Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ARTHUR-26
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 171630
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
1630 UTC WED JUN 17 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 95.5W AT 17/1630Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 95.5W AT 17/1630Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 95.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 171630
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Special Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Sargent,
Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1130 AM CDT (1630 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. Arthur is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and an increase in
forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the low
pressure area should move northeastward along the Texas coast today
and then move inland over southwestern Louisiana by tonight.

Surface observations indicate maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is anticipated
once the low moves inland, and it could dissipate by tonight or
early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42035 east of Galveston recently reported
a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 999
mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Arthur can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20
inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Arthur, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
with Tropical Storm Arthur, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the
northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A couple of tornadoes are possible through Thursday from
the Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama,
and the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 171631
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Special Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

This special advisory is being issued to extend the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Upper Texas coast southward to Sargent, Texas.
Recent surface observations and NOAA buoy 42035 indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt, and the estimated minimum
pressure has fallen to 999 mb. No changes have been made to the
track or intensity forecasts. The regularly scheduled intermediate
advisory will be issued by 1800 UTC.

Previous Discussion:
The low pressure area near the Middle Texas coast has produced
sustained convection well to the east of its center this morning. A
1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective
organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone.
Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report
have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this
convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to
52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm
intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as
Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt.

Arthur is starting to accelerate northeastward (045/8 kt) within
strengthening southwesterly flow associated with a low- to mid-level
trough. There are no significant changes to the track forecast
reasoning, with a faster northeastward motion expected today that
will move the center of the system along or over the Texas coast
today and then farther inland over southeastern Texas and
southwestern Louisiana by tonight. With no major changes to the
track guidance this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is very similar
to the previous one.

Given the unrelenting westerly shear and Arthur's close proximity to
land, it seems unlikely that much additional strengthening will
occur. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the eastern
semicircle and mainly occurring over the offshore waters. Arthur
will likely maintain its intensity while it remains over water, and
then weaken by tonight once it moves inland. Global model fields
indicate it will open into a trough soon thereafter, and although a
24-h forecast point is included mainly for continuity purposes,
Arthur should dissipate before that time. There is still a signal in
the global models for low pressure development over the western
Atlantic late this week or this weekend as remnant vorticity from
Arthur emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast. The exact nature of this
low remains unclear, so we will continue to monitor model trends to
evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the
primary hazard with this system. Based on recent observations, the
Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper
Texas coast to High Island.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding
are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast.
Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the
weekend.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Upper Texas
and Louisiana coasts today from High Island to Morgan City where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1630Z 28.8N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 171627
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1127 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...

A special advisory for Tropical Storm Arthur will be issued shortly
to extend the Tropical Storm Warning southward to Sargent, Texas.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 171612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.06.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 96.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.06.2026 0 27.8N 96.6W 1003 30
0000UTC 18.06.2026 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171611


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 171611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.06.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 96.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.06.2026 27.8N 96.6W WEAK
00UTC 18.06.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171611


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 171454
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The low pressure area near the Middle Texas coast has produced
sustained convection well to the east of its center this morning. A
1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective
organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone.
Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report
have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this
convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to
52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm
intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as
Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt.

Arthur is starting to accelerate northeastward (045/8 kt) within
strengthening southwesterly flow associated with a low- to mid-level
trough. There are no significant changes to the track forecast
reasoning, with a faster northeastward motion expected today that
will move the center of the system along or over the Texas coast
today and then farther inland over southeastern Texas and
southwestern Louisiana by tonight. With no major changes to the
track guidance this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is very similar
to the previous one.

Given the unrelenting westerly shear and Arthur's close proximity to
land, it seems unlikely that much additional strengthening will
occur. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the eastern
semicircle and mainly occurring over the offshore waters. Arthur
will likely maintain its intensity while it remains over water, and
then weaken by tonight once it moves inland. Global model fields
indicate it will open into a trough soon thereafter, and although a
24-h forecast point is included mainly for continuity purposes,
Arthur should dissipate before that time. There is still a signal in
the global models for low pressure development over the western
Atlantic late this week or this weekend as remnant vorticity from
Arthur emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast. The exact nature of this
low remains unclear, so we will continue to monitor model trends to
evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the
primary hazard with this system. Based on recent observations, the
Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper
Texas coast to High Island.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding
are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast.
Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the
weekend.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Upper Texas
and Louisiana coasts today from High Island to Morgan City where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 28.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 171453
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DEVELOPS NEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 95.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to High
Island, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent, Texas to High Island, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 95.8 West. Arthur is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and an increase in
forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the low
pressure area should move northeastward along the Texas coast today
and then move inland over southwestern Louisiana by tonight.

Surface observations and data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is
expected before the center moves over land. Weakening is anticipated
once the low moves inland, and it could dissipate by tonight or
early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42035 east of Galveston recently reported
a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 43 mph (69 km/h).
The Scholes International Airport (KGLS) in Galveston recently
reported a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1001
mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Arthur can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20
inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Arthur, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
with Tropical Storm Arthur, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today. Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are possible
within the watch area today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the
northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A couple of tornadoes are possible through Thursday from
the Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama,
and the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 171452
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
1500 UTC WED JUN 17 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 95.8W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 95.8W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 95.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 171144
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 96.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
28.3 North, longitude 96.2 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is
expected today. On the forecast track, the low pressure area should
move northeastward along the Texas coast today and then move inland
over southwestern Louisiana by tonight.

Surface observations indicate the maximum sustained winds are near
30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast,
and the disturbance could become a tropical storm today. Weakening
is anticipated once the low moves inland, and it could dissipate by
tonight or early Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1002
mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near
20 inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area and expected within the warning area later today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A couple of tornadoes are possible through Thursday from
the Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama,
and the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 170835
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The center of the low pressure area is very near the Middle Texas
coast, and offshore buoy observations indicate that maximum winds
remain 25 kt. A line of deep convection has formed over the
northwestern Gulf waters since the last advisory, but due to strong
westerly shear, this activity is located more than 120 n mi to the
east/southeast of the low-level center. As a result, the latest
Dvorak classification from TAFB is Too Weak To Classify, meaning
the system does not have the convective organization necessary to
be designated as a tropical cyclone.

The current motion is northeastward, or 045/5 kt. The system is
embedded in strengthening low- to mid-level southwesterly flow, and
with another trough approaching from the northwest, it is expected
to accelerate northeastward today. The track guidance has shifted
slightly westward on this cycle, and the center of the low is
therefore likely to straddle the Texas coast for much of the day,
before moving farther inland over eastern Texas or Louisiana
tonight. The NHC official track has been nudged westward, close to
the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The prospects for this system to become a tropical cyclone may be
decreasing. With the low-level center unlikely to fully emerge
over the Gulf waters for an appreciable amount of time, and 25-30
kt of westerly shear expected to continue for the next 12 hours, it
will be difficult for the system to gain the convective
organization necessary to become a tropical cyclone before it moves
inland tonight. Even if the system doesn't become a tropical
cyclone, there could still be some strengthening of the wind field
well east of the center during the day, and the NHC official
forecast will continue to show a peak of 35 kt in 12 hours. After
that, all of the global models now show the system opening up into a
trough over Louisiana by tonight. The official forecast shows the
system as a remnant low at 24 hours, but it's entirely possible it
will have dissipated by then.

The global models show the remnant low-level vorticity continuing
eastward across the Southeast U.S. on Thursday and Friday, and the
ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET models indicate that a low pressure
system could redevelop, especially once the system moves offshore
over the western Atlantic. The exact nature of this low is unclear
at this time, but we will monitor model trends for the possibility
of tropical cyclone formation over the western Atlantic late this
week or this weekend.

Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary
hazards with this system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding
are likely through Thursday across southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast.
Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the
weekend.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana
coast today from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 28.0N 96.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/1800Z 29.1N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 18/0600Z 31.1N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 170834
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
0900 UTC WED JUN 17 2026

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 96.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 96.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 97.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 29.1N 95.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.1N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 96.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170835
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 96.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
28.0 North, longitude 96.7 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is
expected today. On the forecast track, the low pressure area
should move northeastward along the Texas coast today and then move
inland over southwestern Louisiana by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance could become a
tropical storm today. Weakening is anticipated once the low moves
inland, and it could dissipate by tonight or early Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1003
mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near
20 inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area and expected within the warning area later today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A couple of tornadoes are possible through Thursday from
the Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama,
and the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170543
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
100 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 97.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.7 North, longitude 97.2 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the disturbance should move along or roughly
parallel to the upper Texas coast today. The system is expected to
move farther inland over extreme eastern Texas or southwestern
Louisiana tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could
become a tropical storm today. Weakening is anticipated by tonight
when the system moves farther inland.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near
20 inches, through Thursday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
with this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm
summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the
following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area and expected within the warning area later today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible tonight through tonight from
the Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama,
and the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 170235
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The center of the system is beginning to emerge into the
northwestern Gulf. Surface observations do not show very strong
winds over the area at this time, and the current intensity is held
at 25 kt. This is consistent with a Dvorak classification from
TAFB. There is significant westerly vertical wind shear over the
disturbance, with most of the deep convection displaced well away
from the center of the low. Given that there has been no noticeable
increase in the deep convective organization of the disturbance, it
is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone for this
advisory.

Based on the center fixes, the initial motion estimate, 050/5 kt, is
similar to that from the previous advisory. There has been little
change in the track model guidance. The system is expected to
accelerate northeastward in the flow on the southern and
southwestern side of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern
United States. The official forecast track shows the disturbance or
storm moving just offshore of, and parallel to, the Texas coast
during the next day or so. Then the system is likely to go back
onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. No significant change
has been made to the track forecast for this advisory, and the
official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus
solution.

The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some
intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters
and upper-level divergence. However the SHIPS guidance diagnoses
fairly strong shear over the area during the next 24-36 hours which
should limit strengthening up to landfall. The NHC forecast
continues to indicate the system becoming a tropical storm tomorrow,
which is also shown in the IVCN intensity model consensus.

Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary
hazards with this system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely
through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is
possible near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is also
possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through
the end of the week. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat
into the weekend.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana
coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 27.6N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/1200Z 28.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 18/0000Z 30.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 32.1N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Adams


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 170234
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
0300 UTC WED JUN 17 2026

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 97.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 97.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 97.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 28.5N 95.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.2N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.1N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 97.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ADAMS


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170233
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...SYSTEM NEAR THE TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 97.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 27.6 North, longitude 97.1 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move farther
offshore of the Texas coast overnight, and move roughly parallel to
the upper Texas coast on Wednesday. The system is expected to move
back inland over extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become
a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on
Thursday after the system moves back over land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near
20 inches, through Thursday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
with this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm
summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the
following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday, and are expected within the warning
area beginning later on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible tonight through Wednesday
night from the Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana,
Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Adams


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 162331
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 97.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.6 North, longitude 97.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast in a few hours,
move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast on Wednesday and move
back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late
Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become
a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on
Thursday after the system moves back over land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near
20 inches, through Thursday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday, and are expected within the warning
area beginning on Wednesday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible tonight and tomorrow from the
Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 162050
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The low pressure area continues to produce disorganized deep
convection mostly over water, almost exclusively in the eastern
semicircle. However, the low-level center has become better
defined during the day according to satellite and surface data,
along with falling pressures. While the system is fairly close to
transitioning into a tropical depression, it is still a bit shy of
a well-defined center and consistent convection. Thus the system
remains a potential tropical cyclone, and the initial intensity
is 25 kt based on surface and radar data.

The low continues to slowly move northeastward. It is expected to
move offshore of south Texas tonight and accelerate northeastward
along the coast on Wednesday due to the system encountering faster
flow associated with a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
States. Model guidance is about the same as before, moving very
near the Texas coast on Wednesday before going back onshore late
Wednesday or Wednesday night. No significant changes were
made to the track forecast. The circulation is expected to
quickly dissipate over central Louisiana on Thursday.

The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some
intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters
and upper-level jet dynamics. Most of the guidance show the system
becoming a tropical storm tomorrow, and the official forecast is
basically an update of the previous one.

Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary
hazards with this system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely
through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is
possible near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is also
possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through
the end of the week. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood
threat into the weekend.

2. Tropical-storm force winds are expected along the Louisiana
coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 27.3N 97.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0600Z 27.9N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 17/1800Z 29.2N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 162050
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 97.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the coast of Louisiana from
Sabine Pass to Morgan City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.3 North, longitude 97.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of
days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight,
move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast on Wednesday and
move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and
could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is
anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back over land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near
20 inches, through Thursday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday and within the warning area on
Wednesday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible tonight and tomorrow from the
Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 162049
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
2100 UTC TUE JUN 16 2026

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 97.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 97.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 97.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 27.9N 96.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 29.2N 94.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 97.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 161758
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 97.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.1 North, longitude 97.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of
days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight
or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast
later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or
southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and
could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is
anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around
12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through
much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This
could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the
Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 161457
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days
across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has
moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful
convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of
the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds
will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus,
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One,
and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the
Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of
whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards
with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on
surface and radar data.

The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect
the low to continue moving in that general direction with some
increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow
associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps
it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore
late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the
latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus
HCCA.

The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much
intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to
land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to
the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective
support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is
anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the
model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will
likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the
upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the
rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible
across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through
Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the
weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is
expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with
isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the
Texas Coast and Louisiana.

2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical
storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast
through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from
Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 27.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 161456
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FROM
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 98.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern
Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 27.0 North, longitude 98.0 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next
couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas
coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper
Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme
eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become
a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on
Thursday after the system moves back on land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around
12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through
much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This
could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the
Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 161455
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
1500 UTC TUE JUN 16 2026

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 98.0W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 98.0W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 98.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 98.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE