Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for GRANT-26 in Cocos (Keeling) Islands from 18 Dec 2025 12:00 UTC to 03 Jan 2026 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GRANT-26

in Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

01/01 00:40 WTIO30FMEE010039

01/01 00:40 WTIO31FMEE010039

01/01 00:01 WTIO20FMEE010000

31/12 18:58 WTIO30FMEE311853

31/12 18:58 WTIO31FMEE311853

31/12 18:24 WTIO20FMEE311823CCA

31/12 18:02 WTIO20FMEE311801

31/12 14:00 WTXS32PGTW311500

31/12 13:14 WTIO30FMEE311313CCA

31/12 13:14 WTIO31FMEE311313CCA

31/12 13:13 WTIO30FMEE311239

31/12 13:13 WTIO31FMEE311239

31/12 12:46 WTIO31FMEE311211

31/12 12:11 WTIO20FMEE311207

31/12 07:45 WTIO30FMEE310706

31/12 07:45 WTIO31FMEE310706

31/12 07:08 WTIO31FMEE310646

31/12 07:08 WTIO31FMEE310626

31/12 06:46 WTIO20FMEE310645CCA

31/12 06:25 WTIO20FMEE310623

31/12 02:15 WTXS32PGTW310300

31/12 01:29 WTIO30FMEE310041

31/12 01:29 WTIO31FMEE310041

31/12 00:09 WTIO20FMEE310007

30/12 18:58 WTIO30FMEE301838

30/12 18:58 WTIO31FMEE301838

30/12 18:10 WTIO20FMEE301808

30/12 14:19 WTXS32PGTW301500

30/12 12:49 WTIO30FMEE301248

30/12 12:49 WTIO31FMEE301248

30/12 12:01 WTIO20FMEE301159

30/12 06:59 WTIO30FMEE300657

30/12 06:59 WTIO31FMEE300657

30/12 06:26 WTIO31FMEE300626

30/12 06:16 WTIO31FMEE300608

30/12 06:03 WTIO20FMEE300602

30/12 02:07 WTXS32PGTW300300

30/12 01:29 WTIO30FMEE300030

30/12 01:29 WTIO31FMEE300030

30/12 00:16 WTIO20FMEE300015

29/12 19:15 WTIO30FMEE291834

29/12 19:15 WTIO31FMEE291834

29/12 18:39 WTIO31FMEE291828

29/12 18:39 WTIO31FMEE291827

29/12 13:45 WTIO30FMEE291254

29/12 13:45 WTIO31FMEE291254

29/12 12:06 WTIO20FMEE291204

29/12 07:45 WTIO30FMEE290644

29/12 07:45 WTIO31FMEE290644

29/12 06:16 WTIO20FMEE290614

29/12 02:40 WTIO31FMEE290035

29/12 01:59 WTXS32PGTW290300

29/12 01:21 WTIO30FMEE290106

29/12 01:21 WTIO31FMEE290106

29/12 00:25 WTIO20FMEE290024

28/12 18:58 WTIO31FMEE281836

28/12 18:23 WTIO20FMEE281821

28/12 13:21 WTIO30FMEE281246

28/12 13:21 WTIO31FMEE281246

28/12 12:16 WTIO20FMEE281214

28/12 07:16 WTIO30FMEE280636

28/12 07:16 WTIO31FMEE280636

28/12 06:24 WTIO20FMEE280620

28/12 02:19 WTXS32PGTW280300

28/12 01:06 WTIO30FMEE280105

28/12 01:06 WTIO31FMEE280105

28/12 00:25 WTIO20FMEE280020

27/12 19:34 WTIO20FMEE271932CCA

27/12 19:26 WTIO30FMEE271853

27/12 19:26 WTIO31FMEE271853

27/12 18:29 WTIO20FMEE271826

27/12 14:10 WTXS32PGTW271500

27/12 12:36 WTIO30FMEE271224

27/12 12:36 WTIO31FMEE271224

27/12 12:08 WTIO20FMEE271207

27/12 07:27 WTIO30FMEE270654

27/12 07:27 WTIO31FMEE270654

27/12 06:29 WTIO20FMEE270627

27/12 02:13 WTXS32PGTW270300

27/12 00:59 WTAU06APRF270059

26/12 18:54 WTAU06APRF261853

26/12 12:56 WTAU06APRF261256

26/12 06:53 WTAU06APRF260652

26/12 00:51 WTAU06APRF260050

25/12 18:50 WTAU06APRF251849

25/12 12:55 WTAU06APRF251255

25/12 06:58 WTAU06APRF250658

25/12 02:13 WTXS32PGTW250300

25/12 00:55 WTAU06APRF250055

24/12 19:08 WTAU06APRF241908

24/12 14:05 WTXS32PGTW241500

24/12 13:02 WTAU06APRF241301

24/12 07:01 WTAU06APRF240701

24/12 02:07 WTXS32PGTW240300

24/12 00:59 WTAU06APRF240059

23/12 18:45 WTAU06APRF231844

23/12 13:40 WTXS32PGTW231500

23/12 12:57 WTAU06APRF231257

23/12 06:51 WTAU06APRF230650

23/12 00:59 WTAU06APRF230059

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 69.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85

24H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

36H: 2026/01/02 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2026/01/03 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/03 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/04 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/05 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

120H: 2026/01/06 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONFIGURATION OF A
CENTRE SUBMERGED IN THE MASS BUT SHOWING A NOTABLE EFFECT OF THE
SURROUNDING SHEAR WITH AN ESTIMATED SHIFT OF THE CENTRE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-EAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE LATEST GCOM-W AND GPM
MICROWAVE PASSES CONFIRM THIS SHIFTED LOCATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MARKED OPENING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
ACCORDING TO THESE LATEST DATA, THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS
WEST-SOUTHWEST, SHOWING A SLOWDOWN. IN THIS CONTEXT OF WEAKENING,
WHICH BEGAN NEARLY 12 HOURS AGO, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS DOWN TO 4.5,
LEAVING ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 65KT, STILL AT THE THRESHOLD OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SLOWDOWN TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DRIVEN BY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SWELLING OF THE WESTERN RIDGE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THEN, AS ITS INTENSITY DECREASES, IT IS GUIDED BY THE
SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE, LEAVING A SLIGHT
WEST-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT BEFORE TURNING MORE WARD. THE DISPERSION
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF MOVEMENT SPEED AND, ALTHOUGH SOME
MODELS MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERN COMPONENT, THE RSMC OPTED FOR
SCENARIOS WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK BETWEEN 12 AND 48 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
UNFAVOURABLE: SHEAR HAS INCREASED AND IS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND A
RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
THEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST,
CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT, WHICH MAY OR
MAY NOT ESCAPE THE EFFECT OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS MORE
CLEARLY. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC CONTINUES TO FORECAST NO
REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRANSIT IN A WELL-WEAKENED
STATE OF REMNANT LOW AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010039
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/01/2026 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 69.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85

24H: 02/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85

36H: 02/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 75

48H: 03/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 03/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 0

72H: 04/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

120H: 06/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GRANT A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION DE
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE MAIS PRESENTANT UN EFFET NOTABLE DU
CISAILLEMENT ENVIRONNANT AVEC UN DECALAGE DU CENTRE ESTIME VERS LA
BORDURE SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION. LES DERNIERES PASSES MICRO-ONDES
GCOM-W ET GPM CONFIRMENT CETTE LOCALISATION DECALEE AVEC UNE
OUVERTURE DE PLUS EN PLUS MARQUEE DANS LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES DANS LE QUADRANT EST. SUIVANT CES DERNIERS POINTS, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME RESTE ENCORE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PRESENTANT
UN RALENTISSEMENT. DANS CE CONTEXTE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENTAME DEPUIS
PRES DE 12H, L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CI EST A LA BAISSE A 4.5- LAISSANT
DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 65KT SOIT ENCORE AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, ON GARDE TOUJOURS CETTE TENDANCE DE
RALENTISSEMENT DE GRANT NOTAMMENT AU COURS DE PROCHAINES 24H SOUS
L'IMPULSION DU GONFLEMENT PLUS MARQUE DE LA DORSALE SITUEE A L'OUEST
QUI GLISSE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU SUD DU SYSTEME. ENSUITE ALORS QUE SON
INTENSITE DIMINUE, IL EST GUIDE PAR LE LEGER RETRAIT DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LAISSANT UNE LEGERE COMPOSANTE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVANT DE S'ORIENTER PLUS VERS L'OUEST. LA
DISPERSION RESTANT ENCORE NOTABLE EN TERME DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
ET BIEN QUE CERTAINS MODELES CONSERVENT UNE COMPOSANTE PLUS SUD, LE
CMRS OPTE POUR LES SCENARII AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS VERS LE
NORD-OUEST ENTRE 12 ET 48H D'ECHEANCE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVIENNENT
DEFAVORABLES : LE CISAILLEMENT S'EST RENFORCE ET DEVIENT PLUS
IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. CELA VA CONDUIRE
A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE GRANT
SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE DANS LES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES PUIS AU STADE
DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END. IL RESTE UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE ETROITEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA
RAPIDITE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME, POUVANT OU NON ECHAPPER PLUS
NETTEMENT A L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. DANS
CE CONTEXTE, LE CMRS PERSISTE SUR UNE ABSENCE DE REINTENSIFICATION,
LAISSANT LE SYSTEME TRANSITE A UN STADE BIEN AFFAIBLI DE DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 010000
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/01/2026
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 01/01/2026 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 69.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/01 AT 12 UTC:
16.1 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/02 AT 00 UTC:
15.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311853
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/5/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/31 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 69.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 85

36H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2026/01/02 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/03 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/03 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/04 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

120H: 2026/01/05 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT HAS MAINTAINED ITS PATTERN AS EMBEDDED
CENTER (CDO) WITH CLOUD SUMMITS THAT HAVE HOWEVER WARMED UP. THE RCM2
PASS AT 1352UTC ALLOWS THE CENTRE TO BE PRECISELY RELOCATED A LITTLE
MORE TOWARDS THE CENTRE OF THE CDO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 75KT
OVER 10 MINUTES. WITH THE CENTRE LOCATED MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CDO, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS THEREFORE MODIFIED WITH A T AND CI OF 5.0
AT RCM TIMES. AT 18UTC, THE LOCATION OF THE CENTRE REMAINS QUITE
DELICATE, EXCEPT FOR AN INTERPOLATION. IN THE CONTEXT OF A CURRENT
DOWNWARD TREND, WE CAN ESTIMATE A T AND CI OF 5.0, ALLOWING US TO
VALIDATE WINDS OF 75KT. GRANT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE
INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IT REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANGES WITH A SLOWDOWN AND A
SLIGHTLY MORE MARKED INCURSION TOWARDS THE NORTH-WEST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, DRIVEN BY THE MORE MARKED GROWTH OF THE RIDGE LOCATED
FURTHER WEST. THEN, AS ITS INTENSITY DECREASES, IT IS GUIDED BY THE
SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE RIDGE, LEAVING A SLIGHT
WEST-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. WITH DISPERSION STILL SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF MOVEMENT SPEED AND WITH SOME MODELS RETAINING A MORE SOUTHERN
COMPONENT, THE RSMC OPTED FOR SCENARIOS WITH A MORE NORTH-WESTERN
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 AND 48 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
UNFAVOURABLE: THE NORTHEAST SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO INTRUSIONS
OF DRY AIR AND A RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE STATUS IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST, CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT, WHICH
MAY OR MAY NOT ESCAPE THE EFFECT OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS MORE
CLEARLY. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC CONTINUES TO FORECAST NO
REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRANSIT IN A WELL-WEAKENED
STATE OF REMNANT LOW AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311853
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 31/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 69.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 85

36H: 02/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 75

48H: 02/01/2026 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 03/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 0

72H: 03/01/2026 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

120H: 05/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GRANT A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION DE
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE AVEC DES SOMMETS QUI SE SONT TOUTEFOIS
RECHAUFFES. LA PASSE RCM2 DE 1352UTC PERMET DE RELOCALISER
PRECISEMENT LE CENTRE UN PEU PLUS AU CENTRE DU CDO AVEC DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE 75KT SUR 10MINUTES. LE CENTRE SE SITUANT PLUS AU
COEUR DU CDO, L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN EST DONC MODIFIEE AVEC UN T ET CI
DE 5.0 AUX HEURES DE LA RCM. A 18UTC, LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE RESTE
ASSEZ DELICATE A PART AVEC UNE INTERPOLATION. DANS LE CONTEXTE D'UNE
TENDANCE ACTUELLE PLUTOT A LA BAISSE, ON PEUT ESTIME UN T ET CI DE
L'ORDRE DE 5.0- PERMETTANT DE VALIDER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 75KT.
GRANT A ENTAME SA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU FAIT DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT
CISAILLE EN HAUSSE. IL RESTE ENCORE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, QUELQUES MODIFICATION AVEC UN
RALENTISSEMENT ET UNE INCURSION VERS LE NORD-OUEST UN PEU PLUS MARQUE
A ECHEANCE DE 24H SOUS L'IMPULSION DU GONFLEMENT PLUS MARQUE DE LA
DORSALE SITUEE PLUS A L'OUEST. ENSUITE ALORS QUE SON INTENSITE
DIMINUE, IL EST GUIDE PAR LE LEGER RETRAIT DE LA DORSAL DE MOYENNE
TROPSHPERE, LAISSANT UNE LEGERE COMPOSANTE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA
DISPERSION RESTANT ENCORE NOTABLE EN TERME DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
ET AVEC CERTAINES MODELES QUI CONSERVENT UNE COMPOSANTE PLUS SUD, LE
CMRS OPTE POUR LES SCENARII AVEC UN TRAJECTOIRE PLUS LE NORD-OUEST
ENCORE 24 ET 48H D'ECHEANCE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVIENNENT
DEFAVORABLES: LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST S'EST RENFORCE ET DEVRAIT
DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE
DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE DANS LES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES PUIS
AU STADE DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END. IL RESTE UNE
FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE ETROITEMENT EN LIEN
AVEC LA RAPIDITE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME, POUVANT OU NON ECHAPPER
PLUS NETTEMENT A L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC.
DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE CMRS PERSISTE SUR UNE ABSENCE DE
REINTENSIFICATION, LAISSANT LE SYSTEME TRANSITE A UN STADE BIEN
AFFAIBLI DE DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE A FIN DE WEEK-END.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 311823 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/12/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 69.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 140 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/01 AT 06 UTC:
15.9 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/01 AT 18 UTC:
15.6 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 311801
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/12/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 69.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 140 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/01 AT 06 UTC:
15.9 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/01 AT 18 UTC:
15.6 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.2S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.2S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.8S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.4S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.1S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.6S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.1S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 69.2E.
31DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z AND 011500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311313 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 70.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 85

48H: 2026/01/02 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 75

60H: 2026/01/03 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 75

72H: 2026/01/03 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/04 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 110

120H: 2026/01/05 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT HAS MAINTAINED ITS PATTERN AS EMBEDDED
CENTER. THE AMSR2 SATELLITE IMAGE FROM 0928Z AND THE INFRARED IMAGES
HELPED US TO LOCATE THE CENTRE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES AT
1200Z INDICATE A NUMBER-T OF AROUND 4.5 FOR BOTH PT AND DT METHODS.
THE CONTRIBUTION OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL ANALYSES ALLOWS US TO OPT FOR
A MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 85KT, WHICH DOWNGRADES GRANT INTO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE LEVEL.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, IT IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN ON PREVIOUS
ANALYSIS TIME BUT WITHOUT MOVE TOO FAR FROM THEM. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST, GRANT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS SLOWING DOWN. FROM THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY), A WESTERLY RIDGE
WILL FORCE IT TO SLOW DOWN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHOULD STEER IT
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS. THEN, AS ITS INTENSITY DECREASES, IT SHOULD
RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CMRS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCES, WHICH REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPERSED BEYOND THURSDAY DUE
TO THE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM ENVISAGED BY CERTAIN
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVOURABLE:
THE NORTHEAST SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED AND SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL
AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND A
RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
THEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS
SHOW QUITE A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE PACE AND EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING
BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW
INTENSIFICATION FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS, A SCENARIO THAT IS
MINORITY. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SPEED
AT WHICH THE SYSTEM MOVES, WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE
MORE CLEARLY FROM THE EFFECT OF SHEARING AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC PERSISTS IN ITS VIEW THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH IN A
MUCH WEAKER STATE WITHIN 3 DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311313 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 31/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 70.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 971 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 01/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 02/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 85

48H: 02/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 75

60H: 03/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 75

72H: 03/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 110

120H: 05/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GRANT A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION DE
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. L'IMAGE SATELLITE DEFILANT AMSR2 DE 0928Z
ET LES IMAGES INFRAROUGES NOUS ONT AIDE A POSITIONNER LE CENTRE. LES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DVORAK A 1200Z INDIQUENT UN NOMBRE-T AUTOUR DE
4.5 QUE CE SOIT PAR LE PT OU LE DT. L'APPORT DES ANALYSES DES MODELES
DETERMINISTES NOUS PERMET D'OPTER POUR UN VENT MOYEN MAXIMAL A 85KT,
CE QUI FAIT PASSER GRANT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, ELLE PART UN PEU PLUS AU SUD QUE SUR LES
PRECEDENTS RESEAUX MAIS SANS TROP S'EN ELOIGNER. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE CENTREE AU SUD A SUD-EST, GRANT DEVRAIT
POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST ENCORE 24 HEURES EN
RALENTISSANT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI (JOUR DE L'AN), UN DORSALE SITUEE
PLUS A L'OUEST LUI IMPOSE UN RALENTISSEMENT PLUS IMPORTANT ET
L'OBLIGERAIT A SE DIRIGER VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. ENSUITE, ALORS QUE
SON INTENSITE DIMINUE, IL EST REPRIS PAR LE FLUX D'ALIZES ET REPREND
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE
SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA
DISPERSION RESTE SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI LIE A LA POSSIBLE
REINTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME ENVISAGEE PAR CERTAINS MODELES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVIENNENT
DEFAVORABLES: LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST S'EST REFORCE ET DEVRAIT
DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE DANS LES 24
PROCHAINES HEURES PUIS AU STADE DE DEPRESSION DEPRESSION EN FIN DE
SEMAINE. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE ASSEZ FORTE DISPERSION SUR LE
RYTHME ET L'AMPLEUR DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ICI JEUDI MAIS AUSSI SUR
UNE EVENTUELLE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE
PROCHAIN, SCENARIO QUI EST MINORITAIRE. LA DIFFERENCE DE SCENARIOS
EST ETROITEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA RAPIDITE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME,
POUVANT OU NON ECHAPPER PLUS NETTEMENT A L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET
AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE CMRS PERSISTE SUR UNE
ABSENCE DE REINTENSIFICATION, LAISSANT LE SYSTEME TRANSITE A UN STADE
BIEN AFFAIBLI A ECHEANCE DE 3 JOURS.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 70.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 85

48H: 2026/01/02 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 75

60H: 2026/01/03 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 75

72H: 2026/01/03 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/04 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 110

120H: 2026/01/05 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT HAS MAINTAINED ITS PATTERN AS EMBEDDED
CENTER. THE AMSR2 SATELLITE IMAGE FROM 0928Z AND THE INFRARED IMAGES
HELPED US TO LOCATE THE CENTRE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES AT
1200Z INDICATE A NUMBER-T OF AROUND 4.5 FOR BOTH PT AND DT METHODS.
THE CONTRIBUTION OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL ANALYSES ALLOWS US TO OPT FOR
A MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 85KT, WHICH DOWNGRADES GRANT INTO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE LEVEL.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, IT IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN ON PREVIOUS
ANALYSIS TIME BUT WITHOUT MOVE TOO FAR FROM THEM. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST, GRANT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS SLOWING DOWN. FROM THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY), A WESTERLY RIDGE
WILL FORCE IT TO SLOW DOWN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHOULD STEER IT
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS. THEN, AS ITS INTENSITY DECREASES, IT SHOULD
RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CMRS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCES, WHICH REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPERSED BEYOND THURSDAY DUE
TO THE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM ENVISAGED BY CERTAIN
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVOURABLE:
THE NORTHEAST SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED AND SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL
AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND A
RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
THEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS
SHOW QUITE A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE PACE AND EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING
BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW
INTENSIFICATION FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS, A SCENARIO THAT IS
MINORITY. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SPEED
AT WHICH THE SYSTEM MOVES, WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE
MORE CLEARLY FROM THE EFFECT OF SHEARING AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC PERSISTS IN ITS VIEW THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH IN A
MUCH WEAKER STATE WITHIN 3 DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311239
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 31/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 70.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 971 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 01/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 02/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 85

48H: 02/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 75

60H: 03/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 75

72H: 03/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 110

120H: 05/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GRANT A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION DE
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. L'IMAGE SATELLITE DEFILANT AMSR2 DE 0928Z
ET LES IMAGES INFRAROUGES NOUS ONT AIDE A POSITIONNER LE CENTRE. LES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DVORAK A 1200Z INDIQUENT UN NOMBRE-T AUTOUR DE
4.5 QUE CE SOIT PAR LE PT OU LE DT. L'APPORT DES ANALYSES DES MODELES
DETERMINISTES NOUS PERMET D'OPTER POUR UN VENT MOYEN MAXIMAL A 85KT,
CE QUI FAIT PASSER GRANT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, ELLE PART UN PEU PLUS AU SUD QUE SUR LES
PRECEDENTS RESEAUX MAIS SANS TROP S'EN ELOIGNER. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE CENTREE AU SUD A SUD-EST, GRANT DEVRAIT
POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST ENCORE 24 HEURES EN
RALENTISSANT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI (JOUR DE L'AN), UN DORSALE SITUEE
PLUS A L'OUEST LUI IMPOSE UN RALENTISSEMENT PLUS IMPORTANT ET
L'OBLIGERAIT A SE DIRIGER VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. ENSUITE, ALORS QUE
SON INTENSITE DIMINUE, IL EST REPRIS PAR LE FLUX D'ALIZES ET REPREND
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE
SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA
DISPERSION RESTE SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI LIE A LA POSSIBLE
REINTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME ENVISAGEE PAR CERTAINS MODELES.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVIENNENT
DEFAVORABLES: LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST S'EST REFORCE ET DEVRAIT
DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE DANS LES 24
PROCHAINES HEURES PUIS AU STADE DE DEPRESSION DEPRESSION EN FIN DE
SEMAINE. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE ASSEZ FORTE DISPERSION SUR LE
RYTHME ET L'AMPLEUR DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ICI JEUDI MAIS AUSSI SUR
UNE EVENTUELLE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE
PROCHAIN, SCENARIO QUI EST MINORITAIRE. LA DIFFERENCE DE SCENARIOS
EST ETROITEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA RAPIDITE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME,
POUVANT OU NON ECHAPPER PLUS NETTEMENT A L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET
AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE CMRS PERSISTE SUR UNE
ABSENCE DE REINTENSIFICATION, LAISSANT LE SYSTEME TRANSITE A UN STADE
BIEN AFFAIBLI A ECHEANCE DE 3 JOURS.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311211
WTIO41 FMEE 311210
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 31/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 70.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 971 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 01/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 02/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 85

48H: 02/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 75

60H: 03/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 75

72H: 03/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 110

120H: 05/01/2026 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 130

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 311207
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/12/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 971 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 70.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 10 NM IN THE NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE AND TO 170 NM IN THE WEST
SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/01/01 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/01 AT 12 UTC:
16.2 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310706
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 72.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 961 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85

48H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

60H: 2026/01/02 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 85

72H: 2026/01/03 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/04 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 95

120H: 2026/01/05 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT HAS MAINTAINED ITS EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN (ECP). THE METOP SATELLITE IMAGE FROM 0407Z AND INFRARED
IMAGES HAVE HELPED US TO LOCATE THE CENTRE. THE 0052Z SAR IMAGE
ESTIMATES A 10-MINUTE WIND SPEED OF 105KT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A
LITTLE TOO HIGH COMPARED TO SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, WHICH
ESTIMATE A MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND SPEED BETWEEN 70 AND 90KT. THE VALUE
CHOSEN IS THEREFORE THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE : 90KT, GIVEN THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN AT THE STAGE OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST, GRANT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS SLOWING DOWN. FROM THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY), A WESTERLY RIDGE
WILL FORCE IT TO SLOW DOWN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHOULD STEER IT
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS. THEN, AS ITS INTENSITY DECREASES, IT SHOULD
RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CMRS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCES, WHICH REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPERSED BEYOND THURSDAY DUE
TO THE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM ENVISAGED BY CERTAIN
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVOURABLE:
THE NORTHEAST SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED AND SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL
AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND A
RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
THEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS
SHOW QUITE A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE PACE AND EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING
BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW
INTENSIFICATION FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS, A SCENARIO THAT IS
MINORITY. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SPEED
AT WHICH THE SYSTEM MOVES, WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE
MORE CLEARLY FROM THE EFFECT OF SHEARING AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC PERSISTS IN ITS VIEW THAT THERE WILL
BE NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH IN A
MUCH WEAKER STATE WITHIN 3 DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310706
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 72.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 961 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85

48H: 02/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 75

60H: 02/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 85

72H: 03/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 95

120H: 05/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 165 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GRANT A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION DE
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE (CDO). L'IMAGE SATELLITE DEFILANT METOP DE
0407Z ET LES IMAGES INFRAROUGES NOUS ONT AIDE A POSITIONNER LE
CENTRE. L'IMAGE SAR DE 0052Z ESTIME UNE INTENSITE DE 105KT EN VENT 10
MINUTES. MAIS CELA PARAIT UN PEU TROP ELEVE EN COMPARAISON DES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES QUI ESTIMENT UN VENT MOYEN MAXIMAL
ENTRE 70 ET 90KT. LA VALEUR CHOISIE EST DONC LA FOURCHETTE HAUTE :
90KT COMPTE TENU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, CE QUI PERMET DE
MAINTENIR LE SYSTEME AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION. SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE CENTREE AU SUD A SUD-EST,
GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
ENCORE 24 HEURES EN RALENTISSANT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI (JOUR DE L'AN),
UN DORSALE SITUEE PLUS A L'OUEST LUI IMPOSE UN RALENTISSEMENT PLUS
IMPORTANT ET L'OBLIGERAIT A SE DIRIGER VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.
ENSUITE, ALORS QUE SON INTENSITE DIMINUE, IL EST REPRIS PAR LE FLUX
D'ALIZES ET REPREND UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA
PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA
DE JEUDI LIE A LA POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME ENVISAGEE PAR
CERTAINS MODELES.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVIENNENT
DEFAVORABLES: LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST S'EST REFORCE ET DEVRAIT
DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE DANS LES 24
PROCHAINES HEURES PUIS AU STADE DE DEPRESSION DEPRESSION EN FIN DE
SEMAINE. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE ASSEZ FORTE DISPERSION SUR LE
RYTHME ET L'AMPLEUR DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ICI JEUDI MAIS AUSSI SUR
UNE EVENTUELLE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE
PROCHAIN, SCENARIO QUI EST MINORITAIRE. LA DIFFERENCE DE SCENARIOS
EST ETROITEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA RAPIDITE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME,
POUVANT OU NON ECHAPPER PLUS NETTEMENT A L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET
AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE CMRS PERSISTE SUR UNE
ABSENCE DE REINTENSIFICATION, LAISSANT LE SYSTEME TRANSITE A UN STADE
BIEN AFFAIBLI A ECHEANCE DE 3 JOURS.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310646
WTIO41 FMEE 310646
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 72.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 961 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85

48H: 02/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 75

60H: 02/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 85

72H: 03/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 95

120H: 05/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 165 NO: 130

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310626
WTIO41 FMEE 310624
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 71.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 961 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85

48H: 02/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 75

60H: 02/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 85

72H: 03/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 95

120H: 05/01/2026 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 165 NO: 130

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 310645 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/12/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 961 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 72.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE WEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/31 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
INITIAL POSITION CHANGE=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 310623
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/12/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 961 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 71.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE WEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/31 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 73.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 73.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.7S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.3S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.3S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.9S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.5S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.3S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 72.6E.
31DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310000Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) FINAL WARNING
(WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 73.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2026/01/02 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

72H: 2026/01/03 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/04 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

120H: 2026/01/05 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONFIGURATION AS A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). THE F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2236Z
STILL SHOWS A CLEAR SIGNATURE AT ALTITUDE WITH AN EYE STILL PRESENT.
AS GRANT IS A SMALL SYSTEM, IT IS SUBJECT TO RAPID INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS IN RESPONSE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SUCH AS INCREASES
OR DECREASES IN SHEAR OR CHANGES IN INTERNAL STRUCTURE. IT IS NOW IN
AN UNFAVOURABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, BUT ITS RELATIVELY RAPID MOVEMENT
COULD LIMIT ITS ATTENUATION, AS SHOWN BY THE TEMPORARY APPEARANCE OF
AN EYE IN IR IMAGERY. MOST OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES
(ADT/AIDT/DPRINT) HAVE DECREASED ITS INTENSITY. ACCORDING TO CMRS
ESTIMATES, GRANT REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 90 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST, GRANT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS. FROM THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY), A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A SLOWDOWN IN SPEED ARE EXPECTED. THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES, WHICH REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY DISPERSED BEYOND THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBLE
REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM ENVISAGED BY CERTAIN MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVOURABLE:
THE NORTHEAST SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED AND SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL
AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND A
RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE STATUS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
THEN TO FILLING LOW STATUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW
QUITE A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE PACE AND EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING
BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW
INTENSIFICATION FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS, A SCENARIO THAT IS NOW
BEING RULED OUT. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS CLOSELY LINKED TO THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM MOVES, WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT ALLOW IT TO
ESCAPE MORE CLEARLY FROM THE EFFECT OF SHEARING AND THE INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC PERSISTS IN ITS VIEW THAT THERE
WILL BE NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH IN
A MUCH WEAKER STATE WITHIN 3 DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310041
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 31/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 73.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/12/2025 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 01/01/2026 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 01/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

48H: 02/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75

60H: 02/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 85

72H: 03/01/2026 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/01/2026 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

120H: 05/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 120 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GRANT A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION DE
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE (CDO). L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES F18 DE 2236Z
MONTRE TOUJOURS UNE SIGNATURE BIEN NETTE EN ALTITUDE AVEC UN OEIL
ENCORE PRESENT. GRANT ETANT UN SYTEME DE PETITE TAILLE, IL SUBIT DES
FLUCTUACTIONS D'INTENSITE RAPIDES EN REPONSE AUX EVOLUTIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES TELLES QUE LA HAUSSE OU LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT
OU LES MODIFICATIONS DE STRUCTURE INTERNE. IL SE TROUVE DESORMAIS
DANS UN UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE CISAILLEMENT DEFAVORABLE MAIS SA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT PLUTTOT RAPIDE POURRAIT LIMITER SON ATTENUATION COMME
MONTRE L'APPARITION TEMPORAIRE D'UN OEIL EN IMAGERIE IR. LA PLUPART
DES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DVORAK(ADT/AIDT/DPRINT) ONT DIMINUE SON
INTENSITE. SELON L'ESTIMATION DU CMRS, GRANT RESTE AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES AUTOUR DE 90
KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION. SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD A SUD-EST, GRANT
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST ENCORE 24
HEURES. A PARTIR DE JEUDI (JOUR DE L'AN), UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST A
NORD-OUEST AINSI QU'UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT SONT ENVISAGES.
LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA
DE JEUDI LIE A LA POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME ENVISAGEE PAR
CERTAINS MODELES.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVIENNENT
DEFAVORABLES: LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST S'EST REFORCER ET DEVRAIT
DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE DANS LES 36
PROCHAINES HEURES PUIS AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT EN FIN DE
SEMAINE. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE ASSEZ FORTE DISPERSION SUR LE
RYTHME ET L'AMPLEUR DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ICI JEUDI MAIS AUSSI SUR
UNE EVENTUELLE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE
PROCHAIN, SCENARIO QUI EST MAINTENANT ECARTE. LA DIFFERENCE DE
SCENARII EST ETROITEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA RAPIDITE DE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME, POUVANT OU NON ECHAPPER PLUS NETTEMENT A L'EFFET DU
CISAILLEMENT ET AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE CMRS
PERSISTE SUR UNE ABSENCE DE REINTENSIFICATION, LAISSANT LE SYSTEME
TRANSITE A UN STADE BIEN AFFAIBLI A ECHEANCE DE 3 JOURS.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 310007
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/12/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 73.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/31 AT 12 UTC:
15.6 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2026/01/01 AT 00 UTC:
16.1 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 74.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/02 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/03 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/04 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT HAS GRADUALLY LOST ITS EYE CONFIGURATION
IN FAVOUR OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CONFIGURATION. THE F16
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1358Z STILL SHOWED A CLEAR SIGNATURE AT ALTITUDE
WITH A RESIDUAL EYE. AS GRANT IS A SMALL SYSTEM, IT IS SUBJECT TO
RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN RESPONSE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
SUCH AS INCREASES OR DECREASES IN SHEAR OR CHANGES IN INTERNAL
STRUCTURE. IN THIS CONTEXT, OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES ARE VERY
FLUCTUATING. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBER HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 5.5.
GRANT REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT AROUND 100 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST, GRANT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL TOMORROW. FROM
THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY) ONWARDS, A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST TO
NORTH-WEST AND A SLOWDOWN IN SPEED ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS BEYOND THURSDAY, MAINLY IN
TERMS OF SPEED, BUT THE CONFIRMATION OF A TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
NORTHERN AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRAJECTORY GIVES A LITTLE MORE VALIDITY
TO THE RSMC FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN AT
THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE
SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
TOMORROW ONWARDS, THE NORTHEAST SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND THEN BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND A RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE
STATUS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN TO FILLING LOW STATUS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW QUITE A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE PACE AND
EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW INTENSIFICATION FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS, A
SCENARIO THAT IS NOW BEING RULED OUT. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS
CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM MOVES, WHICH MAY OR
MAY NOT ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE MORE CLEARLY FROM THE EFFECT OF SHEARING
AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC PERSISTS IN
ITS VIEW THAT THERE WILL BE NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO PASS THROUGH IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE WITHIN 3 DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301838
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 74.5 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 952 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/12/2025 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 35

36H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 75

48H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 65

60H: 02/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 0

72H: 02/01/2026 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2026 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 0

120H: 04/01/2026 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GRANT A PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDU SA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL AU PROFIT D'UNE CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE NOYE
DANS LA MASSE (CDO). L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES F16 DE 1358Z MONTRAIT ENCORE
UNE SIGNATURE BIEN NETTE EN ALTITUDE AVEC UN OEIL RESIDUEL. GRANT
ETANT UN SYTEME DE PETITE TAILLE, IL SUBIT DES FLUCTUACTIONS
D'INTENSITE RAPIDES EN REPONSE AUX EVOLUTIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
TELLES QUE LA HAUSSE OU LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT OU LES
MODIFICATIONS DE STRUCTURE INTERNE. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LES ANALYSES
DVORAK OBJECTIVES SE MONTRE TRES FLUCTUANTES. LE NOMBRE T DE DVORAK
SUBJECTIF A ETE ABAISSE A 5.5. GRANT RESTE AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ESTIMES AUTOUR DE 100 KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION. SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD A SUD-EST, GRANT
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A
DEMAIN. A PARTIR DE JEUDI (JOUR DE L'AN), UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST A
NORD-OUEST AINSI QU'UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT SONT ENVISAGES.
LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES RESTE SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI
ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT, MAIS LA CONFIRMATION
DE LA TENDANCE VERS UNE TRAJECTOIRE UN PEU PLUS VERS LE NORD ET UN
PEU PLUS LENTE VALIDE UN PEU PLUS LA PREVISION DU CMRS.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
RESTER FAVORABLES ENTRE 6 ET 12H PERMETTANT UN MAINTIEN DU SYSTEME AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, MALGRE QUELQUES LEGERES
FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLES DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME.DES
DEMAIN, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE RENFORCER
PUIS DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU
MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE DANS LES 36
PROCHAINES HEURES PUIS AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT EN FIN DE
SEMAINE. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE ASSEZ FORTE DISPERSION SUR LE
RYTHME ET L'AMPLEUR DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ICI JEUDI MAIS AUSSI SUR
UNE EVENTUELLE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE
PROCHAIN, SCENARIO QUI EST MAINTENANT ECARTE. LA DIFFERENCE DE
SCENARII EST ETROITEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA RAPIDITE DE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME, POUVANT OU NON ECHAPPER PLUS NETTEMENT A L'EFFET DU
CISAILLEMENT ET AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE CMRS
PERSISTE SUR UNE ABSENCE DE REINTENSIFICATION, LAISSANT LE SYSTEME
TRANSITE A UN STADE BIEN AFFAIBLI A ECHEANCE DE 3 JOURS.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 301808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/12/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 74.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/31 AT 06 UTC:
15.1 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/31 AT 18 UTC:
15.6 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.1S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.6S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.9S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.8S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.1S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 75.1E.
30DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 491
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z AND 311500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 75.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/31 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

60H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/02 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/03 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/04 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE GRANT'S EYE CONFIGURATION HAS REMAINED
STABLE WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AND VERY
COLD. GCOM-W DATA FROM 0844UTC SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE AT
ALTITUDE BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RING IN THE LOWER LAYERS, WHICH
MAY INDICATE A RAPID RESPONSE BY THE SYSTEM TO UNFAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES OR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE. IN
THIS CONTEXT, A CLOSE ANALYSIS BY DVORAK INDICATES AN INCREASE WITH
WIND ESTIMATES OF AROUND 105KT. THE LATEST LOCATIONS ALSO SHOW A
GRADUAL ACCELERATION IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. GRANT THEREFORE
REMAINS AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A
POTENTIALLY RAPID RESPONSE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY.

THE PHILOSOPHY OF A TRACK REMAINING FAIRLY NORTHWARD PERSISTS. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST,
GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY) ONWARDS, A TURN TOWARDS THE
WEST TO NORTH-WEST AND A SLOWDOWN IN SPEED ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS BEYOND THURSDAY, MAINLY
IN TERMS OF SPEED, BUT THE CONFIRMATION OF A TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
NORTHERN AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRAJECTORY GIVES A LITTLE MORE VALIDITY
TO THE RSMC FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN
AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE
SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE NORTHEAST SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND THEN BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND A RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE
STATUS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN TO FILLING LOW STATUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW QUITE A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE PACE
AND EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW INTENSIFICATION FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS, A
SCENARIO THAT IS NOW BEING RULED OUT. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS
CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM MOVES, WHICH MAY OR
MAY NOT ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE MORE CLEARLY FROM THE EFFECT OF SHEARING
AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC PERSISTS IN
ITS VIEW THAT THERE WILL BE NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO PASS THROUGH IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE WITHIN 3 DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301248
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 30/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.5 S / 75.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

24H: 31/12/2025 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 01/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 01/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 75

60H: 02/01/2026 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 65

72H: 02/01/2026 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2026 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 0

120H: 04/01/2026 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE GRANT
S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TOUJOURS PROCHE DU
CENTRE ET TRES FROIDE. LES DONNEES GCOM-W DE 0844UTC MONTRE UNE
SIGNATURE BIEN NETTE EN ALTITUDE MAIS UNE LEGERE FAIBLESSE DANS
L'ANNEAU EN BASSES COUCHES, POUVANT LAISSER APPARAITRE UNE REPONSE
RAPIDE DU SYSTEME A DES EVOLUTIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEFAVORABLES OU
FLUCTUATIONS DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE. DANS CE CONTEXTE, L'ANALYSE
DVORAK FINE EN OEIL PERMET DE NOTER UNE AUGMENTATION AVEC DES
ESTIMATION DE VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 105KT. LES DERNIERES LOCALISATIONS
MONTRENT AUSSI UNE ACCELERATION PROGRESSIVE DE LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. GRANT RESTE DONC AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
PRESENTANT UNE REPONSE EN TERME D'INTENSITE POTENTIELLEMENT RAPIDE.

LA PHILOSOPHIE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE RESTANT ASSEZ NORD PERSISTE. SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD A SUD-EST, GRANT
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A
MERCREDI. A PARTIR DE JEUDI (JOUR DE L'AN), UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST A
NORD-OUEST AINSI QU'UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT SONT ENVISAGES.
LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES RESTE SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI
ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT, MAIS LA CONFIRMATION
DE LA TENDANCE VERS UNE TRAJECTOIRE UN PEU PLUS VERS LE NORD ET UN
PEU PLUS LENTE VALIDE UN PEU PLUS LA PREVISION DU CMRS.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
RESTER FAVORABLES PENDANT PRES DE 12H PERMETTANT UN MAINTIEN DU
SYSTEME AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, MALGRE QUELQUES LEGERES
FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLES DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE
SE RENFORCER PUIS DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE
RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC ET A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE
CYCLONE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PUIS AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE ASSEZ FORTE DISPERSION
SUR LE RYTHME ET L'AMPLEUR DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ICI JEUDI MAIS
AUSSI SUR UNE EVENTUELLE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE PROCHAIN, SCENARIO QUI EST MAINTENANT ECARTE. LA DIFFERENCE
DE SCENARII EST ETROITEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA RAPIDITE DE DEPLACEMENT
DU SYSTEME, POUVANT OU NON ECHAPPER PLUS NETTEMENT A L'EFFET DU
CISAILLEMENT ET AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LE CMRS
PERSISTE SUR UNE ABSENCE DE REINTENSIFICATION, LAISSANT LE SYSTEME
TRANSITE A UN STADE BIEN AFFAIBLI A ECHEANCE DE 3 JOURS.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 301159
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/12/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 75.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/31 AT 00 UTC:
14.8 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/31 AT 12 UTC:
15.2 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300657
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 77.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

60H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/03 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 110 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/04 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION OF GRANT'S EYE IN INFRARED
IMAGING HAS IMPROVED, MAINLY OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS, WITH A NEW HOT
SPOT APPEARING IN THE EYE. REMAINING VERY SMALL IN SIZE (VALIDATED BY
THE LATEST RCM DATA AT 0013UTC), GRANT IS SENSITIVE TO THE SLIGHTEST
ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE. IN THE ABSENCE OF REMAINING MICROWAVE DATA,
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINS THE SOURCE OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
REMAINS GLOBALLY STATIONARY WITH A T OF ORDER OF 5.5+ EVOLVING
SLIGHTLY UPWARDS BUT A CI REMAINING AT 6.0. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 100KT, REMAINING AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY: GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGH WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. FROM THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY)
ONWARDS, A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST TO NORTH-WEST AND A SLOWDOWN IN
SPEED ARE EXPECTED, SLIGHTLY MORE MARKED THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THURSDAY,
WITH A TENDENCY TO MIGRATE TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TRACK, A TREND FOLLOWED BY THE RSMC.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS (LOW SHEAR, GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE), ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN
AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, DESPITE SOME SLIGHT
FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE NORTHEAST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY
AIR AND A RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE STATUS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND THEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE QUITE DISPERSED ABOUT THE PACE AND EXTENT OF WEAKENING
BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN A POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION
FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS CLOSELY
LINKED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT, WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT
ESCAPE THE EFFECT OF SHEAR MORE CLEARLY. FOR THE MOMENT, THE RSMC IS
OPTING FOR NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH
IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300657
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.4 S / 77.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 31/12/2025 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85

60H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 02/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2026 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 110 NO: 0

120H: 04/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE GRANT EN
IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE S'EST AMELIOREE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LES DEUX
DERNIERES HEURES PRESENTANT DE NOUVEAU UN POINT CHAUD DANS L'OEIL.
RESTANT DE TRES PETITE TAILLE (VALIDE PAR LES DERNIERES DONNEES RCM A
0013UTC), GRANT EST SENSIBLE A LA MOINDRE INFLUENCE ENVIRONNEMENTALE.
A L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES RESTANTES, L'ANALYSE DVORAK RESTE
LA SOURCE D'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE ET GLOBALEMENT RESTE STATIONNAIRE
AVEC UN T DE L'ORDRE DE 5.5+ EVOLUANT LEGEREMENT A LA HAUSSE MAIS UN
CI RESTANT A 6.0. LES VENTS MAXIMAUX SONT ESTIMES A 100KT LAISSANT
GRANT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE : GRANT
DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A
MERCREDI, PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD A
SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI (JOUR DE L'AN), UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST A
NORD-OUEST AINSI QU'UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT EST ENVISAGE, UN
PEU PLUS MARQUE PAR RAPPORT AUX RESEAUX PRECEDENTS. LA DISPERSION
ENTRE MODELES RESTE SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI, AVEC UNE TENDANCE
A MIGRER VERS UNE TRAJECTOIRE UN PEU PLUS VERS LE NORD ET UN PEU PLUS
LENTE, TENDANCE QUE SUIT LE CMRS.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
RESTER FAVORABLES PENDANT PRES DE 24H (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, BON
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE), PERMETTANT UN
MAINTIEN DU SYSTEME AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, MALGRE
QUELQUES LEGERES FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLES DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE
DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT
SE RENFORCER PUIS DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE
RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC ET A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE
CYCLONE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PUIS DE TEMPETE TROPICALE EN FIN DE
SEMAINE. LES MODELES MONTRENT UNE ASSEZ FORTE DISPERSION SUR LE
RYTHME ET L'AMPLEUR DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ICI JEUDI MAIS AUSSI SUR
UNE EVENTUELLE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE
PROCHAIN. LA DIFFERENCE DE SCENARII EST ETROITEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA
RAPIDITE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME, POUVANT OU NON ECHAPPER PLUS
NETTEMENT A L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. POUR LE MOMENT, LE CMRS OPTE
POUR UN ABSENCE DE REINTENSIFICATION, LAISSANT LE SYSTEME TRANSITE A
UN STADE BIEN AFFAIBLI.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300626
WTIO41 FMEE 300624
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.4 S / 77.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 31/12/2025 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85

60H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 02/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2026 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 110 NO: 0

120H: 04/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 85

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300608
WTIO41 FMEE 300603
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.4 S / 77.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 31/12/2025 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85

60H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 02/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2026 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 110 NO: 0

120H: 04/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 85

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 300602
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/12/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 948 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 77.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 70 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/30 AT 18 UTC:
14.6 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/31 AT 06 UTC:
15.1 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.5S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.7S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.1S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.1S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.9S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.7S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 77.7E.
30DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 551
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300000Z IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z AND 310300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 78.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/30 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2025/12/31 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/03 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/04 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT'S EYE PATTERN ON INFRARED IMAGERY HAS
DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY, WITH A MORE MESSY EYE AND WITH A CONVECTIVE
MASS WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY DISPLAYED CONCENTRIC RINGS OF COLD
CLOUDTOPS AROUND 21UTC. THIS IS PROBABLY RELATED TO INTERNAL
PROCESSES RESEMBLING A VERY SHORT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). IN
TERMS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE DT HAS DECREASED BETWEEN 5.0
AND 5.5. THE FINAL T NUMBER IS BASED ON THE MET ADJUSTED BY THE PT AT
5.5. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES (GCOM-W AT 2030Z, GPM AT 2200Z AND F18
AT 2245Z) DEPICT A STILL VERY STRONG INNER CORE, WITH NO OBVIOUS
SIGNS OF AN ERC EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT THE EYE HAS SLIGHTLY
BROADENED FOLLOWING A LIKELY RAPID RESTRUCTURING OF THE CORE. THIS
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE
LOWERED TOO MUCH, DESPITE THE DETERIORATION IN CLASSIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ADT/AIDT/SATCON ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 100-105 KT, BUT DMINT
REMAINS AT 115-120 KT (1-MIN WINDS). GRANT'S INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY LOWERED TO 105 KT (10-MIN WINDS).

GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST.
FROM THURSDAY, A WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND A SLOWDOWN OF THE
MOTION ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT WEAKENS (STEERING
FLOW MOVING TO MORE OR LESS LOWER LAYERS) AND ON THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND
THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE THIS TUESDAY (LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE), ENABLING GRANT TO REMAIN AT INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE. FROM WEDNESDAY, NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN THEN BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM'S MOTION
SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND MAKING GRANT WEAKEN
BELOW CYCLONE STATUS BY MID-WEEK AND THEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE QUITE DISPERSED ABOUT THE PACE AND
EXTENT OF WEAKENING BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW REINTENSIFICATION STARTING NEXT SUNDAY (GFS
SUGGESTS A CLEAR REINTENSIFICATION WHILE OTHER MODELS SUCH AS IFS OR
AI ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A VERY WEAK SYSTEM).

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.3 S / 78.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 31/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/12/2025 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 01/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

60H: 01/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 02/01/2026 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/01/2026 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 0

120H: 04/01/2026 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE GRANT EN
IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE S'EST UN PEU DEGRADEE AVEC UN OEIL PLUS ENCOMBRE
ET UNE MASSE CONVECTIVE LAISSANT APPARAITRE TEMPORAIREMENT VERS 21UTC
DES ANNEAUX CONCENTRIQUES DE SOMMETS FROIDS. CELA EST PROBABLEMENT
LIE A DES PROCESSUS INTERNES S'APPARENTANT A UN TRES BREF CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC). EN TERMES D'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE, LE DT S'EST ABAISSE ENTRE 5.0 ET 5.5. LE NOMBRE T FINAL
EST BASE SUR LE MET CORRIGE PAR LE PT A 5.5. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
GCOM-W A 2030Z, GPM A 2200Z ET F18 A 2245Z MONTRENT UN COEUR INTERNE
ENCORE TRES SOLIDE, SANS TRACES EVIDENTES D'ERC MIS A PART LE FAIT
QUE L'OEIL S'EST UN PEU ELARGI SUITE A UNE PROBABLE RAPIDE
RESTRUCTURATION DU COEUR. CETTE IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES INCITE A NE PAS
TROP BAISSER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME MALGRE LA DEGRADATION EN IMAGERIE
SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE. LES ESTIMATIONS ADT/AIDT/SATCON SONT EN
BAISSE VERS 100-105 KT MAIS LE DMINT RESTE A 115-120 KT (VENTS
1-MIN). L'INTENSITE EST DONC LEGEREMENT ABAISSEE A 105 KT (VENTS
10-MIN).

GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
JUSQU'A MERCREDI, PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD
A SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST A NORD-OUEST
AINSI QU'UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT EST ENVISAGE, DEPENDANT DE
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT (FLUX DIRECTEUR PLUS OU
MOINS BAS) ET DE LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST. LA
DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES RESTE SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
RESTER FAVORABLES CE MARDI (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, BON POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE), PERMETTANT UN MAINTIEN DU
SYSTEME AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI,
LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER PUIS
DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE PUIS DE TEMPETE TROPICALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES MODELES
MONTRENT UNE ASSEZ FORTE DISPERSION SUR LE RYTHME ET L'AMPLEUR DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ICI JEUDI MAIS AUSSI SUR UNE EVENTUELLE NOUVELLE
REINTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE PROCHAIN (GFS PROPOSE UNE
FRANCHE REINTENSIFICATION TANDIS QUE D'AUTRES MODELES COMME IFS OU
LES ENSEMBLISTES IA MAINTIENNENT UN SYSTEME TRES FAIBLE).

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 300015
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/12/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 948 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 78.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/30 AT 12 UTC:
14.5 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/31 AT 00 UTC:
14.8 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 79.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/02 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 110

120H: 2026/01/03 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT'S EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL DEFINED
WITH A VERY TIGHT EYE SURROUNDED BY POWERFUL CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH
BEAUTIFUL CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS YIELDS A DT OF 5.5, WHICH REMAINS OFFSET BY THE SYSTEM'S
SMALL SIZE (WIDTH OF THE -64C RING LESS THAN 30 NM ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM) AND THE EYE'S VERY SMALL DIAMETER, WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 10 NM (EYE TEMPERATURE UNDERESTIMATED IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED).
THE FINAL T-NUMBER IS BASED ON THE MET/PT, WHICH ARE CLOSER TO
ADT/AIDT ESTIMATES. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (F17 AT 1239Z AND F16
AT 1415Z) SHOW A VERY COMPACT AND INTENSE INNER CORE AND DO NOT SHOW
ANY PARTICULAR SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A 1305Z RCM-3 SAR PASS CONFIRMS
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 105-110 KT (120-125 KT 1-MIN) WITH AN EXTREMELY
SMALL RMW OF 4 TO 5 MN. THESE VARIOUS DATA LEAD US TO KEEP GRANT'S
INTENSITY AT 110 KT.

GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST.
FROM THURSDAY, A WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND A SLOWDOWN OF THE
MOTION ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT WEAKENS (STEERING
FLOW MOVING TO MORE OR LESS LOWER LAYERS) AND ON THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS RATHER SIGNIFICANT
BEYOND THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE UNTIL TUESDAY (LOW SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE), ENABLING GRANT TO REMAIN AT INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. LATER ON, NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM'S MOTION
SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND MAKING GRANT WEAKEN
BELOW CYCLONE STATUS BY MID-WEEK AND THEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291834
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.0 S / 79.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 30/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2026 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 110

120H: 03/01/2026 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 130 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE GRANT
EST RESTEE BIEN DEFINIE AVEC UN OEIL TRES COMPACT ENTOURE D'UNE
PUISSANTE CONVECTION. LE CYCLONE BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT D'UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN BEL EPANCHEMENT DE CIRRUS
VERS L'OUEST ET LE SUD. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN DT A
5.5, QUI RESTE PENALISE PAR LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME (LARGEUR DE
L'ANNEAU A SOMMETS FROIDS INFERIEURE A 30MN DU COTE EST DU SYSTEME)
ET DU TRES PETIT DIAMETRE DE L'OEIL PROCHE DE 10 MN (TEMPERATURE DE
L'OEIL SOUS-ESTIMEE DANS L'INFRAROUGE DES GEOSTATIONNAIRES). LE
NOMBRE T FINAL EST BASE SUR LE MET/PT, PLUS PROCHE DES ESTIMATIONS
ADT/AIDT. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES F17 A 1239Z ET F16 A 1415Z
MONTRENT UN COEUR INTERNE TRES COMPACT ET INTENSE ET NE MONTRENT PAS
DE SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PARTICULIERS. UNE PASSE SAR RCM-3 A 1305Z
CONFIRME DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 105-110 KT (120-125 KT 1-MIN) AVEC
UN RVM EXTREMEMENT PETIT, DE L'ORDRE DE 4 A 5 MN. CES DIFFERENTES
DONNEES PERMETTENT DE MAINTENIR L'INTENSITE DE GRANT A 110 KT.

GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
JUSQU'A MERCREDI, PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD
A SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST A NORD-OUEST
AINSI QU'UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT EST ENVISAGE, DEPENDANT DE
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT (FLUX DIRECTEUR PLUS OU
MOINS BAS) ET DE LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST. LA
DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES RESTE ASSEZ SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
RESTER FAVORABLES JUSQU'A CE MARDI (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE), PERMETTANT UN
MAINTIEN DU SYSTEME AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. PAR LA
SUITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET
DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE PUIS DE TEMPETE TROPICALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291828
WTIO41 FMEE 291819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.0 S / 79.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 30/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2026 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 110

120H: 03/01/2026 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 130 NO: 100

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291827
WTIO40 FMEE 291819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 79.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/02 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 110

120H: 2026/01/03 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 100

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291254
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 80.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/30 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/30 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/31 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/02 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 120

120H: 2026/01/03 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION IN THE EYE OF GRANT
HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH STRONGER CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ESTIMATES A T NUMBER OF 6, CONFIRMED BY
THE OBJECTIVE ADT ANALYSIS. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO MAXIMUM WINDS OF
105 KT, BUT THE DVORAK METHOD CAN SOMETIMES UNDERESTIMATE THE
INTENSITY OF COMPACT SYSTEMS. THE ESTIMATE OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS SET AT
110 KT BY THE RSMC, SUPPORTED BY MOST OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES
(AIDT/DPRINT/ADT), WHICH SHOW AN INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS NETWORK.

GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
FROM THURSDAY, A TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND A SLOWDOWN OF THE
MOTION ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT WEAKENS,
INFLUENCING THE STEERING FLOW AND ON THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SPREAD AMONG MODELS IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE UNTIL TOMORROW (LOW SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE). GRANT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY EVEN TEMPORARILY REACH THE STATUS OF
A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS
THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND
MAKING GRANT WEAKEN BELOW CYCLONE STATUS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND THEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291254
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.8 S / 80.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 946 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

24H: 30/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 31/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 01/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 01/01/2026 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2026 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 120

120H: 03/01/2026 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL DE
GRANT S'EST LEGEREMENT AMELIOREE AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA
CONVECTION PRES DU CENTRE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE PERMET
D'ESTIMER UN NOMBRE T A 6, CONFIRMEE PAR L'ANALYSE OBJECTIVE ADT.
CELA CORRESPONDRAIT A DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE 105 KT MAIS LA METHODE DE
DVORAK PEUT PARFOIS SOUS-ESTIMER L'INTENSITE DES SYSTEMES COMPACTS.
L'ESTIMATION DES VENTS MAXIMAUX PAR LE CMRS EST FIXEE A 110KT,
SOUTENUE PAR LA PLUPART DES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DVORAK(AIDT/DPRINT/A
DT) QUI MONTRENT UNE INTENSIFICATION PAR RAPPORT AU PRECEDENT RESEAU.

GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
JUSQU'A MERCREDI, PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD
A SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST A NORD-OUEST
AINSI QU'UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT EST PROBABLE. CELA DEPENDRA
DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT, INFLUANT SUR LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR ET DE LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST. LA
DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES EST EN BAISSE PAR RAPPORT A HIER MAIS
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE ASSEZ SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
RESTER FAVORABLES JUSQU'A DEMAIN (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). GRANT DEVRAIT DONC SE
MAINTENIR AU STADE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE VOIRE ATTEINDRE
TEMPORAIREMENT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE. PAR LA
SUITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET
DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE PUIS DE TEMPETE TROPICALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291204
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/12/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 946 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 80.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/30 AT 00 UTC:
14.1 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/30 AT 12 UTC:
14.2 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 81.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

120H: 2026/01/03 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION OF GRANT HAS
STRENGTHENED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 5.5 TO 6. THE
0432Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SYSTEM THAT REMAINS COMPACT IN SIZE WITH
WINDS GREATER THAN 34 KT WITHIN 80 KM OF THE CENTER. THE 0004Z RCM2
SAR IMAGE MEASURES MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 110 AND 115 KT AVERAGED OVER
10 MINUTES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (AIDT, DPRINT, DMINT) ESTIMATE MAXIMUM
WINDS AROUND 100 KT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY, THE CMRS ESTIMATES MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS AT 105 KT.

GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
FROM THURSDAY, A TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND A SLOWDOWN OF THE
MOTION ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT WEAKENS,
INFLUENCING THE STEERING FLOW AND ON THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SPREAD AMONG MODELS IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS (LOW SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE). HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO GRANT'S SMALL SIZE. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME
MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY
AIR DISRUPTIONS AND MAKING GRANT WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290644
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.7 S / 81.5 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

24H: 30/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 30/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 31/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2026 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85

120H: 03/01/2026 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL DE
GRANT S'EST RENFORCEE. LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES OSCILLENT
ENTRE 5.5 ET 6. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0432Z MONTRE UN SYSTEME QUI RESTE
COMPACT EN TAILLE AVEC DES VENTS SUPERIEURS A 34 KT A MOINS DE 80 KM
DU CENTRE. L'IMAGE SAR RCM2 DE 0004Z MESURE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ENTRE
110 ET 115 KT MOYENNES SUR 10 MIN. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES (AIDT,
DPRINT,DMINT) ESTIMENT DES VENTS MAXIMAUX AUTOUR DE 100 KT. EN TENANT
COMPTE DES DIFERENTES SOURCES D'INCERTITUDE, LA VITESSE DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX EST ESTIMEE A 105 KT PAR LE CMRS.

GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST D'ICI
MERCREDI, PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD A
SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST A NORD-OUEST AINSI
QU'UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT EST PROBABLE. CELA DEPENDRA DE
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT, INFLUANT SUR LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR ET DE LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST. LA
DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES EST EN BAISSE PAR RAPPORT A HIER MAIS
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE ASSEZ SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
RESTER FAVORABLES DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT,
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). LA PREVISION
DU PIC D'INTENSITE RESTE MALGRE TOUT INCERTAINE EN RAISON DE LA
PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. PAR LA SUITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST
DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC
LE RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE
DE CYCLONE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290614
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/12/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 81.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/29 AT 18 UTC:
14.0 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/30 AT 06 UTC:
14.1 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290035
WTIO41 FMEE 290025
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.4 S / 82.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 951 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/12/2025 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

24H: 30/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 30/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 31/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 31/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

72H: 01/01/2026 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2026 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

120H: 03/01/2026 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 82.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 82.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.9S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.2S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.4S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.7S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.0S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.7S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.2S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 82.0E.
29DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 704
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290000Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290106
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 82.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 951 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/29 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/30 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/30 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/31 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

72H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/03 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GRANT'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 5.5 TO 6.5, BUT THEY MAY UNDERESTIMATE THE
INTENSITY OF THE PHENOMENON GIVEN THE EYE'S SMALL SIZE AND MSG2
PARALLAX. 1947Z AMSR2 DATA CONFIRMS THE TIGHTNESS OF THE GRANT INNER
CORE WITH A 10MN EYE DIAMETER. INTENSITY IS SET AT 100KT BUT THIS MAY
BE AN UNDERESTIMATION.

GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
FROM THURSDAY, A TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND A SLOWDOWN OF THE
MOTION ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT WEAKENS,
INFLUENCING THE STEERING FLOW AND ON THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SPREAD AMONG MODELS IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
UNTIL TUESDAY (LOW WIND SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE). PARTICULARLY, INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER AN AREA OF VERY WARM WATERS BY MONDAY (SST NEAR
29C, HIGH TCHP VALUES), IN COMBINATION WITH GRANT'S SMALL SIZE, HAS
FAVORED ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE. HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO GRANT'S
SMALL SIZE. FROM MID-WEEK ONWARDS, THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE
SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND
MAKING GRANT WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290106
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.4 S / 82.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 951 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/12/2025 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

24H: 30/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 30/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 31/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 31/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

72H: 01/01/2026 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2026 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

120H: 03/01/2026 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL DE
GRANT S'EST AMELIOREE. LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES OSCILLENT
ENTRE 5.5 ET 6.5, MAIS ELLES POURRAIENT SOUS ESTIMER L'INTENSITE DU
PHENOMENE AU VU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DE L'OEIL ET DE LA PARALLAXE DE
MSG2. LES DONNEES AMSR2 DE 1947Z CONFIRMENT LA COMPACITE DU COEUR DE
GRANT AVEC UN OEIL D'ENVIRON 10MN DE DIAMETRE. L'INTENSITE EST FIXEE
A 100KT MAIS CELA POURRAIT ETRE UNE SOUS ESTIMATION.

GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST D'ICI
MERCREDI, PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD A
SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST A NORD-OUEST AINSI
QU'UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT EST PROBABLE. CELA DEPENDRA DE
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT, INFLUANT SUR LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR ET DE LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST. LA
DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES EST EN BAISSE PAR RAPPORT A HIER MAIS
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE ASSEZ SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT ETRE
FAVORABLES JUSQU'A MARDI (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). EN PARTICULIER,
L'AMELIORATION DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE PHASEE AVEC LE PASSAGE SUR
UNE ZONE D'EAUX CHAUDES (SST PROCHES DE 29C, FORTES VALEURS DE TCHP),
EN COMBINAISON AVEC LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, A FAVORISE UNE
INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE ET LE PASSAGE DU SYSTEME AU STADE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE. LA PREVISION DU PIC D'INTENSITE RESTE MALGRE TOUT
INCERTAINE EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DU
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
RENFORCER ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU
MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE A PARTIR DE JEUDI.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290024
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/12/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 951 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 82.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/29 AT 12 UTC:
13.8 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/30 AT 00 UTC:
14.0 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281836
WTIO41 FMEE 281823
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 83.5 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 966 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/12/2025 06 UTC: 13.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

24H: 29/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 30/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 30/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 31/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

120H: 02/01/2026 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

INFORMATION : EN COMPLEMENT DE CES PREVISIONS, LA DISCUSSION
TECHNIQUE SUR CE SYSTEME, INCLUANT DES ELEMENTS DE COMPREHENSION SUR
L'ANALYSE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE AINSI QUE DES
GUIDANCES REGIONALES SUR UNE EVENTUELLE INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE SUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS, EST A RETROUVER
AVEC LE BULLETIN WTIO31 FMEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 281821
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/12/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/12/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 83.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/29 AT 06 UTC:
13.7 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/29 AT 18 UTC:
14.0 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281246
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 84.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/29 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/29 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/12/30 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/30 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/31 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/02 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GRANT'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND SYMMETRICAL, AS WELL AS
AN EYE FEATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. POWERFUL CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE
OCCURRING AROUND THE EYEWALL, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS CLEARLY VISIBLE AT SUNSET. THE
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IS REFLECTED BY A NICE CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE 1010Z SSMIS-F18 AND 1105Z
GPM-GMI MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A COMPACT EYEWALL THAT IS STRONGER THAN
LAST NIGHT BUT REMAINS SLIGHTLY OPEN ON ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE, POSSIBLY
RELATED TO SOME REMNANT SHEAR. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS
A DT BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0 IN A EMBEDDED CENTER CONFIGURATION AND A
MET/PT AT 5.0, LEADING TO AN ESTIMATED FT AT 5.0-. INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 75 KT AT 12UTC, REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE OBJECTIVE CIMSS
GUIDANCE, WHICH PROBABLY SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATES THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSITY DUE TO GRANT'S VERY SMALL SIZE (MIDGET-LIKE CYCLONE).

GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE TRACK COULD SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST OR
NORTH-WEST, DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING, AFFECTING THE STEERING FLOW. MODEL DISPERSION HAS
DECREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE
SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
UNTIL TUESDAY (LOW WIND SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE). IN PARTICULAR, INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER AN AREA OF VERY WARM WATERS BY MONDAY (SST NEAR
29C, HIGH TCHP VALUES), IN COMBINATION WITH GRANT'S SMALL SIZE,
SHOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE. HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO GRANT'S
SMALL SIZE. FROM MID-WEEK ONWARDS, THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE
SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND
MAKING GRANT WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281246
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.0 S / 84.5 E
(TREIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/12/2025 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 29/12/2025 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 30/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 30/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 31/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 31/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/01/2026 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 02/01/2026 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GRANT A
CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER AVEC UNE CONVECTION DEVENANT PLUS ETENDUE ET
PLUS SYMETRIQUE AINSI QU'UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE.
DE PUISSANTES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SE PRODUISENT AUTOUR DU MUR DE
L'OEIL, NOTAMMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD, AVEC DES TOURS
CONVECTIVES PENETRANTES BIEN VISIBLES AU SOLEIL COUCHANT. LA BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST REFLETEE PAR UN BEL EPANCHEMENT DE CIRRUS
AU NORD ET AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS-F18
DE 1010Z ET GPM-GMI DE 1105Z MONTRENT UN MUR DE L'OEIL COMPACT ET
PLUS SOLIDE QUE LA NUIT DERNIERE MAIS GARDANT UNE PETITE FRAGILITE DU
COTE SUD-OUEST, PEUT-ETRE LIEE A UN CISAILLEMENT RESIDUEL. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNE UN DT ENTRE 4.5 ET 5.0 EN CONFIGURATION A
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE ET UN MET/PT A 5.0, DONNANT UN FT ESTIME A
5.0-. L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 75 KT A 12UTC, RESTANT UN PEU
AU-DESSUS DES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS, QUI SOUS-ESTIMENT
PROBABLEMENT UN PEU L'INTENSITE EN RAISON DE LA TRES PETITE TAILLE DE
GRANT (CYCLONE NAIN).

GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST D'ICI
MERCREDI, PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD A
SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST A NORD-OUEST EST
POSSIBLE, DEPENDANT D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS IMPORTANT,
INFLUANT SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES EST EN
BAISSE PAR RAPPORT A HIER MAIS L'INCERTITUDE RESTE ASSEZ
SIGNIFICATIVE AU-DELA DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT ETRE
FAVORABLES JUSQU'A MARDI (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, FORT POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). EN PARTICULIER,
L'AMELIORATION DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE PHASEE AVEC LE PASSAGE SUR
UNE ZONE D'EAUX CHAUDES D'ICI LUNDI (SST PROCHES DE 29C, FORTES
VALEURS DE TCHP), EN COMBINAISON AVEC LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME,
POURRAIENT FAVORISER UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE ET LE PASSAGE DU
SYSTEME AU STADE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. LA PREVISION DU PIC
D'INTENSITE RESTE MALGRE TOUT INCERTAINE EN RAISON DE LA PETITE
TAILLE DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-EST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN
LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE
DE CYCLONE A PARTIR DE JEUDI.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 281214
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/12/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/12/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 84.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/29 AT 00 UTC:
13.5 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/29 AT 12 UTC:
13.9 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 85.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/28 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/29 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL AND AN EYE FEATURE HAS
BECOME APPARENT, PARTICULARLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY FAVORED BY DECREASING WIND SHEAR. THE GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
IS ALSO REFLECTED BY A NICE CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0014Z SSMIS-F17 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE WITH THE EARLY
STAGES OF AN EYEWALL. A 2356Z SAR RCM-2 PASS MEASURED WINDS UP TO 83
KT (1-MIN), SUGGESTING THAT GRANT WAS ALREADY AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE AT 00UTC (THE 00UTC ANALYSIS IN THE BEST-TRACK WILL BE
CORRECTED AFTERHAND TO 65 KT 10-MIN). A 0312Z ASCAT-C PASS SEEMS TO
INDICATE WEAKER WINDS, BUT THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT UNDERESTIMATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN RAISED TO 4.5, REFLECTING THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE CONFIGURATION IN VISIBLE IMAGES AND IMPROVEMENTS
IN STRUCTURE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 70 KT AT 06UTC, BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE 00Z ESTIMATED
INTENSITY AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE CONTINUED STRUCTURAL
IMPROVEMENT ON THE LATEST IMAGES.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
ITS SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW
AMONG THE MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF GRANT AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE
STEERING FLOW MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DECREASING NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
ENABLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE) SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. IN PARTICULAR, INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM'S TRACKING OVER AN AREA OF VERY
WARM WATERS (SST NEAR 29C, HIGH TCHP VALUES) BY MONDAY, IN
COMBINATION WITH GRANT'S SMALL SIZE, SHOULD FAVOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY MONDAY. THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH, DUE TO GRANT'S SMALL SIZE. IN THE
LONGER TERM, THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT
SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND MAKING GRANT WEAKEN
BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280636
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/5/20252026
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.7 S / 85.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/12/2025 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

24H: 29/12/2025 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 29/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 30/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 30/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 31/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 0

120H: 02/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GRANT A
CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER AVEC UNE CONVECTION DEVENANT PLUS SYMETRIQUE
ET L'APPARITION D'UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL, SURTOUT EVIDENTE EN IMAGERIE
SATELLITE VISIBLE. CELA EST CERTAINEMENT FAVORISE PAR LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT. LA BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST REFLETEE PAR UN BEL
EPANCHEMENT DE CIRRUS AU NORD-OUEST ET SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS-F17 DE 0014Z MONTRE AUSSI UNE NETTE AMELIORATION DE
LA STRUCTURE INTERNE AVEC L'AMORCE D'UN MUR DE L'OEIL. UNE PASSE SAR
RCM-2 A 2356Z A MESURE DES VENTS A 83 KT (1-MIN) SUGGERANT QUE GRANT
ETAIT DEJA AU STADE CYCLONE A 00UTC (L'ANALYSE DE 00UTC DANS LA
BEST-TRACK SERA CORRIGEE A POSTERIORI A 65 KT 10-MIN). UNE PASSE
ASCAT-C A 0312Z SEMBLE INDIQUER DES VENTS MOINS FORTS MAIS LA TRES
PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME CONDUIT PROBABLEMENT A UNE FORTE
SOUS-ESTIMATION DES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE
EST MONTEE A 4.5, REFLETANT L'APPARITION D'UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL
EN VISIBLE ET L'AMELIORATION DE STRUCTURE PAR RAPPORT A LA NUIT
DERNIERE. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST ESTIMEE A 70 KT A 06UTC, PAR
EXTRAPOLATION DE L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 00UTC ET EN TENANT COMPTE DE
LA POURSUITE DE L'AMELIORATION DE STRUCTURE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTEE PAR UNE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD A SUD-EST. JUSQU'A MERCREDI, LA
DISPERSION RESTE TRES FAIBLE PARMI LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. AU DELA,
LA PRESENCE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST DE GRANT AINSI QU'UN POSSIBLE
CHANGEMENT DE NIVEAU DE FLUX DIRECTEUR RENDENT LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE BIEN PLUS INCERTAINE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
BAISSER JUSQU'A LUNDI, PERMETTANT LA POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION.
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT
ET DIVERGENCE) DEVRAIENT ETRE GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES AU DEVELOPPEMENT
DE GRANT JUSQU'A MARDI. EN PARTICULIER, L'AMELIORATION DE LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE PHASEE AVEC LE PASSAGE SUR UNE ZONE D'EAUX
CHAUDES (SST PROCHES DE 29C, FORTES VALEURS DE TCHP) D'ICI LUNDI, EN
COMBINAISON AVEC LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, POURRAIENT FAVORISER
UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE ET LE PASSAGE DU SYSTEME AU STADE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE D'ICI LUNDI. CETTE PREVISION RESTE MALGRE TOUT
INCERTAINE, EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. A PLUS LONG
TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
RENFORCER ET DEVENIR PLUS IMPACTANT EN LIEN AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT DU
MOUVEMENT DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE GRANT SOUS LE STADE DE CYCLONE A PARTIR DE JEUDI.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280620
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/12/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/12/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 85.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 MN RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/28 AT 18 UTC:
13.2 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/29 AT 06 UTC:
13.6 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 86.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 86.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.8S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.4S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.8S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.1S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.7S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.2S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.1S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 86.3E.
28DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 896
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280105
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 86.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/28 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0

24H: 2025/12/29 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/12/29 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/12/30 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/30 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/31 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE GRANT HAS
EVOLVED LITTLE. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE WELL SPREAD AROUND THE
CENTER, GIVING IT THE PATTERN OF AN EMBEDDED CENTER. THIS INDICATES A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP SHEAR, ANALYSED AT 15KT BY THE CIMSS.
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES MAXIMUM WINDS AT 60KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES ARE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 50KT. DUE TO THE DECREASE IN SHEAR,
THE VALUE OF 60KT IS USED FOR THE MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND SPEED, AND
GRANT REMAINS AT THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW AMONG THE
MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
GRANT, AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING
FLOW, MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH GRANT WAS
SUFFERING FROM BEGAN TO DECREASE, ALLOWING FOR AN INTENSIFICATION.
CONDITIONS (OCEANIC POTENTIAL, SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE) SHOULD BE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT, IT SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IT COULD EVEN REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS
SHORT-TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN, LEADING TO A WEAKENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280105
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/5/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.1 S / 86.8 E
(DOUZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 40 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/12/2025 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 0

24H: 29/12/2025 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 29/12/2025 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 30/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 30/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 31/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 0

120H: 02/01/2026 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AUTOUR DE GRANT
A PEU EVOLUEE. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX LES PLUS FROIDS SONT BIEN REPARTIS
AUTOUR DU CENTRE, LUI DONNANT AINSI UN ASPECT DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA
MASSE. CELA TEMOIGNE D'UNE DIMINUTION PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND, ANALYSE A 15KT PAR LE CIMSS. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE ESTIME LES
VENTS MAX A 60KT ALORS QUE LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES SONT PLUTOT DE
L'ORDRE DE 50KT. EN RAISON DE LA BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT C'EST LA
VALEUR DE 60KT QUI EST RETENUE POUR L'INTENSITE DU VENT MOYEN MAXIMAL
ET GRANT RESTE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTEE PAR UNE FAIBLE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. JUSQU'A MERCREDI, LA
DISPERSION RESTE TRES FAIBLE PARMI LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. AU DELA,
LA PRESENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST DE GRANT, AINSI QU'UN
POSSIBLE CHANGEMENT DE NIVEAU DE FLUX DIRECTEUR, RENDENT LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN PLUS INCERTAINE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST QUE SUBISSAIT GRANT
A COMMENCE A BAISSER, PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION. LES CONDITIONS
(POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT ET DIVERGENCE) DEVRAIENT ETRE
GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES AU DEVELOPPEMENT DE GRANT JUSQU'A MARDI. EN
CONSEQUENCE, IL DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS
LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. IL POURRAIT MEME ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. CETTE PREVISION A COURTE ECHEANCE RESTE
MALGRE TOUT INCERTAINE, EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. A
PLUS LONG TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE NORD A NORD-EST DEVRAIT
A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280020
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/12/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/12/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 86.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 MN RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE WEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/28 AT 12 UTC:
12.6 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/29 AT 00 UTC:
13.3 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271932 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/12/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/12/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 87.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 MN RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 210 NM IN THE WEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/28 AT 06 UTC:
12.6 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/28 AT 18 UTC:
13.1 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271853
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 87.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/28 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

24H: 2025/12/28 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2025/12/29 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE GRANT HAS
BECOME SYMMETRICAL. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE WELL SPREAD AROUND THE
CENTER, GIVING IT THE PATTERN OF A EMBEDDED CENTER. THIS INDICATES A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP SHEAR, ANALYSED AT BETWEEN 15 AND 20KT BY
THE CIMSS. SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES MAXIMUM WINDS AT 60KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 50KT. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1606 UTC MEASURED WINDS OF 55-60KT, POSSIBLY REACHING 65KT UNDER
CONVECTION. FINALLY, THE VALUE OF 60KT IS SELECTED FOR THE MAXIMUM
AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY, AND GRANT REMAINS AT THE STAGE OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW AMONG THE
MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
GRANT, AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING
FLOW, MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH GRANT WAS
SUFFERING FROM BEGAN TO DECREASE, ALLOWING FOR AN INTENSIFICATION.
CONDITIONS (OCEANIC POTENTIAL, SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE) SHOULD BE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT, IT SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IT COULD EVEN REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS
SHORT-TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN, LEADING TO A WEAKENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271853
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/5/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.1 S / 87.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 40 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/12/2025 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0

24H: 28/12/2025 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 0

36H: 29/12/2025 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 29/12/2025 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 30/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 30/12/2025 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/12/2025 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

120H: 01/01/2026 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AUTOUR DU GRANT
S'EST SYMETRISEE. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX LES PLUS FROIDS SONT BIEN
REPARTIS AUTOUR DU CENTRE, LUI DONNANT AINSI UN ASPECT DE CENTRE NOYE
DANS LA MASSE. CELA TEMOIGNE D'UNE DIMINUTION PROGRESSIVE DU
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND, ANALYSE ENTRE 15 ET 20KT PAR LE CIMSS.
L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE ESTIME LES VENTS MAX A 60KT ALORS QUE LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES SONT PLUTOT DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT. LA PASSE ASCAT DE
1606 UTC MESURE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 55-60KT, POUVANT ATTEINDRE
65KT SOUS LA CONVECTION. FINALEMENT, C'EST LA VALEUR DE 60KT QUI EST
RETENUE POUR L'INTENSITE DU VENT MOYEN MAXIMAL ET GRANT RESTE AU
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTEE PAR UNE FAIBLE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. JUSQU'A MERCREDI, LA
DISPERSION RESTE TRES FAIBLE PARMI LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. AU DELA,
LA PRESENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST DE GRANT, AINSI QU'UN
POSSIBLE CHANGEMENT DE NIVEAU DE FLUX DIRECTEUR, RENDENT LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN PLUS INCERTAINE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST QUE SUBISSAIT GRANT
A COMMENCE A BAISSER, PERMETTANT UNE INTENSIFICATION. LES CONDITIONS
(POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT ET DIVERGENCE) DEVRAIENT ETRE
GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES AU DEVELOPPEMENT DE GRANT JUSQU'A MARDI. EN
CONSEQUENCE, IL DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS
LES PROCHAINES 24. IL POURRAIT MEME ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE. CETTE PREVISION A COURTE ECHEANCE RESTE MALGRE TOUT
INCERTAINE, EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. A PLUS LONG
TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE NORD A NORD-EST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU
SE RENFORCER CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271826
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/12/2025
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/12/2025 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 87.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING IN A RADIUS OF 150 NM AROUND THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE WEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/28 AT 06 UTC:
12.6 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/28 AT 18 UTC:
13.1 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 12.0S 88.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 88.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.4S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.9S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.4S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.8S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.5S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.3S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.6S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 87.8E. 27DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 980 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT
AT 271200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/5/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 88.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/28 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/28 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2025/12/29 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/12/29 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/30 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/30 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND GRANT HAS ONCE
AGAIN LOST SOME SYMMETRY, WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP NORTH OF THE
CENTER IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY MICROWAVE IMAGES
(NOTABLY THE 1020Z F18 SSMIS). THE EYE MENTIONED THIS MORNING IS NO
LONGER VISIBLE IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THIS SEEMS TO INDICATE THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE EAST- NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR, ANALYSED AT 20KT BY
THE CIMSS. IN VIEW OF THIS EVOLUTION AND IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW
RELIABLE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW AMONG THE
MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
GRANT, AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING
FLOW, MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH GRANT WAS
SUFFERING FROM SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR
AN INTENSIFICATION. CONDITIONS (OCEANIC POTENTIAL, SHEAR AND
DIVERGENCE) SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, IT SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT COULD EVEN REACH THE INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS SHORT-TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN,
LEADING TO A WEAKENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271224
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/5/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.1 S / 88.2 E
(DOUZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/12/2025 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

24H: 28/12/2025 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 30
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 0

36H: 29/12/2025 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 29/12/2025 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 30/12/2025 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 30/12/2025 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/12/2025 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

120H: 01/01/2026 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AUTOUR DU GRANT
A DE NOUVEAU PERDU EN SYMETRIE, AVEC LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX LES PLUS
FROIDS AU NORD DU CENTRE EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. CELA EST CONFIRME PAR
LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (NOTAMMENT LA SSMIS F18 DE 1020Z). L'OEIL
EVOQUE CE MATIN, N'EST D'AILLEURS PLUS VISIBLE SUR LES DIFFERENTES
OBSERVATIONS. CELA SEMBLE TEMOIGNER DE LA PRESENCE PERSISTANCE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST, ANALYSE A 20KT PAR LE CIMSS. AU
VU DE CETTE EVOLUTION ET EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLE DONNEE FIABLE,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 55KT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTEE PAR UNE FAIBLE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. JUSQU'A MERCREDI, LA
DISPERSION RESTE TRES FAIBLE PARMI LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. AU DELA,
LA PRESENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST DE GRANT, AINSI QU'UN
POSSIBLE CHANGEMENT DE NIVEAU DE FLUX DIRECTEUR, RENDENT LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN PLUS INCERTAINE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST QUE SUBISSAIT GRANT
DEVRAIT DIMINUER DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, PERMETTANT UNE
INTENSIFICATION. LES CONDITIONS (POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT ET
DIVERGENCE) DEVRAIENT ETRE GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES AU DEVELOPPEMENT DE
GRANT JUSQU'A MARDI. EN CONSEQUENCE, IL DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES 48H. IL POURRAIT MEME ATTEINDRE
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. CETTE PREVISION A COURTE
ECHEANCE RESTE MALGRE TOUT INCERTAINE, EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE
DU SYSTEME. A PLUS LONG TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE NORD A
NORD-EST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER CONDUISANT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271207
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/12/2025
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/12/2025 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 88.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING IN A RADIUS OF 160 NM AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/28 AT 00 UTC:
12.5 S / 86.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/28 AT 12 UTC:
13.0 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 15 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 89.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/27 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2025/12/28 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/12/28 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/12/29 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND GRANT HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN MORE SYMMETRICALLY AROUND THE CENTER. ON THE
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES, THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE ARE SOMETIMES
VISIBLE. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (WSFM 2353Z, F16 0017Z, METOP01
0250Z, AND AWS 0351Z) SEEM TO CONFIRM THE FORMATION OF AN EYE IN THE
89GHZ CHANNEL. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST BOM ANALYSES AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES (3.5/4.0), THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
ANALYSED AT 55KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW AMONG THE
MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
GRANT, AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING
FLOW, MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH GRANT WAS
SUFFERING FROM SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR
AN INTENSIFICATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, IT SHOULD REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN, LEADING TO A WEAKENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270654
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/5/20252026
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/12/2025 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.9 S / 89.3 E
(ONZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/12/2025 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 28/12/2025 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

36H: 28/12/2025 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 29/12/2025 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 29/12/2025 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 30/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/12/2025 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 01/01/2026 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AUTOUR DU GRANT
A CONTINUE DE SE RENFORCER DE MANIERE PLUS SYMETRIQUE AUTOUR DU
CENTRE. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES, UNE AMORCE D'OEIL SEMBLE
PARFOIS VISIBLE. LES DERNIERS IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (WSFM 2353Z, F16
0017Z, METOP01 0250Z ET AWS 0351Z) SEMBLENT CONFIRMER LA CONSTRUCTION
D'UN OEIL EN CANAL 89GHZ. EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DU
BOM ET AVEC LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES (3.5/4.0), L'INTENSITE
EST DONC ANALYSEE A 55KT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, GRANT DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTEE PAR UNE FAIBLE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. JUSQU'A MERCREDI, LA
DISPERSION RESTE TRES FAIBLE PARMI LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES. AU DELA,
LA PRESENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST DE GRANT, AINSI QU'UN
POSSIBLE CHANGEMENT DE NIVEAU DE FLUX DIRECTEUR, RENDENT LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN PLUS INCERTAINE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST QUE SUBISSAIT GRANT
DEVRAIT DIMINUER DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, PERMETTANT UNE
INTENSIFICATION. LES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT ETRE GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES
AU DEVELOPPEMENT DE GRANT JUSQU'A MARDI. EN CONSEQUENCE, IL DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES 48H. LA
PREVISION A COURTE ECHEANCE RESTE MALGRE TOUT INCERTAINE, EN RAISON
DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. A PLUS LONG TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND DE NORD A NORD-EST DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU SE RENFORCER CONDUISANT
A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

AUCUN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF N'EST ATTENDU POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 270627
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/12/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/12/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 89.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING IN A RADIUS OF 150 NM FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/27 AT 18 UTC:
12.2 S / 87.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/28 AT 06 UTC:
12.7 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 90.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 90.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.0S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.4S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.0S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.4S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.0S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.6S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.7S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 89.7E.
27DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400
NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270000Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 270059
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S090E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0059 UTC 27 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT SOUTH (11.8S)
LONGITUDE NINETY DECIMAL ONE EAST (90.1E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 8 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 50 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
1200 UTC 27
DECEMBER.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS
AND MODERATE
SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1200 UTC 27 DECEMBER: WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 SOUTH 88.4
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 HPA.
WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
AT 0000 UTC 28 DECEMBER: WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.3 SOUTH 86.6
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 HPA.
WINDS TO 60 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 261853
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S091E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 1853 UTC 26 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 1800 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT SOUTH (11.8S)
LONGITUDE NINETY DECIMAL EIGHT EAST (90.8E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 9 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 55 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 55 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
1200 UTC 27
DECEMBER.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS
AND MODERATE
SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 0600 UTC 27 DECEMBER: WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 SOUTH 89.1
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA.
WINDS TO 55 KNOTS
AT 1800 UTC 27 DECEMBER: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.2 SOUTH 87.4
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HPA.
WINDS TO 60 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0100 UTC 27 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 261256
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S092E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 1256 UTC 26 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 1200 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE SOUTH (11.9S)
LONGITUDE NINETY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT EAST (91.8E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 8 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 50 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS
AND MODERATE
SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 0000 UTC 27 DECEMBER: WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 SOUTH 90.2
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS
AT 1200 UTC 27 DECEMBER: WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.1 SOUTH 88.5
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 HPA.
WINDS TO 55 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 UTC 26 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 260652
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S093E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0652 UTC 26 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0600 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT SOUTH (11.8S)
LONGITUDE NINETY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT EAST (92.8E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST NORTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 50 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS
AND MODERATE
SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1800 UTC 26 DECEMBER: WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.9 SOUTH 91.5
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS
AT 0600 UTC 27 DECEMBER: WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 SOUTH 89.8
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA.
WINDS TO 55 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 UTC 26 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 260050
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S094E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0050 UTC 26 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE SOUTH (11.9S)
LONGITUDE NINETY THREE DECIMAL FIVE EAST (93.5E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 7 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 50 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS
AND MODERATE
SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1200 UTC 26 DECEMBER: WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.9 SOUTH 92.1
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS
AT 0000 UTC 27 DECEMBER: WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 SOUTH 90.5
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 UTC 26 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 251849
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S094E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 1849 UTC 25 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 1800 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE TWELVE DECIMAL THREE SOUTH (12.3S)
LONGITUDE NINETY FOUR DECIMAL THREE EAST (94.3E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 7 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 45 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 45 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
0600 UTC 26
DECEMBER.

FROM 0600 UTC 26 DECEMBER WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 0600 UTC 26 DECEMBER: WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 SOUTH 92.8
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS
AT 1800 UTC 26 DECEMBER: WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.7 SOUTH 91.4
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0100 UTC 26 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 251255
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S095E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 1255 UTC 25 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 1200 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE TWELVE DECIMAL ONE SOUTH (12.1S)
LONGITUDE NINETY FOUR DECIMAL NINE EAST (94.9E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 9 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 40 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
1200 UTC 26
DECEMBER.

FROM 0600 UTC 26 DECEMBER WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 0000 UTC 26 DECEMBER: WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.9 SOUTH 93.5
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HPA.
WINDS TO 45 KNOTS
AT 1200 UTC 26 DECEMBER: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.6 SOUTH 92.0
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 UTC 25 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 250658
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S096E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0658 UTC 25 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0600 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE TWELVE DECIMAL ONE SOUTH (12.1S)
LONGITUDE NINETY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT EAST (95.8E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 40 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
0600 UTC 26
DECEMBER.

FROM 0300 UTC 26 DECEMBER WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1800 UTC 25 DECEMBER: WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.9 SOUTH 94.5
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA.
WINDS TO 40 KNOTS
AT 0600 UTC 26 DECEMBER: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.7 SOUTH 93.1
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 UTC 25 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09S SIO 251225012406
2025122500 09S GRANT 016 01 270 08 SATL SYNP 020
T000 119S 0965E 045 R034 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 119S 0953E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 117S 0940E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 116S 0926E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 118S 0912E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 125S 0876E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 136S 0836E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060
SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 145S 0795E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070
SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.9S 96.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 96.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.9S 95.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.7S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 11.6S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 11.8S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.5S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.6S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.5S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 96.2E.
25DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30
NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
250000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.//
0925121200 114S1134E 15
0925121206 117S1135E 15
0925121212 120S1135E 15
0925121218 123S1131E 15
0925121300 121S1127E 15
0925121306 119S1127E 15
0925121312 121S1129E 15
0925121318 125S1133E 15
0925121400 128S1134E 20
0925121406 128S1132E 20
0925121412 122S1133E 20
0925121418 120S1136E 20
0925121500 119S1142E 20
0925121506 125S1146E 15
0925121512 128S1139E 15
0925121518 127S1134E 15
0925121600 123S1132E 15
0925121606 115S1126E 30
0925121612 113S1133E 30
0925121618 117S1134E 30
0925121700 119S1134E 30
0925121706 121S1133E 30
0925121712 128S1128E 30
0925121718 128S1118E 30
0925121800 124S1109E 35
0925121806 122S1103E 35
0925121812 122S1098E 35
0925121818 123S1094E 35
0925121900 125S1089E 35
0925121906 125S1082E 35
0925121912 123S1079E 35
0925121918 122S1076E 35
0925122000 121S1070E 40
0925122006 121S1062E 40
0925122012 124S1055E 40
0925122018 124S1050E 35
0925122100 124S1046E 45
0925122106 124S1039E 45
0925122112 122S1032E 40
0925122118 122S1027E 40
0925122200 121S1023E 40
0925122206 125S1019E 40
0925122212 129S1012E 40
0925122218 129S1005E 40
0925122300 126S1001E 45
0925122306 125S 997E 40
0925122312 125S 993E 40
0925122318 123S 988E 35
0925122400 122S 982E 35
0925122406 121S 981E 40
0925122412 119S 980E 40
0925122418 119S 973E 40
0925122500 119S 965E 45
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 250055
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S097E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0055 UTC 25 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE SOUTH (11.9S)
LONGITUDE NINETY SIX DECIMAL SIX EAST (96.6E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 7 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 40 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
0000 UTC 26
DECEMBER.

FROM 2100 UTC 25 DECEMBER WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1200 UTC 25 DECEMBER: WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 SOUTH 95.3
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HPA.
WINDS TO 40 KNOTS
AT 0000 UTC 26 DECEMBER: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.7 SOUTH 94.0
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 UTC 25 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 241908
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S097E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 1908 UTC 24 DECEMBER 2025

GALE WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 1800 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE SOUTH (11.9S)
LONGITUDE NINETY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR EAST (97.4E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 6 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 35 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY
1200 UTC 25
DECEMBER.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 0600 UTC 25 DECEMBER: WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.9 SOUTH 96.0
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HPA.
WINDS TO 40 KNOTS
AT 1800 UTC 25 DECEMBER: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.7 SOUTH 94.5
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 HPA.
WINDS TO 45 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0100 UTC 25 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 11.8S 97.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 97.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.7S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.6S 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.5S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 11.5S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.8S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 97.3E. 24DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 241301
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S098E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 1301 UTC 24 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 1200 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE SOUTH (11.9S)
LONGITUDE NINETY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE EAST (97.5E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 35 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY
0000 UTC 25
DECEMBER.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM 1200
UTC 25
DECEMBER WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 0000 UTC 25 DECEMBER: WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.9 SOUTH 96.5
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA.
WINDS TO 45 KNOTS
AT 1200 UTC 25 DECEMBER: WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.9 SOUTH 95.2
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 UTC 24 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 240701
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S098E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0701 UTC 24 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0600 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE SOUTH (11.9S)
LONGITUDE NINETY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT EAST (97.8E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 35 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
1800 UTC 24
DECEMBER.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM 1800
UTC 24
DECEMBER WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT DEVELOPING BY 1200 UTC
24
DECEMBER
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1800 UTC 24 DECEMBER: WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.7 SOUTH 97.1
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS
AT 0600 UTC 25 DECEMBER: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.9 SOUTH 96.0
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HPA.
WINDS TO 55 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 UTC 24 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 98.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 98.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.9S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.9S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 240059
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S098E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0059 UTC 24 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE TWELVE DECIMAL TWO SOUTH (12.2S)
LONGITUDE NINETY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO EAST (98.2E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 35 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
1800 UTC 24
DECEMBER.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM 1800
UTC 24
DECEMBER WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT DEVELOPING BY 0600 UTC
24
DECEMBER
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1200 UTC 24 DECEMBER: WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.1 SOUTH 97.4
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA.
WINDS TO 45 KNOTS
AT 0000 UTC 25 DECEMBER: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 SOUTH 96.3
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 UTC 24 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 231844
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S099E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 1844 UTC 23 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 1800 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE TWELVE DECIMAL THREE SOUTH (12.3S)
LONGITUDE NINETY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT EAST (98.8E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 35 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
1200 UTC 24
DECEMBER.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM 1200
UTC 24
DECEMBER WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT DEVELOPING BY 0000 UTC
24
DECEMBER
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 0600 UTC 24 DECEMBER: WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.2 SOUTH 98.0
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA.
WINDS TO 45 KNOTS
AT 1800 UTC 24 DECEMBER: WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 SOUTH 97.0
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0100 UTC 24 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.2S 99.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 99.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.8S 98.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.6S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.5S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.5S 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 11.7S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.4S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.1S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 98.9E. 23DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND
241500Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 231257
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S099E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 1257 UTC 23 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 1200 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR SOUTH (12.4S)
LONGITUDE NINETY NINE DECIMAL ZERO EAST (99.0E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 6 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 35 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
1200 UTC 24
DECEMBER.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE AFTER
0600 UTC 24
DECEMBER WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT DEVELOPING BY 0000 UTC
24
DECEMBER
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 0000 UTC 24 DECEMBER: WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.1 SOUTH 98.3
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HPA.
WINDS TO 45 KNOTS
AT 1200 UTC 24 DECEMBER: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.9 SOUTH 97.5
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 UTC 23 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 230650
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:13S100E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0650 UTC 23 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0600 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN SOUTH (12.7S)
LONGITUDE NINETY NINE DECIMAL SIX EAST (99.6E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 5 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 35 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY
0600 UTC 24
DECEMBER.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE AFTER
0000 UTC 24
DECEMBER WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1800 UTC 23 DECEMBER: WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.4 SOUTH 98.8
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HPA.
WINDS TO 45 KNOTS
AT 0600 UTC 24 DECEMBER: WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.1 SOUTH 98.0
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HPA.
WINDS TO 55 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 UTC 23 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 230059
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:13S100E999:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT 0059 UTC 23 DECEMBER 2025

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
THE
AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

SITUATION
AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF
LATITUDE TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT SOUTH (12.8S)
LONGITUDE ONE HUNDRED DECIMAL FOUR EAST (100.4E)
RECENT MOVEMENT : WEST AT 4 KNOTS
MAXIMUM WINDS : 35 KNOTS
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT.

FORECAST
MAXIMUM WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
0000 UTC 24
DECEMBER.

WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE AFTER
1800 UTC 23
DECEMBER WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL.

WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
MODERATE
SWELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS
AT 1200 UTC 23 DECEMBER: WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.6 SOUTH 99.5
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA.
WINDS TO 45 KNOTS
AT 0000 UTC 24 DECEMBER: WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.3 SOUTH 98.7
EAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HPA.
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS

REMARKS
ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.
REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EMAIL TO TCWC@BOM.GOV.AU.

NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 UTC 23 DECEMBER 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE=

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.