Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KAREN-25 Off-shore from 10 Oct 2025 03:00 UTC to 21:00

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KAREN-25

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

10/10 20:34 WTNT41KNHC102032

10/10 20:33 WTNT21KNHC102031

10/10 20:33 WTNT31KNHC102031

10/10 14:45 WTNT41KNHC101443

10/10 14:45 WTNT21KNHC101443

10/10 14:45 WTNT31KNHC101443

10/10 08:52 WTNT41KNHC100850

10/10 08:51 WTNT21KNHC100849

10/10 08:51 WTNT31KNHC100849

10/10 02:53 WTNT41KNHC100251

10/10 02:53 WTNT31KNHC100251

10/10 02:52 WTNT21KNHC100250

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 102032
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
900 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025

Convection associated with Karen has dissipated this evening,
leaving the system a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The cyclone
will be moving over even colder waters of the North Atlantic during
the next 12 to 24 hours, and organized convection is not expected to
return. Therefore, Karen has lost its designation as a subtropical
cyclone, and this will be the last NHC advisory. The initial
intensity remains 40 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. The low should
gradually weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is expected
to open up into a trough and be absorbed by an approaching frontal
system in 24 to 36 hours.

The low is moving north-northeastward or 025 degrees at 14 kt. The
system should continue to accelerate north-northeastward ahead of
an approaching deep-layer trough through Saturday. The updated NHC
track forecast is once again similar to the previous forecast and
near the center of the guidance envelope.

This is the last NHC advisory on Karen. Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 47.5N 30.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0600Z 49.4N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 11/1800Z 53.5N 27.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 102031
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025
2100 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.5N 30.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.5N 30.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 30.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 49.4N 29.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 53.5N 27.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.5N 30.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KAREN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 102031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
900 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025

...KAREN LOSES SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.5N 30.2W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen
was located near latitude 47.5 North, longitude 30.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 16
mph (26 km/h). A faster north-northeastward motion is expected
until dissipation occurs late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast tonight and Saturday, and Karen should
degenerate into a trough of low pressure late Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Karen. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$
Forecaster Brown

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 101443
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
300 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025

There has been little change to Karen's structure or intensity
since the previous advisory. A curved band of convection is located
around the northwestern portion of the cyclone and an 1110 UTC ASCAT
pass detected peak winds of 38 kt. Therefore, the intensity will
remain 40 kt for this advisory, which is also in line with the
latest TAFB classification of ST2.5.

The storm is moving northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed
of 11 kt. Karen's should turn north-northeast and continue to
accelerate ahead of a deep layer trough during the next 12 to 24
hours. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly
clustered guidance and is essentially an update of the previous
official forecast. Karen is forecast to move over even cooler waters
during the next 12-24 hours and simulated satellite imagery from the
global models indicated that the convection is likely to wane later
today and tonight. Therefore, some weakening is indicated and the
system should become post-tropical in 12 hours, if not sooner.
Shortly thereafter, Karen is forecast to open up into a trough and
become absorbed by an approaching frontal system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 46.3N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 47.9N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 11/1200Z 51.4N 28.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 101443
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025
1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 31.2W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 31.2W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.7N 31.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 47.9N 29.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.4N 28.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 31.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101443
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
300 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025

...KAREN CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.3N 31.2W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 31.2 West. The storm is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a faster
northeastward motion is expected tonight into Saturday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast through tonight, and the system is expected to
become a post-tropical low tonight or early Saturday and open into a
trough soon thereafter.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100850
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
900 AM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025

Karen remains embedded within a large upper-level low pressure
system over the north Atlantic. Satellite images show the compact
storm is still producing some moderate convection around its center,
primarily over the eastern part of the circulation. Based on the
ST2.5/35-40 kt classification from TAFB and earlier scatterometer
data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The storm is moving northeastward (045/8 kt), and it is expected to
accelerate northeastward during the next 12-24 h within the flow
ahead of an advancing deep-layer trough from the west. The updated
NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one. Despite
being located over sub-20 deg C SSTs, very cold air aloft may
continue to provide enough instability for Karen to maintain some
organized convection today. However, environmental and oceanic
conditions will become increasingly hostile going forward, and the
GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the system devoid of
convection by early Saturday. Shortly thereafter, Karen is forecast
to open up into a trough and become absorbed by an approaching
frontal system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 45.3N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 46.8N 30.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 49.4N 28.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100849
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N 32.1W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N 32.1W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 32.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.8N 30.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 49.4N 28.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.3N 32.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
900 AM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025

...KAREN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.3N 32.1W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 45.3 North, longitude 32.1 West. The storm is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a faster
northeastward motion is expected tonight into Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, and the system should
degenerate to a post-tropical low on Saturday and open into a trough
soon thereafter.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100251
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
300 AM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025

Over the last 12-18 hours, NHC has been monitoring a small area of
low pressure (AL96) embedded in a much larger upper-level trough,
located about 400 n mi to the northwest of the northernmost Azores
Islands. The system was originally a frontal low that quickly became
occluded early on 8 October. Since that time, the low has been
gradually shedding its remaining frontal features as shallow to
moderate convection formed near the center. Earlier today, there was
a Sentinel-1A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass that indicated the
system no longer was attached to frontal boundaries and had a
contracted radius of maximum wind of 20 n mi. Since that time, the
convective cloud tops have cooled to -50 to -55 C around the center,
with a distinct warm spot seen near the center. A recent WSFM
microwave pass also indicated a nearly closed cyan ring on the
37-GHz channel. 00 UTC subjective satellite classifications on the
system were a ST1.5/25-30 kt from TAFB, and a T3.0/45 kt from SAB. A
blend of all of these various data points indicate that the system
has made the transition to Subtropical Storm Karen. The initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, in agreement with a recently received
scatterometer pass which had a peak wind of 38 kt. This also matches
the special 02 UTC fix of ST 2.5/35-40 kt received from TAFB.

The subtropical storm is moving slowly northeastward, estimated at
050/8 kt. Karen is already well established in the mid-latitude
westerlies for being at such a high latitude, and is likely to be
caught up by another mid-latitude trough that is digging in from the
west. The track guidance in in pretty good agreement on a
northeastward motion with a gradual acceleration over the next 24-36
hours, and the NHC track forecast is roughly in the middle of the
guidance envelope, close to the simple and corrected consensus
aids.

While Karen has made the transition to a subtropical storm, it still
remains fully embedded in a large upper-level low, so large in fact
that it has helped the shear over the system remain fairly low and
has enabled the convection to coalesce near the center. Very cold
upper-level temperatures also appear to be contributing to the
convective vigor, allowing cloud tops of -50 C to persist near the
center. However, even colder sea-surface temperatures lie ahead of
Karen's path, and it seems like the system only has about a day or
so before it is quickly overtaken by the next mid-latitude trough.
The global models show the small cyclone opening up into a trough by
48 h, and it is also possible the system could become post-tropical
before then if it loses its current organized convection. This
intensity forecast is in general agreement with the mean of the
intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 44.5N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 45.6N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 47.8N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 50.6N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100251
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
300 AM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025

...SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS FAR UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 33.0W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 33.0 West. The storm is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion with
some gradual acceleration is forecast over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
and the system should open up into a trough by this weekend.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100250
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 33.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 33.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 33.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.6N 31.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 47.8N 29.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 50.6N 28.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 33.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

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