Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LORENZO-25 Off-shore from 13 Oct 2025 09:00 UTC to 15 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENZO-25

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

15/10 20:34 WTNT42KNHC152032

15/10 20:33 WTNT22KNHC152031

15/10 20:33 WTNT32KNHC152031

15/10 14:43 WTNT42KNHC151439

15/10 14:43 WTNT22KNHC151437

15/10 14:43 WTNT32KNHC151437

15/10 08:37 WTNT42KNHC150835

15/10 08:37 WTNT32KNHC150835

15/10 08:36 WTNT22KNHC150834

15/10 02:33 WTNT42KNHC150231

15/10 02:32 WTNT22KNHC150230

15/10 02:32 WTNT32KNHC150230

14/10 20:36 WTNT42KNHC142034

14/10 20:36 WTNT32KNHC142034

14/10 20:35 WTNT22KNHC142033

14/10 16:18 WTNT80EGRR141617

14/10 16:18 WTNT82EGRR141617

14/10 14:37 WTNT42KNHC141435

14/10 14:35 WTNT32KNHC141434

14/10 14:34 WTNT22KNHC141433

14/10 08:53 WTNT42KNHC140851

14/10 08:51 WTNT32KNHC140850

14/10 08:51 WTNT22KNHC140849

14/10 04:02 WTNT80EGRR140401

14/10 04:02 WTNT82EGRR140401

14/10 02:50 WTNT42KNHC140248

14/10 02:48 WTNT22KNHC140246

14/10 02:48 WTNT32KNHC140246

13/10 20:37 WTNT42KNHC132035

13/10 20:37 WTNT32KNHC132035

13/10 20:36 WTNT22KNHC132034

13/10 16:04 WTNT82EGRR131603

13/10 16:03 WTNT80EGRR131602

13/10 14:55 WTNT42KNHC131453

13/10 14:53 WTNT32KNHC131451

13/10 14:52 WTNT22KNHC131450

13/10 08:59 WTNT42KNHC130857

13/10 08:57 WTNT42KNHC130855

13/10 08:52 WTNT32KNHC130850

13/10 08:51 WTNT22KNHC130849

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 152032
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Lorenzo Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 15 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows that Lorenzo no longer has a
well-defined circulation and has dissipated. Recent microwave
imagery also suggested that the system had opened to its west.
Satellite intensity estimates have decreased as well, indicating
that Lorenzo has lost its organized convection. The initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of these estimates.
The remnants of Lorenzo have turned northeastward and are moving an
estimated 16 kt. This general motion with an accelerated forward
speed is expected for the next day or so.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 23.1N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 152031
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
2100 UTC WED OCT 15 2025

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 42.5W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 42.5W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 42.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 152031
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Lorenzo Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 15 2025

...LORENZO DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 42.5W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Lorenzo were located near
latitude 23.1 North, longitude 42.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a faster forward speed for the next day
or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 151439
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 15 2025

Lorenzo continues to struggle to maintain organized, deep
convection. Unfortunately, there are no new satellite microwave or
scatterometer data available to diagnose the state of the low-level
circulation. Visible imagery suggests that the center is elongated,
but the convective remnants are still obscuring the near-surface
structure. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, consistent with
the TAFB and AiDT satellite estimates.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt. A turn
toward the northeast with an accelerated motion is expected later
today as Lorenzo becomes caught up in strong southwesterly flow.
Model guidance indicates the system will dissipate within 24 hours,
though this could much occur sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 21.5N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 23.7N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 151437
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
1500 UTC WED OCT 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 44.1W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 44.1W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.7N 42.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 44.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 151437
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 15 2025

...LORENZO LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 44.1W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 44.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected, and Lorenzo is forecast to
dissipate later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150835
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Wed Oct 15 2025

While convection associated with Lorenzo has increased during the
last few hours, satellite imagery suggests the circulation is
becoming elongated north-south as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. Satellite intensity estimates are
generally in the 30-40 kt range, and the initial intensity will be
held at 35 kt.

Lorenzo has turned northward with the initial motion now 010/11 kt.
A turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected
later today as the system encounters stronger southwesterly flow,
and this general motion should continue until the system
dissipates. The new forecast track is a little to the southeast of
the previous track and lies close to the various consensus models.

The dynamical guidance continues to indicate that Lorenzo will
degenerate to a trough due to shear and dry air intrusion, with
most of the models showing this happening during the next 24 h. The
new intensity forecast moves up the time of dissipation to between
24-36 h, and Lorenzo could dissipate earlier than that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 20.5N 45.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 22.9N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 25.7N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150835
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Wed Oct 15 2025

...LORENZO STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 45.1W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2280 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 45.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast and a faster forward speed are expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast and Lorenzo is forecast to
dissipate by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150834
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
0900 UTC WED OCT 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 45.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 45.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 45.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.9N 43.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.7N 40.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 45.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150231
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

Lorenzo continues to struggle this evening, with convective
organization. However, satellite images depict that there has been
a recent burst of convection near the center of the system, although
these bursts have been intermittent throughout the day. Subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt.
Given the convection has only just recently returned over the
center, the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt for this
advisory.

The storm is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of
345/10 kt. A turn to the north is expected overnight as the system
rounds the western edge of a subtropical ridge, followed by an
accelerated northeastward motion throughout the rest of the forecast
period as the system becomes engulfed in the flow of an approaching
trough from the west. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous, just a little faster and lies between the simple and
corrected consensus aids.

The drier air and wind shear have continued to take their toll on
Lorenzo, with convection remaining disorganized. As Lorenzo begins
to accelerate the system is anticipated to struggle to produce
organized convection and maintain a closed circulation, eventually
opening into a trough. The latest NHC intensity forecast moved up
dissipation to 48 h, although most global models show Lorenzo
opening into a trough and dissipating even sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 21.3N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 24.0N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 26.9N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150230
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
0300 UTC WED OCT 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 45.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 45.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 45.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.3N 44.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 42.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.9N 38.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 45.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150230
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

...LORENZO HOLDING ON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 45.6W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 45.6 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to
the north is expected overnight, followed by a northeastward motion
Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast and Lorenzo is forecast to
dissipate in a couple days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 142034
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

Lorenzo is really struggling over the tropical Atlantic. The
system is now only producing a few clusters of deep convection as
dry air continues to entrain into the circulation. Based on the
degraded satellite appearance and intensity estimates, the initial
wind speed is lowered to 35 kt.

Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A turn to the north
is expected by tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on
Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches from the west.
The faster northeastward motion will likely continue until the
system dissipates in a few days.

Dry air and moderate to strong shear should continue to affect
Lorenzo during the next several days. These conditions should
cause the system to continue to degrade, and Lorenzo is now forecast
to dissipate by day 3. In fact, most of the models show Lorenzo
opening into a trough even sooner than that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.7N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 20.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 23.0N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 25.6N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 28.3N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 29.8N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 142034
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

...LORENZO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 45.5W
ABOUT 1430 MI...2300 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 45.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to
the north is expected tonight, followed by a northeastward motion
on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Lorenzo is
forecast to dissipate within a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 142033
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 45.5W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 45.5W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 45.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.5N 45.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.0N 43.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.6N 41.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.3N 37.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.8N 33.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 45.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 141617

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2025 17.7N 44.7W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2025 19.5N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.3N 97.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.10.2025 12.3N 97.5W WEAK
00UTC 17.10.2025 12.6N 98.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2025 13.1N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.1N 64.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.10.2025 34.6N 61.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.10.2025 35.5N 56.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2025 38.0N 50.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2025 42.2N 46.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2025 43.3N 42.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2025 45.0N 37.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2025 45.7N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2025 45.2N 33.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 37.4N 71.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.10.2025 37.4N 71.9W WEAK

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141617

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141617

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2025 0 17.7N 44.7W 1010 27
0000UTC 15.10.2025 12 19.5N 45.5W 1010 24
1200UTC 15.10.2025 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.3N 97.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.10.2025 48 12.3N 97.5W 1006 28
0000UTC 17.10.2025 60 12.6N 98.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 17.10.2025 72 13.1N 97.5W 1006 23
0000UTC 18.10.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.1N 64.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2025 84 34.6N 61.7W 988 49
1200UTC 18.10.2025 96 35.5N 56.7W 990 41
0000UTC 19.10.2025 108 38.0N 50.7W 993 36
1200UTC 19.10.2025 120 42.2N 46.2W 992 32
0000UTC 20.10.2025 132 43.3N 42.1W 993 33
1200UTC 20.10.2025 144 45.0N 37.1W 996 30
0000UTC 21.10.2025 156 45.7N 34.9W 997 32
1200UTC 21.10.2025 168 45.2N 33.5W 1000 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 37.4N 71.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2025 168 37.4N 71.9W 1006 33

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141617

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 141435
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

Lorenzo remains a poorly organized storm over the tropical central
Atlantic. The system is producing a few clusters of deep
convection, one of which is currently over the low-level center. The
satellite intensity estimates have come down and now range from 30
to 39 kt. In addition, very recent ASCAT passes show peak winds of
about 35 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered
to 40 kt.

Lorenzo continues to move northwestward at 13 kt. A turn to the
north is expected later today as the storm moves into a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. On Wednesday, the storm is likely to turn
northeastward when it moves in the flow between an approaching
mid-to upper-level trough and the subtropical ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. If the storm survives, the system could turn eastward or
southeastward this weekend on the northern periphery of the ridge.
The track guidance is in fair agreement, and no big changes were
made to the previous prediction.

The storm is currently embedded in a sheared and dry environment,
and those conditions are expected to persist during the next several
days. The model guidance shows little to no strengthening. In
fact, most of the global models show Lorenzo remaining lopsided, and
then opening up into a trough within the next few days. Based on a
combination of the models and the lower initial intensity, the NHC
intensity forecast has again been nudged downward, and now shows
dissipation occurring by day 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.2N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.6N 45.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 24.7N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 27.3N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 29.4N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 29.9N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 141434
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

...LORENZO WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 44.9W
ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 44.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the north tonight.
A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 141433
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 44.9W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 44.9W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 44.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.6N 45.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N 44.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.7N 42.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.3N 39.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.4N 35.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 29.9N 32.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 44.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 140851
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

Lorenzo has the appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone, with the
estimated center exposed about 30 to 45 n mi outside the
northwestern edge of the cyclone's main convective mass. GOES-19
proxy vis imagery suggests that Lorenzo's exposed low-level center
has been moving farther away from the convection to the northwest
over the past several hours. Lorenzo is struggling, even though
SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analyses indicate that the cyclone has
reached a lower wind shear environment compared to the stronger
shear it was experiencing yesterday, since the upper low to the west
of Lorenzo has moved farther away. The latest subjective and
objective intensity estimates range from 31-45 kt. The initial
intensity will be maintained at 50 kt for this advisory based on the
earlier evening ASCAT data, but if convection doesn't develop closer
to the low-level center soon, then the winds could start to
decrease.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 13
kt. The northwest motion should continue today as Lorenzo
approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A turn to the north
is expected tonight, with a northeastward motion expected Wednesday
and Thursday as the storm moves around the northwestern periphery of
the subtropical ridge into the faster flow regime of the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly
westward through the first 60 hours, and is very near the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model during that time period.
Thereafter, the forecast is more or less similar to the previous NHC
prediction, showing a partial clockwise loop from days 3-5, as
Lorenzo (or its remnants) rotate southeastward and then
southwestward around the aforementioned subtropical high.

Yesterday, some of the global and regional models like the GFS, HWRF
and HMON, as well as some of the ECMWF and Google DeepMind ensemble
members were holding onto Lorenzo through the 5-day period, even
indicating some strengthening over the next few days. However, the
latest cycle of global and regional models all show Lorenzo either
dissipating completely or becoming a remnant low by hour 72, with
fewer ECMWF and Google Deep Mind ensemble members holding onto the
system compared to the previous few cycles. In fact, most of the
reliable model guidance shows a steady intensity for a day or so,
followed by weakening, and then dissipation in about 3 days. The
new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous
prediction, but will not bite off yet on the aforementioned model
solutions since Lorenzo is forecast to remain in relatively low
shear and warm ocean temperatures for the next few days. The NHC
intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance
suite through hour 12, and then is above all of the intensity models
from hour 24 onward. The intensity forecast is low confidence, and
it's possible that Lorenzo could dissipate sooner than forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 18.4N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 20.5N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 23.0N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 25.5N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 27.9N 37.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 29.4N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 28.5N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 25.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 140850
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

...LORENZO POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 44.1W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 44.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the north tonight.
A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 140849
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 44.1W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 44.1W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 43.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 44.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.5N 44.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.0N 43.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 27.9N 37.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.4N 34.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 28.5N 30.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.9N 32.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 44.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 140401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 42.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.10.2025 15.7N 42.7W WEAK
12UTC 14.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 9.4N 121.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2025 9.4N 121.6W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2025 9.8N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2025 10.5N 122.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2025 11.0N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2025 11.4N 124.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 39.0N 52.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.10.2025 39.1N 50.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.10.2025 40.7N 45.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2025 43.1N 39.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140401

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 140401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 42.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.10.2025 0 15.7N 42.7W 1010 35
1200UTC 14.10.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 9.4N 121.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2025 84 9.4N 121.6W 1007 19
0000UTC 18.10.2025 96 9.8N 121.9W 1006 19
1200UTC 18.10.2025 108 10.5N 122.2W 1007 17
0000UTC 19.10.2025 120 11.0N 123.0W 1008 19
1200UTC 19.10.2025 132 11.4N 124.1W 1009 20
0000UTC 20.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 39.0N 52.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2025 120 39.1N 50.9W 992 33
1200UTC 19.10.2025 132 40.7N 45.0W 994 33
0000UTC 20.10.2025 144 43.1N 39.9W 995 29
1200UTC 20.10.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140401

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 140248
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

Satellite images shows that Lorenzo is producing a small area of
deep convection near the center of the tropical storm, with the bulk
of its associated thunderstorm activity well to the east. While the
system doesn't appear that well organized on conventional satellite,
WSF-M microwave images from a few hours ago revealed that Lorenzo
has a small central core with some character. Additionally, recent
scatterometer data indicated a large area of 45-kt winds were
present. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, assuming some
undersampling based on the coarse ASCAT resolution.

Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 11 kt, and that motion should
continue overnight. A gradual turn to the north and northeast with
an increase in forward speed is anticipated late Tuesday into
Wednesday due to the storm moving around the northwestern periphery
of the subtropical ridge into a faster flow regime. The biggest
change to note to this forecast is that most of the guidance now
turn the system to the east late this week and then to the south as
the cyclone, or its remnants, get trapped within the subtropical
ridge. Little change was made to the previous forecast during the
first couple of days, then a large eastward and southward adjustment
was made at long range, resulting in a sharp equatorward hook of
Lorenzo this weekend.

The intensity forecast is quite challenging. An upper-level low
that has been shearing Lorenzo is forecast to drop to the
southwest, resulting in decreasing shear during the next couple of
days. This synoptic evolution is historically well known for
intensification given the recent formation of the small inner core
over warm waters. However, very dry air is present in the
environment, and Lorenzo should embed itself deep into a recent
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) outbreak to the north within a couple of
days. There are credible models that respond to these factors by
weakening this into a tropical depression in a few days, like the
HAFS-A/B, or a category 1/2 hurricane, like the HWRF/HMON. The new
forecast splits these extremes, ending up a bit higher than the
previous official forecast but near the HFIP Corrected Consensus
model HCCA. It should be emphasized that this is a low-confidence
prediction for all of the conditions listed above and the cyclone's
small size, making it susceptible to large upward or downward
changes in a short period of time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 16.2N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 17.4N 43.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.3N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 21.6N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 24.3N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 26.6N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 29.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 29.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 26.0N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 140246
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
0300 UTC TUE OCT 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 42.8W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 20SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 42.8W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 42.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 43.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.3N 44.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.6N 44.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.3N 41.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.6N 39.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 29.0N 28.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 26.0N 31.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 42.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 140246
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

...LORENZO GAINING STRENGTH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 42.8W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 42.8 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
is expected through Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north Tuesday
night. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 132035
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

A mid- to upper-level low to the west of Lorenzo is producing strong
west-southwesterly shear, causing the low-level center to be mostly
exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. The
initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data
and a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. The scatterometer data
is also the basis for the initial 34-kt wind radii, which shows the
tropical-storm-force winds mostly limited to the eastern half of the
storm.

Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 10 kt, and that motion should
continue for about another day. However, by late Tuesday, a turn to
the north is forecast as a weakness develops in the subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. The storm is then expected to turn
northeastward later in the week as a large-scale mid- to upper-level
trough approaches from the west. Most of the models show this
trough cutting off, causing Lorenzo to slow down and turn eastward
or southeastward over the weekend. The NHC track forecast is
generally similar to the previous one and on the right side of the
guidance envelope, in best agreement with HCCA. Regardless of the
details, Lorenzo is not expected to be near land during the next
several days.

The strong shear over Lorenzo is likely to let up during the next
few days, but the models also show some dry air entraining into the
circulation. In fact, some of the global models show Lorenzo
remaining lopsided and even opening up into a trough. The NHC
intensity forecast shows some strengthening, but this is of low
confidence as there is some possibility that Lorenzo succumbs to
the unfavorable environmental conditions. This prediction is a
little lower than the previous one, but remains near the high end
of the model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.2N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 17.8N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 20.0N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 22.6N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 25.3N 41.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 28.2N 38.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 31.4N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 30.1N 29.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 132035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

...LORENZO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 41.7W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 41.7 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected through Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north Tuesday
night. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
or so, but some gradual intensification is possible later in the
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 132034
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 41.7W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 0SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 41.7W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.8N 44.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.0N 44.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.6N 43.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.3N 41.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.2N 38.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 31.4N 31.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 30.1N 29.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 41.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 41.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2025 0 14.3N 41.0W 1010 34
0000UTC 14.10.2025 12 16.1N 43.4W 1010 31
1200UTC 14.10.2025 24 17.4N 45.2W 1010 28
0000UTC 15.10.2025 36 18.6N 45.9W 1010 26
1200UTC 15.10.2025 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.1N 58.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2025 0 31.1N 58.4W 1010 24
0000UTC 14.10.2025 12 30.3N 56.7W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.10.2025 24 28.6N 54.1W 1006 23
0000UTC 15.10.2025 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.1N 77.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2025 0 33.1N 77.8W 1006 28
0000UTC 14.10.2025 12 32.8N 75.3W 1008 28
1200UTC 14.10.2025 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.9N 57.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2025 144 14.2N 59.0W 1010 33
0000UTC 20.10.2025 156 14.6N 61.9W 1010 34
1200UTC 20.10.2025 168 15.1N 64.9W 1009 35

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131602

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 131602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 41.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2025 14.3N 41.0W WEAK
00UTC 14.10.2025 16.1N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2025 17.4N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2025 18.6N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.1N 58.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2025 31.1N 58.4W WEAK
00UTC 14.10.2025 30.3N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2025 28.6N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.9N 57.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.10.2025 14.2N 59.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.10.2025 14.6N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2025 15.1N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131602

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 131453
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

Lorenzo has maintained a large area of convection with cold cloud
tops, although the latest GOES-19 1-minute visible satellite images
suggest that the low-level center is near the southwestern edge of
this convection, which makes sense due to the strong southwesterly
wind shear over the cyclone. Overall, Lorenzo's structure hasn't
changed much over the past 6 hours. However, a timely recent ASCAT
pass shows a large area of 40-45 kt winds mainly in the northeast
quadrant, so the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt, which is
slightly above the latest objective current satellite intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 14
kt. Lorenzo is near the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
centered near the Cabo Verde Islands. Farther northwest, a mid- to
upper-level trough is acting to erode the subtropical ridge. This
trough is expected to fracture and shift to the southwest of the
system, and Lorenzo should turn northward on Tuesday between this
feature and the eroded mid-level ridge centered over the Cabo Verde
Islands. Lorenzo is forecast to recurve northeastward on Wednesday
as the cyclone comes under the influence of broad-scale mid-latitude
westerly flow. If Lorenzo is still alive by Friday, it could
approach a weakness in steering flow, with mid- to upper-level
ridging possibly centered to the north or northeast of the cyclone,
so the track forecast shows a slowdown with a turn to the east in
4-5 days. The track guidance is in good agreement through the 72
hour point, but spread increases significantly after that time. The
new NHC track forecast is slightly west of the previous NHC
prediction through hour 60, and lies close to the HFIP Corrected
Consensus (HCCA) during that time period. At Day 5, the new NHC
forecast is south of the previous prediction.

Lorenzo continues to experience about 25 kt of southwesterly wind
shear, although the shear is forecast to decrease significantly
later today, and relatively light shear is anticipated from tonight
through Thursday. Ordinarily, this would lead to strengthening
given the sufficently warm 27-28 C ocean temperatures, but at the
same time, environmental mid-level relatively humidity is also
expected to decrease substantially as the storm interacts with the
upper-level trough ahead of it. This trough could also still
produce some residual mid-level shear undercutting the outflow
layer. Most of the intensity guidance is not that enthusiastic
about Lorenzo's prospects, but there are a couple of ECMWF ensemble
members and a handful of Google DeepMind ensemble members that make
Lorenzo a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from
the previous advisory other than the slightly stronger initial
intensity, and is near the high end of the intensity guidance suite,
showing little change in strength in the short-term, and then
gradual intensification afterwards. The NHC intensity forecast is
still generally higher than the HCCA, HAFS, and the intensity
consensus. There is some possibility that the aforementioned dry
air could cause Lorenzo to dissipate before the end of the 5-day
period, as suggested by some of the global and hurricane regional
models, but the NHC forecast maintains it as a tropical storm.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.8N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.6N 42.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 17.2N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.2N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 21.4N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 23.9N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 26.7N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 31.4N 34.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 31.8N 29.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 131451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 41.2W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1845 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 41.2 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion
with a gradual slowdown is expected through tonight, followed by
a turn to the north on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through
early Tuesday, but some gradual intensification is possible by the
middle portion of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 131450
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.2W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 0SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.2W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.6N 42.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.2N 44.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.2N 44.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.4N 44.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.9N 43.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.7N 41.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.4N 34.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 31.8N 29.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 41.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 130857
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

The area of low pressure we have been monitoring over the last day
or two (AL97) has become better organized this morning. After
spending most of yesterday as an exposed low-level swirl, tonight a
large burst of deep convection with cloud top temperatures below
-80C has formed near and just east of the center. An earlier ASCAT-C
pass clipped the eastern side of the system, showing that it was
already producing tropical-storm-force winds, with a peak derived
wind of 36 kt. A pair of AMSR2 and GMI microwave passes at 04-06 UTC
near the system also showed the improved structural organization
under the cirrus. The subjective 06 UTC Dvorak fix from TAFB was
T2.5/35 kt, and the satellite presentation has only grown more
impressive since that time, with the convective cloud tops taking a
distinct comma shape pattern. Thus, advisories are being initiated
on Tropical Storm Lorenzo this morning, with an initial intensity
of 40 kt, assuming a little undersampling from the earlier
scatterometer wind data.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/15 kt, a little
slower than the center being tracked earlier, potentially due to the
large convective burst tugging at the center. This general
northwestward motion with some additional slowdown is anticipated
today as Lorenzo approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridging
produced by an upper-level trough in the path of the tropical
cyclone. This trough is expected to fracture and shift to the
southwest of the system, and Lorenzo should turn northward between
this feature and the eroded mid-level ridge centered over the Cabo
Verde Islands. Ultimately, this ridge should result in the cyclone
recurving to the northeast around it, as it comes under influence of
broad-scale mid-latitude westerly flow. The initial NHC track
forecast is in pretty good agreement with a fairly tightly clustered
track guidance envelope, and is roughly a blend of the HCCA and
Google DeepMind guidance this cycle, a little east of the overall
track envelope.

While Lorenzo's structure on satellite imagery has improved, it is
still currently experiencing about 25-30 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. However, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance suggests this shear will soon lessen to less than 10 kts in
24-48 hours. Ordinarily this would lead to strengthening given the
sufficently warm 27-28 C ocean temperatures, but at the same time,
environmental mid-level relatively humidity is also expected to dry
substantially as the storm interacts with the upper-level trough
ahead of it. This trough could also still produce some residual
mid-level shear undercutting the outflow layer. The overall guidance
is not that enthusiastic about Lorenzo's intensity prospects, but it
is worth noting there is quite a bit of spread in both the ECMWF and
Google DeepMind ensemble members, ranging from a very weak tropical
cyclone to a category 2 hurricane. The initial NHC intensity
forecast will try to split the difference, showing little change in
strength in the short-term while the shear remains high, and then
just gradual intensification afterwards. This is higher than the
majority of the hurricane-regional model guidance this cycle, but
under the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and HWRF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 14.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.0N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 18.0N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 22.4N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 25.1N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 30.9N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 130855
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

The area of low pressure we have been monitoring over the last day
or two (AL97) has become better organized this morning. After
spending most of yesterday as an exposed low-level swirl, tonight a
large burst of deep convection with cloud top temperatures below
-80C has formed near and just east of the center. An earlier ASCAT-C
pass clipped the eastern side of the system, showing that it was
already producing tropical-storm-force winds, with a peak derived
wind of 36 kt. A pair of AMSR2 and GMI microwave passes at 04-06 UTC
near the system also showed the improved structural organization
under the cirrus. The subjective 06 UTC Dvorak fix from TAFB was
T2.5/35 kt, and the satellite presentation has only grown more
impressive since that time, with the convective cloud tops taking a
distinct comma shape pattern. Thus, advisories are being initiated
on Tropical Storm Lorenzo this morning, with an initial intensity
of 40 kt, assuming a little undersampling from the earlier
scatterometer wind data.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/15 kt, a little
slower than the center being tracked earlier, potentially due to the
large convective burst tugging at the center. This general
northwestward motion with some additional slowdown is anticipated
today as Lorenzo approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridging
produced by an upper-level trough in the path of the tropical
cyclone. This trough is expected to fracture and shift to the
southwest of the system, and Lorenzo should turn northward between
this feature and the eroded mid-level ridge centered over the Cabo
Verde Islands. Ultimately, this ridge should result in the cyclone
recurving to the northeast around it, as it comes under influence of
broad-scale mid-latitude westerly flow. The initial NHC track
forecast is in pretty good agreement with a fairly tightly clustered
track guidance envelope, and is roughly a blend of the HCCA and
Google DeepMind guidance this cycle, a little east of the overall
track envelope.

While Lorenzo's structure on satellite imagery has improved, it is
still currently experiencing about 25-30 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. However, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance suggests this shear will soon lessen to less than 10 kts in
24-48 hours. Ordinarily this would lead to strengthening given the
sufficently warm 27-28 C ocean temperatures, but at the same time,
environmental mid-level relatively humidity is also expected to dry
substantially as the storm interacts with the upper-level trough
ahead of it. This trough could also still produce some residual
mid-level shear undercutting the outflow layer. The overall guidance
is not that enthusiastic about Lorenzo's intensity prospects, but it
is worth noting there is quite a bit of spread in both the ECMWF and
Google DeepMind ensemble members, ranging from a very weak tropical
cyclone to a category 2 hurricane. The initial NHC intensity
forecast will try to split the difference, showing little change in
strength in the short-term while the shear remains high, and then
just gradual intensification afterwards. This is higher than the
majority of the hurricane-regional model guidance this cycle, but
under the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and HWRF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 14.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.0N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 18.0N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 22.4N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 25.1N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 30.9N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 130850
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
500 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OUT IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 40.3W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 40.3 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion
with some gradual slowdown is expected through tonight, followed by
a turn northward on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecasted today, but some gradual
intensification is possible by the middle portion of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 130849
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
0900 UTC MON OCT 13 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 40.3W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 40.3W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.0N 41.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.0N 44.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.4N 44.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.1N 42.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 30.9N 36.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

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