and then approach
southern Baja California Sur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight, followed by a
weakening trend over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Southwestern Mexico, and Islas Marias through tonight, with
these conditions expected in portions of Baja California Sur
starting Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8
or more inches are expected across Sonora and northern Chihuahua.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and the central to southern
portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential
for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S.
Sunday into early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the depression, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to spread westward
along the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and reach
southern Baja California Sur on Saturday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 101745
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
1200 PM CST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 105.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Las Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm warning may be
needed for Baja California Sur later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 105.6 West. Raymond is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a
northward turn Saturday evening into Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of the cyclone is expected to move parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico through today and then approach
southern Baja California Sur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through today, followed by a
weakening trend over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Raymond will bring heavy rain to portions
of southwestern to northwestern Mexico through Sunday. Across
coastal portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa and
the central to southern portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches with local amounts of 10 inches are expected across northern
Sinaloa, Sonora and northern Chihuahua. This rainfall will bring a
risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional
heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into
early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to spread westward
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today and reach southern Baja
California Sur on Saturday. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 104.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 104.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.6N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.4N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.2N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.6N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 105.1W.
10OCT25. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1133
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 101443
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND PARALLELING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 104.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning south of Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm warning may be
needed for Baja California Sur later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 104.9 West. Raymond is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue the next day or so, followed by a northward
turn Saturday evening into Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is expected to move parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico through today and then approach
southern Baja California Sur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through today, followed by a
weakening trend over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Raymond will bring heavy rain to portions
of southwestern to northwestern Mexico through Sunday. Across
coastal portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa and
the central to southern portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches with local amounts of 10 inches are expected across northern
Sinaloa, Sonora and northern Chihuahua. This rainfall will bring a
risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional
heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into
early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to spread westward
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today and reach southern Baja
California Sur on Saturday. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 101443
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025

Raymond continues to be a convectively asymmetric tropical storm,
due to moderate to strong easterly wind shear. A GMI microwave pass
at 1035 UTC shows that there is limited curved banding structure in
association with the deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80C
over the western side of the system. There is a fairly large range
of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from 30 to
45 kt. Given the scatterometer satellite wind derived data from last
night, the initial intensity will be held just above those estimates
at 50 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/13 kt.
A strong mid-level ridge over northern Mexico will continue to
steer the system towards the northwest over the next day or so, with
the center paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico. The system
will begin to move more north-northwestward then northward as it
rounds the western periphery of the ridge towards Baja California
Sur. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC track is near
the previous forecast, which lies near the consensus aids.

The storm will continue to be affected by moderate to strong
easterly vertical wind shear, limiting strengthening even though the
system remains over warm sea surface temperatures near 29C. The
system will begin to move into a drier more stable airmass in about
24 h, thus a slow weakening trend will begin. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, near the consensus aids.
However, there is some uncertainty as to whether the system will
still be a tropical storm as it approaches Baja California Sur.
Global simulated IR satellite shows convection waning in about 2
days, and then models have the system opening into a trough early
next week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along portions of Baja
California Sur on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of
additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 18.3N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.6N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 21.4N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.6N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 101442
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.9W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.9W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.4N 109.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.6N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 104.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 101147
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
600 AM CST FRI OCT 10 2025

...RAYMOND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 104.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD
TURN ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
THROUGH TODAY AND THEN APPROACH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER
THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM RAYMOND WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IN MICHOACA!N. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE
FROM RAYMOND WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND REACH SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 102.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 102.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.7N 105.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.5N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.2N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.3N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 103.7W.
10OCT25. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1219
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z. REFER TO POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (OCTAVE) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC). REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 100851
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
300 AM CST FRI OCT 10 2025

...RAYMOND JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 103.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE, MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TURN ON EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TODAY AND THEN APPROACH SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM RAYMOND WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
GUERRERO AND MICHOACN, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IN MICHOACN. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE
FROM RAYMOND WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND REACH SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 100852
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
300 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025

Raymond is skirting the coast of southwestern Mexico. Geostationary
proxy visible satellite imagery shows a partially-exposed
circulation with a burst of growing convection near the center.
Despite Raymond's disheveled convective appearance, the storm seems
to be maintaining a decent surface circulation. Overnight
scatterometer data showed the center of Raymond just offshore of
southwestern Mexico, with wind vectors up to 48 to 50 kt in the
northern semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 50 kt.

Strong easterly vertical wind shear and proximity to the Mexican
coastline should generally limit Raymond's potential to strengthen.
Most global and regional models plateau the intensity, and gradually
weaken the tropical storm while it moves toward a drier airmass.
The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based on the
latest intensity increase but still shows gradual weakening through
the forecast period. Raymond is still expected to become a remnant
low over the Gulf of California on Sunday and dissipate shortly
thereafter.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt along the southern
extent of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The high
pressure system should steer Raymond west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next day or so. By the weekend, a
mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the western United
States, turning the tropical storm northward and bringing it across
the Baja California Peninsula. The latest official forecast has
shifted slightly to the east, largely due to the eastward shift of
the initial position, and now lies near the Google DeepMind forecast
aid.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along portions of Baja
California Sur on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 17.4N 103.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 18.7N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.5N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 22.2N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 26.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 100851
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.4W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.4W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.7N 105.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.2N 109.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.3N 110.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.5N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 100550
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
1200 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 102.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 102.8 West. Raymond is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A turn
toward the northwest is expected this evening, followed by a
northward turn by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of the cyclone is expected to move parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico through today and then approach southern Baja
California Sur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through today, followed
by a weakening trend over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through today.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Raymond will bring heavy rain to portions
of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Across coastal portions
of Guerrero and Michoacán, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected, with local amounts of 6 inches or more in Michoacán. This
rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Moisture
from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional heavy
rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to spread westward
along the southwestern coast of Mexico today and reach southern Baja
California Sur on Saturday. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 101.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 101.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.8N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.5N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.2N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.2N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.4N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 102.8W.
10OCT25. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1284 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 1002
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z. REFER TO POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (OCTAVE) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 100242
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

...POORLY ORGANIZED RAYMOND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 102.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 102.6 West. Raymond is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday evening, followed by a
northward turn by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of the cyclone is expected to move parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico through Friday and then approach southern Baja
California Sur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Friday, followed by a
weakening trend over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area tonight through Friday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from Raymond will bring heavy rain to portions
of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Across coastal portions
of Guerrero and Michoacn, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected, with local amounts of 6 inches or more in Michoacn.
This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Oaxaca,
Colima, and Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential for
additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. early
next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the depression, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to spread
westward along the southwestern coast of Mexico through Friday and
reach southern Baja California Sur on Saturday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 100242
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

A couple of recent microwave overpasses indicate that Raymond's
cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours.
Images show fragmented curved bands surrounding the elongated (SE
to NW) surface circulation. The cyclone may be struggling a bit
due to the large deep convective complex (-82C cloud tops) located
to the northwest of the center, which could be disrupting the
cyclone's low-level flow. The subjective and objective technique
intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and a recent UW-CIMSS
SATCON analysis estimated the intensity to be 35 kt. Using a blend
of these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The statistical-dynamical Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance and the
global models indicate that Raymond will be battling stiff easterly
vertical shear during the next couple of days, which should hamper
significant development. Subsequently, only modest strengthening is
forecast through Friday. Afterward, an increasingly hostile
thermodynamic environment should result in a weakening trend through
the period. Accordingly, Raymond is expected to degenerate to a
remnant low on Sunday while emerging over the Gulf of California,
and ultimately opening up into a trough by early next week. The NHC
intensity forecast is based on a close agreement of the FSSE, HCCA,
and IVCN intensity aids.

Raymond's center has been difficult to find this evening, and the
initial motion is an estimated west-northwestward heading, or 290/13
kt. A mid-tropospheric high, anchored over northern Mexico, should
steer Raymond toward the west-northwest to northwest, while
paralleling and remaining just offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico, through Friday evening. Afterward, Raymond is forecast to
turn north-northwestward, then northward in response to an
amplifying mid-latitude trough moving over the southwestern United
States. The various consensus models and the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean were used as a basis for the official track forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday. Interests in
southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the
system.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 16.7N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 17.8N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 19.5N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.2N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 25.4N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 100242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 102.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 102.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.8N 104.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 107.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.4N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 102.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 092350
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
600 PM CST THU OCT 09 2025

...RAYMOND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 102.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TURN BY EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM RAYMOND WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IN MICHOACA!N. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE
FROM RAYMOND WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND
REACH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 101.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 101.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.3N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.9N 106.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.6N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.5N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.8N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.8N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 101.9W.
09OCT25. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1317 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 1002
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z. REFER TO POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (OCTAVE) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC). REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 16E (PRISCILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 092041
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
300 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

Satellite images and a recent partial ASCAT-C scatterometer pass
were used to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Raymond at the
intermediate advisory. Since that time, deep convection continues to
burst mainly along the western and southern side of the circulation
with cold cloud tops near -80C. Latest subjective and objective
estimates range from 30 to 43 kt. Unfortunately, there was a
scatterometer gap over the much of the system, and no recent
microwave imagery to gain a better idea of the intensity and
structure of the system. Using the the previous satellite derived
winds and the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at
40 kt.

The initial motion is estimated west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt,
although this is a little uncertain given the recent formation of
the center. A strong mid-level ridge over northern Mexico will
steer the system swiftly towards the west-northwest to northwest
over the next couple of days, with the center paralleling the
southwestern coast of Mexico. The system will begin to move more
north-northwestward then northward as it rounds the western
periphery of the ridge towards the Baja California peninsula. The
NHC track is near the previous forecast, which lies near the
consensus aids.

Strong easterly shear is expected to displace most of the convection
over the western semicircle over the next few days, although the
system will remain over very warm sea surface temperatures near
29-30C and within a preferable upper-level wind environment. Thus,
some strengthening is forecast in the short term. In about a day or
so, drier air and a more stable environment will cause the system to
start weakening as it approaches Baja California. Global model
simulated IR imagery shows the system struggling to produce
organized convection by day 3, with the system becoming
post-tropical, and ultimately dissipating by day 4.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday. Interests in
southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the
system.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 16.5N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 17.3N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.6N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 22.5N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 24.8N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 26.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 092039
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
300 PM CST THU OCT 09 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 101.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES, MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TURN BY EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WEAKENING IS
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM RAYMOND WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IN MICHOACA!N. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE
FROM RAYMOND WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND
REACH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 092038
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
2100 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 101.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 101.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 103.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 106.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 108.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.8N 111.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.8N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 101.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 091749
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
1200 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

...RAYMOND FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 101.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.0 West. Raymond is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn
toward the northwest is expected by late Friday, followed by a
northward turn by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of the storm is expected to move parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico through Friday and then be near southern Baja
California Sur Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
based on satellite derived winds with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast through Friday, but weakening is likely
over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the eastern
part of the watch area later today and could spread westward across
the remainder of the area through late Friday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands from the tropical storm will bring heavy
rain to portions of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Across
coastal portions of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacn, Colima, and
Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local
amounts of 6 inches or more in Guerrero and Michoacn. This rainfall
will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain. Moisture from the tropical storm will bring the
potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the
Southwest U.S. early next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the storm, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to spread
westward along the southwestern coast of Mexico through Friday and
reach southern Baja California Sur on Saturday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 091440
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 AM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

The large area of disturbed weather located near the southwestern
coast of Mexico (Invest 90E) has continued to gain organization.
Convective banding has become more evident in the southern and
western part of the circulation, and the latest Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB are T2.0 and T1.5, respectively. The convective
pattern does suggest that the circulation might still be a bit
elongated, but hourly observations from a cruise ship, the
Norwegian Joy (C6CX3), helped to locate the main center of
circulation, pressure minimum, and estimated winds. The
circulation and convection are now organized enough to classify the
system as a tropical depression.

The center we're now tracking is somewhat discontinuous from a
feature we were tracking yesterday farther to the east, and the
initial motion is a rough estimate of west-northwestward, or 285/12
kt. Strong mid-level ridging over northern Mexico and the
south-central U.S. is expected to steer the depression on a quick
west-northwestward to northwestward track during the next 48 hours,
with the center paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico through
late Friday. The system is then likely to round the western
periphery of the high and move toward the Baja California peninsula
in 2-3 days. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement for
this first forecast, and the NHC track is close to a blend of the
TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression is being affected by strong easterly shear which is
likely to continue for the next 24 hours. However, the system is
also over very warm waters (29-30 degrees Celsius), in an
environment of strong upper-level divergence, and moving
quickly, which should all allow for some modest strengthening
during that time. The NHC forecast is near the top end of
the guidance and close to the HCCA aid in the short term. Although
the shear is forecast to decrease some after 24 hours, the
mid-level environment is expected to become drier and more stable
while the upper-level winds become more convergent. Those changes
should induce weakening while the system is approaching the southern
Baja California peninsula. Although a remnant low point is
provided over northwestern Mexico on day 4, it is likely that the
system will dissipate before that time.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday. Interests in
southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the
system.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with the tropical depression will
impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.2N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 16.8N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 105.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.8N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 21.4N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 23.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 25.5N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 29.2N 110.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 091440
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
900 AM CST THU OCT 09 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 100.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES, MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES, MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.8
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14
MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY
LATE FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN BY EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WEAKENING IS
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY AND COULD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, MICHOACA!N, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IN GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N. THIS RAINFALL
WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND
REACH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 091439
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
1500 UTC THU OCT 09 2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 100.8W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 100.8W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 100.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 102.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 105.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.8N 107.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.4N 109.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.3N 111.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.5N 111.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 29.2N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 100.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=